Gold World News Flash |
- Silver and Gold Prices have Established an Uptrend
- Silver and Gold Prices have Established an Uptrend
- Big Picture Great For Gold But Bad For Millions Of Americans
- Daily Pfennig: Octaper Gets Added To The Dictionary
- another raid orchestrated by the bullion banks/Comex gold remain constant/Silver imports into India rise by 311%
- CFTC Silver Probe: See-no-Evil, Hear-no-Evil, Speak-no-Evil
- From DOLLAR CRISIS To Golden Opportunity – Mike Maloney
- Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome
- Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome
- Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome
- Iran Sets Framework For Nuclear Program Negotiations: Demands Lifting Of All Sanctions
- Taper or not, The Aussie is Overvalued – How to play it
- There Will Be Hell To Pay When This Tragic Collapse Begins
- In Four Years the Amount of Money Printed By the Fed Will Exceed the Value of All Gold Ever Mined
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Trade Post Expiration In the Last Week of September
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Trade Post Expiration In the Last Week of September
- Stocks End Losing Streak With Low Volume Limp Higher
- Gold: The Audacity of Hypocrisy
- Financial Crisis Ruins a Bear Stearns Bridge Game
- Gold: The Audacity of Hypocrisy
- Massive Gold Earthquake Now Shaking The Financial System
- CFTC Silver Probe: See-no-Evil, Hear-no-Evil, Speak-no-Evil
- Dollar & Gold Price Info from Venezuela
- Dollar & Gold Price Info from Venezuela
- From Golf Clubs to the Space Shuttle and Everything in Between: Carbon Fiber Is Everywhere
- Bye to Larry, Hello to Janet Yellen
- Bye to Larry, Hello to Janet Yellen
- Thailand spot gold exchange mulled
- Will silicosis be SA gold’s next big trial?
- US debt debate to drive the gold price
- CFTC’s 5-year silver market probe ends with a whimper…
- 2013-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle Sales Surge
- Big Picture Great For Gold But Bad For Millions Of Americans
- Debt Clocks Tell the Story: Vicious Upward Debt Spiral Gaining Momentum – Take a Look
- "Lights Out" On The Housing "Recovery"
- GATA gets into Reuters story on CFTC's retreat from silver probe
- Debt Ceiling "To Drive Gold Price" as US Treasury Gives 3-Week Deadline
- Gold holds gains; focus on U.S. debt ceiling talks
- The Gold Market’s Overlooked X Factor
- GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
- Gold steady at 1331.98 (+0.38). Silver 21.86 (+0.08). Dollar better. Euro lower. Stocks called higher. US 10yr 2.64% (+1 bp).
- Gold and Silver Driven by US Debt Limit as 3-Week Countdown Begins
- California Hikes Wages 25%, Saves US Economy!
- Precious Metals “Driven” by US Debt Limit as 3-Week Countdown Begins
- CFTC Believes That Silver Is A Free Market After 5 Year Investigation
- The Gold Price Rose $19.09 Through it's Resistance to Close at $1,335.90
- The Gold Price Rose $19.09 Through it's Resistance to Close at $1,335.90
- GATA secretary interviewed by KWN on CFTC's refusal to act on silver complaints
- The Shocking Truth About Secret Documents & The CFTC
- Fed's QE-Fail Builds Fresh Trouble
| Silver and Gold Prices have Established an Uptrend Posted: 26 Sep 2013 04:33 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1323.60 Change : -12.30 or -0.92% Silver Price Close Today : 21.720 Change : -0.118 or -0.54% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.939 Change : -0.234 or -0.38% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01641 Change : 0.000063 or 0.38% Platinum Price Close Today : 1410.20 Change : -18.10 or -1.27% Palladium Price Close Today : 722.15 Change : -2.05 or -0.28% S&P 500 : 1,698.67 Change : 5.90 or 0.35% Dow In GOLD$ : $239.40 Change : $ 3.06 or 1.29% Dow in GOLD oz : 11.581 Change : 0.148 or 1.29% Dow in SILVER oz : 705.72 Change : 6.33 or 0.91% Dow Industrial : 15,328.30 Change : 55.04 or 0.36% US Dollar Index : 80.548 Change : 0.203 or 0.25% The GOLD PRICE crawfished $12.30, dropping to $1,323.60. Silver backed off 11.8 cents to 2172c. Looking at yesterday and today, the gold price may have made an island reversal downward. Yesterday the GOLD PRICE gapped up from about $1,325 to $1,336, traded sideways above $1,332 yesterday and today, then today from $1,332 gapped down to $1,321.60. Clearly it had not yet strength enough to poke through resistance above $1,337, but was strong enough to hold on above $1,320. Gold's as confused as other markets. So is the SILVER PRICE, yet both silver and gold prices have established a short term uptrend that began with the low on 18 September. Gold's rise has been blocked by $1,340 and silver's by 2200c, but both have been making higher lows. The pattern is a rising flat-topped triangle, a form that usually breaks out upside. Both silver and gold prices remain in suspense. My assumption continues unbroken that the low for the 2011-2013 correction was posted on 27 June 2013. Questioning my urgent encouragement yesterday to get out of debt, one reader wrote, "I thought it's good to be a borrower during periods of high inflation. I was thinking of keeping a modest mortgage on this place." Logic here is that you will repay in dollars cheaper than you borrowed. While that is abstractly true, there's no guarantee that those cheaper dollars will come easier to you than today's dollars. Suppose your wages don't keep pace with inflation, as they never do. Ignoring also the larceny that dwells in that logic, my get-out-of-debt warning springs from a far deeper motive: you can't break a man that don't borrow. Debt makes you vulnerable because unlike the yankee government, you can't print dollars. You must earn dollars to make payments on the debt, or lose the collateral, maybe even go bankrupt. Problem with a "modest" mortgage is that debt, like whiskey, intoxicates. We take on a little, it makes us feel richer, stronger, braver, better looking, smarter, so we keep adding modest amounts until we're debt-drunk and have sold ourselves into lifetime debt slavery. Getting out of debt won't deliver you entirely from our lunatic financial and economic system, but it will extricate you from the banks, and put your feet on your own, owned dirt, small and lowly tho it be. You'll be that rarest of creatures today: a debtl-free man. To me that outweighs the delicious pleasure of cheating a cheater, i.e., paying a bank back with cheaper dollars. Up one day, down the next, back and forth but without the order or purpose of a pendulum. That's the markets. Stocks rose because . . .they've been falling for 5 days? Dow hit its 50 day moving average, so we can credit that with the bounce. I suspect buyers are holding off waiting for the government goofs to do something about the debt ceiling. Dow rose 0.36% (55.04) to 15,328.30. S&P500 rose 5.9 (0.35%) to 1,698.67. May be forming a bullish falling wedge, which would reverse the market upward. Dow in gold rose slightly, 1.29% to 11.581 oz (G$239.40 gold dollars). Dow in silver gained 0.35% (5.9 oz) to 705.72 oz. Downtrends remain unbroken. US dollar index rose 20.3 basis points or 0.26%. Unless the dollar can climb above 81.50, it remains in peril of falling through 79.50 and jumping off the Empire State Building. The timid euro can't pull away from resistance line around $1.3500. Lost 0.27% today to $1.3488. One expects that a punch through resistance as it did about a week ago would carry it higher, but it hasn't. That signals weakness. RSI has rolled over. Surely the euro is set in slippery places. Yen remains in the downtrend that began in early August. Lost 0.51% today to end at 101.05 cents/Y100 and again below its 50 DMA. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
| Silver and Gold Prices have Established an Uptrend Posted: 26 Sep 2013 04:33 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1323.60 Change : -12.30 or -0.92% Silver Price Close Today : 21.720 Change : -0.118 or -0.54% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.939 Change : -0.234 or -0.38% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01641 Change : 0.000063 or 0.38% Platinum Price Close Today : 1410.20 Change : -18.10 or -1.27% Palladium Price Close Today : 722.15 Change : -2.05 or -0.28% S&P 500 : 1,698.67 Change : 5.90 or 0.35% Dow In GOLD$ : $239.40 Change : $ 3.06 or 1.29% Dow in GOLD oz : 11.581 Change : 0.148 or 1.29% Dow in SILVER oz : 705.72 Change : 6.33 or 0.91% Dow Industrial : 15,328.30 Change : 55.04 or 0.36% US Dollar Index : 80.548 Change : 0.203 or 0.25% The GOLD PRICE crawfished $12.30, dropping to $1,323.60. Silver backed off 11.8 cents to 2172c. Looking at yesterday and today, the gold price may have made an island reversal downward. Yesterday the GOLD PRICE gapped up from about $1,325 to $1,336, traded sideways above $1,332 yesterday and today, then today from $1,332 gapped down to $1,321.60. Clearly it had not yet strength enough to poke through resistance above $1,337, but was strong enough to hold on above $1,320. Gold's as confused as other markets. So is the SILVER PRICE, yet both silver and gold prices have established a short term uptrend that began with the low on 18 September. Gold's rise has been blocked by $1,340 and silver's by 2200c, but both have been making higher lows. The pattern is a rising flat-topped triangle, a form that usually breaks out upside. Both silver and gold prices remain in suspense. My assumption continues unbroken that the low for the 2011-2013 correction was posted on 27 June 2013. Questioning my urgent encouragement yesterday to get out of debt, one reader wrote, "I thought it's good to be a borrower during periods of high inflation. I was thinking of keeping a modest mortgage on this place." Logic here is that you will repay in dollars cheaper than you borrowed. While that is abstractly true, there's no guarantee that those cheaper dollars will come easier to you than today's dollars. Suppose your wages don't keep pace with inflation, as they never do. Ignoring also the larceny that dwells in that logic, my get-out-of-debt warning springs from a far deeper motive: you can't break a man that don't borrow. Debt makes you vulnerable because unlike the yankee government, you can't print dollars. You must earn dollars to make payments on the debt, or lose the collateral, maybe even go bankrupt. Problem with a "modest" mortgage is that debt, like whiskey, intoxicates. We take on a little, it makes us feel richer, stronger, braver, better looking, smarter, so we keep adding modest amounts until we're debt-drunk and have sold ourselves into lifetime debt slavery. Getting out of debt won't deliver you entirely from our lunatic financial and economic system, but it will extricate you from the banks, and put your feet on your own, owned dirt, small and lowly tho it be. You'll be that rarest of creatures today: a debtl-free man. To me that outweighs the delicious pleasure of cheating a cheater, i.e., paying a bank back with cheaper dollars. Up one day, down the next, back and forth but without the order or purpose of a pendulum. That's the markets. Stocks rose because . . .they've been falling for 5 days? Dow hit its 50 day moving average, so we can credit that with the bounce. I suspect buyers are holding off waiting for the government goofs to do something about the debt ceiling. Dow rose 0.36% (55.04) to 15,328.30. S&P500 rose 5.9 (0.35%) to 1,698.67. May be forming a bullish falling wedge, which would reverse the market upward. Dow in gold rose slightly, 1.29% to 11.581 oz (G$239.40 gold dollars). Dow in silver gained 0.35% (5.9 oz) to 705.72 oz. Downtrends remain unbroken. US dollar index rose 20.3 basis points or 0.26%. Unless the dollar can climb above 81.50, it remains in peril of falling through 79.50 and jumping off the Empire State Building. The timid euro can't pull away from resistance line around $1.3500. Lost 0.27% today to $1.3488. One expects that a punch through resistance as it did about a week ago would carry it higher, but it hasn't. That signals weakness. RSI has rolled over. Surely the euro is set in slippery places. Yen remains in the downtrend that began in early August. Lost 0.51% today to end at 101.05 cents/Y100 and again below its 50 DMA. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
| Big Picture Great For Gold But Bad For Millions Of Americans Posted: 26 Sep 2013 04:20 PM PDT from KingWorldNews:
We have also been extremely successful in our lending business, which is evidence of the fact that management teams do regard their share prices as undervalued. Circling back to the big picture, what the Fed calls 'quantitative easing,' I call 'counterfeiting.' |
| Daily Pfennig: Octaper Gets Added To The Dictionary Posted: 26 Sep 2013 04:00 PM PDT by Chuck Butler, Casey Research:
Well. As I turned on the currency screens today, I noticed that not too much has changed since I signed off last Friday. The euro has traded back and forth around the 1.35 figure, British pound sterling is well over 1.60, and Gold is still giving back its gains from the no tapering decision. There have been quite a few Fed Heads on the speaking circuit since last week. I saw that Fed Head Lacker was quite adamant about how the markets would get used to tapering, and that St. Louis Fed Head, Bullard, threw a cat among the pigeons late last week by creating a new word, “Octaper”. The markets had just digested the no Septaper, and Bullard shoved the Octaper in their collective faces. |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:50 PM PDT by Harvey Organ, HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.ca:
Gold closed down $12.30 cents to $1323.60 (comex closing time ). Silver was down 12 cents to $21.72 In the access market today at 5:15 pm tonight here are the final prices: gold: $1324.40 At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 613 contracts to 112,930. The open interest on the entire gold comex contracts fell by 1738 contracts to 376,478. At this low level of open interest, it will almost be impossible for the crooks to fleece any more longs from the tree. |
| CFTC Silver Probe: See-no-Evil, Hear-no-Evil, Speak-no-Evil Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:43 PM PDT by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:
Indeed, one would not even attempt such a vacuous non-response to the question/issue of silver manipulation unless they were absolutely certain that their findings would not be questioned in the slightest – as poking holes in this drivel is proverbial "child's play." Thus in releasing such a farcical probe, this directly implies a totally corrupt (Corporate) media – one which only parrots, never questions. |
| From DOLLAR CRISIS To Golden Opportunity – Mike Maloney Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:42 PM PDT
Author, researcher and founder of GoldSilver.com Mike Maloney joins us to discuss the latest segment from the Hidden Secrets of Money… Dollar Crisis to Golden Opportunity. Mike says, “Now the rest of the world are turning their backs on the US Dollar standard. This is going to cause a financial calamity the likes of which we have never seen before. It’s going to be devastating for most people. I don’t want this to happen. But the damage has already been done.” It’s time to prepare. While you still have time to do so. The Hidden Secrets of Money video series is FREE to the public and a service to humanity as a last ditch attempt to wake people up. As Mike says, “”MAXIMUM PROSPERITY CAN ONLY BE ACHIEVED THROUGH INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM, FREE MARKETS AND SOUND MONEY.” Here is Episode 3: Dollar Crisis to Golden Opportunity. Enjoy. |
| Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:33 PM PDT What is the LBMA, and why does it bother trying to forecast next year's gold price...? LBMA conferences have a tradition of everyone guessing the gold price one year hence, and the average being offered back as some kind of guide to professional sentiment, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. You know the idea. Anyone trying to guess how many sweeties there are in a jar – or inflated balloons squashed inside a car, say – will likely be wrong. But average out everyone's guesses, and your answer can prove weirdly right. Forecasting the future then, this wisdom of crowds might help as well. Especially if the guesses are made by industry players, taking a punt at where they see – for instance – the gold or silver price sitting one year from now. But no...  Where's the wisdom? And who's been making these guesses? The London Bullion Market Association is a loose grouping of bankers, brokers, miners, refiners, assayers, mints and vault operators with one common interest: Keeping the wholesale gold and silver markets they work in running efficiently. The LBMA's staff are thus charged with setting and maintaining the Good Delivery standards of the London market's large wholesale bars (1000-ounce silver, 400-ounce gold). These standards have been developed over 250 years and more, since the Bank of England – then as now sitting at the heart of the world's physical bullion trade – began to tell brokers what it would and would not accept into its vaults. To achieve these standards – and again picking up where the Bank of England began – the handful of people on the LBMA's executive team, plus the slightly bigger handful of volunteer committee members, set and maintain the Good Delivery list of bullion refiners. These refiners know the value of Good Delivery status. So they're happy to be poked, prodded and then approved (and spot-checked again from then on) for the production of gold or silver bars meeting the Good Delivery rules. Those rules, which the LBMA sets on behalf of its members, cover weight, shape, markings and of course purity or "fineness". And that, in truth, is it. The LBMA exists for no other purpose, and its members (such as BullionVault, as well as those bankers, brokers, miners and so on) expect it to do no more. The LBMA runs no vaults, and trades no metal. It might represent the bullion industry's interests to government (see Dodd-Frank and Conflict Gold, for instance, again addressed through the Association's refining standards ). But its annual accounts, in fact, show this global association doing its job for less money than your local tennis club probably turns over. Bankers, brokers and the rest however are a clubbable sort, those based in no less than the LBMA's growing membership worldwide, and especially in China. So the odd get-together gives these people, serving precious-metal buyers and sellers wholesale, the chance to talk shop, gossip even, and start new deals and business relationships over a beer or three. Hence Rome 2013, the LBMA's fourteenth annual conference. As cover perhaps for the dinners (and travel – Lima next year, anyone?) two days of expert seminars give the conference a focus. Keynote speakers then add a little spice – Marc Faber at LBMA 2012 in Hong Kong for instance, or Pierre Lassonde in Montreal 2011. Plus, this gathering of 700+ industry players gets chance to voice its collective guess on where prices are heading. It says more about sentiment, however, than direction. The gap between this crowd's "wisdom" and reality 12 months later has long stood out. "Perhaps a sobering thought for those of us," as Rhona O'Connell of GFMS said in 2009, "who profess to have crystal balls." After lagging the gold price so badly through the global financial crisis, the wholesale gold and silver world finally raised its targets, just in time for the price to turn lower. "This year I sensed that the bullishness has moderated and there is less conviction," said Tom Kendall, head of Credit Suisse's precious metals research, when he summarized the Hong Kong conference last year. Yet once more, the crowd's average guess was amiss – this time by being too keen. To see what this year's forecasts are as they come in, follow Bullionvault on Twitter and keep up-to-date with GoldNews, live from the conference floor. Watch also for news and views from the bullion market's premier event as well. Because if nothing else, LBMA Rome 2013's collective gold price forecast might suggest how fast prices are heading in the other direction. |
| Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:33 PM PDT What is the LBMA, and why does it bother trying to forecast next year's gold price...? LBMA conferences have a tradition of everyone guessing the gold price one year hence, and the average being offered back as some kind of guide to professional sentiment, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. You know the idea. Anyone trying to guess how many sweeties there are in a jar – or inflated balloons squashed inside a car, say – will likely be wrong. But average out everyone's guesses, and your answer can prove weirdly right. Forecasting the future then, this wisdom of crowds might help as well. Especially if the guesses are made by industry players, taking a punt at where they see – for instance – the gold or silver price sitting one year from now. But no... Where's the wisdom? And who's been making these guesses? The London Bullion Market Association is a loose grouping of bankers, brokers, miners, refiners, assayers, mints and vault operators with one common interest: Keeping the wholesale gold and silver markets they work in running efficiently. The LBMA's staff are thus charged with setting and maintaining the Good Delivery standards of the London market's large wholesale bars (1000-ounce silver, 400-ounce gold). These standards have been developed over 250 years and more, since the Bank of England – then as now sitting at the heart of the world's physical bullion trade – began to tell brokers what it would and would not accept into its vaults. To achieve these standards – and again picking up where the Bank of England began – the handful of people on the LBMA's executive team, plus the slightly bigger handful of volunteer committee members, set and maintain the Good Delivery list of bullion refiners. These refiners know the value of Good Delivery status. So they're happy to be poked, prodded and then approved (and spot-checked again from then on) for the production of gold or silver bars meeting the Good Delivery rules. Those rules, which the LBMA sets on behalf of its members, cover weight, shape, markings and of course purity or "fineness". And that, in truth, is it. The LBMA exists for no other purpose, and its members (such as BullionVault, as well as those bankers, brokers, miners and so on) expect it to do no more. The LBMA runs no vaults, and trades no metal. It might represent the bullion industry's interests to government (see Dodd-Frank and Conflict Gold, for instance, again addressed through the Association's refining standards ). But its annual accounts, in fact, show this global association doing its job for less money than your local tennis club probably turns over. Bankers, brokers and the rest however are a clubbable sort, those based in no less than the LBMA's growing membership worldwide, and especially in China. So the odd get-together gives these people, serving precious-metal buyers and sellers wholesale, the chance to talk shop, gossip even, and start new deals and business relationships over a beer or three. Hence Rome 2013, the LBMA's fourteenth annual conference. As cover perhaps for the dinners (and travel – Lima next year, anyone?) two days of expert seminars give the conference a focus. Keynote speakers then add a little spice – Marc Faber at LBMA 2012 in Hong Kong for instance, or Pierre Lassonde in Montreal 2011. Plus, this gathering of 700+ industry players gets chance to voice its collective guess on where prices are heading. It says more about sentiment, however, than direction. The gap between this crowd's "wisdom" and reality 12 months later has long stood out. "Perhaps a sobering thought for those of us," as Rhona O'Connell of GFMS said in 2009, "who profess to have crystal balls." After lagging the gold price so badly through the global financial crisis, the wholesale gold and silver world finally raised its targets, just in time for the price to turn lower. "This year I sensed that the bullishness has moderated and there is less conviction," said Tom Kendall, head of Credit Suisse's precious metals research, when he summarized the Hong Kong conference last year. Yet once more, the crowd's average guess was amiss – this time by being too keen. To see what this year's forecasts are as they come in, follow Bullionvault on Twitter and keep up-to-date with GoldNews, live from the conference floor. Watch also for news and views from the bullion market's premier event as well. Because if nothing else, LBMA Rome 2013's collective gold price forecast might suggest how fast prices are heading in the other direction. |
| Gold Price: LBMA Gets Its Crystals Balls Out in Rome Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:33 PM PDT What is the LBMA, and why does it bother trying to forecast next year's gold price...? LBMA conferences have a tradition of everyone guessing the gold price one year hence, and the average being offered back as some kind of guide to professional sentiment, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault. You know the idea. Anyone trying to guess how many sweeties there are in a jar – or inflated balloons squashed inside a car, say – will likely be wrong. But average out everyone's guesses, and your answer can prove weirdly right. Forecasting the future then, this wisdom of crowds might help as well. Especially if the guesses are made by industry players, taking a punt at where they see – for instance – the gold or silver price sitting one year from now. But no... Where's the wisdom? And who's been making these guesses? The London Bullion Market Association is a loose grouping of bankers, brokers, miners, refiners, assayers, mints and vault operators with one common interest: Keeping the wholesale gold and silver markets they work in running efficiently. The LBMA's staff are thus charged with setting and maintaining the Good Delivery standards of the London market's large wholesale bars (1000-ounce silver, 400-ounce gold). These standards have been developed over 250 years and more, since the Bank of England – then as now sitting at the heart of the world's physical bullion trade – began to tell brokers what it would and would not accept into its vaults. To achieve these standards – and again picking up where the Bank of England began – the handful of people on the LBMA's executive team, plus the slightly bigger handful of volunteer committee members, set and maintain the Good Delivery list of bullion refiners. These refiners know the value of Good Delivery status. So they're happy to be poked, prodded and then approved (and spot-checked again from then on) for the production of gold or silver bars meeting the Good Delivery rules. Those rules, which the LBMA sets on behalf of its members, cover weight, shape, markings and of course purity or "fineness". And that, in truth, is it. The LBMA exists for no other purpose, and its members (such as BullionVault, as well as those bankers, brokers, miners and so on) expect it to do no more. The LBMA runs no vaults, and trades no metal. It might represent the bullion industry's interests to government (see Dodd-Frank and Conflict Gold, for instance, again addressed through the Association's refining standards ). But its annual accounts, in fact, show this global association doing its job for less money than your local tennis club probably turns over. Bankers, brokers and the rest however are a clubbable sort, those based in no less than the LBMA's growing membership worldwide, and especially in China. So the odd get-together gives these people, serving precious-metal buyers and sellers wholesale, the chance to talk shop, gossip even, and start new deals and business relationships over a beer or three. Hence Rome 2013, the LBMA's fourteenth annual conference. As cover perhaps for the dinners (and travel – Lima next year, anyone?) two days of expert seminars give the conference a focus. Keynote speakers then add a little spice – Marc Faber at LBMA 2012 in Hong Kong for instance, or Pierre Lassonde in Montreal 2011. Plus, this gathering of 700+ industry players gets chance to voice its collective guess on where prices are heading. It says more about sentiment, however, than direction. The gap between this crowd's "wisdom" and reality 12 months later has long stood out. "Perhaps a sobering thought for those of us," as Rhona O'Connell of GFMS said in 2009, "who profess to have crystal balls." After lagging the gold price so badly through the global financial crisis, the wholesale gold and silver world finally raised its targets, just in time for the price to turn lower. "This year I sensed that the bullishness has moderated and there is less conviction," said Tom Kendall, head of Credit Suisse's precious metals research, when he summarized the Hong Kong conference last year. Yet once more, the crowd's average guess was amiss – this time by being too keen. To see what this year's forecasts are as they come in, follow Bullionvault on Twitter and keep up-to-date with GoldNews, live from the conference floor. Watch also for news and views from the bullion market's premier event as well. Because if nothing else, LBMA Rome 2013's collective gold price forecast might suggest how fast prices are heading in the other direction. |
| Iran Sets Framework For Nuclear Program Negotiations: Demands Lifting Of All Sanctions Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:25 PM PDT Moments ago, John Kerry sat down with the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to once again attempt to reach a deal on the Iranian nuclear program.
As BBC reported, "Iran has been negotiating over the nuclear issue since 2006 with the P5+1 - the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany. Since Mr Rouhani's election in June, Iranian officials have reached out to the West, saying they want to address concerns over Iran's nuclear programme. On Tuesday, Mr Rouhani told the General Assembly that he was prepared to engage in "time-bound and results-oriented" talks. On Thursday, he called for stricter controls on nuclear weapons as part of a global effort to eventually rid the world of them. "No nation should possess nuclear weapons, since there are no right hands for these wrong weapons," he said, speaking on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement at the General Assembly." As is well-known, The P5+1 have repeatedly asked Iran to halt production and stockpiling of uranium enriched to 20% - a step away from achieving a nuclear weapons capability. They have also demanded Iran shut down the Fordo underground enrichment facility. In return, and perhaps emboldened by the recent embarrassment of the Obama administration not only at the hands of the diplomatic finesse of one Vladimir Putin, but indirectly, from Syria's president Assad, Iran was prompt to make it clear that in a multi-polar world in which the US is no longer the undisputed superpower, it has its own set of demands. To wit:
So how will the US respond: will it lift sanctions against the crippled nation, where a dollar shortage has led to the emergence of a black market and a dramatic loss in the value of the local currency which however was insufficient to break the regime, however pushing Iran to set up bilateral trade arranagements that largely bypass the US currency? Or, will the US as a token of good will, succumb to the Iranian demands, and do as Iran asks, further stepping away from the much desired role of a morally superior Globocop? We eagerly await Kerry's response. |
| Taper or not, The Aussie is Overvalued – How to play it Posted: 26 Sep 2013 03:06 PM PDT By: Chris Tell at capitalistexploits.at
We've always been fond of identifying and positioning for macro trends. Getting on board a bull market and riding that sucker for the majority of the move is more than common sense, it's profitable and as a capitalist it's our honour-bound duty to participate. One currency that we've spoken about in these pages previously is the Australian dollar, or AUD for short. For a host of reasons it's one of the most overvalued of the fiat currencies in our humble opinion. Anyone who has been to Australia in the last few years knows of what we speak! Although still trading too high, it has been coming back down to earth since it peaked at 1.12 to the USD in May. That downtrend was recently broken by our friend, Ben Bernanke. First the Fed was tapering, then it wasn't tapering. By now we're all getting used to the "smoke and mirrors" economy. It's a trader's dream...the volatility that is. Suffice it to say the AUD has rallied on the new "non tapering" news. This allows us the opportunity to reposition. Identifying an opportunity is one thing, but executing on the idea prudently and correctly, and managing one's risk is another. We've had some successes trading, but find it extremely time consuming and stressful. As such, we've come more than once to rely on bouncing ideas off of successful friends - guys who live and breathe trading 24/7. Our friend Brad Thomas is one such individual. Brad's a veteran of the markets, trades for a living and is often our first and often our only port of call when considering a trade in almost any market. Brad agrees with our opinion that the AUD is headed lower, and he provided us with a way to play it, which is detailed below for the traders among you. --------
-------- The AUD's recent gains are simply working off an oversold position, and Brad believes this trend is reversing, as do we, and the macro trend will soon reassert itself. As such, this is an opportune time to position a trade such as the one Brad suggests. The RBA (Australia's reserve bank) will meet next week, and we believe it's highly unlikely they cut rates further. They are already at 2.5%, so their room to move is not great. Of course this is increasingly the case across the world as ZIRP bears down on all central banks. All of this is stemming from the broken economies of Europe, the US and Japan. It makes a lot of sense to take advantage of the volatility created by the central bankers, especially if you are a trader by nature. Trade around the volatility while keeping a strong eye on the long term trends, and add to those positions that offer an asymmetric setup. This is in large part Brad's strategy, and it's definitely one we completely concur with. Thanks Brad! - Chris "The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don't cut their losses short." - Victor Sperandeo (master trader) |
| There Will Be Hell To Pay When This Tragic Collapse Begins Posted: 26 Sep 2013 02:41 PM PDT  Today one of the top economists warned King World News that "there will be hell to pay when this tragic collapse begins." This is an incredibly powerful interview with the acclaimed economist, as he gives KWN readers around the world a look down the rabbit hole that central planners are taking us. Michael Pento then issued this ominous prediction, "This will end in total devastation." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| In Four Years the Amount of Money Printed By the Fed Will Exceed the Value of All Gold Ever Mined Posted: 26 Sep 2013 02:17 PM PDT Most people can't begin to comprehend how much a trillion dollars is. Try asking someone how much $1,000,000,000,000 (one trillion) is and you are likely to get a blank stare. To put things into perspective, when the government spends one trillion dollars and pays for it with taxes, the government would have to seize the [...] |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Trade Post Expiration In the Last Week of September Posted: 26 Sep 2013 01:21 PM PDT |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Quiet Trade Post Expiration In the Last Week of September Posted: 26 Sep 2013 01:21 PM PDT |
| Stocks End Losing Streak With Low Volume Limp Higher Posted: 26 Sep 2013 01:14 PM PDT It would have been the worst streak since May 2012 but thanks to a damp squib of a day, the S&P (and other US equity indices) managed to hold on to gains in another 'spikey' day's trading in stocks. USD strength (on EUR and JPY weakness) spooked gold and silver modestly (with gold underperforming) as copper rallied to recouple with them on the week. WTI lifted very quietly to $103. Treasury yields lifted very gently higher all day ending +1 to 2bps only. Once again, the S&P found resistance at the pre-Un-Taper levels from last week and was sold quickly on recovering that level and the Dow remains below pre-Summers-Out levels. All-in-all a very quiet day as individual names from JNY to JCP and from MBI to HTZ caught all the attention.
S&P futures snapped higher into the close - as if by magic - drawn to a VWAP close...
but it is interesting to note the dispersion of sectors from the "Summers Out" close...
10Y yields traded in a 3bps range on the day...
FX markets saw the USD pressed higher as EUR, GBP, and JPY weakened...
With the self-help calls this morning coming at a time of a few headlines from Washington the action in US equities was dominated by the rip-and-dip...
Charts: Bloomberg |
| Gold: The Audacity of Hypocrisy Posted: 26 Sep 2013 12:09 PM PDT SafeHaven |
| Financial Crisis Ruins a Bear Stearns Bridge Game Posted: 26 Sep 2013 11:51 AM PDT The lack of follow-through after the Fed's historic announcement last week leaves us wondering: Have equity investors already priced in "QE Forever"? If so, is there nowhere left to go but down? We will leave that thought on the table… get up… and look out the window. It's been six years since Bear Stearns went broke and five years since Lehman Bros. declared bankruptcy. What, exactly, has changed? After all, the federal emergency workers had not merely pulled Goldman Sachs' nuts out of the fire; they had saved an entire civilization and way of life. We wish we had been there. We would have loved to see the look on former Bear Stearns boss Jimmy Cayne's face. He was once the richest player on Wall Street, with a stake in Bear Stearns worth more than a billion dollars. In July 2007, he was playing bridge in a championship match when executives of Bear Stearns came to the table. "Uh, Jimmy… can we talk to you for a minute?" "Not now. Can't you see I'm in an important game?" "But Jimmy, there's something you should know… something that can't wait." "All right already. What is it? Blurt it out, man!" "OK. We're broke. Two of our hedge funds collapsed last night. We've got no choice. We've got to seek Chapter 11 status immediately." Poor Jimmy. That moment marked the end of his greatness… and prefigured the Great Deleveraging, which would begin a year later when Lehman Bros. bit the dust. Cayne later sold his billion-dollar stake in Bear Stearns for $61 million — and he was lucky to get that. As every sentient biped knows, the developed world entered a financial crisis in 2008. Actually, the first cracks appeared a year earlier with Bear Stearns and distress in the most junky of all junk debt markets — subprime. By 2007, this toxic debt had fallen so far below prime that you couldn't find it with a metal detector. Besides, there was no metal — precious or base — in it. It was all paper. And the paper wasn't worth a fraction of what people had paid for it. But the Lehman bankruptcy marked the beginning — and, as it turned out, the end — of the Great Deleveraging. Thereafter, the feds were on the case… sandbagging the levies… dusting the forests with fire-killing chemicals… drilling escape holes for those trapped below the surface… pushing the debris out of the way… and in general making sure that the disaster was held in check. For this, an adoring press awarded them hosannas and hoorays. Their photos appeared in popular business magazines along with captions describing them as "heroes" and "geniuses." After all, the federal emergency workers had not merely pulled Goldman Sachs' nuts out of the fire; they had saved an entire civilization and way of life. They were successful in preventing a Great Depression. Everybody said so. Was there ever a better time to be a central banker? The press took their words… examined them carefully… and uttered not a critical word. And no one mentioned that the words were hollow, meaningless or plain stupid. Instead, people thought they were being cagey… or intentionally opaque… as though the bankers were playing such a high-stakes game that they were not under any obligation to let their employers know what the hell they were actually doing. (An art mastered by none other than "the Maestro" himself, Alan Greenspan.) And now we look around and wonder: What has improved? How have the problems, imbalances and excesses of 2007 been addressed? One big change, perhaps, is the real estate market in the U.S. It is no longer so bubbly. Ordinary people no longer expect to get rich by buying residential property. Now, it's the turn of big private equity outfits such as the Blackstone Group to try to make a fortune on bricks and mortar. (The group's real estate division now has a staggering $64 billion in assets under management.) Apart from that… The big banks… have they been broken down and broken up? No. They're bigger than ever. Health care… education… defense… finance… Have the zombie sectors been brought under control? No. They are more out of control than ever. And they're devouring an ever-larger piece of GDP. And has excess debt — the real cause of the 2008 financial crisis — been eliminated, or at least reduced? Don't make us laugh… In the U.S. private sector, debt has been cut back… but only a little. The household savings rate rose to 6% immediately following the crisis. Now it has slipped back to about 4%. And total debt (public and private) is higher than ever — thanks to "help" from the feds. According to former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements William White (one of the few economists to accurately predict the subprime meltdown), total debt in the developed countries as a percentage of GDP is 30% higher now than it was in 2007. Even at 77, if we make it that far, we may be able to find work flipping burgers! The feds decided to fight fire with fire. To solve the debt problem, they added debt! The genius of this plan was, we admit, not immediately obvious. But over time, the elegant brilliance of it has practically blinded us. The feds have always had one overriding goal: to transfer money and power to themselves. They create no wealth. They can get it only by taking from others. The crisis — which was nothing more than a natural market correction in an unnaturally extreme debt cycle, caused largely by the feds — gave them cover for larceny on an even grander scale. TARP, QE, ZIRP, Operation Twist — none has had a net positive effect on the real economy. Debt is the problem; each of these fixes has left us with more of it. Obviously, that's not the way to fix things. But from the feds' point of view, the program has worked beautifully. Had the correction been allowed to run its course, deleveraging would have wiped out many investors and many companies — especially in the finance sector. Instead, thanks to the feds' interventions, they are still in business… still profiting from the feds' debt-friendly policies… and still recycling much of the cash back to the feds. News flash: The feds' easy money goes into the pockets of their friends, clients, supporters — and into their own pockets, too. Meanwhile, in the real world, people are struggling. From Bloomberg, a sobering story of a 77-year-old former vice president of marketing for Oral-B who's been forced to flip burgers to make a wage:
Actually, this report has a positive message. It helps settle our nerves. Even at 77, if we make it that far, we may be able to find work flipping burgers! Heck, we might like flipping burgers! But most people will take little comfort from this story. Most people would rather sit at home and collect their pensions. But the feds are ahead of them. Reducing the rate of return on safe investments, the feds have taken trillions of dollars from the pockets of people such as Mr. Palome. Their savings earn little income. And the pension funds into which they pay their money have a hard time keeping up with their commitments. Deficits grow. Defaults and cutbacks loom. Household income is back to levels not seen since 1984. And the number of people with real jobs as a percentage of the working age population has never been lower. If this is success… then give us failure! Regards, Bill Bonner Ed. Note: Living comfortably in retirement should not be an anxiety-inducing prospect. But for many Americans it is. They simply haven’t saved enough, and so turn to burger flipping like poor Mr. Palome. That’s why we give our Daily Reckoning email readers regular chances at real, actionable investment opportunities, specifically designed to help fund your retirement. If you’re not yet a Daily Reckoning email reader, don’t worry. You can sign up for FREE right here. It only takes about 30 seconds and you can cancel at any time. You have nothing to lose and a lot to gain. Don’t wait. Sign up for free today. |
| Gold: The Audacity of Hypocrisy Posted: 26 Sep 2013 11:31 AM PDT Unfortunately governments today wallow in the hypocrisy of politics, particularly when it suits them. America's foreign policy is symptomatic of this hypocrisy from branding Egypt's coup d'état as a "change in government" to the ... Read More... |
| Massive Gold Earthquake Now Shaking The Financial System Posted: 26 Sep 2013 11:30 AM PDT  In the aftermath of last week's disaster for the Fed, today Canadian legend John Ing sent King World News a tremendous piece. Ing, who has been in the business for 43 years, says that a major financial earthquake is now underway and gold is at the center of it. Below is what the 43 year veteran had to say in his powerful piece.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| CFTC Silver Probe: See-no-Evil, Hear-no-Evil, Speak-no-Evil Posted: 26 Sep 2013 10:43 AM PDT When the world's largest commodity futures "regulator" releases the results of a five-year probe; one expects to see a detailed, thorough, and well-reasoned analysis. What we see instead is a pathetic exercise in pseudo-logic – which could have been written in its entirety in a single afternoon. "Shallow" cannot begin to describe the lack of depth in this probe. Indeed, one would not even attempt such a vacuous non-response to the question/issue of silver manipulation unless they were absolutely certain that their findings would not be questioned in the slightest – as poking holes in this drivel is proverbial "child's play." Thus in releasing such a farcical probe, this directly implies a totally corrupt (Corporate) media – one which only parrots, never questions. Fortunately the CFTC has been kind of enough to place all of its pseudo-reasoning in bullet-point form, saving readers precious minutes of their lives which they would have otherwise wasted in going through its drivel line-by-line in order to expose this Big Lie. This makes the task of analysis simple: list these bogus arguments, expose the gigantic, unstated assumption (and omitted facts) upon which these "reasons" are based – and then translate them back into the Real World. 1) Silver cash and futures prices have risen dramatically between 2005 and 2007, with silver outperforming the gold, platinum and palladium markets, suggesting that silver futures prices are not depressed relative to other metals prices. 2) NYMEX silver futures prices tend to track closely the price of physical silver. 3) Concentration levels for the top four short futures traders in the silver market are comparable to those observed in the gold and copper futures markets, and generally are lower than the levels seen in the platinum and palladium futures markets. 4) The composition of the traders comprising the top four short futures traders, in terms of net positions, change over time. These traders represent a diverse group, and their futures positions are driven by an even more diverse group of customers. 5) There is no observable relationship between short-futures-trader concentration levels and silver prices. 6) There is a slightly positive relationship between the total net position of the large short futures traders and silver prices; this suggests that larger short futures positions are associated with higher, not lower prices. All of this report is totally and completely predicated upon one, single assumption, with the exception of arguments (2), (3) and (4), which (because of their specific nature) are also based upon separate, false assumptions and missing facts. The huge assumption upon which the entire CFTC report rests is that the silver market was "normal" at the time it commenced its sham-analysis, a market with supply and demand in balance, and prices in equilibrium. We know that this is an assumption in all of the CFTC's reasoning, because never once does it attempt to address how its analysis would differ if one did not assume a market in perfect balance. In fact, at the time the CFTC commenced its examination of the silver market; the silver market represented the most-tortured, perverted commodity market in the history of human commerce: prices near multi-century lows, inventories totally collapsed, near-complete genocide in the silver mining industry. These fundamentals are so extreme that no "regulator" could possibly fail to be aware of them. Indeed, the CFTC deliberately, cynically chose the absolute lowest point of this multi-century silver trough as the "norm" upon which it bases its entire pseudo-analysis. |
| Dollar & Gold Price Info from Venezuela Posted: 26 Sep 2013 10:03 AM PDT Oh! what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive... In AUGUST, our hypothesis was that we would see falling US stock markets and rising gold prices as the dominant trends of fall, writes Bill Bonner in his Daily Reckoning. So far, we haven't seen much in the way of trends at all. Last week's Federal Reserve 'no taper' announcement should have been followed by robust increases in stock and gold prices. But what happened instead? After the first day, both stocks and gold headed down. Some possible causes... What if the economy were not really recovering at all? You've seen the evidence. Lowest household income since 1984. Falling wages. Fewer people working (as a percentage of the working age population) than ever. Industrial output barely positive. And what if Federal Reserve policy is the main driver of US stock prices? And what if investors had already priced in 'QE Forever'? Then where could they go? Only down, right? Every government wants to manipulate the value of its currency. It will always say it's acting in the name of some public good – to protect citizens' savings...to promote employment...or to stimulate a recovery. You don't have to be a crusty cynic to understand the real reason: to help the ruling elite transfer more power and money to itself. Rarely has that been more apparent than in Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez restricted free trading in the local currency, the Bolivar, to promote his own political ambitions. Most prominent among those ambitions was his desire to be re-elected. And the way to be re-elected is to give (or appear to give) something to the masses that they couldn't get on their own. That, dear reader, is why seven out of 10 American families get more from the feds than they pay in taxes. Government confers on its favourites the right to lie, cheat, steal...and even to murder other people. In a democracy, the will of the majority must be won with these tools; they are all government has to work with. (Government produces no wealth, so it has nothing to offer otherwise.) Typically, shrewd leaders offer giveaways to the poor; Dollar for Dollar, their votes come cheaper than those of the rich. One of those giveaways is artificially low consumer prices. The demagogue announces to the masses, for example, that he will 'not permit the evil capitalists to raise prices on milk and bread and other basic food items'. That's always a crowd pleaser. But the demagogue runs into problems when he is simultaneously ripping off rich and poor by exploding the monetary base. This can cause prices to rise. If he isn't careful, people will catch on. So, he is forced to lie about the source of inflation and put on price controls. Shortages inevitably follow, causing inappropriate investment, consumer binges and other problems...which eventually overwhelm the economy. But the lying, cheating and stealing can be fun while they last - which can be a long time. In Mr. Chavez's case, they lasted longer than he did. And here we have an update from Caracas from Reuters:
The poor travel agent has it wrong. The Dollars are not nearly as stupid as the Bolivars. But both are ignorant in a crucial and destructive way. Prices are information. They are supposed to give us important cues. Low farm prices tell farmers to plant less on the lower 40. High prices of old phonographs tell householders to go look around in the attic. High prices for credit tell lenders to lend more and borrowers to borrow less. Lying about the real value of the Bolivar, the Venezuelan feds have created an awkward mess. But the US Federal Reserve lie too. Prices are set, not by willing buyers and sellers for their mutual benefit, but by the Fed for the benefit of the feds' favourites. The Fed swaps newly created bank reserves for Treasury and agency-backed mortgage bonds, thus artificially driving up bond prices (and driving down yields). Low yields tell borrowers a fib: that there are more resources available to be borrowed than there really are. Borrowers take the miscues. They add more debt. And the entire web of yields, currency values, consumer prices and asset values becomes even more tangled. Eventually, it is so tangled that it cannot be untangled. Like the Gordian knot, it must be cut... |
| Dollar & Gold Price Info from Venezuela Posted: 26 Sep 2013 10:03 AM PDT Oh! what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive... In AUGUST, our hypothesis was that we would see falling US stock markets and rising gold prices as the dominant trends of fall, writes Bill Bonner in his Daily Reckoning. So far, we haven't seen much in the way of trends at all. Last week's Federal Reserve 'no taper' announcement should have been followed by robust increases in stock and gold prices. But what happened instead? After the first day, both stocks and gold headed down. Some possible causes... What if the economy were not really recovering at all? You've seen the evidence. Lowest household income since 1984. Falling wages. Fewer people working (as a percentage of the working age population) than ever. Industrial output barely positive. And what if Federal Reserve policy is the main driver of US stock prices? And what if investors had already priced in 'QE Forever'? Then where could they go? Only down, right? Every government wants to manipulate the value of its currency. It will always say it's acting in the name of some public good – to protect citizens' savings...to promote employment...or to stimulate a recovery. You don't have to be a crusty cynic to understand the real reason: to help the ruling elite transfer more power and money to itself. Rarely has that been more apparent than in Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez restricted free trading in the local currency, the Bolivar, to promote his own political ambitions. Most prominent among those ambitions was his desire to be re-elected. And the way to be re-elected is to give (or appear to give) something to the masses that they couldn't get on their own. That, dear reader, is why seven out of 10 American families get more from the feds than they pay in taxes. Government confers on its favourites the right to lie, cheat, steal...and even to murder other people. In a democracy, the will of the majority must be won with these tools; they are all government has to work with. (Government produces no wealth, so it has nothing to offer otherwise.) Typically, shrewd leaders offer giveaways to the poor; Dollar for Dollar, their votes come cheaper than those of the rich. One of those giveaways is artificially low consumer prices. The demagogue announces to the masses, for example, that he will 'not permit the evil capitalists to raise prices on milk and bread and other basic food items'. That's always a crowd pleaser. But the demagogue runs into problems when he is simultaneously ripping off rich and poor by exploding the monetary base. This can cause prices to rise. If he isn't careful, people will catch on. So, he is forced to lie about the source of inflation and put on price controls. Shortages inevitably follow, causing inappropriate investment, consumer binges and other problems...which eventually overwhelm the economy. But the lying, cheating and stealing can be fun while they last - which can be a long time. In Mr. Chavez's case, they lasted longer than he did. And here we have an update from Caracas from Reuters:
The poor travel agent has it wrong. The Dollars are not nearly as stupid as the Bolivars. But both are ignorant in a crucial and destructive way. Prices are information. They are supposed to give us important cues. Low farm prices tell farmers to plant less on the lower 40. High prices of old phonographs tell householders to go look around in the attic. High prices for credit tell lenders to lend more and borrowers to borrow less. Lying about the real value of the Bolivar, the Venezuelan feds have created an awkward mess. But the US Federal Reserve lie too. Prices are set, not by willing buyers and sellers for their mutual benefit, but by the Fed for the benefit of the feds' favourites. The Fed swaps newly created bank reserves for Treasury and agency-backed mortgage bonds, thus artificially driving up bond prices (and driving down yields). Low yields tell borrowers a fib: that there are more resources available to be borrowed than there really are. Borrowers take the miscues. They add more debt. And the entire web of yields, currency values, consumer prices and asset values becomes even more tangled. Eventually, it is so tangled that it cannot be untangled. Like the Gordian knot, it must be cut... |
| From Golf Clubs to the Space Shuttle and Everything in Between: Carbon Fiber Is Everywhere Posted: 26 Sep 2013 10:02 AM PDT We've gotten used to new technology that comes along and renders obsolete the old tech it displaces. But there are also plenty of instances where the new meshes nicely with the old, changing the world in amazing and unforeseen ways. That's what I thought when I stumbled across an article from BusinessWeek about a five-employee startup company in Maine called Advanced Infrastructure Technologies (AIT). This outfit unites innovative new materials with one of humanity's hoariest engineering accomplishments: the construction of the arched bridge. Specifically, the company has designed a system that allows for the building of a new bridge in as few as 10 days, with no heavy equipment involved. What's more, these structures—because they offer greater protection from corrosive factors like weather and salt—are projected to have a longer life than those made with traditional construction techniques. Although materials are a bit costlier, that's more than offset by savings in labor. AIT's technique involves using concrete-filled, carbon fiber-reinforced polymer composite tubes. Many people probably still think of carbon as the stuff that makes up the human body or the end of a graphite pencil, or what is left over after you burn paper. OK, most know that it also makes diamonds. But turning it into a fiber that's strong enough to replace steel in bridge arches? That doesn't seem possible. Yet it is. Here's how the process—"Bridge in a Backpack," as it's known—works: Whether AIT will be able to convince a sizeable chunk of the notoriously conservative construction industry that this is in fact a better approach remains to be seen. But so far, it has been involved in the construction of 13 bridges, mostly in Maine, Massachusetts, and Michigan. In any event, the unlikely image of bridge supports made out of fiber got me to wondering just what other uses there might be for this miracle material. I knew that my golf club shafts use it, for example, and that it's in some car parts which used to be metal. But where else do we find it? Well, turns out that it's just about everywhere. First, though, just what is it anyway? Carbon fiber, or CF, is a material made up of carbon atoms bonded together in crystals along the long axis into filaments about 5-10 μm (micrometers) in diameter. This is what one such filament looks like; it's laid atop a human hair for comparison purposes. CF is possible because of one of the peculiarities of carbon is that it can exist in a number of different forms (allotropes), depending on the way the atoms bond together. Each of these allotropes—which can be fashioned by nature into coal and by man into buckyballs and nanotubes—will have very different properties. For example, each carbon atom in a diamond is covalently bonded to four other carbons in a tetrahedron. These tetrahedrons together form a three-dimensional network of six-membered carbon rings. Graphite, on the other hand, consists of sheets of carbon atoms ("graphene" sheets) arranged in a regular hexagonal pattern. The structure of CF is similar to graphite, with the difference being in the way the graphene sheets interlock. One surprising fact is that while carbon fibers are generally thought of as a space-age material, their lineage actually dates back to the late 1800s. Thomas Edison used carbon fibers in his early light bulb filaments, which required the ability to conduct electricity while remaining fire resistant and capable of enduring the intense heat needed to create incandescence. In order to make the fibers, you start with a raw material, or precursor. Edison took a cellulose-based precursor such as bamboo and baked it at high temperature in a controlled atmosphere in a carbonization process known as "pyrolysys." It's similar to what we still do today. The technology took a long time to evolve. Bamboo and other such materials were not replaced as precursors until the introduction of rayon into the process in the late 1950s. That yielded the first high-tensile-strength fibers. Shortly thereafter, in the early 1960s, modern CF arrived with the discovery that polyacrylonitrile, derived from petroleum, was the ideal precursor. However, this early manufacturing process produced a fiber that was only 55% carbon. At present, polyacrylonitrile is still the source of 90% of the world's carbon fiber, but purification has improved dramatically, with standardization of quality coming in 1990. The precursor is now stretched into long strands, and then heated to a very high temperature without allowing it to come in contact with oxygen. Without oxygen, the fiber cannot burn. Instead, the high temperature causes the atoms to vibrate violently until most of the non-carbon atoms are expelled. This method of carbonization leaves a fiber that's nearly 100% carbon. Carbon fibers are relatively expensive when compared to similar products such as glass or plastic fibers, due to the manufacturing process being slow and energy intensive. But their properties—high stiffness, high tensile strength, low weight, high chemical resistance, high temperature tolerance, and low thermal expansion—make them desirable for particular applications, especially when combined with resins and molded. (If perchance you have some DIY home projects that might benefit from carbon fiber molding, you can have a go at it, beginning with this tutorial.) That is to say, CF by itself is an interesting material, but alone it's of little value in structural applications. What really kicked its usage into high gear was what happened when it was added to different kinds of resins to create composites, generally termed "carbon-fiber-reinforced polymers" (CFRPs). You may remember the first composite tennis racquets, which revolutionized the game in the early 1980s. And as soon as they could, golfers of a certain age began choosing carbon fiber (usually mischaracterized as "graphite") shafts instead of steel for their clubs, because the former are more forgiving and much easier on older bodies. Even before that, though, governmental and private aerospace efforts had been quick to embrace the possibilities. Carbon fiber composites' favorable strength-to-weight ratio means weight savings of 20-30% over heavier metals. Thus it began to replace steel and aluminum—wherever possible consistent with safety—in airplanes and helicopters… a godsend for the Air Force. But commercial interests weren't far behind. Weight reduction is everything in the airline business. A modern jet aircraft is apt to have carbon fiber all over the place: in its fairings, landing gear, engine cowls, rudder, elevators, flaps, fin boxes, doors, floorboards, and many other components. Much the same happened in extraterrestrial craft. CF has gone into space with NASA and on to the moon. Again, weight considerations are paramount when lifting off from the earth. But equally important is a lower ablation rate (i.e., the speed at which a material is stripped away by the friction of reentry), along with higher bulk density, superior mechanical strength, and high modulus (inelasticity). Carbon fiber composites—including carbon-carbon, which consists of CF-reinforced graphite—that have been densified fill the bill, and are used in nose tips and heat shields. The space shuttle was largely dependent on CF materials. CF/epoxy composites made up the payload bay doors and the shuttle's remote manipulator arm. Likewise for satellites, which require high specific stiffness and dimensional stability to combat the large temperature swings in space. Thus similar composites are employed in fabricating antenna ribs and struts. Lately, there has also been much publicity about unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, as they are more commonly called. UAV bodies are likely to be made of CF materials. So are the gondolas and tail fins used in blimps. But carbon fiber is not only found in such esoteric arenas. It's very much a part of the more grounded aspects of life. For example:
All of this merely scratches the surface. The fact of the matter is that carbon fiber has in a relatively short time become an integral part of modern life. New applications are popping up literally on literally a daily basis. Usage is expected to drive a $13+ billion/year business by 2015. That figure will be amplified a great deal as cheaper, more efficient manufacturing techniques are developed. If carbon fibers were suddenly to disappear, we'd be up the proverbial creek without a (CF) paddle… [Doug Hornig is a senior editor for Casey Extraordinary Technology.] |
| Bye to Larry, Hello to Janet Yellen Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:59 AM PDT So Wall Street and finance's choice for Fed chair has gone. But here comes Janet Yellen... SO LONG Larry Summers! writes Dennis Miller in his Miller's Money for Casey Research. In this game of eeny meeny miny moe, it appears that Obama's index finger will ultimately land on Janet Yellen to replace Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Summers was Wall Street's choice, but he withdrew from consideration, citing potential obstacles in the Senate confirmation process. While I greeted that update favorably, Yellen isn't high on my list either. Before Summers stepped aside, the authors of an article on Yahoo Finance asserted why Wall Street preferred Summers even though we shouldn't:
The authors added that Summers advocated for financial deregulation and shot down legislation capping bankers' bonuses – including bonuses for the AIG unit that helped trigger the banking mess. They went on to root for Yellen, citing her exemplary academic record and history with the Federal Reserve.
Summers is out of the mix now, but the "logic" behind this article made my blood boil. Just because one candidate is lousy does not mean the other is any better. Here is Yellen's highlight reel according to Jim Kuhnhenn at the Associated Press:
Hmm...here's another way to look at Yellen's record: since joining the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors in October 2010 and becoming a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), she has never cast a dissenting vote against the monetary action recommended by Chairman Bernanke. If the near collapse of the banking system was caused by deregulation and AIG's toxic loans – which she spoke out against – how competent a leader is Ms. Yellen? Did anyone heed her early warnings? No; and her inability to push her peers toward preventative measures is an indictment of an ineffective executive. In the business world, saying "I told you so" could get you fired. However, like so many things government, activity is mistaken for accomplishment. An effective executive makes sure he or she is heard and gets the job done. What about Yellen's leadership since the crisis? Last month Sheraz Mian broke down the 2Q earnings reports of the S&P 500 companies in ZacksEarning Trends:
It looks like too big to fail banks are certainly succeeding. So, Yellen's hands-on experience running the Fed has accomplished full employment in the financial sector. Perhaps that's supposed to trickle down to the rest of us. The Federal Reserve publishes a booklet titled, The Federal Reserve System, Purposes and Functions. It says that the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas:
If any public company failed at its mission so miserably, the stockholders would throw out the entire management team. It is time for accountability. What's our bottom line? While the Federal Reserve holds down interest rates and floods the banking system with money, it's destroying the retirement dreams of several generations. The Employee Benefit Research Organization reports that 25-27% of baby boomers and Generation Xers who would have had adequate retirement income – under return assumptions based on historical averages – will run out of money if today's low interest rates are permanent. In short, we can't sit around and hope for trickle-down crumbs from the financial sector. It all reminds me of AT&T's "reach out and touch someone" campaign from the '80s. Well, AT&T got too big for its britches and wanted to soften its image. The Justice Department broke it up shortly thereafter. Seems the monopoly was touching our wallets a bit too much. How much more proof do we need? We are fed up with the Federal Reserve bailing out banks at the expense of everybody else. Seniors and savers have been sacrificed for the benefit of the banking system, and the Federal Reserve orchestrated it all. We can't afford any more of Janet Yellen's so-called leadership. How about nominating someone who can keep her hands to herself and out of our wallets? Whether Janet Yellen becomes the next Bernanke or not, it's important to understand the impact that political decisions have on the financial futures of all investors. I'm definitely keeping track and will have a lot to say, I'm sure, as we get nearer to moving her in. Get all of my commentary on this and other items of interest to you by subscribing to our free weekly publication, Miller's Money Weekly. You'll be glad you did. |
| Bye to Larry, Hello to Janet Yellen Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:59 AM PDT So Wall Street and finance's choice for Fed chair has gone. But here comes Janet Yellen... SO LONG Larry Summers! writes Dennis Miller in his Miller's Money for Casey Research. In this game of eeny meeny miny moe, it appears that Obama's index finger will ultimately land on Janet Yellen to replace Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Summers was Wall Street's choice, but he withdrew from consideration, citing potential obstacles in the Senate confirmation process. While I greeted that update favorably, Yellen isn't high on my list either. Before Summers stepped aside, the authors of an article on Yahoo Finance asserted why Wall Street preferred Summers even though we shouldn't:
The authors added that Summers advocated for financial deregulation and shot down legislation capping bankers' bonuses – including bonuses for the AIG unit that helped trigger the banking mess. They went on to root for Yellen, citing her exemplary academic record and history with the Federal Reserve.
Summers is out of the mix now, but the "logic" behind this article made my blood boil. Just because one candidate is lousy does not mean the other is any better. Here is Yellen's highlight reel according to Jim Kuhnhenn at the Associated Press:
Hmm...here's another way to look at Yellen's record: since joining the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors in October 2010 and becoming a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), she has never cast a dissenting vote against the monetary action recommended by Chairman Bernanke. If the near collapse of the banking system was caused by deregulation and AIG's toxic loans – which she spoke out against – how competent a leader is Ms. Yellen? Did anyone heed her early warnings? No; and her inability to push her peers toward preventative measures is an indictment of an ineffective executive. In the business world, saying "I told you so" could get you fired. However, like so many things government, activity is mistaken for accomplishment. An effective executive makes sure he or she is heard and gets the job done. What about Yellen's leadership since the crisis? Last month Sheraz Mian broke down the 2Q earnings reports of the S&P 500 companies in ZacksEarning Trends:
It looks like too big to fail banks are certainly succeeding. So, Yellen's hands-on experience running the Fed has accomplished full employment in the financial sector. Perhaps that's supposed to trickle down to the rest of us. The Federal Reserve publishes a booklet titled, The Federal Reserve System, Purposes and Functions. It says that the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas:
If any public company failed at its mission so miserably, the stockholders would throw out the entire management team. It is time for accountability. What's our bottom line? While the Federal Reserve holds down interest rates and floods the banking system with money, it's destroying the retirement dreams of several generations. The Employee Benefit Research Organization reports that 25-27% of baby boomers and Generation Xers who would have had adequate retirement income – under return assumptions based on historical averages – will run out of money if today's low interest rates are permanent. In short, we can't sit around and hope for trickle-down crumbs from the financial sector. It all reminds me of AT&T's "reach out and touch someone" campaign from the '80s. Well, AT&T got too big for its britches and wanted to soften its image. The Justice Department broke it up shortly thereafter. Seems the monopoly was touching our wallets a bit too much. How much more proof do we need? We are fed up with the Federal Reserve bailing out banks at the expense of everybody else. Seniors and savers have been sacrificed for the benefit of the banking system, and the Federal Reserve orchestrated it all. We can't afford any more of Janet Yellen's so-called leadership. How about nominating someone who can keep her hands to herself and out of our wallets? Whether Janet Yellen becomes the next Bernanke or not, it's important to understand the impact that political decisions have on the financial futures of all investors. I'm definitely keeping track and will have a lot to say, I'm sure, as we get nearer to moving her in. Get all of my commentary on this and other items of interest to you by subscribing to our free weekly publication, Miller's Money Weekly. You'll be glad you did. |
| Thailand spot gold exchange mulled Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:22 AM PDT The president of MTS Gold, however, says for such a market to have an edge over others in Southeast Asia, regulations governing the market must be relaxed. |
| Will silicosis be SA gold’s next big trial? Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:22 AM PDT Wage negotiations may have concluded but South Africa’s gold sector still faces a number of challenges, not least of which is a looming class action suit. |
| US debt debate to drive the gold price Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:22 AM PDT Analysts at ANZ Bank say they expect headlines around the US debt debate “to drive” the gold price and other precious metals. |
| CFTC’s 5-year silver market probe ends with a whimper… Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:22 AM PDT The CFTC said there is not "a viable basis to bring an enforcement action regarding complaints about alleged silver market manipulation." |
| 2013-W Uncirculated Silver Eagle Sales Surge Posted: 26 Sep 2013 09:20 AM PDT Weekly sales for 2013-W Uncirculated American Silver Eagle Coins were the highest they have been in eleven weeks, the latest United States Mint stats revealed. Many coin collectors are drawn to this version for their lower mintages among the series Silver Eagles. Sales for last year’s individually-sold strike made it up to 202,504 and the […] Related posts: |
| Big Picture Great For Gold But Bad For Millions Of Americans Posted: 26 Sep 2013 08:43 AM PDT  With continued uncertainty in key global markets, today one of the wealthiest people in the financial world told King World News that the big picture is great for gold, but very bad for millions of Americans. Rick Rule, who is business partners with billionaire Eric Sprott, also spoke about the continued decline of the United States. Below is what Rule had this to say in his interview.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Debt Clocks Tell the Story: Vicious Upward Debt Spiral Gaining Momentum – Take a Look Posted: 26 Sep 2013 08:31 AM PDT A vicious upward debt spiral is gaining momentum. The budgets of most advanced economies, As accessed from Wikipedia, according to the Bank for International Settlements, if only one of the following three events were to occur, the increased financial burden imposed by ageing populations and lower growth would make it very unlikely that indebted economies would be able to grow out of their debt problem:
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) adds that if the overall debt load continues to grow faster than the economy, then large-scale debt restructuring becomes inevitable. To prevent a vicious upward debt spiral from gaining momentum the authors urge policy makers to:
Source: Wikipedia To see an up-to-the-second visual of the debt picture visit the links below: 1. World (by country): http://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html 2. U.S.A.: http://www.usdebtclock.org/ 3. Canada: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/Canada 4. U.K.: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/unitedkingdom 5. Australia: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/australia Related articles: 1. What You Need to Know About the U.S. Budget Deficit & National Debt  Q: Don’t laugh at me, but what is a deficit? A: It’s actually not a dumb question. Here’s why. Read More »  The Ponzi bubble is bigger than most can imagine. Western central planners… [continue to try to] suppress gold and silver in order to keep their sorry lives alive. In the process, the destruction of people's financial well- being is unabated… Read More » 3. When the Debt Bubble Bursts We're Going to See Economic Chaos So Get Ready – NOW!  Never before has the world faced such a serious debt crisis. Yes, in the past there have certainly been nations that have gotten into trouble with debt, but we have never had a situation where virtually all of the major powers around the globe were all drowning in debt at the same time. Right now, confidence is being shaken as debt levels skyrocket to extremely dangerous levels. Many are openly wondering how much longer this can possibly go on. [Here's my take on the situation.] Read More »  At this point, thanks to a long-standing policy of wanton money printing, the Fed has more liabilities than ever before in its history – by an enormous margin – and this precarious balance sheet is dangerous, because if the Fed goes bust, everyone loses [- including YOU. Let me explain why that is the case]. Words: 398 Read More » 5. Rapid Rise In Interest Rates Will Collapse U.S. Financial System – Here's Why 
There is one vitally important number that everyone needs to be watching right now, and it doesn't have anything to do with unemployment, inflation or housing. If this number gets too high, it will collapse the entire U.S. financial system. The number that I am talking about is the yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries. Here's why. Words: 1161; Charts: 2 Read More » 6. Economics Can't Trump Mathematics & the Math Says US In a Debt Death Spiral  The madmen who are responsible for the coming economic disaster continue to behave as if they can manage to avoid it. Violating Einstein's definition of insanity, they continue to apply the same poison that caused the problem. These fools believe they can manage complexities they do not understand. We are bigger fools for providing them the authority to indulge their hubris and wreak such damage. Read More »  Anyone that thinks that the U.S. economy can keep going along like this is absolutely crazy. We are in the terminal phase of an unprecedented debt spiral which has allowed us to live far, far beyond our means for the last several decades. Unfortunately, all debt spirals eventually end, and they usually do so in a very disorderly manner. Read More » 8. Why the End of This Economic Death Spiral Is So Hard to Call Whether you are an investor, concerned citizen or merely someone trying to understand the current economic situation, you should be worried. Watch this video to get an outstanding overview of what is occurring. It is probably the best short explanation as to why the end of this economic death spiral is so hard to call. Read More » 9. Lessons of 2008 Forgotten – Debt Threatens to Undo the World Again  Little has been done in the past six years to restructure economies and cut debt i.e. learn the lessons of 2008. Because we've partially recovered from that traumatic period, that's led to complacency. All the while, the debt that caused the bust in the first place has compounded and threatens to undo the world again. Let's hope it doesn't come to that. Read More » 10. Another Crisis Is Coming & It May Be Imminent – Here's Why  Is there going to be another crisis? Of course there is. The liberalised global financial system remains intact and unregulated, if a little battered…The question therefore becomes one of timing: when will the next crash happen? To that I offer the tentative answer: it may be imminent…[This article puts forth my explanation as to why that will likely be the case.] Read More » 11. Japan: A Country On the Brink of Fiscal & Economic Disaster!  I wrote several years ago that Japan is a bug in search of a windshield and in January I wrote that 2013 is the Year of the Windshield. Japan is a country that is on the brink of fiscal and economic disaster Read More » 12. "Ponzi Finance": What Must Happen To Bring It To An End? The Boston Consulting Group has issued a paper that recommends 10 steps that developed countries must take to end what they refer to as 'Ponzi finance' and to return to a sustainable growth path but I believe their recommendations to be but theoretical and impractical constructs. While I believe we face – and will experience – interesting, speculative, fragile, and very challenging and very likely life-changing times going forward, I believe that the only thing that will force developed country politicians to work for common purposes is a further global financial crisis. This article provides an overview and assessment of said paper and the rationale for my position. Words: 600 13. Gov't Debt Will Keep Increasing Until the System Implodes! Are You Ready? Why are so many politicians around the world declaring that the debt crisis is "over" when debt-to-GDP ratios all over the planet continue to skyrocket? The global economy has never seen anything like the sovereign debt bubble that we are experiencing today. This insanity will continue until a day of reckoning arrives and the system implodes. Nobody knows exactly when that moment will be reached, but without a doubt it is coming. Are you ready? Words: 1270 |
| "Lights Out" On The Housing "Recovery" Posted: 26 Sep 2013 08:24 AM PDT Yesterday's new home sales report for August and today's pending home sales report for August further confirms that the "housing recovery," which I prefer to call a "dead cat bounce," has run its course. While new home sales for August were reported as a healthy "gain" over July in the headlines, when you analyze the details the data shows otherwise. In fact, July's plunge in new home sales was revised even lower. I review the August data - along with a quick overview of KB Homes quarterly earnings report - which further confirms my thesis in this article published by Seeking Alpha: Lights Out For The Housing Recovery. In addition, the National Association of Realtors released its Pending Homes Sales Index for August. This index supposedly tracks future home sales based on contract signings. It was reported to be down 1.6% for August. This is not a good sign because typically August is the second or third biggest month seasonally for home sales. The fact that contract signings dropped like this in August is a very bad sign. Speaking of "signs," I'd love to know how the NAR calculates its inventory of homes report. I say this because I've noticed over the past 6-8 weeks that there has been a literal avalanche of "for sale" and "coming soon" signs posted all around the metro Denver area. The NAR must "seasonally adjust" the listings that get reported to it. I travel pretty much along the same routes from central Denver to south Jefferson County every week and every few days I notice more and more "for sale" signs posted. To me it's a sign of desperation when a homeowner or a home-flipper puts a home on the market right on the cusp of the slowest seasonal selling period of the year. My observations lead me to believe that the NAR reported inventory numbers are substantially off the mark. Perhaps intentionally to create the illusion of low inventory. Whatever the case may be, there's a lot of homes in Denver that are on the market that were not on the market in June and my observation stretches across all neighborhoods in terms of demographics. I'm sure the Fed knows everything I've just stated and I'm sure that the probably re-collapse in the housing market played a tertiary consideration in their decision to not taper. Of course, big bank solvency and Federal Government solvency are the primary and secondary considerations, with most of the emphasis place on the "primary" factor. |
| GATA gets into Reuters story on CFTC's retreat from silver probe Posted: 26 Sep 2013 07:25 AM PDT U.S. Ends Long-Running Silver Market Probe, Taking No Action By Frank Tang and Douwe Miedema U.S. regulators on Wednesday closed a five-year investigation into alleged manipulation of the silver market, saying 7,000 staff hours of investigation produced no evidence of wrongdoing. ... But Democratic commissioner Bart Chilton, who had championed the silver inquiry, said he was disappointed. "For me, there's not been a more frustrating nor disappointing non-policy-related matter at the CFTC," he said in a statement after the agency's announcement. The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, an advocacy group that believes the Federal Reserve and banks are colluding to keep gold and silver prices artificially low, said it was not surprised by the CFTC decision. "We believe that the U.S. government is part of the trading operation. In essence, you are not going to have the CFTC turn against its own government," GATA Chairman Bill Murphy said. "We are not even slightly surprised and had expected this." A JPMorgan spokesperson declined to comment. ... For the complete story: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/cftc-silver-idUSL2N0HL1BE20130... ADVERTISEMENT Precious Metals Round Table: On Tuesday, September 24, Sprott Asset Management will assemble four experts for a live Internet broadcast about the prospects for the precious metals. Participating will be Sprott's CEO, Eric Sprott; financial letter writer and internationally renowned conference speaker Marc Faber; Sprott's chief investment strategist, John Embry; and Sprott Asset Management President Rick Rule. To participate, please visit: https://event.on24.com/eventRegistration/EventLobbyServlet?target=regist... Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: |
| Debt Ceiling "To Drive Gold Price" as US Treasury Gives 3-Week Deadline Posted: 26 Sep 2013 06:14 AM PDT The GOLD PRICE held near 4-session highs of $1339 per ounce in London on Thursday morning, keeping yesterday's 1.6% rise after US Treasury secretary Jack Lew warned that the government's "debt ceiling" will be reached in just 3 weeks' time. World stock markets ticked lower with major government bonds. The gold price for Euro and UK investors pushed higher as their currencies slipped vs. the Dollar on the FX market. "Extraordinary measures will be exhausted no later than October 17," Lew wrote to House speaker John Boehner, urging Congress to raise the United States' $16.7 trillion debt ceiling. Estimating that the Treasury will have only $30 billion in hand by that deadline, Lew said net expenditure can reach $60bn per day. That's equal to $191 for every member of the US population. "If we have insufficient cash on hand," says Lew, "it would be impossible for the United States of America to meet all of its obligations for the first time in our history." Analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note today that they expect headlines around the US debt ceiling "to drive" the gold price and other precious metals. Silver bullion also rose early Thursday, before dropping 1.5% from its own 4-session high of $22.11 per ounce. Industrial commodity prices ticked higher, but European Brent crude oil held below $110 per barrel. The gold price "could receive something of a bid over the short-term," says INTL FCStone's Edward Meir, "as worries rise over the debt ceiling talks. "But we doubt whether this variable alone will be enough to keep the complex elevated for long." Turning to US monetary policy, meantime, last week's vote by the Federal Reserve to continue buying $85 billion of Treasury bonds through quantitative easing "will not only stem the rise in real yields," says Deutsche Bank in a note, "but also remove important interest rate support for the US Dollar. "On this basis, we expect this will introduce a strong floor to gold prices, and may even provide some upside risks." |
| Gold holds gains; focus on U.S. debt ceiling talks Posted: 26 Sep 2013 06:06 AM PDT 26-Sep (Reuters) — 26 (Reuters) – Gold traded in a narrow range on Thursday and largely held on to overnight gains of nearly 1 percent as an upcoming Chinese holiday kept investors on the sidelines and their focus turned towards U.S. debt ceiling talks. The U.S. Congress is deeply divided on raising the $16.7 trillion statutory limit on government borrowing, and a failure to do so would push the world’s biggest economy into a default. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew pleaded for quick action as he projected an Oct. 17 date when borrowing capacity would be nearly exhausted and only $30 billion would be left in his agency’s checking account. [source] |
| The Gold Market’s Overlooked X Factor Posted: 26 Sep 2013 06:00 AM PDT Goldman Sachs created a stir recently when it forecasted that gold would fall to $1,000 an ounce by the end of 2014, as the firm expected the Federal Reserve to reduce its bond buying program. Goldman also suggested that gold miners might want to hedge their output, locking in 2013 prices. According to USA Today, almost half of the homes purchased in July were bought with cold hard cash. HSBC analysts have also been bearish on gold, although the firm admits that lower gold prices tend to draw out tremendous demand from emerging markets, especially China. Because of that demand, HSBC believes gold will end 2014 at around $1,435 an ounce, says MarketWatch. Keep in mind that "Goldman Sachs does things that are good for Goldman, not you," says Bryon King from Agora Financial. Things can change quickly in the gold market, as investors saw when, only days after Goldman's assertion, the Federal Reserve surprised everyone by announcing it would continue purchasing $85 billion worth of bonds. Gold investors cheered as the precious metal shot up the most in 15 months. Unlike many commodities, there are many shades to gold, such as the Love Trade's buying gold for loved ones and the Fear Trade's purchasing gold as a store of value. An additional "shade" investors need to be aware of is how the Fed interprets the recovery of the U.S. economy. I had a few reasons to believe Ben Bernanke was going to pull the rug out from under the market's feet. Before word came out, I told Canada's Business News Network that the ending of quantitative easing was not going to be abrupt because it's not a black and white issue. Consider the lack of significant job growth in the U.S., as many of the jobs that have been created in recent history were part-time positions. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) links this lackluster employment situation to President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act. According to the publication's scorecard, "more than 300 employers have cut work hours or jobs, or otherwise shifted away from full-time staff, to limit liability under ObamaCare." While providing affordable health care to Americans sounds honorable, the loss of full-time jobs seems to be an unintended consequence from the onerous regulations placed upon a business. Take a look at IBD's chart, which shows the accommodations industry's average weekly hours that nonsupervisors put in since 2000. During each recession, in 2001 and again in 2008 to 2009, the hours dropped. But since ObamaCare was signed into law, which mandated that employers would need to provide health care coverage for staff who work more than 30 hours a week, the average plummeted. As of July, the accommodations industry workweek hit 28.8 hours, "at a record low," according to IBD.
It's not only about job growth. Housing is also not rebounding as strongly as some people think. I told Reuters that many people don't realize that the real estate market boom has been narrowly focused. According to USA Today, almost half of the homes purchased in July were bought with cold hard cash. In places like Florida, "nearly two-thirds of home sales were completed without a mortgage loan," says USA Today. In Nevada, about 65 percent of buyers paid with cash, followed by Maine, where nearly 60 percent of house sales were cash. Perhaps regulation in the banking industry has made the process of getting a mortgage too burdensome for families? Housing is one of the biggest multipliers for jobs, where $1 spent in housing results in about $16 in related economic activity. When interest rates are low, more people apply for mortgages. They build houses, employ moving services and buy new furniture, which in turn employs more people in multiple industries. But after interest rates rose quickly, the housing market came to a halt. People who once qualified for a mortgage to build a new home no longer qualify at the higher rates, meaning a potential inventory of new housing may quickly build. At the same time, big banks are announcing layoffs in mortgage lending. Just today, Wells Fargo announced it was going to lay off 1,800 employees as refinancing activity continues to slow. The company had already told 2,300 workers to stop coming to work as rising interest rates curtail demand for new mortgages and refinancing. So instead of the Fed quickly tapering its bond purchases and raising rates, this process will likely be very gradual. I believe the government will have to keep interest rates low to stimulate the economy. And that's positive for equity markets as well as for gold. If interest rates remain low, real rates could remain in negative territory. In my presentation on opportunities in resources and emerging markets, I told the crowd at the Toronto Resource Investment Conference that 2 percent has been the tipping point for gold. Historically, gold and silver performed well in a low or negative real interest rate environment.
Regardless of where analysts think the gold price will be a year from now, we believe gold and gold stocks can be an excellent portfolio diversifier. We'd rather hold quality gold companies that are experiencing a growth in resource base, growth in production and growth in cash flow instead of trying to time the market. Our in-depth analysis helps our team seek the best returns for our shareholders. In-depth analysis is why we're headed to the Denver Gold Forum. Portfolio managers Ralph Aldis and Brian Hicks as well as one of our analysts, Sam Palaez, will be attending, meeting with some of the new CEOs about the state of the gold mining industry. I look forward to sharing updates from the conference with you. Frank Holmes Ed. Note: Having a diversified portfolio is crucial these days. Who knows what’s going to happen next? Sure you can speculate all you want on when the Fed will taper or when the debt crisis will reach its peak. The only real defense against an uncertain future is to stay informed and position your wealth accordingly. The Daily Resource Hunter can help you do that. Every day, this free newsletter will show up right in your email inbox and give you all the info you need on the resource market… and regular opportunities to learn where best to place to put your money. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain by signing up. So don’t wait. Get your free subscription, right here. This article was originally featured at Daily Resource Hunter |
| GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Posted: 26 Sep 2013 05:44 AM PDT Gold: There are still several possible structures for primary wave 4. So far we have a three down from the high at 1,433.83. This three down is less than 90% the length of intermediate wave (W) so it cannot be a B wave within a flat ... Read More... |
| Posted: 26 Sep 2013 05:38 AM PDT |
| Gold and Silver Driven by US Debt Limit as 3-Week Countdown Begins Posted: 26 Sep 2013 05:33 AM PDT The WHOLESALE price of gold and other precious metals touched 4-session highs Thursday morning in London, after US Treasury secretary Jack Lew warned yesterday that the government will run out of money in just 3 weeks' time if Congress doesn't approve new debt. World stock markets ticked lower with major government bonds as the US Dollar rose on the FX market. |
| California Hikes Wages 25%, Saves US Economy! Posted: 26 Sep 2013 05:30 AM PDT California is raising the Minimum Wage to $10 an hour! Unfortunately, not until 2016 but this is exactly what we need to really move the economy forward so first break in the dam, thank goodness. Still, it's a 25% increase over 2 years, not bad and not a bad reason to buy gold and silver (yesterday's play on SLW is a good start) as California, no matter how wacky you think they are, usually leads the nation in necessary reforms and this is one that's been a long time coming. |
| Precious Metals “Driven” by US Debt Limit as 3-Week Countdown Begins Posted: 25 Sep 2013 05:00 PM PDT The wholesale price of gold and other precious metals touched 4-session highs Thursday morning in London, after US Treasury secretary Jack Lew warned yesterday that the government will run out of money in just 3 weeks' time if Congress doesn't approve new debt. |
| CFTC Believes That Silver Is A Free Market After 5 Year Investigation Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:58 PM PDT The Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced earlier today that they will close the five-year investigation about silver market manipulation. According to their press release, the organisation has spent 7,000 staff hours of investigation which as produced no evidence of wrongdoing. Reuters writes:
That conclusion comes even with detailed information explained by Andrew Maguire, as explained on Wikipedia:
The man who has been following the silver market very closely since almost 4 decades is analyst Ted Butler from ButlerResearch. In fact, he was among the first ones to discover silver price manipulation in the COMEX futures market back in the 80′s. In today’s commentary, he explains how the announcement of the CFTC did not touch the key issue: the degree of concentration on the short side of COMEX silver (and gold) held by one or two US banks in the August 2008 Bank Participation Report. Shortly after that, it became clear that JPMorgan was the big bank holding the concentrated short positions as a result of the Bear Stearns takeover. Ted Butler writes:
Reuters presents some reactions in their article:
|
| The Gold Price Rose $19.09 Through it's Resistance to Close at $1,335.90 Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:18 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1335.90 Change : 19.90 or 1.51% Silver Price Close Today : 21.838 Change : 0.299 or 1.39% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.173 Change : 0.075 or 0.12% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01635 Change : -0.000020 or -0.12% Platinum Price Close Today : 1428.80 Change : 10.00 or 0.70% Palladium Price Close Today : 724.20 Change : 5.85 or 0.81% S&P 500 : 1,692.77 Change : -4.65 or -0.27% Dow In GOLD$ : $236.34 Change : $ (4.54) or -1.88% Dow in GOLD oz : 11.433 Change : -0.219 or -1.88% Dow in SILVER oz : 699.39 Change : -12.56 or -1.76% Dow Industrial : 15,273.26 Change : -61.33 or -0.40% US Dollar Index : 80.342 Change : -0.251 or -0.31% The GOLD PRICE rose sharply today and felt like it was dragging silver with it. I say that because the GOLD/SILVER RATIO actually rose from 61.098 to 61.173 today. The GOLD PRICE popped up $19.09 (1.5%) to $1,335.90, taking it through a band of resistance that stretches from $1,325 to $1,332. Today also positions the gold price to cross above its 50 DMA (now 1,344.90) tomorrow, or, better yet, $1,350 resistance. None of this availeth much, however, unless gold jumps through the last high at $1,375.40, then follows through by conquering the August high at $1,434.00. So far, gold is confirming my suspicions that it has a secret intention not to drop further. That would change if gold traded below $1,305. The SILVER PRICE jumped 29.9 cents (1.4%) to close at 2183.8 cents on Comex. This is encouraging, this is snappy, this takes silver above its 50 DMA (2181c), but this was not a close above 2200c, or the last high at 2344c. Silver must show us more power. On the other hand, though, it held nicely above 2130c, and has formed an embryonic uptrend. One strong day would attract buyers like free beer attracts moochers. Y'all aren't flattering and deluding yourselves that somehow the system will muddle through this chronic financial and economic crisis, are y'all? It won't. The unthinkable WILL happen. Only two outcomes are possible, (1) default or (2) hyperinflation. In no other way can the colossal government debt (and all the rest of the debt) be dealt with. The longer you ponder it, the stronger and more ineluctable becomes this conclusion. If you are deluding yourself that somehow or other the government-banking cartel can make good on its promises to you -- healthcare, social security, cheap loans, unending prosperity, the good life and the American dream -- you are fooling only yourself, and you will bear the eventual consequences. Y'all ought to start IMMEDIATELY reducing toward zero your dependence on government and the financial system. If you have debt, give your eyes no rest until it is paid off. Cut up and throw away your credit cards. Learn to admire people who wisely drive used cars instead of accepting debt slavery to buy a new car to look good. Kick in your TV set, get to know your own family and neighbors. Spend time with them and ditch you addiction to digital devices and virtual socializing. Plant a garden. Use cash instead of leaving your money with the banks to use as they will to feed off you and destroy society. Most importantly, start building a future that secures your source of revenue and frees it from the banking system. Oh, buy or develop productive assets, and silver and gold, whose value doesn't depend on government or banking. One way or the other, sooner or later, the system will hit the wall in default or hyperinflation. No other exit. Start building the new economy now. Meanwhile, the farce continues in Washington, propaganda to keep the public hovering always between hope and despair, off-balanced and confused, while the end is plain from the beginning. Congress will vote to raise the debt ceiling, because congress can do nothing else. Survival of the system -- and their jobs -- depends on more borrowing and spending, so they will. The system must borrow or die and inflate or die, and as Joseph Stalin said, "Ruling classes never leave the stage of history voluntarily." The drama, however, is unsettling stock and currency markets. US dollar index lost 25.1 basis points (0.32%), a sizeable but not extraordinary move. Dollar index now has a floor of support about 80.30. Puncturing that would flatten the dollars tires and send it lower. Critical is the 79.50 level, beneath which lieth only air. Euro bounced back today on the dollar's woes. Rose 0.41% to $1.3527, but still looks none too ready to climb. Yen closed 101.57 cents/Y100, up 0.29%. Yen managed to close above its 50 DMA (101.41) today, and the short term downtrend line, but who can picture that the Japanese Nice Government Men who have so diligently wrecked the yen these long months would now let it climb? Unlikely. The congressional fiasco continues to sap stock market morale. S&P500 and Dow fell for the fifth straight day. Dow closed below its 50 DMA. No change peeking out here. Dow in gold dropped 1.88% today to 11.433 oz (G$236.34 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell below 700 oz, down 12.56 oz (1.76%0 to 699.39 oz. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
| The Gold Price Rose $19.09 Through it's Resistance to Close at $1,335.90 Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:18 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1335.90 Change : 19.90 or 1.51% Silver Price Close Today : 21.838 Change : 0.299 or 1.39% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.173 Change : 0.075 or 0.12% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01635 Change : -0.000020 or -0.12% Platinum Price Close Today : 1428.80 Change : 10.00 or 0.70% Palladium Price Close Today : 724.20 Change : 5.85 or 0.81% S&P 500 : 1,692.77 Change : -4.65 or -0.27% Dow In GOLD$ : $236.34 Change : $ (4.54) or -1.88% Dow in GOLD oz : 11.433 Change : -0.219 or -1.88% Dow in SILVER oz : 699.39 Change : -12.56 or -1.76% Dow Industrial : 15,273.26 Change : -61.33 or -0.40% US Dollar Index : 80.342 Change : -0.251 or -0.31% The GOLD PRICE rose sharply today and felt like it was dragging silver with it. I say that because the GOLD/SILVER RATIO actually rose from 61.098 to 61.173 today. The GOLD PRICE popped up $19.09 (1.5%) to $1,335.90, taking it through a band of resistance that stretches from $1,325 to $1,332. Today also positions the gold price to cross above its 50 DMA (now 1,344.90) tomorrow, or, better yet, $1,350 resistance. None of this availeth much, however, unless gold jumps through the last high at $1,375.40, then follows through by conquering the August high at $1,434.00. So far, gold is confirming my suspicions that it has a secret intention not to drop further. That would change if gold traded below $1,305. The SILVER PRICE jumped 29.9 cents (1.4%) to close at 2183.8 cents on Comex. This is encouraging, this is snappy, this takes silver above its 50 DMA (2181c), but this was not a close above 2200c, or the last high at 2344c. Silver must show us more power. On the other hand, though, it held nicely above 2130c, and has formed an embryonic uptrend. One strong day would attract buyers like free beer attracts moochers. Y'all aren't flattering and deluding yourselves that somehow the system will muddle through this chronic financial and economic crisis, are y'all? It won't. The unthinkable WILL happen. Only two outcomes are possible, (1) default or (2) hyperinflation. In no other way can the colossal government debt (and all the rest of the debt) be dealt with. The longer you ponder it, the stronger and more ineluctable becomes this conclusion. If you are deluding yourself that somehow or other the government-banking cartel can make good on its promises to you -- healthcare, social security, cheap loans, unending prosperity, the good life and the American dream -- you are fooling only yourself, and you will bear the eventual consequences. Y'all ought to start IMMEDIATELY reducing toward zero your dependence on government and the financial system. If you have debt, give your eyes no rest until it is paid off. Cut up and throw away your credit cards. Learn to admire people who wisely drive used cars instead of accepting debt slavery to buy a new car to look good. Kick in your TV set, get to know your own family and neighbors. Spend time with them and ditch you addiction to digital devices and virtual socializing. Plant a garden. Use cash instead of leaving your money with the banks to use as they will to feed off you and destroy society. Most importantly, start building a future that secures your source of revenue and frees it from the banking system. Oh, buy or develop productive assets, and silver and gold, whose value doesn't depend on government or banking. One way or the other, sooner or later, the system will hit the wall in default or hyperinflation. No other exit. Start building the new economy now. Meanwhile, the farce continues in Washington, propaganda to keep the public hovering always between hope and despair, off-balanced and confused, while the end is plain from the beginning. Congress will vote to raise the debt ceiling, because congress can do nothing else. Survival of the system -- and their jobs -- depends on more borrowing and spending, so they will. The system must borrow or die and inflate or die, and as Joseph Stalin said, "Ruling classes never leave the stage of history voluntarily." The drama, however, is unsettling stock and currency markets. US dollar index lost 25.1 basis points (0.32%), a sizeable but not extraordinary move. Dollar index now has a floor of support about 80.30. Puncturing that would flatten the dollars tires and send it lower. Critical is the 79.50 level, beneath which lieth only air. Euro bounced back today on the dollar's woes. Rose 0.41% to $1.3527, but still looks none too ready to climb. Yen closed 101.57 cents/Y100, up 0.29%. Yen managed to close above its 50 DMA (101.41) today, and the short term downtrend line, but who can picture that the Japanese Nice Government Men who have so diligently wrecked the yen these long months would now let it climb? Unlikely. The congressional fiasco continues to sap stock market morale. S&P500 and Dow fell for the fifth straight day. Dow closed below its 50 DMA. No change peeking out here. Dow in gold dropped 1.88% today to 11.433 oz (G$236.34 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell below 700 oz, down 12.56 oz (1.76%0 to 699.39 oz. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
| GATA secretary interviewed by KWN on CFTC's refusal to act on silver complaints Posted: 25 Sep 2013 04:00 PM PDT 7p ET Wednesday, September 25, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Your secretary/treasurer was inteviewed by King World News today about the decision of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission not to take any action in complaints of manipulation of the silver market. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/9/25_Th... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Buy metals at GoldMoney and enjoy international storage GoldMoney was established in 2001 by James and Geoff Turk and is safeguarding more than $1.7 billion in metals and currencies. Buy gold, silver, platinum, and palladium from GoldMoney over the Internet and store them in vaults in Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, taking advantage of GoldMoney's low storage rates, among the most competitive in the industry. GoldMoney also offers delivery of 100-gram and 1-kilogram gold bars and 1-kilogram silver bars. To learn more, please visit: http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata Join GATA here: Louis Boulanger Now Seminar http://www.gata.org/files/GATAInNewZealand.pdf Gold Investment Symposium 2013 The Silver Summit http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/silver-summit-2013 Mines and Money Australia New Orleans Investment Conference https://jeffersoncompanies.com/landing/speakers?IDPromotion=613011610080... * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT How to profit with silver -- Future Money Trends is offering a special 16-page silver report with our forecast for 2013 that includes profiles of nine companies and technical analysis of their stock performance. Six of the companies have market capitalizations of less than $800 million and one company has a market cap of only $30 million. The most exciting of these companies will begin production in a few weeks and has a market cap of just $150 million. Half of all proceeds from the sale of this report will be donated to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee to support its efforts exposing manipulation and fraud in the gold and silver markets. To learn about this report, please visit: http://www.futuremoneytrends.com/index.php?option=com_content&id=376&tmp... |
| The Shocking Truth About Secret Documents & The CFTC Posted: 25 Sep 2013 03:04 PM PDT  In the aftermath of the CFTC announcing that it has closed its investigation into silver market manipulation, today King World News spoke to the man who has been focused on uncovering sensitive government and market information for over 15 years. What he had to say will shock KWN readers around the world. Chris Powell covered everything from secret government documents, to market manipulation, gold, and what was really behind the CFTC closing its silver investigation. Below is what Powell had to say in this remarkable interview.This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Fed's QE-Fail Builds Fresh Trouble Posted: 25 Sep 2013 02:59 PM PDT Failing to taper QE only makes the Fed's dumb experiment worse... LAST WEEK, writes Chris Mayer in The Daily Reckoning, I was in Manhattan for the Value Investing Congress. And on Wednesday morning, I stopped in at Fox studios to talk about what the US Federal Reserve was going to do at 2 o'clock. What happened at 2 o'clock turned out to be a surprise to nearly everyone. It was also another absurd moment in what is becoming an increasingly dysfunctional and silly market. The whole thing has taken on the feel of a farce. To review: Everyone expected the Federal Reserve to begin to 'taper' its $85 billion monthly bond buying stimulus program. The original idea for the dumb money-printing QE experiment was to boost the economy. I love the chart put out by Zero Hedge on Wednesday, which showed the growth in the Fed's balance sheet compared with job growth. (As the Fed prints money, its balance sheet grows.) Take a look:  Ha! We can add to this that the median household income in the US has also gone nowhere. The Federal Reserve's QE program has been an expensive failure. The only thing it's done is set off another asset bubble, which we will pay for later. Yet there are still plenty of apologists for it. Anyway, the Fed started the taper talk back in May. The market was expecting a $10-15 billion pullback. Instead, as you now know, the Fed surprised everyone. No taper! The market rallied immediately. Just about everything went up. Stocks hit a new all-time high. Homebuilders had their biggest one-day jump since June of last year. Gold had its best day since January 2009. The only things that dropped, it seemed, were the US Dollar and interest rates. This has to be one of the most transparently fake rallies of all time. It shows how corrupted and unreal the whole market process has become through QE. Notice what we're not focusing on. Stocks went up not because of great earnings or dividends or any fundamental reason. They went up because the Fed said it would continue to print a bunch of money. So far, our cautious approach this year has been completely wrong. It would have been better if we just bought whatever junk looked decent and had a tradable ticker. But the game is not over yet... For example, it was nearly impossible to get a hotel on Tuesday night in Manhattan. I had originally planned to come back home on Tuesday, but Fox invited me to appear on TV Wednesday morning. I decided to do that, but had to add a night's stay. Turns out there was some United Nations event starting on Wednesday. A sea of delegates and other parasites descended on Manhattan, soaking up hotel rooms and jacking up the price for everything. I finally found a room at Le Parker Meridien on Hotels.com and paid over $600 for one night! It was a great room and a nice hotel, but clearly a product of a temporary surge of buying. See where I'm going with this as it relates to the Fed's QE? At some point, the Fed will have to taper. And when it does, the Fed-suppressed interest rates will go higher. The stock market, propped up by low rates, ought to come down. Besides that, the market itself is bereft of bargains. In my talk at the Value Investing Congress last Tuesday, I opened with a couple of anecdotes. First, I pointed out that Baupost Group, led by super-investor Seth Klarman, will give money back to clients at the end of the year for only the second time in its 31-year history. The reason is simple: lack of opportunities. And Ryan O'Connor, who is a member of the highly respected Value Investors Club, sent an email to me pointing out that the club's bargain meter is at an all-time low, with 70% of club members saying bargains are 'few'. The other options are 'average' (29%) and 'many' (2%). If you care about downside risk (and if you care about getting value for what you pay), then these are two meaningful anecdotes. They are caution flags. There is also still the matter of another looming fiscal cliff. As economist John Williams pointed out in a ShadowStats note last week, these issues have been napping for two years and "are about to explode...
I was in a cab inching its way down the canyons of Manhattan and kept thinking what ugliness might lie ahead in the market. The glitz and lights of Manhattan under an ominous gray sky served as a good metaphor for the contrasts in the market as well – all rallies and record highs, yet I don't like the look of that stormy sky overhead... |
As always, the big picture is interesting but you make money where the rubber meets the road. We are taking advantage of low equity prices and confusion in the resource markets. We are buying high quality companies with the view that the market will correct itself in the 2 to 3 year time frame.
Good day. And A Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Well, I’m back! Back from Houston, and the MD Anderson Cancer Center. Just in time, it appears, as Chris was sounding as though he was really missing his morning workouts to write the Pfennig! I guess, I should not throw that at him so often, as his workouts are important to him! But, I thank him so much for taking the conn! Sans workouts.
Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:
When the world's largest commodity futures "regulator" releases the results of a five-year probe; one expects to see a detailed, thorough, and well-reasoned analysis. What we see instead is a pathetic exercise in pseudo-logic – which could have been written in its entirety in a single afternoon. "Shallow" cannot begin to describe the lack of depth in this probe.
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