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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

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Indian gold imports slump 95% in August

Posted: 11 Sep 2013 04:57 AM PDT

Even as some sections of the government termed India's apex bank's restrictions onerous, the gov't readies further measures to cut gold imports.

Neocons Want To “Go Big” on Syria, Even Without Congressional Approval; Will Obama Rethink Action Given Overwhelming American Public Opposition?

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 09:01 PM PDT

The noises coming out of the Pentagon are getting downright creepy, a flashback to previous off-the-shelf strategy plans from the Iraq war.  Originally, it was widely reported that the Obama Administration had in mind a "punishment" strike of 50-some-odd missiles against the Syrian government.  But now, Pentagon strategists are considering a much longer, three day [...]

The post Neocons Want To "Go Big" on Syria, Even Without Congressional Approval; Will Obama Rethink Action Given Overwhelming American Public Opposition? appeared first on Silver Doctors.

COMEX Deliverable Gold Bullion Continues to Slowly Bleed Out

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 08:31 PM PDT

Le Café Américain

Christian Garcia: U.S. Mint hedges silver purchases with HSBC and JPM

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 08:01 PM PDT

GATA

L&L Energy's CEO Discusses F1Q 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 06:53 PM PDT

L&L Energy, Inc. (LLEN)

F1Q 2014 Earnings Call

September 10, 2013 04:00 pm ET

Executives

Dickson Lee – Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Clayton Fong – Vice President of US Operations

Ian Robinson – Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

David Sheridan – Boenning & Scattergood

[Mark Gold] – Analyst

Matt Stein – Analyst

Rufus Thorpe – Private Investor

Adam Weiss – Private Investor

Kevin McIntyre – Private Investor

Carson Cooper – East Hill Capital

Presentation

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the L&L Energy Incorporated F1Q 2014 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator instructions.) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

With us today are L&L's Chairman and CEO Dickson Lee, Vice President of US Operations Clayton Fong, and Chief Financial Officer Ian Robinson.

Before I turn the call over to Mr. Lee may I remind our listeners that in this

David Franklin: Is Platinum The New Gold?

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 06:35 PM PDT

The Goldrums of June are giving way to a new dawn for platinum group metals, says David Franklin, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management. While white metal miners face a variety of challenges, there is an increasing demand for platinum and palladium from vehicle manufacturers in the U.S. and China. And supplies of the hard-to-find metal are vanishing day by day. Now is the time to buy into existing stockpiles of the precious metal, Franklin tells The Metals Report.

The Metals Report: David, can you give us your recap on gold's recent performance?

David Franklin: During the first half of the year, gold companies booked large write-downs to assets, which they had purchased earlier in the cycle at inflated values. Then, Bernanke mentioned a potential reduction in stimulus from the Federal Reserve, which prompted U.S. hedge funds to sell large positions in gold. Soros, Paulson and

Could This Be the Next Bakken?

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 05:11 PM PDT

Could This Be the Next Bakken?

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Everyone is looking to make the “Big Score” in the resource sector—that one special discovery that is not just elephant- but brontosaurus-size: big enough to put you into the annals of resource exploration and make fortunes for your investors.

Everyone knows that investing in the junior resource sector can be dangerous. In fact, there are few investments where the odds are so high that they will fail and you will lose your money.

But when you do find the “Big Score,” it can be a life-altering experience.

There’s actually a book with that title, The Big Score. It’s a book about Doug Casey’s good friend and Casey Explorers’ League Honoree, Robert Friedland, and it details the legendary Voisey’s Bay nickel discovery. If you can get your hands on it, I recommend you read it.

Robert’s company, Diamond Fields, was exploring for diamonds in Africa. The book tells the story how the company accidentally stumbled upon one of the largest nickel discoveries in Canada, handing early investors in the company massive gains… up to 200 times their investment.

Here’s a little fact that isn’t in the book and is only known to the players involved: All of those early, private-placement investors only made their “Big Score” in Diamond Fields because Robert Friedland got them to agree to lock up their shares for double the amount required by the exchange at the time. The result was that these early investors couldn’t sell… and so they rode the stock all the way up and made much more.

Luck? They say you need to be good to be lucky.

I’ve been lucky thus far in my career with investments in companies like Cuadrilla, Africa Oil, Copper Mountain, BlackPearl, and Reservoir Capital, but I’ve also had my fair share of disasters.

Here is my biggest losing bet to date.

How you can be right and wrong at the same time

At the Casey Research Summit in September 2009, I was the appointed moderator of our Energy Panel, which consisted of serial mine-finders Ross Beaty and Lukas Lundin, legendary resource investors Rick Rule and Doug Casey, and Bob Bishop, editor of the famed Gold Mining Stock Report.

The hottest topic in the energy world at the time was “green energy.” Obama was hot, and renewable energy, according to the Gospel of Obama, was going to save America and then the world.

This was a heavyweight panel—about as good as it gets at any resource investment conference in the world—and I was doing my best to keep up with these guys. I was throwing tough questions at Rick, Ross, and Lukas, and without flinching, they came up with answers on the spot, with 500 high-net-worth investors and fund managers watching them in the audience.

So, after 45 minutes of interviewing the panel members, I invited the audience to ask questions—something we always do at Casey Summits. The first question turned out to cause quite a stir.

The question: “Marin, we’ve heard Rick and Ross’ take on geothermal energy, but you being the numbers guy, what’s your opinion on geothermal?”

My response: “Who am I to disagree with Rick and Ross, considering their net worth is an order of magnitude higher than mine? But I think that within 6-12 months, you’ll be able to buy these geothermal stocks at 50% less than they are trading now. At that time, they will be a great buy.”

I remember the look on Ross’ face when I said that. (In hindsight, I realize it was either really brave or really stupid of me to say such a thing with the main cheerleaders of geothermal sitting right in front of me.)

Bob Bishop, looking flustered, leaned into the microphone. “Marin, you’re showing your age. I can guarantee you will not see Magma Energy trade at anywhere near those prices.”

“Bob,” I replied, “with all due respect, now that you used the guarantee, I know it will happen.” And the roaring debate went on from there.

After the Summit, one of the largest brokers in the business, a power broker who deals with Rick, Lukas, and Ross, called me up. “Are you <expletive> nuts? How can you say that about Ross’ geothermal company? It will never go down to that price.” (Did I mention that I took a lot of heat because of that comment?)

So I called it right initially in the geothermal sector, but then I still lost my shirt. How in the world did that happen?

As my good friend Miles Thompson, chairman of Reservoir Minerals, said: “Marin, your mistake was you were right, and you jumped in.”

On paper, the geothermal sector looked unbelievably cheap and the valuations did hit my own valuation metrics, so I dove in head first. Unfortunately, the geothermal companies did not deliver the results the engineers had projected in the technical reports, and the stocks took a major beating. In the Casey Energy Report, we lost 83% on Ram Power and 64% on Ross Beaty’s Alterra Power (former Magma Energy). We closed out Nevada Geothermal with a small 1.8% gain.

From my perspective, the only thing geothermal energy produced for me was a horrible experience and a scar on the portfolio. That humbling experience taught me to use technical reports written by third-party consulting firms with a grain of salt, and to avoid management teams that haven’t succeeded in developing the projects they’ve gone after.

Such is the junior resource sector: You can’t win them all, but the important part is to have more winners than losers. Thankfully, I’ve had that benefit.

One of my greatest successes: Cuadrilla Resources

When I came across Cuadrilla, the company was nothing more than an idea, dreamed up by a couple of very smart geologists who had more brilliant ideas than money. Alongside my subscribers, at the same price as my subscribers, I ended up becoming one of the largest shareholders of the company.

Here is an interesting story about the early days of Cuadrilla. In late 2007, at the request of the Cuadrilla management team, I was asked to get the power brokers of the junior resource sector in one room together. After the management team gave a very detailed presentation regarding the company’s potential, the brokers looked baffled. Unconventional shale oil and gas exploration was still in its early days—nowhere near as popular as it is today—and the brokers had no clue what it meant.

Years later, Cuadrilla drilled up one of the largest onshore gas discoveries in Europe in the last decade. The company became a huge success, and I’m happy to report that now those smart geologists have as much money as they have brilliant ideas.

I was the first in the business to publish a research report and recommendation on Africa Oil. My only mistake was that I sold it too early, but it was still a very large win.

It has taken me years to find another company with Cuadrilla- and Africa Oil-type potential, but it has finally happened.

Is this the next Bakken?

Right now, I have my eyes on a company that I believe has the potential to exceed both Africa Oil and Cuadrilla in terms of its explosive upside… because I think it found “the next Bakken.”

Is there risk? Of course. Could I lose my money? You bet. But the upside significantly outweighs the downside.

This small-cap company has quietly assembled a several-million-acre concession in a region far more promising for the production of oil and gas than even the legendary Bakken shale formation, which holds between 7.4 and 20 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

Many of the company’s top executives have personally invested millions of dollars to fund the current drill program. I always take it as a good sign when a company’s management believes so strongly in what it’s doing that it puts its money where its mouth is. Case in point: Just two months ago, one director of the company bought 200,000 shares at market price.

If the well that is now being drilled brings the results management—and we here at Casey Research—are expecting, the company could deliver outsized gains for its shareholders, maybe for years on end. We should find out by next week.

So far it’s virtually unknown, and no analysts are covering it—yet it’s potentially sitting on billions of dollars and will get worldwide attention if its success compares to Cuadrilla and Africa Oil’s.

And If I am right about this company and its main project, this time I won’t sell too early.

Click here to find out more about “the next Bakken.”

The US Debt Ceiling Debate In The Light Of Monetary Fundamentals

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 04:45 PM PDT

By mid-October, the US will have reached its debt limit again. Most have lost count of the exact debt limit. Give or take a trillion, it is something close to 17 trillion US dollar.

The following two quotes are from a recent Wall Street Journal article:

“As that [the recent bond market turmoil] settles down, the next major political hurdle is the debt-ceiling debate.”

“President Barack Obama has said he won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling, but Republicans want new spending cuts. House Speaker John Boehner said in late August that he’ll only vote to increase the limit if there are major cuts and other budget changes.”

This story triggered some questions, which have been answered in the past on Gold Silver Worlds but make sense to review again. First, what are the risks associated with the increasing debt burden? Second, are the governments helping us [ordinary people] in providing protection? In other words, should we act before it is too late or believe that someone will take care for us? Third, how could this debt story end up?

The basics: Money is backed by debt and created out of thin air

In order to answer the three aforementioned questions, it is wise to go back to the roots of today’s monetary system. The underlying question is: where does money come from in the first place?

An answer to that question comes from Global Gold’s recent video How our monetary system works and fails. A short but valuable explanation comes from Positive Money who just released a video. In it, a ten year old child explains where money comes from and the problem associated with our money system (source):

Every bank note has [the Central Bank] printed on it. But the Bank of England only creates 3% of all the money in the UK. Where does the other 97% come from? It’s just numbers in a computer system. It’s electronic money created by high street banks. When you borrow money, it doesn’t come from somebody else’s savings. The amount you borrow is actually brand new money, created by the push of a button.

Martin Wolf at the Financial Times explains: “The essence of the contemporary monetary system is the creation of money, out of nothing, by private banks’ often foolish lending.”

We need money for everything we do, but the only way we can get it in the first place is to borrow it from the banks. That’s why the government wants to get banks lending again — to get them to create even more money. But the whole problem is there’s too much debt. So how can the answer be for us to borrow even more? As long as banks create money by lending it to us, we’ll always be in debt!

Moreover, as we all know in the meantime, the monetary base of Western economies has exploded since 2009. In an attempt to stimulate the economy by providing liquidity, central planners need increasing efforts to reach their goal. The following up-to-date chart shows the US central bank monetary base increase in blue and the money supply increase in red. Mind the pace to which the blue line must rise to keep the red line growing. Courtesy: St. Louis Fed.

monetary base M0 vs M2 august 2013 money currency

As a sidenote, it seems unbelievable what the most powerful man on earth, when it comes to monetary matters, has to confess about the destination of the newly created money. Check it out in this video (listen for one minute).

Boom and bust cycles are the underlying issue

The debt based monetary system we are living in, combined with the efforts of central planners to magically create wealth by increasing liquidity to the market, results in a misallocation of investments and economic resources. The following quote from Positive Money makes this point clear (source):

“Banks are systemically biased towards lending to property. This is quite fundamental problem. In the capitalist system the main idea is that money will flow to productive businesses. What we have got now is a system where the banking sector does not want to lend to the productive part of the economy. It can only lead to the collapse of the system.”

The essence of this monetary system is that it feeds a boom-bust cycle. Banks are the ones who CREATE money in our economy (hence increase the money supply) which they do by providing loans. The money associated with loans is almost entirely created out of thin air. The fundamental issue is that banks provide loans primarily to the public and not to productive businesses. Those “consumers” of the loans are able to spend more, and it goes on till a bubble is created which ultimately pops (think the real estate bubble, entirely created by foolish lending by banks). Then suddenly banks panic and stop lending which results in the contraction of the monetary supply. A recession is the result with rising unemployment and bankruptcies. All that can be avoided by a stable money supply and hence a stable economy. Boom bust cycles are the issue, not psychology of businesses.

Central bank liquidity as the main driver

The power of central bankers goes beyond the power of politicians. In fact, they are the most powerful men on earth, especially the central bankers from the large economies (Mr. Bernanke, Mr. Draghi, Mr. Carney, Mr. Abe). By conjuring never seen amounts of (cheap) money they are perceived to have saved the economic system. The reality, however, is that they have postponed a fundamental issue to a later moment in time, making the issue bigger meantime. What none of these powerful men have talked about is the destructive consequences of their actions. In fact, they have ruined a lot of lives of innocent people. Savings do not yield anything anymore in real terms (a savings account is losing value), and some pension funds are cutting back the benefits of their retirees. One of those ordinary citizens in the UK testifies "I do not understand what Quantitative Easing is apart from printing money. What I do understand, however, is that I do hold 50% less as a result of that." (source)

The central bankers have engineered a massive transfer of wealth from the old savers (who have no yields) to the young borrowers (who have cheaper debts). The Bank of England has admitted that Quantitative Easing has cost savers and pensioners in Britain 100 billion dollars so far.

Mr. Mark Carney his answer basically points out that the unintended consequences of quantitative easing could indeed be painful, but the world would have been in a much worse shape WITHOUT quantitative easing. So we should still be happy! Listen to his answer in the video.

"The underlying economy that would normally support this isn't there. It is a false kind of tide that everybody is riding. The entire world is in a bubble. Every asset class is in a bubble: real estate, bond market, stock market. Something is going to prick it."

A nightmare scenario: our monetary system has reached its limits

We are not into conspiracy nor do we like to talk about collapses. But, unfortunately, the facts and data all point to the real possibility of a nightmare scenario. That is centered around the idea that this debt based monetary system could be reaching its natural limits. Moreover, it is fed by the unprecedented monetary expansion which is showing signs of exhaustion in terms of its effectiveness. It is a fact, for instance, that every dollar of incremental debt is resulting in 0.08 dollars of economic output (GDP); the same dollar of debt yielded 4.61 dollars of economic output (GDP) in the fifties. Chart courtesy: Incrementum.

real GDP increase per dollar debt 1950 2012 money currency

From a recent presentation by Darryl Schoon:

When a credit and debt based economy slows down it is called a recession;  when it contracts it becomes a depression. Credit and debt based economies (which we call capitalism) must constantly expand because the money fed into it goes in the form of DEBT. All money created in capitalist economies comes in the form of loans. There is so much debt because that phantom of money is nothing but a debt machine with a happy face plastered on it loaning you the money so you can pursue your dreams (whether it is to buy your house or – in the US – to take education).

What you don't realize is the cost of paying the loan back. In that respect a former Goldman Sachs employee did a great service with the following calculation. The average credit card account of an American family is $14,000. Let's say you did not pay it down but kept the balance at $14,000 over the next 40 years. That credit card balance would throw off to the bank a profit of 2.4 billion dollars. You would think that the bank would have loaned you their money and that they are at risk. Well, they never loaned you their money. They loaned you a sum of money which they were allowed to do by the government based upon the aggregate amount of savings deposits in their bank. They are able to take the aggregate amount of savings in their bank which is not their money (it is your money); they loan it back to you 10 or 15 times the original amount. If the original amount of savings happens to be 1 billion dollars, commercial banks are legally enabled to loan it out 10 to 15 billion at whatever interest rates they wish to do. Let's say your savings are in that bank making a part of that billion dollar, how much are they paying you for those savings? Two or three percent. For the use of your aggregate savings which they will pay back to you on your credit card at any interest rate between 16 and 24 percent. Whose money was it that they loaned? Was it theirs? No, that's their shareholder assets. Was it yours? No, your money is on loan to the bank at some nominal interest rate of 2 to 3 percent. So whose money was it that they loaned back to at 16 to 24 percent? It's nobody's money; it's money that they made up out of thin air!

This is how banking has operated since 1694 when England put the Bank of England into place. When the Federal Reserve did the same thing in the US, this is the heart and soullessness of banking. Banking is a Ponzi scheme put in place to drain off the productivity of all human beings. It is a Ponzi scheme that was once put in place and that is now reaching the end of its lifespan. Now it is collapsing. Capitalism works as long as it is expanding. Why? That is why the focus is on GROWTH. Because time itself has become valuable, and everything has become monetized and tied to a loan. The longer that loan is outstanding the more interest has to be paid on that loan which compounds CONSTANTLY. The reason why economies have to expand is because the aggregate amount of debt is constantly expanding. So to pay off that constantly compounding aggregate amount of debt, credit has to go into the system hoping that it will induce enough new economic activity and profits to pay off the constantly compounding aggregate debt that is constantly growing larger. As long as it does everyone is happy. Everything has its day; every system has its limitations. The fact that we are reaching these limitations now in 2014 does not mean that you will get through it like the in 2009, 1999, or 1984. All those crises were followed by recoveries because the bankers' Ponzi scheme was able to get enough aggregate debt back in the game and give it another jolt of juice. That is why interest rates are now down to zero percent! United States interest rates have never gone to zero. Why? Because these are extremely consequential times.

Gold, along with the other precious metals, is the only financial asset that is free of counterparty risk. If a nightmare type of scenario will occur, the metals in physical form will save your financial health (or wealth, for that matter). Are your prepared? Own physical precious metals outside the banking system!

Oil’s Relationship with Oil Stocks and Gold

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 04:21 PM PDT

In our previous Oil Update we examined major factors, which previously fueled the price of light crude. Before we move on to the technical part of our Oil Update, let's take a closer look at the events of the previous week.

 

At the beginning of the last week President Barack Obama won the backing of key figures in the U.S. Congress, including Republicans, in his call for limited strikes on Syria. Additionally, a missile test by Israeli forces training in the Mediterranean with the U.S. Navy set nerves on edge. These circumstances fueled the oil market and resulted in a sharp pullback to over $108 per barrel. In spite of this growth, in the following days, the price of light crude was trading in the narrow range between the Tuesday's low and top.

 

Looking at the chart of crude oil, we can conclude that investors came back to focusing on economic data, because further improvement in the U.S. labor market is the key for the Fed to begin scaling back its $85 billion a month of bond purchase. Friday’s data showed that U.S. employers hired fewer workers than expected in August and the jobless rate hit a 4 and a half year low as Americans gave up the search for work.

The weaker-than-expected U.S. payroll numbers for August raised doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will start paring its massive stimulus and resulted in higher prices of light crude.

 

Another factor, which fueled the price of light crude was the G20 summit in St. Petersburg. According to Reuters, crude oil rose 2% after President Obama told, that failure to act against Syria’s use of chemical weapons would embolden “rogue nations” to use them too. The U.S. President has faced growing pressure from Russia, China, the European Union and major emerging market countries not to carry out a strike without support from the U.N. Security Council. Taking the above into account, there are concerns about how the crisis could affect relations between Washington and Russia and China.

 

In spite of this, the main worry now is that Iran, an ally of Damascus, could get involved if the United States goes ahead with attacking Syria. In this case, the entire region could become inflamed yet further, causing major oil supply problems.

 

What impact did these circumstances have on light crude? Crude oil climbed above $110 per barrel. This is a largest weekly percentage gain in two months, at 2.7%, the highest since July 5. It is also the largest daily percentage gain since August 27.

 

Keeping in mind these factors and their impact on the price of light crude, let's now move on to the technical part of our Oil Update. Just like a week ago, we take a look at the charts from different time perspectives to have a more complete picture of the current situation in the oil market.

 

Let's start with a look at the monthly chart of light crude (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com).

Looking at the above chart, we see that the situation hasn't changed much.

 

Quoting our last Oil Update:

 

(…) light crude still remains above the two long-term declining resistance lines: one of them (bold red line) is based on the July 2008 and the May 2011 highs, and the second one is based on the September 2012 and March 2013 highs (the upper black line).

 

From this perspective the picture is bullish and the breakout above these two long-term declining resistance lines hasn't been invalidated.

 

Now, let's zoom in on our picture of the oil market and see the weekly chart.

On the above chart, we see that the situation has improved recently. Although the price of light crude dropped below $105 per barrel at the beginning of the previous week, oil bulls didn't give up and pushed it higher in the following  days. In this way crude oil reached the strong resistance zone based on the March 2012 top and the upper border of the rising trend channel once again.

 

Taking the above into account, we should consider two scenarios. If the buyers manage to break above this strong resistance zone, the first price target will be close to the May 2011 top. However, if they fail, history will likely repeat itself and the price of light crude will come back to the consolidation range. In this case, the first price target for sellers will be around $105 per barrel.

 

From this point of view, the outlook is still more bullish than not at this time.

 

Now, let's check the short-term outlook.

In this daily chart, we see that the situation has improved in the recent days. At the beginning of the previous week the price of light crude dropped below $105 and reached the rising support line based on the August 8 and August 21 lows (marked in black). It's worth noting that this area was also supported by the 50-day moving average, which stopped the decline in June and, again, at the end of August (it was not even reached). In both previous cases this moving average encouraged buyers to act, which resulted in a sharp rally in the following days.

 

As you see on the above chart, we had a similar situation in the previous week. Light crude rebounded to over $110 per barrel and climbed above the March 2012 on an intraday basis, however, the breakout was not confirmed.

 

At this point it's worth mentioning that the recent correction is shallow and similar to the previous ones, which is a bullish factor. Additionally, when we factor in the Fibonacci price retracements, we clearly see that the recent corrective move has been quite small because it hasn't even reached the 38.2% level.

 

When we take a closer look at the above chart, we see that a consolidation has been formed in the recent days. On Friday, buyers managed to break above the Tuesday's top, which (according to theory) should result in further growth and the price target for the pattern is below the May 2011 top (around $113.45).

 

Where are the nearest support levels? The first is the 50-day moving average (currently at $105.52). The second one is the rising line based on the August lows (slightly below $105). The third one is the Tuesday low at $104.21. The next one is a zone (between $102.22 and $103.50) based on the bottom of the previous corrective move (the August 21 low) and the August low. As you see, there is also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which reinforces this support zone.

 

Summing up, although there was a downward move, which took the price of light crude below $105, technically, the short-term outlook for light crude is still bullish. The uptrend is not threatened at the moment, because the recent decline was shallow and similar to the previous ones.

Once we know the current outlook for crude oil, let's examine the NYSE Arca Oil Index (XOI) once again to find out what the current outlook for the oil sector is.

 

Let's start with the long-term chart.

On the above chart, we see that the situation hasn't changed much. We've been seeing a consolidation in the recent months and the NYSE Arca Oil Index is trading between the July top and the July low.

 

The XOI remains quite close to the May 2011 top and it's still above the previously-broken long-term declining resistance line based on the 2008 and the 2011 highs and the breakout hasn't been invalidated. The oil index also remains in the range of the rising trend channel.

 

Taking the abovementioned observations into account, the situation is still bullish.

 

Let's take a closer look at the weekly chart.

Looking at the above chart, we see that most of what we wrote in our last Oil Update is up-to-date today.

 

(…) the NYSE Arca Oil Index still remains above the medium-term support lines. Keep in mind that the strong support line (marked in black) stopped the decline in June, which resulted in a rally in the following weeks.

 

Please note that we should still keep an eye on the above-mentioned support line, because it is also the lower border of the rising wedge. As you know, this is a bearish pattern and if buyers fail, it will likely lead to a decline which may take the oil index at least to the lower medium-term support line (the red one).

 

The medium-term uptrend is not currently threatened, and the situation remains bullish.

 

What about the relationship between light crude and the oil stocks?

 

When we take a look at the above chart and compare weekly closing prices in both cases, it may seem that oil stocks were weaker in the previous week, because they didn't reach a new local top in terms of weekly closes. As you see, light crude close the whole week above the closing level of February 21, 2012. However, it's worth noting that the XOI climbed above this level at the end of January. Additionally, light crude still remains below the May 2011 top.

 

Now, let's turn to the daily chart.

Quoting our last Oil Update:

 

(…) it's worth noting that the XOI closed the previous week at the 50-day moving average, which still serves as support. If it holds, we may see a pullback to the Wednesday high.

 

As you see on the above chart, the 50-day moving average stopped further declines and encouraged oil bulls to push the oil index higher. In this way, the XOI came back above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (based on the entire July-August decline) and closed the previous week slightly above the July 30 low (in terms of daily closing prices).

 

Please note that the next resistance level is the declining line based on the May and July highs (currently close to the 1,404 level). If it is broken, the buyers' next target will be the July peak, and then the May top.

 

The nearest support is at the 50-day moving average (currently at 1,373.74). The next support zone is based on the August 27 and August 30 lows (1,361-1,364), and a further one is based on the August 21 bottom and the 61.8% retracement level (1,338-1,339).

 

On a side note, we'll comment on the relationship between the WTI and the XOI in the short term. Despite the negative divergences at the beginning of the previous week, the second half looked pretty much the same in both cases and we saw increases.

 

Summing up, from the long and medium-term perspectives the outlook for oil stocks is still bullish and the uptrend is not threatened at the moment. Taking into account the relationship between light crude and the oil stocks, it seems that crude oil is still a step behind the oil index.

 

Speaking of relationships, let's take a closer look at the chart below and check the link between crude oil and gold. Has it changed in the recent days? Let's examine the daily chart.

In the last week of August we noticed that light crude hit its top a bit earlier and when we saw a downward move in oil, gold was still rising. However, after the yellow metal reached its highest level during Wednesday's session, light crude accelerated its declines. In the following days both commodities continued to show weakness.

 

On the above chart we see that in both cases the buyers stopped the downward move on Tuesday. In the days following the sharp pullback, crude oil was trading in the narrow range between the Tuesday's bottom and top. What's interesting, at the same time gold declined once again. In other words, the consolidation in light crude triggered another move lower in gold. Despite the negative divergences, the last session of the previous week looked pretty much the same and in both cases we saw growths.

 

Taking the above into account, it's worth taking a closer look at the medium-term outlook for gold.

 

Let's turn to the weekly chart of the yellow metal.

In our last Oil Update we wrote:

 

(…) gold (…) reached a strong resistance zone based on three important levels: the first of them is the June's top; the second one is the April's bottom (in terms of weekly closes); and the third one is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level based on the September 2012 – June 2013 decline.

 

As you see on the above chart, the yellow metal attempted to move above this resistance zone once again, but this try failed for the second time, and the breakout was invalidated.

 

The medium-term situation seems quite bearish and if gold drops below the declining resistance line based on the October 2012 and February highs the outlook will be even more bearish.

 

Summing up, taking the long and medium-term relationship between light crude and the oil stocks into account, it seems that the oil index is a step ahead of crude oil. If this assumption is true, in the nearest future we will likely see an upward move in crude oil to at least the May 2011 top. Looking at the relationship between crude oil and gold, we first noticed the negative divergence. As we previously wrote, the consolidation in light crude triggered a downward move in gold. Additionally, crude oil broke above the Tuesday's top and approached the September top on Friday. Meanwhile, gold was trading significantly below the Tuesday peak, which is a bearish sign. Taking this into account and combining it with the current situation in the yellow metal, it seems that the acceleration of the downtrend in gold is still ahead of us. Connecting the dots, the short-term link between the yellow metal and crude oil may wane in the coming weeks.

 

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Thank you.

 

Nadia Simmons

Sunshine Profits' Contributing Author

Gold Trading Tools and Analysis – SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Nadia Simmons and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Nadia Simmons and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Nadia Simmons is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Nadia Simmons' reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Nadia Simmons, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

West wages psychological war on gold, Embry tells King World News

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 04:01 PM PDT

GATA

sept 10/GLD/SLV constant/Comex dealer gold falls again to 664,663 oz/gold and silver whacked/.

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 03:50 PM PDT

AHEAD: SYRIAN WAR, WWIII, & SHUT DOWN of US ECONOMY – Ann Barnhardt

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 03:30 PM PDT

Obama has decided to use military force against Syria- apparently regardless of whether Syria turns over its chemical weapons stockpiles to international authorities as originally demanded by the US. Ann Barnhardt, founder of the former Barnhardt Capital Management, believes the looming Middle East war will end up involving more countries than only the U.S. and [...]

The post AHEAD: SYRIAN WAR, WWIII, & SHUT DOWN of US ECONOMY – Ann Barnhardt appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold is about understanding the events that got us here and how they will unfold

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 03:01 PM PDT

FoFOA

Marc Faber: The Bond Market Would Like A High Level Of Tapering

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 02:34 PM PDT

Marc Faber explains in this interview the consequences of tapering and the potential motives of the US Fed.

First, however, he expresses his concerns about the stock market. He compares the situation in Asia with the one in the US. The Asian markets were up some 20% between the beginning of the year and May but came down sharply since. On the other hand, the S&P500 reached its peak on August 2nd. Meantime many emerging markets are down 50% since their 2009 highs.

Where would asset allocators put their money in: the S&P (which is in the sky) or the emerging markets (which are in the dumps)? If a decision is made to put money in equities, it would be in depressed markets.

Marc Faber owns shares in countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, but he admits not being in the mood to increase those positions. In Thailand, among other countries, there is no growth at present time. There is a meaningful slowdown in many countries.

Mr. Faber points to the fact that this stock bull market is 4 years old meantime. It started in March 2009. The global economy started slightly to recover in the summer of 2009 as well. Stocks are not the greatest bargain anymore.

The treasury market is greatly oversold right now, so a bounce is possible. In case the US Fed would announce to taper off, let’s say from 85 to 65 billion USD per month, then the bond market would react strongest on this by rebounding. In such a case, rates would come down. Longer term, the bond market has to be concerned about the continuous asset purchases, which are basically monetization and, hence, symptoms of inflation would appear somewhere.

All leaders have only interventions in their mind while the market has been proven to be a much better allocator of assets. When QE3 and QE4 had been implemented, the aim was to lower interest rates. The rates have been bottomed in July 2011 on 1.34% and are now standing at 3%. So the aim of the Fed has been totally missed. That’s why the bond market would like a high level of tapering.

Although Mr. Faber has not been talking about gold in this particular interview, we know what a tapering decision would imply for the precious metals. We remind readers that next Wednesday and Thursday, an FOMC meeting with official press conference will take place. Expect a signficant volatility going forward, in all markets probably.

When “No War” Is Bad?

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 02:00 PM PDT

I am sure you have seen that Vladimir Putin has stepped in and gotten Syria to agree to giving up their chemical weapons.  This has effectively neutered any strike by the U.S. and taken “war” off of the table.  It will be interesting to see what the president will have to say tonight and I am sure that his teleprompter speech is being rewritten as I write this.  You have to hand it to Putin, he seems to have diffused this situation and put us in a box of our own (the president’s) making.

From what I have seen and read, more evidence points to the “rebels” (Al Qaeda funded by the U.S.) as the ones who did the gassing, not Syria’s Assad.  My opinion aside, there are MANY reasons why the U.S. would like to strike Syria.  As I have mentioned, we must “reflate” the financial system and unless the Treasury starts issuing copious amounts of new debt then this cannot happen.  Yes the Fed “can” keep buying through QE but the problem is now that they are buying “too much” and eating up collateral that the shadow banking system needs as collateral to lend against.

We also have the reason(s) to keep the Middle East stirred up so that Russia and China cannot get deals done and a further foothold in an area that we are rapidly becoming “pais non gratis” (country not welcomed).  Of course this is certainly connected to the fact that demand for dollars to settle oil has been declining for several years as most all new “deals” are being inked WITHOUT the use of dollars for settlement.

Another couple of “financial” reasons that “no war is bad” would be the upcoming Fed taper or no taper meeting and the debt ceiling debate.  First off, big deficit spending for a war (even if it started with an “incredibly small strike” as John Kerry said) would allow the Fed NOT to taper.  They know full well that any taper will spike interest rates higher and bury the derivatives market and real economy even further.  With regards to the debt ceiling, anyone who even rooted for “austerity” and not raising the ceiling (or even a tempered hike) would be shouted down as un patriotic and just plain “un American” for not supporting our troops.

But in the words of David Letterman, “The number one reason that no war is bad?”…is because there is nothing else to distract the public from the ugly reality we find ourselves in.  “A war” is necessary.  It is necessary so that fingers can be pointed to it as the reason for all things bad.  “A war” will distract from all of the scandals that have erupted in just the last year.  No one will remember Benghazi (was it connected to the gas in Syria?), the IRS, NSA, Snowden or anything else.  The banks can be closed and your accounts “bailed in” while the public switches between CNN regarding the war and America’s Got Talent.  Not many pay attention anyway but a war, more than anything else will distract attention to the real deal.  The real deal being that the global Ponzi scheme is collapsing.

I must say that Putin’s “move” was incredibly smart.  He knows that we (the U.S.) “need” another war and he effectively has taken it away.  You see, even though Americans have been fooled into war many times before, we are still (my opinion) by majority a “just” population that needs to believe that we are “doing right.”  The backlash for an unprovoked attack, even now as dumbed down as we’ve become would still not be tolerated.  I believe that Mr. Putin understands this concept and made his “move” accordingly.  I also believe that he is/was fully willing to slam it out in the Mediterranean if necessary and fully understands the ramifications.  He understands that “no war is bad” for the U.S. and has basically dealt the administration a heavy blow by being the “nice guy arbiter.”  He has won this battle without even firing a shot by leaving the only reason for the U.S. to attack Syria being “because.”Similar Posts:

Dominatrix Of Silver: Blythe Masters May Part From JP Morgan

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 01:35 PM PDT

From time to time, don't you wish you could step into the mind of someone like Blythe Masters to see what she really thinks.  OK, you can stop getting "the creeps" now.  But seriously, this woman knowingly  lied to CNBC last April, stating "JPM's commodities business is not about betting on commodity prices but about [...]

The post Dominatrix Of Silver: Blythe Masters May Part From JP Morgan appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold Assault on Channel Support Forthcoming

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 01:16 PM PDT

JP Morgan Cornering Gold? I’m assuming manipulation is here to stay

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 12:30 PM PDT

Why would anyone expect JP Morgan to change strategies now? It's possible, I guess, that the banksters might decide that they can get really rich by cornering the right side of the precious metals market and by "letting" prices soar. Then again, if the bank's gold portfolio soars, the bank's dollar-backed investments would likely tank. [...]

The post JP Morgan Cornering Gold? I'm assuming manipulation is here to stay appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Precious Metals in a World that is Flat, Fungible and Fiat

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 12:30 PM PDT

Taking possession of precious metals and becoming your own central bank is becoming more essential in the current state of world fiat currency unraveling. Fiat currencies lack the hard collateral value of precious metals. Furthermore, the global financial system is quickly running out of collateral, hence signs of a growing gold shortage abound. By Dr. [...]

The post Precious Metals in a World that is Flat, Fungible and Fiat appeared first on Silver Doctors.

Gold: When western supply meets Asian demand

Posted: 10 Sep 2013 11:28 AM PDT

The global rally for gold underway since late June will soon translate to juniors, says Brien Lundin. With so many undervalued companies in safe North American jurisdictions, he sees no reason to add sovereign risk to a portfolio.

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