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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Chris Vermeulen: Gold to Rebound to $1,775 by Year-end

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 07:05 PM PDT

A few weeks ago (August 31st)*I wrote about how gold was starting to top and that everyone should expect a very sharp drop to the low $1600 area… [and] only three days later gold topped and it has not stopped falling since. At that time [however]…gold was still building the top pattern so I could not say how long a recovering would likely take nor did I know exactly when to re-enter a long position but now that we have seen how gold arrived at my target price I can form a new forecast. Words: 1078 So says Chris*Vermeulen ([url]www.thegoldandoilguy.com[/url]) *in an article which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.* V...


Gold is Getting Fixed

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 05:36 PM PDT

Biwii


Compelling Values In Gold, Silver and Miners After Correction

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 05:15 PM PDT

The boards have been awash in a sea of red for precious metal investors.  After Operation Twist many forget the underlying reasons why the U.S. dollar (UUP) is rallying.  A few weeks ago we highlighted that Japan(FXY) and Switzerland(FXF) fired a shot heard around the world in an attempt to remain competitive in the global marketplace.  The rapid rise of the yen, a traditional safe haven currency, threatens Japan's economic survival in an increasingly competitive world arena.  This holds true for the Swiss as well.

The franc and the yen were seen as safe havens compared to the U.S. Dollar.  This interventional action into the foreign exchange markets is the third time this year that Japan has had to resort to drastic measures of buying U.S. dollars in order to devalue the yen.  The Swiss, Japanese and U.S. surprise has sent the dollar soaring.  There appears to be a coordinated effort to boost up the dollar.  This is good for the struggling European problems as the indebted PIIGS can pay off their soaring debts with cheap Euros (FXE).  Finally, a dollar counter-trend rally has occurred.

The world markets sensing international monetary fear, regards Japan and Switzerland's move as a shot across the bow.  As the world reacts to the action by the Federal Reserve's Operation Twist, there is danger of other nations creating a full blown global currency war.  Eventually the good old U.S.A. seeing the dollar rise will be forced to devalue its own currency as a rising dollar makes it difficult for the U.S. to pay back its soaring debts.

Will the Fed or European Central Bankers through a Euro TARP come riding to the rescue in time to avert further bloodshed?  Bernanke has the option of doing what he did heretofore, which is to print fiat money.  The hoped for result in the Fed action, reflects the ongoing thesis of Gold Stock Trades, that a resort to additional global quantitative easing in whatever guise will be a welcomed relief from the pain that investors are undergoing.

Operation Twist has gotten the market to ask, "May we have some more QE…please?" This is why we have heard talk of further QE's  down the road.  Are we being programmed for further accommodative actions as investors flee to the supposed safe haven of the U.S. dollar and long term debt?

Obviously the world is reacting with a loud, "No!" to Bernanke and Obama's inept ability to jumpstart a struggling economy sending the U.S. dollar and treasuries(TLT) skyrocketing and selling equities (SPY), gold (GLD), silver (SLV) and copper (JJC).  The U.S. Dollar and treasuries are in overbought territory indicating that the risk aversion panic may be reaching a peak, while commodities are reaching record oversold levels and has provided a discount sale for investors who have not yet entered the hard assets secular uptrend.

Now the Fed and the ECB will be forced to come riding to the rescue before the whole system deteriorates any further.  Nation after nation are entering the currency battles.  Is the U.S. biding its time until Europe contains its own debt crisis?

What does this all mean for GST subscribers as the global hemorrhaging continues unrelieved dragging down our mining equities and gold and silver bullion to fire-sale prices?   Do not be dismayed as we firmly believe that precious metals remain a central core holding and that the miners will catch up after the margin calls are met.  Investors are selling the good stocks with real assets, to cover the losses in their weak stocks.

It is realized that the mining equity battlefield is covered with stocks (GDX and SIL) that are technically damaged.  However, this is not the time to flee the battle when the smell of gunpowder is in the air!  This is the time to be patient, remember the underlying fundamentals and look for compelling values.

We are adamant in the signal that the marketplace is sending us.  There has been a disproportionate ratio of down stocks to up stocks.  Usually a ratio of 10 to 1 indicates an immediate turnaround.  At this point the disproportion may be setting a record.   Unless this action is forecasting dire catastrophic events, there are no places to hide.

At this point the marketplace will accept even palliative measures as long as the downward descent is halted.  We expect Bernanke and Trichet to  come up with more powerful measures.  It may not walk like QE3, or talk like QE3 but in the very least it will act like QE3 by whatever means necessary unlike the twist.

Make no mistake, what is happening today in the general market has resulted in an extremely oversold condition in mining stocks(GDX) and gold and silver bullion.  A strong rebound rally is anticipated in these areas.

One of my readers just wrote, "Jeb, is the world coming to an end?"  These words are music to my ears as they indicate the fear from which significant rallies occur in precious metals.  Stay tuned to the rally that inevitably arises from such pessimism in my daily bulletin.

Disclosure: Long GLD,SLV, GDX

Check out my recent interview discussing the selloff in gold and silver.


MUST WATCH – (I'm speechless)

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:57 PM PDT

SGTreport takes its hat off to 'Bridget', a local reporter in Calgary, for talking out of her ass about Gold. Makes me wonder, Is 'The Onion' produced in Calgary?


BBC Interview of a Real Deal from a Real Trader

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:55 PM PDT

By Lonerangersilver In investment trading houses it is very common knowledge that huge profits can be made in a market collapse. However, they don't advertise it because these huge profits come from people who loose their investment and life savings. Traders all over the world are getting ready for the tsunami that is going to [...]


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Rick Rule - Why We’re Aggressively Buying Gold, Silver & Miners

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:43 PM PDT

With continued volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed one of the most street smart pros in the resource sector, Rick Rule, Founder of Global Resource Investments, which is now part of the $10 billion strong Sprott Asset Management. When asked what he is doing with his own money and what to expect in gold and silver going forward, Rule responded, "The fact is that right now, where we are (his firm) in the market, my bigger accounts have very, very large cash positions and I am going to use this as an opportunity to diversify more of my cash into bullion or bullion related instruments."


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The Federal Reserve Plans To Identify “Key Bloggers” And Monitor Billions Of Conversations About The Fed On Facebook, Twitter...

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:40 PM PDT

This title reminded Elliott of a story about Lyndon B. Johnson: "When Lyndon Johnson ran for Congress, legend says, he wanted to spread the rumor that his opponent was a pig-f*cker. Johnson's campaign manager said, 'Lyndon, you know he doesn't do that!' Johnson replied, 'I know. I just want to make him deny it.'" (Now That's Amore)

We have forced the Fed to worry about what people are saying about it, when for generations no one asked questions. Now they'd like to get people to self-censor before they write anything negative. ~ Ilene 

The Federal Reserve Plans To Identify "Key Bloggers" And Monitor Billions Of Conversations About The Fed On Facebook, Twitter, Forums And Blogs

Courtesy of Michael Snyder of Economic Collapse 

The Federal Reserve wants to know what you are saying about it.  In fact, the Federal Reserve has announced plans to identify "key bloggers" and to monitor "billions of conversations" about the Fed on Facebook, Twitter, forums and blogs.  This is yet another sign that the alternative media is having a dramatic impact. 

As first reported on Zero Hedge, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has issued a "Request for Proposal" to suppliers who may be interested in participating in the development of a "Sentiment Analysis And Social Media Monitoring Solution".  In other words, the Federal Reserve wants to develop a highly sophisticated system that will gather everything that you and I say about the Federal Reserve on the Internet and that will analyze what our feelings about the Fed are.  Obviously, any "positive" feelings about the Fed would not be a problem.  What they really want to do is to gather information on everyone that views the Federal Reserve negatively.  It is unclear how they plan to use this information once they have it, but considering how many alternative media sources have been shut down lately, this is obviously a very troubling sign.

You can read this "Request for Proposal" right here.  Posted below are some of the key quotes from the document (in bold) with some of my own commentary in between the quotes....

"The intent is to establish a fair and equitable partnership with a market leader who will who gather data from various social media outlets and news sources and provide applicable reporting to FRBNY. This Request for Proposal ("RFP") was created in an effort to support FRBNY's Social Media Listening Platforms initiative."

A system like this is not cheap.  Apparently the Federal Reserve Bank of New York believes that gathering all of this information is very important.  In recent years, criticism of the Federal Reserve has become very intense, and most of this criticism has been coming from the Internet.  It has gotten to the point where the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has decided that it had better listen to what is being said and find out who is saying it.

"Social media listening platforms are solutions that gather data from various social media outlets and news sources.  They monitor billions of conversations and generate text analytics based on predefined criteria.  They can also determine the sentiment of a speaker or writer with respect to some topic or document."

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York intends to listen in on "billions of conversations" and to actually determine the "sentiment" of those that are participating in those conversations.

Of course it will be those conversations that are "negative" about the Federal Reserve that will be setting off the alarm bells.

"Identify and reach out to key bloggers and influencers"

Uh oh.  So they plan to "identify" key bloggers and influencers?

What exactly do they plan to do once they "identify" them?

"The solution must be able to gather data from the primary social media platforms –Facebook, Twitter, Blogs, Forums and YouTube."

Hopefully you understand this already, but nothing posted on the Internet is ever anonymous.  Everything on the Internet is gathered by a vast host of organizations and is used for a wide variety of purposes.  Data mining has become a billion dollar industry, and it is only going to keep growing.

You may think that you are "anonymous" when you criticize organizations like the Fed, but the truth is that if you are loud enough they will see it and they will make a record of it.

"The solution must provide real-time monitoring of relevant conversations.  It should provide sentiment analysis (positive, negative or neutral) around key conversational topics."

Why do they need to perform "sentiment analysis"?

If someone is identified as being overly "negative" about the Fed, what will they do about it?

"The solution should provide an alerting mechanism that automatically sends out reports or notifications based a predefined trigger."

This sounds very much like the kind of "keyword" intelligence gathering systems that are currently in use by major governments around the globe.

Very, very creepy stuff.

Are you disturbed yet?

For those of us that write about the Federal Reserve a lot, this is very sobering news.

I wonder what the Fed will think about the following articles that I have posted on this site....

*Unelected, Unaccountable, Unrepentant: The Federal Reserve Is Using Your Money To Bail Out European Commercial Banks Once Again

*Celebrating Independence Yet Enslaved To Debt

*19 Reasons Why The Federal Reserve Is At The Heart Of Our Economic Problems

*Is Ben Bernanke A Liar, A Lunatic Or Is He Just Completely And Totally Incompetent?

*10 Things That Would Be Different If The Federal Reserve Had Never Been Created

What is their "Social Media Monitoring Solution" going to think about those articles?

Unfortunately, this is all part of a very disturbing trend.

Recently, a very creepy website known as "Attack Watch" was launched to gather information on those saying "negative" things about Barack Obama.

Suddenly, everyone seems obsessed with what you and I are saying.

This just shows how the power of the alternative media is growing.

Not only that, but it seems as though the government also wants to gather as much information on all of us as possible.

For example, a new rule is being proposed by the Department of Health and Human Services that would force health insurance companies to submit detailed health care information about all of their customers to the federal government.

Every single day our privacy is being stripped away a little bit more.

But now it is often not just enough for them to know what we are doing and saying.  Instead, the "authorities" are increasingly stepping in to silence important voices.

One of the most recent examples of this was when Activistpost was taken down by Google.  We are still awaiting word on why this was done.

Sadly, the silencing of Activistpost is far from an isolated incident.

Hordes of YouTube accounts have been shut down for their political viewpoints.

Quite a few very prominent alternative media websites have been censored or attacked because of what they stand for.

So why is this happening?  Well, it turns out that the power of the alternative media is growing.  According to a new survey by the Pew Research Center for The People & The Press, 43 percent of Americans say that they get their news on national and international issues from the Internet.  Back in 1999, that figure was sitting at just 6 percent.

The American people are sick and tired of getting "canned news", and they are increasingly turning to the Internet in a search for the truth.

As I have written about previously, the mainstream media in this country is overwhelmingly dominated by just 6 very powerful corporations....

Today, ownership of the news media has been concentrated in the hands of just six incredibly powerful media corporations.  These corporate behemoths control most of what we watch, hear and read every single day.  They own television networks, cable channels, movie studios, newspapers, magazines, publishing houses, music labels and even many of our favorite websites. Sadly, most Americans don't even stop to think about who is feeding them the endless hours of news and entertainment that they constantly ingest.  Most Americans don't really seem to care about who owns the media.  But they should.  The truth is that each of us is deeply influenced by the messages that are constantly being pounded into our heads by the mainstream media.  The average American watches 153 hours of television a month.  In fact, most Americans begin to feel physically uncomfortable if they go too long without watching or listening to something.  Sadly, most Americans have become absolutely addicted to news and entertainment and the ownership of all that news and entertainment that we crave is being concentrated in fewer and fewer hands each year.

The "news" that we get from various mainstream sources seems to always be so similar.  It is as if nearly all mainstream news organizations are reading from the same script.  The American people know that they are not getting the whole truth and they have been increasingly looking to alternative sources.

The monopoly over the news that the mainstream media once possessed has been broken.  The alternative media is now creating some huge problems for organizations that were once very closely protected by the mainstream media.

The American people are starting to wake up and they are starting to get very upset about a lot of the corruption that has been going on in our society.

But it turns out that the "authorities" don't like it too much when Americans try to actually exercise free speech in America today.  For example, you can see recent video of female protesters in New York City being penned in by police and then brutally maced right here.

Are you sickened by that?

You should be.

What the "authorities" want is for us to shut up, sit in our homes and act as if nothing wrong is happening.

Meanwhile, they seem determined to watch us more closely than ever.

So are you going to be afraid to talk negatively about the Federal Reserve now that you know that they are going to be watching what you say on the Internet?

Please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts below.... 


It’s Much Worse than 2008

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:21 PM PDT

By Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com I keep hearing the so-called experts say how much better shape the banks are in now than in the last financial meltdown of 2008. To that, I say horse hooey! Any expert worth his salt knows that nothing has been fixed in the financial system. The problems were papered over with [...]


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Silver Update: “Hidden Bottoms” September 26th, 2011

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:15 PM PDT

Izabella Kaminska: How central banks use ETFs to keep gold down

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 04:06 PM PDT

12:07a ET Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market analyst Izabella Kaminska this month examined the collapse in gold lease rates and concluded that central banks likely have been trying to stuff gold into the market by various back doors, resulting in the placement of borrowed gold at exchange-traded funds like GLD and thus in gold price suppression as well.

Drawing on research by gold price suppression litigator Reginald H. Howe, Kaminska writes:

"While the likes of GLD insist that every share outstanding is matched by a gold bar -- and this is almost definitely true -- what they can't claim is that there's a way to differentiate gold with previous claims on it from gold without previous claims on it within its reserves (i.e., borrowed gold). It is consequently entirely possible that gold ETFs are sitting on mountains of borrowed central bank gold.

"GLD's defence, of course, is that prior claims on its reserves are not their concern. They are the liablity of the party that delivered the gold to GLD (almost certainly a bullion bank). Thus it is the bullion bank that risks being squeezed on delivery in the physical market, not GLD.

"Of course, with a negative interest rate for borrowing gold, the bullion banks are being more than compensated for the risk of a squeeze. On top of everything they can always create new GLD shares ad infinitum, if needs be. (At least until all central bank gold stock has been lent into gold ETFs, arguably forcing central banks to replenish the gold lending pool via market purchases.)

"In the above scenario -- in which bullion banks are possibly recycling borrowed gold into GLD shares to sell into the market -- these short sales will put pressure on GLD units themselves."

Kaminska's commentary is a bit too obscurely headlined "Why Gold Forward Rate Inversion Is Important" and you can find it at FT Alphaville here:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/14/677021/why-gold-forward-rate-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Zacks Starts Coverage of Golden Phoenix with 'Outperform' Rating

Friday, September 9, 2011

SPARKS, Nevada -- Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: GPXM) announced today that Zacks Investment Research has initiated coverage of the company with a comprehensive report giving a rating of "outperform."

The Zacks report provides information about the company's business model, its royalty mining growth strategy, recent acquisitions, drilling plans, and gold production. The report is available at the Golden Phoenix Internet site here:

http://goldenphoenix.us/pdf/GPXM_InitiationReport.pdf

Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc. is a Nevada-based mining company whose focus is royalty mining in the Americas. Golden Phoenix is committed to delivering shareholder value by identifying, acquiring, developing, and joint-venturing gold, silver, and strategic metal deposits. Golden Phoenix owns, has an interest in, or has entered agreements with respect to mineral properties in the United States, Canada, Panama, and Peru, including the company's 30 percent interest in the Mineral Ridge gold project near Silver Peak, Nevada.

Please visit the Golden Phoenix Internet site here:

http://goldenphoenix.us

For the company's full announcement of the coverage by Zacks, please visit:

http://goldenphoenix.us/press-release/zacks-investment-research-initiate...



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Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
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The More the Prices Fall, the Higher the Premiums Rise on Gold and Silver

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:37 PM PDT

by David Schectman, MilesFranklin.com:

"This week ended with the Mr. Bear tipping over the portfolio valuation of professional money managers, and individual investors, alike. He's after garbage, and there is no shortage of that in the world's financial markets. But don't blame him for the decline of gold and silver. The corrupt ways of central bankers and government regulators are responsible for that. It's now official "policy" that when financial assets are under pressure, so too must gold, silver and precious metals miners." – Mark J. Lundeen

"The smashing that silver got on Thursday and Friday was even worse than the drive-by shooting that took place on May 1st." – Ed Steer

Last week my portfolio lost around one-fourth of its value. Am I worried? Hell no, I'm mad! This is the second "drive by shooting" that gold and silver have had to endure in the last four and a half months. Let me assure you, this is nothing more than JPMorgan and their pals at CME forcing a sell-off in paper gold and silver contracts.

CME announced a huge increase in gold (21%) and silver (16%) margins AFTER the market closed on Friday, effective after the market close today (Monday). This will force more liquidation and push the prices even lower on Monday. Increase in margin is supposed to reduce market volatility. Of course, the bullion banks (you know who) know of the pending increases BEFORE they are announced and it encourages them to short the market with impunity. And when it happens during a rapidly falling market, like what we witnessed on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, it added to the beating that gold and silver took last week.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com


UBS' Euro Doom And Gloom Team Releases Sequel: “The Eurozone Sovereign Crisis Has Entered A More Dangerous Phase”

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:33 PM PDT

from ZeroHedge:

From the same fine Swiss folks who three weeks ago (and before it was uncovered that when it comes to playing, or at least scapegoating, dangerously, UBS is second to none) brought you, "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change," comes the sequel: "We believe the Eurozone sovereign crisis has entered a more dangerous phase. Financial and banking stresses are plainly evident as concerns about sovereign default grow. Notwithstanding signs from Washington this past weekend that European and world leaders are willing to consider more decisive policies, concrete steps remain elusive. Yet rising uncertainty threatens an already weakened world economy." The Swiss Bank's conclusions? "First, Europe's politicians and policy makers must do more to shore up the Eurozone and investor confidence more generally. Among others, that probably includes stronger capital buffers in the banking sector, an expanded EFSF/ESM to finance bank recapitalization and support Eurozone bond markets, and further fiscal austerity in 'at-risk' Eurozone countries. But these are big asks of Europe's 'political economy'. Hence, the second conclusion: The likelihood is that the crisis will intensify before policy can deliver what is required." Reality 1: Strange little "source" voices inside the heads of chief economists of financial comedy cable channels: 0.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com


Another Reason to Love the Juniors

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:32 PM PDT

Yes, gold got whacked last week. But that was nothing compared to what happened to the emerging gold miners. On the chart below, the green line is GLD, an ETF that tracks the gold price, and the blue line is GDXJ, an ETF that contains the shares of a representative basket of small, emerging gold miners.

Based on this divergence alone you'd be justified in either going long the juniors and short gold (on the assumption that no matter what happens the juniors should outperform gold to bring the relationship back into balance) or just buying a bunch of juniors in the expectation that gold will soar while the juniors soar even higher.

But there's another reason for loading up on juniors, courtesy of the Daily Reckoning. It seems that they have what the rest of the industry needs:

The Biggest Threat to the Gold Mining Industry

09/26/11 My friend Brent Cook is buying gold right now… But not for the reasons you'd expect.

Brent is no "doom and gloom" gold bug. He doesn't think the dollar is going to collapse any time soon.

Brent simply knows the world is running low on gold… which could drive the price of his favorite stocks much, much higher.

He has unique insight into the gold business. He's one of the best mining geologists in the world…and he spends an extraordinary amount of time visiting mines and analyzing mining data. He shares his thoughts in his Exploration Insights newsletter.

Last week, Brent told readers about the latest on a huge story happening in the gold business: Gold companies are spending enormous amounts of money to explore for gold…with little to show for it.

According to numbers from the world's largest gold miner, Barrick Gold, the entire industry is having more and more difficulty finding new gold deposits.

Here's how Brent summed up the situation…

"Current global mine production is in the order of 85 million ounces per annum, whereas…the last time the industry found that many ounces in a year was 1999.

This dearth of new discoveries is despite the significant increase in exploration spending since 2002. Particularly disconcerting (to the larger mining companies at least) is the decline in discoveries since 2006 notwithstanding exploration spending has more than doubled from $2.5 billion to over $5 billion."

The years from 1850 through 1900 were incredible for gold discovery. That's when prospectors found the giant goldfields in Australia, Canada, South Africa, Colorado, and California. However, the modern era of discovery didn't begin until the 1960s.

Geologist Forbes Wilson found the world's largest gold mine, Grasberg, in 1960 in Papua, Indonesia. Geologists John Livermore and Alan Coope discovered the largest gold producing region in the United States, Nevada's Carlin Trend, in 1965. Since then, we've scoured the planet for the "easy gold" — the stuff that sticks up out of the ground in relatively safe, functional countries.

But now, all of the "easy gold" has been found. (It's a lot like the situation in oil, which I've told you about here.) Mining and exploration companies are still finding some good deposits… They're just generally in inhospitable, remote, or downright scary places.

For example, one "top 10 in the world" deposit that I like, Seabridge Gold's KSM Deposit, is a monster gold deposit… The only problem is that it's in a far-off corner of British Columbia. To mine this deposit, the company needs to build a long tunnel…just to get the construction equipment in. I still like owning the stock. But it will take billions of dollars of capital investment to develop the deposit.

Another monster gold and copper deposit, Alaska's Pebble Deposit, is next to a pristine wildlife area. This creates just as large a hurdle as a lack of roads.

Plus… The costs of gold production (things like fuel, labor, and infrastructure) has more than doubled from 1997 to 2009. The price tag to build a new mine these days can run into billions of dollars. The mine must be able to repay that cost within a year or two and then produce a reasonable return on the investment. The huge upfront costs set the bar high in terms of the size and quality of deposits that big gold companies are willing to pursue.

This just means the highest-quality, large, undeveloped gold deposits in the world are getting increasingly valuable. As $1,500-plus gold sends a surge of profits into the coffers of big gold miners, you'll see fat premiums paid for great projects.

Mining giant Newmont paid a big premium in 2010, when it spent $2.3 billion to acquire junior explorer Fronteer Gold. One day, Fronteer was worth about $10 per share. The next day, it was worth $14. Investors doubled their money in a few weeks on that deal.

In sum…the world is running low on gold. The "easy gold" has already been found. That's why Brent is scouring the world looking for great gold projects…

Right now, he's a fan of investing in deposits in Mexico… Although you hear lots of negative "gang related" headlines from mainstream media sources, Mexico is actually a great jurisdiction for miners. And he's made good money by owning shares of Almaden Minerals, which is exploring a promising gold project called Ixtaca.

Potential deposits like that aren't easy to find… But they'll be worth hundreds of percent more in the coming years.

Some thoughts:
Gold doesn't have to soar for there to be a takeover orgy in this space. As long as the price stays high enough to make production profitable, the big miners have to get reserves from somewhere, and this is apparently the only game in town.

Juniors are always relatively cheap in terms of ounces in the ground because a lot can happen between discovery and consistent, low-cost production. But that's less of an issue during a buyout binge, since the acquiring companies will take responsibility for the transition.

The upshot is that juniors with proven, accessible deposits don't really have to do much from here on out. They can just hang around and wait for the offers to roll in. Before it's over, they'll be the dot-coms of this generation.


Turning Down the Volume of a Noisy Week

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:30 PM PDT

from WealthCycles:

At WealthCycles.com we often tell people that they should try to ignore the short-term noise caused by traders and a trigger-happy media and instead focus on the big picture—the fundamental forces that drive economies and move the world in new ways. But short-term noise is like the dripping faucet that can drive you nuts if you don't get up and figure out where it's coming from. For some people, reading the news and watching the financial media is a habit—and justifiably! Being concerned about your portfolio will be a natural extension of that.

The latest overreaction to the plunge in gold and silver prices has had people running around like crazy—wondering if the world's going to burn—and their investments along with it.

Read More @ WealthCycles.com


Looking For a Bottom (White-out Edition)

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:28 PM PDT

by Turd Ferguson, TFMetalsReport.com:

Though I've tried to swear off the short-term charts for the time being, the price action today and tonight drew me back in. Then, with the addition of a little of Mrs. F's white-out, look what I found.

Again, it's way too early to get excited. There's a lot of blood in the water so aqua-vermin are still circling. However, the charts below are just interesting enough to give us some optimism.

Longtime readers will recall that, after events of extreme and fishy volatility, I sometimes like to paint some white-out on the charts to see if it changes the look and feel of the situation. Tonight is one such time. By applying the white-out to remove the ridiculously sharp, LBMA-inspired drops of early this morning, an interesting pattern emerges on both the gold and silver charts.

Read More @ TFMetalsReport.com


Goldman Sachs Rules The World? Have You Looked At Their Stock Price Lately??

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:26 PM PDT

By EconMatters

Independent trader and professional speaker (according to the bio page on his web site) Alessio Rastani caused quite a stir this morning when he went on BBC and said the following:

".... the market would crash as it was now ruled by fear and that all the big players in the field know that the market was toast.

This is not a time right now for wishful thinking that governments are going to sort things out.  The governments don't rule the world, Goldman Sachs rules the world."

Guess working for Goldman Sachs (GS) is probably every trader's dream gig.  And Rastani does not seem to have any GS association (our Google query did not turn up much about the man at all).  So that probably explains at least in part his apparent blind idolization of Goldman Sachs.

 

Since he is supposed to be a trader, I'm not sure if he's looked at GS stock price lately.  Quite simply, if Goldman rules the world where governments around the world fail, then GS stock price should not look this ugly -- down almost 50% -- in the past 24 months:

 

Chart Source: Yahoo Finance 

 

In the same BBC interview, Rastani also said,

"Personally, I've been dreaming of this moment for three years. I go to bed every night and I dream of another recession."

Here are some of our thoughts on that:

  • He needs to get out more, and 
  • Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.  

 

The last financial crisis we had in 2008 brought all the Wall Street big banks, including Rastani's idol and God's Worker--Goldman Sachs, to the brink of total destruction (see the chart below with GS stock price dip in 2008) if not for the Fed and the bailout funded by the American taxpayers money.     .  

 

Chart Source: Yahoo Finance

 

So no, the odds are extremely good that Goldman will NOT rule the world should there be another financial crisis and crash, and U.S. taxpayers could really call it 'God's Work' if GS and other Wall Street banks would not require yet another bailout.

 

As for Rastani's advise to move money into treasuries and dollar, it is a little late for that as treasuries and US dollar have become overbought, partly from traders front running theFed's Operation Twist.  That means right now is unlikely a good time to jump into that trade.

 

On the other hand, with his the-end-of-world-crash prediction, Rastani seems to imply shorting the market would "make a lot of money from this".  However, the markets are already off roughly 25% off their highs, then amid earnings momentum in the tech sector (e.g. Apple, Amazon), and that 2012 is an election year where Washington would throw everything including the kitchen sink into the economy, we are not sure shorts would necessarily come out ahead.

 

The moral of the story is that it looks like talking gloom, doom and "market crash" on TV is the surest way to get the 4-minute fame and get quoted across mainstream media regardless of the person's credentials and/or if the statement even makes sense.

 

Last we checked, Google search on "Alessio Rastani" turned up 5,280 results in 0.08 seconds, and one related post at Zero Hedge has gotten over 77,000 hits with 666 comments in less than 12 hours.  

 

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Gold Continues to Correct as Forecast in a 4th Wave Pattern

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:26 PM PDT

by David A. Banister, MarketTrendForecast.com via Silver-Investor.com:

I got a bit of hate e-mail over the last few weeks from the Gold Bugs who thought I didn't know what I was talking about when I forecasted a multi-month consolidation and correction in Gold was imminent. I've written ad nauseum about crowd behavioral patterns as they related to both stock markets and precious metals. It should not come as a surprise that Gold is continuing to drop after a 34 Fibonacci month rally from $681 to $1910 per ounce. That rally came in five clear Elliott Waves and ended with a parabolic race to the top. I consistently warned my subscribers and readers of my articles about not being caught holding the bag and to take defensive measures.

My most recent update was to simply try to figure out whether the continuing correction in Gold would take the form of an ABC pattern or an ABCDE Triangle Pattern. It is becoming more clear that the official pattern is ABC. In English it means that the first leg down from 1910 to 1702 was the "A" Wave, the rally back up to 1920 was the "B" wave. The C wave is continuing underway and one of my longstanding targets is $1643, which is a Fibonacci fractal relationship to the prior lows and highs, and also conveniently fills in a "Gap" in the Gold chart in the 1650's.

Read More @ Silver-Investor.com


Europe is Burning / Capitulation Day in Gold and Silver

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:20 PM PDT

by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Today gold closed down $45.00 to $1592.50 Silver held up much better by falling only 12 cents. The paper price of gold and silver reacted to the increase in margin requirements by the CME. For gold, this is the 3rd increase in the last few months. In silver this is the 6th increase. In essence, the increase in margins eliminates leverage which is the name of the game in both gold/silver equities and the comex gold/silver metals. At the hearing, 4 out of 5 commissioners voiced their concerns that business would flow to other exchanges if they introduced position limits. Now these same bozos raise margin requirements are they are not concerned business will go to other physical locations? The lack of leverage will not suit investors anymore.

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.com


Harvey Organ's: The Daily Gold & Silver Report

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:08 PM PDT

Europe is Burning/Capitulation day in Gold and Silver.


Divers Set Sights on Silver-Laden WWII Ship

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 03:00 PM PDT

In 1941, a Nazi torpedo tore a hole in a British merchant ship carrying a fortune in silver to England from India.


GATA's Bill Murphy to debate CPM Group's Jeff Christian at Silver Summit

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 02:49 PM PDT

10:47p ET Monday, September 26, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Silver Summit organizer David Bond announced tonight that this year's conference, to be held Thursday and Friday, October 20-21, at the beautiful Davenport Hotel in Spokane, Washington, will include a debate between GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and CPM Group Managing Director Jeff Christian over whether the precious metals markets are manipulated. Debate moderator will be Andrew Bell of Business News Network in Canada. And Kitco.com is expected to broadcast the debate on the Internet.

But that won't be the only fun at the Silver Summit. Several GATA favorites will be among the other speakers, including Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott, GoldSeek.com and SilverSeek.com founder Peter Spina, David Morgan of the Morgan Report, and Al Korelin of the Korelin Economics Report.

You can find Bond's announcement at SilverSeek here:

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1317072886.php

And you can register for the conference there or at the link below.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Lewis E. Lehrman on How to Solve the U.S. Debt Problem

Lewis E. Lehrman, chairman of the Lehrman Institute, sponsor of The Gold Standard Now project, advises that to reduce the $1 1/2 trillion U.S. deficit, the Republican Party must initiate an investment program.

Working Americans are not saving, which enables the banks to lead the country into a cycle of debt, leverage, boom, panic, and bust.

Lehrman says: Eliminating the budget deficit of a trillion and a half dollars cannot be done overnight. The proposal by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan was very dramatic -- one Republican called it radical -- but it was not happily received. The solution, of course, is to design an American program for prosperity, because you can solve these entitlement problems with a growing economy. We need a tremendous program of investment, and investment comes from savings. When you pay savers, middle-income professionals, and working people 0 percent at the bank, you are not going to encourage them to save. Then we are left with a bank cycle of debt, leverage, boom, panic, and bust."

To read more and to sign up for The Gold Standard Now's free, noncommercial, weekly report, "Prosperity through Gold," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/gata



Perspective on the Most Recent Raid in Precious Metals

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 02:37 PM PDT

[Ed Note: My buddy Tony just sent me this. It's great perspective.]

Do not be distracted by media hype over gold's recent price correction or talk about a new gold "bubble". Instead, keep your eyes on the facts and your focus on the fundamentals.

The 10-year gold chart illustrates eight major gold price corrections in this bull market since 2003:

1. 2003 – Gold at $382 dropped to $319 (-16%)
2. 2004 – Gold at $425 dropped to $375 (-13%)
3. 2005 – Gold at $536 dropped to $489 (-9%)
4. 2006 – Gold at $725 dropped to $560 (-22%)
5. 2007 – Gold at $841 dropped to $778 (-8%)
6. 2008 – Gold hit $1002 on Mar 17 then dropped to $746 on 9-11-08 15 (-25%)
7. 2009-10 – Gold hit $1215 on Dec 7th then dropped to $1,060 on 2-4-10 (-14.6%)
8. 2010-11 – Gold hit $1,425 in Dec. 2010, then dropped to $1,315 on 1-27-11. (-8%)

Following each of the last EIGHT major corrections, gold prices have
risen an average of 36%.


Rare Opportunity to Buy Silver and Gold at Fire-Sale Rates

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 02:24 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1592.70
Change : (45.00) or -2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.929
Change : (0.131) or -0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.22
Change : -1.265 or -2.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01879
Change : 0.000436 or 2.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1562.00
Change : -48.40 or -3.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 632.00
Change : -9.10 or -1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,162.95
Change : 26.52 or 2.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $143.34
Change : $ 7.39 or 5.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.934
Change : 0.358 or 5.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 369.00
Change : 10.67 or 3.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,043.86
Change : 272.38 or 2.5%

US Dollar Index : 77.95
Change : 0.646 or 0.8%

I reckon mobs of silver and gold investors out there are chewing their fingernails down to the quick, but they could spare themselves a lot of blood loss if they'd lift up their heads and look around. 'Tain't the end of the world, let alone the end of the bull market. 'Tis a routine correction - a large one, but routine as a bull market unfolds.

Dollar index today rose through 78 and closed at 78.50. Then something happened in the aftermarket, I don't know whether it was a news item or just the herd stampeding the other way, and the dollar sank back to 77.95, which was still higher than Friday. Dollar will rise further. Euro rose to 1.3451 at close today, up 0.37%, but in aftermarket trading stands at 1.3365. Doomed. Yen rose 0.44% to 130.97 cents/Y100 (Y76.35=$1). Trying to rise.

The Tooth Fairy visited the stock market today and raised the Dow 272.38 points (2.53%) to 11,043.86. S&P500 also rose 2.33% or 26.52 points to 1,162.95. Technically looks like Thursday and Friday formed a rounding bottom, and it rose today to the 11,100 point where it broke down Wednesday. Must prove itself by crossing that barrier.

STOCKS -- Wall Street's way of harvesting Main Street.

GOLD and SILVER markets today hardly can be described. I came in and silver was at 2884, I grabbed phones and started answering and before I could cover what I'd sold SILVER had climbed 100c. Today's low came at 2604c, but about 3:00 a.m. our time. Nobody got it there. High on silver was 3078c, and after closing Comex down 13.1c at 2992.9c, it's trading in the aftermarket at 3062c. What chaps me most of all is the premium on US 90% rising, 50c/oz. at a lick at the end of the day. Back in 2008, y'all may remember, same thing happened when all forms of physical silver just disappeared.

The GOLD PRICE lost $45.00 when Comex closed, coming to rest at $1,592.70. High was 1,637.65, low (again, at 3:00 a.m.) at $1,532.45. In the aftermarket it climbed to $1,623.65.

Hogwash. It's neither normal nor sensible, but then sometimes markets aren't either.

Here's what's most occupying my mind. The gold/silver ratio as a percentage of its 20 day moving average yesterday touched 120%, highest it has ever been, far's as my file runs to 1998. Today it fell a little, to 116.8%. Generally that's a very reliable indicator, 115% at bottoms and 88 - 92% at tops.

What does that mean? That we may have seen the high in the gold/silver ratio. However, as violent as this day's trading was, I want to give SILVER and GOLD PRICES another little while to fall. I may end up eating gravel, but the rational side of my brain keeps telling me to wait just a little.

Another thing nagging at me is that the SILVER PRICE has dropped below its 300 day moving average, a rare occurrence. Now it might stay below that 300dma for two or three weeks, but crossing it almost always says, the bottom is near.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES could drop more. My rational mind and the charts tell me that. But my intuition keeps on asking where all that buying was coming from today. A 70 cent silver rise and $31 silver rise in the aftermarket is right stout, no matter how you cut it.

Gently, gently I am starting to buy. Just can't help it, I'm too nervous about silver and gold. Nervous, too, about the unfolding crisis. Of this much I am sure: you are now watching a rare opportunity to buy silver and gold at fire-sale rates.

Friday after markets closed Comex announced it was raising margins on silver and gold contracts. No doubt somebody got that news before the press release and sold in anticipation. But the stories metastisizing on the internet that this proves a conspiracy are just silly. Commodity markets are run for the benefit of the market makers, and it's not in their interest for investors to go bankrupt. They raise margins on EVERY hot market.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.


SILVER Bounces Off Massive Support At $26, Predictably, Thankfully

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:53 PM PDT

By SGT

There were some white knuckles Sunday night as readers, viewers and silver bulls in general watched the price of silver slice through $30 in overseas trading. Admittedly it wasn't pretty. Here are just a few of the many comments from readers on one of our threads and in the comments section of my latest interview which was posted late last night, during the heat of the turmoil:

OMG silver at 28.45$ , first time in three years that i am wondering: Buy the dip? or buy land?

$28.15 WOOOW… I am officially sh..ing my pants right now.

silver at 27.89$ please give me a break

looking at $27.36 a few moments ago…this is absolute insanity.

…and SILVER IS DOWN another 10% early on Monday. Silver will be below 10 bucks by the end of the week !

Blood bath.

Sure, we were all feeling some heat, plummeting 10% per day is fun for no one but those who are short. But I felt strongly that silver would catch massive buying support in the $25-$26 range. Here's what I wrote last night:

Thankfully, as predicted, silver caught some massive buying support at $26 today and bounced hard back to $30, the chart says it all; it was a vicious, sharp, beautiful bounce.

So did I pull the $25 – $26 support level out of thin air? Nope. Certianly you can see support at those levels just by looking at the one year chart, but I was focused on something more quantifiable. I have never forgotten the King World News "Source", who back on November 10, 2010 stated "Asian Buyers Have Silver Shorts Checkmated".

"They (the banks) wanted to target $25.50. If they are able to do that it will have to be achieved on a sharp, fast move down. The longer you hold the price down, the more physical you are going to give up and the lines will cross against you. The only way to get the lines to cross in your favor is a sharp move down where you quickly cover into stops from weak-handed longs. They will lose too much physical metal if they try to hold it down at those levels for an extended period of time. You have to remember, the banks are trading against their own clients, on their own books, and they know where all of the stops are. If they see a large number of stops down there, they may go and grab them like a bandit. – KWN "Source"

In subsequent interviews, the KWN source assured readers that Asian buyers would be vigorous buyers in the $25.00 – $26.00 range. For me, that has always marked an emergency level floor in the silver price. Predictably, and thankfully, $26.00 held and silver bounced back hard. So, is this horrific raid or "correction" over? It looks like it is to me. For those who were able to buy below $30, congratulations. And for those who are buying physical silver here at $30, congratulations too.

As much as I hate to quote him, Rothschild himself once said, "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."


You Want HOW MUCH for Gas?

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:49 PM PDT

by SGTreport:

The following article was published in the Jaunary 14, 1976 edition of 'The Journal', a Meriden-Southington, Conn. newspaper.

It is interesting to note that a pre-1965 silver dime is worth $2.2316 as I write this. Thus 20 "silver" cents is worth $4.46, today.

Also, as of this writing, the national average for gasoline prices is $3.51/gallon.

If we compare "apples to apples", the 1976 gasoline would have to cost $0.1574 'silver' cents to equal today's prices.

Or, if you prefer, two silver dimes, today, buys you 1.27 gallons of 2011 gasoline… 27% more gasoline than two silver dimes bought in January of 1974… And at the time, they openly asked, "Who would challenge the fact that it's the cheapest gasoline in the world?"

This is important to think about. Even though silver prices have crashed badly over the past two weeks, you can see that silver still buys much more gasoline today than it bought in January of 1976.

Of course, I don't need to tell you what happened to silver prices from Jaunary of 1976 to January of 1980.

Click Here for the original source.


Gold charts and some comments

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:31 PM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Gold breached the downside of the downtrending price channel that had been containing price action for the better part of the month of September last week. Overnight it was hit especially hard as a wave of selling across the entire commodity sector flared up as traders ran away from anything remotely resembling risk trades. That selling sent gold down nearly $100 at one point. The volume of trade was especially heavy for those particular hours. However, the selling exhausted itself as some larger buyers swooped in (very possibly Asian Central Banks) and scooped up the metal that was being discarded by the hedge fund algorithms. The recovery basically brought the market back up to its closing level from last Friday creating a potential spike bottom on the chart. If you note the first blue level of resistance drawn in on the chart that comes in just shy of the $1640 level. Gold will need to p...


Romeo and Bernanke

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:29 PM PDT

Courtesy of Allan at AllanTrends

"What's in a name? That which we call a double dip recession
By any other name would still mean a depression."

With apologies to Juliet Capulet (or William Shakespeare if you want to be a stickler), the mountains of written analysis and doctoral level economic analysis serves less as a guide then as a confusion. The markets have been falling since early summer, and there is nothing and no one in the trenches or the mansions, the streets or the guarded penthouses of Central Park South, that can stem or redirect the momentum of a market that has been set in motion until that market finds an irresistible force to change its mind. 

With such unanimity in the presence of hard down-trends across a broad sampling of sector trend models, assets of all sizes, shapes, colors, it is laughable that so much is made in naming, describing, labeling or categorizing the forces at work, or not at work, in the global economy.  It is dropping, tumbling, falling, declining, contracting and for all intents and purposes, shorting the future as far as the ides of quantitative easing can see, or reach, or contaminate.

These are not the conclusions of orthodox economic mumbo jumbo.  These are the conclusions, or more accurately, the observations and directions of lines on charts. Lines that track prices, prices that track the economy and these lines, prices and the economy have been pointed hard down since May.  Trend Following exploits the dominant trend of the market, its a traders' game of follow the leader. We want to place our bets in the direction of that trend, that is the house advantage, and its open and free to all. It is the path of least resistance and no matter what the G- (pick a number, any number) decide to do in the secrecy of their heavily guarded meetings, grumblings and manipulations. It was that television icon of the 1980?s, Martin Zweig, the father of all trend following, who summed it up in pop-tv eloquence, "The trend is your friend, not Ben."

So what are those lines on charts telling us?  Here's some recent examples. 

Volatility - VXX

Here is a VXX 120 minute chart with a set up for a Wave Five Buy Signal.  VXX trades inverse the market, so a valid Buy Signal here will send the market lower. 

VXX_120 MInute Wave Five BUY Signal

We need to see a few more bars here to confirm the viability of this set-up, remember, some of these don't work as well as others, but some are just stellar.  We should know soon enough.

Gold & Silver

First, on Gold, I don't get CNBC in Charleston, but a friend of mine told me that Cramer was "buying Gold" this morning on CNBC.  Our trend models are solidly SHORT GLD along with Glenn Neely, who said earlier today that the Gold bull market is over. Cramer vs. Neely & AllanTrends?  Place your bets.

SLV SHORT Signal on Sep 22nd

As for Silver and SLV, we got a SHORT on SLV on September 22nd. SLV closed that day at $34.92.  ZSL, the double leveraged short SLV fund, is suggesting a move to the low-to-mid 30?s.

ZSL target low-to-mid 30's

Snapshots of Trends as of the close on Sept. 26, 11

Despite today's rally, there is little doubt that the equity indexes are in SHORT trends, while volatility indexes (VIX & VXX) are in a LONG trends, and that these trends still solidly in place.

We know from experience that the market rarely goes in the same direction or with the same velocity every trading day. Days like today are a part of the game.  It brings the start of the next leg down a little closer, as there are just so many counter-trend days out there and the more we put behind us, the better the chances for the dominant trend to re-assert itself, and notwithstanding the drawdowns, it will be worth waiting for. Elliott Wave analysis suggests that the worst of it, the sharpest and steepest part of this decline, is still ahead. It will leave days like today in the dust.

Meanwhile, there are other markets where the action is fierce and in sync with the trends. Bonds (TLT) and Dollar (UUP) are LONG while Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) and Oil (USO) are SHORT.  All are generating very nice profits while we wait for the big one.  It's a good time to be trading and an even better time to be trend following.

TLT

UUP

GLD

SLV

USO

SPX

 

Learn more about AllanTrends here. (Discount for PSW and ZH readers here.)


Marc Faber: Gold Could Fall to $1,100

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 01:00 PM PDT

“We overshot on the upside when [gold] went over $1,900.We’re now close to bottoming at $1,500, and if that doesn’t hold it could bottom to between $1,100-$1,200.” So said Marc Faber (GloomBoomDoom.com) in an interview with CNBC as reported by Catherine Boyle ([url]www.cnbc.com[/url]) in an article* *which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), edited for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement. Boyle goes on to say in her article, in part, that: [INDENT]Faber,*a fund manager who has 25 percent of his portfolio in gold[B], [/B]said that the recent sell-off had come about following nervousness about industrial metals, adding that a 40 percent correction...


UBS' Euro Doom And Gloom Team Releases Sequel: "The Eurozone Sovereign Crisis Has Entered A More Dangerous Phase"

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 11:39 AM PDT

From the same fine Swiss folks who three weeks ago (and before it was uncovered that when it comes to playing, or at least scapegoating, dangerously, UBS is second to none) brought you, "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change," comes the sequel: "We believe the Eurozone sovereign crisis has entered a more dangerous phase. Financial and banking stresses are plainly evident as concerns about sovereign default grow. Notwithstanding signs from Washington this past weekend that European and world leaders are willing to consider more decisive policies, concrete steps remain elusive. Yet rising uncertainty threatens an already weakened world economy." The Swiss Bank's conclusions? "First, Europe's politicians and policy makers must do more to shore up the Eurozone and investor confidence more generally. Among others, that probably includes stronger capital buffers in the banking sector, an expanded EFSF/ESM to finance bank recapitalization and support Eurozone bond markets, and further fiscal austerity in 'at-risk' Eurozone countries. But these are big asks of Europe's 'political economy'. Hence, the second conclusion: The likelihood is that the crisis will intensify before policy can deliver what is required." Reality 1: Strange little "source" voices inside the heads of chief economists of financial comedy cable channels: 0. 

And let's cut right down to the case, or in this case the section UBS titles, "Risk Scenarios":

Risk case 1: Disorderly default

 

It may be, however, that compromise between the 'troika' and the Greek government becomes at some point impossible. That could occur if the Greek government (and broader socio-political backdrop) is unable to deliver compliance with the IMF program of fiscal austerity, structural adjustment and privatization.

 

This risk scenario could then unfold with a unilateral Greek default, which if not adequately anticipated and provisioned in the form of capital buffers in the financial sector, would lead to the default and collapse of much of the Greek banking system (given its extensive holdings of Greek government debt), which would then spread via counterparty default to the non-financial corporate and household sector in Greece, as well as to the financial counterparties elsewhere, above all in European banks, pension funds and insurance companies. Plausibly, rising risk premiums would also lead to rising bond yields and widening spreads in the government debt markets elsewhere in the Eurozone, above all in Italy and Spain. Selling pressures could easily overwhelm the modest buying-power of the EFSF (assuming its mandate to buy bonds has been approved) and could even challenge the ability or willingness of the ECB to engage in very large- scale bond purchases.

 

The resulting rise in risk premiums would depress economic activity, quite possibly pushing weakly-growing economies such as Italy's into recession, exacerbating sovereign credit risk perceptions. Financial stress and heightened uncertainty would almost surely be transmitted globally, dealing another shock to the already-fragile and wobbly US recovery. Indeed, we believe it would not be an overstatement to consider disorderly Eurozone sovereign default as the chief risk to global recovery.

 

Risk 2: Eurozone exit

In a recent paper "Euro breakup – the Consequences" we demonstrated how complex and costly expensive breaking up the Eurozone would be. The worst case scenario would be the exit of a weak country, such as Greece. Less costly, but still very expensive, would be the case of a strong country leaving the Eurozone. The 'direct' costs include sharp increases in risk premiums and large moves in exchange rates, which would likely result in recessions everywhere, compounded by very high inflation in weak countries that exit and issue their own currency.

 

But the costs extend to widespread financial stress and default. Currency mismatches between assets and liabilities could lead to very large private sector defaults. Beyond that, it would be difficult, in our opinion, to contain financial risks, including bank runs in other 'at risk' countries. The ensuing dislocations in economic and financial terms could even result in severe social unrest and pressures on the political fabric of the EU itself.

 

Elsewhere we have detailed the potential costs of Eurozone exit, either by a weak or strong country departure. We will not repeat those scenarios or calculations here—the interested reader is referred to the publications at the end of this document. However, suffice it to say, that exit represents in all likelihood the most adverse development of all, with output losses for affected Eurozone countries ranging from 20-40% of GDP (if not higher), accompanied by widespread bankruptcy and financial dislocation.

 

Yet that does not mean that exit can be ruled out. In the scenario of a disorderly sovereign default outlined above, political pressure might well result in exit, particularly if the defaulted government had little prospect of receiving financial assistance from the EU, ECB or IMF.

 

Needless to say, however, the broad market implications of disorderly default and exit only differ by degree. In either case, surging risk premiums and falling output would lead to declines in equity prices, widening credit spreads and financial market dislocations on par with those of the immediate post-Lehman brothers market melt-down. The refuges of risk-averse investors would most likely include the usual suspects: cash, the US dollar, Swiss franc and gold.

 

Risk 3: Recession

 

The latest stresses emanating from the Eurozone crisis are arriving at a time when the global economy slowed and is therefore more vulnerable to shocks. As global economist, Andy Cates, recently noted, model results suggest the probability of a global recession have risen to 15% from about nil just a few months ago. Global economic activity indicators have slumped relative to consensus estimates over the past month. And although the weakness is pronounced in sentiment and survey measures, concerns are rising that 'hard' activity indicators may turn sharply lower as well.

 

The Eurozone crisis imparts two adverse shocks to the world economy. First, heightened uncertainty erodes confidence, resulting in weaker (discretionary) outlays by households and firms alike. Second, increased financial stress and rising counter-party risk—as evidenced by Eurozone bank funding gaps— threatens to curtail credit to the real economy.

 

The market implications of a global 'double-dip' are superficially straightforward. Stocks, commodities and high-yield credit markets would slump, with safe-have bonds (Treasuries and Bunds) and currencies (Swiss franc) rallying.

 

But the scope of moves could be considerable. Notwithstanding the widespread observation that 'stocks are cheap', a global recession could send share prices 20-30% lower. That's not just because earnings would fall. Concerns about how the world economy could extricate itself from recession, given the relative impotence of advanced economy monetary policies and the political or financial restraints on fiscal expansion, would result in more elevated risk premiums. The old adage that stocks don't trade on trough multiples alongside trough earnings might not hold true if the world economy double-dips.

So.... in other words according to UBS, Steve Liesman's CDO Squared bailout rumor source, is that little voice of wishful thinking in the back of his head that always seems to pitch in whenever the danger of all those unvested GE options expiring worthless, and hence the Ponzi finally unwinding, reaches an apex.

Full report:

 


UBS' Euro Doom And Gloom Team Releases Sequel: "The Eurozone Sovereign Crisis Has Entered A More Dangerous Phase"

Posted: 26 Sep 2011 11:39 AM PDT


From the same fine Swiss folks who three weeks ago (and before it was uncovered that when it comes to playing, or at least scapegoating, dangerously, UBS is second to none) brought you, "Under the current structure and with the current membership, the Euro does not work. Either the current structure will have to change, or the current membership will have to change," comes the sequel: "We believe the Eurozone sovereign crisis has entered a more dangerous phase. Financial and banking stresses are plainly evident as concerns about sovereign default grow. Notwithstanding signs from Washington this past weekend that European and world leaders are willing to consider more decisive policies, concrete steps remain elusive. Yet rising uncertainty threatens an already weakened world economy." The Swiss Bank's conclusions? "First, Europe's politicians and policy makers must do more to shore up the Eurozone and investor confidence more generally. Among others, that probably includes stronger capital buffers in the banking sector, an expanded EFSF/ESM to finance bank recapitalization and support Eurozone bond markets, and further fiscal austerity in 'at-risk' Eurozone countries. But these are big asks of Europe's 'political economy'. Hence, the second conclusion: The likelihood is that the crisis will intensify before policy can deliver what is required." Reality 1: Strange little "source" voices inside the heads of chief economists of financial comedy cable channels: 0. 

And let's cut right down to the case, or in this case the section UBS titles, "Risk Scenarios":

Risk case 1: Disorderly default

 

It may be, however, that compromise between the 'troika' and the Greek government becomes at some point impossible. That could occur if the Greek government (and broader socio-political backdrop) is unable to deliver compliance with the IMF program of fiscal austerity, structural adjustment and privatization.

 

This risk scenario could then unfold with a unilateral Greek default, which if not adequately anticipated and provisioned in the form of capital buffers in the financial sector, would lead to the default and collapse of much of the Greek banking system (given its extensive holdings of Greek government debt), which would then spread via counterparty default to the non-financial corporate and household sector in Greece, as well as to the financial counterparties elsewhere, above all in European banks, pension funds and insurance companies. Plausibly, rising risk premiums would also lead to rising bond yields and widening spreads in the government debt markets elsewhere in the Eurozone, above all in Italy and Spain. Selling pressures could easily overwhelm the modest buying-power of the EFSF (assuming its mandate to buy bonds has been approved) and could even challenge the ability or willingness of the ECB to engage in very large- scale bond purchases.

 

The resulting rise in risk premiums would depress economic activity, quite possibly pushing weakly-growing economies such as Italy's into recession, exacerbating sovereign credit risk perceptions. Financial stress and heightened uncertainty would almost surely be transmitted globally, dealing another shock to the already-fragile and wobbly US recovery. Indeed, we believe it would not be an overstatement to consider disorderly Eurozone sovereign default as the chief risk to global recovery.

 

Risk 2: Eurozone exit

In a recent paper "Euro breakup – the Consequences" we demonstrated how complex and costly expensive breaking up the Eurozone would be. The worst case scenario would be the exit of a weak country, such as Greece. Less costly, but still very expensive, would be the case of a strong country leaving the Eurozone. The 'direct' costs include sharp increases in risk premiums and large moves in exchange rates, which would likely result in recessions everywhere, compounded by very high inflation in weak countries that exit and issue their own currency.

 

But the costs extend to widespread financial stress and default. Currency mismatches between assets and liabilities could lead to very large private sector defaults. Beyond that, it would be difficult, in our opinion, to contain financial risks, including bank runs in other 'at risk' countries. The ensuing dislocations in economic and financial terms could even result in severe social unrest and pressures on the political fabric of the EU itself.

 

Elsewhere we have detailed the potential costs of Eurozone exit, either by a weak or strong country departure. We will not repeat those scenarios or calculations here—the interested reader is referred to the publications at the end of this document. However, suffice it to say, that exit represents in all likelihood the most adverse development of all, with output losses for affected Eurozone countries ranging from 20-40% of GDP (if not higher), accompanied by widespread bankruptcy and financial dislocation.

 

Yet that does not mean that exit can be ruled out. In the scenario of a disorderly sovereign default outlined above, political pressure might well result in exit, particularly if the defaulted government had little prospect of receiving financial assistance from the EU, ECB or IMF.

 

Needless to say, however, the broad market implications of disorderly default and exit only differ by degree. In either case, surging risk premiums and falling output would lead to declines in equity prices, widening credit spreads and financial market dislocations on par with those of the immediate post-Lehman brothers market melt-down. The refuges of risk-averse investors would most likely include the usual suspects: cash, the US dollar, Swiss franc and gold.

 

Risk 3: Recession

 

The latest stresses emanating from the Eurozone crisis are arriving at a time when the global economy slowed and is therefore more vulnerable to shocks. As global economist, Andy Cates, recently noted, model results suggest the probability of a global recession have risen to 15% from about nil just a few months ago. Global economic activity indicators have slumped relative to consensus estimates over the past month. And although the weakness is pronounced in sentiment and survey measures, concerns are rising that 'hard' activity indicators may turn sharply lower as well.

 

The Eurozone crisis imparts two adverse shocks to the world economy. First, heightened uncertainty erodes confidence, resulting in weaker (discretionary) outlays by households and firms alike. Second, increased financial stress and rising counter-party risk—as evidenced by Eurozone bank funding gaps— threatens to curtail credit to the real economy.

 

The market implications of a global 'double-dip' are superficially straightforward. Stocks, commodities and high-yield credit markets would slump, with safe-have bonds (Treasuries and Bunds) and currencies (Swiss franc) rallying.

 

But the scope of moves could be considerable. Notwithstanding the widespread observation that 'stocks are cheap', a global recession could send share prices 20-30% lower. That's not just because earnings would fall. Concerns about how the world economy could extricate itself from recession, given the relative impotence of advanced economy monetary policies and the political or financial restraints on fiscal expansion, would result in more elevated risk premiums. The old adage that stocks don't trade on trough multiples alongside trough earnings might not hold true if the world economy double-dips.

So.... in other words according to UBS, Steve Liesman's CDO Squared bailout rumor source, is that little voice of wishful thinking in the back of his head that always seems to pitch in whenever the danger of all those unvested GE options expiring worthless, and hence the Ponzi finally unwinding, reaches an apex.

Full report:

 


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