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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Fundamentals for Gold Unchanged as Economic Uncertainty Rises

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 02:01 PM PST

With fear and volatility gripping the financial world, many investors find it puzzling that gold—history’s most trusted safe-haven asset—has yet to rebound. Following the Fed’s taper pump-fake and Obama’s appointment of Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, the ingredients for higher gold prices are in place. What seems to be missing is positive investor sentiment.

In past musings, we have examined the Eastern world’s burning love affair with bullion by pointing to record-setting imports and sky-high premiums for physical product. The story is a little different in the West, where widespread skepticism has kept a lid on gold.

Gold ETF Outflows Slowing: A Signal of Change in Investor Sentiment?

As most of you are probably aware, 2013 has not exactly been a year that gold funds will want to remember. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are both down nearly 25% for the year. Along with the rest of the gold ETF bunch, GLD and IAU have bled assets profusely. Both funds rank among the top-ten worst-performing ETFs in terms of outflows. With that said, there are positive signs that the worst of the selling may be behind us.

According to ETF Securities, net outflows for gold ETFs slowed to $4.2 billion last quarter after redemptions hit $19.6 billion during the second quarter. Gold ETF holdings now stand at roughly 29 million ounces, which is on par with 2010 levels but well off the 43 million ounces held by gold funds at the end of 2012.

Does this significant slowdown in outflows mean that the weight of negative investor sentiment is lifting, bringing brighter days ahead for gold? Oliver Ludwig, managing editor of IndexUniverse, says it’s too early to tell as the wide swings in ETF outflows over the past two quarters indicate high levels of general uncertainty. On the other hand, Adam Koos, president of Libertas Wealth Management Group, is encouraged by the recent consolidation and possible bottoming of gold ETFs.

Others are less optimistic that outflows will dry up any time soon, although not for the reasons you’re probably thinking. According to Brien Lundin, president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, gold is fleeing ETFs and heading East as part of the ongoing evolution in the global marketplace. That being said, Lundin doesn’t see ETF redemptions as necessarily being supportive or negative for gold from the perspective of supply and demand.

Although the mainstream financial media would have you believe otherwise, gold ETFs represent but one component of global demand. Nonetheless, the paper gold market, which also includes gold futures, remains highly influential in establishing the spot price and thus shaping public perception. Ultimately, however, the fundamentals will win out, and there is little reason to think that gold will not flourish when the consequences of burgeoning debt levels and reckless currency debasement can no longer be kept at bay.

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You Call That A Crash?

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 02:00 PM PST

by Gary Gibson, Dollar Vigilante:

Bitcoin “crashed” over the last couple of days. Now it’s worth a mere 200 times what it was a few months ago. That hasn’t stopped the LA Times from strutting around and thumping its chest in triumph at how right they were to mock anyone thinking hoarding bitcoins was a good idea…

People who thought that bitcoins could serve as either an investment vehicle or an alternative world currency got their heads handed to them on Thursday and Friday. That’s when the price of the attention-grabbing crypto-currency got crushed, falling from a quoted $1,200 per “coin” to less than $600. At this writing, it’s quoted on the Mt. Gox exchange at about $830.

The whipsaw validates what we wrote about bitcoins just two weeks ago: they’re useful as a medium of transfer, but even then you have to be nimble. If you were a Greek or a Spaniard using bitcoins to move money out of your home country without having to worry too much about your local foreign exchange or banking rules, and you figured on Thursday that you could get around to transferring your asset back out of bitcoins and into dollars or sterling–whoops! You lost half your stake in a matter of hours. The minimum time required to complete a trade in bitcoins is ten minutes; that’s about how long you should hold them to keep exchange rate risk low.

Read More @ Dollar Vigilante

Caption Contest: If Gold Is Broken, They "Fix" It

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:31 PM PST

Much has been written recently about the rigged London "gold fixing" process, during which, as even Bloomberg recently covered, the price of gold is blatantly manipulated. One thing was, however, missing: a photo of the fixers in practice. Today, courtesy of German WiWo, we show just what said "fixing" looks like in real life every single day.

h/t @DrGideonGono

Gold & Silver COT Report: A Sentiment Shift By Speculators Is Needed

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:24 PM PST

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a unique situation related to precious metals. The current setting shows some extremes which are comparable to the situation in June, when gold bottomed at $1,180 and silver at $18,50. In this article, we provide the thoughts of Dan Norcini about the gold and silver COT report. He also discusses the short and mid term outlook for gold and silver. Norcini is a professional futures trader for decades but is also a sound money enthusiast.

Mind that the COT report of Friday December 6th reflects the futures positions till Tuesday 3d (which excludes the violent price action of the last days of past week).

Gold Commitment of Traders report

The latest gold report shows that hedge funds have been adding to their short positions while their long positions have been steady in the last few weeks. They clearly play gold from the short side.

Hedge fungs still remain net long the gold market which they have done since mid 2006 (i.e. the inception of precious metals COT reporting). Their overall net long position is the smallest since January 2007. In other words: hedge funds have not been this bearish on the prospects for gold in nearly SEVEN YEARS!

Gold hedge funds June November 2013 category technicals

Dan Norcini writes: “One could perhaps make a contrarian argument based on that fact but even contrarian arguments need a fundamental spark to turn sentiment. Unless sentiment towards gold changes for some reason, these speculators will continue to sell the metal into rallies as they play more for the gains in equities that can be had versus tying up investor capital in an asset that is not throwing off any gains whatsoever right now.”

The following chart shows all positions in the overall COT report. Note the area within the ellipse. There is a continuation of the recent trend of overall net buying by the Commercials who have decidedly moved into a net long exposure to the gold market.

Gold COT 2006 November 2013 category technicals

The interesting thing is the little guys or small specs. They are net long, but ever so slightly! this report shows them with a combined futures and option position of 16 contracts on the net long basis! The last time they were actually net short this market was back during the same time frame that the spike low at $1180 occurred this past summer.

Swap Dealers are also buying on a net basis as they continue to reduce their overall net short position but they remain rather sizeable on the short side of the market. Some of them are probably working hedges against custom made contracts for some mining company hedges.

This is the summary of the picture in gold COT: speculators overall remain net long the gold market but continue to abandon the metal in favor of stocks, the Producer/User/Merchant/Processor category is now net long with Swap dealers still net short (the short interest in the market is being held by this group).

Some observers seem to be interested with what the Commercial category is doing. Dan Norcini is far more interested in what the SPECULATORS are doing. He writes:

“Speculators drive markets, not commercials. The fact that they are still net long overall concerns me in the sense that while bullishness towards gold is certainly on the wane, we have not yet seen a DISGUST with the metal that tends to make capitulation phases. Too many speak of capitulation in gold. How can that be when speculators remain as NET LONGS?”

It may not seem probable right now, given the backdrop of massive QE, but I wonder whether or not we will actually see the hedge fund category move to a net short position in gold as they did in silver. I certainly hope not as a long term proponent of honest money but I rule out nothing in this environment.

Silver Commitment of Traders report

In silver, the important position according to Dan Norcini is the yellow ellipse on the following chart. It is the hedge funds’ NET POSITION. Hedge funds now have the largest net short position in the history of the disaggregated COT report.

Silver COT 2006 November 2013 category technicals

Norcini says that these big and powerful speculators are what drive our markets. They continue to sell silver rallies. Either they are going to have to be forced out by some concerted buying or the path of least resistance in silver is lower.

From a technical standpoint, an upside violation of key overhead chart resistance levels is required to break the downtrend. According to Norcini’s technical analysis, it is just above the $21 level (extend towards $21.25) where the bears would get concerned. If the bulls can take prices up to those levels, and NOT FALTER, they will spark some serious short covering.

Until then, silver rallies are likely to be sold.

Bottom line: when will the downterm trend be shifting?

The key question is what will change Western speculators’ view vis-à-vis the precious metals. According to Norcini, sentiment in regards to inflation fears / confidence in the Dollar must shift for gold to attract eager Western-based buying. Also the Velocity of Money needs to increase and wages begin to actually rise instead of remaining stagnant. “I think we will see when Western-based demand for gold resurfaces when/if the reported gold holdings in those gold ETF’s stop declining and start rising.”

Besides, it will take a definite shift in sentiment away from the current “economic growth is steady but slow” sentiment towards one of “economic growth is picking up speed and is increasing” in order to run these hedge funds out of their profitable short positions.

Source: Dan Norcini’s personal blog.

Record shorts fail to push gold to new lows

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:20 PM PST

by Alasdair Macleod, Gold Money:

This week has seen a mighty struggle as the bears tried to push the gold price below the $1200 level. However on both occasions the price rallied strongly afterwards.

On Comex, Managed Funds’ short positions have suddenly escalated reflecting negative mainstream opinion as shown in the following chart:

The next chart shows the net position of the largest four traders, who we can assume are US bullion banks, and are unusually net long over 60,000 contracts. They are obviously choosing to maintain a long position:

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:16 PM PST

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:16 PM PST

PMs Surge As Stocks Slumber On Dow's Lowest Range In 16 Months

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:08 PM PST

Following Friday's exuberance, US equity markets traded in an extraordinarily narrow range today (Dow's 41 points is lowest in 16 months) as S&P futures had the lowest non-holiday volume day of the year - despite plethora of Fed talking heads. Treasuries were no less un-vibrant with a 2bp range ending with the short-end very modestly higher in yield and long-end -1bps. The USD closed lower with its only sizable move driven by Bullard's dovish comments on inflation credibility; most notably US equities ignored JPY crosses efforts to ignite momentum. VIX closed down modestly (and back to inverted). The big movers on the day were in commodity-land. WTI dipped but Brent was slammed as the spread dropped notably to 6-week lows. Gold (and even more so Silver) were the big winners (relatively speaking) ending the day +1 and +2.2% respectively.

 

The Dow saw its smallest intraday range in 16 months...

 

Silver jumped over 2% on the day and gold lifted over $1240...

 

The crude complex was busy with WTI trading down but Brent hammered - narrowing the spread to $11.70

no matter how hard they tried - EURJPY coul dnot bring stocks higher this afternoon...

 

as FX markets were dominated by German macro data and the Bullard comments this afternoon...

 

And again - for clarity from the NFP print... some context

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Gold 2014 Up 70% or Stocks Down 40%?

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:04 PM PST

As we to prepare for the arrival of a new year, 2014 for those not keeping track, we should take time to consider reality. One part of that is to reconsider some well grounded advice: Past performance does not predict future performance. 2013 has clearly been the year of the equity fantasy, and one not enjoyable for Gold investors. An investment world focused on TWTR and bitcoins is one in which the Greater Fool Theory again dominates. With year end rapidly approaching, now is the time to consider what the numbers tell us, not the investment hype popular in the media.

Gold ETF Selling Continue, Futures Bearishness Marks "Possible Turn in Sentiment"

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:00 PM PST

The PRICE of wholesale gold held steady around $1230 per ounce in London trade Monday morning, ticking upwards as European shares slipped but Asian stock markets closed higher after strong data from China. The Euro rose to 6-week highs vs. the Dollar on the FX market, capping gold priced in the single currency beneath €900 per ounce.

India Gold Price Premium at 23.2%, Equivalent US $1514

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:39 PM PST

India Gold Price Premium at 23.2%, Equivalent US $1514

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:39 PM PST

Gold Likely To Bottom Within One To Seven Months

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 11:58 AM PST

In his latest newsletter update, Louis James, Senior Metals Investment Strategist at Casey Research, explains how Doug Casey usually says that it’s a big mistake to make a prediction that includes both an event and a time. Still, sometimes he does exactly that but he adds it is “for entertainment purposes only.”

Recently, Doug Casey has made such a “mistake” by predicting both an event and a time of the precious metals bottom. He said:

I think it will be clear to most investors that the precious metals correction is over and the second half of this record-smashing gold bull market is under way well before the end of 2014.

This prediction is line with the one from Krassimir Petrov. Krassimir is an Austrian School professor of economics from Bulgaria who currently lives in Thailand. The last time Louis James talked to Krassimir, he predicted the timing of the current gold bull cycle more accurately than Doug Casey.

The talk with Krassimir is a quick read with important ideas and insights. The bottom line of Krassimir’s thoughts are summarized in the following quote. Readers who would be interested to read the whole interview here can do so after subscribing at Casey’s website.

Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That’s early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.

Krassimir appears to be convinced that the actual Mania Phase in gold (a period of time characterized by the investing herd throwing itself head-first into the gold market, or a time when your cab driver comes with gold stock tips) is still at least six to eight years away. “While that may be somewhat disappointing to us gold investors waiting for our big rewards, it isn't bad at all, because we’ll make plenty of money on the ramp up before the Mania Phase, just as we did in the first half of this epic bull market.”

Louis James still believes it’s impossible to predict the exact bottom of a market correction. However, given that cashed-up, high-grade exploration plays and profitable producers are already deeply discounted, now is the time to take positions as the market is still down. Besides, tax-loss selling which prevails in November and December should provide spectacular buying opportunities in the best of the best stock picks in the sector.

Buy what others are selling.

PS: Doug Casey just released his new book Right on the Money in which he shows how to apply the “buy low, sell high” formula.

El-Erian Blasts America's Partisan Peril

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 11:46 AM PST

Authored by Mohamed El-Erian, originally posted at Project Syndicate,

The United States’ reputation for sound economic policymaking took a beating in 2013. Some of this was warranted; some of it was not. And now a related distorted narrative – one that in 2014 could needlessly undermine policies that are key to improving America’s economic recovery – is gaining traction.

The 2008 global financial crisis left the US economy mired in a low-level equilibrium, characterized by sluggish job creation, persistently high long-term and youth unemployment, and growing inequalities of income, wealth, and opportunity. Many Americans started 2013 with high hopes that congressional leaders would overcome, even if only partly, the polarization and political dysfunction that had slowed recovery.

Expectations of less political turbulence were enhanced at the start of 2013 by a bipartisan agreement that avoided the so-called fiscal cliff (though at the last minute and with much rancor) and a deal reached later in January to raise the debt ceiling (albeit temporarily). With expectations of less political brinkmanship and lower policy uncertainty ahead, consensus projections foresaw faster, more inclusive economic growth.

In turn, faster growth was expected to revitalize the labor market, counteract worsening income inequality, mollify concerns about debt and deficit levels, and enable the Federal Reserve to start normalizing monetary policy in an orderly fashion. It would also facilitate a return by Congress to more normal economic governance – whether passing an annual budget, something not accomplished in four years, or finally taking steps to enhance rather than impede growth and job creation.

But optimism foundered over the course of 2013, and frustration soared.

Growth has again fallen short of expectations. With another year of uneven job creation, the problems associated with long-term and youth unemployment have become more deeply embedded in the economy’s structure. Inequalities remain too high, and continue to grow. Congressional paralysis has reached levels unparalleled in recent history. And, again, lawmakers have not enacted an annual budget.

This is not to say that there has been no economic or financial progress in 2013. After all, economic growth, while unnecessarily held below potential by Congress (and vulnerable to decline if Congress is not careful), has again outpaced that of Europe. The budget deficit has fallen markedly, while companies and households, too, have continued to strengthen their balance sheets. Many segments of the equities market have bounced back strongly, with price indexes hitting record highs. And Americans are on the verge of obtaining much better access to health care.

What is frustrating is that the country could have – and should have – done a lot better. Recognizing this, Americans are not hesitant to blame a Congress that seems more eager to manufacture problems than to enable the economy to reach its considerable potential.

Rather than building on some of the fledgling bipartisanship from earlier in the year, Congress decided to produce a mid-year government-financing drama. Even immigration reform – a bipartisan pro-growth issue with considerable support from much of American society – has languished unnecessarily. More broadly, Congress took no significant action to avoid headwinds that impose a drag on growth and discourage companies and individuals from investing in their future.

According to a survey based on data from the Office of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives, the current 113th Congress has delivered the lowest legislative activity “since at least 1947, when the data collection began.” And Americans know it. According to Gallop, the 9% approval rating for Congress is the lowest level in the survey’s 39-year history.

Partisan polarization in Congress has also undermined the executive branch, unduly blocking government appointments – including routine and essentially uncontroversial ones – and placing unwarranted obstacles in the way of implementing even the most sensible and seemingly bipartisan legislative proposals. The resulting sense of political drift and dysfunction has been exacerbated by the poor rollout of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) – a massive, avoidable distraction that has been allowed to cast doubt on this landmark initiative.

Yes, 2013 was not a good year for public-sector decision-making, especially given that most of the slippages were “own goals.” In the process, the US damaged the reputation for effective economic management that it had earned during the global financial crisis, when bold and timely measures prevented a period of reckless private risk-taking and financial leverage from ending in Great Depression II. The Congress-imposed government shutdown and near-default in October were particularly harmful to the country’s global standing.

As a result, the popular narrative is shifting to the danger of “government failure.” More and more Americans are being led to forget how, just a few years ago, a united US government reacted decisively to “market failures” and thus helped to avoid a global economic meltdown that would have devastated millions of lives and undermined future generations’ prospects. Now, as the pendulum swings back, it risks overshooting the optimal combination of private and public activity and ending up at a simplistic view of government as the problem and the private sector as the solution. If this occurs, the outlook for faster, more inclusive growth would be weakened further.

Government has a long pro-growth to-do list heading into 2014. The top priorities include modernizing the country’s transport and energy infrastructure, reforming an underperforming education system, improving the labor market, bringing order to an overly-fragmented fiscal structure, enhancing the provision of public goods, and safeguarding America’s interests abroad.

It is tempting for politicians and analysts to overplay simple narratives that place the blame entirely on one side or the other. The truth is more nuanced and complex. America is in desperate need of a Congress that encourages, rather than impedes, better partnerships between the public and private sectors. Constantly pitting one side against the other may make for entertaining roundtables on cable television and energizing political rallies. But it comes at the cost of undermining an economy that could – and therefore should – be performing much better.

Alasdair Macleod: The great game accelerates

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 11:44 AM PST

2:40p ET Monday, December 9, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Economist and market analyst Alasdair Macleod today outlines what he sees as China's strategy toward the West, the Middle East, and Asia, a strategy in which gold plays what could become the decisive role.

Macleod writes: "Physical gold is being cornered, leaving Western capital markets operating as little more than casinos backed only by hot air. The dollar will one day be a bit-player in international trade, meaning that enormous quantities are becoming redundant and will have to be sold for something else. After the inevitable upward explosion in the dollar price of gold, we shall be left wondering at what price we will need to offer our goods and services to get some of it back from Asia."

His commentary is headlined "The Great Game Accelerates" and it's posted at his Internet site, Finance and Economics, here:

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/the-great-game-accelerates/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Charts Of Interest: 2nd Largest Month Ever For Chinese HK Gold Imports, West/East Drawdown Continues…

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 11:07 AM PST

As hedge funds reduce gold bets to 2007 levels, and Barrick Gold prepares to forward-sell future gold production (halted in 2009 for nearly $6B charge), one might think that all the world's gold is going "back on the shelf" in terms of both lower prices and greater supply availability. But as widely circulated within the 'church' of gold this year, is the story of lower prices and a deafening Eastward march of physical inventories.

Here are updated two key charts representing the movement.

1. Total transparent gold holdings of exchange-market funds continue their record-pace descent:

(click to enlarge)

2. In a near mirror-opposite image, Chinese gold imports via Hong Kong have just reached their second highest monthly level ever in recorded history, at 131 tons:

Woe is Gold

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 11:00 AM PST

Midas Letter

The Relevance of Say’s Law

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 10:18 AM PST

I imagine many GoldMoney customers read much commentary relevant to gold and economics, and come up against Say’s Law. Its importance might not be immediately obvious.

Jean-Baptiste Say was a French businessman and economist in his early twenties when the Bastille was stormed and the French revolution followed. While the terrors unleashed by the revolution are what we remember from history lessons, what is less known are the financial difficulties that France faced leading up to that fateful year: a combination of heavy public debt and a large financial deficit. In the years that followed France suffered an inevitable currency collapse.

It was against this background that Say concluded that to understand commerce you should ignore money, because people make products to acquire other products, or “products are paid for with products”. And he also wrote “Money performs but a momentary function in this double exchange; and when the transaction is finally closed, it will always be found, that one kind of commodity has been exchanged for another.”

This was conventional wisdom until the 1930s depression, when Keynes challenged the proposition that “supply creates its own demand”. Keynes dismissed this on the basis that Say’s Law “is equivalent to the proposition that there is no obstacle to full employment” (General Theory). Remember, this was written after the mass unemployment experienced in the Great Depression. Keynes went on to write that consumption depended on “the psychological characteristic of the community, which we shall call the propensity to consume”. In other words economic activity depends on animal spirits.

One can immediately see a conflict here: Say, who observed an economy working with and without money knew that without money life went on, even though the absence of reliable money was inconvenient. To him money was just a facilitator of transactions. To Keynes, money was important because it gives governments a means to stimulate demand. Say’s Law is the essence of free markets while Keynesianism the basis behind government intervention.

The experience of the last five years with huge budget deficits and zero interest rates has shown the Keynesian approach has failed: no one can claim that attempts to revive our animal spirits have succeeded. And a moment’s thought informs us of the illogicality of stimulating consumer demand and ignoring production.

Unfortunately all this spending on intangible animal spirits has been going on since the 1930s, and has resulted in a stifling debt burden for both governments and their private sectors. Instead, inflation of money and bank credit is increasingly seen as the means to postpone a debt reconciliation that can only result in widespread bankruptcies. By following economic policies that ignored the truth of Say’s Law many governments have got themselves and their citizens into a debt trap from which there is no visible escape.

Say’s Law will be tested again if currency values decline, reflecting the last five years of monetary policies. After all, he made his observation following experience of the hyperinflation of the French mandat in 1796. But if Say’s Law still holds, we can at least take comfort that there is economic life after monetary death.

Alasdair Macleod

For The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: This originally appeared on GoldMoney.com

P.S. Like it or not, we're stuck with the Fed. And while it continues to print money and keep interest rates artificially low — all while destroy the value of the U.S. dollar — you'll want to make sure you're taking action now to protect you and your family's wealth. Signing up for free The Daily Reckoning email edition is one small thing you can do to make that happen. Every single issue is packed with opportunities to help you safeguard and even grow your wealth no matter what the Fed does. And it's FREE! So what are you waiting for? Sign up right here to get started.

The Best Way to Make Gains in 2014

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 09:31 AM PST

You don't need to know exactly how the market will perform next year to make money.

Unless you own a time machine, there's no way to accurately predict where the broad market will land on December 31, 2014. Just look at the predictions made every year by the big-name analysts. Inevitably, these numbers must be scrapped or revised before spring…

Of course, you won't be able to book consistent gains off most of these big picture predictions. When it comes to trading, you have to view the market week by week, month by month—and adjust accordingly.

But that doesn't mean you shouldn't have game plan heading into a new trading year. With that in mind, here's what we're working with heading into the final trading weeks of the year…

Barring an unprecedented meltdown, 2013 will go down as one of the best years ever for the S&P 500.

After Friday's surge, the S&P is up an incredible 28% on the year. As you already know, we're smack in the middle of the market's sweet spot. December is historically a strong month. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw continued upside action into the New Year…

But what does this all mean for 2014? Can stocks keep chugging higher after this year's historic performance?

All Years Since 1928 Where SPX Closed higher by 25% or More

You might think that after a huge year, the S&P is at a much higher risk of an abrupt correction. But that's not what the numbers tell us…

"Overall, following an up 25% year, the following year is higher 66% of the time, for an average move of +5.47%," explains MKM Partners senior technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky.

We'll use this historical performance to begin to shape our 2014 trading view. While you probably shouldn't expect another massive run higher, the strong performance we're experiencing right now could very well carry over into the earlier part of the year, setting up the market for modest gains as the year progresses. Don't bust out those crash helmets just yet…

Regards,

Greg Guenthner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: To get a serious leg-up in the markets, follow Greg’s lead every morning in his Rude Awakening email edition. It gets sent straight to your inbox and comes complete with 5 “Rude Numbers” to watch throughout the day, not to mention 3 specific chances to discover real, actionable investment plays. So don’t wait. Sign up for FREE, right here.

Central banks lose $400bn in gold rout

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 08:49 AM PST

Fall in gold price catches out central banks' fearful of repeating Gordon Brown's mistake of selling reserves at the bottom
    




ETF selling continues in gold

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 08:18 AM PST

“A lot of [gold] selling has now been done,” reckons Frances Hudson, co-manager of $271 billion at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.

Read more….

Gold premiums soar in India

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 08:18 AM PST

A surge in the physical gold premium to new levels signals strong demand from India.

Read more….

Can’t-miss headlines: Gold holds around $1,230, Rambler cuts record profit & more

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 08:18 AM PST

The latest morning headlines, top junior developments and metal price movements. Today, gold moves either side of $1,230 in recent trading and a junior copper-gold producer eyes the end of its debt.

Read more….

Buenaventura reports strike at largest silver mine

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 08:18 AM PST

A company executive says a strike by workers at the Uchucchacua silver mine in Peru has totally paralysed production.

Read more….

The Most Important Prediction for 2014

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 07:24 AM PST

Dear Reader,

I have written repeatedly about the futility and foolishness of trying to time the market—tops or bottoms—but I know the desire for such a crystal ball is overpowering. So this week, we'll indulge in a bit of crystal-ball gazing.

But first, it is with great pride that I announce the publication of Doug Casey's new book, Right on the Money. This is our second volume of "Conversations With Casey," but this one includes several conversations between the two of us that weren't distributed for free in our former column by that name. In the book, Doug and I delve into the specifics of how to apply his contrarian philosophy to making money.

The Book

When I mentioned the new book on my Facebook page a few days ago, I received a slew of congratulations. Thank you all. I enjoyed the conversations greatly, as well as the opportunity to draw out Doug's knowledge and experience to share with all who are intellectually honest enough to consider what he says.

But one fellow wrote in to say that Doug and I were quite brazen to publish a book called Right on the Money after being wrong about gold for the last two years. I understand completely that people who've invested recently in the gold sector are likely underwater and wondering how long they can hold their breath. I feel the pinch myself, with many of my own stocks in the red at the moment.

However, we were not wrong about the current correction. Back in 2011 when gold hit its nominal peak over $1,900, we warned readers in print that a retreat was likely. Granted, given all the Wile E. Coyote economics governments around the world have been engaged in, we didn't expect the temporary bear to stay so long or grow so large, but we did see it coming, and we did—and still do—see it as a fantastic opportunity for those who didn't get in at the beginning of the bull cycle back in 2001.

In point of fact, we have not been proven wrong about that yet; we've just seen a predictable level of panic among those who don't see or have confidence in the bigger picture and long-term trends we're betting on.

Further, we found ways to make money on gold's slide since 2011, including three highly successful "gold insurance" plays that more than doubled readers' investments when gold went down. We've also included more dividend-paying companies in BIG GOLD, and even found one company for the International Speculator that profits from processing gold regardless of the gold price (one so far—I'm on my way to see another possible pick as you read this), as well as been able to upgrade our portfolio with high-grade exploration and development companies on sale while the market is down.

This is what it means to be a contrarian—as Doug likes to say: "Make volatility your best friend." And he should know: he's been profiting from the metals and mining markets for almost 40 years.

If one pulls back to view the big picture—in both global breadth and historical depth—as few people can do like Doug, it's easy to see that the current slump in our market sector should not be cause for fear, but for excitement. It's the best bargain-hunting opportunity for commodities investors in a decade. And it just may be the best wealth-creation opportunity in a generation.

Exactly how one goes about this is what we explore in Right on the Money, and you can preorder a copy now to receive a 13% discount. Just in time for holiday reading—and giving. I hope you take advantage of this deal while it lasts.

The Crystal Ball

Doug likes to say that it's a big mistake to make a prediction that includes both an event and a time. But then he often goes ahead and does exactly that—"for entertainment purposes only."

So I'm going to go out on a similar limb:

I think it will be clear to most investors that the precious metals correction is over and the second half of this record-smashing gold bull market is under way well before the end of 2014.

One of the reasons for this is a very different conversation I recently had, not with Doug, but with Krassimir Petrov. Krassimir is a true international man, like Doug: an Austrian School professor of economics from Bulgaria, currently living in Thailand. More important at the moment is that the previous time I interviewed him, he predicted the timing of the current gold bull cycle more accurately than Doug and I did—a fact that impressed me greatly.

That interview is a relatively quick read, dense with important ideas and insights, but it's too long for this dispatch, so I'm going to give you the bottom line and encourage you to read the whole interview here.

Based on cyclical analysis, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and portfolio analysis, Petrov says the bottom for gold could be in already, but most likely will be behind us within one to seven months. That's early to mid-2014, now rapidly approaching.

(Note that in the interview, he says three to nine months, but I recorded our conversation two months ago.)

That said, I should also mention that Krassimir is convinced that the actual Mania Phase in gold – when the investing herd throws itself head-first into the gold market and you’ll get gold stock tips from your friendly cab driver – is still at least six to eight years away. While that may be somewhat disappointing to us gold investors waiting for our big rewards, it isn’t bad at all, because we'll make plenty of money on the ramp up before the Mania Phase, just as we did in the first half of this epic bull market.

I still believe it's impossible to predict the exact bottom of a market correction, but given that cashed-up, high-grade exploration plays—and even profitable producers—are already on the deep-discount rack, it seems clear as day to me that the thing to do is to build a position while the market is down. You do not want to miss this boat. And best of all, tax-loss selling this month is likely to provide spectacular buying opportunities in the best of the best stock picks in the sector.

I strongly encourage any and all with the contrarian courage to buy what others are selling (the hardest part of implementing the "buy low, sell high" formula) to act.

Right on the Money shows you how, and the International Speculator offers you specific and detailed guidance. (If you try the International Speculator risk-free for 3 months today, BIG GOLD is included in your subscription, at no extra charge.)

I know I'm tooting my own horn here and repeating some things readers have heard before, but I believe 100% in what I've said, and I've put more of my own money where my mouth is than ever before.

Heart and mind, I wish you a happy and very prosperous 2014.

Sincerely,

Louis James
Senior Metals Investment Strategist
Casey Research

P.S. New phyles are launching in Sleman, Yogyakarta, Indonesia; Cuenca Canton, Ecuador; and Birmingham, England. The Antwerp, Belgium; Sydney, Australia; Princeton, NJ; Edmonton, ON; and London, ON, Canada phyles are looking for coordinators. Anyone interested in any of these areas or in checking for an existing phyle in his region should send an email to phyle@caseyresearch.com.

Rock & Stock Stats
Last
One Month Ago
One Year Ago
Gold 1,230.70 1,317.80 1,701.80
Silver 19.54 21.77 33.04
Copper 3.21 3.24 3.63
Oil 97.65 94.80 86.26
Gold Producers (GDX) 20.66 24.78 45.55
Gold Junior Stocks (GDXJ) 28.89 37.15 83.12
Silver Stocks (SIL) 10.82 12.59 22.11
TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) 13.280.72 13,380.41 12,151.13
TSX Venture 916.65 941.31 1,186.70


Gold and Silver HEADLINES

GFMS: India's Silver Imports Likely to Touch New Record Highs in 2013 (Scrap Monster)

According to Thomson Reuters GFMS, silver shipments into India reached 338 tonnes (10.8 million ounces, or Moz) in October, surging 40% over the 241 tonnes (7.7 Moz) imported in September. Through October, the country imported 4,652 tonnes (149.5 Moz), and analysts project that total silver imports could reach 5,200 to 5,400 tonnes (167-174 Moz) this year, exceeding the previous record of 5,048 tonnes (162.2 Moz) achieved in 2008.

Silver demand in India has two key drivers. The first is low prices, which have plunged by nearly 37% year to date. The second reason is that increasing numbers of Indians have opted for silver jewelry and coins as gifts at festivals and weddings instead of gold, due to government restrictions that have led to a supply shortfall.

Given the strength of the gold tradition in India, it will be interesting to see what happens when this dam finally bursts—as eventually it must.

Silver Eagle Coin Sales Lag in November, But Still a Record 2013 (Mineweb)

November American Silver Eagle bullion coin sales declined by 787,000 ounces from October levels, as the US Mint reports 2.3 million Silver Eagles were sold in November, down from 3,087,000 coins in October and 3,159,500 coins in November 2012.

However, according to the Gold and Silver Blog, "the lower sales figures for November do not reflect a drop in demand for silver bullion coins, but rather the opposite due to the fact that the US Mint has run out of coins due to unprecedented demand." Last year, the Mint unexpectedly sold out of 2012 Silver Eagles on December 17; the Mint is thus limiting coin orders for the remainder of this year to conserve blanks for the 2014 program.

The Mint plans to issue its last weekly allocation of 2013 Silver Eagles on December 9. The 2014 silver Eagle bullion coins will not be available to order until January13, 2014.

Meanwhile, year-to-date sales of American Eagle gold bullion coins at the end of November totaled 800,500 ounces, surpassing last year's total sales of 753,000. This is already a new all-time record.

Korea Exchange Targets Gold Trade as Park Hunts Taxes (Bloomberg)

In an attempt to improve trading transparency and generate new tax revenue and financial opportunities, the Korean Exchange will begin physical gold trading on March 24, 2014.

Asia's fourth-largest economy, which already offers gold futures trading on the Korean Exchange, has been entertaining the possibility of a physical bullion market since 2010. Illegal trading to avoid taxes accounts for as much as 3.3 trillion won, depriving the government of an estimated $300 billion in tax revenue.

The surge in gold-related services and institutions continues, especially in the East. We recommend investing with this trend in mind.


This Week in International Speculator and BIG GOLD—Key Updates for Subscribers

International Speculator

BIG GOLD

  • We updated all our stock recommendations in the latest issue of BIG GOLD, which are also posted on the portfolio page.

2014: Gold Up 70% or U.S. Equities Down 40%?

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 07:08 AM PST

As we to prepare for the arrival of a new year, 2014 for those not keeping track, we should take time to consider reality. One part of that is to reconsider some well grounded advice: Past performance does not predict future performance. Read More...

"Who's On First?"

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 07:04 AM PST

The central banks have now created a system which is totally dependent on ever-more credit and QE.  So there is nothing that can stop them from printing money.  On the contrary, they will need to print a lot more.  Instead of central banks printing $2 trillion each year, it will soon be $10 trillion, and eventually a lot more. - Egon von Greyerz, King World News interview:  LINK
With no meaningful Government and industry association economic reports due out today, the Federal Reserve good cop/bad cop comedy routine will be in full force today.  Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will be out today making their empty rhetorical speeches either in favor or against reducing QE.  But all three represent nothing more than a modified Abbot and Costello slap-stick comedy routine.

The quote above represents the truth about QE.  It reflects my view ever since Bernanke first uttered the word "taper" in May.   That is, I said all along that the Fed has been using QE to keep the big banks solvent and the tracks in the snow leading to this conclusion are in there for anybody to examine using the St. Louis Fed data system.  I connected the dots last week for everyone here:  There Will Be No Taper

The other tell-tale is in the trading action of the U.S. dollar, in which the dollar looks like it has contracted that nasty new HIV strain that is resilient to treatment.  I'll have more to say on this sometime this week.  In the meantime, get yourself some snacks and pull up a comfortable chair so you can fully enjoy watching Bullard, Lacker and Fisher sling the bullshit around in one humorous scatological production orchestrated by the most corrupt banking system in history.   Oh ya, if the brown stuff flying over the airwaves happens to cause a temporary drop in the Comex-driven paper price of gold, use that as an opportunity to add to your precious metals positions.

"Who's On First?"

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 07:04 AM PST

The central banks have now created a system which is totally dependent on ever-more credit and QE.  So there is nothing that can stop them from printing money.  On the contrary, they will need to print a lot more.  Instead of central banks printing $2 trillion each year, it will soon be $10 trillion, and eventually a lot more. - Egon von Greyerz, King World News interview:  LINK
With no meaningful Government and industry association economic reports due out today, the Federal Reserve good cop/bad cop comedy routine will be in full force today.  Three regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will be out today making their empty rhetorical speeches either in favor or against reducing QE.  But all three represent nothing more than a modified Abbot and Costello slap-stick comedy routine.

The quote above represents the truth about QE.  It reflects my view ever since Bernanke first uttered the word "taper" in May.   That is, I said all along that the Fed has been using QE to keep the big banks solvent and the tracks in the snow leading to this conclusion are in there for anybody to examine using the St. Louis Fed data system.  I connected the dots last week for everyone here:  There Will Be No Taper

The other tell-tale is in the trading action of the U.S. dollar, in which the dollar looks like it has contracted that nasty new HIV strain that is resilient to treatment.  I'll have more to say on this sometime this week.  In the meantime, get yourself some snacks and pull up a comfortable chair so you can fully enjoy watching Bullard, Lacker and Fisher sling the bullshit around in one humorous scatological production orchestrated by the most corrupt banking system in history.   Oh ya, if the brown stuff flying over the airwaves happens to cause a temporary drop in the Comex-driven paper price of gold, use that as an opportunity to add to your precious metals positions.

Gold Daily/Weekly Cycle Bottom Coming Due

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 06:48 AM PST

For the near-term action in the gold market, there are several key cycles that are coming due right now with the gold market, with both the daily weekly cycles due for a bottom of some degree. Whether that low will end up ... Read More...

Gold Bullion "Selling Now Done", Growing Bearishness "Good News for Bugs"

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 05:32 AM PST

GOLD BULLION prices held steady around $1230 per ounce in London trade Monday morning, ticking upwards as Asian stock markets closed higher after strong data from China but European shares slipped.
 
The Euro rose to 6-week highs vs. the Dollar on the FX market, capping gold bullion priced in the single currency beneath €900 per ounce.
 
Silver rose 0.7% as commodities also gained, together with major government bond prices, reaching $19.65 per ounce.
 
"A lot of [gold] selling has now been done," reckons Frances Hudson, co-manager of $271 billion at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh, quoted by Bloomberg.
 
"So you could see a more stable base for the gold price to build on."
 
Last week the world's biggest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (ticker: GLD) shed another 0.9% of the gold bullion held to back its exchange-traded shares, taking the total down to a near 5-year low beneath 836 tonnes.
 
Bearish betting by money managers, hedge funds and other speculators meantime rose in the week-to-last-Tuesday to the equivalent of 315 tonnes of gold bullion by value, well above the 250-tonne average of 2013 to date.
 
That compares with the previous 5-year average short position of 96 tonnes.
 
Overall, however, so-called speculative traders remain bullish in aggregate, with their long position in US gold futures and options outweighing those short bets by 151 tonnes – the smallest "net long" since midsummer's multi-year lows.
 
"This could be just the news that the gold bugs wanted to hear," says the Financial Times
 
"More and more traders have lost faith in bullion. Yet the more that a consensus [for lower 2014 prices] builds, the closer to a possible turn in sentiment."
 
"We could expect a short-term recovery in gold prices," Reuters quotes Hong Kong economist Alexis Garatti at Haitong International Research. 
 
"[Because] in our view, the mood of the market is exaggerated regarding the macroeconomic situation in the US."
 
New data from Beijing meantime showed a surge in China's exports for November, taking the overall trade surplus to a sudden 4-year high.
 
The world's largest gold mining producer, China is now also the world's largest end-buyer of gold bullion, overtaking India in 2013, which will likely see a drop in gold imports to 900 tonnes according to comments Monday from market-development group the World Gold Council.
 
Gold bullion prices on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose Monday in brisk trade, even as the Yuan exchange rate was raised to new highs against the Dollar by the People's Bank.
 
"There's so much room to grow," says World Gold Council investment director for the Far East, Roger Liu, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
 
Noting China's current gold bullion accumulation of 4.5 grams per head per year, and contrasting it with the global 24-gram average, "I expect more [ETF trust fund] products along the lines of SPDR Trust to pop up in China," Liu concludes.

Gold Price volatile due to non farm payrolls

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 05:28 AM PST

Investors sought to cover their positions on Friday after the gold price didn't fall as much as anticipated post-non farm payrolls

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.GoldSilverNewsBlog.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]

Gold Cycle Bottom Coming Due

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 04:29 AM PST

For the near-term action in the gold market, there are several key cycles that are coming due right now with the gold market, with both the daily weekly cycles due for a bottom of some degree. Whether that low will end up as anything meaningful remains to be seen, though at least a short-term bottom is expected to materialize, with the daily cycles looking for the same on or around the December 6th date. Take a look at the chart below:

Stocks Bear Market Bottoms, Gold Smart Money Buying Opportunity

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 03:44 AM PST

In this business there is no greater buying opportunity than at a bear market bottom. For those few investors able to control emotions, delay gratification, and go against the crowd, a bear market bottom is where millionaires and billionaires are made. Unfortunately for the vast majority of traders, emotions are much stronger than logic. Most people when they see a market that has gone up for five years automatically assume that it's going to continue to go up. And because everyone else is getting rich and they don't want to be left out, they jump on board too.

Gold price in a range of currencies since December 1978 XLS version

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 03:07 AM PST

Excel file of gold price charts and data - Updated weekly in 19 curriences: US dollar, Euro, Japanese yen, Pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc, Indian rupee, Chinese renmimbi, Turkish lira, Saudi riyal, Indonesian rupiah, UAE dirham, Thai baht, Vietnamese dong, Egyptian pound, Korean won, Russian ruble, South African rand, Australian dollar

HUI Stocks to Gold Ratio Charts..When is Enough Enough?

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:35 AM PST

Tonight I would like to show you some HUI to gold ratio charts that could give us a place to look for the ultimate low for the big cap precious metals stocks. So far these charts have been playing out for over five years. The first chart is a 5 year daily line chart that shows the blue 5 point triangle reversal pattern. That 5 point blue triangle reversal pattern has led the big cap PM stocks lower forming one consolation pattern after another.

A New Monthly Low for Gold During This Cyclical Bear Market

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 01:30 AM PST

Kitco

Warrants Warrant More Respect in the Resource Sector: Dudley Baker

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:00 AM PST

Noting that the resource sector is poised to come back "big time," Dudley Baker, editor and founder of CommonStockWarrants.com, makes the case for adding warrants to resource investment portfolios. In this interview with The Gold Report, he offers a tutorial on this underused investment vehicle, disabuses myths about warrants and shares the names of some warrants that warrant attention.

Warrants Warrant More Respect in the Resource Sector: Dudley Baker

Posted: 09 Dec 2013 12:00 AM PST

Noting that the resource sector is poised to come back "big time," Dudley Baker, editor and founder of CommonStockWarrants.com, makes the case for adding warrants to resource investment portfolios. In this interview with The Gold Report, he offers a tutorial on this underused investment vehicle, disabuses myths about warrants and shares the names of some warrants that warrant attention.

Stocks to Continue to Soar & Gold to Continue to Fall in 2014 – Here’s Why

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 09:44 PM PST

Each December we publish a list of investment themes that we feel are critical to theinvesting-4 coming year. Below are our expectations for the U.S, Japanese and European stock markets, municipal bonds and gold.

So says Richard Bernstein, Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC, (RBAdvisors.com) in excerpts from his post* entitled 10 for ’14 as found on AdvisorAnalyst.com.

[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.] 

Bernstein goes on to say:

Below are my 10 Themes for ’14

1) The US stock market continues its bull run.

Rationale: We continue to believe that the US stock market may be in the midst of one of the biggest bull markets of our careers.

It seems odd to us that investors seem to disregard the existence of a stock market cycle despite that the rotations and leadership in the US market have followed the normal historical pattern.

Indicators that have historically been reliable forecasters of bear markets still seem quite benign.

  • The yield curve remains positively sloped,
  • valuation appears normal for this point in the cycle, and
  • sentiment remains very attractive according to our models.

Although stocks in 2014 might not provide returns as high as those during 2013, the US stock market's return might be above average in 2014.

2) Japan outperforms emerging markets – The Currency Wars Begin.

Rationale: As of the date of this report, the Nikkei 225's YTD total return of roughly 53% has far outpaced the MSCI Emerging Market's -1%. We think Japan is likely to outperform emerging markets again during 2014.

The aftershocks of the global credit bubble (i.e., massive global overcapacity and falling productivity in the emerging markets) could result in currency wars. Our bullishness on Japan in 2013 was based on a falling Yen, and we think Japan may be the first country to recognize that countries must compete on price (i.e., depreciating currency) in the absence of improving demographics and productivity.

Although consensus return expectations for Japan do not seem conservative, we still believe that investors have yet to fully recognize the significant structural headwinds facing the emerging markets.

3) European small cap stocks lead global equity performance.

Rationale: The European economic recovery has lagged the US during this cycle, which is typical by historical standards. Smaller capitalization stocks tend to lead markets during most early-cycle periods. In addition, smaller capitalization European stocks currently have the world's strongest 12-month earnings growth forecast, yet few investors seem aware of these superior growth prospects.

4) High yield municipals lead the bond market.

Rationale: We like to search for gaps between perception and reality, and there seems to be a wide gap regarding municipal bond fundamentals. Whereas investors seem quite wary of municipals, municipal finances are generally getting stronger. Investors also seem very concerned that interest rates will rise, but an increase in interest rates can actually improve pension funding status (the present value of future liabilities shrinks as interest rates rise). Because of such factors, high yield municipal bonds might lead bond market performance during 2014.

5) Gold falls below $1,000.

Rationale: Investors often think of gold as a hedge against inflation, and history suggests that abnormally high inflation rates are often stimulated by strong credit growth. However, the global credit bubble is deflating, and developed economies' inflation rates continue to fall without credit's fuel. We can understand Yen-based investors' interest in gold as the Japanese economy reflates (see #2), but we think US-dollar based investors should emphasize financial assets rather than real assets like gold. In USD terms, we think gold will continue its bear market, and could fall below $1,000/ozt.

6) The American Industrial Renaissance continues.

Rationale: Smaller, domestically-focused US industrial and manufacturing companies have been gaining market share, and we think that trend is likely to continue. Energy costs, productivity, transportation costs, quality control, political stability, and labor costs are some of the contributing factors. Despite the significant outperformance of these small and mid-cap companies in 2013, we feel the investment theme remains in its early stages and expect the theme to outperform again in 2014.

7) The Fed stays on hold much longer than investors expect.

Rationale: Contrary to popular belief, the Fed has historically been a lagging, not a leading, indicator. The Fed has said that policy changes will be "data dependent" during this cycle (what exactly were they in past cycles if not data dependent?), and we interpret that to mean that Fed policy changes may lag more than they did in previous cycles. The fear of replaying 2008 is not only still central in investors' minds, it is apparently still central to the Fed's decisions. If our assertions are correct, then stock market valuations could be higher and volatility could be lower than investors currently expect.

8) Investors realize that the term "Liquid Alts" may be an oxymoron.

Rationale: During the early-1990s, I argued that illiquidity was one of the reasons alternative investments outperformed. Investors did not have ready access to their funds, and had to receive higher returns than available in liquid investments as compensation for taking illiquidity risk. Within that context, the term "liquid alternatives" seems like an oxymoron. Basic financial theory suggests that liquid alternatives should provide inferior return/risk potential versus illiquid alternatives. Ongoing fears of replaying 2008's bear market suggest to us that investors may be paying too much for liquidity, and that liquid alternatives' returns could be inferior to those of plain old-fashioned stocks.

9) The king has no clothes: high quality stocks underperform.

Rationale: Many investors believe that quality stocks outperform over the long- term. Unfortunately, there is little objective data to support that contention. Rather, there is substantial evidence that "bad" companies have historically tended to make "good" investments over the long-term. Much like in #7 and #8 above, 2008's lingering fears have led investors toward more conservative, higher quality stocks. We think that trend might reverse during 2014.

10) Small banks.

Rationale: Bubbles create capacity that typically isn't needed once the bubble deflates. The expansion of bank balance sheets was the capacity created during the credit bubble. Larger banks' balance sheets ballooned during the credit bubble, but their balance sheets have yet to fully contract. Smaller bank balance sheets seem much better aligned to the post-bubble credit world. The S&P SmallCap 600® Bank index outperformed the S&P 500® Bank index by roughly 15 percentage points so far during 2013. We expect smaller banks to again outperform larger banks in 2014.

[Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]  

*http://www.advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2013/12/06/richard-bernstein-10-for-14.html (© Copyright 2013 Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC. All rights reserved.)

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The post Stocks to Continue to Soar & Gold to Continue to Fall in 2014 – Here’s Why appeared first on munKNEE dot.com.

Friday Night Charts...HUI to Gold Ratio Charts..When is Enough Enough?

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 07:28 PM PST

Tonight I would like to show you some HUI to gold ratio charts that could give us a place to look for the ultimate low for the big cap precious metals stocks. So far these charts have been playing out for over five years. Read More...

2014: Gold Up 70% or U.S. Equities Down 40%?

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 04:00 PM PST

As we to prepare for the arrival of a new year, 2014 for those not keeping track, we should take time to consider reality. One part of that is to reconsider some well grounded advice: Past performance does not predict future performance.

JPM e-mails link China business with hiring ruling elite's kids

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 03:22 PM PST

JPMorgan Tracked Business Linked to China Hiring

By Ben Protess and Jessica Silver-Greenberg
The New York Times
Saturday, December 7, 2013

Federal authorities have obtained confidential documents that shed new light on JPMorgan Chase's decision to hire the children of China's ruling elite, securing emails that show how the bank linked one prominent hire to "existing and potential business opportunities" from a Chinese government-run company.

The documents, which also include spreadsheets that list the bank's "track record" for converting hires into business deals, offer the most detailed account yet of JPMorgan's "Sons and Daughters" hiring program, which has been at the center of a federal bribery investigation for months. The spreadsheets and emails -- recently submitted by JPMorgan to authorities -- illuminate how the bank created the program to prevent questionable hiring practices but ultimately viewed it as a gateway to doing business with state-owned companies in China, which commonly issue stock with the help of Wall Street banks.

The hiring practices seemed to have been an open secret at the bank's headquarters in Hong Kong, according to the documents, copies of which were reviewed by The New York Times. In the email citing the "existing and potential business opportunities," a senior JPMorgan executive in Hong Kong emphasized that the father of a job candidate was the chairman of the China Everbright Group, a state-controlled financial conglomerate. The executive also extolled the broader benefits of the hiring program, telling colleagues in another email: "You all know I have always been a big believer of the Sons and Daughters program -- it almost has a linear relationship" with winning assignments to advise Chinese companies. Until now, the indications of a connection between the hires and business deals have not been so explicit. ...

... For the full story:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/12/07/bank-tabulated-business-linked-to...



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Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

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Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Australia Wants Its Gold Back

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 02:38 PM PST

Gold repatriation has been a hot topic in the last 2 years. After Germany, Venezuela, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, Ecuador, Switzerland, it could be Australia’s turn.

The latest campaign baseline is “Return Aussie Gold” initiated by an Australian volunteer. On his campaign site he writes the following:

There is unprecedented structural change underway in the international gold market due to growing uncertainty around the global financial system. There are also substantial reasons for concern associated with storing Australia's Gold Reserves in London.

As Australians let’s join together and petition The Federal Government to immediately act prudently and physically repatriate Australia's Gold Reserves.

The ”Return Aussie Gold” website has a petition which should be signed by as much as possible people and returned as a hard copy in order to be valid. Go to the petition page.

From the FAQ section of the website:

Where is Australia’s gold and how much room is needed to store it on Australian soil?

Australia has 80 tonnes of gold which is managed by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as part of its foreign reserves assets. The RBA’s PR department has stated that Australia’s 80 tonnes of Gold Reserves is stored at the Bank of England, in London for cost efficiency and security reasons. However, Australia has international standard bullion storage facilities with capacity to store Australia’s gold at cost competitive rates. Also the cost to build a new Federal Government owned facility is negligible when compared to the current value of Australia’s gold ($3.3 billion).

To store Australia’s gold reserves, how much room is needed? A stack of 80 cubes (80 tonnes) would measure approximately 1.44m x 1.80m x 1.44m, which is smaller than a small car. Realistically, gold is stored in 12.5kg [400oz] bars on steel pallets, so 80 tonnes would take up an area around the size of an average Australian lounge room.

Thousands of tonnes of gold are transported around the world every year; therefore repatriating Australia’s gold would be a straight forward exercise.

Why is it critically important to repatriate Australia’s gold reserves back to Australian soil?

"Possession is nine-tenths of the law," an expression meaning that ownership is easier to maintain if one has possession of something, or difficult to enforce if one does not.

Australia holds two main assets as foreign reserves, i.e. gold and currencies. Gold only makes up 6% of the total value.

If the value of the currencies held by the RBA (and every other Central Bank) plummets due to a new GFC, gold will be the back-up reserve. This is exactly the reason gold is held now.

Why is Australia’s gold insurance seriously lacking?

Foreign reserves are assets held by Central Banks to back its country's liabilities. These assets are generally gold and different reserve currencies, mostly the US dollar and to a lesser extent the Euro, the UK pound sterling and the Japanese Yen.

The International Financial System is based on the circulation of the US dollar and other currencies.

Gold is an internationally acceptable wealth storage asset that does not carry any counter-party risk. Due to this fact gold is held to manage and diversify the counter-party risks associated with holding currencies (e.g. US dollar) within foreign reserve holdings as the RBA said in 1996, gold is “insurance against the breakdown of the international financial system.”

The following is the amount of gold some major Central Bank hold as foreign reserves (source WGC) at June 30 2013: USA (70% gold), Germany (66% gold), France (65% gold), Italy (65% gold), European Central Bank (27% gold), Spain (23% gold) and United Kingdom (12% gold).

Prior to the RBA selling 167 tonnes of Australia's gold, Australia held about 20% of its foreign reserves in gold, which was roughly in line with the gold holding of developed countries. (source RBA)

Australia now holds only 6% of its foreign reserves in gold (Source – IMF and World Gold Council)

Can the Federal Government ask the RBA to repatriate Australia’s gold reserves?

Yes. As an independent Central Bank the RBA Board of Directors manages the affairs of the bank, but is accountable to the Parliament for its actions.

Section 11 of the Reserve Bank Act 1959 lays down procedures which are to be followed if there is a difference of opinion between the Australian Government and the Reserve Bank Board as to whether the monetary and banking policy of the Bank is ‘directed to the greatest advantage of the people of Australia’.

In the face of an uncertain future, gold remains the best insurance policy

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 01:30 PM PST

The metal should be an essential part of every investment portfolio
    




This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The One Road To End Precious Metals Corruption

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 12:27 PM PST

On a near-weekly basis; we are (finally/belatedly) seeing exposed financial mega-crimes which are hundreds of times, and in some cases thousands of times larger than any other financial crime in History. As precious metals investors (and regular readers) are well aware; many of these crimes are perpetrated over and over again in our precious metals markets.

Over the past dozen years or so, many well-meaning individuals and institutions have sought to expose – and thus presumably put an end to – the rampant financial crime in these gold and silver markets. There has been the "smoking gun" testimony of metals trader, Andrew MacGuire. There has been a litany of quasi-confessions from various Western banking officials on past and ongoing efforts to "stabilize" (i.e. suppress) the gold market, in particular.

Then there are the markets themselves. We see prices jerked up and down (mostly down) in large, absolutely vertical moves, on a near-daily basis – an impossibility in any large, legitimate market. We see prices and inventories plummeting straight down, simultaneously – also an impossibility in any legitimate market.

We see the miners who produce these metals being relentlessly driven into bankruptcy, because prices aren't allowed to rise high enough to even allow these companies to break-even, while at the same time global demand is spiking to unprecedented levels. But to borrow a line from an old movie, "who you gonna call?"

In 1984; Hollywood's answer to that question was "Ghostbusters". In 2013, in the midst of history's worst financial crime-wave, from history's biggest Crime Syndicate; who you gonna call? No one.

After more than a dozen years of "exposing" the crime in these markets; today these markets are more corrupt than ever, by far. Albert Einstein famously remarked that "the definition of insanity" was to repeat the same action, but expect a different result. This makes most precious metals commentators/activists insane (by definition): continuing to endeavour to "expose precious metals corruption"; continuing to expect a different result.

Further illustrating the insanity of this activity is the obvious futility of these efforts. After spending five years investigating the most extreme, sustained (criminal) manipulation of any market in history – the silver market – the West's largest "regulator" of these corrupt markets (the CFTC) pronounced the silver market clean-as-a-whistle.

The U.S.'s Attorney General, Top Cop in the land, went much further than that. He openly pledged to refuse to prosecute these Mega-Criminals for their mega-crimes, and to obstruct any other jurisdictions from doing so. His excuse for flatly refusing to execute the sworn duty of his Office? These mega-bank, Mega-Criminals are (supposedly) "too big to fail."

This alone is conclusive proof of the irredeemable corruption of our present system. In (legitimate) capitalism; the concept of "too big to fail" does not and cannot ever exist. Rather, in legitimate capitalism there is only the diametrically opposite consideration: too big to exist.

For more than 200 years; the most rigorously enforced regulations of our entire economic system were our "anti-trust laws": laws preventing corporations from ever reaching a fraction of the size of the 21st century's oligopoly/monopoly monstrosities. But as our governments (and regulators) became more and more corrupt; first these anti-trust laws were laxly enforced, now they are completely ignored.

How did this happen? One of History's most-infamous financial villains blurted out the Ultimate Truth over three centuries ago:

"Give me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws."

- Mayer Amschel Rothschild (1744 – 1812)

What was the reasoning behind this Banker's arrogant boast? Whoever controls the money-supply of any nation/economy can simply funnel infinite amounts of free money into their own pockets – and with that money they can buy all the Lawmakers. This is precisely the reality we face today.

Gold, Silver & The Desperation Of Western Governments

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 12:13 PM PST

On the heels of unprecedented actions being taken across the globe, today 40-year veteran Robert Fitzwilson discusses what is taking place in the gold and silver markets, as well as the desperation of Western governments. This piece also includes some fascinating information about the incredible events which took place in the 1930s. Fitzwilson, who is founder of The Portola Group, put together the following tremendous piece below.

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Noonan: Charts Say “Still No Ending Action to Decline In Gold & Silver”

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 09:44 AM PST

We do not know what the tipping point will be for the turnaround in gold & silver171686-gold-silver-bars prices, but it will certainly show up in the charts - eventually.  For now, there is still no ending action to the current decline.  All we can do is read developing market activity and look for tell-tale signs when they do show [and here's what they are currently saying.]

So says Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) in paraphrased excerpts from his original article* entitled Gold And Silver – Your Economical Survival Depends On Them.

[The following is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]  

Noonan goes on to say in further edited excerpts:

The decline is holding near the last swing low.  Will the June low hold?  The odds are greater for the low not holding, based on the trend, but there is no way to determine the probability of the June low giving way, for it is possible it will not. For now, the 9 week rally from that low is undergoing a correction, currently in its 14th week…

As can be seen in the charts below, the ranges of the last 6 weeks down are smaller.  There is not as much Ease of Downward Movement which says that:

  • sellers are not as strong or
  • buyers are meeting the effort of sellers, more so than in the past since the highs or
  • a combination of the two. 

The mid-range close from last week shows evidence of buyers successfully defending the low, and that requires a closer look at the daily chart to see if more can be read into that observation.

Gold – Daily Chart

Last Wednesday's large, high volume rally bar needs to be watched to see how it is retested. The how of any price reaction often provides important clues.  If price narrows and the volume declines on a retest, it lets us know sellers are weak, and buyers can more easily take control.  If price declines in a wide range bar and closes poorly, we know sellers are still in control.  Next week should give some kind of answer.

GC D2 7 Dec 13

There is no question that the trend remains down, and there is no sign of a turnaround.

Gold – Weekly Chart

What is known about bars that overlap is they reflect a balanced struggle between buyers and sellers.  On the weekly chart as seen below, price is well away from the upper channel line.  On the daily, above, the upper channel line is being retested.  The upper line represents supply, (selling) and the lower channel line represents demand, (buying).

GC W 7 Dec 13

Because price is bumping up against a known supply area, it illustrates why the bars are overlapping, showing the balanced struggle between buyers and sellers as just explained. All that can be said is that control by sellers appears to be weakening.   That happens in all declining markets, but a weakening of the trend does not mean that it has ended.

Of late, silver has been relatively weaker than gold.

Silver – Daily Chart

Note below how the last three closes were in the upper range of each bar.  That tells us buyers won the battle on each of those days. Many more battles will have to be won before the tide of the "trend war" changes.

SI D 7 Dec 13

 Silver – Weekly Chart

The thin line connecting the recent swing highs and lows in the chart below shows a time frame of 23 weeks in the August high October low decline, and the current low is the 24th week since the late October swing high. 

SI W 7 Dec 13

Sometimes, markets rhyme in time.  What matters the most is how price behaves.  The swing low timing gives greater reason to watch how price responds at the current lows for a possible rally turnaround.

 [Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]  

*http://edgetraderplus.com/market-commentaries/gold-and-silver-your-economical-survival depends-on-them

Selection of Previous Noonan Articles:

1. Noonan: Charts Say NO End In Sight for Decline In Gold & Silver Prices

3 Comments

No matter what the latest "news" development is for PMs that paints a rosy picture, those in the fundamentalist camp are looking through rose-colored glasses to expect change in the near future. The charts for gold & silver continue to tell a more accurate story that belie all known fundamentals, and the charts shown here depict a market in decline with no apparent end in sight. Read More »

2. Noonan on Gold & Silver: "When Fundamentals Fail, Charts Prevail" & This Is What They're Conveying

1 Comment

171686-gold-silver-bars

Fundamentals are relative, charts are absolute. They accurately reflect all that is going on, regardless of reasoning/motivation and…right now, the charts are letting us know that higher PM prices are unlikely to occur anytime soon. Barring some kind of "overnight surprise" that will shock the markets, odds favor lower prices over higher prices unless and until demand shows up in chart activity. Read More »

3.  Noonan: When Will Silver Rise to Higher Values? Here's the Answer

1 Comment

Silver-Bars

It takes time to turn a market around, and silver is in that process. There is no degree of certainty that a bottom has been reached, but there exist at least a probability the recent lows may hold. Whether the lows hold or not, one cannot lose sight of why accumulating silver has been so important. When price finally accelerates higher, the trying of one's patience will quickly be forgotten and all will be well. Read More »

4. Noonan: Charts are Infallible! Here's Why & What They're Saying About Gold & Silver

Leave a comment

gold-silver

Some of the finest and most highly regarded minds in the world of PMs have been saying gold and silver are going higher…[but] the charts have "said" otherwise, and that has been the correct read…The fundamentals may be as bullish as can be [but] the charts are sending a different message.  Read More »

5. Noonan: Gold & Silver Could Move Sideways for Another 1-2 Years – Here's Why

Using past history of how price responds, it is likely that gold, and silver, could move sideways for another year or two.  While this flies in the face of so many current, supposedly "expert", opinions [mine is not based on opinion but, rather, is strictly based on the facts as conveyed by the charts. Take a look and you will see that too!] Read More »

6. Noonan: These Charts Clearly Show What's Happening With Gold & Silver – Take a Look

Below is a perfect example of how the charts timed the movement in the price of gold and silver over the past week. Yes, you CAN time the market as this article clearly demonstrates! When the market "talks," we listen.] Read More »

 

The window of opportunity to buy physical gold and silver continues to narrow.  Like the housing market top was known to be coming, when it came, those who waited too long regretted it.  When the bottom for the physical PMs is known as a certainty, those who waited for a "better price" may also regret that decision.  It is all about choice. Read More »

 

In an election, it does not matter if voter turnout is high or low, the outcome is determined by the actual votes cast.  The same holds true for the markets.  Only those who make an actual buy or sell decision determine the outcome of the market trend. The market "voters" turn up in charts, recorded in the price range, close, and volume. Collectively, a "story" unfolds, and it usually is an accurate one as it does not include any opinions. Opinions do not matter. Articles written about fundamentals, pundit declarations, etc., all fall under the category of opinions. The market is the best source for information, and that is a fact. Read More »

 

…Fiats have an unbroken track record of failing throughout all of history. Gold also has an unbroken track record of being a store of value for over 5,000 years.  Yes, there have been hiccups along the way, and we are in one now.  It is what it is, but what it is is also an incredible buying opportunity at "fire sale" prices….[That being said,]  a look at the charts of the paper-tracked PM market [beg the question]  … "Where's the beef?"  Where is the substance of anything?  We see none in the charts. Take a look. Words: 610; Charts :4 Read More »

 

Technical analysis is a measure different from fundamental analysis…and we qualifying our approach with a specialized subset of technical analysis.  How so? We read price and volume behavior, over time, in the form of developing market activity. It is what one sees on a chart, price ranges, close locations, volume, time factor[s], but no more. Below are charts that suggest that the weakness in silver may be coming to an end, sooner now rather than later, but that for now, it is what it is – and what is, is reality. Read More »

 

China's gold imports through Hong Kong are back near record high

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 08:51 AM PST

11:50a ET Sunday, December 8, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

China's gold imports through Hong Kong have returned to near a record-high level and the leading source of the metal is Switzerland, gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today at his Internet site, In Gold We Trust. The new data supports observations of a continuing great flow of the monetary metal from West to East. Jansen's report is headlined "China Mainland Gold Import Accelerating" and it's posted at In Gold We Trust here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/china-mainland-gold-import-accelerating

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Silver - Letting The Market Speak

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 08:30 AM PST

We are not a source for or fans of endless statistics, like the number of ounces purchased from one period over another, how many ounces are available at the Comex, how many ounces have been mined, the demand for v the production of silver, etc ... Read More...

BBC explains gold's suitability as money and its unique color

Posted: 08 Dec 2013 08:25 AM PST

11:29a ET Sunday, December 8, 2013

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The British Broadcasting Corp.'s news magazine program explains why gold, as an atomic element, is so suitable for monetary purposes, but maybe the most interesting part tells why gold's color is unique.

The explanation comes from Andrea Sella, a professor of chemistry at University College in London:

"Gold's golden colour has been a mystery until very recently, says Andrea Sella.

"The secret lies in its atomic structure. 'Quantum mechanics alone doesn't explain it,' he says. 'When you get to gold you find the atom is so heavy and the electrons move so fast that you now have to include Einstein's theory of relativity into the mathematics.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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"'It is only when you fold together quantum mechanics with relativity that suddenly you understand it.'

"Unlike other metals, which in their pure form reflect light straight back, gold molecules 'slosh around a little,' Sella says, with the result that gold 'absorbs a bit of the blue spectrum light, giving the light that is reflected back its distinctive golden color.'"

The BBC report is written by Justin Rowlatt, is headlined "Why Do We Value Gold?," and is posted at the BBC's Internet site here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25255957

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
Vancouver Convention Centre West
Sunday-Monday, January 19-20, 2014
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer...

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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