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Monday, January 9, 2012

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Could Gold ETFs Worsen A Price Decline?

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 07:16 AM PST

By Tom Lydon:

Gold exchange traded funds have played a role in the metal's historic rally, but now some are wondering whether the ETFs could speed a decline in gold prices on the way down, according to a report Monday.

"Analysts generally say it's difficult to quantify the effect of funds that hold bullion on the price of gold, but agree that the growth of their holdings has helped fuel the surge in the metal's price in recent years," The Wall Street Journal reported. "And that suggests that a drop in those holdings could contribute to a decline in the price of gold, which already is well below its recent peak."

SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD) is the largest gold ETF with assets of $65.1 billion and bullion holdings of more than 40 million ounces, or about 1,255 metric tons. Another ETF, iShares Gold Trust (NYSEArca: IAU), has $8.9 billion in assets and


Complete Story »

Protect Your Portfolio From The "Great Leveraging"

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 07:05 AM PST

By Parsimony Investment Research:

In recent weeks Europe took steps to stave off a funding crisis with the long term refinancing operation ("LTRO"). Economist and investors have been very skeptical of the strategy. While the LTRO might address short-term tightness in the credit markets and support bank lending, the long-term issues have not been addressed. The lack of workable solution from EU summits in late 2011 indicate solutions will have to come from central bankers. Due to the lack of real policy solutions to our rolling debt crisis, central bankers will continue to be forced to step in with additional liquidity measures.

Parsimony believes that the U.S. and the developed world is suffering from a debt crisis. Over the past 50 years, the U.S. has been experiencing diminishing returns from an additional dollar of debt.

click to enlarge

Source: Hinde Capital

Despite diminishing returns from additional debt policymakers and central bankers continue to leverage


Complete Story »

Gold Confiscation, a Reality? Part 2

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:27 AM PST

Analysts expect gold to hit record high in 2012

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:21 AM PST

GoldMoney’s Top 10 of 2011

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:18 AM PST

from GoldMoney.com:

GoldMoney bar of gold 2011 was another great year for gold owners across the world, with the metal appreciating by 10.2% in US dollar terms over the course of the year. As GoldMoney's James Turk notes in his most recent Analysis article for our site, this was the 11th consecutive year of gold price gains. Over the course of the last 11 years, gold has gained an average of 17.7% in dollar terms per year. Given that the central bank and government policies driving gold higher have become even more firmly entrenched in recent months, one would expect this gold price trend to continue in 2012.

Silver price trends last year were more problematic as far as bulls were concerned. Gold's "little brother" came under significant selling pressure in the latter half of the year, after briefly flirting with the $50 mark at the end of April. Growing fears about problems in the eurozone dampened industrial sentiment significantly, which hurt inflation expectations and thus dampened traders' appetite for inflation-hedges such as silver. Moreover, the collapse in the silver price in early May following the surge during the winter and early spring spooked a lot of traders and investors. Many remain reluctant to enter positions in silver futures, as indicated by the falling Open Interest in Comex silver futures over the second half of last year.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Gold vs Gold Stocks

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:17 AM PST

Gold vs Gold Stocks – Goldman Releases "2012: A Gold Odyssey? The Year Ahead…"

from ZeroHedge:

As one can glean from the title, in this comprehensive report by Goldman's Paul Hissey, the appropriately named firm deconstructs the divergence between gold stocks and spot gold in recent years, a topic covered previously yet one which still generates much confusion among investor ranks. As Goldman, which continues to be bullish on gold, says, "There is little doubt that gold stocks in general have suffered a derating; initially with the introduction of gold ETFs (free from operational risk), and more recently with the onset of global market insecurity through the second half of 2011. However, gold remains high in the top tier of our preferred commodities for 2012, simply because of the extremely uncertain macroeconomic outlook currently faced in many parts of the world. The official sector also turned net buyer of gold in 2010 for the first time since 1988, and has expanded its net purchases in 2011." And so on. Yet the irony is, as pointed out before, that synthetic paper CDO, continue to be the target of significant capital flows, despite repeated warnings that when push comes to shove, investors would be left with nothing to show for their capital (aside from interim price moves of course), as opposed to holding actual physical (which however has additional implied costs making it prohibitive for most to invest). Naturally, this is also harming gold stocks. Goldman explains. And for all those who have been requesting the global gold cash cost curve, here it is…

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

Why the Wealthy Own Gold

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:15 AM PST

by Mark Motive, GoldSeek.com:

The global economy is in turmoil. Europe is on the verge of collapse, probably taking the US down with it. As the euro-crisis worsens, we march ever closer to outright monetization of European debt by the ECB and, covertly, by the Federal Reserve. The developed world is perilously close to a monetary deluge that could make the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation look like amateur hour.

Yet, I still talk to Wall Street analysts who clearly misunderstand gold's place in a portfolio. Meanwhile, many people who are part of the world's wealthy class are hoarding gold. What do they know that others don't?

If you ask the common man in the street about investing in gold, most will give you a strange look. After all, they believe investing is about stocks, bonds, and CDs.

If you ask someone with a bit more investing knowledge, they will tell you to buy gold during inflationary periods.

Read More @ GoldSeek.com

Gold/Silver Price Ratio Getting Silly Again

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:13 AM PST

by Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada:

Arithmetic is a harsh mistress. Irrespective of how badly the banking cabal wishes to suppress the prices of gold and silver, and irrespective of how much brute force they are able to apply to the market over the short term with their (illegal) manipulations; the inexorable pull of supply and demand will inevitably overwhelm any/all such operations.

This is not the whimsical theory of some ivory-tower economist, but a simple fact of markets which has been demonstrated to us all in totally unequivocal parameters. Thus back in the "bad, old days" of manipulation – when the banksters still had large hoards of bullion to dump onto the market and crush the price – the price of silver was pushed to a 600-year low (in real dollars). What did the extreme manipulation of the silver market in the 1990's reap for the banksters? A 1,000% increase in the price of silver over the following decade.

Read More @ BullionBullsCanada.com

Bob Chapman - Silver in backwardation for a long time

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 06:05 AM PST

Bob Chapman - James Corbett Interview - Jan. 9, 2012 : the silver has been in...

[[ This is a content summary only. Visit my blog http://www.bobchapman.blogspot.com for the full Story ]]

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

the hunt is on for Islamic financier’s missing gold

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 05:17 AM PST

Euro Hits New Lows, Swiss Franc Bounces: What Does That Mean For Precious Metals and Commodities?

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 05:02 AM PST

Commodities In Characteristic Selloff

Once again at the end of 2011 we heard the voices of negation sounding the fear of the bursting of the commodities bubble.  The naysayers come out with their Cassandra calls whenever commodities go into a characteristic and salubrious selloff.  They never really learn to respect the importance of gold (GLD) and silver's (SLV) role in the long range secular multiyear ongoing rise.
We emphasized the importance of avoiding knee jerk reactions when precious metals experience healthy pullbacks.  The first week of January 2012 saw commodities (DBC) rising across the board as they return from the premature grave to which the naysayers have assigned them.
One wonders how the short sellers are enjoying this periodic resurrection in vital metals such as gold(GLD), silver(SLV), rare earths (REMX) and uraniums(URA).

Transparent Horizon Of Record Low Interest Rates
Attendant to a new rise in these vital commodities, the economic base should be prepared to receive them.  On January 24th-25th the Federal Open Market Committee will be meeting once again in Washington.  One of the areas on which they will be focusing is the travails of the U.S. Housing Market and new methods to bring down the high unemployment rate.  The Fed is promising a transparent horizon of record low interest rates to provoke the banks to lend money.
It is important that the Eurozone malaise undergo corrective measures in order to restore Europe to health.  Recently Christine Lagarde, Head of the International Monetary Fund, has expressed broad generalities toward the need of fiscal reforms.  It is hoped that Lagarde will not be a laggard in the birth of the "EuroTarp" by whatever stimuli to be applied.

Euro Hitting New Lows
The weak Euro is attracting foreign capital to purchase cheap European natural resource assets.  Our research team is looking for undervalued gold assets in the Eurozone as these countries are looking to rapidly develop mines to provide high paying jobs and growth.  The Euro has broken the 2011 lows as Merkel and Sarkozy meet to rescue the moribund Eurozone economy.
It is important that a coherent plan of attack be formulated rather than the indiscriminate printing of Euros(FXE), which we are currently witnessing.  The Euro is rapidly losing value.  This procedure of currency devaluations is counter-productive unless corrective measures are instituted such as serious spending restraints, permanent tax rate cuts and regulatory relief.  In plain language, the Europeans and the Americans can't print more dollars (UUP) without building on a base of budgetary restraint.
Recovery In Rare Earths, Uranium and Precious Metals
How does this affect our selected precious metals stocks(GDX), rare earths (REMX) and uraniums(URA)?  This week the rare earths are emerging from their  second half 2011 slumber.  It is felt that they will lead the upcoming recovery.  This week certain of the rare earths are producing impressive percentage gains as an augury of things to come.
China is playing a dual role not only for their own domestic needs but in establishing a quota system for exports to other nations.  This emphasizes the importance for the West and Japan to establish an independent role in their own destiny.  No matter what happens in the pending appeal with China at the World Trade Organization, The West has learned a valuable lesson in geopolitics as the external industrial nations recognize the importance of rare earth independence.
The uranium sector is enjoying a profitable week as well.  No other area has had to come up from taking a count so many times.  The press has obscured, misrepresented and sensationalized the true story about the role of nuclear energy(NLR) in a modern, industrial world.  The media has relegated uranium mining to the status of selling newspapers and  TV commercials.  The truth be damned.  Imagine when the true story is finally told.  Not once have the talking heads mentioned that reactors that are being built are portable, economical and safe.  The truth can not be suppressed forever.
Swiss Franc Scandal Highlights Investing In Tangible Assets
Important news is just coming over the wire.  The Swiss National Bank Chief has resigned in shame after it is revealed his wife was selling Francs (FXF) to buy U.S. Dollars (UUP) long before the central bank sold Francs to slash the value.  The Swiss franc is rising against the dollar.  One wonders how many others were involved in that trade to push the weak dollar higher?
In conclusion, our sectors and recommendations are once again emerging from their long bases.  Reiterating the long ascendance of these sectors especially in light of all the bullish forces, patience is paramount albeit painful.  We have been advising our readers that this correction in commodities would be far from terminal and that it represents a classic buying opportunity.
Stay tuned to my free newsletter by clicking here…
Disclosure: Long GLD, SLV, GDX


Gold “Still Above Bullish Three Year Level” as “Basket Case” Europe Means Germany Now Getting Paid to Borrow Money

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 04:54 AM PST

Monday 9 January 2012, 08:40 EST

Gold "Still Above Bullish Three Year Level" as "Basket Case" Europe Means Germany Now Getting Paid to Borrow Money

U.S. DOLLAR gold bullion prices touched $1623 an ounce Monday morning London time – a 1% rally from the low hit during Asian trading – before falling back slightly, while stocks, industrial commodities and major government bond prices all ticked lower.

"[Gold bullion] remains above its 3-year bullish support that now lies at $1544," says technical analyst Russell Browne at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

Prices for silver bullion rose to $29.26 per ounce – 1.9% down on last week's high – while the Euro rallied against the Dollar in early European trading but couldn't sustain momentum.

"The strength of the Dollar is playing a role in limiting appetite [for commodities]," says Nick Trevethan, Singapore-based senior commodity strategist at ANZ Bank.

"But Europe is still a basket case and investors are hoping to see more easing out of the European Central Bank at some point."

Germany successfully auctioned €3.9 billion of 6-month government bills – known as Bubills – Monday morning. However, the bid-to-cover ratio was down on the previous auction last month, falling from 3.8 to 1.8.

In addition, some of the bills were sold at negative nominal interest rates – with the average yield coming in at minus 0.0122%.

Monday's was the first auction at which bidders could bid in terms of price rather than yield.

"Through the submission of price bids with prices above 100 it is possible to submit price bids reflecting negative yields," said a Bundesbank statement issued before the auction.

In other words, some investors were this morning prepared to pay more than €100 today in order to receive €100 in June.

Elsewhere in Berlin, German chancellor Angela Merkel is set to have talks with French president Nicolas Sarkozy today on how to implement tighter budgetary rules agreed at the December 9 summit.

"It's important we do start to see some progress," says Goldman Sachs chief European economist Huw Pill, adding that the Eurozone crisis will not be fixed without "German largesse".

Banks meantime will need to take "substantial haircuts" on their holdings of Greek debt, reckons International Monetary Fund chief economist Olivier Blanchard. Representatives for the banking sector agreed to take losses of 50% as part of an agreement reached last October, but their losses "may have to be larger" Blanchard said Friday.

By contrast, the governor of Cyprus's central bank, Athanasios Orphanides – who is also a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council – has called on Eurozone leaders to abandon plans to impose private sector losses.

"It is a thoroughly inefficient way of dealing with the moral hazard issue that we are still paying for now," he wrote in Friday's Financial Times, arguing that reversing the decision would reduce financing costs for other Eurozone countries, even though it would raise them for Greece.

Officials from the European Union and IMF are due to visit Greece on Saturday. Before then, the ECB will hold its first interest rate meeting of 2012 on Thursday, while Italy and Spain hold bond auctions on Thursday and Friday.

China's money supply grew by 13.6% in the year to December – more than the consensus analysts' forecast of 12.9% – following the central bank's decision at the end of November to cut the amount of cash banks are required to hold relative to their assets, known as the reserve requirement ratio.

A note from economists at JPMorgan this morning says it expects the PBOC to announce three cuts in the reserve requirement ratio in the first six months of this year.

This prediction follows an interview given by PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan to news agency Xinhua, in which he said the PBOC needs "to be prepared for a poor external environment".
Gold volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange – which hit record highs last Wednesday – remained strong on Monday, traders report.

Chinese Lunar New Year falls on 23 January this year – the earliest since 2004, when it fell on January 2002. China's banks were last week "on the bid" to buy gold head of Lunar New Year, one trader noted last week.

In addition, last month China's authorities banned all gold exchanges with the exceptions of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Gold bullion, however, "is not cheap in local currencies in Asia," says one Singapore-based dealer, adding that his firm only saw "light buying" on Monday, although premiums over Spot Prices were up to $1.70 from $1.30 the week before.

Over in New York, the difference between the number of bullish and bearish contracts held by noncommercial gold futures and options traders on the Comex exchange – the so-called speculative net long – fell slightly the week ended last Tuesday at the equivalent of just over 422 tonnes of gold bullion, the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

The decline marks the fourth-straight week of falls in the speculative net long, taking it to its lowest level since April 2009.

"The sustained deterioration in the net position is a signal that the speculative market remains wary of gold's prospects, which might explain the failure of gold to sustain upward momentum," reckons Marc Ground, commodities strategist at Standard Bank.

The rebalancing this week of index funds that track commodity prices could weigh on gold and silver prices, according to one dealer, who reckons around $5 billion of gold bullion will be sold.

"The rebalancing is mostly but not exclusively a matter of selling the previous year's outperformers and buying the underperformers to bring the portfolio composure back in line," says a note from Saxo Bank.

Swiss National Bank head Philipp Hildebrand has resigned over the controversy surrounding his wife's purchase of US Dollars three week's before the SNB pegged the Swiss Franc to the Euro, newswires Bloomberg and Reuters reported Monday lunchtime.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Year of Dragon on Shanghai Gold Exchange Sees 2nd, 3rd Highest Volume on Record

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 02:35 AM PST

Three Terrible Lies You Need to Know About Gold

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 02:30 AM PST

The next time you hear someone in the media talking about the gold standard as though it's some kind of insane idea… listen carefully. You'll hear nothing but lies and propaganda.

Morning Outlook from the Trade Desk - 01/09/12

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 01:13 AM PST

Awfully indecisive start to the week. Funds rebalance and the fallout could be very interesting. Charts continue to alarm but the bullish "push" (some say residual euphoria) is still manifest (at least in the LBMA forecasts).

Note that the most accurate 2011 forecaster (CPM's Rohit Savant) envisions a gold top no higher than $1800 and a possible $1200 low this year. Risk/reward - you do the math.

Meanwhile, more Angela-Nicholas hand-holding and tete-a-tete rendez-vous. Everyone waiting for the 'big fix' while Greece preps for a 'disorderly default.' One trader predicts $1.20 euro. Translation for gold: let's not go there....

New reports suggest the collapse in China has begun

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 01:00 AM PST

From Save Capitalism:

Those with an eye on markets probably haven't been able to miss that the Chinese stock market is in freefall. Here is some more news that signals the problems have just started, the s*** is hitting the fan:

Contrary to its usual practice, the central bank did not release foreign exchange reserve figures along with money supply and lending data. The bank did not say when those numbers would be released...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/08/us-china-economy-idUSTRE80707Q20120108

Add to that the fact that the Fed's custodial account for Treasury holdings is seeing large outflows...

Read full article...

More on China:

Chinese stocks are about to fall off a cliff

Jim Chanos: The ratings agencies are dead wrong about China

The U.S. is at war with this nation... But most Americans have no idea

Forget the "bubble": Billionaire George Soros is jumping back into gold

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 12:48 AM PST

From Newsmax:

Legendary financier George Soros returned to buying gold in late 2011 after selling it earlier, and is due to reap the benefits later this year when Fed policies will likely weaken the dollar and send the precious metal climbing, Emerging Money reports.

In the first quarter of 2011, Soros Fund Management sold almost all its shares in the SPDR Gold Trust and the iShares Gold Trust exchange-traded funds, Bloomberg reports, citing SEC data.

Gold later fell in 2011 as the dollar resumed its safe-haven status on sentiment that the...

Read full article...

More on gold:

SocGen: What to buy now before the Fed launches QE3

A "big picture" look at gold, silver, and mining stocks now

Casey Research: It could be a great time to buy more gold and silver

Gold & Silver Beat 99.8% of Wall Street's Finest in Crisis

Posted: 09 Jan 2012 12:18 AM PST

Wondering how the top US mutual funds stack up vs. the Gold Price since 2007...?

read more

Gold & Silver Bulls to Continue Stampede

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 11:48 PM PST

from King World News:

With gold hanging around the $1,600 level and silver near $29, today King World News is pleased to share with KWN readers a piece of legendary technical analyst Louise Yamada's "Technical Perspectives" report. This information is not available to the public and we are grateful to Louise for sharing her incredible work with KWN readers globally.

Gold – Corrective Trend
by Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC ("LYA")

Continue reading @ KingWorldNews.com

Gold Price Well Supported By Middle Eastern Tension

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 11:46 PM PST

from GoldMoney.com:

Gold barsThe gold price has enjoyed a good start to the year – rising 3.2% over the course of last week. Silver has had a slightly slower start to 2012; the sooner the white metal reclaims the psychologically important $30 mark the better as far as bulls are concerned.

While silver continues to suffer at the hands of market uncertainty and the prevailing "risk-off" attitude among hedge funds, gold is being boosted by this flight from risk – linked in part to the growing tensions in the Middle East; specifically, the growing threat of war between the US and Iran. The Iranians have been threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world's traded crude oil is shipped – in response to new sanctions on its oil exports.

Yesterday, US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta insisted that any moves by the Iranians to restrict oil flows through the Strait were a "red line" issue for the US government, which would be met by a military response. Both the Iranians and the US and Israel are planning military exercises in the Persian Gulf in the coming weeks, while Tehran will also conduct military exercises along its border with Afghanistan. Ironically, a crew of Iranian fishermen were saved from Somali pirates by forces assigned to the US aircraft carrier John C Stennis on Friday. Brent crude oil is still above $112 a barrel, while WTI crude (the North American benchmark) is above $101.

Read More @ GoldMoney.com

Complex Systems

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 11:44 PM PST

Complex Systems, Dysfunctional Industries, & Catastrophic Collapse
by John Rubino, DollarCollapse.com:

Over the holidays we tempted fate by booking a multi-stage plane trip … and ended up with cancelled flights, missed connections, and blank-faced airline employees who sincerely didn't care if we spent a night or a week on the terminal floor.

While I wallowed in self pity over this loss of control, my wife noted that it's not just the airlines. Big Food, Big Pharma, and the big banks, among others, are all just as customer-unfriendly. This distracted me from my rage and I spent some time thinking about how strange it is that in a time when Apple is creating Star Trek-level gadgets that streamline and simplify their users' lives, and Amazon is making shopping almost supernaturally easy, there are huge industries that seem to go out of their way to make their customers' lives complicated and hard.

Read More @ DollarCollapse.com

Are Gold Stocks Cheap?

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 10:35 PM PST

Are Gold Stocks Cheap?

by Lila Murphy
January 04, 2012

The HUI gold index is down 12.4%, and the XAU gold/silver index down 20%. The smaller companies have sustained far worse damage, with the GDXJ (Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF) down 37.8% and the S&P TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange) Venture Composite down 38.7%. With declines like these despite rising gold prices, a rational investor might begin to wonder whether these stocks look like an absolute bargain. I present the same chart by two different analysts (NAV estimates can be quite variable due to disparate views about capital and operating costs), as well as discount rates that can range from 0-10%. However, these charts give a general idea as to the context of where we are in terms of historical valuation.

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Effectively, this suggests that on a Price to Net Asset Value (P/NAV) basis, which we believe is the best representation of value for gold and other natural resources stocks, stocks are well below the valuations we saw in 2008. Price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flow multiples are not presented here because of their inability to capture the sizeable capital costs associated with resource development and sustainment, however, those traditional metrics also point to the idea that the stocks are cheap – multiples have absolutely collapsed.

Besides what is obviously a very difficult environment for risk assets and unquestionably brutal macro, there are other more fundamental considerations at work that have contribution to this collapse in multiples paid for gold and other resources stocks. The first issue is declining grades, or, the amount of ore mined per tonne of rock. Average worldwide reserve grades have declined by 30% over the last 4 years1. There are several factors involved here. First, there simply isn't the plethora of scalable high grade projects globally – new discoveries are generally smaller and have lower grades. Therefore profitability is lower per tonne of rock mined. The second factor is that, in addition to declining head grades, producers have lowered the cutoff grade at which they mine deposits, which effectively means that due to higher gold prices, they choose to mine lower grade material instead of treating it as waste – making the cost per ton higher because more waste is treated per ounce produced. Effectively, this means an investor does not get the operating leverage they otherwise would if cutoff grades remained the same and the corporate focus was on profitable ounces versus simply just producing more ounces.

Another issue is the ever rising cost headwinds the sector has faced. There is not a line item spared in this analysis – virtually every input cost has risen globally, including steel, fuel, labor, cyanide, tires – all of these costs have risen in tandem. In fact, the global average operating cost to mine one ton of ore has doubled since the end of 2005. Successive feasibility studies for development projects have shown no sign of capital cost inflation abating. We have seen a plethora of operational disappointments this year as a result of this dynamic and investors have grown increasingly frustrated with companies who in aggregate have overpromised and underdelivered. In addition, many resource rich jurisdictions (Ghana, most recently) have heaped on higher taxes and royalties – in some cases killing the goose that laid the proverbial golden egg.

Investors must concede some fault as well. Billions of dollars have been raised in the sector over the last few years since the bottom in 2008. I can remember a time not long ago where every morning I would open my email inbox to a battery of "bought deal financings" and it seemed any company that wanted to was able to access the capital markets. Much of this capital went to finance some high quality projects, however there was also plenty of malinvestment in projects that for one reason or another, had no hope of moving forward. The industry was simply overcapitalized.

All that said, I believe there is potentially another factor at work because frankly we saw all of the cost inflation, malinvestment, and investor disappointment during the last cycle as well. Let's consider instead why investors buy resources stocks. Let's face it, it is not the best kept secret that the resources extraction industry, and particularly gold mining has not exactly been the greatest steward of capital historically so you certainly would not invest over the course of a cycle on returns on capital. Obviously investors want to participate in rising commodity prices and that is why they invest in commodity producers. And after all, what is a resources stock if not an option on the future price of the commodity in the ground? Senior producers are obviously the nearest term production and give you a call on a commodity produced today. Earlier stage exploration stocks are more of a long dated option on reserves, as it takes from 7 to 10 years for a discovery to be extracted – you are buying ounces many years in the future. I tend to think of the stocks as a synthetic forward curve of sorts, indicative of expectations of future commodity prices. Once again I will use gold to illustrate.

more here with charts:
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/fea...w?art_id=10617

Gold has chance of run at $2 500

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 09:36 PM PST

Dutch gold reserves are held abroad

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 09:34 PM PST

Gold & Silver Market Morning, January 09, 2012

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 09:00 PM PST

Silver: You Ain’t Seen Nothin’ Yet

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:54 PM PST

from gotgoldreport.com:
On the day after Christmas last year we shared with Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) our commentary on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) weekly report of the commitments of traders (COT) in COMEX silver futures for the period ending Tuesday, December 20.  A few days later,  on December 28, we shared that review with our entire readership in these pages as a holiday courtesy.   In that review we said, as simply and clearly as our command of the vocabulary can convey, that "this COT setup is about as bullish as they come."

CLICK IMAGE FOR LARGER VIEW

Since that report there have been two subsequent COT reports and the changes which have occurred and have been reported are in keeping with our view then that the positioning of the large traders of silver futures in New York:  "gives us cover to begin adding in our green target box for silver with reasonable confidence, for the first time in over a year, if only the Trading Gods will allow it."  The green box on our tracking chart is visible in this reduced version of one of our silver tracking graphs we share with Vultures.

Continue reading @ gotgoldreport.com

The “Money Supply” with a Gold Standard

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:49 PM PST

Usually you hear a couple things about the "money supply" with a gold standard. The first thing you hear is that it is determined by gold mining. The second thing you hear is that it is limited to the amount of gold held "in reserve," whatever that means. Sometimes you hear that it is determined by the "current account balance." All of this is bunk.Let's look at the United States. The U.S., during the 19th century, had the most libertarian money and banking system you could imagine. Unlike Britain, where the Bank of England had an effective monopoly on currency issuance, it was pretty much a free-for-all in the United States. Anyone could issue money. Of course, nobody would accept this money unless it had a credible link to gold. The gold link was mandated by the Constitution of 1789, and they stuck to it (with some lapses, notably during the Civil War) until 1933.The point here is that the idea of a gold standard was that the currency's value would be linked to gold. The amount of currency would expand or contract, matching demand, such that the value remained stable. The actual amount of money was a residual, the aftereffect of the mechanism which kept the value stable.

Continue reading at 24hrgold.com

Clive Maund: Silver Market Update – 1.8.11

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:28 PM PST

From Clive Maund:
A large and very bearish looking Head-and-Shoulders top appears to be completing in silver which portends a severe decline and thus a deflationary downwave. However, a factor complicating the picture in recent weeks has been the COT structure for silver and sentiment indicators, both of which look very bullish. For reasons that are set out in the parallel Gold Market update, the COT is believed to be highly deceptive at this time, and with regards to sentiment indicators, there is the scope for readings to get even worse (even more bullish) in the event of a breakdown and severe decline.

The big Head-and-Shoulders top can be clearly seen on the 2-year chart for silver. What is remarkable about this pattern is that its "neckline" or lower support line is perfectly horizontal with the price bouncing back up late in December EXACTLY from its September intraday low. This large top area appears to be complete, although action over the past couple of weeks suggests that we will see one last rally before it turns down and breaks below the support at the bottom of the pattern. It is rather hard to determine what it would take to abort its bearish implications – a break above the Right Shoulder high at about $35.70 would be a bullish development but not convincing – it is better for us to use a gold breakout above the top line of its Descending Triangle as a guide to a probable abort of the bearish patterns in both gold and silver.

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Although the longer-term charts for silver look rough, on the shorter-term 6-month chart we can see that recent action suggests that a near-term rally of sorts is likely. A small Head-and-Shoulders bottom appears to have formed above recent lows that suggests an advance perhaps as far as $33 before the price turns lower again. A possible scenario is shown on the chart. We went long shortly after the low was put in as a low risk trade with a stop beaneath the crucial support level at and above the September lows, and we will probably take modest profits on an approach to $33 should silver get that high in the near future, and depending how gold looks at the time, reverse to short.

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Read more @ CliveMaund.com

John Ing: “$3,000 Gold In 2012″

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:20 PM PST

Ing: "2012 Is the Year Gold Stocks Outperform"

From Jim Puplava and Financial Sense:
John Ing's 2012 Gold Target: $3,000 oz.

John Ing of Maison Placements Canada Inc. joins Jim to discuss the gold markets. John sees gold stocks outperforming bullion this year and believes gold will hit $3,000 oz. in 2012.

Much More @ FinancialSense.com 

The Netherlands are urged to repatriate gold reserves held overseas

Posted: 08 Jan 2012 08:19 PM PST

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