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Friday, February 8, 2013

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Should you buy Gold or keep it?

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 01:00 PM PST

The balance between supply and demand is crucial in understanding how gold prices can remain so high. Gold mining provides the largest supply of gold that is on the market.

Gold market lacks inspiration, direction

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 12:47 PM PST

Asian physical markets are quiet ahead of Chinese New Year, while gold prices in London hovered just above $1,670 in early trade.

Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for February 8

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 12:39 PM PST

HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below.

20130208-DCOT

(DCOT Table for February 8, 2013, for data as of the close on Tuesday, February 5.   Source CFTC for COT data, Cash Market for gold and silver.) 

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In the DCOT table above a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter.

All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.

Harmony Gold says Kusasalethu discussions continue

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 11:54 AM PST

The gold miner said Friday its Kusasalethu mine remained closed as it urged unions to sign a draft agreement on how to mine there in the future.

A Quick Way To Buy The SilverJuniors

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 11:36 AM PST

There are several ways to time the launch of a new exchange traded fund (ETF). One is to strike while a sector is hot, pull in a lot of trend-following money and accept that the fund's performance might be mediocre, since the hotter the sector the more due it is for a correction. That's how it went for the Market Vectors Junior Gold Mine ETF (GDXJ), which nearly doubled in its first year of trading and is since down by more than half. (Full, painful disclosure: I've ridden that train from beginning to end.)

GDXJ

Another approach is to launch when a sector is out of favor, accept that you'll attract very little money up front but hope that good future performance will draw investors later on. That's what Madison NJ Pure Funds has done with its new Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ).

As a group these miners have truly sucked (both operationally and as investments) in the past couple of years, underperforming both silver itself and the overall stock market. This has scared away the momentum players, while intriguing contrarians and non-gold-bug value investors.

As with most small cap sectors, someone approaching silver juniors faces a lack of good information and massive company-specific risk that cries out for either months of in-depth research or immediate diversification. Which is where ETFs come in. By offering instant exposure to 20 or 30 names, they allow someone new to a sector to play while learning.

From this point of view SILJ has launched at just the right time. Its top ten holdings are a mix of familiar and unfamiliar names, almost all of which are closer to their 12-month lows than highs:

SILJ Top Holdings

One of the downsides of introducing an ETF in an out-of-favor sector is that it won't have much initial trading volume. As this is written on the morning of February 8, SILJ literally hasn't seen a single trade. So this is not something you buy "at the market," since "the market" might be 30% higher than the next trade. Instead, choose a reasonable price and put in a good-until-cancelled bid — and then watch it to make sure nothing crazy happens in the meantime.

And of course don't expect results right away. Trends have a habit of continuing, so the silver miners could easily have another crappy year. But at some point both silver and its derivatives (including mining shares) will start moving in the right direction. Listen to this interview with Sprott Asset Management's Rick Rule for inspiration.

Jim Rogers: The bear market in Treasurys could be starting now

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 11:34 AM PST

From Bloomberg:
 
Investor Jim Rogers joined Bill Gross, who runs the world's biggest bond fund, in warning that a rout that sent Treasurys to their biggest loss last month in almost a year probably isn't over.
 
The list of bond bears is growing after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Capital Management Inc. also voiced concern. While unemployment rose in January, Labor Department revisions showed job gains at the end of last year were higher than previously reported, increasing speculation the Federal Reserve will curtail its debt purchases this year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rallied this month to approach a record.
 
"Everybody wants to be in equities," said Hans Goetti, Singapore-based chief investment officer for Asia at Finaport Investment Intelligence, which manages the equivalent of $1.54 billion. "People are moving out of Treasurys."
 
U.S. debt has handed investors a 0.9 percent loss this year as of yesterday, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. It fell 1 percent in January, the steepest monthly loss since March.
 
The benchmark 10-year yield rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 1.98 percent at 8:10 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The yield dropped to a record 1.38 percent in July, raising concern bonds don't offer enough value.
 
Ten-year rates will increase to 2.25 percent by year-end, according to a Bloomberg survey of financial companies. That means an investor who bought today would suffer a 0.5 percent loss, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
 
'Short More'
 
"I'm short long-term government bonds," betting the securities will fall, Rogers, the author of the book "Street Smarts," said yesterday on Bloomberg Radio. "I plan to short more. That bull market, that’s a bubble."
 
It isn't the first time Rogers has predicted an end to the three-decade rally in U.S. government debt. In an interview with Bloomberg News on Oct. 28, 2009, he said Treasurys are the "next bubble in the making" when yields on the 10-year note were 3.42 percent.
 
U.S. inflation may pick up in 2014 to 2016, Pimco's Gross said this month on Bloomberg Radio. Faster inflation "will create an upper drift in long-term yields," he said.
 
Break-Even Rate
 
Rogers said he has been short bonds two or three times in the last few years. A short position is a bet an asset will decline. Gross reiterated his earlier warnings about costs in the economy.
 
The difference between yields on 10-year notes and similar- maturity Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, a gauge of trader expectations for consumer prices over the life of the debt, was 2.55 percent today. The figure compares to the average over the past decade of 2.19 percent and the current inflation rate of 1.7 percent.
 
The S&P 500 gained 6 percent this year. It is within 5 percent of its record high reached in October 2007.
 
Japanese sovereign bonds have returned 0.2 percent in 2013, the Bank of America data show. The two-year yield fell two basis points to 0.025 percent, the lowest for that maturity since September 2002.
 
"At best, bond yields will move sideways in the next several years, but it would not be surprising if yields trend higher," James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital in Minneapolis, wrote in a report yesterday. "While bonds have provided very competitive returns relative to the stock market since 1980, this era has probably ended."
 
The Fed said Jan. 30 it is committed to buying about $85 billion of government and mortgage securities a month as long as the jobless rate stays above 6.5 percent and inflation is below 2.5 percent. Unemployment rose to 7.9 percent in January and consumer-price gains remain below the central bank's target. The U.S. economy contracted 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter.
 
Labor Market
 
The Labor Department also revised its jobs figures for November and December higher. Revisions added 127,000 jobs to the tally in the last two months of 2012.
 
Fed Bank of Kansas City President Esther George voted against the central bank's decision, saying it risks increasing inflation expectations. Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 11-12 meeting showed members divided between a mid- or end-of-year finish to bond purchases.
 
Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said demand for debt may fade.
 
"Am I concerned that we could be in a bond bubble sometime in the future? Yes, I'm concerned," he said this week in a Bloomberg Television interview in Hong Kong. "At some point, it's not going to be the best market to be invested in."
 
To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net.
 
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net.
 
More from Jim Rogers:
 
 
 

This common belief about gold stocks is wrong

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 11:34 AM PST

From Louis James, Chief Metals & Mining Investment Strategist, Casey Research:
 
We often hear the claim that gold producers have not met investors' expectations for the past couple years. While there are many potential reasons for this, one explanation for their underperformance lies in the fact that producers diluted their share structures, leaving shareholders with smaller gains than they would have otherwise harvested.
 
To show how this dilution has impacted the industry, let's first review how gold miners performed last year compared to the S&P 500.
 
The chart is hardly a surprise: the precious-metals producers had a poor showing, losing 26.6% in 2012 – something we think will reverse this year – while stocks in the S&P 500 delivered a solid 14.2% annual gain.
 
We think that while last year's performance of the S&P 500 companies is commendable, the future may disappoint investors who believe the U.S. economic recovery is on solid footing: last week's GDP data suggest that our economy continues to struggle, something that was immediately reflected in the price of gold the day the news was released.
 
As 2013 progresses, we expect to see...
 
 
More on gold stocks:
 
 
 

Nothing At All, Then All at Once

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 11:07 AM PST

Where money was tight, suddenly it's all arrived at once. Just like trouble does...

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GGR Members Note Changes Today, Friday

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 10:43 AM PST

Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please log in and navigate to the GGR Charts section as well as today's daily commentary to note an important change in our positioning in the silver futures market.   In addition we have been "nibbling" on several of the VBCI issues, while reducing exposure to others, as noted in the various Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest charts. 

That is all.  Carry on. 

20130206 - Vik small

Gold market lacks direction and commitment

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 10:22 AM PST

Dealers in India reported Friday that higher local gold prices were weakening demand after the Rupee fell to a one-week low against the Dollar.

Gold, bonds and the dollar: Short- and long-term implications

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 10:12 AM PST

A trend is a trend until it stops. Could this be the case for bonds? Is the bond bubble about to burst? And if so, what are the implications for precious metals?

Silver Prices – The Big Picture

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:57 AM PST

Question: What do May 2004, January 2005, August 2005, June 2006, October 2008, February 2010, September 2011, December 2011, June 2012, and December 2012 have in common? Answer: They represented significant price lows in silver, AND those lows were confirmed … Continue reading

Carlin Trend Co-Discoverer Livermore dead at 94

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:50 AM PST

Prospector, geologist, rancher and public resource advocate John Sealy Livermore was the last surviving member of three men considered the fathers of the Carlin Trend and "invisible gold" deposits.

Platinum rises on miner strikes as gold stagnates in range

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:48 AM PST

Miners' strikes in South Africa have contributed to a significant rise in the platinum price, so much so that it is now trading at a premium of $50 to gold. Gold itself has been range-bound last week between $1,680-$1,660.

India unlikely to offer Gold for oil scheme to Iran again

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:37 AM PST

Though Gold is a highly unlikely payment option, India categorically stated that it would continue to purchase Iranian oil, which is imperative for the country's energy security.

Gold market "lacks direction and commitment," Asian physical demand "quiet"

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:34 AM PST

Heading into the weekend, gold looked to be headed for a second straight weekly gain by Friday lunchtime in London, although it was only a few dollars up on last week's close.

Does IRS Have Its Sites Set on Roth IRA's?

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:30 AM PST

By SD Contributor AGXIIK: The government says that once the Roth is converted, there are no taxes on withdrawals after that.  Of course, the gummint is great at the big lie.  Anytime in the future the Roth safe harbor could be cancelled.  All a president would have to do is pull the NDRP or NDAA [...]

It Will Be Currency-Induced Cost-Push Inflation

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:30 AM PST

READ THE FULL NEWSLETTER

Yesterday afternoon, Susan and I went to see Zero Dark Thirty.  We loved the movie.  It's amazing what the affect of just ONE dedicated person can be.  One never-say-die lady was responsible for finding and killing Osama bin Laden.  Every one of us can make a difference.

After the movie, we had dinner with David Young, a musician friend we met here in Miami last year.  Somehow the conversation turned to the economy and he said, "I am a pretty good judge of the economy.  Last year I traveled to a different city on 40 weekends.  Business is way off, and has been falling for a long time."

David sells spiritual music that he plays on the flute, the kind you would hear in a SPA or elevator.  He produces his own CDs and he sells them at art shows and to small retailers.  He has witnessed, first hand, the decline of the "small business" in America.  He used to sell to 3,000 small shops and now he has less than 100.  These small businesses were the backbone of the US economy, so he is keenly aware of the decline of our Middle Class.  He met Harry Dent on a cruise and was impressed with what he had to say.

That's when the discussion got interesting.

For those of you who don't know much about Harry Dent, he also talks about the collapse of the Middle Class, and America, but he says that we are heading toward a deflationary collapse, and therefore he says the best protection is to stay invested in the U. S. dollar.   (In a Depression, cash is king)

I told David Young that I agreed that the Middle Class has been decimated.  Susan and I both experienced it first-hand, back in the mid-70s.  Susan was a rep for several women's clothing lines and she traveled Minnesota, Iowa, western Wisconsin and North Dakota.  Her accounts were small rural specialty shops.  One by one, those small rural specialty shops closed their doors.  They were being run out of business by a new breed of competition; the discount store.  Target, Wal-Mart and Kmart were taking away their customers.

In those days, I worked for Champion (Rochester, NY) selling imprinted sportswear and custom-made athletic uniforms to the schools in Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  Champion manufactured their gym uniforms, sweatshirts, and athletic uniforms in Lavonia, NY and in North Carolina.  By the late 70s, Champion was closing down all of their clothing factories and buying from overseas.  Today, Champion is totally out of the schools and sells t-shirts, sweatshirts, socks and underwear only to large retailers like Target, JCPenney. Wal-Mart, etc. and all of their clothing is manufactured outside of the United States.

So, I agreed with David Young's assessment that the middle class in disappearing, but I strongly disagreed with Harry Dent's views that we are headed toward a deflationary depression.  No, I said, we are more likely headed toward a hyper-inflationary depression, a view I share with John Williams and Gerald Celente.

David Young focused on falling prices (his CDs) due to the "Wal-Mart" affect.  His specialty stores sold his CDs for $20 and the discounters were buying them from China and offering them at less than half the price.  The big discounters and the internet were responsible for cutting profits, lowering prices and killing off small business throughout America.  He is correct.  His conclusion, and Harry Dent's is that falling DEMAND and lower prices are deflationary.   They can be.  But that's where Jim Sinclair's "currency-induced, cost-push-inflation" comes into play.  Not demand-pull, but cost-push!  In other words, prices will rise not due to more demand, but due to a debased currency that buys less.  Does this sound a bit like QE-to Infinity to you?

Check out what is happening to money creation (QE) in Japan.  Richard Russell, Jim Sinclair and Monty Guild discuss what is going on in Japan & the US and you can quickly add Europe, China and the BRICS to the list as well.  The industrialized world is fighting a currency war.  The ammunition you stock up on in a currency war is YOUR CURRENCY.  They are your bullets.  The more you print, the less the currency is worth, the cheaper it becomes and the greater your trading (exporting) business becomes.  But when we do it, it fosters global inflation, since the dollar is the world's reserve currency (at least for now).

After my discussion, I think I David understood why "things" will rise in price.  We can thank Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke's easy money, low-interest rate policies (to infinity) for that.  We are "exporting" some $600 billion dollars a year over seas (trade deficit) and the dollars over there are used to buy food, oil, copper, and all the commodities and that are driving up the price.  The "demand" is a result of massive dollar inflation, here and abroad.  There are more dollars floating around, creating more demand.

Arab Spring was not about a desire for "Democracy."  It was about an empty stomach.  The average daily wage in the Mid East runs something like $2 a day and most of it goes toward food.  When our dollar-debasing caused the price of commodities to rise (commodities are denominated in dollars), they no longer had enough money left to feed their families.  That's when people pour into the streets with their empty stomachs and their anger.

I wonder what will happen when our "welfare state" no longer provides enough money (unemployment, Social Security) to feed our people.  If you are on a fixed-income, the rise in prices (currency-induced, cost push, not demand pull) will be impossible to navigate.  What do you give up?  Food?  Shelter?  Medicine?  Do you think there is any correlation here between the potential problem I am discussing and US Government agencies stockpiling ammunition (most recently including the Social Security Agency – 174,000 bullets -  and Homeland Security – 1.4 billion rounds of ammo), and the joint government/local police training exercises seen recently here in Miami, LA and in Houston?  I'm hoping this is a stretch, but…

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Jim Sinclair: Positive Gold Outlook So Control Your Emotions

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:26 AM PST

We are often quoting Jim Sinclair with a good reason. He is one of the true experts, someone who lived through the gold bull market of the 70′s. He was among the most successful gold traders and he has worked in various roles in the financial markets. That is a unique combination that justifies trust in his words, which are full of wisdom.

In the past days he has reacted more than usual to his subscribers. It probably indicates that gold holders and investors get too nervous about the long consolidation period. The general mood becomes bearish, driven by the price of the metals, the awful performance of the gold shares and negative outlook reports (one of them has been analyzed by us). That's reflected in the Hulbert Gold Sentiment index (courtesy SentimenTrader.com).

gold sentiment index Jan 2013 gold silver experts

Contrarians should interpret these signals as bullish indicators. That is Jim Sinclair his interpretation as well. He explains in detail why he believes the correction in precious metals is over and confirms his short and long term outlook.

Catalyst for higher gold

Given the consolidation in gold and silver prices of more than 1.5 year now, one rightfully should ask what the next catalyst will be. This is how Jim Sinclair looks at this question:

Gold has always been a war between sound finance and debt ridden currencies. You are armed with the knowledge of how to frustrate this manipulation for theft. Fear not because $3500 is the next stop once we frustrate these beasts of paper. The next phase of the Gold Market will be driven monetarily. This phase will take gold to the point whereby marking the gold reserves of the deficit nations to the market move towards balance and balance will be struck.

The link between QE, bonds and equities

In his latest update, Jim Sinclair an important market relationship which is directly correlated with each other. 

Interest rates and the government bond market are one and the same. You cannot predict higher interest rates if you also predict QE to infinity. QE is the non economic purchase of government and other debt securities.  Therefore as long as QE expands to meet the size of bond offering, the bond market will stay bullish and interest rates will not rise significantly.

If you adhere to the prediction of higher interest rates then you are saying QE will cease or contract significantly. As long as QE is increased, as it just has been, bond bears will continue to get crushed. You cannot separate predictions on interest rates from predictions on the conditions of the US Treasury market. Interest rates and the government bond market are one and the same.

From that point of view, knowing that the government will do everything they can to continue to prop up the bond market, ongoing QE cannot break the bond market. That is positive for the  equities markets.

Now here it gets interesting. Jim Sinclair links this relationship to gold, with the following insight:

Every problem we have from national to private is a balance sheet problem. As QE is the only tool to feign solvency, Gold is the only tool to accomplish solvency. Convertibility of fiat paper to gold will not re-occur, but currencies will cease their death rattle as national balance sheets are in fact balanced.

Gold price expectations: short and long term

The outlook for gold is positive, in Mr. Sinclair his view. He wrote that by March 27th (his birthday) the decline in gold will be history, underlining the fact that the ongoing decline and consolidation is only meant to shake off gold holders and comparing it with the previous bull market.

The gold price decline is similar to the series of declines just before gold took off in the 70s from $400 to $887.50. Those declines then were for the purpose of the last great shake of the gold apple tree prior to the move that gained the most distance over the least amount of time.

This may be the last time before gold trades in excess of $3500 that you need bite the bullet of emotional restraint.

A higher gold price would turn the shares higher as well, as they are trading at historic discounts to bullion.

David Morgan confirms the positive outlook

In his latest update to premium subscribers, David Morgan mentioned Jim Sinclair's outlook and confirmed it. "I agree with Jim. Of all the analysts & newsletter writers who tried to lead the way through the previous bull market, Jim Sinclair was THE one that got the gold market at the top. He has been very good with his timings. Take it from a guy who lead the last bull market and has a lot to do with the current one. I think he is right. I don't think we have much longer before we go higher."

Mr Morgan gave his subscribers a similar message of faith. He believes the correction is over, although we could see one last test which should not be drastic.

What the major breakout in the platinum-to-gold ratio signifies

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 09:19 AM PST

Platinum is breaking out compared to gold as South Africa, which supplies three quarters of world production, continues to struggle with labor issues and possible nationalization.

Gold prices: it’s all relative

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:59 AM PST

Goldmoney

India banks may be allowed to hedge risks on bulk Gold purchase

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:51 AM PST

The RBI panel is of the opinion that buyback of coins might help recycle the domestically available gold which is estimated at 18,000-20,000 tonnes

Next Generation Solar Panels- Power Via Silver Nano-Antennas

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:34 AM PST

Researchers in Finland have reportedly developed a next-generation solar panel utilizing silver nano particle antennas to trap incoming solar light.  The silver nano-antennas reportedly drastically increase photovoltaic cell efficiency (the percentage of incoming solar light converted into electrical energy- approximately only 20% in current solar panels), and new fabrication techniques allow printing the silver nano-antenna [...]

ECB may not renew Central Bank Gold Agreement

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:23 AM PST

Some analysts have suggested that letting any agreement lapse would send an unwelcome signal to the wider market that more bullion sales from Europe's gold-heavy central banks may be on the way.

The truth on gold stocks vs. gold

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:05 AM PST

The gold and silver stocks as a group have certainly been a disaster over the past two years. In studying the history of this sector (both the stocks and the metals) I've learned two things that I will share with you today.

“The hike in customs duty did not stop gold imports into India, but only changed the route.”

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 08:01 AM PST

250 tonnes of gold smuggled into India in 2012

Claudio Grass: Debt Is The Biggest Issue

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:53 AM PST

This article represents an interview of Claudio Grass (managing director at Global Gold Switzerland) conducted by Stefan Kremeth Incrementum Advisors AG.

Please explain why you decided to switchfrom a management position at Logitech to start a new career in the precious metals storage business.

claudio grass global gold gold silver general The process started long before I actually entered this business. To be precise it started back in 2004 when I read the book "Gold Wars" by Ferdinand Lips. Even before that I was very much interested in history but I had no clue about monetary history. After reading Ferdinand's book I got in touch with him and you can say that he became my mentor in the world of Austrian Economics. He pointed me to the direction of Wilhelm Röpke, Friedrich August von Hayek, Ludwig von Mises and many more. I started reading everything related to the Austrian School I could get my hands on. The more I read the more I realized that our world is in a period of transition. I am convinced especially the financial system is facing major changes. That's why I started purchasing physical gold and silver and also invested my money in mining stocks back in 2004. Since then my goal was to work in the physical precious metals business with the aim to offer a solution which focuses on all aspects that I consider key when it comes to purchasing and storing gold and silver safely.

How do you see the current global economic environment?

We are living in an environment of increasingly radical government and central bank intervention. This leads to distorted market signals and makes short-term predictions extremely unpredictable. However, what can be said is that governments can't create trillions of new currency units without consequences. Therefore I believe it is important to focus on the big picture and not get lost in the details. Debt is the biggest issue! The leading nations of the world such as the US, UK, European Union and Japan are facing the highest level of public debt in times of peace. In addition to these high levels of debt there are unfunded liabilities which are also exploding, the aging population and increasing unemployment. Our financial system is simply not sustainable. In such an insecure economic situation I am convinced that the preservation of ones wealth is key or as Mark Twain said "I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money". To sum it up, governments will likely further increase their interventions and might increase their measures of financial repression as described in our recent Global Gold Outlook Report.

What makes Investors use your services? 

In short it is the safety, which Global Gold offers it clients. Global Gold was founded to offer its clients a rock solid solution, which is completely independent of the current monetary and financial system. We offer a solution that works and exceeds client's expectations even – and particularly – during a severe financial crisis. Our trading and services are facilitated "outside" the banking system. There is no dependence on functioning stock markets or banks. A financial crisis will not stop the program from operating. Furthermore wedo not have any cash settlement clauses or other provisions that would restrict the prompt delivery or sale of the precious metals.Since we store the coins and bars one-to-one according tothe customer'swishthere is no form of counterparty risk. Another important aspect is the jurisdiction we operatein. Switzerland is known for its stability, safety, solid rule of law and high service quality. In view ofcurrent global economic and political realities, we are convinced that Switzerland is the jurisdiction that most properly guards the interest of our clients and respects their property rights.

What do you see as the single most important risk investors face over the years to come and what is your recommendation to investors and/orinvestment managers when it comes to protection against any such risk?

I see several risk factors we are going to face in the future. In my view, the next few years will be dominated especially in the western world by a declining real economy, higher unemployment rates and as already mentioned by financial repression such as higher taxation and government restrictions when it comes to investment possibilities. Interest rates, which are kept artificially low, in combination with a moderate inflation rate, are leading to low or even negative real return on investments. That's really destroying the existing wealth through the back door, reducing the purchasing power of paper money. The biggest part of all the new currency units has been used to bail out the bankrupt banking system and governments have redistributed their part to finance certain pressure groups favored by the governments. "The driving forces of economic health, are savings and investment, not consumption and debt. According to the Austrian School of Economics, every act of consumption has to be preceded by production"- Debt is nothing but consumption brought forward, which will consequently not take place in the future. There does not seem to be any painless therapy for these problems. That's why I believe that physical gold is an effective antidote, because it can't be printed or destroyed by any central bank policies.

Precious metals had a somewhat disappointing year in 2012. Do you think the time of precious metals investments is over?

I would not really call last year disappointing. Cash and nominal assets are currently yielding close to 0% on the other hand gold closed the year around 7%. I don't think that precious metals are over as an investment, because in my view we are far from a bubble. In our report we have an interesting slide comparing the current bull market to the previous far. It speaks for itself!

The bull market is intact and the fundamentals are very strong. This in combination with our outlook on the economy makes us bullish for gold. We would use the dips in the gold price to accumulate physical long term gold positions.

How would you structure a portfolio in 2013?

The needs of each client are unique and hence there isn't a one-size fits all recipe. I personally believe that it can make sense to put a minimum of 25% to 35% of ones investable wealth into precious metals.


Read more about Global Gold Switzerland or Incrementum Advisors AG.

Peru reports 2012 production increases in copper and silver, gold output drops

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:39 AM PST

Peru's Ministry of Mines says the county's copper production was up 5.12%, lead up 8.02%, zinc up 1.96% and a 1.76% increase in silver in 2012.

Gold in euros surges 1.8%; Soros says EU may collapse like USSR

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:19 AM PST

While gold fell in dollar terms yesterday, it surged 1.8% in euro terms from €1,235/oz, soon after the ECB interest rate decision, to €1,258/oz soon after. Some of the gains were quickly given up as determined selling was again seen.

Turkey sees no immediate end to Iran Gold flow

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:13 AM PST

Iranians buy gold in Turkey, and couriers carry bullion worth millions of dollars in hand luggage to Dubai, where it can be sold for foreign currency or shipped to Iran.

Gold stagnates ahead of Chinese New Year

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 07:13 AM PST

Gold prices are trading just below unchanged levels in the early going Friday. The gold and silver markets showed little reaction to some fresh, upbeat Chinese economic data released Friday.

Gold and euro reacted to Draghi's verbal intervention

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 06:55 AM PST

On Feb. 7, the ECB kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.75% but commented that the recent Euro/Dollar appreciation could derail the economic recovery in Europe. The gold price fell in reaction to the rising U.S. dollar

Gold and silver margins reduced

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 06:31 AM PST

CME group have announced that the margin level required to trade (paper) gold and silver has been reduced. CME, the biggest operator of U.S. futures exchanges, said late Thursday it lowered initial...

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Jim Sinclair: PM Band of Brothers Must Fight a Battle Royal for Freedom Against Beasts of Paper

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 06:15 AM PST

Jim Sinclair has issued a call for precious metals investors to stand together as a Band of Brothers and fight a battle royal here and now against the beasts of paper in a war being for both both gold's and our freedom. Sinclair urges precious metals investors to take an oath of allegiance to the [...]

Over the course of the next five years the UK has about £330bn (20% of UK GDP) in debt it has to repay – here’s why the BoE doubles its balance sheet

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 06:00 AM PST

Shortly we'll present one simple chart that shows what an utter mess the level of UK debt has become. What many don't seem to realise or 'get' is that when the UK borrows money it does so paying back...

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Doc's Deal of the Day: 10 oz Year of the Snake Bars As Low As .69 Over Spot!!

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 05:59 AM PST

2013 Year of the Snake 10 OZ .999 Silver Bar     As Low As $.69 Over Spot!! 1 Day Sale Starts at 9am EST Friday! CLICK HERE OR CALL 614-300-1094 TO ORDER!! ANY SILVER PURCHASE OF 100 OUNCES OR MORE WILL EARN YOU 100 SD OUNCES (POINTS) TO REDEEM TOWARDS ITEMS FROM THE SD [...]

Gold In Euros Surges 1.8% After Draghi Warns; Soros Says EU May Collapse Like USSR

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 05:46 AM PST

*Editor (Doc) note: George Soros nearly personally broke the pound.  If he warns that the EU may collapse like the USSR, he is most assuredly long the EU and expecting the USD to collapse like the USSR The EU may suffer the fate of the USSR and "collapse" according to billionaire investor George Soros.  Soros [...]

Antal Fekete: Chinas risk-free bonanza in covered call selling in silver

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 05:36 AM PST

GATA

The most important news you'll read today…

Posted: 08 Feb 2013 05:30 AM PST

Dividends paid in gold? Mike King February 08, 2013 Gold miner Endeavour Mining Corp's (ASX: EVR) chief executive Neil Woodyer has suggested the company could pay dividends in physical gold. It's all part of a radical plan to turnaround under-performing … Continue reading

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