Gold World News Flash |
- Grandich becomes market analyst for Money Talks
- Gold Falls Under $1300
- The Weekend Vigilante
- Deepcaster: A Critical Key to EndGame Investing
- The Most Remarkable News In The Gold & Silver Markets
- PRECIOUS METALS End of Week Commentary – 11/09/2013
- PART ONE: The Dollar Reserve Equilibrium Is Breaking Down – John Butler
- India mulling easing gold import restrictions
- As BitCoin Touches $400 The Senate Starts Seeking Answers… As Does The Fed
- Big Institutions Bet "All In" On Small Caps
- Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper
- Janet Yellen’s Mission Impossible
- Market Monitor – November 9th
- Gold Investors Weekly Review – November 8th
- CLIENT ALERT!
- CLIENT ALERT!
- GLD and SLV constant/Comex gold inventories remain extremely low/Still no gold enters/Another phony jobs report
- SD Weekly Metals & Markets: Are We Seeing Early Signs of a Silver Eagle Shortage?
- Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper
- The Myth About Money, Credit & Gold
- Peter Schiff Warns U.S. Econcomy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared! - Video
- Gold And Silver - Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper
- LAST HURRAH FOR MANIAC CENTRAL BANKERS, THE END GAME, GOLD & MORE
- Silver Eagles – Global Demand Rising
- This Past Week in Gold
- Bookmark This Article: The Stock Market Will Crash Within 6 Months!
- Gold Silver Freedom Mini Doc From David Silva
- ‘It’s only a matter of time before gold makes a RUN’ — Marc Andrews
- Policy, Profits & Propping
- Policy, Profits & Propping
- Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper
- Eurozone: Bubbles Vs. Deflation
- Eurozone: Bubbles Vs. Deflation
- Peter Schiff Warns U.S. Econcomy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared! - Video
- Government Suicide
- Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper
- Stunning 90 Tons Of Paper Gold Used To Smash Gold Market
- Which Is the World’s Safest Major Currency – You’ll Be Surprised
| Grandich becomes market analyst for Money Talks Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:05 PM PST 12::01a CT Sunday, November 10, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GATA's longtime friend and supporter Peter Grandich has become senior market commentator for Michael Campbell's Money Talks Internet site and has posted his first commentary there, "Beware the Santa Claus Rally": http://moneytalks.net/peters-content/10591-beware-the-santa-claus-rally.... On the right side of that Internet page is a mechanism for enrolling to follow Grandich's commentary regularly by e-mail. CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal: Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear. All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics. All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay. Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery. All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins. Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653. Join GATA here: New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... Vancouver Resource Investment Conference http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/vancouver-resource-investment-confer... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:00 PM PST from Dan Norcini:
Technical and psychological damage was done, first by losing the “13″ handle and secondly by failing to hold near $1296. The 1280 level did hold the metal today but I suspect it was more a case of shorts ringing the cash register after having a good week than it was a concerted buying binge. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 09:35 PM PST by Jeff Berwick, Dollar Vigilante:
Hello from Lima, Peru, I’m here just on an overnight stopover and meeting with the Chief Editor and Manager of El Dolar Vigilante (TDV Latin America) over a pisco sour in the airport hotel bar. Briefly, if you read spanish at all, you should really check out TDV Latin America or TDV Spain. Both have been putting up some tremendous original content from their regions… so good that if you don’t read Spanish, you may just want to use Google Translate to read. I’ve just come from a completely whirlwind week at Galt’s Gulch Chile and I’ll get into that further below, but I want to start with what is on the top of my mind today. |
| Deepcaster: A Critical Key to EndGame Investing Posted: 09 Nov 2013 09:00 PM PST from Silver Doctors:
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| The Most Remarkable News In The Gold & Silver Markets Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:00 PM PST  Today KWN is putting out a special piece discussing one of the most remarkable news items in the gold and silver markets. This is something that the big bullion banks follow closely, as well as big money and even a few professionals. This will give KWN readers around the world a bit of a snapshot of what they look at.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| PRECIOUS METALS End of Week Commentary – 11/09/2013 Posted: 09 Nov 2013 03:30 PM PST by davefairtex, Peak Prosperity:
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| PART ONE: The Dollar Reserve Equilibrium Is Breaking Down – John Butler Posted: 09 Nov 2013 03:00 PM PST Matterhorn AM |
| India mulling easing gold import restrictions Posted: 09 Nov 2013 02:30 PM PST by Shivom Seth, MineWeb.com
“All the signs appear to be looking good. The inward shipment of the precious metal has been severely compressed in the current fiscal. Forex reserves are rising. The announcement to ease some of the restrictive norms should be out soon,’ confirmed an official of the All India Bullion and Jewellers Association. |
| As BitCoin Touches $400 The Senate Starts Seeking Answers… As Does The Fed Posted: 09 Nov 2013 02:08 PM PST from Zero Hedge:
Which means one thing: Congressional hearings. |
| Big Institutions Bet "All In" On Small Caps Posted: 09 Nov 2013 12:09 PM PST Last week, over a year after we first forecast a major short squeeze-driven outperformance of the most shorted small- and micro-cap stocks, none other than Goldman jumped on the "buy the most shorted names" bandwagon, which promptly led us to wonder if the rally in both the most shorted names, and also in the small cap Russell 2000 index, is finally coming to an end. The reality, as the chart below shows, is that despite 2013's rate-driven headfake, where Russell 2000 stocks have outperformed the S&P in close approximation with the 10 Year yield, whose surge was incorrectly translated as an indication of economic strengthening when it was merely reacting to fears about the Fed's gradual tapering, that the Russell is still solidly outperforming the S&P year to date.
In fact, to many buying the Russell 2000 is merely the highly levered bet with which the bulk of institutions (recall that almost all hedge funds, and a majority of mutual funds, are underperforming the S&P for a 5th consecutive year) seek to make up for losses in their portfolios. Which is why as the next chart below shows, in a furious scramble to catch up by year end, the institutional Russell net futures (i.e. levered) positioning just hit a record high: the biggest investors are now all-in the smallest names.
And once again, as so often happens, flows are confused for fundamentals. Because even Goldman edmits that the entire outperformance of the small cap sector is purely due to multiple expansion, not from actual fundamental improvement.
So is the massively overbought small cap sector due for a correction? With these manipulated, centrally-planned markets, nobody has any idea. However, for those who have once again bet all in, which just happens to be most plain vanilla dumb money, it may be time to reevaluate. Below is Goldman's David Kostin with his take on what has emerged as the most overbought small cap sector in history: From Goldman Investors have cast their ballots, and so far in 2013 the vote goes to small cap US equities. 2013 has been an excellent year for US equities in Small caps have outperformed large caps in almost every sector. Most notably, Russell 2000 Consumer Staples have returned nearly 40% YTD and outperformed their large cap counterparts by 15 pp. Info Tech is another notable difference, with investors citing the lack of growth among S&P 500 Tech as the reason for the small cap sector's 33% return and 14 pp outperformance relative to the lagging large cap sector. The two major drivers of Russell 2000 returns are US economic growth and valuation. We highlighted in April that the prospect for accelerating US GDP combined with undemanding valuation set the stage for strong returns. From May through September, the Russell 2000 returned 14%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 800 bp. After lagging by 300 bp in the last month, however, investors wonder whether the small cap rally is over. The opposing forces of improving US GDP growth and above-average valuation suggest that the Russell 2000 will post a decent but less impressive return of 6% in the next 12 months. This compares to a historical average of 11% and implies that small caps will trade in line with large caps. We forecast the S&P 500 will reach 1850 in 12 months (also +6%). One core pillar of small cap performance, growth, remains supportive. We expect US GDP will accelerate above-trend to a 3% pace in 2014 from under 2% this year, and remain at that rate at least through 2016. Strong expectations for earnings growth reflect the economic picture. We forecast 2014 EPS growth of 23% for the Russell 2000 compared with 8% for the S&P 500. Consensus expects earnings growth of 33% and 11%, respectively. The other major driver, valuation, is the strongest obstacle to small caps, and the most common concern raised by investors. The Russell 2000 P/E multiple has risen 25% YTD, explaining more than 80% of the index return. It now stands above 10-year averages both in absolute terms and relative to the S&P 500. Price/book, our preferred metric for small caps, has similarly risen from a standard deviation below to nearly a standard dev. above average levels during the last two years. Rising interest rates should be a tailwind for Russell 2000 returns. From a fundamental perspective, small cap borrow costs, and therefore margins and earnings, have a low sensitivity to changes in Treasury yields. Russell 2000 performance relative to the S&P 500 tracked the general path of yields this year, with small caps garnering most of their excess returns as 10-year yields rose from 1.7% in May to nearly 3% in September. Our rate strategists forecast the 10-year will rise to 2.75% by YE 2013 and 3.25% by YE 2014. Several other macro factors that supported small cap outperformance of large caps this year may become headwinds in 2014. The Russell 2000 has historically outperformed the S&P 500 during periods of accelerating EPS growth, expanding P/E multiples, and a strengthening dollar. We expect S&P 500 EPS growth to decelerate to 8% in 2014 from 11% this year, and that P/E multiple expansion has largely run its course. The current S&P 500 forward multiple of 15x is in line with our year-end 2014 forecast level. Our FX strategists expect USD to weaken against EUR and GBP but strengthen relative to JPY during the next 12 months. The Russell 2000's leverage to domestic growth boosted the index this year but may be a detriment as growth in foreign markets improves. Roughly 80% of Russell 2000 sales are derived domestically compared with 66% for the S&P 500. This benefitted the small cap index earlier this year as investors worried about growth in Europe and Asia. Both data and sentiment have improved, however; Eurozone and China PMIs are back above 50, and regional equity markets have responded. Positioning also poses a risk to small cap performance. Small cap mutual fund and ETF flows have totaled $22bn (5% of AUM) YTD, putting 2013 on pace to be the strongest year on record. Institutions are currently $6bn net long Russell 2000 futures, the largest position since the data start in 2006. Leveraged funds have a modest $2bn net short, a decline from their $2bn net long earlier this year but enough to rank in the 85th percentile historically. Micro data are also mixed. 81% of Russell 2000 companies have reported 3Q results. 41% of firms beat on earnings by at least a standard deviation of consensus estimates, 25% missed, and the average surprise was 3%. These metrics are all in line with the 10-year historical average. In 3Q the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index averaged its highest level since 2007, but remains well-below average levels prior to the crisis. According to the survey, revenue growth concerns are fading, and respondents continue to point to government requirements as their most important problem. |
| Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Posted: 09 Nov 2013 11:40 AM PST by Michael Noonan, Gold Silver Worlds:
Cognitive dissonance: an inner need to maintain harmony in one's attitudes and beliefs while avoiding disharmony, [dissonance]. When a conflict arises that produces a sense of inner discomfort about one's beliefs or attitudes over something that promotes an alteration of those same beliefs and attitudes, there is a driving need to restore the inner balance or calm. In other words, it is easier to go along in order to get along. |
| Janet Yellen’s Mission Impossible Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:40 AM PST by Peter Schiff, Gold Seek:
Unlike just about every other economist, I knew that the Fed would not taper in September because the economy is still fundamentally addicted to stimulus. The signs of recovery that have caused investors and politicians to bubble with enthusiasm are just QE in disguise. Take away the QE and the economy would likely tilt back into an even more severe recession than the one we experienced before QE1 was launched. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 10:11 AM PST Top Market Stories For November 9th, 2013: That's a Lot of Silver… - John Rubino ‘Claims Per Deliverable Ounce’ Rises to Record High 60.38 - Jesse's Cafe Diwali and Indian gold tax to push up sales in Dubai by 50 per cent - GoldSeek Mike Maloney’s Top 10 Reasons To Buy Gold & Silver - Zero Hedge China Seen [...] |
| Gold Investors Weekly Review – November 8th Posted: 09 Nov 2013 09:40 AM PST In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. The price of the yellow metal went lower after two consecutive weeks of gains. Gold closed the week at $1,288.60 which is $27.6 per ounce lower (2.1%). The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index rose 0.39% on the week. This was the gold investors review of past week. Gold Market StrengthBloomberg reports total known gold ETF holdings have fallen 29% since their all-time peak earlier this year, contributing to the almost 25% decline in the gold price. However, gold investors have found solace recently as gold ETF redemptions have ceased to be the main driver of gold prices. The chart below shows this point. As reported previously, increased physical demand emanating mainly from China has been supportive of gold prices at the $1,300 per ounce level. Recent data shows physical demand remains at its strongest level with China importing an additional 109 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong during the month of September. At the current pace, Chinese imports would reach over 1,150 tonnes for 2013. Similarly, U.S. Mint American Gold Eagle coin sales recovered to 48,500 ounces in October, while gold sales from Australia's Perth Mint climbed 13 percent to 77,255 ounces.
Precious Metals analyst James Steel from HSBC reports that despite the strengthening of the U.S. dollar on good macro news, commitments of traders' data showed a 2.46 million ounce increase in net long speculative positions in gold to 10.68 million ounces in the most recent report available. Silver net long speculative positions increased by 6.3 million ounces to 130.7 million ounces. For platinum, net long positions increased by 157,800 ounces to 1,689,800 ounces, while palladium net long positions increased by 85,100 ounces to 2,740,200 ounces. Gold Market WeaknessA recent Pricewaterhouse Coopers report on junior miners summed the carnage the sector has sustained in the recent past. Market caps in the junior space have fallen to $6.5 billion from $20 billion in 2011, while trading volumes have fallen to 38 billion from 79 billion over the same period. Despite the severity of the decline, Pricewaterhouse Coopers commends the resiliency of juniors, to the surprise of the authors. Ernst & Young's report on third quarter merger and acquisition (M&A) activity shows a significant decline in value and volume transacted. According to the report, companies participating in the M&A sector are doing so mainly to take advantage of synergies to improve the bottom line, yet risk adversity is limiting the number of deals being made. Regardless, gold continues to be the sector with the largest number of deals: 55 in total. The big improvement in M&A activity was the rise of financial investors as main buyers of deals, highlighting that private capital has started to flow into the sector. Gold Market OpportunitiesChinese appetite for gold will continue to be the key gold price driver in the months and years ahead. According to Jeffrey Nichols, ever since China legalized private gold investment, demand has grown every year. The main rationale in China remains gold psyche as a store of wealth and inflation protector, especially as the Chinese middle class continues its extraordinary growth. But private investors are not the only sector accumulating gold in China; the People's Bank of China has been clear in its objective to support the Chinese yuan in growing to the stature of an official reserve and settlement currency, which would be likely accelerated by a rapid accumulation of gold reserves. The gold debate has crossed the line and turned argumentative according to the research team at Bullionvault. Numerous high profile articles, most recently in the Wall Street Journal, argue that gold should be eliminated as part of your portfolio with the main argument being that it has decreased in price. The fact that price is front and center of the debate shows the misunderstanding of gold as a uniquely valuable asset. David Rosenberg agrees with this view as he points out that inflation has been diligently scrutinized. According to Rosenberg, there is little objection to the fact that housing and food inflation are a serious threat at the moment. Yet gold no longer makes the front pages of newspapers. Back in 2011 when gold rose to $1,900, investors were kicking themselves for having missed the bull run. Now, with gold around the $1,300 mark, gold has been relegated to "page B7 news." When gold is on the front page you can count on all good news being priced in; when it is on page B7, which is reserved for unloved areas of the market. Gold Market ThreatsThe U.S. derivatives regulator Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reintroduced a plan to set caps on the number of contracts held by a single trader. However, far from benefitting market participants and defeating speculative trading, the rules will benefit the largest market participants, such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays. For these type of participants, the maximum size of positions could rise dramatically rather than become tighter, in specific cases as much as tenfold. In addition, Commissioner Bart Chilton, a strong proponent of position limits, is set to leave the agency in the near future, leaving a power vacuum that will likely be filled by people akin to the largest market participants. South Africa's Parliament has delayed until next year the adoption of changes to its mineral law. Senior miners in the country have voiced their concern on the measures being considered as they will hurt business and discourage investment. Among the changes being proposed, the African nation will have the right to a free 20 percent stake in all ventures considered to be "compelling." In addition, the government, through its Mines Minister, has the right to designate any mineral product for "local beneficiation" after considering "national development imperatives." The lack of clarity, timeframe, and proper consultation with the affected enterprises is the greatest concern to the local mining industry. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 08:47 AM PST
Mint cuts 2013 silver Eagle allocation, new supply crunch roils market This past week word reached USAGOLD that the Mint unexpectedly cut 2013 silver Eagle allocations by half to its authorized purchasers. The sudden tightening put a crimp in the supply chain for the popular coin, pushed wholesaler delivery dates into December and immediately drove premiums higher. With the already strong demand sure to amplify the developing shortage, a large chunk of the upcoming early December allocation will likely go to fill back orders. The Mint has scheduled availability of the first 2014 coins for the second week of January. The situation puts the market in short to no supply for the next two months – traditionally the busiest time of the year for investor gold and silver acquisitions. USAGOLD can still make quick delivery As has been the case in previous Eagle crunches for both silver and gold bullion coins, USAGOLD's supply lines remain intact (thanks to solid industry contacts nurtured over our many years in the gold business). We have 2013 silver Eagles in inventory and available for immediate delivery and at premiums slightly higher than before the arrival of this latest "year-end surprise" from the Mint. Be advised that even we do not have limitless supply. Orders will be filled, as always, on a first-come, first-served basis until the inventory runs out. If you have been thinking about adding silver Eagles to your holdings before the end of the year, you would be well-served to act before our inventory runs out. Once it does, we have no control over premium levels (assuming we can locate more coins). America's desire to own gold and silver bullion coins has not cooled with falling prices, and demand has been stronger than normal over the past few days with the latest price drop. Always a solid bellwether of public interest in gold and silver, Mint sales of 2013 American Eagle gold coins through October have surpassed the total for all of 2012, and 2013 silver Eagle sales have already surpassed last year's by over five million coins. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 08:46 AM PST
Mint cuts 2013 silver Eagle allocation, new supply crunch roils market This past week word reached USAGOLD that the Mint unexpectedly cut 2013 silver Eagle allocations by half to its authorized purchasers. The sudden tightening put a crimp in the supply chain for the popular coin, pushed wholesaler delivery dates into December and immediately drove premiums higher. With the already strong demand sure to amplify the developing shortage, a large chunk of the upcoming early December allocation will likely go to fill back orders. The Mint has scheduled availability of the first 2014 coins for the second week of January. The situation puts the market in short to no supply for the next two months – traditionally the busiest time of the year for investor gold and silver acquisitions. USAGOLD can still make quick delivery As has been the case in previous Eagle crunches for both silver and gold bullion coins, USAGOLD's supply lines remain intact (thanks to solid industry contacts nurtured over our many years in the gold business). We have 2013 silver Eagles in inventory and available for immediate delivery and at premiums slightly higher than before the arrival of this latest "year-end surprise" from the Mint. Be advised that even we do not have limitless supply. Orders will be filled, as always, on a first-come, first-served basis until the inventory runs out. If you have been thinking about adding silver Eagles to your holdings before the end of the year, you would be well-served to act before our inventory runs out. Once it does, we have no control over premium levels (assuming we can locate more coins). America's desire to own gold and silver bullion coins has not cooled with falling prices, and demand has been stronger than normal over the past few days with the latest price drop. Always a solid bellwether of public interest in gold and silver, Mint sales of 2013 American Eagle gold coins through October have surpassed the total for all of 2012, and 2013 silver Eagle sales have already surpassed last year's by over five million coins. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 08:40 AM PST by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.ca:
Gold closed down $23.90 to $1284.50 (comex closing time ). Silver was down 33 cents at $21.31. In the access market today at 5:15 pm tonight here are the final prices: gold: $1288.00 Seconds before the non farm payrolls, gold was smacked and treasuries were halted: a visit to the crime scene; |
| SD Weekly Metals & Markets: Are We Seeing Early Signs of a Silver Eagle Shortage? Posted: 09 Nov 2013 08:00 AM PST from silverdoctors: In this week’s Metals & Markets The Doc & Eric Dubin Discuss: 1. Employment and GDP Report: Fishy as heck- 932k dropped from labor force, unemployment rate RISES to 7.3%! |
| Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Posted: 09 Nov 2013 07:56 AM PST When one understands the widely pervasive but narrowly understood phenomenon of cognitive dissonance that permeates most of the Western world, it is not so difficult to put into context the disparity between demand for physical gold and silver and supply for the faux paper market. There is a growing sense for many that everything in the financial world is out of line, and way out of line for many others. |
| The Myth About Money, Credit & Gold Posted: 09 Nov 2013 07:40 AM PST by Chris Mayer, Laissez Faire Books:
It's a nice little story… except it's completely wrong. "Our standard account of monetary history is precisely backward," writes David Graeber in Debt: The First 5,000 Years. "We did not begin with barter, discover money and then eventually develop credit systems. It happened precisely the other way around." |
| Peter Schiff Warns U.S. Econcomy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared! - Video Posted: 09 Nov 2013 07:33 AM PST Fall of America & Fall of the dollar – US Economy Will Soon Collapse! Be Prepared! |
| Gold And Silver - Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Posted: 09 Nov 2013 07:03 AM PST When one understands the widely pervasive but narrowly understood phenomenon of cognitive dissonance that permeates most of the Western world, it is not so difficult to put into context the disparity between demand for physical gold ... Read More... |
| LAST HURRAH FOR MANIAC CENTRAL BANKERS, THE END GAME, GOLD & MORE Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:40 AM PST from KingWorldNews:
The suspension of disbelief is at work though, and it's very difficult to try to stay sane in this environment. But you have to remember that you've seen this movie before. As frustrating as it is, you can't start doing stupid things, and you have to know that this is a Potemkin village, but the chickens may not come home to roost for a while. That's the frustrating part. |
| Silver Eagles – Global Demand Rising Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:32 AM PST by MRH, SGT Report:
According to the US Mint they will be shutting down weekly allocations of American Silver Eagles sales beginning Monday December 9, 2013 and begin accepting orders for 2014 American Silver Eagles on Monday January 13, 2014 in order to prepare for the new 2014 American Silver Eagles. Last year the Mint shut down for two weeks in preparation from December 20 to January 7. One can only garner from this announcement one of two things: A) either they are having a hard time sourcing the required volume of silver needed or B) they are going to produce a significantly higher volume of product than last year. 2013 for the months of January and February the US Mint sold 10.76 million silver eagles or just over 25% of the total sales for 2013 (2013 currently stands 39.17 million with two months of accounting left in the year). This number also represents 31% of total sales for ALL of 2012. That is an amazing amount of silver to be sold in a very short period of time.
With global demand raging full-on who is to say what the numbers in January 2014 will look like. Who is to say that demand will not absolutely bury the sales figures in January 2013? I can say with certainty the demand is not decreasing. The premiums are not decreasing. The only thing that is decreasing is the price on the Comex. Which makes one wonder how that can be. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:31 AM PST Summary: Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term - on mixed signals. Gold sector cycle - down again as of 11/08. Read More... |
| Bookmark This Article: The Stock Market Will Crash Within 6 Months! Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:28 AM PST Until recently, I have not used the term “stock market crash”. I do not take using So writes Nicholas Santiago (investing.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Crash: A Prediction Of Epic Proportions. [The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]Santiago goes on to say in further edited excerpts: An Absolute Mess
A reckoning day will happen and for the first time in years I am seeing the epic signals clearly. I call this technical signal the Devil Tail Formation. It is something I have not seen in the charts since 2007. The likely scenario would be for it to happen in 2014 but there is a small chance it happens prior. The house of cards will unfortunately fall as the biggest bubble ever created crumbles. Let’s be clear about bubbles. They are all Federal Reserve induced. Every one in the history of the stock market has been a manipulation technique headed by the biggest bankers in the world. My other prediction for the future will be that at some point years out, there will be talk of bringing federal charges against the top Federal Reserve officials as the people demand it. I have said my piece. Have a wonderful and happy evening. [Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]*http://www.investing.com/analysis/crash:-a-prediction-of-epic-proportions-189272 (© 2007-2013 Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved) Related Articles: 1. These 2 Stock Market Metrics Make Me Feel Uneasy – What About You? 
It's been an amazing run in the stock market but…I start to feel a bit uneasy about things when I see all news reported as good news, because it either means the economy is getting better or more QE is coming. The fact, though, is that the market is just driving higher on what looks like sheer optimism of continued QE and little else. You can see this optimism in two indicators you'll recognize. Read More » 2. 4 Clues That a Stock Market Collapse Is Coming
You might be well advised to keep your powder dry and your portfolio small – or even be tempted to sell everything and wait for the storm to blow over [given the 4 clues put forth in this article]. Read More » 3. Bernanke Has Created the Mother of ALL Stock Market Bubbles – Here's Why  We have NEVER been this overextended above this line at any point in the last 20 years. Indeed, if you compare where the S&P 500 is relative to this line, we're even MORE overbought that we were going into the 2007 peak at the top of the housing bubble. Read More » In the 7 years that the Greedometer has been used there have been zero missed calls, and zero false alarms. The 7th warning began in January and in late February, the Greedometer gauge reached an epic 7900rpm which is marginally higher than the 7700rpm maximum reading seen 3 months prior to the S&P500 peak in October 2007. [This article outlines the development and successes of the Greedometer and the new Mini Greedometer and what they are predicting for the stock market in 2013.] Words: 1420 5. It's Time to Apply the "Greater Fool Theory" and Sell Your Winners to All Those Fools The Dow has surpassed its all-time record high – set in October 2007 – and the S&P 500 is not far behind? Is this the early stage of another great bull market? Let's look back at the two previous times when the S&P 500 set new all-time highs and see if we can learn something. Wait…first put your "this time it's different" glasses on. OK, let's go. Words: 430; Charts: 1 6. Watch Out For Falling Stocks! Here's Why The stock markets make no sense. They have literally lost touch with reality. Divergences between fundamentals, confidence and the valuation of markets are large [and, as such,] cannot last for long….The only question is how…and how quickly….this correction occurs. Words: 261 The post Bookmark This Article: The Stock Market Will Crash Within 6 Months! appeared first on munKNEE dot.com. |
| Gold Silver Freedom Mini Doc From David Silva Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:20 AM PST from silver investor.com: |
| ‘It’s only a matter of time before gold makes a RUN’ — Marc Andrews Posted: 09 Nov 2013 06:00 AM PST from Gold Seek: Marc Andrews, the President/CEO/Director of Consolidated Goldfields speaks with Vanessa Collette about the potential for gold over the next few months and how that will impact his company. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 04:00 AM PST The very big picture of how the S&P and corporate America got here... WITHOUT a doubt the underlying fundamental support for a massive and growing phase of market speculation is now central-bank policy, corporate profits, and propping, writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole. That becomes more dangerous with every week that it lurches forward. Once again, the chart that proves this in no uncertain terms:  Note the 3 humps on the S&P 500 (orange). Again we review... Hump #1 was a massive speculative surge that separated the stock market from all reasonable measures of fair valuation. It was the terminal phase of a great secular bull market in US stocks. Hump #2 was not over-valued compared to corporate profits, which were generally instigated by the Greenspan inflation that began in 2001. From this inflation sprang a massive bubble in commercial credit. Wall Street took over and sold the inflation to the world in the form of dangerous securitized 'investment' instruments. As long as it worked, corporate America flourished; especially financial corporate America. After the liquidations that inevitably followed Humps 1 and 2, the Bernanke Fed instigated the mother of all monetary inflation attempts as ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) was initiated in December 2008 and remains an accepted, almost forgotten part of the macro landscape to this day. Add to this an automated regimen of Treasury and MBS 'asset' purchases (despite the 'taper' jawboning that periodically hits the media) in an attempt to keep long term interest rates down and deleverage the previous bubble, and you have policy working over time. Introducing Hump #3, who's time is coming due if it is to match the roughly 5 year lifespans of Humps 1 and 2. The point of the chart above is to illustrate that those with an agenda to ride the trend and look smart are correct when they state that the US stock market is not particularly over valued...if one shuts off one's brain and accepts policy (blue Monetary Base line, which is but one of several money supply measures) as being at all normal or healthy. Corporate profits (green) are doing great. All's good as the S&P 500 is merely keeping up with its fundamentals. But these fundamentals are 100% dependent upon some quasi financial institution's will or ability to continue the inflation. Or, as with Hump's 1 and 2, the public's willingness to continue the speculation. A secular bull market blew out in 2000 as the final speculative surge by the public and wildly imprudent financial 'professionals' just expired and fell apart. In 2007 something went wrong with the Ponzi racket certain big institutions had going, in which they enriched themselves at the expense of the public through an officially supported commercial credit bubble. Today we are asked to believe that policy, profits and propping can go on indefinitely, and in the most optimistic views, into a new secular bull market. The public generally believes that a new bull market began early this year after having sat out the first 4 years of the still-ongoing cyclical bull that began in March of 2009. This is going to end very badly, whether sooner or later. March of 2014 is 5 years, but there is no guarantee this bull will reach that nice, round number. The following graphics courtesy of Sentimentrader...  The public (largely dumb money) is now lovin' itself some stock market.  In fact, in the tradition of the great blow off in 1999/2000, big tech is the center of the speculative attention. This aligns with the recent post A Cyclical 'Mini Me' to a Big Secular Event. This is not a new era, and it is a bubble; in policy making or more accurately in market participants' willingness to believe in policy making. Ben Bernanke is the same man that everybody hated in 2011. The Fed is the same chronically inflating entity. It is just that this go round the inflation is 'working' toward the ends that would appear to benefit the most people, and as with previous inflation-instigated speculations (in crude oil and silver for example) speculators are jumping on this one. Go have a look at the charts of crude in 2008 and silver in 2011. Or how about the Nasdaq 100 in 2000?  This chart was produced in NFTRH 3 weeks ago to illustrate the extent of participation in this echo bubble (again, the bubble is in policy, not so much stock prices this time), which is a cyclical version of the secular thing that blew out in 2000. Does NDX look vulnerable to you? How about when considering the Sentimentrader graphs directly above? Or Rydex cash levels (a lack thereof)? Or current margin levels being employed by stock market speculators? The list goes on. Bottom line? Bubbles can go on and on until they expire and meet a furious end. I am sure many people think they will get out at exactly the right time. It's just a game of musical chairs. Was yesterday's hard drop anything to be concerned about? Well, recent high flying bubble stocks like FB and TSLA are showing some cracks (and topping patterns). MSFT seems to be blowing upward with hot money thinking it better get a hold of the likes of dependable old Mr. Softie, leaving the high flyers and high valuations behind. This bubble can endure out to next spring by my work. It can also end tomorrow...or yesterday. The point is that the Federal Reserve, through its automated and destructive policy, has indeed instigated another bubble with speculation running high. A big change is coming. Don't get played. Forget the 3 P's; go with the 3 C's...Caution, Clarity and eventually, Capitalization. NFTRH is managing events in a clear and grounded manner, in the weekly letter and by in-week updates at the site. It seems clear that one year from now the landscape is going to look very different than it does today. The only way to be in alignment with changes is to see and evaluate the potential and timing for these changes in an ongoing manner, subjecting the analysis to various acid tests along the way. You arrive at your destination intact and ready to capitalize through unbiased and consistent work, not through predictions or holding to dogma through thick and thin. |
| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 04:00 AM PST The very big picture of how the S&P and corporate America got here... WITHOUT a doubt the underlying fundamental support for a massive and growing phase of market speculation is now central-bank policy, corporate profits, and propping, writes Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole. That becomes more dangerous with every week that it lurches forward. Once again, the chart that proves this in no uncertain terms: Note the 3 humps on the S&P 500 (orange). Again we review... Hump #1 was a massive speculative surge that separated the stock market from all reasonable measures of fair valuation. It was the terminal phase of a great secular bull market in US stocks. Hump #2 was not over-valued compared to corporate profits, which were generally instigated by the Greenspan inflation that began in 2001. From this inflation sprang a massive bubble in commercial credit. Wall Street took over and sold the inflation to the world in the form of dangerous securitized 'investment' instruments. As long as it worked, corporate America flourished; especially financial corporate America. After the liquidations that inevitably followed Humps 1 and 2, the Bernanke Fed instigated the mother of all monetary inflation attempts as ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) was initiated in December 2008 and remains an accepted, almost forgotten part of the macro landscape to this day. Add to this an automated regimen of Treasury and MBS 'asset' purchases (despite the 'taper' jawboning that periodically hits the media) in an attempt to keep long term interest rates down and deleverage the previous bubble, and you have policy working over time. Introducing Hump #3, who's time is coming due if it is to match the roughly 5 year lifespans of Humps 1 and 2. The point of the chart above is to illustrate that those with an agenda to ride the trend and look smart are correct when they state that the US stock market is not particularly over valued...if one shuts off one's brain and accepts policy (blue Monetary Base line, which is but one of several money supply measures) as being at all normal or healthy. Corporate profits (green) are doing great. All's good as the S&P 500 is merely keeping up with its fundamentals. But these fundamentals are 100% dependent upon some quasi financial institution's will or ability to continue the inflation. Or, as with Hump's 1 and 2, the public's willingness to continue the speculation. A secular bull market blew out in 2000 as the final speculative surge by the public and wildly imprudent financial 'professionals' just expired and fell apart. In 2007 something went wrong with the Ponzi racket certain big institutions had going, in which they enriched themselves at the expense of the public through an officially supported commercial credit bubble. Today we are asked to believe that policy, profits and propping can go on indefinitely, and in the most optimistic views, into a new secular bull market. The public generally believes that a new bull market began early this year after having sat out the first 4 years of the still-ongoing cyclical bull that began in March of 2009. This is going to end very badly, whether sooner or later. March of 2014 is 5 years, but there is no guarantee this bull will reach that nice, round number. The following graphics courtesy of Sentimentrader... The public (largely dumb money) is now lovin' itself some stock market. In fact, in the tradition of the great blow off in 1999/2000, big tech is the center of the speculative attention. This aligns with the recent post A Cyclical 'Mini Me' to a Big Secular Event. This is not a new era, and it is a bubble; in policy making or more accurately in market participants' willingness to believe in policy making. Ben Bernanke is the same man that everybody hated in 2011. The Fed is the same chronically inflating entity. It is just that this go round the inflation is 'working' toward the ends that would appear to benefit the most people, and as with previous inflation-instigated speculations (in crude oil and silver for example) speculators are jumping on this one. Go have a look at the charts of crude in 2008 and silver in 2011. Or how about the Nasdaq 100 in 2000? This chart was produced in NFTRH 3 weeks ago to illustrate the extent of participation in this echo bubble (again, the bubble is in policy, not so much stock prices this time), which is a cyclical version of the secular thing that blew out in 2000. Does NDX look vulnerable to you? How about when considering the Sentimentrader graphs directly above? Or Rydex cash levels (a lack thereof)? Or current margin levels being employed by stock market speculators? The list goes on. Bottom line? Bubbles can go on and on until they expire and meet a furious end. I am sure many people think they will get out at exactly the right time. It's just a game of musical chairs. Was yesterday's hard drop anything to be concerned about? Well, recent high flying bubble stocks like FB and TSLA are showing some cracks (and topping patterns). MSFT seems to be blowing upward with hot money thinking it better get a hold of the likes of dependable old Mr. Softie, leaving the high flyers and high valuations behind. This bubble can endure out to next spring by my work. It can also end tomorrow...or yesterday. The point is that the Federal Reserve, through its automated and destructive policy, has indeed instigated another bubble with speculation running high. A big change is coming. Don't get played. Forget the 3 P's; go with the 3 C's...Caution, Clarity and eventually, Capitalization. NFTRH is managing events in a clear and grounded manner, in the weekly letter and by in-week updates at the site. It seems clear that one year from now the landscape is going to look very different than it does today. The only way to be in alignment with changes is to see and evaluate the potential and timing for these changes in an ongoing manner, subjecting the analysis to various acid tests along the way. You arrive at your destination intact and ready to capitalize through unbiased and consistent work, not through predictions or holding to dogma through thick and thin. |
| Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Posted: 09 Nov 2013 03:56 AM PST When one understands the widely pervasive but narrowly understood phenomenon of cognitive dissonance that permeates most of the Western world, it is not so difficult to put into context the disparity between demand for physical gold and silver and supply for the faux paper market. There is a growing sense for many that everything in the financial world is out of line, and way out of line for many others. |
| Eurozone: Bubbles Vs. Deflation Posted: 09 Nov 2013 03:38 AM PST Germany's DAX disconnects from economy as prices slump... A SMALL group of central-bank chiefs can meet today in private and wield unprecedented power over global markets, economies, and wealth distribution, writes Gary Dorsch, editor of the Global Money Trends newsletter, ahead of last week's Eurozone rate cut to a new record low of 0.25%. Central bankers are held accountable to the ruling politicians that in most cases have no respect for the principle of sound money. Instead, in Europe, the UK, Japan, the US, and elsewhere, central bankers have become intricately linked to monetizing government debts, and financing the expansion of the welfare state. As such, disciplined and independent central banking, a cornerstone to any hope for sound money and credit, has been relegated to the dustbin of history. Central banking – ostensibly designed to combat high levels of inflation and promote economic growth, while overseeing the stability of the banking industry, has instead, morphed into technocratic planning boards that are constantly involved in rigging the value of the financial markets. Their principal modus of operandi is to encourage risk taking in the local stock markets, through massive injections of ultra-cheap liquidity. However, the result isn't better economic conditions, but rather the expansion of massive bubbles in various financial markets. In turn, central bankers have widened the wealth gap between the owners of equities, and the rest of the struggling population whose wages are sliding backwards, and is increasingly seeking out assistance through welfare programs. Historically, the value of the stock market reflected the dynamics of the local economy, and would influence the social mood of the populace. A stock market that is booming would signal an up-and-coming economy that would be followed by increased business investment and the creation of good paying jobs. Rising share prices boost the fortunes of about 10% of households in the country, and triggers a greater propensity to spend for goods and services – otherwise known as the "trickle down" effect. Therefore, keeping a constant vigil on the behavior of the stock market – has become the raison d'être of central banks. In earlier times, stocks traded on the local stock exchange used to track or even anticipate the nation's business cycle. But that reliable role as a leading indicator began to seriously break down after the financial crisis of 2008. Since then, because of the hallucinogenic effects of "quantitative easing" (QE) – stock markets are no longer reflections of the health of the local economies or forecasting mechanisms of the business cycles. Instead, they are just slices of ownership in specific companies that are unreliable gauges of anything but the underlying strength of the companies they represent, their dividend payments and buybacks, and the schizophrenic mind-set of the traders who buy and sell the shares.  Supported by anecdotal signs of a recovery in the Euro zone factory sector – the exchange traded fund for the EuroStoxx Index, (NYSE ticker: EZU), has managed to recoup most of its losses from the Bear market of 2011-12. EZU rebounded to $40 per share in October '13, capping a 54% gain from the low of July 2012. Yet fifteen months ago, FX traders were piling up bets on the break-up of the 17-country currency bloc, and EZU had tumbled to as low as $25.50 per share, and nearing its lowest levels since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis. However, with a few ad-libbed words, Europe's chief central banker, Mario Draghi changed the course of the Eurozone debt crisis. "The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. And believe me, it will be enough," Draghi warned on a warm summer day in London. That was enough to stabilize the Euro at $1.200 and stop EZU's bear market in its tracks. After six weeks of frenzied backroom bargaining, the ECB said it would buy unlimited amounts of sovereign bonds of troubled debtor countries that sign up for strict austerity measures – through its Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT). For equity traders markets, the OMT was like a nuclear weapon: the mere threat of its use was enough to fuel a 15-month rally that lifted EZU to as high as $40 per share and helped to support the Euro's rally to $1.3800 in late October '13. Draghi declared it a master stroke. "It's really very hard not to state that OMT has been probably the most successful monetary policy measure undertaken in recent time," he said in June '13. Draghi's verbal intervention coincided with a bottom in theEuro zone's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) that gauges the health of the factory sector. The factory PMI bottomed out at the 44.5-level in June '12 and rebounded to the 51.3-level by October '13, signaling that Europe's longest postwar economic recession has ended. New orders for industrial goods increased for the fourth month in a row and factory output increased in Spain, Italy and Ireland meaning the bloc's nascent recovery is becoming more broad-based.In this case, traders can point to the chart showing the direction of the EuroStoxx markets and the gauge of the local factory sector moving in synchronization, as would historically be the case.  Yet the rally in the broad based EuroStoxx index is somewhat deceptive. Most of the EuroStoxx's gains were powered by the steaming locomotive – Germany's DAX-30 index, which has climbed above the 9,000-level – it's highest in history. The disparities of market performance are wide. Germany's DAX index is hovering 13% above its pre-crisis highs of 2007, and stands out far above the rest of the pack. In stark contrast, France's CAC-40 index is still trading -31% below its 2007 high, Spain's Ibex-35 index is -39% lower and Italy's Mib-40 index is a whopping -57% below its peak levels of six years ago. In March '13, a study produced by the Vanguard brokerage firm, concluded that fundamentals – corporate earnings, profit margins and gross domestic product (GDP) growth, are useless when it comes to forecasting stock market trends. For instance, Germany's blue-chip DAX-30 index is 18% higher since the start of 2013, and is 50% higher since the beginning of June 2012, even though is $3.4-trillion economy expanded at a paltry 0.9% annualized rate. The big disconnect is explained by the fact that German companies listed in the DAX index earn 70% of their revenues from outside the country. That's increasingly the case for the Euro-Stoxx-600 companies – 33% of their sales in 2013 are with emerging markets – from China, to Turkey, to Brazil, or three times greater than in 1997. Sales from within the Eurozone fell to 46% of transactions this year – and down from 51% in 2012 and 71% in 1997. Still, Germany's DAX-30 index defied weak economic data, and topped the 9,000-point mark for the first time in its 25-year history. What's not widely recognized is that the DAX rally is primarily fuelled by the torrent of cheap money flowing from the printing press of the Bank of Japan. Alongside the DAX's parabolic surge, the Euro has also rallied from a 10-year low of ¥96 in July '12 to as high as ¥134 in Oct '13. Carry traders are borrowing Japanese Yen and swapping into German equity indexes. Currency carry traders are keen to see the DAX index surge to 10,000-points, even though it's unlikely that German DAX profits can keep pace.  According to the PMI surveys, the Eurozone's factory sector is operating at its best levels for 2-½-years. However, the accuracy of the PMI surveys should be measured with a grain of salt. The PMI gauges are wildly at odds with other macro-economic indicators that suggest the Eurozone's economy may be headed for a "Lost Decade" similar to Japan's experience. In August, exports from the 17-member Eurozone were -5.5% lower than a year earlier, and are at risk of shrinking further if the Euro continues to climb against the Chinese yuan, the Japanese Yen, the US-Dollar, and more exotic emerging currencies. Yet currency traders continue to bid the share prices of the Euro-Stoxx companies higher, despite signs that their overseas sales could be shrinking. On Nov 5th, Brussels warned that it is too early to claim victory in the fight against recession saying there will be a time lag until 2015 before the pickup in economic activity leads to a fall in unemployment. The EU commission trimmed its forecast for the Euro zone's growth rate to 1.1% for next year and said the jobless rate will remain stuck at 12.2%. The legacy of Europe's debt crisis – namely fiscal austerity – would continue to act as a brake on growth. Of the big-4 Eurozone countries, only Germany is forecast to grow by more than 1% in 2014. Spain is expected to grow 0.5%, Italy by 0.7% and France by 0.9%. The problem for the Eurozone economy is – as with its monetary policy, one exchange rate may not suit all. Each individual country has its own threshold of pain – for French exporters, sales begin to dwindle when the Euro trades above $1.22, on average. For Italy, exports are adversely impacted when the Euro is above $1.16. In that case, French and Italian exporters must cut workers' wages, in order to compete with Germany, whose threshold of pain for the Euro exchnag rate is estimated to be at $1.5400 or higher.  Yet interestingly enough, even with the Euro trading between $1.2800 and $1.3500, German exporters are faring no better than the bloc's average. German exports of goods and services fell to €85.2 billion in August, or -5.4% lower than a year earlier. For the past three years, German exports have been stuck within a range between €80 billion and €99 billion per month. Yet the German DAX-30 index has divorced itself from shrinking year over year figures for its key export markets. Instead, it's soared in a parabolic surge to above the 9,000-level – thanks to the financial engineering of the Bank of Japan. In a Bubble, valuations run far away from the fundamentals in the economy, the market or individual stocks. It's driven by momentum, as investors who have profited from the market's gains greedily chase more. Investors who have been on the sidelines decide they must join the party. As long the BoJ's and the Fed's liquidity spigot is wide open, carry traders see very little risk. It's like a giant game of musical chairs, and it's time to dance while the music is playing. Everyone thinks they're smart enough to know when the music is going to stop. A tsunami of liquidity can blur the pain of economic stagnation and fuel euphoria in the stock market. But according to a report published by the European Commission, "household incomes in the Eurozone have declined since the financial crisis began in 2008, and the risk of poverty is constantly growing." Young adults, unemployed women and single mothers are especially at risk of sliding into chronic poverty. According to the EU's report, 24% of Europeans are either at risk of falling into poverty, or are severely materially deprived, and 36% would be unable to cope with unexpected expenses. With sinking tax revenues and rising welfare payments, many countries simply lack the finances to protect households from the fallout of the crisis. Jobless rates are rising in Greece (27.6%) and Spain (26.6%), Italy (12.5%), and France (10.9%).  Economists are debating what the sharp drop in the Eurozone's inflation rate means for the broader economy. The latest data from EuroStat shows the consumer price inflation rate has more than halved, from 2.6% in September 2012 to 0.7% in Sept 2013, marking the slowest rate of increase since the depths of the global financial crisis. That's far below the ECB's target of 2%. More troubling, consumer prices are now falling in Greece, while Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are all on the cusp of price deflation. Much of the downward spiral in consumer prices can be linked to the slide in the commodity markets.Earlier this week, the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), a basket of 17-equally weighted commodities, fell to the 375-level, priced in Euros. That's -15% lower compared with a year ago.Likewise, the specter of deflation now haunts the Eurozone. Therefore, if the Euro continues to climb above $1.3500 vs the US$ it could deal a double whammy – stifling exports and ushering in deflation. The previous time the Euro traded above $1.3500, in Feb '13, ECB chief Mario Draghi tried to knock it lower through jawboning. "The exchange rate is not a policy target, but it is important for growth and price stability. We want to see if the appreciation is sustained, and if it alters our assessment of the risks to price stability." The comments helped to push the Euro to as low as $1.2800. However, a major reason for the Euro's buoyancy is the sharp drop of excess liquidity in the Eurozone's banking system. It's rapidly drying up. Since May '12, it declined from as high as €803 billion to as little as €158 billion this week. Meanwhile, the money supply in Japan has mushroomed to ¥182-Trillion, and the US's high octane MZM money supply hit an all-time high of $12.2-trillion last week, up 12% since the Fed launched QE-3. The Bank of Japan is injecting $70 billion worth of Yen each month into the Tokyo money market, and fueling the Euro /Yen carry trade. The Fed is printing $85 billion per month, and exerting upward pressure on the Euro. The ECB has refrained from such radical steps. It bought over €200 billion in government bonds at the height of the Euro crisis in 2010 and 2011, but sterilized the intervention by draining an equal amount of Euros from the banking system to keep the money supply stable. From Dec '11 through Feb '12 – the ECB flooded the Eurozone banks with €1-trillion of Long-Term Repo Operations (LTRO's). However, the European banks have already repaid 80% of the LTRO injections – thus reducing the level of excess liquidity – cash beyond what lenders need to cover their day-to-day operations – in the system further, to the current €158 billion.  However, if the Euro climbs towards $1.400 or higher, and if global commodity prices continue to slide on a sustained basis, it could usher the plague of deflation in the Eurozone. A particularly troublesome aspect of deflation is that it limits the ability of countries like Ireland, Italy, and Portugal to reduce their public debt burdens. These countries all have public debt ratios of around 125% of GDP and they are still building up their debt piles. As the Japanese experience over the past two decades would attest, deflation can constitute the strongest of headwinds to economic recovery. Not only does it incentivize consumers to delay spending, it also increases the real burden of repaying debts. This would seem to be the last thing that a struggling European economic periphery needs. The ECB has few options to counter the deflation threat – as it's blocked by treaty from buying European sovereign debt (QE) directly. The ECB could offer to extend more LTRO's to banks or lower the repo lending rate to 0.25%. However, Eurozone banks are in no mood to borrow and lend. European banks are saddled with €1.2-trillion, of Non-performing loans (NPL's) and the amount of toxic loans increased by €100 billion in the past 12 months. Loans in default have increased from $703 billion in 2008, spurred by bad debts in Italy, Greece, Spain and Ireland. British banks are sitting on $224 billion of NPL's, Spanish banks with $227 billion, and Germany banks with $245 billion. The ECB has an untested weapon , however – negative deposit rates. Banks usually park their excess liquidity at the central bank and normally earn interest on this money. However, at the moment, the interest rate on these funds is 0% at the ECB. However, European banks themselves could soon be asked to pay interest to the ECB for the privilege of parking their excess cash at the central bank. On Oct 14th, Malta's central bank head Josef Bonnici said the ECB is prepared to introduce the negative deposit rate."It has consequences that should be taken into account, but it is possible to go negative and we are prepared to go negative," Bonnici declared, adding that "there are pluses and minuses to this negative rate." Earlier this year, on June 18th, ECB chief Draghi said, "Another measure that we have looked at with an open mind was to consider the possibility of having a negative rate on our deposit facility. We will continue reflecting on all these measures and we are ready to tackle (them) with all the unintended consequences they may entail." Negative deposit rates, therefore, may be the ECB's best hope to knock the Euro lower in the immediate future, and stave off the specter of deflation. In theory, negative rates could push banks in Germany, the Netherlands, France and Austria, which have the most cash lodged with Europe's central bank, to reject paying a fee on their deposits in favor of lending to peripheral countries such as Spain, Portugal and Italy, making it cheaper for small and medium-sized businesses to borrow money, thereby spurring economic activity. If banks in the core of the Eurozone- Germany, the Netherlands, France and Austria, lowered interest rates on retail deposits, customers might choose to spend their money instead of stashing it in the bank, which would also provide an economic boost. If the ECB decides to do nothing, and kicks the can down the road, it would risk allowing the BoJ's and the Fed's money printing operations to push-up the value of the Euro to $1.40 or above, which in turn, would risk the return of a triple-dip recession, beset by deflation. Yet if the ECB decides to enforce negative interest rates, it might force European banks into making more bad loans. In any event, traders in the high flying German DAX can always rely on the support of the Euro /Yen carry trade for at least another year, to expand the DAX bubble towards 10,000.
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| Posted: 09 Nov 2013 02:30 AM PST by Andy Hoffman, MilesFranklin.com:
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| Gold And Silver – Cognitive Disconnect Between Physical And Paper Posted: 09 Nov 2013 01:30 AM PST When one understands the widely pervasive but narrowly understood phenomenon of cognitive dissonance that permeates most of the Western world, it is not so difficult to put into context the disparity between demand for physical gold and silver and supply for the faux paper market. There is a growing sense for many that everything in the financial world is out of line, and way out of line for many others. Cognitive dissonance: an inner need to maintain harmony in one's attitudes and beliefs while avoiding disharmony, [dissonance]. When a conflict arises that produces a sense of inner discomfort about one's beliefs or attitudes over something that promotes an alteration of those same beliefs and attitudes, there is a driving need to restore the inner balance or calm. In other words, it is easier to go along in order to get along.
Despite this recent and brazen form of theft from people's bank accounts, the money on deposit in banks continues to rise, begging to be stolen by the bankers, [and they will steal it, count on it]. It would seem these kinds of situations would cause people to close out brokerage accounts and bank accounts, but it is not happening. Detroit's pensioners may be lucky to receive 16 cents for the dollar of what they expected to collect, and every state is grossly underfunded for public pensions. When pensioners get hit across the country, it will be viewed like a Black Swan event: "Who could have seen it coming?" Thank the politicians who keep raising the debt ceiling, allowing government to shut down, and then raise the [nonexistent] "ceiling" and resume spending with abandon.
How can the insatiable appetite for the physical metal be subservient to the corrupt LBMA and COMEX? There is a war going on, one that has already been lost by the West to a yet to be declared victorious East/BRICS. The Western central banking system is choking on the fiat of its own making, force-feeding their same fiat down the debt-ridden throats of lesser countries like Cyprus, Greece, Ireland, et al. Then there has been the theft of gold from Libya, once Gaddafi was disposed of, and from Somalia, to help satisfy Germany's demand for the return of its gold. There are reports of allocated gold accounts that no longer have the gold, stolen from the account holders who fear going public for a variety of reasons. The Obama regime, led by a Nobel Peace Prize recipient, the leading advocate for war for any [false] reason, was stopped cold by Russia, and in the process, the US was abandoned by its partner in crime, UK. This happened, most likely, because Russia reminded the UK from where its source for winter heating fuel comes. The West is in a relentless state of decline matched by the increasing rise in status and power of the East/BRICS nations, with gold being the ultimate trump card. China is by far the largest buyer of gold on the market. Do you think it has any interest in seeing the price of gold go to $2,000, or higher? As a huge buyer, China has a vested interest in seeing the price of gold where it is, not caring if it continues lower, which is even better.
All the news announcements of which country has increased their gold buying, how many tonnes of gold does China actually own, record sales for gold and silver coins, empty or nearly empty COMEX gold holdings, all validate why the price of gold and silver will eventually go much higher. However, it has little to no bearing on the price of gold, and no impact on Western central bankers and all the unelected organizations that rule the Western financial world and governments, [Basel, BIS, IMF]. This is a behind the scenes change of players, literally, on the world's stage, and the New World Order elite are doing what they can to fight off the inevitable, steal as much as possible before the end arrives, and jockey for position, if possible, even as a bit player lording over the ashes of another fallen empire, as it were. It will be RIP USA. The American people do not see this coming.
The best advice always has been and always will be, "Follow the money." The Western "money" is imaginary, but few are willing to see the financial emperor "is wearing no clothes." Cognitive dissonance works in favor of the money changers, and they rely on it. Those who choose to hold the fiat will end up with the value of all fiats, ultimately. Those who choose to follow the true money will continue to buy gold and silver. We each are captains of our own ship. Those in control of the helm are the buyers and holders of real money. Everyone else is sailing on a ship of fools. It may be fool-hardy to look at charts of an increasingly minor factor on the gold/silver landscape, but we have no way of charting what is unseen. If the arrival of the end game creates an overnight several hundred-dollar gap up in gold, those who own and continue to buy the physical will be immediate beneficiaries, rewarded for their patience and willingness to not get caught in the eventual maelstrom of reality coming to the fore. It may also be possible to be positioned in futures for a turn in market trend before any such upheaval occurs. No one knows how any of this will play out, so for now, best to play whatever opportunity may be available from reading current market activity. The trend is down, and price continues to show bouts of strong selling. That said, the last two weeks had some sizeable daily sell-offs, but the net effect has been minimal against the gains of the two-week preceding. It takes time for any market to base, in preparation for a sustained reversal of trend, and gold may be in that process. Price is holding at a band of support. What is absent is ongoing buying that can lift price above the swing high at "A."
There was a sharp increase in the level of volume for the last two days on the chart. The closes are on the lower end of the range, and this says sellers are in control. What sellers need now is continuation lower to take advantage of what appears to be a weakened market. How price reacts next week will provide an important clue.
Silver looks relatively more promising because the decline is holding better than gold's.
The character of the silver daily is better than that of daily gold. The decline from 23 was fast, but the extent of the downside has been somewhat muted, by comparison. There is no reason to buy silver, or gold futures, at current levels, for additional downside cannot be ruled out.
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| Stunning 90 Tons Of Paper Gold Used To Smash Gold Market Posted: 09 Nov 2013 01:00 AM PST from KingWorldNews:
On the heels of continued volatility in global markets, a 42-year market veteran told King World News that a stunning "90 tons" of paper gold selling was used to create the smash in the gold market today. Hathaway, who is one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today when it comes to gold, and whose fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating, also discussed what people should expect next in the gold and silver markets. Hathaway: "You get these attacks (on gold) surrounding these data releases, like this morning's employment report, and there were 90 tons of synthetic supply dropped on the market, met by a lot of physical buying.” |
| Which Is the World’s Safest Major Currency – You’ll Be Surprised Posted: 08 Nov 2013 04:04 PM PST
So writes Simon Black (sovereignman.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Here's some hard data on the 'safest' fiat currency. [The following article is presented by Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com and www.munKNEE.com and the FREE Market Intelligence Report newsletter (sample here – register here) and may have been edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and/or reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.]Black goes on to say in further edited, and paraphrased in some instances) excerpts: What Makes a ‘Safe’ Currency? A nation's currency is issued by its central bank and a central bank is structured like any other bank– it has assets and liabilities. On the asset side of the balance sheet are things like government bonds and gold….Its liabilities include the nation's money supply, technically known as central bank 'notes'. Look at those US dollars, Canadian dollars, British pounds, etc. in your wallet. You'll see they're actually 'notes' issued by the central bank, i.e. liabilities. 1. A Central Bank’s capital ratio: Just like any other bank, healthy central banks hold portfolios of high quality assets and those assets should exceed liabilities by a substantial margin. This is known as a bank's capital ratio, and it represents a bank's margin of safety in the event of a crisis. Consequently, 'safe' currencies are issued by well-capitalized central banks with a high capital ratio. 2. A government’s balance sheet: It's also critical to check the government's balance sheet [because] central banks that get in trouble will require a government (i.e. taxpayer) bailout and heavily indebted governments won't have the ability to do this. The U.S. Dollar [The two points above] automatically eliminate the U.S. dollar because the Federal Reserve's capital ratio is a laughable 1.53% and, since the U.S. government's debt is nearly $17 trillion, there's no chance Uncle Sam can bail out the Fed.The British Pound, Euro, Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar This reasoning also eliminates the British pound, euro, and yen. Even the Canadian dollar is not in good shape given the country's debt level and the razor-thin capital (0.53%) at the Bank of Canada. The Singapore Dollar Singapore is an interesting case. In its just-published annual report, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced that it lost $8 billion last year trying to keep its currency depressed against the US dollar. This is astounding… and suggests more than anything that this absurd dollar-centric fiat system is on the way out. Singapore's central bank balance sheet is still in much better condition than the West with a 7.2% capital ratio and the government there has zero net debt, so the Singapore dollar is far safer than the dollar or euro. The Safest Major Currency Is the Norwegian krone Looking at the numbers, the answer is simple. It's the Norwegian krone.
In a paper currency system controlled by a tiny banking elite, the Norwegian krone is as 'low risk' as it gets. (Bear in mind, however, that this analysis does not suggest that the Norwegian krone is ideal for speculation or investment gain… but rather the fiat currency with the sturdiest fundamentals in the event of a global crisis.) [Editor's Note: The author's views and conclusions in the above article are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original post. Furthermore, the views, conclusions and any recommendations offered in this article are not to be construed as an endorsement of such by the editor.]*http://www.sovereignman.com/finance/heres-some-hard-data-on-the-safest-fiat-currency-12460/ (© Copyright 2012 Sovereign Man, All rights reserved) Related Articles: 1. Shift From U.S. Dollar As World Reserve Currency Underway – What Will This Mean for America? 
Today, more than 60% of all foreign currency reserves in the world are in U.S. dollars – but there are big changes on the horizon…Some of the biggest economies on earth have been making agreements with each other to move away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade…[and this shift] is going to have massive implications for the U.S. economy. [Let me explain what is underway.] Words: 1583 Read More »  The least imperfect monetary system by which civilized nations can conduct their business is the classical gold standard – a system in which every major nation defines its currency as a weight unit of gold. [Let me explain.] Words: 890 Read More » 3. Fiat Currencies from Around the World: An Interactive Quiz Paper money was first used by the Chinese during the Tang Dynasty in 806 AD–500 years before Europe began printing money in the 17th century. It would be another 100 years before America started circulating a national paper currency…. How familiar are you with banknotes from around the world? Read More » The post Which Is the World’s Safest Major Currency – You’ll Be Surprised appeared first on munKNEE dot.com. |
The combination of rising interest rates here in the US on the heels of a stronger-than-expected headline number for the jobs report and a higher Dollar left gold without much support in today’s session.
The ECB's recent rate-cut action (and especially its effects on the Markets) is but yet another Manifestation of the Most Powerful Ongoing Trend increasingly determining Major Markets Performance.
Gold finished Friday down -18.20 to 1289.00 on heavy volume, while silver dropped -0.16 to 21.50 also on heavy volume. The gold/silver ratio dropped -0.40 to 59.95. Gold traded sideways right up until the Nonfarm Payrolls report at 0830 EDT (unexpectedly good news for payrolls: good economic news = bad news for gold), after which it dropped $25 in 30 minutes eventually touching a low of 1280, cascading lower while the dollar raced higher. Silver followed gold down, but was not as hard-hit. Gold rallied modestly at end of day. GDX was initially hit hard by gold’s plunge, but in the afternoon in NY it rallied hard into the close, ending the day up +0.58% on moderately heavy volume. GDXJ was up +0.73%, on heavy volume. Mining shares moved in distinct contrast to the metal – GDX buyers most definitely showed up, and chased prices higher. The metals were bearish, but miners were bullish.
Compressed demand for gold and other imports, a tempered demand for oil and an improvement in exports has put the smile back on the face of the Indian government. With the government happy and relatively unfazed at the spurt in gold imports in October, traders are expecting a roll back of certain norms related to gold imports.
Moments ago 
When one understands the widely pervasive but narrowly understood phenomenon of cognitive dissonance that permeates most of the Western world, it is not so difficult to put into context the disparity between demand for physical gold and silver and supply for the faux paper market. There is a growing sense for many that everything in the financial world is out of line, and way out of line for many others.
Most market watchers expect that Janet Yellen will grapple with two major tasks once she takes the helm at the Federal Reserve in 2014: deciding on the appropriate timing and intensity of the Fed’s quantitative easing taper strategy, and unwinding the Fed’s enormous $4 trillion balance sheet (without creating huge losses in the value of its portfolio). In reality both assignments are far more difficult than just about anyone understands or admits.
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
The standard version of how money came to be goes like this: First, there was barter. (A handful of nails for a pint of ale!) Then, along came various forms of money. An evolutionary derby eventually crowned gold and silver as the supreme money. And finally, credit (or debt) was born. This is the apex of man's ascent from knuckle-dragging barterer to tie-wearing mortgage holder.
So, the last 25 years are sort of unusual in all of financial history in that we've had this whole world on a fiat currency regime. And we've seen three bubbles here in America — the stock bubble, the real estate bubble, and the bond bubble — where the Fed has forced the bond market to trade in a place that is so wrong, so massively distorted, that it's like a bubble, even though there is no real euphoria. 
If we presume the US Mint is going to increase the volume of Eagles produced for the month of January, my guess is, they would be looking at a number of 10 million or greater. If someone simply looks at the history, as I have done, they would clearly see that the first two months of year deserve to be respected in terms of total volume. If they don't sell them all, according to history, the "summer doldrums" are very good months to stack silver as well. 
Every first Friday of the month, for the past eleven years, I have been forced to endure the Cartel's top "Key Attack Event"; i.e., the NFP employment report. As the government controls the highly manipulatable data – and "short sell" buttons on COMEX keyboards – it can turn any such report into a major economic "statement." Over the years, the NFP has become the world's most blatantly "cooked" report; with the Obama Administration taking such rigging to a new level ahead of last year's re-election campaign. Not only that, it can't even "keep its algos to itself"; as for the second straight month, pre-release market moves – in what else, but 
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