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Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


War On Gold Heats Up As Global Markets Continue To Plunge

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:30 PM PST

from KingWorldNews:

Today the main factor influencing financial markets seems to be the anticipation of central bank actions. Historical market patterns have been radically altered over recent years. Since 2009 the Fed has reacted to every economic slowdown by introducing fresh easing measures, so that a paradoxical situation can be observed by now: disappointing macroeconomic data lead to price increases in stocks, as a continuation, respectively expansion of the QE program is priced in. Better than expected macroeconomic data on the other hand lead most of the time to price declines, as a reduction of future QE is anticipated.

Prior to the beginning of QE1, the historic correlation between the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the S&P 500 Index was 20%. Since 2009, this correlation has increased to 86%. The expansion of the money supply thus has had a bigger effect on the stock market than the trend of corporate profits. This relationship has been acknowledged by the Federal Reserve who argued in a study that, absent intervention by the central bank, the S&P 500 would be 50% lower.

Ronald Stoferle continues @ KingWorldNews.com

S&P lowers gold price assumption to $1,250/oz

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 09:40 PM PST

by Dorothy Kosich, MineWeb.com:

Standard & Poor's has lowered its gold price assumption by almost 10% for 2014-2016, but raised its price assumption for zinc by 10%-20% during the same period.

"By contrast, we are not changing our assumptions for copper, nickel or iron ore," said S&P analysts. "We expect favorable prices for copper and iron ore to persist over our forecast period, but our flat-to lower long-term assumptions incorporate the risk of incremental capacity over the next 18-24 months."

"Nickel, for its part, continues to suffer from oversupply over our forecast horizon, as do aluminum and zinc, but prices could get a lift over the next several years as potential supply reductions from marginal producers and the uncertain effects of Indonesian export restrictions affect inventories," they suggested.

Read More @ MineWeb.com

Bargain Bin Shopping in the Gold Market

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 09:00 PM PST

by Byron King, Daily Reckoning.com:

Two weeks ago Goldcorp (GG) announced a $2.6 billion hostile offer to take over Quebec-based Osisko Mining. Goldcorp, as you may know, is a large precious metal company with numerous mines. Osisko is a one-mine play, based on its Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec, built from the ground up (and down) since about 2005.

What's a good, productive, working gold mine worth? Is the market valuing these kind of things "right"?

Now's the time to take a look…

Read More @ DailyReckoning.com

Japanese Stocks In Freefall - TOPIX Plunges Almost 5% To 4-Month Lows; Nikkei Down 15% In 2014

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 08:46 PM PST

UPDATE: USDJPY has re-tumbled back below 101.00, recoupling with S&P 500 futures from the tried-and-failed attempt to ramp stocks overnight. It seems the short-JPY-driven carry traders have backed away from risk for now, no matter how much the BoJ primes the pump.

Nikkei futures are under 14,000 and down 15% from Dec 31st highs.

 

Despite the hope-driven exuberance exhibited immediately post the Abe/Kuroda show, the USDJPY-pumping stock-momentum fest has ended - abruptly. Japan's Nikkei 225 has lost all its gains and is now trading below US day-session lows (3-month lows) but it is the broader TOPIX index (more akin to the S&P 500) that is collapsing. Down almost 5% on the day (its biggest drop since the May collapse), the TOPIX is at 4-month lows. The TOPIX Real Estate index just hit a bear-market - down 20% from Dec 31st highs. Japanese sell-side shops are in full panic desparation mode as "suggestions" that a sub-14,000 Nikkei will prompt an acceleration of Japan's QQE money-printing idiocy. This is getting ugly fast.

TOPIX collapses to 4-month lows...

As Bloomberg notes, the sell-side is in full panic mode...

Japan's central bank will probably boost purchases of ETFs as early as this month if Nikkei 225 drops to about 14,000, Hidenao Miyajima, chief strategist at Parnassus Investment Strategies in Tokyo, says in interview.

 

But this won't help as the ramp in USDJPY is not helping...

 

and The TOPIX Real Estate Index is in Bear market territory - down 20% from Dec 31st highs... and 6 month lows...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Gold Sector in January: Most Hated Sector, Best Performer

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 08:40 PM PST

by Pater Tenebrarum, Acting-Man.com:

Rally Still Widely Doubted

Zerohedge recently published a year-to-date performance chart of different market sectors. The gold juniors ETF GDXJ tops the list with a rally of roughly 13% this year. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is in second place, closely followed by the XAU (Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index) in third place. Only ten out of 54 sectors have exhibited a positive performance so far this year.

However, this credible performance has failed to impress mainstream observers, possibly because gold itself hasn’t done all that much so far (although it is at the time of writing still up about $65 from its late December low). It is still not possible to find any gold bulls in the mainstream financial press. A smattering of headlines from late last week:

Read More @ Acting-Man.com

International Silver IRA / Gold IRA

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 07:53 PM PST

Goldsilver

Silver’s Rally Could Mean Another 1,000% Run

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 07:40 PM PST

by Peter Krauth, SilverBearCafe.com:

Let’s face it, 2013 was rough on silver.

The precious metal started out the year at $31, and ended at $19.50, continuing an overall slump dating back roughly to mid-2011.

That, however, obscures a massive run, like gold, that silver embarked on in 2001 when it was near $4, eventually topping out around $49 in April 2011. At its peak it generated a return of 1,091%.

Heading into 2014, I’ve pinpointed a number of key drivers – some often missed – that say silver may be poised for another spectacular run…

Read More @ SilverBearCafe.com

Economic Collapse 2014 -- The Economy Is Now Showing Signs Of Collapsing

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 07:08 PM PST

The Greek government needs the third bailout and it looks like they will get it Auto sales are in and they have declined in the month of January. Global manufacturing is down and the DOW slid 326 points today. The first month of 2014 the DOW has slid over 1000 points.The US postal service is...

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Spanish Suicides Rise To Eight-Year High

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:43 PM PST

Europe has an odd definition of recovery: we already knew that in Greece "recovery" means record high unemployment, an entire generation unable to find work, the return of neo-nazism, no ink with which to print tax forms, and even instances where people infect themselves with HIV to get medical benefits. That, and of course, soaring suicides. Now it is Spain's turn.

While the Iberian nation is furiously scrambling to catch up to Greece in terms of sheer economic collapse, even if the government has changed the definition of GDP so many times, somehow Spain dares to look people in the eye and claim its GDP is growing with 26% total, and 54% youth unemployment, one statistic Spain can't change is that the suicide rate has soared and is now the highest in eight years.

The Local reports, using figures from Spain's National Institute of Statistics that in the most recent data from 2012, released on Friday, 402,950 people died in Spain, some 15,039 (3.9 percent) more than in 2011. Of these deaths, there were 3539 suicides (2,724 men and 815 women), up 11.3 percent from the year before, a rate of 7.6  per 100,000 inhabitants. The figures were the highest since 2005.

According to official broadcaster RTVE, suicide was second only to cancer (15 percent of deaths) in the overall 25-34 age group, but the leading cause of death in young men (17.8 percent). Fatalities as a result of traffic accidents fell by 9.5 percent, to 1,915 - that's probably because so few young men and women can afford to buy a car. Or gas. Or both.

Finally in tangential news, a 21 percent spike in the death rate in February and March compared with the previous year was attributed to a late-breaking flu epidemic. The same period saw deaths as a result of respiratory failure rise 53.6 percent year-on-year.

So the next time you hear about the PIIGS much trumpeted "recovery" (which now is finished even before it started courtesy of the sharp relapse of the global economy courtesy of EMs, and in the case of Greece, quite literally based on the latest growth forecasts), think:

The Taliban Is Tapped-Out

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:11 PM PST

Afghanistan's insurgents have endured hard times before, but nothing quite like this. At first glance the war might seem to be turning in their favor. Hundreds of Taliban foot soldiers - the heart and soul of the armed struggle against the U.S.-backed Kabul government - are running out of food, money and ammunition. As Vocative reports, their plight is unlikely to improve anytime soon - people familiar with the Taliban's finances say the organization's main sources of revenue have dried up. Wealthy Arab donors, Afghan businessmen and even Pakistan's powerful and secretive spy agency have all reduced or stopped funding, each for their own reasons.

Via Vocativ,

Mullah Yaseen is penniless. Wrapped in a heavy black coat, the 45-year-old Afghan insurgent huddles inside a heatless tea shop near the Pakistani-Afghan border and pours out his troubles. Over the past eight months, he and his 15 Taliban fighters have received no support from the group's central command, Yaseen says. Not a bullet or a cent.

 

...

Yaseen needed to requisition supplies and ammunition for the fighting season ahead.

He had no luck. Instead, he was told that there were temporary cash-flow problems and he should ask his fellow villagers for a loan. He would be given the money to reimburse them within a month, he was promised. Back home, Yaseen scraped up roughly $2,000 to keep his men fighting. He has yet to be repaid, and his neighbors want the money.

 

...

Nevertheless, Mullah Yaseen and hundreds of Taliban foot soldiers like him—the heart and soul of the armed struggle against the U.S.-backed Kabul government—are running out of food, money and ammunition.

Their plight is unlikely to improve anytime soon. People familiar with the Taliban's finances say the organization's main sources of revenue have dried up. Wealthy Arab donors, Afghan businessmen and even Pakistan's powerful and secretive spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, have all reduced or stopped funding, each for their own reasons.

 

The Arabs' departure is a crippling blow. Support from private Saudi donors has been crucial to Afghanistan's insurgents ever since the war against the Soviets in the 1980s—many years before the rise of Mullah Mohammed Omar and his armed followers. But interest in Afghanistan has faded among hard-liners in the Gulf region. Osama bin Laden is dead; most of Al Qaeda's surviving operatives have fled the constant threat of U.S. drone attacks, and the Taliban never really shared bin Laden's desire to take his holy war worldwide. Now global jihad and its Arab backers have moved on to more promising arenas, like Iraq and Syria.

As the financial crisis continues, Afghan civilians say they aren't merely disappointed with the Taliban—they're fed up.

...

 

Many former contributors no longer trust the insurgents. "We don't regard the Taliban as soldiers of God anymore," says a conservative Afghan businessman in Peshawar.

 

"Their fundraisers used to come on foot to collect donations. Now they show up in luxury cars. It's clear they're stealing the money." A 40-year-old former Taliban commander echoes the complaint: "Instead of going to jihad, the donations are cruising down the streets of Peshawar, Quetta and Karachi."

The group isn't totally destitute...

According to an official with the Afghan National Security Council, the ISI continues to channel support to those insurgent leaders who reliably do Pakistan's bidding. But everyone else is on his own, and there are few viable alternatives. Local Taliban units used to drive a lucrative trade in ransom kidnapping, but they finally ran out of potential victims. Although the group still imposes "taxes" on the country's multibillion-dollar heroin industry, much of that money seems to end up filling private bank accounts, rather than helping fighters in the field.

 

...

 

The Taliban's finance department has a special office dedicated to resolving complaints, but it was no help. "They told me, 'Sorry, we don't have that much money right now.'"

Death is fine - but dying with a debt!! not acceptable...

He says he has left the front lines. As much as he wants to rejoin the jihad, he doesn't dare go back until he repays the $2,000 he owes his neighbors. He's not afraid to die, he says. What scares him is the idea that he might die with an outstanding loan. "Anytime I'm out there, I could be martyred," he says. "And God does not forgive anyone—even a martyr—who dies without paying his just debts."

Citi Fears The Emerging Market Volatility "May Just Be The Beginning"

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 05:35 PM PST

Via Citi FX Technicals,

Up the escalator, down the elevator shaft

The volatility in Local Markets which began in 2013 may just be beginning as much of the excess liquidity that went in search for yield may reverse course. During the next few months to few years, we would not be surprised to see even greater stress as the “Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen put” begins to fade and volatility returns to markets.

 

LatAm is coming under pressure with Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia all setting up for further losses. In CEEMEA, stress has been more selective with Turkey, South Africa, Russia and Hungary being the countries in focus for now.

 

While Asian Local Markets remain relatively calm compared to LatAm and CEEMEA, the ADXY Index is testing a major support level at 115. A monthly close below there would be concerning and suggest Asian currencies could come under significant pressure.

We can’t help but feel that the current pressure being felt in Local Market currencies and equity indices may only be starting. As we pointed out yesterday (and re-printed here), the backdrop over the last decade is very similar to that seen from 1989-1998 when:

1989-1991: US housing and Savings and Loan crisis: Fed eases aggressively as economy enters deep recession

 

1992-1994: Existing financial architecture in Europe (ERM) blows apart

 

1995-1998: European convergence trade in both FX and Bond spreads keeps European currencies relatively stable vis a vis the USD with a good rally in 1998. By 1996 BUBA has lowered the discount rate to 2.5% while US rates remain well below the pre-crisis highs of 9.75% in 1989.

The carry trade and capital flow into emerging markets (Asia in particular) is center stage:

March 1997: In a seemingly “innocuous” move the Fed “tinkers” by raising rates 25 basis points.

 

April 1997: Japan raises its consumption tax as USDJPY has rallied from a post Kobe Earthquake low of 79.7 to 127.50. USDJPY collapses to 111 by June

 

June 1997-Jan 1998: Severe reaction in Asian currencies as “hot money flees”

 

August-October 1998: Russia defaults, Long term capital folds and the Fed eases aggressively as the Equity market drops 22% (S&P)

History may not repeat…..but it sure RHYMES

In the years since the Financial Crisis, major Central Banks have been engaged in incredible easing programs that included the injection of massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system. That liquidity had to go somewhere, and in a search for yield, much of it went indiscriminately into Local Markets.

The announcement by the Fed in May 2013 that it would be looking to reduce its bond buying program was the first indication by a major Central Bank that the period of free money/excess liquidity was going to start winding down. The immediate reaction was panic and volatility across all “risk” assets, with Local Market currencies and equities being especially vulnerable. Soon after, though, markets began to adjust to the reality that this was the beginning of the end of the “Bernanke/Yellen put” (at least for now) and since then we have seen Local Markets come under pressure.

So far, the exodus of money from Local Markets has been “tame” compared to previous EM crises and it has also been selective since countries with weaker economies and foreign reserves have been the ones taking the largest hits. However, our bias is that this is just the beginning. We have only begun to see “volatile” price action and the charts in the following pages show just how far some of these Local Market currencies and equities can go. In focus for now is LatAm and select CEEMEA countries as they have come under the most pressure.

However, the bigger danger over the next few months/years is that the markets begin to ‘throw out the baby with the bathwater” and Local Market investors begin to exit through the same small door.

 

 

Though Asia Local Markets have been rather calm in comparison to other regions, we still think caution should be maintained

The ADXY Index is testing very good support at 115, the 55 month moving average, and a close below there on a monthly basis would be bearish. If seen, it would also be the first close below the 55 month moving average since 2008.

There is good support closely below there around 113.58-113.68, the 2012 and 2013 lows which also serve as the 76.4% retracement pivots of the 2011-2012 decline

A break below there would further suggest even larger losses are likely, potentially towards the 200 month moving average which is currently at 106.75 (there is support before there at 108.77, the 2010 low,that would be worth keeping an eye on).

It is important to note that 49% of the Index is made up by CNY and HKD. As we are not currently of the bias that these currencies would see significant (if any) depreciation even if the EM sell-off were to become more aggressive in Asia (as a reminder, during the major ADXY collapse in 2008, USDCNY and USDHKD remained essentially unchanged)

As a result, if we were to see a continued bearish development in the ADXY, it would suggest the other currencies in the Index (INR, IDR, KRW, MYR, PHP, SGD, TWD and THB) would see greater weakness then the overall weakness. We will be watching for any developments closely...

Perth Mint and U.S. Mint See Higher January Gold Sales

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 05:02 PM PST

Today's AM fix was USD 1,246.50, EUR 922.58 and GBP 762.39 per ounce.
Friday's AM fix was USD 1,246.50, EUR 920.54 and GBP 757.34 per ounce.

Gold rose $1.90 or 0.15% Friday to $1,244.90/oz. Silver fell $0.04 or
0.21% to $19.16/oz. Gold and silver were down 1.85% and 3.97% for the
week.

Gold is marginally lower in all major currencies today except
sterling which has weakened due to concerns that the Bank of England
will continue its ultra loose monetary policies. Gold ticked higher in
Asia prior to price falls.


Gold in U.S. Dollars - (Bloomberg)

Gold rose 3.2% in January, its first monthly advance in five, as
concerns about emerging markets and the Fed's tapering led to declines
in stock markets and safe haven buying.

Australia's Perth Mint, which refines most of the bullion from the
world's second-biggest producer, joined the U.S. Mint in reporting gold
demand climbed in January. Sales of coins and the increasingly popular
minted gold bars at the Perth Mint increased 10% to 64,818 ounces last
month from 58,944 ounces in December. The mint sold 912,388 ounces of
silver compared with 845,941 ounces in December, it said.

Sales of gold coins by the U.S. Mint rose 63% in January to the
highest since April. Sales climbed to 91,500 ounces from 56,000 ounces
in December, while sales of silver coins almost tripled to 4.78 million
ounces, the highest in a year, the data showed.

Part of the reason for the surge in demand is due to dealers
restocking inventories and due to collector demand for the newly minted
2014 coins.
 
Austria's Muenze Oesterreich AG is running 24 hours a day to meet a
surge in demand on behalf of investors - particularly in Germany which
continues to be Europe's largest buyer of gold.

Find out why Singapore is now one of the safest places in the world to store gold in our latest gold guide - Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

You Can Buy A House For One Dollar Or Less In Economically Depressed Cities All Over America

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 04:57 PM PST

Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog,

Would you like to buy a house for one dollar?  If someone came up to you on the street and asked you that question, you would probably respond by saying that it sounds too good to be true.  But this is actually happening in economically-depressed cities all over America.  Of course there are a number of reasons why you might want to think twice before buying any of these homes, and I will get into those reasons in just a little bit.  First, however, it is worth noting that many of the cities where these "free houses" are available were once some of the most prosperous cities in the entire country.  In fact, the city of Detroit once had the highest per capita income in the entire nation.  But as millions of good jobs have been shipped overseas, these once prosperous communities have degenerated into rotting, decaying hellholes.  Now homes that once housed thriving middle class families cannot even be given away.  This is happening all over America, and what we are witnessing right now is only just the beginning.

The photo that I have posted below was sent to me by a reader just the other day.  It is a photo of a house in Yakima, Washington that is apparently being given away for free.  At one time it was probably quite a lovely home, but now nobody seems to want it...

Free Home In Yakima, Washington

This piqued my curiosity, so I started doing some research and I discovered that homes all over the nation are being sold off for a dollar or less.  The following are just a few examples...

-Buffalo, New York: "The Urban Homestead Program that is offered by the City of Buffalo enables qualified buyers to purchase a home that has been deemed 'homestead eligible' for $1.00 and there are plenty of properties left. There are three main requirements when purchasing a homestead property; the owner must fix all code violations within 18 months, have immediate access to at least $5000, and live there for at least three years. You also have to cover the closing costs of the purchase."

-Gary, Indiana: "Officials say that a third of the houses in Gary are unoccupied, hollowed dwellings spread across a city that, like other former industrial powerhouses, has lost more than half its population in the last half-century.

While some of those homes will be demolished, Gary is exploring a more affordable way to lift its haggard tax base and reduce the excess of empty structures: sell them for $1."

-South Bend, Indiana: "How could you refuse this offer? The city of South Bend, Indiana wants to give this handsome circa-1851 Italianate farmhouse away to anyone willing to properly restore it. Aside from the boarded up windows (the boards are painted to look like real windows), the place is in pretty good shape, with a completely restored exterior, new roof, and all new HVAC, plumbing and electrical systems. All you'll need to do is restore the gutted (but clean as can be) interior."

-Detroit, Michigan: "Now that the motor city has effectively run out of gas and declared bankruptcy, some rather eye-popping deals are presenting themselves to first time home buyers who appreciate the challenge of a fixer-upper.

Hundreds of Detroit homes currently listed on Zillow have asking prices below $5,000, with at least one seller so desperate as to offer his house for just $1, ABC News reported."

-----

And guess who is selling more "one dollar homes" than anyone else?

If you guessed "the federal government" you would be correct.

Right now, the federal government is selling foreclosed homes to low income families all over the country for just one dollar...

HUD's Dollar Homes initiative helps local governments to foster housing opportunities for low to moderate income families and address specific community needs by offering them the opportunity to purchase qualified HUD-owned homes for $1 each.

 

Dollar Homes are single-family homes that are acquired by the Federal Housing Administration (which is part of HUD) as a result of foreclosure actions. Single-family properties are made available through the program whenever FHA is unable to sell the homes for six months.

 

By selling vacant homes for $1 after six months on the market, HUD makes it possible for communities to fix up the homes and put them to good use at a considerable savings.

Before you get too excited, there are a whole bunch of reasons why you wouldn't want to actually buy any of these one dollar homes.

First of all, most of them have been totally trashed.  Just to get them up to livable condition would take thousands of dollars in most cases.  Many of them are full of asbestos, and severe wiring and plumbing issues are quite common.

Secondly, you assume all of the liability for a home when you buy it.  So if a homeless person stumbles in and injures himself, you could be liable for his injuries.

Thirdly, many of these homes are in very high crime neighborhoods.  In some of these areas, people will literally rip up and carry away anything that is not bolted down.

Fourthly, property taxes are very high in many of these cities.  Local governments are desperate to get people into these homes so that they can get the taxes flowing again.  In many cases, what you would pay in taxes for a year is more than the true value of the home itself.

So, like I said, these homes are not the "great deal" that they may appear to be at first glance.

But that is not really the issue.

The real question is this: What is causing our communities to decay so dramatically?

And of course a big part of the answer is that the middle class in America is dying.

According to Time Magazine, one new report has discovered that nearly half the country is constantly living in a state of "persistent economic insecurity"...

But as evidenced by a report out Thursday from the Corporation for Enterprise Development, nearly half of Americans are living in a state of “persistent economic insecurity,” that makes it “difficult to look beyond immediate needs and plan for a more secure future.”

That same report also found that 56 percent of all Americans now have "subprime credit".

We are a nation that is losing our independence and sinking into poverty.

Right now, 49.2 percent of all Americans are receiving benefits from at least one government program, and the U.S. government has spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs over the past five years.

Millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas, the control freak bureaucrats that are running things are absolutely killing "the little guy", and poverty in the United States is exploding at a frightening pace.

Things are "changing" in this country, and not for the better.

One way that the death of the middle class is manifesting itself is in the death of shopping malls all over America.  The following is an excerpt from a recent Business Insider article...

All across America, once-vibrant shopping malls are boarded up and decaying.

 

Traffic-driving anchors like Sears and JCPenney are shutting down stores, and mall owners are having a hard time finding retailers large enough to replace them. With a fresh wave of closures on the horizon, the problem is set to accelerate, according to retail and real estate analysts.

According to that same article, one prominent retail analyst believes that we could see up to 50 percent of the shopping malls in America close within 20 years...

Within 15 to 20 years, retail consultant Howard Davidowitz expects as many as half of America's shopping malls to fail. He predicts that only upscale shopping centers with anchors like Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus will survive.

And did you catch that last part?  Only the shopping malls in wealthy areas will survive because the wealthy will be the only ones with enough money to support them.

For much more on this phenomenon, please see my previous article entitled "What Recovery? Sears And J.C. Penney Are DYING".

At this point, things have already gotten so bad that now even Wal-Mart is having trouble.  In fact, Wal-Mart is blaming the recent slowdown in sales on cuts to the federal food stamp program...

Wal-Mart announced today that cuts in a federal food stamp program as well as record cold temperatures hurt its fourth quarter profits.

 

After previously reporting “relatively flat” sales for the quarter, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. now says that sales for its namesake store and its Sam’s Club locations would be “slightly negative” for the November-January quarter, according to Agence France-Presse.

 

Wal-Mart’s Chief Financial Officer, Charles Holley, blamed the revised forecast on deeper-than-expected cuts to the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the extreme cold weather occurring in the past month.

This is how far the middle class in America has fallen.  So many people are now on food stamps that even a slight reduction in benefits has a huge impact on the largest retailer in the entire country.

And actually, many rural communities could end up losing their Wal-Mart stores in the years ahead as the economy continues to deteriorate.  In a recent CNBC article entitled "Time to close Wal-Mart stores? Analysts think so", it was suggested that Wal-Mart should close about 100 "underperforming" supercenters in rural locations around the nation.

We are rapidly becoming "two Americas".  In the "good America", the wealthy will still have plenty of retail stores to choose from within easy driving distance from their million dollar homes.

In the "bad America", which will include most of us, our shopping malls will be closing down and the rotting, decaying homes of our neighbors will be sold off for next to nothing.

So which America do you live in?

The Gold Price Shot Up $20.30 or 1.6 Percent to $1,260.40

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 04:21 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1260.40
Change : 20.30 or 1.64%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.389
Change : 0.284 or 1.49%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.006
Change : 0.096 or 0.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01538
Change : -0.000023 or -0.15%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1385.00
Change : 10.90 or 0.79%

Palladium Price Close Today : 702.50
Change : -0.50 or -0.07%

S&P 500 : 1,741.89
Change : -11.60 or -0.66%

Dow In GOLD$ : $252.13
Change : $ -6.62 or -2.56%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.197
Change : -0.320 or -2.56%

Dow in SILVER oz : 792.86
Change : -19.62 or -2.42%

Dow Industrial : 15,372.80
Change : -149.76 or -0.96%

US Dollar Index : 81.140
Change : -0.240 or -0.29%

Whoa. Stocks got whupped today with a big knobbly stick. Silver and GOLD PRICES reversed. My, my.

The GOLD PRICE shot up $20.30 to $1,260.4, higher by 1.6%. Silver gained 28.4 cents (1.5%) to 1938.9 cents.

But look closer. Friday gold made a tiny reversal by closing slightly higher than Thursday. Today it defended about the same low, then rocketed to the downtrend line and closed near there, above all its moving averages except the 200 DMA. That last is now at $1,317.29, and slowly turning up, a good sign, plus this two day upward tergiversation.

Gold prices have now thrice beat on the door of this downtrend line, and today's reversal begs the conclusion that it will pierce that line tomorrow or the next day. Twould be extremely bad taste if it didn't, not to mention weak. Ought to run up at least $100 or so.

The SILVER PRICE hath bounced off that support line left by December lows, and like gold, strengthened on Friday and closed higher today. All that said, silver remains below its 20 and 50 DMAs (now 1982c and 1977c). Must cross them, but more strategically, 2050c. All indicators pointing toward the sun today.

To escape the shadow of one last possible plunge to a new low, gold needs to close above this downtrend line from April and the resistance at $1,267.50, then jump higher to $1,361.80, the October high. How high could this rally carry gold? If the height of what I take to be an upside down head and shoulders reversal (Nov - Jan) measures the gain, then it should run at least to that $1,361.80 October high.

But first, confirmation by puncturing that downtrend line and support at $1,267.50.

Dow fell 326.05 (2.08%) to 15,372.80, below the 200 DMA (15,469.68). S&P500 lost 2.28% (40.7) to 1741.89. Too early to judge whether the January top was the ultimate -- another may come later in the year -- but for now stocks are headed firmly down, perhaps to 14,760-14,720, the September and October lows. A genuine waterfall today.

Today's stock weakness and metals strength drew the Dow measured in metals down.

Dow in gold sank 3.06% to 12.23 oz (G$252.82 gold dollars) and drew nearer the 200 dma (11.79 oz or G$243.72). It falleth ever nigher its long term downtrend line.

Dow in silver dropped 2.66% to 796.52 oz, well below the 816.54 50 DMA but still way above the 200 DMA (731.61). Rolling over, over, over.

US Dollar index fell today 24 basis points (0.3%) to 81.14, but like a pouty child still refuses to confirm any rally. Yen rose 1.04% to 99.04 and certainly is rallying. Euro at 1.3525 still looks sick as a snake-bit cur.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Shot Up $20.30 or 1.6 Percent to $1,260.40

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 04:21 PM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1260.40
Change : 20.30 or 1.64%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.389
Change : 0.284 or 1.49%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.006
Change : 0.096 or 0.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01538
Change : -0.000023 or -0.15%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1385.00
Change : 10.90 or 0.79%

Palladium Price Close Today : 702.50
Change : -0.50 or -0.07%

S&P 500 : 1,741.89
Change : -11.60 or -0.66%

Dow In GOLD$ : $252.13
Change : $ -6.62 or -2.56%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.197
Change : -0.320 or -2.56%

Dow in SILVER oz : 792.86
Change : -19.62 or -2.42%

Dow Industrial : 15,372.80
Change : -149.76 or -0.96%

US Dollar Index : 81.140
Change : -0.240 or -0.29%

Whoa. Stocks got whupped today with a big knobbly stick. Silver and GOLD PRICES reversed. My, my.

The GOLD PRICE shot up $20.30 to $1,260.4, higher by 1.6%. Silver gained 28.4 cents (1.5%) to 1938.9 cents.

But look closer. Friday gold made a tiny reversal by closing slightly higher than Thursday. Today it defended about the same low, then rocketed to the downtrend line and closed near there, above all its moving averages except the 200 DMA. That last is now at $1,317.29, and slowly turning up, a good sign, plus this two day upward tergiversation.

Gold prices have now thrice beat on the door of this downtrend line, and today's reversal begs the conclusion that it will pierce that line tomorrow or the next day. Twould be extremely bad taste if it didn't, not to mention weak. Ought to run up at least $100 or so.

The SILVER PRICE hath bounced off that support line left by December lows, and like gold, strengthened on Friday and closed higher today. All that said, silver remains below its 20 and 50 DMAs (now 1982c and 1977c). Must cross them, but more strategically, 2050c. All indicators pointing toward the sun today.

To escape the shadow of one last possible plunge to a new low, gold needs to close above this downtrend line from April and the resistance at $1,267.50, then jump higher to $1,361.80, the October high. How high could this rally carry gold? If the height of what I take to be an upside down head and shoulders reversal (Nov - Jan) measures the gain, then it should run at least to that $1,361.80 October high.

But first, confirmation by puncturing that downtrend line and support at $1,267.50.

Dow fell 326.05 (2.08%) to 15,372.80, below the 200 DMA (15,469.68). S&P500 lost 2.28% (40.7) to 1741.89. Too early to judge whether the January top was the ultimate -- another may come later in the year -- but for now stocks are headed firmly down, perhaps to 14,760-14,720, the September and October lows. A genuine waterfall today.

Today's stock weakness and metals strength drew the Dow measured in metals down.

Dow in gold sank 3.06% to 12.23 oz (G$252.82 gold dollars) and drew nearer the 200 dma (11.79 oz or G$243.72). It falleth ever nigher its long term downtrend line.

Dow in silver dropped 2.66% to 796.52 oz, well below the 816.54 50 DMA but still way above the 200 DMA (731.61). Rolling over, over, over.

US Dollar index fell today 24 basis points (0.3%) to 81.14, but like a pouty child still refuses to confirm any rally. Yen rose 1.04% to 99.04 and certainly is rallying. Euro at 1.3525 still looks sick as a snake-bit cur.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Don't pretend that the gold market is anything but central banking's most desperate project

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 03:11 PM PST

8:09p SRT Monday, February 3, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Perth Mint's Bron Suchecki today evaluates the prospects for gold bank runs in a fractional-reserve gold banking system. His commentary is headlined "Fractional Reserve Bullion Banking and Gold Bank Runs -- the Setup" and it's posted at his Internet site, Gold Chat, here:

http://goldchat.blogspot.com/2014/02/fractional-reserve-bullion-banking-...

Suchecki writes:

So a bullion bank's risk toward a run on its unallocated accounts depends on its:

-- Physical fractional reserves.

-- Extent of maturity transformation.

-- Credit-worthiness of unsecured counterparties.

-- Collateral and gold price exposure for secured counterparties.

He adds that bullion banks know that "you can't print gold" and suggests that, as a result of this knowledge, they proceed more responsibly than banks operating on a fractional-reserve basis in other respects.

But presumably bullion banks also know whether central banks or international organizations like the International Monetary Fund or Bank for International Settlements, to quote former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to Congress in July 1998, "stand ready to lend gold in increasing quantities should the price rise" --

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

-- and whether central banks are prepared, to use the sanitizing phrase of CPM Group's Jeff Christian, to provide "liquidity" to the gold market, a service that for some reason central banks don't yet seem ready to provide to the markets in soybeans, cotton, and pork bellies.

Suchecki's distinctions within bullion banking are all valid but they also are all completely subsidiary to the one great fact about the gold market: that central banks are its biggest participants and that, while they are nominally public institutions, they operate in the gold market largely in secret every day, directly or through their broker, the Bank for International Settlements, for policy purposes that are never explicitly explained. (Of course a little research can discern what those purposes are -- gold price suppression and support of government currencies and bonds.)

Bullion banks and gold-mining companies that hedge their production are merely the agents and playthings of central banks, as the great hedger Barrick Gold confessed in U.S. District Court in New Orleans as it tried to escape from Blanchard & Co.'s market-rigging lawsuit in 2003:

http://www.gata.org/node/1858

Suckechi is more or less off the hook here because a few days ago he called for transparency in the gold operations of central banks --

http://goldchat.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/central-bank-gold-reserves-trans...

-- something that will never happen because, as the staff of the International Monetary Fund explained in a secret memorandum in March 1999, transparency would explode the gold price suppression scheme:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

Even so, one shouldn't get or give the impression that the gold "market" is, for the time being, anything except central banking's most desperate project.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Embry - Global Markets Are Now Subject To Total Collapse

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 02:48 PM PST

With continued uncertainty around the globe, today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years, and whose business partner is billionaire Eric Sprott, warned King World News that global markets are now subject to “total collapse.”  John Embry also discussed the implications of what this means for investors around the world in his powerful KWN interview.

Embry:  I honestly believe

What Wll Happen In Coming Collapse? How Will Governments Try to Fix Things?

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 02:13 PM PST

Most people deal in the present, rarely questioning the future beyond what they consider to be the very next global_economic_crisisevent. The great majority of people…cannot imagine…a disastrous collapse as being in any way possible because surely, somehow, the governments of the world will fix things. The number of people whose eyes have been opened seems to be growing, however, and many of them are asking what the collapse will look like as it unfolds. What will the symptoms be? Here is how we see it.

So says Jeff Thomas (caseyresearch.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled A Glimpse into the Coming Collapse.

 [The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Thomas goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

Well, the primary events are fairly predictable. They would include:

  • major collapses in the bond and stock markets,
  • possible sudden deflation (primarily of assets),
  • followed by dramatic inflation, if not hyperinflation (primarily of commodities),
  • followed by a crash of several major currencies, particularly the euro and the US dollar.

The secondary events will be less certain, but likely:

  • increased unemployment,
  • currency controls,
  • protective tariffs,
  • severe depression,
  • etc.

Along the way there will be numerous surprises—actions taken by governments that may be as unprecedented as they would be unlawful. Why? Because, again, such actions are the norm when a government finds itself losing its grip over the people it perceives as its minions. Here are a few:

  • Travel Restrictions. This will begin with restrictions on foreign travel, including suspension/removal of passports. (This has begun in a small way in both the EU and US.) Later, travel restrictions will be extended within the boundaries of countries (highway checkpoints, etc.)
  • Confiscation of wealth. The EU has instituted the confiscation of bank accounts, which can be expected to become an international form of governmental theft. This does not automatically mean that other assets, such as precious metals and real estate will also be confiscated, but it does mean that the barrier for confiscation has been eliminated. There is therefore no reason to assume that any asset is safe from any government that approves theft through bail-ins.
  • Food Shortages. The food industry operates on very small profit margins and survives only as a result of quick payment of invoices. With dramatic inflation, marginal businesses (suppliers, wholesalers, and retailers) will fall by the wayside. The percentage of failing businesses will be dependent upon the duration and severity of the inflationary trend.
  • Squatters Rebellions. A dramatic increase in the number of home and business foreclosures will result in homelessness for anyone whose debt exceeds his ability to pay—even those who presently appear to be well-off. As numbers rise significantly, a new homeless class will be created amongst the former middle class. As they become more numerous, large scale ownership of property may give way to large scale “possession” of property.
  • Riots. These will likely happen spontaneously due to the above conditions, but if not, governments will create them to justify their desire for greater control of the masses.
  • Martial Law. The U.S. has already prepared for this, with the passing of the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which many interpret as declaring the U.S. to be a “battlefield.” The NDAA allows the suspension of habeas corpus, indefinite detention, and the assumption that any resident may be considered an enemy combatant. Similar legislation may be expected in other countries that perceive martial law as a solution to civil unrest.

The above list is a sampling of eventualities that, should they occur, will almost definitely come unannounced. As the decline unfolds, they will surely happen with greater frequency.

The value in projecting what the collapsing governments may do to their citizens is not merely an exercise in speculation. By anticipating the likelihood of any of the above, you would be well-advised to:

  1. spend time musing on the possibility of what you would do if any of the above events were to take place (and, again, these projections are not mere fancy; they are actions typically taken by governments as their declines play out)...
  2. assess whether they are developments that you feels you could live with and, if not,
  3. assess how much time you think you have before these events become a reality and to
  4. decide just what you might do to sidestep their impact on you.
[Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/a-glimpse-into-the-coming-collapse (© 2014 Casey Research, LLC, All rights reserved)

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The post What Wll Happen In Coming Collapse? How Will Governments Try to Fix Things? appeared first on munKNEE dot.com.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Baby It's Cold Outside

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 01:22 PM PST

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Baby It's Cold Outside

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 01:22 PM PST

Jesse Ventura, Matthew Mills -- The Alex Jones Show - Monday, February 03, 2014 (Full Show)

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 01:21 PM PST

On this Monday, February 3 edition of the Alex Jones Show, Alex breaks down the fraud of government security theater and the disappearance of civil duty as a concern for many Americans. Last night, a 30-year-old exposed the fallacy of the multi-million dollar Super Bowl security ring by...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold Bottom "Been & Gone"

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:45 PM PST

Gold mining stocks too, reckons this analyst. The bottom is in...
 
IT'S OFFICIAL, reckons Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth email.
 
Gold has bottomed. And gold mining stocks have, too.
 
Take a look. Gold and gold stocks have taken off this year, while the stock market has done nothing...
 
 
I think this move is legitimate. Gold bottomed in December. The bottom made total sense, for two major reasons:
  • Negativity toward gold literally couldn't get any worse.
  • Gold stocks reached a record discount to the price of gold.
Specifically, "precious-metals sentiment dropped close to zero" in December, my friend Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader wrote. (His scale is 0 to 100.) As far as investors were concerned, gold was as HATED as it gets.
 
When something can't get any more hated, it eventually gets less hated... and that's when you want to own it! That is where you can make real money.
 
Also, gold stocks were as CHEAP as they get... "Gold stocks are 48% undervalued" relative to the price of gold as of December 31, John Doody of theGold Stock Analyst newsletter wrote. (That's the biggest discount in history for gold stocks.)
 
I spoke with John on the phone a few weeks ago about this. He told me back then that "everyone who wanted to sell has now sold. Now is the time."
 
He was right. In my True Wealth newsletter, we stepped up. We bought gold stocks a few weeks ago.
 
And as you can see in the chart above, buying gold stocks a few weeks ago was the right call... We now have an UPTREND in gold stocks. (The "safe" play we made in my newsletter has actually outperformed gold stocks.) Gold and gold stocks are now beating the stock market.
 
Gold has bottomed. Gold stocks have bottomed.
 
And now we have our True Wealth "trifecta"... Gold stocks are CHEAP, HATED, and IN AN UPTREND.
 
We have everything we want to see in an investment right now. This is when you want to buy.
 
As John Doody said, "now is the time." I think he's right... The setup doesn't get any better than this.
 
Don't let this moment pass you by... Buy gold and gold stocks now...
 
For the safest trade, use a stop loss at recent lows... Otherwise, let 'er rip!

Gold Bottom "Been & Gone"

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:45 PM PST

Gold mining stocks too, reckons this analyst. The bottom is in...
 
IT'S OFFICIAL, reckons Steve Sjuggerud in his Daily Wealth email.
 
Gold has bottomed. And gold mining stocks have, too.
 
Take a look. Gold and gold stocks have taken off this year, while the stock market has done nothing...
 
 
I think this move is legitimate. Gold bottomed in December. The bottom made total sense, for two major reasons:
  • Negativity toward gold literally couldn't get any worse.
  • Gold stocks reached a record discount to the price of gold.
Specifically, "precious-metals sentiment dropped close to zero" in December, my friend Jason Goepfert of SentimenTrader wrote. (His scale is 0 to 100.) As far as investors were concerned, gold was as HATED as it gets.
 
When something can't get any more hated, it eventually gets less hated... and that's when you want to own it! That is where you can make real money.
 
Also, gold stocks were as CHEAP as they get... "Gold stocks are 48% undervalued" relative to the price of gold as of December 31, John Doody of theGold Stock Analyst newsletter wrote. (That's the biggest discount in history for gold stocks.)
 
I spoke with John on the phone a few weeks ago about this. He told me back then that "everyone who wanted to sell has now sold. Now is the time."
 
He was right. In my True Wealth newsletter, we stepped up. We bought gold stocks a few weeks ago.
 
And as you can see in the chart above, buying gold stocks a few weeks ago was the right call... We now have an UPTREND in gold stocks. (The "safe" play we made in my newsletter has actually outperformed gold stocks.) Gold and gold stocks are now beating the stock market.
 
Gold has bottomed. Gold stocks have bottomed.
 
And now we have our True Wealth "trifecta"... Gold stocks are CHEAP, HATED, and IN AN UPTREND.
 
We have everything we want to see in an investment right now. This is when you want to buy.
 
As John Doody said, "now is the time." I think he's right... The setup doesn't get any better than this.
 
Don't let this moment pass you by... Buy gold and gold stocks now...
 
For the safest trade, use a stop loss at recent lows... Otherwise, let 'er rip!

A Speculator's Dream in Junior Gold

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:40 PM PST

Junior gold miners were the #1 performing asset class in January. Yes, really...
 
IT'S HARDLY news that gold mining stocks have been in a slump for more than two years, writes Doug Hornig, senior editor at Doug Casey's research group.
 
Many investors who owned them have thrown in the towel by now, or are holding simply because a paper loss isn't a realized loss until you sell.
 
For contrarian speculators like Doug Casey and Rick Rule, though, it's the best of all scenarios. "Buy when blood is in the streets," Victorian investor Nathan Rothschild allegedly said. And buy they do, with both hands – because, they assert, there are definitive signs that things may be turning around.
 
So what's the deal with junior mining stocks, and who should invest in them? I'll give you several good reasons not to touch them with a 10-foot pole...and one why you maybe should.
 
First, you need to understand that junior gold miners are not buy-and-forget stocks. They are the most volatile securities in the world – "burning matches," as Doug calls them. To speculate in those stocks requires nerves of steel.
 
Let's take a look at the performance of the juniors since 2011. The ETF that tracks a basket of such stocks – Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) – took a savage beating. In early April of 2011, a share would have cost you $170. Today, you can pick one up for about $36...that's a decline of nearly 80%.
 
There are something like 3,000 small mining companies in the world today, and the vast majority of them are worthless, sitting on a few hundred acres of moose pasture and a pipe dream.
 
It's a very tough business. Small-cap exploration companies (the "juniors") are working year round looking for viable deposits. The question is not just if the gold is there, but if it can be extracted economically – and the probability is low. Even the ones that manage to find the goods and build a mine aren't in the clear yet: before they can pour the first bar, there are regulatory hurdles, rising costs of labor and machinery, and often vehement opposition from natives to deal with.
 
As the performance of junior mining stocks is closely correlated to that of gold, when the physical metal goes into a tailspin, gold mining shares follow suit. Only they tend to drop off faster and more deeply than physical gold.
 
Then why invest in them at all?
 
Because, as Casey chief metals & mining strategist Louis James likes to say, the downside is limited – all you can lose is 100% of your investment. The upside, on the other hand, is infinite.
 
In the rebound periods after downturns such as the one we're in, literal fortunes can be made; gains of 400-1,000% (and sometimes more) are not a rarity. It's a speculator's dream.
 
When speculating in junior miners, timing is crucial. Bear runs in the gold sector can last a long time – some of them will go on until the last faint-hearted investor has been flushed away and there's no one left to sell.
 
At that point they come roaring back. It happened in the late '70s, it happened several times in the '80s when gold itself pretty much went to sleep, and again in 2002 after a four-year retreat.
 
The most recent rally of 2009-'10 was breathtaking: Louis' International Speculator stocks, which had gotten hammered with the rest of the market, handed subscribers average gains of 401.8% – a level of return Joe the Investor never gets to see in his lifetime.
 
So where are we now in the cycle?
 
The present downturn, as noted, kicked off in the spring of 2011, and despite several mini-rallies, the overall trend has been down. Recently, though, the natural resource experts here at Casey Research and elsewhere have seen clear signs of an imminent turnaround.
 
For one thing, the price of gold itself has stabilized. After hitting its peak of $1921.50 in September of 2011, it fell back below $1190 twice last December. Since then, it hasn't tested those lows again and is trading about 6.5% higher today.
 
The demand for physical gold, especially from China, has been insatiable. The Austrian mint had to hire more employees and add a third eight-hour shift to the day in an attempt to keep up in its production of Philharmonic coins. "The market is very busy," a mint spokesperson said. "We can't meet the demand, even if we work overtime." Sales jumped 36% in 2013, compared to the year before.
 
Finally, the junior mining stocks have perked up again. In fact, for the first month of 2014, they turned in the best performance of any asset, as you can see here:
 
 
The writing's on the wall, say the pros, that the downturn won't last much longer – and when the junior miners start taking off again, there's no telling how high they could go.
 
To present the evidence and to discuss how to play the turning tides in the precious metals market, Casey Research is hosting a timely online video event titled Upturn Millionaires. Register to watch it here...

A Speculator's Dream in Junior Gold

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:40 PM PST

Junior gold miners were the #1 performing asset class in January. Yes, really...
 
IT'S HARDLY news that gold mining stocks have been in a slump for more than two years, writes Doug Hornig, senior editor at Doug Casey's research group.
 
Many investors who owned them have thrown in the towel by now, or are holding simply because a paper loss isn't a realized loss until you sell.
 
For contrarian speculators like Doug Casey and Rick Rule, though, it's the best of all scenarios. "Buy when blood is in the streets," Victorian investor Nathan Rothschild allegedly said. And buy they do, with both hands – because, they assert, there are definitive signs that things may be turning around.
 
So what's the deal with junior mining stocks, and who should invest in them? I'll give you several good reasons not to touch them with a 10-foot pole...and one why you maybe should.
 
First, you need to understand that junior gold miners are not buy-and-forget stocks. They are the most volatile securities in the world – "burning matches," as Doug calls them. To speculate in those stocks requires nerves of steel.
 
Let's take a look at the performance of the juniors since 2011. The ETF that tracks a basket of such stocks – Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) – took a savage beating. In early April of 2011, a share would have cost you $170. Today, you can pick one up for about $36...that's a decline of nearly 80%.
 
There are something like 3,000 small mining companies in the world today, and the vast majority of them are worthless, sitting on a few hundred acres of moose pasture and a pipe dream.
 
It's a very tough business. Small-cap exploration companies (the "juniors") are working year round looking for viable deposits. The question is not just if the gold is there, but if it can be extracted economically – and the probability is low. Even the ones that manage to find the goods and build a mine aren't in the clear yet: before they can pour the first bar, there are regulatory hurdles, rising costs of labor and machinery, and often vehement opposition from natives to deal with.
 
As the performance of junior mining stocks is closely correlated to that of gold, when the physical metal goes into a tailspin, gold mining shares follow suit. Only they tend to drop off faster and more deeply than physical gold.
 
Then why invest in them at all?
 
Because, as Casey chief metals & mining strategist Louis James likes to say, the downside is limited – all you can lose is 100% of your investment. The upside, on the other hand, is infinite.
 
In the rebound periods after downturns such as the one we're in, literal fortunes can be made; gains of 400-1,000% (and sometimes more) are not a rarity. It's a speculator's dream.
 
When speculating in junior miners, timing is crucial. Bear runs in the gold sector can last a long time – some of them will go on until the last faint-hearted investor has been flushed away and there's no one left to sell.
 
At that point they come roaring back. It happened in the late '70s, it happened several times in the '80s when gold itself pretty much went to sleep, and again in 2002 after a four-year retreat.
 
The most recent rally of 2009-'10 was breathtaking: Louis' International Speculator stocks, which had gotten hammered with the rest of the market, handed subscribers average gains of 401.8% – a level of return Joe the Investor never gets to see in his lifetime.
 
So where are we now in the cycle?
 
The present downturn, as noted, kicked off in the spring of 2011, and despite several mini-rallies, the overall trend has been down. Recently, though, the natural resource experts here at Casey Research and elsewhere have seen clear signs of an imminent turnaround.
 
For one thing, the price of gold itself has stabilized. After hitting its peak of $1921.50 in September of 2011, it fell back below $1190 twice last December. Since then, it hasn't tested those lows again and is trading about 6.5% higher today.
 
The demand for physical gold, especially from China, has been insatiable. The Austrian mint had to hire more employees and add a third eight-hour shift to the day in an attempt to keep up in its production of Philharmonic coins. "The market is very busy," a mint spokesperson said. "We can't meet the demand, even if we work overtime." Sales jumped 36% in 2013, compared to the year before.
 
Finally, the junior mining stocks have perked up again. In fact, for the first month of 2014, they turned in the best performance of any asset, as you can see here:
 
 
The writing's on the wall, say the pros, that the downturn won't last much longer – and when the junior miners start taking off again, there's no telling how high they could go.
 
To present the evidence and to discuss how to play the turning tides in the precious metals market, Casey Research is hosting a timely online video event titled Upturn Millionaires. Register to watch it here...

Celente - No Way Out As Global Ponzi Scheme Collapse Begins

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:29 PM PST

Today the man who remarkably predicted months ahead of time that the Fed would taper in December, then again in January, and who also predicted the global market plunge that we are now seeing, warned KWN that there is no way out this time for central planners as the global Ponzi scheme has now begun to collapse. He also discussed the incredible turmoil taking place around the world. Below is what Gerald Celente, founder of Trends Research and the man considered to be the top trends forecaster in the world, had to say in this remarkable interview.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Jim’s Mailbox

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 12:01 PM PST

Dear reader, Gold is often cited as a good hedge against inflation, but it would be more accurate to state that gold is a hedge against a devaluation. Sudden drops in the value of a currency are a nightmare for savers, but not for those owning physical gold. Gold stores value in an environment with... Read more »

The post Jim’s Mailbox appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset.

S&P and Gold: Extremes and Reversals

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 11:51 AM PST

Michael Lombardi has written many good articles about gold, the economy and the stock market. A few are listed below:

Why I'm So Cautious About 2014
Massive Shock Coming to the Gold Market Soon?
If Gold's A Bad Investment, Why…
January Indicator Points to a Terrible 2014 For Stocks

A few quotes from his articles:

"…central banks will be the major drivers of gold bullion prices going forward. Countries like China and Russia will need more of the yellow metal, because they simply do not have enough in their reserves compared to the United States, France, Germany, or Italy."

"The stock market looks like it's in big trouble. This shouldn't be a surprise to my readers; I have predicting this event for months.
"So far in 2014, and we are only three weeks into it, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed 709 points (4.3%). But I think the explosions for 2014 are just getting started."

"Why can't Germany get its gold back? Do Western central banks really have any gold left in their reserves or have they sold it all? And why is China, now the world's second-largest economy, buying so much gold? These are questions that lead me to one conclusion: gold prices should be a lot higher than they are today."

He has looked at the gold market and the stock market and commented on issues that are important for understanding our complicated financial world. He thinks it is time for reversals in both the gold and stock markets.

I agree with Michael Lombardi. The following are my comments – based on logic, my analysis, best estimates, and an unfortunate lack of central bank transparency and valid data on the gold in storage.

  • The U.S. stock market has been moving higher for a long time – largely driven by the Fed's easy money policy, zero interest ratepolicy, Quantitative Easing, and lots of hype. An important high probably occurred in December. Look out below! There is potentially a long way to fall.
  • Germany can't get its gold back because that gold has been sold and is no longer available to the NY Fed. Implications are ominous!
  • The NY Fed is unable or unwilling to "go into the market" and repurchase an equivalent quantity of gold and ship it to Germany.(The serial numbers on any new bars would not match those deposited at the Fed decades ago.)
  • Similarly, much or all of the remaining gold from other countries deposited at the NY Fed has probably been sold to "manage" gold prices in the global gold market.
  • Much of the United States government gold supposedly held at the NY Fed and at Fort Knox is probably also "missing." Read this very interesting article !
  • The U.S. government and the Fed are unlikely to admit any of the above.
  • Much of the gold that was previously vaulted in London, New York, and Fort Knox has been shipped to Switzerland, recast into 1 kilo bars, and shipped to China, India, Russia and the Middle East, where it is appreciated as real wealth. Do not expect that gold to return to the western countries.
  • Gold owned by Iraq and Libya was taken during their invasion and conquest. Where did it go?
  • Most of the above commentary regarding gold is, in my opinion, reasonable and logical, but essentially impossible to prove. In 50 years the public might be told the truth – long after it hardly matters.
  • Gold and silver probably made important double bottoms in December, along with a major high in the S&P. Look for big rallies in gold and silver and a rough year for the S&P.

The implications are important. In very simple terms we can view the world and invest based on option A or option B.

Option A: (Mainstream media view as I interpret it)

  • Our politicians and bankers are, of course, taking care of themselves at the expense of the people and are occasionally speaking the truth.
  • The gold is still in the vaults, there are good reasons for refusing to return Germany's gold and those reasons MUST stay hidden. There is also no NEED for a physical audit of gold held at Fort Knox or the NY Fed. (Move along folks… nothing to see here.)
  • The Fed must do what it does in secret – for valid but unstated reasons.
  • Quantitative Easing may not be ideal but it has been NECESSARY for the viability of banks and the economy. The stock market may experience a correction, but there is little cause for worry or concern.
  • It is time to watch the news and another episode of reality TV.
  • Take a pill and sleep well.

Option B: (Alternate media view as I interpret it)

  • Most of the United States and German government gold is gone, never to return.
  • China and Russia are amassing a huge quantity of gold to support their financial presence and strength in the world.
  • A world-wide monetary system reset is coming this decade.
  • The reset will benefit those countries that actually have gold.
  • The Fed is doing what is good for the banks and the politicians and is largely disinterested in the people of the world.
  • Quantitative Easing will eventually result in 1970s style consumer price inflation (or worse).
  • Gold will be priced (during this decade) in excess of $5,000 per ounce and will become part of a new international reserve currency after the dollar has been replaced. Read what Jim Sinclair has to say.
  • Buy gold and silver in anticipation of the inevitable financial reset, weakening dollar, and the rising prices for gold and silver.
  • Skip the pill, think, and educate yourself.

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

5 Signs Confirming It Is Time to Buy Gold

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 11:46 AM PST

Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I’m convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again.

Gold Is the Alternative to Non-Convertible Paper Money

If you’ve been a Casey reader for any length of time, you know why gold is a good long-term investment: central banks are expanding paper money to accommodate the deficits of profligate governments—but they can’t print gold. Since the beginning of the credit crisis, the world’s central banks have “invented” $10 trillion worth of new currencies. They are buying up government debt to drive interest rates down, to keep countries afloat. The best they can do is buy time, however, because creating even more debt does not solve a credit crisis.

Asia Is Accumulating Gold for Good Reason

Since 2010, China has been buying gold and not buying US Treasuries. China’s plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi.

In 2013, China imported over 1,000 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong alone, and it’s likely that as much gold came through other sources. For example, last year the UK shipped 1,400 tonnes of gold to Swiss refiners to recast London bars into forms appropriate for the Asian market.

china net imports january 2014 investing

China mines around 430 tonnes of gold per year, so the combination could be 2,430 tonnes of gold snatched up by China in 2013, or 85% of world output.

India was expected to import 900 tonnes of gold in 2013, but it may have fallen short because the Indian government has been taxing and restricting imports in a foolish attempt to support its weakening currency. Smugglers are having a field day with the hundred-dollar-per-ounce premiums.

Other central banks around the world are estimated to have bought at least 300 tonnes last year, and investors are buying bullion, coins, and jewelry in record numbers. Where is all that gold coming from?

COMEX and GLD ETF Inventories Are Down from the Demand

The COMEX futures market warehouses dropped 4 million ounces (over 100 tonnes) in 2013. The COMEX uses two classes of inventories: the narrower is called “registered” and is available for delivery on the exchange. There are other inventories that are not available for trading but are called “eligible.” I don’t think it’s as easy to get holders of eligible gold to allow for its conversion to registered to meet delivery as the name implies. Yes, that might occur, but only with a big jump in the price.

The chart below shows the record-low supply of registered COMEX gold.

 investing

Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest gold ETF, lost over 800 tonnes of gold to redemptions. At the same time, central banks have provided gold through leasing programs (but figures are not made public).

Why Has Gold Fallen $700 Since 2011?

In our distorted world of debt-ridden governments and demand from Asia, gold should continue rising. What’s going on?

The gold price quoted all day long comes from the futures exchanges. These exchanges provide leverage, so modest amounts can be used to make big profits. Big players can move markets—and the biggest player by far is JPMorgan (JPM).

For the first 11 months of 2013, JPM and its customers delivered 60% of all gold to the COMEX futures market exchange; that, surely, is a dominant position that could affect the market. By supplying so much gold, they are able to keep the price lower than it would otherwise be.

A key question is why a big bank would take positions that could drive gold lower. Answer: Banks gain by borrowing at zero rates. But the Federal Reserve can only continue its large quantitative easing programs that bring rates to zero if gold is not soaring, which would indicate weakness in the dollar and the need to tighten monetary policy. Voilà—we have a motive. Also, suppressing the price of gold supports the dollar as a reserve currency.

The chart below shows the month-by-month number of contracts that were either provided to the exchange or taken from the exchange by JPM. For a single firm, the numbers are large, but the effect across all gold markets is greater because so many gold transactions follow the price set in the paper futures market.

JP Morgan buying gold January 2014 investing

What jumps out from the chart above is the fact that while JPM had been selling gold into the futures market for most of the year, it made a major shift in December, absorbing 96% of all gold delivered.

That is a radical shift and, I believe, an indicator that JPM‘s policy has shifted. In my opinion, their deliveries of gold were suppressing the price during 2013, but now their policy has shifted in a way that will support gold going forward.

This leaves a vital question unanswered: Why? Has the motivation to suppress the price of gold gone away? Not likely, and we may never know the full truth of what is happening, but I suspect the main reason for the shift is that they have done their damage. The $740 drop from top to bottom, a 39% decline, has shaken confidence in gold as a financial “safe haven” among many investors, especially those new to precious metals. At the same time, continuing to lean on gold at this point could become very costly. JPM delivered $3 billion (about 2 million ounces of gold) into the market up to December in 2013, and may not have ready sources of gold to keep that up. It is dangerous to put on big short positions unless you have gold or some future gold deliveries as a hedge.

By now, everyone knows of the shortages in the gold market; JPM has to be as aware of that as the rest of us. It just isn’t safe for them to continue to lean on the market. Being aware, it looks like they are taking the bet that gold will rebound, so they could do well on the other side of the trade.

Another confirmation of the shift by big banks comes from data provided by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the net positions of the four biggest US banks in the futures market. There has been a dramatic change from being short the market to now being long.

big banks long gold January 2014 investing

Crisis Brewing in the Gold Market

Germany claims to hold 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, about half of which is held by foreign central banks. Over a year ago, they announced a plan to repatriate 674 tonnes of gold from France and the United States. The US said it would comply, but told the German government that it would have to wait seven years for all the gold to be delivered. The news out last week was that after a year, Germany had only obtained 37 tonnes of its gold—and only five of them were from the US. That is a trivial amount (only 160,000 ounces).

So why can’t Germany get its gold? Explanations of having to melt down existing gold and recast it just don’t make sense. The most logical conclusion, and the one I’ve come to, is that the United States simply doesn’t have the gold it says it has—neither Germany’s nor its own.

Of course, the US government isn’t going to admit that there’s a problem, but I say there is.

More evidence: JPMorgan’s COMEX warehouse contained 3.0 million ounces of gold in 2012, but that had dropped to 0.5 million ounces by mid-2013. Its registered inventories are a razor-thin 87,000 ounces. These kinds of swings are indicative of shortages and instability.

Further, JPMorgan sold its gold vault in New York City—located next to the Federal Reserve’s vault—to the Chinese. The banking giant also just announced the sale of its commodities trading business (although it may not have sold the precious metals part of that business). Perhaps they were concerned about new regulations of banks with deposit insurance from the government.

In another relevant development, Deutsche Bank recently surprised the gold community by quitting its position on the committee that sets the London a.m. and p.m. fixings. This came a few weeks after a German regulatory body called BaFin started investigating how these prices were set. BaFin also gave an indication that the process appeared worse than the LIBOR fixing scandal, which resulted in billions in fines.

Putting Inventories and Traders Together

The futures market looks fragile to me. The basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses.

The chart below gives a dramatic picture by simply dividing the open interest of all futures contracts by the registered inventories. The black line at the bottom shows the big jump in the ratio as the registered inventories declined. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold.

comx gold january 2014 investing

The futures markets operate on the expectation that only a few big traders will demand delivery. JPMorgan has shown that it is in a position to demand almost all (96%) of the gold for delivery. They are big enough that they could cause a collapse of the market, if they were to force delivery of more than is available. They know better than to do so, though, and I would guess that they will just manage to try to gain back what gold they have been delivering over the last several years. That should support the price of gold.

Gold Will Rise, and It’s on Sale Now

Now is the time to stake your claim in gold. In the long term, we know that paper money will become worthless; in the short term, the biggest seller has just shifted its actions to becoming a buyer. That makes this a good time to accumulate gold and gold mining stocks before a major shift upward in price.

Speaking of gold mining stocks: My Casey Report co-editor Doug Casey, as well as other famous gold speculators, are also convinced that a turnaround in the gold market may be upon us. If you haven’t yet, do yourself a favor and watch “Upturn Millionaires,” Casey’s online video event with eight well-known resource speculators and investment experts that premieres Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. EST. It’s free, so you just have to sign up to register.

Nu Yu’s Market SectorTA Weekly Update – 2nd Feb, 2014The Broad Stock Market is at a Critical Point

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 11:17 AM PST

As the stock markets of Russia, Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and UK went under water, the Wilshire 5000 index closed January on a negative note.  The January Barometer gives a cautious sign for the market in 2014. The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX) has breached the panic threshold and has surged up to 7-month high.  For last 5 trading days, the Wilshire 5000 index has chopped right above the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89).  The U.S. stock market is at a critical point to test if it holds above the EMA89 or breaks it down for immediately further decline.

Broad Market Instability Surged up to 7-Month High

The LWX (Leading Wave Index) is Nu Yu's proprietary leading indicator for US equity market. LWX>+1 indicates bullish (green); LWX< -1 indicates bearish (red); The LWX between +1 and -1 indicates neutral (yellow).

The LWX Indicator in Last Four Weeks (Actual)
Last 4 wks LWX 1-31-2014

The LWX Indicator in Next Four Weeks (Forecast)Next 4 wks LWX 1-31-2014

The Broad Market Instability Index (BIX), measured from over 8000 U.S. stocks, surged up and closed at 152 on 1/31/2014 (up from 74 the previous week) which is above the panic threshold level of 42 and indicates a bearish market.  The reading of 152 on the BIX is the highest level since June 25, 2013.  As the Wilshire 5000 index closed January on a negative note, the January Barometer gives a cautious sign for the market in 2014.  For last 5 trading days, the Wilshire 5000 index has chopped right above the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89).  The broad market is at a critical point to test if it holds above the EMA89 or breaks it down.  Based on the forecast of the Leading-Wave Index (LWX), the short-term time-window for the broad market should turn from bearish to neutral next week (see the second table above).  However, the bearish time-window may extend to 2/10/2014 if sell-off continues.  The daily chart below has the Wilshire 5000 index with both the BIX and the Momentum indicators.  The current market status is summarized as follows:

Short-Term Cycle: downward
Date of Next Cycle Low: 2/10/2014
Broad Market Instability Index (BIX): 152, above the panic threshold (bearish)
Momentum Indicator: negative (bearish)

W5000 1-31-2014

Long-Term Picture: Elliott Wave Count on S&P 500 Index

The following chart is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 index, with Elliott Wave count, in a five-year time span.  There are three degrees of waves: Primary, Intermediate, and Minor waves in this weekly chart.  The SPX currently is in primary wave [3], intermediate wave (4), and minor wave A.

A long-term price target for primary wave [3], projected at 1796 by using 0.618 extension of wave [1], has been reached.  Primary wave [3] currently is in an extension and it could extend to the next price target at 2063 based on 1.0 extension of wave [1].

Please note that primary wave [3] indicates a long-term bullish uptrend while intermediate wave (4), and minor wave A present bearish corrective waves in the intermediate-term and the short-term, respectively.

SPX Elliott Wave 1-31-2014 (Weekly)

Short-Term Picture: S&P 500 Index Forming Ascending Broadening Triangle

As shown in the daily chart below, after it broke down the 5-month-long ending diagonal, the S&P 500 index is forming a 3-month ascending broadening triangle pattern. This pattern could be a precursor for a roof pattern as projected by a descending dash line on the chart. Also the horizontal support line of the triangle could serve as a neckline for a potential Head-and-Shoulders Top if another shoulder (or a partial rising) develops at the right side.

The long awaited intermediate corrective wave (4) has just  started. It should contain a A-B-C structure for the minor waves. Minor wave A would have a five-wave structure with the minute waves.  Minute wave 1 should have developed. Now we wait to see where minute wave 2 ends.

According to Bulkowski's measure rule on downward breakouts of either rising wedges or ascending broadening triangles, a downside price target for the S&P 500 index is estimated around 1740.  But a full range decline may go down to 1640 because the correction could end in the area of the previous minor wave 4 in terms of Elliott Waves.

SPX Elliott Wave 1-31-2014 (Daily)

Sector Performance Ranking with Home Construction Sector Leading

The following table is the percentage change of sectors and major market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). The Wilshire 5000 index, as an average or a benchmark of the total market, is 0.76% above the EMA89. Outperforming sectors are Home Construction (10.44%), Biotech (8.53%), and Internet (5.76%).  Underperforming sectors are Energy (-2.70%), Consumer Goods (-2.62%), and Telecommunication (-2.14%).

A firm rebound of the U.S. treasury bond in January has been beneficial to those interest-rate-sensitive sectors such as Home Construction, Utilities, and Real Estate.

Sector 1-31-2014

Major Global Market Performance Ranking

The table below is the percentage change of major global stock market indexes against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently the Canadian and German markets are outperforming. The US, Indian, and Australian markets are neutral.   The Russian, Brizilian, Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and UK markets are under water.

Global Markets 1-31-2014

Gold in 15-Month Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern

The gold index is in a 15-month Descending Broadening Wedge pattern on the daily chart.  Inside this broadening wedge, gold is also forming a potential "W" or double bottom between July and December.  Currently the gold index retreated from the upper boundary of the broadening wedge.  Gold could become bullish if prices break above the upper boundary of the wedge.

GOLD 1-31-2014

Long-Term Picture: Silver in a 3-Year Falling Wedge Pattern

The silver index has formed a 3-year falling wedge pattern.  Although silver will remain bearish with range-bounded swings before a breakout from the wedge, a potential "W" or double bottom pattern in developing near $19 level could set up a potential bullish reversal.

Silver 1-31-2014 (Weekly)

Gold/Silver Mining Stocks Forming 10-Month Descending Triangle

Gold/silver mining stocks are forming a 10-month descending triangle pattern. They are neutral before they make a breakout from the triangle.

XAU HUI 1-31-2014

Crude Oil in 3-Month Trading Range

Crude oil is forming a 3-month trading range between 92 and 100.  Recently it has been in an upswing towards the upper boundary of the trading range. It is neutral before it break out of the trading range.

Oil 1-31-2014

US Dollar Forming 3-Month Ascending Triangle Pattern

The U.S. dollar is forming a 3-month ascending triangle pattern.  It should be neutral before it breaks out from the triangle. Last week the dollar was sharply up and approached the upper boundary of the triangle. Watch for a bullish breakout from the upper boundary of the triangle.  A bullish breakout of the triangle could make the dollar shoot up to 83.

USD 1-31-2014

US Treasury Bond in 7-Month Trading Range

The following chart is a daily chart of the 20-year U.S. treasury bond ETF.  It is forming a 7-month horizontal trading range between 101 and 108.  It also forms a potential "W" or double bottom pattern.  The treasury bond had a firm rebound in January, and outperformed other asset classes.  Currently it is testing the upper boundary of the trading range.

TLT 1-31-2014

Asset Class Performance Ranking with U.S. Treasury Bond Leading

The following table is the percentage change of each asset class (in ETFs) against the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA89). Currently U.S. treasury bond is outperforming and gold is underperforming.

Asset 1-31-2014

The post Nu Yu's Market SectorTA Weekly Update – 2nd Feb, 2014
The Broad Stock Market is at a Critical Point
appeared first on munKNEE dot.com.

Central bankers clueless, Embry says; Jansen finds China's master plan for gold

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:49 AM PST

3:50p SRT Monday, February 3, 2014

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management's John Embry today tells King World News that central bankers are now just experimenting with the world financial system and have little idea of what they're doing:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/2/3_Emb...

And gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen unearths and translates China's master plan for its gold market. The plan is posted at Jansen's Internet site, In Gold We Trust, here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/the-chinese-governements-gold-policy-from-th...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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The Keynesian Multiplier – Does it Exist?

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:27 AM PST

Dan Lieberman writes: Can someone clarify a significant economic and well accepted proposition that bothers me? The notion that the Keynesian multiplier means that “an exogenous increase in spending, such as an increase in government outlays, increases total spending by a multiple of that increase,” is troublesome. Is it possible to add one dollar to the money supply and magically turn it into more dollars? I don’t think this is possible. I believe economists have misinterpreted the multiplier. To me, it is not a multiplier. It is a divider.

3 Boring Billion-Dollar Ideas

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:25 AM PST

What do these 3 start-ups have in common?

  • Uber, a taxi company
  • Airbnb, a service that arranges short-term lodging
  • Nest, a maker of thermostats

Need a hint? It's a six-letter word for dull.

That's right, folks. Taxis, lodging and thermostats are BORING.

But these companies have something else in common, too.

They've already made their investors billions – or are about to.

Wait a minute… could "boring" be a good criterion for early-stage investing?

Let's take a look…

In October 2010, investors put $1.25 million into Uber, a taxi company.

At the time, the company was likely valued at about $5 million. Fast-forward 3 years and Uber was valued at a staggering $3.5 billion.

Based on those figures, early investors earned 55,000% in only three years. 550 times their money. That's enough to turn every $5,000 invested into $2.75 million.

By investing in a TAXI company.

Airbnb is a hospitality service. The "bnb" stands for "Bed & Breakfast."

For those willing to share their home in exchange for some income, Airbnb allows you to rent out your spare bedroom (or your whole place, without you in it) by the day, week or month.

In 2008, it was valued at about $1 million. This year, it was valued at $2.5 billion. That's a 250,000% return.

In 2010, a company called Nest was founded.

Nest is a thermostat. Yes, like the one you have at home – although, to be fair, this one is more beautifully designed.

Just 3 years later, Nest was acquired by Google for $3.2 billion. In cash.

Its early investors made a fortune.

How did these companies achieve billion-dollar success?

Step 1. They focused on a massive market – a market that's been around forever…

Taxis. Thermostats. Lodging.

Boring? Maybe. But think about the benefits of boring:

No need to spend millions of dollars proving there's demand; no need to spend years educating consumers about the value of your product.

Step 2. They applied technology to make an established market or business more efficient, more profitable, easier to use, or better to look at.

When my colleague Wayne Mulligan and I are searching for the next great early-stage company to invest in, we often talk about the importance of a huge market — and we're not put off by a huge market that, at first blush, looks boring.

In fact, we're thrilled by it.

There's gold in them boring hills.

A few weeks ago, we published a research report for you on a company called Abe's Market.

Abe's is a grocery store.

Yes, we know: some folks might think groceries are a little dull…

This isn't bio-tech, or virtual-reality glasses, or a new-fangled digital currency that's aiming to overtake the dollar.

But the fact is, groceries are one of the biggest businesses out there.

And Abe's is using technology (and some smarts) to attack one of the fastest-growing areas in groceries: the $100 billion market for natural foods and products.

We think it could turn into a great company – and just as importantly, a great investment.

If you're interested, you can read our analysis here.

Although Abe's is no longer accepting new investors, we're doing research now on several other companies that might produce big investment gains by attacking big old boring markets…

Stay tuned – we'll bring them right to your inbox.

Happy Investing!

Best Regards,

Matthew Milner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: In today’s issue of Tomorrow in Review, readers got a free chance to discover an entire portfolio of boring, but lucrative investments. If you’re not getting the FREE Tomorrow in Review email edition, you don’t know what you’re missing. Sign up for Tomorrow in Review, for FREE, right here.

Could Gold Surprise Investors in 2014?

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:21 AM PST

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: The demand for gold bullion is increasing. Each day there’s more evidence that suggests this phenomenon will continue. We see consumers buying gold bullion across the global economy. As a result, mints are working in overdrive mode to meet this demand and gold storage facilities are looking to add more vaults.

Channeling Kurt Richebacher…

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 10:16 AM PST

We recall, with pleasure, our old friend Dr. Kurt Richebächer:

"Ya…I don't know what has gone wrong with the anglo-saxons," he would say, tapping his silver-handled cane on the floor. "They seem to have gone crazy. Everyone one of them. They seem to have forgotten everything we learned about economics — about the need for stable currencies, the importance of capital formation, and the folly of central planning. And now they are ready to believe anything at all."

When Kurt died, several years ago, we inherited his favorite chair. It is a dark leather chair, with a curved seat, shaped like the trans-Atlantic deck chairs on ocean liners. Once you get in, it is hard to get out.

We sat in it last weekend and tried to channel Kurt. What would he have made of all this — the crash…the bailouts…the QEs…the Twists…? We wondered…we drank… And then, from nowhere, we heard his teutonic voice.

Ya…it's just like I thought it would be. They are doing just what I thought they would do. And it is unbelievable. It is as if they knew nothing…as if they had never opened a real economics book or thought for two minutes about how an economy actually works.

That's the trouble with you anglo-saxons. Your brains have been taken over by this Keynesian claptrap. It was claptrap…nonsense…nonsense on stilts…when it came out in the '30s. It is still nonsense. And yet, you anglo-saxons go along with it.

"Uh…Kurt," we protested. We don't like to correct a shade, but we thought we should set the record straight: "We're not Anglo-saxon…we're Irish."

Okay…I did not mean you personally. I mean the English-speaking world. The world of English-speaking economists. They are all charlatans. Imposters. Mountebanks.

Don't they see that you can't really cure a debt deflation by adding more debt? Of course, they do. But admitting it would mean throwing all their reputations…all their Nobel Prizes…and all their academic and government positions into the toilet. And that Ben Bernanke! He has the nerve to call himself an economist! He is nothing more than a con-artist…like the people running shell-games or flim-flam hustles in amusement parks.

It is so obvious what is wrong. The solution too is so obvious. Why can't they see it? There is too much debt. And too many assets…and too many businesses…and too many careers and family budgets now depend on this bad debt. It does no good to lend the debtor more money and pretend the debt is good. There is nothing to be done but to get rid of it…the sooner the better. That's what bear markets and corrections are supposed to do. So let them happen. People go broke. But so what? They're already broke. They just don't know it.

And then, if you want a real recovery, you have to put more real money in the hands of the people who can make it happen — families, entrepreneurs and businesspeople. Not the government! Good Lord, the government is a wealth consumer, not a wealth producer. If you want a genuine recovery…and not a phony, government-produced recovery….you have to let people keep their money so they can pay their bills, save, invest, and spend — whatever they want to do. You don't continue to take their money away…and waste it on government boondoggles. The worst thing you can do is to raise taxes…and let the government spend more money. Then you are poorer. Isn't that obvious? You either create wealth…by capital formation, investment and production. Or you consume it. The government is always a consumer, not a producer. What you should do is cut taxes…and cut government spending — including all the bailouts, contracts, and subsidies to private industry — even more. Then, you have balanced government budgets and more money in private hands. That's the real solution. But none of you anglo-saxon economists will even mention it… Instead, you have your phony 'growth' — which means more government spending. And your phony 'austerity,' which means tax increase and less private spending.

Ya, it's unbelievable.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: For more insightful commentary from the world’s best financial minds, you need to sign up for the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition. Today’s issue featured not only the above essay, but also expert analysis by Daily Reckoning co-founder Addison Wiggin, and 3 specific chances for readers to discover real, actionable investment opportunities. If you’re not getting The Daily Reckoning email edition, you’re only getting half the story. Sign up for FEE, right here.

ECONOMIC COLLAPSE 2014 -- Fiat Currency Printing, Inflation, Deflation, Gold Manipulation

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 09:52 AM PST

The markets were surprised when the Federal Reserve did not announce a tapering of the quantitative easing bond buying program at its September meeting. Indeed, its signal to the market that it was keeping interest rates low was welcome, but there may be a hidden agenda. The deregulation of...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Embry - Global Markets Are Now Subject To Total Collapse

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 09:29 AM PST

With continued uncertainty around the globe, today a man who has been involved in the financial markets for 50 years, and whose business partner is billionaire Eric Sprott, warned King World News that global markets are now subject to "total collapse." John Embry also discussed the implications of what this means for investors around the world in his powerful KWN interview.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Economic Collapse 2014 -- Current Economic Collapse News Brief

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 08:49 AM PST

In this news brief we will discuss the latest news on the economic collapse. We look to see if things are really that different. The central bank will not stop at just confiscating your wealth they will want your life. They want to enslave the people.

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Bargain Bin Shopping in the Gold Market

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 08:13 AM PST

Two weeks ago Goldcorp (GG) announced a $2.6 billion hostile offer to take over Quebec-based Osisko Mining. Goldcorp, as you may know, is a large precious metal company with numerous mines. Osisko is a one-mine play, based on its Canadian Malartic mine in Quebec, built from the ground up (and down) since about 2005.

What's a good, productive, working gold mine worth? Is the market valuing these kind of things "right"?

Now's the time to take a look…

Goldcorp's offer is more than the current market price for Osisko shares, but not much more. Specifically, the Goldcorp offer has run up Osisko shares to over $6.60, from a recent level well under $5. So Goldcorp is offering "more" than the recent market valuation for Osisko, and traders bid up Osisko shares to reflect that.

But the Goldcorp offer is, at root, a thin markup. It's fair to say that Goldcorp is bottom-fishing, attempting to hook a quality asset at a super-low price, in a relative sense. It fits into the current time, in which we've had to endure beaten-down mining plays.

From the Osisko standpoint, Goldcorp is not rewarding success…

Osisko management has recommended that shareholders reject the Goldcorp offer. Speaking at a conference in Toronto this week, Osisko CEO Sean Roosen characterized a Goldcorp takeover in highly negative terms.

Osisko is a "very entrepreneurial midtier [miner] that's been a top performer in the space," according to Roosen. If it gets taken over by Goldcorp, investors will "lose access" to a strong level of performance, without receiving significant upside for their risk tolerance.

"I think," said Roosen, "from an overall standpoint of investors, if you're going to invest in growth assets and they're going to trade at a zero premium at the end of the day, that doesn't really make a business model for portfolio managers."

In other words, per Roosen, development takes money, time and patience from investors. There are ups and downs in the mining cycle, and gold mining is not immune to this. Right now, we're in a "down" part of the cycle, due to (relatively) low gold prices after a long run-up. That, plus the rising costs of mine development over the past decade.

Patience, downswings, low prices… the story is all too common for anyone watching the mining space.

In the past year, we've seen a vicious market swoon for mining shares. Pretty much everything took a dive. Looking back, as recently as 2010, Osisko shares traded near $16. But by the end of 2013, Osisko shares traded under $5, even as the company successfully brought a significant new gold mine online. Less risk, more gold, lower share price. Doesn't make sense, except in a bizarre market.

Now with the "low" Goldcorp takeover offer, per Osisko CEO Roosen, we have an event that sets a tone to remove incentive for long-term investing in basic exploration, discovery and development. From the Osisko standpoint, Goldcorp is not rewarding success, and in fact appears to be punishing success with a lowball bid.

Now ask another set of questions, along the lines of whether it benefits Osisko to get taken out. Right now, as things stand, Osisko has an excellent balance sheet. Its Malartic mine generates positive cash flow. There's no need to raise further capital. Management has paid down debt in the past year. And in essence, there's nothing "encumbering" Osisko assets such that negative circumstances are driving a deal.

According to Roosen, the Malartic mine "on a stand-alone basis is quite capable of delivering superior shareholder value than what we're seeing [from Goldcorp]."

Goldcorp, of course, is looking for a bargain, and the share markets are offering up Osisko on a golden platter, so to speak. You can't blame Goldcorp management for "underpaying" to acquire something when the broad market is setting a negative tone.

Indeed, one of the problems with the mining space is that many miners paid "too much" for assets during the past 10 years or so, in a run-up environment with ever-rising gold prices. Consider Kinross (KGC) or Barrick Gold (ABX). These two companies overpaid for underperforming assets during the run-up. They're now holding distress sales of mines and other property to get rid of costly programs and raise whatever cash they can pick up.

So you can't fault Goldcorp for making a play for a great mining asset at a bargain. Still, I understand Roosen's pain. He and his Osisko team worked hard to build Osisko, and now they may wind up receiving a relatively low premium when the buyout comes. It's de-motivating.

One final thought… The relatively low share prices for gold miners reflect the relatively low price for gold in the past year. Then again, the "price" for gold is set by electronic trading. It's worth noting that nearly 100 gold contracts change hands for each physical ounce that actually backs up the market. Thus, the gold market is based on a very thin physical basis. In my view, it's set to melt-up when something goes wrong in the trading pits.

Yes, things in the world of gold may muddle along. Central banks do what they do (a taper here a taper there.) Politicians do what they do. Traders do what they do. But when something hits the wall with the dollar or other major currencies or "big" economics on a global scale? Then gold prices could soar. The value of gold-backed assets — like gold mines — could soar as well. Meanwhile, we watch and wait as events play out.

So what's a mine worth? Much more than a lowball bid, that's for sure.

That's all for now. Thanks for reading. Stay warm this week.

Best wishes…

Byron W. King
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. While we wait for the precious metals field to play out there is one sector that's been on an absolute skyrocket trajectory. And in a recent issue of the Daily Resource Hunter, I gave readers a chance to discover this sector for themselves. If want to get the most up-to-date info – including the ability to access to great profit opportunities like this – sign up for the FREE Daily Resource Hunter, right here.

This article originally appeared in Daily Resource Hunter

War On Gold Heats Up As Global Markets Continue To Plunge

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 08:00 AM PST

On the heels of continued volatile trading in global markets, today a man out of Europe who has been extremely accurate with his calls on the gold market sent King World News a fantastic piece which discusses how gold will trade and why we are seeing such enormous market volatility. It also includes a fantastic chart from Ronald-Peter Stoferle of Incrementum AG out of Lichtenstein.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Silver Moneys Historic Problem

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 07:30 AM PST

Bullion Vault

China Goes On Vacation, Gold Rally Stalls

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 07:11 AM PST

In contrast to the start of the year, safe haven buying failed to lift the gold price last week as international stock markets and precious metals both moved lower for the first time in 2014. Gold snapped a five-week string of gains and it now appears that the recent rally has run out of steam. The [...]

Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:47 AM PST

Dear Reader,

I've written many times about the foolishness of trying to time a market. The wisdom I've learned from Doug Casey and others is to focus on buying value while it's on sale, despite negative market sentiment, in order to "buy low and sell high." In other words, the need to be a contrarian in order to be a successful speculator.

But at some point in the development of a trend, you have to make a call, and the later you do so, the less valuable the call. There was not much use in saying in mid-2009 that our market had bottomed in late 2008, when that was clear to all.

And I have to say that it "feels" like December 2008 to me, the month I made some of my most profitable stock picks ever.

So, while it's not possible to prove that the bottom for gold is in, I'm willing to go on the record saying that I'm now convinced it is.

Whether I'm right or not doesn't actually matter; it's more important to focus on buying quality, undervalued stocks than to worry about the possibility of one more leg down before gold really breaks out upwards.

That said, I'd be embarrassed to end up in the chorus of "me too" analysts proclaiming the return of the golden bull months after it's obvious to everyone. So, here we are—I'm putting my stake in the ground.

While my view is certainly contrary to the mainstream, I'm not alone. Sharing my view are several of the presenters in our Upturn Millionaires broadcast, coming up in just two days. If you have not signed up for that, I urge you to do so now, as it's going to be a great show, full of insight and action-enabling information that I'm confident will lead to extraordinary profits in the not-too-distant future.

To whet your appetite—and make a very compelling case that confirms my gut feeling about the gold market—Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad has written a great article below. I hope you'll give his reasoning careful thought, and join us Wednesday for our Upturn Millionaires broadcast.

Sincerely,

Louis James
Senior Metals Investment Strategist
Casey Research

Rock & Stock Stats
Last
One Month Ago
One Year Ago
Gold 1,245.90 1,202.30 1,662.00
Silver 19.17 19.37 31.35
Copper 3.21 3.40 3.73
Oil 97.49 98.42 97.49
Gold Producers (GDX) 23.48 21.13 41.62
Gold Junior Stocks (GDXJ) 35.39 31.05 75.60
Silver Stocks (SIL) 12.04 11.20 20.68
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) 13.694.94 13,621.55 12,685.24
TSX Venture 951.32 931.97 1,221.71

Now Is the Time to Buy Gold

Bud Conrad, Chief Economist

Gold has been in a downturn for more than two years now, resulting in the lowest investor sentiment in many years. Hardcore goldbugs find no explanation in the big picture financial numbers of government deficits and money creation, which should be supportive to gold. I have an explanation for why gold has been down—and why that is about to reverse itself. I'm convinced that now is the best time to invest in gold again.

Gold Is the Alternative to Non-Convertible Paper Money

If you've been a Casey reader for any length of time, you know why gold is a good long-term investment: central banks are expanding paper money to accommodate the deficits of profligate governments—but they can't print gold. Since the beginning of the credit crisis, the world's central banks have "invented" $10 trillion worth of new currencies. They are buying up government debt to drive interest rates down, to keep countries afloat. The best they can do is buy time, however, because creating even more debt does not solve a credit crisis.

Asia Is Accumulating Gold for Good Reason

Since 2010, China has been buying gold and not buying US Treasuries. China's plan seems to be to acquire a total of 6,000 tonnes of gold to put its holdings on a par with developed countries and to elevate the international appeal of the renminbi.

In 2013, China imported over 1,000 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong alone, and it's likely that as much gold came through other sources. For example, last year the UK shipped 1,400 tonnes of gold to Swiss refiners to recast London bars into forms appropriate for the Asian market.

China mines around 430 tonnes of gold per year, so the combination could be 2,430 tonnes of gold snatched up by China in 2013, or 85% of world output.

India was expected to import 900 tonnes of gold in 2013, but it may have fallen short because the Indian government has been taxing and restricting imports in a foolish attempt to support its weakening currency. Smugglers are having a field day with the hundred-dollar-per-ounce premiums.

Other central banks around the world are estimated to have bought at least 300 tonnes last year, and investors are buying bullion, coins, and jewelry in record numbers. Where is all that gold coming from?

COMEX and GLD ETF Inventories Are Down from the Demand

The COMEX futures market warehouses dropped 4 million ounces (over 100 tonnes) in 2013. The COMEX uses two classes of inventories: the narrower is called "registered" and is available for delivery on the exchange. There are other inventories that are not available for trading but are called "eligible." I don't think it's as easy to get holders of eligible gold to allow for its conversion to registered to meet delivery as the name implies. Yes, that might occur, but only with a big jump in the price.

The chart below shows the record-low supply of registered COMEX gold.

Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest gold ETF, lost over 800 tonnes of gold to redemptions. At the same time, central banks have provided gold through leasing programs (but figures are not made public).

Why Has Gold Fallen $700 Since 2011?

In our distorted world of debt-ridden governments and demand from Asia, gold should continue rising. What's going on?

The gold price quoted all day long comes from the futures exchanges. These exchanges provide leverage, so modest amounts can be used to make big profits. Big players can move markets—and the biggest player by far is JPMorgan (JPM).

For the first 11 months of 2013, JPM and its customers delivered 60% of all gold to the COMEX futures market exchange; that, surely, is a dominant position that could affect the market. By supplying so much gold, they are able to keep the price lower than it would otherwise be.

A key question is why a big bank would take positions that could drive gold lower. Answer: Banks gain by borrowing at zero rates. But the Federal Reserve can only continue its large quantitative easing programs that bring rates to zero if gold is not soaring, which would indicate weakness in the dollar and the need to tighten monetary policy. Voilà—we have a motive. Also, suppressing the price of gold supports the dollar as a reserve currency.

The chart below shows the month-by-month number of contracts that were either provided to the exchange or taken from the exchange by JPM. For a single firm, the numbers are large, but the effect across all gold markets is greater because so many gold transactions follow the price set in the paper futures market.

What jumps out from the chart above is the fact that while JPM had been selling gold into the futures market for most of the year, it made a major shift in December, absorbing 96% of all gold delivered.

That is a radical shift and, I believe, an indicator that JPM's policy has shifted. In my opinion, their deliveries of gold were suppressing the price during 2013, but now their policy has shifted in a way that will support gold going forward.

This leaves a vital question unanswered: Why? Has the motivation to suppress the price of gold gone away? Not likely, and we may never know the full truth of what is happening, but I suspect the main reason for the shift is that they have done their damage. The $740 drop from top to bottom, a 39% decline, has shaken confidence in gold as a financial "safe haven" among many investors, especially those new to precious metals. At the same time, continuing to lean on gold at this point could become very costly. JPM delivered $3 billion (about 2 million ounces of gold) into the market up to December in 2013, and may not have ready sources of gold to keep that up. It is dangerous to put on big short positions unless you have gold or some future gold deliveries as a hedge.

By now, everyone knows of the shortages in the gold market; JPM has to be as aware of that as the rest of us. It just isn't safe for them to continue to lean on the market. Being aware, it looks like they are taking the bet that gold will rebound, so they could do well on the other side of the trade.

Another confirmation of the shift by big banks comes from data provided by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that shows the net positions of the four biggest US banks in the futures market. There has been a dramatic change from being short the market to now being long.

Crisis Brewing in the Gold Market

Germany claims to hold 3,390.6 tonnes of gold, about half of which is held by foreign central banks. Over a year ago, they announced a plan to repatriate 674 tonnes of gold from France and the United States. The US said it would comply, but told the German government that it would have to wait seven years for all the gold to be delivered. The news out last week was that after a year, Germany had only obtained 37 tonnes of its gold—and only five of them were from the US. That is a trivial amount (only 160,000 ounces).

So why can't Germany get its gold? Explanations of having to melt down existing gold and recast it just don't make sense. The most logical conclusion, and the one I've come to, is that the United States simply doesn't have the gold it says it has—neither Germany's nor its own.

Of course, the US government isn't going to admit that there's a problem, but I say there is.

More evidence: JPMorgan's COMEX warehouse contained 3.0 million ounces of gold in 2012, but that had dropped to 0.5 million ounces by mid-2013. Its registered inventories are a razor-thin 87,000 ounces. These kinds of swings are indicative of shortages and instability.

Further, JPMorgan sold its gold vault in New York City—located next to the Federal Reserve's vault—to the Chinese. The banking giant also just announced the sale of its commodities trading business (although it may not have sold the precious metals part of that business). Perhaps they were concerned about new regulations of banks with deposit insurance from the government.

In another relevant development, Deutsche Bank recently surprised the gold community by quitting its position on the committee that sets the London a.m. and p.m. fixings. This came a few weeks after a German regulatory body called BaFin started investigating how these prices were set. BaFin also gave an indication that the process appeared worse than the LIBOR fixing scandal, which resulted in billions in fines.

Putting Inventories and Traders Together

The futures market looks fragile to me. The basic problem is that there are many more transactions that could put a claim on gold than there is gold registered for delivery in the COMEX warehouses.

The chart below gives a dramatic picture by simply dividing the open interest of all futures contracts by the registered inventories. The black line at the bottom shows the big jump in the ratio as the registered inventories declined. There are 107 times more open-interest positions than there is registered gold.

The futures markets operate on the expectation that only a few big traders will demand delivery. JPMorgan has shown that it is in a position to demand almost all (96%) of the gold for delivery. They are big enough that they could cause a collapse of the market, if they were to force delivery of more than is available. They know better than to do so, though, and I would guess that they will just manage to try to gain back what gold they have been delivering over the last several years. That should support the price of gold.

Gold Will Rise, and It's on Sale Now

Now is the time to stake your claim in gold. In the long term, we know that paper money will become worthless; in the short term, the biggest seller has just shifted its actions to becoming a buyer. That makes this a good time to accumulate gold and gold mining stocks before a major shift upward in price.

Speaking of gold mining stocks: My Casey Report co-editor Doug Casey, as well as other famous gold speculators, are also convinced that a turnaround in the gold market may be upon us. If you haven't yet, do yourself a favor and watch "Upturn Millionaires," Casey's online video event with eight well-known resource speculators and investment experts that premieres Tuesday at 2:00 p.m. EST. It's free, so you just have to sign up to register.


Gold and Silver HEADLINES

Silver Shines at the Super Bowl (Silver Institute)

Did you know silver played a big part in yesterday's Super Bowl? The Vince Lombardi Trophy weighs seven pounds and is made from silver. Attendees were given a Warm Welcome Kit, which included "texting gloves" that have silver elements in the fingertips so wearers could still use their smartphones. Numerous other electronic and electrical components that contain silver were used to broadcast the game. Silver has proven virtually indispensable in almost all electronic devices.

"No Evidence" Gold Miners Are Returning to Hedging (Mining.com)

Last year, there was a lot of market chatter about a large-scale return to hedging by producers, as the price of gold retreated 28% over the course of the year. But the latest data from a new report by Société Générale and Thomson Reuters GFMS shows that is not the case. If fact, at end-September the outstanding global hedge book stood at 2.94 million ounces (92 tonnes), which is the lowest volume since they started reporting in 2002.

A total of 25 companies saw reductions to their positions, with the majority of these attributable to scheduled deliveries into maturing contracts, while new hedging was modest in scale, with the largest gains seen for Evolution Mining, Regis Resources, and Dundee Precious Metals, who collectively increased their hedge books by only 11 tonnes (350,000 ounces).

Massive hedging would imply that miners do not believe that prices for the asset they produce is likely to move upwards. That would indeed be alarming. Fortunately, the real numbers suggest that there is little evidence that producers are returning to large-scale hedging.

New Gold and Diamond Buyers Emerge at Dubai Shopping Festival (Mineweb)

Gold jewelers in Dubai reported the strongest gold sales in seven years. Over four million shoppers crowded the retail and jewelry outlets at the Dubai Shopping Festival. Indian expats and Indian tourists have taken the lead in the gold rush this year, while diamond jewelry counters have registered an increased number of buyers from China and from European tourists.

On average, 250 kilograms (8,000 ounces) of gold was sold daily in participating outlets in Dubai in the first three weekdays this year, as compared to 150 to 175 kilograms (5,000–5,500 ounces) in the same period last year. Since not all participating outlets have reported sales yet, the numbers could be much higher. Gold in physical form, including jewelry, experienced strong demand in Asia last year, and the beginning of this year shows elevated sales once again.

Which Gold

Gold Prices Edge Higher as Nikkei Drops 10% for 2014, Safe-Haven Demand "Lacks Follow Through"

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:35 AM PST

GOLD PRICES edged $5 higher to $1249 per ounce Monday morning in London, lagging a 0.6% rise in silver as world stock markets fell for the fourth day running.
 
Japan's Nikkei index ended Monday more than 10% below its start to last month, while India's Sensex lost 1.5% for the day.
 
The Borsa Istanbul rallied 0.4% but the Turkish Lira slipped again on the forex market.
 
Chinese markets stayed closed for the ongoing New Year holidays. But new data today put the country's manufacturing growth at a 6-month low, beneath analyst forecasts for January and close to stagnating.
 
Gold prices for UK investors rose 1.0% as the Pound fell suddenly to 2-week lows vs. the Dollar.
 
"Gold has benefitted from some degree of safe haven buying," says Jonathan Butler at Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi.
 
"Investors [have] moved out of emerging market currencies, which have been pummeled by tapering expectations in recent weeks."
 
After pumping a record $352 billion into US stock markets in 2013, investors last week pulled $2.6bn from emerging-market mutual funds, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper data.
 
But "In spite of the opportunity for gold to re-establish its safe haven role," says Swiss bank UBS, reviewing latest Commitment of Traders data from the US futures market, "[bullish traders] were clearly very reluctant to build positions" betting on higher gold prices.
 
"There has been no follow-through buying to augment the short-covering, with investors currently not fully convinced of the gold fear trade...[This] betrays the overall lack of interest in gold as an asset at the moment."
 
Greece, now defined as an "emerging market" by the MSCI index agency, is set to get a third bail-out from Euro currency-zone partners, reported Germany's Der Spiegel magazine on Saturday, citing a 5-page "position paper" leaked in Berlin.
 
Reputedly worth some €10-20bn, it would come on top of the €240bn already lent so far by the EU, IMF and Eurozone partners.
 
Gold prices for Euro investors rose to €927 per ounce, extending January's rise, the best monthly gain since July.

Gold price in a range of currencies since December 1978 XLS version

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:23 AM PST

Excel file of gold price charts and data - Updated weekly in 19 curriences: US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Indian rupee, Chinese renmimbi, Turkish lira, Saudi riyal, Indonesian rupiah, UAE dirham, Thai baht, Vietnamese dong, Egyptian pound, Korean won, Russian ruble, South African rand, Australian dollar

Economic Collapse 2014 -- Bankers STEAL From Greece, Gain Billions!

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:00 AM PST

 Greece is getting a third round of bailouts! I predicted this in my book word for word. The scheme must continue because it is robbery.The only thing criminals know how to do is to steal from hard working people. A bailout is theft. Germany preparing third financial rescue for GreeceFinance...

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Fractional reserve bullion banking and gold bank runs - the setup

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 06:00 AM PST

Perth Mint

Extent of Management ‘Skin in the Game’ & ‘Smart Money’ Involvement In Junior Miners Is CRUCIAL! Here’s Why

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 05:44 AM PST

 [The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]

Dejardins goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

When searching for opportunities in the junior sector, we like the focus to be on quantitative and empirical data…The most difficult aspect of a company to quantify is the management team. In a previous article, we highlighted one measure that we use called the General and Administrative Expense Ratio (G&A) which is one way of getting a glimpse as to how management puts shareholder money to work. In this article, we’ll first look at why management and institutional ownership are important. Then, we’ll break down our data to show what the average numbers are like throughout the entire exploration life cycle from green fields all the way to production.

‘Skin in the Game’

Incentive options and warrants have their place, but when we are looking at management ownership, we are talking specifically about common shares. How much capital has the management team taken out of their pockets and put directly into the company? This vested interest, or ‘skin in the game’, shows:

  1. how much the team believes in a project….and also is usually a sign
  2. that the company will respect shareholder dollars when making spending decisions.

If management has no skin in the game, they don’t care if the share structure gets diluted or if the stock gets rolled back again. They can just re-issue incentive options when it looks like they can make a quick buck.Using data from the 400+ precious metals companies we cover in Tickerscores, we took a look at the average common share ownership of companies. These average numbers are important benchmarks to consider when exploring buying opportunities in the market.

Quick note on the sample size: we used info on 413 companies based on Q2 financial data, and excluded majors from the analysis. These are mostly companies on the TSX and TSX-V.

Aside from the management team, another important ownership statistic we look at is institutional and fund ownership, which is what some would characterize as “the smart money”.

‘Smart Money’

In our analysis, we typically add both fund and institutional ownership together into one metric. This number represents the amount of shares of a company owned by funds or big financial institutions. Typically, this includes any ownership by banks, mutual funds, investment advisors, hedge funds, or similar firms. There are arguments towards both the pros and cons of fund ownership, but in the junior sector we mainly see it as a positive sign. The reason for this is that the junior sector is populated by many small and unproven companies. For a small junior to be backed by a sophisticated financial organization, it lends credibility.

If a respected group such as Sprott, Sentient Group, or KCR Fund (Katusa, Casey, and Rule) is buying shares of a company, this should be a signal to the retail crowd. It means that a sophisticated group has gone through extensive due diligence and is confident in the project and management team. These institutions and funds are big for a reason: they’ve made money in the past.

Here’s the frequency chart for institutional and fund ownership. Note: an astounding 23% of companies have no such ownership at all.

For both management and institutional/fund ownership, the above distributions are very broad and encompass all types of companies in many different jurisdictions.

To narrow it down and make the data more interesting, we’ve broken it up based on the exploration life cycle.

Not surprisingly, the average management ownership is highest when the shares are the cheapest (exploration) and the percentage is diluted as the company matures. Conversely, fund and institutional investment is at its lowest when the company is “riskiest” and increases as it gets closer to commercial production.

Let’s drill down even further and break each stage into smaller stages. For exploration, we’ll divide it into “Pre-drilling”, “0-30 drill holes”, and “30+ drill holes”. For development, we’ll break it into “NI 43-101 Technical Report”, “Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)”, and “Feasibility Study”. For producers, we’ll just group them as one category now.

Here are a few things worth noting.

  1. First, it looks like management ownership stays fairly constant through the development stage (11.2%, 10.1%, and 10.8% in Technical Report, PEA, and Feasibility sub-stages). This means as projects moves forward, on average, management is maintaining their interest. In contrast, the projects are now de-risked enough for funds and institutions to increase their ownership dramatically through those stages from 19.1% to 31.3%.
  2. Another interesting point is that the rate at which institutional and fund ownership increases stays constant from pre-drilling all the way to the PEA. However, as soon as the Feasibility Study is completed, the “smart money” buys in at an increased rate. It jumps by over 8% between these two stages.

There can be big differences within each stage. In this case, we compared small producers vs. medium producers….

Quick data note: we arbitrarily defined small producers as those companies in commercial production with quarterly production below 30,000 oz Au or 1,500,000 oz Ag. Medium producers were any that produced above those benchmarks (but are not considered majors).

[Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]

*http://www.tickerscores.com/blog/key-metrics-before-you-invest-skin-in-the-game-and-smart-money/ (If you haven’t already, hop over to Tickerscores.com as we have a free 14-day trial of our service available. It’ll give you access to all of our data that we used to compile this article.)

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The post Extent of Management ‘Skin in the Game’ & ‘Smart Money’ Involvement In Junior Miners Is CRUCIAL! Here’s Why appeared first on munKNEE dot.com.

Economic Collapse 2014 -- Rob Kirby: The Economy is Not in Recovery but Financial War

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 05:30 AM PST

Rob Kirby of KirbyAnalytics.com claims what is happening now in the economy is not recovery but "financial war." Kirby explains, "What we're witnessing and experiencing is a war between the keepers of the fiat system . . . and foreigners who have lost confidence in the U.S. dollar and...

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Randgold eyes acquisitions and higher gold production

Posted: 03 Feb 2014 03:23 AM PST

Chief executive tells the Telegraph that the African-focused gold miner won't "hesitate to take opportunities" for M&A in the current market
    




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