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- GEAB N°64 est disponible! Crise systémique globale : France 2012-2014 - Le grand séisme républicain et son impact international
- Profit From Groupon While Investors Are Negative
- WATCH: Gold – Return Of The King
- Why The Market Is Slowly Dying
- Strange Dumping of Gold at Comex Close
- Swiss Franc Investors Move To Precious Metals
- Silver Entrenched in Consolidation Pattern
- Algorithms Gone Wild – AGAIN, and AGAIN, and AGAIN
- Opportunity in Veiled Realities
- Weekly Gold Supported
- Bullish and Bearish Developments in Gold
- A White Paper on Oil versus Gold
- The Root Cause of Unemployment : Part I : Destroying the Wage Fund
- Iron Law of the Burden of Debt
- The Rule of Capital
- Gold: Return Of The King
- Max Keiser on Mott Street
- James Turk talks with Brother John
- Trading Comments, 14 April 2012 (posted 22h45 CET):
| Posted: 15 Apr 2012 02:39 AM PDT - Communiqué public GEAB N°64 (15 avril 2012) -  Comme anticipé par LEAP/E2020 depuis Novembre 2010 (GEAB N°49), le candidat socialiste (1), en l'occurrence François Hollande, emportera l'élection présidentielle française de 2012 (2). La question qui se pose encore concerne le premier tour de cette élection : Nicolas Sarkozy, le président sortant sera-t-il devant ou derrière Marine Le Pen (c'était aussi l'une des composantes de notre anticipation de Novembre 2010) (3) ? Il est donc temps d'anticiper les conséquences de cette élection tant pour la France que pour l'Euroland et l'UE ainsi qu'au niveau mondial (OTAN, G20, Euro-BRICS) car de facto elle est beaucoup plus importante pour l'évolution du monde actuel, en pleine transition du fait de la crise mondiale, que la prochaine élection américaine qui verra s'affronter Barack Obama et Mitt Romney (deux candidats financés massivement par Wall Street) sur fond de paralysie générale du système politique US (4).  Dans ce GEAB N°64, outre les conséquences nationales, européennes et internationales importantes de ce grand séisme républicain qui va frapper la France, notre équipe présente une anticipation détaillée sur la prochaine chute du marché immobilier résidentiel canadien. Par ailleurs, nous révélons un instrument méthodologique d'anticipation politique très utile pour décrypter les tentatives de prise de contrôle des opinions publiques. Et nos recommandations concernent ce mois-ci l'évolution des Dollars australien et néo-zélandais, le développement de la grande attaque fiscale contre les placements financiers, l'évolution des marchés boursiers mondiaux et l'évolution radicale prochaine des réactions de l'Euroland face aux attaques spéculatives. Dans ce communiqué public, nous avons choisi de présenter un extrait traitant des conséquences géopolitiques mondiales du changement de pouvoir en France. Une élection française 2012 beaucoup plus importante géopolitiquement que l'élection US 2012 En effet, pour notre équipe, la victoire de François Hollande va déclencher une série de bouleversements stratégiques qui vont affecter fortement l'Europe et accélérer considérablement les transitions géopolitiques en cours au niveau mondial depuis le début de la crise globale en 2008. En cela, les résultats et les conséquences de l'élection présidentielle française (5) ont beaucoup plus d'importance que ceux de la prochaine élection présidentielle américaine en Novembre 2012. En effet, la France, bien qu'étant un pays beaucoup moins puissant que les Etats-Unis, occupe une position stratégique tant en Europe qu'au niveau mondial (notamment via son rôle intra-européen) qui va en faire un acteur-clé de l'émergence du « monde d'après la crise » pour reprendre le titre du livre de Franck Biancheri. Et l'élection de François Hollande, qui possède une vraie réflexion sur l'Europe et le rôle de la France en Europe et a clairement affirmé son intention d'explorer activement les possibilités de partenariat avec les nouvelles puissances émergentes (BRICS), va consacrer une rupture majeure avec l'absence de vision et de stratégie européenne des cinq ans de présidence de Nicolas Sarkozy marqués essentiellement par une inféodation sans précédent dans l'Histoire récente du pays à la puissance dominante américaine (6) et son intégration sans conditions à un axe Washington/TelAviv sur l'essentiel des grands problèmes géopolitiques (7). La France avait disparu dans le monde depuis cinq ans (8), elle s'apprête à faire un retour fracassant (9) au-delà même de la personnalité du futur président (10). L'impact de l'élection de François Hollande sur la transition géopolitique globale (2012-2015) En matière globale, LEAP/E2020 tient à souligner deux tendances marquantes qui vont caractériser les deux premières années du nouveau pouvoir français : . l'affirmation par la France d'une politique européo-gaullienne (ou mitterando-gaullienne), c'est-à-dire faisant de l'indépendance de la politique extérieure européenne une priorité stratégique . l'exploration à vitesse accélérée des relations possibles avec les BRICS, notamment dans un contexte de futur partenariat Euro-BRICS. François Hollande est resté très discret en matière de politique étrangère car, d'une part, elle n'est pas au cœur des préoccupations des Français pour cette élection 2012 et car, d'autre part, on n'annonce pas à l'avance des changements importants dans ce domaine. Les arguments pour de tels changements étant pléthore et leur mise en œuvre ne risquant pas de générer de difficultés dans l'opinion publique qui, d'une manière générale, s'est sentie trahie par l'inféodation américaniste de la période sarkozienne, il n'y a en effet aucune raison de se précipiter. Comme il l'a annoncé pour la question de la réintégration de la France dans l'organisation militaire intégrée de l'OTAN (11), il s'appuiera sur une évaluation objective des avantages et inconvénients de cette décision. Le résultat est connu d'avance puisque le président sortant n'a rien négocié (et donc rien obtenu) en échange du retour de la France dans cette organisation militaire. Il y aura donc une action en deux temps : l'exigence d'un certain nombre de contreparties en terme de positions militaires clés pour la France au sein de l'OTAN et de la mise en place d'ici 2015 au plus tard d'un pilier européen de défense hors OTAN mais relié à l'OTAN. La France pourra compter sur le soutien de la plupart des pays européens continentaux que les aventures libyenne et afghane ont définitivement convaincus de la nécessité de changements radicaux au sein de l'Alliance atlantique. Moyennant une prise en charge budgétaire accrue de la part des Européens des coûts de leur propre défense, les Etats-Unis, faisant face à des réductions drastiques de leur budget militaire, accepteront bon gré-mal gré. Et seul le Royaume-Uni s'opposera à cette évolution avant de s'y rallier puisqu'il n'a plus les moyens financiers, militaires et diplomatiques de sa politique.  En matière globale, à la suite de l'Allemagne déjà bien engagée dans le processus de coopération diplomatique avec les BRICS, la France engagera une approche plus stratégique, avec une logique européenne (eurolandaise) commune, qui visera à formuler des axes communs d'action Euro-BRICS (12) au niveau des organisations internationales (réformes du FMI (13), du Conseil de Sécurité de l'ONU, …) et surtout de réforme fondamentale du système monétaire international (question du remplacement du Dollar US comme pilier du système). Le sommet du G20 à Moscou au premier semestre 2013 marquera la première concrétisation de cette évolution. En stimulant ces deux seuls changements (et on peut supposer qu'il y en aura d'autres), le nouveau pouvoir français, avec une approche européenne exemplaire, aura ainsi contribué de manière décisive à l'évolution de la gouvernance mondiale post-crise. -------- Notes: (1) L'anticipation de LEAP/E2020 de Novembre 2010 avait été effectuée en fonction de tendances lourdes (rejet populaire massif de la personne de Nicolas Sarkozy, démotivation de l'électorat UMP et forte poussée du Front National), toutes indépendantes de la personne du candidat socialiste, inconnu à l'époque. (2) Avec des sondages de second tour qui n'ont jamais placé Nicolas Sarkozy en tête et un écart qui se confirme mois après mois (autour de 8%/10%), voire se creuse (13% d'écart dans un récent sondage CSA) au profit de François Hollande, seul un accident tragique pourrait désormais empêcher la victoire du candidat socialiste au soir du 6 Mai. (3) Nous continuons à estimer que les sondeurs sous-évaluent fortement le score de la candidate du Front National et surévaluent au contraire celui du président sortant. Le sentiment désormais général, et conforté par tous les sondages sans exception, que le candidat de l'UMP ne peut pas sortir vainqueur du second tour affaiblit considérablement la stratégie du « vote utile » Sarkozy dès le premier tour face au « vote inutile » Le Pen. En fait, nous considérons que les derniers jours avant le premier tour vont même voir cette stratégie se retourner au détriment du vote Sarkozy qui de facto est devenu un vote inutile, faute de pouvoir l'emporter au second tour. (4) Voir à ce propos notre anticipation sur l'évolution des Etats-Unis 2012-2016 (GEAB N°60 que nous venons de mettre en accès public en 4 extraits. (5) Et de l'élection législative qui suivra en Juin prochain. (6) Comme nous l'avons déjà souligné par le passé, la seule époque qui peut soutenir la comparaison en matière d'abandon de souveraineté en matière de politique internationale est celle du régime de Vichy et son inféodation sans conditions au régime nazi. (7) Et même sur la formation des futures élites françaises sur le modèle pourtant sans avenir de la « World University Inc ». Source : NewropMag, 12/04/2012 (8) C'est même l'un des intermédiaires dans l'affaire Karachi, Zak Takieddine, qui l'affirme en mettant en avant l'affairisme qui a présidé depuis cinq ans aux décisions stratégiques du pays. En matière d'affairisme, c'est un connaisseur qui parle. Source : Le Point, 26/03/2012 (9) Cela dit, libre à ceux qui, à l'instigation de la City et Wall Street, veulent « lire » dans la crise grecque l'avenir de l'Euroland. LEAP/E2020 estime que désormais c'est plutôt du côté du changement politique français que va s'écrire la suite de l'histoire de l'Euroland et au-delà de la transition géopolitique post-crise. (10) Car après douze ans de quasi-absence de la France sur les questions européennes pour lesquelles Jacques Chirac n'avait aucune affinité et encore moins de vision stratégique, ces cinq dernières années ont marqué une disparition de facto de la France de la scène internationale et européenne, sauf comme second couteau des Etats-Unis et comme instrument de médiatisation des fanfaronnades de Nicolas Sarkozy jamais suivies d'effets (suppression des paradis fiscaux, taxes sur les transactions financières, etc …). Le pays, ses acteurs, opérateurs, citoyens, s'est donc trouvé coupé de toute capacité de projection à l'échelle européenne et internationale. C'est cette situation qui prendra fin dans moins d'un mois et qui va de ce fait générer une forte ébullition et de nombreuses initiatives, comme une « cocotte-minute » sous pression depuis des années ! Cela explique aussi pourquoi cette élection ne reflète pas un clivage droite-gauche classique mais bien un clivage républicain au sens fort de la « chose publique ». (11) Décidée par Nicolas Sarkozy sans annonce préalable à son élection et sans aucun débat démocratique. (12) Par exemple, la Russie vient de remplacer au pied levé les Etats-Unis qui ont déclaré forfait, faute d'argent, pour le projet ExoMars piloté par les Européens. Source : RiaNovosti, 14/04/2012 (13) Un sujet brûlant où les BRICS attendent les Européens. Source : CNBC, 14/04/2012 |
| Profit From Groupon While Investors Are Negative Posted: 14 Apr 2012 11:18 PM PDT By Sankrant Sanu: If you go by recent articles by Seeking Alpha contributors, the prognosis on Groupon (GRPN) is overwhelmingly negative. Groupon is "On the Road to Bankruptcy", "Poised for Collapse" and at "The Beginning of the End". The stock has gone from an intraday high of 18.98 on March 30, 2012, when the revised 10-K was filed, to a low of $12.95 on April 11, 2012, a drop of over 30% in less than two weeks. The share price has since then recovered slightly to close at $13.12 on April 13, 2012, sporting a market cap of $8.5 billion. With so much contrary sentiment, a positive earnings report (due May 14, 2012) could spike up the stock. We believe this provides an excellent play based on both fundamentals and the near-term psychology of the market. Groupon's Amazing Cash Conversion Cycle [CCC] The Cash Conversion Cycle is the length of time it takes, Complete Story » |
| WATCH: Gold – Return Of The King Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:50 PM PDT The world has never been better positioned to use gold as a medium of exchange than it is right now. from thevictoryreport1: ~TVR |
| Why The Market Is Slowly Dying Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:44 PM PDT
from zerohedge.com: Three years ago, when virtually nobody had yet heard of High Frequency Trading, Zero Hedge wrote "The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Upcoming Black Swan Of Black Swans" in which we asked "what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume, massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and numerous failed trades?" Subsequent to this, our observation was proved right on both an acute (the May 6, 2010 Flash Crash), and chronic (the nearly 50% collapse in average daily volumes since the 2008 top) secular basis. And while we are not happy to have been proven correct in this particular forecast, as it ultimately means the days of equity capital markets in their current configuration are numbered, we now note that none other than Morgan Stanley's Quantitative and Derivative Strategies released a note which, with a three year delay, effectively predicts the end of capital markets in a world where every declining retail participation (another topic we have been hammering for the past 3 years as it is only the most natural response to a world in which not only equities are openly manipulated by central banks, but in which perpetrators for massive market disturabances are neither identified nor prosecuted) is replaced by artificial high frequency trading churn, which never was and never will be a true liquidity provider on a long-term basis. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Strange Dumping of Gold at Comex Close Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:32 PM PDT
from caseyresearch.com: The gold price spent all of Far East trading and most of the London morning, floating around between unchanged and down five bucks. But at 12:35 p.m. in London, a somewhat more substantial selling pattern appeared…and by about 1:15 a.m. in New York, gold was down about ten bucks from Thursday's closing price. Then, out of nowhere, the bid disappeared…and within forty-five minutes, gold was down another fifteen plus dollars. The low price tick of the day [$1,647.90 spot] came just minutes after 2:00 p.m. in electronic trading…and from there recovered about ten bucks going into the 5:15 p.m. Eastern time close. The gold price finished the day at $1,658.50 spot…down $16.80…precisely one percent from Thursday. Net volume was exactly the same as Thursday…around 121,000 contracts. Keep on reading @ caseyresearch.com |
| Swiss Franc Investors Move To Precious Metals Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:17 PM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: The resurgence of concerns over the long term solvency of debt laden Eurozone countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland has led to refreshed selling of the Euro against the other major currencies since early April. Although the market in EUR/USD now seems to have stabilized just over the psychological 1.3000 level, deep questions remain among international investors as to whether the European Central Bank or ECB will be able to manage the ongoing European debt crisis over the coming few years without the trade bloc disintegrating or the common currency being further devalued by the forex market. Furthermore, investors worried over the ECB's recent notable balance sheet expansion, which has reportedly grown by roughly 30 percent since current ECB President Mario Draghi took over last November, have returned to buying the Swiss Franc as a relative safe haven for their investment funds. Swiss Franc No Longer Convertible Into Gold Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Silver Entrenched in Consolidation Pattern Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:15 PM PDT
from silverseek.com: After late February's dramatic false upside breakout in silver that peaked at the $37.48 level on February 29th stunned many technical traders who were expecting a follow-on rally, its subsequent price action fell into what many analysts considered could be a potentially toppish head and shoulders pattern, which had been forming since the early part of this year. Nevertheless, the failure of silver's trading volume to confirm a tentative downside neckline break, combined with the market's subsequent lack of follow through on it, seems to have invalidated this chart pattern. Silver Trapped in Range as Downside Momentum Wanes Keep on reading @ silverseek.com |
| Algorithms Gone Wild – AGAIN, and AGAIN, and AGAIN Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:11 PM PDT
from traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca: What more is left to say at this point other than the fact that the hedge fund computers and their damnable algorithms have destroyed the integrity of the US futures markets. The sheer size, extent, ferocity and volatility of the moves that these pestilential computers are creating have rendered these markets basically useless for what they originally came into being for, namely, risk management for commercial entities. Price swings of this magnitude are blowing up hedged positions put on by commercials and other end users/merchants/processors, etc. While margins are reduced for legitimate hedgers, they still must meet any and all margin calls on any hedged position, whether that is a long position or a short position. Some will say that all they need to do is to buy or sell the corresponding physical commodity and while simultaneously lifting the hedge. That might work fine on paper but in the real world it is a fabrication. Keep on reading @ traderdannorcini.blogspot.ca |
| Opportunity in Veiled Realities Posted: 14 Apr 2012 10:08 PM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: his decade increasingly offers the opportunity to Profit and Protect Wealth provided one is aware of Key Realities that are Veiled from common view. One such Veiled (except to a few, including most readers here) Reality is that the Price of Silver (and Gold) is subject to ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression operations. Given that the demand for Physical Silver exceeds Mine Production, these Price Suppression actions create bargain Silver prices for those willing to buy Physical and Hold through volatility. "The manipulation is giving silver investors a double-barrelled bonanza. One, a cheap price to buy at than would otherwise be the case and, two, a much higher price to sell at once the manipulation is ended." Ted Butler, Silver Analyst Thus, knowledge of The Veiled Reality – Silver Price Manipulation causing unnaturally low Silver prices temporarily – provides considerable Profit and Wealth Protection potential. Another way of regarding the Veiled Reality Approach is through the Prism of the George Soros' comment. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Posted: 14 Apr 2012 09:01 PM PDT April 3, 2012, Continuous Weekly Gold Supported At $1,648.50. On April 4, the price sold down to a low of $1,613.00 sticking near $1607-$1,615 support and resistance.
"PRECIOUS METALS: Gold fell for a second day in London, extending the biggest drop in four weeks, as the dollar strengthened on signs the Federal Reserve may refrain from providing more stimulus for the U.S. economy. The Fed plans to hold-off from more monetary accommodation unless the economic expansion falters or, price growth is below its target, minutes of March 13 policy meeting showed yesterday. The dollar advanced against the Euro for a third day today. Bullion and the greenback tend to move inversely. Bullion for immediate delivery dropped -0.6%, to $1,635.47 an ounce by 9:14 a.m. in London. Prices slid -1.9% yesterday, the most since March 6, and today reached the lowest level in almost two weeks. Futures for June delivery fell -2.1% to $1,636.50 on the Comex in New York. Platinum for immediate delivery dropped -0.6% to $1,632.50 an ounce. Prices touched the highest level since March 20 yesterday, when Autodata Corp. figures showed U.S. sales of cars and light trucks rose 13 percent in March." Gold closed at $1630.10 Thursday, 4-5-12. "Copper declined as policy-meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve damped expectations for further monetary stimulus and increasing stockpiles signaled weaker demand. Nickel, zinc and lead fell." Base metals are slipping as commercial demand wanes world-wide. China has been a major base metals buyer and they have receded four months in a row. Copper has been trading around $3.85 plus or, minus or near $8,500 per ton on London Metal Exchange. Copper, at its multi-month recent peak was over $4.40 a pound. We see a diversion between precious and base metals as commerce skids lower and precious metals rise on fear, security and escape from fiat paper of all kinds. This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Bullish and Bearish Developments in Gold Posted: 14 Apr 2012 05:12 PM PDT
Highlights from this week's GFMS Gold Survey 2012 launch… EARLIER Thomson Reuters GFMS, the world's foremost research firm focusing on precious metals, launched its Gold Survey 2012. For those weighing up the pros and cons of making a gold investment this year there were both bullish and bearish signals. Here are some highlights that caught BullionVault's eyes (and ears) at this week's launch presentation: Bullish Signals
A key driver of gold investment, says GFMS, is likely to be ongoing loose monetary policies adopted by the world's central banks. "A corollary of all this monetary largesse," says GFMS's global head of metals analytics Philip Klapwijk, "is fears about resurgent inflation, and that becomes all the more likely if oil prices motor higher should tensions get any worse between Iran and the US."
Europe, China, Thailand and the Indian subcontinent all saw growth in physical gold bar investment (investors in North America, as Klapwijk pointed out, tend to prefer gold coins to gold bars). On a global level, combined demand for coins and bars was 1543 tonnes – a 30% gain on 2010, and a new all-time record. Indeed, the majority of gold investment in 2011 took the form of physical investment, GFMS says. The significance of this is that investments in physical gold tend to represents "stickier" investments than other forms of getting exposure to the metal (for example buying gold futures) – meaning it would probably take more for such investors to exit the positions they've built. That said, there is obviously a limit to most investors' stickiness. A lot will depend on whether, as GFMS expects, the economic environment will continue to be supportive of gold investment, with negative real interest rates and fears of inflation prevailing in most parts of the world.
Only Europe saw significant growth in scrap gold bullion supply last year (old jewelry, gold watches etc.), most likely the result of distressed selling prompted by the Eurozone crisis. North America and Latin America meantime posted modest scrap supply growth. East Asia and the Indian subcontinent meantime saw scrap supply fall, as did the Middle East, where it dropped by over 100 tonnes. Although GFMS says it expects scrap supply to rise this year, another traditional source of supply – central banks – is expected to be absent (see below). GFMS points out there was a "secular increase" in supply from scrap, producer hedging and official central bank sales between 1987 and 1999 – a factor which it reckons contributed to the lackluster gold price during that period. By contrast, supply from these sources has been flat since 2000, despite a sharp jump in scrap supplies at the onset of the financial crisis. This period in flat supply has broadly coincided with gold's bull market.
The swing to net buying by central banks is a key factor behind the flat supply picture of recent years that was noted above. Signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement have made what GFMS calls "trivial sales" in recent years, while emerging market central banks have been buying gold in significant quantities. Bearish Signals
New gold mining operations contributed 47 tonnes of supply, while Africa was the region that saw the strongest growth, increasing production by 51 tonnes (despite its largest player, South Africa, seeing a five tonne drop). Gold mine production has entered a "new era", Klapwijk told the London launch, with GFMS expecting a further 3% growth this year.
GFMS estimates that this leaves a "surplus" of gold supply equivalent to around 110 tonnes. Gold investment therefore needs to take up that slack. At current prices "purchasers of bullion need to take gold to the tune of $130 billion out of the market for it to clear," said Klapwijk this week. One attendee at the launch asked whether there might be a case for saying many western investors are now overinvested in gold. Klapwijk agreed such a case could be argued, and that many wealth investors interested in gold have probably already built their positions. He also pointed out that institutions such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds – where gold investment remains relatively rare – could still offer some scope for growth.
This process went into reverse as the bull market got underway. With gold prices rising, producers began to de-hedge, buying back positions and thus contributing to gold demand. Measured as the total outstanding forwards and loans, plus gold options positions weighted according to their sensitivity to movements in gold futures (i.e. an option's delta), producers' overall hedging position last year was equivalent to 157 tonnes of gold bullion. Last year was the first year in over a decade that net hedging was positive, the producers in aggregate adding six tonnes to their combined position. By contrast, hedging positions were equivalent to around 3000 tonnes in 1999 and 2000. Most of the de-hedging – which contributed to the demand side – appears to have been done. "It can only be a source of supply. The question is: how much supply?" Klapwijk noted, however, the most of the hedging seen last year appeared to be related to specific mining projects, adding that there seemed little appetite for strategic hedging against a fall in gold prices.
The bulk of fabrication demand was again accounted for by developing countries, where gold jewelry is often bought for investment as much as adornment purposes. Although most of the world's regions saw a fall in gold jewelry fabrication in tonnage terms, there was a slight gain in Russia and more significant growth of around 40 tonnes in East Asia, which "boils down to China" said Klapwijk. Despite this eastwards demand pull, though, GFMS expects gold jewelry consumption to fall again this year, citing high gold prices and a slowdown in global growth. Jewelry consumption however "is still expected to remain above 2009′s historically depressed level" says GFMS. The Outlook for Gold Prices Weighing up the above factors, and many more besides, GFMS forecasts an average gold price in 2012 of $1731 per ounce, with a range of $1530 to $1920. Klapwijk adds that "a push towards $2000 is definitely on the cards before the year is out, although a clear breach of that mark is arguably a more likely event for the first half of the year". Of course, short-term gains are not the primary reason most people make a gold investment, especially not those buying gold in physical bullion form. From developing nations in the East to the quantitatively eased economies of the West, people are turning to gold as a vehicle for defending the value of their wealth and an insurance hedge against tail risks. The dynamics behind most gold investment will continue to play out well beyond the end of this year. Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| A White Paper on Oil versus Gold Posted: 14 Apr 2012 05:00 PM PDT The Daily Bell |
| The Root Cause of Unemployment : Part I : Destroying the Wage Fund Posted: 14 Apr 2012 04:00 PM PDT Gold University |
| Iron Law of the Burden of Debt Posted: 14 Apr 2012 04:00 PM PDT Gold University |
| Posted: 14 Apr 2012 01:31 PM PDT By Sell on News, a global macro equities analyst. Cross-posted from Macrobusiness.
In the movie Margin Call, which is broadly about the financial crisis and the insidiousness of the financial sector, one of the characters laments about how he used to be an engineer who did useful things like build bridges (he calculates that one he built saved people thousands of years of travel time). But of course the money was better in finance. An angst about people who do useful things and financial people who just feed off everyone else, runs through the whole film. It is a neat reflection of a serious problem at the heart of the post-industrial, globalised system we are creating, which is causing serious imbalances between capital and labour and weakening middle classes in the developed world. A recent article in The Economist noted that past four years have been bad for workers and savers but good for the corporate sector. Profit margins in America are higher than at any time in the past 65 years, which it said partly explains why the equity market has rebounded so strongly despite a lacklustre economy. The question is why aren't cashed up corporations investing, especially in putting on workers? The answer, or at least one answer, is that an implicit compact between capital and labour has been broken in developed economies; a compact that said we have to pay our workers a decent wage so that they buy our stuff. The globalisation of labour means that firms can choose not to pay middle class wages at least for some parts of their operations — so of course that is what they choose to do. But the systemic cost is that demand in developed economies weakens and the incomes of those in developing economies are not high enough to take up the slack. Witness the attempts to make Chinese consumers consume more. It hasn't worked, partly because they need to save for health and education, but also because they simply do not have the discretionary income to afford it. This is the hidden cost of the race to the bottom on wages. The Economist article describes a somewhat dangerous balance of capital and labour (cheap wages are the reason margins have risen):
The balance between capital and labour is typically seen as a contest between a thing (capital) and an act (labour). If one follows the metaphors, the thing (capital) is seen as more substantial and invariant. The act (labour) is seen as negotiable, movable — and dispensable. The impression created by this language is false. Money is a social artifice, the outcome of what people (bankers, financiers) do. What is important about labour is what it leads to. What people (managers, workers) do. Their industrial output. Thus both capital and labour are, in the end, acts. What has happened with the financialisation of developed economies is to say that one type of act: the creation of financial transactions, is intrinsically superior and worth more than other types of acts, the various forms of industrial output. Such as building bridges, for instance. Now why is one type of act seen as so much more worthwhile and valuable? As the billionaire in Margin Call, played by a rather sinister Jeremy Irons, says: "We are just salesmen." It is true, that is what most financial players are. Usually they are selling the notion that they have some sort of superior insight when of course they cannot. They just are selling the appearance that they understand a system that in truth no-one understands, not least because the system is itself made up of the various opinions people have about it. It is a disappearing point. Financial gurus tend to be charlatans when they claim to have anything more than common sense. So what does this imbalance between capital and labour say about us? One conclusion is that we have let the rules we have created rule us. The machinery we have created now runs us. Finance is just rules. We have let those who exploit those rules become the rulers, partly because governments have decided to stop governing in the financial arena. It leaves us with this question. Why do people who play with numbers on a screen in an endless game of manipulation get so much greater rewards than people who do useful things like build bridges, or teach or care for the sick? It is a value system that reveals a dispiriting passivity, especially when it is obvious that if you give up your destiny to the logic of a system that you have created, you risk something worse than what happened in the GFC. NOTE Lambert here. Sell on New's "finance is just rules," reminds me of David Graeber's "debt is just a promise."
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| Posted: 14 Apr 2012 12:47 PM PDT The world has never been better positioned to use gold as a medium of exchange than it is right now. from thevictoryreport1: ~TVR |
| Posted: 14 Apr 2012 09:51 AM PDT Greg over at Backburner news was kind enough to share his video footage of Max Keiser and Reverend Bill Masters on Mott Street 4/12/2012. Max covers some important issues including fraud in the markets, Wall Street, the role of collateral, Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan, crap deals of JPM, congress, Goldman Sachs, fraud, ECB, IMF, Greece, Spain, Ireland, Germany, derivatives, financial terrorism, global raping-destruction of nation states, toxic securities, credit default swaps, and silver. This video is both entertaining and important. from wepollock: ~TVR |
| James Turk talks with Brother John Posted: 14 Apr 2012 09:28 AM PDT James Turk has specialised in international banking, finance and investments since graduating in 1969 from George Washington University with a B.A. degree in International Economics. from BrotherJohnF: James Turk has written several essays and numerous articles on money and banking, much of which can be found on his Free Gold Money Report website. He is the co-author of The Coming Collapse of the Dollar (Doubleday 2004), which has been updated for a paperback version entitled The Collapse of the Dollar. James founded GoldMoney together with his son Geoff Turk in 2001. ~TVR |
| Trading Comments, 14 April 2012 (posted 22h45 CET): Posted: 14 Apr 2012 08:00 AM PDT Gold and silver have done little over the past two weeks. The short-term volatility is noise that can be ignored. The positive news is that both precious metals have completed two more weeks of base |
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