Gold World News Flash |
- David McAlvany- The dollar is a Ponzi Scheme
- The Weekend Vigilante
- Will We Have Another September Crisis
- Firsthand Update on Panama Bank Holiday
- Whaddayagottalose?
- Government Is Largely Responsible for Soaring Inequality
- RICHARD DAUGHTY & BILL MURPHY ~ GoldSeek Radio - Sept 27, 2013
- Five “reasons” why gold prices will decline
- Silver looks like victim of intervention, von Greyerz tells King World News
- As A Result Of Obamacare, Employer-Based Health Insurance Is Becoming Extinct
- Silver – Pushing On A String
- Where Are We In This Gold Bull Run?
- 3 Disasters Now Threaten To Collapse The World Economy
- In The News Today
- Eric Sprott : I am 80% Invested in Gold & Silver
- Alasdair Macleod: The unstoppable growth of the U.S. money supply
- GATA Chairman Murphy to speak at Silver Summit in Spokane on Oct. 24-25
- India's regulators said to confirm that the nation's gold ETFs have their metal
- This Past Week in Gold
- Rob Kirby interviewed by Lars Schall about ESF's market-rigging power
- Gold And Silver - Central Bank Death Dance, Part I
- Market Monitor – September 28rd
- Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month
- Gold And Silver Central Bank Death Dance
- Gold and Silver Bottoming Process
- Gold And Silver – Central Bank Death Dance (Part I)
- First settlement in South Africa for ailing mining company employees
- The Gold Price Nearly Touched its 50 DMA Closing Up $5.90 this Week at $1,338.40
- The Gold Price Nearly Touched its 50 DMA Closing Up $5.90 this Week at $1,338.40
- On The Gold Trail In Mexico - Kitco News Special
- No Conviction In Sight For Higher Gold Prices - "For Pete's Sake" w/Kitco's Peter Hug
- The Bottoming Process for Precious Metals
- Jim Grant - The World Will Witness Extreme Monetary Disorder
- Politics In One Lesson
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month
- A Surprising Projection for Silver
- Celente Blasts The CFTC & Bart Chilton & Previews New Trends
- Gold Markets Are Not Efficient, Don't Reflect Fundamentals and Understate Gold's Market Value
- Tocqueville's Hathaway joins battle against manipulation of metals markets
- Junior Gold Exploration 3
- Breaking: CFTC Stonewalls Hathaway’s Request For Information
- Twenty Days ‘Til the Government Is Broke… Again
- Current Situation in U.S. Dollar and non-USD Gold Price
- Lars Schall interviews Jesse of Cafe Americain about gold and silver price suppression
- BlackRock sees CEO exits as gold miners book writedowns
- Why gold prices don’t reflect fundamentals – Phillips Part 1
- Latest Indian gold smuggling bust snares customs officials
- Sibanye Gold – underrated and underpriced?
- ‘Subdued’ gold forum yielded little new information – Jakusconek
| David McAlvany- The dollar is a Ponzi Scheme Posted: 28 Sep 2013 08:30 PM PDT from WallStForMainSt: |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2013 07:30 PM PDT by Jeff Berwick, Dollar Vigilante:
In my nearly 10 years, off and on, in Acapulco I’ve never seen rain this continually. It finally all seems to have passed now (and I’ll have more on our recovery efforts for the area below). But, this is the third Weekend Vigilante where I’ve been talking about rain, which means in this very mountainous region it more or less has been rainy or wet for two weeks straight with some reprieves. Well, that has to be evidence of man-made global climate change, you might say (if you are an idiot). I hope I am not going out on a limb here by saying that because I haven’t seen weather like this in 10 years here that it may not have happened before! |
| Will We Have Another September Crisis Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:32 PM PDT
Are we headed for another September Crisis?
In general the period from May until November is a time for market underperformance. The average performance for the period from May 1 through October 31 each year since 1950 is just 1.2%. The average performance for the other six months of the year (November 1 through April 30) each year since 1950 is 7.0%.
Historically, September is has been the single worst month for stocks over the last 80 years. Since 1929, on average the S&P 500 has fallen 1.1% in September.
This is only one of three months to have an average negative return over this period. And it is the single worst month of the year (the other two are May with an average return of -0.1% and February with an average return of -0.2%).
Moreover, it is the Autumn when banking and financial crises have a tendency to occur. In terms of specific months, September and October are the worst with issues that lead up crashes erupting in September with October being when the actual crashes finally hit. There were Crashes during these months in 1907, 1929, 1987, and 2008.
All told, there have been a total of 147 crises since 1970 in the world. September accounted for 27 of them, the single largest month.
For certain stocks are definitively in a bubble. Based simply on CAPE (cyclical adjusted price to earnings) the market is significantly overvalued with a reading of nearly 24 (anything over 15 is overvalued).
Indeed, we’ve only been at this level of valuation during major stock tops (1929, 1966, 2000, and 2007)
??
Now we have the Government potentially shutting down. The markets are open on Monday which will be the last day in September.
Are we going to get another September Crisis?
For a free Special Report on how to prep your portfolio for a market collapse, visit us at: http://gainspainscapital.com/protect-your-portfolio/
Best Regards
Graham Summers
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| Firsthand Update on Panama Bank Holiday Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:30 PM PDT from Silver Doctors:
PK reports that with BancoNational shut down for a 5 day bank holiday, Panamanians "are talking about nothing else except this bank holiday", and states that while there is no massive panic yet in Panama, it is NOT NORMAL for the national bank to shut down for 5 days without warning on an end-of-the-month payday weekend. PK's full report on the BancoNational bank holiday is below: |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:00 PM PDT from TF Metals Report:
I mean, seriously. Why not sign the petition? It’s worth a try. This idea was floated yesterday by Eric Dubin at SilverDoctors. If you sign the petition and nothing ever comes of it, you’ll have given away about one minute of your life that you won’t get back. Otherwise, I don’t see much downside to trying. First, read the petition here: http://thenewsdoctors.com/bart-chilton-resign-and-become-a-whistleblower-open-letter-petition/ And then sign the petition here: http://www.gopetition.com/petitions/bart-chilton-resign-go-public-on-silver-manipulation.html You’ll note that yours truly was signatory #10. |
| Government Is Largely Responsible for Soaring Inequality Posted: 28 Sep 2013 05:48 PM PDT It's Not an Accident ... It's PolicyAmerica is experiencing unprecedented inequality. And a who's who of prominent economists (and investors) say that inequality is hurting the economy. Defenders of the status quo pretend that this inequality is something outside of our control ... like a force of nature. They argue that it's due to globalization, technological innovation or something else outside of policy-makers' control. In reality, inequality is rising due to the government policy. The chairman of the Department of Economics at George Mason University says that it is inaccurate to call politicians prostitutes. Specifically, he says that they are more correct to call them “pimps”, since they are pimping out the American people to the financial giants. The government has saved the big banks at taxpayer expense, chosen the banks over the little guy, and said no to helping Main Street ... while continuing to throw trillions at the giant banks. Crony capitalism has gotten even worse under Obama than under Bush. Obama is prosecuting fewer financial crimes than Bush, or his father, or Ronald Reagan.
Without the government’s creation of the too big to fail banks (they’ve gotten much bigger under Obama), the Fed’s intervention in interest rates and the markets (most of the quantitative easing has occurred under Obama), and government-created moral hazard emboldening casino-style speculation (there’s now more moral hazard than ever before) … things wouldn’t have gotten nearly as bad. As I noted in March 2009:
Quantitative EasingIt is well-documented that quantitative easing increases inequality (and see this and this.) Quantitative easing doesn’t help Main Street or the average American. It only helps big banks, giant corporations, and big investors. The Federal Reserve has been doing quantitative easing for 5 years ... and inequality has shot up over the last 5 years. It's not a coincidence. Subsidies to Giant, Wealthy CorporationsMassive subsidies to big corporations is also part of the problem. Indeed, some financial analysts say that the taxpayer subsidy to the giant banks alone is $780 billion per year. The average American family pays $6,000/year in subsidies to giant corporations. This is a direct transfer of wealth from the little guy to the big guy ... which increases inequality. Goosing the Stock MarketMoreover, the Fed has more or less admitted that it is putting almost all of its efforts into boosting the stock market. AP writes:
David Rosenberg points out:
The above-quoted AP article further notes:
Indeed, as we reported in 2010:
Professor G. William Domhoff demonstrated that the richest 10% own 98.5% of all financial securities, and that:
Tyler Durden notes:
As CNN Money pointed out in 2011, “Wal-Mart’s core shoppers are running out of money much faster than a year ago …” This trend has only gotten worse: The wealthy are doing great ... but common folks can no longer afford to shop even at Wal-Mart, Sears, JC Penney or other low-price stores. Durden also notes:
Business Week notes:
Americans RICHARD DAUGHTY & BILL MURPHY ~ GoldSeek Radio - Sept 27, 2013 Posted: 28 Sep 2013 05:31 PM PDT |
| Five “reasons” why gold prices will decline Posted: 28 Sep 2013 05:30 PM PDT from Sovereign Man:
1) "We expect the scaling back of [the Fed's] stimulus to happen this year at the December meeting. A reduction in monetary stimulus . . . shall reduce the attractiveness of gold as a zero-income asset." 2) "Inflation pressures in the developed world should remain subdued, lowering demand for gold as an inflation-hedge." 3) "We expect the US recovery to accelerate, reducing the attractiveness for gold as a safe-haven asset." |
| Silver looks like victim of intervention, von Greyerz tells King World News Posted: 28 Sep 2013 05:16 PM PDT 8:15p ET Saturday, September 28, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz reviews the world economic situation with King World News today and remarks, among other things, that silver looks like the victim of repeated central bank intervention. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/28_3_... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| As A Result Of Obamacare, Employer-Based Health Insurance Is Becoming Extinct Posted: 28 Sep 2013 04:53 PM PDT Submitted by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse blog, Barack Obama promised to fundamentally transform America, and when it comes to health care he has definitely kept his promise. Thanks to Obamacare, health care spending is up, health insurance premiums are up, the number of hours Americans are working is down and employer-based health insurance is becoming an endangered species. Of course employer-based health insurance will not disappear completely any time soon, but it has been steadily shrinking for over a decade, and Obamacare will greatly accelerate that decline.
If you go back to 1999, 64.1 percent of all Americans were covered by employment-based health insurance. That was pretty good. Today, only 54.9 percent of all Americans are covered by employment-based health insurance, and now thousands upon thousands of U.S. employers are considering reducing the scope of the health plans they offer to employees or eliminating them altogether due to Obamacare. If you are thinking that this sounds like a potential nightmare for millions of Americans families, you would be exactly right. There have already been widespread reports of companies dropping health insurance, but nobody knows for sure how widespread the carnage will be. According to Businessweek, the surveys that have been done up to this point have come up with widely varying results...
But what everyone does agree on is that employer-based health coverage will continue to diminish. And we are already watching this happen right in front of our eyes. Just this week, the Wall Street Journal reported that the largest security guard firm in the United States is dropping health coverage for 55,000 employees...
Speaking of Trader Joe's, I wrote about how they are eliminating health coverage for part-time workers the other day. Instead of providing health insurance for their part-time workers, Trader Joe's will be writing them a check and pushing them on to the Obamacare exchanges...
And this is a huge reason why the shift from full-time work to part-time work in America has accelerated this year. Obamacare creates an incentive for companies to have more part-time workers and less full-time workers. In fact, almost all of the jobs that have been "created" by the U.S. economy in 2013 have been part-time jobs. But it is incredibly difficult to try to support a family on a part-time job. Sadly, the quality of our jobs continues to decline rapidly and only 47 percent of all adults have a full-time job in America today. This is only going to continue to get even worse under Obamacare. As a result of these trends, more Americans are going to be forced to go out and buy health insurance "on the individual market". When they do, they are likely to be in for a really nasty surprise...
Are you ready to have your health insurance premiums potentially double or triple? In other cases, families are discovering that health insurance companies are simply cancelling their health insurance plans...
In fact, this even happened to one member of Congress. U.S. Representative Cory Gardner had purchased health insurance on his own because he wanted to experience what his constituents were going through, and he recently got a letter informing him that his old plan had been "discontinued"...
Is this what Obama was talking about when he promised that we could keep our old health insurance plans if we were happy with them? In the end, millions upon millions of us are going to get pushed on to the Obamacare health insurance exchanges. We were promised that there would be lots of competition and that prices would be reasonable. Unfortunately, in some areas of the country it turns out that the "exchanges" are turning out to be "monopolies" where consumers will only have one company to choose from...
Not only that, but a lot of these exchanges are not even going to be ready to function properly on October 1st. For example, according to the Washington Post, the D.C. "health marketplace" is a complete and total mess at this point...
So who is going to benefit from this new system? Well, it turns out that the health insurance companies will greatly benefit. Health insurance companies helped write Obamacare, and their stock prices have absolutely soared since Obamacare was signed into law. If you doubt this, just check out the amazing charts in this article. Not that they were hurting under the old system either. They have been raking in gigantic mountains of cash for years while trying to provide as little health care as possible. For much more on this, please see my previous article entitled "50 Signs That The U.S. Health Care System Is A Gigantic Money Making Scam". For the rest of us, Obamacare is going to be even worse than the old system. A 2013 Health Care Survey that polled 200 top health care professionals discovered the following about what they believe Obamacare will bring...
So Americans are going to pay more, get worse care, have more paperwork and a more complicated system, and they are likely to die younger too? Wow, that sounds like a great deal. Where do we sign up?
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| Posted: 28 Sep 2013 02:01 PM PDT Little in the way of news has transpired in the past week that could have an impact on the silver market. The main stage has been set for some time, regarding all the known factors affecting silver, to date. There is no need to review any of them, at this point. What can be noted is that the CFTC has reached the conclusion that the "alleged" manipulation by JPMorgan in the silver market, well documented and presented to the CFTC by Andrew Macguire, was much ado about nothing.. Just like lackey Eric Holder, chief law [un]enforcement official a the Dept of [no]Justice, has not been able to uncover any wrongdoing by Wall Street over the past 5 years, the CFTC ran into the same "bad luck" during its two-year investigation.
Our latest view of the market was provided in "Central Bank Death Dance, Part I." It presents a less conventional outlook on what not enough people are taking into consideration in trying to understand why silver has not rallied strongly, based on otherwise very strong demand factors. This article is more abbreviated for content, as a consequence, so we go directly to the charts, and even they have little to add as price moves in a sideways fashion. The final close for the monthly chart is Monday, but unless price makes a dramatic move up or down, September has been an "inside range" bar. It has done little to erase the stronger August rally bar, and for that reason, a slight edge goes to the bulls. What is critical now is for demand to take over and rally price higher. Sentiment aside, our expectation is for a more protracted sideways range in the months ahead. We could be wrong, but it is an "odds-on" assessment. As always, we let market activity make the final determination, as it always does.
Not much can be learned from the weekly and daily charts, so we skip to a few intra days to see if there are developing clues. The 90 minute chart shows a strong D/S, [Demand over Supply] day on high volume, 18 September. It did not go much higher, and it set up the upper bound for a TR to follow, unknown at the time. A few days later, a counter-punch by S/D, [Supply over Demand], on even higher volume. This downside effort also failed to result in any further downside, and it held the lows of the D/S bar, a plus for the buyers. Not much else can be said as price has since moved sideways for five more TDs, letting us know the buyers and sellers are in balance. What we also know is this form of balance inevitably leads to unbalance, and a directional move can be expected to follow as price moves further along the RHS of the TR, [Right Hand Side of Trading Range.]
Zooming down to a 60 minute chart does not offer a higher degree of clarity, but there are a few developments that appear more positive than otherwise. Keep in mind, this is an intra day chart, and the lasting effect is weaker than a higher time frame, weekly or daily. The chart comments give what we see. As price moves further along the RHS of a TR, the market is closer to reaching an imbalance, and that is where some low-risk entries can be made, if the set-up is clear enough on the lower time frame charts. The decline for the latter part of Friday was labored after the EUM rally early in the day. [Ease of Upward Movement]. We pay attention to the how of developing market activity, and the EUM is stronger than the labored "correction" that followed. If we had to take a stand, we would expect more upside on Monday, but that is just a non-committed "guess" because price can open lower. The market is not concerned about our "guesses," anyway. We remain lightly committed to the long side, but the sideways activity has not done much for the position. Plan accordingly and follow the market's direction.
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| Where Are We In This Gold Bull Run? Posted: 28 Sep 2013 01:49 PM PDT In a recent presentation Ross Norman from Sharps Pixley covers all latest gold market aspects. His presentation includes the supply side and demand side elements. The presentation is embedded below and contains one or several up-to-date charts per topic. Supply side:
Demand side:
Based on the data from his presentation he comes to the following conclusion. It paints a high level picture of where we are in this gold bull run:
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| 3 Disasters Now Threaten To Collapse The World Economy Posted: 28 Sep 2013 01:11 PM PDT  With continued uncertainty in global markets, today the 42-year market veteran, who correctly predicted that the Fed would not taper, is now warning King World News that 3 disasters threaten to collapse the world economy. He also discussed what all of this means for major countries and key markets such as gold and silver. Below is what Egon von Greyerz, founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in his interview.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2013 09:23 AM PDT Gold Rises to One-Week High on U.S. Stimulus Speculation By Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin September 27, 2013 2:21 PM EDT Gold futures rose to a one-week high after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said more signs of strength in the economy are needed to reduce asset purchases. "I can't have tremendous... Read more » The post In The News Today appeared first on Jim Sinclair's Mineset. |
| Eric Sprott : I am 80% Invested in Gold & Silver Posted: 28 Sep 2013 08:29 AM PDT Eric Sprott : Marc [Faber] indicated that he was a 25% investor in precious metals; I am probably an 80% investor in precious metals. Silver COMEX inventories have held up even though... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://goldbasics.blogspot.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| Alasdair Macleod: The unstoppable growth of the U.S. money supply Posted: 28 Sep 2013 08:23 AM PDT 11:23a ET Saturday, September 28, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod writes today that to keep increasing the money supply, "quantitative easing" isn't necessary -- that central banks can continue providing cheap money to banks. Indeed, Macleod writes, even during the tenure of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates to tame inflation, the U.S. money supply increased. Macleod's commentary is headlined "The Unstoppable Growth of U.S. Money Supply" and it's posted at GoldMoney's Internet site here: http://www.goldmoney.com/en-gb/news-and-analysis/news-and-analysis-archi... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| GATA Chairman Murphy to speak at Silver Summit in Spokane on Oct. 24-25 Posted: 28 Sep 2013 07:41 AM PDT 10:40a ET Saturday, September 28, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GATA Chairman Bill Murphy will join several GATA favorites in speaking at the 11th annual Silver Summit conference, to be held Thursday and Friday, October 24 and 25, at the beautiful Davenport Hotel in Spokane, Washington, and sponsored by Cambridge House. Those GATA favorites include GoldSeek and SilverSeek proprietor Peter Spina; Patrick Heller, proprietor of Liberty Coin Service in Lansing, Michigan, and a frequent contributor of market commentaries to coin publications; David Morgan of the silver-oriented Morgan Report; Bix Weir of the Road to Roota financial letter; and CPM Group Managing Director Jeffrey Christian, whose testimony at the March 25, 2010, hearing of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission helped expose the huge naked short position in the monetary metals futures markets. Many mining companies will be exhibiting and a special trip to the silver mining district near Spokane is being offered on the day before the conference. Admission is $40 or 1 ounce of silver. More information about the Silver Summit conference and a registration mechanism are posted at the conference's Internet site here: http://cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... |
| India's regulators said to confirm that the nation's gold ETFs have their metal Posted: 28 Sep 2013 07:25 AM PDT Probe into Gold Assets of Mutual Funds Allays SEBI Fears on ETFs By Ashley Coutinho http://www.financialexpress.com/news/probe-into-gold-assets-of-mutual-fu... MUMBAI -- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) recently conducted a series of checks to ascertain whether the mutual fund industry had the requisite quantum of physical gold to back the units of their gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) floated on the exchanges. The investigation assumes significance in the aftermath of the National Spot Exchange Ltd. crisis where it has emerged that entities were trading on the spot exchange without adequate physical commodities to back the trades. "Given the backdrop of the NSEL crisis, SEBI had sent a team to verify if the fund houses had the required quantity of physical gold assets with them. The team concluded that the amount of physical gold with the fund houses was in fact slightly more than the value of ETF units they had," said a senior fund official, on condition of anonymity. "The regulator has expressed satisfaction that things are in order." Every fund house has to sell or buy physical gold and store it with a custodian bank based on the units of gold ETFs it issues. "Technically, it is not possible for fund houses to trade in ETF units without the requisite backing of physical gold. But, I guess, the regulator felt it was better to be safe than sorry and went ahead with the verification," said another senior fund official, who also didn't want to be named. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal: Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear. All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics. All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay. Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery. All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins. Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653. "We have very substantial volume of trades of gold exchange-traded funds. So is the stock of gold physically available or not? We sent our team that physically verified that against all the gold ETFs that have been issued in the country, there are gold stocks," said SEBI chairman U.K. Sinha at a recent "Idea Exchange" with the Financial Express and Indian Express teams. Of late, fund houses have been finding it difficult to source physical gold from banks following RBI's new guidelines aimed at restricting gold imports. Mutual funds typically buy the yellow metal from banks because of the convenience, quality, and cost advantage they offer. Although mutual funds can buy gold from non-bank entities as well, these entities are not equipped to handle the kind of volumes required by fund houses on a daily basis, said experts. As of August 31 this year, there were about 11 gold funds in the market, with assets under management totalling R4,577 crore. Gold ETF assets from 14 schemes amounted to R11,837 crore. Between April and July gold ETFs have seen net outflows of R932 crore. Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:56 AM PDT Summary: Long term - on major sell signal since Mar 2012. Short term - on sell signals. Gold sector cycle - down as of 9/13. Read More... |
| Rob Kirby interviewed by Lars Schall about ESF's market-rigging power Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:55 AM PDT 9:55a ET Saturday, September 28, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The worldwide market rigging power and authority of the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund, often cited by GATA, as it was this week -- http://www.gata.org/node/13059 -- are discussed today in an interview conducted by the German financial journalist Lars Schall with GATA consultant Rob Kirby of Kirby Analytics in Toronto. The interview is 20 minutes long and can be heard at Schall's Internet site here: http://www.larsschall.com/2013/09/28/the-organized-crime-banking-at-its-... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Gold And Silver - Central Bank Death Dance, Part I Posted: 28 Sep 2013 06:50 AM PDT The question most have been asking is, why aren't the prices of gold and silver reflecting the unprecedented huge demand and the almost depleted holdings of the exchanges and central banks? Article after article has been retelling ... Read More... |
| Market Monitor – September 28rd Posted: 28 Sep 2013 04:36 AM PDT Top Market Stories For September 28rd, 2013: Russia Increases Gold Holdings With Kazakhstan for 11th Month - Bloomberg Turkey tops central banks' gold buying in Aug - IMF - Reuters Thai Gold Buyer Doubles Imports After Bear Slump: Southeast Asia - Bloomberg Gross Says Investors Shouldn't Trust Moody's on U.S. AAA Rating - Bloomberg Credit Markets Signal Bigger Fear |
| Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month Posted: 28 Sep 2013 02:44 AM PDT There was no activity in or out of the COMEX warehouses yesterday, with only a small adjustment at Brinks. Here is an interview I did with Lars Schall yesterday. You may read at it here. Lars is a very personable and intelligent fellow, and did a good job of drawing out some comments, and coaxing me to put some things forward more so than I am often wont to do. I am always grateful for the good work that he does. |
| Gold And Silver Central Bank Death Dance Posted: 28 Sep 2013 02:22 AM PDT If “they” can get you to ask the wrong questions[s], “they” do not have to worry about giving the right answer[s]. The question most have been asking is, why aren’t the prices of gold and silver reflecting the unprecedented huge demand and the almost depleted holdings of the exchanges and central banks? Article after article has been retelling the stories of long lines to buy silver and gold, all over the world, Russia and China buying everything available for sale from the gutless Western central bankers, failure to deliver physical gold by banks to customers, failure to deliver contract gold on the COMEX, rolling it forward and/or settling for cash for those who take it. |
| Gold and Silver Bottoming Process Posted: 28 Sep 2013 02:12 AM PDT In our last editorial we pointed out how the gold stocks had veered off the recovery course. They fell well below the recovery template and fell below their 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, the positive “non-taper” news turned out to be the mother of all bull traps for traders. The market soared on presumably an epic amount of short covering. Yet that only served to be a selling opportunity for traders. That sequence of events only strengthened our view that the sector continues to be headed for a retest which could serve as the mother of all buying opportunities. |
| Gold And Silver – Central Bank Death Dance (Part I) Posted: 28 Sep 2013 01:43 AM PDT If "they" can get you to ask the wrong questions[s], "they" do not have to worry about giving the right answer[s]. The question most have been asking is, why aren't the prices of gold and silver reflecting the unprecedented huge demand and the almost depleted holdings of the exchanges and central banks? Article after article has been retelling the stories of long lines to buy silver and gold, all over the world, Russia and China buying everything available for sale from the gutless Western central bankers, failure to deliver physical gold by banks to customers, failure to deliver contract gold on the COMEX, rolling it forward and/or settling for cash for those who take it. Each of these factors have been posed in the form of a question to ask why prices have not reached new highs, and substantially higher PM highs. These are the wrong questions which is why no one has offered the "right" answer as it pertains to price. We have alluded to other issues in salvos against the central banks and New World Order, [NWO], on several occasions. The NWO, through the Bank for International Settlements, [BIS], its central banks own the United States since 1933, when this country was forced into bankruptcy and Socialist Roosevelt shut down the banking system to give time for the Federal Reserve to take total control. The de facto corporate federal government has been taking it marching orders from bankers since about 1861.
Cognitive dissonance has almost all of the American population, and the rest of the world believing FRNs are "dollars." Those unaware are unaware of being unaware, and as a consequence, the unaware are not asking the right question[s]. When presented with the truth, people do not believe it. Instead, they believe in the lies fed to them so that the real truth sounds like a lie. The NWO has shredded the organic Constitution, created by our forefathers, and replaced it with a federal constitution that is very similar to but drastically different from the original. The NWO has also driven out capitalism and replaced it with corporate fascism and central planning, for over the past century, but few have noticed or even care to know.
How do people in this country measure their wealth? By the worthless fiat FRN. Almost all measure their worth by debt. What is the antithesis of debt? Gold and silver, those metals which have a proven history of an intrinsic store of value. Prior to the Federal Reserve, this country issued United States Treasury Notes, backed by gold and silver. Every Note could be exchanged for its face value into gold or silver, at any time. Into what can anyone exchange a Federal Reserve Note? For another one, only. The value of an original FRN issued in 1913 is worth about 2 cents, today, maybe less, not that it matters. The value of an ounce of gold in 1913 was $18.32. Even at today's price, suppressed as is has been, that same ounce of gold is worth $1,340. The price of silver in 1913 was $1.29 vs $22 today. Here is at least one right question you should be asking: Which would you rather own, a fiat piece of paper, or an ounce of gold or silver?
If the prices of gold and silver were allowed to reflect their true worth, it would totally undermine the existence of the "dollar" and topple central bankers and governments. Those bankers in control are not going to go down, [which they inevitably will], without a fight, and they will destroy existing western currencies in the process. If the paper "dollar" is how you measure your worth, you have been warned. We have been advocating buying and holding physical gold and silver, regardless of price for reasons such as the above. Anyone gambling on timing of the availability for buying physical gold and silver is playing a risky game and ignoring factual history supportive of owning either or both. Do so at your own peril. We have heard from esteemed sources that the COMEX/LBMA exchange pricing is a joke. That may be true, but it continues to work, and it may continue to work for longer than anyone expects. Some are measuring central banking gold/silver failure in months. It may last for years, still. No one knows the future, and those who have professed gold and silver reaching stratospheric heights have been wrong, for the most part, over the past few years. At this point, we turn to those "silly" charts because we know of no better substitute no matter how corrupt they may be. They are accurately telling everyone what they can expect to pay for the purchase of physical gold and silver. What we do not see in any of the charts are signs of panic from the bears. That can change next month, but we are dealing with the present. Until there are definite signs of change, we reference the charts because of no viable alternative. Not a lot can be said about the weekly. The trend is down. It has weakened a little but has not changed. The past three weeks were an attempt to get the market lower that failed, at least for now. Last week's small range rally bar was relatively weak, but price managed to close on the higher end of the bar, a plus.
The same information is seen in greater detail on the daily. The effort to push price lower from six weeks ago was stopped, but the rally effort since has been somewhat weak. Gold needs to rally away from this little support area, or it could be challenged, again.
Price continues to hold above the gap higher rally bar, 7 weeks ago. It continues to be an important turning point for silver. The trend is down, but there has been no concerted effort to push it lower, as was seen in the Spring.
There is a slight positive aspect to the clustering of closes, but with the trend still down, the onus is on buyers to show control by moving price higher, soon. The futures have been difficult to trade, but buying physical gold and silver is a no-brainer.
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| First settlement in South Africa for ailing mining company employees Posted: 27 Sep 2013 06:47 PM PDT South African Gold Miners Reach Landmark Settlement By Ian Evans http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Africa/2013/0927/South-African-gold-miner... LONDON -- British mining conglomerate Anglo American agreed to pay a group of former gold miners in South Africa an undisclosed amount for health problems, a settlement that could open the door to thousands of similar suits against Anglo American and other mining companies. It is the first settlement reached in South Africa between a mining company and employees who say they contracted respiratory diseases from working in the mines. Lawyers representing the 23 miners said the company and other mining firms should now do "the decent thing" and consider claims submitted by thousands of other workers. Anglo American South Africa agreed to the confidential settlement in court this week without admitting liability. The settlement comes nearly 10 years after the miners from South Africa and Lesotho launched the claim. Since then eight of the 23 men have died. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Don't Let Cyprus Happen to You Depositors at the Bank of Cyprus lost 47.5 percent of their savings. So to preserve your wealth, get some of it outside the banking system into physical gold and silver. Worldwide Precious Metals (Canada) Ltd., established in 2001, specializes in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. We offer delivery or secure and fully insured storage outside the banking system in Brinks vaults. We have access to gold and silver from trusted worldwide refineries and suppliers. And when you have an account with us you have immediate access to it for buying and selling your stored bullion. For information on owning physical precious metals in your portfolio, visit us at: www.wwpmc.com. The majority of the claimants worked at the President Steyn mine in South Africa's Free State province. The workers claimed that a lack of masks and inadequate watering down of dust in the mines allowed toxic silica particles from gold-bearing rocks to damage their lungs and cause silicosis. Lawyer Richard Meeran from London-based legal firm Leigh Day, which first brought the case in 2004, said most of the damage was done during the apartheid era when work conditions in mines were poorer. The first free elections in 1994 and stronger unions have seen vastly improved standards, but Mr. Meeran's practice has another 4,000 miners with similar health conditions waiting to make compensation claims. Speaking from Johannesburg, South Africa, Meeran said his claimants were happy with the settlement, which could act as a precedent for his clients and other compensation claimants demanding money from Anglo American and up to 30 gold firms, including AngloGold Ashanti, Harmony, and Gold Fields. "In a technical and legal sense it's currently the first settlement of this type in South Africa," he said. "After this settlement you'd have to wonder why Anglo or other companies would contest similar cases -- it would defy logic." A spokeswoman for Anglo American, Emily Blyth, said the company was not making contingency arrangements for possible future compensation payouts and declined to go into detail about other class actions. She said Anglo American had not been given any details about would-be claimants, their conditions, or whether they worked at Anglo or other mining firms. Anglo American, which no longer mines gold in South Africa after selling off its interests, said its South African arm thought the agreement was in the 23 claimants' "best interests." Khanyisile Kweyama, the executive director of Anglo America South Africa, added in a statement: "We continue to work with industry, government, and civil society to tackle the many challenges of primary health care in South Africa. Our collective objective is to significantly improve the access and quality of care available to all South Africans as well as ensuring a healthy and safe working environment for all our employees." * * * Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| The Gold Price Nearly Touched its 50 DMA Closing Up $5.90 this Week at $1,338.40 Posted: 27 Sep 2013 04:03 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,338.40 Gold Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 1,332.50 Change : 5.90 or 0.4% Silver Price Close Today : 21.783 Silver Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 21.876 Change : -0.093 or -0.4% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.442 Gold Silver Ratio 20-Sep-13 : 60.912 Change : 0.53 or 0.9% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01628 Silver Gold Ratio 20-Sep-13 : 0.01642 Change : -0.00014 or -0.9% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 235.67 Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Sep-13 : $ 239.70 Change : -$4.04 or -1.7% Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.400 Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Sep-13 : 11.596 Change : -0.20 or -1.7% Dow in Silver Ounces : 700.47 Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Sep-13 : 706.30 Change : -5.84 or -0.8% Dow Industrial : 15,258.24 Dow Industrial 20-Sep-13 : 15,451.09 Change : -192.85 or -1.2% S&P 500 : 1,691.75 S&P 500 20-Sep-13 : 1,709.91 Change : -18.16 or -1.1% US Dollar Index : 80.266 US Dollar Index 20-Sep-13 : 80.454 Change : -0.188 or -0.2% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,414.90 Platinum Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 1,432.10 Change : -17.20 or -1.2% Palladium Price Close Today : 730.80 Palladium Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 720.30 Change : 10.50 or 1.5% Today the GOLD PRICE popped up $14.80 to close at $1,338.40. SILVER gained 6.3 cents (be still, my beating heart!) to 2178.3c. Y'all know that when your car gets stuck in a mudhole, if you gun it you can rock it back and forth, but you're also burning up tire tread. Is it worth it? Silver and GOLD PRICES are burning up buyers to little purpose trading between $1,322 and $1,340 and 2200c and 2130c. Both the silver and gold price have formed small uptrends off the 18 September lows. The gold price today nearly touched its 50 DMA (1,347.03) with its $1,345.20 high, but didn't. It did, however, obliterate the possibility that Wednesday and Thursday had posted a downward island reversal. Thus gold remains firmly in limbo, trapped in a trading range, $1,315 - $1,345. On the weekly chart the gold price must close above $1,434 to break through the downtrend line from the 2011 high. More than that, it needs to clear $1,550, the April breakdown, to prove it has ended its long correction. Silver's weekly chart says it must cross 2250c to beat that 2011-downtrend line, and 2512 (last high) to gain any attention. Then it needs to climb above 2750c, the April breakdown. Silver and gold prices didn't arrive in this hole fast, and it looks like they won't climb out too fast, either. Be patient: all the forces of nature, politics, central banking, inflation, stupid human greed, corrupt crony capitalism, and a corrupt populace, half of whom depend on government spending for their income, are all on gold and silver's side. Until gainsaid by lower prices breaking the present short term uptrends, I will continue to assume that the 2011-2013 silver and gold correction bottomed on 27 June 2013. 'Twas a week depressed by the silly debt-ceiling drama in Washington. That's hurting stocks more than metals, but not doing them any good either. Markets hate uncertainty. Stocks dropped a bit over 1%, white metals were mixed, and the US dollar index is struggling to maintain respectability. How can I wax witty describing running in place? STOCKS. Stocks wrecked today any chance they were forming a falling wedge. Dow lost another 70.06 points (0.46%) and ended at 15,258.24, crashing into its 50 DMA (15,288) and 20 DMA (15,254). Since it did not or has not yet bounced off those moving averages, it's signaling more downward momentum. Relative Strength Index is equivocal but headed down, while the MACD today made a downward crossover. S&P500 doesn't look quite as puking sick as the Dow, but is only hovering above its 50 and 20 DMAs (1680.18 and 1684.74). S&P500 lost 6.92 (0.41%), closing at 1,691.75. Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both trying to roll over for another downleg. Dow in gold lost 1.5% today to end at 11.400 oz, but that's down 1.7% on the week. The DiG's 20 DMA is climbing to meet the falling 50 DMA very soon (11.29 to 11.36), and the DiG stands barely above the 50, 11.40 oz vs. 11.36. Dow in silver closed down 0.7% today at 700.47 oz, down 0.8% for the week. It stands below its 50 DMA, now 702.31. 20 DMA awaits at 675.09. Both indicators remain in a downtrend from the June 27 highs, i.e., lows in gold and silver. CURRENCIES. I believe I'd go ahead and shoot myself and put me out of my misery if my job were managing the US dollar. US dollar index today waffled to the bottom of the little range it has established in the last 8 days. Closed at 80.266, down 26.6 basis points or 0.34%. It has already fallen through support from its bottom channel line from the May 2011 low. If the punier support at 79.50 gives way, the dollar index will spread its wings and fly like a bowling ball. Dollar weakness left both the competing scrofulous, nasty fiat currencies feeling pretty perky. Euro rose 0.26% to $1.3521, but still appears loath to pull away from $1.35 support and rise. Trend, though, remains up. Yen gained 0.71% today to 101.77 cents/Y100. It gapped up, even above its 50 DMA, yet still has not undone the damage from its 1 September fall thru support. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
| The Gold Price Nearly Touched its 50 DMA Closing Up $5.90 this Week at $1,338.40 Posted: 27 Sep 2013 04:01 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,338.40 Gold Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 1,332.50 Change : 5.90 or 0.4% Silver Price Close Today : 21.783 Silver Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 21.876 Change : -0.093 or -0.4% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.442 Gold Silver Ratio 20-Sep-13 : 60.912 Change : 0.53 or 0.9% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01628 Silver Gold Ratio 20-Sep-13 : 0.01642 Change : -0.00014 or -0.9% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 235.67 Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Sep-13 : $ 239.70 Change : -$4.04 or -1.7% Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.400 Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Sep-13 : 11.596 Change : -0.20 or -1.7% Dow in Silver Ounces : 700.47 Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Sep-13 : 706.30 Change : -5.84 or -0.8% Dow Industrial : 15,258.24 Dow Industrial 20-Sep-13 : 15,451.09 Change : -192.85 or -1.2% S&P 500 : 1,691.75 S&P 500 20-Sep-13 : 1,709.91 Change : -18.16 or -1.1% US Dollar Index : 80.266 US Dollar Index 20-Sep-13 : 80.454 Change : -0.188 or -0.2% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,414.90 Platinum Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 1,432.10 Change : -17.20 or -1.2% Palladium Price Close Today : 730.80 Palladium Price Close 20-Sep-13 : 720.30 Change : 10.50 or 1.5% Today the GOLD PRICE popped up $14.80 to close at $1,338.40. SILVER gained 6.3 cents (be still, my beating heart!) to 2178.3c. Y'all know that when your car gets stuck in a mudhole, if you gun it you can rock it back and forth, but you're also burning up tire tread. Is it worth it? Silver and GOLD PRICES are burning up buyers to little purpose trading between $1,322 and $1,340 and 2200c and 2130c. Both the silver and gold price have formed small uptrends off the 18 September lows. The gold price today nearly touched its 50 DMA (1,347.03) with its $1,345.20 high, but didn't. It did, however, obliterate the possibility that Wednesday and Thursday had posted a downward island reversal. Thus gold remains firmly in limbo, trapped in a trading range, $1,315 - $1,345. On the weekly chart the gold price must close above $1,434 to break through the downtrend line from the 2011 high. More than that, it needs to clear $1,550, the April breakdown, to prove it has ended its long correction. Silver's weekly chart says it must cross 2250c to beat that 2011-downtrend line, and 2512 (last high) to gain any attention. Then it needs to climb above 2750c, the April breakdown. Silver and gold prices didn't arrive in this hole fast, and it looks like they won't climb out too fast, either. Be patient: all the forces of nature, politics, central banking, inflation, stupid human greed, corrupt crony capitalism, and a corrupt populace, half of whom depend on government spending for their income, are all on gold and silver's side. Until gainsaid by lower prices breaking the present short term uptrends, I will continue to assume that the 2011-2013 silver and gold correction bottomed on 27 June 2013. 'Twas a week depressed by the silly debt-ceiling drama in Washington. That's hurting stocks more than metals, but not doing them any good either. Markets hate uncertainty. Stocks dropped a bit over 1%, white metals were mixed, and the US dollar index is struggling to maintain respectability. How can I wax witty describing running in place? STOCKS. Stocks wrecked today any chance they were forming a falling wedge. Dow lost another 70.06 points (0.46%) and ended at 15,258.24, crashing into its 50 DMA (15,288) and 20 DMA (15,254). Since it did not or has not yet bounced off those moving averages, it's signaling more downward momentum. Relative Strength Index is equivocal but headed down, while the MACD today made a downward crossover. S&P500 doesn't look quite as puking sick as the Dow, but is only hovering above its 50 and 20 DMAs (1680.18 and 1684.74). S&P500 lost 6.92 (0.41%), closing at 1,691.75. Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both trying to roll over for another downleg. Dow in gold lost 1.5% today to end at 11.400 oz, but that's down 1.7% on the week. The DiG's 20 DMA is climbing to meet the falling 50 DMA very soon (11.29 to 11.36), and the DiG stands barely above the 50, 11.40 oz vs. 11.36. Dow in silver closed down 0.7% today at 700.47 oz, down 0.8% for the week. It stands below its 50 DMA, now 702.31. 20 DMA awaits at 675.09. Both indicators remain in a downtrend from the June 27 highs, i.e., lows in gold and silver. CURRENCIES. I believe I'd go ahead and shoot myself and put me out of my misery if my job were managing the US dollar. US dollar index today waffled to the bottom of the little range it has established in the last 8 days. Closed at 80.266, down 26.6 basis points or 0.34%. It has already fallen through support from its bottom channel line from the May 2011 low. If the punier support at 79.50 gives way, the dollar index will spread its wings and fly like a bowling ball. Dollar weakness left both the competing scrofulous, nasty fiat currencies feeling pretty perky. Euro rose 0.26% to $1.3521, but still appears loath to pull away from $1.35 support and rise. Trend, though, remains up. Yen gained 0.71% today to 101.77 cents/Y100. It gapped up, even above its 50 DMA, yet still has not undone the damage from its 1 September fall thru support. Y'all enjoy your weekend! Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. |
| On The Gold Trail In Mexico - Kitco News Special Posted: 27 Sep 2013 03:40 PM PDT Kitco News' AlexLetourneau takes you on a journey through the streets of Oaxaca, Mexico looking for gold. His tour will take you through historical sites and jewelry workshops to learn more about... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://goldbasics.blogspot.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| No Conviction In Sight For Higher Gold Prices - "For Pete's Sake" w/Kitco's Peter Hug Posted: 27 Sep 2013 02:43 PM PDT Kitco News has Peter Hug in studio to talk the Fed, the ongoing debt ceiling debate and gold prices. The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues has moved to the front burner of the market place as the... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://goldbasics.blogspot.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]]  |
| The Bottoming Process for Precious Metals Posted: 27 Sep 2013 02:38 PM PDT In our last editorial we pointed out how the gold stocks had veered off the recovery course. They fell well below the recovery template and fell below their 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, the positive "non-taper" news turned out ... Read More... |
| Jim Grant - The World Will Witness Extreme Monetary Disorder Posted: 27 Sep 2013 02:32 PM PDT  Today legendary Jim Grant warned King World News that the world will witness extreme monetary disorder. Grant also discussed the impact this will have on gold and other major markets. Below is the first in a series of powerful interviews that will be released today on KWN with one of the most highly acclaimed individuals on Wall Street. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2013 01:37 PM PDT "For greed all nature is too little." Philosopher kings are as rare as unicorns. If they do exist… you certainly won't find one in the 113th U.S. Congress. Back in his time, Plato thought that philosopher kings would make ideal rulers. Someone who strove for knowledge and justice for justice's sake. The philosopher king would despise worldly things, as he would seek only justice. It would be a reign free of whim, greed or bias. The big surprise isn't that the majority of politicians do the wrong thing. The shocker is… we're surprised each time they do! Boom, thought Plato. Problem solved. But besides maybe the biblical superstar Solomon, can you name a philosopher king in history? Compared to philosopher kings, real people are scalawags. We all are motivated toward our own ends and goals. Sometimes they're good… sometimes they ain't. Most people seem to understand that when talking economics. Buyers act in their own interests. It's painfully obvious. So is the idea that buyers want more stuff… at a lower cost. But when you start talking politics, that basic idea gets tossed out the window. Why? Politicians are held to different standards. We're outraged when there's a scandal or when political corruption is exposed. We scratch our heads and wonder why our representatives won't stand up for the right things. Why don't they listen to the "American people"? Why don't they follow the Constitution? Why do they roll over on important issues without a fight? "Throw them all out!" some shout. Yeah… and then what? The big surprise isn't that the majority of politicians do the wrong thing. The shocker is… we're surprised each time they do! Do you think Goldman Sachs is in the derivatives business for the common good? Why does anyone think members of Congress are motivated by some higher cause? The vampire squid and the debt leviathan are both staffed by men and women, no? Once you look at politics like you do economics, something becomes painfully clear: Your problems can't and won't be solved by imbeciles and hoodlums in Congress or the White House. Call us defeatist, an anarchist… a fool. We're not just shrugging our shoulders for lack of constructive solutions. The political process is bunk by nature. It will continually leaving you wanting better men to run for office. Washington collects smaller amounts of money from 300 million people across the country. Then it redistributes larger amounts of money to special interests. To the ordinary person, it doesn't pay to be educated on the issues or spend time lobbying Congress. But to the special interests, it pays to spend millions on smooth-talking lobbyists who will go and convince politicians to spend money on them. In 2012, Congress granted the National Science Foundation $325,000 to create a robotic squirrel. The goal was to see how a rattlesnake reacted to it. If you take that $325,000 and spread the cost across all 313 million Americans, do you know how much you paid for the robo squirrel? One one-thousandth of one cent. Do you know the hoops you'd have to jump through to find out this program was being funded, let alone the time and effort it would take to go and lobby your representative effectively? I don't have hard numbers, but I'm taking a wild guess you'd rather part with your one one-thousandth of a cent and spend your time doing something else. But you can bet your bottom dollar that the robo squirrel makers took the time to write Congress and make sure they got that money. Heck, why not? It was good for $325 large! As it turns out… that's the easy way to get votes too. Think of voters as buyers… and politicians as businessmen. Voters act no differently than investors do. Instead of stocks, they use the ballot box to optimize their own "situation." Politics is a super magnet for the self righteous, the blow hards… graft seekers and incompetents. The market has one set of constraints, and the political arena has another. So we see different results. In the market, we can change our mind constantly and vote with our dollars. You can buy one good one day and sell it the next if you'd like. You can be fickle with your choices too. And your neighbor can do what he wants no matter what you do. I can buy chocolate ice cream, and you can buy vanilla. But in the political arena, it's different. You're stuck with Obama for another four years, like it or not. If all your neighbors like Obama and you don't, you're screwed. Likewise, you can't shop around and mix and match laws or policies. You can't say that you like Obama's policies A, C and E and Ron Paul's policies B, D and F. Nope, it's a package deal. All or nothing. Imagine if you were forced to buy a grill every time you wanted to just buy a steak. All of this is why the cycle is nearly impossible to break. The natural response is, "If we had the right people, then they would be able to stand up and break this cycle." Ha! Politics is a supermagnet for the self-righteous, the blowhards… graft seekers and incompetents. Our mind immediately races to Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) who honest to god thought Guam would capsize as soon as a few thousand Marines and their families were stationed there. Is anyone honestly holding out for an elected official to fix the world's problems? No. But you might get a fat check if you play your cards right. If you ask us, too many "voters" are looking for heroes in the wrong place. With the constitutionally granted power to tax, spend, regulate and send people off to war, all congressmen and women should be held suspect. Not just the guys from the other side. The Daily Reckoning is an equal-opportunity offender. We take pride in roasting parties, politicians and policies of all stripes. Fortunately for us, there are no shortages of new policies, new ways to tinker, improve lives, or "right men" for the job. Here's a suggestion. The next time you feel so passionately about a politician who you think will make things right, conduct this experiment on your own: Divide a page down the center and think back to the very first politician. On the left side, total the cost of money spent and frittered away by politicians. Think of the money debauched and of all the lives lost in war and genocide. Then, on the right side, total all of the wealth created, promises that were kept, the lives that have been saved and the justice that has been served and tell us how it netted out. If you get the same answers we do, you realize what a colossal losing proposition the political process is. It's true, politicians don't always power grab, nor do they always destroy wealth or always go along to get along… but that's the way to bet they'll act. In our opinion, that means you have a responsibility to protect you and your wealth. You can do that through electioneering or making smart decisions with your investments. We advise the latter. And we will say one more thing about the government. For every distortion it causes in the market… for every tax dollar it takes from you and gives to another, it creates an investment opportunity. We call it "making the empire pay." Thanks for reading The Daily Reckoning. Regards, Peter Coyne P.S. The government has practically announced where investors can earn gains as high as 12,000% on their money… you just have to know what to listen for. If you read today’s Daily Reckoning email you were given a chance to hear the message loud and clear. If you didn’t… Well, you missed out. But the opportunity is still available, and will undoubtedly appear in our next issue. Sign up for FREE, right here, and start getting the full story. |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month Posted: 27 Sep 2013 01:27 PM PDT |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Gold and Silver Now Move Into the October Delivery Month Posted: 27 Sep 2013 01:27 PM PDT |
| A Surprising Projection for Silver Posted: 27 Sep 2013 01:18 PM PDT Recently, some of our subscribers have asked us to chart silver. The conclusion we draw from these charts is probably not in line with what the majority of traders expect. If the projection is correct, then silver could become the ... Read More... |
| Celente Blasts The CFTC & Bart Chilton & Previews New Trends Posted: 27 Sep 2013 11:58 AM PDT  Today top trends forecaster Gerald Celente blasted the CFTC and Bart Chilton for their decision to drop their investigation into silver manipulation and not file any charges. Celente is the founder of Trends Research, and the man many consider to be the top trends forecaster in the world, also spoke about major future trends. Below is what the acclaimed forecaster had to say to KWN in his interview.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold Markets Are Not Efficient, Don't Reflect Fundamentals and Understate Gold's Market Value Posted: 27 Sep 2013 11:11 AM PDT This is a series on how and why the gold markets fail to reflect the true balance of demand and supply in gold and silver prices. Many investors expect and believe that the gold price is an accurate reflection of demand and supply, but it isn't. In a perfect market the exact weight of demand and supply on a daily basis would be reflected in the daily prices. In both gold and silver markets this is just not true. Many of these factors are common to all markets, but in the gold market the different factors on a broad front are wider and more complex than most. The extent of market liquidity is a key factor in the efficiency of markets so we need to know just how responsive to prices is the liquidity of the gold market. |
| Tocqueville's Hathaway joins battle against manipulation of metals markets Posted: 27 Sep 2013 10:44 AM PDT 1:40p ET Friday, September 27, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed today by King World News, Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway hurls himself into the battle against manipulation of the monetary metals markets. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/27_Br... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... |
| Posted: 27 Sep 2013 10:07 AM PDT Gold's price multiplying by over fivefold since 2001 has unleashed an onslaught of exploration all over the globe. Countless mining companies, both old and new, have sought to get their piece of one of the hottest commodities of the 21st century. Read More... |
| Breaking: CFTC Stonewalls Hathaway’s Request For Information Posted: 27 Sep 2013 09:48 AM PDT  Today King World News is reporting breaking news that the CFTC has just stonewalled 42-year market veteran John Hathaway's request for information about suspicious trading activity in the gold market. This news comes on the heels of the CFTC dropping its 5-year investigation into silver manipulation, despite the fact that two JP Morgan whistleblowers came forward with information that JPM blatantly engaged in manipulation. In this KWN exclusive interview, Hathaway, who is one of the most respected institutional minds in the world today regarding gold, and whose fund was awarded a coveted 5-star rating, discusses the CFTC stonewalling and much more. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Twenty Days ‘Til the Government Is Broke… Again Posted: 27 Sep 2013 09:31 AM PDT Dear Reader, Dan Steinhart here, filling in for David Galland. Let's talk about the debt ceiling. You might be surprised to learn the US government hit its debt ceiling on May 19, as Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad pointed out in his recent article in The Casey Report. For the last four months, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has been shifting government funds around to make ends meet. He will run out of wiggle room on October 17, making that the de facto date that the government runs out of money. If you'll recall, the US government faced a similar predicament in the summer of 2011. Just like today, it was bumping up against the debt ceiling, running out of money and unable to borrow. Both parties in Congress insisted on reducing the deficit as a condition for raising the debt ceiling, and—as a surprise to exactly no one—then couldn't agree on how to best to accomplish their common goal. The two sides squabbled long enough to spook investors and short-circuit asset prices. Stocks plummeted 16.5% in less than a month, a precipitous drop under any circumstances. And when you remember that we were smack-dab in the middle of a raging equities bull market, the drop looks even more impressive. It took over six months to recover those losses. Two years later, here we are again. Unless Congress raises or suspends the debt ceiling, the government will run out of money in 20 days, a fact Republicans in Congress are using as leverage. They cited a list of demands yesterday, ranging from the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline to a one-year delay of Obamacare, that they insist be met before they'll play ball. Given that it looks like we're in for another tedious battle, let's see what investment lessons we can draw from debt ceiling 1.0, to prepare for debt ceiling 2.0. StocksAs I mentioned, stocks fell off a cliff during debt ceiling 1.0. Most financial pundits at the time chalked that up to the supposed threat of default by the US government, a line of reasoning we now know is dead wrong, for one simple reason: bonds soared during debt ceiling 1.0. Treasuries—the last asset you'd want to own if you were worried about a US default—rallied to multiyear highs. Fast forward to today, and the media is again warning of default. Not gonna happen. What will happen, just like last time, is Republicans in Congress will push us close to the edge, watch Democrats squirm, then strike a deal that includes a few goodies for themselves at the last minute. It's the classic "Never let a good crisis go to waste" gambit that both parties use on each other whenever they get a chance. It's silly to expect otherwise. One thing we can always count on politicians to do is act in their own best interest. Allowing the US to default would enrage voters, especially the ones who depend on government money to survive, like seniors and welfare takers. Alienating the voting base by allowing a default would be the dumbest political career move in history, narrowly defeating Anthony Weiner's decision to purchase a camera phone. OK, then why did stocks fall during the debt ceiling 1.0? No one can know for sure, but my guess is because government spending was on the chopping block. Reducing government spending hurts GDP in the short term, which is bad for stocks. Negotiations on debt ceiling 2.0 haven't begun yet. When they do, pay attention to the size and type of cuts that each party proposes. If they're big, stocks could suffer a sharp fall, just like they did two years ago. BondsSee above. Bonds soared during debt ceiling 1.0. That could easily happen again if investors rotate out of stocks and into the perceived safety of Treasuries. Any such move should be fleeting, since investors will quickly remember that the US government is drowning in debt as soon as the crisis passes. But upside volatility in bonds is something to watch out for. VolatilityTo me, this is by far the most fascinating indicator, because it's so far out of whack with reality. During debt ceiling 1.0, volatility spiked to its highest level since the financial crisis. That was the last time anything rattled the US economy in a major way. It's been (relatively) smooth sailing since. Today, the VIX—which measures the volatility of US equities and indicates the level of fear in the markets—is cheap. Stupid cheap. Which is puzzling, considering the serious potential for upheaval once debt-ceiling negotiations begin. We even have the uncommon luxury of a template for how it may play out, since we just went through this song and dance two years ago. Despite these clear warning signs, the markets just don't seem to care. Is Wall Street asleep at the wheel? Are investors still busy celebrating the non-taper and ignoring the next major issue? Who knows. But volatility is cheaper than it has any business being. For readers who trade short-term swings and have experience trading the VIX, it looks like a nice buying opportunity. In fact, we recommended buying a VIX vehicle in The Casey Report in the quiet weeks just before debt ceiling 1.0 became a national headline. Subscribers walked away with a handsome 30% gain in less than one month. In the upcoming October issue, the team is revisiting this trade idea, and if we like the risk/reward prospects, we'll recommend it again, with specific instructions on how to execute the trade. If you want to get in on our strategy when the issue comes fresh off the press, try The Casey Report risk-free today. With our 3-month money-back guarantee, you can cancel anytime with those 3 months for a full and prompt refund. Click here for more details on The Casey Report or go directly to the order form. I'll now pass the reins over to Alex Daley, Casey's chief technology investment strategist and editor of our top-performing Casey Extraordinary Technology service. You've heard the adage that a college graduate makes $1 million more over his or her lifetime than a high school grad? Alex ran the numbers to see if that's true. Just How Much Is That College Degree Worth?Alex Daley, Chief Technology Investment Strategist In recent weeks, after uncovering some frightening developments, I've been digging deep into the subject of student loans, and the so-called "College Bubble." I'll have much more to say on that in the weeks to come. As a preview, did you know that America's student loan balance has exploded by 300% in the past five years? And that, starting this past year, student loan defaults have suddenly spiked to more than double their long-term average? All this looking at the cost and economic load of our higher education got me thinking: just how much is a college degree really worth? From a finance nerd's perspective, that means considering the value of the investment if put toward other purposes. To do so, first we must establish just how much a college degree is actually worth. A study by Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce, The College Payoff, seems to support that million-dollar assertion. According to its data, someone who has earned a bachelor's degree will make (in 2009 dollars) $996,000 more on average over a lifetime of work. Granted, asking the institutions themselves if college is worth it is like asking a barber if you need a haircut. But other estimates I've found, which range dramatically from $550,000 to $1.3 million, are from equally conflicted sources, such as lobbying groups like the American Institutes for Research (which lobbies on behalf of for-profit colleges, amongst others). Of all the sources I've looked at, Georgetown appears to provide the best-quality research on the subject, so we'll go with its number for our baseline. The true worth of a college degree has to be measured in opportunity costs. How much money would you have if you skipped college and invested the money instead? A million bucks less? Not exactly. This is an exercise best suited to a prototype… Ashley Average, born in 1995, is headed off to college along with most of her graduating class. (My fiancé asks, as she reads the draft, "Why does she have to be a woman?" Because more women go to college than men, many more.) Ashley has average grades, comes from a pretty typical dense suburb, and her family has average income and savings, making college a stretch but a possibility. So, wasn't she excited when she got into Median University, a mid-tier Division-II school known for its solidly "good enough" degree programs? The Cost of Going Off to CollegeJust how much is Ashley's college education going to cost her? Estimates for average cost of a college education vary greatly, mainly because of what the authors consider as true college costs: Just tuition? Fees? Books? Room and board? We'll settle somewhere in the middle, which, according to data from The College Board and U.S. News and World Report, is about $25,000 per year ($20,000 for public and $35,000 for private colleges, with far more students headed to public schools). Assuming Ashley pinches her pennies, or defrays some of her costs with a part-time job, and spends only a moderate amount each year on books and supplies, plus food, rent, and other living expenses, a car, gas, etc., we'll peg her other costs at a very modest grand total of about $12,000 per year—expenses she'd have to borrow or (we'll assume for now) have paid by her parents. If Ashley is a model student—no late-night keggers and missed morning classes for her—and manages to squeeze in one or two summer classes, she'll hopefully manage to grab her bachelor's degree in just four years (increasingly, college bachelor degree programs require classes outside the formal schedule in order to meet graduate requirements in traditional timelines), and spend just a few months finding a job. That means she'll have spent about $150,000 in the end. $100K for school, and $50K in net living expenses to make it happen. According to Sallie Mae, a privatized quasi-governmental student loan body that serves a similar role to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Ashley and her family will have to borrow about 27% of her tuition and fees, and pay about half out of pocket: For Ms. Average and family, that means borrowing approximately $27,000 for her core expenses. For her, her parents, and grandparents, there's another $44,000 out of pocket. If Ashley's lucky, her net living expenses, accounting for her part-time job disposing of dead test rats from the biology department, are also paid by her parents over that four-year period, and not borrowed on top of her tuition and fees. If so, then Ashley and her family will have laid out $44,000 for school, and another $50,000 for living expenses, from their savings. Grants and scholarships will have accounted for the rest—and those don't have to be paid back, so the grand total net cost for Ashley and family is $27,000 in debt and $94,000 in cash over four years. The net benefit to Ashley, of course, is that she will graduate with a degree, and she'll earn about $1,000,000 more in her career. Good investment? $123,000 now for $1,000,000 over time… The Cost of OpportunityIt probably sounds good at first blush, but to truly make that assessment, we must first consider the cost of the loan. According to data from the Department of Education, the average student loan interest rate is currently 5.9%. For the sake of simplicity, we'll assume Ashley's loans were all Stafford subsidized loans that didn't accrue interest until after graduation (the taxpayer carries that float). Had they not been subsidized, then the loan balance would jump almost $3,000 by the time she graduates. If Ashley's student loans were typical 10-year payoff periods, then her $27,000 loan would actually cost $35,800 to pay off, adding $8,800 in interest. She would have to pay $300 of her income per month to her loans, a real consideration when average graduate salaries are about $38,000 per year (that's the average across both men and women; Ashley unfortunately is likely to only make $35,300 upon graduation, while her male peers make over $42,900—but we'll conveniently ignore that social bear trap). After payroll taxes, Ashley will be paying about 13.5% of her income to pay off that loan, leaving her with a little under $1,800 per month to live off (with optimal payroll tax deductions, and making big assumptions, like that her employer pays for her benefits or there's no state/local income tax). If she renegotiated the loan to 20 years, as many grads do, she could free up $105 more per month to live on. But that would cost her another $10,200 in interest over the long run. For now, we'll hope Ashley isn't forced to make that call. Then you must consider the value of the Ashley's family's savings, had it been invested instead. Had Ashley and her benefactors put the money that would've gone to college into an investment account and managed to squeeze out a conservative, steady 4% net earnings after inflation, they'd be starting off with a solid sum. We also shouldn't neglect that while Ashley was away at MU, her productivity went into school, not into earning income. We've already assumed, had she worked instead, she would have made enough money to cover the same modest living expenses she would have incurred while in college. She would hopefully have been able to sack away a few dollars in savings during those four years, too. For instance, if Ashley skipped college, that $300 loan payment could now go to savings. Yes, she'd be making a good deal less, but she would also be able to deduct her investments to an IRA or similar deferred account, so we'll meet in the middle and say she'd be able to put away a steady $3,000 per year for those four years she would have been in school, adding $12,000 to her starting figure. Forgetting any subsequent investment during her career, we can take a quick swing at just how much the investment in college might have grown, had it been invested instead. Let's assume Ashley didn't put the money away until the end of those four years, that going forward she will sell 20% of her investments in taxable accounts each year, and that she'll remain in the 25% income tax bracket for a healthy 40-year career. Under those circumstances, her college fund and the $12,000 additional savings, at 4% net interest, would yield her just over $402,000 in today's dollars by the end of her career. That, of course, comes off of a net investment of $106,000, minus a debt service of $35,000 that is now avoided. The net gain: about $330,000. With better tax management, that total could grow by up to $100,000. Add another 1% to the performance, a more difficult task than it sounds, and we are talking $680,000 in gains instead. But even that still doesn't come close to matching the value of a college degree—even if you consider the cost of taxes. That $1 million in salary would be taxed at an average federal rate (after deductions, credits, etc.) of 17.4%, reducing its value to $826,000 in after-tax earnings. Plus, the college degree's earnings can be spent as they are made, increasing quality of life, and opening up opportunities to save more. Admittedly, with a $300/month debt service hanging over her head for a decade, Ashley's net earnings for most of that 10-year period after graduation will be close to what she would have made without her degree, maybe even less at first. But good things come to those who wait: in this case, much higher lifetime earnings. $300-$600,000 invested or lost in opportunity costs vs. $1 million in salary. Still seems like college is a good idea, at least compared to going straight off to work. Had Ashley paid double for her education, however, or failed to make the average salary, it might not be so cut and dry. If she had to borrow her living expenses too, for instance, her debt service would jump to an untenable $961/month for 10 years—or if renegotiated to 20 years, add $61,000 in interest costs. At that point, the excess lifetime earnings quickly give way to the reality of current living. But for Ms. Average, at a reasonable cost, with modest borrowing, it makes financial sense to go to college. A Bigger UpsideThe average case always oversimplifies things. If Ashley were exceptionally bright, her chance at earning more would be greatly amplified with a college degree. Yes, there are those with only high school degrees who make millions of dollars per year. But looking at the stats, those in the 75th percentile of earnings with only a high school diploma earn about $1.9 million in a lifetime, over 40% more than the average. For those with a bachelor's degree, that 75th percentile jumps to $3.4 million. In other words, a college degree expands the upside significantly. As important, it limits the downside: the 25th percentile of bachelor's degree holders still make nearly $200K more than the average high school-only grad over a career. A bachelor's degree significantly improves an individual's chances at success. It's a gamble that our kids will be in that 75th percentile, or above—and really, who doesn't believe one's child could be? After all, being a parent is about providing your kids with the most opportunity in life. It's up to them to take full advantage of it. Declining Marginal Value?Lastly, before putting all the calculations to rest, it's worth considering what my broker always repeats to me: past results do not guarantee future outcomes. These gaps in salary are based on the historical differences between those with degrees and those without—but a lot more people are headed to college these days. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of 18- to 24-year-olds headed off to college increased 35%. Come October 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 66% of that year's high school graduates were enrolled in college. The National Center for Education Statistics (who knew we had a department just for that) says that total enrollment in baccalaureate programs has doubled over the last 20 years. The net result is that America's working-age population is becoming steadily more educated. The New York Times illustrated in a recent piece just how dramatic the increases have been: As college degrees become more common, will the value of a degree fall? Only time will tell, but the forces of supply and demand say yes. So don't be surprised if a college degree earned today accounts for a smaller average increase in earnings over time. But, for now, Ashley is best off going to college. The same, however, cannot be said of all her peers—those who must borrow more or might spend considerably more, an easy feat with such wildly varied college costs. And, as costs continue to soar and more bachelor's degrees are handed out each year, it would be advisable for prospective students and their families to weigh the benefit against the costs more carefully, as the two are quickly moving to converge. Dan again. What do you thin |
| Current Situation in U.S. Dollar and non-USD Gold Price Posted: 27 Sep 2013 09:06 AM PDT In the previous week the Fed surprised markets when it decided to stick with its massive stimulus measures. However, in the following days some officials said that the U.S. central bank could still begin tapering later this year. Since then ... Read More... |
| Lars Schall interviews Jesse of Cafe Americain about gold and silver price suppression Posted: 27 Sep 2013 09:00 AM PDT 11:58a ET Friday, September 27, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Writing for Matterhorn Asset Management's Gold Switzerland Internet site, freelance financial journalist Lars Schall gets some pretty incisive observations from the proprietor of the popular Internet site Jesse's Cafe Americain. Among other things they discuss the nature of money, manipulation of the monetary metals markets, and international financial relations. Of manipulation of the monetary metals markets, Jesse says: "I do not see how anyone who watches the tape can miss it. The sell-at-market of large numbers of contracts in quiet periods, what has been called the Dr. Evil strategy, is hard to miss. The intent is quite clear: to knock the price down for some period of time. A simple rule would suffice to stop this sort of abuse, but it does not happen. ... The manipulation of the silver market has the de-facto sanction of the government and the regulators who have turned a blind eye to it for so many years, so to admit it now would be awkward and embarrassing. The too-big-to-fail banks hold so much power because they can threaten systemic destruction, but they also 'know where the bodies are buried.'" The interview is posted at the Gold Switzerland Internet site here: http://goldswitzerland.com/we-are-seeing-an-all-out-defense-of-the-statu... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT You Don't Have to Wait for Your Monetary Metal: Many investors lately report having to wait weeks and even months for delivery of their precious metal orders. All Pro Gold works with the largest wholesalers that have inventory "live" -- ready to go. All Pro Gold can ship these "live" gold and silver products as soon as payment funds clear. All Pro Gold can provide immediate delivery of 100-ounce Johnson Matthey silver bars, bags of 90 percent junk silver coins, and 1-ounce silver Austrian Philharmonics. All Pro Gold can deliver silver Canadian maple leafs with a two-day delay and 1-ounce U.S. silver eagles with a 15-day delay. Traditional 1-ounce gold bullion coins and mint-state generic gold double eagles are also available for immediate delivery. All Pro Gold has competitive pricing, and its proprietors, longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, are glad to answer any questions or concerns of buyers about the acquisition of precious metals and numismatic coins. Learn more at www.allprogold.com or email info@allprogold.com or telephone All Pro Gold toll-free at 1-855-377-4653. Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| BlackRock sees CEO exits as gold miners book writedowns Posted: 27 Sep 2013 08:28 AM PDT Producers from Toronto to Melbourne are pledging to curb spending and halt expansions after taking $26 billion in writedowns since July. |
| Why gold prices don’t reflect fundamentals – Phillips Part 1 Posted: 27 Sep 2013 08:28 AM PDT Gold Markets are not inefficient, unreflective of fundamentals & understate the metal’s market value, writes Julian Phillips |
| Latest Indian gold smuggling bust snares customs officials Posted: 27 Sep 2013 08:28 AM PDT The recent haul has turned the spotlight once more on the massive rise in the amount of gold being smuggled into the country |
| Sibanye Gold – underrated and underpriced? Posted: 27 Sep 2013 08:28 AM PDT Gold Fields spin-off, Sibanye Gold, offers huge high grade resources, but at a low investment rating due to South Africa's poor global perception, thus enabling a high dividend yield. |
| ‘Subdued’ gold forum yielded little new information – Jakusconek Posted: 27 Sep 2013 08:26 AM PDT In her review of this week's Denver Gold Forum, gold and precious metals analyst Tanya Jakusconek said Scotia Capital's top picks continue to be Goldcorp, Eldorado and Yamana. |
Hello from still somewhat soggy Acapulco Bay,
In the wake of yesterday's breaking news that the Bank of Panama has closed for 5 days for a Bank Holiday, we reached out to SD reader PK, an ex-pat living in Panama for a boots-on-the-ground report on the Bank Holiday.
This morning I received a research note from a private bank I work with occasionally. Buried in the text was a call for lower gold prices, and the analysts listed five reasons why they think gold prices will decline. Here's what they had to say: 
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