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- Synergy Pharmaceuticals May Be Ready To Roll
- Industrial Demand For Silver Declining
- Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction
- Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet);Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming?
- Gold signals trouble ahead
- Why Has Gold Fallen In Price And What Is The Outlook?
- Obama's Five Trillion Dollar Lie
- Mining Stocks: Will the Downturn Last?
- Is GDX A Trampoline?
- Silver a great business to be in for the next 50 years at leas
- China trumps India to lead oriental gold rus
- Gold Stocks: The Big Picture
- Swiss Parliament Examines ‘Gold Franc’ Currency Today
- CEO Calls for $3,000+ Gold for the First Time Ever
- How to Buy Gold and Silver Bullion
- MAP6-Spécial Euro-BRICS ! Partenariat Euro-BRICS : En route pour le monde d’après la crise, par Franck Biancheri
- Demand for Gold Rises but Analysts See 'Another Leg Lower'
- The Real Price of Gold Holds the Cards for Gold and Gold Shares
- What Volume Tells Us about Gold Stocks
- Managed Money Short Positioning High for Gold, Silver
- The People Have Spoken and Precious Metals Will Soar
- Numerous Negative Reports
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 22 2012
- Links, 5/22/12
- Silver Update: “Random Walk” – 5.21.12
- Silver: Paper VS Physical
| Synergy Pharmaceuticals May Be Ready To Roll Posted: 22 May 2012 06:27 AM PDT By VFC: Synergy Pharmaceuticals (SGYP) ran to over seven dollars last month on increasing volume as the company's billion dollar potential took shape and numerous analysts jumped on board with encouraging write-ups and bold price predictions. Synergy also received a boost when its chief competitor, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) received a setback at the FDA that allows SGYP an extra three months to play catch up in the race to commercialization for each company's respective product candidate, both of which target the same indication. Synergy's product Plecanatide, however, has a much more favorable side effect profile, making the Ironwood setback that much more of a key factor when discussing future market potential. Both products, Synergy's Plecanatide and Ironwood's Linaclotide, are being developed to treat chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) and constipation-predominant irritable bowel syndrome (IBS-C). Linaclotide is already before the FDA for review, although the review was delayed by three months, as mentioned before, Complete Story » |
| Industrial Demand For Silver Declining Posted: 22 May 2012 06:20 AM PDT By Simit Patel: According to a recent document published by the Silver Institute (pdf), industrial demand for silver is falling. The table below, taken from the Silver Institute's publication, tells the story. (Click to enlarge) So what does this mean for silver prices, silver stocks (SIL) and silver ETFs like SLV and PSLV? Well, the table does show that monetary demand (listed as "coins and medals") is rising, and that this is offsetting the decline in industrial demand. But, as I've noted before, silver is inferior to gold as a monetary asset. Which begs the question: Is the increase in monetary demand in silver justified and sustainable? In the United States, the state of Utah has taken the step of re-monetizing gold AND silver. Will other states, and more importantly other countries and supranational economic zones, follow? I'm a bit skeptical. If someone somewhere returns to a commodity-backed currency, I believe gold and Complete Story » |
| Silver: ETFs And 5 Miners Valuated For Direction Posted: 22 May 2012 05:43 AM PDT By Steven Bauer: This article will focus on Silver & Gold and the ETF, iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). However, I am pulling away from that theory and will likely treat them separately in the future. My recommendation for silver and gold is to continue to hold cash in all precious metal securities. Investors often take the position that silver and gold, over time work as an inflation hedge. In my last article on gold, I suggest that this position or thought carry some meaningful time periods of argument. You might want to view the very long-term chart of gold in this article. Misconceptions of facts and data can be very expensive! Silver mine production rose for the ninth successive year in 2011, to a record of 761.6 Moz (23,689 t). However, production fell off at several large operations, including the world's two largest primary mines, Cannington and Fresnillo. Complete Story » |
| Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet);Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming? Posted: 22 May 2012 04:12 AM PDT |
| Posted: 22 May 2012 04:10 AM PDT goldmoney |
| Why Has Gold Fallen In Price And What Is The Outlook? Posted: 22 May 2012 04:07 AM PDT |
| Obama's Five Trillion Dollar Lie Posted: 22 May 2012 03:32 AM PDT
from theeconomiccollapseblog.com: Why isn't the U.S. economy in a depression right now? The number one reason is because the federal government has stolen more than five trillion dollars from future generations since Barack Obama was elected and has used that money to pump up our grossly inflated standard of living. Whether the federal government spends money wisely or foolishly, the truth is that the vast majority of it still ends up in the pockets of the American people who then use it to buy the things they need for their daily lives. If the U.S. government had not borrowed and spent an extra five trillion dollars that we did not have over the past several years, we would be in the middle of a rip-roaring economic depression right now. So any talk that Barack Obama is "improving the economy" is a total farce. It is a five trillion dollar lie. The reality is that Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress have been stealing trillions of dollars from future generations in order to make things tolerable in the present. If the federal government adopted a balanced budget next year, the debt-fueled prosperity that we are currently enjoying would start disappearing very rapidly and all hell would break loose in America. At this point, the U.S. national debt is over 15.7 trillion dollars. When Ronald Reagan took office it was less than a trillion dollars. If you were to divide the national debt up equally, it would come to more than $50,000 for every man, woman and child in the United States. So the share of the national debt for an average family of four would be about $200,000. Keep on reading @ theeconomiccollapseblog.com |
| Mining Stocks: Will the Downturn Last? Posted: 22 May 2012 03:14 AM PDT
from moneymorning.com: Over the last twelve months mining stocks have substantially underperformed the market. In fact, the Standard and Poor's Metals and Mining select industry index (INDEXSP: SPSIMM) is off 35% in the past year, while the overall market is up 2.5%. Admittedly commodities prices are down, but only by 14% in the last year. Meanwhile, the cost of some commodities — notably gold prices — are much higher than they were. Given the buoyancy of global monetary policy, this is surprising. For investors, the big question is: will the downturn in mining stocks last? It truth, though, when you look more closely at operating numbers, the weakness in commodity shares is easier to explain. Mining Stocks: Breaking Down Barrick Gold For example, Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), a gold and copper miner that is generally well regarded, posted first quarter earnings which were up just 3% from the previous year. That was a surprisingly weak performance given that its gold sales price was up 22% — even though its copper price realized was down 11%. Keep on reading @ moneymorning.com |
| Posted: 22 May 2012 03:12 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: 1. Horizontal support & resistance (HSR) is a very powerful tool. Most technicians use it to try to figure out if a given price area is holding or falling. I use HSR lines to define zones where I want to accumulate great assets, because great assets are wealth itself. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Silver a great business to be in for the next 50 years at leas Posted: 22 May 2012 03:10 AM PDT
from mineweb.com: There has been a lot of talk in recent months about both the monetary role of precious metals and investment demand for silver. For Hecla Mining President and CEO, Phil Baker, while the investment side of the market is important, it is the technological markets for the metal that are more exciting. Speaking on Mineweb's Metals Weekly podcast, Baker said the silver market today can best be compared to where it was 100 years ago, when photographic demand was just beginning to grow. "Hecla has been a silver mining company for 120 years – it was a great business to be in until the early 1980s and it was a terrible business to be in for the next 20 years. We're now back in a phase where it will be a great business to be in for the next 50 years at least." Keep on reading @ mineweb.com |
| China trumps India to lead oriental gold rus Posted: 22 May 2012 03:01 AM PDT
from irishtimes.com: THERE ARE strong cultural and religious reasons why India has traditionally been the world's biggest buyer of gold, but China is poised to overtake the subcontinent this year as its biggest source of demand. Between them, China and India account for more than half of all the gold bought globally. Inflation fears and a dearth of useful investment outlets means China looks set to be the biggest buyer of gold in 2012. Gold consumption rose 7 per cent to a record 255.2 metric tonnes in the first quarter, despite the global slowdown, which puts China on track to overtake India this year, the World Gold Council said last week. China is already the number one producer of gold. Demand for bullion in China could jump by as much as 30 per cent this year to between 900 and 1,000 metric tonnes, from 769.8 metric tonnes last year. The character of gold buying in India and China is very different. Indians buy gold for cultural, often religious, reasons, while in China it's basically seen as a safe haven and a solid bet. "Investors [in China] remain wary of high inflation rates and property market restrictions continue to drive demand," the council said. Keep on reading @ irishtimes.com |
| Posted: 22 May 2012 02:49 AM PDT
It's time to update our long-term weekly charts showing how the gold sector, as represented by the Barrons Gold Mining Index (BGMI), has performed in US$ terms, gold bullion terms and S&P500 (SPX) terms. The first of our long-term charts shows the BGMI since 1964 and includes a 200-week moving average (the red line). The peaks of the three major rallies that composed the 1960s-1970s bull market are labeled "1″, "2″ and "3″. A visual comparison of the current bull market and the bull market of the 1960s-1970s suggests that the early-2008 peak is equivalent to the early-1968 peak. Consequently, the early-2008 peak has also been labeled "1″.
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| Swiss Parliament Examines ‘Gold Franc’ Currency Today Posted: 22 May 2012 01:51 AM PDT gold.ie |
| CEO Calls for $3,000+ Gold for the First Time Ever Posted: 22 May 2012 01:33 AM PDT
from kingworldnews.com: Today one of the top CEO's in the world told King World News that gold will trade over $3,000 within twenty four months. Sean Boyd, CEO of $6.5 billion Agnico Eagle, also stated that prior to this, "I've never been at the $3,000+ number, ever, in 27 years." Boyd also discussed the mining shares, but first, here is what Boyd had to say about the action in the gold market: "I think you're in a situation right now where the problems in Europe are front page and it has hurt the euro. So the US dollar is stronger. If you look at the US dollar, that story is on page 3 or 4. It will be a front page story soon. The debt ceiling has to be raised and we really haven't fixed a lot of the issues, whether it's in the US or in Europe." Sean Boyd continues: Keep on reading @ kingworldnews.com |
| How to Buy Gold and Silver Bullion Posted: 22 May 2012 01:30 AM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: So you have decided to convert some paper banknotes into alternative money such as silver or gold. The process is simple; it is just like converting dollars to any other currency. The first order of business is to select a dealer. In some countries, commercial banks can perform this service, but all over the world, it is coin shops or dealers who are the banks. In order to keep inventory, take on short-term price risk, and provide varying levels of service (hours of operation, market analysis), the dealer charges a fee for the conversion. The fee is called a premium, and it is usually a small amount over the quoted exchange rate (sometimes dubbed the spot price). This premium is common to any type of exchange: whether exchanging dollars for groceries, or dollars for yen, or dollars for gold, the retailer must make a fair premium to remain in business. Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
| Posted: 22 May 2012 12:16 AM PDT Edito MAP6-Spécial Euro-BRICS - Mai 2012  Téléchargez MAP6-Spécial Euro-BRICS (gratuit) Un numéro spécial Euro-BRICS réalisé en partenariat avec l'Université MGIMO de Moscou Avec ce numéro spécial de MAP consacré à la future coopération Euro-BRICS, LEAP/E2020 poursuit son exploration du chemin qui conduit au monde d'après la crise. En l'occurrence, avec le partenariat Euro-BRICS, il s'agit d'anticiper les processus qui vont permettre de bâtir la gouvernance du XXI° siècle et permettre un rééquilibrage pacifique des relations entre les puissances-clés de la planète. Si nous avons choisi de publier ce numéro juste après l'élection présidentielle française, ce n'est pas un hasard. En effet, la défaite de Nicolas Sarkozy marque la fin de la parenthèse américaniste de la France qui a entraîné ce pays à s'aligner intégralement depuis 5 ans sur les positions géopolitiques de l'axe Washington/Londres/Tel Aviv. La victoire de François Hollande marque au contraire, non seulement le retour à une vision géopolitique gaullo-mitterandienne (vision d'une Europe indépendante), mais aussi l'affirmation de la nécessité, voire de l'urgence, d'explorer de nouvelles relations avec les BRICS. Comme on pourra le constater dans ce numéro de MAP, la coopération Euro-BRICS est déjà bien avancée dans de nombreux domaines (science, technologie, économie, …) mais il lui manque encore un référentiel politico-diplomatique clair qui seul permettra à cette relation d'avoir un impact constructif sur l'évolution du monde. L'Allemagne a déjà ouvert la voie en 2011 au Conseil de Sécurité de l'ONU, à propos de l'intervention militaire en Libye, en s'abstenant au côté de la Chine, de la Russie et du Brésil. Mais, du fait des positions américanistes prises par la France, rien de structurel ne pouvait émerger en la matière pour approfondir les intérêts communs de l'Euroland et des BRICS. Pourtant, de la crise économique et financière mondiale à la crise des dettes souveraines dans l'Euroland en passant par l'évidente impasse des aventures militaires occidentales, les sujets de convergence sont nombreux entre Européens, d'une part, et Russes, Chinois, Indiens, Brésiliens et Sud- Africains, de l'autre. Et le changement de pouvoir en France va justement permettre à l'Euroland, ou au moins à un noyau de pays pionniers autour du tandem franco-allemand, de poser d'ici 2013 les bases d'un vrai partenariat stratégique Euro-BRICS. Bien entendu, comme dans tout partenariat, il y a aussi de nombreux sujets de friction et il existe des désaccords. Mais c'est justement pour cette raison qu'un tel dialogue est nécessaire. S'il existait un référentiel politico-diplomatique Euro-BRICS, les tensions autour de la taxe carbone européenne sur les compagnies aériennes non européennes n'envenimeraient pas depuis des mois les relations entre Bruxelles d'une part, et Pékin, Moscou, New Delhi, … d'autre part. En effet, un "facilitateur" aurait depuis longtemps été nommé au niveau européen pour trouver un terrain d'entente entre les différents partenaires, notamment au niveau de l'Organisation de l'Aviation Civile Internationale (OACI), au lieu de laisser la Commission européenne enfoncer l'UE dans une position intenable à terme. Le facilitateur permettrait ainsi de contourner la posture idéologique de la Commissaire Connie Hedegaard (1) en charge du dossier à la Commission et d'éviter la montée en puissance d'un affrontement qui ne peut que desservir la coopération entre l'Europe et les BRICS. Au-delà de cet exemple et de nombreuses coopérations bilatérales Euro-BRICS, c'est certainement au sein du G20 que le rôle d'un tel partenariat se fera sentir dès 2013. Sur les questions de la réforme du système monétaire international et notamment de la devise mondiale de référence comme sur les problèmes de contrôle des grands opérateurs financiers privés, l'Euroland et les BRICS ont des intérêts stratégiques fortement convergents. Et ensemble, ils constituent une large majorité du G20. C'est donc d'eux et d'eux seuls que peut émerger une vision du monde d'après la crise et une dynamique permettant de la mettre en oeuvre. Car, comme l'a souligné LEAP/E2020 dès 2009 et le G20 de Londres, sans remise en cause du rôle du Dollar US et sans contrôle sévère des grandes institutions financières privées, il n'y aura pas de sortie de crise possible. Or, en ce mois de Mai 2012, pour la première fois depuis le début de la crise mondiale, les conditions nous paraissent désormais réunies pour pouvoir avancer rapidement en matière de coopération stratégique Euro-BRICS et faire ainsi progresser les chances de surmonter la crise actuelle. LEAP/E2020 et le MGIMO, avec toute l'équipe de MAP, nous espérons donc que ce numéro spécial de MAP vous aidera à vous faire une idée du chemin à parcourir dans les années à venir et vous offrira une vision plus claire des grands changements géopolitiques que les prochaines années vont apporter par rapport au monde que nous connaissons depuis 1945. Dernier élément, ce numéro spécial Euro-BRICS de MAP sera disponible non seulement en Français, Anglais, Allemand et Espagnol comme les numéros habituels, mais aussi en Portugais, Russe et Chinois. --------- Notes: (1) A ce sujet, je rappelle que la même Connie Hedegaard, alors ministre danoise de l'environnement, avait dû abandonner en Décembre 2009 la présidence du Sommet de Copenhague sur le Climat du fait d'une révolte générale contre sa gestion des négociations. Un "détail" qui ne devrait pas échapper aux Européens dans leurs discussions actuelles avec les BRICS au sujet de cette taxe carbone. Source : Guardian, 16.12.09 Téléchargez MAP6-Spécial Euro-BRICS (gratuit) --------------- SOMMAIRE EDITO - Partenariat Euro-BRICS : En route pour le monde d'après la crise, par Franck Biancheri (p.3) INSTITUTIONS - Résultats du quatrième sommet des BRICS et perspectives de coopération entre les BRICS et l'Union européenne, par Prof. Valery Vorobiev (p.5) REFERENTIEL - Conclusions du séminaire fondateur du processus Euro-BRICS, par LEAP (p.7) PARTENARIAT STRATEGIQUE - Perspectives pour une coopération stratégique Euro-BRICS : un regard du Brésil, par Alexander Zhebit (p.9) GEOPOLITIQUE - La Russie et le Brésil dans le groupe BRICS, ambitions pour l'avenir, par Ludmila Okouneva (p.12) ECONOMIE - Le rôle de la coopération UE-BRICS, par Chandrasekharan Jayanthi (p.14) COMMERCE - La coopération des BRICS au service de la formation d'une politique commerciale et les priorités de coopération BRICS et Euro-BRICS, par Dr. Tatiana M. Isachenko (p.20) SYSTEME MONETAIRE - Les décideurs chinois à deux doigts de libéraliser la balance des capitaux, par Zhu Changzheng (p.22) EDUCATION - Perspectives de collaboration dans le domaine de la connaissance, par Anna Makarenko (p.25) DOSSIER : AEROSPATIALE . La voie européenne vers l'Espace passe par la Chine et la Russie, par Stefan Hilgermann (p.27) . L'Eurobrics et les technologies de souveraineté : le spatial, par Jean-Paul Baquiast (p.29) . D'Europe, de BRICS, d'Espace : une contribution au débat sur la coopération Euro-BRICS en matière spatiale, par Tanja Masson-Zwaan (p.31) Téléchargez MAP6-Spécial Euro-BRICS (gratuit) |
| Demand for Gold Rises but Analysts See 'Another Leg Lower' Posted: 21 May 2012 11:47 PM PDT Wholesale prices to buy gold fell further from $1,600 an ounce in London on Tuesday morning, finding a floor at $1575 as European stock markets rose for the second day running after falling for two weeks in succession. |
| The Real Price of Gold Holds the Cards for Gold and Gold Shares Posted: 21 May 2012 10:22 PM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: We often write about the real price of gold (RPG) as it is a leading macro indicator and leading indicator for gold stock fundamentals. The RPG is simply a measurement of Gold in terms of various markets such as commodities, stocks or currencies. If the RPG is broadly outperforming then it could be signaling credit stress and even an economic contraction. If equities and commodities are outperforming Gold then it signals an improving economic environment and an improving credit environment. We also note that a strengthening RPG in itself is a catalyst for improving margins for gold miners. Furthermore, since a rising RPG is a contractionary signal, it can also be a catalyst for Fed action. The RPG appears to have bottomed and looks likely to trend higher in the coming months. Note that during the financial crisis of 2008, the real price of gold began rising several months before gold itself. In the chart below we plot gold, gold/commodities, gold/foreign currencies, and gold/stocks. gold/commodities bottomed in June while gold bottomed relative to both currencies and stocks in September. Turning to the present, we see that gold/commodities has maintained an uptrend during a corrective period while gold priced in foreign currencies has rebounded from support and while gold relative to stocks may have just bottomed. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| What Volume Tells Us about Gold Stocks Posted: 21 May 2012 10:20 PM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst I've read articles from more than one analyst claiming that gold stocks are down on low volume, implying there's a lack of interest in precious metals. While on the surface that seems like an obvious statement, their point is that most of the recent volume has been coming from sellers and thus exaggerating the recent decline. I decided to test this hypothesis, because if correct, it has investment implications, starting with the fact that at some point you run out of sellers; and if and when buyers return, the ensuing rise could be spectacular. I also wanted to compare volume now to the waterfall decline in 2008. If volume is starting to spike now like it did then, it might give us some additional clues about our current environment and what to expect going forward. So let's take a look. The following chart shows the average weekly volume of the 10 largest gold producers that trade in North America, along with the daily price movements of GDX, the Gold Miners Index. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Managed Money Short Positioning High for Gold, Silver Posted: 21 May 2012 10:09 PM PDT
from gotgoldreport.com: Taking a break from the grueling, demanding and intense quest for things with fins and scales for a half day* today, we thought we would share with everyone a couple of the more interesting charts which surfaced in the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) commitments of traders report (COT). The report was released Friday, May 18, with data as of Tuesday, May 15. According to the CFTC, as of Tuesday of last week, large traders the CFTC classes as Managed Money ("MMs," hedge funds, commodity trading advisors and other funds that trade futures on behalf of others), increased their short positions in gold futures by 9,837 contracts to show 32,822 contracts short. That is the highest pure short position for the "funds" since September 16, 2008, during the height of the 2008 panic with gold then in the $770s. One week later, on September 23, gold closed at $891.90, about $122 higher as the MMs covered or offset more than 20,000 of those short positions (not a misprint). Keep on reading @ gotgoldreport.com |
| The People Have Spoken and Precious Metals Will Soar Posted: 21 May 2012 10:07 PM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: The elections in Greece and France have shown that in democratic societies the people are the ultimate deciders of how well the best-laid economic plans will work out in the long run. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Leonard Melman, veteran precious metals analyst and publisher of The Melman Report, talks about the implications of the recent European elections on the prospects for the gold and silver markets. He also discusses the huge rebound he anticipates for the metals markets later this year. TGR: It seems that economists can plan and recommend, and politicians can negotiate and maneuver, and pundits can analyze and predict all they want, yet when the people don't want to play along, it can all mean nothing. Of course, we're talking about the elections in France and Greece. What's going on? Leonard Melman: What's going on is that the monetary authorities in Europe have decided that austerity is the only way out of the financial dilemma, which I find kind of amusing, because it is their Keynesian activities that created those policies in the first place. Their decision now is that austerity, which is cutting back government programs, is the only thing that will work. The problem is that the public doesn't want their government benefits cut back. So, the message from the French people was that Nicolas Sarkozy, with his austerity, was no longer their friend and François Hollande, with his promise to end austerity, is now the new President. In Greece it's even more dramatic. Greece has been a funny culture for about 40 years living in a dreamland, thinking that nobody has to wo Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Posted: 21 May 2012 09:43 PM PDT The market indicators are moving through long term averages. Data as of May 17 day end. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12,442.49 -156.05 on rising volume and falling momentum. Support is 12,250 and resistance is the 200-day moving average at 12,475. The close was under all moving averages signaling more selling on Friday. Should there be some PPT market propping, we would expect a close on or near the 200-day moving average at 12,475. There were numerous negative reports from both the USA and Europe. Most of the larger stock indexes fell to their 200-day averages, which is the last major support before new and faster selling of shares. Some of the key cyclicals like CAT and JOY, both big in mining and material handling could be selling further. In down markets, the funds exit those holding the most taking profits first to hang on to gains. Watch for the Dow to touch and support near 12,250 on Friday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1304.86 -19.94 four points above our previous forecast. However, next we see more selling by big traders on higher volume like today trading on falling momentum. The price of 1300 could hold for Friday but, not we think without some PPT propping and buying. Should this index be left to its own devices, we forecast the price to move down again toward 1250 with an interim stop and support at 1275. Price is under all moving averages and worse, the close was -10 points under the 200-day moving average. More selling should be coming on Friday. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 595.89 right on the 200-day moving average for support at 595.02. There are a few more big companies that have not bottomed out on the technicals leaving this index open to more selling on Friday and, perhaps next Monday. A drop under 585 could take the price to 575-585 support by Monday evening. Considering our cycle dates, stocks' selling could continue until a new and lower support-base arrives in June on the 15th to the 18th. This could take the price down to 565-550 support. This is an election year so we do not expect a crash now, but rather a normal, profit-taking, selling event. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2509.05 -52.51 on falling momentum and higher volumes. The Nasdaq had its share of selling like the others but our prediction of 2500 support managed to hold-up. The Facebook IPO was a major prop for the Nasdaq index on volume and price. Some investors had been selling Apple and a few other successful tech shares to reinvest cash in Facebook. We think the Facebook offering was cyclically positioned to enable several large investors to exit their positions before the end of 2012. The close today was above the 200-day moving average at 2484.11 and just under the 50-day average at 2648.36. This index should sell more on Friday to a support at 2484-2500 and hold for the weekend. Monday's are buy stocks' days and sell bonds' days. We think that without any PPT propping, the entire stocks' sector will continue selling, with the Nasdaq selling the smallest amount. A mild down day is coming Friday. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 148.11 +1.61 as the bonds go higher into nosebleed territory. There is room for the PMO momentum to rise even more on this chart but we are now on new and higher prices. The exit from European currencies and paper is causing this buying. The Euro currency has next lower supports at 126.50, 124.00, 122.50, 120.00, and 118.00. With the Greek credit solution deferred until after the June 17 Greek elections, the 30's can continue to go higher until some major news creates a reversal. This market is now very dangerous for novice traders. Any reasonable notion of successful European credit repairs could create a hard pivot reversal with lower support back at 145.50. Expect more pressure to long side but smart traders should technically position themselves and watch carefully for a very nice short trade as this market is becoming strongly overbought. Look for more pressure to the buy side until the middle of June, 2012 followed by a later correction. XAU: Closed at 147.69 +5.35 in a decisive reversal as gold was oversold down to 1535 major support. Gold and treasuries came back up on falling stocks today. While many of juniors, intermediates and some senior shares remain down or flat, Newmont, being a major exchange listing, received a lot of new buying activity. This market sold to the chart bottom including momentum and the important metal-to-shares ratio. That ratio finally stopped selling and perked-up with a tiny but visible move. The next resistance is the 20-day average at 155.05 with interim resistance at 150.00. A 50% normal retracement would take the index back to 180. We cannot see that price until July or, perhaps even this September depending upon other outside market, mitigating factors. However, the new trend is in place to go long albeit gradually. Expect more buying ahead in the next few days. Gold: Closed at $1573.20 +35.00 with support at 1565 and resistance at 1575. The price remains under all moving averages but it appears the bottom is in and the new up trend is underway. The longer view retracement, after all this selling would take the price back to 1732.50-1748.50. Price momentum is still headed lower but that signal is slow and should pivot reverse to long next week. The bear flag on the daily chart began from a top last September, 2011 and was broken up-long this past January only to fall and fail again. This new support should hold up or, in the alternative under 1535, we could go much lower to 1450-1400, which I do not forecast. We are forecasting a mild rally of 50-100 points through June with an expected further, stronger rally in July on faster inflation and potentially veiled-stealth QE-3 announcements providing more market power. Friday should be a buy gold day to $1585-1595. Silver: Closed at $28.04 +0.88 after posting a wide bull double bottom last December and this week. Silver remains under all moving averages but it has found a base and a new and mild rally. Our next resistance is the 20-day moving average at $29.57 with higher resistance at $30.08. Support is $27.85 and of course the much lower major support at 26.48. We now have a nest of several resistance points for silver between $30.00 and $35.00. Technically, a stronger bull retracement could take the price back up to $38.08-38.15 major resistance. Expect more mild silver buying until the end of May. US Dollar: Closed at 81.44 +0.01 with the dollar resisting at 81.50 where it touched that price in January. The price is mostly stalled but it can rise to 82.00-82.50 on hard nearby resistance. If and when Greece concludes its problems, the dollar should react strongly. We are now seeing bank runs in Greece and that problem is spreading to nearby larger nations. The Euro is down hard and its companion, the Swiss Franc is lower as well but, should support soon as a better alternative to the Euro. Dollar momentum is up along with the Japanese Yen. We forecast the dollar will rise at least through the end of May followed by a mild correction. The Greek elections on June 17 could have a strong impact on the Euro and its inverse trade the US Dollar. While oil producing nations and some others are moving to trade using barter and other non-dollar currencies, we do not see that as much of factor at this time. It is a new and small trend, yes, but not a real factor for now. The dollar should rise to 81.50-82.00 resistance next with the Euro selling to 126.50 major support. Crude Oil: Closed at 92.90 +0.00 on falling momentum as this market sold down with other commodities on less demand for commercial commodities. Reserves remain high for both crude oil and especially for natural gas, which recently had a small rally before it pulled back. The close today signaled a neutral market strongly supported at 92.50. Should oil sell under 92.50 and hold, the next lower support is 88.50-84.50 in that trading range. The current trading range is 92.50 to 96.50, which we think should hold for about 4-6 weeks this spring. Crude oil should resist next at 94.00-96.50. CRB: Closed at 289.55 +0.20 almost on our prior forecast of 290.00 support. Momentum is still falling but that signal should catch-up next week. Resistance and support is 290.00 even. There was a trading gap when the CRB sold down, which can be filled next, moving the price toward 295 resistance. There is also resistance just above 295 at 296.52 on the 20-day average. As crude oil moves higher with precious metals, grains and copper, the CRB could rally to 296.00 resistance and then major resistance at 300. -Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, May 22 2012 Posted: 21 May 2012 09:00 PM PDT |
| Posted: 21 May 2012 08:55 PM PDT Cory Booker's Political Career Guided By Top Wall St Donors To Romney's Super PAC, Republic Report In Spain, Jobless Find a Refuge Off the Books, New York Times (h/t Martha) J.P. Morgan Suspends Share Buyback Wall Street Journal Wall Street Should Stop Trying to Gut Financial Reform, by Rep. Maxine Waters in The Hill. Also, zombies should stop eating brains. And scorpions should stop stinging frogs. And drug addicts should just say no. And yada yada. Railroad worker crushed by roll of newsprint at Inquirer printing plant, Philadelpha Inquirer Europe is driving full-tilt, foot on the pedal, into a brick wall, by conservative London Mayor Boris Johnson Not so organic – USDA accused of conspiracy with agribusiness insiders RT The Obama Administration and Chutzpah Info/Law… shocker that Obama lied about his transparency agenda. A Different Take on Facebook, PIMCO CEO Mohamed El Erian… Hey are you bored running a trillion plus dollar bond fund or something? JPMorgan Counterparty Platt Says Bank's Loss May Widen Bloomberg Double trouble at JP Morgan: trader's losses could exceed $7bn The Independent Secret Central Bank Aid Props Up Greek Banks CNBC LPS: Mortgage delinquencies increased slightly in April Calculated Risk (Jaws theme…) Facebook 11% Drop Means Morgan Stanley Gets Blame Bloomberg * * * D – 109 and counting. * Lambert here: Chaos is defined not so much by its disorder as by the infinite speed with which every form taking shape in it vanishes. – Gilles DeLeuze and Felix Guattari, What Is Philosophy? NATO summit. Obama: "And the Chicago police — Chicago's finest did a great job under, you know, some significant pressure and a lot of scrutiny." "My Kind of Town": image (via). "'Get the old lady to the back!' someone yells (:40). 'She wants to be in the front!' comes the reply." What we need! "I am returning my medal today because I want to live by my conscience, rather than be a prisoner of it." And what we need, too. Our famously free press propagates the CPD's crowd estimate: 2,000. Pictures say that's low. (Interestingly, CPD estimate derived from surveillance cameras. If the estimate — incredible as this may seem — is actually honest, that means camera coverage is lousy.) OccupyChicago: 3,000- 5,000. The Guardian cites the density-based Jacobs multiplier, then splits the difference between CPD and organizers: 3,500 – 6000. The Guardian's first commenter was there, and does the multiplication: 7,600 – 13,800. Montreal. Photos: "Tuitiion [sic] fee protests – May 21." If "tuition fee protests" is the frame, that's a loser. However, Gazoo columnist Peggy Curran uses "red square" movement, which is much fuller of win, red squares being a wearable, non-mask article of clothing, a color (as in "color revolution"), and a useful symbolic geometry. It also has an unmistakable (if virtual) Occupy connotation, since Occupations tend to take place in city squares. Squares are also fractal. "When Arcade Fire [Yo! Professor!] backed Mick Jagger for three songs on SNL…, those red patches the band were wearing weren't fashion statements, but very pointed acts of protest." (Gotta say I prefer this icon to a 60s-style clenched fist — even if Otpor did use it.) "Yesterday's unrest reached a climax with a blaze of [half-a-dozen] plastic traffic cones and construction materials lit Saturday during a melee on a busy downtown street." Teh stupid, so but and Timothy McVeigh (or, for that matter, clinic violence) we're not talking here. Today: Students march peacefully in holiday protest. Holiday? Probably no police over-time, so there weren't any agent provocateurs to set traffic cones on fire or demolish the pavement. Remember: Always check their shoes! 1300 arrests over the life of the red square movement so far (United States: 7,223 for Occupy). I'm just one of the tourists: "We didn't actually know what was going on really at the start because…we didn't actually understand the banners and stuff." CA-2. Congressional Candidate Andy Caffrey: "If I have to do it, I'll smoke a joint on the Capitol steps and get arrested to draw national attention to what's going on." Obama's lawyerly wording on marijuana. As ever: "I know that you believe you understand what you hope I said, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant." OH (Swing state). During the referendum, Romney came out in favor of SB5. Intriguingly, "On the same day last November when 62 percent of voters stood up for collective bargaining [and voted in SB-5], an even larger number—66 percent—backed a referendum item that was widely seen as a symbolic rebuke to Obamacare. " Well, there's no reason why support for unions should translate into support for a mandate to purchase a defective product (private health insurance) with money people don't have. MI (Swing State). "Green" Mayor's Parkland-for-Train station scheme underwritten in part by slush fund. A D, if that makes a difference at this point. MV (Swing state). Kirtland Air Force Base jet fuel spill 3 times larger at 24,000,000 gallons? WI (swing state). "For fraud to equal "one or two points" in that election [as Walker says] you'd have needed 30,000-60,000 phony ballots. The proven fraud actually amounted to 0.0007 percent of all votes." I wish the Rs would stop lying about this. Peirce: "If the Democrats can't recall a governor of Wisconsin who breaks unions, wrecks public education, bleeds the state white on jobs and messes around with deer-hunting [!!], they're more hopeless than I thought." Has L'il Debbie kicked in that $500K yet? Inside Baseball. "And those on the political extremes, especially those on the far right, tend to have the most simple speech patterns." Indubitably! Joshua Green proffers shop-worn filibuster alibi: "Had the filibuster not applied [from 2009 on], the United States would have a market-based system to control carbon emissions … a public option … [Women] would have broader legal recourse against their employers. Billionaires would not be able to manipulate the political system from behind a veil of anonymity." Well, when Obama had a mandate, and the Ds had control of the Senate, they could have used the "nuclear option" to abolish the filibuster with a simple majority vote. So that means Obama didn't want any of those things. Right, Joshua? "Indeed, the irony of the [winger] race war narrative's latest flare-up is that it comes at a time when national crime rates have reached historic lows — including reported hate crimes against whites." Auctioning a vial of Reagan's blood: "I was a real fan of Reaganomics and felt that Pres. Reagan himself would rather see me sell it rather than donating it." Elizabeth Warren. Pierce on the Cherokee flap: "There is something grim and nasty at work here that she cannot be too nice to see. And there is something grim and nasty at work here that local Democrats ought to recognize before they start sniping at her, and something national Democrats ought to recognize as a force to be defeated. Yeah, right." Green Party. Jill Stein: "[S]uch a thing as ending unemployment would never occur to Washington politicians because their corporate backers depend on the threat of unemployment to keep wages down." Conor Friedersdorf's response, in toto: "It's a deeply confused claim." Which is why he's got a job, I guess. Libertarian Party. LP of Delaware applauds Ron Paul, endorses Green Party candidate for Senate. Robama vs. Obomney. "Jobs!!" and WaPo's Fact Checker: "There's no doubt that Bush owns an unimpressive record on job creation. But Obama comes in either last, second-to-last or in the bottom half among presidents since the Great Depression, depending on which way you look at the number." "White House counterterror chief John Brennan has seized the lead in guiding the debate on which terror leaders will be targeted for drone attacks or raids." Of course, Brennan served Bush, he's pro-torture, and he lies about drones. Meaning he's well within Obama's comfort zone. And Pierce, because the man invects with a passion: "Zombie-eyed granny starver." No, he doesn't mean Obama. Romney. "Romney will need to figure out how closely he aligns himself with George W. Bush and other members of his administration, including Mr. Cheney. … [T]he campaign was downright buoyant to announce the Cheney fund-raiser." So Voldemort will get to speak at the RNC after all? Obama. Fighting Romney on economy "[I]s what this campaign is going to be about." Booker on Bain. The Booker quote: "This kind of stuff is nauseating to me on both sides. It's nauseating to the American public. Enough is enough. Stop attacking private equity [Bain], stop attacking Jeremiah Wright." (This is a "Kinsley gaffe," wherein Booker uttered an unspeakable truth about who owns him, and who owns the Ds.) Anna Marie Cox: "This is a little like saying vampires have done a lot to support the coffin industry; it's not wrong but it misses the point." So why'd Booker say it? "[Bain] were among his earliest and most generous backers." Axelrod slaps Booker down: "In this particular instance, he was just wrong. There were specific instances here that speak to an economic theory that isn't the right theory for the country." What, neo-liberalism? RNC launches 'I Stand With Cory' petition. Cheeky! Booker to Maddow: "I'm very upset that I'm being used by the GOP." Well, Corey, if you didn't want to go to Milwaukee, why did you get on the train? * 109 days 'til the Democratic National Convention ends with a chocolate-covered insect eating contest on the floor of the Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC. Yes, JFK's boat. * * * Antidote du jour:
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| Silver Update: “Random Walk” – 5.21.12 Posted: 21 May 2012 08:53 PM PDT |
| Posted: 21 May 2012 08:41 PM PDT Paper VS Physical: A Formula for True Price Discovery from daytradeshow: ~TVR |
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