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Monday, August 6, 2012

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Why eBay And Amazon Won't Topple Wal-Mart

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:52 AM PDT

By Shaun Connell:

eBay (EBAY) just announced "eBay Now," a new service that will allow some consumers to sign up for same-day shipping from local merchants in San Francisco for only $5.

This sounds like a small deal, but is likely going to change the face of how shopping is done, especially since we know that eBay won't be doing this alone.

Amazon Is Following Suit

Amazon (AMZN) is already building warehouses in major cities in an attempt to take Wal-Mart (WMT) and other retailers on with same-day shipping in the future. Soon, for a small fee, consumers will be able to get their shopping done online and have everything delivered within hours. This changes the nature of retail.

Companies like Wal-Mart, Target (TGT), Dollar General (DG), Hastings (HAST), and other retailers will all be impacted -- and not in a good way.

This Isn't the End of Wal-Mart


Complete Story »

Swedish Update: Much Good News Discounted

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:35 AM PDT

By Marc Chandler:

Since mid-May the Swedish krona has been the strongest of the major currencies, appreciating roughly 4.5% against the dollar and nearly 9% against the euro.

Sweden's interest rates are attractive, especially on a risk-adjusted basis. At 90 bp, the two-year note yield is considerably higher than attainable in the non-periphery of Europe and without taking on extra risk. In fact, all three main agencies recognize Sweden as a triple-A credit.

The market seems to concur. The 5-year credit default swap costs less than 45 bp. In dollar terms, only Norway costs less to insure. Moreover, the recent has been spectacular, suggesting ideas of a rate cut next month are a stretch. Last week saw a string of good economic news. The government reported Q2 GDP at 1.4% quarter-over-quarter (5.7% annualized). Economists and the central bank itself had anticipated growth of only about 0.2%. Although it is subject to revisions, the


Complete Story »

Kazakhstan Gold reserves hit $5.4 billion in July

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:32 AM PDT

from bullionstreet.com:

STANA(BullionStreet) : Nearly a month after announcing plans to raise the amount of gold it holds as part of its international reserves, Kazakhstan's gold reserves grew to $5.4 billion in July.

Country's central bank however said, net gold and foreign currency reserves fell to $28.5 billion as of July 31 from $31.8 billion on June 30.

The Central Asian nation's total international reserves, which also include the National Fund replenished by windfall revenues from oil exports, stood at $81.7 billion at the end of July, the bank said.

It said Kazakhstan's net foreign currency reserves totalled $23.6 billion in July, having decreased by $3.6 billion compared to the end of June.

Early last month, Kazakhstan announced plans to raise the amount of gold it holds as part of its international reserves to 20 percent from 15 percent.

Keep on reading @ bullionstreet.com

Q: Dude, Where’s My Gold? A: In The Vault

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:31 AM PDT

The precious metals conspiracy camp is possibly about to be dealt another blow by the near-completion of the audit (yes, audit) of the USA's gold being held at the NY Fed. The Treasury Department has been counting and drilling and drilling and counting the thousands of bullion ingots.

Treasury Is Auditing the Government’s Gold. Ho, Ho, Ho.

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:27 AM PDT

from teapartyeconomist.com:

The U.S. Treasury, which has not conducted an audit of the nation's gold since 1954, decided to do an audit of the gold stored at the New York Federal Reserve Bank, a private corporation.

This of course had nothing to do with the fact that the House of Representatives finally has demanded an audit — Ron Paul's bill. No, no, no: the audit began last January. The Treasury had no idea that the House might demand an audit. It's just that the Treasury decided to do an audit, just like t said it did in 1954.

There is no report yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

An audit, if valid, will cover the history of the ownership of the gold in the NY FED's vaults. Who owns it? What claims are held against it? This would have to go back to 1954 and move forward. We will see if this is done.

The Treasury is officially the owner of the gold. If any gold is missing, the Treasury will get blamed for malfeasance going back to 1954. This means that the Treasury has an incentive to avoid finding out if any gold is missing.

Keep on reading @ teapartyeconomist.com

Gold Medal: The Most Boring Conservative Press Release Wins Top Honors

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:24 AM PDT

from teapartyeconomist.com:

In every field, there is a standout. In swimming, it is Michael Phelps. In tennis, it is the Williams sisters. In the packed field of boring press releases, there is one unquestioned master: Taxpayers for Common Sense. This has been true for years.

As expected, in this year's Rhetorical Special Olympics, the gold medal went to TFCS.

This comes as no surprise to aficionados of press releases. Year after year, the TFCS has dazzled the PR world with its ability to turn interesting and even crucial discoveries about government malfeasance into narcoleptic masterpieces.

"Liberals try hard," said R. Blatant Duress, a long-time Washington Beltway insider, "but they cannot get the hang of it. With Taxpayers for Common Sense representing the conservative movement, the liberals don't stand a chance."

The TFCS won the gold with this stellar performance. The press release began with this paragraph — the paragraph which determines whether anyone will actually read the entire press release. Here is what the reader was forced to get through.

The Department of Energy (DOE) Loan Guarantee Program was created in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to provide Treasury-backed loan guarantees for selected energy projects. These include fossil fuel technologies such as coal-to-liquid, or converting coal into a liquid fuel through the Fischer Tropsch Process, and advanced coal gasification. Several companies are actively seeking these loan guarantees and currently being reviewed by the DOE loan guarantee office for final approval.

Keep on reading @ teapartyeconomist.com

Falklands Oil & Gas Signs A Favorable Farm Out Deal With Noble Energy

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:17 AM PDT

By Black Gold:

Today (August 6, 2012) Falklands Oil & Gas (FLKOF.PK) signed a farm out agreement with Noble Energy (NBL), with Noble taking a 35% working interest in most of Falkland's acreage. Noble is taking the 35% WI in everything FOGL owns except Loligo and Nimrod. FOGL on the London exchange is up 12% on the news. The press release is here.

A few takeaways from this news:

One of the most important things from this farm out is that FOGL has kept their full 75% interest in Loligo. Loligo is the ~5 billion barrel prospect that is about to spud (rig is at the location) with drilling expected to take two months. FOGL is retaining the potentially massive upside in Loligo and gaining the financial backing of Noble. I have previously tried to put a valuation on Loligo which you can read here.

Another interesting takeaway from the press release is:


Complete Story »

Gold seesaws as traders gauge payrolls

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:14 AM PDT

from marketwatch.com:

Gold for December delivery GCZ2 +0.00% recently advanced $3.60, or 0.2%, to trade at $1,612.60 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold futures snapped a three-day losing streak to post a winning session Friday after data showed the U.S. economy added 163,000 nonfarm jobs in July, topping the average forecast of a rise of 100,000. The unemployment rate, however, edged up to 8.3% from 8.2%.

Stronger economic data is a double-edged sword for gold, strategists at Credit Suisse said in a research note.

The dollar "tends to depreciate after good economic data due to reduced safe haven flows. That is positive for gold," they said. Good economic data, however, "means that there is a lower probability of further monetary easing, which is negative for gold. We think the most likely outcome for this week is sideways trading."

The dollar index DXY -.00% , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, declined to 82.307 from 82.39 in North American trade late Friday.

Other metals lost ground, with silver futures SIU2 +0.00% off 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.74 an ounce.

Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com

Trust Is Gone

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:13 AM PDT

Capitalism and society run on trust. When that breaks down, so do markets and civility. In the extreme we describe such events using words such as collapse, depression, barbarism and the like. Trust is the shield that keeps us from needing these words. Is trust increasing or decreasing in our society? To anyone with his

Gold Rises on Expectations of More US Stimulus

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:10 AM PDT

from cnbc.com:

Gold prices rose on Monday, extending the last session's recovery from four days of declines, as investors bet that Friday's better-than-expected jobs data would not be enough to head off another round of monetary easing in the United States.

The metal briefly dipped in the wake of data showing that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month but quickly rebounded as traders digested a rise in the jobless rate.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve [cnbc explains] may have to unleash another round of quantitative easing [cnbc explains] — essentially, printing money — to boost U.S. growth has firmly underpinned gold prices this year.

Further monetary easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom as well as weighing on the dollar and boosting inflation [cnbc explains] expectations in the longer run.

"There is still room for easing if it is required, and there is still a perception that it may be required," Mitsui Precious Metals analyst David Jollie said. "The question of when that is, with the U.S. elections approaching, makes it difficult to be super bullish on gold, but that doesn't alter the fact that (the perception is there)."

Keep on reading @ cnbc.com

PRECIOUS-Gold rises on expectations of more U.S. stimulus

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:06 AM PDT

from reuters.com:

* Quantitative easing hopes still alive after jobs data

* Euro remains under pressure, curbing gains in gold

* Platinum maintains more than $200/oz discount to gold (Updates prices)

By Jan Harvey

LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) – Gold prices rose on Monday, extending the last session's recovery from four days of declines, as investors bet that Friday's better-than-expected jobs data would not be enough to head off another round of monetary easing in the United States.

The metal briefly dipped in the wake of data showing that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month but quickly rebounded as traders digested a rise in the jobless rate.

Speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to unleash another round of quantitative easing – essentially, printing money – to boost U.S. growth has firmly underpinned gold prices this year.

Further monetary easing would maintain pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding gold at rock bottom as well as weighing on the dollar and boosting inflation expectations in the longer run.

"There is still room for easing if it is required, and there is still a perception that it may be required," Mitsui Precious Metals analyst David Jollie said.

"The question of when that is, with the U.S. elections approaching, makes it difficult to be super bullish on gold, but that doesn't alter the fact that (the perception is there)."

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,608.96 an ounce at 1202 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up $2.70 an ounce at $1,612.00.

Prices have traded within a tight $75 range for the past four weeks, supported by QE expectations but also under pressure from soft physical investment flows, lighter demand in key Asian markets and threats to the euro from the euro zone debt crisis.

The single currency was little changed on Monday, with investors still cautious about how effective European policymakers' latest pledges to resolve the bloc's debt crisis would be.

European equities rose meanwhile to touch fresh four-month highs on Monday, with investors reluctant to push the market too far down in the face of the European Central Bank's pledge to step in and fight the euro zone debt crisis.

Keep on reading @ reuters.com

ECB: decrease of oz1931,71 in gold and gold receivables

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 08:04 AM PDT

Don't Get Pulled Into A Seductive Pre-Earnings Options Trap

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:58 AM PDT

Bybrnichols:

This article deals with a common mistake made by many retail investors, overpaying for options in the days leading up to the release of company earnings. Since Amazon's (AMZN) earnings were released last Thursday July 26 after market close, I will use Amazon Inc. as the subject.

A fellow Seeking Alpha contributor (Russell Gold) presented this scenario in a recent article entitled, "Trading Amazon before Earnings":

Employ the straddle option strategy for a bullish outlook on AMZN earnings, a trader enters into two option positions, one call and one put. The trader wants to purchase 10 contracts (1


Complete Story »

Four-Year Silver Probe Set to be Dropped

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:39 AM PDT

from cnbc.com:

A four-year investigation into the possible manipulation of the the silver market looks increasingly likely to be dropped after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission first announced that it was investigating "complaints of misconduct in the silver market" in September 2008, following a barrage of allegations of manipulation from a group of precious metals investors.

In 2010, Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, said that he believed there had been "fraudulent efforts" to "deviously control" the silver price [XAG= 27.82 0.07 (+0.25%) ].

But after taking advice from two external consultancies, the first of which found irregularities on certain trading dates that it believed deserved more analysis, CFTC staff do not have sufficient evidence to bring a case, according to the people familiar with the situation.

The agency's five commissioners have not yet formally determined the outcome of the investigation, leaving the possibility that staff could be instructed to dig deeper. A CFTC spokesman said: "The investigation has not reached its conclusion". He declined further comment.

Keep on reading @ cnbc.com

Don Coxe – Get Ready, Gold To Re-Enter The Financial System

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:34 AM PDT

from kingworldnews.com:

Today King World News is pleased to share with its global readers the investment recommendations of 40 year veteran Don Coxe. Coxe believes, "This schizophrenic period of gold and gold stock valuation is unsustainable." He feels very strongly that "Investors need to invest where the demand is—and will be for coming decades."

Coxe, who is Global Strategy Advisor to BMO ($538 billion in assets), also warned, "We remain of the view that what might be the only way for the eurozone to assemble enough firepower to give credibility to the markets is for governments which have gold to use it to back very long-term convertible bonds."

Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com

India Blackout & Knight Algo: US-India CYBER WAR Over Iranian Oil Purchases in GOLD

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:31 AM PDT

from silverdoctors.com:

India without electricity, without computers, without light, without trains, without industry …
Main stream medias, as usual, are telling fairy tales to the public.
A lack of rain, which forced farmers to pump into the groundwater, triggering an over-consumption of electricity, which has unbalanced the Indian power grid. Then, dominoes fell bringing the country into darkness.
India is the 6th largest electricity producer in the world, but its population and economic growth are such that production is struggling to meet demand. India knows an energy deficit of 8 to 12%. This is probably India's Achilles' heel.
India recently defied US Iranian oil sanctions by purchasing Iranian crude with GOLD.
On the night of Sunday to Monday, from 29 to 30 July, a giant power outage blocked much of the country. 48 hours later, a new black-out created a real chaos….. Pure chance?
NATURAL GAS, GOLD & CURRENCY WAR
Submitted in English to SD by French analyst Menthalo
A few weeks ago, India defied Washington and circumvented the Iranian trade ban given by the US Empire to trade with Iran by barter: Iranian gas for Indian gold. Doing so, India was playing the monetary policy advocated by China and the rebels to the hegemony of the dollar. The Indian electric breakdown was Washington's answer .
There are 1000 ways to make war without waking the sheep-like mass.
Israel and the U.S. have developed a series of computer viruses to attack Iranian nuclear power plants. This is not the scenario of a new James Bond, but the real information revealed by the New York Times. According to experts of the "Stuxnet" who developed the virus, this virus' attack would have to postpone for five years the implementation of Iran's nuclear program. Moshe Yaalon, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs acknowledged the facts: "it is justified, for anyone who believes the Iranian threat as a significant threat to take various measures, including this one, to stop it." Since new viruses have been discovered, "Flame" and recently "Duqu", both viruses derived from Stuxnet and therefore developed by the same teams.

Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com

Libor May Be Manipulated, But Silver Is Not, CFTC To Conclude

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:28 AM PDT

from zerohedge.com:

In what may be the most amusing news of the day, according to the FT the CFTC will shortly drop its 4 year old investigation into silver manipulation, "after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation." How about evidence to support an "illegal" case? Of course, that this is happening after the recent discovery that the world's most pervasive fixed income benchmark was manipulated for years, if not decades, can only be reason for laughter and wonder if the CFTC used the same assiduous diligence methods in pursuing the alleged perpetrators of precious metal manipulation as it did in letting the fraud at PFG slip through its fingers for two decades. We will probably never know, or at least not until an email mentioning bottles of Bollinger and silver price "fixing", (or "banging the close" for that matter) in the same sentence inexplicably turns up and makes a complete mockery of the CFTC yet again.

From the FT:

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission first announced that it was investigating "complaints of misconduct in the silver market" in September 2008, following a barrage of allegations of manipulation from a group of precious metals investors.

In 2010, Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, said that he believed there had been "fraudulent efforts" to "deviously control" the silver price.

But after taking advice from two external consultancies, the first of which found irregularities on certain trading dates that it believed deserved more analysis, CFTC staff do not have sufficient evidence to bring a case, according to the people familiar with the situation.

The CFTC has analysed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses since it began investigating the market in 2008, it said last year. The people familiar with the situation said the evidence included records from JPMorgan.

The conclusion of the investigation will come as a relief to JPMorgan. Although no company or individual was named in the CFTC investigation, the Wall Street bank has suffered a torrent of allegations from silver investors on the blogosphere.

Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com

Curiouser: Bart Chilton Informs the Press About the Erroneous Report on Silver

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:08 AM PDT

5 Profitable Large Caps Flush With Cash

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 07:07 AM PDT

By ZetaKap:

It's understandable that some investors prefer to steer clear of large cap stocks because of the perception that the glory days of fast growth have come and gone. However, with the right analysis it is possible to find opportunities with these more established companies. Today we focused on profit and liquidity. All of the large cap stocks profiled below are strong in both categories. Take a look to see if any spark your curiosity.

The Operating Profit Margin is a profitability ratio that measures the effectiveness of the company's operating efficiency. This metric allows investors to see how much profit is left after all variable costs are covered. If the company's margin is increasing over time this means that it's earning more per dollar of sales. Finding trends in the Operating Profit Margin helps investors identify companies that are improving profitability over time and managing the economic landscape better than


Complete Story »

HSBC predicts gold rally to $1,900+ by year-end

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 06:46 AM PDT

A Price Shock For Canadian Natural Gas?

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 06:44 AM PDT

Will Canadian natural gas producers fill up Canadian storage for the first time ever this year? And does that mean Canadian gas prices completely collapse to zero? Who decides how much gas a producer can ship to market in that case?

The Canadian gas storage market is very close to being full right now-much earlier than normal in the gas injection season, which lasts from mid-spring to late fall. Gas withdrawal season is from fall through winter and early spring, when heating demand uses much more than producers can bring up.

This chart from Calgary's ARC Financial Corp. weekly Energy Charts tells the tale:

(click to enlarge)

In the US analysts are talking about theoretical full storage just before withdrawal season starts. But in Canada, the issue is more immediate-still hypothetical, but certainly still possible..

"If storage did get full, it would only be for 1-2 months in a worst


Complete Story »

Gold and Silver Continue Marking Time

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 06:26 AM PDT

from traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca:

Both Gold and Silver remain in consolidation patterns with tightening ranges as speculative HOT money flows which are exiting are being met by value-based buying and accumulation by stronger hands.

The loss of speculative interest in the precious metals over the last few months can be seen by the steady decline in overall open interest (the number of contracts open). Generally speaking, whenever speculators are interested in establishing positions in a particular market, the open interest will rise. When they are not, the open interest will fall.

Keep on reading @ traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca

Ranting Andy on ‘Gold as Money’ and What to Do Now to Protect Yourself Before It’s Too Late

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 06:25 AM PDT

from thedailybell.com:

The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with Andy Hoffman (left).

Introduction: Andrew ("Andy") Hoffman, CFA joined Miles Franklin as marketing director in October 2011. For a decade, he was a US-based buy-side and sell-side analyst, most notably as an II-ranked oil service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney from 1999 through 2005. Since 2002, his focus has been entirely on precious metals, and since 2006 has written free missives regarding gold, silver and macroeconomics under the moniker "Ranting Andy." Prior to joining the company he spent five years working as an investor relations officer or consultant to numerous junior mining companies. An archive of Andy's "RANTS" can be found on the Miles Franklin Blog.

Daily Bell: Hi. Biographies about you are hard to find. Give us a sense of where you came from, how you ended up at Miles Franklin and what you do for them.

Andy Hoffman: I guess it's because I'm so SECRETIVE. Just kidding. I've been writing publicly about precious metals for nearly a decade and am very candid about my beginnings. I'm from Long Island, New York but moved to Denver five years ago. I received my CFA 15 years ago, and worked on Wall Street from my first internship at Paine Webber in 1989 until I left the business for good in 2005. I was a bond broker at Cantor Fitzgerald for three years, a buy-side analyst/trader for two years and a sell-side analyst covering oilfield service stocks for seven, the last six at Salomon Smith Barney, where my team was one of the industry's top-ranked for four straight years.

Keep on reading @ thedailybell.com

In Order To Be Saved, Spain And Italy Must First Be Destroyed

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 06:22 AM PDT

from zerohedge.com:

There has been much confusion over last week's remarks by Mario Draghi, with the prevailing narrative being that the market first got what Draghi meant wrong (when it plunged), then right (when it soared). The confusion is further granulated by attempts to explain what was merely a desperate attempt at delaying a decision for action, which was inevitable considering the now open opposition by Buba's Weidmann, into a formal and planned plotline: "Inverse Twist" or other such technical jargon is what we have seen floating around. The reality is that, just like all other central bankers, Draghi did what he does best: use big words and threats of action in hope it will buy him a few extra days of time. The reality is also that, just like when the LTRO was announced, the market did get it right initially, when peripheral bonds plunged, and got it wrong over the subsequent 3 months when bond prices rose, only to collapse to new lows (and in the case of Spain – record high yields as of two weeks ago). Back then, the ECB merely bought a few months time with its transitory intervention. This time it has at best bought a few days with the lack of any actual action. And yet, Draghi did leave a way out, for at least another brief respite (where unless Europe expands the available bailout machinery yet again, the respite will have an even briefer half life than that from the LTROs). The way out is simple, and in order to avoid any confusion, we will use an allegory from the movie Batman: Spain and Italy can be saved. But first they must be destroyed.

Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com

Likelihood "Remains High" for Central Bank Stimulus

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 05:47 AM PDT

Both the spot gold and spot silver price posted gains in Monday morning's London trading, with the gold price hitting $1,610 an ounce – a few dollars up on where it ended last week – as stocks and the euro also rallied.

Hecla and US Silver

Posted: 06 Aug 2012 05:17 AM PDT

Wallace Street Journal

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