saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Kinross Gold Corporation Fails To Perform
- Why Return On Invested Capital Is A Better Benchmark Than ROE
- Romney’s Lead Economist Urges Policies that will Cause the Next Financial Crisis
- Two Scenarios For Next Precious Metals Rally, Part II
- Gartman – ‘Abandon Junior Miners’ – Mugs Game
- BIS Trader Removes Gold “interventions” from Bio
- Physical vs. Paper: The Real War
- The Case For Cheap Gold!
- Currency wars will boost gold
- Less “Gold Fever” In China
- One Italian Export Is Soaring: Gold
- Pollock: Wonderful Life, MF, DOJ, & more
- Peter Schiff: Bernanke Is Clueless
- Palladium demand still robust
- BIS trader removes gold interventions from his biography
- 'Gold Wars' by Ferdinand Lips in Spanish
- The War at the End of the US Dollar
- GEAB N°64 is available! Global systemic crisis - France 2012-2014: The big republican earthquake and its international impact
- Silver Miners Building for Breakout: Chris Marchese
- Gold Consolidating Over €1,200/oz As Spanish 10 Year Hits 6.15%
- Poll Positions for Falling Bullion
- Gold Consolidates Over €1,200/oz. on Spanish Yields
- ‘Renewed Market Panic’ as Spain Fears Grow
- Sell Your Stocks, Gradually Build Up Gold
- 50 Surprising Gold Facts
- Does Gold Investing Pay?
- Ag Outlook
- Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 16 2012
- Gold, Silver, and Tipping Point Analysis
- Gold & Silver Wait Patiently for More Easing
| Kinross Gold Corporation Fails To Perform Posted: 16 Apr 2012 06:39 AM PDT Many moons ago we were big fans of Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) and it formed one of the largest elements of our portfolio of gold producing stocks. However, on January 31, 2008, we reduced our exposure to this stock when we sold about 50% of our holding for an average price of $21.96 locking in a profit of about 93.60%. In our view the profit was worth taking and we were left with a stake in Kinross Gold, which cost us virtually nothing. We continued to follow the fortunes of this stock until Thursday, November 11, 2010, when we sold our remaining stake in Kinross Gold for $18.69, commenting that "Our patience has come to an end so we must bid farewell to the Kinross Gold Corporation, today we sold all of our shares taking the cash back to the side lines where we hope to deploy it in such Complete Story » |
| Why Return On Invested Capital Is A Better Benchmark Than ROE Posted: 16 Apr 2012 05:40 AM PDT By YCharts: A company's debt can work for or against investors, depending on whether management turns that money into bigger profits before the loan paybacks just drag down shareholder returns. Return on invested capital figures help investors see whether a company's debt is fueling gains or taking a toll on earnings. ROIC looks at all the money invested into the company, both by shareholders and lenders, to measure how well management uses all that cash to generate profits. YCharts uses a formula of net income averaged over 12 months divided by shareholder equity and long term debt averaged over the past five quarters. (Others may use different time periods.) ROICs are best used as comparisons within sectors rather than as definitive goals. Generally, the companies with the highest ROICs are making more profits out of every dollar invested, and not surprisingly, they often show the biggest share price gains. Consider a few Complete Story » |
| Romney’s Lead Economist Urges Policies that will Cause the Next Financial Crisis Posted: 16 Apr 2012 05:31 AM PDT Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. Cross posted from New Economic Perspectives. Presidential nominees of either U.S. party can secure economic advice from any economist in the world. This makes it all the more amazing and sad that they choose economists with track records of disastrous policy advice. Bill Clinton chose Robert Rubin, George W. Bush chose Gregory Mankiw, Obama chose Lawrence Summers, and Mitt Romney chose Mankiw. Rubin and Summers led the Clinton administration's efforts to gut financial regulation. Mankiw led the efforts under Bush. Collectively, these efforts created the criminogenic environment that produced endemic financial fraud ("green slime").
Mankiw Morality I have often emphasized the importance of George Akerlof and Paul Romer's 1993 article ("Looting: the Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit") to understand the economics of why we suffer epidemics of accounting control fraud and recurrent, intensifying financial crises. Mankiw was the "discussant" when they formally presented their paper. I was also present at their invitation. Mankiw was unconcerned about looting. It was my first introduction to Mankiw morality: "it would be irrational for savings and loans [CEOs] not to loot." I was appalled, but my outrage at Mankiw paled when I observed that the members of the audience, professional economists, were not even made visibly uncomfortable by such a depraved response to elite fraud. CEOs owe fiduciary duties to the shareholders. Mankiw's response to the findings that CEOs were looting their shareholders was to praise the rationality of the fraudulent CEOs (if you don't loot you aren't moral – you're insane). One cannot compete with theoclassical economists' unintentional self-parody. Mankiw Still Loves the Regulatory Race to the Bottom that Breeds Endemic Green Slime Mankiw wrote a column in the New York Times praising competition among governments. I start with a historical note that falsifies Mankiw's claim that competition among governments is desirable. Mankiw makes an historical argument for his claim that competition among governments is desirable and notes that the "founding fathers were no fools." In an odd way, we can thank our immensely successful Constitution to the demonstrated disaster produced by governmental competition engendered by the Articles of Confederation. The States competed vigorously – to aid their merchants at the expense of "foreign" States (their neighboring States). They competed to impose more destructive internal tariffs (and other trade barriers) so aggressively that they crippled commerce. This is one of the principal defects that led the committee appointed to reform the Articles to instead junk them and adopt our Constitution. The Constitution created a nation instead of a confederation. The interstate commerce and supremacy clauses were key provisions of the new Constitution because the framers knew that competition among the States and the new federal government could threaten our nation's survival. In the context of public finance and financial regulation Mankiw's praise for such competition demonstrates that he has learned nothing useful from our recurrent crises. This column discusses why competition among governments in financial regulation leads to the criminogenic financial deregulation that produces the epidemics of green slime that drive our financial crises. I have recently explained, in the context of opposing the JOBS Act, why the "regulatory race to the bottom" is an oxymoron designed by regular morons. Mankiw read these words 19 years ago, but he has never understood what Akerlof and Romer were saying, even though they ended their article with this paragraph in order to emphasize their key policy message.
Competition among governments in the financial deregulation context leads to a "race to the bottom" that produces devastating financial deregulation. The resultant financial deregulation is "bound to produce looting." An economist should have no difficulty understanding this point, for classical economists stressed hundreds of years ago that the government's central function is to prevent crime of force and fraud. Even Ayn Rand called for the government to prevent fraud. Because, as Akerlof and Romer stressed, accounting fraud produces a "sure thing" creditors do not exercise effective "private market discipline" against such frauds. Instead, they rush to fund the frauds' rapid growth. Worse, as executive and professional compensation has become far larger and more perverse, creditors and purchasers can grow wealthy by adopting a "don't ask; don't tell" policy designed to ignore even endemic fraud. Charles Calomiris, who is as culpable as any economists for spreading financial deregulatory dogma globally, suggests that the perpetrators may have deliberately created "plausible deniability."
In combination, deregulation and perverse compensation are so criminogenic that they can produce green slime in such massive amounts that slime dominates massive aspects of finance. Mankiw tries to dress up the question of whether governments should compete as a philosophical dispute about the proper role of government. That is incorrect in the financial regulatory context. The regulators have to serve as the "cops on the beat" – and economics has emphasized for centuries the essential need for the government to provide such a rule of law and limit fraud and violence. We know objectively that Mankiw, Bush, and Romney do not actually favor competition in financial regulation – for none of them opposed the OCC and OTS' scorched earth campaign to preempt state efforts to regulate predatory lending and seek to reduce mortgage fraud. The states attempted to offer a competitive alternative to Mankiw, Greenspan, Bernake, and Bush's indifference to fraud by elites. That competition could have led to vastly better outcomes for the citizens of the States that wished to be most vigorous against fraud and the nation. Mankiw was Chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors during the worst excesses of the federal agencies efforts to prevent the states from regulating entities (e.g., bank holding company affiliates not subject to federal regulation) that spread the green slime through the financial system. He did not oppose preemption. Mankiw and his political patrons do not favor competition in financial regulation – they favor regulation so weak that it will be ineffective. They hate financial regulations that are successful because such regulations challenge their world view that denigrates democratic government and government regulators. Romney's choice of Mankiw, one of the leading architects of and apologists for the crisis, as his leading economic advisor would be a superb issue for Obama to use in his reelection campaign but for one tiny problem. The Obama administration's policies on financial regulation are created by the likes of Rubin, Summers, Geithner, and Bernanke. They differ only on the margins from Mankiw. The entire crew of leading economists for the last three Presidents and Romney has proven catastrophically wrong about financial regulation. The remarkable thing is that they do not drop their dogmas even after they engineer multiple crises over the course of three decades. We will soon experience the 30th anniversary of the Garn-St Germain Act of 1982, which set off a renewed "competition in laxity" among the States (principally California and Texas; whose S&Ls, collectively, caused roughly two-thirds of all S&L losses) and produced the criminogenic environment that led to the second phase of the S&L debacle. There are economists and scholars from other fields that have track records of success as financial regulators. Note to Obama and Romney: there is no rule requiring you to choose as your leading advisors the purveyors of green slime and crisis. A significant number of Mankiw's students walked out of his class to protest his presentation of failed dogma in the guise of economics. It is time for all of us as citizens to walk out on politicians who choose ethical and economics failures like Mankiw and Geithner as their advisors. Bill Black is the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One and an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City. He spent years working on regulatory policy and fraud prevention as Executive Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention, Litigation Director of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Deputy Director of the National Commission on Financial Institution Reform, Recovery and Enforcement, among other positions.
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| Two Scenarios For Next Precious Metals Rally, Part II Posted: 16 Apr 2012 05:21 AM PDT In Part I, I presented readers with the premise that the next rally for the precious metals sector would be triggered by either some significant "event" or (worse) a full-fledged market crash. Indeed, I suggested to readers that with gold and silver seemingly "trapped" (by the banksters) in a trading range that the sector needed a catalyst of this nature to break the metals free from this manipulation inertia. I then went on to outline one of those scenarios: the crash-driven rally. Precious metals prices (and most commodities) would suddenly begin spiraling higher in an exponential manner – a clear signal that the masses would be beginning to shun the worthless paper of the banksters (and an obvious prelude to hyperinflation). To halt that existential threat to the bankers' paper empire they would do precisely what they did in 2008: crash global markets to temporarily put the brakes on commodity prices, and buy them a reprieve from the total collapse of their paper. Those who enjoy semantics will argue that I'm not describing a "crash-driven rally", but rather a rally, a crash, and then another rally. However, with the insane volatility which has been permanently imposed on our markets through the banksters' Pied Piper trading algorithms, an "exponential" move in commodity prices can occur over a period of a few, short weeks. Not being a short-term oriented "trader" (i.e. a gambler), I simply don't acknowledge moves of a couple of weeks (in either direction) as being either a rally or a correction. With the price of gold now capable of rising or falling by 5% in a single day (and the price of silver capable of moving at double that speed), even violent moves of a couple weeks duration no longer qualify as "rallies" or "corrections" in any statistical sense. The 'beta' in this sector has widened to such an extreme that such violent short-term moves now can only be (properly) classified under the broader heading of volatility. Thus we would have extreme volatility to the upside, followed by even more extreme, even more brief volatility on the downside – leading to the sector's next true rally. That is the extreme scenario looking ahead. As I noted in Part I, the only desirable aspect to this scenario is that we would essentially have advance warning of what was to come when (if) we see precious metals and commodity prices begin soaring "for no reason". In contrast, the other trigger for the next precious metals rally could also be a less-extreme, less-harmful event. However the downside to this more benign scenario is that we would (likely) not have the advance warning we would get in the crash scenario. Two recent examples of such "event-driven" rallies come to mind: one of these events was instigated by the bankers, the other forced upon them. In the former category, we have the ridiculously over-hyped scheme by the banksters to crush the market by dumping 400 tons of IMF gold, much as the Bank of England had done a decade earlier – when it flooded the market with half the nation's gold reserves, costing UK citizens billions of pounds. While this event occurred in the middle of 2009, the entire plot (principally a propaganda campaign) stretched out over a year and a half. In labeling this scheme as being ridiculous, we start with the fact that the bankers had their stooges in the mainstream media announce and re-announce this "sale" of IMF gold on at least a half-dozen separate occasions – before the legal authority to sell a single ounce of that gold had ever been granted. The analogy would be to announce (and re-announce) the "sale" of a house again and again the moment that a bid had been accepted, but before the purchaser had even approached a bank to apply for a mortgage. This was the proverbial "Shock and Awe" operation which the banksters love so much. Frighten the market as much as possible in advance, by "warning" people of the pending sale again and again and again – and then splash all of that gold onto the market all at once to (hopefully) induce a stampede of selling. That was the plan. But as with most of what the banksters attempt, it didn't work out quite as they had schemed. Instead of the sound of a "splash" as all that gold hit the market, there was the sound of a "gulp" (and then a burp) as the government of India swallowed-up half of the IMF's gold in a single purchase! This extremely bullish development (a total surprise to people on both sides of the market) caused an immediate bounce higher in gold and silver prices. Horrified, the bankers ordered their stooges at the IMF to immediately pull the rest of the gold off the market. This was despite the fact that the price was rising and the IMF had (apparently) been extremely eager to sell their gold, and despite the fact that large buyers (such as Canada's Eric Sprott) were standing their - cheques in hand – ready to pay those rising prices. In other words, there could be no possible legitimate reason for the IMF to have withheld that gold from those eager buyers. |
| Gartman – ‘Abandon Junior Miners’ – Mugs Game Posted: 16 Apr 2012 05:09 AM PDT HOUSTON – Now that junior miners have already been crushed as much as 45% from their 2011 highs (as measured by the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miner's Index ETF or GDXJ); and the advanced exploration companies have already been cast overboard by the fearful to the tune of -53% for the same period (as measured by the Global X Gold Explorers ETF or GLDX), apparently popular newsletter writer and frequent guest on televised financial media Mr. Dennis Gartman is advising his large and high-paying clientele to "abandon" them because even when gold rallies they don't rally. Gartman caps his comments with a flourish, saying the juniors are "a mugs game if ever there was one," in The Gartman Letter installment for Monday, April 16, 2012.
Continued… ***
Mr. Gartman may be right about gold equities big and small cratering further, of course, he really might – no one can see the future and as we said, Mr. Gartman can see the rearview mirror with the best of them. His call on Monday for people to abandon the 'junior mining mugs game' well after the mining share barn has burned to the ground is not, we reckon, just Mr. Gartman's add-insult-to-injury-in-a-faux-gentleman's-way of sticking a figurative knife in the gut of long suffering mining shares holders. No, sir, that would be untoward and droll. But, if the small and large mining shares are as close to capitulation and reversal as the faithful believe they are, could Gartman's call to summarily dump them after they have already been crushed be any more timely? (In the same contrary sense, of course.) Right or wrong, now that our 'friend' Dennis has finally noticed the bloody carnage that has befallen the junior mining shares – enough so that they have entered his gentlemanly, but nevertheless caustic commentary sights; now that Gartman has chosen to use them as another hole-digging, Gold Bug-hammering punch line, we have to say that, strangely, we have not felt this good about them in a contrary fashion since, oh, early 2009 or so. Indeed, oddly enough, on a relative to gold basis, the juniors are not far from where they were in the depths of the 2008 panic. We can see that in the relationship of the Canadian Venture Exchange Index or CDNX relative to gold. Advising folks to avoid a market that has already been cut in half is indeed something we'd expect from a mercenary short-term trader, gentleman or otherwise. We sure hope Mr. Gartman doesn't wait as long to pull the rip cord when he is skydiving, though. We understand the ground can be pretty unforgiving at times.
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| BIS Trader Removes Gold “interventions” from Bio Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:17 AM PDT
from gata.org: Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: ZeroHedge today catches the Bank for International Settlements admitting and then trying to cover up its services to member central banks in surreptitiously manipulating the gold market, work the BIS was positively advertising a few years ago in a promotional brochure for prospective central bank members that GATA brought to your attention in February: http://www.gata.org/node/11012 ZeroHedge's report notes the lately much-shortened biography offered for BIS foreign exchange and gold trader Mikael Charoze, who until a few days ago boasted of running the BIS' foreign exchange and gold "interventions." Missing from Charoze's biography now is the latter word. Does that mean that the BIS doesn't do gold market interventions anymore? Whatever it means, you can be sure that mainstream financial news organizations and know-it-all market analysts won't be asking even as they ridicule complaints of surreptitious gold market intervention as mere "conspiracy theory" — even when the "conspiracy" is admitted over and over again in official documents: Keep on reading @ gata.org |
| Physical vs. Paper: The Real War Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:13 AM PDT
from financialsense.com: Paper Pricing Fuels Volatility, Physical Buying Takes Advantage After experiencing years of steady price increases in precious metals followed by swift declines, we are not strangers to volatile markets. Many of us have become "seasoned" to exceptional price swings even though their frequency and magnitude can be wearing. The same can be said about any battle. Right now we are in the middle of a monetary war to return to a sound monetary system. The paper gold pricing system vs. the physical holders are on the front lines. Here's another truth: what doesn't kill us makes us stronger. Physical gold is in and going into strong hands. On waterfall price declines in the paper market, physical purchases accelerate. We see virtually no selling of physical during times like this. Further, in our daily conversations we hear absolute resolve of physical gold owners to stay the course until we are once again is a sound monetary system. Collectively our belief in gold as the antidote to a failing fiat monetary system is stronger than ever, even though precious metals prices seem to take the steps up and the elevator down. As Jim Grant has said (paraphrasing) "gold is for the weary, not necessarily the frightened. Keep on reading @ financialsense.com |
| Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:09 AM PDT
from marketoracle.co.uk: I want to spend a lot of time talking about gold and looking at it from a different perspective. For years many analysts and gold bugs have made the claim that gold is cheap relative to just about anything else, but they never tell you why. In today's report I want to deal with the "why" because I think it's important to understand that if you purchase gold at $1,400, $1,500, $1,600 or even $1,700, it is totally irrelevant. As a first step toward understanding why it's undervalued, you need to look at the creation of fiat currency in the United States from 1980 to date:undervalued, you need to look at the creation of fiat currency in the United States from 1980 to date. In 1980 the money supply stood at US $500 billion and today it's at approximately US $8 trillion, a staggering sixteen-fold increase over a thirty-two year period! Keep on reading @ marketoracle.co.uk |
| Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:07 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: Gold and silver got whacked again on Friday, prompted this time by news that economic growth in China came in at a disappointing 8.1%. This was down from 8.9% in the previous quarter, and the slowest rate for three years. Chinese consumer prices were up 3.6% in March – below the government's 4% target and considerably off the 6.5% reached last July. The BBC notes that the People's Bank of China is likely to take further measures to "loosen monetary policy" in response to this disappointing data. At the same time, Spain's debt woes are creating fresh enthusiasm for the dollar as a "safe haven". The Dollar Index is back above 80, with the yield on Spanish 10-year sovereign debt hitting 6.1% this morning. Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| Less “Gold Fever” In China Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:05 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: London Gold Market Report WHOLESALE gold bullion prices traded just below $1650 an ounce for most of Monday morning's London session – well within the past month's range – as European stock markets edged higher while commodities fell. The Euro meantime sank to a two-month low against the Dollar, as investors turned their attention to rising Spanish government borrowing costs. On China's Shanghai Gold Exchange, contracts equivalent to around 7.3 tonnes of gold bullion changed hands in Monday's trading. "Current levels are by no means excessively weak," says a note from investment bank UBS, "but the fact that average daily turnover sits at just about half of the 18 tonne all-time high seen last year is in itself confirmation that there is less gold fever in China this year versus last." Authorities in Beijing meantime have widened the Yuan's trading band against the Dollar from a 0.5% maximum daily move to 1%. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| One Italian Export Is Soaring: Gold Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:04 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: When one thinks PIIGS, one usually imagines countries with collapsing economies, 50%+ youth unemployment, and current account deficits so large they are about to drag down the ECB, Bundesbank and Germany. And while that is absolutely correct for the most part, there is one product which the PIIGS, or in this case Italy, are all too happy to export in size. Gold, and not just to anywhere, but to that ultimate safe haven – Switzerland. From BBC: "Italian exports of gold ingots to Switzerland have soared in recent months, data has shown. Exports to Switzerland were 35.6% higher than in February 2011 "mainly because of sales of non-monetary raw gold", statistics agency Istat said. This followed a 34.6% year-on-year rise in exports to Switzerland in January." And the absolutely funniest attempt at spin ever: "Experts say improvements in the trade deficit could be a sign that Prime Minister Mario Monti's economic reforms are starting to take effect." Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Pollock: Wonderful Life, MF, DOJ, & more Posted: 16 Apr 2012 04:02 AM PDT What if you woke up one day only to find that your pension, brokerage, or bank went bust! Your Savings and Loan (MF Global) did not have enough money to return to its customers because all the assets it managed on your behalf were locked into illiquid speculations. from wepollock: In the depression world of "Its a Wonderful Life" all the collateral was in the form of illiquid real estate. youtu.be In the modern world all the collateral times one thousand has been locked up in the form of fraudulent financial instruments called derivatives. Your bank got its credit from an even larger bank (Potter in its a Wonderful Life, and JP Morgan in regards to MF Global) Potter (JP Morgan) could demand payment at any time in the form of a margin call and it was in his financial interests to do so. Thus George's (Jimmy Stewart's) small "Savings in Loan" in "Its A Wonderful Life" experienced a bank run; where it had to shut its doors. MF Global had to close its door through the bankruptcy process. Potter then offers Savings and Loan Customers fifty cents on the dollar. MF Global customers are at the mercy of a trustee who has so far paid them seventy two cents on the dollar. What is Collateral Where is Your Collateral Why is there a Shortage of Collateral What are Derivatives and other Innovations in Finance What is Utility Banking What About Adam Smith The infected, odiferous, and bad tasting pink slime (aka, the "higher standard") secretly added to … ~TVR |
| Peter Schiff: Bernanke Is Clueless Posted: 16 Apr 2012 03:59 AM PDT Follow Max Keiser on Twitter: twitter.com Watch the full Keiser Report 276 on Tuesday. In this episode, Max Keiser and co-host, Stacy Herbert discuss the Fukushima of Central Bank quantitative easing policies and the blowfish that is more deadly than a Goldman Sachs CDO. In the second half of the show Max talks to investor, author and radio show host, Peter Schiff about gold, the dollar and Japanese monetary policy. KR on FB: www.facebook.com from russiatoday: ~TVR |
| Posted: 16 Apr 2012 03:58 AM PDT
from goldmoney.com: Despite poor economic data out of China and Europe recently, global palladium demand shows no sign of declining. On the contrary, demand from end users in the automobile industry continues at record highs. Russian palladium reserves are nearly exhausted, while South Africa – the world's second largest producer – has been unable to significantly increase production. Thus, the future is bright as far as palladium prices are concerned. Keep on reading @ goldmoney.com |
| BIS trader removes gold interventions from his biography Posted: 16 Apr 2012 03:13 AM PDT |
| 'Gold Wars' by Ferdinand Lips in Spanish Posted: 16 Apr 2012 03:00 AM PDT Spanish speakers rejoice! The late Ferdinand Lips's epic book Gold Wars: The Battle Against Sound Money as Seen From a Swiss Perspective has just been published in Spanish for the first time. ... |
| The War at the End of the US Dollar Posted: 16 Apr 2012 02:49 AM PDT The history of the US dollar is closely linked to US involvement in a series of wars. The loss of value in the dollar caused by excessive expansion of the money supply, together with rising demand for raw materials, has led to permanently higher global commodity prices. |
| Posted: 16 Apr 2012 02:42 AM PDT - Public announcement GEAB N°64 (April 16th, 2012) -  Just as LEAP/E2020 has been anticipating since November 2010 (GEAB N°49), the Socialist candidate (1), in this case François Hollande, will win the 2012 French presidential election (2). There is still the question relating to the first round of this election: will Nicolas Sarkozy, the outgoing president, come out ahead or behind Marine Le Pen (it was also part of our November 2010 anticipation) (3)? Therefore, it's time to anticipate the consequences of this election for France, Euroland and the EU as well as at world level (NATO, G20, Euro-BRICS) because de facto it's much more important for the current world's progress, in full transition because of the world crisis, than the next American election which will see Barack Obama and Mitt Romney clash head-to-head (two candidates financed massively by Wall Street) against a backdrop of the US political system's general paralysis (4).  In this issue, in addition to the important national, European and international consequences this major republican earthquake which will strike France, our team is introducing a detailed anticipation on the upcoming fall of the Canadian residential property market. In addition, we reveal a very useful methodological instrument for political anticipation to decipher the attempts at taking control of the public opinion. And this month our recommendations relate to the progress of the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, the expansion of the major tax attack against financial centres, developments in the world stock markets and the next far-reaching development of Euroland's reactions in the face of speculative attacks. In this communiqué, we have chosen to present an extract dealing with the world geopolitical consequences of the change of power in France. A 2012 French election much more important geopolitically than the 2012 US election Indeed, for our team, François Hollande's victory will start a series of strategic upheavals which will greatly affect Europe and will significantly accelerate the geopolitical changes in progress on a world level since the beginning of the global crisis in 2008. Therein, the results and consequences of the French presidential election (5) have much more importance than those of the next American presidential election in November 2012. In fact, France, although being a much less powerful country than the United States, occupies a strategic position both in Europe and on a world level (in particular via its intra-European role) which will make it a key-player in the emergence of the "world after the crisis" to paraphrase the title of Franck Biancheri's book. And François Hollande's election, who has clear ideas on Europe and France's role in Europe and has clearly stated his intention to actively explore partnership possibilities with the new emerging powers (BRICS), will establish a major break with the absence of vision and European strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy's five years' presidency, mainly marked by an unprecedented allegiance in the country's recent history to the dominant US power (6) and its unconditional integration in a Washington/Tel Aviv axis on the major geopolitical problems' fundamentals (7). France had disappeared in the world these last five years (8); it's on the point of making a sensational return (9), even beyond the future president's personality (10). The impact of François Hollande's election on global geopolitical transition (2012-2015) In global terms, LEAP/E2020 makes a point of underlining two outstanding trends which will characterize the first two years of the new French government: . France's assertion of a European-Gaullist policy (or Mitterand- Gaullist), i.e., making independent European foreign policy a strategic priority. . the exploration of conceivable relationships with the BRICS at top speed, in particular in a context of a future Euro-BRICS partnership. François Hollande has remained very discreet as regards foreign policy because, first, it's not at the centre of French concerns in this election; and because, second, one doesn't announce material changes in this field in advance. There are a plethora of arguments for such changes and their implementation isn't likely to create difficulties in public opinion which, generally, felt betrayed by the Americanist allegiance of the Sarkozy period, in effect there is no reason to hurry. As he announced on the question of France's reintegration in NATO's joint military organization (11), it will be based on an objective evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of this decision. The result is known in advance since the outgoing president didn't negotiate anything (and thus got nothing) in exchange for France's return. There will thus be a two-speed action: a counterparty requirement in terms of key military positions for France within NATO and the installation, by 2015 at the latest, of a pillar of European defence outside, but connected to, NATO. France will be able to count on the support of the majority of the continental European countries, definitively convinced by the Libyan and Afghan adventures of the need for radical changes within the Atlantic Alliance. With the help of an increased budget on the part of Europeans for assuming responsibility for the costs of their own defence; the United States, facing drastic reductions in their military budget, will accept it like it or not. And only the United Kingdom will be opposed to this development before joining in, since it doesn't have the financial, military and diplomatic resources for its policies any more.  In global terms, following Germany which is already well committed to the process of diplomatic co-operation with the BRICS, France will adopt a more strategic approach, with a European (Eurolander) common reasoning, which will aim at drawing up common points for Euro-BRICS action (12) at international organization level (IMF reforms (13), UN Security Council …) and especially a fundamental reform of the international monetary system (the issue of replacing the US Dollar as the system's pillar). The G20 Moscow summit in the first half of 2013 will mark the first achievement of this development. While stimulating only these two changes (and one can suppose that there will be more of them), the new French government, with an exemplary European approach, will have thus decisively contributed to the development of world post-crisis governance. --------- Notes: (1) LEAP/E2020's November 2010 anticipation was generated in the light of the strong trends (massive grassroots rejection of Nicolas Sarkozy personally, the UMP electorate's discouragement and a strong thrust by the National Front), all independent the socialist candidate as an individual, unknown at the time. (2) With second round polls which have never placed Nicolas Sarkozy in front and an established lead month after month (around 8%/10%), even widening (a 13% gap in a recent CSA poll) in favour of François Hollande, only a tragic accident could now prevent the socialist candidate's victory on the evening of the 6th May. (3) We continue to think that the pollsters are strongly underestimating the National Front candidate's share and, on the contrary, are overestimating that of the outgoing president. The feeling, now widespread and reinforced by all the polls without exception, that the UMP candidate cannot win the second round considerably weakens the strategy of the "helpful vote" for Sarkozy from the first round vis-a-vis the "wasted vote" for Le Pen. In fact, we consider that the last days ahead of the first round will even see this strategy overturned to the detriment of the Sarkozy vote which de facto has became a useless vote, in the absence of it being unable to win the second round. (4) See our anticipation on the US future on this subject (GEAB N°60 ) of which four extracts have just made available to the public. (5) And of the legislative election which will follow next June (6) As we have already emphasized in the past, the only period which can match the comparison of the abandonment of sovereignty as regards international politics is that of the Vichy regime and its unconditional allegiance to the Nazi regime. (7) And even on the training of the future French elite on the « World University Inc » model, a model without a future however. Source : NewropMag, 12/04/2012 (8) Even one of the middlemen in the Karachi affair, Zaid Takieddine, asserts the priority given to wheeling and dealing which governed the country's strategic decisions for the last five years. As regards wheeling and dealing, it's an expert speaking. Source : Le Point, 26/03/2012 (9) That said, those who, at the instigation of the City and Wall Street, want "to read" Euroland's future into the Greek crisis, are welcome. LEAP/E2020 estimates that from now on it's rather from the change in French policy that the rest of Euroland's history will be written and beyond the post-crisis geopolitical transition. (10) Because after France's twelve years of quasi-absence on European issues for which Jacques Chirac had no affinity and even less strategic vision, these last five years marked France's de facto disappearance from the international and European scene, except as a minion of the United States and publicity tool for Nicolas Sarkozy's bragging never followed up (suppression of tax havens, taxes on financial transactions, etc…). The country, its players, operators, citizens, found themselves cut off from any capacity to project on a European and international scale. This situation will come to an end in less than a month and generate a strong bubbling up of many initiatives, like a "pressure-cooker" under pressure for years! That also explains why this election doesn't reflect a classic right-left divide but really a republican divide with a strong sense of "res publica". (11) Decided by Nicolas Sarkozy without any declaration prior to his election and without any democratic debate. (12) For example, Russia has just replaced the United States on the spot, which had abandoned the ExoMars project, controlled by Europeans, due to lack of funds. Source : RiaNovosti, 14/04/2012 (13) A burning topic, where the BRICS are waiting for the Europeans. Source : CNBC, 14/04/2012 |
| Silver Miners Building for Breakout: Chris Marchese Posted: 16 Apr 2012 01:58 AM PDT |
| Gold Consolidating Over €1,200/oz As Spanish 10 Year Hits 6.15% Posted: 16 Apr 2012 01:44 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Poll Positions for Falling Bullion Posted: 16 Apr 2012 12:33 AM PDT CFTC reports continue to show that net long positions in gold are being liquidated. Nineteen tonnes were shed in the latest reporting period on Comex. Long-silver specs unloaded 210+ tonnes from their logbooks and added 110+ tonnes to short positions. |
| Gold Consolidates Over €1,200/oz. on Spanish Yields Posted: 15 Apr 2012 11:47 PM PDT The weakness seen on the Friday Comex close continued in Asia when gold fell to as low as $1,640.50/oz. prior to a slight bounce on European trading. While gold fell 1% on Friday, bullion still managed to record a 1.7% weekly rise in dollars and gains in other currencies. |
| ‘Renewed Market Panic’ as Spain Fears Grow Posted: 15 Apr 2012 11:10 PM PDT Gold bullion prices hovered below $1,650 per ounce Monday morning in London – well within their range of the past four weeks – as European stocks edged higher while commodity prices fell. |
| Sell Your Stocks, Gradually Build Up Gold Posted: 15 Apr 2012 10:25 PM PDT
from wealthwire.com: Since gold's peak back in the fall of 2011, investors have been trying to let us know what the yellow metal is going to do next. Keep on reading @ wealthwire.com |
| Posted: 15 Apr 2012 10:23 PM PDT
from wealthwire.com: 1. The word "gold" comes from the Old English word "geolu," meaning yellow. 10. The gold held at Fort Knox is accounted for by the United States as an asset valued at $44.22 per ounce. Keep on reading @ wealthwire.com |
| Posted: 15 Apr 2012 10:02 PM PDT What's the point of investing? Plenty of people below 50 today – and a good many older – might well wonder. Gold investing yields no income. But does it make life cheaper in future? |
| Posted: 15 Apr 2012 09:04 PM PDT Entire Agriculture Sector Gradually Rising. Driven-Up Primarily On Grains. Other Ag Products Are Sporadic With Some Up And Some Down. This chart is bullish with resistance on the 200-day moving average at 11.66. Today's Index price 4-2-12 11.35.
Soybeans Extend Rally to Six-Month High; Corn Rises And Wheat Drops. "Soybeans rose, extending a rally to a six-month high, after the government said U.S. farmers intend to plant less this year. Corn rose on shrinking inventories, and wheat fell on beneficial weather for winter crops." "Farmers will sow 73.902 million acres with soybeans this year, down -1.4% from 2011 and the lowest in five years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on March 30 after surveying farmers. Stockpiles of corn on March 1 fell -7.9% to 6.009 billion bushels, the lowest for the date since 2004, the agency said." "Corn and soybeans continue to rise on tightening supply outlooks," Don Roose, the president of U.S. Commodities Inc. in West Des Moines, Iowa, said in telephone interview. "If the U.S. has a weather problem for a third straight year, then prices will be explosive this summer. Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at $76.5 billion in 2011, followed by soybeans at $35.8 billion, government figures show. Wheat is the fourth-largest at $14.4 billion, behind hay." -Jeff Wilson 4-2-12 Bloomberg.net Corn reserve supplies are the lowest in 35 years. Weather has been down right nasty for growers throughout the world. In South America, we expect soybean trucker strikes delivering to ports. The USDA regularly reports higher reserves and more ambitious plans for planting to keep prices in check. We can see problems on reserves, grower plans, failed crops and bad weather ahead. To cope with the prices, I am expecting we'll have to use not only spreads but futures for earnings. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Gold & Silver Market Morning, April 16 2012 Posted: 15 Apr 2012 09:00 PM PDT |
| Gold, Silver, and Tipping Point Analysis Posted: 15 Apr 2012 08:54 PM PDT VNote: Solid analysis in the editor's opinion. Props to Dave for the heads up. from mrthriveandsurvive: ~TVR |
| Gold & Silver Wait Patiently for More Easing Posted: 15 Apr 2012 07:54 PM PDT After having a strong performance the prior day, the markets experienced a broad pullback Friday as growth data from China disappointed investors. Gold prices fell more than 1.5%, while silver dropped 3.3%. |
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