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Friday, September 21, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Have the Last 5 Years Been Worse than the Great Depression?

Posted: 21 Sep 2012 12:45 AM PDT

What Do Economic Indicators Say?

We’ve repeatedly pointed out that there are many indicators which show that the last 5 years have been worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, including:

Mark McHugh reports:

 Velocity of money is the  frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services.   It is a far better indicator of economic activity than GDP, consumer prices, the stock market, or sales of men’s underwear (which Greenspan was fond of ogling).  In a healthy economy, the same dollar is collected as payment and subsequently spent many times over.  In a depression, the velocity of money goes catatonic.  Velocity of money is calculated by simply dividing GDP by a given money supply.  This VoM chart using monetary base  should end any discussion of what ”this” is and whether or not anybody should be using the word “recovery” with a straight face:

 

 Have the Last 5 Years Been Worse than the Great Depression?

 

In just four short years, our “enlightened” policy-makers have slowed money velocity to depths never seen in the Great Depression.

(As we’ve previously explained, the Fed has intentionally squashed money multipliers and money velocity as a way to battle inflation. And see this)

Indeed, the number of Americans relying on government assistance to obtain basic food may be higher now that during the Great Depression.  The only reason we don’t see the “soup lines” like we did in the 30s only because of the massive food stamp program.

And while apologists for government and bank policy point to unemployment as being better than during the 1930s, even that claim is debatable.

What Do Economists Say?

Indeed,  many economists agree that this could be worse than the Great Depression, including:

Bad Policy Has Us Stuck

We are stuck in a depression because the government has done all of the wrong things, and has failed to address the core problems.

For example:

  • The government is doing everything else wrong. See this and this

Quantitative easing won’t help … it will only make things worse.

This isn’t an issue of left versus right … it’s corruption and bad policies which help the super-elite but are causing a depression for the vast majority of the American people.

The government and the banks are doing all of the wrong things. See this and this.


Precious Metals Benefit From a Shift in Currencies

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 11:30 PM PDT

from Gold Seek:

We recall with some nostalgia that it was last year on September 6, that gold hit an all-time high of $1,923. This of course reminds us that a month before that the credit agency Standard & Poor's stripped the United States of its AAA rating on its bonds after partisan wrangling over raising the government's debt limit led the nation to the brink of default. And now in addition to nostalgia we get a feeling of déjà vu. The U.S. recently received another warning of a credit downgrade, this time from Moody's Investors Service. The credit agency said last Tuesday that it would most likely cut its Aaa rating on United States government debt, probably by one notch, if Washington's budget negotiations failed. This does not bode well for the U.S. dollar in the long run.

Let's move to the situation in Europe. When George Soros speaks people usually listen. Soros is a strong supporter of European integration but a longtime critic of Germany's eurozone crisis management. In his usual forthright manner, Soros recently said in a speech that Europe's recession will intensify and spread to Germany within six months.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com


What If Only 3% of Adults Wanted To Purchase Physical Gold And Silver?

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 10:30 PM PDT

by Patrick A. Heller, CoinWeek.com:

The general public probably attributes the recent strength in gold and silver prices to a huge surge in demand from a wide swath of the population. That perception is completely false.

Bron Suchecki of Australia's Perth Mint was recently interviewed by the Financial Survival Network. By his estimation, the huge surge in demand for buying physical gold and silver in late 2008 represented less than 2% of potential buyers. Yet the demand from this small part of the public resulted in huge delays in availability of bullion coins and bars, often one to two months at the peak, and some even longer. Other coins in comparatively ready supply such as US 90% Silver Coins, reached retail premiums of more than 35% above silver value.

Suchecki further explained that this demand surge identified the main bottleneck in producing fabricated bullion-priced coins—obtaining sufficient blanks to meet demand.

Read More @ CoinWeek.com


The Bottom Line #11 - Stay Calm....We'll Print More

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 10:17 PM PDT

By: Paul Azeff and Kory Bobrow Wednesday, September 19, 2012 [INDENT] "The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception." Friedrich A Hayek “Paper is poverty… it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.” Thomas Jefferson “Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth.” Alan Greenspan (yes, THAT Alan Greenspan!) "The great free nations of the world must take control of our monetary problems if these problems are not to take control of us." John F Kennedy “You ought to own some gold but don’t store it in the U.S., the Fed will take it away from you one day….” Dr. Marc Faber "The geniuses at the Federal Reserve have concocted a bold new plan to revive the U.S. economy -- print a bunch of money, loa...


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 10:00 PM PDT

Gold fell $14.70 to $1755.80 at about 6:20AM EST, but it then rose to as high as $1770.42 in New York and ended with a loss of just 0.12%. Silver slipped to as low as $34.084 in London, but it also rallied back higher in New York and ended near its midday high of $34.692 with a gain of 0.03%.


The Bottom Line #11 – Stay Calm….We'll Print More

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 09:00 PM PDT

by Paul Azeff and Kory Bobrow, Euro Pac:

"The history of government management of money has, except for a few short happy periods, been one of incessant fraud and deception." Friedrich A Hayek

"Paper is poverty… it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself." Thomas Jefferson

"Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth." Alan Greenspan (yes, THAT Alan Greenspan!)

"The great free nations of the world must take control of our monetary problems if these problems are not to take control of us." John F Kennedy

"You ought to own some gold but don't store it in the U.S., the Fed will take it away from you one day…." Dr. Marc Faber

"The geniuses at the Federal Reserve have concocted a bold new plan to revive the U.S. economy — print a bunch of money, loan it to Americans at super low interest rates so they can speculate on rising real estate prices, extract the appreciated equity and spend it on consumer goods. In other words, build an economy of real estate, by real estate, and for real estate. The only problem is we've been there and done that. The last time it almost destroyed the U.S.economy. I guess almost isn't quite good enough for the Fed, so now it's determined to finish the job…." Peter Schiff, September 14, 2012

Read More @ EuroPac.com


“Forceful And Timely Action” To Nowhere

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 08:40 PM PDT

from, Testosterone Pit.com:

"Japan's experience is a sobering real-world reminder of why forceful and timely action is appropriate," Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren said in his desperation to rationalize the Fed's QE3 decision. It would restart the printing press in a massive way. It would be a flood of money—in contrast to the "muted" response from Japan to its two decades of economic stagnation.

And it has already been successful, he said: "I would say in sum that regardless of the event window chosen, stock prices are up substantially, mortgage rates are lower, and exchange rates are lower." Thus, he'd named the three goals of QE3: manipulate stock prices into the ether, repress yields on mortgages (and on everything from savings to corporate bonds), and demolish the dollar [read.... QE, Zimbabwe, And The Surreptitious 30% Haircut Every Decade].

Then he claimed that "appropriate fiscal policies"—namely even larger deficits—could "provide significant positive effects" to battle Japanese-style stagnation.

Read More @ TestosteronePit.com


The Near Future: When Silver Does not Protect Your Privacy

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 08:30 PM PDT

from Silver Vigilante:

That it is a discrete and private means of storing value is one of the central-most cited arguments by proponents of silver. The same arguments are provided for gold, platinum and palladium ownership as well. But, as we find ourselves amid the end of privacy, we will have to come to terms with the reality that our gold and silver is not as private as we would like to believe, even when we hold onto the coins and bars in our own homes.

The government is unleashing a swathe of new technology aimed to usher in the reign of the technocratic state in which technology maintains increasingly tighter regiments of order within society. During the new system's puberty, in which human policing could be obsolete, a rare instance in history sees men and women put behind the controls of some of the most invasive techniques of surveillance and investigation ever available. This leaves the rest of exposed to identity theft, fraud and political persecution.

Read More @ Silver Vigilante


The Gold Standard: A Panacea or More Malaise?

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 08:05 PM PDT

The debt clock keeps on ticking. The U.S. federal debt recently surpassed the $16 trillion level and is still rising. The Republicans ushered the idea of a return to the gold standard to the center stage at their Tampa convention last month.

Read More...


Kitco's Hug: Expect Silver To Hit $50/oz If Gold Surpasses $2000/oz; Buy The Dips For Both

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 08:00 PM PDT

by Sumit Roy, Hard Assets Investor:

Peter Hug is Kitco's director of global trading. He has been involved in precious metals since 1974. Hug developed the first precious metals certificate program and the first margin trading accounts for metals on the cash market. Hug will be speaking at the 5th Annual Inside Commodities conference Oct. 10 in Chicago, and is one of a handful of experts who have succeeded through multiple bull and bear cycles on the strength and skills honed during the dramatic fluctuations of the 1980s. HAI's Sumit Roy recently caught up with Hug to discuss the outlook for gold and silver after the Fed's big announcement.

HAI: The immediate reaction to the Federal Reserve's long-awaited third round of quantitative easing has been positive for gold, as one might expect. But is QE3 already priced in after the big rally from close to $1500 to nearly $1800?

Hug: I don't think so, though the market may be a little tired at these levels. Back in early August, when gold was trading under $1600, we were looking for gold to rise to $1720 and for silver to rise to $33 or $34 after Labor Day.

Read More @ hardassetsinvestor.com


Jim Grant: We Are Now All Labrats Of Bernanke And The Fourth Branch Of Government

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 07:57 PM PDT

from Zero Hedge:

You put Jim Grant on TV and someone mentions the Fed and the result every single time is the equivalent of waving a red curtain in front of a rabid bull. This time was no different, as the Interest Rate Observer once again let Bernanke, with whom he clarified is no longer on speaking terms, have it. The ensuing central-planner bashing was in line with expectations, and just as we presented yesterday in "The Experiment Economy", so too does Grant believe that the Fed is "learning by doing" and follows up by clarifying that this is an experiment, "and we are lab rats in the financial markets." He then proceeds to lament that the credit markets, clueless NYT econopundits notwithstanding, have now lost all informational value as every rate instrument is purely in the manipulated domain of the Fed. "We are all living in a land of speculation and manipulation" is Grant's summary of the current predicament of anyone who wishes to trade these "markets" and it may as well be the best synopsis of the New (ab)normal. And aside from an odd detour into Government Motors, Grant once again hones in on the only true antidote to central planner idiocy, gold: "the best thing about gold is that it's got no P/E multiple. Gold is a speculation on an anticipated macroeconomic outcome, the systematic debasement of currencies by central banks. Why wouldn't they do QE4? What intellectual argument do they have against doing it again, and again, and again." Well…none.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com


Debasement will lead to new currency, gold mining entrepreneur Barron says

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 07:08 PM PDT

9p ET Thursday, September 20, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold mine entrepreneur and consultant Keith Barron tells King World News that currency devaluation is policy throughout the world now and he thinks it will end in issuance of a new world reserve currency. An excerpt from Barron's interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/20_Th...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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The Commodity Matrix: What Is The Resource Of Tomorrow, And Who Will Benefit From It?

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 07:07 PM PDT

While it is impossible to predict where the S&P will be in 10 years (or even 1), one can safely make some assumptions about what the world will look like in a decade (assuming of course it hasn't blown up by then). It will be hungry, it will be thirsty, it will demand resources, and it will be crowded (and it will certainly have lots and lots of wheelbarrows carrying pieces of paper to and fro the local bakery). Implicitly then, countries which control the production and export of various key natural resources and commodities channels will become increasingly more strategic and important. However, for some economies, such as the Middle East, whose entire export-based welfare is reliant on a core set of commodities, this export-benefit may be a doubled-edged sword, should it lead to militant antagonism by one time friends and outright enemies, and/or complacency leading to lack of revenue stream diversity.  In order to determine who the key resource players in the future will be, we present the below commodity trade matrix which answers two questions: how important is a commodity to a country, and how important is a country to a commodity. As GS notes, those on the riskier side of this equation are economies that are heavily reliant on oil, such as the Middle East or even Russia (which albeit scores better on other hard commodities). On the other hand, food exporters enjoy relatively better diversity in their trade portfolios. We highlight the LatAm economies here, while Canada and the US also look healthy. Will food (and water) be the oil of the future, and will the next resource war be not over black, or even yellow, gold, but, pardon the pun, edible gold?

Some additional observations via Goldman:

Not all countries are blessed with abundant resources, and even among those that are, some countries have benefitted a great deal more than others as a result of the quality of their institutions. Indeed, resource wealth can, and has, tempted institutions to retain the revenues narrowly, rather than distribute  them broadly or develop others parts of the economy. This is the reason why the presence of resources hasn't historically guaranteed economic success. Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil and South Africa are countries that have high levels of hard commodities per capita, while Argentina and the US should be added to the list if soft commodities are included.

But what are the resources of the future? We think it very likely that food, water and therefore land, will become increasingly important, tilting the advantage in favour of those capable of feeding the next billion people. As two of the world's largest populations industrialise (hence producing less of their own food) and become wealthier (and hence hungrier), the way food flows around the world is likely to change significantly. Russia, South Korea, Japan and much of Western Europe are major food importers currently, while Brazil, Argentina, the US, Australia, Thailand and Canada sit on the other end of food trade. Here we have to mention Africa and India as regions with huge potential, but in need of greater institutional support to deliver it.

The current debate on the resources curse (the potential for resource-rich countries to become imbalanced) is also important. Being heavily reliant on a particularly commodity is risky as a result of the possibility of big shifts in the global economy, innovation-led substitutes or new discoveries. It is not implausible, for example, to imagine EM consumers extinguishing their demand for cigarettes just like their health conscious Western brethren did a few decades ago. This puts tobacco-heavy African economies like Zimbabwe at significant risk. Above is a commodity trade matrix to answer two entwined questions: how important is a commodity to a country, and how important is a country to a commodity? As expected, those on the riskier side of this equation are economies that are heavily reliant on oil, such as the Middle East or even Russia (which albeit scores better on other hard commodities). On the other hand, food exporters enjoy relatively better diversity in their trade portfolios. We highlight the LatAm economies here, while Canada and the US also look healthy.

The last question is which countries have succeeded despite resource deficits? Japan and South Korea stand out here, which cements our argument that necessity, in this case driven by constraints, is the mother of innovation.


Gold Possibly in Short Term Triangle

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 06:16 PM PDT

courtesy of DailyFX.com September 20, 2012 02:32 PM 60 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Consolidation since Monday may take the form of a short term bullish triangle. If a triangle is underway, then expect 1 to 2 more days of range trading until an upside break and test of 1800. From a trading perspective, it would be wise to allow the triangle to play out and look for a low (in the final leg of the triangle) early next week. LEVELS: 1715 1737 1747 1791 1800 1825...


The Payoff: Why Wall Street Always Wins - An Excerpt

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 04:52 PM PDT

Excerpts from THE PAYOFF: WHY WALL STREET ALWAYS WINS, By Jeff Connaughton

 

The Blob

In January 2009, Ted Kaufman was sworn in as a U.S. Senator, filling Joe Biden's seat and saying immediately he wouldn't run two years later in the special election. Kaufman never had to raise money to become a Senator or to stay there longer. For two years, he fought for average investors. THE PAYOFF: Why Wall Street Always Wins, written by Jeff Connaughton (Kaufman's chief of staff), tells how Kaufman and he took on Wall Street in Washington and had to fight "The Blob."

The Blob (it's really called that) refers to the government entities that regulate the finance industry—like the Banking Committee, Treasury Department, and SEC—and the army of Wall Street representatives and lobbyists that continuously surrounds and permeates them. The Blob moves together. Its members are in constant contact by e-mail and phone. They dine, drink, and take vacations together. Not surprisingly, they frequently intermarry.

Indeed, a good way to maximize your family income in DC is to specialize in financial issues and marry someone in The Blob. Ideally, you and your spouse take turns: One of you works for a bank, insurance company, or lobbying firm while the other works for a government entity that regulates, or enacts legislation for, the financial industry. Every few years, you reverse roles: "Sally Striver, staffer on the Senate Banking Committee," so might read a typical notice in Roll Call, "today announced her departure to work for the Financial Services Roundtable"; inevitably, she's replaced with someone from the financial industry because, so runs the justification, the committee needs people familiar with the issues. What you and your spouse do all the time is share information. After all, no lobbying restrictions yet promulgated can prevent pillow talk between Blob spouses.

Actually, marrying The Blob isn't even necessary. A Blob member can simply take his or her non-Blob spouse to Blob parties—convivial gatherings of lobbyists and Wall street emissaries, SEC and Treasury Department officials—to help gather and disseminate intelligence. It's a weekly, and sometimes nightly, occurrence in Washington. Ted and I quickly learned that, when you take on Wall Street in Washington, you take on The Blob.

*  * *

In August 2009, then Senator Kaufman wrote SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro to urge her to study how dramatic changes in our stock markets in only a few years time had led to an explosive growth in computerized trading.

Ted's letter to Chairman Schapiro helped draw the media's attention to dark pools and HFT, which began to receive extensive (and concerned) coverage in the financial press. The letter also transformed Ted from a virtually unknown Senate newcomer into a brightly flashing blip on Wall Street's radar screen. In response, Wall Street scrambled an entire air wing of bankers and lobbyists to buzz Capitol Hill. Soon, squadrons were swooping into our office, anxious to thwart new regulations following the financial crisis and, particularly, to prevent a crackdown on HFT. They were numerous (we typically met with five high-level Wall Street executives at a time) and unanimous. Whether a megabank, broker-dealer, or a hedge fund, they all said they believed that the stock market had never functioned better. "Competition has driven down the costs of trading," said one. "The spread between a stock's asking price and offer price has never been so narrow," said another. "There's always enough liquidity -- even during times of market stress -- to ensure that trades will almost certainly be executed," said a third. The refrain "mom-and-pop investors have never had it so good" was intoned by nearly all of them. As a former lobbyist, I almost had to admire the way they unswervingly stayed on message. And the message was that the status quo was good for everyone and that Ted and I were wasting our time exploring whether market changes might call for statutory and regulatory changes.

It would've been easy, and quite understandable, for us to be convinced by Wall Street's unanimous message. But we'd been educating ourselves about these issues and we were convinced that there were, to use Donald Rumsfeld's locution, too many unknown unknowns for us to stop burrowing for answers and prodding the SEC. Our chief burrower was Josh Goldstein, a twenty-two-year-old college graduate who'd deferred entry to Yale Law School for a year to come work for Ted. Josh is brainy, curious, and tireless. He spent all day, every day, immersing himself in the arcana of HFT, stock market structure, and regulation. He soon became so knowledgeable that his questions in meetings would elicit who-the-hell-is-this-kid looks from Wall Street lobbyists. We also had help from a few industry insiders (who worked with us on the condition that we never mention their names publicly), which suggested there was less unanimity than Wall Street wanted us to believe.

We learned about a range of trading strategies, some of which are beneficial to the average investor, but some of which are predatory and harmful. One HFT strategy is called pinging. It involves attempting to "uncover how much an investor is willing to pay -- or sell for -- by sending out a stream of probing quotes that are swiftly cancelled until they elicit a response. The traders then buy or short the targeted stock ahead of the investor, offering it to them a fraction of a second later for a tidy profit" (the Economist). Another HFT strategy is called quote-stuffing. It involves purposefully sending millions of orders to one trading venue to slow it down imperceptibly so that the trader can take advantage of time and price disparities at other trading venues. There are also momentum strategies (in which traders take a position in a stock and then use HFT to generate market momentum that would benefit their position) and liquidity-detection strategies (in which traders use HFT to front-run -- that is, buy or sell microseconds ahead of -- incoming orders from pension and mutual funds). An SEC staffer stated that in some instances these strategies "could be manipulation" and "would concern us."

The Tabb Group estimated in 2009 that HFT generates $8 billion in profits annually. The question is: How much of this profit is from legitimate practices that benefits all investors, and how much of it is effectively an illicit toll extorted from average investors without their knowledge?

* * *

Our top priority was to get the SEC to identify (or, to use the industry term: tag) high-frequency traders and collect data about their trades. Under current rules, such data weren't collected. So it's impossible to track an order as it wends its way—if "wend" can apply to a journey that takes a microsecond—through the electronic trading labyrinth and is executed. In fact, the entire reporting system for the execution of trades is antiquated. The SEC doesn't even monitor brokers to ensure they execute trades fairly. Oversight in this area has been outsourced to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), of which Schapiro was the chairman and CEO from 2006 to 2008. A self-regulatory organization for broker-dealers, FINRA has often been criticized for being lax in policing the industry and generous in compensating its executives (Schapiro's regular compensation for 2008 was $3.5 million).

We met repeatedly with FINRA to learn what, if anything, it was doing to detect manipulation in today's microsecond trading environment. FINRA admitted to me that its computer programs only allowed it to monitor the market in multi-second increments. They were, in effect, engaged in the hopeless endeavor of using a Brownie camera to capture an image of a bullet train. "Guys," I said, "there's an entire multibillion dollar industry of high-frequency traders operating within your margin of error." As it stood, no one could look for, or detect, stock manipulation at the current high speeds. FINRA didn't dispute this. For our part, we were determined to prove that a workable monitoring solution was possible. So we threw ourselves into composing another letter to the SEC. Attached was a five-page memorandum that detailed the obsolescence of the current reporting requirements and offered specific suggestions, gleaned from some of the top experts in the field, on how to update them.

Meanwhile, the pushback from Wall Street was intense and multi-pronged. The Blob oozed through the halls of government, seeking, through its glutinous embrace, to immobilize the legislative and regulatory apparatus, thereby preserving the status quo. The executive jets of the Wall Street air force flew sortie after sortie, transporting high-ranking emissaries from new York to Washington to meet with the SEC, [Senator Chris] Dodd and [Senator Richard] Shelby staff, and the staff of other senators on the Banking Committee. Some of the executives, no doubt less enthusiastically, even met with Josh and me. The research companies and market experts Wall Street employs also raised their voices against us. At times it got ugly. Ted was called a crackpot and dangerously uninformed. He was accused of "politicizing" market regulation (a strange notion considering he wasn't running for election). It seemed as if Wall Street, which wasn't used to someone on Capitol Hill asking in-depth questions about arcane issues, wished to silence or marginalize its critics. Industry people would always ask me, "What got Kaufman so interested in this stuff?" Used to politicians whose top priorities were to please their home-state business interests and raise money, they had trouble fathoming that Ted was so interested because it was the right thing to do. He believed in fair markets. And because he was genuinely concerned about emerging issues that threatened the stock market, where half of all Americans keep a sizable portion of their retirement savings.
 
Ted Kaufman Meets With SEC Chairman Schapiro

In October 2009, then Senator Ted Kaufman asked to meet with SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro to discuss how dramatic changes in our stock markets had in only a few years time led to an explosive growth in computerized trading.

When she walked into Ted's office, my first reaction was that I thought she looked exhausted, which made me feel some sympathy toward her. Ted had been spitting bullets at the SEC for months, but even his manner seemed to soften from meeting her and sensing her fatigue. After they exchanged pleasantries, Ted launched into a brief summation of his views, which he'd been using effectively with his fellow senators:

Just like with derivatives, which blew up and nearly sank the country, we've got the same formula with HFT. I call it the Kaufman Formula. Whenever you've got a lot of change, a lot of money, no transparency, and therefore no effective regulation—watch out. Because the next thing you could hear is "boom." There's been a lot of change. The stock markets have transformed dramatically in only a few years time. There's a lot of money. The daily market volume by high-frequency traders is now over 60 percent. And they're making billions of dollars a year. There's no transparency. The SEC has admitted you're not collecting any data and you have almost no baseline understanding of HFT. And therefore we have a rapidly expanding market that's operating completely in the dark, with no effective regulation. I'm very worried that this is a prescription for another disaster.

Schapiro took it all in. She responded by reiterating her pledge, which she'd made publicly in response to Ted's letter, that the SEC would conduct a comprehensive review of market-structure issues and HFT. She added that she had many other issues on her plate. And indeed she had. America had just been through the biggest financial disaster in sixty years; Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme had gone undetected by the SEC for years despite repeated warnings from whistleblowers; investors were rattled and worried that the SEC was toothless. Nevertheless, it was obvious to me that she only had one choice if history was to judge her well: she had to do something.

Ted must have been thinking the same thing. Near the end of the meeting he told Schapiro, "I don't believe you're going to do anything about high-frequency trading." Looking him straight in the eye, she replied, "You just watch." We watched for nearly three years. It wasn't until July 2011 and June 2012 that the SEC approved minimalist rules that would force market participants to collect the data that would enable the SEC to begin—begin—the process of understanding HFT's impact on markets. In effect, Ted and I and America are still watching and waiting for the SEC to take meaningful action.

* * *

Newton's first law of motion states that "every object continues in its state of rest, or of uniform motion in a straight line, unless compelled to change that state by external forces acted upon it." If he'd replaced "object" with "organ of government" he'd have written the first law of organizational inertia. Ted and I knew all about that law, because we felt its immobilizing force every day on Capitol Hill. So we knew how difficult it was for an organization like the SEC to think, and move, in new ways (particularly with the weight of The Blob serving as a constant check against motion). We tried to be a helpful, not hectoring, external force, to prod with useful ideas, not jab with invective. As the Reverend Jesse Jackson might have said: we tried to engage, not enrage.

During his term in office, Ted went to the floor every week to praise a federal employee. One week, he picked an SEC employee, an attorney in the Enforcement Division who'd recently won an insider-trading case involving U.S. Treasury bonds. The speech was an opportunity to reassure SEC employees that one of their toughest critics was nonetheless sympathetic to their situation. "As the SEC embarks on its next chapter, I want all of its employees to know when they walk out of that lobby each day and see the Capitol Dome, they should feel confident that those of us who work under it are their partners. . . . The era of looking the other way is now behind us. The time has come to look forward." It was, in keeping with Ted's character, a noble sentiment and heartfelt (as trite and corny as they may sound, I believe those modifiers aptly capture Ted's intent).

On the other hand, we were well aware of the three main impediments to the SEC taking meaningful action. First, nearly all the data, evidence, and analysis the SEC uses to monitor the financial industry come from the industry itself, creating a temptation for the industry to spin the data in its favor (as we'd seen with the naked-short-selling data provided by Goldman Sachs). Second, The Blob oozes endlessly in and out of the revolving door of public service. According to the Project on Government Oversight, 219 former SEC staff members filed 789 "post employment statements indicating their intent to represent an outside client before the commission" between 2006 and 2010. In other words, 219 former government officials were representing Wall street clients on matters before the SEC. Third, because the SEC has been so slow to start collecting data about HFT, it's still years away from being able to propose HFT regulatory rules that it can empirically justify based on hard data (as the federal courts will require it to do).

Attached to our final letter to Chairman Schapiro, dated August 5, 2010, were eight pages of proposals for addressing the above-mentioned (and other) shortcomings: the need to bring light to dark pools, to eliminate conflicts of interest, to ensure that regulators have the data they need to prevent manipulation and accurately assess whether small investors are being ripped off. The letter pointed out that how the SEC responds to our proposals is "a test of whether [it] is just a 'regulator by consensus,' which only moves forward when it finds solutions favored by large constituencies on Wall Street, or if it indeed exists to serve a broader mission."

As part of our effort to engage, not enrage, we didn't drop the letter through the SEC's transom like a hand grenade and run away. Prior to August 5, I met with the director of the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets and provided him and his deputy with an hour-long briefing on everything we'd learned and what the letter would propose. As a joke and gesture of good will, I'd taken along a Senate calendar with the prior days X'd off and a big red circle around Ted's last day in office to indicate that we suspected they were counting the days. Ted had signed it and added "keep up the good work!" After I finished my presentation, one of the director's responses was, "Wow, it's great to hear from someone who isn't from the industry." When I got back to my office, I called a friend who'd been a top staffer for former SEC Chairman Bill Donaldson, and he told me, "Jeff, it's true. The only people who walk through the SEC's door are Wall Street people bitching about SEC proposals."

To read more and buy the book, visit jeffconnaughton.com
 


The Only Way They Can Stop This Is Bring Out A New Currency

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 04:51 PM PDT

Today a legend in the business told King World News, "The only way they can stop this now is by shutting the door and bringing out a new currency." Keith Barron, who consults with major gold companies around the world, and is responsible for one of the largest gold discoveries in the last quarter century, also said, "The whole world is in an incredible slump."

Here is what he had to say: "I don't think they can ever stop printing money now. They are down the road of no return. I've seen this happen in Russia. I've seen it happen in Brazil. I lived in Brazil for a few years and saw it happen twice. The currency went to zero."


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Something Wicked This Way Comes

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 04:28 PM PDT

September 20, 2012 [LIST] [*]"What are you guys smokin'?" and other gems from the mailbag... more serious than it looks... [*]Viral email warns of troop buildup in Israel? The 5 surveys its own "chatter"... [*]The Empire sews its own destruction... impending "financial crisis" forecast by top money manager... and bank bailout insider... [*]Three more good reasons to buy gold... readers abuse Tucker for can opener discovery... one reader actually gets the point... a "hostess of horizontal refreshment"?... the secret to Sarnoff's options strategy... and more! [/LIST] You have to love a day that begins with: "What are you guys smokin'?" Specifically, the reader was responding to Jeffrey Tucker's amazement over a new can opener he'd purchased. But could have easily applied to any number of themes we plumb in The 5 on a daily basis. Take this next item, for example: "This is the second iteration of the same message I have recei...


Emigration Is A Tough Decision To Make

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 04:20 PM PDT

From Monty Pelerin: Readers often provide great insights and questions. Here is one from Reader Syrin on*Why This Election Should Be A Rout And What To Do If It Isn’t: [INDENT]Monty, I agree with you, but here's the question. Emigrate to where? I have three kids. [LIST] [*]Central or South America. Homes of the drug cartels and Banana Republics? [*]Europe which not only will face its own collapse, but faces a take over by Muslim immigrants. [*]Africa? Asia? Where in Asia? War is looming there, and the cultural differences are immense. [*]Perhaps Singapore, but have you checked housing costs there? Astronomical. [/LIST]I don't disagree, but I have looked into emigration for three years now, and every nation has adopted the Keynesian welfare state with an impending collapse looming on the horizon. Australia or New Zealand. Still going socialist, but with more freedom. Please, offer suggestions. [/INDENT]As I have explained elsewhere, I intend to “go down with the ship.&#...


The Gold Price Closed Down $1.30 Today I Expect a Correction although Gold May Continue to $1,900

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 03:57 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1767.70
Change : (1.30) or -0.07%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.628
Change : 0.099 or 0.29%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.048
Change : -0.184 or -0.36%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01959
Change : 0.000070 or 0.36%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1623.40
Change : -16.50 or -1.01%

Palladium Price Close Today : 662.90
Change : -11.40 or -1.69%

S&P 500 : 1,460.20
Change : -0.79 or -0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.01
Change : $ 0.35 or 0.22%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.692
Change : 0.017 or 0.22%

Dow in SILVER oz : 392.66
Change : -0.58 or -0.15%

Dow Industrial : 13,596.93
Change : 18.97 or 0.14%

US Dollar Index : 79.42
Change : 0.309 or 0.39%

The GOLD PRICE lost $1.30 today to $1,767.70 while silver gained 9.9c to 3461.8c. That reflects either indecision or balance between buyers and sellers. Both silver and gold are pretty fiercely overbought, so it's no surprise new buyers are indecisive. But this sideways stuff can't last much longer.

Present situation is fraught with many possible dead ends and tricks. The SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE might go ahead and make the correction I expect. On the other hand, they might yet shoot a little higher, say to $1,800 gold, and then correct. Or, not very likely, they might rest here a few days then resume their upward march to $1,900. Highest odds are with a correction, as the upward move appears complete.

Patience, patience -- it pays off. Foolish investors look at market moves and believe they have to buy the bottom and sell the top. Rather, look at it this way: you only want to take out a large slice of that rise. And after that opportunity, another train will leave the station tomorrow.

I'm flying blind today because the Internet conked out at my office, but I'll write this and take it home to send from there. Not much matter, as markets moved crabwise again today.

The vastly oversold US dollar index continues its pitiful "rally". Rose 30.9 basis points today, 0.4%, to 79.422. 80 is about the limit of this snail crawl.

Euro lost 0.32% today and closed below 1.3000 at $1.2960 (E0.7716). Yen gained 0.2% to 127.80c (Y78.25), also no game changer.

Y'all are watching the fiat paper currencies decouple from silver and gold, little by little, until finally the public will repudiate them altogether, an outcome to be devoutly hoped for.

Of all stock indices only the Potemkin Dow rose today, 18.97 (0.14%) to 13,596.93. S&P500 fell 0.79 or 0.06%. Mostly it was a losing day, but I don't think stocks have drawn in enough victims yet to end their rally. Stock investors have about as much chance of winning as guests at a casino.

My new book, At Home in Dogwood Mudhole, went to the printer last week, and is on track to be published 15 October. The book recounts my family's move to the country and how we learned to farm by making every mistake the ignorant could chance upon. You'll read about Jack, my $1,000 Dalmador dog, and my wife's command not to "buy anything that eats." If you read it and you don't laugh out loud (or cry great tears), I will refund your money and you can keep the book and use it for a doorstop.

SO FAR we have orders from 36 US states and 12 foreign countries -- thank you, Malta, for that order!

I'd like to get an order from every state, so I'm going to make a one time offer. If you are the VERY FIRST (and only the first) to order At Home In Dogwood Mudhole from one of the states below, I'll send you TWO (2) orders for the price of one. You can give one to a friend and look like a big spender. Offer only applies to persons ordering from these states, and only to the first person who enters an order: Alaska Delaware Iowa Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Nebraska New Jersey New Mexico Rhode Island South Dakota West Virginia Wyoming

I already have orders from UK, Guernsey, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Malta, Israel, Thailand, Norway, and Singapore. If you are NOT in one of these countries, I'll make the same First Order Offer to you: If you are the first person from your country to order At Home In Dogwood Mudhole, you get two for the price of one.

To order, go to http://bit.ly/ahidm-vol1 Time's a wasting!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.


There’s Tons Of Gold In Idaho Just Waiting To Be Mined–Otis Gold 20.Sept.12

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 03:40 PM PDT

www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents

Craig Lindsay grew up in British Columbia Canada where going into mining and natural resources was the natural course of events. He went into corporate finance but has always been involved in mining ever since.  He's worked in North America and Asia and he's assembled a world class team to develop 4 projects in Idaho. There's vast proven resources present and now that the two year miner bear market appears to be over, the prospects for Otis are looking extremely positive.

Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets.


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SILVER IS THE MOST UNDERVALUED ASSET IN THE HISTORY OF THE WORLD!!

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 03:37 PM PDT

In this must watch market update, Greg Mannarino discusses the recent pull-back in crude, stating that the long term trend for crude is up, up, UP. He states that the current pull-back is creating a MASSIVE FLOOR and is extremely … Continue reading


CME Lowers Initial ES And Other Key Equity-Related Margins By 12%

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 03:16 PM PDT

It doesn't get much more obvious than this. The S&P at multi year highs, and what does the CME do? Why it lowers initial (as in please come in and open new positions) spec margin for not only the E-Mini, but virtually every other major market "reflexive" product in existence including S&P, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and subsector futures currently traded, by 12%. As a reminder, the last time that "other" asset class rose to multi-year highs, that would be gold, it hiked margin nearly every single day, with a culmination of two margins hikes in one day on May 4. Naturally, the margin hiker-in-chief is not as worried about stocks attaining the same bubble status since if anything it will merely cement reelection chances. That said, should WTI ever dare to go up above $100 watch as the CME proceeds to decimate anyone who dares to be long WTI futures on margin.

Full release here:


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - A Look At Precioius Metal ETFs - Split Right Ball Curl On Ben

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 02:04 PM PDT


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Jim's Mailbox

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 12:45 PM PDT

Hi Jim,

I know you will never really get the credit you deserve for the media's favorite new expression "QE to infinity," or when they pick up on the idea of gold miners as utilities, etc.

I also know after all these years of following you that notoriety is not what drives you and

Continue reading Jim's Mailbox


Next move in gold will be big, Hinde Capital's Davies tells King World News

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 12:43 PM PDT

2:30p ET Thursday, September 20, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

As currency debasement increases, gold will be the only collateral to survive in the world financial system, Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies tells King World News today. Government intervention against gold will be overwhelmed by the market at some point, Davies says, and the market seems short right now. His gold price target for the next move is. ... Well, it's a big target, so why spoil the fun? An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/9/20_Be...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Taylor MacDonald Unearths Profit-Makers in the Oil and Gas Service Sector

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 12:14 PM PDT

The Energy Report: It's been almost a year and a half since your last interview. We've had lots of ups and downs in the market. What is your current outlook for oil and gas? Are prices going to be stable or do you expect significant movement one way or the other? Taylor MacDonald: Eric Sprott put it best when he said something along the lines of "Tell me how many greenbacks the Federal Reserve is going to print and I'll tell you where oil prices are going" Greater easing is bad for the U.S. dollar and good for things priced in dollars. In a supply-constrained environment, the potential for shocks exists, but demand will continue to grow as long as oil prices don't run too quickly or so far as to cause too much of a drag on global economic activity. If there's an incident in the Middle East that shuts down oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia or the Strait of Hormuz, we could easily see oil at $150/barrel (bbl) or even $200/bbl. Hopefully that would be temporary. But irrespective of th...


Crisis Replay… Soon Argentina Will Be on Sale Again

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 12:04 PM PDT

Just over a decade ago Argentina spectacularly unraveled with the biggest default in history — $100 billion. Dollar deposits were converted to pesos. Then, overnight, the peg of one-to-one with the dollar was broken. The unpegged currency immediately devalued. Savings were wiped out. Banks were set alight and locals took to the streets in protest.

That crisis created the biggest buying opportunity of a decade. During the fire sales you could have picked up a historic, high-end property in Buenos Aires or a vineyard in Mendoza for a song.

Today, Argentina is back in a bind. There is a strong possibility of another crack-up within the next year. And then we'll have the same opportunity we had a decade ago. The signs are all there. The streets of Buenos Aires have recently seen the return of the backstreet currency exchange.

According to the official exchange rate, which is subject to capital controls, 4.4 pesos buys you a dollar. But on the street people are happy to pay up to 6.7. Inflation runs at 25%. The purchasing power of an Argentine's peso savings is going down by one-quarter each year.

The government claims inflation is 9.9% and has outlawed calculating or quoting any other inflation rate. Forty percent of dollar deposits have been withdrawn from Argentina since last October. Now there are capital controls. You need special permission to move your dollars overseas.

To take a foreign vacation, Argentines have to apply to a bureaucrat for permission and explain where they got the money for the trip. And there are rumors that it will be made illegal to talk about the existence of the shadow market exchange rate for dollars.

But a lot of Argentines' dollars and pesos don't reside in bank accounts. Property transactions typically take place in special rooms in lawyers' offices, and they're a cash deal. There's that much distrust of banks. They are fine for day-to-day things like paying your electric bill. Not for your savings, though.

And these transactions more often than not take place in dollars…if you pay in dollars you could get 25% off the price of property. The government has outlawed this, making the buying and selling of real estate in dollars illegal. Just one more rule Argentines will find their way around.

By some reports, if an Argentine company complied with all the taxes and tariffs it faces, they would eat up more than the company's pretax profits. So the shadow economy thrives. By necessity, it seems, rather than greed to pay less tax. Middle-class day-trippers take the ferry to Uruguay to put their savings in deposit boxes. The rich spend millions on condos in Punta del Este, Uruguay.

For Argentines, real estate is their bank. They understand inflation and expropriation from bank and pension accounts. If they have some spare cash, they'll buy an apartment. Or a beach home across the Río de la Plata in Uruguay. Or a condo in Miami.

Now fewer Argentines are using local real estate as a hedge against inflation. New construction and permit applications have fallen off a cliff. They just want their cash out.

The government claims that the rate of outflow has slowed. But with every passing week, companies and individuals figure out new ways to get their cash out. For instance, companies buy financial instruments locally in pesos that they immediately resell in New York for dollars.

Argentines have seen it all before. When a government and a banking system take your life's work with the stroke of a pen, you don't forget. If you're lucky enough to rebuild your savings, the next time you will be ready. And the harder the Argentine president, Cristina Kirchner, tries to keep assets in the country, the more they'll be siphoned out.

Meantime, Argentina is all but frozen out of international debt markets. The government hasn't reached a settlement with the group of creditors (known as the Paris Club) since its last default. So the country and the banking system desperately need these deposits to stay afloat.

But they continue to do incredibly dumb things. Two years ago President Kirchner seized private pension accounts. Now she is going to lend $4.4 billion of this money, at a rate of one-tenth the inflation rate, to new home buyers. A lottery will decide who gets the loans — not capacity to repay.

Argentina has major competitive advantages in beef production. But land under beef farming is contracting. Beef producers face large and complicated export tariffs and are forced to sell cheaply to the domestic market. Many have moved operations to Uruguay or switched to soya.

It's one crackpot idea after another. And the cycle repeats. Expropriating your citizens' savings or international companies like YPF (a subsidiary of Spanish oil company Repsol), which President Kirchner nationalized last April, might buy you some time. But not much. The writing is on the wall.

In the last crisis, the trigger event was Argentina's massive default on its sovereign debt. This time around Argentina doesn't face that scenario. Government spending has to be funded from printing presses, taxes, and expropriation of personal or company assets. It's hard to see how the government can collect more taxes. The printing presses are already causing the inflation and the rush to backstreet currency-exchange brokers. There's a limit to what you can expropriate.

This time around the trigger event for a full-scale crisis will be the country's running out of hard currency. There will be no money to pay for imports. Argentina can make do without more Porsches and Gucci handbags, but the country will grind to a halt if industry and energy-producers can't get their hands on crucial imports. The factories will shut. Things will have to get really bad before we're in a "buy" situation. Pay attention if you turn on your TV and see news flashes of burning banks and of factories that don't have hard currency to buy raw materials, locking out their workers. If you turn on your TV a second day and see similar reports, then book your flight. Your dollars will go a long way.

Comparisons between the high-end neighborhoods of Paris and Buenos Aires are correct. It's a world-class capital with a wealth of cultural activities, fine dining, and shopping. Buy when the Argentine capital is in turmoil and you'll be sitting on prime real estate in one of the world's finest cities.

If you've ever dreamed of owning your own vineyard, I can think of no better place than Mendoza, Argentina's most famous wine-producing region. Mendoza sits at the foot of the Andes, 600 miles west of Buenos Aires. Soil and climate are perfect here for wine production.

Argentina long held promise. In 1900 it was the world's sixth-richest country — richer than the US. Immigrants flooded from Europe. The British came to build the railways. They brought along Irish and Italians. The Spanish came. What followed is text-book mismanagement. When it comes to a head again, we'll have a full-blown crisis. And an opportunity to pounce once more.

Regards,

Ronan McMahon
for The Daily Reckoning

Crisis Replay… Soon Argentina Will Be on Sale Again originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. ".


Early 2013: Prepare For A Massive Food Price Surge; Up 175% from the Year 2000

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 11:59 AM PDT

The after-effects of 2012′s summer drought are far from over. According to a new analysis from Rabobank this year's crop failure and premature slaughtering of pigs, cattle and other staple meats will lead to an average 15% surge in food prices in 2013.

It may not sound like much, but when you combine this with monetary easing that threatens to rapidly depreciate the value of the dollar and an already indebted U.S. consumer, we can expect even more participants to enter government nutritional assistance programs. It's more expensive than ever before just to stay alive.

The record US, and global, summer drought has come and gone but its aftereffects are only now going to be felt, at least according to a new Rabobank report, which asserts that food prices are about to soar by 15% or more following mass slaughter of farm animals which will cripple supply once the current inventory of meat is exhausted. From Sky News: "The worst drought in the US for almost a century, combined with droughts in South America and Russia, have hit the production of crops used in animal feed – such as corn and soybeans – especially hard, the report said. As a result farmers have begun slaughtering more pigs and cattle, temporarily increasing the meat supply – but causing a steep rise in the price of meat in the long-term as production slows. Read more...


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Ben Davies - This Move In Gold Will Take It To $2,400 -$2,500

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 11:48 AM PDT

Today Ben Davies spoke with King World News about why he believes the gold market is headed much higher than current levels. Davies made some bold predictions. Here is what the rising star had to say: "Right now, the best expression of our macro view is still to own gold and silver because we believe this is ultimately going to be the survivor of this Debt Supercycle. We believe it's going to be the surviving collateral."


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Bron Suchecki: How Much Gold Does China Have?

Posted: 20 Sep 2012 11:28 AM PDT

"It will be interesting to see how high this dollar index rally goes...as it is as much oversold as the precious metals are overbought." ...


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