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- 2012-04-13 Jim Rogers' Gold Price Forecast: Not So Optimistic or Buy at $1,600?
- The Inter-market Correlations May Prove Insightful for Silver and Gold Investors
- Marc Faber: Go East
- “Bearish Channel” Escaped as Gold Heads for Weekly Gain Despite China Data, But “More Safe Haven Performances Needed” as Euro Concerns Mount
- Spain In The Crosshairs
- On Gold As An Inflation Hedge
- What Drives Stock Market Performance?
- Does Gold Investing Pay?
- CME To Cut Silver, Copper, Palladium Margins
- Fractal Analysis: 2012 Silver to $70++
- Bullish Gold Technicals
- Is Gold’s Run Over?
- Gold To Repeat Q2 / Q3 2011 Gains In 2012?
- Opportunity in Veiled Realities
- Molyneux talks with Martenson
- Gold To Repeat April, May and Q2 / Q3 2011 Gains in 2012?
- Pollock: Silver
- Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/13/12
- Jaun Carlos Atrigas: Edible Gold
- PM Prices Head for Week’s Gain despite China Slowing
- Does the 2012 Presidential Election Matter?
- South Africa's mine production numbers lowest in 50 years
- CME Group to cut silver margins for 2nd time since Feb
- Will Bullion Repeat April, May & Q2/Q3 Gains in 2012?
- Who says ya can't eat gold.
- Gold on Track to Fulfill Multiple Roles
- Gold jumps on bearish talk from Fed
- Buying The Dips In Gold Has Been The Right Move For A Decade: Frank Holmes
- CME Group Cuts Silver, Copper, Palladium Futures Margins
- IMF: Gold Is A Safe Asset As The Crisis Looms
| 2012-04-13 Jim Rogers' Gold Price Forecast: Not So Optimistic or Buy at $1,600? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 01:49 PM PDT In recent weeks there have been some seemingly contradictory news regarding Jim Rogers' positions on gold. In reality, Jim Rogers just re-confirmed that he has been invested in gold and that he will use potential price drops as an opportunity to buy more. |
| The Inter-market Correlations May Prove Insightful for Silver and Gold Investors Posted: 13 Apr 2012 06:22 AM PDT
Tuesday marked the worst day of the year for U.S. markets. Stocks fell amid anxiety ahead of earnings season and rising bond yields for Spain and Italy, along with sharp losses for those markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 213.66 points, or 1.7%, resulting in a five-session losing streak. That's the longest such run of losses since August. It was also the biggest one-day point and percentage drop for the index since Nov. 23. But Wednesday, U.S. stocks rose sharply after an extended losing run as Spanish and Italian bond yields fell. How do these sometime seismic movements in the stock markets affect the precious metals markets? You might be familiar with our correlation analysis as this topic is discussed in our commentaries every once in a while, yet we decided to delve a bit more into that matter. The relationship between gold and stocks is quite complex. It's positive, negative, and even neutral – all at the same time – depending on the perspective one takes. If you look at yearly gold and Dow charts separately it seems at first glance that they are aligned. Both moved up since April 2011 and both markets experienced painful corrections. However, taking a closer look (by plotting their prices on the same chart, for example) shows that there were times when gold and Dow moved in opposite directions. For instance, gold rallied strongly from July 2011 to late August 2011 while at the same time stocks declined significantly. A few months later – during the first 3 weeks of October – the Dow soared without analogous action in gold. We've also seen a decline in gold in December 2011 and stocks actually were higher at the end of December 2011 than they were at month's beginning. Also, in the past few days (second week of April) we saw gold moving higher along with lower stock prices. If we take the entire previous year into account (the past 250 trading days), we see a moderately negative correlation between gold and S&P 500 (below -0.3), which means that these two asset classes moved on average in the opposite direction during this time frame. In short, there are periods when gold moves along with stocks and there are periods when gold and stocks move in the opposite directions. It seems that the period in which gold moves along with stocks has ended. Gold declined along with stocks during the first week of April, however taking the previous 30 trading days into account, these two still moved, on average, in opposite directions. That's why on April 6th, 2012 we wrote that with negative coefficients (…) the suggestion is that declines in the general stock market will not necessarily be bearish for the precious metals sector. Markets are not logical in the short term, but emotional. Fear and greed are the main drivers behind prices of virtually any liquid asset in the short term, including gold and stocks. In the long run, however, gold moves independently from the stock market, driven by its supply and demand characteristics. Having said so much about correlations between precious metals and the general stock market, let us begin today's essay with a quick look at our own tool, useful in spotting the interdependencies between the markets, named Correlation Matrix: The Correlation Matrix is a tool, which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector. We have described the link between gold and stocks earlier in today's essay, so here we will focus on the other important factor when it comes to correlations, namely the correlation between the precious metals and the USD Index. We see moderately significant and negative coefficients for gold and somewhat weaker ones with silver and the mining stocks. The bearish outlook for the USD Index has bullish implications, as usual, for the precious metals. Please note that the link between silver and the general stock market is moderately negative – similarly to the situation with the link between stocks and gold. Consequently, comments that we made about gold earlier today apply to silver as well We have already discussed the quite complex correlation structure of gold and the general stock market. Let us now have a look at the S&P charts themselves, to see how the situation looks like on the market (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) In the long-term S&P 500 Index chart, we have seen the expected pause following the index reaching the level of its 2008 high on April 2. The S&P has corrected but did not go all the way to the $1,320 level (red line seen on the chart below), more or less reaching the 2011 highs slightly below $1,360 and then bouncing. The breakout above these previous highs has been verified. Based on this chart alone, prices appear ready to move higher – the rally does no longer "demand" a correction as it has already happened. In this slightly different view of the long-term S&P 500 Index chart, we can see a similarity between the trading patterns of mid-2010 and now. Back then, stocks reached a bottom in a similar way and then showed a sustained rally, had a small consolidation around the level of previous highs, and then continued their rally. To finish off, let's move on to the silver market itself. Looking at this long-term chart (you can click the chart to enlarge it if you're reading this essay at sunshineprofits.com)) we can see that silver is still moving between its important technical support and resistance lines. We continue to view the situation as bullish since the recent breakdown has not yet been truly confirmed. Silver continues to try to move above the resistance line. It stayed below this line for four weeks last December-January before the move back above it. This time it has been three weeks since it crossed to the downside and an attempt to move back above it fairly soon seems to be a good bet right now. Silver is now in a post-correction period, so it has the strength to move above the previously impenetrable 50-week moving average (blue line on the above chart). The RSI is finally rising and this is a bullish indication. The most similar trading pattern in the recent past was seen in the 2008 bottom and subsequent rally. Back then a major bottom at was followed by a rally to the 50-week moving average price level, after which prices corrected and then the rally continued. Summing up, the general stock market picture is mixed for the short term and bullish for the medium term. The implications are rather bullish overall for silver but should not be our primary focus at this time. The charts of the white metal itself seem to be better resources today. The situation in silver remains bullish. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free e-mail list. Gold & Silver Investors should definitely join us today and additionally get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and unique charts. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * *
Sunshine Profits provides professional support for Gold & Silver Investors and Traders.
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 06:06 AM PDT
From KerryLutz.com: The renowned Dr. Doom also known as Dr. Marc Faber joined FSN today to discuss his latest commentary that it might just be time to start looking at real estate investments in severely distressed markets such as Florida and Arizona. Dr. Faber explained his outlook for the Western Economies, his forecasts for Gold and Silver, and his take on "printing press" economics. Ever voluble, while at the same time sounding the clarion call for the collapse of civilization, Dr. Faber talks about what things make for a happy, satisfying, and content life. Never dull, Dr. Faber has always got a unique perspective on things, which is why his Gloom Boom and Doom Report is must reading. Much more @ KerryLutz.com or @ 347.460.LUTZ |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 06:02 AM PDT
U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold traded sideways just below $1680 an ounce during Friday morning's London session – back up at levels last seen ten days ago – while stock markets and industrial commodity prices edged lower and government bonds gained. A day earlier, gold prices jumped 1.6% during US trading – holding onto most of those gains during Friday's Asian session despite the release of lower-than-expected Chinese growth figures. "We have now closed well above the short-term bear channel," reckon technical analysts at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. "The previous resistance level at $1656 should provide some support," they add, citing current resistance at $1680. "[Gold] options activity this week suggests something is brewing," adds a note from investment bank UBS. "There has been a good deal of interest in upside options, particularly for $1800 June calls, with gold's safe haven performance on Tuesday the likely catalyst." Tuesday saw gold prices gain while stock markets fell. Heading into the weekend, the cost to buy gold in Dollars was heading for a 2.2% weekly gain by Friday lunchtime in London. Prices to buy gold in Euros were up 1.8% on the week at around €40,900 per kilo (€1270 per ounce), while Sterling gold prices were up nearly 2% at around £1050 per ounce). Silver prices meantime held steady just below $32.50 per ounce during Friday morning's London trading – heading for a 1.6% weekly gain after posting gains in Thursday's US session. CME Group, which operates the New York Comex futures and options exchange, has said it will cut its margins on silver futures for the second time since February. China – the world's second largest source of private gold bullion demand last year – saw its economy grow at its slowest rate in nearly three years during the first quarter of 2012, according to official data published Friday. Gross domestic product grew 8.1% in Q1 compared to the same period last year, lower than most forecasts. And down from 8.9% growth in the final quarter of 2011. "What's clear is that the economy is still decelerating and the property sector clearly is deflating," says Yao Wei, Hong Kong-based China economist at Societe Generale. "It seems that property investment has finally started to correct. I think this trend will continue and will drag growth even lower in coming months so we don't think this is the bottom yet. It means more monetary easing will be needed to prevent a sharper deceleration." China's central bank has cut reserve requirement ratios – the amount banks need to hold in reserve as a proportion of their assets – twice in the last six months. New loans last month were over 1 trillion Yuan, their highest level for a year. Here in the UK, so-called 'factory gate' inflation – the price of outputs as measured by the producer price index – fell to 3.6% last month, down from 4.1% a month earlier. Over in Europe meantime, German consumer price inflation was 2.1% in March – compared to February's 2.3%. The European Central Bank is more likely to resume buying government bonds on the open market through its Securities Markets Programme than hold a third three year longer term refinancing operation (LTRO), according to a survey by newswire Bloomberg. "Market stresses will eventually force the ECB to restart the bond program, but it's not imminent," reckons Ken Wattret, chief Euro are economist at BNP Paribas in London. European banks borrowed over €1 trillion in total at the LTROs held in December and February. Banks in Spain – which last month borrowed a record €316.3 billion from the ECB through its other liquidity channels, double February's figure – are thought to have used a lot of this funding to buy Spanish government bonds. Benchmark yields on Spanish 10-Year bonds dropped from over 6.5% last November to less than 5% earlier this year following the announcement of the LTROs – though they have since risen again and are currently just below 6%. "There is mounting evidence that the LTRO is pretty toxic for banks and isn't working," says James Nixon, a former ECB official now chief European economist at Societe Generale in London. "Something is wrong when you load up on assets that were considered risky in November and deemed un-risky in January," adds Royal Bank of Scotland chief European economist Jacques Cailloux. "Now we're seeing the worst you could have hoped for. As soon as the situation of the sovereign worsens, banks will come under additional market pressure. That's extremely negative." "Given the return of the debt worries," says a note from Swiss bullion refiners MKS, "gold will likely remain underpinned in the coming sessions. Nevertheless, one should keep in mind that the metal still remains capped by its overhead trend line resistance of $1680." "But in order to capitalize on Europe's renewed woes," adds UBS, "gold needs to start behaving as a safe haven again. A one-day performance is not enough." Ben Traynor Gold value calculator | Buy gold online at live prices Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. (c) BullionVault 2011 Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 04:56 AM PDT By Will Bancroft: Only weeks ago Italian technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti proselytized that the Eurozone crisis was "almost over". It felt like more propaganda from the European establishment, and since returning from the Easter break the markets don't seem to be agreeing with him. Spanish and Italian yields are firmly on the rise again, marking a reverse of the trend helped into action by €1bn of refinancing money from the ECB. Tensions are rising once more given that Spain and Italy are 'too big to bail'. We've touched on Italy before in these pages; her lack of competitiveness, and her long term debt accumulation antics. Although some facts about Spain's plight have become pub and dinner party conversation, >22% unemployed and >50% youth unemployment, Spain is increasingly unable to escape investors' attention. Spanish 10-year bond yields hit 6% yesterday. Without more LTRO from the ECB the march to the psychologically crucial 7% Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 04:49 AM PDT By Paulo Santos: A recurring theme gold [(GLD)(IAU)] speculators use to justify their positions, is that gold, over time, works as an inflation hedge. This argument has severe problems. Over the very long term, gold can indeed act as an inflation hedge. But as with any other asset, it matters greatly at what levels you buy it. At the tail end of a giant bull market, gold as any other over-inflated asset does not hedge inflation properly. Indeed, it can even lead to massive nominal losses (never mind the real ones). This can be proved simply by looking at a long-term gold chart (source: the-privateer.com). (Click charts to enlarge) As we can clearly see, anyone who bought gold in late 1979/early 1980, spent 20 years taking in nominal losses - not only didn't gold compensate for inflation, it compounded its horrible effects on purchasing power. This, in a way, reminds me of something Complete Story » |
| What Drives Stock Market Performance? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 04:41 AM PDT By Michael Dever: By Michael Dever and John Uebler History has taught us, again and again, that when it comes to finance, the unexpected should be expected. No single financial system in recorded history has operated without experiencing a crisis that decimated value. It has never been a question of "if," just a question of "when." The purpose of this article is not to make predictions of economic collapse. It is to ensure that your portfolio is positioned to profit regardless of the economic environment or the performance of any individual market. Conventional investment wisdom is based on the following assumptions:
Complete Story » |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 04:20 AM PDT Gold Investing yields no income. But does it make life cheaper in future...? |
| CME To Cut Silver, Copper, Palladium Margins Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:57 AM PDT
from silverseek.com: he CME Group, the biggest operator of U.S. futures exchanges, will cut margins for COMEX silver futures for the second time since February in an attempt to boost liquidity after a narrow price range tempered trading interest. CME said in a statement it will cut the initial margin for COMEX 500 silver futuresby 12.5 percent to $18,900 per contract from $21,600, and the maintenance margin will be lowered to $14,000 from $16,000 per contract, effective after close of business on April 16. "The margins are still relatively high compared to a year ago," said Nick Trevethan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore. Keep on reading @ silverseek.com |
| Fractal Analysis: 2012 Silver to $70++ Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:54 AM PDT
from silverseek.com: Around this point in the fractal cycle in the late 70's, Gold busted out of its channel to rise sharply higher, along with Silver. Silver's channel top will lie up around $68 to $70 over the coming months which we believe will be reached in 2012. The next higher angled resistance bands for Silver run from $112 to $115, and then up at the $123 area. By the end of the Silver Bull, we expect to see Silver reach $500+. Dollar Devaluation Drives The Fractal Relationships Keep on reading @ silverseek.com |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:52 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Gold has been weathering some considerable selling pressure lately, which has naturally turned sentiment quite pessimistic. Bearish commentary abounds, with all kinds of predictions for further declines. But as is usually the case after any material selloff spooks traders, gold's technicals are actually very bullish today. Gold's next move will likely prove to be a major rally. Gold's latest selloff started on February 29th when the Fed Chairman's testimony before Congress convinced traders that a third round of quantitative easing is becoming less likely. Gold plummeted 5.1% on this latest in a long line of irrational QE3 scares, its biggest down day since the stock panic. Over the 6 weeks since, gold has retreated as much as 9.3% at worst (including that initial plunge). Of course gold's day-to-day price action has felt weak during this selloff, sparking plenty of fears, anxiety, and worries in the hearts of speculators and investors. But as always in the markets, the tyranny of the present deludes traders into foolishly missing the forest for the trees. Perspective is crucial to maintain, as keeping current events properly framed within longer-term context short circuits the perilous emotions of greed and fear. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:51 AM PDT
from news.goldseek.com: Is gold's run over? Let's look at some facts. The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programs, now tops $15.23 trillion. That's roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the U.S. economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, 2011. Among advanced economies, only Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan and Portugal have debts larger than their economies. The U.S. government spent over 454 billion dollars just on interest on the national debt during fiscal 2011. Keep on reading @ news.goldseek.com |
| Gold To Repeat Q2 / Q3 2011 Gains In 2012? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:46 AM PDT
from zerohedge.com: eaker gold prices are being attributed to China's weaker than expected Q1 GDP data. However, Asian equity indices were higher. A slightly stronger U.S. dollar and oil prices back below $103 a barrel (NYMEX) may be contributing to today's weakness. China's GDP grew 8.1% which was well below expectations – expanding at its slowest pace since Q1 2009. GDP growth slowed from the 8.9% rise in Q4 of 2011 and was below the average forecast from economists polled by Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Reuters. The North Korean rocket launch may have led to a safe haven bid which was taken out of the market after the rocket failure. Gold bullion remains supported, mostly due to a pickup in physical Indian and Chinese gold demand this week. There are expectations of sustained Indian consumption next week in the lead up to the Akshaya Tritiya festival later this month. Western physical buying remains unusually anaemic – for now. Keep on reading @ zerohedge.com |
| Opportunity in Veiled Realities Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:41 AM PDT "This Decade will be the Decade of Silver." Eric Sprott This decade increasingly offers the opportunity to Profit and Protect Wealth provided one is aware of Key Realities that are Veiled from common view. One such Veiled (except to a few, including most readers here) Reality is that the Price of Silver (and Gold) is subject to ongoing Cartel (Note 3) Price Suppression operations. Given that the demand for Physical Silver exceeds Mine Production, these Price Suppression actions create bargain Silver prices for those willing to buy Physical and Hold through volatility. "The manipulation is giving silver investors a double-barreled bonanza. One, a cheap price to buy at than would otherwise be the case and, two, a much higher price to sell at once the manipulation is ended." Ted Butler, Silver Analyst Thus, knowledge of The Veiled Reality – Silver Price Manipulation causing unnaturally low Silver prices temporarily – provides considerable Profit and Wealth Protection potential. Another way of regarding the Veiled Reality Approach is through the Prism of the George Soros' comment. "Find a Trend whose Premise is False and Bet Against It" A (False) premise is the Veil which covers The Reality – the "True" Premise. Another Reality which is veiled is the Universe of Real Statistics (vis-Ã -vis Official Statistics). Official Statistics are often Bogus, particularly in the US, but elsewhere also. Consider, for example, the Non-Farm Payroll Figure for March, 2012 released Friday, April 6. The Official BLS Release reported a rise of 120,000 (itself a disappointing 80,000 below prior Establishment Estimates). In fact the rise was only a mere 30,000. The other 90,000 can be accounted for by a totally made-up number, the (Bureau of Labor Statistics) CESBD Birth-Death adjustment, by which it is assumed that new business startups created 90,000 jobs. This Birth-Death Fiction is the Veil that covers the Reality of a mere 30,000 rise in U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. The Reality is that 150,000 New Jobs need to be created in the U.S. every month just to keep up with U.S. population growth (90% of which is Immigration generated). Similarly, Real U.S. Inflation is 10.45% per shadowstats.com (see Note 1). Thus our High Yield Portfolio aims for a Total Return (Gain + Yield) in excess of Real Inflation (see Note 2). Thus these Veils hide The Realities. As the Real Inflation and other figures show, the U.S. is already on the Hyperinflationary Threshold, is not recovering economically, and has declining job creation. Finally, an increasingly-less-veiled, but extremely important Reality, is that of Debt Saturation, and not just that of the PIIGS, but also of France, Great Britain, and the USA. Sovereign Debts of these Nations simply cannot be repaid under any reasonably likely economic scenario. Indeed, Spanish and Italian 10yr. Note Yields have been approaching the Ominous 6% again, a sign "The Market" recognizes the fact that these Sovereign Debts are not payable. Therefore they likely will be inflated away via ever greater waves of Central Bank Money Printing (see Deepcaster's Article "The Hooker-Opportunity" from 3/23/2012 posted in 'Articles by Deepcaster' for details). And this will eventually bring Hyperinflation in Essential Tangible Assets and the P.M.'s. (Already we have seen this in Food and Energy.) Thus the Central Banks Cartel will attempt to retain power through ever increasing Money Printing and loan restructuring. Consider: "We've all heard the old adage about adding insult to injury but the IMF has turned it into an art form. The new IMF Director, Christine Lagarde, came to Washington this week begging for yet more billions so the fund can continue propping up insolvent European banks and wrapping developing countries around the globe in debt chains. …Lagarde didn't mention this in her speech, but she did assure the crowd that at the IMF "your money is used prudently." "The only thing that is remarkable about this is that the public is expected to believe it. No one who has any understanding of the IMF's past or how it operates would expect that these funds to be used in any other way than they always have been: as leverage over the governments that sign their peoples on to debt servitude. "The fallout from these operations is invariably the same. The people figure out that they've been footed with the bill for someone else's party and the riots begin. "These types of protests aren't merely predictable, they're part of the plan. The IMF and World Bank documents that leaked out in 2001 detailed the four step plan for looting a country, including the "IMF riot" stage. People take to the streets to protest the austerity measures that are tied to the IMF loans, causing foreign capital to flee, governments to go bankrupt, and foreign speculators to pick up the pieces at fire sale prices. The riots happened in Indonesia in 1998. And Bolivia in 2000. And Ecuador and Argentina in 2001. What's happening in Europe is not an exact analogue, and it's aimed at centralizing power in the EU in Brussels and the ECB in Frankfurt, but that the IMF has seen the crisis as an excuse to get its foot in Europe's door as a lender is particularly telling. "This is how the game is played…" "Triggering Economic Disaster: the Insidious Role of the International Monetary Fund" James Corbett, International Forecaster, 4/8/2012 We have not reviewed the "documents leaked out in 2001," so we do not know whether Corbett's characterization is entirely correct. But what is indisputable is the Power of the International Mega-Bankers, an important Veiled (but increasingly less so) Reality. What is also clear is that The Outcome will not be pretty. We have been recommending (see Note 2) High Yield Dividend Paying Stocks and Gold for many months now. There is wisdom in the Boy Scout Motto: "Be Prepared." Best regards, Deepcaster April 12, 2012 Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com) Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported March 16, 2012 2.87% / 10.45% U.S. Unemployment reported April 6, 2012 8.2% / 22.2% U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported March 29, 2012 1.62% / -2.70% U.S. M3 reported April 7, 2012 (Month of March, Y.O.Y.) No Official Report / 3.54% (e) And Official Source Disinformation continues; consider Shadowstats comments on the January 6, 2012 release of U.S. Employment data: "The reported seasonally-adjusted 200,000 jobs surge in December 2011 payrolls included a false, seasonally-adjusted gain of roughly 42,000 in the "Couriers and Messengers" category. That gain was an artifact of the seasonal-adjustment process and will remove itself in the January 2012 numbers. "The problem is that this 42,000 gain is part of a seasonal pattern that fully reverses itself each January…" "December Payroll Seasonal-Adjustment Problem" www.shadowstats.com, John Williams, 1/6/12 Note 2: Our recent Forecasts of "Turns Impending" have been correct. Equities for example, have been downtrending for a week now. The $US has popped back up to trade near 80ish basis USDX. And the 10Yr US T-Note yield has popped back down under 2% as we forecast. What next? Is the last two days' Equities Rally sustainable? We continue to monitor "Veiled" Realities (the subject of our May letter) – Realities hidden under MSM Spin and/or Bogus Official Numbers. Real U.S. Inflation is 10.45% (per shadowstats.com) thus our High Yield Portfolio aims for a Total Return (Gain + Yield) in excess of Real Inflation. Knowing such Veiled Realities leads to considerable Opportunities for Profit. Therefore we recommend Buying an Underpriced MLP in a Key Sector, and with a recent yield bouncing around 10%, in our High Yield Portfolio. To see our Buy Recommendation and our Forecasts for Key Sectors including Equities, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, and our identification of Key Veiled Realities, read our May Letter, "Reality Mining for Profit" just posted in Letters Archive at deepcaster.com. Note 3: We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster's December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled "Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions - III" and Deepcaster's July, 2010 Letter entitled "Profit from a Weakening Cartel; Buy Reco; Forecasts: Gold, Silver, Equities, Crude Oil, U.S. Dollar & U.S. T-Notes & T-Bonds" in the 'Alerts Cache' and 'Latest Letter' Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster's profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these "Interventionals." Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster's recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably. |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 02:51 AM PDT Stefan Molyneux, host of Freedomain Radio, takes the reins for the Peter Schiff show, April 11, 2012, and discusses currency, healthcare, the gold standard, the Federal Reserve, inflation, the euro, parenting, human nature, epigenetics, and peak oil with Chris Martenson of the Crash Course. Also, a number of brilliant listeners call in with excellent questions. Freedomain Radio is the largest and most popular philosophy show on the web – http from stefbot: ~TVR |
| Gold To Repeat April, May and Q2 / Q3 2011 Gains in 2012? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 02:03 AM PDT gold.ie |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 01:39 AM PDT I take away an important perspective on Silver from Max Keiser which I did not consider previously. I contrast and find synergies between buying silver as the expression of free speech within the context of corporate fascism and oligarchy. from wepollock: I mention the fact that employees in corporations do not have free speech and that that would natural flow into the broader context of corporate fascism. As a working example I cite a youtube video with 3000000 hits geting taken down because it rubs the educational industrial complex the wrong way. Perhaps vested interests view silver as having dangerous use symbolism as illustrated by the finding that NORFED silver was according to the court counterfeit currency. What is the integrity of NORFED $20 coins that now have $32 in spot metal value? The so called Freedom Tower also represents an important symbol. It was nice to hear that Joe the Silver Futurist agreed with me regarding the importance of the Freedom Tower. On another note Spain continues to destabilize. Max did mention that I seem to have ruffled the feathers of Gonzalo Lira, I explained that first the guy totally discounts my concerns regarding a bank holiday in Spain, then he refuses to debate me, and worst yet he reverses his position on a dime by suggesting a Bank Holiday might occur in Spain. I called Lira on his Flip Flop by "Suggesting he Stick to Film." When I was on the Max Keiser Report I suggested that the potential existed for a "Bank Holiday" in parts of the … ~TVR |
| Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk 04/13/12 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:43 AM PDT North Korea fires dud, but the story is they fired. Not a major immediate threat but add Iran. Syria. Economic numbers weaker, maybe not a Q3 event but still leaves the Fed very accommodative. Higher inflation , blah blah. No physical buying but remember the retail guy is always late. Would like to see gold wash into the mid $1,550's and silver re-test $28 but still do not believe the final stages of this market have not been seen yet. As seen yesterday risks are to the shorts but it's a market to lock gains when they appear. |
| Jaun Carlos Atrigas: Edible Gold Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:33 AM PDT Jaun Carlos Atrigas of the World Gold Council examines edible gold and other Au trends. ~TVR |
| PM Prices Head for Week’s Gain despite China Slowing Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:09 AM PDT Dollar prices to buy gold hovered just below $1,680 per ounce Friday morning in London – back at levels last seen 10 days ago – as stock markets and industrial commodities ticked lower and government bonds gained. |
| Does the 2012 Presidential Election Matter? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:00 AM PDT Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can follow him on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/matthewstoller If you picked up a newspaper in DC this week, it would have been hard to avoid noticing that a bizarre and irrelevant spat is consuming much of the insider political media and top political officials. Earlier this week, a corporate lobbyist named Hilary Rosen tweeted a vague insult at GOP Presidential nominee wife Ann Romney. Rosen said that Romney had never worked a day in her life, and so could not credibly speak to the economic concerns of women. The Republicans demanded an apology. Rosen refused. Obama advisors like David Axelrod and Jim Messina then weighed in on Romney's side. Eventually, Rosen caved to the pressure and apologized. This is why.
Just what is going on? How did one mildly annoying tweet from a corporate lobbyist who isn't working on a political campaign come to dominate the electoral coverage for days for the office of the most powerful political position in the world? Political scientist Tom Ferguson has noted that there are always two elections at work concurrently in America, a public election that voters see, and a hidden election where funders operate in shifting coalitions to pull the levers of power. In this case, it's the very triviality that is on display that speaks to what is going. Rosen, a corporate lobbyist who represents or has represented copyright interests, for-profit colleges, and BP, is fighting with David Axelrod, who has made money from the nuclear industry, and Anna Romney, who rides expensive horses bought by her husband's private equity millions. This is staged kabuki between powerful millionaires, none of whom can credibly speak from recent experience on economic struggles. The 2012 election, in other words, is at this point a completely empty enterprise, bereft of substance, or integrity. This is new to our era, reminiscent of the late 19th century electoral landscape which was dominated by policy consensus around corruption and plutocracy while electoral contests were organized around "bloody shirt" smear campaigns. Populism intruded briefly, but there's a reason that time period was known as the time of the robber barons. It's increasingly analogous to our time. In 2003-2004, a large Democratic field and George Bush bitterly debated questions of war and peace. In 2007-2008, both parties saw significant debate between multiple candidates in which they argued about a whole set of questions, from war to civil liberties to the financial crisis. The financial crisis was probably determinative in 2008, with the lead seesawing between the two candidates until John McCain "suspended" his campaign. There was a substantive amount of deceit, of course, in previous contests, and it's true that many of the promises were not real. But at least the candidates had to debate in a way in which their words had to bear some resemblance to the world in which voters resided. But this time, there is literally no relationship between the reality of the policy questions and the political debate. Yesterday, I pointed out that income inequality under Obama is actually worse than it was under Bush, and that the trend of increasingly inequality has accelerated. One might think that the Presidential race would be the time to debate, even if it's only in some sort of fake manner, questions about these kinds of problems. Wouldn't the Republicans be able to succeed, even cynically and dishonestly, by highlighting policy failures leading to this? For instance, at the same time as the Rosen spat occurred, this week we also saw a report from the Inspector General of TARP that Tim Geithner's Treasury Department has simply not implemented a $7 billion program intended to help families hardest hit by foreclosures. That could have been a scandal of sorts, with the Republicans attacking the administration for incompetence and the administration making arguments about its economic stewardship. The major problem facing our economic structure is the collapse of the housing finance system, with 96% of mortgages at this point backed explicit by government. Yet, no debate, nothing. It's millionaire kabuki. There are now murders happening around the foreclosure crisis. Nothing. No pressure from the left, or the right. Major policy initiatives, such as the JOBS Act eliminating accounting requirements for companies using public equity markets, are now bipartisan, beyond debate. AFL-CIO President Rich Trumka is apparently "personally disgusted" by that bill, but he can't help but argue how Barack Obama is the President for the middle class. The Democratic campaign will center in at least some part on tax justice and economic fairness, with the Republicans decrying class warfare. Yet, the data on inequality betrays that this narrative is completely disconnected from substance, from reality. Without an debate over the policies that led to this endpoint, it's hard to figure out whether the 2012 election matters. Since Obama is still taken seriously when he promises to redress inequality immediately after signing the JOBS Act, this debate can't happen. Politics can matter, though it doesn't always. Sometimes it matters a lot – FDR was an important President, because he was able to use the policy space opened up by the depression. He did not have to be the nominee, but he was. Richard Nixon pursued different policies than Hubert Humphrey, and Jimmy Carter was a different policy animal than Ronald Reagan or Ted Kennedy. Sometimes that difference is meaningful, but not structural. Huey Long as Senator pushed through deposit insurance. Rep. Alan Grayson was able to insert a Federal Reserve audit in Dodd-Frank, which somewhat opened up the central bank to the public. Senator Howard Metzenbaum and Jesse Helms were personally responsible for an killing enormous amount of legislation. This year, renowned foreclosure fighter Lisa Epstein is running for Clerk of the Court in Palm Beach County, a position with a surprising amount of power. Were she to win, she would be able to join other people in similar positions, like Jeff Thigpen in North Carolina, John O'Brien in Massachusetts and Curtis Hertel in Michigan, and change the contours of the foreclosure crisis in her locality. This is not to say that politics is the only route to social change, it certainly is not. And this is not a "your vote matters" argument. It doesn't always matter. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. What is striking is how little pressure is coming from the populace, towards the political elites in both parties. The Republicans have a bitter class divide within their party, but they have quickly clamped down on the populists in their midst. Meanwhile, Barack Obama can give stump-speeches on his support for the middle class with a straight face. Until this dynamic changes, and someone or something forces a real debate that reconnects substance and politics, our American decline will continue. Until then, the debates in DC will happen behind closed doors among powerful interests, and the public will only witness a fierce kabuki performance over Hilary Rosen's tweets.
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| South Africa's mine production numbers lowest in 50 years Posted: 12 Apr 2012 11:47 PM PDT South Africa's mine production numbers lowest in 50 years Due to weak markets, safety related shutdowns and strikes, South Africa has recorded its lowest mine output numbers in 50 years with gold, platinum, copper, nickel and nonmetallics particularly hard hit. Iron ore, chrome and manganese bucked the trend Author: Christy Filen Posted: Thursday , 12 Apr 2012 JOHANNESBURG (MINEWEB) - Statistics South Africa's preliminary report on mining production and sales for February 2012 has revealed numbers that are the lowest since 1961. Mike Schüssler, founder and economist at Economists.co.za, has provided a graph that shows the dip in the latest mining production numbers outstripping the lowest levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and Black Monday in 1987. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...ail&id=110649 |
| CME Group to cut silver margins for 2nd time since Feb Posted: 12 Apr 2012 11:44 PM PDT CME Group to cut silver margins for 2nd time since Feb The group will lower the margins for COMEX silver futures for the second time since February in an attempt to boost liquidity after a narrow price range tempered trading interest. Palladium and copper margins are also to be reduced. Author: By Rujun Shen Posted: Friday , 13 Apr 2012 SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The CME Group, the biggest operator of U.S. futures exchanges, will cut margins for COMEX silver futures for the second time since February in an attempt to boost liquidity after a narrow price range tempered trading interest. CME said in a statement it will cut the initial margin for COMEX 500 silver futures <0#SI:> by 12.5 percent to $18,900 per contract from $21,600, and the maintenance margin will be lowered to $14,000 from $16,000 per contract, effective after close of business on April 16. "The margins are still relatively high compared to a year ago," said Nick Trevethan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore. "If we see volatility continue to decrease, there may be more scope for margin cuts." Margin cuts are mildly supportive of prices, but their effect is not as immediate and strong as margin increases, he added. Margins are deposits paid by investors in futures markets to cover the risk of default. Exchanges typically raise margins to mitigate risks as price volatility in the market increases. CME raised margins five times in late April and early May last year by a total of 84 percent, sending silver down more than 30 percent over two weeks from its record high near $50 an ounce. COMEX silver traded down 0.9 percent to $32.23 an ounce by 0236 GMT. CME also plans to decrease the margins on NYMEX palladium futures <0#PA:> by 9.5 percent. The new initial margin will be $5,225 per contract versus $5,775, and the maintenance margin cut to $4,750 from $5,250. COMEX copper futures <0#HG:> initial margins will be cut by 20 percent to $5,400 per contract, and the new maintenance margin will be $4,000. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...tail&id=92730 |
| Will Bullion Repeat April, May & Q2/Q3 Gains in 2012? Posted: 12 Apr 2012 11:26 PM PDT Gold traded erratically but essentially sideways in Asian trading prior to ticking lower in Europe. Weaker gold prices are attributed to China's weaker Q1 GDP data. A slightly stronger US dollar and oil prices back below $103 a barrel may be contributing to today's weakness. |
| Posted: 12 Apr 2012 11:20 PM PDT I just caught the final few seconds of this, but on CNBC a few minutes ago, the guest was some Toole for the World Gold Council. He gave Andy Rosie Sorghum (whatever his name is) some gold flakes to eat. He sprinkled it on top of something, then ate it. Joe Keirnan said something like "gold doesn't get digested. Let us know if you see the gold come out the other end."  |
| Gold on Track to Fulfill Multiple Roles Posted: 12 Apr 2012 10:59 PM PDT On Thursday gold futures had the biggest one-day rally of 1.22% since Feb. 21. This week gold has rallied more than 3%, helped by the re-assurance by two US Federal Reserve governors that US interest rates will remain low until late 2014 . |
| Gold jumps on bearish talk from Fed Posted: 12 Apr 2012 09:30 PM PDT We got a classic example of how "jawboning" by Federal Reserve officials can move markets yesterday, with New York Fed President William Dudley and Bernanke's deputy Janet Yellen ... |
| Buying The Dips In Gold Has Been The Right Move For A Decade: Frank Holmes Posted: 12 Apr 2012 09:25 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIt was a nothing sort of trading day during the Far East and London markets on Thursday. The low price tick came about half past lunchtime in London...and then edged slowly higher from there. This pastoral setting came to an abrupt end shortly after the equity markets opened in New York at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time...and an hour later, gold had gained about twenty bucks. From there, the gold price worked its way another five bucks higher to its high tick of the day, which was $1,681.30 spot, but got sold off a bit shortly before the 1:30 p.m. Comex close. The gold price traded quietly sideways from there. Gold closed at $1,675.30 spot...up $15.60 on the day. Net volume was pretty light...around 121,000 contracts.
The silver price action was much the same as gold's, expect for the fact that silver gained well over two percent, whereas gold closed up less than a percent. Silver's low came at the same time as gold's...12:30 BST in London...and then shortly after 9:00 a.m. in New York, away it went to the upside. The bulk of the gains were in by 10:40 a.m...but, like gold, the silver price continued to work its way slowly higher...and the high tick of the day also came at the same time as gold...about 1:25 p.m. Eastern. That price was $32.71 spot. From there, silver got sold off by a percent going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Silver finished the Thursday trading session in New York at $32.38 spot...up 77 cents from Wednesday's close. Net volume was a pretty decent 37,000 contracts.
The dollar index opened around 79.75 on Thursday morning in Tokyo...and held in there until minutes after 10:00 a.m. in London...and then it rolled over. The low, around 79.20, came about 1:10 p.m. in New York. From there the index recovered about 15 basis points of that decline...and the dollar index closed down about 40 basis points on the day. It's obvious from the chart below, and the Kitco charts above, that the big jumps in gold and silver prices yesterday had absolutely nothing to do with what was going on in the currency markets.
The gold stocks followed the gold price like a shadow yesterday, with the 1:25 p.m. high in gold being fairly obvious on the HUI chart below. From there, the gold stocks traded sideways, but sold off a hair going into the close. The HUI finished up a very respectable 3.90%.
With the odd exception, the silver equities were on fire yesterday...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index rose by 3.86%. A lot of the juniors did much better than that.
(Click on image to enlarge) The CME's Daily Delivery Report finally showed what I had been waiting for, for many days now. As I'd mentioned last weekend, there were still about 3,300 gold contracts left open in the April delivery month...and I was wondering out loud what the short/issuers were waiting for. Well, some of them showed up yesterday, as 1,040 contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. The two big short/issuers were Merrill and the Bank of Nova Scotia...with 636 and 385 contracts respectively. The big long/stopper was no surprise, as it was JPMorgan taking delivery of 592 contracts in its client account...along with 415 contracts for its in-house trading account. There were no deliveries in silver. The link to the Issuers and Stoppers Report is here...and it's worth a look. There were no reported changes in GLD yesterday...and an authorized participant withdrew 242,736 troy ounces of silver out of SLV. The U.S. Mint reported selling 43,000 silver eagles yesterday...and that was it. There was a lot of movement over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday. They received 1,002,039 troy ounces of silver...and shipped a smallish 76,190 troy ounces out the door. The link to that action is here. Nick Laird sent me a couple of graphs and some commentary to go with them about midnight local time here in Edmonton last night...and here it all is. "Again it looks like the PMs are bottoming here. (There's a clear A-B-C-D-E pattern in the waves.) What's missing so far on this wave down (which could be considered a retest of the bottom made at end of Dec 2011) is a panic V-shaped sell-off which is quite normal in the metals. Bernanke stopped the breakout in late February and perhaps he has put an end to the price seeking a low here considering that the pressure is now back on for more QE."
(Click on image to enlarge) I got an e-mail from Bron Suchecki over at The Perth Mint just before I hit the 'send' button on today's column...and I thought I'd stick his comments in at this point. It appears that Gold Field Mineral Services [GFMS] is calling for miners to return to hedging, which Bron thought "very irresponsible". It's not only irresponsible, it's insanity...and I'll be very much surprised if the gold and silver miners ever go down that road again. But knowing the intellect level of some of the management of these companies, I suppose that I shouldn't put anything past them. Bron told me to check the story about it that he had attached...but there was no attachment and I couldn't find it using my computer's search engine. It's after 5:00 p.m. on Friday afternoon in Perth, so he's already gone for weekend...however I'm sure the story will show up on the Internet at some point today. I have the usual number of stories today...and I hope you have time to at least hit the high points. I was more than impressed by the price action in the precious metal stocks yesterday...and I'm hoping that this is a trend that will continue. Vietnam goes nuclear on gold. China buying gold? GFMS suggests miners should go back to hedging. Gold and silver break above their respective 20-day moving averages. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeGoldman Sachs fined $22 million over 'huddles'Goldman Sachs Group Inc. settled charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, agreeing to pay a $22 million fine over allegations that the Wall Street bank didn't have policies to prevent analysts from sharing nonpublic information with the firm's traders. The exchanges took place in weekly "huddles," where Goldman's research analysts met to provide "their best trading ideas" to the firm's traders and later passed them on to a select group of "top clients," the SEC said. "Despite being on notice from the SEC about the importance of such controls, Goldman failed to implement policies and procedures that adequately controlled the risk that research analysts could preview upcoming ratings changes with select traders and clients," said Robert Khuzami, the SEC's director of enforcement. No surprises here, but it's a good bet that this sort of activity goes on at just about every Wall Street brokerage firm there is. I thank Florida reader Donna Badach for sending me this marketwatch.com story from yesterday...and the link is here.  Energy regulators in new push to quash manipulationEmboldened energy market regulators are mounting an aggressive new campaign to stamp out a once-common trading practice that crosses physical and paper markets, unnerving traders who fear a backlash over years-old deals. Away from the contentious debate over Dodd-Frank derivative market reforms that followed the 2008 financial crisis, this new battle takes place in the gray area separating cash markets for commodities like crude oil and power from the swaps or futures contracts that are tied to those prices. While many companies legitimately trade in both markets, often to hedge their positions, regulators say others are manipulating one market in order to profit in the other. As long as the manipulation is on the long side of the market, the CFTC and SEC will act. But if it's a short side manipulation, they conveniently look the other way. This Reuters story was sent to me by reader Andrew Holland...and the link is here.  Neel Kashkari: Don't Worry, The Fed's Morphine Drip Will Continue To Drip Drip Drip Into 2014Many attribute the stock market's meteoric rise to the liquidity provided by the world's central banks. But in an interview with CNBC, Kashkari tells everyone to calm down because the Fed won't be tightening anytime soon. "Every time the Fed tries to back away from their massive, easing policy, the risk markets react. We saw that last week with the FOMC minutes. This is ...like a morphine drip. You give morphine to the patient, it makes the patient feel better, it doesn't cure the underlying disease. The moment you try to take the morphine away the patient wakes up horrified in a lot of pain." "And so I think risk markets are getting addicted to this easy money policy, and I think as the Fed tries to back away risk markets are going to respond, that's going to put more pressure on the Fed to act. So our central forecast is the Fed will stay easing, maybe even QE3 through the end of 2014 as they forecast, could be even longer." If you check out Kashkari's bio here, you'll see why I don't doubt what he has to say for a minute. I'll go one step further and say that we'll never see a material rise in interest rates ever again. This businessinsider.com story from yesterday was sent to me by Roy Stephens...and the link is here.  Financial Survival Network interviews your humble scribeKerry Lutz was kind enough to interview me yesterday...and the audio interview, along with the transcript, are posted at the financialsurvivalnetwork.com website. The interview runs for about fifteen minutes...and the link is here.  The Return of the Spanish Flu: Uncertainty about Spain Worries Euro ZoneIn Rasquera, they reckon marijuana is the solution. On Wednesday, the authorities in the eastern Spanish village, population 900, announced that the residents had agreed to an unusual plan that the municipality has come up with to fight the crisis. In the future, Rasquera will lease several fields to a Barcelona association that plans to grow hemp there. The revenue is intended to help the municipality reduce its debts of €1.3 million ($1.7 million). Around 500 kilometers (300 miles) away, in Madrid, the federal government is also worried about money. This week, Spain found itself in the financial markets' crosshairs again. On Tuesday, the government had to pay significantly higher interest rates, of almost 6 percent, on its 10-year bonds. Italy's borrowing costs have also risen. The rate that the country pays for one-year bonds more than doubled, to 2.84 percent, from last month's rate of 1.40 percent at an auction on Wednesday, while yields on three-year bonds hit 3.89 percent at an auction on Thursday, up from 2.76 percent last month. It looks like the euro zone is getting sick again -- this time with a case of Spanish flu. This story was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday...and I thank Roy Stephens for bringing it to our attention. The link is here.  ECB may act to bring down Spanish borrowing costsThe European Central Bank may intervene to pull down Madrid's borrowing costs as prime minister Mariano Rajoy warned that debt had created a "vicious circle that strangles Spain". Benoit Coeure, an executive director of the ECB, said the bank could restart its sovereign bond buying programme in a move likely to antagonize Germany but relieve a spiralling political, economic and social crisis in Spain. Mr Coeure said that market fears over Spain were "not justified" but he added: "Will the ECB intervene? We have an instrument, the securities markets programme [SMP] which hasn't been used recently but it still exists." Bond traders were soothed by the comments. The yield on Spain's benchmark 10-year bonds was pulled back from 6pc on Tuesday to 5.88pc, while the yield on Italy's 10-year debt also dropped marginally, to 5.54pc. This story was posted in The Telegraph late Wednesday night...and is another Roy Stephens offering. The link is here.  Spanish bailout 'impossible' for eurozone, says prime minister Mariano RajoyThe eurozone is not equipped to bail out Spain, the country's prime minister Mariano Rajoy has admitted, as global traders continued to punish the nation's stocks and bonds. "To talk about a bail-out for Spain at the moment makes no sense," he told reporters. "Spain is not going to be rescued; it's not possible to rescue Spain, there's no intention to, it's not necessary and therefore it's not going to be rescued." Despite his comments, the Madrid bourse fell and the yields on the country's benchmark bonds remained stubbornly high. While other European markets soared on Thursday following strong gains in America, Spain's Ibex index lost 0.5pc. Politicians in Rome tried to counter the markets' view that Italy was in the same predicament as Spain. This story from The Telegraph yesterday evening is another story that's courtesy of Roy S...and the link is here.  Greek Crisis Leaves Cyprus Mired in DebtA barrier splits Turkish and Cypriot areas of Nicosia, the capital of Cyprus. Banks in the country hold $199 billion in debt. Michalis Sarris is not the only European banker working seven days a week, trying to scrape together enoug |
| CME Group Cuts Silver, Copper, Palladium Futures Margins Posted: 12 Apr 2012 09:25 PM PDT  The amount that speculators must keep on deposit for an initial account in silver futures was reduced 13 percent to $18,900 from $21,600, CME Group said today in a statement on its website. Silver prices tumbled after the Chicago-based CME boosted margins 84 percent in two weeks from late April to early May. The copper margin was cut to $5,400 from $6,750, and palladium was reduced to $5,225 from $5,775. The rates are effective after the close of business on April 16th. |
| IMF: Gold Is A Safe Asset As The Crisis Looms Posted: 12 Apr 2012 09:03 PM PDT
from wealthcycles.com: The U.S. stock market is actively attempting to ignore all down-trending data, as almost every economic indicator in the past two months has missed expectations, culminating with today's increase to 380,000 in initial unemployment claims. Or is it? Federal Reserve market manipulation has distorted the cause-and-effect relationship between economic indicators and the stock markets: the worse the data gets, the more likely Fed currency printing comes sooner than later. Therefore, perversely, bad economic data is bullish for stocks. As an investment strategy, there's just one hiccup: the long ride down as we experience yet another systemic crash. And, as Bernanke admitted in his recent speech on this very issue, there are very few "safe" assets to leverage the rest of the system upon. The IMF warns of illiquidity in "safe haven" markets. Keep on reading @ wealthcycles.com |
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