Gold World News Flash

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• Rickards on the History of the Gold Standard
• World Chaos Erupting as Governments & Institutions Collapse
• The Spailout Has ALREADY Failed ... Before the Ink Has Even Dried
• QE3? Dollar Collapse? – Kerry Lutz
• Americans Suffered Record Decline In Wealth During Recession: Report
• 10 Things That We Can Learn About Shortages And Preparation From The Economic Collapse In Greece
• Silver Update 6/11/12 Cry Argentina
• Sinclair sees U.S., gold banks battling central banks that need more gold and less paper
• Meetings set for June 15-20th in attempt to end financial crisis
• No need to save in dubious paper when gold is around, Turk tells KWN
• Why I Was Bearish on Gold for 19 years & Why The new Bull Market Would Begin From 1999
• Capital controls, visas contemplated in Europe if Greece drops euro
• The Economic Collapse Is Not A Single Event
• Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Metals Rise in a Flight to Safety – Refuse to Lose
• Gold Trades Bollinger to Bollinger
• EWI's Chief Analyst Hochberg Explains Recent Action in Stocks, U.S. Dollar and More
• Magnificent Mojo Mogambo (MMM)
• Stay The Course As Gold Continues Its Progressive March
• Buy A House and Put Nickels In It
• 70 FACTS OF DOOM
• Quote du Jour
• The June Issue of TDV Has Just Been Released
• Guest Post: Everything You Know About Markets Is Wrong?
• Jim Sinclair: ‘The End Is Not Near, It Is Here and Now’
• The Gold Price is in an Uptrend that will Sprint Toward $1,682 Once it Hits $1,618.13
• Down Payment for the Zombies
• Eric Sprott Interview
• Ten-Point Model for Picking Mining Winners: Dr. Michael Berry
• Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Erases Midday Losses and Ends Higher

Rickards on the History of the Gold Standard Posted: 11 Jun 2012 06:54 PM PDT

World Chaos Erupting as Governments & Institutions Collapse Posted: 11 Jun 2012 06:30 PM PDT With mounting worries about the financial systems of Europe and the US, 40 year veteran, Robert Fitzwilson wrote the following piece exclusively for King World News.  Fitzwilson is founder of The Portola Group, one of the premier boutique firms in the United States. Here are Fitzwilson's observations: "The financial markets continue to show extreme volatility as the various institutions and governments deal with the end of their respective roads. The announcement regarding the bailout of the Spanish banks created euphoria as markets opened around the world, but the euphoria quickly dissipated. Governments, economies and societies are converging on a common dead end, and it is a dead end of historic proportions." This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

The Spailout Has ALREADY Failed ... Before the Ink Has Even Dried Posted: 11 Jun 2012 05:40 PM PDT The market rallied for a couple of hours on news of the $100 billion dollar Spanish bailout (which everyone is calling the Spailout) … and then crashed. Bloomberg notes: U.S. stocks fell, following the biggest weekly rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index this year, as optimism over Spain’s bailout plan gave way to skepticism it will succeed in halting the debt crisis.   ***   “The Spanish deal is another Band-Aid,” said Matt McCormick, who helps oversee $6.2 billion at Bahl & Gaynor Inc. in Cincinnati. He spoke in a telephone interview. “Many investors are viewing this with skepticism. The problem is not going to be fixed by this amount. It’s not a solution, and people know the difference. Expect more volatility not less.” CNBC writes: Stocks accelerated their selloff in the final minutes of trading to close down more than 1 percent across the board Monday, as initial euphoria over Spain’s bank bailout fizzled and amid ongoing fears over a global economic slowdown.   ***   “A lot of people were concerned over the size of the bailout—we were expecting something closer to 150-200 billion [euros] and we only got 100 billion,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures. “So once traders started to digest [the news], they started to take profit or sell into that rally because they think that in another 3 to 6 months, Spain’s going to have to come back and ask for additional money.” Zero Hedge says: As evidenced by today’s reaction to the bailout, which had a half life of 2 hours, and was a complete failure in 6, the market is learning much, much faster than expected. This “Spanic” over the Spanish crisis is occurring even before the ink has dried. Nobel economist Joe Stiglitz pointed out the Ponzi scheme nature of the whole bailout discussion: Europe’s plan to lend money to Spain to heal some of its banks may not work because the government and the country’s lenders will in effect be propping each other up, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said.   “The system … is the Spanish government bails out Spanish banks, and Spanish banks bail out the Spanish government,” Stiglitz said in an interview.   ***   “It’s voodoo economics,” Stiglitz said in an interview on Friday, before the weekend deal to help Spain and its banks was sealed. “It is not going to work and it’s not working.” Credit Suisse’s William Porter writes: “It’s all about Spain”, so now we are cutting to the chase. Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay. But it enables the attempted finesse we describe below.   “Portugal cannot rescue Greece, Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot rescue Spain (as is surely about to become all too abundantly clear),  France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.” Or, the credit of the EFSF/ESM, if called upon to provide funds in large size, either calls upon the credit of Germany, or fails; i.e, it seems to us that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably  imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees. Porter says that either France of the EFSF/ESM will fail in 2 months. Press Association notes today: Spain became the fourth country after Greece, Ireland and Portugal to turn to the eurozone rescue fund for financial help. Of course (to no one’s surprise) Italy is next in the cross-hairs of debt crisis. Many of us have been forecasting how this was going to play out since 2008. For example, we noted in 2010: It is now common knowledge that there is a potential domino effect of European sovereign debt contagion in roughly the following order:   Greece → Ireland → Portugal → Spain → Italy → UK   ***   It is also now common knowledge that while Greece and Ireland have relatively small economies, there will be real trouble if the Spanish domino falls.   ***   As Nouriel Roubini wrote in February: But the real nightmare domino is Spain. Roubini refers to the Spanish debt problems as “the elephant in the room”.   “You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line.”   “But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out.”   With Spain, the first problem is the size of its public debt: €1 trillion. (Greece, by contrast, has €300 of public debt.) S pain also has €1 trillion in private foreign liabilities.   And for problems of that magnitude, there simply are not enough resources—governmental or super-sovereign—to go around. And as I’ve previously pointed out, Germany and France – the world’s 4th and 5th largest economies – have the greatest exposure to Portuguese and Spanish debt. For more on the interconnections between Euro economies adding to the risk of contagion, see this and this.   While it is tempting to assume that the Eurozone bailouts mean that creditor nations which have managed their economies well and saved huge amounts of excess reserves which they lend out, Sean Corrigon points out that the European bailouts are a Ponzi scheme: Under the rules of this multi-trillion shell game, the sovereigns guarantee the ECB which funds the banks which buy the government debt which provides for everyone else’s guarantees. (America is no different: Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Laurence Kotlikoff, Steve Keen, Michel Chossudovsky and the Wall Street Journal all say that America is running a giant Ponzi scheme as well….   It didn’t have to be like this. The European nations did not have to sacrifice themselves for the sake of their big banks. As Roubini wrote in February: “We have decided to socialize the private losses of the banking system.   ***   Roubini believes that further attempts at intervention have only increased the magnitude of the problems with sovereign debt. He says, “Now you have a bunch of super sovereigns— the IMF, the EU, the eurozone—bailing out these sovereigns.”   Essentially, the super-sovereigns underwrite sovereign debt—increasing the scale and concentrating the problems.   Roubini characterizes super-sovereign intervention as merely kicking the can down the road.   He says wryly: “There’s not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone.” [Others have made the same point]   But, despite the paper shuffling of debt at the national level—and at the level of supranational entities—reality ultimately intervenes: “So at some point you need restructuring. At some point you need the creditors of the banks to take a hit —otherwise you put all this debt on the balance sheet of government. And then you break the back of government—and then government is insolvent.” Indeed, the world’s foremost banking authority warned in 2008 that this would happen: As I pointed out in December 2008: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is often called the “central banks’ central bank”, as it coordinates transactions between central banks.   BIS points out in a new report that the bank rescue packages have transferred significant risks onto government balance sheets, which is reflected in the corresponding widening of sovereign credit default swaps: The scope and magnitude of the bank rescue packages also meant that significant risks had been transferred onto government balance sheets. This was particularly apparent in the market for CDS referencing sovereigns involved either in large individual bank rescues or in broad-based support packages for the financial sector, including the United States. While such CDS were thinly traded prior to the announced rescue packages, spreads widened suddenly on increased demand for credit protection, while corresponding financial sector spreads tightened. In other words, by assuming huge portions of the risk from banks trading in toxic derivatives, and by spending trillions that they don’t have, central banks have put their countries at risk from default. ***   But They Had No Choice … Did They?   But nations had no choice but to bail out their banks, did they?   Well, actually, they did.   The leading monetary economist told the Wall Street Journal that this was not a liquidity crisis, but an insolvency crisis. She said that Bernanke is fighting the last war, and is taking the wrong approach (as are other central bankers).   ***   BIS slammed the easy credit policy of the Fed and other central banks, the failure to regulate the shadow banking system, “the use of gimmicks and palliatives”, and said that anything other than (1) letting asset prices fall to their true market value, (2) increasing savings rates, and (3) forcing companies to write off bad debts “will only make things worse”. Remember, America wasn’t the only country with a housing bubble. The world’s central bankers let a global housing bubble development.  As I noted in December 2008: The bubble was not confined to the U.S. There was a worldwide bubble in real estate  .Indeed, the Economist magazine wrote in 2005 that the worldwide boom in residential real estate prices in this decade was “the biggest bubble in history“. The Economist noted that – at that time – the total value of residential property in developed countries rose by more than $30 trillion, to $70 trillion, over the past five years – an increase equal to the combined GDPs of those nations.   Housing bubbles are now bursting in China, France, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, and many other regions.   And the bubble in commercial real estate is also bursting world-wide. See this. BIS also cautioned that bailouts could harm the economy (as did the former head of the Fed’s open market operations). Indeed, the bailouts create a climate of moral hazard which encourages more risky behavior. Nobel prize winning economist George Akerlof predicted in 1993 that credit default swaps would lead to a major crash, and that future crashes were guaranteed unless the government stopped letting big financial players loot by placing bets they could never pay off when things started to go wrong, and by continuing to bail out the gamblers.   These truths are as applicable in Europe as in America. The central bankers have done the wrong things. They haven’t fixed anything, but simply transferred the cancerous toxic derivatives and other financial bombs from the giant banks to the nations themselves. And Europe – like the U.S. – has made the cardinal sin of covering up fraud, so that the wound can never be cleaned, but will just infect the patient.  Indeed, the sepsis is killing the patient.

QE3? Dollar Collapse? – Kerry Lutz Posted: 11 Jun 2012 05:05 PM PDT from Unconventional Finance:

Americans Suffered Record Decline In Wealth During Recession: Report Posted: 11 Jun 2012 04:04 PM PDT Americans suffered a record decline in wealth between 2007 and 2010 as home values tumbled, according to a Federal Reserve report on Monday that underscored the severity of the recent recession. The median family's net worth dropped 38.8 percent during the three-year period, the Fed said in its latest report on changes in U.S. Family Finances, derived from a survey of consumer finances. Fed economists told reporters that this was the biggest drop in net worth since the survey started in 1989. The median net worth, which is the value of assets minus debt, plunged to $77.3 trillion in 2010 from $126.4 trillion in 2007. Net worth in 2010 was at levels last seen in 1992. "Although declines in the values of financial assets or business were important factors for some families, the decreases in median net worth appear to have been driven most strongly by a broad collapse in house prices," the Fed said. Read more..... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

10 Things That We Can Learn About Shortages And Preparation From The Economic Collapse In Greece Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:43 PM PDT When the economy of a nation collapses, almost everything changes. Unfortunately, most people have never been through anything like that, so it can be difficult to know how to prepare. For those that are busy preparing for the coming global financial collapse, there is a lot to be learned from the economic depression that is happening right now in Greece. Essentially, what Greece is experiencing is a low level economic collapse. Unemployment is absolutely rampant and poverty is rapidly spreading, but the good news for Greece is that the global financial system is still operating somewhat normally and they are getting some financial assistance from the outside. Things in Greece could be a whole lot worse, and they will probably get a whole lot worse before it is all said and done. But already things have gotten bad enough in Greece that it gives us an idea of what a full-blown economic collapse in the 21st century may look like. There are reports of food and medicine shortages in Greece, crime and suicides are on the rise and people have been rapidly pulling their money out of the banks. Hopefully this article will give you some ideas that you can use as you prepare for the economic chaos that will soon be unfolding all over the globe. The following are 10 things that we can learn about shortages and preparation from the economic collapse in Greece…. #1 Food Shortages Can Actually Happen Most people assume that they will always be able to run out to their local supermarket or to Wal-Mart and get all of the supplies they need. Read more...... This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Silver Update 6/11/12 Cry Argentina Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:41 PM PDT from BrotherJohnF:

Sinclair sees U.S., gold banks battling central banks that need more gold and less paper Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:40 PM PDT 11:35a HKT Tuesday, July 12, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: In his latest commentary Jim Sinclair discusses the struggle between, on one hand, the U.S. Exchange Stabilization Fund and its associated bullion banks and, on the other, central banks around the world that are realizing that they've got too much paper money and not enough gold. "The secret that the manipulators must keep quiet is that the physical market for gold is very thin on the sell side," Sinclair writes. "Whatever is offered, be it 500 tons or more in manipulation from paper, has been and will continue to be taken." Sinclair's commentary is headlined "Stay the Course as Gold Continues Its Progressive March" and it's posted at JSMineSet here: http://www.jsmineset.com/2012/06/11/stay-the-course-as-gold-continues-it... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum (TSXV:NKL) Announces Encouraging Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, Iridium Assays from WS11-188 of Wellgreen Project in Yukon Territory, Canada Company Press Release May 25, 2012 VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL; OTC-QX: PNIKF; Frankfurt: P94P) is pleased to provide results of full spectrum 6E (Platinum, Palladian, Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, and Iridium) analysis of platinum group elements on the first batch of samples from the company's wholly-owned Wellgreen PGM-Ni-Cu project in the Yukon Territory, Canada. The company enlisted Activation Laboratories (Actlabs) of Ancaster, Ontario, to conduct a full-spectrum 6E analysis of samples taken from the 2011 drill hole WS11-188. Adding Rh, Ru, Os, and Ir to Pt and Pd increased the total PGE content (6E) by an average of 28 percent, based on a population of 90 samples, most of which are from disseminated sulphide-type mineralization. Assay results with 6E exceeding 0.50 ppm (0.5 g/t) (excluding copper and gold assays) are tabulated at Prophecy's Internet site and are available with assay results from the entire batch of 90 samples here: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_may25_prophecy_platinum_announces_rare... Join GATA here: Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012 J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome... Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012 Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/ Toronto Resource Investment Conference Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012 Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel Toronto, Ontario, Canada http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen... New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012 Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel New Orleans, Louisiana http://www.neworleansconference.com/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters From a Company Press Release November 22, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling. "We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company." Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered. For the company's complete press release, please visit: http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf

Meetings set for June 15-20th in attempt to end financial crisis Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:36 PM PDT [Ed. Note: The latest from Fulford, always controversial. It's clear that Europe and therefore the entire fiat, debt-based banking system is on the brink - the controllers are nearing full blown panic mode. As it relates to the posting of this information, there are kernels of truth here. Throwing stones is easy. Thinking independently is more difficult.] by Benjamin Fulford, Kauilapele's Blog: There will be a series of both secret and public high-level meetings from June 15 to June 20th aimed at ending the financial crisis that threatens to collapse the Western world's banking sector, according to multiple sources. The hope is that the G20 meeting set to start on June 18th will lead to a breakthrough. To help make that possible, the White Dragon Society sent a message to the Committee of 300 proposing the announcement of a campaign, similar in intensity to a world war, aimed at ending poverty, stopping environmental destruction, eliminating disease and otherwise trying to save our wonderful, but ailing planet. If the committee responds positively and yet the high-level financial blockage continues, then the next level response will be directed at the P2 freemason lodge and the BIS, according to sources involved in the negotiations. The other culprit known to be directly involved in stopping the new financial system is the drone serial killer Barak Obama, hired hand for the Federal Reserve Board owning cabal families. These families, the Warburgs, the Harrimans, The Scherffs (Bush), the Morgans, the Mellons, the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds and their subsidiaries would then be considered to be the source of the problem and subsequently dealt with. Read More @ Kauilapele.wordpress.com

No need to save in dubious paper when gold is around, Turk tells KWN Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:31 PM PDT 11:30a HKT Tuesday, June 12, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk today tells King World News that the rescue of Spain's banks is just debt piled atop debt, that all paper assets are dubious, and that there's no need to save in paper assets when gold is around. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/11_Tu... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum (TSXV:NKL) Announces Encouraging Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, Iridium Assays from WS11-188 of Wellgreen Project in Yukon Territory, Canada Company Press Release May 25, 2012 VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL; OTC-QX: PNIKF; Frankfurt: P94P) is pleased to provide results of full spectrum 6E (Platinum, Palladian, Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, and Iridium) analysis of platinum group elements on the first batch of samples from the company's wholly-owned Wellgreen PGM-Ni-Cu project in the Yukon Territory, Canada. The company enlisted Activation Laboratories (Actlabs) of Ancaster, Ontario, to conduct a full-spectrum 6E analysis of samples taken from the 2011 drill hole WS11-188. Adding Rh, Ru, Os, and Ir to Pt and Pd increased the total PGE content (6E) by an average of 28 percent, based on a population of 90 samples, most of which are from disseminated sulphide-type mineralization. Assay results with 6E exceeding 0.50 ppm (0.5 g/t) (excluding copper and gold assays) are tabulated at Prophecy's Internet site and are available with assay results from the entire batch of 90 samples here: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_may25_prophecy_platinum_announces_rare... Join GATA here: Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012 J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome... Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012 Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/ Toronto Resource Investment Conference Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012 Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel Toronto, Ontario, Canada http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen... New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012 Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel New Orleans, Louisiana http://www.neworleansconference.com/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters From a Company Press Release November 22, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling. "We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company." Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered. For the company's complete press release, please visit: http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf

Why I Was Bearish on Gold for 19 years & Why The new Bull Market Would Begin From 1999 Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:30 PM PDT from ArmstrongEconomics: A lot of people have asked how was it possible to call a bear market in gold for 19 years and then turn around and say the bull market should reach at least $5,000 thereafter with the first window for a possible high forming in 2017? I have stated numerous times that the major cycle for the rise and fall of nations is 224 years. There were 26 panics within that time frame which yield the 8.615 business cycle. I have stated that Britain lost its Financial Capital of the World status with World War I starting in 1915. Britain took that title from the Dutch. How? When William assumed the throne of England in 1689 he brought with him the Dutch ways of finance and the Bank of England began in 1694. That was precisely 224 years and the perfect conclusion of the Pi cycle. Read More @ ArmstrongEconomics.org

Capital controls, visas contemplated in Europe if Greece drops euro Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:25 PM PDT Euro Zone Discussed Capital Controls if Greek Exits Euro: Sources By Luke Baker Reuters Monday, June 11, 2012 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/11/us-eurozone-greece-capital-idU... BRUSSELS -- European finance officials have discussed limiting the size of withdrawals from ATM machines, imposing border checks, and introducing euro-zone capital controls as a worst-case scenario should Greece decide to leave the euro. EU officials have told Reuters the ideas are part of a range of contingency plans. They emphasized that the discussions were merely about being prepared for any eventuality rather than planning for something they expect to happen -- no one Reuters has spoken to expects Greece to leave the single-currency area. But with increased political uncertainty in Greece following the inconclusive election on May 6 and ahead of a second election on June 17, there is now an increased need to have contingencies in place, the EU sources said. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Platinum (TSXV:NKL) Announces Encouraging Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, Iridium Assays from WS11-188 of Wellgreen Project in Yukon Territory, Canada Company Press Release May 25, 2012 VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Canada -- Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL; OTC-QX: PNIKF; Frankfurt: P94P) is pleased to provide results of full spectrum 6E (Platinum, Palladian, Rhodium, Ruthenium, Osmium, and Iridium) analysis of platinum group elements on the first batch of samples from the company's wholly-owned Wellgreen PGM-Ni-Cu project in the Yukon Territory, Canada. The company enlisted Activation Laboratories (Actlabs) of Ancaster, Ontario, to conduct a full-spectrum 6E analysis of samples taken from the 2011 drill hole WS11-188. Adding Rh, Ru, Os, and Ir to Pt and Pd increased the total PGE content (6E) by an average of 28 percent, based on a population of 90 samples, most of which are from disseminated sulphide-type mineralization. Assay results with 6E exceeding 0.50 ppm (0.5 g/t) (excluding copper and gold assays) are tabulated at Prophecy's Internet site and are available with assay results from the entire batch of 90 samples here: http://prophecyplat.com/news_2012_may25_prophecy_platinum_announces_rare... The discussions have taken place in conference calls over the past six weeks, as concerns have grown that a radical-left coalition, SYRIZA, may win the second election, increasing the risk that Greece could renege on its EU/IMF bailout and therefore move closer to abandoning the currency. No decisions have been taken on the calls, but members of the Eurogroup Working Group, which consists of euro zone deputy finance ministers and heads of treasury departments, have discussed the options in some detail, the sources said. Belgium's finance minister, Steve Vanackere, said at the end of May that it was a function of each euro zone state to be prepared for problems. These discussions have been in that vein, with the specific aim of limiting a bank run or capital flight. As well as limiting cash withdrawals and imposing capital controls, they have discussed the possibility of suspending the Schengen agreement, which allows for visa-free travel among 26 countries, including most of the European Union. "Contingency planning is underway for a scenario under which Greece leaves," one of the sources, who has been involved in the conference calls, said. "Limited cash withdrawals from ATMs and limited movement of capital have been considered and analyzed." Another source confirmed the discussions, including that the suspension of Schengen was among the options raised. "These are not political discussions, these are discussions among finance experts who need to be prepared for any eventuality," the second source said. "It is sensible planning, that is all, planning for the worst-case scenario." The first official said it was still being examined whether there was a legal basis for such extreme measures. "The Bank of Greece is not aware of any such plans," a central bank spokesman in Athens told Reuters when asked about the sources' comments. The vast majority of Greeks -- some surveys have indicated 75 to 80 percent -- like the euro and want to retain the currency, something Greek politicians are aware of and which may dissuade them from pushing the country too close to the brink. However, SYRIZA is expected to win or come a strong second on June 17. Alexis Tsipras, the party's 37-year-old leader, has said he plans to tear up or heavily renegotiate the 130-billion-euro bailout agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The EU and IMF have said they are not prepared to renegotiate. If those differences cannot be resolved, the threat of the country leaving or being forced out of the euro will remain, and hence the need for contingencies to be in place. Switzerland said last month it was considering introducing capital controls if the euro falls apart. In a conference call on May 21, the Eurogroup Working Group told euro zone member states that they should each have a plan in place if Greece were to leave the currency. Belgium's Vanackere said two days after that call that it was a basic function of each euro zone member state to be prepared for any eventuality. "All the contingency plans (for Greece) come back to the same thing: to be responsible as a government is to foresee even what you hope to avoid," he told reporters. "We must insist on efforts to avoid an exit scenario but that doesn't mean we are not preparing for eventualities." * * * Join GATA here: Standard Chartered's Earth Resources Conference Wednesday-Thursday, June 20-21, 2012 J.W. Marriott, Hong Kong http://www.standardcharteredsignatureevents.com/earths-resources/welcome... Hong Kong Gold Investment Forum Monday-Wednesday, June 25-27, 2012 Renaissance Harbour View Hotel, Hong Kong http://www.hkgoldinvestmentforum.com/ Toronto Resource Investment Conference Thursday-Friday, September 27-28, 2012 Toronto Sheraton Centre Hotel Toronto, Ontario, Canada http://www.cambridgehouse.com/event/toronto-resource-investment-conferen... New Orleans Investment Conference Wednesday-Saturday, October 24-27, 2012 Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel New Orleans, Louisiana http://www.neworleansconference.com/ * * * Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: http://gata.org/tshirts Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Discovers Potential High-Grade Gold Mineralization at Blackdome in British Columbia -- 13.6g over 1.5 Meters From a Company Press Release November 22, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- With its latest surface diamond drilling program at its 100-percent-owned, formerly producing Blackdome gold mine in southern British Columbia, Sona Resources Corp. has discovered a potentially high-grade gold-mineralized area, with one hole intersecting 13.6 grams of gold in 1.5 meters of core drilling. "We intersected a promising new mineralized zone, and we feel optimistic about the assay results," says Sona's president and CEO, John P. Thompson. "We have undertaken an aggressive exploration program that has tested a number of target zones. Our discovery of this new gold-bearing structure is significant, and it represents a positive development for the company." Sona aims to bring its permitted Blackdome mill back into production over the next year and a half, at a rate of 200 tonnes per day, with feed from the formerly producing Blackdome mine and the nearby Elizabeth gold deposit property. A positive preliminary economic assessment by Micon International Ltd., based on a gold price of $950 per ounce over eight years, has estimated a cash cost of $208 per tonne milled, or $686 per gold ounce recovered. For the company's complete press release, please visit: http://www.sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR18_2011-opt.pdf

The Economic Collapse Is Not A Single Event Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:00 PM PDT from The Economic Collapse Blog: Many people hype "the coming economic collapse" as if it is some kind of big summer Hollywood blockbuster. Many people out there write about it as if it is something that will happen in a single day or over a few weeks and that it will suddenly change how the entire world functions. But that is not how the financial world works. The financial world is like a game of chess – very slow and methodical. Yes, there are times when things happen very quickly (like back in 2008), but even that crisis played out over a number of months. Sadly, most Americans are not used to thinking in terms of months or years. These days, most Americans have the attention span of a goldfish and most Americans have been trained to expect instant gratification. They are simply not accustomed to being patient and to wait for things. Well, despite what you may have read, the economic collapse is not going to be a single event. It is going to play out over quite a few years. In some ways we are experiencing an economic collapse right now. When the next major financial crisis occurs, many will be calling that "an economic collapse". But if you really want to grasp what is happening to us, you need to think long-term. We are heading for a complete and total nightmare, but it is going to take some time to get to the end of the story. Read More @ TheEconomicCollpaseBlog.com

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Metals Rise in a Flight to Safety – Refuse to Lose Posted: 11 Jun 2012 03:00 PM PDT from Jesse's Café Américain: "Yet while the rest of the populace was suffering, the rich just got richer. In 2009 and 2010, years in which millions were unable to find work, the top one percent reaped 93 percent of the 'recovery' income, and corporations are making more than they ever did. And the Republicans can still propose even further cuts in the taxes of 'job creators' whose only job creation has been for their own lawyers and lobbyists." Garry Wills "The terrible, cold, cruel part is Wall Street. Rivers of gold flow there from all over the earth, and death comes with it. There, as nowhere else, you feel a total absence of the spirit: herds of men who cannot count past three, herds more who cannot get past six, scorn for pure science and demoniacal respect for the present. And the terrible thing is that the crowd that fills the Street believes that the world will always be the same, and that it is their duty to keep that huge machine running, day and night, forever." Federico Garcia Lorca Read More @ Jesse's Café Américain:

Gold Trades Bollinger to Bollinger Posted: 11 Jun 2012 02:24 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com June 11, 2012 02:34 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT Gold is also attracted to the Bollingers at the moment. The latest move off of the high is impulsive (5 waves) which favors lower prices from the current level to at least Friday’s low at 1553. The bearish RSI reversal signal that was in place for gold last week is now in place for USD crosses. LEVELS: 1522 1553 1582 1608 1641 1672...

EWI's Chief Analyst Hochberg Explains Recent Action in Stocks, U.S. Dollar and More Posted: 11 Jun 2012 02:21 PM PDT EWI Chief Market Analyst Steven Hochberg talks with MarketWrap radio on May 10, 2012, about recent market action and where we are in the long-term trend, among many other topics. Read More...

Magnificent Mojo Mogambo (MMM) Posted: 11 Jun 2012 02:20 PM PDT I was, admittedly, drinking heavily, courageously trying to get drunk enough so that 1) I would have a handy excuse for being so incoherent and belligerent, and 2) I would not have to think about the inflationary horrors in prices that will be the ruinous price we pay for the inflationary horrors in the exploding money supply thanks to the treachery and stupidity of the Federal Reserve and the loathsome Obama administration. Unfortunately, at this particular point in time I was neither of the above, although naturally still blathering in my customary rage.  But I was now at the point where I sigh aloud through gritted teeth, asking rhetorically "And who committed these terrible monetary and fiscal sins, and thus condemned us and our children to the hell of complete ruination? To quote Captain Ahab in Moby Dick, 'from the heart of hell I strike at thee!' Hahahaha!" As if on cue, here comes my idiot son bursting into the room, excitedly exclaiming that his many IOUs to me are as good as paid!   "Huh?" I think to myself, wondering if he finally got a job, or was I too sloshed to comprehend what he is saying? So, through numb lips I managed to ask, "Did you get a job or something, or have some other way to pay me back all the money you owe me, or at least pour me another drink, you lazy little bastard? Or even get your damned mother off my ass about taking the garbage out for a lousy ten minutes?" He says no, he did not get a job, adding that he is sick of hearing me ask about it, and helpfully pointing out that I was slobbering down the front of my shirt.   Well, I looked down at my shirt, and it was, alas, messy with slobber. Reflexively, I cleverly denied the facts and said "I am not drooling.  I deliberately put that slobber there because…because…because…" Realizing that I could not come up with some vaguely logical reason why I was dribbling on my own shirt, I groggily switched tacks and asked, with a snotty, arrogant attitude, "How is it that a busted-out kid like you can pay off his IOUs to me, his loving father who sees treachery everywhere, even in the bosom of his devoted family?"    I subtly arched an eyebrow to show that, as a loving father, I am curious as to how he has arranged such a wondrous thing. In reply, he thrusts a copy of the Tampa Bay Times, my local laughably provincial leftist rag, which (as you would expect) carried an essay by Paul Krugman, a man whom I consider, with a particularly acid venom, one of the worst neo-Keynesian econometric halfwits in the known world, the shame of Princeton University, a shame he shares with Ben Bernanke, chairman of the loathsome, demonic Federal Reserve. Well, my eyes were kind of going in-and-out of focus by this time, but the adrenaline of my outrage soon focused my attention wonderfully when he demonstrated his insanity by pontificating that, even though it has been discredited for so long that it is beyond incredible that he would dare say it, "Our debt is mostly money we owe to each other." At this enormous, enormous stupidity I felt a huge Mogambo Laugh Of Scorn (MLOS) building inside me, which I labored mightily to suppress long enough to gently and kindly ask my darling son, as the gentle and kindly father that I really, really am, "What in the hell does that have to do with your owing me far more money than you will ever be worth, you little moron?" He gleefully explained "Well, I owe you money, see, but Mr. Krugman says we all owe money to each other, and you'll get yours back somehow, like when you enjoy the utility of new bridges and roads, and keeping the welfare population docile, and having a massive military and an enormous government workforce looking for something to do."  My stunned silence apparently emboldened him to continue "Or probably more directly when I am older and paying Social Security taxes to support you in your geezerhood.  So Krugman was right; it's money we owe to each other! So it all cancels out! We're even, dude!" At this, the long-suppressed MLOS burst forth from my lips, my bad breath tinged with sour tequila and old pizza, the stench of which made me realize where he got such a ridiculous idea; he hangs around Democrats and similarly brain-damaged kids at school. So I gave him a scornful, disdainful look, pointed to the door, let out a loud belch and then an even louder fart as my Clever Mogambo Way (CMW) of wordlessly dismissing him and his stupid ideas from my royal presence. As for Paul Krugman, I forced myself to read further in his stupid essay to see if he has, by some absolute miracle, showed that the national debt really IS a lot of "money we owe to each other", and not some deadly generator of horrific economy-killing inflation in prices like has always been the case. I have more than an academic interest in this, as I, a taxpayer, have been paying and paying and paying taxes to pay the interest on the constantly-growing debt (now grown to a staggering $16 trillion) all my life, and paying the constantly-higher inflation in prices that one sadly gets as a result of creating so much excess money and credit, too, paying more and more Every Freaking Day (EFD). And now I'd really, really, REALLY like someone to pay ME for a change, which you would expect from something termed "money we owe each other" and, even if unmentioned, paying me back the excess money I had to spend all along the way to pay the inflation in prices that all that excess money and credit produced, too, which is now (hold onto your hat!) running at and unaltered 8% or so, by which I mean "or more!"  Gaaaah! We're Freaking Doomed (WFD)! Alas, like all know-nothing blowhards, Krugman does not explain how he reached his preposterous conclusion, and that we'll just have to take his word on it, even though he has been wrong about almost everything all his life, except his remark about "Mogambo? Sure I know him! An incandescent brilliance! He's a Big Freaking Genius (BFG) who sees right through me, exposing me as the vacuous gasbag that I am!" Okay, I admit that he never actually said that, and I just made it up because that is just the kind of petty, spiteful, hateful kind of guy that I am, which I have already been told is not as charming as I had always thought, so to hell with all of you. Anyway, the point of all of this is not that kids want something for nothing, or that the inmates are running the mental asylum, but that 4,500 years of history says to buy gold and silver when it gets to this point, to which I add "and oil stocks." And you don't have to believe me just because I'm an arrogant bastard who thinks he is some kind of genius or something.  No, sir!  You can but listen to the dulcet tones of any Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) -- intelligent people all! -- who will likewise tell you to buy gold, silver and oil stocks, too! It's freaking unanimous! And if you are (be honest!) a lazy bastard like me, then you will appreciate the utter simplicity with which investment decisions are made when it merely boils down to "How much physical gold, physical silver and/or oil stocks should I buy today so that I will be wealthy in the future when this whole stinking, fraudulent, bloated, cancerous fiat-money crap goes bust in some horrific inflationary calamity, as it must because it always has, as so confidently and arrogantly argued by the petty, spiteful, hateful -- yet charming! -- Magnificent Mojo Mogambo (MMM)?" Then you will, as I do, and as Junior Mogambo Rangers (JMRs) around the world do, and as everyone in this whole freaking quadrant of the galaxy do does do, too, do, gleefully say to yourself "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!" If you are a JMR, then you noticed the code words "do does do, too, do." Now, get out your Mogambo Decoder Ring (MDR) and decipher the hidden message, which is "Buy gold, silver and oil." If you are a JMR, then you already know that the secret message, "But gold, silver and oil", is always the same secret message.  This is because while the advice itself is brilliant, there is no such thing as a Mogambo Decoder Ring (MDR), so you couldn't decipher anything anyway. So, if you have sent you money for, but not received, an MDR, be advised that the whole thing is a big rip-off, and you will never get your money back because that is just the petty, spiteful, hateful kind of guy that I am, but who is charming as all hell.   But you will wax wealthy from buying gold, silver and oil, which will more than make up for, you know, the ring rip-off thing. And if you have NOT ordered a Mogambo Decoder Ring (MDR), then simply send $500, cash, in un-marked, non-sequential bills, in a plain envelope addressed to "Occupant", and then just wait! In the meantime, don't forget buying the aforementioned gold, silver and oil, as "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!"

Stay The Course As Gold Continues Its Progressive March Posted: 11 Jun 2012 02:00 PM PDT by Jim Sinclair, JS Mineset: My Dear friends, In one corner we have the Exchange stabilization fund and gold banks, their brokers who are clearly in a panic to hold gold below $1600. In the other corner are many central banks elsewhere that fear the viability of their paper currency inventories. In the middle stands the speculators which are basically gambleholics who will always be in the middle of the battle getting pummeled. Last evening was the worst nightmare of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and gold banks as gold moved up $17 in Asia, therein properly defining the situation in paper currency everywhere. The EU had gapped up and gold had worked its way up. The situation is so fragile for Goldman, the primary broker for the Exchange Stabilization Fund selling paper. Read More @ JSMineset.com

Buy A House and Put Nickels In It Posted: 11 Jun 2012 01:56 PM PDT “Why are you throwing away your money on rent?” we were often asked between 2004 and 2006. “You could be making a killing right now if you were buy a house.” Long-suffering readers know that their Whiskey editor opted to stock up on silver instead of real estate in those critical years. It was clear to us that silver was ridiculously undervalued. We greedily bought up the shiny metal at bargain single-digit prices. Meanwhile the whole housing thing seemed awfully frothy. Manic even. And we understood that some very non-free market forces were driving real estate higher and higher. We opted to sit it out. Especially when we realized that it was cheaper to rent a place than buy a comparable property. Combine that with the near-inevitability of a painful bust and we were only too happy to look like fools for sitting out and just renting our living space. But now the tide has turned. The Fed-induced fever has run its course in the housing market. Prices have fall...

70 FACTS OF DOOM Posted: 11 Jun 2012 01:35 PM PDT The http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ is a prolific poster of doom. This is a good one. The U.S. Economy By The Numbers: 70 Facts That Barack Obama Does Not Want You To See Why is the economy going to collapse?  Have you ever been asked that question?  If so, what did you say?  Sometimes it is difficult to communicate [...]

Quote du Jour Posted: 11 Jun 2012 01:34 PM PDT "Always keep enough GOLD to bribe the Border Guards!" ~ Old adage

The June Issue of TDV Has Just Been Released Posted: 11 Jun 2012 01:30 PM PDT by Justin O'Connell, Dollar Vigilante: We have just released the June issue of The Dollar Vigilante. Here are the first few paragraphs to whet your appetite: Doug Casey often states that he is very bullish on humanity. He believes that humanity has been ascending for tens of thousands of years and will continue to do so. When prompted further as to why he is bullish he often states that technology is a key factor, further stating, "More scientists and engineers are alive now than in all of human history combined." That's the good news. Here's the bad news. There are more central bankers alive now than in all of human history combined as well! As Bob Hoye stated in a recent speech at the Committee for Monetary Research and Education (cmre.org): "Ninety percent of all central bankers who have ever lived are alive today. Daunting isn't it? It gets worse. Ninety-five percent of all the reckless central bankers in history are alive today." Read More @ DollarVigilante.com

Guest Post: Everything You Know About Markets Is Wrong? Posted: 11 Jun 2012 12:46 PM PDT Submitted by Eric L. Prentis, The financial elite—using academe for intellectual cover—want you to believe that markets are efficient, as defined by the Efficient Market Theory (EMT). My research strikes down this hoary old EMT economic dogma, used by duplicitous bankers and hedge fund managers to con US politicians and 99% of Americans. The Efficient Market Theory (EMT) is a significant foundation theory in economics. Prove the EMT wrong, and economics becomes largely an empty shell. Therefore, the EMT is the most important fundamental issue in economics and for America. US politicians mistakenly use EMT based economic theories to pass laws favorable to Wall Street. First causing and now worsening the credit crisis. Examples of credit crisis enabling legislation include: Gramm–Leach–Bliley Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act of 2012 Three tenets define the EMT. The first tenet—that markets are in equilibrium and if unexpected events cause disequilibrium, it is only temporary because markets are self-equilibrating—is disputed in the literature. A stock market always in equilibrium and efficient is impossible because traders have different endowments, beliefs and preferences. In addition, arbitrage costs throw markets out of equilibrium. The second tenet—that stock prices "fully reflect" all information—has long been challenged in the literature, with many inconsistencies reported. Tenet number two goes on to say asset prices properly represent each asset's intrinsic value, and as a result, prices are always accurate signals for capital allocation. Researchers in behavioral economics find fault with this EMT assumption, because it does not account for human nature and inherent herding behavioral instincts of market participants. EMT theorists—Eugene F. Fama and Burton G. Malkiel—claim assuming market equilibrium is close enough to reality, and that research into EMT tenet two contests only the semi-strong form of efficiency. That is, where earning higher returns than the stock market, with lower risk, is not achievable by knowing all publicly available information. EMT theorists continue to support the EMT and say, "If you want to do better than stock market returns, you have to take on more risk than the stock market." EMT tenet number three is most important—that is, stock prices move randomly or are uncorrelated with, if not independent of the prior period's price change. Therefore, earning higher returns than the stock market, with lower risk, is impossible to achieve using only past prices (i.e., technical analysis stock trading rules or stock charts). Empirically prove EMT tenet number three wrong— because it tests the weak form of market efficiency—and the EMT is wrong, period! EMT theorists specify two methods to test EMT tenet number three. The first method is statistical inference. Calculate serial correlation coefficients of stock price changes. If the serial correlation coefficients are zero or close to zero, this supports assuming serial independence in the price data. Therefore, one can infer that technical analysis stock trading rules cannot work. The second method requires using a technical analysis stock trading rule predictive model that forecasts the future, based solely on past prices—where expected profits are greater and risk lower than they would be under a naïve buy-and-hold policy.   Research that supports the EMT makes one-or-all of the following mistakes: Using the wrong data—Systemic market risk and random unsystemic risk make up individual company stock price movements. As much as 50% of a company's stock price actions are random unsystemic risk variations associated with the internal circumstances within that particular company. The remaining 50% of a company's stock price movements represent the systemic risk of the overall market. The random unsystemic risk is the chaotic portion of the stock price data—that if removed leaves only the systemic market risk of the overall market, which may then be analyzed. Most EMT research studies day-to-day stock price movements of individual companies, which is mistaken. Granted, this unsystemic and systemic, day-to-day individual company data look random, but it is the wrong data to analyze to determine overall, long-term market trends. Using the wrong method to analyze the data—Most researchers use statistical inference to test tenet number three. However, there is a serious problem with using statistical inference to test whether stock price data are independent. That is, it is difficult to distinguish between a rootless series and one where the systemic quality is faint. Research shows that five-thousand years of data are needed to identify independence in stock price data using statistical inference. However, these data do not exist. Consequently, statistical inference is not the correct method to use to test tenet number three. Jumping to mistaken conclusions based on half-truths—Statistical inference tests using day-to-day individual company data report serial correlation coefficients that are close to zero. This supports assuming serial independence in the price data. Therefore, one can infer that tenet number three is valid. Unfortunately, this proves nothing of the sort. Analyzing the wrong data over an inadequate number of years simply gives a false positive.   What day-to-day stock price movements are for individual companies is the wrong research question. Instead, we want to know what the overall stock market is doing over the long term. The correct way to look at market data follows.   Using correct data—Individual company stock price behavior, which includes the randomness of unsystemic risk, is not evaluated. Instead, only systemic market risk is analyzed in my published journal research—please see here and here—by comparing only systemic market risk of two well-diversified S&P 500 Index portfolios. S&P 500 Index portfolio B is for active trading and S&P 500 Index portfolio A is the benchmark portfolio. Focusing only on systemic market risk in the data studied, removes much of the random or chance stock market price behavior of individual companies. When investing over 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years or more—day-to-day stock price movements are immaterial to trading success and may be thought of as just daily market chatter. Concentrating on daily price movements of individual company stock or the stock market as a whole is not the correct question. Day-to-day stock price action is volatile. To dampen out this daily chatter and give perspective to what is occurring long-term in the stock market, S&P 500 Index "monthly price data" are used to smooth out stock price volatility. Monthly price data are important in dampening out day-to-day price movements. However, using last month's price to predict next month's price is also not conducive to long-term trend development. To further smooth price variations and focus on systemic stock market risk. Nine and two-month simple moving average (SMA) trend lines are fit to the S&P 500 Index monthly price data for actively managed portfolio B. Smoothing out data volatility, which gives an overall view of the long-term stock market trend. This is the third step in removing much of the random stock market price behavior from the research data. Focusing only on systemic stock market risk in the monthly data and smoothing stock price volatility using nine and two-month SMA trend lines for the well-diversified S&P 500 Index portfolio B—to lessen random variations—is a major difference between my research and other EMT research in the literature, and a major reason the results are so significant. My research covers 1871-through-2008, 138 years. All available Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 Index data are included in this research study, making it the longest duration and complete in the literature.   Using the correct method to analyze the data—Fama's approved second method for testing the EMT, requires using technical analysis. Fama says to develop and test, over both good and bad economic conditions, a technical analysis stock trading rule predictive model that forecasts the future, based solely on past prices—where expected profits are greater and risk lower than they would be under a naïve buy-and-hold policy. My empirical research method directly tests stock market price independence of EMT tenet number three, using a new technical analysis stock trading rule predictive model. To test whether expected profits are greater and risk lower than a benchmark naïve buy and hold policy, which Fama calls, "an equally valid scientific method versus statistical inference."   Empirical results—In my US stock market research, the relative maxima and minima stock trading rule S&P 500 Index portfolio B—by $495,360 dollars (i.e., $580,423 - $85,063)—makes +582% more money than buy-and-hold S&P 500 Index portfolio A—and is only 64% as risky over 138 years—from January 1871 through December 31, 2008.   The new technical analysis relative maxima and minima stock trading rule predictive model makes substantially more money at significantly less risk than the naïve buy-and-hold policy. EMT theorists say this thorough beating of the US stock market should be impossible to achieve using only technical analysis. Thus, tenet number three and the weak form of the EMT are invalid, making the Efficient Market Theory wrong, period!   Discussion  Neoliberal economic philosophy, starting around 1980 and now mainstream in academe and American politics, promotes laissez-faire economic policies of reducing the size of government, deregulation and privatization of government services. Neoliberal economists base this philosophy on the belief that neoclassical economic theory is correct. That is, that "markets are efficient"—my research shows the EMT is dead wrong. Gullible US politicians believe that markets are efficient and defer to them. Therefore, US politicians abdicate their responsibility to manage the overall economy, and happily for them, receive Wall Street money. Mistakenly, the primary focus during the 2008 credit crisis is on fixing the financial markets (Wall Street banks) and not the "real economy."  Wall Street touts markets as trustworthy and infallible, but that faith is misplaced. Big market players easily manipulate markets. For example, by changing accounting laws so banks no longer have to mark-to-market, High Frequency Trading (HFT) front running, and multinational companies buying back their common stock shares, along with favorable huckstering of stock positions on CNBC—owned by Comcast and General Electric. In addition, Chairman Bernanke, because of his Quantitative Easing II, takes credit for the Russell 2000 Index of small company stocks reaching an all-time high of 860.37. The Federal Reserve (Fed) talks of added quantitative easing (QE), but this would mainly help the richest 1% of Americans and hurt the "real economy," with higher gasoline and food price inflation. Unfortunately, QE only helps overinflate the stock and commodity markets by manipulating prices. Despite Fed programs QE I&II and Operation Twist, America is experiencing the worst economic recovery from a recession, ever! President Obama, if he wants to lose the 2012 election, will let Bernanke electronically print more QE money and make the "real economy" worse than it otherwise would be. The continuing credit crisis is serious—with the world economy poised for a double-dip recession. The current US government policy of increasing the national debt by $5 trillion dollars over the past four years, keeping insolvent banks from going bankrupt, a Federal Reserve zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), causing malinvestment, and monetizing the national debt (which is what tin-pot dictators do just before they are forced to flee the country) with quantitative easing by the Fed, and austerity for the 99% to repay bad bank loans has not worked—and doing more of the same will not work—and defines insanity.   The financial elite are using this "cover-up and pray" policy—hoping that rekindled "animal spirits" will bring the economy back in time to save the status quo. This is impossible because the trust is gone. The same sociopaths control the economy. Instead, the financial elite are just protecting themselves with outlandish pay bonuses, based on cooked books; while the "real economy" flounders with high unemployment, unsustainable budget deficits, a struggling real estate market, and low capital formation, crumbling infrastructure and high gasoline and food price inflation.   Conclusion—this is what to do: Reenact the Glass-Steagall Act. Allowing investment banks to speculate with savers' money is criminal. The daisy-chained, unregulated $707 trillion dollar OTC Derivatives market will bring down the world economy, when it goes bust. JP Morgan's recent huge OTC Derivative trading losses are a prelude to this eventuality, with many more instances to come. Start unwinding the OTC Derivatives market now, before it is too late. Insolvent banks are a drain on the "real economy." Force insolvent banks to go bankrupt. TBTF is an irrational policy. Allow capitalism to work for the 1%. Public and private debt to GDP is about 360%, and 30% of Americans are being hounded by bill collectors for unpaid debts. Americans can no longer service their massive debt loads. Allow debt forgiveness for the 99% and institute austerity for the 1%—they can afford it. ZIRP is destroying capital formation and savers. Allow interest rates to rise, which will increase consumer demand. The Fed's manipulation of capital markets causes malinvestment—resulting in crippling long-term penalties for the "real economy."

Jim Sinclair: ‘The End Is Not Near, It Is Here and Now’ Posted: 11 Jun 2012 12:21 PM PDT Jim Sinclair is now warning… that 'The end is not near, it is here and now' in reference to the global financial system…[and]*reiterating his long held view that there will be "QE to infinity" despite the denials of Bernanke and other central bankers. [He also has some interesting things to say about gold and alarming things to say about the euro. Read on.] Words: 305 So says Mark O’Bryne ([url]www.Goldcore.com[/url]) in edited excerpts from his original article*. [INDENT] Lorimer Wilson, editor of [B][COLOR=#0000ff]www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has edited the article below for length and clarity – see Editor's Note at the bottom of the page. This paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.[/COLOR][/B] [/INDENT] O’Bryne goes on to say, in part: Mr. Sinclair has a good track record. He predicted back in the early 2000's with gold below $300 an ounce that gold would reach $1,650 within a decade. Now ...

The Gold Price is in an Uptrend that will Sprint Toward $1,682 Once it Hits $1,618.13 Posted: 11 Jun 2012 12:00 PM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1595.50 Change : 5.40 or 0.34% Silver Price Close Today : 2860.6 Change : 14.5 or 0.51% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.775 Change : -0.094 or -0.17% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01793 Change : 0.000030 or 0.17% Platinum Price Close Today : 1447.80 Change : 24.20 or 1.70% Palladium Price Close Today : 623.80 Change : 13.15 or 2.15% S&P 500 : 1,308.93 Change : -16.93 or -1.28% Dow In GOLD$ : $160.80 Change : $ (2.39) or -1.46% Dow in GOLD oz : 7.779 Change : -0.116 or -1.46% Dow in SILVER oz : 433.87 Change : -7.23 or -1.64% Dow Industrial : 12,411.23 Change : -142.97 or -1.14% US Dollar Index : 82.69 Change : 0.183 or 0.22% Thursday was not kind to the GOLD PRICE. It stepped over that $1,615 line right into an open manhole, and never stopped until it hit pavement at $1,555. Y'all interpret this as pleases you, but I say it was the Nice Government Men anticipating the trouble in Europe with a pre-emptory gold slam. Makes no difference, all their manipulating don't amount to spit in the wind or on the sidewalk. GOLD PRICE brushed itself off and marched right back, gaining $3.50 on Friday and $5.40 today to close at $1,595.50. Gold's longer term chart looks as bogus as a $4.00 bill with a picture of Moe, Larry, and Curly. It shows huge swings back and forth, which, while conceivably possible someplace in the universe, simply doesn't fit against that May bottom and strong reversal rally on June 5. So look at the aftermath. GOLD "was driven" (passive voice obscures the actor) down to $1,556.50 but this series of rising bottoms -- $1,526.70, $1,532.10, $1,556.40 -- constitute what? AN UPTREND. Manipulation failed. Now gold is wrestling (or "rasslin'" as we say in Tennessee) with its 50 day moving average ($1,618.13). Once it pierces that mark again, it will yet once more sprint toward $1,682 resistance. Take a deep breath, y'all. Gold is okay. Nothing but your paper money is in danger. I'm fixing to tell y'all something else about silver that nobody else has grasped yet, but first the technicals. The SILVER PRICE chart has the same sort of upside-down head and shoulders look to it that gold's chart shows. Low Friday came about 2790c and silver has been working its way higher ever since. Today it rose 14.5c to end at 2860.6 cents. Low came at 2825c, high reached 2894c, so 2900c presents the first barrier to be smashed. SILVER closed today above its 20 DMA (2822c). Silver, too, has left in its wake a series of higher lows, but now needs to concentrate on climbing through 2900c and through its 50 DMA at 2994c. That's coming. Count on it. Bottom line says that for all the panic last week, the euro remains under deep suspicion, like a chicken-eating hound with feathers on his muzzle. Dollar ain't in much better shape, just sporting fewer warts and sores at the moment. Silver and gold survived the test and confirmed the strength and tenacity of their recent bottoms. Mercy! What more do y'all want? A government guarantee? On 11 June 1859 the Comstock Lode, one of the world's richest silver finds, was discovered in Virginia City, Nevada. What most folks don't know, and has given me abundant opportunity to correct them on, is that half of the value of the metal coming out of the Comstock came from gold. So the silly myth that so called silver experts propagate, that the huge new supply of silver coming from the Comstock Lode forced the world off the silver standard, ranks with believing that during a solar eclipse the sky dragon is gobbling up the sun. Silver was demonetized by bankers, for their own purposes. English bankers, some say, who bought the passage of the Crime of '73 (silver's demonetization in the coin bill) for half a million in gold. Congress was a lot cheaper in those days. Here's my silver secret. Most every silver dealer believes that lying around somewhere out there exists an endless supply of US 90% silver coin. Hogwash. Coin has been melted since the late 1960s, and the supply is NOT infinite. Yet because it is more profitable for dealers to sell the silver American Eagles and similar coins, they sneer at 90%. However, we have watched in the last month as the more 90% we tried to buy, the higher the premium climbed, from about negative 85 cents to about melt today (buy side wholesale premium). Some wholesalers have temporarily stopped selling 90%, because they're afraid they can't cover it. Y'all watch. One day not too far away, 90% silver coin will begin carrying a premium as folks discover that the coin they spurned is in short supply. But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee and don't even look up to congress. Y'all think now, before you moan and whine about silver and gold: Spain's toe is caught in the wringer so tight that the EU had to bail out their banks to the tune of $125 billion, bringing the grand bank bailout total to $600 billion, counting Ireland, Portugal and Greece. They call it a fix, I call it putting spider webs on a squirting artery. Markets were not fooled, as European stocks buckled today and Spanish bond yields rose (folks are afraid the government will end up holding the banks' bag, so they want more interest.) Now think: if you were the scurvy lot called the central bank heads, what would you do when your banking system was flying apart? You'd get in that market and sell the SNOT out of silver to drive down gold, and you'd do the same for gold. If you didn't, your masters would carry you out behind the Fed building and shoot you. That's the world you live in, where the central bank musketeers are all for one, and one for all, and the people suck hind teat. Every one of these bailouts simply re-inforces and proves my iron presupposition: they have no weapon but inflation and therefore they will inflate. Otherwise, they die, and as Stalin said, "Ruling classes never leave the stage of history voluntarily." They cling to power, even if it devastates all the world. In spite of all the hootin' and hollerin' Thursday and Friday, charts haven't changed much. Euro looks sick as a cat eating grass and the yen has topped if it breaks 124. Today the Euro lost 0.33% to $1.2475 while the yen flatlined, up 0.6% at 125.95c/Y100 (Y79.40/US$1). Meanwhile the US dollar index hath not polished its image. Yes, today it rose 18.3 basis points (0.24%) to 82.694, but that's a long stretch from the June 1 high at 83.45. Just like that whiff of Ripple off a wine-o's breath, it can't be mistaken for anything but what it is, a downtrend. Would have to rally above 83.54 to gainsay that. Y'all don't want to hear about stocks if you own any, because today was one of the few cases on record of a corpse nailing shut its own coffin. Dow and S&P both paint the same five day chart, with a rally beginning Wednesday (from about 12,150 on the Dow) and climbing on Thursday, dropping but maintaining on Friday, peaking very early today with a move into new high territory, then collapsing. What I have described can be viewed from two angles. First, the Wednesday - today action has created a head and shoulders top with the neckline at Dow 12,400 (S&P about 1,308). Dow closed at 12,411.23, down 142.97 (1.14%) in lock step with the S&P500 at 1,308.93, down 16.93 or 1.26%. If that is a head and shoulders, stocks will rally once more to 12,550 before they fall again, this time piercing the neckline and falling like the stars over Alabama. Yet another observation must be addressed. A move to a new high intraday with a lower close for the day is the portentous first half of a Key Reversal. A lower close tomorrow makes all that HandS stuff immaterial and sends stocks back to the cellar, digging a tunnel to the center of the earth. If you still own stocks, you're getting a last warning to sell them and put the proceeds into silver and gold. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 1-888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Down Payment for the Zombies Posted: 11 Jun 2012 10:06 AM PDT June 11, 2012 [LIST] [*]Up, down, all around: Crazy market reaction to the fix for Spain's zombie banks. Dan Amoss assesses whether this will be only a "down payment" [*]Three years in a row? Greg Guenthner with a chart showing U.S. stocks at a turning point [*]What if all that "record corporate cash" was a myth? Barry Ritholtz with disquieting details from a new Fed report [*]In which Chris Mayer fancies himself a KGB agent: Our globe-trotting correspondent's first 5 dispatch from Mongolia [*]Two ways to measure the dollar's value... skepticism about the "productivity" miracle made possible by IT breakthroughs... a possible explanation for the man whose paid-up home nearly landed on an auction site... and more! [/LIST] Well, now... This might be the shortest-lived pop from a "Europe-is-fixed" announcement yet. The Dow gapped up 85 points on the open. As we write, it's surrendered all 85 of those points... and 40 more for good measure. Which isn't nearly as entertain...

Eric Sprott Interview Posted: 11 Jun 2012 09:23 AM PDT Interview with Eric Sprott just after Bernanke's speech last week, covers Europe's state as well as gold and Eric's favorite silver. See full interviews here.

Ten-Point Model for Picking Mining Winners: Dr. Michael Berry Posted: 11 Jun 2012 08:30 AM PDT The Gold Report: The Gold/Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) ratio recently surpassed its high in 2008, slightly crossing 11 and peaked in the high 10s at the bottom in 2008. Do you think we have put in a bottom? Michael Berry: If I were 100% sure, I would be a very wealthy person. I think we're close to a bottom here. Gold is too important. The long-term secular bull markets, such as we've seen in gold and silver and in fact in many of the metals, do not end this way. They end with a parabolic move upward. That is why I don't think this is the end of the gold bull market at all. I think it's probably a welcome reprieve. But ultimately, if we are not at the bottom, we're fairly close to it. TGR: You testify to the Federal Reserve Board twice a year. In the last meeting, was there any indication of more easing on the way? MB: There is every indication of more easing; there is every necessity of more easing. But the Fed is divided. Some of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents an...

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Erases Midday Losses and Ends Higher Posted: 11 Jun 2012 08:19 AM PDT Gold climbed $8.44 to $1603.04 in Asia before it fell back to as low as $1581.60 by about 10AM EST in New York, but it then climbed back higher for most of the rest of trade and ended with a gain of 0.35%. Silver rose to $28.956 in Asia before it dropped back to $28.299, but it also rallied back higher in late trade and ended unchanged on the day.

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