Gold World News Flash |
- Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Mixed on the Week
- By the Numbers for the Week Ending April 13
- Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for April 13
- Silver Update 4/13/12 Pirate Economy
- Blythe Masters On The Blogosphere, Silver Manipulation, Gold-Axed Clients And Doing The “Wrong” Thing
- Paul Tustain: Be Wary of Balance Sheet Risk
- SBSS 19. Silver Manipulation Part 2
- John Embry - Gold is undervalued - April 12, 2012
- Another attack tries to knock King World News off the Internet
- Transcendent Economic Understanding (TEU)
- Compare & Save When Buying Gold: Check Out These Dealers First!
- Vaulted Gold: What Is It and How Does It Compare With Other Gold Investments?
- Gold Price Rose 1.9 Percent for the Week to Close at $1,659.10 Must Hold Above $1,613
- Rick Rule: Mismatch of Silver Futures and Physical Availability is a Consequence of Stupidity
- Taking the Pulse of Gold Stocks
- Gold Holding Up
- Sovereign Debt, Gold and Okun's Law
- "There’s No Place For Hope On Friday the 13th" - Rout Post-Mortem With Goldman
- Gold Stocks Are Turning Up
- Gold Escapes Bearish Channel and Heads for Weekly Gain
- Arensberg – Sell a Little Gold To Buy Junior Mining Shares
- Europe’s problems as a symptom
- Gold
- Silver Miners Building for Breakout: Chris Marchese
- Could Gold Rise on One Country’s Meltdown?
- Biggest Weekly Stock Plunge In 2012 As Financials FUBAR'd
- Bullish Gold Technicals
- Strange dumping of gold at Comex close, fund manager Bryan says
- Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts
- The Rising Price of a Falling Dollar
| Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Mixed on the Week Posted: 13 Apr 2012 04:00 PM PDT Gold waffled near unchanged in Asia and London, but it then fell back off for most of trade in New York and ended near its late session low of $1649.32 with a loss of 1.14%. Silver slipped to as low as $31.33 and ended with a loss of 2.66%.
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| By the Numbers for the Week Ending April 13 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 03:06 PM PDT |
| Gold and Silver Disaggregated COT Report (DCOT) for April 13 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 02:41 PM PDT HOUSTON -- This week's Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disaggregated commitments of traders (DCOT) report was released at 15:30 ET Friday. Our recap of the changes in weekly positioning by the disaggregated trader classes, as compiled by the CFTC, is just below. In the DCOT table below a net short position shows as a negative figure in red. A net long position shows in black. In the Change column, a negative number indicates either an increase to an existing net short position or a reduction of a net long position. A black figure in the Change column indicates an increase to an existing long position or a reduction of an existing net short position. The way to think of it is that black figures in the Change column are traders getting "longer" and red figures are traders getting less long or shorter. All of the trader's positions are calculated net of spreading contracts as of the Tuesday disaggregated COT report.
Continued… Vultures, (Got Gold Report Subscribers) please note that updates to our linked technical charts, including our comments about the COT reports and the week's technical changes, should be completed by the usual time on Sunday evening (around 18:00 ET). As a reminder, the linked charts for gold, silver, mining shares indexes and important ratios are located in the subscriber pages. In addition Vultures have access anytime to all 30-something Vulture Bargain (VB) and Vulture Bargain Candidates of Interest (VBCI) tracking charts – the small resource-related companies that we attempt to game here at Got Gold Report. Continue to look for new commentary directly in the charts often.
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| Silver Update 4/13/12 Pirate Economy Posted: 13 Apr 2012 02:37 PM PDT |
| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 01:46 PM PDT [Ed. Note: An excellent article we somehow missed on April 5th. If you missed it too, it's certainly worth a read now.] from Zero Hedge :
As some may recall, back in October 2009, Zero Hedge did an exhaustive expose on the relationship between JPMorgan and the then version of MF Global, Lehman Brothers, whose perfectly functioning division, its North American Brokerage, ended up being scooped up by Barclays for pennies on the dollar. In the meantime, however, JPMorgan, with the backing of the Fed, proceeded to demand as much extra collateral for Lehman repo positions on hold with JP Morgan and the Tri-Party repo system, of which JPM is one of only two custodians, simply because it could, and because this is the easiest way for the bank that is even closer to the Fed than Goldman Sachs, to procure liquidity during times of broad distress. Such as when the money market is about to freeze to death. Since then, the topic of just how much JPMorgan may have ripped off the Lehman estate has escalated, and is set to be an epic showdown in the form of a lawsuit which "accuses JPMorgan of using its "life and death power as the brokerage firm's primary clearing bank" to put a "financial gun" to its head and demand excess collateral." And here is the kicker: "It claims JPMorgan abused its access to US government officials and then "accelerated Lehman's free fall into bankruptcy", hoovering up collateral to protect itself to the detriment of the firm and other eventual creditors."
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| Paul Tustain: Be Wary of Balance Sheet Risk Posted: 13 Apr 2012 01:14 PM PDT from ChrisMartensondotcom : In this interview, Chris and Paul discuss gold's current range-bound trading. In general, he's in favor of a stay-the-course approach for bullion investors at the moment as world markets work through their liquidity-induced "sugar highs":
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| SBSS 19. Silver Manipulation Part 2 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:19 PM PDT |
| John Embry - Gold is undervalued - April 12, 2012 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:15 PM PDT John Embry - Goldseek Radio - April 12, 2012 :... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website http://goldbasics.blogspot.com for full Content ]] 
This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Another attack tries to knock King World News off the Internet Posted: 13 Apr 2012 12:05 PM PDT 8:08p ET Friday, April 13, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: The King World News Internet site was attacked this week in ways that seemed aimed particularly at the network's revelatory interview April 5 with its London metals market trader source. The major Internet hosting company that maintains the King World News site reported to the network: "The servers you are hosted on are what we call 'under guard' due to external attack. Sometimes there are millions of these attacks. Without these 'guards' in place, the servers would effectively become flooded and would be unable to display your website." Eric King told GATA today: "The attacks started when the London trader interview piece was released April 5. The attacks continued and intensified when our interview with Jim Sinclair's futures market analyst, Dan Norcini, was published on April 11. A very powerful entity did not want this information out there." ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project. "21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast. To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here: http://www.goldenphoenix.us/company-videos.html King World News experienced a similar "distributed denial of service" attack in March 2010 immediately after it carried an interview with three GATA board members. According to Wikipedia, a distributed denial-of-service attack "is an attempt to make a computer resource unavailable to its intended users. Although the means to carry out, motives for, and targets of a DDoS attack may vary, it generally consists of the concerted efforts of a person or people to prevent an Internet site or service from functioning efficiently or at all, temporarily or indefinitely." This week's attack blocked access to the King World News site for some of its readers around the world. After many hours of work by the site's staff, access has been restored. In a way, these attacks are a tribute to the work done by King World News and the sensitivity of the observations made by the people interviewed there. GATA's dispatch about the April 5 King World News interview with the London trader is here: http://www.gata.org/node/11215 GATA's dispatch about the April 11 King World News interview with Norcini is here: http://www.gata.org/node/11236 GATA's dispatch about the March 2010 attack on King World News is here: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Be Part of a Chance to Discover Northaven Resources Corp. (TSX-V:NTV) is advancing five gold and silver projects in highly prospective and politically stable British Columbia, Canada. Check out the exploration program on our Allco gold/silver project : -- A large (13,000 hectare) property, covering more than 15 square kilometers of a regional mineralized trend just 3km from a recently announced 1.2-million-ounce gold and 15-million-ounce silver deposit. -- The property hosts historic high-grade silver workings and many mineral showings as well as former mines at the property's northern and southern boundaries. -- A deep-penetrating airborne geophysics survey has just been completed on the entire property and neighboring deposits and its results are eagerly awaited. To learn more about the Allco property or Northaven's other gold and silver projects, please visit: http://www.northavenresources.com Or call Northaven CEO Allen Leschert at 604-696-3600.
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| Transcendent Economic Understanding (TEU) Posted: 13 Apr 2012 11:41 AM PDT I woke up earlier than usual, and suddenly decided to try and quietly sneak out of the house so that I could get breakfast out, someplace where wives and children are not yammering about something. My tiptoeing around in the dark is, of course, the silent signal to the wife and kids that I am trying to sneak out of the house unmolested and, if they know what is good for them, they will pretend they are asleep, as if in a coma, until long, long after I am gone so as to include a safety margin of time against my suddenly remembering that I forgot something and have to come back for it, thus catching them sitting around the kitchen, making coffee and plotting against me. Oh, I know that you will say I am wrong, that they are not plotting against me, and that I am just being paranoid. Save your breath. I've heard it before. You only say that because, I assume, your first clue was that I am obviously some kind of paranoid lunatic who's packing so much large-caliber heat that I can hardly stand under the staggering weight of such, predictably, insane amounts firepower, which, including holsters, spare ammo and that those grenade thingies, ain't light, I'm here to say! So while you think you are very clever at discovering the secret, hateful little homicidal paranoid creep that is The Real Mogambo (TRM), the fact is that you ain't even close. I am actually far, far beyond that, out in a bleak wasteland of lost souls, where wolves howl as they slink stealthily closer and closer, their ravenous, slavering jaws fixed into an evil, dripping grin, with their narrowed, blood-red eyes staring intently at my throat, out where I am getting more and more paranoid with every beat of my heart pounding, pounding, pounding in my chest and my breath coming in ragged, painful gasps. So, as you can plainly see, I am A Hell Of A Lot More Angry (AHOALMA) about things, especially since all of our problems are, literally, the fault of the damnable Federal Reserve creating so much money, so incredibly much money, so astoundingly much money, so completely unbelievable much money for the last 50 years or so, mostly in the last 25 years, and mostly under Obama, so as to literally finance such vast governmental stupidities and idiotic mal-investments. And now we are left with the backbreaking, burdensome, ugly and totally-predictable legacy after continually acting with real, genuine stupidity, where constant inflation in the money supply always leads to constant price inflation and gross mal-investment, such as (for example) half -- half! -- of all employed workers in the USA work either for a government (federal, state or local), a school system, a non-profit corporation or a Government Sponsored Enterprise (GSE). Half! So, to recap because I imagine that you are rubbing your eyes in disbelief, half of all working Americans labor for an organization that literally makes no profit, and thus are not tax-payers, but are tax-eaters. And let's not forget that half of all Americans -- half! -- get a government check every month! With the chilling, inviolable, dead-bang, absolute certainty of elementary-school basic arithmetic, this all means that more people are getting money (160 million people) than the number of people actually working (120 million people). And when you exclude government workers, school system workers, non-profit workers and GSE workers from the pool of "workers", you have the ugly, distorted economic monstrosity of only 60 million private-sector workers (20% of all Americans) supporting both themselves and 260 million citizens who do not work for profit or do not work at all (the other 80% of the population)! And so you, really, really, really think that, somehow, perhaps with magic pixie dust or a benevolent interventionist deity, that kind of silly crap can constitute a viable economy? Hahaha! Hey! I think I found your problem! You're a moron! Hahaha! Okay, I am sorry I called you a moron, but that is just the kind of hateful, in-your-face kind of rude guy I am to people who say something so laughably stupid. And I act this disdainful way because of three -- Count 'em! Three! --perfectly salient facts. Firstly, long experience of facing down my wife and kids and the occasional angry neighbor, visitor or passerby has taught me that nobody is stupid enough to tell an angry armed lunatic, like me, that I am wrong about economics, or wrong about anything else, for that matter. Secondly, it is perfectly obvious that I have achieved True Mogambo Enlightenment (TME) to have recognized the wisdom of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory and how it is the Only True Economic Theory In The Whole Freaking Universe (OTETITWFU). Even better, this is economic genius about which you can read, and tread your own path to enlightenment, at Mises.org, which is the biggest and best bargain anywhere, since it gives you Transcendent Economic Understanding (TEU) of Austrian economics, and is completely free! Thirdly, and the most compelling reason of all, the last 3,000 years of history is the same, sad, stupid story of one stupid government after another borrowing itself into bankruptcy, finally flailing about in dire, dreadful desperation, and how these same stupid governments always resorted to printing money, monstrously increasing the money supply, whereupon ruinous inflation in prices, social upheaval and economic collapse always followed. And now here we are again, this time in the hands of lowlife, low-IQ, loathsome neo-Keynesian econometric Princeton and California clowns, doing that same tired monetary expansion crap, but with fancy equations and computers to justify their abject stupidity. On the positive side, the Wonderful And Immortal Lesson (WAIL) from all of this, distilled as it is from millennia of governments, is to buy gold and silver, as much as you can, for as long as you can. And with the modern addition of oil, the lifeblood of modern economies, buying gold, silver and oil to prosper in the coming cataclysm is so easy, and so seemingly certain, that it makes you giggle "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!" 
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| Compare & Save When Buying Gold: Check Out These Dealers First! Posted: 13 Apr 2012 10:56 AM PDT Compare and save! Who is the most reputable, cheapest and most reliable precious metals dealer to buy your physical gold and silver from? Their are hundreds of dealers touting their wares but when it comes to direct comparisons only a few rise to the top of the list. Here they are. Words: 262 As editor of www.munKNEE.com*(Your Key to Making Money) I am pleased to provide you with a link below*to a site that provides an interactive information*assessment as to*the: [LIST] [*]safety provisions [*]storage options [*]purchase premiums [*]annual storage fees [*]other information [/LIST]of a variety of prominent bullion dealers. When it comes to buying some, or buying more, gold and/or silver you will now know the competitive landscape and be in a better position to negotiate better terms with*another dealer should that end up being your preference. Here is the link to the “Compare Gold Investments” interactive calculator on *www.trustablegold.com [INDENT]Daily Delivery Avai...
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| Vaulted Gold: What Is It and How Does It Compare With Other Gold Investments? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 10:56 AM PDT The infographic below*on vaulted gold explains what vaulted gold is and visualizes key facts relating to investments in gold that*is stored on behalf of investors in high-security vaults. Below is an infographic from www.trustablegold.com for your viewing pleasure as presented by www.munKNEE.com – Your Key to Making Money! Daily Delivery Available! If you enjoy this site and would like to have every article sent automatically to you then [COLOR=#ff0000][COLOR=#ff0000]go HERE and sign up to receive Your Daily Intelligence Report[/COLOR]. We provide an easy "unsubscribe" feature should you decide to opt out at any time.[/COLOR] *[URL]http://www.trustablegold.com/vaulted-gold-infographic/[/URL] [Editor's Note: Ian Campbell, author of a daily series of articles in which he challenges every reader to "think for yourself'*(see links to several of his articles below), has brought to my attention that "the charts that*show the $ amount said to be invested in 'gold investments' (whic...
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| Gold Price Rose 1.9 Percent for the Week to Close at $1,659.10 Must Hold Above $1,613 Posted: 13 Apr 2012 10:46 AM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1,659.10 Gold Price Close 5-Apr : 1,628.50 Change : 30.60 or 1.9% Silver Price Close Today : 3138 Silver Price Close 5-Apr : 3171.6 Change : -33.60 or -1.1% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.871 Gold Silver Ratio 5-Apr : 51.346 Change : 1.52 or 3.0% Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01891 Silver Gold Ratio 5-Apr : 0.01948 Change : -0.00056 or -2.9% Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 160.10 Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Apr : $ 165.78 Change : $ (5.68) or -3.4% Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.745 Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Apr : 8.020 Change : -0.27 or -3.4% Dow in Silver Ounces : 409.48 Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Apr : 411.78 Change : -2.30 or -0.6% Dow Industrial : 12,849.59 Dow Industrial 5-Apr : 13,060.14 Change : -210.55 or -1.6% S&P 500 : 1,370.26 S&P 500 5-Apr : 1,398.08 Change : -27.82 or -2.0% US Dollar Index : 79.888 US Dollar Index 5-Apr : 80.070 Change : -0.182 or -0.2% Platinum Price Close Today : 1,581.60 Platinum Price Close 5-Apr : 1,600.00 Change : -18.40 or -1.2% Palladium Price Close Today : 643.20 Palladium Price Close 5-Apr : 646.10 Change : -2.90 or -0.4% The SILVER and GOLD PRICE dropped today. Silver lost 3.5% and gave up 113.5c, all the 100.4c it had gained yesterday and then some, closing at 3138c. GOLD PRICE gave back $20.40, virtually all the $20.50 it had gained yesterday, and closed at 1,659.10. None of this was good, but also not nearly fatal. The GOLD PRICE low today at $1,649.40 matched yesterday's. Gold continues in the same situation that has lasted all week: as long as it remains above $1,630, it is trending up. Clearly a line in that battle has been drawn at $1,650, so if gold crumples there on Monday, it promises to sink all the way to $1,630.00 This week the GOLD PRICE has reached the 38.2% correction of its Sept -Dec. fall. More, it stands under a cluster of converging moving averages -- 50, 150, and 200 -- and strong lateral resistance at $1,682. Of course I know that this sideways movement is frustrating, but as long as it remains above $1,613 gold will keep on rising. On a less cheery note, the 3 year weekly gold chart shows what MIGHT be a breakdown. A close below $1,613 would confirm that breakdown and then we've got a painful mess. If that mess didn't catch at $1,525 (last low), it could drop to $1,475. that would finish off a monstrous bullish falling wedge which then would explode upside. Now I know every one of us hears the LAST thing we're told, so right now y'all run back and read the next to the last paragraph. I expect $1,613 to hold. Thinking about the weekly chart, look at the SILVER PRICE weekly chart, where a different picture emerges. There silver has formed a long even-sided triangle, from which it will break out to the upside. No talking out of both sides of the mouth there. Silver whispers gold will not drop. Silver's 5-day chart looks unnatural. Flat as a fritter between 3190 and 3100 Monday through half of Thursday, then a straight up leap to 3250, and a fall off today to 3138c. Stay with this: silver must hold 3100c. Close below that pulls silver down. No close below that, silver will move sideways or rise. Don't miss the Dow in Gold Dollars, which dropped the week G$5.68 (0.249 ounces). It is trying to break down. End of the SILVER and GOLD correction draweth nigh. Lower prices are offering you one last chance to buy a cheap ticket for the bull ride. Sometimes when everything is dragging the ground, you have to ask yourself which is the least worst. On bad news out of Europe today (surprise, surprise) the dollar jumped while stocks tanked. I wonder some times if the Nice Government Men "tasked" with manipulating the dollar have some Big Hancho In Charge ("Big Hick") who at the end of the week looks at the market and "adjusts" it. Why am I so durned suspicious? Well, the nasty US Dollar index traded down, down this week, made a new low for the move which in any free market would have sent it shooting lower after breaking the 20 and 50 day moving averages, but today did it sink like a watch in a churn? Nope, rose 54.9 basis points (0.71%) to 79.888. What can I say? Only note with distaste and disgust that the dollar must rise over 80 to turn up, and close below 78.50 to break down. Japanese yen has reached the 124 level and stalled, sliding down the underside of its 50 DMA. Last three days Yen has remained virtually flat, and today closed 123.69c against yesterday's 123.66c, against Wednesday's 123.60c. One begins to wonder if the rally we have seen was no more than an upward correction in a longer down move. News leaked out today that Spanish banks' borrowing from the European Central bank surged to new highs in March. The capitalist rats are leaving the socialist ship, pulling money out of Spanish banks and leaving them on the mercy of the ECB for funding Spanish stocks dropped 3.6% today (think a 450 point drop in the Dow) to a new 3 year low as Spanish bond yields reached for 6%. Credit Default Swaps on Spanish debt reached their highest price on record. Italian bond yields rose and all Euro stock markets shrank. All this places Spain on the candidate list for Next European Bailout, and helps explain why the euro fell 0.8% today to $1.3081. If you have euros, sell 'em. Monday's fall and the rest of the week's weakness (owch! Sorry) leave behind a double, maybe triple, stop in the Dow. Can't yet write out of the picture a possible brief surge to 13,300 or higher (only a close below 12,250 would do that), but stocks look sick. Today the Dow lost 136.99 (think 1.05%) to close at 12,849.59. S&P500 closed down 17.31 or 1.25% at 1,370.26. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com 888-218-9226 10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday © 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down. WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned: Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures. NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps. NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced. NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt. What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands. One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. 
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| Rick Rule: Mismatch of Silver Futures and Physical Availability is a Consequence of Stupidity Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:58 AM PDT |
| Taking the Pulse of Gold Stocks Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:57 AM PDT April 13, 2012 [LIST] [*]A date for $2,000 gold... and a chart to buttress the forecast [*]Gold stocks stuck where they were more than two years ago... Chris Mayer, Rick Rule assess what's gone wrong and what to do from here [*]Hopscotching the world: (Still) another plus for Burma... while Greece reverts to barter [*]The perpetual curse of "homes as ATMs"... a TSA one-liner... One-click access to Chris Mayer's "online adventure tour"... and more! [/LIST] Gold is ending the week doing a little more backing and filling. After yesterday's run-up, the spot price has pulled back to $1,665. $2,000 looks far off in the distance. To say nothing of last September's $1,900 high. Then again, it could happen with the snap of a finger. "A push on toward $2,000 is definitely on the cards before the year is out," says Philip Klapwijk, "although a clear breach of that mark is arguably a more likely event for the first half of next year." Mr. Klapwijk is global head of met...
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:55 AM PDT Under the circumstances, spot gold is holding up very well amdist a stronger USD and declining equity and commodity markets. Yes, it is a risk-off day, but so far gold has preserved its dominant near-term support lines and levels, which suggests that any lull or reversal in the selling pressure, should work to the advantage of the relative technical "health" of gold.
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| Sovereign Debt, Gold and Okun's Law Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:50 AM PDT Is gold's run over? Let's look at some facts. The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programs, now tops $15.23 trillion. That's roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the U.S. economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, 2011.
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| "There’s No Place For Hope On Friday the 13th" - Rout Post-Mortem With Goldman Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:43 AM PDT It is always interesting to see how Goldman's sales deks views the day's action. All might be well in China, but Europe again is a cause for serious concern. Spain is the victim of the most intense violence – CDS trades to new all-time wides, and local banks sent nearly 5% lower. The hope might have been that once European markets closed, US equities would recoup losses. But there's no place for hope on Friday the 13th, and stocks close at the low. The post-close price action in futures was even worse as ES1 drops further still. Back below the 50d again. Perhaps spillover from weakness in European financials, but problematic as tech, the other obvious leader of the year's rally, is also flagging. SPX drops 17 to close 1370 (-1.25%). The DOW drops 137 to close 12850 (1.05%). The NASDAQ drops 44 to close 3011 (-1.45%).
The VIX up 2.35 to 19.55. With Spanish CDS trading 500 for the first time ever, no surprise that the EURO is under pressure. Perhaps surprising that the pressure wasn't more intense as the recent low still holds and vol, while picking up a bit on the day, is still very near multi-year lows. Notable weakness in MXN as well, as positioning continues to mean a bad day for risk means a very bad day for the currency. USDJPY back to its old, boring ways – 40 pip range today despite the happenings elsewhere. SGD manages to hold onto most its post-MAS gains despite a very negative day for risk assets. Continued concerns over Europe + equity sell-off = rally in Treasuries. Hard to believe we have rallied back to levels from before the breakout in rates a month ago, with 10y yields back below 2%. Flows were light on the day. Some real money buying the belly before the CPI data and leveraged buying in 5s post-data. While we saw some interest in fading the move near the highs, Treasuries still went out at the highs of the day. Metals led us broadly lower in commodities on weaker headline data from China and a USD rally overall – gold down 1.1% and silver down 2.2%. WTI down 0.8% while brent manages to finish up 0.1%. In ags: sugar down 3%, wheat down 2.2%, and corn down 1.3%. Post China GDP and ECB headlines, credit sold off with the market finding support at 100.375 for IG and 95.125 for HY; following HY dropped 0.5 with no buyers. IG closed at 102 and HY closed at 94.875.
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:41 AM PDT Something funny is happening in the mining stock world. Gold and gold stocks have been in a correction since last September and it has gone on for so long that many people are giving up on them just as it appears that this correction may be coming to an end. Just a few days ago the well respected commentator Dennis Gartman declared on CNBC that the gold bear market that began ten years ago is over. His reasoning - the recent FOMC minutes release proves that “the game has changed.”
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| Gold Escapes Bearish Channel and Heads for Weekly Gain Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:36 AM PDT U.S. DOLLAR prices to buy gold traded sideways just below $1680 an ounce during Friday morning's London session – back up at levels last seen ten days ago – while stock markets and industrial commodity prices edged lower and government bonds gained. A day earlier, gold prices jumped 1.6% during US trading – holding onto most of those gains during Friday's Asian session despite the release of lower-than-expected Chinese growth figures.
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| Arensberg – Sell a Little Gold To Buy Junior Mining Shares Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:30 AM PDT Tracy Weslosky CEO for Pro-Edge Consultants Inc. (www.pro-edge.com) interviews Gene Arensberg, Editor of the Got Gold Report (www.GotGoldReport.com | www.GotGoldBlog.com) about why it's a great time to be a "Vulture". Gene talks about what's happening in the market today and how Vultures should be handling this current market sell-off. He says when people are selling their stocks, it's a great time to be buying. Continued, click below to view the video. As a gold investor, Gene tells us he is willing sell a little gold to invest in junior resource companies because of the significant buying opportunities that currently exist. He says, "that's what you have the gold for; it's to preserve your buying power for times when it really works for you." Among the companies on Gene's Vulture Stocks bargain list are Guyana Goldfields Inc. (TSX: GUY) and Northern Tiger Resources Inc. (TSXV: NTR). He says, "we don't get many cascade sell down events like the one we've got now with a buyers' strike...you've got all sellers, no buyers and the price becomes meaningless under those conditions." He also talks about China's influence on the gold market. To gain access to Gene's investment charts and analytical notes subscribe to Got Gold Report. (Recorded Wednesday, April 11, 2012)
Source: Pro-Edge via YouTube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STWTTFEfQ1Q
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| Europe’s problems as a symptom Posted: 13 Apr 2012 09:24 AM PDT Calling Europe's problem a balance of payments problem as Martin Wolff and some others are doing is a mistake. It confuses cause with effect. BOP imbalances are the SYMPTOM. The casual variable is 'competitiveness.' It is the competitiveness differences across the Zone. The Zone has gone wrong by making itself a slave to the currency instead of to true integration. Economies in the Zone sacrifice everything to hold the euro 'peg'. It makes no sense, especially since the euro peg is now the cause of their pain as it truly is. We can engage in revisionism but we cannot run time backwards. We are where we are and the Zone cannot undo its terrible mistake. It is all but impossible to heal the rift from within. I do not see Germany relating nor do I see Mediterranean countries undergoing a generation of austerity just to keep the euro peg. I see chaos. Learning from the Euro-undoing Away from the Zone where exchange rates are flexible competitiveness problems are not such an issue, or at least, they take on a different dimension. In this environment policy options are greater. But the global system has not prospered and has built up its own set of rigidities and imbalances because surplus countries are not forced to adjust and the US, the reserve currency takes the other side of the currency value that other nations select. Some countries select a policy of export led growth and ignore their too-low exchange rate. They ride the trade surplus to prosperity. A country that is piling up forex reserves, and does not take that as a sign of an undervalued currency simply undermines the system. Its surplus takes the form of a deficit elsewhere. Fixed as in set; flexible but broken We have created systems without rules, or at least without rules that any one will obey or will be forced to obey (who would force them?) WTO does not even require market-determined exchange rates for its rules to apply. It's as mad as the e-Zone having had no real fiscal rules (Mass-trick- right). While I see lots of fingers being pointed what is clear and consistent is that we have invented systems with flaws. EMU has painted itself into a corner (or coroner?). I don't' see how it survives unless it can break apart and reform. ECB bond buying or more LTRO is just more of the junkies fix; it is not a solution but will deepen and worsen the problem. Why Free is so expensive How it actually works 'No rules' does not mean no consequences We need to go back to a rules-based system. We need cops and penalties. We don't need gold we don't need fixed exchange rates just need rules and to have them followed.
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:49 AM PDT Why Read This: To observe and think about contrary views expressed in the last few days with respect to the prospective price of physical gold. Read More...
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| Silver Miners Building for Breakout: Chris Marchese Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:43 AM PDT The Gold Report: This is an election year and everybody is waiting to see what happens with the economy between now and November. The Federal Reserve just signaled that it may be less willing to provide more stimulus. What's your reading on that? Chris Marchese: The Fed meeting minutes signaled that the members are willing to be very accommodating if gross domestic product (GDP) slows down, if it doesn't maintain a 2% inflation rate and/or unemployment starts to creep back up. Then they tried to play the metals down; they don't like high gold or silver prices because they delegitimize the dollar. I think they are doing that in preparation for the next round of quantitative easing, which in my opinion will just be an extension of Operation Twist that ends in June. TGR: So you think that's all pretty much in place, regardless of how numbers look, unless there's some drastic change? CM: Yes, real GDP is supposedly growing, but our deficits are running higher, and 21.5% of that is gover...
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| Could Gold Rise on One Country’s Meltdown? Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:30 AM PDT Gold is ending the week doing a little more backing and filling. After yesterday's run-up, the spot price has pulled back to $1,665. $2,000 looks far off in the distance. To say nothing of last September's $1,900 high. Then again, it could happen with the snap of a finger. "A push on toward $2,000 is definitely on the cards before the year is out," says Philip Klapwijk, "although a clear breach of that mark is arguably a more likely event for the first half of next year." Mr. Klapwijk is global head of metals analytics at the consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS. The catalyst for $2,000 might well be, in his estimation, Spain. A meltdown there — coupled with continuing strong demand from China — could give gold a whole new "safe haven" glow. That said, he also sees a short-term dip to the year-end 2011 level of $1,550 within a couple of months. You've been warned. "U.S. investors might sleep better at night with an allocation to gold in the face of continued negative real interest rates," says U.S. Global Investors chief and Vancouver stalwart Frank Holmes. "The chart below shows how gold has historically climbed when interest rates fell below 0%, with a 'strong correlation from 1977-84, and again recently when rates turned negative in early 2008,' according to Desjardins Capital Markets."
The blue line on the chart is the very definition of "financial repression" — interest rates held below the rate of inflation. And the red line is how you combat it. Keeping the faith with bullion is one thing. Keeping the faith with stocks has been, well, more of a challenge. The HUI index of major gold stocks has bounced off lows hit earlier this week. Cold comfort in light of the fact the index sits where it did in August 2010. Or for that matter, November 2009. "'Cheap gold stock' is a redundancy these days," says Chris Mayer, "as nearly all gold stocks look cheap. While the gold price has held steady, gold stocks have lagged it. In March, that gap was the widest it's been in the last 12 months."
"Gold stocks trade at only half of their historical multiples of the last dozen years," Chris goes on. "Yet gold miners enjoy the highest profit margins and cash flows they've had in decades." What gives? "Gold management teams are usually lame. All they want to do is take what they earn and put it back into the ground to find more gold. It doesn't matter if it makes sense to do that or not. Or maybe they blow the money on an expensive acquisition. Shareholders are often an afterthought. One way you can see this is to look at dividends paid. Only technology stocks pay out less of their earnings to shareholders." "Many analysts," adds another Vancouver favorite, Rick Rule, "myself prominently among them, were dismayed at the gold mining industries' abysmal corporate performance during the last decade." But this is starting to change. "Even as the [gold] equities prices continue to decline," says Rick, "corporate performance is increasing, and increasing dramatically. "A cursory look at producers' income statements tells a dramatic story: Earnings and cash generation, on a per share basis, are increasing in dramatic fashion. Capital expenditures are increasingly funded with internally generated cash, rather than equity issuances or debt." Some producers are even — gasp — paying a dividend. Newmont is raising its dividend as the price of gold rises. So keep the faith, Mr. Rule advises: "Recognize that markets work, but only in the longer term. If you can't handle that, find another avocation. The cure for low prices are low prices; the cure for high prices are high prices. In order to sell high, you must buy low." Dave Gonigam Could Gold Rise on One Country's Meltdown? originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Recently Agora Financial released a video titled "What is Fracking?".
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| Biggest Weekly Stock Plunge In 2012 As Financials FUBAR'd Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:28 AM PDT The heaviest weekly loss (down 2%) in the S&P 500 since mid-December and largest two-week drop since the rally began in November was dominated by losses in financials (and energy). The major financials most notably have been crushed from the start of April (MS -13%, Citi/BofA -11%, GS -8.5% since the European close on 4/2). Credit broadly underperformed on the day (after ripping to pre-NFP levels yesterday) but HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) outperformed surprisingly but this appears to be related to an equity-credit (SPY-HYG) convergence trade as HYG looks very rich now once again to its NAV. The dismal close in ES (S&P futures) on significantly heavier volume and block size. VIX pushed back above 19.5% and we worry that the violent swings that we saw in credit and equity markets this week are very reminiscent of the beginning of the chaos mid-Summer last year - and perhaps rightfully so given the European situation that is escalating. FX markets were much more active today with EURUSD breaking back under 1.31 and AUD leaking lower after gapping down on China GDP news last night. Interestingly the USD ended basically unchanged from last week's close while Gold managed to hold onto its gains for the week (+1.5% at $1655) despite drops in Silver and Copper also today (Silver and Gold retracing the spike highs from yesterday). Copper kept sliding -4.7% on the week. Treasuries slipped lower in yield from late last night exaggerated by China's news with the entire complex notably lower (5-9bps on the week) in yield and flatter as the long-end outperformed. Stocks pulled back towards CONTEXT with broad risk assets at the close today though it remains rich to Treasuries and credit on a medium-term basis. Biggest weekly drop in the S&P since mid-December...
led by financials - where the majors have been crushed so far in April (with even sacred JPM -6.5% though MS managed to double that down over 13%)...
Credit underperformed after screaming tighter yesterday - seemingly on index arbitrage (as the skew between the index price and its intrinsic value collapsed) - but today's reality checkl after checking back in with pre-NFP levels was a shocker with the best compression of the year in two-days leading to the biggest decompression today. HY notably underperformed IG credit but as is clear HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) outperformed notably post-NFP...
The apparent strength in HYG appears to have been 'technical' though as is clear from the chart below, since the month began, HYG's intrinsic value has been dropping (leading HYG down) as HY saw outflows for the time this year. HYG got a little cheap to its fair-value on Tuesday (perhaps helping exaggerate the rip tighter) but it is the disconnect between HYG (red below) and SPY (green below) - which began as the month began (orange oval) that was clear and today saw HYG outperform up to the SPY level - removing that technical. The richness of HYG relative to its fair-value now (and cheapness of HY) suggest (as the dump into the close did) that HYG has room to drop here...
Equities (orange below) tried to escape the reality of broad risk assets this week, as proxied by our CONTEXT model below (black below), but by the close had pulled back close to that reality...
And with 10Y Treasuries back under 2%, near 5 week lows, equities remains little rich here - though played catch up to bond market reality today...
Gold remains the week's outperformer post-NFP and Copper the clear loser. Today saw Gold and Silver give back their spike gains from yesterday. Oil drifted ending just under $103 and marginally lower on the week - in line with Silver...
Perhaps the most worrying is the violence of the swings this week - which are very reminiscent of the start of the chaos last summer. Most specifically, in financials, for the first time since early August, we flip-flopped from a +2 standard deviation gain to a -2 standard deviation loss day after day after day...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
In summary Everyone who shorted, shorted, bought, bought, then shorted stocks this week can now take the rest of the year off. Everyone else most likely lost money.
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| Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:22 AM PDT Adam Hamilton April 13, 2012 2207 Words Gold has been weathering some considerable selling pressure lately, which has naturally turned sentiment quite pessimistic. Bearish commentary abounds, with all kinds of predictions for further declines. But as is usually the case after any material selloff spooks traders, gold's technicals are actually very bullish today. Gold's next move will likely prove to be a major rally. Gold's latest selloff started on February 29th when the Fed Chairman's testimony before Congress convinced traders that a third round of quantitative easing is becoming less likely. Gold plummeted 5.1% on this latest in a long line of irrational QE3 scares, its biggest down day since the stock panic. Over the 6 weeks since, gold has retreated as much as 9.3% at worst (including that initial plunge). Of course gold's day-to-day price action has felt ...
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| Strange dumping of gold at Comex close, fund manager Bryan says Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:09 AM PDT 4p ET Friday, April 13, 2012 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Gold fund manager Caesar Bryan tells King World News that there was a mysterious dumping of gold contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange just minutes before today's close. "This is very odd trading on a Friday afternoon when there was no other discernible movement in other markets," Bryan says. Of course GATA's adherents may not find such an event quite as odd as Bryan does, but we're glad of his calling attention to it, gladder still for his noting that "the backdrop for gold is still very solid" and that the European financial system continues to disintegrate. A summary of Bryan's comments is posted at the King World News blog here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/4/13_Ca... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Be Part of a Chance to Discover Northaven Resources Corp. (TSX-V:NTV) is advancing five gold and silver projects in highly prospective and politically stable British Columbia, Canada. Check out the exploration program on our Allco gold/silver project : -- A large (13,000 hectare) property, covering more than 15 square kilometers of a regional mineralized trend just 3km from a recently announced 1.2-million-ounce gold and 15-million-ounce silver deposit. -- The property hosts historic high-grade silver workings and many mineral showings as well as former mines at the property's northern and southern boundaries. -- A deep-penetrating airborne geophysics survey has just been completed on the entire property and neighboring deposits and its results are eagerly awaited. To learn more about the Allco property or Northaven's other gold and silver projects, please visit: http://www.northavenresources.com Or call Northaven CEO Allen Leschert at 604-696-3600. Support GATA by purchasing DVDs of our London conference in August 2011 or our Dawson City conference in August 2006: http://www.goldrush21.com/order.html Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project. "21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast. To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here: http://www.goldenphoenix.us/company-videos.html
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| Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts Posted: 13 Apr 2012 08:07 AM PDT |
| The Rising Price of a Falling Dollar Posted: 13 Apr 2012 07:37 AM PDT Do you know why oil and prices are moving sharply higher? Some blame the oil companies, charging they are manipulating prices. Others cite US sanctions on Iran and the threat of a military encounter that would disrupt the flow of oil from the Middle East. Speculators, too are blamed for ostensibly bidding up the price of oil. In the political arena, President Obama is taking credit for increased domestic oil production even as his critics point out the slow pace of drilling permits issued by his Administration soon will hamper additional increases in the US oil production. Yet, the basic reason for higher energy prices is being overlooked, even though it is right before our eyes: Oil prices are up because the value of the dollar is down. Our common sense hides this source of higher prices because we view the dollar as fixed, and prices as moving. News reports explain the sharp rise in consumer prices in February were caused by higher energy and food prices, implying that higher prices cause inflation. Of course, higher prices do not cause inflation. Higher prices are inflation. The cost of this deception goes well beyond the vilification of the oil industry and free markets. The real price of the on-going debauchery of the dollar is measured by the loss of our prosperity and the debasement of our liberty. Neither the dollar, nor the price of individual items are fixed. Changes in the relative prices of goods and services occur because of technological change or shifts in supply or demand. The price of computers and televisions fall relative to the price of, well, just about everything. On the other hand, the freeze earlier this winter in Florida reduced the supply of oranges, leading to an increase in the price of orange juice. But, the value of the dollar also changes, usually in ways that are imperceptible over short periods of time. As a consequence, when the dollar price of gasoline rises 6% in a month, as it did in February, it appears that the price of gasoline is up, rather than the value of the dollar is down. To see more clearly how the price of the dollar has changed, it helps to view price changes over a 10 year period. Since 2002, the price of a barrel of oil has increased four-fold, to $107 last Friday from $26 in 2002. To suggest that oil companies had enough power to impose such a price increase, or that speculators are responsible for a quadrupling of the price of oil is, on its face, preposterous. Instead, the price of oil and gasoline are up because the Federal Reserve has driven the value of the dollar down. For example, if the dollar since 2002 had been as good as the:
Thanks Mr. Bernanke! Regards, Charles Kadlec The Rising Price of a Falling Dollar originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, published by Agora Financial provides over 400,000 global readers economic news, market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Recently Agora Financial released a video titled "What is Fracking?".
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In an article that is about three years overdue, "
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