saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Gold & Equities Cycles Will Soon Forecast Prices
- Wait On Investing In Freeport-McMoran
- A Golden Opportunity To Buy Caterpillar At Cheap Valuations
- Gold And Silver - Daily Outlook July 12
- Lower Revenue Cannot Be Masked
- Gold rebounds with oil, crops; still near one-year low
- Aussie Dollar Rallies Overnight But What About Kiwi?
- Crucial Chart & What to Expect From US Dollar, Euro & Gold
- Silver Could Preserve More Value Than Gold
- Was Gold Manipulated Like Libor Rates?
- GOLD & SILVER MINERS PROFITS WILL BE SLASHED IN THE SECOND QUARTER 2012
- All Hell is Going to Break Loose on the Upside in Gold
- Gold purchases made easy
- Old gold often erroneously sold below market price
- Does Central-Bank Buying Signal the Top?
- The Seeds For An Even Bigger Crisis Have Been Sown
- Robust Asset Allocation with Gold
- Rick Rule – We Are Near An Epic Collapse in Confidence
- The price of gold has been manipulated. This is more scandalous than Libor
- Richard Russell – Gold, Stocks & Massive Fed Manipulation
- Rioting on the streets of Madrid and Athens/Gold and silver withstand another raid
- Euroland 2012-2016 (Part 1)
- Gold Price Slips on Fed “Disappointment” But $2000 Still “the Right Number” on Forecasts for Fresh QE
- S&P 500 Futures On Brink As Banks Lead Losses on Libor Probe
- Using Gold as Wealth Preservation, for Self Preservation
- Fallacies – 1. Paper Gold is just like Paper Anything
| Gold & Equities Cycles Will Soon Forecast Prices Posted: 12 Jul 2012 11:54 AM PDT Gold and stock market forecasters use cycles in price that repeat every certain amount of trading days to help them spot key reversal areas in the financial market. Almost everything in life seems to go in cycles and commodity prices and the stock market are no different. |
| Wait On Investing In Freeport-McMoran Posted: 12 Jul 2012 11:22 AM PDT By John Mylant: Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) has struggled because of copper and gold prices. With such a move down, an investor would wonder if it's a good time to own the stock. The possibility of a quick rally always exists with another stimulus looming but I am still bearish and would look at an income play but not a long term investment just yet. China Hurts the Stock It is kind of ironic that investors become scared half to death when China - the world's largest importer of copper, steel, gold, etc. - slows to 7.5% in growth. We are not even a third of that at our highest levels. But when we are used to more this is a global set back and it is something that could be particularly damaging for Freeport-McMoRan. China is its largest customer for copper. The heart of the threat is the sudden impact Complete Story » |
| A Golden Opportunity To Buy Caterpillar At Cheap Valuations Posted: 12 Jul 2012 11:19 AM PDT By Qineqt: Caterpillar (CAT) did not have a good start to the year, as their quarterly revenue fell by 8% from the previous quarter. One of the biggest players of the Resource and Construction Industry, the company is expected to face some headwinds as its end markets tumble in the face of the global economic meltdown, which has severely affected the demand of commodities, and the worldwide infrastructural development. YTD performance of -12% for such a giant proves that the world economy is slowing down. On July 10, Cummin Inc (CMI), one of the leading engine manufacturers, recently slashed its next quarter earnings forecast by 13%, predicting that the revenues are expected to be affected from the soft demand from emerging economies this year. This announcement brought a lot of industrial stocks down, including a 2% fall in CAT, which depended a lot on emerging economies to earn incremental revenues this year. Complete Story » |
| Gold And Silver - Daily Outlook July 12 Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:52 AM PDT By Lior Cohen: Gold declined again for the second consecutive day. Silver, on the other hand edged up. The recent minutes of the June FOMC meeting didn't provide any hints of possible implementations of QE program in the near future. Several FOMC members also voiced their concerns over the effects the stimulus plans will have on the long term inflation pressures. American Trade Balance was published yesterday and showed a mixed signal: there was a decline of $1.9 billion in the deficit during May compared to April; the deficit reached in May $48.7 billion; the decline was due to a rise in exports and a fall in imports. There are many items on today's agenda including: China Second Quarter GDP 2012, ECB Monthly Bulletin, U.S. Jobless Claims, Great Britain 10 Year Bond Auction, and ECB President Draghi will give a speech. Gold declined on Wednesday by 0.26% to $1,575.7. Silver rose by 0.52% Complete Story » |
| Lower Revenue Cannot Be Masked Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:44 AM PDT  By Thomas Kee: The prospects for excellent corporate growth deteriorate hand in hand with the US economy, and although executives can mask a one-off bad quarter (or two) with simple accounting tricks to improve earnings, one thing they cannot fudge is revenues. Fiscal Stimulus, although being openly discussed, is not being supported by the price of gold (GLD). Rate cuts are not cash infusions, and those take many months to work themselves through economies, but interest rates are already as low as they can go in the United states. Aside from printing new money, the Federal Reserve is out of bullets, and soon the printing presses will become inefficient as well. Even with heavy printing and stimulus amounting to $2.6 trillion, the US economy is still fragile and it cannot stand on its own two feet. That weakness will continue to show this earnings season as some of the biggest companies on Wall Complete Story » |
| Gold rebounds with oil, crops; still near one-year low Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:30 AM PDT from reuters.com: (Reuters) – Gold rose on Wednesday, rebounding from the previous day's 1.4 percent drop with lift from rising grains and energy prices, but the precious metal remained near its one-year low, and analysts said more losses could be in store. Soaring grain prices amid a severe drought in the U.S. Midwest and rising crude oil spurred inflation worries, which traditionally boost gold's appeal as a hedge. Trading was quiet ahead of the release of the minutes of U.S. Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting in June. The metal had dropped 3 percent in the last four sessions on signs of global economic slowdown and frustrations over a lack of more monetary easing by the U.S. central bank. Gold is just $40 above its one-year lows near $1,530-1,540 an ounce, and analysts said a failure to hold that support level could lead to a steep price correction. "The long-term, upward-sloping trend line in gold's favor is in jeopardy of being broken," said Dennis Gartman, a veteran trader and publisher of the daily Gartman Letter. "Indeed, it has made a progression of lower lows and a steady progression of lower highs, and gold's 200-day moving average is itself trending downward and has been since mid-May," Gartman said. Spot gold was up 0.5 percent on the day at $1,575.26 an ounce by 11:42 a.m. EDT (1542 GMT). U.S. COMEX August gold futures were down $4.30 at $1,575.50 an ounce, narrowing the difference between the futures price and spot gold. INVESTMENT, PHYSICAL DEMAND LAGS By Tuesday's close, holdings of gold in the world's largest exchange-traded products (ETPs) fell to the lowest level since mid-June, down nearly a quarter of a million ounces in two trading days, the largest two-day drop since May. Keep on reading @ reuters.com |
| Aussie Dollar Rallies Overnight But What About Kiwi? Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:24 AM PDT
from dailyreckoning.com: 07/11/12 St. Louis, Missouri – Good day. What a day yesterday! After hitting "Send" on the Pfennig, I began to do all that "stuff" I needed to get done so I could get out of here and to the hospital for my scans. The "system," you know that brand-spanking-new "system," doesn't let me in to it that early in the morning! So I was scrambling around all morning, all my plans up in smoke! But thanks to Keith Rigdon for getting that all fixed. I left you yesterday with the thought that the currencies and metals had found some terra firma. But as the morning went along, that terra firma proved to be false footing, and soon, the currencies were heading lower. At first, gold held its gains, but in the afternoon, another criminal takedown of gold occurred. OK, that's a pretty harsh word to describe the losses gold took, but to me, it is criminal, the way these takedowns happen. Demand is strong from everybody else — investors, hedge funds, central banks around the world — and then we have the short positions that the bullion banks have. That's all I can say about that, but I'm sure guys who really do the detective work on this stuff — like Ted Butler, Eric Sprott and the guys over at GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) — will probably have more for you to read on this. But that was yesterday, but today, life goes on. But the point I was getting to, before I went off on that tangent, was that gold was back on the rally tracks this morning, up $9. But it has a long way to go before gaining back the $25 takedown yesterday. Silver is also gaining this morning, so it would be nice to see these two metals hold on, and even add to these gains, today. Read more: Aussie Dollar Rallies Overnight But What About Kiwi? http://dailyreckoning.com/aussie-dollar-rallies-overnight-but-what-about-kiwi/#ixzz20QigNqjh Keep on reading @ dailyreckoning.com |
| Crucial Chart & What to Expect From US Dollar, Euro & Gold Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:19 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: On the heels of continued strength in the US dollar, many are wondering what to expect going forward in both the currency and gold markets. So today King World News interviewed highly acclaimed trader, Dan Norcini, to get his take on the situation. Norcini told KWN, "Technically, on the US dollar chart, there isn't much overhead resistance once the dollar clears 84." Norcini also noted, "… just as the grains have defied the macro-trend, gold may very well do the same thing." Norcini let KWN readers know exactly what to expect from gold, but first, here is what Norcini said about the strength in the US dollar: "The price charts are definitely friendly to the dollar. The US dollar hit a two year high yesterday. When you look at the dollar, particularly on a monthly basis, it's been in a very broad range going all the way back to the eruption of the credit crisis in the summer of 2008." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Silver Could Preserve More Value Than Gold Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:16 AM PDT
from hubertmoolman.wordpress.com: The fundamentals for silver and gold are very strong, and with all the massive bailouts, which are increasing debt levels, they are just getting stronger. Until a significant portion of these debts is repaid or defaulted on, it would be foolish to talk about a top in precious metals. The repayment of debt (or default on debt – which is more likely) will result in significantly reduced economic activity. Significantly reduced economic activity will have a negative effect on the stock market, which in this case, will likely result in a huge crash. It is these conditions (a deflating debt bubble) that will drive gold and silver prices significantly higher. Why? Because this will not just be a normal type of reduced economic activity, but one in which the monetary system as a whole is questioned or collapses (due to the excessive debt levels). In a crisis like this, it will be all about preserving value, which will make gold and silver the most wanted goods. The excessive debt levels we have currently, mostly represent artificial value, or value that will never be realised. We now have a great opportunity to convert that soon to be destroyed value into real value, by buying gold and silver, with fiat currency. In my opinion, silver bullion presents the better opportunity, when compared to gold. Silver bullion is still trading much lower than its 1980 high, and also at relatively historic lows against gold. Keep on reading @ hubertmoolman.wordpress.com |
| Was Gold Manipulated Like Libor Rates? Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:11 AM PDT
from finance.yahoo.com: Gold may have been manipulated like the London interbank rate or Libor over a long time frame, Ned Naylor-Leyland, investment director at Cheviot, told CNBC. The scandal surrounding the fixing of the Libor has opened markets up to "more scrutiny and more investigation," Naylor-Leyland said. He expects to see revelations over the next few months that the price of gold (Exchange:XAU=) was also manipulated because "gold and silver reflect the true value of money the same way interest rates do." [More from CNBC: Dollar Rally Could Accelerate, Charts Say] "It is effectively an intervention in two ways; one would be the fact that for central banks, gold and silver going up doesn't make their currency look any good, and secondly a number of the big commercial banks have very large short positions which they like to manage and make easy money from," he said. A formal investigation into the manipulation of silver has been going on for two years in the U.S. "Although there is a lot of evidence that it is taking place, nothing has come out of the investigation yet," Naylor-Leyland said. Chris Powell, Secretary and Treasurer of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee told CNBC in June that "as central banks are interested in supporting government bonds and the dollar and keeping interest rates low, they continue to manipulate the gold market". Keep on reading @ finance.yahoo.com |
| GOLD & SILVER MINERS PROFITS WILL BE SLASHED IN THE SECOND QUARTER 2012 Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:07 AM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: Second quarter profit margins for mining companies are going to be slashed due to elevated costs and declining prices paid for gold and silver. Endeavour Silver just came out with preliminary figures for Q2 2012. Here are there STATS: Endeavour Silver Production Highlights of Second Quarter 2012 (Compared to Second Quarter 2011) Silver production increased 22% to 1,040,026 oz Revenues jumped 11% to $40.4 million on 1,075,000 silver oz sold and 5,650 gold oz sold ———————————————————————— Endeavour Silver will have their complete financial results out by AUG 7th. However, we can see the damage already. Even though silver production increased 22% and gold 59%, Revenues only increased 11%. This was due to falling silver and gold prices. Endeavour Silver got 22% less for their silver in the second quarter. Second quarter profit margins are going to be slashed due to elevated costs and declining prices paid for gold and silver. It will be interesting to see what Endeavour Silver's Net Income will be. If they produced 22% more silver, that means a similar increase in cost per tonne. I would imagine costs will increase 20%+, while revenues only increase 11%. Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com |
| All Hell is Going to Break Loose on the Upside in Gold Posted: 12 Jul 2012 10:03 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: With the US dollar hitting fresh two year highs, stock markets struggling around the world, and gold holding firm, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman of Leeb Capital Management, to get his take on what is happening. Leeb told KWN there is a huge scandal because "…the banks don't have the gold the customers are paying them to have on deposit," and "all hell is going to break loose on the upside." Here is what Leeb had to say about the scandal: "Examples that people like Eric Sprott have given, where an individual depositing gold in 2009, when they asked to get their gold back there were long delays. And the gold bars they got back were certainly not the gold they deposited because they came back dated 2011. What's that all about?" Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:56 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: When buying gold, you need to make sure that you're getting a good deal. Are you paying a fair premium, based on gold's market price – or are you at risk of getting ripped off by unscrupulous dealers? Is your gold actual physical metal (either coins and bars in your possession or allocated bars in a vault) or "paper gold"? Do you have the option of taking physical delivery of bullion? All these questions and more are addressed in GoldMoney's new Ultimate Guide To Buying Gold. This 22-page pdf looks at all of the most popular ways that people own the yellow metal – be it in the form of coins, bars, ETFs, certificates, closed-end funds or GoldMoney-style bailment programmes. There's also commentary on mining shares and futures. Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| Old gold often erroneously sold below market price Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:45 AM PDT Lately financial media have been describing how resourceful gold buyers are taking advantage of many of their clients' lack of gold knowledge. In most cases, these clients are elderly and retired ... |
| Does Central-Bank Buying Signal the Top? Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:36 AM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: Doug Casey told me in January, "The only thing that scares me is that central banks are buying a lot of gold; they're historically contrary indicators." When it comes to buying gold, central banks have such a poor timing record that they're frequently joked about as a contrary indicator. We dislike referring to tonnes of gold instead of ounces. Gold is priced by the ounce. But certain market players, especially central banks, report gold transactions in tonnes. One metric ton (tonne) equals 32,150.7 troy ounces. Recently, they have been buying, quite literally, tonnes of it. Consider the following: Net central-bank purchases in 2011 exceeded 455 tonnes. This was only the second increase since 1988 (the first in 2010) and the largest since 1964. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| The Seeds For An Even Bigger Crisis Have Been Sown Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:31 AM PDT
from larsschall.com: On occasion of the publication of his new gold report, Ronald Stoeferle talked with financial journalist Lars Schall about fundamental gold topics such as: "financial repression"; market interventions; the oil-gold ratio; the renaissance of gold in finance; "Exeter's Pyramid"; and what the true "value" of gold could actually look like. By Lars Schall The following exclusive interview was conducted for Matterhorn Asset MGMT / GoldSwitzerland in Zurich, Switzerland, and it's posted here: http://goldswitzerland.com/the-seeds-for-an-even-bigger-crisis-have-been-sown/. The report written by Ronald Stoeferle is available here: http://www.erstegroup.com/en/Downloads/0901481b800bb26c.pdf. Ronald Stoeferle, who is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and a Certified Financial Technician (CFTe), was born October 27, 1980 in Vienna, Austria. During his studies in business administration and finance at the Vienna University of Economics and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign in the USA, he worked for Raiffeisen Zentralbank (RZB) in the field of Fixed Income / Credit Investments. After graduating, Stoeferle joined Vienna based Erste Group Bank (http://www.erstegroup.com), covering International Equities, especially Asia. In 2006 he began writing reports on gold. His five benchmark reports on gold such as "A Shiny Outlook" and "In Gold We Trust" drew international coverage on CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. Since 2009 he also writes reports on crude oil. The latest gold report by Stoeferle was published today. MATTERHORN INTERVIEW JULY 2012 – Ronald Stoeferle The Seeds For An Even Bigger Crisis Have Been Sown Lars Schall: What is "financial repression" according to Ronald Stoeferle? Ronald Stoeferle: Financial repression is a perfidious form of redistribution. It always means a combination of incentives and restrictions for banks and insurance companies, which cause the investment universe to be substantially reduced for investors. This means that capital is channelled away from the asset classes that it would flow into in a more liberal environment. Keep on reading @ larsschall.com |
| Robust Asset Allocation with Gold Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:27 AM PDT
from goldnews.bullionvault.com: Gold Investing is for the loons, writes Adrian Ash at BullionVault – the kooks and monetary nuts, apparently – those doomsdayers who, bothering to read history, think printing money risks massive inflation, and who also fear banking default too much to hazard every last penny of their savings on a deposit account. As we've learnt since the record peaks of summer 2011, gold does much more than go up in a straight line. But that's why it's also for other folk too – better-paid, less wild-eyed folk like professional investors. Or at least it would be. If only they studied the data, like the doomsdayers read history, when they decide their asset allocation. "Asset allocators at major retail [investment] firms have their equity weighting the lowest in over 15 years," reckons David Lutz at Stifel Nicolaus, which itself runs some $126 billion in assets – "well below 2009 levels." It's the same story in Europe, and in the City of London it's samer still. "UK pension funds have less invested in equities than at any time since the 1974 stock market crash," reports the Financial Times, citing Swiss bank UBS's Pension Fund Indicators 2012 report and pointing to the average fund's 43% investment in listed shares, down fully 7 percentage points last year from 2010. So where are pension-fund and wealth managers putting your money instead? Not into Gold Investing, that's for sure. Overall, institutional asset allocations to gold remain at perhaps 0.3% in the rich West. Yet two-fifths of international wealth managers were out-of-step with their model allocations at the end of 2011, according to Scorpio Partnership's latest private-client portfolio survey. But instead of shifting that money from stock-market fixed-income bonds into, say, physical gold, they've been growing their cash positions. Keep on reading @ goldnews.bullionvault.com |
| Rick Rule – We Are Near An Epic Collapse in Confidence Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:23 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: With global stocks struggling, the US dollar very close to a breakout, and gold ignoring US dollar strength by trading higher, today King World News interviewed one of the wealthiest and most street-smart pros in the business, Rick Rule. Rule warned, "…for those who are looking for signs of a collapse in confidence, if past is prologue, you should examine our experience in 2008 and begin to look for immediate signs of structural stress." Rule, who is now part of Sprott Asset Management, also issued the following warning: "The world has been trying to solve a solvency problem with liquidity. Obviously the problem becomes, at some point in time, the issuers, be it the US government or the ECB or whoever the issuer is, runs into a problem where they can't sell more paper. There is nobody to fund it." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| The price of gold has been manipulated. This is more scandalous than Libor Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:15 AM PDT
from blogs.telegraph.co.uk: The new media and the 24-hour news cycle have a great deal to answer for, not least encouraging a political class which would otherwise be happily engaged expensing duck houses into the belief that it should demonstrate perpetual action on our behalf – hence the endless stream of badly drafted legislation from the corridors of Whitehall. It does, however, reveal things that would otherwise be ignored. The issue of manipulation in the gold market which I wrote about last week is a case in point. The ball of half-truths and downright lies which have surrounded the issue for a long time is beginning to unspool in an issue internet activists kept alive long before it was acknowledged by the mainstream media. People ask why the issue is important at a time of naked market manipulation of the Libor rate. The answer is simple: the Libor manipulation scandal can be seen as the thin end of the wedge in terms of government market manipulation. Although Libor manipulation affects the interest rates we pay on all number of credit products, gold market manipulation is more serious still. The price of gold is traditionally a proxy for the value of money. A soaring bullion price is indicative of a lack of faith in fiat currency. Keep on reading @ blogs.telegraph.co.uk |
| Richard Russell – Gold, Stocks & Massive Fed Manipulation Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:08 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: With continued uncertainty in global markets, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, wrote, "…we see the stock market up on Fed-created stilts … I'm stating that deflationary and deleveraging forces are still in command, and all the Fed's manipulations are, and will, fail to turn the bear market into a new bull market." Russell also pondered, "Yes, we had the usual late-session rally … Is the Fed buying the Dow at the close? It wouldn't surprise me." But first, this is what Russell had to say about gold: "Most of my subscribers are interested in gold. All I'm going to say about gold is wrapped up in the chart below. Here we see gold in a large rectangle formation. The 1550 level has been tested numerous times and it has shown to be solid support." Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| Rioting on the streets of Madrid and Athens/Gold and silver withstand another raid Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:07 AM PDT
from harveyorgan.blogspot.ca: Gold closed down today by only $4.10 top $1575.20 as gold recovered much of its losses suffered in the access market. Silver rose by 10 cents to $26.95. Today we witnessed rioting on the streets of Madrid and Athens. Madrid introduced huge tax increases as they raised their VAT from 18% to 21% and cut off many of unemployment benefits. On this side of the pond, JPMorgan is set to release the news that they lost 5 billion dollars on that IG9 trade. The 10 yr USA bond fell in yield to 1.459% in an auction Generally this ushers in a danger period. The Fed released its FOMC meeting results of 2 weeks ago and still no indication of QEIII. The markets took that negatively as the Dow faltered but another Hail Mary caused the Dow to recover with a loss of only 48 points. We will go over many of these events but first, let us now head over to the comex and assess trading today. The total gold open interest fell by 1706 contracts as the banking cartel orchstrated their raid yesterday. The new OI for the gold complex rests tonight at 429,854 falling from 431,560 on Tuesday. The non official delivery month of July saw its OI rise from 19 to 21. Since we had no delivery notices filed yesterday, we gained 2 contracts or 200 oz of gold standing. The next big delivery month is August and here the OI fell by a huge 9916 contracts, from 202,235 from 192,161. It was in the month of August that the bankers did the most damage to our longs. The estimated volume today was a very small 135,309. The confirmed volume yesterday with the raid in full force came in at 177,505. The total silver OI again does the opposite to gold. The new OI rests tonight at 124,109 compared to yesterday's level of 123,097, thus a rise of 1012 contracts. It seems that the raid had no effect here as no silver leaves fell from the tree. Keep on reading @ harveyorgan.blogspot.ca |
| Posted: 12 Jul 2012 09:02 AM PDT - Excerpt GEAB N°62 (February 16, 2012) - Euroland 2012-2016: Stabilization of a new global power on condition of democratization  As previously announced, LEAP/E2020 is presenting its anticipations for Europe over the 2012-2016 period in this issue. In the context of a global systemic crisis, two strategic trends will mark these five years for Europeans: on the one hand the stabilization of Euroland as a new full global power (1); and, on the other, the absolute requirement for the European elite to raise the democratic freeze which now weighs heavily on the process of European integration. In this issue our team analyzes why, starting from the second half of 2012, conditions will be at their best for Euroland to take on these two trends fully (2). Of course, numerous economic, financial, strategic and political challenges remain for Europeans; but, with the global systemic crisis entering its phase of reconstituting world geopolitical balances, with Euroland, they have a "new sovereign" able to positively influence the course of events (3). Of course, this capacity is conditional upon the democratic legitimization of the whole of Euroland governance. From 2012 to 2016, three major sequences will characterize Euroland's stabilization as a full sovereign and the lifting of the democratic freeze. Before going into the European case in detail, our team would like to remind readers that the big difference today between the anticipation of the United States' development and Europe's is due to the fact that the United States has a completely paralysed antiquated politico-institutional system, whereas European integration has a strong dynamic associated with great institutional flexibility. The absence of major reform in the United States since the beginning of the crisis in 2008 compared with the impressive series of European institutional leaps and bounds since mid-2010 (developments considered impossible by many just two years ago) offers a striking illustration. In the American case, the question of anticipation of events thus forces to be able to identify the points of rupture of a sclerotic system. In the European case, it's a question on the other hand of targeting the course of events and evaluating their pace of development (4). Which is much simpler in fact when, like LEAP/E2020, one has a good understanding of how Europe functions institutionally, and has a good sense for public opinion in the various Member States (5). The last point of this preamble, the European decision-making process will considerably improve for Euroland since, from now on, only the countries using the Euro will take the decisions. Moreover, it's a feature of these years of crisis to have finally clarified an absurd situation which saw countries outside the Eurozone, even anti-Euro (like the United Kingdom), take part in decisions on the Euro. But nevertheless, the very nature of the European decision-making process, implying negotiations and compromises, will continue to show it as being chaotic and slow, as opposed to national decision making. It will be much less than before, but still there all the same because it's the very characteristic of the functioning of European integration; ultimately it is also one of its conditions of effectiveness, in order that each State really applies what has been decided. Now, let's move on to the analysis of the three major sequences which will characterise the 2012-2016 period. These three sequences have been presented out of sequence to make them clearer; but it's obvious of course that they all overlap. 1st Sequence - 2012-2013: End of Euroland's consolidation of its budget-finance operations / Launching of the first pro-active common socio-economic policies / Acceleration of the distinction between Euroland-EU By mid-2012, as we have already indicated in preceding GEAB issues, Euroland will be endowed with a whole set of new national leaders (Spain, Italy, Greece, France, Slovenia, Belgium,…) and the following months there will be elections in Germany. Euroland will thus be led by men and women who, for the most part, came to power after the start of the crisis. Until the end of 2011 it wasn't the case; quite the contrary, most Eurozone leaders were electoral products of the world before the crisis. The fact that these leaders, mediocre politicians in the main, and completely unprepared for the collapse of the values/beliefs which they held until 2008, were nevertheless able to face relatively well the global crisis, then the Greek crisis and its effects, against the background of a violent attack on the European single currency by City of London and Wall Street, was proof of the dynamics of European integration at work within Euroland. In fact, our team considers that they were the generation of politicians the least prepared to "save European integration" since they were generally not very interested in Europe and often under the control of the banks and Washington. To pick up from an analysis of Franck Biancheri's going back to 1989, "the babyboomer politicians are likely to break the European project of which they understand nothing, prior to the "Erasmus" generations entering the fray". It will never be known what would have happened if the global systemic crisis had exploded five years later, but what is certain is that they will have managed to avoid "breaking Europe". Even Nicolas Sarkozy, who we consider has been the worst French president of the Fifth Republic for France and Europe, as our readers know, deserves credit on this subject for having had the savvy to push ahead on the need for summits for Euroland leaders only. What this episode teaches us is that if even unprepared and unreliable leaders knew how to find the answers allowing the building of the bases for Euroland in the middle of an historical crisis, it's reasonable to believe that more inspired and better prepared leaders (at least due to the fact that they will have lived through this crisis before coming to power) will be able to fare at least as well, if not better (6). This analysis is reinforced by another determining factor of the European decision-making process: in the absence of the system's democratization, the technocrats are the real masters of the game on the EU circuit including Frankfurt, Brussels,… and national capitals (7). They, since the creation of ECSC in 1951, wove the fabric of European integration. They, who offered our disorientated leaders the solutions of these last two years. They, who are already preparing the initiatives for the next few years. But to be able to take the leap of European integration, they need the politicians. And the politicians are only ready to take risks in two cases: when they are afraid and when they are visionaries (8). Fear was the incentive in 2010/2011. The vision of the future will be that in 2012/2016. Two elements determine this swing from reaction to project, because it's indeed that: fear involves only reactions; the vision of the future is typified by projects. On one side, after the "bolt tightening" episode, quite rightly demanded by the countries in surplus (Germany, Netherlands, Finland,…) (9), we saw the idea developing everywhere amongst the Euroland elite that it was also necessary to project oneself positively in the future (recovery, common investments, Eurobonds,…). Transition by the austerity phase was inevitable, as we had anticipated since 2008/2009, because Euroland integration requires common rules, actually applied, and to stop the policies of collective over-indebtedness promoted these last decades by the bankers and the financial centres of the City and Wall Street. Greece is a textbook case. We comment further in our recommendations in this issue but we are very clear in this issue: to overcome the Greek problem, it's necessary to break the parasitic ruling class which led this country to ruin. However, Euroland hasn't really the means to do it to date, apart from really showing the Greeks that nobody trusts their leaders any more. It's also dissuasive as regards other countries' leaders, trying to keep power by debt. Thus 2012 and 2013 will see the finalization of the new rules for common budget, tax and economic governance in Euroland. Common budgets control, progress towards fiscal harmonization (10), repatriation of the Euro financial markets to Euroland (11), reinforced financial regulation, a European credit rating agency, a financial transactions tax, Eurobonds, introduction of a maximum limit of exposure of government debt to non-Euroland financial markets,… For the teams coming to power in Euroland, these developments are obvious; whereas they were revolutionary for their predecessors. But, on these bases, the two years to come will also see the launching of several major common initiatives intended to build the future: a common program of public investment (common infrastructures in the fields of transport, education (12), training, health, science and technology,…). Their financing will start one of the big debates of these next two years because it will be impossible, according to our team, to avoid recourse to direct borrowing from citizens, thus short-circuiting the banks and financing on the financial markets. For an amount equivalent to that of the MES, 500 billion Euros, half will cut government debt dependence on the international financial markets (via Eurobonds) and half will finance major future projects. If the MES is an embryo of European Monetary Fund, this major loan will be the bedrock of a European Treasury. And it will belong to the panoply of trans-European social solidarity tools which will emerge by 2014, for gradually replacing the numerous traditional EU structural funds (13). Moreover, from the second half of 2012, Euroland will see the French's constructive return to the European project. It's a reality forgotten by many since it's been 17 years since it disappeared from the European decision-making process. Whether it be Jacques Chirac or Nicolas Sarkozy, none of the French presidents since 1995 had a European streak (unlike their predecessors - De Gaulle, Giscard and Mitterrand). Jacques Chirac at least had the Gaullist backbone of the refusal to be subservient, which enabled him to resist the general recruitment for the invasion of Iraq, in partnership with the German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russian president Vladimir Putin. Nicolas Sarkozy himself hasn't had any backbone, national or European. He will have done nothing, only cross the political landscape (14) driven by interests foreign to the common good of the French and Europeans. These declining or anecdotal trends have, of course, been reinforced by the Anglo-Saxon domination of the European agenda, pushing expansion and the European Market to the detriment of integration and European power. In the end, that's 17 years that France has ceased making its intellectual contribution to the advance of European integration (15). This "French absence" at European level was only the reflection of a growing disconnect between Parisian power and the true country (16); a situation which, according to LEAP/E2020, is approaching its denouement with the overwhelming rejection of the current president by the French. Without too much of a wait, the next election of François Hollande at France's helm will allow the bond between the true country (17) and French leaders to be rebuilt, at least for a year or two; sufficient time to revitalize the French contribution at European level. The socialist candidate's personality also works in favour of this development. He's a politician for whom Europe is a key component of his commitment, along Mitterrand-Delors lines; and he has the right profile for future Euroland leaders over this 2012-2016 period: they will have to be good team players because managing Euroland will be a team business and not one for individuals. These five years will more resemble an in-house stowing of a space station's various pieces of equipment than a cavalry charge. Each epoch needs a certain kind of leader: the Euroland of the next few years needs European team members, reliable and inventive, knowing where they want to go and aware that they can't get there on their own. Beyond any partisan considerations, in his course and the conduct of his campaign, our team thinks that François Hollande has shown that he has these qualities (18). In this context, he has to urgently reposition his campaign speeches on the renegotiation of the current European treaty into promising to negotiate additions to it. It's necessary to reassure the German and Dutch partners in particular; and it's useful for Angela Merkel to avoid making the major strategic error of entering the campaign at Nicolas Sarkozy's side (19). For, on the one hand, this does nothing to avoid the defeat of the latter (and even the opposite); and, on the other, that will make the first months of Franco-German co-operation after the 6th May 2012 more difficult, even if it's urgent to open the driving core of Euroland to other countries (Netherlands, Spain, Italy,…). At the same time these two years will see the acceleration of the difference between Euroland and the EU. It is a phenomenon which will in fact characterize the whole of the decade. Euroland which functions to a large extent in the form of informal networks will gradually have to equip itself with some institutional bases. They will be modest because nobody wants a repeat of the bureaucracy which definitively ossified Brussels; but modelled on the ECB, the MES, a secretariat of Euroland governance will prove to be necessary very quickly, then certain specific institutions as well as a specific Euroland component within the European Parliament (meetings reserved for the European representatives of the Euroland countries to discuss specific Euroland questions, modelled on the Euroland summits). This development will be all the more strong and rapid that the United Kingdom will try to slow down or block Euroland actions. There was such an example of the counter-productive effect of the British veto last December; it quite simply obliged the others to move on without London. In general, Eurolanders will seek to use the existing EU institutions but distancing non-Eurolanders from the decision-making processes. Each time it's impossible or too complicated, a new institutional base will be created. This development will be all the easier as all the EU countries, except for the United Kingdom, have a rationale for adhesion to the Euro in fact (20). Most EU countries know that they will be in Euroland by 2017; which greatly facilitates Euroland progress for the years to come. Thus, after about fifteen years of mistakes under British and US influence, during which Europeans were misled on enlargement projects without a future (Turkey, Ukraine,…) (21) and illusory economic-financial strategies (Lisbon treaty strategy,…), the next few years will bear the mark of the return to political and economic integration, as was the case at the time of the first EU renaissance in 1984-1992. According To LEAP/E2020, 2012/2013 will thus mark the beginning of the second EU renaissance. ---------- Notes: (1) That's to say being able to call up all a "sovereign's" attributes: currency, budget, economy, international policy and defence. (2) By the way, we point out that LEAP/E2020's anticipations since 2006 /2007 on Euroland's emergence due to the global systemic crisis proved to be right; just like our warnings against the forecasts of those who saw, still only a few months ago, the Eurozone breaking up and the Euro disappearing. Remember that on this subject our anticipations have always been founded on rational and objective analyses, respecting the principles of political anticipation methodology, whatever the personal opinions of our team members. It's that, and only that, which has enabled us, since 2006, to calmly face the dominant thinking or the periods of mass hysteria which always feels outraged by refusals to think like everyone else. In a crisis period, lucidity is essential to try to understand events and their consequences. Yet lucidity is incompatible with "ready to think", whether dictated by power or fear. By way of an anecdote, CNBC headline on 15/2/2012 on a better Euroland economic performance than forecast by the Anglo-Saxon "experts" was very revealing: "Euroland GNP better than hoped for. What does that mean?". On the one hand, one can legitimately wonder whether the first part of the title shouldn't have said " Euroland GNP "not as bad as hoped" to reflect these "experts'" real state of mind ? And, on the other hand, the question in the second part of the headline sounds like a kind of confession: "and if one had taken our desires for realities?". (3) This trend is reinforced by the massive arrival during this decade of the generations born after the signature of the Treaty of Rome, the first generations for which Europe is a natural socio-political area… unlike the babyboomer generation, privileged pool of the Eurosceptics. (4) Of which the Anglo-Saxon media which nourish the world media goldfish bowl are incapable, in particular because they generally look through the British prism which is ideologically unable to understand the continental process of European integration as other than a threat to avert or scorn. Two attitudes which aren't very favourable for generating lucidity over events. (5) For information, nearly a year before the French and Dutch referenda on the European Constitution, in the context of the splitting of responsibilities between national and European institutions, we anticipated that the "No" votes would carry the day in the two countries (when all the surveys gave victory to the "Yes" votes). (6) In previous GEAB issues we have already evoked the comparison with the Euro-missile crisis, which in less than three years led the European Community, after a change of leaders, from an existential crisis to the first renaissance of the Community project (1984-1992). (7) It is so true that they are able to replace failing politicians in government posts like Mario Monti in Italy or Lucas Papademos in Greece… and with an unquestionable success for the moment in the case of Mario Monti. This situation thus leads citizens to cast a very critical eye over their national political classes, pushing them to reform themselves in the next few years. Source: Independent, 15/02/2012 (8) The two cases are exclusive since a visionary politician has little chance of letting himself be trapped in a frightening situation; whereas the frightened politician is the one who has exactly no idea how to get out of a trap. (9) Countries which Nicolas Sarkozy's France clung to, so as not to appear as belonging to the other camp (10) Once the Greek situation has been stabilized, Ireland and its tax dumping will be the centre of Euroland's attention. (11) The City has led a two year "blitzkrieg" in vain to try and break the Eurozone. From now on Euroland will increase the pressure each year to reduce the already declining power of the City. And David Cameron, like the British Eurosceptics financed by the hedge funds, won't be able to do much by the way, whatever they think only 34 kilometres separate Dover from Calais. (12) In particular, a vast programme, successor to Erasmus, simultaneously training the European elite, of a sufficient number and quality; and to offer the European dimension to hundreds of thousands of young people each year, is a very practical form of democratizing access to Europe. (13) A few years ago our team ironically explained to the high level officials in Brussels that if they didn't set up trans-Euroland solidarity policies to face asymmetrical shocks, then it would be necessary for them to invest heavily in European riot police to control citizens' anger. (14) We remind that we have been anticipating since November 2010, in GEAB N°49, that Nicolas Sarkozy wouldn't be reelected in 2012. (15) The episodes of the poor European constitution project and the adoption of the Treaty of Lisbon without a referendum are two other illustrations. (16) A president re-elected by default in 2002 when Jacques Chirac faced with Jean-Marie le Pen; and deception over the "goods", identified too late after his election, with Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007. (17) One of the axes of his policy exactly aims at decentralizing, "de-parisianising" French power. Source: Débats 2012, 27/01/2012 (18) He will have five years to prove that he can be François EurHollande. (19) An error largely interpreted as such in Germany. (20) Including Denmark which is waiting for the right moment for a referendum on the subject (source: Euronews, 23/01/2012). The Czech case is very simple: with Vaclav Klaus no longer president, the Czech Republic will join the remainder of the European countries to prepare for Euro entry. It will be a phenomenon similar to the 2007 replacement of the Polish Kaczynski twins, pro-American and anti-European, by current the Prime Minister Donald Tusk, leading to a 180° turn in European policy. A final remark on the Klaus case: his party like his re-election to the presidency in 2008, via the vote of members of the Czech parliament, faced multiple accusations of corruption. Its "representativeness" of Czech public opinion is measured with these kind of "details". In 2013, the president will finally be elected by universal suffrage. Source: Rue89, 09/02/2011 (21) This drift of the original European project prevented citizens from concentrating on the question of the governance/democratization tandem since Europe was always a movable feast. Thus, even at young generation level, the official promotion of this Europe without borders prevented the emergence of new initiatives to try and influence their future. Our team can note that currently, and at very high speed, this situation is changing radically. |
| Posted: 12 Jul 2012 08:59 AM PDT
from goldnews.bullionvault.com: The Gold Price continued to weaken Thursday morning in London, dropping to new 2-week lows beneath $1565 per ounce on what analysts called "disappointment" with the latest monetary policy minutes from the US Federal Reserve. Asian and European stock markets fell hard, while wheat and corn prices again bucked a further drop in the commodities market. Following the US Fed minutes – which showed only a "few" policy-makers wanting to expand the central bank's quantitative easing money creation scheme – the Euro currency today dropped to its lowest level since June 2010 below $1.21. Silver Bullion also gave back the last of July's rally to date, trading back below $27.75 per ounce. "We are still confident that the current slide in the price of gold is nothing more than a temporary weakness," writes Commerzbank's head of commodity research Eugen Weinberg in Frankfurt today. "The high levels of uncertainty resulting from the ongoing sovereign-debt crisis in the Eurozone clearly suggest a much higher Gold Price." "We think that $2000 an ounce is sort of the right number," said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's head of global commodity and multi-asset strategy research Francisco Blanch to CNBC on Wednesday, forecasting a further $500 billion of US quantitative easing by year-end. "We believe that ultimately the Fed will be forced to do quantitative easing. If it happens in September, as our economists expect, we will get a rally sooner in gold. "Probably we will touch $2000 an ounce sometime next year." Longer-term, however, other analysis from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch now recommends selling gold, not buying it, as "a secular contrarian" strategy. "[You] should be buying equities, European assets, Japan and financial & telecom stocks and selling gold, bonds, emerging markets and resources and consumer staples stocks," says June's Longest Pictures report from Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist. Keep on reading @ goldnews.bullionvault.com |
| S&P 500 Futures On Brink As Banks Lead Losses on Libor Probe Posted: 12 Jul 2012 08:54 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: The selling started as Europe opened last night and despite a few pull-backs to VWAP, has continued all morning. S&P 500 futures have crossed the chasm and are heading back to new cycle lows here as the major financials are being sold aggressively on the back of tomorrow's release of the NY Fed's Libor report (among other things we are sure) and have given up all their post EU-Summit gains. USD strength, commodity weakness (with Silver And Gold leading the charge lower this week now) and Treasury yields back to yesterday's post-auction spike lows. VIX up to 19.5% and correlation rising very systemically. S&P 500 futures broke initial support and are teetering on the brink here… Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Using Gold as Wealth Preservation, for Self Preservation Posted: 12 Jul 2012 08:49 AM PDT
from dailyreckoning.com.au: How do you go about preserving your wealth in the the crazy economic environment that we find ourselves in today? A few weeks ago we quoted from Richard Duncan's latest book, The New Depression: 'The hard truth is that it is not easy to preserve wealth. If it were, the families who were wealthy 200 years ago would still be wealthy today – and generally, they are not. In the very harsh economic environment that is likely to prevail over the next ten years, it is likely that a great deal of wealth is going to be destroyed.' Our advice at the time was to buy gold. In response, we received this thoughtful response from reader NM (edited for brevity). 'You are very keen to persuade yourself and others that gold will preserve wealth. You take this (the above) statement to be true. I can think of plenty of wealth in the UK and Europe that goes back 200+ years and it tends to be based on land holdings, private companies, stockmarket equity, artworks and collectibles rather than gold, although gold would be part of the mix. 'Encouraging everyone to go into gold is the epitome of the "I'm alright Jack, bugger everyone else" smart Alec selfish mentality that so bedevils western societies. You spent many paragraphs this year berating the zombies in public service and government. I have no objection to that but you are coming exceptionally close to that mentality of "we know best" – that it is a simple matter of pressing that button and pulling this lever. That there is a logical answer to the pickle we are in and that there is a group of people out there on whom we can land all the blame. 'No one had to buy all those over priced houses with a miniscule deposit or "invest" in dotcom equities. No one had to vote in the Labour party on the basis of completely throwing out Work Choices legislation when a few amendments would have been sufficient to improve what was clearly putting more people to work. No one has to go on strike yet industrial action is on the rise. Keep on reading @ dailyreckoning.com.au |
| Fallacies – 1. Paper Gold is just like Paper Anything Posted: 12 Jul 2012 07:25 AM PDT |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment