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Sunday, July 1, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Metals' wild week analyzed by Haynes, Norcini at King World News

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 07:07 PM PDT

2:03p ICT Sunday, July 1, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Another wild week in the precious metals, this time a happy one, is analyzed by Bill Haynes of CMI Gold and Silver and futures market expert Dan Norcini in audio at King World News here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/6/30_K...

Also at King World News, fund manager Michael Pento writes that the looming debt monetization in Europe will greatly benefit gold and gold mining company shares:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/30_Th...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



Silver Update 6/30/12 Silver and Euros

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 06:20 PM PDT

Alternative Hedges to Inflation: Copper & Nickel

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 02:51 PM PDT

by SGT

Apparently I, along with other silver bugs, was called on the carpet by fellow You Tuber Don Harrold recently as being one of the "silver bugs" who never talks about alternative hedges to physical silver and gold. Now before anyone goes bashing Don I'd like to say that although I don't agree with his views on some subjects, he has always been cordial with me generally speaking – as is the case here. Read on.

Apparently between the time I learned about Don's original video, in which I was specifically mentioned, Don had already produced an apology video, which frankly was unnecessary. We all make mistakes sometimes. But to Don's credit, in his second video he specifically mentioned my February 2011 video 'Alternative Inflation Hedges: Copper & Nickel'. I was curious to learn who had alerted Don to the existence of this video, so I fished through the comments. I want to thank my former web master, contributor and friend Stefan B for being the one to steer Don in the right direction.

For those who haven't seen my video, here ya go. And remember: When you collect pre-1983 copper pennies you benefit from an immediate 100%+ return on your invested capital as you save these coins for the day when it becomes legal to melt them. Newly minted one ounce copper rounds on the other hand are vastly over-priced and despite their beauty, should be avoided.

So… keep stackin', physical copper, nickel AND the cartel manipulated precious metals silver and gold.


The world’s most expensive ‘edible cup cake’

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 02:00 PM PDT

[Ed. Note: What illustrates the moral depravity and general insanity of the less than 1% better than a $28,000 cupcake?]

from Arabian Gazette:

Bloomsbury's officially opened at The Dubai Mall on Thursday 28th June 2012. The new boutique café in Dubai marks the one year anniversary of Bloomsbury's which opened it's doors to food lovers last year in Abu Dhabi.

The new store is located on the lower ground floor of The Dubai Mall and is one of many new locations due to open in the Gulf. Bloomsbury's brings the luxurious taste of London to Dubai with its boutique cupcakes and confectionaries along with world renowned teas and coffees.

The opening event at The Dubai Mall was inaugurated by Mr Yusuff Ali MA (EMKE Group) and saw the unveiling of "The Most Expensive 'Edible' Cupcake" named "The Golden Phoenix" using the finest, most expensive ingredients available from around the world.

Afternoon tea was served to guests and the setting of the opening was very English indeed, the ambiance was set with street lamps and London street signage, definitely a rare sight for sore eyes at The Dubai Mall. After the ceremonial ribbon cutting, The most expensive 'edible' cupcake, The Golden Phoenix, was rolled in on a lush, Italian, Villari 24 carat gold plated Maria Antoinette Princess Tea Trolley and presented on a 24 carat gold painted Empire Morning Cake Stand with Cloch. The unveiling of The Golden Phoenix presentation exceeded $28,000 (AED100,000).

Read More @ ArabianGazette.com


Devalue the Euro?

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 12:58 PM PDT

Holy smokes! The EU technocrats have finally pulled out the big guns! The agreement on Friday was to take the incredibly bold step of avoiding subordination in the Spanish bond market. The money needed for the busted Spanish banks will now be made available directly from Brussels with few strings attached. Wow! What a breakthrough!

Global markets have taken a quick look at what has been offered up by the deep thinkers in Euroland and said, “WE LOVE IT!”

Me? I think it’s a spit in the bucket. The half-life of this bailout will be measured in weeks.

We have seen this play out time and again the past four years. The capital markets are forcing policy decisions. 

“Wise” people like Paul Krugman have said for years that “Bond Vigilantes” don’t exist. There is no doubt any longer that they exist and are alive, well and hungry. The vigilantes are also armed with highly sophisticated robots that can execute attacks on multiple fronts and across markets in milliseconds. The war going on in the bond markets is not over by a long shot.

My read of the EU summit is that Spanish banks are going to get a “soft” bailout. Existing common shareholders and subordinated bond holders will not get wiped out (as they should). The bankers must love this result. They get to keep their jobs for a few years longer, all the time praying for a miracle.

Where does this go? Directly to Italy. Which Italian bank would love to have some of that cheap equity money that Brussels is doling out? All of them.

But here’s the deal, France’s banks are in desperate need of new equity too. They have been selling off assets left and right. That’s no way to keep up employment in Socialist France. There are some very big balances sheets in Paris that need a new slug of 3% Perpetual Preferreds. If Italy’s banks get the "Sweet Deal," then the French banks will have their hands out too.

Talking about re-caps of banks in Spain, Italy and France, we might just as well include a few dodgy banks in Brussels. A couple of German banks are also thin on equity.  Add a few of them to the list.

Ah… I’m sorry to rain on the parade, but the number derived from all that bailing starts with Euro 1 Trillion, and could easily push to E2T.

Where is this big sum of money coming from? A three-letter entity that doesn’t really exist yet? One whose charter requires votes from EU countries? The “savior” that is going to do the trillions of bank-bailing actually doesn’t have a penny to its name.

And can I ask someone about the timing of all these things getting sorted out? Look at the calendar. Europe is on holiday. See you in September before any of this is inked and the money is flowing. The vigilantes are not on Vaca.

If I'm right, after a few weeks things turn south again in the capital markets. Then what?

- More LTRO. No – there is no more collateral. All of the swill loans have already been hocked.

- Cut ECB % rate. Doesn’t matter. It won't change conditions in Italian or Spanish funding markets one bit.

- A spending plan of <1% of GDP. That won’t put a dent in the recession that is building.

- Brussels buys more sovereign bonds to avoid a catastrophe of Italian 10-year exceeding 7% (capitulation). Sorry. There are “wise men” in Germany who will simply not allow this to happen in the scale that is required.

- The ECB goes Defcon 1 and launches a E2T QE program. No – same answer as above.

- Merkel does a 180 and embraces Euro bonds. No chance in hell.

-The US or China are going to start buying EU bonds? Lunacy – not happening.

-The IMF will come to the rescue? No way – the IMF does not have the resources to solve anyone’s problems.

There are more bullshit things that could be added to this list, but they either will not work, or are too politically unacceptable to happen. If the steps taken on Friday fail to stem the crisis beyond a few weeks, what else is on the table for consideration? The answer is that whatever may be coming, it must meet the following criteria:

-must be able to be implemented in a very short period of time (e.g. a Sunday night announcement).

-must have a global component. Europe does not have the resources to address the problems it faces alone.

-can’t be subject to political approval. That process takes too long, and the politicians can’t agree on anything of substance.

What policy steps meet these requirements? There is only one. The next significant step out of Europe will involve changes in FX rates around the globe. A number of possible currency steps have already been discussed, including:

1) Peripheral countries re-establish their legacy currencies. Spain will reintroduce the Peseta, Italy will bring back the Lira etc.

2) The Euro is split in two. There would be a Northern and a Southern Euro.

3) Germany leaves the Euro and re-establishes the Deutche Mark.

These are possible outcomes. But I consider them to be unlikely. Too much effort has been taken to create and preserve the Euro for the deciders to throw in the towel anytime soon.

There is one currency option left. Devalue the Euro by 20++%.

This would make a difference. It would go a long way towards stabilizing the real economies of Europe. It would create inflation, something that is sorely needed to devalue the real size of Europe’s debts. Germany would agree to this as it preserves their export-competitive position within the EU, and improves it outside of the EU. The technocrats in Brussels would love it; it’s the only thing left that would preserve the monetary union.

Is this feasible? I say it is. It has happened twice before in history. In 1985 the world got the Plaza Accord that devalued the dollar and in 1987 we got the Louvre Accord that revalued the dollar. In both cases, the global central banks (CBs) and acted together.

With Plaza Accord, the CBs made a joint announcement on a Sunday evening that they would be selling the dollar against major currencies until such time as a meaningful devaluation had been achieved. It worked.

A devaluation of the Euro (versus the Yen, Sterling and the Dollar) would be approved in Brussels in a heartbeat. Germany would be reluctant because of the inflationary implications, but it would reap the benefits of a cheaper currency too. The USA and China would absolutely hate to see a devaluation of the Euro. It would hurt their respective economies. But the deciders in China and Washington also know that a complete breakdown of the EU economy would lead to a global depression.

The timing of something like this is critical. Would Obama instruct the Treasury Department to intervene in the currency markets (via the Federal Reserve)? He would, if it happened in the next few months. The consequences would not be felt, in a meaningful way, by US exporters until after the November election. Obama also understands that if the EU goes belly up before the election, his chance of winning goes down. If the EU tanks, so will the S&P.

China and Japan would have some say in this in order for it to be successful. The CB interventions would have to be coordinated. If the UK and US go along with it, then Japan will be forced to join in.

China is a wild card. If China participated, it would be devaluing its own Euro reserves. It would cost China a few hundred billion dollars. But it would cost China far more if the EU went into the crapper for the next five years.

I’ve been out of the FX markets lately. I’ve been concerned about “event risk”, where something is accomplished in Europe that actually made a difference. I think that this kind of event risk is now behind us. I bought some puts on the Euro Friday afternoon. We shall see.

The idea of a coordinated central bank response ala the Plaza and Louvre Accords may seem far-fetched. But tell me another option that has a chance of working.

What is the “fair” value of the Euro? Whatever the central banks want it to be. Is the Euro over valued today? Visit the EU and make your own judgment. I say it is. The following articles go a long way towards answering the question of the Euro’s value versus the dollar. When EADs puts up $600m to build a manufacturing facility in Mobile Al., you know the Euro is over-valued.

.

.

.

Given what is happening in Europe these days, I'm surprised that Airbus is doing this. Places like Spain could use the $600m investment in plant, equipment and jobs that goes with this. Good for Mobile, not so good for Europe.

.

 
 
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Federal Reserve Mulling New Gold Regulation; ‘May be biggest event in gold market since US dropped gold standard’

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 12:00 PM PDT

from Strat Risks:

US authorities have recently called for comment on a rule change that may impact the gold market.

The US Treasury, Federal Reserve and the FDIC have jointly sought comment on changing some capital adequacy rules for when an institution holds gold in its own vaults or in another's vaults.

According to the draft documents released, when gold is currently held as an asset, it is risk weighted at 15% – that is, a 15% haircut is taken on its current value for capital adequacy calculations. (See page 86 of the attached Federal Reserve document.)

However, in this same document, they are proposing that there be no (zero) discount.

That would then put gold on the same basis as cash.

217.131 Mechanics for Calculating Total Wholesale and Retail Risk-Weighted Assets.

(i) A bank holding company or savings and loan holding company may assign a riskweighted asset amount of zero to cash owned and held in all offices of subsidiary depository institutions or in transit; and for gold bullion held in a subsidiary depository institution's own vaults, or held in another depository institution's vaults on an allocated basis, to the extent the gold bullion assets are offset by gold bullion liabilities.

This seems an adventurous move. Over the past five years, the US$ value of gold has moved more than +/-50% from its average over that time, and is currently sitting -20% below its high in that same period. In cash terms, there certainly has been market price risk.

Read More @ StratRisks.com


29 Jun 2012 – &quot; One Step Beyond &quot; (Madness, 1979)

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 10:44 AM PDT

 

 

Understands who can… The Brussels nightly drama yielded first tweeted “results”, then none, then yes. Then some bickering, Southern drama, then truce. Then they still were not done haggling.

In any case, first white smoke signals 30 minutes ahead of the US close managed to turn around the equity market sharply by over 1%, leading to an only mild negative close. Asian stocks up 1.5% as a whole, leaving Q1 behind and heading into the weekend. Overnight data showing stable CPI and employment figures in Japan, but disappointing IP readings slowing to 6.2% YoY (fcst 6.7% after 12.9%. Don’t forget the Fukushima base effect, here) and PMI slipping just below the 50 mark at 49.9 after 50.7, its weakest reading since Dec 2011.

 

Roaring ROn start in Europe with equities gapping up 3%, Core EGBs wider by a good 15bp. Italy and Spain tighter by 40 and 50 bp respectively in 10s, taking BTPs back through 6% and BONOs through 6.50%. The effect was even more explosive in 2s, down by 70 bp and 85bp, taking the latter respectively back to the 3.75% and 4.50% area. Then again, it’s certainly a big move, but on second thought these remain HIGH yields.

Main and Financials tighter by 10 and 20. Tamer commodities reaction with 1.5%-2% upswing. EUR out to the 26 handle.

 

German Retail Sales hit hard in May and at -1.1% YoY a huge miss of the +1.9% forecast. Previous data was as well revised lower from -3.8% to -4.3%. Same picture on a MoM basis at -0.3% (fcst +0.2% after prior +0.6% revised to -0.2%). Another sign that Germany is running out of steam, too. French PPI below forecast as well at 2.2% YoY (fcst 2.7% unchanged). Doesn’t seem to worry French consumers, who unexpectedly increased spending in May MoM by 0.4% (fcst was 0% after revised +0.7%). Good headline stuff for musings about freewheeling French and austere Germans. In any case, price pressure seems to diminish here and there, which should give the ECB the opportunity next week to add a stone to the rescue by lowering rates a little. If it wasn’t for that M3 growth that came out at much higher than expected +2.9% YoY (fcst 2.3% after 2.5%)… Then again, given the capital flight stories of late, one could expect that all that money sloshing back and forth ends messing up statistics. EZ CPI unchanged at 2.4%, as expected. Sticky above 2%, but with lower outlook.

 

And then? Once the initial ROn Rocket launched, stops triggered and shorts covered, people started poring over the docs and statements and things went “static to less ecstatic”. That EUR 120bn growth package happened to have been the one already pitched last Friday and mainly coming courtesy of a capital-increased EIB, some frontloaded spending and from the private sector. So no real new cash here. As this being a 2-day exercise and still ongoing, different titbits and comments, bickering about details, seniority or not questions et al started to somewhat sap the mood. Southern European popular press headlines certainly not helping the cohesion process, either. As details were still hammered out, Core EZ Front adjustments and setting things straight comments had the ROn fizzle out a bit at the end of the morning.

Most to the point morning comment du jour, certainly reflecting many views at that stage: A decisive solution: using a fund that doesn't exist to buy debt that won't be repaid via a mechanism that hasn't been agreed.

 

End of morning static stand-by with the Core EZ EGB gang wider by 10bp, Italy down a good 20bp to 5.95% and Spain down 30bp to 6.60% EUR off highs at 1.258. Equities about 2.5% from COB. Credit quite static after the initial tightening of 10 and 20 in Main and Financials. Waiting for whatever happens next – and details… Story of everyone’s life in the markets these days.

European equities gained 1% over lunch, as practical details were hammered out, and added another 1% at US open.

 

Strong Milwaukee NAPM at 60.2 (fcst 55.1 after 57.7). Not sure this would have mattered in normal times, but on such a strong ROn day, it just added to the positive attitude. Personal Income and spending at 0.2% and 0.0% as forecasted. Chicago Purchasing better at 52.9 (fcst 52.3 after 52.7) with final Michigan Confidence undershooting at 73.2 (fcst 74.1).

 

Tailor-made ESM non-seniority for the Spanish intervention, but conditionality attached, so a bit for everyone. Finnish and probable Dutch collateral demands. German opposition in arms over the German attitude U-turn (small tail risk, but the ESM still needs to be ratified in Germany).

The whole summit is certainly a strong Italo-Spanish political achievement. But, hell, from here on things ought not to derail anymore, as, despite contrary assertions, it does look like the German front was cornered and pushed to its limits. Difficult to expect further concessions, comes the next crisis. Italian 2-10 steeper by 40 bp and Spanish equivalent by 50bp. Strong Irish performance, too, with long benchmarks down by 60 bp on the day, now trading low 6.40% as that bespoke ESM banking thing can certainly be applied elsewhere, too.

Seemingly Greece was either not discussed at all or not seen as imminent threat enough at this summit.

A definitive step towards a banking union, but the final target just seems highly improbable on a short outlook and will take years of further bickering.

Question is how many more times can this be done, as the whole sovereignty-solidarity-federalism-deficit-bank loop-risk adverseness is certainly not off the table for good.

 

Good close of the week. Certainly one step beyond… on a long and winding road.

 

Had New Issue from Nordea testing waters for a senior double-trancher with EUR 1.25bn long 5 YRS at MS +100 and EUR 1bn 10 YRS at MS +135 and fellow Nordic Sparebanken 1 tapping EUR 250m on an outstanding 2016 covered bond at MS +27.

 

Closing levels:

10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,58% (+7); Luxembourg 1,91% (+5); Swaps 2,02% (+9); Finland 2,04% (+5); Netherlands 2,09% (+3); EU 2,40% (+4), Austria 2,52% (+2); EIB 2,61% (+4); France 2,68% (+1); EFSF 2,72% (+2); Belgium 3,18% (-3); Italy 5,78% (-40); Spain 6,29% (-60).

 

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 33bp (-2); Swaps 44bp (+2); Finland 40bp (-8); Netherlands 51bp (-4); EU 82bp (-3); Austria 94bp (-5); EIB 103bp (-3); France 110bp (-6); EFSF 114bp (-5); Belgium 160bp (-10); Italy 420bp (-47); Spain 471bp (-67).

Switched Belgium ref to Sep 2022.

 

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 47bp (+3,0); 5-10 YRS 69bp (+4,0) 10-30 YRS 30bp (-1,0).

2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,120% (+1,6) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,61% (+4).

 

Main at 166 from 178 (6,7% tighter); Financials at 261 after 289 (tighter by 9,7%). SovX at 282 from 298. Cross at 662 from 705.

 

Stoxx Futures at 2255 / +4,7% (from 2153) with S&P minis at 1349 (+2,9% from 1311, at European close). Well that’s an impressive 5.7% rally from yesterday’s lows.

VIX index at 19,7 after 20,6 yesterday same time.

 

Oil 82,3/95,4 (WTI/Brent) from 78,5/92,0 (+4,8%/+3,7%). Gold at 1598 after 1555 (+2,8%). Copper at 347 from 332 (+4,5%). CRB closes 278,0 from 272,0 (+2,2%).

Baltic Dry up 10 to 1004, back over the 4-digit mark.

 

EUR 1,267 from 1,244

ECB deposits at EUR 782bn after EUR 773bn.

 

Greek bonds guesstimates: Greece down 50 bp with 2023s at 26% from 26.50% and 2042s at 22% from 22.50%.

(20.25% and 16.75% before the first election round).

 

All levels COB 17:30 CET

 

On the week (compared to Fri 22 Jun COB):

Another week, another story. Stop! It’s the same story, but just told differently, over and over… Friday had seen some of the spirit “Shot Down in Flames” to start the day as the Spanish banking bail-out doubts were abounding (Bunds +5 / Spain -25 / Stoxx -0.6%). Following a European quartet meeting in Rome and a EUR 120bn infra pack announcement, things closed about ok, especially for Spain, which staged a one-man rally in an empty Friday afternoon market. The whole thing was of course reversed by Monday and Risk went tanking, hoping for someone to “Catch My Fall ” (Bunds -12 / Spain +29 / Stoxx -2.5%). Eventually, Cypriot and Spanish bail-out demands went official. As things can’t always be wholly manic-depressive all times, markets too a breather on Tuesday in a “Quiet Times” session, which for once was rather risk neutral, although things went soft into the close (Bunds +4 / Spain +28 / Stoxx -0.2%). Ahead of the EU summit, it seemed that everyone wanted not to “Never Make Your Move Too Soon” on Wednesday, with exception of equities, which felt that something good would certainly happen (Bunds +6 / Spain +4 / Stoxx +1.6%). As, first EU titbits were only to appear later at night, yesterday was a day with “Nothing to Say”, at least not much (Bunds -6 / Spain unch / Stoxx -0.2%).

 

Unimaginable as this may seem, at first glance, nothing happened in European bonds… Just kidding. But just half.

On the week, we’d note that the trend of 10 YRS EGB softening across the board has continued. While stress behaviour still regularly yields a retreat into Core EZ bonds, there’s an underlying heaviness in here for the moment. Best and sole performer of the week in absolute and relative terms? Belgium. Caught between the Soft Core and the Periphery, it managed to issue well on Monday, is mostly out of the limelight, except when hosting all these summits and, if my numbers are right, has now covered 72% of its funding needs with some EUR 9bn to go for the rest of the year).

Sad looser left on the side of the road: the Soft Core, when considering that on a week on week basis, the wings didn’t really move. Tout ça pour ça???

With regards to the Periphery, total meltdown risk seems averted, but given what has been put on the table, the market reaction, as seen by this week’s closing levels, is far from being convinced yet.

Comeback kid of the week? The EUR, considering the 300 pip rally today.

 

10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,58% (unch); Luxembourg 1,91% (+1); Swaps 2,02% (+4); Finland 2,04% (+1); Netherlands 2,09% (+0); EU 2,40% (+2);Austria 2,52% (+11); EIB 2,61% (+3); France 2,68% (+9); EFSF 2,72% (unch); Belgium 3,18% (-6); Italy 5,78% (+1); Spain 6,29% (-2).

 

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 33bp (+1); Swaps 44bp (+4); Finland 40bp (-5); Netherlands 51bp (+0); EU 82bp (+2); Austria 94bp (+11); EIB 103bp (+3); France 110bp (+9); EFSF 114bp (unch); Belgium 160bp (-6); Italy 420bp (+1); Spain 471bp (-2).

 

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 47bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS 69bp (+5,0) 10-30 YRS 30bp (+4,0).

2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,12% (-1) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,61% (-3), on the week.

Swiss 2-years flat at -0.28%, but having traded a record low -0.38% yesterday.

 

Main at 166 from 170 (2,4% tighter); Financials at 261 after 276 (5,4% tighter). SovX at 282 from 295. Cross at 662 from 680.

 

Stoxx Futures a


Mainstream Economics is a Cult

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 09:16 AM PDT

 

Neoclassical Economics Is Based on Myth

Neoclassical economics is a cult which ignores reality in favor of shared myths.

Economics professor Michael Hudson writes:

[One Nobel prize winning economist stated,]  “In pointing out the consequences of a set of abstract assumptions, one need not be committed unduly as to the relation between reality and these assumptions.”

 

This attitude did not deter him from drawing policy conclusions affecting the material world in which real people live....

 

Typical of this now widespread attitude is the textbook Microeconomics by William Vickery, winner of the 1997 Nobel Economics Prize:

“Economic theory proper, indeed, is nothing more than a system of logical relations between certain sets of assumptions and the conclusions derived from them… The validity of a theory proper does not depend on the correspondence or lack of it between the assumptions of the theory or its conclusions and observations in the real world.  A theory as an internally consistent system is valid if the conclusions follow logically from its premises, and the fact that neither the premises nor the conclusions correspond to reality may show that the theory is not very useful, but does not invalidate it. In any pure theory, all propositions are essentially tautological, in the sense that the results are implicit in the assumptions made.”

Such disdain for empirical verification is not found in the physical sciences.

http://i.imgur.com/aoSKU.jpg"Our models show there is no chance of water"

Neoclassical economists created the mega-banks, thinking that bigger was better.  They pretend that it's better to help the big banks than the people, debt doesn't existhigh levels of leverage are good, artificially low interest rates are fine, bubbles are great, fraud should be covered up, and insolvent institutions propped up.

Indeed, even after a brief period of questioning their myths - after the 2008 economic crisis proved their core assumptions wrong - they have quickly regressed into their old ways.

 Government Economic Leaders Surprised that Real World Isnt Responding to their Magic Pixie Dust

Economics professor Steve Keen notes:

Neoclassical economics has become a religion.  Because it has a mathematical veneer, and I emphasize the word veneer, they actually believe it’s true. Once you believe something is true, you’re locked into its way of thinking unless there’s something that can break in from the outside and destroy that confidence.

Paul Heyne said:

The arguments of economists legitimate social and economic arrangements by providing these arrangements with quasi-religious justification. Economists are thus doing theology while for the most part unaware of that fact.

Economics professor Bill Black told me:

The amount of fraud that drove the Wall Street bubble and its collapse and caused the Great Depression is contested [keep reading to see what Black means]. The Pecora investigation found widespread manipulation of earnings, conflicts of interest, and insider abuse by the nation’s most elite financial leaders. John Kenneth Galbraith’s work documented these abuses. Theoclassical economic accounts, however, ignore or excuse these abuses.

Black explains:

[Neoclassical economists believed that] fraud is impossible because securities markets are “efficient” and act as if they were guided by an “invisible hand.” Markets cannot be efficient if there is accounting control fraud, so we know (on the basis of circular reasoning) that securities fraud cannot exist. Indeed, when [mainstream economists] try to explain why the securities markets automatically exclude frauds their faith-based logic becomes even more humorous.

Alex Andrews notes in the Guardian:

Greenspan's confession [that his assumption that fraud is not a big problem for the economy was totally wrong] was seen by many for precisely what it was: a crisis of faith, the faith that unrestricted free markets would always act benevolently. [Note: As we show below, neoclassical economists do not really believe in free markets.  As such, they are blind cultists, rather than thinking people of faith.] It revealed what a few had been arguing for some time, that the character of neoliberal economics is essentially religious. This is counter-intuitive. Surely the policy of Greenspan and others is based on an understanding of the science of economics, particularly in the mainstream neoclassical form that is most often taught in universities around the world? It is certainly the case that neoclassical economics appears scientific. This is because it deploys huge quantities of complex mathematics, giving it the veneer of being what it has long hoped to be, a kind of social physics.

 

***

 

Equations prove free markets work, but only in a sterile world of mathematical abstraction that relies on ridiculous assumptions such as perfectly competitive markets. It is little surprise then that Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, writing in the journal Nature, calls for a "scientific revolution" in economics.

 

Once economics loses its status as science, its religious aspects become more obvious. Robert H Nelson has spent his career trying to show that economics is religious in character. Through "the gospel of efficiency" after the second world war, Nelson argues that economists promised progress, a removal of sin, heaven on earth. Economists play the role of priests, defining good and bad behaviours that make this salvation possible.

 

***

 

It is clear that this is a market theodicy, justifying the ways of the market to men. When neoliberal politicians warn against governments interfering in the market, lest the irrational and temporary will of the electorate interfere with the "spontaneous order" of markets, this now seems like a dire warning that we must not "play God" and attempt to control the mysteries of the market that in our finitude, our "bounded rationality", we cannot properly fathom.

Harpers noted in 2005 that neoclassical economics - underneath it's veneer of math and science - is actually a twisted form of Protestant religion in disguise:

Economics, as channeled by its popular avatars in media and politics, is the cosmology and the theodicy of our contemporary culture. More than religion itself, more than literature, more than cable television, it is economics that offers the dominant creation narrative of our society, depicting the relation of each of us to the universe we inhabit, the relation of human beings to God. And the story it tells is a marvelous one. In it an enormous multitude of strangers, all individuals, all striving alone, are nevertheless all bound together in a beautiful and natural pattern of existence: the market. This understanding of markets—not as artifacts of human civilization but as phenomena of nature—now serves as the unquestioned foundation of nearly all political and social debate.

 

***

 

Economics departments around the world are overwhelmingly populated by economists of one particular stripe. Within the field they are called “neoclassical” economists, and their approach to the discipline was developed over the course of the nineteenth century.

 

***

 

Neoclassical economics tends to downplay the importance of human institutions, seeing instead a system of flows and exchanges that are governed by an inherent equilibrium. Predicated on the belief that markets operate in a scientifically knowable fashion, it sees them as self-regulating mathematical miracles, as delicate ecosystems best left alone.

 

If there is a whiff of creationism around this idea, it is no accident. By the time the term “economics” first emerged, in the 1870s, it was evangelical Christianity that had done the most to spur the field on toward its present scientific self-certainty.

 

When evangelical Christianity first grew into a powerful movement, between 1800 and 1850, studies of wealth and trade were called “political economy.” The two books at the center of this new learning were Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations (1776) and David Ricardo’s Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817).

 

***

 

Ricardo concluded that the interests of different groups within an economy—owners, investors, renters, laborers—would always be in conflict with one another. Ricardo’s credibility with the capitalists was unquestionable: he was not a philosopher like Adam Smith but a successful stockbroker who had retired young on his earnings. But his view of capitalism made it seem that a harmonious society was a thing of the past: class conflict was part of the modern world, and the gentle old England of squire and farmer was over.

 

The group that bridled most against these pessimistic elements of Smith and Ricardo was the evangelicals. These were middle-class reformers who wanted to reshape Protestant doctrine. For them it was unthinkable that capitalism led to class conflict, for that would mean that God had created a world at war with itself. The evangelicals believed in a providential God, one who built a logical and orderly universe, and they saw the new industrial economy as a fulfillment of God’s plan. The free market, they believed, was a perfectly designed instrument to reward good Christian behavior and to punish and humiliate the unrepentant.

 

At the center of this early evangelical doctrine was the idea of original sin: we were all born stained by corruption and fleshly desire, and the true purpose of earthly life was to redeem this. The trials of economic life—the sweat of hard labor, the fear of poverty, the self-denial involved in saving—were earthly tests of sinfulness and virtue. While evangelicals believed salvation was ultimately possible only through conversion and faith, they saw the pain of earthly life as means of atonement for original sin.  

 

***

 

The extreme among them urged mortification of the flesh and would scold anyone who took pleasure in food, drink, or good company. Moreover, they regarded poverty as part of a divine program. Evangelicals interpreted the mental anguish of poverty and debt, and the physical agony of hunger or cold, as natural spurs to prick the conscience of sinners. They believed that the suffering of the poor would provoke remorse, reflection, and ultimately the conversion that would change their fate. In other words, poor people were poor for a reason, and helping them out of poverty would endanger their mortal souls. It was the evangelicals who began to see the business mogul as an heroic figure, his wealth a triumph of righteous will. The stockbroker, who to Adam Smith had been a suspicious and somewhat twisted character, was for nineteenth-century evangelicals a spiritual victor.

 

By the 1820s evangelicals were a dominant force in British economic policy.

 

***

 

Victorian evangelicals took a similar approach to the crisis in Ireland between 1845 and 1850 ...the potato famine.

 

***

 

The phrase “political economy” itself began to connote a cruel disregard for human suffering. And so a generation later, when the next phase of capitalist boosterism emerged, the term “political economy” was simply junked. The new field was called “economics.” What had got the political economists into trouble a generation before was the perception, from a public dominated by Dickens readers, that “political economy” was mostly about politics—about imposing a zealous ideology of the market. Economics was devised, instead, as a science, a field of objective knowledge with iron mathematical laws. Remodeling economics along the lines of physics insulated the new discipline from any charges filed on moral or sentimental grounds. William Stanley Jevons made this case in 1871, comparing the “Theory of Economy” to “the science of Statical Mechanics” (i.e., physics) and arguing that “the Laws of Exchange” in the marketplace “resemble the Laws of Equilibrium.”

 

***

 

Today we often think of science and religion as standing in opposition, but the “scientific” turn made by Jevons and his fellows only served to enshrine the faith of their evangelical predecessors. The evangelicals believed that the market was a divine system, guided by spiritual laws. The “scientific” economists saw the market as a natural system, a principle of equilibrium produced in the balance of individual souls.

 

***

 

U.S. policy debate, both in Congress and in the press, proceeds today as if the neoclassical theory of the free market were incontrovertible, endorsed by science and ordained by God. But markets are not spontaneous features of nature; they are creations of human civilization, like, for example, skating rinks.

 

***

 

The claim that markets are products of higher-order law, products of nature or of divine will, simply lends legitimacy to one particularly extreme view of politics and society.

Similarly, Philip Pilkington writes:

Taken at a very base level, the notion that there is an ‘invisible hand’ that irons out inconsistencies and increases the efficiency of the production and circulation of goods is basically the same claim that Hegel made about history being moved by a force called Reason. (Indeed, Adam Smith was one of Hegel’s references, perhaps even one of his key references). This claim, when made by either Smith or Hegel, can be traced back in turn to the Protestant tradition of predestination. The reasoning here is absolutely metaphysical and like the metaphysicians of yore it carries with it a moral lesson to be passed on to disciples.

 

***

 

Economists make huge generalisations about the people they study. They assume, for example, a single consumer that consumes the same goods and then projects this onto all consumers.

 

This is pure metaphysical reasoning. The economists concoct an idea in their heads which they then use to construct a theoretical edifice which falls apart when the original idea is shown to be false. They then derive a sort of ‘moral code’ from this construct which tells people how they should behave. In this case, students are told that this is how people should behave if they are to produce efficiently and effectively.

 

How is this different from the shaman who makes up a myth about the origins of the tribe and then derives moral lessons from this myth that he then teaches to the tribes-people? It’s not.

 

***

 

Economic ideas – such as the myth of the ‘single consumer’ – serve the function of ‘limiting principles’ for the way people in our contemporary society are allowed to think about the world. To think outside these ‘symbolic boundaries’ is not to be taken seriously. And yet, these boundaries are simply metaphysical constructs built up by economists and then disseminated to the population at large as a type of moral system.

 

Economics, then, is the totem – its simple moral lessons, the taboos. And this is how we in the modern world organise our thoughts and actions.

 

***

 

Adam Smith’s ‘hidden hand’ – is the direct descendent of Protestant predestination.

 

***

 

Economics has become, once again, a metaphysical doctrine boiled down to a few crass moralisms that are spoon-fed to the educated public.

 

***

 

It is really a subtle way of telling people what to do and assuring them that such authority is founded on some sort of Natural or Divine Law.

 

***

 

In policy circles today economists play the role of the court-priest. They deploy their esoteric and impenetrable ‘knowledge’ to tell policymakers what they should and should not do. To constrain economists to simply explain how the system works is to give them a role closer to that of the lawyer. The policymaker consults a lawyer to figure out what he or she can or cannot do and then makes a decision from there. Similarly, he or she might consult the economist, if the latter was seen as an operational role rather than as that of a seer.

 

This would, of course, threaten the role of the economist in society today. One can imagine that it is rather nice to be thought of as a divine, laying down metaphysical principles about the ‘inner’ workings of the world and deriving from these timeless truths and moral certainties that we mere mortals can then submit to. So, one can also imagine that these preachers and their flocks will respond to such a challenge with moral outrage. It is the outrage of a priest who has been told that his God is an invention, concocted in his mind to be used as leverage over his fellow men.

Neoclassical Economists Do NOT Believe in a Free Market

While many of the above quotes claim that neoclassical economists worship the free market, this is not actually true.

As I’ve previously noted:

When Mahatma Gandhi was asked what he thought about Western civilization, he answered:

I think it would be a good idea.

I feel the same way about free market capitalism.

 

It would be a good idea, but it is not what we have now. Instead, we have either socialism, fascism or a type of looting.

 

If people want to criticize capitalism and propose an alternative, that is fine . . . but only if they understand what free market capitalism is and acknowledge that America has not practiced free market capitalism for some time.

 

***

 

People pointing to the Western economies and saying that capitalism doesn’t work is as incorrect as pointing to Stalin’s murder of millions of innocent people and blaming it on socialism. Without the government’s creation of the too big to fail banks, Fed’s intervention in interest rates and the markets, government-created moral hazard emboldening casino-style speculation, corruption of government officials, creation of a system of government-sponsored rating agencies which had at its core a model of bribery, and other government-induced distortions of the free market, things wouldn’t have gotten nearly as bad.

 

***

 

Being against capitalism because of the mess we’ve gotten in would be like Gandhi saying that he is against Western civilization because of the way the British behaved towards India.

And - in the same way that the village shaman was often enlisted to promote and justify the chief's power as being divinely-ordained and unquestionable, many of today's neoclassical economists justify the acts of the ruling political class as being "economically sound", even when such acts are antithetical to free market economics.

Postscript 1:  Of course, for free market economics to become a real science, it will have to take into account realities such as imperfect information, externalities, the ability of powerful criminals to warp markets, people's behavioral idiosyncrasies  and other real world factors.

Postscript 2:  Just as it is unfair to

Guest Post: Whitewashing The Economic Establishment

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 07:58 AM PDT

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Whitewashing The Economic Establishment

Brad DeLong makes an odd claim:

So the big lesson is simple: trust those who work in the tradition of Walter Bagehot, Hyman Minsky, and Charles Kindleberger. That means trusting economists like Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Gary Gorton, Carmen Reinhart, Ken Rogoff, Raghuram Rajan, Larry Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Olivier Blanchard, and their peers. Just as they got the recent past right, so they are the ones most likely to get the distribution of possible futures right.

Larry Summers? If we're going to base our economic policy on trusting in Larry Summers, should we not reappoint Greenspan as Fed Chairman? Or — better yet — appoint Charles Ponzi as head of the SEC? Or a fox to guard the henhouse? Or a tax cheat as Treasury Secretary? Or a war criminal as a peace ambassador? (Yes — reality is more surreal than anything I could imagine).

The bigger point though, as Steve Keen and Randall Wray have alluded to, is that DeLong's list is the left-wing of the neoclassical school of economics — all the same people who (to a greater or lesser extent) believed that we were in a Great Moderation, and that thanks to the wonders of modernity we had escaped the old world of depressions and mass unemployment. People to whom this depression — judging by their pre-2008 output — was something of a surprise.

Now the left-wing neoclassicists may have done less badly than the right-wing neoclassicists Fama, Cochrane and Greenspan, but that's not saying much. Steve Keen pointed out:

People like Wynne Godley, Ann Pettifors, Randall Wray, Nouriel Roubini, Dean Baker, Peter Schiff and I had spent years warning that a huge crisis was coming, and had a variety of debt-based explanations as to why it was inevitable. By then, Godley, Wray and I and many other Post Keynesian economists had spent decades imbibing and developing the work of Hyman Minsky.

To my knowledge, of Delong's motley crew, only Raghuram Rajan was in print with any warnings of an imminent crisis before it began.

DeLong is, in my view, trying to whitewash his contemporaries who did not see the crisis coming, and inaccurately trying to associate them with Hyman Minsky whose theory of debt deflation anticipated many dimensions of the crisis. Adding insult to injury, DeLong seems unwilling to credit those like Schiff and Keen (not to mention Ron Paul) who saw the housing bubble and the excessive debt mountain for what it was — a disaster waiting to happen.

The most disturbing thing about his thesis is that all of the left-neoclassicists he is trying to whitewash have not really been very right about the last four years at all, as DeLong freely admits:

The third surprise, however, may be the most interesting. Back in March 2009, the Nobel laureate Robert Lucas confidently predicted that the US economy would be back to normal within three years. A normal US economy has a short-term nominal interest rate of 4%. Since the 10-year US Treasury bond rate tends to be one percentage point above the average of expected future short-term interest rates over the next decade, even the expectation of five years of deep depression and near-zero short-term interest rates should not push the 10-year Treasury rate below 3%.

Yet we are supposed to take seriously the widely proposed solution? Throw money at the problem, and assume that just by raising aggregate demand all the other problems will just go away?

As I wrote back in August 2011:

These troubles are non-monetary: military overspending, political and financial corruption, public indebtedness, withering infrastructure, oil dependence, deindustrialisation, the withered remains of multiple bubbles, bailout culture, systemic fragility, and so forth.

These problems won't just go away — throwing money around may boost figures in the short term, but the underlying problems will remain.

I believe that the only real way out is to unleash the free market and the spirit of entrepreneurialism. And the only way to do that is to end corporate welfare, end the bailouts (let failed institutions fail), end American imperialism, and slash barriers to entry. Certainly, cleaning up the profligate financial sector would help too (perhaps mandatory gladiatorial sentences for financial crimes would help? No more paying £200 million for manipulating a $350 trillion market — fight a lion in the arena instead!), as would incentives to create the infrastructure people need, and move toward energy independence, green energy and reindustrialisation.

Then again, I suppose there is a silver lining to this cloud. The wronger the establishment are in the long run, the more people will look for new economic horizons.


Triple Lutz Report–Join Me In LV For Freedom Fest-The Obamacare Big Deal–Episode 197

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 07:34 AM PDT

www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com presents

Freedom Fest 2012 is being held in Las Vegas, Nevada at Bally's Hotel and Casino. If you're planning to attend, please send me an email at kl@kerrylutz.com. We're having a get together, with Robert Ian and other frequent guests of the show. There are at least 10 people attending Freedom Fest who make frequent appearances on the Financial Survival Network. We'll either have a lunch or a happy hour with drinks and hors d'oeuvres.

Obamacare, if you haven't heard yet, has been affirmed by the Supreme Court. In retrospect it's not going to matter unless people finally get it through their heads that the US is losing its last vestiges of freedom. If it becomes a rallying cry and a battlefront in the war to take back our freedoms, then it will serve a constructive purpose. But if people keep watching American Idol and eating their junk food, then things will continue to get far worse, and the eventual collapse will just come all that much faster. We'll know soon enough.

See you in Las Vegas, July 11 through July 14!

Go to www.FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com for the latest info on the economy and precious metals markets.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Why Germany&#039;s TARGET2-Based Eurozone Preservation Mechanism Is Merely A Ticking Inflationary Timebomb

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 07:04 AM PDT

We have covered the topic of the German TARGET2 imbalances previously, both from the perspective of what catalysts can lead the Bundesbank to suffering massive losses (the one most widely agreed upon being a collapse of the Eurozone, which explains why even discussions of that contingency are prohibited in Europe), from the perspective of its being an indirect current account deficit funding mechanism, and from the perspective of what is the maximum size TARGET2 imbalances, funded primarily by the Bundesbank, can grow to before eventually causing irreperable damage to the Bundesbank. Still, there appears to be ongoing mass confusion about the topic, with numerous economists proposing contradictory theories, all of which supposedly rely on traditional economic models. Today, to provide some additional and much needed color, we once again revisit the topic of TARGET2, and this time we look at arguably the most critical question: what happens when the TARGET2 imbalance bubble ultimately pops. And here is where the true cost to Germans becomes apparent, because there is no such thing as a "borrowing from the future" free lunch. Which is precisely what TARGET2 does, only instead of a direct cost, the post-TARGET2 world will result in the now traditional indirect cost of all monetary experiments gone awry: runaway inflation.

As Goldman summarizes:

Who ultimately pays for TARGET2 losses? Higher inflation part of the bill

...

[T]he important point in the context of the financial risk for Germany from the growing TARGET2 imbalances is that, in the event of a break-up of the Euro area, the price paid would not necessarily be in the form of a massive recapitalisation of the Bundesbank, which could endanger the solvency of the German government itself. Rather, it would come in the form of higher inflation, as Germany faced the financial costs of the Bundesbank's rising net claims vis-à- vis the other Euro area central banks.

In other words, if Goldman sought to appease Germans' fears about the aftermath of providing what effectively equates to "costless" bailouts, in the form current account deficit funding for the PIIGS, by telling them the final cost may well be a tide of runaway inflation, one which may come far sooner than most expect, we are skeptical they have succeeded.

Full report from Goldman:

Assessing the financial risks of TARGET 2 for Germany

As Germany recorded current account surpluses from the early 2000s, its financial exposure to the rest of the world rose. While Germany's net international investment position (NIIP) was close to zero at the turn of the century, it had risen sharply to close to €1trn by 2011. This significant rise in German net foreign asset ownership also necessarily implied an accumulation of the financial risks associated with these assets. However, both the ownership and composition of these net claims against the rest of the world have changed significantly over time: banks and other financial institutions have reduced their net holdings of foreign assets substantially since the start of the crisis in 2007, while there has been a sharp increase in the public sector's foreign exposure.

The rise in the net foreign asset position of the public sector has taken place through two channels:

  • The financial help provided to the Euro area periphery through the EFSF and—in the case of the first Greek programme—other government-owned institutions has led to a direct increase in financial exposure for the German government.
  • The other, and more relevant channel in terms of the volumes involved, has been the Bundesbank's TARGET2 claims against the Eurosystem.

It is thereby no coincidence that the increase in net foreign assets on the Bundesbank's balance sheet roughly matches the decline seen on banks' balance sheets. Thus, the TARGET2 imbalances, at least so far, have mainly replaced financial risk that was previously sitting on private-sector balance sheets.

Further movement of capital from the periphery to Germany—for example, as peripheral households transfer deposits to Germany—would imply additional, genuinely new external financial risk for Germany, reflected in a further rise in TARGET2 claims.

But it is important to bear in mind when assessing Germany's external financial risk that, as a central bank, the Bundesbank's ability to deal with financial losses incurred as a result of these exposures is of a different character to the ability of the private sector or government. In particular, the operational capacity of the Bundesbank would not necessarily be significantly impaired even if it were forced to run temporarily with significant negative equity.

A current account surplus implies more foreign assets

Throughout the 1980s, Germany recorded a rising current account surplus (see Chart 1). This surplus quickly turned into a deficit as the reunification boom led to a sharp increase in imports. It took until 2001 before this current account deficit was turned back into a surplus. The combination of weak domestic demand, a recovery in competitiveness and strong external demand then pushed the current account surplus to a record high of around 7.5% of GDP in 2007.

As a consequence of the growing current account surpluses recorded over the past ten years, Germany net international investment position (the difference between all foreign assets owned by the German private and government sector and German assets owned by foreigners) has increased sharply (see Chart 2). At the end of 2011 Germany's NIIP stood at close to €1trn.

The assets that make up Germany's NIIP include bonds (whether issued by governments or corporates), loans, stocks and foreign direct investment. But regardless of the specific characteristic of the underlying asset, they all also represent a financial risk to some degree, in the  sense that the return on these assets is not certain—and could even be zero.

Changes in sectoral risk exposure to the periphery

The aggregate figures for the NIIP blur the significant differences that exist at the sectoral level. Chart 3 shows the NIIP broken down into different sectors, such as Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) (which are mostly commercial banks), non-financial corporates and private households, the government and the Bundesbank.

The chart illustrates three noteworthy points:

  • Banks/MFIs have reduced their NIIP sharply. German banks' NIIP rose from a negative -€300bn in the middle of 2000 to +€520bn by the end of 2008. Since then, their NIIP has declined to €170bn at the end of last year. Meanwhile, German banks' gross credit claims against the periphery have declined from almost €600bn to around €300bn (Chart 4).
  • Corporates and private households have seen their NIIP increase further during the crisis. Companies and private households represent the bulk of Germany's NIIP. Roughly 60% of these assets (€700bn) are portfolio investments, 30% are direct investments, and 10% are lending and deposits held at foreign banks (Chart 5).
  • Foreigners hold a significant share of Germany's public debt. The German government sector (all levels, excluding Bundesbank) was indebted on a net basis vis-à-vis the rest of the world by more than €1trn at the end of last year.

Exposure to the periphery

Looking at Germany's country-specific exposure, German net investment in peripheral economies stood at around €1trn at the beginning of 2012, the bulk of which is concentrated in Italy, Spain and Ireland (Chart 6 shows the net investment of all sectors vis-à-vis the countries in the  periphery). Note, however, that these figures do not reflect the net claims of the Bundesbank vis-à-vis the Eurosystem due to TARGET2 imbalances. As a claim on the ECB rather than a specific country, these claims are not against a specific country and are therefore recordedas net investment into the Euro area.

Most German investment in the peripheral countries reflects ownership of companies or production facilities located there. Roughly a third of the net investment in the periphery is lending (Chart 7). Lastly, we take a look at bank lending to peripheral countries (Chart 4). While Germany's  overall financial exposure to the periphery has been broadly stable, banks have reduced it significantly since the beginning of the crisis.

Pulling all these data together, we can see a clear shift in the composition of Germany's net foreign asset position: financial institutions have sharply reduced their exposure to the periphery , while the public sector has increased its claims significantly. The main channel through which this transfer of risk has taken place has been the TARGET2 system.

TARGET2 imbalances are on the rise

Commercial banks use the so-called TARGET2 system to facilitate money transfers across the Euro area. One crucial feature of TARGET2 is that claims between national central banks resulting from cross-border money flows between commercial banks are not settled. If, for example, a commercial bank in Greece wants to transfer money to a German bank, the Bank of Greece simply asks the Bundesbank to credit the account of the German commercial bank with that amount and at the same time debit the account of the Bank of Greece with the same amount. As a central bank, there is no funding required for the Bundesbank in this operation. The Bundesbank simply 'prints' the money it credits to the account of the German commercial bank.

Before the crisis, flows between the periphery and Germany were broadly balanced. Banks and nonfinancial corporates borrowed from German banks and companies in order to finance, in large part, the trade deficit the periphery held with Germany. This implied that money flowed from the periphery to Germany (to pay the bill for imports) and from Germany to the periphery (to provide a credit such that the bill could be paid). But as German banks reduced their lending to the periphery on account of concerns about counterparty risk (Chart 4), capital flows have become a one-way street. Consequently, the net claims of the Bundesbank against the Eurosystem have risen sharply (Chart 8).

What are the financial risks from TARGET2?

In assessing the financial risk stemming from the increase in the net claims of the Bundesbank against the Eurosystem—the TARGET2  imbalances—it is important to bear in mind that, at least so far, they mostly replace debt held by German banks. Put differently, the financial risk for the country as a whole has not changed significantly on the back of the rising net claims of the Bundesbank.

This may no longer be the case, however, once rising net claims reflect not only normal commercial and investment activities, but rather deposit flight from the periphery to Germany. So far, there is no real evidence that private households or companies are shifting their deposits to Germany in a significant way. But a genuine deposit flight from the periphery to Germany would lead to a significant increase in the  Bundesbank's net claims.

After all, peripheral private households alone hold more than €1.5trn of deposits. To be sure, the Bundesbank's rising net claims vis-à-vis the Eurosystem would only represent a financial risk if a country were to leave the Euro area. Moreover, the losses of the Eurosystem are shared among all remaining countries. Thus, the financial risk for Germany has actually been reduced, as potential private losses have been replaced by  losses that will be shared by the Eurosystem. However, in the event of a break-up of the Euro area, the losses from the Bundesbank's net claims would materialise on the Bundesbank's balance sheet alone.

Bundesbank operational effectiveness not endangered by potential losses

At this point, it is not possible to calculate the exact size of the Bundesbank's potential losses in the event of a complete break-up of the Euro area. First, the amount would depend on how much further net claims rise. Second, it is not clear how much of these claims would need to be written down. Arguably, other national central banks/governments would have little incentive, or the economic means, to honour any of these liabilities. But depending on the circumstances of the break-up some mutual agreement about a haircut could be found.

That said, even though we do not know ex ante the size of the losses the Bundesbank faces, we can say that, in principle, these losses would not impair its ability to operate monetary policy. Put differently, it is not the case that the Bundesbank would first need to be recapitalised before it could once again conduct monetary policy at the national level. Indeed, there are several examples of central banks that have operated with negative equity and have been able to maintain price stability. The Bundesbank could, for example, simply insert a claim against the German government on the asset side of its balance sheet in order to maintain its balance sheet in balance in an accounting sense.

Who ultimately pays for TARGET2 losses? Higher inflation part of the bill

This does not mean that potential TARGET2 losses would not imply a significant challenge to the Bundesbank. Its first challenge would be to stabilise inflation expectations. Expectations about future price developments play a crucial role in the inflation process: if economic agents were to expect, for whatever reason, an increase in prices and adjust their economic decisions accordingly, expectations would become self-fulfilling. This is why central banks in general monitor inflation expectations carefully.

How would inflation expectations react if the Bundesbank were to incur significant losses and had to operate with negative equity? Again, there is no easy answer to this but, according to the so-called fiscal theory of the price level, the credibility of a central bank also depends on its solvency. The Bundesbank's solvency would be questioned if the losses exceeded the net present value of its future income (seignorage). A backof-the-envelope calculation of this net present value suggests the Bundesbank has economic capital of around €2trn. Thus, the Bundesbank has significant capacity to absorb losses before endangering its ability to guarantee price stability.

There is also a more mechanical way of assessing the potential inflation risk stemming from Bundesbank losses on the back of the TARGET2 imbalances. These imbalances are the result of rising deposits on the balance sheets of German commercial banks. These deposits ultimately represent a claim on German GDP, as the holders of the deposits could spend the money sitting in their accounts. Another way to look at this is that rising deposits at German banks imply that monetary aggregates are rising in relation to the underlying German economy.

Whether these deposits would be inflationary or not would depend on several factors—not least how quickly these deposits are spent. But it is clear that the greater the amount of deposits held by non-residents after the breakup, the greater the potential inflationary risk. A high degree of uncertainty surrounds all of this and it is not possible to be more precise about the potential inflationary implications. But the important point in the context of the financial risk for Germany from the growing TARGET2 imbalances is that, in the event of a break-up of the Euro area, the price paid would not necessarily be in the form of a massive recapitalisation of the Bundesbank, which could endanger the solvency of the  German government itself. Rather, it would come in the form of higher inflation, as Germany faced the financial costs of the Bundesbank's rising  net claims vis-à-vis the other Euro area central banks.


Gold &amp; the Worsening Deflation

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 06:40 AM PDT

The Gold Price has suffered as deflation begins. What comes next...?

read more


Three Super Marios, The Debt Monetization Game &amp; Gold

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 06:35 AM PDT

On the heels of a massive rally in stocks, oil & gold, on Friday, today Michael Pento, of Pento Portfolio Strategies, writes exclusively for King World News to let readers know about the 'Three Super Marios' and 'The Debt Monetization Game.' He also discussed gold and the mining shares, but first, here is what Pento wrote about what is happening with the Three Super Marios: "In the past few days there appears to have been a huge victory scored by Europe's three Italian Super-Marios. But appearances can be deceiving. Mario Balotelli scored two goals for Italy's Azzurri, in a victory against the Germans during Thursday's Euro 2012 semi-final Football game."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Further losses by the bank have been reported regarding their “London Whale.” Has JP Morgan been forced to sell-off major positions, including their short in silver? Probably.

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 04:35 AM PDT

Commercial Hedgers in Silver Market "Less-Short" Than in Last Thirty Years – Is JPMorgan a Catalyst?


Technical Market Report for June 30, 2012

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 04:31 AM PDT

Friday's large equity gains were credited to the largest dollar decline in months. Now if Germany will agree to pay everyone else's bills life will be good. The breadth indicators are going in the right direction.

Read More...


John Embry on Gold, Silver, Currencies and Commodities

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 04:16 AM PDT

The Hera Research Newsletter is pleased to present the following insightful interview with John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of Sprott Asset Management LP, where he plays an instrumental role in the corporate and investment policy of the firm. Mr. Embry, who is a world renowned expert on the gold market and on gold and precious metals mining shares, currently focuses on the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund. Mr. Embry has researched the gold sector since 1963 and has more than thirty years of industry experience as a portfolio management specialist.


Gold Stock Investors Need to Understand Basic Geology

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 03:57 AM PDT

Chris Wilson, president of Exploration Alliance, a niche consulting group, believes education is an investment basic. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Wilson shares his guidelines for winnowing out the crowded junior mining sector to find the companies worth serious investigation and urges investors to know their porphyries from their narrow veins.   The Gold Report: Chris, you have described the junior mining industry as being "in disarray." Do you have any ideas for investors who might want to participate in the space, but may be a bit confused or discouraged?


Gold and Silver Metals Mining Stocks: Long- and Short-Term Outlook

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 03:44 AM PDT

Today’s market session is very volatile, not only in case of euro, dollar and stock indices, but also in case of precious metals. The rally in the mining stocks is much less significant than one might expect based on gold’s and stocks’ rally. Should this be of concern to precious metals investors?


Garnering Gold Nuggets From Financial Crisis Investing

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 03:35 AM PDT

“A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers…. “‘Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.’


This Past Week in Gold

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 03:09 AM PDT

Summary: Long term - on major sell signal. Short term - on sell signals. Counter trend set ups are tradable if risks are manageable.

Read More...


Where was the gold?

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 02:00 AM PDT

I am an avid reader of monetary history. Of late I have been focusing on the monetary events of the 1920s and 1930s. By learning from the maelstrom that riled the global financial scene during those ...


When the Bald Tire Blows

Posted: 30 Jun 2012 01:00 AM PDT

Dave Gonigam – June 30, 2012

As the second quarter draws to a close, we're tempted to paraphrase Winston Churchill: "Never have so many markets rallied so hard on such little news."

The "news" was another Fix-A-Flat patch on the bald tire known as the eurozone. The patch buys a few more months (or weeks) before the whole thing flies apart… which was enough for 278 Dow points yesterday, and a staggering 9% jump in oil.

We begin this week's 5 Things You Need to Know anticipating how the inevitable blowout will occur… while seeking moneymaking opportunity amid the shards of rubber scattered along the highway.

"You've got two sets of bankrupt institutions trading debt back and forth between themselves," says the one and only Doug Casey. Once eurozone banks and eurozone governments can no longer keep up the pretense, he figures it'll be bad news for the country that's Europe's biggest trading partner… and also the commodity-driven economies of Canada and Australia. Doug follows the bread crumbs here.

Build Generations of Lasting Wealth From These Radical Breakthroughs

On Wednesday, June 27, 2012, a tiny firm this expert tracked for over two years received a positive ruling from a government agency. His readers could've booked an enormous gain.

To get you in position to benefit from his next major win, you can join his VIP-level research service for almost 75% off the normal price. This rare offer closes at 5 p.m. on Monday, July 2.

Click here to read all the details and see a full picture of this expert's track record.

Get set for an early round of what Chris Mayer calls the "fire sale of the century." In January, Chris anticipated European banks unloading $1.8 trillion in assets over the next 10 years. With eurozone leaders' approval of the Spanish bank bailout yesterday, the process is now under way. Follow this link to learn why the banks are, as the expression goes, motivated sellers… and how you can pick up these prime assets for a song.

"A vast percentage of food stamps' money goes into the pockets of soda companies and snack food companies," according to a respected nutrition professor. Grocers and banks too. The $78 billion of taxpayer money spent each year on food stamps is big business for a host of zombie companies. You won't believe how much money certain Wal-Mart locations make off the program.

An obscure catalyst could propel gold to new heights come Jan. 1. Federal regulators are considering a change that would give banks a powerful incentive to load up on the metal. You can check out the particulars here to learn why one move by the bureaucrats would upend the conventional view of gold as a "risky asset."

The "Lost" Gold Bible Congress Never Wanted Anyone to See

"Locked away" for almost three decades. Kept virtually secret… until now.

You'll soon discover why all the secrecy surrounds this book… and why it would be to your great benefit to read this book now.

You'll also see why I'm doing everything in my power to get this book into your hands for FREE by following one simple step.

Click here to read more.

The big gains in weight-loss drugs are only getting started. On Wednesday, the FDA approved the first new weight-loss drug in 13 years. Arena Pharmaceuticals won approval for its drug Belviq. The company's stock is now up 259% from Patrick Cox's initial recommendation in Breakthrough Technology Alert. Patrick isn't resting on his laurels, though. He's already anticipating the next weight-loss breakthrough — which tackles obesity in a whole new way.

Through next Monday at 5:00 p.m., we're offering reduced-price access to Breakthrough Technology Alert. OK, that's an understatement. We're offering access to Patrick's premium advisory — one of our most expensive — at the lowest rate ever. You'll never have a better chance to put Patrick's path-breaking research to work in your portfolio.

Cheers,

Dave Gonigam

P.S. Next week in The 5 Min. Forecast, we'll take a midyear survey of the issues topmost in the minds of our editors. Without giving too much away… we can say you might expect some fireworks!


Hinde Capital&#039;s Ben Davies: &#039;Eyes wide shut&#039; as debt bloats government and destroys productivity

Posted: 29 Jun 2012 06:49 PM PDT

1:54p ICT Saturday, June 30, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies, who spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London last year, has written an incisive diagnosis of the economic decline of the United Kingdom and by extension most of the West, concluding that the solution requires separation of bank and state.

Among other things, Davies' commentary, a report in two parts titled "Eyes Wide Shut," remarks:

"The 'naughties' was a decade of growth, but this growth was not real. It was not a growth borne out of production from savings but a false growth borne out of rising debt levels. The U.K.'s seeming prosperity was, and still is, an illusion.

"The UK experienced a credit-fueled boom predicated on escalating private sector borrowing drawn primarily out of the equity of rising house prices. The tax revenues this spawned allowed the Labor government to grow the hand of the state, leading to an unsustainable growth in public-sector debt.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization
at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters

From a Company Press Release
November 22, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling.

"We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company."

Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered.

For the company's complete press release, please visit:

http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf



"Money was not earned; it was borrowed and spent on fancy clothes, smart cars, and endless electronic devices whose fads changed by the hour. The rise in public-sector employment as a share of the U.K. economy not only helped reinforce this debt binge, as the new gainfully employed enjoyed the fruits of their labor, but it no doubt did not harm New Labor's re-election potential. A prosperous electorate, after all, is a happy electorate.

"As dreary as it is to rehash the point that we have too much debt (I hear you yawning), it does not negate the reality that the U.K. has not managed to deleverage its burdens some four years since the 'Great Financial Crisis' began. This reality has very grave implications for the U.K. economy and its people. ...

"Mounting debt that has merely boosted government consumption and transfer payments has undermined overall productivity growth and has led to economic stagnation and loss of economic freedom. Unfortunately, we believe that a nation will tend to bankrupt its citizens before it bankrupts itself; especially under a fiat currency system when it has the temptation to fund a welfare state through continued deficit financing. This is the case in the U.K. today."

Elaborating on his diagnosis in an interview Thursday on CNBC --

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000098263&lay=1

-- Davies added: "We need monetary reform and out of that it begets political reform. ... We really have a state monopoly on the issuance of money ... and in that relationship with the banking sector, which is highly circular, you capitalize banks using sovereign debt." Davies advocates allowing competing forms of money, which implies, of course, terminating the Western central bank scheme of gold market manipulation.

Davies' commentary is a manifesto for limited government and greater individual economic freedom. It has been published in two parts with graphics in PDF format at the Hinde Capital Internet site.

Part I is here:

http://media.hindecapital.com/attachments/reports/full/129/original/Eyes...

And Part II is here:

http://media.hindecapital.com/attachments/reports/full/131/original/Eyes...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012
Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel
Toronto, Ontario, Canada
http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen...

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Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012
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http://www.neworleansconference.com/

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Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006:

http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

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Prophecy Platinum Announces Wellgreen Preliminary Economic Assessment:
38% Pre-Tax IRR, $3.0 Billion NPV, and a 37-Year Mine Life

Company Press Release

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) reports the results of an independent NI 43-101-compliant preliminary economic assessment for its fully owned Wellgreen nickel-copper-platinum group metals project in the Yukon Territory.

The independent assessment, prepared by Tetra Tech, evaluated a base case of an open-pit mine (with a mining rate of 111,500 tonnes per day), an on-site concentrator (with a milling rate of 32,000 tonnes per day), and an initial capital cost of $863 million. The project is expected to produce (in concentrate) 1.959 billion pounds of nickel, 2.058 billion pounds of copper, and 7.119 million ounces of platinum, palladium, and gold during a mine life of 37 years with an average strip ratio of 2.57.

The financial highlights of the preliminary economic assessment, shown in U.S. dollars, are as follows:

Payback period: 3.55 years
Initial capital investment: $863 million
IRR pre-tax (100% equity): 38 percent
NPV pre-tax (8% discount): $3 billion
Mine life: 37 years
Total mill feed: 405.3 million tonnes
Mill throughput: 32,000 tonnes per day

Prophecy Chairman John Lee says: "We are pleased with the preliminary economic assessment results. The numbers indicate that Wellgreen is one of most exciting mineral projects in the Yukon. The company is drilling to upgrade and expand the resource base. The infrastructure is excellent as the project is only 1,400 meters in altitude and 14 kilometers from the paved Alaska Highway, which leads to the Haines deep seaport. Discussions are under way with support from local stakeholders regarding permitting and logistics."

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_june18_prophecy_platinum_announces_res...



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