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- Gold Looks Terrible Part III: The Mass Capitulation Thesis
- 5 Bullish Charts For U.S. Stocks
- Most Accurate Stock Market Predictions – Next Major Move
- Silver: Up 425% or Down 14.5%
- Charts: Silver, Gold, Dollar Index, Dow Jones 7.8.12
- Silver: The First Televised Market in History
- Johnson & Johnson: Dogged By Uncertainty
- Money Masters revisited
- 4 Undervalued Stocks With Yields Up To 11%
- Real Unemployment Rate At 9.8%: Avoid Risky Asset Classes
- After Gleevec: In Search Of The Next Wonder Drug
- 3 Small Cap Dividend Stocks Trading Below Value Despite Analyst Backing
- Hinde Capitals Ben Davies calculates a gold price by money supply and credit creation
- Silver Update: Economic Flatline – 7.7.12
- The Golden Rule: James Grant explains why gold standard is the future
- Eurozone Banking Union: Who Pays for Past Mistakes?
- Gerald Celente – The Biggest Story of the 21st Century
- In Classic Cartel Form, Gold & Silver Pop, Then Raided Post NFP Report
- The Gold Silver Ratio As An Early Warning Indicator
- Jim Sinclair – The War Between Manipulation and Buying
- Weak Jobs May Mean More Printing and Higher Precious Metals Prices
- Roubini Warns a Crisis in 2013 Would Be Worse Than 2008
- Roger Wiegand on Markets
- SyyEnergy7: Silver & War
- Blazer Metals Report: Silver Premiums
- Jeff Nielson: Treasury Bond Market Fraud
| Gold Looks Terrible Part III: The Mass Capitulation Thesis Posted: 08 Jul 2012 11:41 AM PDT By Mercenary Trader: By Jack Sparrow Some quick thoughts on gold as we finish up a light holiday week of trading… We have repeatedly emphasized, in past months, that gold looks terrible. We grew constructive again - briefly, when gold responded well to the previous jobs report, as documented in the following posts:
While gold and gold stocks were looking attractive circa early June - after the June jobs report surge - we never found a workable entry point to establish long positions. The metal was simply not "acting right." So we stayed on the sidelines. And now, with another jobs report on the books, gold looks terrible again. The "inflection point" was totally blown. The performance of gold, silver, and precious Complete Story » |
| 5 Bullish Charts For U.S. Stocks Posted: 08 Jul 2012 11:18 AM PDT By Lou Basenese: In Thursday's article, I promised to share with you why stocks could actually rally even if the economy hits a slow patch. I know. It's totally counterintuitive. But it's true. Since it's Friday, though, instead of proving it with some longwinded analysis, I'm going to let the charts do the talking for me. After all, a picture is worth a thousand words, right? Here's to hoping it's worth a thousand-point rally (or more) for stocks, too! Five Reasons to be Bullish on U.S. Stocks In a recent MarketWatch article, well-known pundit, Jon D. Markman said, "We are witnessing one of the most ragtag, stop-and-start, leaderless, rudderless, rowdy, dipsy-doodle, shoot-the-rapids, damn-the-torpedoes, get-out-of-my-way bull markets in the past 50 years." Really, dude? You're complaining about a bull market? I'm sorry, but I'll take any kind of bull market over a bear market any day. With that in mind, here are five graphics Complete Story » |
| Most Accurate Stock Market Predictions – Next Major Move Posted: 08 Jul 2012 11:02 AM PDT The term Stock market predictions is a very controversial topic and does seem to give off a negative/non-credible overtone to most traders, investors and the general public. We all know you cannot predict the market with 100% certainty, but knowing that you can still predict the market more times than not if done correctly. Keep in mind that the term "market prediction" is also known as a market forecast or technical analysis outlook and is nothing more than a estimated guess of where the price for a specific investment is likely to move in the coming minutes, hours, days, weeks and even months. Getting back on topic, this report clearly shows how the US dollar plays a dominant role in the price of other investments. Understanding how to read the Dollar Index will make you a better trader all around when trading stocks, ETF's, options or futures. SP500 Stock Market predictions – 10 Minute Chart:  Most Accurate Stock Market Predictions
Gold Market Prediction – 10 Minute Charts
 Gold Market Forecast Procetions
Long Term Stock Market Forecast: So, if we apply technical analysis to the dollar chart as seen below. You will notice we are able to create a market forecast and predict roughly where price is likely to move and how long it should take to get there. If the dollar can break above the red resistance level then we can expect a rally for 4 – 8 weeks and a price target around the 87-88 level. If this is the case then stocks and commodities would likely do the inverse price action and move lower, sharply lower…  Dollar Long Term Market Forecast
Stock Market Predictions & Gold Market Forecast Conclusion: In short, the next weekly candle stick on the dollar chart could be a game changer for those who are long the overall stock market. I will admit that the current market conditions are not easy to trade because of all the headline news rolling out of Europe each week along with economic data. And I feel as though we have been tip toeing through a mine field for the past 12+ months waiting for extremely negative news are extremely positive news to trigging a wave of buying or selling that will make our jaw drop, but it has yet to happen. Remember always use stops and don't get over committed in a headline driven market. If you would like to receive my free weekly analysis like this, be sure to opt-in to my list: www.GoldAndOilGuy.com Chris Vermeulen |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2012 10:43 AM PDT IT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW YOU LOOK AT IT. from scrapgoldbusiness: ~TVR |
| Charts: Silver, Gold, Dollar Index, Dow Jones 7.8.12 Posted: 08 Jul 2012 10:42 AM PDT |
| Silver: The First Televised Market in History Posted: 08 Jul 2012 09:54 AM PDT |
| Johnson & Johnson: Dogged By Uncertainty Posted: 08 Jul 2012 06:52 AM PDT By Investment Underground: by Mark Goldstein Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is only about a dollar and a half short of its 52-week high of $68. Although Johnson & Johnson offers a great dividend of $.61 per quarter and has achieved a fairly stable stock price over the past few years, I am not currently confident in buying Johnson & Johnson stock. The company has taken measures to continue its successful growth, but it has also been subject to lawsuits and unsuccessful pharmaceutical studies. With its price so high, and so little room for growth, the negative news will keep Johnson & Johnson from rising enough to truly reward investors. Let's start with why Johnson & Johnson is trading so high right now. Johnson & Johnson has recently completed a $19.7 billion acquisition of the Swiss medical device maker Synthes. Synthes is the world's largest producer of implants that mend broken bones while it Complete Story » |
| Posted: 08 Jul 2012 06:42 AM PDT In the old days of GIM i got Gkhan to put this as a permanent link so more could check it out.. This low budget 1996 documentary probably did more than anything else to wake up folks.. Once every 6 months or so i give it another view.. 500k views on this version.. Nice. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JXt1cayx0hs |
| 4 Undervalued Stocks With Yields Up To 11% Posted: 08 Jul 2012 05:58 AM PDT By Hawkinvest: European stocks might appear unusually risky at this time, but with stock prices at extremely low valuations, the downside risk might now be limited. In fact, unless the worst-case scenarios play out, the next few months could be a once in a lifetime buying opportunity for European equities. Most, if not all eurozone countries appear headed for a recession, if they are not in one already. I would even say things will get worse before they get better for Europe's economy. However, a lot of bad news is priced into most European stocks. In fact, if you compare valuations of U.S. based multi-nationals to European counterparts, it's becomes very compelling to buy European stocks. We have already seen a few U.S. based companies warn that 2nd quarter earnings will not meet expectations due to Europe's economic situation and also due to foreign currency exchange. The weak Euro and strong dollar Complete Story » |
| Real Unemployment Rate At 9.8%: Avoid Risky Asset Classes Posted: 08 Jul 2012 05:45 AM PDT By Faisal Humayun: The unemployment situation in June 2012 remained largely the same in terms of the unemployment rate remaining steady at 8.2% (12.7 million people unemployed). However, with the real unemployment rate at 9.8%, the risky asset classes reacted negatively to the jobs report. The Real Job Scenario - Consider the following from the latest BLS employment situation release:
In my opinion, these 2.5 million people need to be added in order to get the real unemployment rate. In doing that, Complete Story » |
| After Gleevec: In Search Of The Next Wonder Drug Posted: 08 Jul 2012 04:57 AM PDT By Peter Geschek: Gleevec from Novartis (NVS) is the gold standard of chronic myeloid leukemia [CML] treatment. Before Gleevec came to the market about 20 years ago, median survival for patients with this disease was three to six years, and was treated with interferon-alpha or allogeneic stem cell transplantation. With Gleevec, the 10-year survival rate now stands at 68%. The complete response rate is at 85%. Clearly, Gleevec is a blockbuster drug. $4.6 billion worth of the drug was sold in 2011, a 9% increase from the previous year. As great a drug as Gleevec is, statistics show that eventually 40 percent of all patients discontinue therapy due to resistance or intolerance to it. Gleevec does not cure CML, and one of the reasons is, according to some scientists, that Gleevec does not kill leukemia stem cells in CML. Leukemia stem cells survive and so does the cancer. Therefore, the search for replacement Complete Story » |
| 3 Small Cap Dividend Stocks Trading Below Value Despite Analyst Backing Posted: 08 Jul 2012 03:26 AM PDT By ZetaKap: Are you a dividend investor looking for stocks that pay out high yields at a sustainable pace? If so, one place to look is in the small-cap space, particularly for companies that have received votes of confidence from analysts, as a way to hone in on the absolute best in class. As an added bonus, we focused further on companies that look undervalued from a price-multiple standpoint. We came up with a pretty interesting list. The Price/Sales ratio is a price-multiple valuation metric used to help identify if a firm is cheap by its twelve month trailing sales numbers. In the most basic terms, it let's an investor know how much the investment community is willing to pay for every dollar's worth of sales. A firm with a P/S ratio of one or lower would be viewed as cheap, because investors are paying $1 or less for every dollar's worth Complete Story » |
| Hinde Capitals Ben Davies calculates a gold price by money supply and credit creation Posted: 07 Jul 2012 11:41 PM PDT |
| Silver Update: Economic Flatline – 7.7.12 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 11:19 PM PDT brotherjohnf: Silver Update 7/7/12 Economic Flatline ~TVR |
| The Golden Rule: James Grant explains why gold standard is the future Posted: 07 Jul 2012 10:08 PM PDT The Golden Rule James Grant explains why "the classical monetary system called the gold standard … is the wave of the future" BY JONATHAN BARNES CFA Magazine July – August 2012 RETURNING TO THE GOLD STANDARD is no longer a fringe idea and even has become part of mainstream political discussion. James Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, is a longtime advocate of the gold standard and critic of Central Bank monetary policy. In this interview with CFA Magazine, Grant speaks about the failures of the current monetary system, the practical steps toward a new gold standard, and his assessment of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's four lectures in opposition to the gold standard, given at George Washington University in March 2012. full article in PDF format is here: http://www.pdf-archive.com/2012/07/0.../jim-grant.pdf The link above won't bring up the PDF document.... halfway down the web page it takes you to, click the "Download file" link and then you'll get the PDF file. |
| Eurozone Banking Union: Who Pays for Past Mistakes? Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:59 PM PDT Yves here. This article by Daniel Gros highlights a potentially insurmountable obstacle in dealing with the escalating Eurocrisis. Germany is insisting that agreements be made on medium term measures, such as implementing European banking supervision, as a condition of any further loosening of its purse strings. While Germany isn't necessarily wrong to insist that policy makers not lose sight of the need to agree on how to achieve more integration, the emphasis seems a bit cart-before-the-horse-ish. There won't be a medium term if the Eurocrats don't deal with the immediate problems more decisively. Gros points out that one matter that will need to be resolved before implementing a banking union is how to deal with existing losses, particularly those of Spanish banks. That is an issue no politician is likely to want to touch. By Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. Cross posted from VoxEU The EZ crisis – born as a debt crisis (Greece) – has grown up into a banking crisis (Ireland, Cyprus, Spain, …). This column argues that Spain is symptomatic of larger banking problems, so the EU Summit decisions on banking union are welcome and critical to any long-term solution. Yet someone must pay for Spanish bank losses. Spanish politics is shielding Spanish creditors, European politics is shielding EZ taxpayers, so the Spanish government will pay – and in doing so may go the way of Ireland. This crisis is far from over. Banks were "international in life, but national in death" in the first couple years of the Global Crisis. Large, internationally-engaged banks had to be rescued by their home government country despite the rescue being in the interest of many nations. How times change. European banks are now "national in life, but European in death". In Spain, for example, the banks' problems were all national – local savings banks (cajas) financed a huge real estate boom. As the boom turned to bust and the losses threaten to overwhelm the capacity of the Spanish state, the problem became European. An Irish-like failure of Spain triggered by a collapse of its banks would threaten the euro's very survival and this core economic interest of all EZ members (De Grauwe 2012).
National supervisors have always a tendency to minimize problems on their own turf. This tendency was very much in operation in Spain. Until very recently, Spanish authorities maintained that the real estate problems were temporary.
The tragic sense of the word is that they overlooked the build-up of a huge construction boom whose bust now threatens to bankrupt the entire nation. The Irish case was not much different to start with. When the problems started to surface, the Finance Minister first claimed that this would become "the cheapest bank rescue ever". Systemic weakness of national bank regulation Given this predictable tendency of national supervisors not to recognize problems at home it seemed natural that the cost of cleaning up insolvent banks should also be borne at the national level. At first sight it thus made sense that even in the Eurozone banking supervision remained largely national, with only some loose coordination at the EU level. A 'European Banking Authority' was created recently, but it has only very limited powers over national supervisors whose daily work remains guided be national considerations. A nascent banking union The need to rectify this situation has now finally been recognized by Europe's leaders who decided at their last summit that the responsibility for banking supervision in the Eurozone should be transferred to the ECB. They naturally put the ECB in charge given that the integration of the financial system is particularly strong within the Eurozone. Moreover, the ECB is already de facto responsible for the stability of the Eurozone's banking system. But at present it has to lend massive amounts to banks without being able to judge their solidity because all the detailed information about the health of the banks is still in the hands of national authorities who guard this information jealously. And, as we saw in Ireland and Spain, these are the authorities who tend to overlook the problem until it is too late. The ECB already de facto started to assume some supervisory power in a little noticed step when it announced that government guaranteed bank bonds would be accepted as collateral for new lending only if the banks draw up a funding plan which indicates how they will be able to finance their operations without excessive recourse to the ECB. Creeping dis-integration of the EZ banking sector Putting the ECB in charge would also help to stop the creeping disintegration process which is not visible in public, but very real. There are several cases of large international banking groups headquartered in countries which today are under financial stress. These groups are being torn apart by the conflicting pressures from national supervisors. Consider the case of a bank headquartered in Italy, but with an important subsidiary in Germany. The German operations generate a surplus of funds since Germany saves more than it invests at home.
Putting the ECB in charge of banking supervision thus solves one problem. But it creates another one. Can one still hold national authorities responsible for saving banks which they no longer supervise? This is not a new problem. The De Larosiere Report (2009), which became the basis for the creation of the European Banking Authority (EBA) and the Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), argued that the ECB should not be involved in 'micro' supervision mainly because banking rescue and resolution involves tax payer money, which they assumed had to be national. First comes EZ bank regulation then comes EZ bank rescues Banking regulation and restitution are difficult to separate – no wants to pay for things they cannot control. Economic (and political) logic thus requires that the Eurozone will soon need also a common bank rescue fund. Officially this is not fully acknowledged yet, except for a hint in the EZ summit statement of June 28/9 which says that once a system of supervision involving the ECB has been created it would become possible for the permanent rescue fund, the ESM, to inject capital into banks. This is how European integration often advances. An incomplete step in one area later requires further integration in related areas. In the past this method has worked well. The EU of today is a result of such a process. But a financial crisis does not give policymakers the time they used to have to explain things to their electorate. The steps will have to follow each other much more quickly if the euro is to survive in its current form. Problems ahead The worrying thing is that the terrain EZ leaders must cross is heavily mined. Europe does not have the luxury to construct its banking union from a stable situation. This new institution is being set up in the midst of a banking crisis. There are clearly large losses that have to be realized and allocated.
The most difficult case is going to be Spain. The local savings banks are the weakest part of the Spanish banking system because they specialized in mortgages and lending to developers, i.e. the areas where very large losses are to be expected. A number of these were recently 'privatized', often in the context of mergers. These new institutions then had to raise capital in various forms (shares, preferred shares, subordinated debt). Given that institutional and especially international investors were not willing to invest in these instruments (not surprising given that the state of the Spanish real estate market) the new capital was raised mainly from domestic investors, often the depositors themselves.[1] Who pays for past mistakes? This leads to the first conflict: Who should bear the losses the (Spanish) investors or the Spanish government? As retail investors are also voters, the government (and the management of the cajas) have now incentives to pay back as quickly as possible all instruments that would otherwise be loss absorbing. This seems to be happening on a broad scale. It is thus possible that by the end of this year the weakest banks will have repaid all of their hybrid instruments at par or close to par. At that point the loss absorption capacity of the Spanish banking sector will be much reduced. But this leads to the second distributional conflict: Will the European tax payers want to pay for past losses? As the answer is presumably no, there is thus a danger that by the end of this year it will become impossible to inject European capital into Spanish banks unless either a number of banks have gone into informal insolvency (to bail in other creditors) or the Spanish government has put enough into the system to cover past losses (which it might not be able to do). The road towards banking union is going to be difficult.
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| Gerald Celente – The Biggest Story of the 21st Century Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:55 PM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today top trends forecaster Gerald Celente spoke with King World News what he called, "the story of the 21st century." He also discussed gold at length, and stated, "…it's rigged (the gold market). Again, go back to the LIBOR scandal, they were lying about the severity of the crisis by rigging the numbers." Celente is the founder of Trends Research, and the man many consider to be the top trends forecaster in the world. Here is what Celente had to say: "Eric, the big news is the formation of a European Central Bank, in the same fashion as the United States central bank. Of course there's the ECB now, but what's really going on now, it's not about bailing out the banks of Spain, Greece, Italy, Ireland or Portugal, no, that's not what that last G-20 meeting was all about." Gerald Celente continues: "So you see it's a big camouflage because what they are doing now is they are forming a central bank in Brussels. All of the countries are going to be losing their banking sovereignty, just like they've lost it in the United States. They are all under the thumb of the central bank. Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| In Classic Cartel Form, Gold & Silver Pop, Then Raided Post NFP Report Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:49 PM PDT
from silverdoctors.com: Gold and silver spiked immediately following the jobs report release, with silver spiking to .50 to $27.86, and gold popping $15 to $1611. It appears that the cartel allowed the metals to make a mini-parabolic move prior to today's raid, sucking in new speculative longs, who were stopped out of the positions only moments later as the cartel initiated the smack-down. This is the EXACT SAME MO used by the cartel in yesterday's raid. Keep on reading @ silverdoctors.com |
| The Gold Silver Ratio As An Early Warning Indicator Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:46 PM PDT
from acting-man.com: The Gold-Silver Ratio and Credit Spreads We recently presented a long term chart of the gold-silver ratio. Traditionally it has been a leading indicator of credit spreads, as during times of declining economic confidence silver, which has a large industrial demand component, tends to fall against gold (which is what this ratio depicts, only vice versa). Our comment below the chart went as follows: „The 'fly in the ointment' chart. In spite of the big party the markets threw on Friday, the gold-silver ratio has broken through a long term downtrend line this year. This bodes ill for the medium to long term outlook for stocks and junk bonds, as the ratio tends to work as a proxy and leading indicator for credit spreads. Note in this context that junk bond issuance has recently diverged bearishly from the stock market (namely at the early April high in the SPX). This is a phenomenon that was last observed in 2007." This prompted a reader to ask us to clarify this comment further in an e-mail exchange. We thought it might also be of interest to other readers and our further thoughts on the matter follow below: Per experience, major trend changes in this ratio precede credit distress with a lead time varying from a few weeks to a few months (as always, this is more art than science). It is a heads-up that 'risk assets' of all kinds could get into trouble as the year goes on, provided the ratio does not reverse convincingly. Since the AU-AG ratio's peak during the 2008 crash, it has been in a long term downtrend – since the downtrend line has recently been breached, a warning signal is currently held to be operative. Keep on reading @ acting-man.com |
| Jim Sinclair – The War Between Manipulation and Buying Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:41 PM PDT
from goldsilver.com: My Dear Extended Family, Next week is the war between manipulation of gold by the West, and appetite for buying gold in the East, both from friendlies and enemies. Anyone that does not see today's gold market as a rig is blind or brain dead. There is a full blown crisis in Western world banking today, right here and now. There is a full blown crisis in sovereign debt of some weaker nations as in a very short while certain government will be out of money. The Eurosnobs hate each other which does not make for a fast reconciliation of a crisis. It is a myth that Western banks are strong enough to weather the storm of a full blown banking crisis in Europe. It is a myth that the Federal Reserve will stand as the one hawk in the Western world and fiddle while it's Rome burns. It is a myth that Obama could be re-elected if the Fed remains intransigent. It is a myth that Finland or Germany will strike a match to the euro that totally wipes out the largest part of their exports. It is a myth that governments are ready to face the economic, social and political fallout standing austere as their economies implode, which they will. It is myth that there is any recovery in the USA. By falling more we will be in a depression. Keep on reading @ goldsilver.com |
| Weak Jobs May Mean More Printing and Higher Precious Metals Prices Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:36 PM PDT
from safehaven.com: Gold (GLD) is consolidating after hitting a two-week high. Investors are witnessing renewed strength in precious metals after the Fed announced the expansion of Operation Twist until at least the end of the year. Similarly, gold and silver (SLV) have been recently moving higher based on the eurozone and stocks are breathing a sigh of relief as the summit came up with a purported solution to reduce funding costs, particularly for Italy and Spain, worth $149 billion. This may stimulate the eurozone. In addition, precious metal investors appear to be optimistic as the European Central Bank, Bank of England and the People's Bank of China concurrently ease interest rates to stimulate global growth in the depressed eurozone, which is experiencing record unemployment. So optimism is returning to Europe while the U.S., which has heretofore been a safe haven, is beginning to show signs that unemployment may be lurking higher. U.S. jobs data on Friday was lackluster. Weaker numbers going into the election could once again restart discussion of QE3. A possible coordinated stimulus by the ECB and China could be a catalyst for fund managers and traders returning from their 4th of July holiday vacation. This week should be quiet but next week could be exciting, especially if we witness this worldwide coordinated effort to stave off a pandemic meltdown before the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Over the past three years we have seen positive reversals in gold bullion in the summer months. The second half could represent an explosive move in the yellow metal as a coordinated worldwide stimulus begins. Nations such as Japan, EU, England and the U.S. are attempting to devalue their currencies in order to create growth and payoff soaring debts. Austerity is unpopular and the only solution is to continue to monetize the debt. Keep on reading @ safehaven.com |
| Roubini Warns a Crisis in 2013 Would Be Worse Than 2008 Posted: 07 Jul 2012 09:10 PM PDT Nouriel Roubini, the dour seer who was early (too early in the minds of some) to warn of possible financial crisis prior to the Great Upheaval, has been more cautious in his calls since having ascended to official pundit status. Nevertheless, he's been warning of a possible crisis in 2013 for some time and is not backing off from that call as the date approaches. In this Bloomberg interview, Roubini describes why a meltdown next year would be even worse than what we saw in 2008. Notice how he ducks the question of safe havens. He also discusses the prospects for the Eurozone.
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2012 04:33 PM PDT
From The Korelin Economics Report: Roger Wiegand and Al Korelin take stock in recent events and Rog makes predictions for future. More @ KEReport
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| Posted: 07 Jul 2012 04:33 PM PDT What will really drive silver up? High demand and production is the simple answer. The future outlook is a repeat of the 1930′s when a global downturn preceded a global war. from syyenergy7: ~TVR |
| Blazer Metals Report: Silver Premiums Posted: 07 Jul 2012 04:26 PM PDT |
| Jeff Nielson: Treasury Bond Market Fraud Posted: 07 Jul 2012 04:12 PM PDT In this podcast: from altinvestorshangout: ~TVR |
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