saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Correction in Gold & Silver Stocks Nearing End
- Clifton letter carrier charged with stealing $20,000 worth of coins from Hazel Street
- New York Federal Reserve Building Believed To Be Sitting On World's Largest Stockpile Of Gold
- Clowns and Crowds
- London Trader – The LBMA Is A Massive Ponzi Scheme
- Gold – Inflation hedge or something more?
- GOLD'S FINAL LEG DOWN IN PROGRESS
- Riverstone Resources to Combine with Blue Gold Mining
- Gold Is Not Back In Favor Yet…
- World Gold Council Publishes Q3 Investment Statistics
- Institutional Investors 'Losing Enthusiasm' for Bullion
- China’s Days Of Coming To Gold’s Rescue May Be Numbered
- Gold Could See Deeper Downside as Uptrend Remains
- Europe Crisis Spurs Shift of Gold to Asia: Deutsche Bank
- Izzy Friedman: What Now For the Price of Silver?...with an introduction by Ted Butler
- John Embry: Gold equities opportunities better-than-ever
- Fort Knox, an Impregnable Monument to Security Theater
- Gold and Silver Market morning, October 18, 2012
- Links 10/18/12
- It’s Time for a Tax to Kill High Frequency Trading
- Fed Policy: Good for Gold but Bad for the Economy
- Kirsty Hogg Interviews David Morgan - Facebook Group Mailbag Questions
- Real Silver Highs
- The First 12 Hours of a US Dollar Collapse *7 min. video*
- Two Reasons Why the Gold Market is Under Pressure
- Yanis Varoufakis: The Euro Crisis as a Spectacular Political Failure
| Correction in Gold & Silver Stocks Nearing End Posted: 18 Oct 2012 11:42 AM PDT We expected a correction after the gold and silver shares ran into predictable resistance that coincided with October seasonal resistance. That was predictable. Now we are 19 days into the correction and we see some stealth signs of strength. |
| Clifton letter carrier charged with stealing $20,000 worth of coins from Hazel Street Posted: 18 Oct 2012 09:23 AM PDT And this i why I don't want the US mint to mail me anything: Clifton letter carrier charged with stealing $20,000 worth of coins from Hazel Street resident (link)  CLIFTON - A Clifton letter carrier has been arrested and charged with stealing a package containing $20,000 worth of coins from a Hazel Street resident. On Oct. 5, almost one year after the victim reported the coins missing to the U.S. Postal Service, letter carrier Stephen Pavlick, 57, of Nutley, was arrested and charged with third degree theft and third degree forgery, said Clifton Police Department spokesman detective Sgt. Robert Bracken. Pavlick delivered the mail to Hazel Street residences as well as surrounding areas, Bracken said. The victim, a resident of Hazel Street, ordered the coins from a broker in California shortly before Christmas last year, Bracken said. When he did not receive the coins on time, the buyer contacted the broker in California who informed him the coins had been shipped and a return receipt slip had been signed by someone who accepted the delivery, Bracken said. The victim contacted the U.S. Postal Service, which with the help of the Clifton Police Department, investigated the incident. Early this month, Pavlick was charged with the crime after investigators determined he had signed for the coins. Bracken said the coins have not yet been recovered and the investigation continues. |
| New York Federal Reserve Building Believed To Be Sitting On World's Largest Stockpile Of Gold Posted: 18 Oct 2012 08:49 AM PDT New York Federal Reserve Building Believed To Be Sitting On World's Largest Stockpile Of Gold from moxnewsd0tc0m: ~TVR |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2012 08:45 AM PDT Watch the full Keiser Report E355 on Thursday. from russiatoday: ~TVR |
| London Trader – The LBMA Is A Massive Ponzi Scheme Posted: 18 Oct 2012 08:10 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: On July 20th, the 'London Trader' told King World News, "The LBMA's price fixing scheme is coming to an end." Gold quickly rose $200 after that interview. Today the source now tells KWN the LBMA has, "… incredibly large quantities of paper silver and gold being traded each day, but the real problem here is there is virtually nothing to back this up." The source also said, "This is all part of the LBMA Ponzi scheme." King World News has now released a total of three written interviews with the London Trader. This is the third in a series of blockbuster interviews which uncovers what is happening behind the scenes in the gold and silver markets. The source also discussed the incredible tightness in the physical silver market. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Gold – Inflation hedge or something more? Posted: 18 Oct 2012 07:23 AM PDT |
| GOLD'S FINAL LEG DOWN IN PROGRESS Posted: 18 Oct 2012 07:04 AM PDT In my last article I warned traders that markets, especially gold, were at risk of a profit-taking event. This was due to the fact that the dollar had found an intermediate bottom and begun a counter trend rally. I think the second stage of that rally is probably beginning today. I'm looking for the dollar index to test the downward sloping 200 day moving average before rolling over and continuing the secular trend.  This should drive gold down into a final intermediate degree bottom. My best guess is that we will see a rather mild intermediate decline, probably only testing be 38% Fibonacci retracement.  Since gold is already on day 15 of its daily cycle, and that cycle normally lasts 18-28 days, we should get a final bottom sometime in the middle to latter part of next week. If one were trying to time the exact bottom you could either buy when gold tags $1694 (the 38% Fibonacci retracement level), or when the dollar index tags the 200 day moving average. Either one of those events should be close enough to the bottom where any further drawdown isn't going to be very significant or last more than two or three days. I expected the next intermediate cycle to be every bit as violent as the last one, and gold should make its first test of the all-time highs at or slightly above $1900 sometime before the end of the year. Because of the extreme undervaluation levels that were reached as the CRB put in its three year cycle low, mining stocks should be the big winners again during this next intermediate cycle. Just as I was expecting the HUI exploded out of that July bottom racking up a 38% gain in a little over two months. I think we will see something very similar during the next intermediate cycle and miners will test the all-time highs before the end of the year.  The last C-wave that ran from the spring of 2009 till it topped in September 2011 was the C-wave of silver. Silver vastly outperformed all other areas in the precious metals group. This C-wave is going to be the C-wave of the miners. It's already started with an initial 38% rally, and I expect by the time this C-wave tops in mid to late 2014 we will have witnessed a 300% to 500% gain in the mining indexes. Sometime next week traders will get their opportunity to jump on board what will almost certainly be an amazing ride over the next year and a half to two years.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Riverstone Resources to Combine with Blue Gold Mining Posted: 18 Oct 2012 06:52 AM PDT Partnership creates well-funded company with proven team to drive gold exploration and near-term production at properties in West Africa
Under the plan of arrangement, Blue Gold shareholders will receive 0.801 of a Riverstone share for each Blue Gold share. This exchange ratio reflects the market price of the Riverstone shares and the Blue Gold shares based on the volume-weighted average prices of Blue Gold and Riverstone shares on the TSX Venture Exchange ("TSX-V") for the 20 trading days ended on October 17, 2012, resulting in a basic equity value for the transaction of $30.3 million. On completion of the transaction, Blue Gold shareholders will hold 30% of the pro forma outstanding shares of Riverstone, on a fully-diluted basis. It is estimated that there will be 178.3 million basic shares outstanding upon closing. Riverstone is currently the owner and operator of the Karma Project, an advanced stage gold development project and three other earlier stage exploration projects collectively covering more than 2,000 km2 of highly prospective ground in Burkina Faso. With this transaction, Riverstone will expand its successful exploration, engineering and development team with Blue Gold's highly regarded technical, exploration and capital markets team to create a strong West African mine developer and explorer with a cash balance of approximately $18 million. "Our merger with Blue Gold is truly complementary. It creates a well-funded, well-structured company with expanded expertise as we progress our flagship Karma Project through feasibility and launch an aggressive exploration campaign at Liguidi and our other portfolio projects," states Dwayne Melrose, President and CEO of Riverstone. "Our combined entity offers investors and employees a unique opportunity to take part in the growth of a 'best in class' exploration company and the advancement of our promising properties, under the guidance of an experienced, proven leadership team." "Together, Riverstone and Blue Gold are much stronger than the sum of their parts. Combined, the companies have the expertise and access to capital necessary to accelerate expansion and development of Riverstone's exceptional gold properties in a mining-friendly jurisdiction in West Africa," states Mark O'Dea, President and CEO of Blue Gold. "We examined over 100 projects and companies during the past 18 months looking for opportunities to optimize value for Blue Gold's shareholders. A merger with Riverstone provides our collective shareholders the opportunity to participate in the exploration of an incredible land package in a relatively unexplored jurisdiction with near-term exposure to gold production." Benefits to Blue Gold Shareholders:
TRANSACTION DETAILS Disclosure: Riverstone Resources is a Vulture Bargain Candidate of Interest (VBCI) and is our fully fledged Vulture Bargain #3. Members of the GGR team are actively accumulating shares of RVS.V or RVREF and continue to hold a speculative long position in the company. |
| Gold Is Not Back In Favor Yet… Posted: 18 Oct 2012 05:59 AM PDT Despite the decline this past week, gold seems to be regaining favor with global investors, as just a week earlier it had been flirting with the $1,800 an ounce mark. Quite a change from the sentiment in early summer when some investors were questioning whether the yellow metal's decade-long bull run was coming to a close. The rebound in investor sentiment toward gold, of course, coincided with the launching of open-ended QE3 (or QE infinity) by the Federal Reserve. Since then gold has "barely paused for breath. It has, as discussed previously, touched all-time highs in terms of euros or Swiss francs. QE3 certainly seemed to worry some investors. These people moving into gold are concerned about things such as competitive devaluations and the debasement of currencies in an attempt to pay back enormous debt loads with a cheaper currency. This road – currency debasement – eventually leads to inflation most believe. So it is really is not surprising that, according to UBS, investors in exchange traded funds raised their holdings by 158 tons since the beginning of August to a record 2,681 tons of bullion recently. Many of the world's best investors are in agreement with the average person putting his or her money into gold. The list of names is impressive: George Soros, John Paulson, Ray Dalio and Bill Gross. Ray Dalio, founder and chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates – the world's largest macro hedge fund, told CNBC viewers recently: "Gold should be part of everybody's portfolio. We have a situation now when you have too much debt. Too much debt leads to the printing of money to make it easier to service. All of those things mean that some portion [of a portfolio] should be in gold." Dalio's conclusion? "Only gold and real assets would survive." All of this positive macro news about gold has managed to influence the gold chart too. According to asset manager Blackrock, "the gold chart has turned decidedly bullish." Blackrock was speaking about the so-called "golden cross". That occurs when the 50-day moving average moves above the 200-day moving average. Blackrock noted that the last time gold's chart looked so good was shortly after the Federal Reserve announced QE1, the first round of money printing. It said that if gold does the same thing it did back then, the price of the precious metal will hit $2,400 an ounce by next summer. Of course, macro factors like Chinese and Indian demand for physical gold will play a major role in whether we reach those lofty levels. While I am bullish on gold longer term the chart patterns, volume and sentiment for both gold and silver are overwhelmingly bearish looking for the next couple weeks. I sharp pullback is likely to unfold before they take another run at resistance and breakout to new highs.
If you would like to learn more about trading and get my trading alerts visit www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen |
| World Gold Council Publishes Q3 Investment Statistics Posted: 18 Oct 2012 05:34 AM PDT Gold hovered on Thursday, maintaining gains from the last two days and watching for new stimulus from a European Union summit after little reaction to news from China that showed the economy's seventh quarter of GDP contraction. |
| Institutional Investors 'Losing Enthusiasm' for Bullion Posted: 18 Oct 2012 05:20 AM PDT Spot market gold bullion prices fell towards $1,740 per ounce Thursday lunchtime in London, 0.8% down on the week so far, while most European stock indexes also ticked lower ahead of today's European leaders' summit in Brussels. |
| China’s Days Of Coming To Gold’s Rescue May Be Numbered Posted: 18 Oct 2012 05:10 AM PDT |
| Gold Could See Deeper Downside as Uptrend Remains Posted: 18 Oct 2012 04:30 AM PDT |
| Europe Crisis Spurs Shift of Gold to Asia: Deutsche Bank Posted: 18 Oct 2012 03:10 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt was a nothing sort of day in the gold market yesterday. The high, such as it was, came in the early afternoon Hong Kong time...and the low occurred just before [or at] the London p.m. gold fix. From there, the price rallied ten bucks, but faded into the close of electronic trading. Nothing much to see here. Gold finished trading on Wednesday at $1,749.90 spot...up $1.60 on the day. Volume was in the range of 126,000 contracts.
It was somewhat the same story in silver, as the metal traded within about a dime of the $33 mark right up until about 11:10 a.m. in New York. Then the metal tacked on about two bits in an hour, before trading sideways into the 5:15 p.m. electronic close. Looking at the New York Spot Silver [Bid] chart on its own, it appears that silver's high tick...$33.38 spot...came at the 1:30 p.m Comex close. Silver finished the Wednesday trading session in New York up 24 cents to $33.20 spot. Volume was around 27,500 contracts...about the same as Tuesday.
The dollar index opened at 79.22...and went into a slow, gentle decline to its nadir...which was 78.92 around 11:30 a.m. in New York. The index went on to close just off that low at 79.08...down 14 basis points on the day. Nothing to see here, either.
The gold stocks followed the gold price right up until around 12:30 p.m. in New York...and the price activity after that really didn't have much to do with what the gold price did for the rest of the New York trading session. But when all was said and done...another rally into the close took the HUI up 1.03% on the day.
It was a very mixed bag in the silver equities yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up another 1.23%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 26 gold and 1 silver contract were posted for delivery on Friday within the Comex-approved depositories. Month-to-date there have been 6,930 gold contracts delivered...along with 441 silver contracts. The CME still shows that there are about 250 gold and 75 silver contracts open for potential delivery in October...so you can see that the bulk of the October deliveries are already done. There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV...and no sales report from the U.S. Mint, either. There was a good deal of activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Tuesday. They didn't report receiving any silver, but 1,177,150 troy ounces were shipped out for parts unknown. The big withdrawal was from Brink's, Inc...and the link to all of Tuesday's activity is here. I don't have that many stories for you today, which is fine by me...and by you as well, I'm sure. The fact of the matter is that the obscene and grotesque short positions in silver and gold still remains unresolved. John Embry: Gold equities opportunities better-than-ever. Fort Knox, an Impregnable Monument to Security Theater. Bart Chilton: "Texas Hold 'Em—Time to Fold 'Em". David Walker: It's a 'Fiscal Abyss,' Not Fiscal Cliff ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeFormer Comptroller Walker: It's a 'Fiscal Abyss,' Not Fiscal CliffThe overwhelming majority of Americans feel fiscal reform should take priority this election season, though few expect it to happen, said David Walker, former Comptroller General of the United States and current CEO of the Comeback America Initiative, which promotes fiscal reform and responsibility.  Citigroup's Pandit and the Selective Use of FactsWhat Citigroup Inc. has always needed is a leader who will be straight about the company's finances, without spinning the facts. For that reason, the departure of Vikram Pandit as chief executive officer is progress. To see the sort of games that Citigroup has been playing the past few years, check how the bank presented the results in its third-quarter earnings release on Oct. 15, the day before Pandit resigned. Under generally accepted accounting principles, the company said it had net income of $468 million for the quarter. On a non-GAAP basis, though, Citigroup said its earnings were $3.3 billion. One of the items Citigroup excluded was a $2.9 billion loss related to selling its stake in its brokerage joint venture with Morgan Stanley. (MS) This is about as funny as you will ever see accounting humor get, and here's why. This rather short op-ed piece by Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Weil was posted on their Internet site early yesterday morning...and is worth your time. I thank Manitoba reader Ulrike Marx for sharing it with us...and the link is here.  Large Cash Transactions Banned In MexicoOutgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon has signed into law a ban on large cash transactions. The ban will take effect in about 90 days and it is part of a broader effort to control monetary flows within the country. Under the law, a Specialized Unit in Financial Analysis operating within the Attorney General's Office will be created to investigate financial operations "that are related to resources of unknown origin." For real estate transactions, cash payments of more than a half million pesos ($38,750) will be forbidden and, for automobiles or items like jewelry, art, and lottery tickets, cash payments of more than 200,000 pesos ($15,500) will be forbidden. The law carries a minimum penalty of five years in prison. This short story showed up at Forbes yesterday. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it. Even if you don't read the article itself, the photo of $207 million in cash, make it worth your while to click on the link...which is here.  Paul Volcker: U.K. bank reforms will be hard to achieveMr. Volcker, an architect of banking reform proposals in the United States, said separating the two types of banking would be "effective to a considerable extent" in allowing risky parts of banks to fail without damaging the main business. But he told a parliamentary inquiry on banking standards that putting the theory into practice was not easy. "Based on the American experience, the concept that different subsidiaries of a single commercial banking organisation can maintain total independence either in practice or in public perception is difficult to sustain," Volcker told the Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards. Banking reforms in the United States, Britain and Europe all require "careful regulatory definitions and supervisory oversight" to ensure functions are kept separate, he said. This story was posted on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday evening BST...and I thank Donald Sinclair for sending it me in the wee hours of this morning. The link is here.  New laws will criminalise LIBOR manipulationBritain will change the law to reform the Libor interest rate that was rigged by Barclays and other banks, the Treasury said on Wednesday. Barclays was fined a record £290m in June for manipulation of the London Interbank Offered Rate, a benchmark used as a basis for pricing products like home loans around the world worth over $300 trillion. Martin Wheatley, managing director of the Financial Services Authority, published recommendations last month for reforming the setting, governance and regulation of Libor. The Treasury said this afternoon that it will insert some of the recommendations into a financial bill now in the final stages of approval in parliament. "The Government's changes to legislation will ensure that those that attempt to manipulate Libor face the full force of the law," UK financial services minister Greg Clark said in a statement. I'll bet some big money that no one ever goes to jail over this...now, or in the future. This story was posted on The Telegraph website early yesterday afternoon BST...and it's the first of three in a row from Roy Stephens. The link is here.  Paul Tucker: 'worst may still be ahead' for U.K. banksThe "worst may still be ahead" for Britain's banking sector, according to the Bank of England's deputy governor, as he warned that bank balance sheets were still not strong enough to withstand the "end-of-the-world risks" that still existed. Paul Tucker told an audience at the British Bankers' Association: "There is a tangible probability – not a high probability – that the worst may still be ahead", and called on lenders to hold more capital. The frontrunner to take over from Sir Mervyn King as governor of the Bank also called for an end to the get-rich-quick culture of the City. Mr Tucker said that bank bosses should be partly paid in debt linked to financial performance to ensure they have a strong interest in their company's fortunes. The guy talks the talk for the moment...but if appointed, will he walk the walk? This story showed up on the telegraph.co.uk Internet site early yesterday afternoon BST...and I thank Roy for his second story in a row. The link is here.  'Devastating Impact' - Euro Exit by Southern Nations Could Cost 17 Trillion EurosA Greek euro exit on its own would have a relatively minor impact on the world economy, but if it causes a chain reaction leading to the departure of other southern European nations from the single currency, the economic impact on the world would be devastating, a German study warned on Wednesday. Economic research group Prognos, in a study commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung, estimated that euro exits by Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy would wipe a total of €17.2 trillion ($22.3 trillion) off worldwide growth by 2020. The researchers arrived at a particularly bleak assessment because they didn't just calculate the losses of creditors who had lent money to the crisis-hit nations. They also analyzed the possible impact of a euro collapse on economic growth in the 42 most important industrial and emerging economies that make up more than 90 percent of the world economy. This story was posted on the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and it's Roy Stephens' third and final offering in today's column. The link is here.  If the law won't stop market rigging, what can we do?GATA's friend and researcher R.M. writes today from Europe: "If the U.S. judiciary deemed protection of the nation's currency or similar national interests (such as stable financial markets and oil prices) as justification not to prosecute a cartel's war against gold by federal authorities, foreign governments, and their agents, could anti-trust law ever be brought to bear against such activity in our lifetimes? "What I'm asking essentially is: What is the Achilles' heel of gold market collusion that would provoke enforcement in a compromised judicial system?" Chris Powell replied to R.M. as follows... This GATA release by Chris Powell contains extensive links...and will keep you off the streets for the rest of the day. The link is here.  Metals markets are a bluff and silver isn't there, London trader tells King World NewsIn the third and final segment of his interview this week, the London trader source of King World News says the London metals market has become a Ponzi scheme, that real silver especially is unavailable right now despite the huge volumes seemingly traded, that the Comex metals market is all about bluffing longs out of their positions, and that the commitment-of-traders reports on the metal futures markets are "groomed" and unreliable. "Groomed" and unreliable...hmmm. If the COT Report [and the Bank Participation Report] was really groomed, they wouldn't show this massive short position held by the 'Big 4' traders...or show that JPMorgan, the Bank of Nova Scotia[?] and HSBC are short grotesque quantities of silver in the Comex futures market. I thank Chris Powell for the headline and the introductory paragraph...and the link to the KWN blog is here. Izzy Friedman: What Now For the Price of Silver?...with an introduction by Ted Butler Posted: 18 Oct 2012 03:10 AM PDT  It has been quite some time since my good friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, has written something about silver. Devastated by the loss of his wonderful wife of 56 years, Gabriella, Izzy withdrew from his daily silver market observation and our telephone conversations in order to restructure his life around family and travel and contemplation. We have started to talk more frequently and he agreed to write something. |
| John Embry: Gold equities opportunities better-than-ever Posted: 18 Oct 2012 03:10 AM PDT  Gold equities have never presented investors with a better opportunity than they do today, says Sprott Asset Management's John Embry. Speaking on Mineweb.com's Gold Weekly podcast, the asset manager's chief investment strategist, said that this view is based on his view of where the price of gold is likely to go in the future. Adding that, while all gold equities are likely to move, junior gold stocks have been beaten down significantly and are "much cheaper" relative to their senior counterparts. "If you have the right quality junior (and you've got to be selective because there's a lot of junk in this sector as you know), but if you've got the right quality junior, I think you are talking five to 10 baggers easy." |
| Fort Knox, an Impregnable Monument to Security Theater Posted: 18 Oct 2012 03:10 AM PDT  During the panic of 1792, the Bank of North America tried to stave off a run by having employees "carry its specie busily to and from the cellar in order to give a magnified notion of what it had," historian Bray Hammond wrote. Bank managers "ostentatiously brought in deposits of gold and silver that had unostentatiously been carried out a little while before." The show of specie reassured jittery customers, saving the bank from failure. As a young clerk in Iowa during the panic of 1907, Hammond recalled employing exactly the same dodge: heaping impressively large sacks of low-value coin in plain view and ostentatiously counting it to give the impression of overflowing vaults. |
| Gold and Silver Market morning, October 18, 2012 Posted: 18 Oct 2012 03:00 AM PDT |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2012 02:29 AM PDT Police arrest man armed with sawfish bill ABC (YY). Only in Australia. Daddy Longlegs Discovered In Laos Has 13-Inch Leg Span Huffington Post (Carol B) Chinese growth slows to 7.4% in Q3 Financial Times Merkel criticises 'snail's pace' of Greek reforms Telegraph Euro Exit by Southern Nations Could Cost 17 Trillion Euros Der Spiegel. So Greece will not be permitted to exit, and will be pounded into something that bears no resemblance to a civilized society. Turkey-Syria on the Brink of War OilPrice. This is a workmanlike overview; I'm sure NC readers can add to the discussion in comments. El-Erian Cautions Romney on China Stance Bloomberg. I'm surprised there wasn't more reaction to this in the media commentary. But I assume most political observers see this an empty promise. Plus as many commentators have pointed out, the renminbi just isn't that undervalued any more, see Against a Sea of Enemies: China as Currency Manipulator, Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser NYT Decides to Start Blaming Medicare and Social Security for Bad Weather Dean Baker Congressman and Chairman of the House's Homeland Security Committee: Terrorist Threat Worse Now than Before 9/11 George Washington. Well, of course security threats are worse! We are within weeks of an election! The libertarian/marijuana conspiracy to swing the election David Sirota, Salon (Mark Ames) Mind The Binder ThePhoenix. The real backstory of those binders. Former Sen. George McGovern 'no longer responsive' NBC (Lambert) Bloomberg Starts 'Super PAC,' Seeking National Influence New York Times (furzy mouse) Ahead of gay marriage votes, advocates skeptical of polling Reuters (Carol B). Not sure I buy this. The people that I've run into who oppose gay marriage are awfully unabashed in saying so. Bigger point is survey results of any kind are very sensitive to how the question is phrased, so "Do you favor/oppose gay marriage?" is most assuredly NOT the same question as "Will you vote for/against Proposition XYZ [which legalizes gay marriage]?". Scott's Story and the Election Nicholas Kristof, New York Times (furzy mouse). What is going on in our society? Is this just more organized trolling, the Internet version of brownshirts, or is there a real decay in the zeitgeist? Boy, do I wish I'd been able to get permanent residence in Oz…. Volcker criticises UK banking reforms Financial Times Poor Market Conditions will See 180 Solar Manufacturers Fail by 2015 OilPrice Foreclosure-Suit Funds Shifted Wall Street Journal * * * lambert here: Mission elapsed time: T + 40 and counting* Well, I got a job and tried to put my money away But I got debts that no honest man can pay. –Bruce Springsteen, Atlantic City CA. Air war: "[Sacramento's] region's media market currently ranks 8th in the nation for political ad buys and related filings. viewers are hearing arguments for and against candidates running in competitive races for congressional seats. The region's media market reaches parts of four high-profile House races." CO. Marijuana legalization: "[Gary] Johnson's supporters are deftly leveraging all hoopla around the marijuana initiative to sharpen their candidate's appeal and message to disaffected Democrats. Is this a brilliant GOP conspiracy theory? In other words, is the libertarian candidate deliberately trying to help Romney, as Obama partisans will no doubt grouse? Almost certainly not, as Johnson is no fan of Romney. Nobody should be surprised that having been betrayed, many of those D-leaning voters who supported Obama in 2008 specifically because of his position on the Drug War may look for an alternative in 2012." (David Sirorta; MA). FL. Greens: "Only two candidates are on the ballot for FL State House in Jacksonville: R incumbent Lake Ray and Green Party nominee Karen Morian. Morian has been endorsed by the Florida AFL-CIO, Duval Ds, Jacksonville Young Ds, Florida NOW, and other influential groups." Weird. … IA. Food: "Outbursts of 'you guys are cowards,' 'tin soldiers,' and 'corporate shills' were shouted from nearly 30 Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement (CCI) members who appealed for the EPC to prevent large-scale commercial livestock operations from applying liquid swine manure on land where the current crop has been harvested and will be planted to soybeans during the next crop season." …. Buyer's remorse: "A full-page Romney campaign ad in today's Cedar Rapids Gazette takes the form of an open letter from 13 Iowans who say they voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 but regret their choice and won't do so again in 2012." Ouch! LA. Oil: "About 565,000 pounds of oiled material from the Deepwater Horizon spill was brought to the surface by Hurricane Isaac, more than had been collected in eight months before the storm, the state's coastal protection agency said Wednesday. Overall, about 4.9 million barrels of oil spilled into the gulf during the Deepwater Horizon disaster and 1 million barrels are still unaccounted for." (Apparently, a barrel of oil is around 300 pounds.)= ME. Ladies of negotiable affection: "Police say [Mark Strong, the man accused of booking clients at the Pura Vida Studio owned by Wright[ helped run Wright's alleged side prostitution business and helped video-tape her clients. Prosecutors say they have 100 hours of video evidence." IIRC, solicitation is a misdemeanor. Is blackmail a felony? … Ladies of negotiable affection: "Three police detectives are working full time going through the evidence seized in the investigation of an alleged prostitution business, with the probe expected to continue for a few more months, increasing the overtime expense for the town." …. Corruption: "[Stephen Bowen, ME's education commissioner,] was preparing an aggressive reform [sic] drive to dramatically expand and deregulate online education in ME. 'I have no 'political' staff who I can work with to move this stuff through the process,' he emailed [Patricia Levesque]. Levesque replied [that FL Gov. Jeb Bush's Foundation for Excellence in Education] would be happy to suggest policies, write laws and gubernatorial decrees, and develop strategies to ensure they were implemented." NC. Swing states: "However, Obama has not stepped foot in the state since his convention drew to a close nearly six weeks ago. After he touches down in IA and NH this week, every other battleground state will have gotten some in-person Obama post-convention love except for the Tar Heel state." NY. Fracking: A New York coalition, the landowner Advocates of New York, is scheduling a pro-drilling rally on Oct. 15 in Albany. It is being supported by the 77,000-member Joint Landowners Coalition of NY." (Cf. NC 2012-10-16. I wondered who printed those T-shirts…. More, much more.) … Fracking: "[Kirsten] Gillibrand, a former congresswoman seeking her first full-term in the U.S. Senate, said hydrofracking should not be allowed until chemicals used in the drilling process are disclosed and studied for health effects, lest they find their way into drinking water supplies. She also said plans must be in place for dealing with wastewater, which may become naturally irradiated, and sealing abandoned wells." … Police state: "If you're told to do something, do it without asking the reason" (video). OH. Fracking: "[Youngstown City Councillor Annie] Gillam says the city has four thousand acres of land and is looking at leasing a tenth of that; which would raise two-to-three million dollars. 'People are getting around $5-thousand an acre; but it could be more. I understand some Utica shale deposits are getting close to eight thousand.'" Well, I'm sure that covers the externalities! … Early voting: "The state's elections chief says close to 407,000 Ohioans have already voted in the key presidential battleground." TX. Pipelines: "'This is not about the money,' said [Julia Trigg Crawford], who notes that TransCanada's final offer of $20,000 amounts to less than $1 a day over 60 years, less time than her family has been on the land. 'This is about the right of a landowner to control what happens on their land." WY. Coal: University of Wyoming officials sped up the removal of a controversial anti-coal sculpture because of the furor it caused [with angry state legislators, energy industry donors and trade group representatives], but chose to tell the public the removal was as scheduled and because of water damage, emails show." Well, no harm done. I'm sure the public assumed the university administrators were lying anyhow. Outside baseball. Fracking: "[Hearst Media banned] all comments using the word fracking [which] effectively prevents a large segment of the populace from exercising their First Amendment right. That is convenient for industry." … Food stamps: "Calculating someone's eligibility for food assistance takes into consideration many factors: income, medical expenses, utility costs and other amounts. For the first time in many years federal government opted to change that utility deduction. So for many people, that means they'll get about $35 less a month, starting in November." Because socialism! The trail. Gaslighting: "A suspected terrorist parked a van packed with what he thought* was a 1,000-pound bomb next to the Federal Reserve building in Lower Manhattan and tried to detonate it Wednesday morning before he was arrested in a terror sting operation, authorities said. [* No doubt because his Stasi handlers told him that."] … Walmart moms: "'Some of the points he was making, I had to compare to the last four years,' one woman said. 'We had a lot of hope, but I was left thinking, 'Hmm, I'm not sure the next four years are going to be much different.' 'I was actually comforted,' another woman elaborated. 'Obama knows what went wrong, and he kind of knows how to fix it.'" "Actually…" …. White males undecideds: "'I've been online checking them out, and I honestly think they both suck. They'll lie to get your vote,' [Larry Bushnell] said." … Losing the political class: Check out this photo. You see photos like this of Romney all the time; very rarely of Obama. … Polls: "Obama's chances of winning the Electoral College were 64.8% as of Tuesday's FiveThirtyEight forecast, down slightly from 66.0% on Monday. The forecast will not yet reflect any effects from Tuesday night's debate." (Nate Silver). Obama vs. Romney II. Romney to Jeremy: "When you come out in 2014 — I presume I'm going to be president — I'm going to make sure you get a job. (Chuckles.) Thanks, Jeremy. Yeah, you bet." Empathy! … Obama to Jeremy: "Now, does that mean you are not struggling? Absolutely not." Empathy! … Jeremy speaks: "'No, I think I made a decision,' he said. Epstein declined to reveal which candidate will be getting his vote." Ha. … Video: Horses vs. protesters at Hoftra (DCBlogger). Word of the day: Fleague. … Memes: "Binders full of women" #3 of "Top 4 Rising Search Terms" during the debate, says Google. … Memes: "A woman leading an opposition party was handcuffed to a chair for crashing the rich people's debate but BIIIIIIINDERS!" … Memes: "On this empty binder issue, it's the president who has the empty binder …" Na ga happen. … Memes: "Whether such Internet memes have any effect on how people will vote is unclear, but there's no doubt the online buzz will ensure Romney's off-the-cuff remark continues to be a topic for water-cooler discussions in the aftermath of the debate." … Undecided voters: "One of the stupider things that people say about undecided voters is that they're stupid. But although they may follow politics less closely than other voters, they're not somehow devoid of values, beliefs, and attitudes that bear directly on politics. So we shouldn't be surprised that last night's questions were something more than anodyne, and may have reflected honest and meaningful opinions" (more). … Undecided voters: "But what voters in the room made of it is anyone's guess. They managed to get in only about half as many questions as Crowley had predicted, and in the end neither of the candidates seemed to be paying much attention to any of them." … Media critique: "[W]hoever coached the Governor clearly did not look at the transcripts from September 12, where the president said: 'No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for. Today, we mourn four more Americans who represent the very best of the United States of America. We will not waver in our commitment to see that justice is done for this terrible act.'" Well, I read the transcript and — to be fair, in typically mushy and prolix Obama fashion — the paragraph Al Jazeera quoted is nine paragraphs away from the point at the beginning where Obama called the Libyan embassy "an attack" (and not, as he easily might have done, "an act of terrorism." So Obama sure buried the lead. Pretty odd! (Goddard disagrees. Get the transcript. If nine paragraphs between "attack" and "terror" doesn't do it for you, how about ~550 words?) To me, the whole episode (just like the binder flap) looks a lot more like the narrators in the political class giving Obama a collective reach-around than anything else. Not that there's anything wrong with that. The Romney. One big company town: "[ROMNEY:] whether you agree with me or you agree with President Obama, or whatever your political view, I hope, I hope you pass those along to your employees." * Slogan of the day: I Love The Blue Sky of The Homeland! * * * Antidote du jour (furzy mouse). This is a Red-shanked Douc Langur. If you are really nice, I might put up the pix that show the red shanks:
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| It’s Time for a Tax to Kill High Frequency Trading Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:44 AM PDT It's frustrating to know that there's a simple solution to a serious problem but no one seems willing to do the obvious. Tax maven Lee Sheppard in an article at Forbes describes how transaction taxes could very quickly put a brake on numerous undesirable activities: high frequency trading, the explosion in derivatives, and overuse of repo financing. You might collectively think of these things as "junk liquidity" or "junk trading". HFT has proven to be singularly destructive. Despite the claims of it defenders, it does not increase market liquidity; it merely increases trading volumes without improving ease of execution. 60% of US stock market trading volume comes from HFT. HFT has undermined how markets operate. Institutional investors have diverted some of their trades to "dark pools" to escape the pred Retail traders have become increasingly distrustful of equity markets, thanks to HFT-related debacles like the flash crash and Kraft's first trading day at NASDAQ, when its initial trades had to be cancelled. CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton pointed out some other casualties of "cheetah trading" in a speech on Tuesday (hat tip Michael Crimmins):
Sheppard points out that HFT is front running and the SEC should have barred it; a transaction tax is thus a way to compensate for SEC enforcement failures:
And please, get over the idea that these trades make the markets work better:
The primary objective of a transaction tax is like a vice tax: its primary objective is to discourage activity, not make money, although a transaction tax would generate a decent level of revenues at low cost. It's no where near as radical as the banksters would have you believe: the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Singapore, and (gasp) the US have forms of transaction taxes. A new transaction tax of one basis point on securities transactions would pretty much end the HFT business, since the average trade generates less profit than that, while having a trivial impact on retail investors (a $2000 trade would face a $0.20 charge). A bill before Congress (Harkin-DeFazio, S. 1787) is revenue rather than behavior oriented, and calls for a three basis point charge, and claims it would raise $350 billion in 10 years. That seems high, since it also appears to assume that the junk trading would remain in place. But even if this number is overestimated, it's a nice chunk of change, particularly given that transaction taxes are easy to collect. Harkin-DeFazio would also tax derivatives transactions, not on their notional amount but the net payment. Anyone who has had any contact with the derivatives business knows that they are used overwhelmingly for speculation, accounting gaming, or regulatory arbitrage. The real tell is the insanity that is uncritically taken up on some of the more OTC markets oriented financial outlets, that of the "scarcity of good collateral". The demand for collateral is due to the need to secure derivatives positions. When the value of side bets is so large you can't find enough good assets to secure your positions systemically, there is something seriously wrong with this picture. Sheppard recognizes the connection between derivatives and repo financing, which is something that Harkin-DeFazio missed, and she argues the tax should include repo as well:
Sheppard seems unduly worried that imposing the tax might lower securities prices. First, the level of taxes is trivial for that dying breed, investors; it's quick trigger traders that will feel the pinch. This will have a marginal impact on transaction costs for most investors. I grew up in a world where transaction costs across the board were vastly higher and despite enthusiast claims to the contrary, lowering transaction costs does not seem to have been a price booster (I've seen pretty dramatic examples to the contrary, where bidders on NYC apartments are insensitive to flip fees, 2% to 3% charges imposed by the co-op when they sell). Second, if she believes her own argument about the detrimental effects of HFT, getting rid of junk trading would reduce market volatility, making investments more attractive. That would likely more than offset any negative impact of miniscule increases in transaction costs. Of course, there are more draconian remedies being bandied about. Consider Bart Chilton's suggestion:
There are many ways to skin this cat, um, cheetah, and it's high time we set about to do it.
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| Fed Policy: Good for Gold but Bad for the Economy Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:21 AM PDT I despise the interventionist ways of the Federal Reserve. But as a gold investor, I appreciate the Federal Reserve's "help" in boosting my portfolio. Fed policy right now can only lead the gold price in one direction: higher. |
| Kirsty Hogg Interviews David Morgan - Facebook Group Mailbag Questions Posted: 17 Oct 2012 11:11 PM PDT Gold Wars |
| Posted: 17 Oct 2012 11:00 PM PDT |
| The First 12 Hours of a US Dollar Collapse *7 min. video* Posted: 17 Oct 2012 11:00 PM PDT |
| Two Reasons Why the Gold Market is Under Pressure Posted: 17 Oct 2012 10:42 PM PDT |
| Yanis Varoufakis: The Euro Crisis as a Spectacular Political Failure Posted: 17 Oct 2012 09:48 PM PDT Yves here. This post is the text of a speech Yanis delivered in Melbourne at the CPA annual conference, as part of a debate with Norman Lamont, the UK's former Chancellor of the Exchequer under John Major. By Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economics at the University of Athens. Cross posted from his blog 1. INTRODUCTION – Why am I here? Thank you Robert. Thank you Ladies and Gentlemen. It is a great honour to be in your midst today. Still, I cannot but wonder: Why am I here today? Is it because of my work on the philosophical foundations of game theory? Or for my book on the global crisis? Let's be honest. It is because the Euro Crisis has promoted me from a run of the mill academic to a… renowned Greek economist. A most dubious promotion. But such is this Crisis that the marginal, all of a sudden, acquires undeserved discursive power and is propelled into the centre of things. Take my country, Greece. At the margins of Europe's map and economy for centuries, Greece has been in the global headlines for three years. This is quite absurd. If a crisis in the Northern Territory had the capacity to threaten with disintegration the Australian Commonwealth, the problem would not be with the Northern Territory. Something would have been profoundly remiss with Australian capitalism! Catherine the Great once said that: "if you can't be a good example, you will have to be a horrible warning." This is, ladies and gentlemen, my task this fine morning: a Greek bearing not gifts but a hideous warning. 2. THIS IS OUR GREAT DEPRESSION – OUR GLOBAL WINTER OF DISCONTENT When the GFC struck in 2008, we entered not some recession we had to have but our generation's Global Winter of Discontent, our very own Postmodern Great Depression. It may not feel like a Depression in the streets of Melbourne today but scratch the surface anywhere on the planet and what you will find is justified uncertainty, legitimate insecurity and potential insolvency. Can we expect the combined quantitative easing of our Central Banks to help? At the very best it will provide palliative care to a world in need of a cure. A cure for what? A cure for what I term the Twin Peaks Problem that follows large financial crashes like those of 1929 and 2008:
Can we find such a solution? Of course we can. We did so twice since WW2. Once in 1944 and then again in the 1970s. Both involved a mechanism for recycling global surpluses in the form of productive investment into the deficit regions and sectors. If our world is now in a state of pronounced bewilderment it is because no replacement has been found for the surplus recycling mechanism which died with the GFC in 2008, at the time the US lost its capacity to use its own deficits in order to recycle other people's surpluses. 3. EUROPE'S CRISIS AS THE LABORATORY OF THE FUTURE Which brings me to the Eurozone. It was built on the presumption that America's recycling of others' surpluses would continue to provide adequate demand for net exporters like Germany. Thus no endogenous surplus recycling mechanism was built into the Eurozone. For 8 years the Eurozone resembled a fine riverboat on a calm Ocean. But when America's recycling powers suddenly gave way, the seas turned stormy and the pretty European riverboat began to take water in. Thus our modern Greco-European tragedy began.
In short, a dreadful monetary design was defended by toxic remedies. For three years now Europe's response to the discovery that it had created a monster was an all-out assault on reason. 4. WATERBOARDING GREECE Almost in a bid to defy my hosts I have said nothing so far about Greece. The reason is that there is little to say. Greece was the flimsiest, most corrupt, least entrepreneurial part of the Eurozone. These are the reasons why the domino effect started there. But it is not the cause of the domino effect! Nonetheless, Greece:
Greece has already undergone the greatest fiscal squeeze ever attempted anywhere. It is now being fiscally waterboarded to accept new measures that everyone knows will drive our economy further into the ground and guarantee that our partners will never get their money back. So, why is Europe doing this? Because the alternative would be for its elites to admit that the Eurozone was built upon flimsy foundations. 5. WHAT SHOULD WE DO WITH THE EURO: It's the politics stupid In her final Parliamentary speech as Prime Minister, Mrs Thatcher famously said about the Eurozone: "It's all politics. Who controls interest rates is political. A single currency is about the politics of Europe." Hear, hear, I say. (You know that a crisis is deep when a leftwing Greek economist is missing Margaret Thatcher!) Where Mrs Thatcher was wrong was in her belief that Europe's elites had federation on some secret agenda. Exhibit A that they do not have such an agenda is the current banking union debacle: Everyone knows a banking union is a prerequisite for stopping Italy's and Spain's quick march into the Grecian Vortex. And yet Germany is single-mindedly working to wreck in practice the banking union which it agreed to in June. No, ladies and gentlemen, all talk of a federal agenda is bogus. As the Cambridge economist Nicholas Kaldor had predicted in the 1970s, an attempt to create a flimsy currency union would be a first step not toward a Federal Europe but toward Europe's deconstruction. 6. CONCLUSION So, what should we do? Europe is now the laboratory of our global future. We should never have created this Euro. But given that we have, Europe has a moral responsibility to itself, and to the rest of the world, to fix it. Without the Treaty changes, fiscal pacts, or Ponzi Austerity programs that defy basic economic logic. Technically we can achieve this in weeks. But, as Mrs Thatcher, might have said today, "It's the politics stupid!" If we fail, Europe will have inflicted mass pain on the rest of the planet for a third time in a century. And then you will all become Greeks too – and not in the benign sense of sharing a love for Homer, Sophocles and Thucydides.
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