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- Margin Call Levity
- Michael Cuggino's Long-Term Capital Growth Strategy
- MasterCard - Attractive Fundamentals At Fair Price
- Good Puplava interview this weekend
- General Motors - Opel And Pension Obligations Continue To Drag Shares Down
- Financial Gremlins Revisited: A Demon of Our Own Design Review
- Could Zynga Make Back The Money It Spent Acquiring OMGPOP?
- Who To Blame For Failed IPOs
- Why Chesapeake's Shares Could Double With Natural Gas By Winter
- Ranting Andy on 'Gold as Money' and What to Do Now to Protect Yourself Before It's To
- Ronald Reagan – Nomination Acceptance Speech of 1984
- Links for 2012-08-04 [del.icio.us]
- Hoard of Crusader Gold Found in Ruins
- Gold gains on economic data, lower dollar
- Gold climbs as US jobless rate increases
- Gold up 1pc, stimulus hopes alive after payrolls
- This Is The Next Destructive Move By Central Planners
- GGR finds confirmation of gold's rally in ‘managed money' short covering
- Dissing Price Discovery
- SilverFuturist: Setting Silver Rumors Straight
- Terd Ferg: Keynesianism is Dying
| Posted: 05 Aug 2012 12:18 PM PDT And now for something completely different...
For a taste of what the full scene looked like, here is a small part of it.
Finally, here's the movie trailer for those who have access to On Demand.
The movie is worth the time to view. Okay, back to the, uh, "vacation." |
| Michael Cuggino's Long-Term Capital Growth Strategy Posted: 05 Aug 2012 11:21 AM PDT By Kapitall: "Investors looking for growth would be wise to have part of their portfolio in equities," says Michael Cuggino, President and Portfolio Manager of Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds (PRPFX). "Historically, and despite their volatility, they provide the best returns over time." The billion-dollar question, of course, is how to approach the 4,800+ equities and 1,300+ exchange traded funds on the market. Naturally, different investors have different ideas. Here's why we took note of Cuggino's: His Permanent Portfolio is a 5-star fund and one of the funds within the Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds, which ranks in the top 1% of its Morningstar category on a 5 Complete Story » |
| MasterCard - Attractive Fundamentals At Fair Price Posted: 05 Aug 2012 10:06 AM PDT By Robert Broens: Shares of global payment company MasterCard (MA) lost almost 3% over the past week. On Wednesday, the company published its second quarter results. Second Quarter Results MasterCard reported a 15% increase in net income to $700 million, or $5.55 per diluted share. The results include a $13 million after-tax charge related to the U.S. merchant litigation. Excluding the impact of the charge, earnings came in at $5.65 per share, beating analysts consensus of $5.58 per share. Recently, payment companies settled with U.S. merchants for $6.6 billion. MasterCard's share in the settlement was $790 million, however the company already took a $770 million charge in the fourth quarter. Net revenues increased 9% to $1.82 billion, or 13% on a constant currency basis. A stronger U.S. dollar was impacting nominal U.S. dollar revenue growth for MasterCard, as the company has significant international operations. On average, analysts have been looking for the company Complete Story » |
| Good Puplava interview this weekend Posted: 05 Aug 2012 09:54 AM PDT Interviews the guy who runs NANEX.. These guys handed the SEC everything they needed to discover parties responsible for the 2010 flash crash and the several hundreds that have occurred since. But instead of the SEC using the info, the SEC just came after NANEX instead to protect it's banker overlords. IMO we are entering a whole new era regarding the triumph of the kleptocrats and merging of the banking cartel and government to steal whatever's left of the world's unencumbered assets. Not sure if any of you follow his show but lately he's getting way more aggressive calling out the fraud on WS.. Puplava runs probably close to $1B in assets across his funds and clients so he's always been quite guarded in choosing his words.. But in this interview he tells NANEX, in response to hearing NANEX's pile of evidence "I'm surprised you didn't get audited".. Jim finally coming out.. good news.. Here's link: http://www.financialsense.com/financ...ght-securities . |
| General Motors - Opel And Pension Obligations Continue To Drag Shares Down Posted: 05 Aug 2012 09:30 AM PDT By Robert Broens: Shares of car manufacturer General Motors (GM) ended the week 2% higher after the company reported its second quarter earnings on Thursday. Second Quarter Results General Motors reported second quarter income of $1.5 billion, or $0.90 per diluted share. Last year the company reported earnings of $1.54 per share. Net profits fell 41% in the second quarter as a result of GM's loss-making operations in Europe. Revenues decreased from last year's $39.4 billion to $37.6 billion, almost entirely due to the impact from a strengthening in the US dollar. CEO and Chairman Dan Akerson commented, "our results in North America, our International Operations and at GM Financial were solid but we clearly have more work to do to offset the headwinds we face, especially in regions like Europe and South America." Segmental Information The North America division reported a 1% decline in revenues to $22.9 billion. Operating income came in Complete Story » |
| Financial Gremlins Revisited: A Demon of Our Own Design Review Posted: 05 Aug 2012 09:28 AM PDT
Not new stuff, to be sure. But the recent HFT (high frequency trading) troubles of Knight Capital Group – and the spectacle of a complex "algo" running off the rails, to the tune of $440 million in losses, for 30 minutes straight with no "off switch" to be found – makes the discussion points newly relevant. The problems experienced by Knight are something of a "gray swan:" An event that is unpredictable in timing or magnitude, but was bound to happen at some point (and thus not truly a surprise). Such is the nature of tightly coupled complexity applied at scale. The remarkable thing was how resilient the system proved in the aftermath of the algo blow-up… but next time, will we be so lucky? The Wisdom of the Cockroach: "A Demon of Our Own Design" Review In recounting his time as risk manager at a number of prominent houses (Morgan Stanley, Salomon Brothers, Citigroup etc.), Bookstaber completes the i-banking trifecta. First there was the Michael Lewis classic, Liar's Poker, detailing the juvenile bravado and macho antics of the trading floor. Then Jonathan Knee gave an intimate portrait of the i-banker deal-making culture with The Accidental Investment Banker. And now, in A Demon of Our Own Design, we get a glimpse at the risk management side of things… a sort of master plumber's walking tour through the bowels of the system, with technical descriptions of exactly what happens when pipes burst and boilers explode. (Some will find Bookstabers' level of detail intolerably dull; others will find it quite fascinating. I was in the fascinated camp.) New opportunities for capital raising and growth! A "game changer" is coming… the new JOBS Act legislation has created unprecedented opportunity for hedge fund managers Stay ahead of the curve -- click here for Hedge Fund Regulation Alerts Nature of the beast In describing the finer points of risk arbitrage, Bookstaber explains why it's normal — expected even — for trading desks to take a good whack every so often. The nature of the beast is to make relatively steady profits, month in and month out, and then give back a chunk of those profits when something goes haywire. (That's how you move huge sums on an arb desk; grind out small bets that are almost guaranteed to work, juice up the returns with leverage, and try not to be in the vicinity when the rare position goes kablooey.) In light of this general modus operandi, perhaps it isn't surprising that the "quant" funds recently took a major hit (as of September 2007). They had been minting money for an extraordinarily long period, had the leverage to show for it, and now, after the recent "oops," seem to be generally back in business. In fact it appears natural for much of Wall Street to work in this "make a little, lose a lot" fashion… the key idea being that all the little updrafts make up for the once-in-a-blue-moon downdrafts. (Such calculus works better for the fee collectors than the fee payers, but that's a different kettle of fish.) Bookstaber's detail-rich description of the various trades that investment houses put on, many of them lasting years, is also enlightening. The details seem to confirm that, by and large, Wall Street is a gigantic, slow moving, conventional-returns type machine. (And what else could it be, really, with such an ocean of capital to allocate and so many jobs to fill? There is only so much creativity and contrarianism to go round.) A dangerous combination Risk manager war stories aside, Bookstaber's goal is to hammer home a key philosophical point regarding risk. He wants readers to understand that financial markets are inherently unstable, and this reality places limits on how far we (or anyone) should go in pursuit of outsized returns. To make his point, Bookstaber uses various analogies to describe how the market is a highly complex, tightly coupled system… and to explain why the combination of high complexity and tight coupling is particularly dangerous. The counterexample Bookstaber gives of a highly complex, loosely coupled system is the US Postal Service. The USPS has countless potential points of failure and myriad moving parts, but there are no catastrophic linkages involved. A lost package does not set off a disastrous daisy chain of events in which millions of packages are lost. In contrast, the classic example of a highly complex, tightly coupled system is a nuclear reactor. The reactor is tightly coupled because any point of failure can lead to a knock-on chain reaction; one small thing going wrong can set the entire mechanism on a path to disaster. Being a highly complex, tightly coupled system, the market is less like the postal service and more like the nuclear reactor, in that the combination of aggressive leverage, complex methodologies and heavily interlocking parts leads to significant potential for catastrophe.  Exquisitely adapted Another serious problem is Wall Street's deeply ingrained tendency to push the envelope. (Richard Lowenstein put it exceptionally well in his book Origins of the Crash: "Finance has its own Peter Principle, by which a successful model will be adapted to progressively riskier causes until it fails.") In this habit of fighting for every inch of profit, Wall Street is like a self-evolving animal overquick to embrace the particulars of its immediate environment. The more precisely an animal is attuned to a particular "fitness landscape," the better that animal can thrive… in the short term at least, as long as everything stays just so. To be exquisitely adapted (as opposed to robustly adapted) is to be vulnerable to the slightest change. Thus when the fitness landscape DOES change — as it inevitably will — the heavily specialized competitors tend to get crushed (if not go extinct). If a strategy-gone-sour broadsides a large enough group of market participants, the entire financial ecosystem can be thrown into turmoil. When the turmoil from this upheaval spills into the broader economy, wreaking havoc in its wake, the "demon" spoken of in the book's title is unleashed. (As this reviewer interprets it anyway.) Wisdom of the cockroach So the problem, in sum, is Wall Street's tendency to `overadapt' to every appealing landscape it encounters, building up complexity and leverage to dangerous levels in doing so. Bookstaber's suggestion is to heed the wisdom of the cockroach. The cockroach has survived a longer time span, and a wider variety of harsh environments, than humans could ever match. It is one of the creatures man cannot wipe out no matter how hard he tries. And yet, the cockroach's key risk management strategy is embarrassingly simple… simpler, even, than putting in a stop loss. The deeper point is that simple equals robust; by refusing to get fancy, and sticking with the tried-and-true, the cockroach ensures its reign as champion survivor. Bookstaber uses the cockroach (and other examples from nature) to argue that we, too, should consider cutting back on our excessively specialized ways. The cost of a rough-edged strategy is forgoing excess profits in accomodative environments… but the benefit is increased likelihood of survival in a much wider range of environments, including the truly harsh ones. (As Jim Grant likes to joke, if so many of these credit-driven vehicles can barely handle prosperity, how are they supposed to fare when adversity hits?)  Harrumphs all round Bookstaber's finger-wagging solution (be less fancy; take less risk) has the ring of common sense to it, especially in the way it frustrates all those market participants determined to have their cake and eat it too. For those who seek to wring every last nickel out of the market (as LTCM used to brag of doing), Bookstaber argues persuasively that flying too close to the sun will always be perilous. The commitment to leveraging every edge on a broad scale inevitably leads to disaster-prone configurations, no matter how smart the players. For those who think the answer is greater regulation of markets, i.e. more rules, Bookstaber shows how extra layers of bureaucracy can actually bring about the exact opposite of the intended affect. Perversely, layers of red tape can (and often do) make a situation more risky, by increasing confusion and complacency simultaneously. Nor is greater information disclosure the answer. If the market's traditional liquidity providers (traders, market makers, speculators etc.) are forced to disclose their positions to the world in real time, they will react in the manner of poker players forced to play their hands face-up. To the extent that disclosure resolves uncertainty, it also drives market participants from the game. And because "liquidity is a coward" as the old saying goes, always running away when you need it most, strict disclosure rules would likely make bad market conditions worse at the least opportune times. Some left smiling Two groups in particular may be left smiling at the end of this book — value investors and trend followers. In both the theory and practice of their normal operations, value investors and trend followers intuitively embraced Bookstaber's message a long long time ago, favoring longevity and robusticity over the temptations of adjusting to the moment. It is perhaps not surprising, then, that value investors and trend followers are arguably the most profitable market participants by far on an absolute-dollar basis, hauling in hundreds of billions in profit over the course of many decades. They are champion survivors too… with a touch more class than the cockroach. Robust and Loosely Coupled, JS (jack@mercenarytrader.com) Buy "A Demon of Our Own Design" on Amazon p.s. Like this article? For more, visit our Knowledge Center!p.p.s. Break the Institutional Barrier - and Substantially Increase Assets Under Management! Access our FREE report to find out how... |
| Could Zynga Make Back The Money It Spent Acquiring OMGPOP? Posted: 05 Aug 2012 07:57 AM PDT By TechCrunch: By Chris Velazco Peter Deng was joined on our Facebook Ecosystem CrunchUp stage by Zynga product development VP Sean Kelly, Bump CEO David Lieb, and Xyologic co-founder Matthaus Krzykowski to tackle the prospect of creating and nurturing "modern" mobile applications. One of the juicier tidbits that came to light during the panel came courtesy of Zynga's Kelly, who noted he believed that the company would make its money back on its multi-million dollar OMGPOP acquisition. "It's been a good contributor to our numbers," Kelly said to moderator Kim-Mai Cutler. Fine, it may not be the most shocking revelation considering how vehemently the social gaming company has defended its purchase of the Draw Something creator since it all went down back in late March, but Kelly did note that the company learned quite a bit from the process. He notes that towards the beginning, popularity was so high that users would Complete Story » |
| Posted: 05 Aug 2012 07:43 AM PDT By TechCrunch: By Alexander Haislip Praise be to Box, the cloud storage company that recently waggled $125 million from private investors to continue its growth trajectory, expand internationally and continue ratcheting up its valuation into the billion-dollar range. There's a lot to like in this story, starting with Box's service. I pulled Box into our company and we use it religiously to version control internal documents. It's awesome and Aaron Levie and his team deserve to get rich from their hard work. And 15 years ago, you could have gotten rich from his work too. Levie would have brought his company to the public markets, seeking growth capital, and you could have invested and watched Box grow from a $600 million valuation last year to a $1.2 billion valuation today. Box would have been open to average investors, folks aiming to see capital appreciation in the public markets and a modest return Complete Story » |
| Why Chesapeake's Shares Could Double With Natural Gas By Winter Posted: 05 Aug 2012 07:29 AM PDT By Hawkinvest: Everyone knows that it is best to buy assets when they are unloved and cheap. The problem is that few investors want to buy a depressed asset when no one else seems to want it. However, investors like Warren Buffett and Wilbur Ross have made huge fortunes and both are now billionaires because they have bought what's cheap, and not what's popular. You don't see these brilliant investors buying the latest hyped-up IPO, but rather value-oriented assets. Not that many years ago, gold was trading for even less than $300 per ounce, but now it is close to $1,600 per ounce. Gold is a prime example of how a natural resource asset can see a huge change in price and investor interest. It has parallels to natural gas because when few investors wanted gold at $300 per ounce, many mines were not able to produce it at a profit. But Complete Story » |
| Ranting Andy on 'Gold as Money' and What to Do Now to Protect Yourself Before It's To Posted: 05 Aug 2012 07:18 AM PDT Ranting Andy on 'Gold as Money' and What to Do Now to Protect Yourself Before It's Too Late Sunday, August 05, 2012 – with Anthony Wile The Daily Bell is pleased to present this exclusive interview with Andy Hoffman (left). Introduction: Andrew ("Andy") Hoffman, CFA joined Miles Franklin as marketing director in October 2011. For a decade, he was a US-based buy-side and sell-side analyst, most notably as an II-ranked oil service analyst at Salomon Smith Barney from 1999 through 2005. Since 2002, his focus has been entirely on precious metals, and since 2006 has written free missives regarding gold, silver and macroeconomics under the moniker "Ranting Andy." Prior to joining the company he spent five years working as an investor relations officer or consultant to numerous junior mining companies. An archive of Andy's "RANTS" can be found on the Miles Franklin Blog. Daily Bell: Hi. Biographies about you are hard to find. Give us a sense of where you came from, how you ended up at Miles Franklin and what you do for them. Andy Hoffman: I guess it's because I'm so SECRETIVE. Just kidding. I've been writing publicly about precious metals for nearly a decade and am very candid about my beginnings. I'm from Long Island, New York but moved to Denver five years ago. I received my CFA 15 years ago, and worked on Wall Street from my first internship at Paine Webber in 1989 until I left the business for good in 2005. I was a bond broker at Cantor Fitzgerald for three years, a buy-side analyst/trader for two years and a sell-side analyst covering oilfield service stocks for seven, the last six at Salomon Smith Barney, where my team was one of the industry's top-ranked for four straight years. Fed up with Wall Street's corruption – which I experienced first-hand at Salomon and its parent, Citigroup, and already 100% invested in precious metals (since 2002), I worked as an investor relations officer or consultant to several dozen junior miners for five years. All along (starting in 2003), I was writing FREE missives helping to educate people on the COLLAPSING global financial system, with my "Ranting Andy" moniker coined by Bill Murphy of GATA circa 2009. In 2011, Miles Franklin's founder – David Schectman – came across my writings and asked me to join his firm – one of the nation's largest bullion dealers – as head of marketing. It is my calling in life and I love every aspect of the position. Daily Bell: As director of marketing are you wedded to the idea of honest money or are competitive currencies a good step toward private monetary freedom? Andy Hoffman: As noted above, I have been 100% invested in the sector since 2002, and over the past few years have converted ALL my mining shares to PHYSICAL bullion. It took me this long to fully understand that ONLY PHYSICAL gold and silver meet the criterion of "money," as PROVEN by the fact that EVERY fiat currency in history has collapsed. Today will be no different, other than that we are in the ONLY period of history where ALL currencies are fiat. Thus, the implosion will be cataclysmic. Daily Bell: What do you think of Greenbackerism? Public banking generally? Andy Hoffman: I had not heard that term until now, but by Googling it, it confirmed my initial view. As you can imagine by what I wrote above, I believe FIAT currency to be the root of nearly ALL the world's economic woes, starting with the partial abandonment of the gold standard at Bretton Woods (in 1944) and ending with its total desertion (in 1971). "Banks" used to play a useful role in society, but thanks to lobbying have liberated themselves from "rules" and now DESTROY capital via casino investments and ownership of the MONEY PRINTING Fed. Banks have always taken over the governments of FIAT currency based economies – and DESTROYED them – and the situation is no different today. Banks no longer lend, but speculate and steal. Daily Bell: What about Georgism and mutual or social credit? Both have more adherents these days. Andy Hoffman: I had to look this one up as well, defined in Wikipedia as the belief that people should own what they create, but that things found in nature, most importantly land, belong equally to all. This is a very generic definition, but doesn't pose any real red flags to me. That said, I can see how it could be "interpreted" as endorsing socialism, a dangerous precedent when central planners start playing Robin Hood. Daily Bell: There are some among mutual creditors who believe price inflation is a monetary good. Your take? Andy Hoffman: Where are the "other mutual creditors"? They should be reading the DICTIONARY, which defines price inflation as a monetary phenomenon. Yes, there are specific instances where price inflation is caused by demand – such as iPhones or sold-out concert tickets. However, nearly ALL other instances are caused by excessive MONEY PRINTING. This has been PROVEN throughout history, including in the US – where we had essentially ZERO inflation before creation of the Federal Reserve. Daily Bell: Is there such a thing as deflation? Or as Murray Rothbard believed, deflation is merely the outcome of a kind hyper-inflation? Andy Hoffman: Per above, the opposite of inflation (an increase in the money supply) is deflation (a decrease in the money supply). It is possible in a REAL MONEY standard, but not a FIAT one, which by definition is a PONZI SCHEME that MUST grow larger to continue existing. Hence, "QE to Infinity." That said, in a contracting economy (in a fiat system where money supply continues to grow), only items one NEEDS to live on rise in value in real terms, while those that people simply WANT decline in real terms. And by the way, the latter category includes HOUSES, which one does not NEED to own. All you NEED is shelter, which can be obtained by RENTING. I wrote an article describing this dichotomy a few months back, titled "WANT VERSUS NEED". Daily Bell: Who invented money? Greenbacker Ellen Brown believes the state did. Andy Hoffman: Again, ONLY PHYSICAL gold and silver meet the full definitions of "money," with all other imitations failing over time. No one "invented" it; mankind just figured out that only gold and silver create a stable monetary system. As for fiat, the Chinese invented it perhaps 1,000 years ago, the first of many governments that have destroyed their societies with worthless paper. Daily Bell: There is a whole mythology about money now – that gold and silver belong to so-called money lenders (a euphemism) and that history is a struggle between these money lenders and those that want the state to control money with or without interest. Are you aware of this and do you have any comment if you are? Andy Hoffman: I am not aware of a specific conspiracy, but the fact remains that BANKERS have used their "leverage" in the economy for thousands of years, negotiating positions of power in government as we have today. And EVERY TIME they have destroyed society, forcing its monetary system to "reboot." Daily Bell: Arguments are made, for instance, that Rome under Caesar and England under Elizabeth were successful states because the state issued currency, not private moneylenders. Our idea is that those who believe in paper money issued by the state are in some sense attracted to authoritarianism. Your response? Andy Hoffman: These are very deep questions, but more importantly I do not have the FACTS to determine what happened during those specific periods of history. That said, the Romans – in general – famously destroyed their currency by "clipping coins"; that is, taking what was once REAL MONEY (gold and silver coins) and turning them into worthless ones, whose supply became governed by Emperors. The result was the same then, as always. In Olde England, if their currency survived for long periods of time, you can bet it was because they were using REAL MONEY, not fiat. Daily Bell: A small state is better than a large state, but the bothersome thing about these arguments is that they encourage statism. These arguments propose a small state instead of no state and by doing so, they implicitly or explicitly endorse state power. Isn't it better to delineate what the state is without endorsing it? Andy Hoffman: I am sorry if I'm a bit out of my element here, as politics are neither my expertise nor an area of great interest for me. That said, I am 100% against BIG GOVERNMENT of all types, as the bigger they get, the more damage they cause. ALWAYS! Daily Bell: Let's talk about some issues you've written on recently. Explain what a negative interest rate is and how it is coming to pass. Andy Hoffman: When I was a student, textbooks (college finance and the CFA) didn't even discuss such an inane topic. Can you imagine paying the bank to hold your money? Let alone, TODAY'S INSOLVENT, CRIMINAL BANKS? Per my recent RANT, "NIRP VS. GOLD," "negative interest rate policy" represents, in my view, the final phase of economic collapse. In other words, an essentially "impossible" situation created solely by MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION, and PROPAGANDA. How long have we been told by PM bashers – who have been wrong for 12 years – that we shouldn't own gold and silver because they pay no yield? Well, guess what? Gold and silver now pay MORE yield (at 0%) than many banks and sovereign nations – with VASTLY less risk. Daily Bell: At FreedomFest 2012 you ran into Kerry Lutz of the Financial Survival Network. What did you tell him about the secondary market? Andy Hoffman: Kerry is a good friend and a great financial mind, and Miles Franklin is proud to sponsor his website. We discussed many things, particularly our ongoing belief that LACK OF SUPPLY will define the "end" of the PM bull market. Just as in late 2008, when PHYSICAL supply was GONE during a time of major crisis – yielding EXPLODING premiums and delivery wait times – we will see it again. Only this time, the crisis will be VASTLY worse, and NOT able to be quelled by new MONEY PRINTING. In other words, if you don't have your metal when the END GAME commences, you may NEVER get it. Daily Bell: You wrote about a global crash recently. What's the timeline, in your view? Andy Hoffman: I am 1,000% sure it is coming, and have been for years. However, I have been far more vocal in the past year; and thus far, PROVEN correct at every turn. The only reason it hasn't happened yet – although if you live in Greece or Spain you might disagree – is the aforementioned MONEY PRINTING, MARKET MANIPULATION and PROPAGANDA. It is the ONLY arrow left in TPTB's quiver and, as you can see, it is NO LONGER WORKING. Banks and sovereign bonds are collapsing and ALL global economies are in recession – with some already in DEPRESSION. If "the system" is still intact a year from now, I will have to be defibrillated. Daily Bell: Are banks running out of money? Why haven't US banks issued the money that has been printed for them by the Fed? Andy Hoffman: "Running out" is the understatement of the century. They are COMPLETELY, UTTERLY insolvent, with the doors only held open by fraudulent accounting (see BAC and JPM's recent earnings, as well as the 2009 FASB rule changes allowing banks to arbitrarily value balance sheet assets) and the Fed's "ZIRP" program. In other words, the Fed PRINTS MONEY and gives it to banks to keep them from announcing bankruptcy. That's why the banks no longer lend, and why they'd rather hold dead real estate properties than sell them and realize actual losses. They WILL all die, likely together – although weak links will start to go first, such as the Morgan Stanleys, Credit Agricoles, and Royal Bank of Scotlands of the world. Daily Bell: What is the "world's most dangerous wildcard"? Andy Hoffman: Governments – painted into corners like trapped rates – issuing draconian, rights-stealing orders and initiating deadly, hyperinflationary wars. Daily Bell: You have written about the real truth as you see it of America's devastating wars, citing incriminating details not published in US "Ministry of Truth" textbooks. What is this truth? Andy Hoffman: The TRUTH is that unchecked governments ALWAYS abuse their power, especially in fiat currency systems where the banks infiltrate their ranks. This is now the case EVERYWHERE on Earth – care of the aforementioned GLOBAL fiat currency system – and will only get worse until the system COLLAPSES and "reboots." Daily Bell: Give us your take on the wars in the Middle East. Is the "youth rebellion" real or a CIA concoction? Andy Hoffman: I have no idea what the CIA is doing, although I assume most if it is counterproductive and likely destructive. The "Arab Spring" was based on years of repression plus SOARING food prices care of Western Central Bank-generated INFLATION. Anti-West sentiment is rising – care of the Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya and soon-to-be Iran and Syrian attacks – and now, care of one of the worst droughts EVER, food prices are HIGHER than they were at the time of the Egyptian, Tunisian and Algerian revolutions. Just wait until the Saudi revolution occurs (like Apartheid South Africa, the rulers are in the minority), if you really want to see war and inflation. Daily Bell: We've led the way with the analysis that Western powers are actually trying to create an Islamic crescent in the Middle East – creating a further, false Islamic enemy, in other words. Your response? Andy Hoffman: Again, this is reaching further into politics than I like to go. There are many "conspiracies" out there, which I refuse to agree or disagree with, as there is not enough PROOF. That said, the Western political actions of the past decade – starting with the 9/11 aftermath, where AMPLE PROOF is available to disprove the "official version" – depict leaders intent on creating a mythical enemy on which to blame future, draconian acts. The current war drums in Iran and Syria are a perfect example – based on the same flawed assumptions as in Iraq – and this time around, World War III is the penalty for pushing the envelope too far. Daily Bell: You are known for confronting the PM community on various issues. What are they, generally? Andy Hoffman: My primary area of focus is spreading word of the suppression of PMs via PAPER naked shorting by the government and its henchman banks, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. It has enabled the "dollar standard" to destroy the world, and the longer it goes on, the worse the final economic conflagration will be – not that it matters anymore, as we are LONG PAST the point of no return. Additionally, I DESPISE "analysts" and "newsletter writers" who pretend to be PM bulls but say and write things that not only don't PROTECT readers but INJURE them. Daily Bell: Let's talk of some current events. Where is the euro headed? Andy Hoffman: Against the dollar, who knows, as both are worthless fiat toilet paper. On an ABSOLUTE basis, however, I expect it to be disbanded or fragmented to the point of CHAOS, likely within a year. Greece will be the first to go (voluntarily or not) and afterwards, others will do the same. Gold priced in euros is nearly at an all-time high – and when it breaks the Cartel cap and takes off, I believe TENS OF MILLIONS of Europeans will flee the euro into REAL MONEY, shattering the "Euro Zone" into pieces. Daily Bell: Is the EU headed for breakup? Andy Hoffman: Per above, YES! It will be cataclysmic and hyperinflationary, likely resulting in WAR. Daily Bell: Where is Russia headed? Andy Hoffman: Russia is now one of the world's richest nations – not that its citizens see that wealth – run by one of the shrewdest, most anti-US leaders on the planet. They will wisely ally with those still standing – such as China and Germany – and help bring the overleveraged West to its knees. Daily Bell: Give us a rundown on the rest of the BRIC economies. Andy Hoffman: It ain't pretty. Daily Bell: India? Andy Hoffman: The Bank of India may be the world's worst-run central bank – quite an accomplishment given the competition, particularly the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan. They have succeeded in DESTROYING the currency of one of the few growing economies, despite having a nation of gold loving, rupee hating citizens. Today, the Rupee is sitting near its ALL-TIME LOWS in an environment of rampant inflation – and the idiots running its central bank are trying to discourage public ownership of gold while ramping up MONEY PRINTING. It won't end well for the bankers – it NEVER does. Daily Bell: Brazil? Andy Hoffman: I have less knowledge of Brazil, so I will not pontificate. I will say they have kept interest rates higher than most nations – a major positive – and I have not seen as many negative economic stories. That said, the whole, global economy is now intermingled – and ALL CURRENCIES FIAT – so there is NO WAY they will escape the carnage. If they're lucky it will be minimal, relative to others. Daily Bell: China? Andy Hoffman: China is on the verge of ALL-OUT COLLAPSE. The economic carnage will be less than the States, but spread over 1.5 billion people the social unrest will be catastrophic. They may have taken the world's manufacturing base through low wages, but by pegging the yuan to the dollar have caused MASSIVE internal inflation and left themselves with TRILLIONS of depreciating dollar reserves. They are DESPERATELY selling those dollars to buy REAL ITEMS OF VALUE like gold and commodities, but will not be able to keep up with the fiat collapse. When the system "reboots," they will likely be the world's largest gold owner and thus the new economic superpower. But until then, their economy – led by a massive, bursting property bubble – will likely COLLAPSE. Daily Bell: What's your take on Argentina and South America, generally? Andy Hoffman: South America has more socialist, inflation-loving despots in control than anywhere else –Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, you name it. The recent nationalizations and capital controls in Argentina are terrifying – and ominous. Argentina's history is littered with monetary crises, and it will be no different when the current, GLOBAL fiat currency system collapses. Daily Bell: Okay. Let's take a look at the US. The US drives the world's economy. Is it headed back into a depression and if so, why? Andy Hoffman: I'd argue it ALREADY is in a massive recession, which started five years ago and has only worsened. Only fraudulent accounting and economic statistics enable it to be considered more stable than Europe or South America, but the PROPAGANDA is slowly being worn away by REALITY. Given the US's above average standard of living – care of having the soon-to-be-gone "reserve currency" – it has the furthest to fall. It has already lost its entire manufacturing base, unemployment is soaring and its debts (of all kinds) are the largest in history. In my view, the 1930s depression will one day be viewed as the "good old days" compared to what's coming in the States today. Daily Bell: Are the powers-that-be trying to create a worldwide depression? Andy Hoffman: Again, a "conspiracy theory" with no proof. And frankly, I don't attribute enough brain power to the current crop of so-called "elites." They certainly don't appear to be in control today, and we're supposed to believe they're planning to control billions of people? Daily Bell: Who are the powers-that-be? Are they trying to create one-world government? Andy Hoffman: I have no idea if they exist, and care not. I don't have the time to follow conspiracy theories about the Bilderbergs, Rothschilds and other sundry banker jerks. I am too busy protecting people to GUESS about such things. Daily Bell: Out of chaos order? Andy Hoffman: Only in movies, unless you call the aftermath of bloody wars and revolutions "order." Daily Bell: How high will gold and silver go? Andy Hoffman: In TODAY'S DOLLARS, simply calculating the PUBLISHED money supply and PUBLISHED US gold reserves, gold should be $15,000-$20,000/oz. Of course, the government PRINTS far more than it publishes, and the gold is likely ALL gone. Each dollar they print raises my estimate of gold's ultimate destination. As for silver, given that essentially ALL the silver ever produced has been consumed, I believe the gold:silver ratio will fall to AT LEAST its historic ratio of 15: 1, possibly much lower. Daily Bell: When will this bull market in commodities end? Andy Hoffman: When a REAL gold standard is inevitably created, at a FAIR VALUE equating gold supply to money supply. It could take years or be done overnight. Daily Bell: What should people be doing now to protect their wealth? Andy Hoffman: GET OUT of FIAT CURRENCY, BANKS and "PAPER SECURITIES" like stocks, bonds and CDs. DO NOT speculate in anything, such as real estate, and PREPARE for hyperinflation, unemployment and life necessities. Only REAL MONEY will hold its value – i.e., PHYSICAL gold and silver – and likely DRAMATICALLY gain real value as the manipulation holding them below the aforementioned targets is BROKEN. Daily Bell: Is the US society becoming increasing fascist? Should people try to get out? Andy Hoffman: It's not "becoming" fascist; it IS fascist – and getting worse each day. I fear for America but also for many of the other nations of the world – all tied by the common ANCHOR of fiat currency. Per my RANT, the "PROTECTION CONTINUUM," be VERY careful as to such decisions, as often the beast you know is less dangerous than the one you don't. Daily Bell: Who will be the next US president? Andy Hoffman: Mitt Romney has ALL the Wall Street money, just as Obama did in 2008 and Bush in 2004. Particularly with the economy CRASHING, I don't think Obama has a prayer. That's why so many people are predicting near-term "false flag attacks." That said, who cares who wins? They're both EVIL, BANKER PUPPETS. Daily Bell: What is your feeling about the Ron Paul campaign? Andy Hoffman: I was on Ron Paul's Denver campaign committee in 2008 and was privileged to watch him speak this year. He will NEVER win – even if the system crashes this summer – but is the ONLY man with true, non-political common sense in the presidential race (although I don't know enough about Gary Johnson to comment). I recently penned a RANT titled "RON PAUL, AMERICA'S GREATEST MAN." Daily Bell: Is the Internet making a difference in educating people? Andy Hoffman: Yes, it is the ONLY reason TPTB have lost control so fast. The Internet is unquestionably the greatest communications tool in history! Daily Bell: If there is a one-world conspiracy, will the Internet help counteract it? Andy Hoffman: The question is too open-ended to intelligently answer. I'm not sure what a "one-world conspiracy" really entails, although many speak of it like it's a simple concept. For example, does anyone really believe the Chinese, Indians, Russians and Arabs – who cumulatively represent more than half the world's population – could care less what a bunch of Western bankers want? Daily Bell: Any other comments you want to make? Andy Hoffman: Only to PROTECT YOURSELF, and do it now – and that "MILES FRANKLIN, PROTECTION PROVIDER" can help! Daily Bell: Literature you want to recommend? Andy Hoffman: Miles Franklin was built on a philosophy of FREE education of customers and potential customers. I publish a lengthy blog each day, as does the firm's founder, David Schectman – with contributing commentary from associate writer Bill Holter. Not only do we write about the TRUTH in the economy and markets, but compile articles from others that do the same. Daily Bell: Thanks for your time and good luck to you! Andy Hoffman: And the same to you. I thoroughly enjoyed this interview! http://www.thedailybell.com/4153/Ant...e-Its-Too-Late |
| Ronald Reagan – Nomination Acceptance Speech of 1984 Posted: 05 Aug 2012 04:15 AM PDT Sixth in a series. President Ronald W. Reagan accepts the nomination at the Republican National Convention in Dallas on August 23, 1984. From a time when the occupant of the White House was presidential. It has been a while since that was true. A few notable quotes: "Will Rogers once said he never met a man he didn't like. Well, I could paraphrase Will. Our friends in the other party have never met a tax they didn't like. – They didn't like or hike."
"In 1981 we (republicans) gained control of the senate and the executive branch. With the help of some concerned democrats in the House, we started a policy of tightening the federal budget instead of the family budget." "Those who government intended to help discovered a cycle of dependency that could not be broken. Government became a drug providing temporary relief, but addiction as well." "Pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into programs in order to make people worse off was irrational and unfair. It was time we ended this reliance on the government process and renewed our faith in the human process. In 1980 the people decided with us that the economic crisis was not that they lived too well, government lived too well." "In the Middle East it remains difficult to bring an end to historic conflicts, but we're not discouraged. And we shall always maintain our pledge never to sell out one of our closest friends the State of Israel." "None of the four wars in my lifetime came about because we were too strong. It is weakness that invites adventurous adversaries to make mistaken judgments." "Yes, government should do that which is necessary, but only that which is necessary." "We don't celebrate 'dependence' on the Fourth of July, we celebrate independence." "We cheered in Los Angeles as the (Olympic torch) flame was carried in and the giant Olympic torch burst into a billowing fire in front of the teams. The youth of 140 nations assembled on the floor of the coliseum. And in that moment, maybe you were struck as I was, with the uniqueness of what was taking place before a hundred thousand people in the stadium – most of them citizens of our country – and over a billion worldwide watching on television. There were athletes representing 140 countries here to compete in the one country in all the world whose people carry the bloodlines of all those 140 countries and more. Only in the United States is there such a rich mixture of races, creeds and nationalities. Only in our melting pot." Source: Reagan Foundation via YouTube Comment: The election in 1984 was an overwhelming electoral landslide for Ronald W. Reagan and VP George H.W. Bush. The tally was 525 to 13, carrying 49 states - a feat done only once before. The popular vote was 54.5 million to 37.6 million. Walter Mondale (with Geraldine Ferraro as the VP hopeful) carried only his home state and the District of Columbia.
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| Links for 2012-08-04 [del.icio.us] Posted: 05 Aug 2012 12:00 AM PDT
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| Hoard of Crusader Gold Found in Ruins Posted: 04 Aug 2012 10:05 PM PDT |
| Gold gains on economic data, lower dollar Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:42 PM PDT
from marketwatch.com: Gold for December delivery GCZ2 +1.02% advanced $18.60, or 1.2%, to settle at $1,609.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal declined 0.5% on the week, however. "We are getting a lot of enthusiasm from the risk-on trade," said James Cordier, a portfolio manager at Optionsellers.com. Gold has been trading alongside other asset classes for the better part of two years, and with Friday's positive macroeconomic data and the pop for U.S. stocks kept that trend going, he added. Moreover, the metal was oversold after its losing spell, Cordier said. Such losses came as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank leaders disappointed investors by not detailing any immediate plans to spur economic growth in the U.S. or curb the sovereign-debt crisis in the euro zone. Some saw a silver lining, however. "Given the disappointment at the ECB's failure to act and the sharp fall in prices of other commodities, yesterday's drop in the gold price was actually fairly moderate," analysts at Commerzbank said in a note to clients. "We see this as a sign of relative strength, and are still confident that the fears about the financial system, the geopolitical risks, the low and in some cases negative real interest rates, coupled with a 'currency war' and continued interest on the part of investors and central banks, create a positive environment for gold's traditional role as capital protection," they said. Keep on reading @ marketwatch.com |
| Gold climbs as US jobless rate increases Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:36 PM PDT
from watoday.com.au: Gold futures jumped most in more than a week after a report showed the US jobless rate unexpectedly increased to a five-month high. Unemployment advanced to 8.3 per cent in July, the Labor Department said today. The rate was forecast to hold at 8.2 per cent, according to the median in a Bloomberg survey. The jobless number climbed even as the US payrolls gained more than forecast last month, the report showed. Higher joblessness may spur the Federal Reserve to boost stimulus measures in a bid to buoy growth, raising the prospect of higher inflation. "Traders think that the Fed is watching the unemployment rate very closely, and that will determine the timing of the stimulus," Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O'Brien & Associates in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. "Some people may move to gold before the Fed makes an announcement." Gold futures for December delivery increased 1.2 per cent to settle at $US1609.30 an ounce on the Comex in New York, the biggest gain since July 25. The metal ended the week down 0.8 per cent, after as the European Central Bank and the Fed refrained from announcing new stimulus measures. Keep on reading @ watoday.com.au |
| Gold up 1pc, stimulus hopes alive after payrolls Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:33 PM PDT
from brecorder.com: NEW YORK: Gold rose around 1 percent on Friday as the dollar slid and equities rallied after an increase in the US unemployment rate in July kept prospects of further Federal Reserve monetary stimulus on the table. The metal was on track for its biggest weekly drop in six weeks, after the Fed earlier this week did not hint about imminent stimulus, but instead said a new round of major support could be on the way if the recovery did not pick up. Bullion accelerated gains after the data showed US employers hired the most workers in five months, snapping three straight months of slow job growth. The report sparked a 2 percent rally on Wall Street and commodities gains across the board led by crude oil. US unemployment rate, however, rose to 8.3 percent in July from 8.2 percent in June, which boosted gold buying due to hopes of Fed action in the near future. Market watchers said the Fed's easing tools include using newly created money to buy bonds in a bid to keep interest rates low, a process known as quantitative easing (QE). "Even though the nonfarm payrolls beat the estimates, the unemployment rate also rose, so the odds for a QE are all the same," said Nicolas Berge, a hedge fund trader at Geneva-based Absolute Capital Group which invests in precious metals, commodities futures and currencies. "The increasing expectation of central-bank actions is likely to help gold break above its recent trading range," Berge said. Spot gold was up 0.9 percent at $1,604.10 an ounce by 1:55 p.m. EDT (1755 GMT). Keep on reading @ brecorder.com |
| This Is The Next Destructive Move By Central Planners Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:26 PM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: King World News is continuing to receive extraordinary levels of interest in what has turned into a series of Michael Pento pieces. Today Pento warns, "The developed world's central banks are now foolishly preparing for a full assault on their respective currencies in an attempt to lower unemployment rates." Pento also issued this dire prediction, "What we will see going forward is a chronically weak currency, intractable inflation, onerous tax rates, a sovereign debt crisis and a depressionary economy." Because of this threat, Pento strongly urges, "… the allocation in your portfolio towards ownership of gold has now become mandatory." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| GGR finds confirmation of gold's rally in ‘managed money' short covering Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:24 PM PDT
from gata.org: 9a ET Saturday, August 4, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Analyzing gold futures market data, the got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg finds confirmation that short covering by "managed money" was responsible for last week's rise in the the gold price, fulfilling his prediction from the last GGR: http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/08/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-r… CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen… New Orleans Investment Conference http://www.neworleansconference.com/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Keep on reading @ gata.org |
| Posted: 04 Aug 2012 07:19 PM PDT
from dailyreckoning.com: Da-da, da-da, da-data… What, if anything, does it all mean? Dow down 92…Crude holding tight at $88…Gold hovering around just below $1,600 an ounce…Ten-year Treasuries retesting historical lows, at 1.46%…Dollar index up half a smidge, to 83.5… Muddle along…muddle along…muddle along… What are the markets telling us, Fellow Reckoner? In a word: Nothing. As investors are fast coming to realize, the markets couldn't tell us anything even if they wanted to. Mr. Market has a gag in his mouth, his voice muffled by the price fixers. And we don't just mean LIBOR-rigging bankers in The City. We're wagging fingers at the real fixers…the Feds. It's something we heard again and again at last week's AF investment symposium in Vancouver. "Prices are broken," noted Dan Denning, the big, bright mind behind the Aussie Daily Reckoning. "They are not to be trusted." Dan spoke candidly about the mechanisms behind the curtain: "How can anyone possibly take Ben Bernanke seriously? He told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed's unconventional policies have been, 'effective in easing financial conditions and promoting strength in the economy,' and that, 'Large-scale asset purchases have also contributed to economic growth.' He added that the Fed is 'prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery.' Keep on reading @ dailyreckoning.com |
| SilverFuturist: Setting Silver Rumors Straight Posted: 04 Aug 2012 06:38 PM PDT Something mentioned offhand 2 years ago can become a permanent part of silver lore! from silverfuturist: ~TVR |
| Terd Ferg: Keynesianism is Dying Posted: 04 Aug 2012 06:18 PM PDT The TF Metals Report's Turd Ferguson and GoldMoney's Alasdair Macleod talk about the end of the "Great Keynesian Experiment", and how precious metals will serve as your best protection against the adverse outcomes that will result from this paradigm shift. from goldmoneynews: Ferguson explains that Keynesian ideas have dominated economic policy for over 70 years, and contributed massively to the global explosion of debt levels. The thinking was that debts don't matter as long as the economy keeps growing. We have reached the end of this road now, because the debts are being recognised as unsustainable and the debt service can only be guaranteed by the production of unlimited amounts of new fiat currency. They discuss how interest rates have been pushed ever lower in an attempt to keep the system afloat and to escape from the debt trap. They argue that bond prices are clearly in bubble territory, and how they are rising due to a circular logic of rising rates signalling fear, leading to more buying of US Treasuries. Turd also notes that whenever the weakening of the dollar threatens to reach a critical point, all of a sudden we see a slew of bearish news appear out of Europe, causing the dollar to recover. Talking about the metals, Turd thinks that the price declines in gold and silver have been manufactured to allow bullion banks to reduce their short positions — which threatened them with serious losses during 2011. He points out that the silver short position of bullion banks is down by 80% from its April 2011 level, and that these banks are almost at a 1:1 long/short net ratio. Most of these short positions have been taken over by managed money, which is certainly a very bullish contrarian indicator for future gold and silver prices. Since May the metals have been in trading ranges from $1,530-$1,630 in gold and $27-$29 in silver. Ferguson expects them to head higher again soon. He doesn't necessarily advise trading the metals markets though, because short-term volatility can be very dangerous. Rather he encourages people to buy and hold physical gold and silver, as they are the best way to protect yourself from adverse outcomes at the end of the Great Keynesian Experiment. This podcast was recorded on 2 August 2012. ~TVR |
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