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- Betting On Mining Stocks’ Higher Prices May Not Be Such A Good Idea
- Gold Rises But “Keeps Bearish Bias” as Beijing Investment Bucks China Slowdown
- PM Summer Doldrums 4 - Hamilton
- Gold And Silver Daily Outlook - July 13
- 6 Large Cap Dividend Stocks Fueled On Hefty Profits
- Deutsche Bank’s Brebner: Gold Headed To $2,000/oz By Early 2013 Amid Inflationary Bias By Central Banks
- 27 Things That Every American Should Know About The National Debt
- Artificial Intelligence & Fedspectations: Long Road Ahead For Silver
- Profit Citadels Despite Deepening Chaos
- Bloodletting
- Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class
- The CME On Gold As Collateral And Its Unsurprising London-Based Custodian
- Dollar Could Fall Off Fiscal Cliff Into Euro Abyss
- Gold Price: Flat from a Year Ago
- The Journey, Part IV: Long-Term Transition
- The Next Major Move in Precious Metals Is Close
- Ronald Reagan’s Address to the Nation November 5, 1984
- Reading Market News as Good or Bad
- Precious Metals Higher but Keeping 'Bearish Bias'
- ‘Peak Gold' – South Africa Output Collapse Continues
- Despite Outlook, QE3 Uncertainty Range Bounds Bullion
- Greg Hunter: Middle East, LIBOR, $2,000 Gold & More
- Syyenergy7: Silver & Marilyn Monroe Coin
- Silver Manipulation: Critically Thinking
- Lawrence Williams: LIBOR Scandal Brings Gold Price Manipulation Once More to the Fore
- Gold market manipulation issue seeping into polite company
| Betting On Mining Stocks’ Higher Prices May Not Be Such A Good Idea Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:17 AM PDT
Based on the July 13th, 2012 Premium Update. Visit our archives for more gold & silver analysis. All the fundamental factors that have made gold such a stellar investment for the last decade are still intact. Fiat money is still being produced on easy street around the world, which in turn fuels worries about the dwindling purchase power of the currencies; central banks are still accumulating gold; real interest rates are still negative so investors don't give up any interest rate by investing in gold. However, there are several things that have been affecting gold negatively over the past few months, much to our dismay. One of them is the dollar's strength against the euro and gold's recent tendency to move inversely to the dollar and in line with more risk-linked assets. This has undermined some of its safe-haven appeal. You can observe that for example in the HUI Index. Gold stocks are not only declining, but they once again do so faster than gold. Let's take a look at the HUI Index chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com; if you are reading this essay on sunshineprofits.com, you may click the above chart to enlarge.) The miners have moved lower, declining for six consecutive days now. On Thursday, they closed below the 400 level. This is an important and bearish development. The bullish, intra-day reversal seen on Thursday does not change the medium-term bearish picture which is in place here. A pullback has been seen recently following the significant March – May decline and it seems that a continuation of the decline may now be seen. This is in tune with what was seen in 2008 but declines and rallies are less volatile this time as they are taking more time to play out. Nonetheless, the bearish implications remain, and mining stocks' investors should seriously consider limiting exposure if this has not yet been done. Let us now move on to miners to gold ratio chart to see if miners are really underperforming gold. In the chart (if you are reading this essay on sunshineprofits.com, you may click the above chart to enlarge), we see that the ratio declined heavily this week. This means that gold stocks declined much more than gold. The ratio also had a pullback in 2008 – consequently, what we have seen since May is not overly surprising. The trend remains down and right now we appear to be in another wave lower within a bigger downtrend. To finish off today's essay let us have a glance at our in-house developed technical indicator that was designed to detect extreme situations on the precious metals market. Looking at the SP Gold Stock Extreme #2 Indicator, we see that it has suggested at least a temporary rally in the mining stocks – the indicator moved below the dashed line based on Wednesday's closing prices. The intra-day decline on Thursday followed by higher prices later in the session may have been what was suggested by this indicator a few days ago – the second part of the session. Maybe more short-term rally will be seen or maybe not – at this time, it is unclear in our view as we have already seen a rally – in the final hours of Thursday's session. Summing up, the outlook for the mining stocks is bearish for the medium term. The short term is a bit unclear based on the intra-day developments seen on Thursday. While situation in the mining stocks is important, the situation in Europe and in the main currency indices is truly critical as far as impact on precious metals sector is concerned. This is one of the things that we discuss in today's Premium Update. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * * Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio? Sunshine Profits provides professional support for Gold & Silver Investors and Traders. Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits' Premium Service gain access to Gold Charts, Gold Investment Tools and Analysis of Gold & Silver Prices Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sign-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations. All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Gold Rises But “Keeps Bearish Bias” as Beijing Investment Bucks China Slowdown Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:15 AM PDT
U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold rose to $1586 per ounce Friday morning in London, reversing losses from the previous two days but leaving gold more than 2% below its level of a month ago. "Gold has been a range trade with a bearish bias given the progressively lower highs since late February," says the latest technical analysis from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. Prices to buy silver meantime climbed briefly above $27.50 per ounce Friday morning, as stocks, commodities and government bonds all ticked higher – with the exception of Spanish and Italian stock markets, which dipped following news of a ratings downgrade for Italy. Heading into the weekend, prices to buy gold with Dollars were more or less unchanged on the week, while silver prices were up around 25¢ from last Friday. Euro gold prices meantime looked set for a 0.7% weekly gain, with the Euro/Dollar exchange rate dipping back below $1.22 this morning. New data from China today said the world's second-largest economy grew at an annual rate of 7.6% in the second quarter of the year, slowing down from 8.1% in Q1, according to official GDP data. "The expectation for weakness in the second quarter was pretty strong," says BNP Paribas economist Ken Peng in Beijing. Fixed asset investment by state firms however showed a 13.8% annual increase in June – up from 10.0% a month earlier – while overall fixed investment growth ticked higher to 20.4%, up from 20.1% in May. "The investment number is the surprise," says BNP's Peng. "There appears to have been a significant pick-up. That is [stimulus] policy beginning to work…we are looking for a small rebound in the third quarter and a bigger rebound in the fourth quarter." China's central bank has twice cut interest rates in recent weeks. "In China," says today's commodities note from Commerzbank, "bank deposits are likely no longer to be nominally profitable soon, following the recent reduction of the deposit interest rate by the central bank to 3%. "We continue to regard gold as an attractive means of protecting one's capital against inflation…Negative real interest rates on the one hand and the high [inflation] risks on the other should lend support to the price of gold in the medium to long term." China has overtaken India in recent months to become the world's biggest source of demand to buy gold. Over in Europe, Italy managed to sell €5.25 billion of government debt Friday, despite being downgraded last night by ratings agency Moody's. The average yield on 3-year debt at today's auction was 4.65% – down from 5.3% paid last month at an auction of similar bonds. A day earlier, Moody's downgraded Italy to two notches above junk, and one notch above Spain. "Italy's near-term economic outlook has deteriorated, as manifest in both weaker growth and higher unemployment, which creates risk of failure to meet fiscal consolidation targets," a Moody's statement said. "[This] in turn could weaken market confidence further, raising the risk of a sudden stop in market funding." In Madrid, Spain's government could take control of budgets in regions that fail to meet deficit targets, Spanish budget minister Cristobal Montoro said Thursday. The national government may in return help regional governments to finance themselves, though Montoro denies this would take the form of jointly-issued debt. "This idea of hispabonds in the sense of mutualizing risk has never been on table," said Montoro. Germany's government last month agreed to underwrite regional debt, and from next year states could start issuing debt for which they and the federal government are jointly liable. Here in London, the Bank of England and HM Treasury have launched their Funding for Lending scheme, which aims to increase lending by financial institutions to the "real economy" by up to £80 billion. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| PM Summer Doldrums 4 - Hamilton Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:08 AM PDT An informative article covering the seasonal aspects of gold and silver , with charts. :thumbs_up: Right now is within the "optimum" time of the year to buy. http://321gold.com/editorials/hamilt...ton071312.html FYI, R. |
| Gold And Silver Daily Outlook - July 13 Posted: 13 Jul 2012 10:02 AM PDT By Lior Cohen: Gold and silver, much like many other commodities, didn't do much yesterday as both metals moved in different directions for the second consecutive day. U.S. jobless claims declined by 26,000 to 350,000. China's GDP growth rate report for Q2 2012 came out and didn't even meet expectations: China expanded by only 7.6% in annual terms during Q2. During Q1 China's GDP grew by 8.1%. This low growth rate may adversely affect not only commodities rates, but also exchange rates such as the Aussie dollar. On today's agenda are the U.S core PPI and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Gold decreased again on Thursday by 0.66% to $1,565.3. Silver, on the other hand, rose by 0.51% to $27.16. During July, gold declined by 2.42% and silver by 1.63%. Furthermore, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) edged down by 0.4 and reached 152.59 by July 12. Currently, GLD is rising by nearly 1.16%. Complete Story » |
| 6 Large Cap Dividend Stocks Fueled On Hefty Profits Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:47 AM PDT By ZetaKap: As a dividend investor, are you looking for stocks with reliable yields of 3% and greater? One great place to search is among large caps that can consistently sustain their payouts due to considerable profitability. It's even better when those profitable large caps have received positive analyst ratings, meaning now might be the time to buy. Today we screened for stocks of this nature, and came up with a compelling list. The Operating Profit Margin is a profitability ratio that measures the effectiveness of the company's operating efficiency. This metric allows investors to see how much profit is left after all variable costs are covered. If the company's margin is increasing over time this means that it's earning more per dollar of sales. Finding trends in the Operating Profit Margin helps investors identify companies that are improving profitability over time and managing the economic landscape better than competitors. Return on Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:42 AM PDT
from hardassetsinvestor.com: DB's head of metals research discusses prospects for gold prices over the short and long term, including insight into the Fed, QE3, China, India and Europe. Daniel Brebner is head of metals research at Deutsche Bank. He has consistently been cited as one of the most accurate metals forecasters by Bloomberg. HAI's Sumit Roy caught up with Brebner in DB's London office recently to discuss the latest developments in the gold market. Be sure to check out our interview archives for more commentary and analysis from other notable guests. HAI: We haven't seen gold rally this year, despite all the negative headlines from the eurozone and even here in the U.S. This is in contrast to last year, when gold climbed relentlessly to its record high above $1,920 amid similar bad news. Why is gold behaving differently this time? Has it lost its safe-haven status? Daniel Brebner: I don't think it's lost its safe-haven status. The gold price has been reacting to a risk-aversion environment, which is linked to perceptions of low growth globally. Growth issues have been emerging not only in Europe, but also increasingly in the U.S. and in China. This is creating deflationary pressures and deflationary risks, which is resulting in a liquidity squeeze. Keep on reading @ hardassetsinvestor.com |
| 27 Things That Every American Should Know About The National Debt Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:33 AM PDT
from theeconomiccollapseblog.com: The U.S. government has stolen $15,876,457,645,132.66 from future generations of Americans, and we continue to add well over a hundred million dollars to that total every single day day. The 15 trillion dollar binge that we have been on over the past 30 years has fueled the greatest standard of living the world has ever seen, but this wonderful prosperity that we have been enjoying has been a lie. It isn't real. We have been living way above our means for so long that we do not have any idea of what "normal" actually is anymore. But every debt addict hits "the wall" eventually, and the same thing is going to happen to us as a nation. At some point the weight of our national debt is going to cause our financial system to implode, and every American will feel the pain of that collapse. Under our current system, there is no mathematical way that this debt can ever be paid back. The road that we are on will either lead to default or to hyperinflation. We have piled up the biggest debt in the history of the world, and if there are future generations of Americans they will look back and curse us for what we did to them. We like to think of ourselves as much wiser than previous generations of Americans, but the truth is that we have been so foolish that it is hard to put it into words. Whenever I do an article about the national debt, Democrats leave comments blaming the Republicans and Republicans leave comments blaming the Democrats. Keep on reading @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com |
| Artificial Intelligence & Fedspectations: Long Road Ahead For Silver Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:28 AM PDT
from silvervigilante.com: Scurrying for the reasons silver was volatile this morning, the white noise of the obvious hummed in the back of my mind. That white noise informed me that I was likely to find no reasons for the sudden spike this morning in the price of the devil's metal. No war with Iran, no quantitative easing, no technological breakthrough demanding increasing amounts of silver. Instead the black hole of artificial intelligence trading had been ticked at the $26.50 level, most likely where thousands if not millions of automated buy orders are triggered, and programmed to sell somewhere before $27.30. These critical mass artificial intelligence trading platforms will in effect dictate the price of silver in such a way so as to benefit speculators. Thus, savers and stackers in the metals will be frustrated by extremely volatile conditions and charts totally out-of-whack. Other markets are responding predictably to shattered fespectations over quantitative easing. The short-term price of gold and silver will remain intimately tied to Federal Reserve policy. This makes gold and silver rather exposed in the short-term, as panoply of news blitzes and market movements by market makers could send the metals down in the absence of quantitative easing hinting. Keep on reading @ silvervigilante.com |
| Profit Citadels Despite Deepening Chaos Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:28 AM PDT "The rate at which the majority of the eurozone is descending into insolvency is accelerating. The rescue package for Spanish banks, which appears to have been provisionally set at a figure designed to impress the markets, hardly even produced a dead-cat bounce. All it has achieved is to draw attention yet again to the helplessness of the authorities in dealing with multiple debt-traps. So what is the answer? "Explain why it is that those countries, driven by the consumption so loved by Keynesians and monetarists alike, have turned into basket-cases, while economies driven by a savings culture persistently confound all neoclassical theory by making their citizens better off, in every case." "A call to arms for central banks" Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney, 6/16/2012 Amid all the increasing challenges in the Markets and Economy there are three "Fortress Asset" Sectors which will likely return Profits over the mid and long-term regardless of Boom or Bust, Inflation or Deflation. To understand why we select just these three Sectors first consider "The Bureau of Labor statistics reported the increase/decrease in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate for June 2012 on Friday, July 6th. Stocks plunged on the news. Why? The BLS reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 80,000 new jobs in June. Isn't that good? Well first of all, it is a false figure. The true figure is there was a net loss of 44,000 jobs in June. The BLS decided in their infinite wisdom that they think, they guess, they pretended that new businesses that started up in June created 126,000 new jobs. They have no idea what new businesses started, nor did they count new jobs in these phantom new businesses. This 126,000 phony figure was added to the loss of 44,000 jobs to fudge a positive number for the release of the June jobs report. This phony figure is called the CESBD adjustment, or the Birth/Death adjustment. Birth/Death refers to businesses, not people. The truth is the economy lost 44,000 jobs in June. This is abysmal. This is recession. This is an indictment of government fiscal policy, of Fed monetary policy, of tax policy and regulation of businesses. We need a true increase of 150,000 new jobs each month just to break even with population growth, and need millions more to put displaced workers back in a job. "The truth is, the economy is falling off a cliff, housing transactions are essentially non-existent, jobs are declining, growth is shrinking." "Current Weekend Report" Robert McHugh, Main Line Investors, 7/7/12 There is a War going on between the forces of Inflation (e.g. mainly Central Bank Money Printing and 80 Million/Yr. World Population-growth-generated Demand) and the forces of Deflation (e.g. several contracting Major Economies around the world, resulting in Increasing Unemployment and a slowing Velocity of Money). The "War" is disguised by Bogus Official Figures as indicated by shadowstats.com (see Note 1 below) and Robert McHugh (above). The Central banks will ultimately "Win" via QE-to-Infinity but that "Win" will be a Pyrrhic victory because it will bring Hyperinflation and Stagnant Economies, i.e. Hyperstagflation. Fortunately there are three "Fortress Profit Sectors" which will suffice to Protect and Profit, despite Hyperstagflation. Jim Sinclair correctly forecast the Central Banks of the World would implement QE-to-Infinity. And so they continue to do so. Just in the last few weeks:
This Q.E. et al. has already resulted in Threshold Hyperinflation, e.g. 9.3% in the US (per Shadowstats). Bogus Official Statistics Mask these Realities of Threshold Hyperinflation, Increasing Unemployment [22.7% in the U.S.] and Negative GDP Growth (-2.17% in the USA). Indeed the supposed "Deflation" much Ballyhooed by the Mainstream Financial Media is just Fiction. Consider Adrian Douglas' point: "There are frequent claims that the U.S. economy has entered a period of "deflation." These claims are totally unfounded and are false. Deflation can only be a persistent state of general price decline. In fact, in examining price trends, the U.S. is experiencing shocking price increases of over 15% per annum. To illustrate this, …the Continuous Commodities Index, CCI over the past ten years. "…shows there are periods of high inflation and brief periods of "disinflation." "Disinflation" is a period when the money supply expansion slows but does not contract. …(But) There is absolutely no sign of any reversal in the general trend of inflation. "…The index covers a broad range of industrial raw materials for the production of energy, food, metals, and textiles. The CCI composition remains unchanged since 1995 and so suffers no hedonistic massaging or adjustments unlike the government produced Consumer Price Index, CPI, and Producer Price Index, PPI." "Deflation – Nowhere to be Seen" Adrian Douglas, Market Force Analysis, 7/7/12 Three Sectors have exceeded or at least "Kept up with Real Inflation" in recent years and of those Fortress Asset Sectors, two will likely do so consistently in the Long Run. As well, one Mini-Sector looks to return Spectacular Profits over the short to mid-term. Indeed, Deepcaster expects to make a specific stock recommendation/s on our forecast Pull-Back in the next few weeks. One Inflation-Sensitive Sector will not automatically do well but will be quite profitable at times and not so much at others. Crude Oil is a Truth Teller about Real Inflation because it gets used up (and thus is not easily subject to Price Manipulation over the Mid and Long Term). Despite recent Pundit forecasts of $70 or $60 oil, Oil and Energy shares rallied recently (as we forecast) and shot up 6% on the Eurozone announcement that it would liquefy the Eurozone Banks for free (i.e. at Taxpayer expense). Indeed Crude marched even higher to $87ish last week. Bottom line: More paper/digital money chasing limited Crude Supplies in increasing demand means higher prices, especially with a wider Mideast War a possibility. Crude Prices will fall temporarily on Bad Fundamentals News (e.g., on a Negative Employment Report) and will rise on QE and Equities Positive Events. But until the Next Major Equities Takedown the Crude Price Trend is likely still up. After all, for example, even though China is slowing, its Crude Usage is still increasing, albeit at a lower rate. But mid to long-term that Uptrend will be punctuated by significant drops in the Crude Price when, for example, that Equities Downturn is coupled with increasing supply from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and other Frac-Fields. Thus those who have bought their Oil Producer Stocks with the idea that they will reflect sustained Gain and Yield without interruption will be most disappointed. For the short term, the quality O & G companies should continue to perform well. Longer term, there will be Major Downturns and Rebounds. However, the two Sectors which will do well going forward regardless are Essential Food Commodities and the Precious Monetary Metals (with Periodic Price setbacks in the latter from Cartel Price Suppression). Needless to say, it is essential to invest in the latter two Sectors with the right timing and in the right "vehicle". Another Essential Profit Citadel is High-Yield Stocks whose Total Return (Gain plus Yield) is aimed at beating Real Inflation (9.3% in the U.S., e.g.) as is Deepcaster's High Yield Portfolio (see Note 2). Investors lose significant Purchasing Power if they hold Fiat Currency denominated Assets which return less than Real Inflation (see Note 1). Holders of Gold and Silver bullion and their Miner's shares have been disappointed in recent months as repeated Cartel Price Takedowns have depressed Prices, when Economic and Financial Developments would (without manipulation) have otherwise dictated Explosively Bullish moves. But we Precious Metals Partisans should not be disappointed, but rather see such Price Takedown as Superb Buying Opportunities. There is increasing demand for Physical Gold and Silver, increasing Central Bank Buying, and both are in a long-term uptrend. And The Cartel is increasingly unlikely to be able to generate deep Takedowns, or sustain Takedowns for long time periods. Our Investment "Mantra" – "Buy and Hold rarely works Anymore" does not apply to Gold and Silver Bullion held in one's own Physical Possession. Buying and Holding Physical Bullion on dips is the very best way to Profit and Protect Wealth, thus creating a Durable Profit Citadel. Best regards, Deepcaster July 12, 2012 Note 1: Bogus Official Statistics mask the Effects of ongoing QE and related Actions. Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com) Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported June 14, 2012 1.70% / 9.30% U.S. Unemployment reported June 1, 2012 8.2% / 22.7% U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported June 28, 2012 1.99% / -2.17% U.S. M3 reported June 18, 2012 (Month of May, Y.O.Y.) No Official Report / 2.52% Note 2: Deepcaster, Jim Rogers, and Marc Faber all agree on one increasingly threatening consequence of QE et al.: "Bailouts and loose monetary policy won't create lasting Economic Improvements but will continue to push up Real Inflation Rates. Indeed it has already! The Central Banks grossly excessive Monetary Inflation has pushed up prices in Key Subsectors. Deepcaster has recently made two Recos designed to profit from this Price Inflation. Indeed, the Real Numbers, (as opposed to Bogus Official Statistics which facilitate the Delusion that the Basic Economic Trend is net Deflationary) show Real Inflation in the U.S. (e.g.) is already Threshold Hyperinflationary at 9.3% per year (per shadowstats.com*). Thus Deepcaster's High Yield Portfolio is aimed at achieving Total Return well in excess of Real Inflation. Deepcaster's High Potential Speculator Portfolio also offers antidotes to Real Inflation. To consider our High-Yield Stocks Portfolio with Recent Yields of 18.5%, 8.6%, 10.6%, 26%, 6.7%, 8%, 10.6%, 14.9%, 10% and 15.6% when added to the portfolio; go to www.deepcaster.com and click on 'High Yield Portfolio'. In such an environment, Speculations can also be profitable. Deepcaster's High Potential Speculator Portfolio has shown the following profits in recent months: 56% Profit on Premium Gold Miner on June 1, 2012 after just 2 days (i.e., about 10,100% annualized!) 87% Total Return on Agricultural Blue Chip on April 23, 2012 after just 208 days (i.e., about 152% profit annualized on the remaining half of the original position) 57% Profit on Agricultural Blue Chip on February 24, 2012 after just 149 days (i.e., about 140% annualized!) So recently we Recommended a stock whose recent yield was 15.5%. And we forecast where Food and Fuel and other Major Sector prices are likely to go next. And we identify which Sectors are likely to spike and spike hard very soon. And we offer a very valuable Nugget of Information regarding Gold Price Moves. For all this, read our July Letter, "15.5% Recent Yield Buy Reco; Spikes Likely; Gold Nugget; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates; July Letter & Holiday Special" in the 'Letters Archive' at deepcaster.com. |
| Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:16 AM PDT
from brucekrasting.blogspot.com: A short story London has always been the center for the Euro dollar deposit market, but most banks had NY operations that also made markets in Euro depos. For a time, I sat on one of those desks. This was way before the Internet and live-streaming prices. Brokers communicated market prices over squawk boxes that were piled up on every desk. There was constant drone of background noise. I can still hear the voices : I'm 7/8th bid sixes, looking for an offer I'm an 1/8th around the figure 4 on threes. Looking to do business in the middle. Last at three daughters (3/4%) on the offer in twos, buyer wants to build. Keep on reading @ brucekrasting.blogspot.com |
| Financialization and Crony Capitalism Have Gutted the Middle Class Posted: 13 Jul 2012 09:10 AM PDT
from oftwominds.com: The neofeudal colonization of the "home market" has transformed the middle class into debt serfs. While these trends have certainly undermined middle-class wealth and income, there are five other less politically acceptable dynamics at work: The divergence of State/private vested interests and the interests of the middle class Keep on reading @ oftwominds.com |
| The CME On Gold As Collateral And Its Unsurprising London-Based Custodian Posted: 13 Jul 2012 08:53 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: While the increasing use of gold as accepted explicit (not implied) collateral has long been known, especially with an increasing push by Germany to receive gold as the ultimate guarantee backstop of the only viable Eurozone extension scheme, the Redemption Fund, the other side's perspective, that of the exchanges has been missing. Now, courtesy of a report by Harriet Hunnable from the CME, titled "Some Insights into Changes in the Gold OTC market", we can see just how the status quo views gold's rising role in a world increasingly short of good collateral (even if, as the Chairman says, it is anything but money). And yes: that the CME has its gold custodian facilities with JPM London, where it is subsequently infinitely rehypothecatable and where it serves to restock the occasiona physical shortage here and there, does not surprise us at all. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Dollar Could Fall Off Fiscal Cliff Into Euro Abyss Posted: 13 Jul 2012 08:38 AM PDT As the fiscal cliff approaches in the United States and the euro zone crisis drags down global growth rates, central banks across the world have been delivering more and more stimulus... Read |
| Gold Price: Flat from a Year Ago Posted: 13 Jul 2012 08:34 AM PDT Gold in Dollars just went flat from 12 months ago. But in Euros...? |
| The Journey, Part IV: Long-Term Transition Posted: 13 Jul 2012 08:13 AM PDT
In Part III, "Embracing Market Profile," Deep Alpha described her post-grain pits experience, which included a 'crash course in economics', a tightening of up trading mechanics, and the discovery of Market Profile. Now, in Part IV, we look at the details of handling a trade… Deep Alpha's early experience as a hedge fund manager… her move into family office management… the 2008 experience, long-term time horizons, and more. This interview series is part of the Mercenary Vault, an archive of exclusive high quality materials available to Mercenary Dispatch subscribers. The Dispatch is our means of direct communication (via email) with Mercenary community members — and it's free! Sign up here and don't miss out on future exclusives. And now to Part IV…
Note: This interview is part of a series. Also available:
Get your 14-day Free Trial to the Live Feed See our trading book in real-time. Trade setups, execution reports and real time market commentary. Claim your 14-day trial to the Mercenary Live Feed. JACK: When you add to a position, do you have any general rules about not letting it go past breakeven? DEEP ALPHA: I may take a small risk, but generally I'll take the original position and do breakeven on that. Then I'll take the new one and do breakeven on that also. JACK: Is that the same process with swing trades that are X days and so on? DEEP ALPHA: Yes, very similar. JACK: If you were going to add to a swing trade, what kind of time frame would you use to make your decision? Does Market Profile have, say, 60 minute and 30 minute windows like regular charts do, or…? DEEP ALPHA: Yes. It has everything — tick charts, all the minutes, daily, weekly, monthly etcetera. So as it's moving in the direction I anticipate, as the profile confirms it has run out of speed at this important level, and it continues to develop and accept this new value — say we're short for example — as long as that keeps happening, I will continue to add. JACK: Can you describe an example of a swing trade where you saw a great opportunity to add — either a trade that actually happened or an idealized example. DEEP ALPHA: Let's take bonds for example. This is a position I was looking to possibly hold for a long time. We had been in a bull market for so long and many technical indicators were showing the trend to be looking tired. JACK: What is your definition of a long-term position? DEEP ALPHA: Months and months. You have to look at everything in context. In this example I'm fading a trend that's been going on for a long time — for years. Interest rates have been going down, bonds going up. So I'm looking to initiate a short position in bonds, with the idea that this could turn into a very long-term trade. JACK: You are probing the market for what could be the entry point on a potentially huge position. DEEP ALPHA: Exactly. This is critical — to combine the possibility of a long-term trade, with the intention of making it a good swing trade. I think I'm at a good level now, where I got in, and this is when things get tricky. The market starts falling while you are short, and then it has one of those huge breaks. You're still in, and you're wondering "Should I take the profits, or should I get out of some… maybe it will bounce and give me a better entry…" I go through that just like any trader does. On this particular bond trade, I added to the initial position when it broke about 20 ticks… then managed the stops for both… JACK: So you're adding to the position at +20 ticks when you're hoping to build it into a position trade? Is that just really fine tuning your initial entry, or…? DEEP ALPHA: Yes. The other thing I should tell you is that I was stopped out six times in the previous two weeks trying to get short. I didn't risk much, because I know I'm probing what I think is the end of a trend. JACK: What is your typical planned risk in basis points for a trade like this? Like when you say you tried six times, are you risking half a percent per try? A quarter percent? DEEP ALPHA: Less than a quarter percent. Very, very small. JACK: So what happened with this trade? DEEP ALPHA: It had a fast and furious break until mid March. Negative fundamentals were getting loud ; China GDP numbers were slowing, the Eurozone disaster was unfolding, growth in the US was losing steam, and just general dreary news on the recovery front. So, I got out. JACK: Talk about how you came to be a hedge fund manager. DEEP ALPHA: A few individuals had given me money to trade the ES (mini S&P). They each gave me a million — which was too much really, I didn't need that much — but I managed that for them for about two years. I stopped when my parents became ill and I just needed some time off. I enjoyed it, though, and may look to do it again. I would probably structure it differently the second time around. I also think it's great what you guys are doing, in terms of helping people who want to manage money seriously. There are a lot of legalities and things that I don't feel I had enough comfort with. I didn't want to deal with all that, I just wanted to trade. JACK: In your experience, what were some of the ups and downs of being a hedge fund manager? I know you had some very interesting clients. DEEP ALPHA: I did. My clients were all heavy hitters in their own right. Fortunately they left me alone, most of the time, and once a month I would talk to each of them. Four out of the five always wanted me to increase the leverage, but I was comfortable with the returns and did not want to push it, at least not then. JACK: Pushing because they weren't satisfied with 280 percent returns? DEEP ALPHA: It was always, "If she can do this, why doesn't she do this?" Human beings always want to squeeze more. I educated them on what I was doing before I started trading the money. I did a skype session, and then decided to do a webinar with all of them, showing them what I do and how I do it, so that they would understand the logic. I told them my risk parameters, that I would never go beyond X, and so on. It was a great experience. I would like it to take it to a new level eventually.  JACK: Let's talk a little bit about the world of family office management, the institutional realm of investing. You've made these transitions — from grain trading, to swing and position trading, to financial markets and day trading, and then from hedge fund management to family office management. How did that come about? DEEP ALPHA: My husband had sold a business in 2000. His dream was to buy a big boat and sail, go to the Bahamas and just sail around the world. I didn't want to do it. But I did. I commited to one year to go to the Bahamas. I had sailed a lot with him — we used to sail up in Maine every summer — but I get antsy on a boat. It's a lot of time, and sailboats are slow. We ended up sailing to the Bahamas, and I still loved the markets so I had to stay in touch. The technology they have today, Wi-Fi, wasn't available back then. Nowadays it's really easy to trade from a boat — but back then it wasn't. So I would take the dinghy from this island where all these people lived in their boats — it's like a community, down at the end of the Exuma chain in the Bahamas — I would literally take my laptop, in the dinghy, trying to protect it from the saltwater… walk half a mile to the telecom building… wait for one of the two places where you could plug in… and then I would download all these articles and just go back to the boat and read them. That was my thing. And sometimes I would put positions on — stocks, not futures — and I mostly disengaged from the futures markets that winter, and was really missing it. When we came back, his family asked me to start managing their capital. Up to this point they had a lot of real estate, globally, but were missing out on other opportunities. I started attending family office conferences put on by Institutional Investor, and another group called Opal, just really getting into that whole world. I also started attending the endowment conferences, meeting the people who run money for the top universities like Yale and Harvard. Of course I was interested in their portfolio management and other issues they deal with. Attention Fund Managers! Break the Institutional Barrier - and Substantially Raise Assets Under Management! Our FREE 20-page report is designed to help you:
JACK: Did any events or time periods really stand out? DEEP ALPHA: Probably the most interesting time was a conference in June of 2008, in Boston. JACK: That was right before the financial hurricane. Two or three months before Lehman and everything. DEEP ALPHA: Yes and it felt like most people were still in denial of what could happen. It was already getting bad. Then we all met a year later – JACK: It must have been like a war zone, or a post-disaster cleanup. DEEP ALPHA: it was unbelievable. And of course with investors like Harvard, so much of that endowment money they use for the college – they were cutting back on all kinds of things. It was wild. What was truly interesting, though, was getting introduced to a lot of deals that I never would have heard about outside these circles. Emerging market infrastructure, things like that. JACK: Where $50 million is table stakes just to get a look at the term sheet. DEEP ALPHA: Exactly. Getting into portfolio allocation was also very educational. How capital is balanced and managed. There were many questions, such as how global do we want to go… how risky do we want to go… timing for certain moves, whether to be aggressive or wait another year… My thinking at the time was to be patient, to sit back and mostly stay in cash. JACK: What are some of your thoughts and mental adjustments around the subject of liquidity? What I mean is that, as traders we cut our teeth in extremely liquid assets. Paul Tudor Jones, who came up in the futures pits, talks about the beauty of being able to go to cash instantly. Whereas this world, the family office world, is so much about illiquid assets – private equity, infrastructure, deals and so forth – how did you make that mental transition? DEEP ALPHA: That was the biggest challenge for me, because I really am so used to saying "Okay let's liquidate." It was scary… to me this adjustment felt like a huge challenge to my relationship to time and risk. My initial reaction was "Really? It's tied up for HOW long?" JACK: Exactly – that's why I haven't even bought a house yet. I'm still a renter 100% by choice. My feeling is "My god, you want me to own this thing for 10 years?" And of course the opportunity hasn't been compelling. DEEP ALPHA: Right. In terms of the adjustment, I did it by stepping into things on a smaller scale, and working on ideas I believed in, like investing directly into gold mines… some infrastructure deals… but again, starting small. I got my feet wet first, to get comfortable with the whole process. I have more respect now for people with a long-term time horizon, but it still goes against my grain. To be continued… p.p.s. Break the Institutional Barrier - and Substantially Increase Assets Under Management! Access our FREE report to find out how... |
| The Next Major Move in Precious Metals Is Close Posted: 13 Jul 2012 07:44 AM PDT After making new highs about a year ago we have seen Silver and Gold consolidate for roughly the last twelve months. Technically, it would typically be a bullish scenario with gold from the stand point that the last 12 months' price action was a sideways consolidation in a bullish pennant formation. However over the last year we have witnessed a series of lower highs and increasingly tested supports levels around $150 on GLD which raises caution. Click Gold Chart for Full Size
With the fed pulling any extensions on further quantitative easing in the form of QE3 or other programs, the bullish case has lately been criticised. However I am still a firm believer that gold in most respects is a currency, and the only one that can maintain its value. There are very serious issues looming in Europe and across the world that are far from resolution. With few tools left in the toolbox to stimulate world economies, further easing can never be ruled out. Silver, after breaking through strong resistance around $19- $20 in September 2011 went almost parabolic in spring 2011 prior to giving up most of its gains in the last year. There seems to be significant support around $26 on SLV, however this level has been tested quite frequently over recent months and this again raises caution. While silver owes some of its moves to its industrial application, the high correlation between the two metals is not to be ignored. Click Silver Chart for Full Size
I think the long-term trade will be long in both metals, but I'm waiting to see a significant breakout out of these consolidations on heavy volume to confirm a direction. I would like to see both precious metals break out of their respective consolidations and ultimately have further confirmation in the USD. Any major headlines over the next couple months involving Europe or quantitative easing may provide us with the trigger for the next big move. Get My FREE gold cycles and trading analysis here: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen |
| Ronald Reagan’s Address to the Nation November 5, 1984 Posted: 13 Jul 2012 06:26 AM PDT Third in a series, Ronald Reagan's address to the nation on the eve of the 1984 election in November. Ronald Reagan, November 5, 1984.
"Our opponents have a very different vision for your future. Where we look at a problem and see opportunity, they look at opportunity and see a problem. We believe in knowing when opportunity knocks. They seem determined to knock opportunity." "We need your support for two long overdue reforms resisted by the House leadership: A Constitutional amendment to balance our budget and a line-item veto giving a president authority to veto individual pork barrel items within appropriations bills. Forty-three state governors have such authority. The president of the United States does not." "We can say to the world and pledge to our children, America's best days lie ahead, and you ain't seen nothin' yet." Source: Reagan Foundation via YouTube |
| Reading Market News as Good or Bad Posted: 13 Jul 2012 06:26 AM PDT Another wild ride for gold unfolded over the past two-and-a-half trading sessions as sellers and bargain hunters played tug-o-war with the market's price rope and sent the yellow metal over a relatively wide spectrum of quotes. |
| Precious Metals Higher but Keeping 'Bearish Bias' Posted: 13 Jul 2012 05:55 AM PDT U.S. dollar prices to buy gold rose to $1586 per ounce Friday morning in London, reversing losses from the previous two days but leaving gold more than 2% below its level of a month ago. |
| ‘Peak Gold' – South Africa Output Collapse Continues Posted: 13 Jul 2012 05:36 AM PDT After initial falls in Asia, gold traded sideways and then gradually ticked higher later in the Asian session and has seen further gains in European trading. Gold is currently set to finish the week marginally lower in dollar and sterling terms. |
| Despite Outlook, QE3 Uncertainty Range Bounds Bullion Posted: 13 Jul 2012 05:10 AM PDT US gold futures continued to weaken on Wednesday and Thursday, falling 0.9% to $1,565.3, and underperformed the broader markets. Next week, the events to watch include Bernanke's testimony to Congress and the E17 group meeting. |
| Greg Hunter: Middle East, LIBOR, $2,000 Gold & More Posted: 13 Jul 2012 03:34 AM PDT Last week, there was news the U.S. was sending more military assets to the Persian Gulf, and it looks like things are continuing to heat up in the Middle East. from usawatchdog: This week, the buildup continues with news the U.S. is sending underwater drones to combat possible Iranian mines and their drones. Meanwhile, in Syria, the Russians are reportedly sending a flotilla of 11 warships to the Syrian coast for maneuvers. NATO already has ships on the Syrian coast, and surveillance flights by the alliance are increasing in the region. This is not how you set the table for peace in the Middle East, even though the U.N. is attempting to put the East and West together to find a peaceful solution. The Libor rate rigging scandal appears to be the biggest financial fraud in history. Barclays bank paid a $450 million fine last week to regulators, but more than a dozen international banks, and even the U.S. and UK governments, are implicated. $800 trillion in commerce is based on this key rate. Avalanches of lawsuits are reportedly on the way. Another brokerage firm has gone bust (PFGBest), and around $200 million of customer money is missing. The FBI is investigating, but where is the FBI investigation into MF Global? It went bust on Halloween of last year! Former New Jersey Governor and Goldman Sachs CEO Jon Corzine ran the brokerage where $1.6 billion of customer money vanished. What gives? Another California city has filed for bankruptcy. San Bernardino is the third city in a month to do so in the Golden State. What did banking analyst Meredith Whitney say two years ago? There were 50 to 100 major municipal bond failures coming. It's looking more and more like she was early but on target. Many more cities are reportedly in financial trouble across the nation. The Federal Reserve is worried about the economy. That was the news that broke this week when minutes of the Fed's June meeting were released. Where's the recovery? Now, many analysts say if the Fed prints money to boost the economy, gold is heading higher. One analyst at Merrill Lynch says it should hit $2,000 an ounce sometime next year. Greg Hunter from USAWatchdog.com gives his analysis of these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up. ~TVR |
| Syyenergy7: Silver & Marilyn Monroe Coin Posted: 13 Jul 2012 03:22 AM PDT Comments on silver markets and what to expect in the future when the US debt is further downgraded. from syyenergy7: ~TVR |
| Silver Manipulation: Critically Thinking Posted: 13 Jul 2012 03:19 AM PDT Silver Manipulation is real! Follow the Puppet Strings from daytradeshow: ~TVR |
| Lawrence Williams: LIBOR Scandal Brings Gold Price Manipulation Once More to the Fore Posted: 13 Jul 2012 03:10 AM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverThe gold price came under pressure shortly after trading began in the Far East on their Thursday...and the price declined gently through most of the London trading day as well. The low tick of the day [$1,553.90] came about 10:10 a.m. Eastern time, which I would guess was the London p.m. gold fix. After that, gold rallied to its New York high of $1,577.90 spot about fifteen minutes before the close of the equity markets in New York at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. From there it got sold down about six bucks...and closed the N.Y. electronic trading session at $1,572.20 spot...down $4.40 on the day. Net volume was pretty decent at around 141,000 contracts...about 30% higher than Wednesday.
As is pretty much always the case, silver came under even heavier selling pressure than gold, right from the 6:00 p.m. New York open on Wednesday night. It was all down hill from there, with the low price tick of the day [$26.37 spot] coming around 8:45 a.m. Eastern...about twenty-five minutes after the Comex open. From there, silver had a decent rally until about one minutes before 11:00 a.m...and then really took off to the upside, with the high price tick of the day [$27.50 spot] coming at precisely 12 o'clock noon in New York. Silver then got sold off about two bits from that high...and then more or less traded sideways into the 5:15 p.m. Eastern time close. Silver finished the day at $27.21 spot...up the magnificent sum of 7 cents. Net volume was around 37,000 contacts...a third higher than on Wednesday.
The dollar index faded a hair from at the open in the Far East...and its low came about 2:00 p.m. in Hong Kong. From there it rallied sharply, with 99% of the rally complete by half past lunch time in London, which was 7:30 a.m. in New York. Then it slowly sold off into the close, giving up almost half its gains of the day...such as they were. The dollar index closed up about 15 basis points. I suppose one could say that the dollar index and the gold and silver prices traded in sync for part of the day...but that can only be said up until 7:30 a.m. in New York...which was the top of the dollar rally. After that, there were obviously other forces at work. Here's the 3-day chart.
The gold stocks sold off a bit over two percent, with the low coming around 10:45 a.m. Eastern...and from there it rallied in fits and starts...and the HUI actually made it back above the 400 level just as the gold price topped out at 3:45 p.m. But once it started to decline at the time, a lot of nervous day traders hit the 'sell' button going into the last fifteen minutes of the trading day...and the HUI finished down 0.57%. I thought this a rather impressive performance, all things considered. I thank Scott for the chart.
(Click on image to enlarge) The silver stock turned in a mixed performance yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 0.63%.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 7 gold and 39 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. The short/issuer in silver was ABN Amro, with all 39 contracts...and JPMorgan and the Bank of Nova Scotia were the long/stoppers on all but one of those contracts. There are still 1,711 silver contracts open in the July delivery month, which is now almost half over. Who is the big short/issuer, I wonder...and why are they being so shy this late in the delivery month? When will they deliver the physical metal...and to whom? Stay tuned. The link to yesterday's Issuers and Stoppers Report is here. The GLD ETF showed a smallish withdrawal of 48,509 troy ounces...and there were no reported changes in SLV. There was a small sales report from the U.S. Mint. They sold 5,000 ounces of gold eagles...and that was it. The Comex-approved depositories reporting receiving 596,154 ounces of silver on Wednesday...and shipped 632,028 troy ounces out the door. The link to the action is here. Here's a chart that Washington state reader S.A. sent me yesterday...and it requires no further explanation from me.
I have the usual number of stories for a weekday...and some of them are definitely worth your time but, as always, the final edit is up to you. To me, yesterday was just another day of engineered price rigging in the precious metal markets...hidden behind the skirts of a manufactured rally in the dollar index. Gold market manipulation issue seeping into polite company. Gold to Hit $2,000 by Year-End on More Fed Easing: Merrill. Sprott Sees Record Gold in 2012. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeU.S. probing failed broker PFGBest's use of small auditorU.S. futures industry investigators are looking into why Iowa-based collapsed brokerage PFGBest used a tiny accounting firm that appears to be operating from inside a suburban Chicago home to audit its books, according to a person familiar with the matter. Experts said the use of such an auditor should have been a red flag to regulators of a futures brokerage with more than $500 million in assets and several hundred employees across the United States as well as in Shanghai and Canada. There are comparisons with the way convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff used an auditor operating out of a strip mall in suburban New York and convicted swindler Allen Stanford's investment firm retained a little-known auditor on the Caribbean island of Antigua. This must read story was posted on the Reuters Internet site very early yesterday morning...and I thank reader 'David in California' for sending it our way. The link is here.  The Fed Manipulates Rates All the Time: James GrantThe Federal Reserve and other central banks manipulate interest rates every day, James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Thursday. "The Fed is in the business of trying to manipulate markets, the macro economy, interest rates, unemployment and inflation through various monetary means, including the twisting around of yield curves and interest rates," Grant said. Commenting on the growing London Interbank Offered Rate fixing scandal, Grant said "the idea that the banks are in charge of manipulating interest rates is absurd. The central banks do it all the time and they do it massively." The Libor scandal might get bigger, Grant conceded, but outrage should be directed at the world's central banks, he said. Mr. Grant certainly doesn't pull any punches...and I thank West Virginia reader Elliot Simon for bringing it to our attention. It's posted on the cnbc.com Internet site...and is a very short must read. The imbedded video clip runs for six and a half minutes. The link is here.  Geithner Tried to Curb Rate Rigging in 2008When Timothy F. Geithner ran the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, he acknowledged fundamental problems with the process for setting key interest rates in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, according to documents provided to The New York Times. Mr. Geithner, who is now the United States Treasury secretary, questioned the integrity of the benchmark as reports surfaced that Barclays and other big banks were misrepresenting the rates. In 2008, Barclays had several conversations with New York Fed officials about the matter. Mr. Geithner then reached out to top British authorities to discuss issues with the interest rate, which is set in London. In an e-mail to his counterparts, he outlined reforms to the system, suggesting that British authorities "strengthen governance and establish a credible reporting procedure" and "eliminate incentive to misreport," according to the documents. But the warnings came too late, and Barclays continued the illegal activity. This story was posted on The New York Times website late last night...and I thank Phil Barlett for his first story of the day. It's worth reading...and the link is here.  U.S. states look to enter Libor manipulation caseState attorneys general are jumping into the widening scandal over whether banks tried to manipulate benchmark international lending rates, a move that could open a new front against the top global banks. A handful of state attorneys general said they are looking into whether they have jurisdiction over the banks, and are starting preliminary discussions to determine what kind of impact the conduct involving the Libor rate may have had in their states. "Our office is aware of the allegations around the manipulation of the Libor, and we are working with other state agencies to determine whether Massachusetts has suffered any losses as a result," a spokesman for Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley said. This Reuters story was posted on their Internet site late on Wednesday evening...and I plucked it from yesterday's edition of the King Report. The link is here.  Market Savior? Stocks Might Be 50% Lower Without FedA report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that the bulk of equity returns for more than a decade are due to actions by the US central bank. Theoretically, the S&P 500 would be more than 50 percent lower—at the 600 level—if the bullish price action preceding Fed announcements was excluded, the study showed. Posted on the New York Fed's web site Wednesday, the study sought out to explain why equities receive such a high premium over less risky assets such as bonds. What they found was that the Federal Reserve has had an outsized impact on equities relative to other asset classes. I thank reader E.F. for bringing this second CNBC story from yesterday afternoon. It, too, is worth reading...and the link is here.  Regulators' Shake-Up Seen as Missed Bid to Police JPMorganAfter the financial crisis, regulators vowed to overhaul supervision of the nation's largest banks. As part of that effort, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in mid-2011 replaced virtually all of its roughly 40 examiners at JPMorgan Chase to bolster the team's expertise and prevent regulators from forming cozy ties with executives, according to several current and former government officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity. But those changes left the New York Fed's front-line examiners without deep knowledge of JPMorgan's operations for a brief yet critical time, said those people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because there is a federal investigation of the bank. This story was posted on the dealbook.nytimes.com website late on Wednesday evening...and I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending it. It's worth skimming...and the link is here.  Many Regulators Put Their Attention on How JPMorgan Marketed Its FundsRegulators are examining JPMorgan Chase's sales tactics, after claims that the nation's largest bank pushed its own mutual funds over competitors' investments. Authorities are responding to current and former JPMorgan financial advisers who said they had felt pressure to sell the bank's products even when cheaper or better performing options were available. Several brokers told The New York Times that they had been encouraged to favor JPMorgan funds, and they described a broader culture that emphasized sales over client needs. Also, in the marketing materials of one major offering, JPMorgan published hypothetical performance results, even though actual returns existed, according to internal bank documents reviewed by The Times. In each case, the actual gains were lower than the theoretical results. This is another story about JPMorgan that's also courtesy of Phil Barlett...and the link is here.  Fallout from JPMorgan loss may have just begun: AnalysisJamie Dimon will do his best to put the "London Whale" trading flap behind him on Friday when JPMorgan Chase & Co reports earnings, telling Wall Street that the bank has capped losses from the bad trades and found the key risk management flaw behind the positions.  |
| Gold market manipulation issue seeping into polite company Posted: 13 Jul 2012 03:10 AM PDT  I'm not going to steal Chris Powell's thunder on this one. This GATA release contains links to two different gold commentaries that are both must reads...as is his extensive preamble to both. The mineweb.com story [one of the two essays embedded in this GATA release] by Lawrence William entitled "LIBOR scandal brings gold price manipulation once more to the fore" should be framed for posterity. This 'double header' is posted over at the gata.org website, so top up your coffee and then click here. |
Today we serve up Part IV of "The Journey: From Floor Trader to Family Office Manager," in which Jack interviews Deep Alpha, a close friend and seasoned trader of 30+ years. (If you haven't read Part I, 
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