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Thursday, February 16, 2012

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash

The Lesson of Half-Hearted QE

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 05:29 PM PST

Bullion Vault


Gold 20 Day Average Serving as Support

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 04:25 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com February 15, 2012 09:16 PM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT The decline from the 2/3 high and subsequent recovery may compose waves 1 and 2 of a larger bear leg. A bearish is valid against 1765.90 (daily key reversal last Friday). A drop below 1706.40 would shift focus to the January congestion zone at 1647/85. Given the signs in the FX space that the USD is vulnerable, I am not confident in a near term bearish bias. Bottom Line – flat...


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Mixed

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 04:00 PM PST

Gold climbed as much as $18.10 to $1737.20 by a little after 9AM EST before it fell all the way back to $1720.41 by a little after 2PM, but it then bounced back higher in late trade and ended with a gain of 0.59%. Silver surged to as high as $33.942 before it fell back to as low as $33.09 and then also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 0.33%.


David Morgan at the California Resource Investment Conference: “Myths in the Silver Market”

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 03:40 PM PST

[Ed. Note: All credit due to our good friend Daniel, You Tube's 'Vision Victory' for the video David Morgan plays at the beginning of this presentation.]

from KitcoNews :

We bring you David Morgan, viewer's choice on the Kitco California Resource site. This is his full presentation, "Myths and Misinformation in the Silver Market", from the Cambridge House "California Resource Investment Conference" in Palm Springs/Indian Wells.

Preparing for the Collapse of the Petrodollar System

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:45 PM PST

The collapse of the petrodollar system, which I believe will occur within this decade, will make the 1971 Nixon Shock look like a dress rehearsal.


In Advance Of A Gold Standard, A Look At Gold Stocks vs. Flows

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:41 PM PST

from ZeroHedge:

Submitted and copyright by Keith Weiner

Stocks vs. Flows

Today, people who believe that gold is money think that one should hoard gold. They seek to take possession personally. Or when they have it stored professionally, they look for a private vault outside the banking system where they can (hopefully) trust their warehouse receipt. And why shouldn't they avoid the banking system?

Its corruption was always inevitable. The advent of the central banks before World War I ensured it. The theft (in the US) of the gold of the people in 1933 cemented it, along with the dollar devaluation. The treaty at Bretton Woods in 1944, in which the world agreed to treat the US dollar as if it were gold nailed it in place. The default on the US government's gold obligations in 1971 by President Nixon set it in stone. Today, we have a corrupt central bank that centrally plans money, credit, discount, and interest.

The regime of irredeemable paper money is going to collapse. Anyone who understands it should want to get out of it, and not be a creditor to insolvent banks. This is a rational personal response to an irrational system.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Philipp Bagus On the LTRO and True Role of Central Banks

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:33 PM PST

As you know, back in December the ECB conducted a 3 year LTRO operation that drew far more interest than anticipated. The operation saw banks draw a Gross (net liquidity injection was ~210 Billion Euros) ~490 Billion Euros from the ECB (and not according to plan, turned around and parked it back at the ECB instead of buying up shitty bonds).

Bagus on the LTRO:

"If you're a Greek government you don't tax you just spend, you pay with writing paper government bonds, you give it to the bank, the bank gives you money, the bank takes the government bond goes through the ECB as collateral and receives euro's and can expand the money supply"

On the true purpose of central banks:

"You could easily solve this moral hazard by saying ok the ECB does not accept government bonds as collateral anymore. But then of course all governments would collapse...You have to think that for central banks, one of the main purposes is to finance governments, so if you stop this financing they go bankrupt immediately"

On Euro bonds, or rather, the EFSF and the blatant redistribution of wealth:

"We had this from the very beginning of the euro because there was the implicit guarantee for all government debts of the eurozone, all could issue debts that could be supported by the ecb and the stronger governments. So now we get this redistribution that existed from the beginning of the eurozone that gets more and more explicit. The euro bond would be the most obvious symbol of this redistribution" 

 

 

 

And for late night laughs, the ECB's balance sheet growth -- ze debt is not a problem.

Gold and Silver Update (and New Format Questions)

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:29 PM PST

from TFMetalsReport.com:

I hope you've enjoyed this new format today. In what was a trial run, with this post I will have begun seven new threads today for you to peruse and ponder. Five of the threads would be general, public threads in the new format. This note as well as the previous sticky would both be considered "subscriber" content. Again, please don't fear the coming subscription component of the site. I think you'll be quite pleasantly surprised at how affordable a monthly subscription will be and the added revenue will allow us to have a lot more fun. More on that soon. For now, let's update the charts.

The most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks while silver has traded as its inverse. Take a look at the chart below and you'll plainly see that Pigatha is attempting to burst from her pen. Will she succeed? Probably…but be cautious. Forex trading will rip you a new one with all of the headfakes and sudden reversals.

Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com

Greece is as Greece Does and Bob Chapman Sees Exactly What Will Happen – 02-15-2012

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:23 PM PST

from The Financial Survival Network:

Bob Chapman joined us today to address your never ending concerns about Greece and the financial tragi-comedy that seems to be stuck on hold. They're burning down banks now and they seem completely unprepared to accept the inevitable lower standard of living that's coming their way. Greece has always been a magnet for tourists and the return to the Drachna could make the country the discount travel capitol of the world. But there's much more that will need to happen before that takes place.

Bob also reviews Gold and Silver prospects, which due to the world turmoil have never looked better, or worse depending upon your perspective. Few if any countries have seen their deficits decrease in a meaningful way, so of course more debt will be issued to paper over the shortfall. And this must eventually result in more inflation and therefore higher gold and silver prices. I wouldn't bet against Bob or thousands of years of human history. It always works out this way.

Click Here to Listen to the Podcast


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

25 Signs That The Nazification Of America Is Almost Complete

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:17 PM PST

from The Economic Collapse Blog:

The United States of America is becoming more like Nazi Germany every single day. In fact, the Nazification of America is almost complete. The parallels between Nazi Germany and the United States of today are going to absolutely shock many of you. Most Americans simply have never learned what life was really like back in Nazi Germany. Under Adolf Hitler, Germany was a Big Brother totalitarian police state that ruthlessly repressed freedom and individual liberty. Under Adolf Hitler, Germany adopted socialism, dramatically increased government spending and raised taxes to astronomical levels. Under Adolf Hitler, abortion became legal in Germany, the government took over health care and Christianity was pushed out of the public schools and out of public life. To prove all of these points, I am going to use extensive quotes from two sources. Kitty Werthmann was a child living a peaceful life in Austria when Hitler took over her nation. Her eyewitness accounts about what life was like under Nazi Germany are invaluable. In addition, I will also be quoting extensively from author Bruce Walker. He is the author of a book entitled "The Swastika Against The Cross: The Nazi War On Christianity", and during his years of research he has uncovered some absolutely jaw dropping stuff. After reading the information in the rest of this article, there should be no doubt that the United States is becoming just like Nazi Germany.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

Doug Casey: Is a US-Iran War Inevitable?

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 01:14 PM PST

from CaseyResearch.com:

(Interviewed by Louis James, Editor, International Speculator)

US-Iranian saber-rattling or impending shoot-out? In his usual, candid manner, contrarian investor Doug Casey talks about why he believes it's serious this time… why the US is the greatest threat to peace today… why Iran might move towards a gold standard… and what smart investors should do.

L: Doug-sama, I've heard you say you think the US is setting Iran up to be the next fall guy in the wag-the-dog show – do you think it could really come to open warfare?

Doug: Yes, I do. It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now – two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when he fomented that invasion. It's starting to look rather serious at this point, so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future.

L: Could they really be so stupid?

Read More @ CaseyResearch.com

Harvey Organ's Daily Gold & Silver report

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 12:39 PM PST

PIMCO,Texas Teacher Reitrement Fund &Soros buys into GLD/Greek bailout no further ahead as potential delay in implementation/ Portugal


Gold and Silver Update and New Format Questions

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 12:35 PM PST

most significant development of the day is the developing breakout of the POSX. As you know, The Pig has traded in a one-point range for 3 weeks


Takeovers the Path to Golden Returns: Sascha Opel

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 12:24 PM PST

The Gold Report: It's been four years since you told The Gold Report that gold was beginning the process of re-establishing itself as money. Where are we in that process now? Sascha Opel: We are in the middle of this process. Many people and even central banks have added gold to their portfolios or balance sheets as they realized that no paper currency is 100% safe anymore. The Greek haircut has made it clear to investors that even European government bonds are not safe havens. The money went into German and U.S. bonds. But what happens in the next few years with growing debt in these countries? For me, what is still most important is unlike bank, corporate or government bonds, gold has no risk of failure. Bonds have to pay interest to the investors who take the risk to lend the money. If you own gold you are completely independent from any government or any other institution in the world. You are out of the modern financial system. You don't owe anyone anything. Since 2008 it has b...


A&G's AIG Moment Approaching: Moody's Downgrades Generali, Cuts Megainsurer Allianz Outlook To Negative

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 11:58 AM PST

For a while now we have said that the very weakest link in Europe is not the banks, not the ECB, not triggered CDS, and not even the shadow banking system (well, infinitely rehypothecated Greek bonds within a daisychain of broker-dealers, which ultimately ends up at the ECB at a negligible repo discount, that could well be the weakest link - we will have more to say about this over the weekend) but two very specific insurers: Italy's mega insurer Assecurazioni Generali, which at last check had more Greek bonds as a % of TSF than anyone else, and Europe's biggest insurer and Pimco parent, Allianz, which is filled to the gills with pretty much everything (for more on Generali, or as we like to call it by its CDS ticker ASSGEN read here, here, here, and here). Well, Moody's just gave them, and the entire European space, the evil eye, and soon the layering of margin calls upon margin calls, especially if and when Greece defaults and a third of ASSGEN's balance sheet is found to be insolvent, will make anyone who still is long CDS those two names rich. Assuming of course the Fed steps in and bails out the counterparty the CDS was purchased from.

Here is the only chart one needs to know why ASSGEN will likely not be writing life insurance on itself (source):

ASSGEN's exposure to other PIIGS is far more hair-raising:

Generali's main risk exposure to sovereign debt outside of Italy include Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. The sovereign bonds are valued at market (accounted as Available For Sale). In aggregate, Generali has €12bn of gross exposure to troubled sovereign debt (excl Italy) and €2.1bn of net exposure (post tax and policyholder participation) accounting for c.14% of TNAV. We have assumed in our analysis that Generali would be able to share the impact of any potential impairments on its sovereign and financial (eg bank) exposures with policyholders given the decline in the minimum guarantees we have seen over the past few years (avg guarantee 2.3% in 2010). In practice the actual allocation will depend on the location of the bonds, the local country profit sharing rules and the level of buffer capital available in those entities (such as the free RfB buffer in Germany).

 

The Greek exposure is €3.0bn on a gross basis (per year end 2010) and €500m after policyholder participation and tax (based on amortized cost). This accounts for 20% and 3% of 2011e tangible book value on a gross and net basis respectively. We estimate Greek bonds will be valued at an estimated c50% of par based on a 6 year duration at end of 2011 Q2 with an estimated €160m unrealized loss included in shareholders' equity after policyholder participation and tax. Should the debt rollover discussions be judged a credit event by either the rating agencies or auditors, we estimate that a €160m impairment would be realized through the P&L - assuming the haircut is in line with the market value of the bond. The overall impact on shareholders' equity would be neutral (as it is already included).

 

Only if there is an additional haircut on the sovereign exposure that shareholders' equity would be affected by additional impairments. In solvency terms, Generali includes unrealized gains and losses in its Solvency I and Solvency II calculations and the impairment of Greek debt should already be largely incorporated in our Q2  shareholders' equity assumptions. Aggregating the main sovereign credit risk exposures outside Italy we estimate this factors in an unrealized loss of €3.2bn gross and €343m net unrealized losses in shareholders' equity per end of 2011Q2 (see table below). The gap between the gross and net is material but is equivalent to 74bp of traditional life technical reserves. Substantially higher gross losses than those described below might belong more to shareholders than policyholders.

 

Overall, a write down in line with current marks on the Greek sovereign debt exposure will not have any incremental impact on the solvency ratio of the group as the debt is already included at market value. However, further swings in the value of sovereign debt, Spanish and Italian in particular will continue to affect TNAV and solvency until the situation stabilizes.

And here is ASSGEN's Tangible Common Equity ratio: 1.25x. Oops

Allianz is far more prepared for a collapse in the bond marke at 4.75

From Moody's:

Moody's Investors Service has today announced the following actions on nine European insurance groups and related entities, to reflect (i) increased financial risks stemming from their operating and investment exposure to weakened European sovereigns and banks, as well as (ii) Moody's expectations of continued weak economic growth in certain of their key markets.

 

The following rating actions were announced:

 

Rating downgrades related to investment and operating exposures in Spain and Italy:

- Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A.: Insurance Financial Strength Rating (IFSR) downgraded to A3 from A2 and remains on review for downgrade

- Mapfre Global Risks: IFSR downgraded to A2 from Aa3, negative outlook; Mapfre Asistencia : IFSR downgraded to A3 from A1, negative outlook)

- Caser S.A.: IFSR downgraded to Baa1 from A3 and placed on review for further downgrade

- Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A. and subsidiaries: IFSR downgraded to A1 from Aa3, negative outlook

- Allianz S.p.A.: IFSR downgraded to A1 from Aa3, negative outlook

 

Changes in rating outlook due to weakened economic conditions and outlook for key Euro-area markets:

- Allianz SE and subsidiaries: IFSR Aa3 affirmed, outlook changed to negative from stable

- AXA SA and subsidiaries : IFSR Aa3 affirmed, outlook changed to negative from stable; AXA Bank Europe : A2 senior debt affirmed, negative outlook

- Aviva Plc and subsidiaries: IFSR Aa3 affirmed, outlook changed to negative from stable

 

Initiation of reviews for possible downgrade of insurers affiliated with banks now subject to rating review:

- Scottish Widows Plc and Clerical Medical Plc: A1 IFSR and Baa1 hybrid securities on review for possible downgrade

- SNS Reaal N.V (Baa2 senior debts and see list below) and insurance operations (SRLEV / REAAL Schadeverzekeringen A3 IFSR): review for possible downgrade

And the two companies specifically:

ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI: IFSR of Assicurazioni Generali and subsidiaries (see list) downgraded by one notch to A1, negative outlook

 

The IFSR of Assicurazioni Generali (Generali) and subsidiaries (see list) has been downgraded by one notch to A1, negative outlook, following the downgrade of the Italian sovereign rating to A3, negative outlook. Moody's said that the downgrade of Generali reflects the insurer's direct exposure to Italian sovereign risk in terms of both investment portfolio and business profile. As at Q3 2011 Italian government bonds represented around 20% (EUR52 billion) of Generali's total fixed income portfolio, and 27% of its GWP were sourced in Italy in the first nine months of 2011.

 

Nonetheless, Moody's continues to rate Generali's IFSR two notches above the Italian sovereign rating, reflecting the insurer's broad diversification and flexible product characteristics which serve to insulate the company somewhat from stress related to the sovereign. Generali's non-Italian businesses accounted for over 70% of GWP in the first nine months of 2011 and Moody's believes that the risk sharing mechanism of the insurer's Italian life insurance products materially mitigates the exposure to Italian sovereign debt. This mechanism offers a relatively high ability to share losses with policyholders by reducing credited returns, given the current large spread between investments returns and average guarantees. For Generali's Italian operations this spread was, on average, 1.9% and 2.3% respectively on Italian traditional products with yearly and maturity guarantees.

 

Generali's negative outlook mirrors the negative outlook on Italy's government bond rating and reflects the uncertainties around the economic and financial environment in Italy. Given the negative outlook, Moody's said that the following factors could prompt a downgrade of Generali (i) a further downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating; (ii) a material deterioration of solvency and operating performance of the group; and/or (iii) a material deterioration of the financial flexibility of the group, for example if financial leverage exceeds 35% on a long-term basis.

 

- ALLIANZ SPA: IFSR downgraded to A1 from Aa3, negative outlook

 

The IFSR of Allianz S.p.A. (Allianz Italy), which is fully owned by Allianz SE, has been downgraded by one notch to A1, negative outlook following the downgrade of the Italian sovereign to A3, negative outlook. Moody's said that the downgrade of Allianz Italy reflects the insurer's direct exposure to Italian sovereign risk in terms of both investment portfolio and business profile. Italian government bonds represented around 60% of Allianz Italy's total fixed income portfolio, and 100% of its GWP were sourced in Italy in the first nine months of 2011. Nonetheless Moody's continues to rate Allianz Italy's IFSR two notches above the Italian sovereign rating reflecting the parental support of the group. Allianz Italy is the second-largest operation outside Germany for Allianz SE and consistently one of the largest contributors in terms of premiums and operating profit.

 

Allianz Italy's negative outlook mirrors both the negative outlook of Italy's A3 government bond rating and of the parent company, Allianz SE. Given the negative outlook on Allianz Italy, Moody's said that the following factors could prompt a downgrade of Allianz Italy; (i) a downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating; (ii) a downgrade of Allianz SE or a change in the status of the company within the German group; and/or (iii) a material deterioration in the stand-alone solvency, earnings, operating performance or capitalisation levels.

 

- ALLIANZ SE: Allianz SE and subsidiaries (IFSRs at Aa3 and see list) affirmed; outlook to negative from stable

 

The affirmation of Allianz's ratings (Aa3 IFSR and see ratings list) reflects the group's strong business profile, supported by an excellent geographic and business diversification, and strong financial profile, with good capitalisation, financial flexibility and excellent profitability. Moody's believes that the deterioration in sovereign credit quality has had a limited direct impact on Allianz' financial strength at this stage, given the Group's limited exposures to the most troubled countries in the Euro area.

 

Nonetheless, the change in outlook to negative from stable reflects the increased risk of deterioration in Allianz's asset quality, capital adequacy, profitability and financial flexibility given the weak economic environment evident in many of its operational markets.

 

Moody's notes that Allianz has a significant exposure to Italian government bonds (around 60% of shareholders' equity excluding minorities as of 30 September 2011). Moreover, the group maintains a high concentration risk to financial institutions more broadly (36% of the investment portfolio, excluding derivatives), especially to the German banking sector, although this includes a very high portion of covered bonds (23% of the investment portfolio). Moody's believes that the risk of deterioration in the quality of Allianz's investments has increased as evidenced by the negative outlook on Italian and other sovereign ratings, and the pressures on banks' credit quality resulting from deterioration in sovereigns' credit quality.

 

Furthermore, Allianz has material businesses within several weaker economies in the Eurozone, where the risk of deterioration in profitability is the highest. Notably, Allianz generates around 10% of its earnings and revenues from its Italian operations. Moody's added that any deterioration in profitability from these markets would add to the constraints on the group's revenues resulting from the expected low economic growth across Europe, and to the structural challenges Allianz faces in its domestic market, both in the very competitive P&C segment (Allianz reported a combined ratio of 104% in the first nine months of 2011 in Germany) and in the German life segment, with its inherent exposure to a prolonged low interest rate environment (Allianz' German life in-force guarantees were 3.3% on average at year-end 2010). Moody's notes that constrained profitability would also constrain the group's financial flexibility, through reduced fixed charge coverage.

 

Commenting on what could change the rating down, Moody's mentioned a significant deterioration of European sovereigns' credit quality, especially Italy, or some moderate deterioration coupled with a deterioration in group profitability. A permanent rise in financial leverage beyond the mid-thirties, or a deterioration in stand-alone credit fundamentals of main operating entities would also place pressures on Allianz SE's ratings.

Don't worry though, those who don't understand jack shit will tell you it is all contained. But please ask them why - and ask them why Lehman wasn't when everyone said it too was.

World has seen 'peak gold,' Embry tells King World News

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 11:58 AM PST

7:55p ET Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed today by King World News, Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, says central banks have put gold in a stranglehold while they stumble around the Greek sovereign debt problem, but no matter how that ends up, the world has already seen "peak gold" and declining production will support the price. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/2/15_Jo...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Golden Phoenix Discusses Royalty Mining Growth Strategy
on '21st Century Business' on Fox Business Network

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. has discussed its royalty mining growth strategy on the Fox Business Network program "21st Century Business" with host Jackie Bales. Golden Phoenix's director of corporate communications, Robert Ian, told how the company narrows its focus to project generation and future royalty streams. He explained why Golden Phoenix believes it's better to own joint-venture interests in several producing mines instead of full exposure to just one project.

"21st Century Business" has been airing for 15 years. Previous hosts have included Gen. Alexander Haig, Gen.l Norman Schwarzkopf, and Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger. Golden Phoenix appeared as paid programming on this broadcast.

To view the program with Golden Phoenix, please visit Golden Phoenix's Internet site here:

http://goldenphoenix.us/fox-business-network/

It Would Help if This Guy Wasn't So Fat

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 11:30 AM PST

I've been meaning to comment on this for a week or two now (ever since the ninth or tenth escalation – I've lost track – of the Greek debt crisis began last month), but, since Reuters was kind enough to provide the photo below in this story from earlier today, it seemed like a good time to offer a few thoughts on obesity and bailouts.

Of course, I know nothing about Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos in general or about what kind of a job he's been doing in trying to keep the Greek government from defaulting on its debt and plunging all the world into another Lehman-style financial market meltdown, but, in a world where perceptions are very important, it seems it would help things along a bit if the top finance official of a spendthrift nation being bailed out after years of profligacy they kept hidden from the rest of the world wasn't morbidly obese.

John Embry - Is Greece’s Situation Bad for Gold?

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 11:28 AM PST

"People say keep an eye on Greece because if they don't come up with a solution it's bad for gold. I think that's ridiculous."


Creating Criminals to Raise Revenue

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 10:04 AM PST

February 15, 2012 [LIST] [*]Cash-strapped states hook up with the "prison-industrial complex." Will your town or state throw you behind bars just to raise revenue? [*]Old news: Oil rises again after news from Iran. Untold story: U.S. admiral says carrier movement is "provocative" [*]The fund manager who shares our belief that gold is due for a rest... and Jim Nelson with ideas about how to turn the metal into income [*]Readers turn poetic... a suggested wager between Addison and Byron King... and more! [/LIST] Last year, we spent a fair amount of time exploring how you're threatened by the dire financial straits of local and state governments. Increasingly, Americans are being nickel-and-dimed by "new taxes and weird fees." These can be anything from a "wheel tax" on top of regular auto registration fees... to a "flush fee" tacked onto water and sewer bills. But this morning we contemplate something far more sinister: Your cash-strapped locality might hav...


Update on the Planned Wars Against Syria and Iran

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 09:12 AM PST

Syria to Hold Elections and Enact a New Constitution in Less than Two Weeks … Will U.S. and Its Allies Attack Anyway?

Agence France-Presse reports:

Syria's president decreed a vote this month on a new
constitution that would effectively end nearly 50 years of single party
rule, state media said, as troops reportedly stormed centres of dissent.

 

***

 

Bashar al-Assad called the ballot for February 26, in a move clearly
aimed at placating growing global outrage over the bloodshed.

Under the newly proposed charter, freedom is "a sacred right" and
"the people will govern the people" in a multi-party democratic system,
state television said.

 

***

 

The new constitution also … prohibits parties based on religion.

Assad, who in April lifted a state of emergency in force since 1963,
when his Baath Party took power, has made repeated promises of reforms
that have failed to materialise since a popular uprising erupted on
March 15.

The embattled president, who succeeded his late father Hafez in 2000,
has said the constitution would usher in a "new era" for Syria, SANA
state news agency reported.

This is what the U.S. and its allies have said that they want.

But – given that the U.S. government has been consistently planning regime change in Syria for 20 years (and dreamed of regime change for 50 years), and that the U.S., Britain, Qatar and other countries have already started a covert war in Syria – it is uncertain whether democratic elections and a new constitution can avoid a Syrian war involving the West.

 

Who Carried Out the Terrorist Car Bombings in India, Thailand and Georgia? Iran … Or Someone Else?

Car bomb attacks which occurred this week in India, Georgia and Thailand are being blamed on Iran by the U.S., Israel and their allies.

If Iran, in fact, carried out the attacks, it will provide a justification for war against Iran.

But did Iran actually carry out the attacks?

Let's put aside for a moment the fact that the U.S. and Israel support the terrorists which have assassinated several Iranian scientists (and see this).

And put aside for a moment the following facts:

  • The CIA admits
    that it hired Iranians in the 1950?s to pose as Communists and stage
    bombings in Iran in order to turn the country against its
    democratically-elected prime minister
  • American and Israeli officials admit that they have repeatedly carried out terrorism and then blamed it on Arabs (and see this)
  • Former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told the Senate that @falsely blamed on Iran to justify war against that nation"> a terrorist act might be carried out in the U.S. and falsely blamed on Iran to justify war against that nation.
  • Ron Paul has warned of a "Gulf of Tonkin type incident" in Iran
  • Ed Asner says
    that members of the elite Navy Seal team told him that the U.S. would
    carry out a false flag attack and blame it on Iran to kick-start the war
  • The war against Iran has already begun. See this, this and this

India has become one of Iran's most important trading partners, and has been increasing its ties to Iran since sanctions have been imposed by the West. Indeed, India has agreed to pay for Iranian oil with gold. See this, this , this and this.

Why would Iran carry out a terror attack on one of its most important
trading partners … one which has agreed to help help Iran escape from
sanctions?

As Finnian Cunninham writes:

What would Iran gain from such action, only grief and trouble?

 

This is especially true with regard to India and Thailand. Both Asian
countries have become major trading partners with Tehran in recent
years. India, along with China, is Iran's biggest customer for its vital
oil industry.

 

Thailand is of growing importance as a trading partner with Iran for
oil, mining, heavy industry, services, technology and agriculture
especially after both countries set up a joint business council five
years ago.

 

For Iran to carry out such attacks, as is being claimed, would be
like shooting itself in the foot, particularly because both Asian
countries have refused to join in the US-led campaign to isolate Iran
economically and diplomatically.

 

Put the other way round, it is much more in the interest of
Washington and Israel to destabilize relations between Iran and its
Asian partners. The repercussions from the blasts in India would appear
to be having that desired effect.

 

Take this Reuters reports: Up to now India has not gone along with
new financial sanctions imposed by the United States and European Union
to punish Iran over its disputed nuclear programme. Instead, New Delhi
has come up with elaborate trade and barter arrangements to pay for oil
supplies. However, the president of the All India Rice Exporters'
Association said Monday's attack on the wife of an Israeli diplomat in
the Indian capital will damage trade with Iran and may complicate
efforts to resolve an impasse over Iranian defaults on payments for rice
imports worth around $150 million. "The attack and its political
fallout have clearly vitiated the atmosphere. Traders who were already
losing money due to payment defaults will be extremely wary of
continuing their trade with buyers in Iran," Vijay Setia told Reuters.

 

So add it up. Bomb teams with proven US/Israeli assassination
expertise and methodology; target countries that are major Iranian
partners; desired effect of further isolating Iran internationally; and,
to cap it all, a long sought-after pretext for Israel to attack Iran
with America's blessing.

 

When logic and facts coincide like this, it's usually more prudent to engage in reason than to indulge in lurid claims.

Simiarly, Arshin Adib-Moghaddam writes in the Guardian:

Let's assume that sections of the military and security
apparatus in Iran are responsible for the string of bombings in Georgia,
Thailand and India. What would be the motive? The argument that Iran is retaliating for the murder of five civilian nuclear scientists in Iran is not plausible. If
Iran wanted to target Israeli interests, it has other means at its
disposal. It is hard to imagine that the Iranian government would send
Iranian operatives to friendly countries, completely equipped with
Iranian money and passports – making the case against them as obvious as
possible.

 

If the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are as professional, highly
trained and politically savvy as we have been told repeatedly by Israeli
politicians themselves, if they have successfully trained and equipped
the cadres of Hezbollah and other movements with paramilitary wings in
the region, then why would they launch such a clumsy and self-defeating
operation?

 

And why India, Georgia and Thailand, three countries that
Iran has had cordial relations with during a period when Iran is facing
increasing sanctions spearheaded by the United States? A few
days ago, India agreed a rupee-based oil and gas deal with Iran and
resisted US pressures to join the western boycott of the Iranian energy
sector. As a net importer of 12% of Iranian oil, India's total trade
with Iran amounted to $13.67bn in 2010-2011. What would be the motive for damaging relations with one of Iran's major trading partners and regional heavyweights?

 

For Iran it doesn't make sense to risk alienating India by launching
an assassination attempt in the capital of the country. Similarly, Iran
has good economic and political relations with Georgia and Thailand. Why
would the leadership in Tehran risk a major crisis with these countries
during this sensitive period when IAEA inspectors are moving in and out
of Iran to investigate the country's nuclear programme?

Keats "vote with their feet and wallets" and leave Illinois for Texas

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 09:04 AM PST

As originally published in the Illinois Review and the Wilmette Beacon. 

Illinois Review article begins:  "Former State Senator and Republican Cook County Board President candidate Roger Keats and his wife Tina are leaving Illinois to live in Texas. They bid farewell to their Illinois friends in a Wilmette Beacon article and with this letter this weekend, saying they're "voting with their feet and their wallets":

20120215-Keats

Image courtesy of Willmette Beacon. See related story by Alan P. Henry. 

GOOD BYE AND GOOD LUCK


As we leave Illinois for good, I wanted to say goodbye to my friends and wish all of you well. I am a lifelong son of the heartland and proud of it. After 60 years, I leave Illinois with a heavy heart. BUT enough is enough! The leaders of Illinois refuse to see we can't continue going in the direction we are and expect people who have options to stay here. I remember when Illinois had 25 congressmen. In 2012 we will have 18. Compared to the rest of the country we have lost 1/4rd of our population. Don't blame the weather, because I love 4 seasons.

Illinois just sold still more bonds and our credit rating is so bad we pay higher interest rates than junk bonds! Junk Bonds! Illinois is ranked 50th for fiscal policy; 47th in job creation; 1st in unfunded pension liabilities; 2nd largest budget deficit; 1st in failing schools; 1st in bonded indebtedness; highest sales tax in the nation; most judges indicted (Operations Greylord and Gambat); and 5 of our last 9 elected governors have been indicted. That is more than the other 49 states added together! Then add 32 Chicago Aldermen and (according to the Chicago Tribune) over 1000 state and municipal employees indicted. The corruption tax is a real cost of doing business. We are the butt of jokes for stand up comics.

We live in the most corrupt big city, in the most corrupt big county in the most corrupt state in America. I am sick and tired of subsidizing crooks. A day rarely passes without an article about the corruption and incompetence. Chicago even got caught rigging the tests to hire police and fire! Our Crook County CORPORATE property tax system is intentionally corrupt. The Democrat State Chairman who is also the Speaker of the Illinois House and the most senior alderman in Chicago each make well over a million dollars a year putting the fix in for their client's tax assessments.

We are moving to Texas where there is no income tax while Illinois' just went up 67%. Texas' sales tax is ½ of ours, which is the highest in the nation. Southern states are supportive of job producers, tax payers and folks who offer opportunities to their residents. Illinois shakes them down for every penny that can be extorted from them.

In The Hill Country of Texas (near Austin and San Antonio) we bought a gracious home on almost 2 acres with a swimming pool. It is new, will cost us around 40% of what our home in Wilmette just sold for and the property taxes are 1/3rd of what they are here. Crook County's property tax system is a disaster: Wilmette homes near ours sell for 50% more and their property taxes are ½ of ours. Our assessed home value was 50% higher than the sales price. The system is unfair and incompetent.

Our home value is down 40%, our property taxes are up 20% and our local schools have still another referendum on the ballot to increase taxes over 20% in one year. I could go on, but enough is enough. I feel as if we are standing on the deck of the Titanic and I can see the icebergs right in front of us. I will miss our friends a great deal. I have called Illinois home for essentially my entire life. But it is time to go where there is honest, competent and cost effective government. We have chosen to vote with our feet and our wallets. My best to all of you and Good luck!

Sources:  Wilmette Beacon http://www.wilmettebeacon.com/Articles-c-2011-03-18-218533.114133-Political-couple-leaves-legacy-in-Wilmette.html

and Illinois Review: http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/2011/03/keats-vote-with-their-feet-and-wallets-and-leave-for-texas.html#more

Comment:  Welcome to Texas, Mr. and Mrs. Keats.  We trust you will leave the "Chicago Way" where you left it.  Texans wouldn't put up with it anyway. The Hill Country is God's Country.  A great place to be alive. 

Thanks to Dennis Gartman for the story. 


John Embry - Is Greece’s Situation Bad for Gold?

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:58 AM PST

With gold and silver continuing to consolidate, today King World News interviewed John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. Embry told KWN that we have seen "peak gold." He also filled us in on what the Greek situation really means for gold: "Gold is in a bit of a stranglehold here and has been since almost the beginning of February.  It sort of coincides with this whole Greek saga where they seem to have a solution every morning and by the end of the day somebody points out another flaw.  I think this is extremely bullish for gold."


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The $2-Billion Man

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:53 AM PST

Prem Watsa is the richest, savviest guy you've never heard of. He predicted the crash of '87, the Japanese collapse of 1990 and last year's meltdown, which he parlayed into a huge payoff. Now he's gobbling up shares at rock-bottom prices. What he knows and why you should pay attention By Alec Scott

Two years ago, in April 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,000 for the first time ever. It was the culmination of six months of record highs— a whopping 38 in total. Traders were drunk on their own optimism, investors were still making unprecedented returns, and there seemed to be no end to what had been dubbed the "Energizer Bunny Economy." When it comes to investing in the stock market, groupthink often prevails, and there were plenty of cheerleaders—from analysts to economics professors to business journalists—in the unrelenting pep rally.

A few weeks after the Dow Jones record, a soft-spoken Toronto insurance and investment company executive named Prem Watsa stood before a crowd at the board of trade and delivered a buzz kill of a speech. The conference was one of the first major events hosted by the Ben Graham Centre for Value Investing at Western's Ivey School of Business, for which Watsa, an Ivey graduate, had been a lead donor. But his mood was far from celebratory—he didn't spend any time patting himself on the back. Instead, he issued a dire warning. "There's a possibility of a one-in-50- or a one-in-100-year storm coming," he said. "When the music stops, it stops very quickly."

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Volume Soars As Rally Ends

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:43 AM PST

As AAPL dominates the headlines for its dramatic 5% reversal intraday and biggest drop in over two months, perhaps it is worth pointing out that the lacking volumes have returned with a flourish. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) saw its heaviest volume since this mid-December rally began (30% above average) as our recent pontification on the messages from the credit market (along with the rhythmic periodicity of the rally's size and length) may be starting to wear on investors' risk appetites. After European credit markets accelerated to the downside today, US investment grade and high-yield credit was not buying any of the overnight rally in stock futures and moved wide of yesterday's pre-Samaras rally out of the gate. Stocks surged upwards, tracking uber-stock AAPL but as chatter of a NASDAQ rebalance sent game-theorists scrambling to migrate, AAPL's slump dragged everything down (sadly) with ES stalling at the pre-China rumor level before falling to pre-Samaras levels from yesterday's lows. A lack of rumors and no QE mention from FOMC minutes along with lackluster news from the Eurogroup did nothing to rescue the situation as EURUSD ended on its lows (-1% on the week now) and USD Strength saw carry trades dragging stocks down. Interestingly, post-FOMC Treasuries came off their best levels in the afternoon (even as stocks were tanking) but we saw Gold rallying (in the face of a stronger USD) - does make one wonder on where the safety trade is now. WTI closed near its highs of the day (over $102) and as we noted earlier Brent in EUR closed at record highs as Copper is -1.3% on the week and Silver is tracking USD -0.75% or so on the week.

The highest volume in ES since the rally began and as we point out on the chart (with the 4 same-size rectangles - click to enlarge for clarity), we seem to be approaching some kind of periodic and point-size performance break.

Readjusting the sync between credit and equity for this week we can see clearly that credit did not buy the overnight rally and indeed ended notably lower. ES stalled (dotted orange oval) at the pre-China rumor levels and then fell and boiunced mildly off the lows from yesterday (pre-Samaras). On a longer-term basis (post NFP) credit remains a nagging doubt for risk appetite.

Financials continue to behave very weakly but there is a clear divide once again between the haves and the have-nots as JPM, GS, and WFC are grouped around the financial ETF performance post Monday's open while MS, BAC, and C are all grouped notably lower (down 5-6% from Monday's open). So much for Bank of America's sell CDS protection on this sell-off as CDS continue to widen significantly (+40-50bps from week ago tights now). MS is back over 300bps, GS over 250bps, and JPM 24bps wider than its tights a week ago at 130bps (the largest relative derisker).

Post FOMC minutes (no QE??), Treasuries sold off, stocks sold off, but Gold and the USD rallied.

In FX, JPY strengthened modestly against selling pressure on most of the majoprs as USD pushed to highs of the week (+0.8% since Friday). CAD and AUD are up an equal 0.18% on the week against the USD but all eyes were on EUR today as it tried to retest 1.31 but was rejected shoretly after the Euro conference call ended.

Treasuries saw 5Y and 7Y outperform, 10Y unch and 30Y underperform on the day but broadly speaking all remain -3 to 6bps on the week.

Oil is the high-flier of the week so far in commodities at +3.38% (and over $102 for WTI). Copper is the biggest loser down 1.3% and Gold decoupled a little from Silver today as Silver dropped and Gold rallied.

Risk-off. Perhaps we will see European equities finally start to crack and catch up to European credit tonight and then the race begins for rumors and innuendo as we see large crowds and small doors in many markets currently - but we do note that ES remains well above the post-NFP print spike levels for now (even if credit is well below them).

Charts: Bloomberg

ONE of SINCLAIR’S BEST INTERVIEWS EVER REGARDING GOLD, MONETARY SYSTEMS & MORE

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:39 AM PST

Greek President (And Nazi Resistance Fighter) Lashes Out At "German Boot" For Pushing Country To The Brink

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:28 AM PST

The following extract from a Bloomberg article suggests that the German mission of getting Greece to file for bankruptcy on its own, thus removing the perception that Europe has given up on the first (of many) terminal patient, own has almost succeeded. "Greek President Karolos Papoulias slammed Germany's finance minister for recent comments about his country as stalled bailout talks stoked tensions between Greece and the northern European countries funding its rescue. "I don't accept insults to my country by Mr. Schaeuble," Papoulias, who fought in the resistance against the Nazis during World War II, said in a speech today. "I don't accept it as a Greek. Who is Mr. Schaeuble to ridicule Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finns? We always had the pride to defend not just our own freedom, not just our own country, but the freedom of all of Europe."

Papoulias's comments came as Wolfgang Schaeuble and other European officials pushed Greece to gouge more cuts out of its budget to qualify for a new bailout that would stave off an economic collapse. Schaeuble today blamed Greece's New Democracy party, the second largest, for holding up agreement on a new rescue package and his deputy, Steffen Kampeter, compared Greece to a "bottomless pit."

 

Greek politicians are expressing their frustration after European finance ministers last week rejected a Greek austerity package worth 7 percent of gross domestic product. That prompted New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras to complain that a gun was being held to the country's head. George Karatzaferis, head of Laos, the third party in the governing coalition, said the country "could do without the German boot."

Since we assume that Mr. Papoulias has had the chance to travel around Europe and to actually familiarize himself with both Netherlands and Finland, not to mention Germany whom he fought in WW2, it is safe to say his was a rhetorical question. To which a rhetorical answer may be due: "they are the ones who have been providing funding to Greece for the past two years." Granted that funding may not have gotten where it was supposed to but that is only due to two things: i) corruption and ii) stupidity on behalf of the local politicians - the same ones tasked with looking after the interests of their own people. Because nobody else will.

Seen in this light, Mr. Papoulias sacrifice to stop his €300k a year salary is a little naive and, well, too little too late.

Alas, Greece should have down what we said back in early 2010 - default, and let the chips fall where they may. In that way it would have been like Iceland, and already on the way to recovery. Instead it chose the cowardly way out, and to bend over backwards to the global banker consortium. Now it can sow what it reaps, with or without meaningless populist speeches.


John Embry: Debt saturation ensures much higher gold & silver

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:19 AM PST

Desperate people tend to do very stupid things and I can assure you that the powers that be are getting increasingly desperate.


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:15 AM PST


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Financial Terrorism

Posted: 15 Feb 2012 08:04 AM PST

years of devaluation zero interest rates & quantitative easing. only alternative to save value of your assets is to own gold & silver related assets


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