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- Walmart Faces Price Competition, Weak Risk/Reward
- Israel Englander's Top Stock Picks
- Negative feedback loop...paging Blythe... unintended consequeces of operation smash taking effect....paging Blythe...
- Why You Should Stay Away From Silver
- Coin show report- NY metro area.
- But but but...if it was liquidation why....
- The Perfect Storm In A Kondratieff Long Wave Winter
- Biggest Names Discuss Silver, Gold and the Global Economy- Follow Up Call
- Are Japanese Businesses Worth More Dead Than Alive?
- Weekly Market Movers: September 26-30
- WATCH – Stella “Holy Silver Smackdown Batman!”
- The “Five M’s” For Picking Gold Stocks
- CME raises Margin Requirements on Gold and Silver/ Global Deterioration escalates
- Coin show report - Pelham, Alabama
- THE D-WAVE BEGINS
| Walmart Faces Price Competition, Weak Risk/Reward Posted: 25 Sep 2011 06:37 AM PDT By Takeover Analyst: The largest retailer and highest revenue-generating business in history, Walmart (WMT), faces a long-term challenge competing from both sides on price competitiveness. The "dollar stores"--Dollar General (DG), Federal Dollar (FDO), 99 Cents Only Stores (NDN), Dollar Tree (DLTR), among others--have started introducing substitute products with lower prices, while Target (TGT) has continued to offer products targeting a more affluent market. Together, these competitors are eating away at Walmart's sales. Gone are the days when Dollar General, Federal Dollar, et al. can be considered the RadioShack (RSH) of general merchandise retailing. In the past, I recall stepping into one of the stores to purchase a mechanical pen that broke the next day. These companies, however, have started to reinvent themselves by stacking up on inventories and offering lower prices than Walmart on a number of goods. While they have a long way to go to be a serious concern for Walmart, Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| Israel Englander's Top Stock Picks Posted: 25 Sep 2011 06:06 AM PDT By Insider Monkey: Israel Englander has been in the fund management game a long time. He founded his Millennium Management in 1989 and has since made quite the name for himself. Today, Englander is one of the top paid fund managers and his Millennium Management has a portfolio valued at over $11 billion. Englander's strategy is to employ a team of 120 analysts to track the market for the smallest inefficiencies. To this end, Englander frequently holds thousands of positions, usually over 2,000. A large part of his success lies in the small gains he achieves through these positions. This strategy has served him well overall, but not so much on his top stock picks; these stocks lost 13.1% compared to a 11.2% loss for the SPY.
Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Sep 2011 05:34 AM PDT From Wiki: "Negative feedback occurs when the output of a system acts to oppose changes to the input of the system, with the result that the changes are attenuated. If the overall feedback of the system is negative, then the system will tend to be stable" Greetings from the Inglewood California Silver line on Friday. LOL. Inglewood! Where u at? LOL...2 hour Wait time. Please start sending in your silver line photos. This is supposed to be happening when Silver is at $500 not $30 and down 27% in 2 days. Paging Blythe!   | |||||||||||||||||
| Why You Should Stay Away From Silver Posted: 25 Sep 2011 04:11 AM PDT By BubbleBustInvesting.com: Remember last silver correction, three months ago? In just a few days, the "poor man's gold" lost close to 35 percent of its value—catching by surprise all those who believe that the heavy metal can defy gravity in the land of near free money. Then, it recovered nicely. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and Proshares Ultrashort Silver (ZSL) has rallied near their old highs—fueling the enthusiasm of traders who believe that the correction in the price of the metal was just a pause in a secular rally.
Now, the metal is heading south, again, big time. Should investors buy, sell, or stay away? Conservative investors should stay away. Aggressive investors may want to sell the metal or even get short, for two reasons:
First, the metal ' s chart broke key resistance level, $31.97 on the SLV.
Second, weak fundamentals. As we wrote in a previous piece, silver is a good short—better Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| Coin show report- NY metro area. Posted: 25 Sep 2011 03:42 AM PDT Went to the twice monthly coin show today, it usualy has around twenty to thirty tables. Today there were around fifteen. Watched a guy buy around 80 SAE's and Maples for around 35 dollars each and that was the last of them. Other dealers wanted 38 or 39 for SAE's. The few ten ounce bars and one ounce bars and coins were being sold at 34 dollars each. Dealers were in a crappy mood and not willing to sell for the new lower spot prices. Big crowd of buyers but it seemed to be mostly coin collectors. Didn't ask on any Gold prices and decided against trading Gold for Silver since nobody would trade me at the current ratio. Didn't buy anything but instead held tight to my precious FRN's. | |||||||||||||||||
| But but but...if it was liquidation why.... Posted: 25 Sep 2011 03:32 AM PDT is the OI not falling off a cliff like on April 29th? From Harvey today: "The total gold comex open interest fell by a tiny 8161 contracts despite the huge raid on Thursday. The new open interest rests at Friday night at 489,588 from Thursday's level of 497,749. The front options exercised month of September saw its OI fall from 123 to 73 for a loss of 50 contracts. We had 40 deliveries on Thursday so we finally had some minor cash settlements. The next front delivery month in gold is October and strangely the OI did not fall much, settling at 29,569 from Thursday's level of 30,297. It sure looks like some of the players here are anxious to obtain some physical metal. The next big delivery month is December and this month took the brunt of the attack on Thursday. The OI fell from 317,182 to 307,786 for a loss of close to 10,000 contracts. The estimated volume on Friday was a monstrous 320,725 which followed Thursday's confirmed volume of 298,057. The banking heroes supplied most of the non backed paper hoping to see many gold leaves fall from the tree. The total silver comex OI fell by only 768 contracts as these holders seem to be in strong hands. The new OI is a multi year low. Strange that bullion dealers and mints are running out of metal and OI which is a measure of demand is at these extreme lows. The silver comex has been nothing but a physical market for those that wish metal. The leverage is totally gone and after Monday night it will surely be gone from the silver market. The new OI rests this weekend at 110,785 falling from Thursday's level of 111,553. The front delivery month of September saw its OI fall from 228 to 213 for a loss of 15 contracts. We had 19 deliveries on Thursday so we lost zero contracts to cash settlements. The front December month saw its OI fall slightly from 73,153 to 72,255. This is a minor fall in OI considering the massive wallop the price of silver endured on Thursday. The estimated volume at the silver comex was a monster, coming in at 104,984 with our banking cartel providing the short paper. The confirmed volume on Thursday was also high at 87,399." Contrast that commentary from these figures: 1. April 29th: "The total open interest on the silver comex fell steeply by 6,132 contracts from 135,763 to 129,712. There is no doubt that the leverage for the longs suffered a bit but so did those shorts that have to pay margin requirements." 2. May 6th: "The total silver comex open interest shocked everyone with the announcement that the OI rose by 4279 contracts from 130,525 to 134,804." So here's your clue: When the OI surges, we can say that we have found a short term bottom, and that would be a good entry point. If anyone is willing to take the task and go through Harvey's archive and correlate both the front month and out months OI's to the price of silver, please throw on a excel spreadsheet and email me asap that would be fantastic. Also, to any of my Asian listeners over there in Asia land. If you have any pictures of line ups at bullion shops email me at mrsilvergoldsilver@yahoo.com please thanks. May was a speculating liquidation. This week was NOT-it was a green lights go ahead behind the closed doors of Gold diversion to kill silver. I've never seen anything more obvious. This Weeks COT is useless as it doesn't show us the latter half of the week. I would be shocked not to see a major + figure in the silver and gold commercial new shorts added. I guess we have to wait another week and find out how bad the manipulation really is. If there isnt a huge surge in commercial shorts added, I will no longer be reporting on the COT report, as this may now be a tool of the EE.  | |||||||||||||||||
| The Perfect Storm In A Kondratieff Long Wave Winter Posted: 25 Sep 2011 02:36 AM PDT By David Knox Barker: Crashing global stock markets, debt defaults, overproduction, falling prices, tumbling interest rates, global debt deleveraging, and the clear necessity for austerity are all classic long wave forces now in full tilt, producing the perfect storm in a Kondratieff long wave winter. Only long wave theory explains the economic and financial events now unfolding daily in the global economy and financial markets. You still have time to prepare for the final crisis phase and debt collapse, but don't delay. The global economy is now unequivocally in the final years of the long wave winter debt purge and what will be a sharp decline in corporate efficiency. Once this storm passes the global long wave economic reset button will be tripped, and the new global long wave spring season will begin. The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff was the first to observe and document the remar kable recurring long wave patterns in the Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| Biggest Names Discuss Silver, Gold and the Global Economy- Follow Up Call Posted: 25 Sep 2011 02:07 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||
| Are Japanese Businesses Worth More Dead Than Alive? Posted: 25 Sep 2011 01:31 AM PDT By Jacob L. Taylor: Benjamin Graham travels 79 years and 6,700 miles. Part 1: Selling Businesses for 50 Cents on the DollarIn 1932, in the midst of a more than an 80% decline in the U.S. stock market, Benjamin Graham wrote an article for Forbes magazine titled, "Is American Business Worth More Dead Than Alive?" In his 3-part series, Graham examined several important issues facing investors at the time, including market sentiment, dividend policies, and company liquidations. The following article is a humble ode to Graham's original work and includes several Japanese and U.S stock comparisons in the Grahamian tradition, which may be found in the appendix. A link to Graham's original works and brief synopses of his 3-part series are also included in the appendix.Deal of a Lifetime? Suppose you are the owner of a manufacturing company in 3 divergent business segments. Despite a world wide recession, you have shown positiveComplete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| Weekly Market Movers: September 26-30 Posted: 25 Sep 2011 01:16 AM PDT This was a week to forget for stock markets, but certainly a week to remember for dollar bulls, as the dollar returned to strength last seen 7 months ago. German Ifo Business Climate, US housing data and Unemployment are the major events this week. Here is an outlook on the upcoming market-movers. Last week Bernanke announced the $400 Billion Twist to bail out the US economy from its bad condition by buying $400 billion long term securities of 6 to 30 years and selling them in three years. The Fed believes this would encourage mortgage refinancing, drawing investors to the real estate market. Will this move help the struggling economy? It currently sent stocks, commodities and most currencies plunging against the dollar. Update: Reports claim that an "orderly default" is being planned for Greece in 6 weeks. Here is what this means for the six critical countries and the impact Complete Story » | |||||||||||||||||
| WATCH – Stella “Holy Silver Smackdown Batman!” Posted: 24 Sep 2011 09:36 PM PDT Stella foresees a lower price in silver with a target of $23.75.
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| The “Five M’s” For Picking Gold Stocks Posted: 24 Sep 2011 04:45 PM PDT Goldseek | |||||||||||||||||
| CME raises Margin Requirements on Gold and Silver/ Global Deterioration escalates Posted: 24 Sep 2011 04:34 PM PDT | |||||||||||||||||
| Coin show report - Pelham, Alabama Posted: 24 Sep 2011 11:00 AM PDT Since the dealers in my area that I normally go to did not have any silver art bars (or .999 generic silver for that matter), I decided, at the last minute, to go on a road trip to attend a coin show in Alabama. This coin show was in a place called Pelham about 10 miles(?) south of Birmingham, Alabama (about a 2 1/2-hour drive one way for me from TN). I got there about 30 minutes early and just waited in my car and listened to some music until the show started. It was a decent sized show to me IMO but not as nearly as big as the one that I went to a month ago in Dalton, Georgia. I am going to guess about 60 dealer tables was the size of this Alabama coin show. Of course my main objective was to find silver art bars and I did find 2 silver art bars that I liked and I paid $34 for the first one and $34.50 for the second one. Overall, there was very little bullion (especially silver) at this show. This was not too much of a surprise to me since gold and silver got pounded in the last 2 days. However, while I was looking for silver art bars, I did see a few prices on the very little bullion that was there and here are some prices that I saw: SAE's: Starting at $5 over spot from the prices that I saw. .999 generic silver: Not much .999 generic silver at this show but the lowest price that I saw was $34.50 Silver art bars: Not many of them available and all of them were common-minted ones. The lowest price that I paid for a silver art bar was $34.00. 1/10 GAE's: $190-$200. I also saw some 1/10 Krugerrands but I did not see a price on them. Basically that was it in terms of bullion that I saw. I did see a little bit of selling but not very much given that spot is much lower now than it was 3 days ago. After I finished looking for silver art bars, I decided to look for some gold. I was looking for 1/20th oz size gold coins but there were none to be found. Most of the other dealer tables consisted of numismatic items and non-PM related coins. Since gold and silver crashed, I suspected that most of the dealers pulled their gold and silver bullion inventory because spot gold and spot silver dropped so quickly that they did not want to sell at a loss. I do not blame them to be very honest. I do not go to many coin shows in Alabama but this was the closest coin show to me and I decided to see what I could find. Overall for me, It was an ok day. Not great but I did buy 2 silver art bars for a cheaper price and that it what mattered to me since that is my hobby. I did meet another silver art bar collector there and we talked about silver art bars for a while. I also met a dealer that also posts on another collector-oriented internet forum and we talked for a long while. Even though this coin show was a long drive from where I usually go, it is worth it because I like finding silver art bars and I just like that atmosphere that a coin show offers. Since I did not buy many silver art bars at this show, I did have some cash left over and that might be a good thing to keep some cash just in case my local dealers have more silver art bars that enter their shops. To me this proves, then even though silver is lower now, .999 generic silver of any type was non-existent within my local area. | |||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Sep 2011 10:24 AM PDT It's taken much longer than I originally expected, but we now have confirmation that gold's D-Wave decline has begun. A D-Wave decline is a normal, regression to the mean, profit-taking event that occurs when gold gets too stretched above the mean. It is not a take down by an anti-gold cartel. Anyone with a modicum of common sense can look at the long-term chart of gold and tell that this is not a manipulated market. This is just a normal secular bull market, and it is acting exactly like a normal bull market acts.  Folks, these conspiracy theories are now bordering on the insane. I even heard the other day someone blame margin increases for the drop in gold. I guess they completely forgot that we've already had two margin increases in the last two months that had virtually no effect on gold.  Every bull market in history has its share of con men and scam artists. Think Bernie Madoff, Enron, WorldCom, etc. The gold manipulation nonsense is just one of the many scams that are going to hitch a ride on this bull. Actually it's one of the oldest scams in the book. You find a bull market, make a one-way bet on rising prices, tout these "to the moon" prices to suck in subscribers lured by the reward of gigantic financial gains, and then blame an invisible cartel every time a correction occurs that you don't foresee. It's a great way of not having to take responsibility when subscribers get caught in a normal corrective decline. Needless to say I don't play those kind of games. I try to get subscribers out ahead of intermediate declines. Yes, I'm usually a little early. I have the same problem with tops that every other human being in the world has. They are virtually impossible to call in real time. Subscribers to the SMT/Gold Scents newsletter have sidestepped all of this D-Wave decline and instead have been 100% invested in the dollar index. The only asset initiating a strong trend higher. Actually there is a fundamental reason for a D-Wave decline besides just a normal regression to the mean, profit-taking event. The dollar has now moved into the aggressive stage of the rally out of the three year cycle low. Deflation is starting to take hold in the world again. In a deflation defaulting debt collapses the money supply. There is a growing shortage of dollars in the world. That's the reason why the dollar index is rocketing higher. As the value of the dollar rises during this deflation it takes less and less of them to buy an ounce of gold. You can see this same process unfolded as the dollar rallied out of the 2008 three year cycle low.  On a much shorter timescale gold is now in the timing band for a daily cycle low. My best guess is that sometime over the next 1 to 2 weeks gold will move down to tag the 200 day moving average. That will trigger short covering and a very convincing snapback rally. However it's still too early for an intermediate degree bottom. There should be one more daily cycle down into November before the D-Wave puts in its final bottom.  I suspect the next daily cycle is going to be a volatile nightmare that will chew up bulls and bears alike before a final plunge down below the 200 day moving average somewhere between $1300-$1400. As all D-Wave declines have retraced at least 50 to 60% of the previous C-wave advance that would be a minimum target for the November bottom. At that point we should see a very powerful A-wave advance triggered by the extreme oversold conditions generated at the D-Wave bottom. More in the weekend report... For the next week I am going to open a special $5 trial subscription. You will have complete access to the premium website, archives, model portfolio, etc. You can sample the premium newsletter for a week. If you decide you like the content your subscription will automatically renew on October 1 as a yearly subscription. If you decide you don't want to continue the subscription just follow the directions on the home page of the website to cancel your subscription before October 1. Click here to go to the premium website then click on the subscribe link on the right-hand side of the page. You will see the special offer at the bottom of the subscription page.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
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