A unique and safe way to buy gold and silver 2013 Passport To Freedom Residency Kit
Buy Gold & Silver With Bitcoins!

Friday, August 24, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


SLV Warning and Schiff

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 11:42 PM PDT

Like I've been saying for a week, the SLV will hesitate at the 200 day MA. Now we will...


Republicans Consider Returning To Gold Standard: Real Or Red Herring?

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 11:36 PM PDT

from Zero Hedge:

Stranger than fiction perhaps but the FT is reporting that the gold standard has returned to mainstream US politics for the first time in 30 years with a 'gold commission' set to become part of official Republican party policy. While this could simply be a reach for as many Ron Paul marginal voters as possible (with the view that the GOP would never really go for it); it appears drafts of the party platform from the forthcoming rain-soaked convention call for an audit of the Fed and a commission to look at restoring the link between the dollar and gold. The FT, citing a spokesperson, adds that "There is a growing recognition within the Republican party and in America more generally that we're not going to be able to print our way to prosperity," but "We're not going to go from a standing start to the gold standard," although it would provide a chance to educate politicians and the public about the merits of a return to gold. Interestingly, the Republican platform in 1980 referred to "restoration of a dependable monetary standard", while the 1984 platform said that "the gold standard may be a useful mechanism."

Read More @ Zero Hedge


Military Anti-Suicide Spray “A Fix for Feelings?”

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 11:14 PM PDT

from ExperimentalVaccines:

Right on the heels of the nasal flu vaccine the Army issue the release of a new nanotech nasal spray to help slow down the rate of suicides in the military. The active ingredient is a neurochemical called thyrotropin-releasing hormone, or TRH, that has euphoric, calming, anti-depressant effects. TRH is a naturally occurring hormone made in the body but doesn't have the ability to cross the blood brain barrier the mad chemists have figured a way to adhere nanoparticles to the TRH making this process possible. Wouldn't you think if the TRH was supposed to go into the brain it would do so naturally not having to be forced by the hand of man? The Cocaine Vaccine science has declared a success uses the same principles of tricking to insert a chemical into the brain.

The results of the Cocaine vaccine were that the test rats consumed 10 times the amount of cocaine need in order to achieve a euphoric high (success?).The first news of this was report by the Army times website where they mention a $3 million dollar award being given to the Indiana University School of Medicine along with scientist from Purdue and the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Notice it was developed at a college university I wonder if anyone was contaminated during the study? This spray uses Nano technology and is only being offered to the military but they hope to make it available for the general public very soon.


This Move In Gold & Silver Will Look Spectacular

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 11:05 PM PDT

from KingWorldNews:

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News, "This is going to be one of the fastest moves that we've seen in this bull market (in gold)." Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, also said, "… silver is going to move a lot faster than gold." He also cautioned, "… The ascent is going to be mind boggling."

Here is what Greyerz had to say: "Eric, this is a good day to talk because the breakout we have been talking about is happening here and now. It had to come, both technically and fundamentally. We are always looking at this market from a fundamental point of view, but the technicals are now confirming the breakout.

This is going to be one of the fastest moves that we've seen in this bull market. We are now talking about gold moving, without any major correction, to the next major target of $4,500 to $5,000. That might seem incredible, but it's reality. This is a technical target.

But what's happening in the world, the mess we are in and the QE that will follow, that will be the catalyst that will drive gold up to unbelievable heights…."

von Greyerz continues @ KingWorldNews.com


Canadian Real Estate - Bubble, Bubble, Toil & Trouble

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 10:52 PM PDT

By: Joelle Fricot & Chris Callahan Thursday, August 23, 2012 It is almost four years after the global financial meltdown of 2008 and many parts of world are still trying to recover. Given the impact of the crisis, which rocked financial markets across the globe, it is shocking to many that Canada seems to be following many of the same lending trends as we saw in the United States in 2006. These trends were at the core of the subprime mortgage crisis, which led to the global recession of 2008. In the year and a half leading up to the crash housing prices rapidly increased in the United States, with a corresponding increase in subprime lending. We are now seeing the same trends in Canada. When analyzing the Canadian housing market, housing prices increased almost 100% since 2000, with the average home in Canada costing roughly $348,000. This is almost double our U.S. counterparts. Big banks ...


Gold, Silver & Crude Oil Set For Remarkable Advances

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 10:01 PM PDT

Today Tom Fitzpatrick told King World News that silver will quickly advance 23%, or $7 higher than current levels. Fitzpatrick also expects massive moves in gold and crude oil that will stun market participants.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Scott Gibson – With Eric Coffin of Hard Rock Analyst

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 09:43 PM PDT

Our good friends Eric Coffin and Scott Gibson recently sat down to talk about some of the interesting companies on their radar screen and why.  Obviously this video is from just before the breakout on gold  and just prior to the recent preliminary economic assessment released by Riverstone Resources (RVS.V).    

 
Source:  Beneath the Surface with Scott Gibson
http://www.kitco.com/ind/kitcogibson/

Disclosure:  Members of the GGR team hold long positions in several of the companies mentioned. 


Fast and far moves just ahead for gold and silver, von Greyerz tells King

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 08:27 PM PDT

10:19p ET Thursday, August 23, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Matterhorn Asset Management's Egon von Greyerz today sticks his neck way out with King World News, predicting stunningly fast moves up in gold and silver, with gold reaching $4,000 without a major correction. Some of us pray to live to see the day when gold reaches just $1,800 and figure that $4,000 and higher won't be reached any time soon without central banks getting ahead of the collapse of their currencies, getting out of gold's way, and forthrightly remonetizing the metal. But none of us will hate von Greyerz if he's off by a few days. An excerpt from his interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/23_Gr...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



ADVERTISEMENT

GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option


In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold.

Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order.

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



Silver Sector Shrinking

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 08:15 PM PDT

by Sean Rakhimov, Silver Seek:

It has been a while since we had this nagging feeling that we're witnessing something profound taking place before our eyes and the market doesn't seem to grasp it yet. We are not talking about the smorgasbord of events effecting markets all over the globe that is receiving ample coverage elsewhere in the media. As readers might know, our particular interest is in the silver space, and that is where we see an elephant in the room that hasn't made headlines yet.

No doubt most readers are aware of the recent developments in countries like Argentina, Bolivia, Peru and others, with respect to what can be broadly classified as "resource nationalism". Our general views on the subject were detailed a few years ago, here. As discussed by this writer and others, such developments are not new and certainly not limited to silver or even the mining sector. However, in our opinion, it is in the silver space that these events should have the most profound effect.

Why? Because the silver sector is so small and the above mentioned countries collectively make up a big of chunk of it. According to CPM Group's 2012 Silver Yearbook, the aforementioned countries are projected to produce some 170 Moz silver this year versus the anticipated total global silver production of 788 Moz. While at first glance that only makes up 21.6% of total annual mine supply, which in itself is significant, we submit that it represents an even greater percentage of "investible" silver production.

Read More @ SilverSeek.com


Sprott guys on ZIRP and NIRP and the gold supply crunch

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 08:14 PM PDT

10:10p ET Thursday, August 23, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The latest commentary by Eric Sprott and David Baker of Sprott Asset Management describes how zero and negative interest rates are destroying savers, pension funds, and insurance companies and signify the impending end of the increasingly crazy world financial system with a proclamation of the worthlessness of government money -- a time when gold in hand may be even more valuable than it is now. The Sprott-Baker commentary is headlined "NIRP: The Financial System's Death Knell?" and it's posted at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://sprott.com/markets-at-a-glance/nirp-the-financial-system%E2%80%99...

Meanwhile Sprott Asset Management's John Embry, writing for Investor's Digest of Canada, argues that growing demand for gold from central banks is bumping up against the realization that much supposedly "allocated" gold held for customers by investment banks is illusionary. Embry's commentary is headlined "Gold Increasingly Likely to Be in Short Supply" and it's posted at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://sprott.com/media/185247/August-17-2012-Investors-Digest-John-Embr...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option


In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold.

Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order.

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Why the Dam is Finally Breaking on the US Dollar

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 08:00 PM PDT

by Doug Casey, Casey Research:

Maybe Iran wants a bomb. Maybe not.

But blocking it out of the SWIFT system, in other words cutting it off from using the US dollar for its oil trades (among other things) because we suspect it does, simply meant that countries that still want to trade with Iran and which are not beholden to our political whim, have found ways of doing business without a dollar in sight.

That was a reckless decision at best. It opens the door to alternatives… alternatives that Russia, China and India – all major dollar holders – may just like better.

As Doug explains, it may be a step toward a return to a gold-based monetary system, something we've discussed many times in the past.

Watch Doug's illuminating interview with Border Gold's Michael Levy:


For Marc Faber The Iron 'Ore' Lady Has Sung

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 07:59 PM PDT

Frustrated with the know-it-all bullish 'experts' on the Chinese economy lambasting wise boots-on-the-ground deep-thinkers such as Hugh Hendry and Albert Edwards; Marc Faber (who discussed this in detail in the clip we presented here) today set about correcting some of that vacuous chatter on China's dominance (with all its current stuffed inventory). Noting that the Chinese stock market is not exactly pointing to the growth everyone is relying on (and we add since the MAR09 lows it is only fractionally better than Spain), Faber brings up one chart (courtesy of The Bank Credit Analyst) to rule them all. Alongside the mega-bubbles of: Gold in 1970s, the Nikkei in the 80s, and the Nasdaq in the 90s, Iron Ore prices since the start of 2000 have them all beat - and recently (as we noted here) have begun to roll over.

 

The four biggest bubbles of the last 40 years... with Iron Ore the clear winner...

 

and how is China's equity market doing?

 

as Faber adds:

All these indicators [which he discusses at length from electricity production to Macau gaming revenues and consumer spending habits to appliance and air-conditioning volumes] do not necessarily suggest that the Chinese economy is collapsing, but they reliably do suggest that the economic slowdown is more pronounced than official Chinese statistics would have you believe. In addition, these indicators do not imply that the Chinese stock market will decline further (but it could). Perhaps the weak performance since 2008 has already discounted much of the slowdown in economic growth.

Charts: The Bank Credit Analyst and Bloomberg


An Open Letter to the MSM: QE 3 Is Not Coming. Stop the Propaganda

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 07:26 PM PDT

 

Listen up Mainstream Financial Media, the Fed is not going to announce QE 3. You’ve been running the same tired stupid story after every single FOMC meeting since May 2011, desperately trying to spin everything the Fed says into a call for more QE.

 

The fact of the matter is that only a handful of Fed members have called for more QE. They are Charles Evans and Bill Dudley, both of whom represent financial centers (Chicago and New York). These guys want QE Infinity because they represent the banks and could care less about the average American. Heck, Dudley even went so far as to suggest inflation was under control because iPads are getting cheaper… at a time when food prices were at all time highs!

 

Those folks have been clamoring for QE all along. This is nothing new.

 

Let me explain why QE 3 is not coming and why your desperate feeble attempts to spin every Fed statement into a call for more QE is going to bite you in the tail.

 

The Fed cannot announce QE 3 because:

 

  1. Food prices are already exploding higher towards records
  2. Gas prices are sharply up
  3. Inflation is actually much much higher than CPI claims
  4. The stock market is at or near four year highs

 

Those are the obvious reasons that anyone with a working brain could figure out. Now let’s explain the more significant reasons that someone who actually grasps how the financial system works knows about.

 

If the Fed announced QE 3, or decided to monetize everything in sight, the bond market would implode. Every time we’ve had QE, interest rates have risen. More QE now after we’ve already had QE 1, QE lite, and QE 2 would signal that the Fed is willing to monetize everything under the sun. The end result would be an absolute catastrophe (the bond market dwarfs the stock market in size) as bonds would collapse, sending interest rates through the roof.

 

This in turn would take down many corporations as they’d be forced to default on their debt payments. It would also destroy the US economy as credit card defaults, mortgages, student loans, etc would be defaulted upon.

 

So no QE, guaranteed.

 

There’s another reason QE isn’t coming. QE sucks Treasuries out of the financial system. Treasuries are the senior most assets against which banks make their trades. Consider that the top four banks in the US (JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citirgroup) only have $7.12 trillion in assets backstopping over $200 TRILLION in derivatives.

 

When the Fed “monetizes” debt it is in fact pulling assets out of the system (swapping out Treasuries and other assets for cash). With over $224 TRILLION in derivatives outstanding this is the LAST thing the Fed wants.

 

Indeed, Bernanke has all but admitted this recently, saying "I assume there is a theoretical limit on QE as the Fed can only buy TSYs and Agencies… If the Fed owned too much TSYs and Agencies it would hurt the market."

 

Why would it hurt the market? Because the banks NEED these assets . And QE takes them out of the system.

 

Trust me… Bernanke knows about this situation in the financial system. This is why he propped up the four TBTFs as well as Fannie/ Freddie and AIG while letting just about everyone else go under: if these firms collapsed it would implode the system.

 

So QE is not coming. That’s a fact. You can spin the Fed’s language however you want but you’re just making stuff up. You’ve been wrong about QE 3 for over a year now. And you will remain wrong. All you’re doing is propping up stocks with your propaganda.

 

For more insights and market commentary visit us at www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Graham Summers

 

 


Trends in U.S. Military Spending

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 07:07 PM PDT

Military budgets are only one gauge of military power. A given financial commitment may be adequate or inadequate depending on the number and capability of a nation's adversaries, how well it spends its investment, and what it seeks to accomplish, among other factors. Nevertheless, trends in military spending do reveal something about a country's capacity for coercion. The following charts, from the Council of Foreign Relations, present historical trends in U.S. military spending and analyze the forces that may drive it lower.

These charts draw on data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Both data sets include spending on overseas contingency operations as well as defense. This distinguishes them from data used in the U.S. budget, which separate defense spending from spending on overseas operations.


 

U.S. Military Spending, $ Billions

  • In inflation-adjusted dollars, SIPRI's measure of U.S. military spending rose sharply after the terrorist attacks of 2001.
  • In 2011, military spending declined by almost $9 billion, the first such decline since 1998.
  • Sequestration scheduled to take effect in January promises about $55 billion in cuts to U.S. military spending, although the baseline against which these cuts will be made remains unclear.
  • The president's 2013 budget requests $728 billion in military spending. If this were used as the baseline, sequestration would mean a 7.5 percent reduction in military spending from the president's requested level in FY 2013.

U.S. Military Spending, % of World

  • When U.S. inflation-adjusted military spending fell by one-third in the 1990s, the U.S. share of global military spending only fell by six percentage points because other countries, particularly Russia, reduced their military spending as well.
  • By contrast, the 1.2 percent fall in U.S. military spending in 2011 resulted in a 0.6 percentage point fall in the global share, as military spending by the rest of the world simultaneously increased.

To see why U.S. military spending is likely to keep falling as a share of global military spending, it helps to look at the drivers of this ratio. For any country, a change in military spending as a share of the global total can be attributed to two factors: changes in income and changes in the allocation of that income. A rising share of global military expenditure based on a rising share of global GDP is likely to be more sustainable over the long term than a rise based on a decision to spend more of GDP on defense at the expense of other priorities. The following charts distinguish between the impact of growth and the allocation of income on the U.S. share of global military spending.

Growth Effects on U.S. Military Spending

  • From 1990 to 2000, U.S. growth roughly kept pace with global growth. So the impact of U.S. growth on the nation's share of global military spending (represented by the red bars) offset the impact of rest-of-the-world growth (represented by the purple bars). As a result, the net growth effect, shown by the blue line, was close to zero.
  • Over the past ten years, faster foreign growth has reduced the U.S. share of military spending.

Policy Effects on U.S. Military Spending

  • The impact of growth on military budgets, shown above, has been disguised by shifting policy on how much of GDP to allocate to defense.
  • In the 1990s, the United States cut the defense budget (shown in the blue bars), whereas in the 2000s, the defense budget increased.
  • Between 1990 and 1995, cuts in foreign allocation of GDP to defense (especially in Russia) boosted the U.S. share of total military spending (the green bar). Since 1995, the rest of the world has spent a fairly stable share of GDP on the military.

U.S. Military Spending Share of Global Total

  • Combining the two previous charts, it is clear that changes in spending as a percentage of GDP have buoyed the U.S. share of world military spending, while changes in GDP have been a headwind.
  • A decline in the U.S. share of world military spending seems likely in the absence of a new sense of insecurity.

The next chart consolidates the information from the previous three images. The black line shows the U.S. share of world military spending at five-year intervals, while the bars show what drove the change during each five-year period. The blue bars show how willing the nation has been since 2000 to spend a rising share of GDP on defense. If one assumes this commitment holds steady in the next five years, and if one uses International Monetary Fund growth estimates for the United States and its rivals, the U.S. share of military spending is set to decline as U.S. GDP growth (represented by the red bar) is lower than that of other military powers (represented by the purple bar).

U.S. Military Spending, Share of Global Total

If the United States decided to spend a smaller share of GDP on the military, the black line above would decline more sharply still. How likely is this? The following two charts show how U.S. overseas operations have been shrinking and that they are likely to continue to do so.

Funding for Overseas Contingency Operations

  • Overall funding for overseas contingency operations has declined by just over 50 percent since 2008 as the war in Iraq has wound down.
  • Funding for the two operations was as high as $187 billion in fiscal year 2008, which represents 30 percent of SIPRI's measure of U.S. military spending for that year.
  • War funding is projected to come to $96 billion in fiscal year 2013, but it is likely to decline thereafter with the winding down of the war in Afghanistan.

Troop Levels for Overseas Contingency Operations

  • As of fiscal year 2012, the number of troops deployed in Afghanistan and Iraq has declined 49 percent since fiscal year 2008.
  • Troop levels are projected to decline a further 28 percent in 2013.

The following charts provide some historical perspective on military spending.

U.S. National Defense Spending

  • U.S. national defense spending has ranged widely, from less than 1 percent of GDP in 1929 up to 43 percent in 1944. These extremes illustrate that resource allocation to defense can increase rapidly when a war demands it.

U.S. National Defense Spending

  • Focusing just on the post-World War II period, U.S. national defense spending as a percent of GDP has ranged from a high of 15 percent in 1952 (during the Korean War) to a low of 3.7 percent in 2000 (the period of relative tranquility preceding the terrorist attacks of the following year).

U.S. National Defense Spending

  • In the post-Cold War world, the U.S. national defense budget has fluctuated within a relatively narrow band. It fell by about three percentage points of GDP as the nation reaped the peace dividend of the 1990s, then rose after the terrorist attacks of 2001.
  • President Obama's budget proposes cutting security spending to 3.7% of GDP in 2018. This would match the 2000 level and represent the lowest allocation of GDP to defense spending in the post-World War II era.

To put U.S. military spending in context, consider GDP and population shares as of 2011. The pie charts demonstrate that the United States accounts for a larger share of military spending than of either GDP or population, and would continue to even if military spending were to revert to 2000 levels as a percent of GDP.

Military Spending, GDP, and Population

If U.S. military spending were to revert to its 2000 level over the next five years, as President Obama has proposed, and the rest of the world were to continue spending the same portion of its GDP on the military, U.S. military spending as a share of the global total would decline sharply, to just under 30 percent.

U.S. Military Spending Share of Global Total

As noted at the outset, military power depends on multiple factors, including the military budgets of a country's allies. To get a sense of this factor, the sixth chart above was redone, with spending by NATO, Japan, South Korea, Israel, and Saudi Arabia added to the analysis. The United States and these allies account for a formidable 71 percent of global military spending in 2010. However, as the black line in the chart shows, the trend is less reassuring. The United States' and its allies' share of world military spending fell from 2005 to 2010. It is projected to fall further, to 64 percent by 2015, even if U.S. spending as a share of GDP holds up at today's levels. Budgetary pressures in Europe may mean this share falls even more rapidly.

U.S. and Allies' Military Spending

Democracies' Military Spending

  • Democracies are generally regarded as friendly to the United States, and this chart delivers a similar verdict to the last one.
  • After the collapse of the Soviet Union, democracies accounted for the vast majority of the world's military spending.
  • However, since the early 1990s, this share has declined slightly.

U.S. Military Spending % of Democratic

  • The United States accounts for almost half of all military spending by democracies.
  • A decline in U.S. military spending is therefore likely to have a large impact on democracies' military spending as a share of the global total.

What would happen if the U.S. defense budget were cut? Differences in military spending among countries tend to have a big influence on equipment procurement and a far smaller one on personnel count.

Military Equipment and Spending

  • This chart compares each country's share of spending and share of military equipment. The equipment measure includes twenty-one categories such as tanks, aircraft, and satellites.
  • Spending and equipment levels are correlated. Russia is the exception, perhaps because it still has equipment left over from its period of high spending before 1990.

Personnel and Spending

  • Unlike equipment, personnel is relatively uncorrelated to spending.
  • Because of differences in labor costs, $1 million in the United States will hire fewer soldiers than $1 million in Russia or China.
  • If military budgets were compared in a way that reflected varying personnel costs, U.S. military preeminence would appear smaller than it does using straightforward comparisons based on market exchange rates.

Personnel Payroll Outlays

  • The effect of defense cuts on personnel would depend on which part of personnel spending suffered.
  • Of the $195 billion in Department of Defense payroll outlays, only $84 billion went to active-duty military pay.
  • Retired military pay, which does not directly increase defense capabilities, accounted for nearly 20 percent of total personnel expenditures in 2009.

DoD Personnel

  • The number of personnel employed by the Department of Defense has declined since the 1960s, while personnel costs have risen rapidly, in part due to rising U.S. health-care costs.
  • The cost of military pay and allowances and military health care has risen 90 percent since FY 2001, while the active-duty personnel count has risen by less than 3 percent.
  • Military health-care costs have risen from $19 billion in FY 2001 to $48.7 billion in FY 2013.

As noted above, rising spending on defense personnel has not resulted in increasing troop strength. The following charts illustrate two additional reasons why spending may overstate the U.S. ability to project power.

Cost of Ships vs Inflation

  • The cost of military hardware has grown more than inflation. Today's spending results in less procurement than does spending in the past.
  • Although the rising cost of hardware partly reflects rising quality, shipbuilders reported to the RAND Corporation that uncertainty surrounding the number of ships ultimately purchased increases labor costs and reduces the incentive to invest in processes that could reduce costs.

Investing to Stand Still

  • Countries such as the United States that have invested a substantial sum in their military must spend simply to maintain existing levels of equipment.
  • The chart shows that the United States must spend about 1 percent of GDP on military hardware just to tread water.
  • Spending in countries that have low military capital stocks will result in larger increases in defense stocks due to lower levels of depreciation.


Guest Post: Food Prices & The Solar Cycle

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 07:00 PM PDT

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Food Prices & The Solar Cycle

From that sun which is truly 'of this great world both eye and soul' we derive our strength and our weakness, our success and our failure, our elation in commercial mania, and our despondency and ruin in commercial collapse.

 

W.S. Jevons, 1909

With crop yields falling due to drought, and crop prices breaking out so much that some farmers are feeding their cows discarded candy, perhaps now is a good time to consider the slightly offbeat theories of English economist W.S. Jevons who believed that the business cycle is driven by the 11-year solar cycle:

W.S. Jevons and then his son H. S. Jevons believed that cyclical behaviour of solar activity cause changes in agricultural output and therefore general economic activity. This has been named the "sunspot" theory. Although sometimes regarded as bordering on the bizarre, it is not too farfetched. Non-irrigated agrarian societies obviously would suffer pronounced effects upon agricultural production (and therefore incomes) from climatic alterations. It follows that relative large variations in agricultural production would lead to variations in supporting industries (forward linkages) and then impacts upon industrial output which use raw materials from agriculture (backward linkages) and eventually overall economic activity.

Jevons backed his claims up with data:

Jevons finds that the prices of most agricultural products vary dramatically over an eleven year cycle. He cites English agricultural price data from the years 1259-1400. The prices of wheat, barley, oats, beans, peas, and rye reach a relative minimum in the second year of the cycle, an absolute maximum in the fourth year of the cycle and an absolute minimum in the tenth year of the cycle before recovering in the final year of the cycle and the first year of the new cycle. There does appear to be a rather obvious and consistent trend in prices over these eleven year periods. Jevons finds that the data (English wheat prices from 1595-1761) available to him in the Wealth of Nations (Smith, 1776) confirm similar although less marked trends in agricultural prices. Jevons does not discount other significant factors that might cause the rather predictable nature of these business cycles. Technological advancements, wars, and other factors independent of agricultural and weather cycles can and do exhibit great influence over the economic well being of a nation. Also consumer confidence or a lack thereof could cause significant variations in spending and employment. However, Jevons believes that these consumer attitudes may also be related to the sunspot theory and the corresponding droughts and bumper crops which may result. "If, then the English money market is naturally fitted to swing or roll in periods of ten or eleven years, comparatively slight variations in the goodness of harvests repeated at like intervals would suffice to produce those alterations of depression, activity, excitement and collapse which undoubtedly recur in well-marked succession."

As Jevons alludes to — and especially in a world where most of us live in an irrigated industrial society — it would seem that there are many other significant factors in determining both long and short term variations in food price — technology shocks, wars, energy shocks, social changes. Food prices are a complex and multi-dimensional equation with a lot of variables.

But the impressive thing is that even in a modern agriculturally mechanised and industrialised economy there remains a discernable underlying association between food prices and the solar cycle:

Some might assume that this relationship is transmitted via precipitation, and that less rain (i.e. more drought) means less food growth, and therefore higher food costs. But this could work the other way, too — too much rain can also damage crops.

And the evidence suggests that more precipitation is associated with higher food inflation, and vice verse:

There is a much looser relationship with temperature:

So while Jevons was correct that there is an underlying association, there is clearly a lot more to it than the solar cycle especially in the irrigated, mechanised, fertilised modern agricultural world. Certainly, it does not seem possible to predict food price changes based solely on the solar cycle, even though it does appear to exert a significant influence.

And certainly we have passed through much higher periods of solar activity and drought without such an extreme breakout in corn (or soy) prices:

That chart, more than anything else suggests that the recent corn and soy breakout is terrestrial rather than solar in nature. The chief culprit remains growing ethanol usage:

 

As well as growing global corn-fed meat consumption:


Republican platform to offer sop to Paul supporters: another gold commission

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 06:43 PM PDT

Republicans Eye Return to Gold Standard

By Robin Harding and Anna Fifield
Financial Times, London
Thursday, August 23, 2012

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/06ebfdaa-ed3f-11e1-83d1-00144feab49a.html

The gold standard has returned to mainstream US politics for the first time in 30 years, with a "gold commission" set to become part of official Republican Party policy.

Drafts of the party platform, which it will adopt next week at a convention in Tampa, Florida, call for an audit of Federal Reserve monetary policy and a commission to look at restoring the link between the dollar and gold.

The move shows how five years of easy monetary policy -- and the efforts of libertarian congressman Ron Paul -- have made the once-fringe idea of returning to gold as money a legitimate part of Republican debate.

... Dispatch continues below ...



ADVERTISEMENT

GoldMoney adds Toronto vaulting option


In addition to its precious metals storage facilities in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom, GoldMoney customers now can store their gold and silver in a high-security vault operated by Brink's in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

GoldMoney also has recently partnered with Rhenus Freight Logistics to offer another gold storage option in Switzerland. The Rhenus vault is in the secured zone of Zurich Airport and offers customers superb security as well as the ability to inspect their gold.

Storage at the new vaults in Canada and Switzerland is available at GoldMoney's lowest fees. Customers can select their storage location when placing their buy order.

GoldMoney customers can take delivery of any number of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium bars from any GoldMoney vault, as well as personally collect their bars stored in the Hong Kong, Switzerland, and U.K. vaults.

It's easy to open an account, add funds, and liquidate your investment. For more information, visit:

http://www.goldmoney.com/?gmrefcode=gata



Marsha Blackburn, a Republican congresswoman from Tennessee and co-chair of the platform committee, said the issues were not adopted merely to placate Mr. Paul and the delegates he picked up during his campaign for the party's nomination.

"These were adopted because they are things that Republicans agree on," Ms. Blackburn told the Financial Times. "The House recently passed a bill on this, and this is something that we think needs to be done."

The proposal is reminiscent of the Gold Commission created by former president Ronald Reagan in 1981, 10 years after Richard Nixon broke the link between gold and the dollar during the 1971 oil crisis. That commission ultimately supported the status quo.

"There is a growing recognition within the Republican party and in America more generally that we're not going to be able to print our way to prosperity," said Sean Fieler, chairman of the American Principles Project, a conservative group that has pushed for a return to the gold standard.

A commission would have no power except to make recommendations, but Mr. Fieler said it would provide a chance to educate politicians and the public about the merits of a return to gold. "We're not going to go from a standing start to the gold standard," he said.

The Republican platform in 1980 referred to "restoration of a dependable monetary standard," while the 1984 platform said that "the gold standard may be a useful mechanism." More recent platforms did not mention it.

Any commission on a return to the gold standard would have to address a host of theoretical, empirical, and practical issues.

Inflation has remained under control in recent years, despite claims that expansion of the Fed's balance sheet would lead to runaway price rises, while gold has been highly volatile. The price of the metal is up by more than 500 per cent in dollar terms over the past decade.

A return to a fixed money supply would also remove the central bank's ability to offset demand shocks by varying interest rates. That could mean a more volatile economy and higher average unemployment over time.

On the campaign trail in New Mexico on Thursday, Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney said it was "a real achievable objective" for the U.S. to reach energy independence by 2020, touting his plan to open a stretch of the southeast coast for oil development and speed up drilling on federal lands.

* * *

Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

New Orleans Investment Conference
Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
New Orleans, Louisiana
http://www.neworleansconference.com/

* * *

Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy open All Pro Gold

Longtime GATA supporters Fred Goldstein and Tim Murphy have brought their many years of experience in the precious metals and numismatic coins to All Pro Gold as metals brokers who specialize in the delivery of gold and silver bullion bars and coins as well as numismatic gold and silver coins. Fred and Tim follow these markets closely and are assisted by a team of consultants in monitoring market trends. All Pro Gold offers GATA supporters competitive pricing on all bullion products and welcomes inquiries. Tim can be reached at 602-299-2585 and Tim@allprogold.com, Fred at 602-799-8378 and Fred@allprogold.com. Ask about their ratio strategy and the relationship of generic $20 dollar gold pieces to 1-ounce gold bullion coins. Visit their Internet site at http://www.allprogold.com/.



Central Banks, The Veil Of Secrecy, A Hotbed of Corruption, And Now Another One Got Ensnared

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 06:25 PM PDT

Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

Central banks are designed to be “independent,” and they shroud themselves in secrecy. But they have formidable and, when it comes to money, “unlimited” powers that they harness for the benefit of their clientele, banks. And hiding behind their veil of secrecy are shenanigans that rarely seep to the surface, but when they do, they just get worse and worse. And the latest is a sordid bribery and kickback scandal at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that appeared to be neatly contained to two subsidiaries, until now.

Securency International Pty Ltd, jointly owned by the RBA and Innovia Films, develops polymer materials for Australia’s banknote technology used in 27 countries. Note Printing Australia (NPA), a wholly owned subsidiary of the RBA, manufactures polymer banknotes. In May 2009, Age newspaper broke the scandal: eight former executives of Securency and NPA had paid millions of dollars in bribes and kickbacks to officials in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia between 1999 and 2004 through middlemen, including a Malaysian arms dealer, in order to win contracts for manufacturing bank notes. Forced to deal with the ruckus, Securency asked the Australian Federal Police to investigate.

In July 2011, finally, after two years of foot-dragging, and after international pressure to do something, the Federal Police arrested six former executives of Securency and NPA—Australia’s first prosecution under its foreign bribery laws.

On Aug 19, 2012, former Securency CFO David Ellery pleaded guilty to one charge of false accounting—he admitted to concealing a $79,502 payment to a Malaysian agent—and was given a six-month suspended sentence. In return, he handed over hard drives, provided details, and agreed to become a prosecution witness. In her ruling, the Judge lashed out against the company for its “corporate culture” where “staff were discouraged from examining too closely the use of, and payment arrangements for, overseas agents,” and where “secrecy and a denial of responsibility for wrongdoing” prevailed.

So justice reluctantly tiptoed around the lower levels. Suspicions that top officials at the RBA knew about the corruption were waved away by Governor Glenn Stevens. He testified before a parliamentary committee in 2011: he and others at the RBA learned about the scandal by reading the papers. Deputy Governor Ric Battellino—retired since February—sat right next him.

But at least Battellino knew since June 2007! A 5-page memo that ABC obtained from “sources” at the RBA, and made public yesterday, proves it. That June, NPA’s Brian Hood told Battellino in a secret meeting about the corruption issues. He later composed and sent the now surfaced 5-page memo to Battellino, detailing multi-million-dollar payments to overseas agents who in turn made payments to officials and politicians in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Nepal. Hood stated that he’d tried to address these issues within NPA but was told to “back off.”

Battellino reacted. Instead of calling the Federal Police to investigate, the RBA engaged a law firm to do an audit that gave the company a clean bill of health. Whistleblower Hood was axed in 2007, along with the foreign agents and some of NPA’s management. Despite the memo, the RBA, of course, continues to reject the “implication that the governor or other officers of the bank have misled” the parliamentary commission.

Central banks are special creatures, and investigating them turns out to be the hardest thing in the world. While pressures have been rising for an independent inquiry, Parliament voted against it last year, and may do so again.

But the RBA is not alone. Similarly sordid allegations have entangled Ewald Nowotny, Governor of the Austrian National Bank and member of the ECB’s Governing Council [read... Austrian Central Bank: Bribery, Kickbacks, Money Laundering]. At the Swiss National Bank, an insider trading scandal caused its chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, to resign. And in the US, an audit of the Federal Reserve System by the Government Accountability Office shed some light the dizzying conflicts of interests and cronyism at the New York Fed when it decided who got which billions during its multi-trillion-dollar bailout mania [read.... The GAO Audit of the Fed Doesn’t Call It ‘Corruption’ but it Should].

Piercing the veil of secrecy surrounding central banks is tough. While Ron Paul [His Legacy, A Complete Fed Audit?] and others have long pushed for regular Fed audits, not much has been accomplished beyond the GAO audit. Inspector General Neil Barofsky was looking after TARP to prevent fraud and abuse, though it was handing out peanuts compared to the trillions the Fed was handing out—secretly and unobserved. Read.... All Heck Breaks Loose on CNBC, TARP Gets Sanctified, Bank Bailouts Get Whitewashed, And The Fed Escapes Scot-Free.


Silver: Supply and Demand Part 2, Investment Demand

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 06:20 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: This is a fairly pedestrian look at the silver supply & demand story. Sadly, there's no mention of the JP Morgan paper silver games. Although the 182 Billion ounces traded on the Comex in 2011 by "investors" is mentioned - We prefer the term "speculators" or "manipulators".]

from edrsilver:


Your Crash Course in Silver Supply and Demand

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 06:00 PM PDT

by Christopher Barker, The Motley Fool:

While silver and gold prices shake off the summer doldrums and appear set to resume their multiyear advance, let's take this opportunity to delve into key elements of silver supply and demand.

Silver stocks are rapidly waking up from a long and excruciating slumber. Atop a 9% advance for bullion proxy iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV ) over the past month, popular investment vehicles Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW ) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE: AG ) have recorded precious surges of 24% and 30%, respectively. But rather than taking my word that far greater gains remain in the cards for these quality silver investments, Fools must analyze for themselves the underlying dynamics of supply and demand before deciding whether they share my bullish outlook.

The modest scale of the silver market overall, in contrast to the unimaginably massive universe of heavily leveraged derivatives that continues to threaten the financial system at large, may offer some context for the gut-wrenching volatility that scares some investors away from silver entirely. For my part, I'm more interested in seeing what the small scale of the silver market will mean for prices in the very likely scenario in which global silver investment demand continues to gather steam.

Read More @ fool.com


The Gold Price has Risen $55.80 in the Last Four Days Buy Fistfuls if Gold Closes Above $1,680

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 05:33 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1669.60
Change : 32.20 or 1.97%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.447
Change : 0.898 or 3.04%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.836
Change : -0.577 or -1.04%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01824
Change : 0.000190 or 1.05%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1553.60
Change : 28.40 or 1.86%

Palladium Price Close Today : 656.00
Change : 27.85 or 4.43%

S&P 500 : 1,402.08
Change : -11.41 or -0.81%

Dow In GOLD$ : $161.67
Change : $ (4.62) or -2.78%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.821
Change : -0.223 or -2.78%

Dow in SILVER oz : 428.86
Change : -16.94 or -3.80%

Dow Industrial : 13,057.46
Change : -115.30 or -0.88%

US Dollar Index : 81.36
Change : -0.149 or -0.18%

Before I speak a word about the silver and GOLD PRICE, I'm going to warn y'all against enthusiasm. Easiest thing in the world is to get all worked up and cheery about a rising market, disremembering that gravity hasn't stopped working. Faster a market rises, faster it can fall, too. So while after such a long time spent in a correction these rallies make me happier than a six-year old with a new puppy, but don't let a sudden reaction cast you down. The breakouts have been made, but retracements must come to solidify those gains.

Now, I've done my duty and I can brag all I want.

The SILVER PRICE has risen 245.2 cents in four days, 8.8%. Today it closed up 89,8 cents at 3044.7 -- that's right, above 3000c.

In the same four days the GOLD PRICE has risen $55.80 or 3.5%. Yesterday it closed at 1637.40, but in the aftermarket rose $17. I looked it about 11:00 p.m. and it was already above $1,660. High today came at $1,674.72, less than six bucks off that $1,680 target I've been aiming at.

Milestone here is the GOLD PRICE hitting the descending trendline from last August's top, not to mention cutting through the 200 DMA yesterday. I told y'all those trend followers would jump on when gold crossed that line.

The SILVER PRICE closed right at its 200 DMA (3051c). It has not quite touched the downtrend line from the April 2011 top, but is shy of it by only a gnat's whisker.

With both silver and gold it's reasonable to expect some pause and reaction to digest gains this huge. Reasonable, too, for both metals to require two tries to break through that huge downtrend line. More, the Relative Strength Index is wildly overbought. Somethin' got to give.

That something may be no more than a little drop, but more likely it will reach back toward the breakout points for a final kiss good-bye. Might even punish enthusiasts and trend following vultures by dropping lower than that. That gives the bull a chance to shake off all these newcomers.

ON THE OTHER HAND, should the GOLD PRICE close over $1,680 tomorrow, or silver above 3130c, y'all get OUT of the way. Just buy fistfuls and call your mama and borrow money from her and buy some more, because closes that high mean much more upside is coming.

'Tis a measure of the hopelessness of Our Bosses' and Betters' management that the gassy guesses of a central bank committee (the FOMC) can actually move markets.

Another measure of that hopelessness is that markets cannot figure out what it means. Somebody SUSPECTS the Fed will inflate more, and commodities and bonds rise hand in hand, which makes no sense at all. A bond amounts to no more that a purchase of dollars in the future, dollars which will then be worth less, so exactly WHY would a rumor of more inflation raise bond prices? Commodities I understand, because inflation will float their prices. Stocks refused to follow their usual illogic and climb on inflationary hints.

Add to all that the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy which in Europe is now becoming a Negative Interest Rate Policy where bond investors actually pay governments to loan them money. Have any of those Braniacs in central banks considered how long periods of low to no interest rates will affect all those pension funds? Not only are the central banks and their brains bankrupt, but they will also bankrupt everybody else.

Days like this I am really glad to be nothing but a natural born fool. That frees me from ever having to think deep thoughts, like them central bankers wear themselves out a-thinkin'.

Y'all are going to LIKE today's news.,

Dollar index kept on dropping on rumors of more Quantitative Easing, i.e., money printing. Surrendered another 14.9 basis points (0.2%) to 81.36. Dollar has plunged over the cliff of support, fell through 81.50 support, and now wants to try to smash through 81. This has a bad feel about it: too much movement all at once. Not the sort of action the Nice Government Men promote.

Euro continued to ascend today, floating on clouds of gas and airy speculation. Resistance above $1.2600, back to this year's first low, stands dead ahead. Euro closed up 0.27% at $1.2563. When it entered this ecstatic fit the Euro gapped up over its closely clustered 50 and 62 day moving averages. Those gaps sooner or later get filled. But if the euro breaks the $1.2600 barrier, the big downtrend line stares down from about $1.2725.

Mercy! Did I forget to tell y'all that Gold in Euros broke out today, too, with a E1331 close? Broke out of a rising triangle, hinting further advances.

Speaking of that, Gold broke out against the Yen too, clearing its 200 day moving average and escaping a congestion area.

Yen itself gained 0.17% to 127.40 cents (Y78.49).

Now let me tote this up. I'm such an ignerent fool I've got to add it on my faingers: gold broke out against the dollar, gold broke out against the yen, gold broke out against the euro -- why, it does look like the only money left standing is -- GOLD. Well, silver, too.,

Stock charts today look like a cross section of the Titanic's hull. Dow stumbled 115.3 (0.88%) to 13,057.46. Broader S&P500 lost 0.81% (11.41) to 1,402.08. Ben the Brainiac better get busy saving Wall Street!

SPECIAL OFFER: Swiss Twenty Francs.

Pay close attention, because y'all won't see this again. The Swiss twenty franc is one of the world's most popular coins gold. Minted to the standard of the Latin Monetary Union, 0.1867 troy ounce fine gold, the Swiss twenties contain exactly as much gold as a French 20 franc, Belgian 20 franc, or Italian 20 Lira. They are so well known that survival kits for US pilots used to contain twenty francs, Swiss or otherwise.

I bought a slew of them today and must turn them over quickly, so I am willing to sell them at a tiny premium of 4.9% over their gold value. Hard to believe, but that's cheaper than one ounce Krugerrands, Maple Leaves, or American Eagles, and these are small coins.

I will sell them in minimum lots of Ten (10) coins at $326.95 each, or $3,269.50 per lot + $25 shipping, a total of $3,294.50. Whether you order one lot or 20, the sole shipping charge is $25.

If you wire payment, we will WAIVE the $25 shipping charge.

No limit on the number of lots you may order, up to the total I have on hand. When my supply sells out, I cannot sell more at this price.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

If you want faster shipping, please send a wire (wire instructions will appear on your trade confirmation). If you wire payment, we will WAIVE and deduct the $25 shipping fee.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,669.60. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to . No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check. 


7. Mention GoldPrice.org in your email.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.


A Brief Look at the Current Gold Cycle

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 03:56 PM PDT

"History…is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, follies, and misfortunes of mankind."
— Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire

——————————————————

Gold is off to the races!

The ultimate dollar hedge was up $15 last we checked, to a 4-month high of near $1,670 an ounce. To be sure, that's still a ways off its nominal record of $1,858.30 an ounce, a peak it climbed shortly after credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded US debt last year. Nevertheless, it still looks pretty good on a one-month chart, up about $90. On a 5-year chart, which shows a near $1,000 increase, it looks spectacular. And on a 10-year chart, where the Midas Metal has added over $1,360 per ounce, it positively glistens.

We were thinking about our favorite unproductive asset while wandering around the Igreja de São Francisco (Church of Saint Francis), in the Portuguese city of Porto, just this morning. The building is the most prominent Gothic monument in the city, but it is perhaps most renowned for its outstanding Baroque interior decoration. Ornate wood carvings cover the walls…and gold leaf covers the carvings. There is supposedly around 450 kilograms of gold in the building, "from the days of plenty," our host told us, no doubt referring to the 300 years when Portugal extracted Brazilwood (16th century), sugar (16th to 18th centuries) and finally gold and diamonds (18th century) from her colonial jewel in South America.

Though not exactly reversed, the roles of Brazil and Portugal are very different today than they were during the colonial days. While Brazil's GDP chart has a distinct "hockey stick" look about it, Portugal's more closely resembles a flaccid (non-denominational) chorizo. At roughly 6%, Brazil's unemployment rate is flirting with record lows…while Portugal's rate, at 15.4%, is at a record high.

At one time, Portugal was a great place to be a banker. And maybe it will be again one day. But that day is not today. Right now, it's a great place to be a tourist.

As we've been saying, investing is all about cycles…both long and short. When Reckoner-in-Chief, Bill Bonner, announced his "Trade of the Decade" — sell stocks; buy gold — back in 2000, gold was languishing around the Brown Bottom…about $250 per ounce. Stocks, meanwhile, were all the rage. If you didn't have a Pets.com-type performer in your portfolio, people looked at you askance, as if you'd just confessed to disliking the popular "music" group, Creed.

And yet, those who followed Bill's "hunch" would have done very well at the close of the decade…when stocks had gone nowhere and gold was still very much on the up and up. (Creed, by the way, still sucks…)

Joel Bowman
for The Daily Reckoning

A Brief Look at the Current Gold Cycle originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. ".


Markets are Rigged…So What?

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 03:40 PM PDT

Great gobs of money continue to drain away from stock mutual funds. And even some big-name investors have put up the white flag. Louis Bacon famously gave back $2 billion to his investors a couple of weeks ago because, he says, he can't figure the market out. This has led some to say that the era of stocks is over. "The cult of equities is dying," writes the oft-quoted Bill Gross, who manages money at Pimco. "Like a once bright-green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors' impressions of 'stocks for the long run' or any run have mellowed as well." Well, maybe… I'm with David Goldman, who writes in the Asia Times under the penname Spengler that Gross is only "half-right." The market, as always, has its enthusiasms. He writes: Visible and reliable cash flows trade at an unprecedented premium as bond yields collapse. Valuations of utility, tobacco, energy trust and other big dividend payers are stupidly rich and are likely to remain so....


Markets are Rigged…So What?

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 03:29 PM PDT

Great gobs of money continue to drain away from stock mutual funds. And even some big-name investors have put up the white flag. Louis Bacon famously gave back $2 billion to his investors a couple of weeks ago because, he says, he can't figure the market out.

This has led some to say that the era of stocks is over. "The cult of equities is dying," writes the oft-quoted Bill Gross, who manages money at Pimco. "Like a once bright-green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors' impressions of 'stocks for the long run' or any run have mellowed as well."

Well, maybe…

I'm with David Goldman, who writes in the Asia Times under the penname Spengler that Gross is only "half-right." The market, as always, has its enthusiasms. He writes:

Visible and reliable cash flows trade at an unprecedented premium as bond yields collapse. Valuations of utility, tobacco, energy trust and other big dividend payers are stupidly rich and are likely to remain so. A sea change in equity valuations has put a premium on secure cash flows while amplifying the effect of uncertainty. It is possible to measure these changes by a number of statistical means, some direct, some indirect.

Goldman points to mining stocks, which are very uncertain and have returned a negative 24% in the last two years. Utilities, by contrast, are very stable. Utilities have returned 30% in the last two years. That's very frustrating for those holding mining stocks.

He offers more evidence, but you get the idea. Stable, predictable cash flows and yields are popular. Unstable, uncertain cash flows with no yield are not. (Eventually, this will break. Timing is, as always, uncertain.)

Second, I wonder if the points Gross raises are even relevant. I mean, investors have been yanking their money out of stock mutual funds since the crisis of 2008. The market has more than doubled since. And it is now within spitting distance of all-time highs.

Volume, liquidity, public participation in equities… All of these are overrated concepts. Market values can move dramatically with hardly any volume at all and be just as real as a change accompanied by lots of volume.

Beyond these objections, though, I think there is some truth to what Gross is saying.

I hear more and more people say the market is rigged against them. They say it is a game for insiders to fleece gullible outsiders. Wall Street has not helped this image at all. There seems to be no end to lurid scandals or crises of confidence in the system.

I have to say I, too, have felt this way more often of late. However, I believe there are ways to invest safely and feel good about it. You can ignore the scandals. You can ignore Wall Street.

One way does involve direct investments in stocks, but by paying careful attention to the tenets of what I call the CODE System:

  • Cheap — as measured by stocks trading below replacement costs or below private market value
  • Owner-operators — as measured by high insider ownership of the people in charge and/or a good track record of delivering results for shareholders
  • Disclosures — which means a business we can understand and that reports results with good disclosures. Transparency is another word for the virtue we seek here
  • Excellent financial condition — as measured by a relative absence of liabilities, lots of cash and/or cash flow and the ability to "do deals" (i.e., borrow at super-attractive rates, take advantage of opportunities, convert assets to other uses, etc.).

I like to call this philosophy "investing like a dealmaker." It is one I've distilled from a decade of experience as a corporate banker doing deals, along with my own ongoing two-decade study of investing. Of course, I've also managed money on my own account all along the way.

Another way to beat rigged markets is to invest in funds or private partnerships that also pass the CODE test.

For example, you can easily buy shares in Gabelli's Focus Five Fund (GWSVX). This is a fund with a well-defined mission and cut from a process that has produced stunning results. Own some shares and sit on them. Let portfolio manager Dan Miller do the hard work for you.

So my ultimate answer to Gross is this: Who cares? For those of us willing to dig, there are always plenty of opportunities — some of them in the stock market and some not. The question is not about any cult of anything. It's about what makes sense and what doesn't. Whatever other people do or think is irrelevant.

I've been particularly influenced by the ideas of Martin Whitman, who for years managed the Third Avenue Value Fund. He's also written a pair of excellent, though technical, books that express similar ideas: Value Investing: A Balanced Approach and The Aggressive Conservative Investor. (Far less technical, though written in the same spirit, is my own first book, Invest Like a Dealmaker: Secrets From a Former Banking Insider.)

In my Capital & Crisis newsletter, I've been more draconian in applying the CODE of late, which in part has accounted for an itchy trigger finger in selling positions. The time to get tough is when the market is merrily rolling along. Before things roll over — not after. Otherwise, I'm happy to sit with my cash for a while until an extraordinary new opportunity opens up.

More time and care yield a much more-satisfying result. This is the way it is in life. Investing is no different. The results will be better and more satisfying than if we try to take shortcuts to find and trade more ideas. In my mind, it's a lot like finding and eating good food.

Last night, we ate dinner on the back patio amid the hum of cicadas. We had basil from our garden, tomatoes from my in-laws' garden and cheese from a local farm. Of course, it would be easier to just buy tomatoes and cheese from the grocery store. But it would not be the same.

I grilled chicken thighs over hardwood charcoal. (We raise chickens, but for eggs.) It's a rare thing to do it this way nowadays. It takes more time. You have to light the fire and let the coals ash over and spread them around. The heat is uneven and you have to watch more closely what you are grilling.

I remember one little guest asking once, "What's that?"

"Charcoal," I said.

"Oh," he said. "My dad just turns it on," he said.

Yes, it would be faster to have an electric grill that you just turn on. But I can't help but think of the words of that great eater (and cook and writer) Nicolas Freeling. "Nothing, of course, could be more stupid than an electric barbecue," he writes in his classic The Kitchen Book. "The principle of a grill is that the food should meet smoke as well as heat."

Of course, it would be much easier to just buy ticker symbols based on what you hear other people tell you on TV or what you hear in the news, rather than do all this research. But the result, like a store-bought tomato, is very different from the juicy blood-red tomato from a home garden. It is the difference between the work of an electric grill and that done by flames and smoke.

Everyone is always in a hurry, it seems to me. I say relax and slow down with your life and money. Enjoy, savor and seek out quality over quantity.

I just finished reading Bill and Will Bonner's book, Family Fortunes: How to Build Family Wealth and How to Hold on to It for 100 Years. The key to old money — those long-lasting fortunes — boils down to one thing. "The secret is simply this," the authors write: "The rich take the long view."

They go on:

"If you look carefully, almost all 'Old Money' secrets can be traced to a single source: a longer-term outlook. The truly wealthy are careful to spend their money on things that hold their value over time…

"Serious Old Money investors barely follow the news and never react to it. They know that the really important trends take years to develop and then many years to play themselves out. You can take your time… months… years… before making a decision. There is no need to feel rushed…

"Investment success happens by taking big positions in big trends and leaving them alone for a long time."

Not easy to do, but I think this is right. It is something to shoot for.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

Markets are Rigged…So What? originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. ".


Greyerz - This Move In Gold & Silver Will Look Spectacular

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 03:20 PM PDT

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News, "This is going to be one of the fastest moves that we've seen in this bull market (in gold)." Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, also said, "... silver is going to move a lot faster than gold." He also cautioned, "... The ascent is going to be mind boggling." 

Here is what Greyerz had to say:  "Eric, this is a good day to talk because the breakout we have been talking about is happening here and now. It had to come, both technically and fundamentally. We are always looking at this market from a fundamental point of view, but the technicals are now confirming the breakout."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold – Hounds Have Done Opened!

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 02:51 PM PDT

HOUSTON – As we say here in the south, "the hounds have done opened!"  Naturally that means that the dogs have picked up the scent of the (fox, raccoon, wild boar or whatever the hunt is about) and have let out their signature yelp or howl.  In this case the "hunt" is the gold market and the hounds are sending their magical music back to our camp just as sweetly as when it is a boar hunt up in East Texas or Louisiana.   When the dogs have "opened" it means it is "game on" and the hunting action is "fixin' to get  interesting." 

20120823-Gold-1
Gold, Weekly.  Note the apparent change in trend as evidenced by the MACD. 


With central banks buying physical gold at a 500-tonne per year pace; large well-known and high profile fund managers such as Pimco's Bill Gross, John Paulson and George Soros adding to gold and metals ETF positions; likely new monetary easing to come from the U.S., the E.U., China and probably other central banks; all heaped on deadly labor and political trouble in the mines of South Africa, we have what amounts to a multi-pronged pitchfork catalyst for the long-awaited consolidation breakout for the yellow metal.

20120823-Gold-2
December 2012 COMEX gold futures, daily.  Shows the tight consolidation breakout. 

After a nearly year-long consolidation in a flag or pennant formation we can point to an attempted breakout of that consolidation (first chart).  Interestingly, the follow through surge higher once gold eclipsed the $1,620s to $1,640s – the zone which has capped all gold rallies since June – does indeed have a convincing "look" to it on short term tick charts, suggesting that it has been fueled by both new long positioning – in size - and by speculator short covering.

 
We will get to see the beginning stages of that trader positioning in this week's CFTC commitments of traders report (COT) due late Friday for trader positions as of the close on Tuesday, when the breakout was just getting underway.  We suspect that report will worthy of careful study this weekend. 


We expect to comment more about that in our subscriber charts at the usual time this weekend.  By then it would not surprise us if the hounds have already gone to the bugling stage, with the game actually in sight of the leaders of the pack. 


Euro Gold closing in on its All Time High

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 02:50 PM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] The following chart reveals the strength of gold when priced in terms of the Euro Currency. Notice that it has been steadily working higher and is within striking distance of an overhead resistance level coming in just shy of 1350. If can push through this level, it should be able to match or exceed its all time high. It has been in a consolidation pattern since late last year but with a definite higher bias as can be seen from the series of higher lows riding along the lower red support line. Notice that mini-trend higher has accelerated since April of this year. ...


Follow-up To Yesterday

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 02:28 PM PDT

"Whether it be gold shares on their own, compared to gold, versus bonds or versus the stock market, gold shares are rising from the dead." - Aden Sisters, sourced from Peter Brimelow's Marketwatch column (link below).
Gold is up about another $30 from when I published yesterday's post.  I never assume that we'll get a move like that in 24 hours, but I know that we have days ahead of us in which gold will move $100 or more. Gold is up nearly $150 in just over the last 62 hours. 

Yesterday I posted a 3-yr weekly chart.  I thought it might be interesting to look at an even "bigger" picture of gold.  Here's a 10-yr, monthly chart of the Comex gold:


There's really not a lot that can be said beyond what is being conveyed by the chart itself.  Leonardo Da Vinci could not have created a more perfect diagram of a bull market.  We've had three nasty bull market price corrections during this 11-yr bull.  I've highlighted them with the red circles.  Each one is characterized by a quick fall from a cyclical price peak, followed by a period of consolidation, followed by another extended move to a new high.  I excpect this time around to be no different.

Again, notice the positioning of the MACD signal.  Given that this is being measured on a monthly time frame basis, it will take a long, extended move higher to produce an over-bought MACD reading.  In other words, every other wildly bullish indication is being confirmed by this indicator.

I was mentioned this morning in Peter Brimelow's Marketwatch column - Brimelow is probably the most experienced and knowledgeable of the mainstream gold market reporters/writers:  "'The Golden Truth website, reportedly written by a gold-market professional, says on Wednesday after a detailed chart discussion: "From both a fundamental and technical standpoint, the indicators for gold to make a run to new highs have not been this bullish in the 11-year bull market.'"  Here's his report from today:  LINK  Brimelow has a lot of connections in the market not available to most writers and it's worth checking Marketwatch for his reports.

I'll end with one thought for you ponder:  The gold (and silver) bull market has had an impressive 11-yr run, given the incredible amount of resources that the western Central Banks and media spin-machines has thrown at gold in an attempt to suppress the price and discredit gold's importance to any financial system - just imagine how powerful and violent the move will be once the Fed/ECB/BOE lose all ability to control the price...



This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1% and 2% Again

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 02:15 PM PDT

Gold climbed $12.51 to $1666.91 in Asia before it fell back to $1656.90 by a little before 8AM EST, but it then rose to as high as $1674.78 in late morning New York trade and ended with a gain of 0.88%. Silver surged to as high as $30.81 and ended with a gain of 2.28%.


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Hard into Resistance

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 02:13 PM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Alasdair Macleod–The EU Is Rapidly Approaching Its Day Of Reckoning 23.Aug.12

Posted: 23 Aug 2012 01:57 PM PDT

www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents

First off congratulations to Alasdair. He is now the Director of Research at GoldMoney. Alasdair has been closely watching gold and silver's rather rapid ascent and he believes that it is indicative of the rapidly deteriorating financial system. He's hopeful that at some point the political elite will become aware of the potential disaster that their actions have cause and they will be forced to mend their evil ways. We only wish that we could believe it as well, but when was the last time you saw a politician do the right thing and put aside the interests of the global financial elite for the benefit of society as a whole? Not recently, that's for certain.

Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

No comments:

Post a Comment