saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- It's Time To Buy This Once Overvalued Stock
- Much Ado About Noise
- Bullion's Big Fuss Over Nothing
- Gold: Possible Solution to the Banking Crisis
- Party With These Streamers
- Euro Struggling Around 1.3000, Where To Now?
- James Turk: A Lot of Gold is MISSING
- Commodity Chart Of The Day: Aussie Dollar Pressures Commodities
- James Turk: "A lot of central bank gold is missing"
- Metals Price Does Not Equal Value
- Most Netherlands gold vaulted abroad because trading is easier
- Bullion Back to Level Before Jump & Later Slump
- Gold Recovers Pre-Jump-and-Slump Level, Forecast to Average $1920 in 2013
- Sprott and Baker - Gold: Solution to the Banking Crisis
- MAP 7 is available! The advent of a new world, by Michael Timmermans
- Precious Metals Rise on More Quantitative Easing Talk
- Positive Outlook for Gold in 2013 Still Favored
- James Turk: “A lot of central bank gold is missing”
- Silver Outperforming Gold May Signal Inflationary Rally
- 4 High Income Bonds To Insulate Against Rising Interest Rates
- Silver price edging towards key resistance level
- Pound Drops to Five-Week Low Versus Euro on Debt-Crisis Optimism
- Michael Tellinger: African Ruins and the Annunaki
- Gold: Solution to the Banking Crisis...Eric Sprott & David Baker
- Silver Myth: Silver is Super Volatile and Mega Manipulated
- Silver Update: Silver Questions 11.29.12
| It's Time To Buy This Once Overvalued Stock Posted: 30 Nov 2012 11:28 AM PST By StreetAuthority: By James Brumley They say timing is everything, particularly when it comes to stock investment. I don't disagree. That's why I recommended caution with most of the major super-discount retail stocks back in April -- it just wasn't the right time to take on a new position in any of those stocks. A lot can change in eight months, though. And it has, at least for one of these discount retailers. Thanks to some more encouraging clarity on the earnings front, combined with a big release of the technical tension its chart had brewed up, this stock is now a compelling buy. Insanely Overvalued In The Recent Past Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Nov 2012 11:02 AM PST How the Gold Price has gone nowhere – fast and aggressively – ahead of 2013... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bullion's Big Fuss Over Nothing Posted: 30 Nov 2012 10:59 AM PST What a fuss over nothing! Gold crept back Friday morning to right where it stood before last Friday's sudden 1.4% jump, trading at $1730 the ounce. That meant it also unwound half of this week's sharp 2.0% plunge from Wednesday. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold: Possible Solution to the Banking Crisis Posted: 30 Nov 2012 10:06 AM PST If global banks' are realistically going to improve their balance sheet diversification and liquidity profiles, gold will have to be part of that process. It is ludicrous to expect banking to regain a sure footing through the increased ownership of government securities. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 30 Nov 2012 09:03 AM PST By Introduction Precious metals have posted solid gains in the last six months following global central bank actions to stimulate economies worldwide. The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) is up 10.7% in the last six month. I have suggested that both platinum and silver could outperform gold in the coming months. Over the last six, the ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) are up 12.5% and 22.3% respectively. While money was made in the metals and mining stocks in that time, I believe there are still profits to be made in the gold, silver and platinum companies near-term, and without question in the long-term. In the summer prior to the major run in precious metal stocks, I pounded the table on the gold miners and the silver miners as I repeatedly encouraged investments in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), the Market Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Euro Struggling Around 1.3000, Where To Now? Posted: 30 Nov 2012 08:34 AM PST By FXstreet: The euro managed to push higher and printed a fresh 5-week high versus the dollar on Friday, but it lacked strength to consolidate at that level and pulled back at the beginning of the New York session amid talk month end dollar demand. However, EUR/USD regained the 1.3000 mark and is headed to retest highs as market's mood swings continue to drive crosses. An upbeat reading on Chicago PMI helped to offset weak spending and income data, underpinning stocks and putting the greenback under pressure. Trading has been choppy lately as investors react to mixed headlines out of Washington regarding progress in talks on averting the "fiscal cliff", when spending cuts and tax increases will come into effect in 2013. Meanwhile in Europe, Germany's parliament approved new aid measures for Greece, including the reduction of interest Greece pays on loans and the release of bailout funds.
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| James Turk: A Lot of Gold is MISSING Posted: 30 Nov 2012 08:13 AM PST Andy Duncan speaks to James Turk, about his claim that central banks are holding less in their physical gold reserves than many assume. from goldmoneynews: James Turk explains the problem that central banks report gold and gold receivables as one line item on their balance sheets. This allows them to lease out physical gold in return for paper claims — posing the question of just how much physical gold is left. They also discuss the Gold Money Index and the gold-based Fear Index. Both show that gold remains undervalued compared with historical norms. They talk about how close we are to a "Golden Cliff", where the western central banks stop lending out their gold, and what the systemic repercussions of this are likely to be. Finally, they assess the chances of Western governments undertaking gold confiscation and capital control measures; the likely amount of physical gold held at Fort Knox; and the reasons behind their prediction of an upcoming failure of fiat paper currency. This podcast was recorded on 30 November 2012. ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commodity Chart Of The Day: Aussie Dollar Pressures Commodities Posted: 30 Nov 2012 08:13 AM PST By Matthew Bradbard: Commodity chart of the day Daily Aussie dollar (click to enlarge) A weakening dollar in response to improved risk appetite has contributed to some recent strength in a number of commodities. As commodities go as does the Australian dollar. In the last 2 months prices have appreciated 3.5% to trade up near the trend line that has been established the last 6 months identified by the horizontal red line on the chart above. I am speculating that commodities will back off in the short run and therefore we should see some pressure in the Aussie. We would get confirmation on a move lower once the 20 day MA is penetrated identified by the dark blue line. Do I think we trade to the lower horizontal trend line and do a full retracement? No, but we should see enough movement for at least a trade. Be willing to cut losses Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James Turk: "A lot of central bank gold is missing" Posted: 30 Nov 2012 07:42 AM PST James Turk: "A lot of central bank gold is missing" (18 min 59 sec): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYnEAHIwn5E Published on Nov 30, 2012 by GoldMoneyNews Subscribe to our newsletter at http://www.goldmoney.com/goldresearch. Episode 77: GoldMoney's Andy Duncan speaks to James Turk, Chairman of GoldMoney and co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar (2004), about his claim that central banks are holding less in their physical gold reserves than many assume. James Turk explains the problem that central banks report gold and gold receivables as one line item on their balance sheets. This allows them to lease out physical gold in return for paper claims -- posing the question of just how much physical gold is left. They also discuss the Gold Money Index and the gold-based Fear Index. Both show that gold remains undervalued compared with historical norms. They talk about how close we are to a "Golden Cliff", where the western central banks stop lending out their gold, and what the systemic repercussions of this are likely to be. Finally, they assess the chances of Western governments undertaking gold confiscation and capital control measures; the likely amount of physical gold held at Fort Knox; and the reasons behind their prediction of an upcoming failure of fiat paper currency. This podcast was recorded on 30 November 2012. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Metals Price Does Not Equal Value Posted: 30 Nov 2012 07:33 AM PST Spot gold dealings started the final session of this turbulent week with a loss of about $6 in the price of the yellow metal, at $1,720 per ounce. Gold had recovered by about half a percent on Thursday but are now poised to record their largest weekly loss in four... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Most Netherlands gold vaulted abroad because trading is easier Posted: 30 Nov 2012 07:10 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bullion Back to Level Before Jump & Later Slump Posted: 30 Nov 2012 07:06 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold Recovers Pre-Jump-and-Slump Level, Forecast to Average $1920 in 2013 Posted: 30 Nov 2012 07:05 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sprott and Baker - Gold: Solution to the Banking Crisis Posted: 30 Nov 2012 06:54 AM PST Eric Sprott and David Baker write: The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is an exclusive and somewhat mysterious entity that issues banking guidelines for the world's largest financial institutions. It is part of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) and is often referred to as the Central Banks' central bank. Ever since the financial meltdown four years ago, the Basel Committee has been hard at work devising new international regulatory rules designed to minimize the potential for another large-scale financial meltdown. The Committee's latest 'framework', as they call it, is referred to as "Basel III", and involves tougher capital rules that will force all banks to more than triple the amount of core capital they hold from 2% to 7% in order to avoid future taxpayer bailouts. It doesn't sound like much of an increase, and according to the Basel group's own survey, the 100 largest global banks will only require approximately €370 billion in additional reserves to comply with the new regulations by 2019.1 Given that the Spanish banks alone are believed to need well over €100 billion today simply to keep their capital ratios in check, it is hard to believe €370 billion will be enough protect the world's "too-big-to-fail" banks from future crises, but it is indeed a step in the right direction.2 Initial implementation of Basel III's capital rules was expected to come into effect on January 1, 2013, but US banking regulators issued a press release on November 9th stating that they wouldn't meet the deadline, citing a large volume of letters (ie. complaints) received from bank participants and a "wide range of views expressed during the comment period".3 It has also been revealed that smaller US regional banks are loath to adopt the new rules, which they view as overly complicated and potentially devastating to their bottom lines. The Independent Community Bankers of America has even requested a Basel III exemption for all banks with less than $50 billion in assets,"in order to avoid large-scale industry concentration that would curtail credit for consumers and business borrowers, especially in small communities."4 The long-term implementation period for all Basel III measures actually extends to 2019, so the delays are not necessarily meaningful news, but they do illustrate the growing rift between the US banking cartel and its European counterpart regarding the Basel III framework. JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon is on record having referred to Basel III regulations as "un-American" for their favourable treatment of European covered bonds over US mortgage-backed securities.5 Readers may also remember when Dimon was caught yelling at Mark Carney, Canada's (soon to be former) Central Bank Governor and head of the Financial Stability Board, during a meeting in Washington to discuss the same topic.6 More recently, Deutsche Bank's co-chief executive Juergen Fitschen suggested that the US regulators' delay was "hurting trans-Atlantic relations" and creating distrust... stating, "when the whole thing is called un-American, I can only say in disbelief, who can still believe in this day and age that there can be purely European or American rules."7 Suffice it to say that Basel III implementation has not gone as smoothly as planned. One of the more relevant aspects of Basel III for our portfolios is its treatment of gold as an asset class. Documents posted by the Bank of International Settlements (which houses the Basel Committee) and the United States FDIC have both referenced gold as a "zero percent risk-weighted item" in their proposed frameworks, which has launched spirited rumours within the gold community that Basel III may define gold as a "Tier 1" asset, along with cash and AAA-government securities.8,9 We have discovered in delving further that gold's treatment in Basel III is far more complicated than the rumours suggest, and is still, for all intents and purposes, very much undecided. Without burdening our readers with the turgid details, it turns out that the reference to gold as a "zero-percent risk-weighted item" only relates to its treatment in specific Basel III regulation related to the liquidity of bank assets vs. its liabilities. (For a more comprehensive explanation of Basel III's treatment of gold, please see the Appendix). But what the Basel III proposals do confirm is the regulators' desire for banks to improve their liquidity position by holding a larger amount of "high-quality", liquid assets in order to improve their overall solvency in the event of another crisis. Herein lies the problem, however: the Basel III regulators have stubbornly held to the view that AAA-government securities constitute the bulk of those high quality assets, even as the rest of the financial world increasingly realizes they are anything but that. As banks move forward in their Basel III compliance efforts, they will be forced to buy ever-increasing amounts of AAA-rated government bonds to meet post Basel III-compliant liquidity and capital ratios. As we discussed in our August newsletter entitled, "NIRP: The Financial System's Death Knell", the problem with all this regulation-induced buying is that it ultimately pushes government bond yields into negative territory - as banks buy more and more of them not because they want to but because they have to in order to meet the new regulations. Although we have no doubt in the ability of governments' issue more and more debt to satiate that demand, the captive purchases by the world's largest banks may turn out to be surprisingly high. Add to this the additional demand for bonds from governments themselves through various Quantitative Easing programs… AND the new Dodd Frank rules, which will require more government bonds to be held on top of what's required under Basel III, and we may soon have a situation where government bond yields are so low that they simply make no sense to hold at all.10,11 This is where gold comes into play. If the Basel Committee decides to grant gold a favourable liquidity profile under its proposed Basel III framework, it will open the door for gold to compete with cash and government bonds on bank balance sheets – and provide banks with an asset that actually has the chance to appreciate. Given that US Treasury bonds pay little to no yield today, if offered the choice between the "liquidity trifecta" of cash, government bonds or gold to meet Basel III liquidity requirements, why wouldn't a bank choose gold? From a purely 'opportunity cost' perspective, it makes much more sense for a bank to improve its balance sheet liquidity profile through the addition of gold than it does by holding more cash or government bonds – if the banks are given the freedom to choose. The world's non-Western central banks have already embraced this concept with their foreign exchange reserves, which are vulnerable to erosion from 'Central Planning' printing programs. This is why non-Western central banks are on track to buy at least 500 tonnes of net new physical gold this year, adding to the 440 tonnes they collectively purchased in 2011.12 In the un-regulated world of central banking, gold has already been accepted as the de-facto forex diversifier of choice, so why shouldn't the regulated commercial banks be taking note and following suit with their balance sheets? Gold is, after all, one of the only assets they can all own simultaneously that will actually benefit from their respective participation through pure price appreciation. If banks all bought gold as the non-Western central banks have, it is likely that they would all profit while simultaneously improving their liquidity ratios. If they all acted in concert, gold could become the salvation of the banking system. (Highly unlikely… but just a thought). So far there have only been two banking jurisdictions that have openly incorporated gold into their capital structures. The first, which may surprise you, is Turkey. In an unconventional effort to increase the country's savings rate and propel loan growth, Turkish Central Bank Governor Erdem Basci has enacted new policies to promote gold within the Turkish banking system. He recently raised the proportion of reserves Turkish banks can keep in gold from 25 percent to 30 percent in an effort to attract more bullion into Turkish bank accounts. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi AS, Turkey's largest lender, now offers gold-backed loans, where "customers can bring jewelry or coins to the bank and take out loans against their value." The same bank will also soon "enable customers to withdraw their savings in gold, instead of Turkish lira or foreign exchange."13 Basci's policies have produced dramatic results for the Turkish banks, which have attracted US$8.3 billion in new deposits through gold programs over the past 12 months - which they can now extend for credit.14 Governor Basci has even stated he may make adjusting the banks' gold ratio his main monetary policy tool.15 The other banking jurisdiction is of course that of China, which has long encouraged its citizens to own physical gold. Recent reports indicate that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is planning to launch an interbank gold market in early December that will "pilot with Chinese banks and eventually be open to all."16 Xie Duo, general director of the financial market department of the People's Bank of China has stated that, "[China] should actively create conditions for the gold market to become integrated with the international gold market," which suggests that the Chinese authorities have plans to capitalize on their growing gold stockpile.17 It is also interesting to note that China, of all countries, has been adamant that its 16 largest banks will meet the Basel III deadline on January 1, 2013.18 We can't help but wonder if there is any connection between that effort and China's recent increase in physical gold imports. Could China be positioning itself for the day Western banks finally realize they'd prefer gold over Treasuries? Possibly – and by the time banks figure it out, China may have already cornered most of the world's physical gold supply. If global banks' are realistically going to improve their balance sheet diversification and liquidity profiles, gold will have to be part of that process. It is ludicrous to expect the global banking system to regain a sure footing through the increased ownership of government securities. If anything, we are now at a time when banks should do their utmost to diversify away from them, before the biggest "crowded trade" of all time begins to unravel itself. Basel III liquidity rules may be the start of gold's re-emergence into mainstream commercial banking, although it is still not guaranteed that the US banking cartel will adopt all of the Basel III measures, and they still have years to hammer out the details. If regulators hold firm in applying stricter liquidity rules, however, gold is the only financial asset that can satisfy those liquidity requirements while freeing banks from the constraints of negative-yielding government bonds. And while it strikes us as somewhat ironic that the banking system may be forced to turn to gold out of sheer regulatory necessity, that's where we see the potential in Basel III. After all – if the banks are ultimately interested in restoring stability and confidence, they could do worse than holding an asset that has gone up by an average of 17% per year for the last 12 years and represented 'sound money' throughout history. Appendix: Gold's treatment in Basel III Basel III is a much more complex "framework" than Basel I or II, although we do not claim to be experts on either. It should also be mentioned that Basel II only came into effect in early 2008, and wasn't even adopted by the US banks on its launch. Post-meltdown, Basel III is the Basel Committee's attempt to get it right once and for all, and is designed to provide an all-encompassing, international set of banking regulations designed to avoid future bailouts of the "too-big to fail" banks in the event of another financial crisis. Without going into cumbersome details, under the older Basel framework (Basel I), the lower the "risk weighting" regulators applied to an asset class, the less capital the banks had to set aside in order to hold it. CNBC's John Carney writes, "The earlier round of capital regulations… government-rated bonds rated BBB were given 50 percent riskweightings. A-rated bonds were given 20 percent risk weightings. Double A and Triple A were given zero risk weightings — meaning banks did not have to set aside any capital at all for the government bonds they held."19 Critics of Basel I argued that the risk-weighting system compelled banks to overweight their exposure to assets that had the lowest riskweightings, which created a herd-like move into same assets. This was most evident in their gradual overexposure to European sovereign debt and mortgage-backed securities, which the regulators had erroneously defined as "low-risk" before the meltdown proved them to be otherwise. The banks and governments learned that lesson the hard way. Basel III (and Basel II) takes the same idea and complicates it further by dividing bank assets into two risk categories (credit and market risk) and risk-weighting them depending on their attributes. Just like Basel I, the higher the "riskweight" applied to an asset class, the more capital the bank is required to hold to offset them. It is our understanding that gold's reference as a "zero percent risk-weighted asset" in the FDIC and BIS literature only applies to gold's "credit risk" - which makes perfect sense given that gold isn't anyone's counterparty and cannot default in any way. Gold still has "market-risk" however, which stems from its price fluctuations, and this results in the bank having to set aside capital in order to hold it. So for banks who hold physical gold on their balance sheet (and we don't know of any who do, other than the bullion dealers), the gold would not be treated the same as cash or AAA-bonds for the purposes of calculating their Tier 1 ratio. This is where the gold community's conjecture on gold as a "Tier 1" asset has been misleading. There really isn't such a thing as a "Tier 1" asset under Basel III. Instead, "Tier 1" is merely the ratio that reflects the capital supporting a bank's risk-weighted assets. HOWEVER, Basel III will also be adding an entirely new layer of regulation concerning the relative liquidity of the bank's assets and liabilities. This will be reflected in two new ratios banks must calculate starting in 2015: the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). Just as Basel III requires risk-weights for the asset side of a bank's balance sheet (based on credit risk and market risk), Basel III will also soon require the application of risk-weights to be applied to the LIQUIDITY profile of both the assets and liabilities held by the bank. The idea here is to address the liquidity constraints that arose during the 2008 meltdown, when banks suffered widespread deposit withdrawals just as their access to wholesale funding dried up. This is where gold's Basel III treatment becomes more interesting. Under the proposed LIQUIDITY component of Basel III, gold is currently labeled with a 50% liquidity "haircut", which is the same haircut that is applied to equities and bonds. This implicitly assumes that gold cannot be easily converted into cash in a stressed period, which is exactly the opposite of what we observed during the crisis. It also requires the bank to maintain a much more stable source of funding in order to hold gold as an asset on its balance sheet. Fortunately, there is a strong chance that this liquidity definition for gold may be changed. The World Gold Council has in fact been lobbying the Basel Committee, the Federal Reserve and the FDIC on this issue as far back as 2009, and published a paper arguing that gold should enjoy the same liquidity profile as cash or AAA-government securities when calculating Basel III's LCR and NSFR ratios.20 And as it turns out, the liquidity definitions that will guide banks' LCR and NSFR calculations have not yet been finalized by the Basel Committee. The Basel III comment period that ended on October 22nd resulted in the deadline being pushed back to January 1, 2013, and given the recent delays with the US bank regulators, will likely be postponed even further next year. Of specific interest to us is how the Basel Committee will treat gold from a liquidity-risk perspective, and whether they decide to lower gold's liquidity "haircut" from 50% to something more reasonable, given gold's obvious liquidity superiority over that of equities and bonds. The only hint we've heard thus far has come from the World Gold Council itself, which suggested in an April 2012 research paper, and re-iterated on a recent conference call, that gold will be given a 15% liquidity "haircut", but we have not been able to confirm this with either the Basel Committee or the FDIC.21 In fact, all inquiries regarding gold's treatment made to those groups by ourselves, and by other parties that we have spoken with, have been met with silence. We get the sense that the regulators have no interest in stirring the pot by mentioning anything related to gold out of turn. Given our discussion above, we can understand why they may be hesitant to address the issue, and only time will tell if gold gets the proper liquidity treatment it deserves.
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| MAP 7 is available! The advent of a new world, by Michael Timmermans Posted: 30 Nov 2012 05:16 AM PST - Edito MAP7-Nov2012 -  CONTENTS : EDITO The advent of a new world (p.4) – ANTICIPATION The inevitable takeover of the food markets by state organisations between now and 2020 (p.5) – FUTURHEBDO The Sirens' song (p.12) – ANTICIPATION Germans and the people's referenda : Why the Germans will remain second class citizens (p.14) – COMMENT Quebec elections, 2012 : A direct consequence of the liberal Anglo-Saxon model's collapse and the open door towards independence (p.18) – ANTICIPATION South America 2012-2016 : Still uncertainty over US domination and regional independence (p.21) – BOOK EXCERPT The citizen and the State : A tragic maelstrom of history (p.27) Download MAP7 (free) -------------- EDITO : The Mayas were always right! If one accepts the idea that they announced the end of the world for 2012 (1), they could even have been remarkably accurate. Even though the world as we know it since 1945 has been crumbling with increasing visibility since the beginning of the world systemic crisis, the descendants of pre-Columbian populations willingly moved forwards on a new path. At the beginning of the 21st century this sub-continent, which is the object of such little media attention, increasingly resembles the new heir to the European ideals of independence, democracy and solidarity. Consequently, we thought it essential to give it a significant spot in this latest MAP edition. Over the last ten years, political leaders have materialized who have put themselves at the service of their people rather than private or overseas interests. The election of Hugo Chavez (2), Lula da Silva, Rafael Correa, or even Evo Morales at the beginning of this century marked a turning point for South America. Since then this region, previously controlled by the United States through military interventions or Bretton Woods, institutions, has been resolutely breaking away from its dominating Northern neighbour. Following the world economic crisis, Anglo-Saxon domination is losing its force, even in North America. At the end of each electoral period, the debates and challenges become a passion for South Americans, testifying to a democratic spark which makes one wonder. Whilst the European Union struggles to bring about to its democratic revolution and gives signs of a fallback into nationalism (3), the Latin Americans have set up a strong model of citizen participation (4) and wealth redistribution. Of course, there's still a long way to go and the continent won't be saved from the numerous global challenges. But, whilst a new world is in the process of being born, South America manages to advance a project linking its traditions, its history and its belief in the future. Download MAP7 (free) ----------- Notes: 1. Phew ! 2012 Doomsday date may be wrong, 20.10.12, ABC News 2. Elections whose transparence has been confirmed by all the international observers. Source: "Présidentielles au Venezuela : le risque de fraude est écarté", 06.10.12, Radio-Canada.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/International/2012/10/06/006-venezuela-fraude-ecarte-observateurs-samedi.shtml 3. Les poussées nationalistes en Europe : Ecosse, Catalogne et Flandre, 17.10.12, RTBF 4. La démocratie en Amérique latine résiste à la crise, 17.01.10, Le Figaro Download MAP7 (free) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Precious Metals Rise on More Quantitative Easing Talk Posted: 30 Nov 2012 05:15 AM PST Gold inched up on Friday, but prices saw their largest weekly drop since the beginning of November as the unease of the talks on the US fiscal cliff continue to weigh on sentiment. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Positive Outlook for Gold in 2013 Still Favored Posted: 30 Nov 2012 04:48 AM PST Analysts' median forecast for 2013 year-end gold price has risen from $1,832 as of end-September to $1,850 currently. This is about 7% higher than the current level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James Turk: “A lot of central bank gold is missing” Posted: 30 Nov 2012 04:45 AM PST Episode 77: GoldMoney's Andy Duncan speaks to James Turk, Chairman of GoldMoney and co-author of The Collapse of the Dollar (2004), about his claim that central banks are holding less in their ... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Outperforming Gold May Signal Inflationary Rally Posted: 30 Nov 2012 04:13 AM PST As we head into the end of the year, gold, silver and platinum look like they may be on the verge of a major breakout at $1,800 gold, $1725 platinum and $35 silver with silver outperforming. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 High Income Bonds To Insulate Against Rising Interest Rates Posted: 30 Nov 2012 04:02 AM PST By Bondsquawk: By Rom Badilla, CFA While interest rates remain low, the need for income remains high for investors as market uncertainty can create volatility in asset prices. That said and as the search for yield continues, the risk of rising interest rates remain in the back of investors' minds. Here are four higher yielding Investment Grade Bonds with Shorter Maturities that may insulate against price risk in a rising interest rate environment. (click to enlarge)
Break-Even numbers Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver price edging towards key resistance level Posted: 30 Nov 2012 04:00 AM PST After Wednesday's gold and silver price plunges - no doubt linked to options expiration - the metals have recovered. Gold was fairly stable over the course of yesterday's ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pound Drops to Five-Week Low Versus Euro on Debt-Crisis Optimism Posted: 30 Nov 2012 03:37 AM PST The pound fell to a five-week low against the euro as speculation European policy makers are taking steps to stem the region's debt crisis damped demand for the relative safety of U.K. assets... Read | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Michael Tellinger: African Ruins and the Annunaki Posted: 30 Nov 2012 03:22 AM PST Publisher and producer Michael Tellinger discussed his study of ancient ruins at the southern tip of Africa, which he believes were associated with a vanished civilization that ET visitors, the Annunaki, brought together over 200,000 years ago, when they came here to mine gold. The ruins, which he's investigated along with Johan Heine, consist of thousands of stone structures over a large area. The structures show evidence of their extreme antiquity through erosion and patina growth, he detailed. One of the most important ruins he referred to as "Adam's Calendar," a monolithic stone calendar that could mark time out by the day. from c2cvault: The Annunaki tinkered with human genetics to make their mine workers, Tellinger said, referencing the work of Zecharia Sitchin. Among the ruins are hexagonal shapes clustered together like honeycombs, which he speculated could have been used as cloning tanks. Further, he suggested that many of the structures, made out of stones that contain quartz, were used as energy devices to power the large settlements. By studying the area using aerial maps, Tellinger determined there were three great cities, some 60 x 60 miles each, one of which included Great Zimbabwe. Among the ruins, the first pyramids can be found, and details carved into some of the rocks include the Ankh symbol– thousands of years before the Egyptian civilization used it, he reported. ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold: Solution to the Banking Crisis...Eric Sprott & David Baker Posted: 30 Nov 2012 03:19 AM PST Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt was a pretty unexciting day in the gold market on Thursday. The tiny rally that developed around 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time, didn't amount to much...and got sold off the moment that Comex trading began in New York. At that point another tiny rally developed that peaked a few minutes after the 1:30 p.m. Eastern time Comex close...and then sold off a hair into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close. The gold price closed at $1,725.80 spot...up $6.00 from Wednesday. There was big gross volume yesterday...and once the last of the December contracts were subtracted out of that total, the net volume showed as 185,000 contracts...most of it in February...the new front month for gold.
The silver price was much more 'volatile'. After selling off about two bits in Far East trading...it, too, began to rally around 3:00 p.m. Hong Kong time. And, like gold, it got sold off shortly after Comex trading began. But the subsequent rally really developed some legs from there, before getting cut off at the knees going into the 10:00 a.m. Eastern time London p.m. gold fix. From there it more or less traded sideways into the close...although the high tick of the day....$34.52 spot...came about five minutes before the Comex trading session ended. The silver price closed at $34.27 spot...up 50 cents. Volume, net of December roll-overs, was pretty decent at 61,500 contracts, most of which was in March...the new front month for silver.
The dollar index opened at 80.30...and traded flat until about 3:30 p.m. in Hong Kong...before rolling over. The low price tick came at precisely 10:00 a.m. in New York...and the subsequent rally lasted two hours. About one minute before noon, the index began to sag a bit...and the dollar index closed the day at 80.21...down a whole 9 basis points. I suppose a case can be made for some co-relation between the dollar index and the gold price up until the 3:00 p.m. London gold fix...10:00 a.m. in New York. But it's a bit of a stretch after that. At the moment, it appears that the dollar index is holding onto the 80.00 mark by its proverbial fingernails.
The gold stocks gapped higher right at the open...but by noon [the HUI's nadir] they were down about a percent. After that they traded mostly sideways, but a late-day rally pulled the stocks higher...and the HUI finished the day up a tiny 0.20%. Once again the HUI chart over at ino.com was M.I.A....so I had to borrow this one from Kitco.
With silver up 50 cents, most of the silver stocks posted decent gains...but there were more than a few red arrows in the group I track. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 1.40%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME Daily Delivery Report for Day One of the December delivery month was a big surprise...at least in gold...as it showed that only 71 gold contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. I was expecting thousands of contracts...which would be normal. In silver, there were 571 contracts posted for delivery on Monday within the Comex-approved depositories. It came as no surprise to me that the two big short/issuers were JPMorgan with 358 from its proprietary in-house account...and the Bank of Nova Scotia with 142 contracts. The two biggest long/stoppers were JPMorgan in its customer account with 239 contracts...and Barclays with 163 contracts. The Issuers and Stoppers Report is definitely worth looking over...and the link is here. There were no reported changes in GLD...but it was the same old story over at SLV, as an authorized participant withdrew 725,937 troy ounces of silver...making it almost 9.5 million ounces withdrawn since the peak on November 9th. It was another big sales day over at the U.S. Mint...as they reported selling 11,000 ounces of gold eagles...1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and 75,000 silver eagles. With this latest sales figure, the U.S. Mint has now surpassed gold eagles sales for January...and that makes November the biggest gold eagles sales month of 2012 so far. And it was also a busy day at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday. They received 1,655,376 troy ounces of silver...and shipped 624,870 troy ounces of the stuff out the door. The link to that activity is here. The chart below is self-explanatory...and comes from a November 26th article by Doug Short over at the advisorperspectives.com Internet site. The article [with lots of other excellent charts] is headlined Median Household Incomes: The "Real" Story...and I found it in yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.
(Click on image to enlarge) Washington state reader S.A. sent me the 1-year Gold:Silver Ratio chart...and as you can see, we're testing new lows for this move down. Let's all join hands and pray that it continues.
(Click on image to enlarge) I have the usual number of stories for a weekday...and I hope you find the time to at least skim the parts of each that I've cut and paste below It just feels like the precious metal markets are wound up just about as tight as they can get...especially in silver Most Netherlands gold vaulted abroad 'because trading is easier'. Ned Naylor-Leyland: LBMA smoke signals on silver smell fishy. Peter Grandich: Space helmets on, Captain Video. Paul van Eeden says gold is (still) overvalued. Critical ReadsJohn Boehner: 'I'm Disappointed In Where We Are' — There's Been 'No Substantive Progress' In Two WeeksHouse Speaker John Boehner urged President Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats to put specific spending cuts on the table in negotiations over the fiscal cliff. "The Democrats have yet to get serious about real spending cuts" Boehner took a harsher tone toward the President than he has in recent days, jabbing Obama for scheduling campaign-style fiscal cliff events this instead of working on a deal with Republicans. This businessinsider.com story was posted on their Internet site just before lunch in New York yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for today's first story. The link is here. Fed's Dudley Sees Unacceptable Joblessness as More QE WeighedFederal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said he is focusing on "unacceptably high" joblessness as he considers whether the central bank should increase its asset purchases. "I will be assessing the employment and inflation outlook in order to determine whether we should continue Treasury purchases into 2013," Dudley, 59, said today in a speech at Pace University in New York. "The Fed will promote maximum employment and price stability to the greatest extent our tools permit, and we will stay the course." Fed officials are considering whether to step up record accommodation to offset the scheduled expiration next month of Operation Twist, a program swapping short-term Treasuries with longer-term debt. A "number" of Fed officials said at their policy meeting last month that the Fed next year may need to expand its monthly purchases of bonds, according to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's Oct. 23-24 gathering. This Bloomberg story was posted on their website mid-morning Mountain Standard time yesterday...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for sending it. The link is here. Starbucks' new $7 'Geisha' coffee is its priciest everStarbucks Corp. has started selling a specialty coffee that costs $7 for a 16-ounce "grande" cup, making it the company's priciest brew, as customers demand more premium products. The Costa Rica Finca Palmilera coffee costs $40 for a half- pound bag and $6 for a 12-ounce "tall" cup, Lisa Passe, a Starbucks spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. It's made from a rare, difficult-to-grow varietal called Geisha. The new coffee is available at only 46 locations in the U.S. Northwest with expensive Clover brewing machines. "We have loyal reserve customers who are interested in any opportunity to try something as rare and exquisite as the Geisha varietal," Passe said. "We are now offering more reserve coffees than ever before because of customer demand." This story showed up in The Washington Post on Wednesday...and I thank Marshall Angeles for finding it for us. The link is here. Two-thirds of millionaires left Britain to avoid 50p tax rateIn the 2009-10 tax year, more than 16,000 people declared an annual income of more than £1 million to HM Revenue and Customs. This number fell to just 6,000 after Gordon Brown introduced the new 50p top rate of income tax shortly before the last general election. The figures have been seized upon by the Conservatives to claim that increasing the highest rate of tax actually led to a loss in revenues for the Government. It is believed that rich Britons moved abroad or took steps to avoid paying the new levy by reducing their taxable incomes. This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early on Tuesday evening...and is another little something I borrowed from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here. Bank of England Says UK Banks Should Act Now to Raise CapitalBritish banks need to act now to bolster their defenses against financial shocks, as many have underestimated the cost of loans going sour and future fines for misconduct, the Bank of England said on Thursday. Underlining a growing sense of urgency about capital defenses, BoE Governor Mervyn King said that while the problem was "manageable", he wanted the banks' regulator to report back by March on what steps banks were taking, and warned that he did not want them to cut lending. "(Our) primary concern has been to ensure that UK banks have sufficient capital ... so that they are on a solid footing to support economic growth," King told a news conference. This Reuters story, filed from London, was posted on The New York Times website yesterday morning around 10:00 a.m. Eastern time...and I thank Phil Barlett for bringing it to our attention. The link is here. Greek deal frays as IMF threatens walk-out on debt buy-back impasseThe International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it would not disburse funds under its part of the EU-IMF package unless the eurozone delivers on a bond "buy-back" scheme, which is supposed to cut Greece's burden by 10pc of GDP and is deemed crucial for restoring long-term viability. If the IMF withdraws, Finland and Holland will also pull out of the programme. "This has become a really big problem," said Raoul Ruparel from Open Europe. The dispute comes as Moody's said the EU-IMF deal to unlock €44bn in bail-out payments to Athens merely papers over cracks and does little to alleviate Greece's "extreme economic and social fragility". "We believe that the country's debt burden remains unsustainable," it said. Moody's warned that there can be so lasting solution until EU states and official creditors agree to write down their holdings, now the lion's share. One of these days the bond holders are going to finally realize that they will take a 100% loss on all of Euroland's debt. This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard commentary was posted on The Telegraph's web site early yesterday evening GMT...and I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sending it along. It's definitely worth your time...and the link is here. Greeks turn to the forests for fuel as winter nearsAs austerity tightens its grip, many of the middle class find themselves in a desperate struggle to make ends meet. It is early Sunday. The sun has barely risen above the chestnut forest that lies somewhere near the crest of Mount Pelion, but loggers' pick-up trucks are already streaming through the muddy slush, their cargo bouncing in the back. Theirs are rich pickings, much in demand as winter envelopes the villages and towns of an increasingly poverty-stricken Greece. As they pass, they do not look up because many do not have permits to do what they have just done. From their new home a little further on, Yiannis Chadziathanasiou and Natasa Rempati watch the ebb and flow of this traffic. So, too, do the residents of Tsagarada, the picturesque hamlet where the sound of chainsaws pierces the morning air. "Things are getting desperate," says Chadziathanasiou, who clothed Greek celebrities before he moved to the countryside. "You hear all the time of people illegally clearing forests for firewood. It's horrible if you're a green like me." This story showed up in The Guardian on Wednesday evening GMT...and it's Roy Stephens second contribution to today's column. The link is here. After a bashing, Bank of Japan weighs 'big bang' war on deflationBank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was feeling the heat in February when he was summoned to parliament five times to explain what he planned to do to get Japan out of its deflation doldrums. Shirakawa had been opposed to another round of policy easing, though most members of his policy board were actually arguing for it at that time, according to sources familiar with the bank's internal discussions. The threat from lawmakers to withdraw the BOJ's charter granting its independence was what changed his mind, the sources said. So the central bank surprised the markets in February by setting an inflation target for the first time of 1 percent and announcing a $122 billion increase in its asset-buying program. Those five days of intense grilling and the ones that have followed have been among the most intense ever faced by a Japanese central bank governor. Shirakawa has been summoned 29 times so far in 2012, a decade-long record. And the pressure is having a big impact: it was the catalyst for a radical rethink in central bank policy. The full effect of that pivot is expected after April when Shirakawa is due to step down, according to more than a dozen interviews with those involved in the process. This longish Reuters story, filed from Tokyo yesterday, is a must read...and I plucked it from a GATA release. The link is here. Four King World News Blogs/Audio InterviewsThe first blog is with Dan Norcini...and it's headlined "Fed to Commit to a Staggering $1 Trillion of Q.E. for 2013". Next comes this blog with Caesar Bryan. It's entitled "What Japan is Going to Do to Light the Gold Market on Fire". Lastl | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Myth: Silver is Super Volatile and Mega Manipulated Posted: 30 Nov 2012 03:11 AM PST The "Silver is Super Volatile and It Must Mean Manipulation" Myth from daytradeshow: ~TVR | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Update: Silver Questions 11.29.12 Posted: 30 Nov 2012 03:10 AM PST brotherjohnf: Silver Update 11/29/12 Silver Questions ~TVR |
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