Gold World News Flash |
- The Gold Price Gained Only Fifty Cents Closing at $1,648.70 Silver Gained 10.9 Cents
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Plus Ca Change…
- The Number One Reason to Own Gold – YouTube
- Four-Letter “G” Word Discussed on TV
- The Silver Chart Predicting $200 Silver by 2018: Silver’s Parabolic Up-trend Channel Suggests Massive Silver Move is Imminent
- Been Busy? No Problem, Here are Snippets of 10 Articles on Gold & Silver You Might Have Missed.
- Gold Reverses at Channel Support
- Gold Bears Out Of Time & About To Pay The Ultimate Price
- Reader Alert: 1/2 Ounce Perth Mint Silver Lunar Dragon's $1.99 Premium Per Coin at APMEX!
- Richard Russell: History About To Repeat - Hang On To Gold
- Davos 2013 – (BBC) Is Democracy Winning? – YouTube
- Catalyst Watch, Part 1: CyberWar
- The (Two) GOP #SOTU Responses
- #SOTU - The Summary: Minimum Wage, Maximum Genomes, Macs, And Moar Cyber-Security
- MY FIRST PAYCHECK
- Henry Kissinger ~ Davos 2013 – The State of the World: A Strategic Assessment – Henry A Kissinger – YouTube
- What's Up With These Trust Funds?
- Got Gold Report Posted for Subscribers
- The Case for Silver Outpacing Gold
- Gold Bears Out Of Time & About To Pay The Ultimate Price
- Physical Silver Is The Investment Of The Decade
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Plus Ca Change...
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Higher
- Gold Stocks Close To a Bottom
- Gold & Silver: Hidden Secrets Of Money (Trailer) – YouTube
- Bain Capital: The World's Awash In Money – What Does That Imply & How Should You Invest ?
- Are Gold and Silver Stocks Ready For A Rally Yet?
- “Our Founders Had No Conception…”
- Chris Ecclestone: Gold Will Fall, Time to Switch to Specialty Metals?
- Jordan Roy-Byrne’s gold price and mining stocks outlook – YouTube
- Gold/Silver Ratio: What Next for Metals Prices?
- Your Investments: It's Time to Choose Between Playing Offense or Playing Defense
- HAPPY VALENTINES DAY
- Gold, Silver Fail to Recover Losses Despite Talk of Currency Wars and Nuclear Testing
- Inflation is a function of diminishing demand for currency, Turk reminds
- One Hundred Years of Intrusions
| The Gold Price Gained Only Fifty Cents Closing at $1,648.70 Silver Gained 10.9 Cents Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:38 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1,648.70 Change : 0.50 or 0.03% Silver Price Close Today : 31.00 Change : 0.11 or 0.35% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.177 Change : -0.171 or -0.32% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0188 Change : 0.0001 or 0.32% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,716.10 Change : 21.10 or 1.24% Palladium Price Close Today : 771.00 Change : 12.80 or 1.69% S&P 500 : 1,519.43 Change : 2.42 or 0.16% Dow In GOLD$ : $175.77 Change : $7.50 or 4.46% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.50 Change : 0.36 or 4.46% Dow in SILVER oz : 452.16 Change : -0.06 or -0.01% Dow Industrial : 14,018.70 Change : 47.46 or 0.34% US Dollar Index : 80.07 Change : -0.13 or -0.17% The silver and GOLD PRICE are simply dead in the water. Silver today gained 10.9 cents to 3100.4c. Gold gained -- got your magnifying glass ready? -- fifty cents, closing at $1,648.70. Range for gold was $1,639.27 - $1,651.87, and for silver 3057.9c - 3112c. The GOLD PRICE five day chart was flat to the lows yesterday, with that spike to a lower low at $1,329.27. If it climbs above $1,652 tomorrow & closes up there, that will mark a bottom for a while. However, today's gold close didn't help the longer term chart much. Gold remains below the uptrend from the lows last June, & below ALL it's moving averages. That I am so negative & indifferent that is probably a sure sign we saw a major low today, but that hasn't shown up on the chart yet. The snare in all human minds is that we see a trend & project it out unchanged to infinity. Of course, that ignores the one known rule of this universe: everything changes. The SILVER PRICE gained 10.9 cents to close right at the morale-boosting 3100 cent level. Much like gold's chart, silver made a spike bottom to 3057.9 cents, a new low for the move, and then rose strongly off that spike. Needs to close above 3110c tomorrow to confirm that as a bottom of some sort. The SILVER PRICE longer term chart -- I'm looking at 4 months -- offers hope. Today's trading pierced the rising trendline from the June low and punched through the 200 DMA (30.67), but it wouldn't stay there & finished the day higher. And right at the 300 DMA (3111c). And back inside that even-sided triangle I've been watching. What speaketh all that hope? Simple: silver had the chance to break down, but was strong enough to snap back. Silver & gold are simply treading water while stocks blow off. Likelihood of further downside is small, but gold must clear $1,705 & silver 3250c before any rally can be counted authentic. Meantime, we wait, with calm assurance we will have the last laugh. Saw today in Peter Grandich's letter, this quotation from a London metals trader: "I'm not that worried about the sell-off today, it's just the logical thing. I was surprised they waited so long [to take it down], because many opportunities to push it to that level existed before...and it finally happened, and that's good for the market. This is actually a blessing. We are still not at the lows of January at $1625...but at the moment this is probably as far as it's going to go [$1642]. There's good support here." He further added that, "This is actually the typical reaction of the Chinese New Year, because the shorts, they know there will be no physical demand for a couple of days, there won't be support there, and so they are smart. This is smart money just pushing it to the extremes. For me this is an opportunity to get something cheap in for the mid-term. But you can't fight the trend at the moment in terms of what's in the air for the Fed-speak, etc., but the long-term money stays and sits." There are lies, then there are diplomatic lies, that is, the lies of lying diplomats. The G7 finance froufrous (Group of Seven includes US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, & Japan) meeting before the G20 meeting in Moscow, probably to get their story straight, lied through their teeth today in a statement in which they pledged to let foreign exchange markets determine their currencies' exchange rates. They also alibied for Japan's studied devaluation. I don't any more believe this than I believe Bernard O'Bama is a world-class intellectual and tatting expert. Statement backed & filled by saying something about it devaluing was only OK for the Japanese to beat deflation, but not to boost their economy. Now, let's see. Exactly how do we tell the first sort from the second, or any of them from outright competitive currency devaluation, or, dare I say it, "Currency war"? I can't tell it, any more than I can tell a rattlesnake from a snake. In the outcome the Yen rose 0.92% to 106.95 & the Euro rose to $1.3451 while the US dollar index fell to 80.066 from 80.199 this time yesterday. Whoops. That fall plunged from today's high of 80.508. Closes left the euro slightly above its 20 DMA, but still way below its broken uptrend line. Not at all clear to me whether the Euro has topped yet or not, but present facts favor that interpretation. Meanwhile, the Euro & US NGM are standing aside while the Japanese pull the plug on the yen. Makes you wonder what kind of deal they've made, or if they're at war with each other. This much we know: ALL CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES ARE MANIPULATED BY CENTRAL BANKS IN CONCERT. "Markets determining rates indeed!" he snorted. Stocks managed to climb firmly & convincingly above 14,000 today. Dow gained 47.46 (0.34%) to 14,018.70, but the S&P500 gained only 2.42 (0.16%) to 1,519.43. Nasdaq & other indices were not convinced, & fell. Today's close all but guarantees the Dow will at least reach its 2007 high (14,154.63 on 9 October 07) in this rally. I will tell y'all, but many will not hear or believe, that stocks remain in a BEAR market (primary downtrend) and that this rally will soon collapse in a most painful way, taking the money of the unwary down with it. Flee while ye yet may. Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver agree that stocks are going higher. Both rose today about their congestion areas. On that black day 12 February 1873 President Grant signed into law the Crime of '73, which de facto (but not de jure) demonetized silver in the US by not providing for the minting of silver dollars. Conspiracy theorists report that a lobbyist acting for English banks accomplished all this for the bargain price of $500,000. Politicians came cheaper in those days. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't. |
| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Plus Ca Change… Posted: 13 Feb 2013 01:30 AM PST from Jesse's Café Américain:
Barry Ritholtz As a reminder, this is a stock option expiration week. Obama's State of the Union message this evening. Regards to the staffers watching their bosses at Bullfeathers. There was a hit on the metals but they clawed their way back. I include the VIX here just to show the complacency and the likely cause for the divergence between stocks and the metals. Its a 'risk on' thing and its has been going on since the Republicans blinked on the fiscal cliff. |
| The Number One Reason to Own Gold – YouTube Posted: 12 Feb 2013 11:11 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Four-Letter “G” Word Discussed on TV Posted: 12 Feb 2013 11:03 PM PST
The title of the video clip under review and subject of their discussion is: "Would returning to the gold standard end currency wars?" Obviously, countries which use gold as money would have to accept the fact that gold cannot be devalued. This would be a huge improvement over today. Michael Woolfolk from Bank of New York Mellon takes the anti-gold position, and Komal Sri-Kumar from Sri-Kumar Global Strategies is pro-gold. Mr. Woolfolk seems the perfect representative of the establishment. He works for a major bank and just wants to continue the status quo, though as most do, he has some quibbles with it. While he admits that there is no long-term benefit to "currency wars", he asserts that there is a short-term benefit. Mr. Sri-Kumar, answers Mr. Woolfolk as he deserves. Nothing good comes from robbing savers and productive enterprise via devaluation, in the short term or in the long term. Unfortunately, he is not a great representative of the gold standard, as we shall see below. Mahatma Ghandi once said, "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." In this Bloomberg video clip, we see that we are currently somewhere between laughing and fighting. Gold can no longer be ignored. Mr. Woolfolk seems barely able to conceal his contempt at times. In rebutting Mr. Sri-Kumar, he interrupts "but you can't do that [adopt gold]… right?" His face flickers to a smirk, which he quickly suppresses. "I mean the value of gold would have to be astronomically high to be able to back the money supply." He adds, "Wouldn't it?" He takes on a tone of exaggerated patience. Mr. Woolfolk says we don't have enough gold. Whenever I hear that, I always feel an urge to ask three questions. First, How much gold do you think we have? Second, how much do you think we would need to have? And finally, how did you arrive at these numbers? There is little point in spending further electrons dwelling on Mr. Woolfolk. Mr. Sri-Kumar made a point that I think is under-appreciated: central banks create uncertainty. I would add that economic calculation as such is impossible under paper. A construction worker cannot use a rubber band to measure the length of a beam; he must use a steel tape. An accountant cannot use a rubber dollar to measure the worth of an enterprise; he must use gold. Well, today, they do try to use dollars, but there is a systemic bias towards overstating profits and understating losses. Unfortunately, Mr. Sri-Kumar's main idea is wrong. He wants governments to fix the price of gold. He even claims he knows the magic number: $1675 per ounce. Mr. Sri-Kumar and everyone else should be reminded that price fixing never works (and the price is always fluctuating in a free market). Apart from this fatal problem with price fixing, government always gets the wrong price for two reasons. First, they don't have perfect information, and second there are special interest lobbyists. Imagine the debate in Washington about a fixed gold price. Debtors would want the price to be high, so they could liquidate their debts with as little gold as possible. Creditors would want the gold price set low, so they can get more gold out of their counterparties. The fighting between the special interest groups would be like the shoot-out at the OK Corral! Mr. Sri-Kumar proposes to return to the last throes of the terminal gold standard, the twisted husk known as the "Bretton Woods System". In this system, it was a criminal offense punishable by imprisonment for a US citizen to own gold. While Mr. Sri-Kumar did not endorse this particular feature, it is a necessary feature because otherwise unpredictable people could begin buying gold and force governments to either let the price rise or else drain their reserves of gold. In Bretton-Woods, the dollar was redeemable only by foreign central banks. Those banks were indeed redeeming, at an accelerating pace. By 1971, they were bringing enough dollars to the US to take home over 100 tons per day. The US government was within a few months or running out of gold at that rate. President Nixon made his fateful decision to "temporarily" suspend redeemability as a response to this monetary crisis. The failure of Bretton-Woods was inevitable. Economists Jacques Rueff and Robert Triffin predicted it many years before it happened. I covered some of the problems of the pre-1913 gold standard, but it was superior in every way to Bretton Woods. It certainly did not self-destruct. It's good that Mr. Sri-Kumar pointed out that there cannot be debasement and thus endemically rising prices under gold. But there is much more to be said, if we are to avoid the fate of Rome. The next time Bloomberg needs someone to talk about the gold standard, let's hope they pick someone who understands it fully. For those who are interested, I published a video yesterday discussing an important consequence of irredeemable dollar: the system is collapsing under the weight of the rising debt. |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 11:00 PM PST from Silver Doctors:
Silver is now approaching it's vertical uptrend line near $32. Should the same percentage gain be repeated as the prior two occurrences, silver would need to rise to over $200/oz by 2016-2018. |
| Been Busy? No Problem, Here are Snippets of 10 Articles on Gold & Silver You Might Have Missed. Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:50 PM PST "Follow the [COLOR=#0000ff][U]munKNEE"[/U][/COLOR] via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report [B][B]Been busy? Not to worry. Here are introductory paragraphs and links to 10 of the "best of the best" [/B]articles on gold and silver that you might have missed reading. Each article has been edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure you a fast and easy read. Read just one or read them all. Enjoy![/B] By Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) and www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds). 1. Goldrunner: What We 'Know' & 'Don't Know' About Where Gold, Silver and PM Stocks Are Going One never knows exactly where Precious Metals are going so I always try to keep in mind a list of items that are probable based on the facts that are evident.* I call this "what we know" and "what we don't know"* so let's take a look what we "know" and "don't know" at this point in time. Word... |
| Gold Reverses at Channel Support Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:40 PM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com February 12, 2013 03:11 PM Daily Bars Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0 Commodity Analysis: “Gold’s rebound from the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 1522 and former resistance (June-August 2012 highs) is constructive but the near term picture is defined by roughly 1650 and 1700. A break of that zone will present the next directional opportunity.” The rebound from near term channel support highlights why it’s important to wait for a break of the January low before turning bearish. Commodity Trading Strategy: Flat LEVELS: 1600 1626 1639 1660 1685 1700... |
| Gold Bears Out Of Time & About To Pay The Ultimate Price Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:30 PM PST from KingWorldNews:
"It isn't much of a secret that gold mining shares have suffered greatly in the past 18 months. In fact, since the summer of 2011 the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has plummeted nearly 40%. That has caused many precious metal investors to give up hope on mining shares altogether; and to now anticipate a tremendous plunge in gold prices. Nevertheless, I believe gold and gold mining shares offer investors a great value at this juncture, and this is what I will explain in the following piece. " |
| Reader Alert: 1/2 Ounce Perth Mint Silver Lunar Dragon's $1.99 Premium Per Coin at APMEX! Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:15 PM PST
by SGT, One really neat thing about this site is that it gives me the ability to reach my friends when a great opportunity arises. (You're the friend) And this is the opportunity. It's the rare day when one has the chance to buy a very beautiful, semi-numismatic Perth Mint issue, that comes prepackaged in a plastic case for protection, for a great price. But today is that day.
As of this writing (10:30 pm CST), they still have just over 3,000 ounces of them left. 6,389 of the half-ouncers remain, to be exact. BTW, SGTreport has no relationship with Apmex, but a great deal is a great deal, so get movin'. You'll find em right now by clicking HERE. |
| Richard Russell: History About To Repeat - Hang On To Gold Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:05 PM PST  With key global markets at or near breakout levels, and the "Metal of Kings" marking time before reasserting its dominance, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, writes about Americans still partying, gold, the Fed, and stocks in a note to subscribers: "The central banks of the world are on a mission to keep the world economy going. A great bull market started in 1980. It ended in 2007, a period of 27 years. As such, it was, in duration, the longest bull market in US history. A bear market started in October 2007."This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Davos 2013 – (BBC) Is Democracy Winning? – YouTube Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:00 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Catalyst Watch, Part 1: CyberWar Posted: 12 Feb 2013 09:06 PM PST When the technology of warfare changes, so does everything else. State-of-the-art roads and siege engines gave the Roman Empire control of the western world two millennia ago. The long bow won some notable battles for England in the Hundred-Year War. Machine guns opened pretty much the whole world to European imperialists in the 1800s. And so it has gone, through tanks, jet fighters, and nuclear weapons. But where previous breakthroughs made it easier to destroy things and kill people, the newest super-weapons don't blow things up, at least not directly. They disrupt information systems, without warning and frequently without betraying the source of the attack. Drawing on recent news accounts along with America the Vulnerable, a terrifying book written by former National Security Agency official Joel Brenner, here's the cyberwar story in a nutshell: Over the past couple of decades, humanity has grafted its most important systems onto the backbone of the Internet, which was originally designed for scientists to share data easily – that is, with convenience taking precedence over security. So our banking, military, energy and corporate data networks now make critical information available to lots of people using lots of sign-in credentials from lots of different places. As a result, these systems are easy pickings for thieves, vandals, and enemies. Meanwhile, teenage hackers have been replaced as top predators in this ecosystem by sophisticated organized crime groups and even more sophisticated branches of foreign military/intelligence services. Since it's easier to penetrate critical systems than it is to prevent or detect penetration, it's safe to assume that major military networks, multinational corporations, and top-tier banks have been – and are being – hacked. This matters because once a hacker is inside a system they can do pretty much anything an authorized user can do, from withdrawing money, to stealing critical data, to crashing the whole system. It is now possible for hackers to: remotely change the operating parameters of power generators to make them blow up, in the process taking down regional power grids; move so much money out of bank/brokerage customer accounts that the institutions fail; and crash the clearing mechanism of a country's banking system. And that's just the obvious stuff. Attacks that we can't currently conceive of are no doubt being contemplated and/or planned by governments and mafias around the world. All of which explains why cyber-conflict has become front page news. Here's a more-or-less random sampling of recent headlines: The world's first cyberwar has started Your password isn't enough to keep your info secure on the internet Norway preparing for cyber war Cyber war: mutually assured disruption Scott Knight: preparing for cyber-war Obama declares global cyberwar US in growing cyber war with China? Cybersecurity: how preemptive cyberwar is entering the nation's arsenal Why is cyberwar a topic for a site like DollarCollapse? Because assuming – as we should – that the global financial system is now so complex, leveraged, interdependent and fragile that a disruption in one part can easily spread to the rest, the only remaining question is which catalyst will be first to set off the avalanche. A major cyber-attack is a pretty good candidate. How likely is such an event? Well, based on what the world's governments and corporations are willing to admit (almost certainly the least serious tip of the iceberg), big things are already happening, and the threat of massive retaliation and/or preemptive strike looks both real and imminent. The Japan/China conflict in the China Sea, for instance, could easily pull the US into a cyber-battle, if not war. Because this is uncharted territory, there's no way to predict the impact on the financial markets. Meanwhile, the cyber-powers now being granted to governments to fight the next war are eviscerating Constitutional protections of personal privacy and liberty. So the ability to fight a cyberwar is also the ability to create a high-tech police state. Seen this way, cyberwar is yet another reason to avoid keeping a lot of capital tied up in financial assets. If the banks, brokers and insurance companies holding those assets are hacked and maybe disrupted, what happens to your stocks and bonds? Again, this is uncharted territory, which adds to the appeal of real assets held out of the mainstream financial system. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that in a cyberwar your gold coins and farmland will still be there when the virtual dust clears. |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 08:31 PM PST Well, this is awkward, but in our always fair and balanced way, we present the two sides of the GOP's response to Obama's SOTU - the 'official' Marco Rubio response and Rand Paul's Tea Party Express response, with speech excerpts and streams...
Marco Rubio:
Rubio's not so greatest moment:
A few excerpts from Rubio's speech:
and 5 minutes later... Rand Paul (via Tea Party Express - no Embed!): click image for link...
Below are a few excerpts anticipated from Sen. Rand Paul's (R-Ky.) Tea Party response to the State of the Union Address.
|
| #SOTU - The Summary: Minimum Wage, Maximum Genomes, Macs, And Moar Cyber-Security Posted: 12 Feb 2013 08:15 PM PST 5% fewer words, slightly shorter than last year but just as hope-full. From a hike (and inflation-indexed) in the minimum wage to a 140x multiplier of genome sciences investment (now that is Keynesian awesomeness); from extending homeownership (and refinancing plans) even more to energy independence; from Apple, Ford, and CAT's US Manufacturing to Bridge-Building and infrastructure spending; and from Trans-Pacific and -Atlantic Trade to cyber-security; it's all gonna be great - because as President Obama reminded us at the start... "Our housing market is healing, our stock market is rebounding," and this won't add a dime to the deficit... oh and that Student loan bubble - no worries, there's a college scorecard so now you know where you can get the biggest bang for your credit-based buck. Summing it all up:
Fed heads chimed in early:
That won't help fund all of this wonderfulness... But we started on an awkward note with Reince Priebus:
and David Axelrod...
Oh well... The word cloud: Jobs - Years - America (and... people education like)
Full Speech: Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, fellow citizens: Fifty-one years ago, John F. Kennedy declared to this Chamber that "the Constitution makes us not rivals for power but partners for progress…It is my task," he said, "to report the State of the Union – to improve it is the task of us all." Tonight, thanks to the grit and determination of the American people, there is much progress to report. After a decade of grinding war, our brave men and women in uniform are coming home. After years of grueling recession, our businesses have created over six million new jobs. We buy more American cars than we have in five years, and less foreign oil than we have in twenty. Our housing market is healing, our stock market is rebounding, and consumers, patients, and homeowners enjoy stronger protections than ever before. Together, we have cleared away the rubble of crisis, and can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger. But we gather here knowing that there are millions of Americans whose hard work and dedication have not yet been rewarded. Our economy is adding jobs – but too many people still can't find full-time employment. Corporate profits have rocketed to all-time highs – but for more than a decade, wages and incomes have barely budged. It is our generation's task, then, to reignite the true engine of America's economic growth – a rising, thriving middle class. It is our unfinished task to restore the basic bargain that built this country – the idea that if you work hard and meet your responsibilities, you can get ahead, no matter where you come from, what you look like, or who you love. It is our unfinished task to make sure that this government works on behalf of the many, and not just the few; that it encourages free enterprise, rewards individual initiative, and opens the doors of opportunity to every child across this great nation. The American people don't expect government to solve every problem. They don't expect those of us in this chamber to agree on every issue. But they do expect us to put the nation's interests before party. They do expect us to forge reasonable compromise where we can. For they know that America moves forward only when we do so together; and that the responsibility of improving this union remains the task of us all. Our work must begin by making some basic decisions about our budget – decisions that will have a huge impact on the strength of our recovery. Over the last few years, both parties have worked together to reduce the deficit by more than $2.5 trillion – mostly through spending cuts, but also by raising tax rates on the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans. As a result, we are more than halfway towards the goal of $4 trillion in deficit reduction that economists say we need to stabilize our finances. Now we need to finish the job. And the question is, how? In 2011, Congress passed a law saying that if both parties couldn't agree on a plan to reach our deficit goal, about a trillion dollars' worth of budget cuts would automatically go into effect this year. These sudden, harsh, arbitrary cuts would jeopardize our military readiness. They'd devastate priorities like education, energy, and medical research. They would certainly slow our recovery, and cost us hundreds of thousands of jobs. That's why Democrats, Republicans, business leaders, and economists have already said that these cuts, known here in Washington as "the sequester," are a really bad idea. Now, some in this Congress have proposed preventing only the defense cuts by making even bigger cuts to things like education and job training; Medicare and Social Security benefits. That idea is even worse. Yes, the biggest driver of our long-term debt is the rising cost of health care for an aging population. And those of us who care deeply about programs like Medicare must embrace the need for modest reforms – otherwise, our retirement programs will crowd out the investments we need for our children, and jeopardize the promise of a secure retirement for future generations. But we can't ask senior citizens and working families to shoulder the entire burden of deficit reduction while asking nothing more from the wealthiest and most powerful. We won't grow the middle class simply by shifting the cost of health care or college onto families that are already struggling, or by forcing communities to lay off more teachers, cops, and firefighters. Most Americans – Democrats, Republicans, and Independents – understand that we can't just cut our way to prosperity. They know that broad-based economic growth requires a balanced approach to deficit reduction, with spending cuts and revenue, and with everybody doing their fair share. And that's the approach I offer tonight. On Medicare, I'm prepared to enact reforms that will achieve the same amount of health care savings by the beginning of the next decade as the reforms proposed by the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles commission. Already, the Affordable Care Act is helping to slow the growth of health care costs. The reforms I'm proposing go even further. We'll reduce taxpayer subsidies to prescription drug companies and ask more from the wealthiest seniors. We'll bring down costs by changing the way our government pays for Medicare, because our medical bills shouldn't be based on the number of tests ordered or days spent in the hospital – they should be based on the quality of care that our seniors receive. And I am open to additional reforms from both parties, so long as they don't violate the guarantee of a secure retirement. Our government shouldn't make promises we cannot keep – but we must keep the promises we've already made. To hit the rest of our deficit reduction target, we should do what leaders in both parties have already suggested, and save hundreds of billions of dollars by getting rid of tax loopholes and deductions for the well-off and well-connected. After all, why would we choose to make deeper cuts to education and Medicare just to protect special interest tax breaks? How is that fair? How does that promote growth? Now is our best chance for bipartisan, comprehensive tax reform that encourages job creation and helps bring down the deficit. The American people deserve a tax code that helps small businesses spend less time filling out complicated forms, and more time expanding and hiring; a tax code that ensures billionaires with high-powered accountants can't pay a lower rate than their hard-working secretaries; a tax code that lowers incentives to move jobs overseas, and lowers tax rates for businesses and manufacturers that create jobs right here in America. That's what tax reform can deliver. That's what we can do together. I realize that tax reform and entitlement reform won't be easy. The politics will be hard for both sides. None of us will get 100 percent of what we want. But the alternative will cost us jobs, hurt our economy, and visit hardship on millions of hardworking Americans. So let's set party interests aside, and work to pass a budget that replaces reckless cuts with smart savings and wise investments in our future. And let's do it without the brinksmanship that stresses consumers and scares off investors. The greatest nation on Earth cannot keep conducting its business by drifting from one manufactured crisis to the next. Let's agree, right here, right now, to keep the people's government open, pay our bills on time, and always uphold the full faith and credit of the United States of America. The American people have worked too hard, for too long, rebuilding from one crisis to see their elected officials cause another. Now, most of us agree that a plan to reduce the deficit must be part of our agenda. But let's be clear: deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan. A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs – that must be the North Star that guides our efforts. Every day, we should ask ourselves three questions as a nation: How do we attract more jobs to our shores? How do we equip our people with the skills needed to do those jobs? And how do we make sure that hard work leads to a decent living? A year and a half ago, I put forward an American Jobs Act that independent economists said would create more than one million new jobs. I thank the last Congress for passing some of that agenda, and I urge this Congress to pass the rest. Tonight, I'll lay out additional proposals that are fully paid for and fully consistent with the budget framework both parties agreed to just 18 months ago. Let me repeat – nothing I'm proposing tonight should increase our deficit by a single dime. It's not a bigger government we need, but a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth. Our first priority is making America a magnet for new jobs and manufacturing. After shedding jobs for more than 10 years, our manufacturers have added about 500,000 jobs over the past three. Caterpillar is bringing jobs back from Japan. Ford is bringing jobs back from Mexico. After locating plants in other countries like China, Intel is opening its most advanced plant right here at home. And this year, Apple will start making Macs in America again. There are things we can do, right now, to accelerate this trend. Last year, we created our first manufacturing innovation institute in Youngstown, Ohio. A once-shuttered warehouse is now a state-of-the art lab where new workers are mastering the 3D printing that has the potential to revolutionize the way we make almost everything. There's no reason this can't happen in other towns. So tonight, I'm announcing the launch of three more of these manufacturing hubs, where businesses will partner with the Departments of Defense and Energy to turn regions left behind by globalization into global centers of high-tech jobs. And I ask this Congress to help create a network of fifteen of these hubs and guarantee that the next revolution in manufacturing is Made in America. If we want to make the best products, we also have to invest in the best ideas. Every dollar we invested to map the human genome returned $140 to our economy. Today, our scientists are mapping the human brain to unlock the answers to Alzheimer's; developing drugs to regenerate damaged organs; devising new material to make batteries ten times more powerful. Now is not the time to gut these job-creating investments in science and innovation. Now is the time to reach a level of research and development not seen since the height of the Space Race. And today, no area holds more promise than our investments in American energy. After years of talking about it, we are finally poised to control our own energy future. We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas, and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar – with tens of thousands of good, American jobs to show for it. We produce more natural gas than ever before – and nearly everyone's energy bill is lower because of it. And over the last four years, our emissions of the dangerous carbon pollution that threatens our planet have actually fallen. But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it's true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods – all are now more frequent and intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it's too late. The good news is, we can make meaningful progress on this issue while driving strong economic growth. I urge this Congress to pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change, like the one John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on together a few years ago. But if Congress won't act soon to protect future generations, I will. I will direct my Cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy. Four years ago, other countries dominated the clean energy market and the jobs that came with it. We've begun to change that. Last year, wind energy added nearly half of all new power capacity in America. So let's generate even more. Solar energy gets cheaper by the year – so let's drive costs down even further. As long as countries like China keep going all-in on clean energy, so must we. In the meantime, the natural gas boom has led to cleaner power and greater energy independence. That's why my Administration will keep cutting red tape and speeding up new oil and gas permits. But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research and technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and water. Indeed, much of our new-found energy is drawn from lands and waters that we, the public, own together. So tonight, I propose we use some of our oil and gas revenues to fund an Energy Security Trust that will drive new research and technology to shift our cars and trucks off oil for good. If a non-partisan coalition of CEOs and retired generals and admirals can get behind this idea, then so can we. Let's take their advice and free our families and businesses from the painful spikes in gas prices we've put up with for far too long. I'm also issuing a new goal for America: let's cut in half the energy wasted by our homes and businesses over the next twenty years. The states with the best ideas to create jobs and lower energy bills by constructing more efficient buildings will receive federal support to help make it happen. America's energy sector is just one part of an aging infrastructure badly in need of repair. Ask any CEO where they'd rather locate and hire: a country with deteriorating roads and bridges, or one with high-speed rail and internet; high-tech schools and self-healing power grids. The CEO of Siemens America – a company that brought hundreds of new jobs to North Carolina – has said that if we upgrade our infrastructure, they'll bring even more jobs. And I know that you want these job-creating projects in your districts. I've seen you all at the ribbon-cuttings. Tonight, I propose a "Fix-It-First" program to put people to work as soon as possible on our most urgent repairs, like the nearly 70,000 structurally deficient bridges across the country. And to make sure taxpayers don't shoulder the whole burden, I'm also proposing a Partnership to Rebuild America that attracts private capital to upgrade what our businesses need most: modern ports to move our goods; modern pipelines to withstand a storm; modern schools worthy of our children. Let's prove that there is no better place to do business than the United States of America. And let's start right away. Part of our rebuilding effort must also involve our housing sector. Today, our housing market is finally healing from the collapse of 2007. Home prices are rising at the fastest pace in six years, home purchases are up nearly 50 percent, and construction is expanding again. But even with mortgage rates near a 50-year low, too many families with solid credit who want to buy a home are being rejected. Too many families who have never missed a payment and want to refinance are being told no. That's holding our entire economy back, and we need to fix it. Right now, there's a bill in this Congress that would give every responsible homeowner in America the chance to save $3,000 a year by refinancing at today's rates. Democrats and Republicans have supported it before. What are we waiting for? Take a vote, and send me that bill. Right now, overlapping regulations keep responsible young families from buying their first home. What's holding us back? Let's streamline the process, and help our economy grow. These initiatives in manufacturing, energy, infrastructure, and housing will help entrepreneurs and small business owners expand and create new jobs. But none of it will matter unless we also equip our citizens with the skills and training to fill those jobs. And that has to start at the earliest possible age. Study after study shows that the sooner a child begins learning, the better he or she does down the road. But today, fewer than 3 in 10 four year-olds are enrolled in a high-quality preschool program. Most middle-class parents can't afford a few hundred bucks a week for private preschool. And for poor kids who need help the most, this lack of access to preschool education can shadow them for the rest of their lives. Tonight, I propose working with states to make high-quality preschool available to every child in America. Every dollar we invest in high-quality early education can save more than seven dollars later on – by boosting graduation rates, reducing teen pregnancy, even reducing violent crime. In states that make it a priority to educate our youngest children, like Georgia or Oklahoma, studies show students grow up more likely to read and do math at grade level, graduate high school, hold a job, and form more stable families of their own. So let's do what works, and make sure none of our children start the race of life already behind. Let's give our kids that chance. Let's also make sure that a high school diploma puts our kids on a path to a good job. Right now, countries like Germany focus on graduating their high school students with the equivalent of a technical degree from one of our community colleges, so that they're ready for a job. At schools like P-Tech in Brooklyn, a collaboration between New York Public Schools, the City University of New York, and IBM, students will graduate with a high school diploma and an associate degree in computers or engineering. We need to give every American student opportunities like this. Four years ago, we started Race to the Top – a competition that convinced almost every state to develop smarter curricula and higher standards, for about 1 percent of what we spend on education each year. Tonight, I'm announcing a new challenge to redesign America's high schools so they better equip graduates for the demands of a high-tech economy. We'll reward schools that develop new partnerships with colleges and employers, and create classes that focus on science, technology, engineering, and math – the skills today's employers are looking for to fill jobs right now and in the future. Now, even with better high schools, most young people will need some higher education. It's a simple fact: the more education you have, the more likely you are to have a job and work your way into the middle class. But today, skyrocketing costs price way too many young people out of a higher education, or saddle them with unsustainable debt. Through tax credits, grants, and better loans, we have made college more affordable for millions of students and families over the last few years. But taxpayers cannot continue to subsidize the soaring cost of higher education. Colleges must do their part to keep costs down, and it's our job to make sure they do. Tonight, I ask Congress to change the Higher Education Act, so that affordability and value are included in determining which colleges receive certain types of federal aid. And tomorrow, my Administration will release a new "College Scorecard" that parents and students can use to compare schools based on a simple criteria: where you can get the most bang for your educational buck. To grow our middle class, our citizens must have access to the education and training that today's jobs require. But we also have to make sure that America remains a place where everyone who's willing to work hard has the chance to get ahead. Our economy is stronger when we harness the talents and ingenuity of striving, hopeful immigrants. And right now, leaders from the business, labor, law enforcement, and faith communities all agree that the time has come to pass comprehensive immigration reform. Real reform means strong border security, and we can build on the progress my Administration has already made – putting more boots on the southern border than at any time in our history, and reducing illegal crossings to their lowest levels in 40 years. Real reform means establishing a responsible pathway to earned citizenship – a path that includes passing a background check, paying taxes and a meaningful penalty, learning English, and going to the back of the line behind the folks trying to come here legally. And real reform means fixing the legal immigration system to cut waiting periods, reduce bureaucracy, and attract the highly-skilled entrepreneurs and engineers that will help create jobs and grow our economy. In other words, we know what needs to be done. As we speak, bipartisan groups in both chambers are working diligently to draft a bill, and I applaud their efforts. Now let's get this done. Send me a comprehensive immigration reform bill in the next few months, and I will sign it right away. But we can't stop there. We know our economy is stronger when our wives, mothers, and daughters can live their lives free from discrimination in the workplace, and free from the fear of domestic violence. Today, the Senate passed the Violence Against Women Act that Joe Biden originally wrote almost 20 years ago. I urge the House to do the same. And I ask this Congress to declare that women should earn a living equal to their efforts, and finally pass the Paycheck Fairness Act this year. We know our economy is stronger when we reward an honest day's work with honest wages. But today, a full-time worker making the minimum wage earns $14,500 a year. Even with the tax relief we've put in place, a family with two kids that earns the minimum wage still lives below the poverty line. That's wrong. That's why, since the last time this Congress raised the minimum wage, nineteen states have chosen to bump theirs even higher. Tonight, let's declare that in the wealthiest nation on Earth, no one who works full-time should have to live in poverty, and raise the federal minimum wage to $9.00 an hour. This single step would raise the incomes of millions of working families. It could mean the difference between groceries or the food bank; rent or eviction; scraping by or finally getting ahead. For businesses across the country, it would mean customers with more money in their pockets. In fact, working folks shouldn't have to wait year after year for the minimum wage to go up while CEO pay has never been higher. So here's an ide |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 05:45 PM PST Article submitted by JJ3, also known as Joel Jenkins, creator of the soundtrack for the revolution. The company that I work for uses ADP for their payroll as many companies do. ADP has a convenient portal so that you can see your paycheck online if you want to view your deductions as we do not receive a physical hard copy check. I wanted to check one of my deductions and make sure it was being correctly calculated today so I went online to take a look. I found what I needed and then I took a look at the other deductions that were being taken by the government. Today is Feb 7th, so far I have received three paychecks for 2013, I was amazed to see that over $500 had been taken out of my paycheck so far this year, just for the social security tax. This triggered a memory of the time when I opened up the first paycheck I had ever received. Back then minimum wage was $3.30 an hour, but that was enough to entice me to want a job, I was only 15 years old and I wanted to work. I had a roof over my head and food to eat neither of which I had to pay for. I didn't mind working for that amount as this was all discretionary income for me. This was play money for me, there was nothing on the line, no bills to pay, no kids to worry about. I used that money to rent a movie, buy some candy or go play some Super Mario Brothers on the free standing video arcade at the Jiffy mart down the street. Remember those? Granted this was before the inflation of the past 25 years that has made three dollars essentially worthless, certainly not enough to live on if I had had real bills to pay or a family to feed. But it was a fair amount of money back in the mid 1980's. However, in my individual situation I probably would have worked for $2 an hour, I just wanted some money of my own. I did mow lawns for money on occasion but this was a real job with steady hours. I didn't want to have to depend on my mom to buy me the star wars figures and other toys I had wanted for years, she was a single mom and I knew she didn't have much extra money to spend on things like that for me. So I started my new job as a busboy with a zeal that only the young have. The job wasn't too hard and one of the waitresses was really cute and the food was excellent. It was an Italian restaurant so to a 15 year old it didn't get much better. I remember feeling very proud as I opened my first paycheck. What an awesome concept, what an amazing feeling of accomplishment to earn my own money. It felt really good, that is until I saw the total dollar amount. I had put in a full work week, close to 40 hours. I had calculated in my head how much I thought the check would be. It's easy enough math after all, $3.30 an hour times the hours I had worked which were right on my time card I punched in and out of work with every day. So imagine my surprise when I opened up the paycheck and the amount was substantially less than what I had calculated. I thought something must be wrong – they must have missed some hours. I went off to tell the manager and explain to her that she had calculated wrong. She explained to me that the check was in fact correct and the reason it was not as much as I thought it would be was that there were taxes that had to be paid. I felt a little betrayed. It was very hard to understand as a 15 year old how money that I had earned was taken from me before I even received it. I thought taxes were something that I paid to the government, not something that was taken from me before I even received it. It just didn't seem right to me, but everyone assured me that it was correct, and that is just how it was. I shrugged my shoulders and went back to work, eventually I would be rich, I knew, because this was America and I was determined to work hard and eventually make lots of money, I wasn't sure exactly how but I was sure that is the way it worked in America. It was only chump change anyways. A couple of years later after I graduated college I got another job, supposedly as an assistant controller for a small company. However, in retrospect, I can see now that I was just an extra hand in customer service. In this new post college job I was making $8.50 an hour, big bucks to me at that point and I had gas to buy because it was a fairly long commute. I also had rent and bills to pay. Back then my rent was $420 a month for a two bedroom that I split with a roommate and we didn't have things like cellphone or internet bills. I think my cable bill was less than $40 a month, my electric $50 a month and water around $20 a month. After I got my first paycheck on this job, I wasn't confused or surprised. I was angry. Didn't the government understand? This job was different, this wasn't just money to play around with, I had bills to pay and some extra things that I really wanted like a new surfboard. The money that the government was taking from me was money that I could use to buy things that I wanted after all the bills were covered. It just didn't seem right to me that the government could just take a big chunk of my paycheck without even asking me if it was ok. Back then, I was under the illusion that the government was benevolent, like a kindly old uncle that did things that were in the best interests of everyone. I thought that the government provided essential services that no one else could provide like roads, schools, hospitals and who knew what else. So even though I was angry at the way they just took my money that I had earned, I didn't want to be selfish and if the government was taking my money then I was sure that they had good reasons. Eventually, I just came to accept the fact that my paycheck would be less than I actually earned and that's just the way it was. Everyone has to contribute a little bit towards the common good right? After a couple of paychecks I no longer got angry I just accepted it and learned to condition myself to budget around what was left for me after the government got its cut. Sound familiar? After the financial collapse of 2008, I had worked as an accountant for many years and I made decent money, above the average for society. The collapse didn't affect me much. Our company sales were down for the year but I still got a small raise and a bonus. It wasn't as much as I had hoped for but it just didn't seem like that big a deal to me. I heard some people were losing their jobs but that was their problem, not mine. I had finally just bought a house, something I had trying to do for a long time because I knew that was the way you got ahead in America. I saw all my friends buying houses and "flipping them", but I didn't have very good credit so I wasn't able to get in on the cash bonanza that was the housing market. The reason I didn't have good credit was because I had been given tens of thousands of dollars worth of credit cards when I was in college and graduate school and of course naturally at 21 years old I was a wizard at managing my money. Not! But it didn't matter to me because I had a college degree, a Masters degree no less, so I was going to be rich one day. Who cares about a couple of tens of thousands worth of credit card debt, one day I would be making so much money I would pay off all my debt with one paycheck. At least that is what I thought at the time. After all this was America, the land of opportunity and one day I was going to be rich. Eventually, when the minimum payment got a little too high to pay and I lost my job shortly thereafter, I did what any red blooded American would do. I financed a trip to Cancun on my credit cards and then quit paying them when I got back. I thought who cares? After seven years it will just fall off my credit report and I will be good. Besides, I would be rich one day and I wouldn't even need credit. But then I watched as many of my friends bought houses and then sold them and made lots of money. I wanted to do that too, but I couldn't because I had bad credit. But finally in 2008 with the help of my stepdad cosigning for me and my mom also having to cosign for me (at the last minute they insisted after reviewing my credit one last time) I was finally able to buy a house. Now we were talking! I was finally on my way to making my fortune. With my house value going up every year and my salary going up I was going to be rich. Just like my friends had done, I was going to hold on to this house for about 4 to 5 years and make about a huge chunk of change, which I would then turn around and by a bigger house, which I would then turn around and make even more money which I would then buy a house on the river with a boat and a big screen and whatever else I wanted with all of the money I was going to make "flipping houses" like my friends had done. I was going to be rich, because that was the American Dream, owning a house and then selling it and buying a bigger one. I had finally figured out the secret, I was on my way. I was finally going to be rich. Back then I had turned my back on God. I had grown up in a very supportive church. It was actually my neighbor's church and my mom went sometimes but mostly I insisted on going with them regardless. There were some cute girls in that church so I think that is why I liked to go. But as I got older I realized not many people had grown up going to church. In college I had some friends that were spiritual but then I started waiting tables and hanging out with the cool crowd. Eventually, I began to believe that church was just a scam to get your money and I was smart enough not to be taken in by that old con job. Of course, looking back I now realize I had replaced my worship of God with worship of money. That is the American way after all, right? Unfortunately, things didn't turn out the way I planned. Somehow the housing market collapsed, even though everyone knew that housing values didn't go down. I was really confused and a little angry all over again. I mean, house prices had been going up like forever. I knew that, everybody knew that, how could they do down. I thought, it must just be an anomaly. I was sure that my new houses value would turn around and go back up next year or the year after. I mean, it has to right, it's a house? A couple of years later, around 2011, once my house bottomed out at about sixty percent of what I paid for it, I felt my anger rising again. This really wasn't fair. Why is it that every time I decide to invest in a sure thing, the sure thing became a very unsure thing that did exactly the opposite of what it had been doing for years. The same thing happened to me ten years ago when I bought a bunch of internet stock that was supposed to make me rich. Good thing I bought those stocks with those checks the credit card companies gave me that I stiffed or else I would have been really mad. I knew that all those rich bastards had somehow made out with my money but I didn't know how, but I was sure it was the rich people's fault. It wasn't supposed to be like this. At this point all my friends were just living in their house as long as they could without paying rent and then walking away as they got foreclosed upon. But what did they care they were saving thousands every month? I thought that they were so smart to play the system like that and I wished I could do it too. It wasn't even my conscious that got in the way so much as it was my parent's name was on the loan with me and I just couldn't ruin their credit. I didn't so much care about mine but I couldn't do that to someone who had helped me out when I needed it the most. So I started asking questions, I heard about the Occupy movement and I began to follow it and listen to what the occupiers were saying. I was right, it was the rich people, the 1% who had robbed me and taken away all of the money I was supposed to earn on my house. I was ready to go protest on Wall Street with the other occupy movement activists. I thought that they were so cool and were going to make some real changes that we needed. I knew that the system had to be changed and these guys all seemed to have a plan to do just that. In all of the OWS online videos I began to look at I saw people with all kinds of signs and one in particular didn't make much sense to me, it said END THE FED but I really didn't know what that meant. I googled it and found out that it meant End the Federal Reserve Bank and I didn't understand what a government bank had to do with anything. But my curiosity got the best of me and I wanted to understand what the Federal Reserve was and how it worked. I also really wanted the 99% to rise up and overthrow those rich bastards. Never mind that I had aspired to be one of those rich bastards myself for years. But then an interesting thing happened. My research led me to this old guy named Ron Paul saying some very interesting things. Apparently he had run for President in 2008, (funny I never heard about that) and had written a book called End the Fed. I wanted to know more about that. I mentioned wanting to know about the Federal Reserve and an older guy at work told me about a website called silverbearcafe. So I checked it out. They had a whole section on the Federal Reserve and why it was bad for our economy. I read about three or four articles but it wasn't making complete sense to me. I kept at it however and after a month or two of reading all the articles on this site I began to notice a pattern and I realized that the person who ran this website wasn't writing all of the articles he was just providing links. So I started following the links which led me to read articles on other websites like The Burning Platform, Mish's economic analysis, The Economic Collapse Blog, Zero Hedge and Lew Rockwell, to name a few. Holy smokes, I couldn't believe what I was reading. There was a whole other alternative media out there that was saying the complete opposite of everything I was hearing on CNN and MSNBC. I was right, I had been ripped off and I was being ripped off even more every day by an insidious tax called inflation. The equity was stolen out of my house but it wasn't by the rich people it was by the banks themselves. For God's sake the banks even knew what was going to happen as they were betting against their own mortgage bundles. Why wasn't anything being done I thought? Shouldn't the government be doing something to stop the banks from stealing my home's equity from me? Then I heard about some fines that the banks were paying to the government and I came to the realization that they were in on it too. The government wasn't putting the people who did this in jail, the government was just taking their cut. Their excuse was that these banks were too big too fail, but that made me wonder if that were the case weren't they too big to succeed as well? I began to truly understand what was going on that our country was being robbed on a massive scale and the banks through the Federal Reserve were intentionally devaluing our currency that would eventually lead to a collapse of the dollar. I understood the math, I understood the financial mechanisms and I saw the certainty that this system was unsustainable and would eventually collapse under its own hubris. I saw the duct tape that was holding not just our country's economic system together but the international economic system as well. I was way past angry and was downright becoming revolutionary. I felt like I had become awake in a world full of people who were still sleeping, I wanted to tell everyone and explain to them what was REALLY going on. How the whole false Left Right Paradigm was dividing us when in essence both political parties were continuing on the same path to ruin. I needed people to know, but I soon discovered that most people didn't really want to listen. Some of my best friend's that I have known since childhood told me that they don't speak crazy, or Ron Paul's a racist or my personal favorite, "Socialism is Love". Oh my God, I thought, not only do they not want to wake up with me, they think I'm crazy for telling them what I absolutely know in my heart to be the truth, backed my many facts, not theories. I remember reading a quote, "Truth is Treason in an Empire of Lies" and I truly understood what they meant. I began to see everything in a different light. The news on CNN and MSNBC was different, I could see right through their arguments and I finally understood what people meant when they said that the mainstream media was slanted in their arguments. I reevaluated my opinion of the unauthorized invasion of Libya, which at the time I remembered thinking, those poor people in Benghazi, they are about to be slaughtered. WE MUST DO SOMETHING! I began to realize that my education in government schools was complete propaganda. Abraham Lincoln was not the saint that they always told me he was. The civil war he instigated wasn't about ending slavery as they led me to believe, it was about money and consolidating the power of the Federal government over the States. The entire premise for the civil war was something called a false flag where the government uses propaganda to justify state violence. I found out that slavery was ended in Britain without any war at all. I also realized that FDR wasn't a hero who helped create a better society, he was the person who set our country on the path to ruin some 70 years later. He was extremely anti-business and his policies or "leadership" actually extended the great depression by a decade. It wasn't world war II that ended the great depression as I had always believed and been taught, it was a change of governmental policies that allowed the free market to work it's magic. From Pearl Harbor to Osama Bin Laden, it was all lies and propaganda. I began to question the official explanation for the 9/11 attacks. I started to understand that there was a police state emerging in "The Land of the Free". I began to realize that we weren't nearly as free as I thought we were. Then something really crazy happened. I went back and saw videos of Ron Paul predicting the housing crisis years before it happened. Articles on the alternative media that I was reading that had made predictions that seemed a little out there when I was reading them, well, their predictions started to come true. The explanation that there was a group of elites that was controlling everything at the highest level seemed a little far fetched to me when I first heard it. However, now the idea of a "directed history" with which the elites had been controlling the way entire populations thought for centuries made complete sense to me and felt more like the truth than the truths I had been taught. I was trying to explain all of this to my parents, my wife and my friends. I wasn't doing a good job supporting my arguments so I listened to a reading of Murray Rothbard's "For a New Liberty" on my ipod. I joined a libertarian book club and read "The Law" by Frederick Bastiat. I bought the book "The Road to Serfdom" by Frederick Hayek and "Human Action" by Ludwig von Mises. I began to listen to the Lew Rockwell podcast and read every article I could find that revealed the truth of how the Free Market will always do a better job than a centralized power for one reason. I discovered a very important truth, profit equals motivation. I began to write lyrics based upon principles of liberty and freedom that I was learning about and I connected with musicians on youtube to create some really great music that I shared with my growing audience. I made a promise to help cure the Ideology of Apathy that had permeated our culture. I reconnected with God. I realized that God had provided me with a gift for writing and that he had a purpose for my life other than playing video games, watching football and getting drunk on weekends. I realized that there truly was a battle going on between good and evil in this world and that I wanted to fight for the side of the good. I felt it was His will that I follow this path and I continue to do this today. After finding out the truth I felt as if I had been set free. I felt like I had no choice but to fight in any way that I could. I had to inform my friend regardless of the scorn. I began to discover essentials truths about economics and I began to realize that there were free market alternatives that could provide a better functioning society. I realized that private companies could and had in the past provided efficient police, roads and court systems throughout history much better than any centralized power ever could. I began to hate the state and I considered it my enemy. So back to my paycheck… Once I made the realization that all taxation is in essence THEFT I realized that this bureaucratic, corrupt, inefficient government full of gangsters will steal from me over $500 a month for a tax that is supposedly supposed to help pay for my retirement. I know the money has already been looted from the Social Security Fund and I don't think for one second that I will receive one dollar back that I have put into the system. Once you awaken and realize the LIES and can identify them as such it makes you realize just how many there are. They are endless. It reminds me of the old joke, how do you know a politician is lying? Their lips are moving. The most important thing that I have learned through reeducating myself is that I have finally achieved the one thing that was so important to me throughout the years. I had become rich. I wasn't necessarily rich in the monetary sense however as I looked around and began to count my blessings I knew that I was richer now than I had ever dreamed I would be. I am rich with an amazing wife who supports me regardless of the new truths I discover almost daily now. I am rich in my relationship with Christ as he has given me a purpose. I am rich with family and friends. I am rich with an ability to write and share my thoughts with you. I am rich with thoughts and answers and a curiosity to know more. I am rich because I know the truth and it has truly set me free. "A true revolutionary is guided by a great feeling of love."
I recently wrote the lyrics to this song, I hope you enjoy it as much as I did writing it. If you want to hear more of my music come take a tour of my youtube channel at www.youtube.com/jenklefritz Welcome to the narcissistic nanny state It's a bureaucratic feudalistic magistrate. It's got an ego powered artificial mad mandate, If you're full of self importance than you think it's great If you love to control others then you can relate But the only thing a government can ever create is a central banking system a destructive tax rate, and a craving for power they can never satiate. CHORUS: Governments and bureaucrats, Monopolies and manipulated stats Bureaucracies and men in black, Come work for us we'll all get fat.
They'll offer you destruction and democracy, They'll give you money if you follow policy, They'll never let you know it's all a fallacy They'll even let you pretend that you're truly free As long as you don't ever go and disagree Then they won't shock and awe you very viciously.
We're regulated by fickle fabulous fools, Who love to dominate you with their government rules. They're in it for the power and perhaps the glory, Manipulate the media to sell their story
The military industrial complex, Enforces all their orders regardless if they wreck, The lives of ordinary people by mistake, To get your vote they'll give but they prefer to take. To offer up a little bit of clarity, You just can't print your way to prosperity. I just want a government that's sensible, And follows a non aggression principle, But every day leviathan increases in size, Truth is treason in an empire of lies.
Joel Jenkins |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 05:26 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| What's Up With These Trust Funds? Posted: 12 Feb 2013 04:32 PM PST
The topic of the day is the Military Retirement Service (MRS) and the Federal Employee Retirement Fund (FERS). Let me be very clear at the onset of this – I don’t understand what is happening with these two. But, that's the point. I’m not sure that anyone knows what's going on here. At least not the folks in the Press, or the public.
My interest in FERS/MRS was tweaked a week ago with the release of the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) annual report on the economy and the budget. The critical number from the CBO was its calculation of the future Debt to Public/GDP ratio. There is a footnote to the CBO’s calculations:
I read this (me being the suspicious type) and said to myself;
Social Security IS adding to the Debt Owed to the Public (DOP). CBO calculates the SS cash shortfall and includes it in the total for DOP. My question was do FERS and MRS also contribute to DOP? If so, by how much?
I did do some research; there is information on-line related to these entities . I did not find the answers to my questions however. I determined that the Congressional Research Service (CRS) is the source of most of the information that is available. The more I read, the more questions I had. Over the weekend I wrote a long e-mail to the author of the report for FERS. Sure enough, Monday morning I got an answer. Not bad for the Government, huh? Unfortunately it was not quite the answer I was hoping for:
I can understand that CRS is too busy helping out legislators to answer any of my silly questions. But there is no other way to get the information I wanted other than to ask the folks in D.C. Color me disappointed.
For what it’s worth, I think that FERS and MRS are adding to the DOP in a significant way. It will be measured in the hundreds of billions over the next ten-years. Anyway, I do have some questions about the published materials, including:
On FERS
FERS has a trust fund called the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF). Some raw data on CSRDF from CRS:
- The Balance of the Fund is $800 Billion! Sounds good! But…
- Because CSRS retirement benefits have never been fully funded by employer and employee contributions, the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund has an unfunded liability.
How big is the hole at FERS? Pretty big…
- The unfunded liability was $622.3 billion in FY2010. According to actuarial estimates, the unfunded liability of the CSRDF will continue to rise until about 2023, when it will peak at $684.8 billion.
There is a requirement to measure the projected results of any government trust fund over a 75-year period. I think this a complete waste of time as no one has a clue what the world will look like in 50+ years. This is what CRS thinks is in the future for its TF:
Well look at those beautiful numbers. The TF grows to a cool 14 trillion! There is one assumption that drives these results - The US economy is going to soar every week, month year and decade – for ever! CRS has the economy growing from a measly 16T today to – hold on - $450T in 2085. This miracle is the result of uninterrupted compound GDP growth of 4.5%. A growth rate like this is possible, but for a mature economy, with a non-stop aging problem and monstrous deficits this appears to be a “blue skies” outlook. Based on this, a 1 dollar cup of coffee today would cost $1,750 in 2085. With a tip, $2 grand.
The way FERS is set up, it gets bigger and bigger. Today it has a TF equal to 10 times current year payables. The TF will grow to 20 times then current payable over the forecast period. I think this is a perfect example of why the entire TF logic is flawed. The TFs should have a balance of one-year's worth of payments. The CRS recognizes the flaws in TF accounting:
Bingo!! CRS says there is no “money” in the TF. For those of us who have been pounding the table on this, it's nice to see in print. CRS explains further:
FERS will collect $4.2B in CASH and $90B in PAPER in 2013. It will pay out $78B in CASH. To me, this implies that FERS will be forced to redeem $74B of its paper for the year. Every penny of that would force an equal increase in DOP. This number would not be reflected in any deficit calculation. If this interpretation of the cash flows is correct, then it would be a very big deal.
One final point on FERS – It breaks out the Postal contributions - $3.9B due in 2013. The PO has no money and no borrowing authority left. Any “payments” that the PO made to FERS in the past were the result of direct PO borrowing from the Treasury. There is no “money” in this system. It’s just a bunch of IOUs. Those IOUs are all going to be DOP at some point. What we have here is a house of cards.
On MRS
MRS has a fancy annual report. The audit is done by that powerhouse CPA firm – Acuity Consulting. Never heard of them? Neither have I. This is a boutique accounting firm (on the D.C. Beltway, of course) that specializes in government audits. The principals of Acuity are all ex Air Force. The boss went to the USAF Academy. I think this is one of those “close” relationships you hear about.
MRS is different in many ways from either SS or FERS. But it is similar in that it has a trust fund, receives payment from the government and makes benefit payments. The Military TF also has assets, and those assets are expected to grow at a very rapid rate. In 2013 the TF totals $500B, it will grow to $2.676Trillion over the next 20 years. The compounded growth rate of the TF is a whopping 9%. A portion of this a function of increasing government payments, but the bulk of the growth comes from interest income. At least that is what MRS is saying. Here is the footnote that explains the critical assumptions on interest rates:
Huh? The Congressional Budget office released its estimates for the MRS Trust Fund today. CBO thinks the MRS TF will grow to $966B in 2020, MRS has reported that the number will be $1.174 Trillion. A modest $210B variance. What's a 1/4 trillion amongst pals?
MRS is restricted to investments in government securities. How does one achieve a 5.75% return investing in Govvies? The answer is that it's not possible. The assumption used to value MRS is way out of line with interest rate assumption used by CBO, FERS and SS. Why?
Look at how MRS invests its money. This blows my mind:
Fully 86% is invested in inflation-protected securities? The balance is in short date Treasury paper that has next to zero cash-on–cash return? What the hell are the Generals preparing for with this portfolio? The military is storing its “nut” in an inflation bomb shelter. To get a 5.75% return on this portfolio, inflation (CPI) would have to be well north of 6%. If the country experienced inflation of that magnitude on a sustained basis, it would blow up. I wonder if the Generals consulted with Bernanke when they put this investment strategy together. Ben would have told the Brass they would never see those results. (Who knows?)
Some TIPS facts – They have a negative yield across all maturities today. The yearly inflation adjustment is added to the principal. The cash flows from a 5 Year tip (assuming 2% CPI)
Year 1 -102 (you pay a premium up front) Year 2 0 (sorry, no cash interest for you) Year 3 0 Ditto Year 4 0 Ditto Year 5 +110 (Finally, you get a cash return)
On paper, MRS is in good shape. For 2013 it anticipates “revenue” of $122.8B, of which $28.5B is interest income. Cash expenses will be $54.5B. If you assume that most of the interest income is accrual, and not cash, then the remaining income of $84.3b is more than sufficient to cover benefits. On the surface, there is a $30B surplus.
It's here that I get confused. MRS has to come up with $54.5B of cash this year. Where are they going to get that cash? The description of the MRS "money" flows:
From this chart I conclude that MRS has next to zero cash income. It has accrual (non cash) income from investments. All of the other sources are marked Intergovernmental Transfers. These are not cash transfers. The transfers are more of that “Borrowing Authority”.
There is a possibility that MRS gets a bunch of paper which it immediately redeems with Treasury for the needed cash. If that were the case, then MRS would be forcing Treasury to issue more DOP (+50B?).
For America, the DOP to GDP ratio is crucial (more important than the Total Debt to GDP – that includes those meaningless TF IOUs). We know that DOP goes up when there is a budget deficit – but DOP also rises based on what is happening with the big Trust Funds. How much the TFs are driving DOP is something I would like to know, and I’m disappointed and frustrated that I can’t give you the “right” answer. If any readers can clear this up, it would be most appreciated. I’ll be sure to send a link of this to CBO, OMB, CRS, FERS, MRS and SS. If I do hear from someone, I'll let you know; don't hold your breath. Note: For those who have a check coming from FERS/MRS please don't read this as a suggestion that your benefits are at risk. That is not the case. Those benefits are money good. The taxpayers, well, they are going to have a problem with this.
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| Got Gold Report Posted for Subscribers Posted: 12 Feb 2013 03:39 PM PST HOUSTON – Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please log in and navigate to the Got Gold Reports section of the Subscriber Welcome Page to view a new special supplemental Got Gold Report update from today, February 12, 2013. We present evidence of and comment on an interesting imbalance forming in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitments of traders (COT) reports. That is all. Carry on. To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership
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| The Case for Silver Outpacing Gold Posted: 12 Feb 2013 03:39 PM PST Gold and silver might move in the same direction each day. But they aren't blood related. A lot of talk on the web right now says silver is significantly undervalued versus gold. Many of these pundits and talking heads like to point to ... Read More... |
| Gold Bears Out Of Time & About To Pay The Ultimate Price Posted: 12 Feb 2013 03:28 PM PST  On the heels of news coming out of Russia about their accumulation of gold, today KWN is pleased to present the most powerful case for gold that Michael Pento has ever written. Below is Pento's piece: This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Physical Silver Is The Investment Of The Decade Posted: 12 Feb 2013 03:20 PM PST We just attended a webinar organized by Eric Sprott and his respected partners John Embry and Rick Rule. These are well-known names within the precious metals community, partly because of their huge success but also because of their physical trusts (ETF's) which guarantee full backing of the precious metals. In the introduction, Eric Sprott made the point that the crisis is not over, although media and officials pretend so. There are many events that point to the fact the crisis is not solved. Think about the large Italian bank Monte Paschi which was bailed out because of their derivatives bets, the Dutch SNS Bank which was bailed out a weekend ago, the currency devaluations in Venezuela and Japan, etc. Linking this to gold, Eric Sprott said: "The people in Venezuela that held gold instead of cash or money in the bank did not suffer the devaluation, neither did the people in Japan."
Additionally, Eric Sprott made the point that there is no recovery based on several figures. At the beginning of 2012, the estimated growth was 3.5%. But apart from what was realized in the stock market and some investment products that were issued by the government, what happened to people and the economy shows a totally different picture. In the US, there is a negative real GDP, a 2% tax increase, the highest gasoline prices ever for the time of the year, etc. The treasury department reports on a yearly basis their debt situation (US). "The 2012 figures showed that the present value of known liability went up 4.7 trillion dollar plus a cash deficit of 1.5 trillion dollar results in some 6.9 trillion dollar deficit given a GDP of 16 trillion dollar. There are too much commitments from the US which cannot continue, entitlements will have to be cut in the US." Those figures do not show any economic recovery. The Case for GoldCurrent economic conditions are fundamentally bullish for gold, as summarized in this quote (Source: Markets at a glance, November 2011): Gold and silver are not traditional commodities, they are money. Their value lies in their ability to retain wealth in environments marked by negative real interest rates, government intervention, severe economic uncertainty and vulnerable banking institutions. The physical imports to China in the past two years have been astonishing. It contributes to gold's bright outlook. Gold follows goes where wealth is created An interesting slide with the title "Gold's changing fundamentals" was presented during the seminar. It shows the evolution of physical gold purchases since the beginning of this bull market. The Case for SilverEric Sprott and his partners are convinced that the case for gold is good, but the case for silver is excellent. They consider it "the investment of this decade", as shown in the next two slides.
Personally, we find the following table really insightful. It compares today's gold to silver price ratio of around 53 with the geological and historical gold to silver ratio, but also the GLD to SLV dollar based trading. Those ratios really put silver into perspective. The figures tell an interesting story on their own.
Eric Sprott adds to it: "Most bullion dealers tell me that half of their business is in gold and half in silver. It means around 50 times more silver is being bought than gold. That cannot go on forever." The Case for Platinum & PalladiumIt is no secret that Sprott has become a big fan of platinum and palladium. In a very recent infographic they explained the demand / supply fundamentals and the metals' strong outlook. The next chart show the structural deficit in both platinum and palladium, which is a unique event since this precious metals bull market.
Sources: Johnson Matthey Platinum 2012 Interim Review, CIBC World Markets Equity Research 2012 7 reasons why Sprott funds outshine competitionIn closing, one of the last slides listed the benefits of owning the trusts from Sprott:
More information about Sprott's offering is to be found here
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Plus Ca Change... Posted: 12 Feb 2013 02:18 PM PST This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Higher Posted: 12 Feb 2013 02:17 PM PST Gold dropped $10.51 to $1639.19 by a little after 5AM EST, but it then rose to as high as $1653.30 in New York and ended with a gain of 0.11%. Silver slipped to $30.57 in London, but it then climbed to as high as $31.128 and ended with a gain of 0.42%. |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 02:16 PM PST You see, we do not have the same monetary backdrop as back in 2008. Back then money supply growth measures were decelerating and going down (in some cases into negative territory). This is definitely not the case today. Read More... |
| Gold & Silver: Hidden Secrets Of Money (Trailer) – YouTube Posted: 12 Feb 2013 02:16 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Bain Capital: The World's Awash In Money – What Does That Imply & How Should You Invest ? Posted: 12 Feb 2013 01:20 PM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report Bain & Co., the private equity firm that you might have heard of during So writes Martin Lowy in edited excerpts from his recent post* on Seeking Alpha entitled Growing Global Capital Chasing Returns Will Chase The Stock Markets Of The World Upward.
Lowry goes on to say in further edited excerpts: I will assume that Bain's projection is more or less accurate, and based on that assumption, I will try to flesh out its likely meaning. 1. Low Interest Rates [Bain projects that the] low short-term interest rates that we now attribute to central bank activities may remain low, even if and when the central banks stop buying securities and raise the basic rates at which banks can borrow from them. [My comments:] Bain estimates that the global capital market is now about $600 trillion, and that it will reach $900 trillion by 2020….$300 trillion is lot of new money to find decent investments over merely a seven- or eight-year period. Even half that amount would be hard to absorb. The size of the global stock markets is about $60 trillion. The U.S. sovereign debt securities market is about $16 trillion. All the banks in the world are about $100 trillion. All the hedge funds in the world are about $4 trillion. Where is all that new money going to go? Wherever the money goes, it has to prevent relatively riskless short-term interest rates from going up very much, simply because the supply of investable money is so great. If Bain is right about the amount by which investable capital will grow, then the extra $5 trillion or so of assets that central banks hold at the moment should absorbed into the capital markets with ease and without boosting short-term interest rates appreciably. (Long-term rates are more dependent upon other factors besides supply and demand, including inflation expectations, which may change as central banks reduce their leverage — if they do so.) 2. Capital Must Go Up The Risk Curve [Bain projects that] if interest rates remain low then capital must go up the risk curve to earn income because although capital can sit idle, earning little for a while, it cannot do so for the long term. [My comments: I agree.] With interest rates low for an extended period of time, capital must continue to go up the risk curve. It must do so because otherwise, pension funds will not be able to pay benefits, savers will not be able to earn on their money, and money managers will not get paid. Perhaps the last point is the most important. Active money managers of all types get paid by investors only because the investors believe that they can make more money for their capital. That forces managers, in their own interests, to take risks. Don't take my word for it. Take a look at the brilliant speech by Federal Reserved Board Governor Jeremy Stein last week. He explains the mechanism through which the agency problem operates here almost to guarantee that in an extended low-interest-rate environment, investors will take greater risks. There is ample evidence that risk-taking has increased already. Some brokers go even further: They sell the illusion of higher returns with safety. Of course, safety is the illusion. Capital can sit idle for short periods of time but [as Bain points out] over the long term, if short-term interest rates are low, it must take risks. They can be credit risks, interest rates risks or market risks – but risks must be taken. 3. Equities Will Benefit From The Risk-Taking [Bain projects that] if capital must go up the risk curve, it must invest in junk bonds and equity, as well as fancier strategies that seek to take advantage of small arbitrage opportunities. Junk bonds will, therefore, suffer losses from time to time, and the arbitrage opportunities will be competed away by the smart people managing the money looking for the opportunities. That will leave equity as the most likely place for decent returns but those returns also will be competed away as world markets get frothier, simply because there is nowhere else for the money to go. That will lead to another crash when interest rates turn back up, probably as a result of a spike in inflation, or due to some other unsettling event. [My comments:] The risks that capital will take will be various. Gold and real estate have obvious market risks, as do equities. Long-term bonds have obvious credit risk. Adding leverage increases whatever risks are taken, but also can add to returns. Many people and institutions will elect to take the leveraging risks because they are not as obvious. Of course, the leveraging risks add risk not only to the individual investor or institution, but to the entire financial system as well. Equities, the asset class that I like to invest in, should benefit from the global rise of available capital. Gradually, it should result in higher valuations relative to traditional metrics. It is quite possible that we have seen that in action already, as the U.S. stock market has been elevated by many measures since 2010. Although that is unlikely to continue forever, additional investable liquidity in a continued low-interest-rate environment is bound to induce investors to seek returns that are less certain than historical metrics would suggest to be prudent in light of the accompanying risks…. Many investors make their asset allocation decisions emotionally, based on the most recent events in the markets. Many have essentially been out of the stock market since the lows of late 2008-early 2009, leaving one of the greatest bull markets in history for others to benefit from. Some of those investors are returning to the market this year. This may be a bad time to do so, despite my longer-term prognostication. Markets can be skittish for a variety of reasons, so the market may go down tomorrow and may continue to go down for a period of time. Good investors know that, and prepare for it mentally as well as by having money to invest when the market is down. How out of historical kilter will the metrics go? I am a pretty fearless prognosticator, but even I will not venture any guesses. 4. Eventually, The Risks Will Come To Fruition A time will come when, despite the world still being awash in liquidity, the overall level of risks being taken is going to spook market participants in all of the risky assets and strategies — probably all at one time. When that happens, there will be another great unwind. Probably it will look very different from 2007-2009, but its results may be similar. All the risky plays will collapse at once, and those who have leveraged their plays will be hurt the most. 5. When Is Eventually? Eventually comes when there is a market shock. It may be inflation. It may be war. It may be the pricking of a bubble in some asset class that causes investors in all asset classes to feel potential contagion and therefore, actual contagion. Few investors will be able to predict when it is going to happen but…predict that it is not going to happen for awhile. In the meantime, the stock markets will meander up and down, but secularly up, and those who elect to sit on the sidelines are likely to have low returns unless they decide to take other risks, such as high leverage, a great deal of interest rate or liquidity risk, or get lucky with an alternative asset class. The Lesson The lesson is that:
Sensible investors therefore, will design their portfolios to take advantage of the relative risk-on period that is likely to continue, while covering their downsides where possible….
*http://seekingalpha.com/article/1173461-growing-global-capital-chasing-returns-will-chase-the-stock-markets-of-the-world-upward
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Whether you are aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around us. It is a war of two opposing narratives: the future of our economy and our standard of living. This battle is about to break and when it does, one side will turn out to be much more 'right' than the other. The time for action has arrived. It's time to choose a side; to do your own personal calculus of the risks to determine where you need to be positioned and to take the necessary steps to get well-situated where you assess you need to be, to position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen. [This article comments on both positions to help you come to a decision as to whether you should play offense or defense.] Words: 1600 2. Soros Sees Interest Rates Soaring Soon – What Does That Mean for Bonds & Gold?
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It seems clear that there are a number of investors who have gained confidence in the global economy and are seeking to capture the growth opportunities taking place around the world. With the European crisis comfortably in the rear view mirror and global central banks taking the position that they will continue their easing policies, investors have taken their foot off the brake and have begun to accelerate….We see more sunshine and less stormy weather ahead [and explain why that is the case in this article]. Words: 695; Charts: 3 5. Start Investing In Equities – Your Future Self May Thank You. Here's Why
As Winston Churchill once said: "A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty" and in that vain I challenge all readers to fight off the negativity, see long-term opportunity in global equity markets and, most importantly, remain invested. Your future self may thank you. Words: 732; Charts: 6 6. Today's Investment Approach Must Change to Survive Tomorrow's Major Economic Changes – Here's How
The world is hurdling toward what seems to be certain economic collapse so, if your expectations are similar to mine, then you should be exploring ways to prepare for something that eventually will become an economic dark age. Investment performance is always relevant and it has never been more important than in these difficult economic times – nor has it ever been more difficult. Markets have already changed and are getting worse…As the economy worsens, market movements [like the two 50% declines we have seen since 2000] are likely to become more pronounced [and, as such,] it behooves anyone with exposure to the stock market to understand what is happening and [take action to] protect themselves against further 50%, and possibly larger, downsides. [This article outlines how best to do just that.] Words: 1491; Charts: 2; Tables: 1
The U.S. has reached a Debt to GDP ratio of over 100%. Indeed, at no point in history has the U.S. had this much debt during peacetime – and the fact that we're overspending by this amount at the exact time that other countries are showing signs of shunning US Treasuries is a formula for disaster. With that in mind, it is highly likely that the U.S. will enter at the very minimum a debt crisis and quite possibly a currency crisis during the Obama administration's second term. [Such being the case,] now, more than ever, investors need to get access to high quality guidance and insights [and this article does just that] to help you navigate the markets and protect your wealth. Words: 964 |
| Are Gold and Silver Stocks Ready For A Rally Yet? Posted: 12 Feb 2013 12:50 PM PST Precious metals mining stocks may not look too encouraging recently - with mostly declines in 2013 and lack of any spectacular rally. But other influential markets suggest that the situation is likely to change in the near future ... Read More... |
| “Our Founders Had No Conception…” Posted: 12 Feb 2013 12:45 PM PST February 12, 2013
The list goes on… We have to apologize early today. We've been on the drone beat for several days here in The 5. We can't help it. We've been asking everyone who'll discuss it with us: What is it about these faceless threats that bothers people so much? Drones don't kill people, people kill people. Maybe it's because the tool can be used with relative anonymity or accountability. Maybe it's the fact the president and his top advisers review their "targeted strikes" overseas during weekly meetings they casually refer to as "Terror Tuesdays"…
We do. The map represents 81 "public entities" — law enforcement agencies, universities, even an Indian tribal agency — that have received drone authorization from the Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA came clean only because the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) demanded the list via the Freedom of Information Act. "Even the smallest drones can carry a host of surveillance equipment," says the EFF, "from video cameras and thermal imaging to GPS tracking and cellphone eavesdropping tools. They can also be equipped with advanced forms of radar detection, license plate cameras and facial recognition. And as recent reporting from PBS and Slate shows, surveillance tools, like the military's development of gigapixel technology capable of 'tracking people and vehicles across an entire city,' are improving rapidly." Drones were put in the air last weekend to look for Chris Dorner, the former Los Angeles cop who's murdered three people and is threatening to kill other cops and their family members. Some media outlets claim this would be the first time an American has been hunted by drones on U.S. soil. Not so.
Six cows wandered onto Rodney Brossart's property. He refused to return them. Police managed to escalate the situation into an armed standoff that lasted 16 hours before it ended peacefully. During that time, they called in a drone from the Department of Homeland Security. "Grand Forks SWAT team chief Bill Macki said in an interview that the drone was used to ensure Brossart and his family members, who were also charged, didn't leave the farm and were unarmed during the arresting raid," according to an account at U.S. News. Brossart's lawyer demanded the case be dismissed on grounds of "warrantless use of [an] unmanned militarylike surveillance aircraft." The courts didn't buy it.
Last week, the city council imposed a two-year ban on drones and forbade the municipal government from buying any drones. "It's our hope that the rest of the country will follow Charlottesville's lead in establishing clear limits on the use of drone technology, especially by law enforcement agencies," says John Whitehead, president of the Rutherford Institute — the civil liberties nonprofit that calls Charlottesville home. "Our Founders had no conception of things that would fly over them at night and peer into their backyards and send signals back to a home base," says Virginia State Sen. A. Donald McEachin. He's sponsoring a bill that would take Charlottesville's two-year moratorium statewide. It passed both houses of Virginia's legislature last week.
Anti-drone legislation is on the docket this year in at least nine states. It appears to making the most headway in Florida.
Now there are early signs some members of Congress are having second thoughts. "Obama's nomination of John O. Brennan to lead the CIA has touched off some of the congressional commotion over drones," reports the Beltway-insider newspaper Roll Call. "As the top White House counterterrorism and homeland security adviser, Brennan has guided the administration's drone strike policies." If there's any time that public pressure on Washington will have the most effect, it's now. That's why the Laissez Faire Club has organized a petition demanding the repeal of HR 658. They've already mobilized over 100,000 readers. We expect a few 5 readers might also lend a hand in the effort… If "we the people" stand any chance at reining in the drones, it's now… while the topic is hot in Washington. Next year, next month, even next week might be too late. Brennan's nomination will likely come up for a vote on Thursday. Now's the time to register your approbation: Sign the petition. Get the darn drones out of the sky! Seriously. When you're done, pass it along via email or Facebook or Twitter to as many friends as you can.
Precious metals have found their footing after yesterday's takedown — gold at $1,650, silver at $31 on the nose. Crude has firmed to $97.52.
Byron recently had a long talk with a couple of serious uranium scholars. "These gents laid out a strong case for strengthening yellowcake prices this year — 2013 — and well into the future. 'Yellowcake,' said one, 'is comparable to where gold was 10 years ago. We're looking at prices four-six times higher in the out years.'" The evidence is compelling, both on the supply side…
…and the demand side…
A four- to sixfold move in the uranium price implies $150-250 per pound. "If it works out, it makes great news for uranium producers." Byron has a favorite in the pages of Outstanding Investments.
It's a decent jump, and not surprising now that a lot of the uncertainty about taxes has been resolved for now… but by historical standards, it's still abysmal.
"While corporate profits are at record levels as a share of GDP, small businesses are still struggling to turn a profit," says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. Asked the "single most important problem" they face, 21% cited taxes, 21% cited red tape, and 19% cited poor sales. A year ago, poor sales led the other two categories.
CMA Datavision monitors the credit default swaps on debt issued by 1,200 governments and assigns a five-year probability of default. A couple of years ago, California and Illinois made regular appearances in the top 10. Now California is set to register a budget surplus this year… while Illinois is back on the list…
Standard & Poor's downgraded the Land of Lincoln again last month after lawmakers couldn't come to terms on how to fix the nation's worst-funded state pension system.
This pricey billboard is one product of a 10-year partnership between the Science World museum in Vancouver and Rethink, a Canadian ad agency. That's really 2 ounces of gold… hammered so thin that it covers 200 square feet. "We thought that instead of telling people how great gold [is], why don't we demonstrate it," said Rethink art director Carson Ting. "If every city put billboards up like this," enthuses Liz Dwyer in a recent post at the futurist website good.is, "they might help kids keep their inherent curiosity about the world around us." Alas, with the need for round-the-clock outdoor security, the billboard was up for a mere three days in May 2010. Ah, well… Vancouver has many other attractions. The next Agora Financial Investment Symposium is now less than six months away — affording you the chance to check out one of North America's most extraordinary cities and to hear from an impressive array of investing experts and authorities. Watch this space as we line up speakers for this year's event, July 23-26… and if you want to lock in early-bird registration rates, you can do so right here.
"I don't know what to say other than the education required to be a reporter is laughable. Calgarians, on average, are not that ignorant. We sell a lot of commodities. Most of us get it. "Keep up the good work over there. "P.S. My 10-year-old got the price of gold right when I asked him (within $20)."
"Also, we all know that the gold miners are under severe price pressures (increased costs/ increased payments to governments, etc.). So with ALL this going on, can someone articulate why the price of gold is not increasing sharply, as opposed to going sideways or even down? (I expect a fine newsletter like yours to give me some insight, and not just the facts.) Thank you…" The 5: We don't like to repeat ourselves, but as Samuel Johnson said, "Men more frequently require to be reminded than informed." Gold is still in stage two of a three-stage bull market — a cycle cited by James Turk and Doug Casey among gold luminaries. It's climbing the proverbial "wall of worry," after the smart money has loaded up but before the masses catch on. For the moment, gold and mining shares still make up a pitifully small percentage of global financial assets — somewhere in the low single digits. At gold's epic peak in the early '80s, it was 26%. Stage three will be when CNBC talks up junior gold miners the way they talked up tech stocks in 1999. And when reporters in Calgary recognize it's the dollar that's not backed by anything… Cheers, Dave Gonigam P.S. New figures reveal China has now surpassed the U.S. as the world's biggest trading nation. U.S. exports and imports totaled $3.82 trillion last year; China's came to $3.87 trillion. Consider how much of China's trade is conducted in U.S. dollars. "China not only needs a way to return all those trade dollars," says Byron King, "it also needs a safe, reliable place to invest such massive sums of money." At the same time, "U.S. Treasuries have become a ticking time bomb for China — one they desperately wish to escape from." You'll be bowled over by new evidence — and Byron's gold price forecast — based on China's actions alone. Yesterday, we held an editorial meeting to review his case. The finishing touches on the public presentation are in the works. Watch this space.
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| Chris Ecclestone: Gold Will Fall, Time to Switch to Specialty Metals? Posted: 12 Feb 2013 12:33 PM PST The Metals Report: Christopher, you believe that the market will recover in 2013. Why? Chris Ecclestone: We'll have a different type of recovery than we've had in the past, when everything was driven by the financial industry and house price inflation. The U.S. keeps driving along the edge of the cliff like Thelma and Louise, but never actually going over. I get the feeling that there will inevitably have to be a recuperation. The ducks are in the row now for an industrial recuperation—probably a construction-led one. I'm not talking about a rip-roaring recovery, but there is such a delicate balance in base metals between supply and demand that it doesn't take much recovery to vacuum up lingering stocks and tip the markets back into a deficit situation again. TMR: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a couple of hundred points away from its all-time high. Do you get the sense that retail investor sentiment has changed? CE: Not really. Retail is the last to arrive because retail is ... |
| Jordan Roy-Byrne’s gold price and mining stocks outlook – YouTube Posted: 12 Feb 2013 12:12 PM PST Check our website daily at... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.figanews.com for full Content ]]  |
| Gold/Silver Ratio: What Next for Metals Prices? Posted: 12 Feb 2013 12:00 PM PST What's behind the idea that the ratio of gold to silver prices is set to tumble...? |
| Your Investments: It's Time to Choose Between Playing Offense or Playing Defense Posted: 12 Feb 2013 11:50 AM PST "Follow the munKNEE" via twitter & Facebook or Register to receive our daily Intelligence Report Whether you are aware of it or not, a great battle is being waged around So writes Adam Taggart (www.PeakProsperity.com) in edited excerpts from his original article* entitled Time to Choose – A Fundamentals-Driven Breakout Seems Imminent. But Which Direction?.
Taggart goes on to say in further edited excerpts: The dominant story, championed by flotillas of press releases and parading talking heads, tells an inspiring tale of recovery and return to growth. The other side, less visible but with a full armament of high-caliber data, tells a very different story. One of growing instability, downside risk, and inequality. As different as they are in substance, they both share one fundamental prediction – and this is why you should care: This battle is about to break and when it does, one side will turn out to be much more 'right' than the other. The time for action has arrived. To position yourself in the direction of the break you think is most likely to happen. It's time to choose a side. The Case for Playing OffenseThe past several months have seen a surge in positive stories celebrating the U.S. emergence out of recession and back to solid economic health. 1) Tapping into shale oil and gas deposits is ushering in a new energy boom: Domestic energy production is on the rise, creating jobs and increasing exports, while reducing our dependency on foreign suppliers to the extent that the U.S. will be close to energy by 2030 (UPI)….[Read: U.S. Is NOT Going to Become Energy Independent – Period! Here are 3 Reasons Why] 2) The stock market is thriving, with several indices at record highs: Corporate earnings and investor confidence are booming, and the expectation of a Great Rotation of massive amounts of capital from low-yielding bonds into the stock market is high… [Read: 5 Reasons To Be Positive On Equities] 3) The global economy has made it out of the woods and is increasingly robust: In the US, the unemployment rate is down several percent from its recession high. The fiscal cliff was averted. The 2013 deficit has been reduced below $1 trillion for the first time in five years. The crisis in Europe has been successfully managed…. [Read: World Economy & Market Forecast: More Sunshine & Less Stormy Weather Ahead] 4) Housing, the engine of consumer wealth, is in recovery: Home prices are on the rise after years of punishing declines and a rebound in consumer spending is visible across a wide spectrum of home-related services… [Read: U.S. Housing Market Has All the Makings of a Turnaround – Look for Yourself] 5) Jobs are being created and consumer income is on the rise: U.S. personal income recently experienced its biggest increase in eight years. Non-farm payrolls have increased every month for the past two years. There are increasing examples of local job markets experiencing a true employment "boom"… A Rosy Picture Taken collectively, it's hard not to feel optimistic – even strongly so – about our future prospects. With these messages constantly being delivered and reinforced, it's little wonder that the status quo is not under attack, that the energy behind the Occupy movement has dissipated, because a better tomorrow lies ahead, right? The Case for DefenseAs alluring as the offensive narrative sounds, it contradicts starkly with the preponderance of underlying data. Data that requires some – but not too much – digging beneath the headlines. In counterpoint to the above narrative, a sampling of this data reveals the following: 1) Expensive oil is here to stay and will handicap economic growth for decades to come: Peak Oil is alive and well, despite the "shale miracle". The four major global oil producers…continue to report declining total production numbers despite more than doubling well drilling activity since 2007. Gas prices this February are the highest they've been in history…. [Read: Interested In What Oil Prices Will Be In 2013 – and Why? Then This Article Is For You] 2) Financial security valuations are dislocated from the fundamentals of the underlying companies: The trillions of dollars of liquidity pumped into the market by the Fed is, yet again, blowing asset bubbles in stocks and bonds…. Corporate insiders, despite their proclamations of record profitability, are voting with their feet and selling over 9 times more of their company stock than they are buying… [Read: 5 Sound Reasons Investors Would Be Better Off On the Sidelines Than In the Market] 3) The economic "recovery" is anemic at best, and skewed heavily to the top few percent: December saw negative GDP growth and last week saw the persistently-high unemployment rate creep back up. December's reported personal income increases was primarily a one-time event, as companies sought to pay out excess income and dividends in advance of anticipated 2013 income tax increases. Payroll taxes will rise on all employees, but carried interest and capital gains rates (how the wealthy earn their income) remain unchanged at historically low levels. Nearly two-thirds of Americans now expect anemic economic growth to define our "new normal" way of life….[Read: Gov't Says: "Happy Days Are Here Again For U.S. Economy" – Don't Believe It! Here's Why and U.S. Gov't Unemployment Deception Masking the Coming Economic Horror Show] 4) The housing market will not return to its former glory: With no real wage growth and further de-leveraging still needed, the consumer is not driving the modest price growth seen in many housing markets; instead, hedge funds are – they are buying up huge tracts of foreclosed homes, renting them out, and securitizing those rental streams. This will not result in the competitive bidding by multiple parties that drove the appreciation pre-bubble collapse…. [Read: Many Not So Sure That Our Housing Problems Are Behind Us – Here's Why] 5) Our trading partners are as bad off, or worse, than we are: Global markets have rallied in recent months as the news from Europe grew quiet – despite no real resolution to the core problems occurring. In recent days, fresh concerns about forex rates hurting competitiveness, crushing unemployment, and excessive debt have erupted. Meanwhile, Japan is everyone's leading candidate for the first developed nation of the 21st century to implode under its debts. China, whether it is able to avoid a hard landing or not in the short term, is staring at a mid-term food and water crisis that it has no solution to….[Read: Nouriel Roubini: 5 Downside Risks to Global Economy Are Gathering Force] 6) The risk of external shocks is under-appreciated and unplanned for: Currently financial markets and our just-in-time national distribution systems are geared for clear sailing ahead. Unexpected developments like superstorm Sandy, a Fukushima-like event, or an oil price spike could easily send prices – and availability of goods – swiftly awry…The UN warns that prices worldwide could easily spike this year, as world grain stocks are near historic lows….[Read: Byron Wien: 10 Events That Will Likely "Surprise" Us In 2013 and Grantham: Paradigm Shift Taking Place In Commodity Prices] Sobering Thoughts Sadly, this list could stretch longer if I didn't feel the need to end it here to avoid overloading the reader. Suffice it to say that there is certainly enough evidence to at least dispel a material amount of the sanguine outlook of those cheerleading for an offensive stance at this time. Picking Your SideOffense Those taking the optimistic view here argue that our economic engine has been running hard to pull us out of the hole we've been in for the past five years and now that we're back on level track, the engine's built-up head of steam is going to move us forward quickly. Expect better GDP growth, lower unemployment, higher income, high stock prices, higher housing prices, more innovation, and lower energy prices. If this future comes to pass, you won't want to be left in the dust as the party roars past. Get on the train – go long, perhaps with some leverage, and bet on America's grit and ingenuity. [Read: Start Investing In Equities – Your Future Self May Thank You. Here's Why] To be frank, this has been the winning side for the past year and a half. Those who have sided with the bulls have been rewarded with sizable stock gains and stabilized (or growing) housing prices. Defense On the other hand, if you, like me, find enough reason in the data for doubting the optimistic case, you need to determine what your defensive plan should be. The degree of defense you adopt should be based upon your own exploration of the data. Dig further than the samples I could only cursorily provide above. Come up with your own personal assessment of the probability and severity of the downside risks. If you find you assess the risks at or above the 'moderate' level (which I do), then consider strongly the following guidance:
Conclusion If you take the above steps, regardless of what happens, you'll be able to sleep at night knowing that you've acted conscientiously according to your convictions. In the event the bulls turn out to be 'right', few of these steps will serve you poorly. In a secular bull market, hard assets should still appreciate measurably….but if the bulls turn out to be the ones in error, the value of these actions could be priceless. Get to it. Do your own personal calculus of the risks. Determine where you need to be positioned and take the necessary steps to get well-situated where you assess you need to be. It's time to choose a side.
*http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/80845/time-pick-side
Related Articles: 1. U.S. Is NOT Going to Become Energy Independent – Period! Here are 3 Reasons Why
The United States is not going to become energy independent because of tight oil. Period. Reports to the contrary are an illusion of U.S. energy independence based on unrealistic assumptions and projections about the long-term potential of oil production from tight formations like the Bakken Shale in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas. There are several compelling reasons for this [as outlined below]. Words: 575 2. Interested In What Oil Prices Will Be In 2013 – and Why? Then This Article Is For You
Economics will dictate that you can only build so much storage to avert a price drop from continual over-supply and, right now, the world produces more Oil than it consumes each day, and it has for the past 16 months. This trend will only get worse so expect prices to finally start to address this over-supply issue in the Oil markets in 2013. [Let me explain further.] Words: 1640 3. 5 Reasons To Be Positive On Equities
For the month of January, U.S. stocks experienced the best month in more than two decades [and the Dow hit 14,009 on Feb. 1st for the first time since 2007]. Per the Stock Traders' Almanac market indicator, the "January Barometer," the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the first month of the year dictates where stock prices will head for the year. Let's hope so…. [This article identifies f more solid reasons why equities should do well in 2013.] Words: 453 4. 5 Sound Reasons Investors Would Be Better Off On the Sidelines Than In the Market
New year festivities have continued on the stock market even as the Christmas trees have been put away. The "death of the fiscal cliff," not horrible job numbers and supportive comments from Mario Draghi on the other side of the pond have led to bold and bullish behaviors over the last three weeks. While no one can predict the exact peak, here are five reasons you're better off on the sidelines than in the market. 5. Gov't Says: "Happy Days Are Here Again For U.S. Economy" – Don't Believe It! Here's Why
The government continues to assure us that happy days are here again for the U.S. economy and that we don't have anything to worry about – but should we trust what the CBO is telling us now? Of course not. Instead, perhaps we should listen to some of the men that successfully warned us about the last financial crisis and here is what they have to say. Words: 800 6. Nouriel Roubini: 5 Downside Risks to Global Economy Are Gathering Force
…[F]iscal austerity will envelop most advanced economies this year, rather than just the eurozone periphery and the United Kingdom. Indeed, austerity is spreading to the core of the eurozone, the United States, and other advanced economies (with the exception of Japan). Given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries. Words: 780 7. World Economy & Market Forecast: More Sunshine & Less Stormy Weather Ahead
It seems clear that there are a number of investors who have gained confidence in the global economy and are seeking to capture the growth opportunities taking place around the world. With the European crisis comfortably in the rear view mirror and global central banks taking the position that they will continue their easing policies, investors have taken their foot off the brake and have begun to accelerate….We see more sunshine and less stormy weather ahead [and explain why that is the case in this article]. Words: 695; Charts: 3 8. U.S. Housing Market Has All the Makings of a Turnaround – Look for Yourself
If I had to guess, I would say that a majority of people in the country still view the housing market in a negative light. They note: •the still-large overhang of foreclosed properties, •the still-low rate of new housing starts, and •the still-depressed level of housing prices in many parts of the country but that is looking at the market from a static viewpoint. There have been some very important improvements in the housing market over the past 18 months…that have all the makings of a clear turnaround that is underway and likely to continue. [Let me explain.] Words: 388 9. Many Not So Sure That Our Housing Problems Are Behind Us – Here's Why
With recent numbers positive for housing realtors, politicians, and others with vested interests, are quick to claim we are on our way back – but are such numbers really meaningful and sustainable? Many more objective analysts, however, are less sure or disagree with this conclusion that the bottom has been reached yet. Here's what some of them have to say. Words: 1377 10. U.S. Gov't Unemployment Deception Masking the Coming Economic Horror Show
How bad do things have to get before people realize that we are living throug |
| Posted: 12 Feb 2013 11:21 AM PST Did you know more people seek divorce advice around Valentine's day than any other time of the year? In a brilliant publicity stunt, this lawyer offered a free divorce of Valentine's day. His phone's been ringing off the hook ever since. Lawyers make a nice living preying off the pain and misery of others. With 50% of marriages ending in divorce, do you feel lucky punk? Do Ya? Getting divorced is easier than buying underwear. The countries and people that still value family and marriage are successful, and countries (like ours) that value divorce and broken homes are failing miserably; turning into social welfare states. Enjoy Valentine's day. Spend as much as you can, max out those credit cards, because by tomorrow you may be divorced.
Free Divorce For Valentine's Day Attorney Walter H. Bentley III of Southfield, Mich., will be offering a lucky client a Valentine's Day special: a free divorce. He got the idea, he tells ABC News, when one of his students in a night school class he teaches invited him to a party. "She'd just had her divorce finalized," says Bentley, "and she was celebrating. I'd never thought about that before—celebrating divorce. So, I thought, why not do something special for Valentine's Day? You can't find a new love before you close the chapter on the old." Bentley's website gives contest rules: "The winner will be chosen based on the most compelling and convincing story as to why they should be the winner. The divorce is limited to an uncontested divorce with no or minimum child custody issues." It's limited to Michigan residents. The deadline for applying is 11:59 p.m. EST on February 12. Nearly 500 people have applied so far, says Bentley. As decision hour nears, he his colleagues, he says, will narrow down the list, picking the stories they feel are most affecting. Then, after the contest closes, they will make their decision. "We're looking for someone truly struggling to move forward," he says, "maybe someone who's overcome some obstacle —a foreclosure, say. Maybe they're struggling to make ends meet, and they don't have enough money for a divorce." An illness also could give them a leg up. "Somebody diagnosed with cancer. Maybe that's one reason their spouse no longer wants to be with them," he speculates. A quick look around the U.S. by ABC News found some other attorneys offering divorce specials for Valentine's Day, but in them the winner is expected to pay court costs and filing fees. Bentley's appears to be the only completely free ticket to splitsville. "They won't have to take out their wallet for anything," he says. "All the hearings, all the paperwork. I will pay all the fees and expenses, to the end. What they're getting would ordinarily cost them $1,500 to $3,000." What kind of feedback has he gotten from clients or fellow attorneys? "90 percent positive. They all know I've got a big heart." A survey in 2011 by Avvo.com, a service that matches attorneys with clients, found a strong uptick in the number of people seeking divorce advice around Valentine's Day. But attorneys aren't the only people to profit from unions being put asunder. Josh Opperman was jilted by his fiancée six years ago. As if that wasn't bad enough, he discovered when tried to re-sell the engagement ring for which he'd paid $10,000 that his jeweler wouldn't give him a dime more than $3,500. He tells this story on the website he since has launched for persons buying or selling slightly-used engagement rings and wedding bands, "I Do Now I Don't." Among the used wedding bands currently showcased is one priced at $1,077. "Ring owned by a real prince!" says the listing. "1 CT diamond/ 14K Gold. I am the only son of the last remaining descendant of the King & Queen of an overthrown monarchy. This was my wedding ring. As you can see, things did not work out as planned; however, the ex-fiancee and I are still close friends and we will always love each other." The deposed king signs himself "Johnny."
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| Gold, Silver Fail to Recover Losses Despite Talk of Currency Wars and Nuclear Testing Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:45 AM PST U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices failed to recover yesterday's lost ground Tuesday morning, hovering below $1650 per ounce, as stocks and commodities eased higher and the Euro gained against the Dollar, following news of a fresh nuclear test in North Korea and denials from policymakers that a currency war is taking place among major economies. Like gold, silver also failed to make up ground lost yesterday, trading below $31 throughout this morning. |
| Inflation is a function of diminishing demand for currency, Turk reminds Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:08 AM PST 12:02p ET Tuesday, February 12, 2013 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed today by King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk emphasizes a point he often has made: that inflation is in large part a function of diminishing demand for currency as well as increasing supply. The Federal Reserve's fourth quantitative easing announcement, Turk says, "may have been the tipping point because U.S. government debt purchases by the Fed have apparently switched from being bond-friendly to bond-bearish because of the hyperinflationary implications from turning government debt into currency. The evidence for this conclusion is that yields have been rising since then, notwithstanding continuing purchases by the Fed." An excerpt from Turk's interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/12_Ja... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold All-Pro Gold, run by long-time GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy, offers its services to GATA supporters and anyone else interested in precious metals. The company brokers a full line of precious metals and numismatic coins. It aims to inform prospective clients about the importance of the monetary metals as part of a diversified financial portfolio and to keep prospective clients current with market trends. All-Pro Gold has competitive pricing and ships promptly to clients so they may have physical possession. Learn more by e-mailing Fred@allprogold.com or Tim@allprogold.com or telephone 1-855-377-4653 or visit www.allprogold.com. Join GATA here: California Resource Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Opinion Around the World Is Changing When Deutschebank calls gold "good money" and paper "bad money". ... http://www.gata.org/node/11765 When the president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, pays tribute to gold as "a timeless classic". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/09/24/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a leading member of the policy committee of the People's Bank of China calls the gold standard "an excellent monetary system". ... http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphbenko/2012/10/01/signs-of-the-gold-stan... When a CNN reporter writes in The China Post that the "gold commission" plank in the 2012 Republican platform will "reverberate around the world". ... http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/key-blogs/1563-china-post-the-gop-gold... When the Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy of the U.S. House of Representatives twice called on economist, historian, and gold standard advocate Lewis E. Lehrman to testify. ... World opinion is changing in favor of gold. How can you learn why and what it will mean to you? Read the newly updated and expanded edition of Lehrman's book, "The True Gold Standard." Financial journalist James Grant says of "The True Gold Standard": "If you have ever wondered how the world can get from here to there -- from the chaos of depreciating paper to a convertible currency worthy of our children and our grandchildren -- wonder no more. The answer, brilliantly expounded, is between these covers. America has long needed a modern Alexander Hamilton. In Lewis E. Lehrman she has finally found him." To buy a copy of "The True Gold Standard," please visit: http://www.thegoldstandardnow.com/publications/the-true-gold-standard |
| One Hundred Years of Intrusions Posted: 12 Feb 2013 10:00 AM PST Imagine a time when the government knew nothing about the money in your bank. It cared nothing about how much you made, where you made it, and what you did with it. You could take your earnings in gold, silver, paper, or anything else, and never filed a sheet with the government. How you earned a living was none of the business of the political class. For that matter, your bank account could be under a false name and absolutely no one cared. This was the world of a mere 100 years ago in the United States. That's why it was called the "land for the free." Back then, all federal revenue — tiny by today's standards — came from a tax on imported goods. That tax did plenty of damage, as all taxes do. However, the system was superior because it took only a tiny share of private wealth and, most importantly, it had no privacy implications for average citizens. The reason for the dramatic change is rather simple. Now we have an income tax. The government determines how you are paid and what you can do with your money, and spends vast resources tracking it all. The government wants its share. Therefore you have no right to earn money without coughing up. The intrusion into our bank accounts was only the beginning. Over the course of 100 year, everything changed. The government can spy on our emails and cellphone calls, confiscate homes and cars with no legal proceedings, and even send drones over our houses and kill us legally. We are wholly owned. It is a world that no one living in late 19th century America could possibly recognize. This situation has many people extremely alarmed and very confused. Surely there are ways that we can protect our privacy. Surely there are ways to guard our freedoms from these intrusions. To that end, people who do not entirely understand digital technology will often react in ways that are counterproductive. They decide to stay away from all social media altogether. They don't get a Facebook account, they don't Tweet, they don't do LinkedIn, and some people won't even use a credit card online. These same people rail against private business in the digital age for collecting data on us. They won't use shoppers' cards at grocery stores. They denounce Amazon for tracking purchases. They freak out when Gmail feeds them ads based on subjects covered in the body of emails. They imagine that these are all symptoms of an age when privacy has been vanquished by the regime. I can understand this reaction, but here's the truth of the matter. All of these behaviors are the digital equivalent of digging a big hole in the ground and jumping in it. This will not protect you against intrusions by the state. In fact, this approach to protecting yourself can even have the opposite effect of making you more vulnerable than ever. There is a world of difference between a government that is spying on your bank account and an online retailer that tracks your buying habits in hopes of selling you more things you like. Government's actions are a threat to your human rights. The actions of private enterprise are ultimately designed to serve you better. I take what seems to be a counterintuitive view of how to protect yourself in age of ubiquitous government snooping. The solution is not to hide but exactly the opposite: become a public person. Embrace social media. Do not fear having your name online. In fact, the more of a known entity in the digital world you are, the more protection you actually enjoy and the more likely you are to have advocates should you find yourself mixed up with the police state. There will come a time when this network can save your life. You end up without a job and need that LinkedIn network right away. You might find yourself hauled off to jail and only have a few minutes to post that Tweet or status update. You can find yourself trapped in a high-crime area and need to help; this is when that Foursquare update can mean life or death. On the other hand, obscurity is something the government loves. If you get caught up in the criminal justice system, there is no network out there to cheer for you, rally on your behalf, and provide you legal help. If the arrest or the problem you face, makes the papers, there is no public profile to check against the government's claims. It was very intriguing that after the Sandy Hook massacre, the killer's own internet obscurity actually worked to convict him. People these days figure that a person who is in digital hiding is a highly suspicious person who has probably done something wrong. This is just about the worst way to begin an entanglement with the government. On the other hand, you can use social media as a way of shaping your professional and social personality to your own benefit. It is a way of taking control. And as for the tracking cookies that commercial sites are dropping on your browser, this is a complete distraction from the real problem. Amazon and Google don't want to send drones to your house. They want to engage in the completely non-threatening behavior of trying to sell you stuff. There is nothing about this desire that represents a threat to your well being. To be sure, it takes some degree of sophistication to use the internet in a way that that helps rather than hurts your professional reputation and life prospects. Generally, the rule applies always and everything: do not post anything anyway that you do not mind the whole world reading now and forever. That same is true for email. There is probably no venue of communication less secure than email. In the early years of the Internet, I thought that the public demand for privacy would doom attempts to create public social networks. No one wants their every thought and their whereabouts broadcasted to the world. On the score, I was completely wrong. In fact, the opposite is true. Vast numbers of people are gluttons for attention wherever they can get it. This is particularly true of young people who are acculturated to living public lives from an early age. Some people have a difficult time understanding this crucial fact. For the most part, the seeming privacy intrusions that private internet companies engage in are entirely in keep with consumer wishes. Nor is this anything that most people need to worry about it. Private enterprise is not the threat. Government is the threat. To be sure, private companies have proven themselves to be willing to cooperate with government agencies when they are asked to or forced to. This is truly awful. In the balance, however, staying away from digital media does not help maintain any freedoms or privacies. The better approach is to browse using the privacy settings on your browse. If you go to sketchy sites, use an IP scrambling device like Tor (which you can easily download). The privacy problem is a government problem. It is a policy problem. So long as we have a government money monopoly and an income tax, our rights are being violated. The spying, the confiscations, and the drones are just the mop-up operation. It's the politicians and bureaucrats, not the dot comes and the CEOs, who are the real enemy. Sincerely, Original article posted on Laissez-Faire Today One Hundred Years of Intrusions appeared in the Daily Reckoning. Subscribe to The Daily Reckoning by visiting signup for an Agora Financial newsletter. |
"The greatest triumph of the banking industry wasn't ATMs or even depositing a check via the camera of your mobile phone. It was convincing Treasury and Justice Department officials that prosecuting bankers for their crimes would destabilize the global economy."
Today's chart of the day examines silver's 12 year logarithmic parabolic up-trend chart that began in 2001. 
On the heels of news coming out of Russia about their accumulation of gold, today KWN is pleased to present the most powerful case for gold that Michael Pento has ever written. Below is Pento's piece: 
I just checked APMEX and they are offering the very rare (less than 400,000 total mintage) 2012 1/2 oz Silver Australian Lunar Year of the Dragon – in any quantity – for what Apmex is advertising as "$1.99 over spot". Although at $17.60 for each half-ounce coin, I calculate a premium of $3.99 per ounce. But for those in the know, it's still a GREAT deal for this coin. Just thought you'd want to know. (I just ordered some). 
A new hashtag on Twitter noticed over the weekend by the veteran muckraking journalist James Bovard:
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