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Sunday, September 11, 2011

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


Weekly metals review and audio of Sprott, Embry interviews at King World News

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 01:57 PM PDT

9:55p ET Sunday, September 10, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The King World News weekly precious metals review finds Bill Haynes of CMI Gold and Silver reporting a quiet week on the retail front but futures market analyst Dan Norcini shaking his head at brazen intervention in the gold market by central banks. You can listen to their commentary at the King World News Internet site here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/9/10_KWN_W...

Meanwhile, audio of the recent King World News interview with Sprott Asset Management CEO Eric Sprott has been posted here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/9/10_E...

And audio of the recent King World News interview with Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, has been posted here:

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/9/10_J...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Join GATA here:

Toronto Resource Investment Conference
Thursday-Friday, September 15-16, 2011
Sheraton Toronto Centre

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/toronto-resource-investment...

The Silver Summit
Thursday-Friday, October 20-21, 2011
Davenport Hotel, Spokane, Washington

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/the-silver-summit-2011/48

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Wednesday-Saturday, October 26-29, 2011
Hilton New Orelans Riverside Hotel

http://www.neworleansconference.com/

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Prophecy Platinum Drills 49.5 Meters Grading 1.27 g/t PGM+Au at Yukon Wellgreen Project

Company Press Release
August 22, 2011

Prophecy Platinum Corp. (TSX-V: NKL, OTC-QX: PNIKF, Frankfurt: P94P) announces results from its 2011 drilling program for its first completed hole on the Wellgreen Project in the Yukon Territory, Canada.

Borehole WS11-184 encountered 472.6 meters of mineralization grading 0.43% nickel equivalent from surface to the footwall contact. Within this larger swath of mineralization the hole encountered 49.5 meters of 1.27 grams per ton platinum group metals plus gold, 0.71% nickel, and 0.45% copper (or 1.11% nickel equivalent).

The geology transitioned from blebby disseminated to net-textured to massive sulphide approaching the footwall contact grading 6.3% nickel, 1.7% copper, 2.7 grams per ton platinum, 1.6 grams per ton palladium, 0.17 grams per ton gold, and 3.4 grams per ton silver. The drilling zones and results are tabulated here, with more information:

http://www.prophecyplat.com/news_2011_aug22_prophecy_platinum_wellgreen_...



Warning for Silver Investors

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 12:05 PM PDT

Michael Pento: Here is Why Gold & Mining Shares Will Soar

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 10:47 AM PDT

from King World News:

With stocks markets reeling and gold closing the week near the $1,800 level, today King World News interviewed Michael Pento, CEO of Pento Portfolio Strategies. When asked where he sees things headed, Pento stated, "Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said earlier this week that the central bank should increase its target rate for inflation above the current 2% level in an effort to get the economy back on track. Imagine that, the Fed actually believes what the economy really needs is more of the inflation that brought it to its knees in the first place."

Michael Pento continues: Read More @ KingWorldNews.com


Greek prime minister George Papandreou under fire amid rumours that creditors are about to pull the plug

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 08:26 AM PDT

Greece on verge of default as doubt grows over €8bn bailout Is this thing gonna collapse this weekend? Seems like we’re building up to ‘Lehman’ moment.


Michael Pento - Here is Why Gold & Mining Shares Will Soar

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 08:23 AM PDT

With stocks markets reeling and gold closing the week near the $1,800 level, today King World News interviewed Michael Pento, CEO of Pento Portfolio Strategies. When asked where he sees things headed, Pento stated, "Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said earlier this week that the central bank should increase its target rate for inflation above the current 2% level in an effort to get the economy back on track. Imagine that, the Fed actually believes what the economy really needs is more of the inflation that brought it to its knees in the first place."


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Broken Markets (by Intervention and Manipulation)

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 08:18 AM PDT

 

By thetrader.se

 

It was a "strange" Friday session. European Trading started off in a quite no volume HFT manner, as is usual during these days. As news flow started increasing during the course of the day, investors had to digest news of Stark resigning, Greece going bust, Trichet's confusing conference from Thursday, Italian banks halted, renewed spikes in European CDS prices etc. Suddenly the boring session turned into mini Flash Crashes across Assets. As the Euro started sliding, the DAX accelerated the fall, JPY began trading very flashy, while safe heaven Gold lost 50 USD in 5 minutes.

The Market is starting to show some very "disturbing" patterns. Manipulation and Intervention is causing an ever increased volatility in the Market, and risks bringing the system down. With correlations at historical highs, highest correlation levels in the SPX since the crash of 87, all moves are even more exaggerated by the HFT Community. The Market Microstructure is broken by the multiple interventions and manipulations of Assets. We are risking the big breakdown as resonance in the Market increases.

 

 

 

"After rallying nearly 100 USD last week from 1795 to 1895 with demand coming from the official sector and some leveraged players rebuilding length following the severe prior correction we traded to new all time highs of 1922 on Tuesday shortly before the Swiss Franc intervention.

The immediate aftermath was in complete contradiction to prior recent episodes of intervention and what anyone would have expected. Instead of spurring a further gold price rally on the basis that it was one of the few remaining safe haven "currencies" we saw a 50 USD collapse in minutes.

The source of this flow seems hard to pin down with some speculating over whether "authorities" were concerned about the signals of an accelerating gold price and its impact on other fragile markets. Soon after, much of the losses were recovered but the psychological damage had been done and there followed a series of liquidations from within the leverage space with gold closing down 50 USD on the day. This was then exacerbated by a near 60 USD flash crash within 2 minutes during the Asian session."

Goldman Sachs

 

 

 

The first of several min Flash Crashes in the DAX on Friday.

 

 

 

Late into the European Trading session, the JPY started the Flashy behavior.

If the above mentioned is due to Interventions and/or (lack of) Manipulations we don't know, but these patterns are not good for trying to create a stable environment for investors. We can't but agree with Jessie, the Market is run by Psychopaths among Us. We are rather concerned with the big Black Swan event around the corner, which will be magnified by the HFT Community, and ultimately create the big Panic. This market has recently started bringing down even the highly experienced Traders.

Let's see what next week has to offer.


Silver Update 9/9/11 - ABCs

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 07:20 AM PDT


Economic Roadkill

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 07:05 AM PDT

Economic Roadkill

Courtesy of guest author MIKE WHITNEY

Originally published at CounterPunch

If you really want to know what's going on with the economy,  you should take a look at the Fed's Consumer Credit Report that was released on Thursday. Yes, it's a real snoozer, but it does reveal the truth behind all the "recovery" hype. So, let's cut to the chase: When unemployment is high and wages are stagnant, the only way the economy can grow is through credit expansion. That's why economists pay so much attention to the credit report, because it lets them see if we're making progress or not. Right now, we're not making any headway at all. Of course, the cheerleading media see things differently. Here's a clip from an article in Bloomberg that puts a positive spin on a truly dismal report:

"Credit increased $12 billion after a revised $11.3 billion rise in June, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. Economists projected a $6 billion gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The rise in non-revolving loans was the most since November 2001." ("U.S. Consumer Borrowing Rose by $12 Billion in July, Twice Amount Forecast", Bloomberg)

Hooray!  The US consumer is off the canvas and borrowing again. Let the celebration begin!

Not so fast. The uptick in credit spending is entirely attributable to subprime auto loans and government-backed student loans, both of which are a mere extension of the same Ponzi-finance scam that put the global economy into cardiac arrest. Every other area of credit expansion is on-the-ropes. Commercial banks, finance companies, credit unions, savings institutions, nonfinancial businesses, and pools of securitized assets are all flatlining. No progress at all. In other words, the only way to induce tightfisted consumers to spend money they don't have is by either seducing them with "No-down, easy-pay, 60-month-no-interest" financing or by hoodwinking them about the 6-figure income they'll net after they finish their college education at Lunkhead U.

Case in point; check out this article on subprime auto loans in Reuters:

"Lenders are making more subprime auto loans again, reversing the cautious approach they adopted after the credit crisis, an industry research firm said on Tuesday. The portion of car loans made to subprime borrowers rose to 40.8 percent in the second quarter from 37.2 percent a year earlier, according to Experian Automotive, a unit of credit bureau and research firm Experian Plc.

The data shows how keen lenders are to boost their loan books amid a sluggish economy….

Average credit scores for borrowers declined and the average term for their loans extended by one month to 63 months on new cars and 59 months on used cars, according to Experian.

"We are continuing to see growth in subprime, both new and used, and loans are becoming looser," Melinda Zabritski, director of automotive credit for Experian, said in an interview.

Executives at Ally Financial said in May that subprime car lending had become "very attractive" because profit margins on the loans more than cover the cost of expected losses from borrowers who fail to repay what they owe. Making the loans is part of Ally's strategy to grow by lending on more used cars….

Industry veterans have said that while the loans have been attractive recently, more lenders are entering the market and competing for business by lowering prices, a trend that could lead to higher losses in the future." ("Lenders making more subprime car loans: report", Reuters)

Bigger profits off lower credit scores. Now where have we heard that load of malarkey before?

We haven't even paid for the last subprime meltdown, and we're on to the next? Might a little regulation be a good idea here? Maybe some standardized loans so the banksters running these loan-laundering operations don't blow up the system again and come around begging for more bailouts?

Oh no, of course not. That would be an intrusion on the divine workings of the free market.

Bottom line: Yes, it is possible to boost credit if one is willing to lend gobs of money to anyone who can fog a mirror, but is that really an indication of "economic recovery" or just more proof that the system is staggeringly out-of-whack?

And then there's the student loan biz, as big a fleecing operation as ever existed. This is where the real pros hang-out now, luring their prey with promises of hefty salaries after they graduate and then loading them up with enough debt to make their eyes pop out.   But, hey, let's not forget the upside of all this chicanery; all that fleecing beefs up the Fed's Credit Report and makes it look like the economy is bouncing back. That's got to be worth something, right? And, besides, everyone is "doing it"; fleecing college kids, that is. Here's an excerpt from an article in The Atlantic:

"How do colleges manage it? Kenyon has erected a $70 million sports palace featuring a 20-lane olympic pool. Stanford's professors now get paid sabbaticals every fourth year, handing them $115,000 for not teaching. Vanderbilt pays its president $2.4 million. Alumni gifts and endowment earnings help with the costs. But a major source is tuition payments, which at private schools are breaking the $40,000 barrier, more than many families earn. Sadly, there's more to the story. Most students have to take out loans to remit what colleges demand. At colleges lacking rich endowments, budgeting is based on turning a generation of young people into debtors.

As this semester begins, college loans are nearing the $1 trillion mark, more than what all households owe on their credit cards. Fully two-thirds of our undergraduates have gone into debt, many from middle class families, who in the past paid for much of college from savings. The College Board likes to say that the average debt is "only" $27,650. What the Board doesn't say is that when personal circumstances go wrong, as can happen in a recession, interest, late payment penalties, and other charges can bring the tab up to $100,000. Those going on to graduate school, as upwards of half will, can end up facing twice that."  ("The Debt Crisis at American Colleges," The Atlantic)

Do you think these pillars of rectitude would ever dream of warning our kids that they might they might be getting in-over-their-heads, that they might want to reconsider what they're doing so they don't spend the rest of their lives trying to get out of the red?

Nah. It's not my problem, they figure. Besides why rock the boat. If these kids ever figure out that they just flushed $100,000 down the latrine for a mid-level management job at Herfy's that pays $22K per year with no-time-off, they might just go ape and torch our lovely new sports pavilion. We can't have that, now can we?

Here's more from another article in The Atlantic:

"Student loan debt has grown by 511% over this period. In the first quarter of 1999, just $90 billion in student loans were outstanding. As of the second quarter of 2011, that balance had ballooned to $550 billion.

How does the housing bubble debt compare? If you add together mortgages and revolving home equity, then from the first quarter of 1999 to when housing-related debt peaked in the third quarter of 2008, the sum increased from $3.28 trillion to $9.98 trillion. Over this period, housing-related debt had increased threefold. Meanwhile, over the entire period shown on the chart, the balance of student loans grew by more than 6x. The growth of student loans has been twice as steep — and it's showing no signs of slowing.

Obviously the number of students didn't grow by 511%. So why are education loans growing so rapidly? One reason could be availability. The government's backing lets credit to students flow very freely. And as the article from yesterday noted, universities are raising tuition aggressively since students are willing to pay more through those loans.

All this college debt could put the U.S. on a slower growth path in the years to come. As Americans grapple with high student loan payments for the first few decades of their adult lives, they'll have less money to spend and invest. All that money flowing into colleges and universities is being funneled away from other industries where it would have been spent in future years. Of course, this would be a rather unfortunate irony: higher education is supposed to enhance a nation's growth, but with such an enormous debt burden, graduates might not be able to spend and invest enough to allow that growth to occur." ("Chart of the Day: Student Loans Have Grown 511% Since 1999?, The Atlantic)

Young people are just the latest subset of victims in Big Capital's endless search for roadkill. No sense getting all huffy about it. But it does help to shed a little light on underlying condition of the economy vis a vis the Fed's Credit Report.

Indeed, credit is expanding, but only in the areas where the sinister lifting of consumer protections (deregulation) has allowed finance vultures to do their dirty work. As for the economy, it still stinks. But, then, you already knew that. 

*****

See also Michael Panzner's Another Disaster in the Making

Here's a graph from Michael:

Consumercreditstudentloan

 

Picture credit:

Image (top) from www.michiganimaging.com

Image (bottom) from http://users.frii.com/donlight/archive/97arc.htm 

Via: Worms & Germs Blog. Learn what to do when you find a dead animal on the road here. Okay, okay, here's a hint about what not to do:

Bottom line: the risk of contracting rabies from roadkill is very low. Roadkill contact has never, to my knowledge, been identified as a source of infection. Rabies transmission from dead animals has been documented, however, such as a couple cases of rabies from people preparing dead animals for food.


Sean Corrigan On The Tenth Anniversary

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 05:54 AM PDT

Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities, on the ten year anniversary, a look back on the day after.

A Modest Craft

Sept 12 2001

It is at times like these that we in the financial sector are humbled in the presumption of our own importance and of the meaning of our works. Daily, we chase the ebb and flow of symbols and numbers across the screens and ticker tapes of the world, seeking to distill from them a fleeting pattern, or to recognize within them some more enduring form.

Rarely, if ever, amid the hubbub of the trading room or the raw intensity of the Pit, do we reflect on the power of such symbols. We crane for each flickering change in a terse alphanumeric—USZ1, DELL, CPI +0.2%, DAX +150—each of us striving uselessly, but compulsively, to see it before our peers do, or, with a little more purpose, to interpret it more quickly than they.

These electronic lights represent a stock, a bond, a currency; of that much we remain aware. But the stocks or bonds themselves are but symbols: a claim to the ownership of a minuscule fraction of some sprawling enterprise, or a right to receive payment from it in days to come.

Again, that payment—in dollars, or euros, or yen—is another symbol: a sign that men have "laboured the earth," in Jefferson's trenchant phrase, and that they seek to exchange the fruits of those labours for our own.

This is where the chain of ciphers and sigils leads us at last, then—to the efforts of ordinary men and women going about their daily lives, working at one thing, the thing at which they are most competent, in order to swap their efforts for other things, for a whole diversity of things, made, in turn, by countless, faceless others doing what they are good at, too.

By such free and open exchange, best conducted using fair and honest chains of symbols so that no man is unwittingly deluded or knowingly defrauded in the act, we each seek to serve our enlightened self-interest and satisfy both basic needs and wider aspirations. We find the opportunity where we are most rewarded, and we send out our labours into the vast, teeming, immaterial, immanent Market that is our world.

And—O Mirabile—what things come back, in what profusion, pouring in from all corners of the globe, from people we have never seen, whom we will never see, and who equally are oblivious to our very existence also.

This is the majesty of the free market, of capitalism, this self-organizing scheme that most fully utilizes our jewelled planet's greatest resource—humanity itself—so that the masses of today live better than all the fearsome khans and haughty emperors of old.

But on Tuesday, out of a clear autumnal sky, all this was put at deadly hazard by earnest men, albeit men whose earnestness had been twisted into suicidal hatred by the potent brew of fanaticism and despair. By their intricate assault on the good people of the U.S., these men showed that they were versed in the power of symbols all too well.

To attack the Pentagon—a cabbalistic form, if ever there was one—was shocking enough, displaying what guerrilla fighters have shown from time immemorial: that all of Caesar's legions cannot guard against the man who fears nothing but to fail, and who holds his life most gloriously spent in depriving his enemies of theirs.

But far more shocking yet was the strike deep into the very heart of trade, of commerce, and of finance that those few crammed canyons of soaring steel and glittering glass at the tip of Manhattan represented, not just to America, but to the entire world. This was not just an abomination: in many ways, it was a deliberate act of sacrilege.

In tens of minutes, before unbelieving eyes staring from the streets below or gazing in horrid fascination at TV screens across the globe, fireball billowed into smoke and then collapse: crushing, utter, complete and roaring collapse.

As though struck from where they stretched unto the very portals of some jealous god to choking dust and stumbling rubble, they fell in ruinous descent, and Hope itself seemed perished.

The Twin Towers, standing symbolically over Wall Street, were a 1,300-foot rendition of those two, short verticals that transform a mere "S" into a dollar, transmuting it to a symbol for work and wealth and well-being across the Earth.

The enormity of the towers' swift destruction has been such as to suspend analysis. We have yet to truly register what has been done, how many lives have been lost in screaming (if mercifully brief) terror, how many countless other lives will bear the mark of what was wrought, shivering in the cold snatch of fear each time they see the suddenly naked skyline of New York.

It would be heartening to think that sober wisdom will now occasion restraint in the councils of the powerful, that the understandable desire for retribution, for lex talionis, to be invoked neither will lead to rash and unjust acts that only serve to excite more hatred, nor open up the way for the ever-eager State to intrude more insidiously in people's lives at home, while snarling ever more belligerently at foes—real or imagined—abroad.

It would be heartening to believe that in America of all nations, the brash, young, self-confidence of its people will swiftly reassert itself, that temperance will season justice, and that this brief, vicarious brush with mortality will give rise to a more measured outlook on life.

It would be heartening to think that, having been shocked by just how fragile is the framework on which we build our dreams, we will become less prone to forcing them upon others. Our fear must be that, in a world already made fractious and divided by the inexorable, UN-inspired, left-liberal-sanctioned politicizing of race and creed and gender, a world made insecure by the erosion of freedom and the imposition of alien values by the Guardians of our global Platonic republic, yet more discord is sown.

We must also fear that, in a world made resentful by seeing the fruits of its labours channelled to vainglorious corporate demi-gods who strut the stage like Achilles simply because a hyperactive credit system has grossly inflated their stock price, Capitalism is made to take the blame.

Capitalism is about the better production of wealth and its distribution through unrestricted exchange. It is about the multiplication of output that comes about by the division of labour. It is about the preservation of capital—those mental and physical tools that build each successive flight on our long stairway out of penury and deprivation—and it achieves that preservation only by the common virtue of thrift and the duty of stewardship on one hand, and by the banishment of envy and the sanctity of property upon the other. 

Capitalism is about "labouring the earth" more fruitfully so that fewer men go needy, so that the next fanatic finds less willing recruits, so that amid bustling commercial intercourse, barriers of class and race and ignorance are dissolved into mutual respect and benefit.

Capitalism is nothing to do with the agents of the Crown who sail alongside the honest argosies of trade. Capitalism is nothing to do, either, with the forced acceptance of any creed or code of law, save that of the honest self-interest by which both buyer and seller achieve an increment of value in their exchange.

For we must realize that Capitalism, this most certain route to prosperity devised by man, is also the victim of the exactions of the State and the depredations of the credit system. Why else, even before yesterday's barbaric deeds, were we increasingly in peril of our livelihoods, our investments, and our savings?

Sadly, that is a verity too rarely glimpsed when the battle ensigns of the fleet and the Jolly Rogers of the corsairs are concealed amid the merry, ingenuous bunting of the mass of ordinary merchantmen seeking innocently to ply their trade.

From this passing meditation on these matters, which this week's dark happenings have prompted, we shall soon return to the business of chasing symbols and trying to make sense of them. That is, after all, our modest craft in the rich whirl of the market.

For today, we pray for the maimed and the bereaved. We are anxious for the path of the economy and our immediate prosperity. We fret that liberty will once again be the most enduring loser.

In memoriam,

Sean Corrigan

Chief Investment Strategist

Diapason Commodities Management S.A.


Greece Debt Default On Deck.... Stock Market Anxious...

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 05:24 AM PDT

Late this morning, after the market started recovering from its early move lower to start the day, there was news from Germany that Greece was likely to default by some time next week. The Dow fell two hundred points in a very short period of time as traders and investors started removing themselves from long plays. Hard to blame them, of course, as this type of news, should it become fact, would be devastating for markets around the world. The market spent the rest of the day spinning and churning once we got to -300 on the Dow. There was no collapse past that initial move lower off the news, but no real rally either.


Fed 'Twisting' Will Stimulate Economic Activity for Bond Market Traders

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 05:22 AM PDT

The consensus view is that after adjourning from its September 20-21 meeting the FOMC will announce a plan to lengthen the maturity structure of its securities portfolio by increasing the proportion of longer-maturity securities in the portfolio. Importantly, the size of the overall securities portfolio is likely to be held constant. Thus, shorter-maturity securities will be sold and/or allowed to run-off and be replaced with a like dollar amount of longer-maturity securities. Presumably, the intended purpose of these securities transactions is to push down yields on longer-maturity securities. The FOMC most likely would prefer that the yields on shorter-term securities remain at their current very low level, but would not be terribly disturbed if these yields drifted up a bit as more of these shorter-maturity securities were dumped into the market from the Fed's portfolio. The presumed purpose of this "twisting" of the shape of the yield curve is to stimulate the demand for longer-lived real assets such as houses, durable consumer goods, business capital equipment and nonresidential real estate by lowering the interest rates on longer-term fixed rate loans and securities.


Bank Of Countrywide Asbestos

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 05:02 AM PDT

Ten days ago Zero Hedge presented the idea of applying an Asbestos-type settlement to the neverending lawsuits against Bank of America which if continue at the current rate will result in the swift and brutal end of the massively undercapitalized bank by a thousand Rep and Warranty litigation cuts. Yesterday, we were happy to see that the idea has received far broader billing, and is being taken up by non other than Reuters: "When some look at all of the litigation arising from Bank of America's big role in the U.S. mortgage mess, they start thinking of asbestos and how thousands of lawsuits arising from that cancer-causing product brought down many manufacturers more than a decade ago. The solution back then to dealing with claims filed by more than 750,000 workers exposed to asbestos was the creation of dozens of "asbestos settlement trusts," which have paid out tens of billions dollars in damages. Some of them are still going strong today. The asbestos trusts were seen as an innovative approach to deal with seemingly endless litigation and provide a measure of compensation to sick workers and their families. The system for dealing with claims also allowed some of the hobbled manufacturers to emerge from bankruptcy largely free of the crushing weight of lawsuits." In other words, the choices for Bank of America are now two: either it prepares for a slow, painful, insolvency as all of its cash is bled out in litigation fees and "one-time" lawsuit charges, or, almost just as bad, it funds a massive trust, ringfencing all past, current, and future claims, and which is funded...by nearly all of Bank of America's equity. Yes, the end result will be a near wipe out of the existing Bank of America stock, but it will not be bankruptcy! In essence, what BAC will do is a bankruptcy remote "prepackaged bankruptcy" in which it spins off its contingent liabilities, with an equity buffer of whatever the litigants choose (most likely up to about 95% of the firm's current equity value), and proceeds to grow as a simple bank (with or without Merrill) and fund itself through retained earnings, in the process shedding off the "cancer" that are $1.2 trillion in toxic mortgages. The result of this would be a BAC share price of under $1 but that is inevitable. The alternative: freefall chapter 11 and technically 7 (which will never be allowed by the administration, sorry Chris Whalen), means BAC trades to $0.00, and the status quo system of crony communism is finished.

As a reminder, from Zero Hedge:

And some more from Reuters on the theoretical underpinnings of this idea..

"We've suggested an asbestos-style settlement as a solution. It makes the most sense," says Vincent Fiorillo, a portfolio manager with DoubleLine Capital, a $15 billion bond shop that has its own pending claims against the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender. "It is better than where we are right now."

 

The idea of using the asbestos litigation wars as a model for dealing with the fallout from the financial crisis is more talk than anything else. There's no indication an asbestos-style litigation trust is something Bank of America is actively considering at the moment.

 

But efforts to find a creative solution to Bank of America's multi-pronged exposure to Countrywide's ailing mortgage portfolio become more urgent with each downward tick in the bank's already depressed share price.

And practical...

This is not the first time that some have talked about a litigation trust as a mechanism to deal with some of Wall Street's liability arising from the collapse of the U.S. housing market. In the early days of the financial crisis, regulators discussed the merits of using an asbestos-style trust to resolve potential litigation claims against the biggest U.S. banks. But regulators ultimately rejected the trust concept along with other novel ideas that were deemed either unworkable or politically untenable.

 

One appeal to a trust solution, according to proponents, is that it would be a way for a bank to essentially hive off its litigation liability and establish a mechanism for dealing with claims and litigation. The advocates suggest it would be a way for Bank of America to get a "fresh start" without involving a bankruptcy or a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation-imposed receivership.

To be sure, an Asbestos resolution is not a magic bullet, and will still cost existing equity (and Buffett) virtually their entire investment:

The insurance industry continues to be plagued with new asbestos-related claims years after the trusts were created. Credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service recently said after asbestos being a "back burner" issues for years, the U.S. insurance industry is recently seeing an uptick in new asbestos claims.

 

And the problem with any trust is that it must be adequately capitalized. The amount of money the bank would have to commit would no doubt be contentious and costly to shareholders and potentially bondholders as well.

 

The easiest way to fund a litigation trust would be for Bank of America to issue new shares, something that would severely reduce the value of its existing stock. That's not the kind of plan that will sit well with stockholders, whose shares are already trading well below the bank's stated book value of $20 a share.

 

"You'd have to go to the market and raise capital for this and that would dilute shares," says Australian hedge fund manager John Hempton, whose Bronte Capital owns a sizable stake in the bank. "That is the last thing BofA wants to do right now."

Alas, Buffett's idiotic investment betting on yet another taxpayer funded bailout has derailed the train for the time being:

But if some momentum was building for a radical solution, Buffett's $5 billion investment changed that. Now even some early advocates of an asbestos-style litigation trust are having second thoughts.

 

"The dynamics have changed dramatically since Buffett entered the picture," says Sean Egan, a principal of Egan-Jones Ratings Company, an independent rating shop which has eased up on its once bearish view of Bank of America. "It's a kiss of approval," he added, even though the bank is paying a rich 6 percent dividend on the preferred stock it sold to Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

 

Egan says an asbestos-style trust seemed like a plausible solution during the summer when Bank of America seemed to have few friends in the equity markets. But now, Egan says, to set up a litigation trust would "create a total mess" and "be patently unfair to existing shareholders."

 

Just a few months ago, Egan discussed the merits of such a trust with several mortgage-backed securities investors now sparring with Bank of America. Those investors claim the bank is obligated to buy back the underlying home loans in those now soured bonds because the mortgages were issued to homebuyers who either obviously lacked the income to keep making monthly payments, or were duped into taking out greater loans than they could afford.

So for the time being the litigation push is delayed. Although likely not for long: BAC will soon need to access the capital markets very aggressively, which means its stock will plunge even more on daily headline risk:

Skeptics also point out that in the coming years, Bank of America will need to boost capital by $50 billion in order to comply with new international banking regulations designed to make sure banks are not taking on too much risk.

 

And next year, Bank of America will need to refinance at least $40 billion in corporate debt that is coming due. In a worst case scenario, the bank has more than $400 billion in liquid assets to pay off any maturing debt.

 

It's a lot of capital raising and skeptics worry that could hamper Bank of America's ability to generate new commercial and residential loans for the next several years. That's one reason people like Black, who want to break Bank of America apart, say something needs to be done to change the narrative because it's not healthy for one of the nation's biggest banks to exist in stasis for years to come.

One thing is certain: anyone calling for a prompt return of BAC to a $20/30/share price is certainly insane (we refer to Dick Bove's appearance on Fox News yesterday), and should never get media exposure again (just as a media desperate Dick Bove had promised months ago only to have not one but two daily showing on the ponzi channels in an attempt to get more gullible Americans to follow Buffett in throwing their money down the black hole). Also certain is that no matter what one believes, the Bank of America matter is one of cash flows: not enough (A) coming in, and more than enough (B) leaving. Regardless of how one spins it, as long as B>A, the stock price will drop ever more until bankruptcy eventually becomes an inevitability. As such any attempts to stop the bleeding should be enforced. However, pathetic attempts such as the $8.5 billion settlement only provoke and infuriate the plaintiff class (at least those who are not desperate in imposing a Res Judicata) and make any real cash retention options next to impossible.

In the meantime, two things are certain: all else equal (and with Bernanke around, they never are), the stock will continue dropping, and the CDS will continue widening until it is too late.


Saab on Brink of Collapse

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 04:55 AM PDT

David Jolly


TAKING a bleak view of Saab Automobile's prospects for recovery, a Swedish court has rejected the troubled car maker's application for protection from creditors. The decision sharply narrows its room for maneuvering and pushes it a step closer to financial collapse. Saab employees have not been paid for August, and the company's unions had been considering legal action that could have forced the company into liquidation when the bid for protection from creditors was announced on Wednesday.

One of Saab's unions will decide within a few days whether to ask that Saab be declared bankrupt, said Leif Hakansson, a spokesman for the IF Metall North Alvsborg union. ''We regret that Saab Automobile is not going to get the time it needs until the funding from Pang Da and Youngman arrives,'' he said in a statement.


More Free Gold From SilverGoldBull

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 04:42 AM PDT

If there is one thing we have learned about our good friends at SilverGoldBull.com it is that they not only like selling gold and silver to people, but they also like giving it away. So when we announced that Great Panther Silver had offered to take over from SGB as this year's sponsor of our "Miners Challenge", it was not a surprise to see a note in my inbox a few days later from Bobby Belandis of SilverGoldBull.

It seems that SGB has once again gotten the "itch" to give away some more of their bullion. While Great Panther has brought a bunch of its silver to give away in our miners contest, SilverGoldBull has decided to give away some of its gold. This will be very convenient for those members of our audience who want to win prizes from both contests – but don't want their own "silver/gold ratio" to get out of whack.

Bobby noted that SGB was hosting this contest on their own site this time, rather than on our site. My reply was that this would not be a problem, as Bullion Bulls Canada readers are neither "too proud" nor "too lazy" to follow the SilverGoldBull banner to their site to register.

Regular readers know our modus operandi for these contests: we make people work for their prizes. You either have to pick the best miner, ask us some challenging question, or simply do a lot of posting on our site. On the other hand, SilverGoldBull is making winning free gold on their site as easy as possible. Here are the contest details:

- Sign up for a FREE account to be entered in their monthly draw for a 1-oz Gold Maple Leaf

- Those with existing accounts need to log-in at least once a month to remain eligible

- Only one "account" per person

- No purchase necessary

Once people have registered for their free, SilverGoldBull account then they instantly become eligible for exclusive discounts which SGB offers their clients (along with their promo codes). They will also receive free "Market Alerts" and "Precious Metals Market News".

Of course this contest is not for everyone. Some people are simply "immune" to the aesthetic appeal of these beautiful metals, and are not impressed by the 5,000 year track-record of gold as a perfect vessel for storing one's wealth. Other people already have their homes filled with clutter – and simply have no space to store these 1-oz coins.

However, for those of you who do find these beautiful, glittering coins attractive; who do want to protect your wealth by having it stored in gold (or silver); and who can find "space" for one (or more) of these 1-oz Maples, what are you waiting for?


Shockwaves Felt In Markets for a Decade

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 04:35 AM PDT

John Beveridge


THE September 11 terrorist attacks of a decade ago continue to reverberate in financial markets. And with the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the attacks and the reaction to them played a big role in laying the groundwork for the Global Financial Crisis that is still being felt and the very costly -- in human and economic terms -- wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the days following the disaster, there were many people claiming that this turning point in history would spark an immediate and apocalyptic economic meltdown in the US. It is easy to see where those assessments sprang from, even though they turned out to be wildly wide of the mark -- or at the least a little premature. After the first plane ploughed into the twin towers of the World Trade Centre, trading on the New York Stock Exchange was delayed. After the second plane crashed and the towers began to collapse, the world's biggest and most influential exchange was closed for the day and did not reopen until the following Monday.

Ironically, the concerns about debt levels have seen more money flow into US Treasuries, forcing down yields and making it easier and cheaper for the US to raise even more debt. Here in Australia, we have been partly insulated from the economic after-effects of September 11 and the financial crisis, thanks to our exposure to growing Asian economies. However, we are far from immune, with share prices still trading in the doldrums, continuing consumer uncertainty and now a cautious savings culture.


Sky's the Limit for Precious Metals Now: Eric Sprott

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 03:51 AM PDT

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver About an hour after I filed my Friday column in the wee hours of the morning, the bullion banks launched another coordinated attack on the precious metals that began at precisely 11:00 a.m. BST in London. In about thirty minutes they had peeled about $45 off the gold price before the selling stopped. A rally of sorts developed starting at 1:00 p.m. in London...which was 8:00 a.m. Eastern time right on the button. This rally took the price back up to just about Friday's close, before it got sold off again. Then a smallish rally developed in the thinly traded New York Access Market...and gold only finished down $11 spot on the day. It doesn't take a masters degree in common sense to figure out that if 'da boyz' hadn't shown up in London...and probably in New York at times during their trading day...gold would have finished the week in spectacular fashion. Volume was pretty chunky. Silver's price path was very similar to gold's...and...


Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: September 6-9, 2011

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 03:41 AM PDT

Submitted by Rodrigo Serrano of Rational Capitalist Speculator

Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: September 6-9, 2011

Bull

+ US International Trade improved substantially in July and doesn't   support the argument for a double-dip recession.  The trade deficit (=Exports-Imports) narrowed to $44.8 billion from $51.6 billion in June, a decline of 13.1%.  This is the largest percentage decline since February 2009.  Exports shot up to record highs.  April, May, and June deficits were also revised lower and will result in an upward revision to GDP.   

+ The Non-Manufacturing ISM number points to a surprisingly resilient economy.  A reading of 53.3 for August is higher than expected and, more importantly, is higher than the 52.7 reading for July.  Note that the service industry makes up close to 90% of the economy.  The jobs related subindex reading of 51.6 shows continued expansion in payrolls.  This result confirms that the economy hasn't entered recession.    

+ Obama announces his stimulus plan.  This time it is centered on jobs which is exactly the prescription our economy needs.  Among the most prominent details: a 50% slashing in payroll taxes to help small businesses and workers, much needed help for state and local governments, and an invitation for private money to participate in rebuilding America.  This package is different than the 2009 stimulus.  It would be much more effective.  

+ An end to the tightening cycle in China is at hand.  Inflation is increasingly under control.  The Chinese economy has survived the cycle in growth mode.  The arguments for a soft-landing are gaining strength.  China's economy will continue to power the global economy and the bears are setting themselves up for bankruptcy as the market powers higher in the coming weeks.

+ The Euro will make it through this period of turbulence.  Germany's Constitutional Court rules in favor of the government and deems aid packages for the Eurozone within the guidelines of the German Constitution.  Though the process is painful, the path for the Eurozone is one towards fiscal union — a United States of Europe.  Continued progress will lift the single most damaging headwind threatening the global recovery.

+ While the result may be skewed a bit by seasonal adjustments, a strong rise in industrial production in July for Germany shows that global demand is still online and the global economy remains in growth mode.  Perhaps a better signal of continued global economic growth can be found in Australia, where GDP outperformed analyst expectations.  

Bear

- Swiss authorities pledge unlimited buying of contra-currencies to weaken the Franc and is a shot across the bow in the ongoing global Currency War.  A strengthening Franc has materially damaged Switzerland's export sector.  Its Central Bank has had enough.  But, will they be able to conquer market forces?  Ask the Japanese (they seem to be the example on so many levels these days).  The devaluation race just shifted into a higher gear.     

- The EU pressure cooker is whistling.  Merkel is losing significant support for her bailout policies.  How can she continue to dole out taxpayer money if her country's economy is in danger of entering recession?  She's striking a more hard-lined tone towards Greece on further aid, while behind the scenes, her government is making preparations for a possible Greek default (how's that for confidence?).  The problem is that political-will in Greece and Italy is wilting in the face of strikes and unrest.  Meanwhile, Trichet makes official the obvious, "downside risks have intensified".  The tightening cycle in the region has been put on hold and the Central Bank seems to be in disarray.  Austerity is wrecking havoc on the periphery.  Italian officials are tempering their GDP view, which is likely to miss government forecasts.  Spain isn't producing encouraging economic data.  Let's not even mention Greece (…oops, just did).  

- OECD cuts growth forecasts for the U.S and Japan.  The report is alarming in that it essentially paints a picture of a giant global stall.  Mirroring the IMF, one can see how dependent investors have become on monetary and fiscal stimulus.  This is NOT normal.  Economies are suppose to grow on their own, yet pleas for all sorts of stimulus drives home the point of just how weak the patient really is.  More morphine please.  

- The jobs market remains in the doldrums as jobless claims rise versus expectations of a decline.  Applications for unemployment insurance rose to 414,000 from an upwardly revised 412,000 (was 409,000).  The 4-week moving average, a better measure of the metric as it smooths out weekly distortions, moved higher by 3,750 to 414,750.  This is the highest level in more than 1 month.       

- Fannie Mae releases its widely followed National Housing Survey.  The results are disappointing and contradict the hopium and kool-aid that the bulls can't get enough of.  More than 75% of respondents say the economy is on the wrong track.  From Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, "I believe the public was looking at the U.S. debt, deficit, and the ensuing political struggle with one eye, and looking at Europe and their sovereign debt issues with the other eye, and saying: 'This is not what we want.'"  This result closely mirrors the recent Bloomberg Confidence survey.  

- Consumption continues to suffer.  The bulls keep ignoring blatant signals of consumption weakness (don't own WMT).  Meanwhile, let's take a look at this week's ECRI reading.  Still supportive of the bear's views, falling from -4.4 to -6.2.

(Source: dshort.com


Eric Sprott: “We're Heading Over the Cliff Here. The Only Thing Likely to Survive is Precious Metals”

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 03:04 AM PDT

King World News has just released an interview with Eric Sprott: Chairman, CEO & Portfolio Manager of Sprott Asset Management.

Eric has over 40 years of experience in the investment industry and manages over $10 billion. He has been stunningly accurate in his writings for over a decade, and is one of the most respected industry professionals who accurately foresaw the current crisis. Eric chronicled the dangers of excessive leverage as well as the bubbles the Fed was creating, while correctly forecasting the tragic collapse. Sprott Asset Management is one of the top firms in the world. The firm has become well known not only for its performance, but also for creating a gold and now silver trust.

You can listen to the interview HERE. (On the left side of the page, half way down, click on the small purple logo that reads, "Listen to MP3 – CLICK HERE")


Gold Withstands Massive Attack / Global Bourses Falter

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 02:15 AM PDT

by Harvey Organ:

Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen:

[...] Gold closed the comex session at $1856.40 for a gain of $2.00. Silver faltered to the tune of 91 cents to $41.56.

The price of gold as I promised you on Thursday night would be extremely volatile and I did not disappoint you with that. The morning fix of gold at 3 am Friday morning was $1879.50. It hit its zenith at over $1880.00 a few minutes before that. It then began to swoon and hit its nadir at around 6 am at 1822.30. It then started its assault again rising to 1851.50 which became the afternoon London fix. Another wave of selling brought gold to around $1840 when our gold bugs again took charge and gold never looked back. It finished the comex session at $1856.40 and in the access market it gained another $2.00 to close out the gold book at $1858.60. It seems the entire planet was aware of the gold manipulation including Goldman Sachs who are now long in gold as they have not been shy commenting on the manipulation of gold by authorities. Silver was hit because of its label as an industrial metal. The Dow suffered a big loss of over 303 points.(2.69%)

Read More @ HarveyOrgan.Blogspot.com


WikiLeaks Cable Confirms: U.S. & Europe Trying to Suppress Price of Gold

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 02:14 AM PDT

WikiLeaks’ release of a U.S. State Department internal embassy cable on the subject of Beijing's plan for undermining the U.S. dollar’s reserve status*through the gold market clearly exposes both the clandestine operations at the Fed/Treasury as well as reveals who's been sleeping with the enemy. [Here are the details.] Words: 539 So says Dominique de Kevelioc de Bailleul ([url]www.beaconequityresearch.com[/url])**in an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!), has further edited ([* ]), abridged (…) and*reformatted*below**for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author's views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included so as to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.*The author*goes on to say: In a piece of news that certainly delights GATA, Wikileaks p...


The Best of the Week

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 01:57 AM PDT

Synopsis: 

Welcome to the weekend edition of Casey's Daily Dispatch, a compilation of our favorite stories from the week for the time-stressed readers.

Dear Reader,

Welcome to the weekend edition of Casey Daily Dispatch, a compilation of our favorite stories from the week for the time-stressed readers.

Of course, if you want to read all of the Daily Dispatches from the week, you may do so in the archives at CaseyResearch.com.


Unclogging the System

By the Casey Research Energy Team

Two proposed pipelines that together have the potential to unclog the overburdened pipes from the oil sands – and in doing so provide America with a friendly, stable, and growing source of oil – took significant steps forward last week.

The State Department gave a crucial green light to the proposed Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry heavy oil from Canada's oil sands across the Great Plains to terminals in Oklahoma and the Gulf Coast. And Calgary-based Enbridge announced that it has lined up enough shippers to fill its proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which would move bitumen from Canada's oil sands to the west coast for transport to Asian markets.

Together, Keystone XL and Northern Gateway would alleviate the mounting issue of how to get crude oil from the oil sands out to market. Oil sands production is very much on the rise: Canada produced 1.5 million barrels of crude a day from the oil sands in 2010 and plans to expand that total to 2.2 million barrels a day in 2015 and 3.7 million barrels a day by 2025.

The crude oil extracted from the sands is thick and heavy. Refining this bitumen (as it is known) requires heavy oil facilities, of which there are none in Canada. At present bitumen is sent to heavy oil refineries in America's Midwest, but the pipelines that run from the oil sands to Oklahoma will reach maximum capacity in as little as four years. At that point oil sands producers will be stuck with increasing volumes of bitumen and no way to get it to market… that is, unless another pipeline or two gets built.

The Northern Gateway pipeline would bypass refining altogether, sending crude bitumen to the west coast to be loaded onto tankers and taken across the Pacific to Asian markets. The company looking to build the line – Enbridge – says companies have fully subscribed to long-term service on both the main line (a 525,000-barrel-per-day pipe running from Alberta to the west coast town of Kitimat) as well as on the subsidiary (a smaller line that would bring imported condensates inland). In its announcement, Enbridge did not identify which companies signed on to use the C$5.5-billion facility, but Chinese refining giant Sinopec says it is on board with the project.

Enbridge called the shipper agreements a "major step forward" for the project. The company says the option of selling crude oil to Asia, instead of only selling to the United States, will enable Canadian producers to command a better price for their product.

Then there's Keystone XL. The Keystone pipeline, which started operations in mid-2010, crosses the border from Manitoba into North Dakota, then traverses South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri to terminate in Illinois. In February of this year another terminus was added in Cushing, Oklahoma. But even with two end points, the line can still carry only 591,000 barrels of oil a day.

Owner TransCanada wants to expand the pipeline in two steps. Phase I would see a new, 2,700-kilometer line run from Alberta through Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska, meeting up with the current line in Steele City. The second phase would connect the entire system to the Gulf Coast by adding a line from Cushing, Oklahoma, to Houston.

Map courtesy of TransCanada.com

Both phases are equally important. Phase I more than doubles the volume of crude that TransCanada can move from the oil sands to the Midwest: With two pipelines the Keystone system would be able to move 1.3 million barrels of oil daily, compared to 591,000 barrels a day in one pipeline now. Phase II connects the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, preventing oil sands bitumen from overwhelming the heavy oil facilities in Oklahoma by creating access to the heavy oil facilities of the Gulf Coast.

Connecting Cushing to the Gulf Coast would likely also help to bring American oil prices in line with international prices. American crude oil is benchmarked by the price at Cushing, which is known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude. The most-watched oil price internationally is Brent North Sea crude, which is traded in London. The key difference between the two is that Brent oil is seaborne, while WTI crude is landlocked. As such, the impending crude oil glut from the oil sands has been pushing WTI prices down, while Brent prices have been climbing because of instability in the Middle East and North Africa.

However, stabilizing the price difference between WTI and Brent is a side benefit of the Keystone XL expansion. The main benefit for America is oil-supply stability. The fact is, Canada represents a lone bright spot in America's oil-supply picture. The world's biggest oil consumer relies on unfriendly, unstable, or declining producers such as Nigeria, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia for almost half of its supplies. So, while buying oil from the Canadian oil sands may be environmentally controversial, the oil sands actually represent America's only significant friendly, stable, and growing source of oil.

TransCanada is also promoting the economic benefits of the US$7-billion project. More than 900 US companies supply equipment to oil sands operators, selling everything from heavy equipment to customized software. Those supply contracts will dwindle without new pipelines to move oil sands oil to market. The pipeline would also generate 20,000 unionized construction jobs and hundreds of millions of dollars in tax and other revenues for the six states through which it would pass.

Five of the six governors support the pipeline expansion. The sixth, Nebraska Republican Dave Heineman, only opposes the pipeline's routing through the Ogallala aquifer. The project enjoys strong bipartisan support on Capitol Hill, where the House of Representatives last month voted 279 to 147 in favor of a resolution calling on the administration to make a decision by November 1.

The recent decision by the State Department is important: It decided that the benefits of importing oil from a friendly neighbor outweigh the potential costs of the pipeline, including environmental costs. Final approval, however, has to come from the president, who has to decide if the project is in the nation's economic, political, and environmental interest. Obama's decision will not come before the end of the year, after public hearings and consultations with other federal agencies. But with the State Department concluding that "there would be no significant impacts to most resources along the pipeline's corridor," it seems likely the president will give it the go-ahead.

Many environmentalists are dismayed at the prospect of building a major new pipeline to bring "dirty" oil sands crude into the US. Granted, when companies first started extracting oil from the oil sands, the process was energy and water intensive. Things have improved significantly over the last 20 years, however, with carbon emissions from oil sands production and refining down roughly 40% compared to 1990. Oil sands crudes emit more carbon dioxide (during the full cycle, from production to tailpipe exhaust) than many Saudi Arabian, Mexican, and Venezuelan crudes; but the emissions are comparable or even lower than those from heavy crudes produced in California, Nigeria, and the Middle East, all of which are pumped at American gas stations.

As for Northern Gateway, the other proposed pipeline from the oil sands west to the Pacific coast, it is still at an earlier stage of the permitting process (though its process is simpler because the proposed route does not cross an international border). The proposal is currently under review by the National Energy Board, with hearings set to begin next year. Those hearings will likely be boisterous, as environmentalists and First Nations groups are strongly opposed. They say an oil spill at or near the pipeline terminus and loading port of Kitimat would be disastrous for the delicate northern coastal ecosystem, and therefore argue that the benefits are not worth the potential cost.

[To profit maximally from energy developments like this requires keeping up with all the news. A subscription to Casey Energy Report is invaluable to energy investors. Try it risk-free for ninety days.]


"Unlimited" Spelled Backwards Is "Zimbabwe"

By Kevin Brekke

With the possible exception of those truly off the grid, everyone by now is aware that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) announced with a Matterhorn-sized megaphone that it will no longer tolerate the franc trading below 1.20 to the euro. The reaction of the markets was predictable: The EURCHF cross zoomed higher and ruined a perfectly respectable day for forex traders caught on the wrong side of that trade.

Predictably, the move in the franc reached its price apogee at just above the SNB's announced tolerance threshold of 1.20 per euro. The move signaled that currency traders had renounced a belief in free-market gravity for the gospel of currency intervention and a belief that the SNB can keep the exchange rate in a higher orbit.

During the SNB's short sermon, and to let everyone – everyone – know that there is some backbone behind its confessed impatience, it was commanded that unlimited quantities of euros be purchased to achieve the mission's objectives.

Unlimited. Some words just seem to possess powerful latent tendencies that, when triggered, can cause all manner of, well, unlimited nonsense.

The SNB had barely exited the pulpit before unlimited speculation ensued about what "unlimited" might mean. The franc had yet to complete a single rotation when talk of the SNB buying $300 billion, $400 billion, or more, was breaking across the news.

For a country with a population smaller than Los Angeles and a GDP of roughly US$525 billion, those are really big numbers. And "unlimited" is even bigger than that… so big that it will likely grab the attention of a political party or two and further annoy one party in particular.

In reaction to the SNB's July revelation that it lost US$36 billion attempting to weaken the franc, the SVP (the largest political party in Switzerland) has launched a legislative campaign to limit the autonomy of the SNB, among other changes. The announced re-intervention in the currency markets by the Swiss central bank will probably add to momentum behind the initiative.

Beyond politics, though, lies the question of legality. The conduct of the SNB is codified in the Swiss Constitution, where its primary mandate is to pursue a monetary policy that ensures price stability.

History teaches that when a country pursues a policy of money printing to cure whatever ails, the outcome is never that of a stable price level, no matter how noble the intent or grand the design. But who knows? Maybe this time it will be different. Maybe the SNB will successfully chart a path to a new era in currency protection. Whatever the plan, they aren't going to let a barbarous relic like their constitution get in the way.

In the meantime, if anyone is planning a vacation to Europe now looks like as good a time as any to convert some dollars into francs. I know I will be. And whether you're enjoying a fondue in Bern or a baguette in Barcelona, don't forget to keep one eye on the heavens. When the SNB's Operation Unlimited inevitably fails and the franc loses its orbit, the show will be worth watching.

[Fiat currency manipulations will continue – even escalate – as the race to not be the first to fail begins in earnest. Long the world's reserve currency, the US dollar is arguably the most besieged currency today. Learn how you can protect yourself from its slow demise by attending a free, online event: The American Debt Crisis will be held at 2 p.m. EDT on September 14. Register now for this life-changing presentation.]


Gold Stocks Prognosis: Catalyst, Please

By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD

It's probably the #1 question on every gold investor's mind right now: Why are gold stocks underperforming gold? Aren't they supposed to bring us leverage to the gold price?

Yes, they are, and their performance been both disappointing and puzzling. There are some exceptions, to be sure, but in the majority of cases the stocks are lagging the metal. And it's been happening for most of the year. What's going on?

I think part of the answer lies in the state of our current environment. Recent headlines and developments around the globe have ratcheted up fear… from the S&P's downgrade to European bank solvency, from fears of another recession to worse-than-expected unemployment. The nervous climate has pushed investors toward gold for safety, simultaneously reducing the demand for gold equities.

You don't say, "Hey, I need a new iPad!" when you live in hurricane alley and a storm is coming. You make sure you've got protection for your family. Likewise, fears of Europe's debt problems ruining their economy don't exactly make investors run out and buy Barrick. They buy gold.

First, let's get a handle on how gold producers are performing relative to the metal. Here's a chart that logs the weekly performance of GDX (the Gold Miners ETF) in relation to GLD (the metal ETF). Positive numbers represent the percentage by which GDX outperformed gold that week; negative numbers signal how much it underperformed the metal.

(Click on image to enlarge)

As you can see, while there have been periods this year when gold stocks have outperformed the metal, roughly half the time they haven't kept pace with surging gold prices. This is not the picture of an asset that's supposed to bring a leveraged return to gold.

So what's going to move them? If I were a physician and gold stocks were my patient, I'd say, "Take two catalysts and call me in the morning." Like some of these…

Less Fear, More Greed: We probably need a shift in the investing climate before gold stocks excel like we want and expect. An environment full of fear will draw investors toward safe havens and away from stocks. We don't necessarily need a "roaring twenties" type of atmosphere (though that would help); we just need one where there's a lack of constant bad news. Once investors feel the sharks have left the beach, they'll be more apt to look for ways to gain a higher return than metal can bring.

What if Doug Casey is right about a Greater Depression, and fear is high for years? I think the better gold stocks still outperform in that environment. For starters, investors may fear that other assets won't make much money; this has been the case with the S&P this year… and bonds could be next. A shift into stocks could also take place when inflation turns higher, as investors scramble to earn a higher real return. Last, history has shown that the natural progression is to move from the metal to the equities in a bull market. I think that's our future, sooner or later.

Keep in mind the good news here: The gold you own is performing exactly as it should be in response to current events. We own gold for protection against the very things for which it's supposed to provide shelter: failing currencies, lagging economies, and fear of inflation. This is proof that holding gold has been the right call and will continue to be the right call for the foreseeable future.

I don't know when the shift from fear to greed will take place, but I'm convinced it will. And I suspect that the change in sentiment could be sudden.

Competitive Dividend Yields: Many gold companies have increased their dividend payments over the past year. In fact, every gold producer in the BIG GOLD portfolio except one has initiated or increased its dividend this year, many of them several times. Growing dividends could raise the eyebrows of investors and broaden the investor base.

That said, this is not a catalyst that will kick in next week. The current dividend yield of the gold industry is 0.75% (GDX is 0.70%); while this is up significantly since 2001, it is still less than half the S&P average of about 2.0%. However, as yields approach the levels of the broader market, institutional investors will be drawn to our little sector. Gold stocks could become core holdings, opening the door to an entirely new audience of investors. That's a group that could light a fire under prices.

Governments: The CME hiked margin requirements on gold twice recently and five times on silver earlier this year. At some point a hike could be one too many, prompting investors to slow down on gold and turn to the undervalued equities to capture bigger returns. Another catalyst could be a government announcing they're lowering tax rates on miners – a shock in the current rapacious environment that could see new money pour into the sector overnight.

The Usual Suspects: The usual sparks could ignite interest in gold stocks: a company announcing a large gold discovery… a sudden or unexpected surge in inflation… the gold price soaring 20% overnight due to some world-changing event... the public recognizing the potential in gold stocks and not just gold. Or how about a well-known investor or analyst outside the gold industry announcing he's buying gold stocks? Could you imagine the impact on our tiny sector if, say, Warren Buffett declared he was adding gold companies to his portfolio? (He's not exactly pro-gold, but you get the idea.)

I'm not saying any of these things will come to pass or are imminent. There are certainly other potential catalysts, too. My point is that sooner or later investors will be drawn – or perhaps even forced – into buying gold stocks.

The investment implications here are twofold. First, if I'm right, then the strategy should be to buy when shares are relatively cheap and hold for the duration of the bull market. You may think we'd suffer "opportunity loss" if we have to wait too long, but that could be a dangerous game; you could buy after they take off and miss out on some of the easier gains. Further, I don't know of another sector that is both cheap and imminently poised to break out. The second implication is that corrections wouldn't be a time to get out, but a time to consider getting in.

The ultimate prognosis, in my opinion, is that gold stocks are headed much higher. Sooner or later a catalyst will ignite interest in our sector, and the rush will be on. Now is the time to build positions in the stocks you want to own.

[Just how cheap are gold stocks right now? And which stocks are the best to buy? The just-released issue of BIG GOLD shows which gold and silver companies have not only the best value, but are the ones with the strongest growth going forward. Your timing couldn't be better for a trial subscription, as we provide a full portfolio review of all our equity recommendations. Check it out risk-free for ninety days.]


The World Trade Center

By Vedran Vuk

Though we're soon to be reminded of 9/11 with another anniversary, I don't think that many folks deeply consider why the World Trade Center was attacked. I don't mean this statement in a geopolitical or foreign policy sense. Most people have some clear opinion from that angle. I'm specifically referring to the prime target – the World Trade Center (WTC). Why not any other buildings? Timothy McVeigh's bombing in Oklahoma City sent shockwaves around the country as well. The terrorists didn't have to choose the World Trade Center complex.

For one thing, the WTC was a symbol of America and New York City. Yes, that's clearly obvious; however, it's symbolic in a very special way. The Washington Monument and the Lincoln Memorial are symbolic too, but the symbolism of the World Trade Center was organic. It was an office and transportation complex actually producing wealth in the US economy. The symbolism was not a matter of design, as with monuments in D.C.; it originated from the buildings' functions.

Another thing to consider is the reason for the WTC's location in New York City. Clearly, the city needed office space, but who in particular was inside the Twin Towers? With the help of a list from CNN, I created a pie chart of the percentage of square feet leased by various industries.

(Click on image to enlarge)

With the financials and insurance combined, almost 71% was leased by some aspect of the financial industry. On the skyline, the buildings were a symbol of America's economic strength, but on the inside, the strength emanated from the financial industry.

This view of America's economic strength is rarely presented to us in politics, history books, or the media. We're always supposed to think of America's strength coming from tec


Gold Stocks Prognosis: Catalyst, Please

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 01:54 AM PDT

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/gold-stocks-prognosis-catalyst-please&ppref=TBP422ED0911A It's probably the #1 question on every gold investor's mind right now: Why are gold stocks underperforming gold? Aren't they supposed to bring us leverage to the gold price? Yes, they are, and their performance been both disappointing and puzzling. There are some exceptions, to be sure, but in the majority of cases the [...]


More on Solyndra – The next move

Posted: 10 Sep 2011 12:37 AM PDT


In any Chapter 11 filing the senior lenders have preference. This means that if there are any liquidation proceeds Senior Creditors get their money back first. It is important to note that those same senior lenders have significant influence regarding how the company's assets are disposed of.

In the case of Solyndra, the senior lender is also the largest equity owner, Argonaut Ventures, an investment vehicle controlled by George Kaiser. Argonaut got the preferential position when it agreed to make a $75mm term loan to Solyndra back in February of 2011.

Note: DOE representatives participated in the structuring of the Argonaut term loan. The DOE specifically granted the preferred position. Six months ago the good folks at the DOE had to have known that Solyndra was a sinking ship. If we later hear that either the DOE or the President were shocked and surprised that Solyndra went into the tank, then we know they are lying.

In the layer cake of creditors the highest tier is the DIP (Debtor in Possession). This loan is only granted after a chapter filing. It is approved by the court and as a result stands first in line. The DIP lender has significant sway in the timing and the manner of assets sales. Not surprisingly, the proposed provider of the DIP is Argonaut. (The deal calls for a 15% rate and an $80,000 front end fee. Not bad for a four-week loan)


This means that Argonaut is in control two ways, the senior loan and the DIP. They have both a belt and suspenders, they are wearing the pants in this deal and their pants are not going to fall down.

The Debtor has filed a plan with the court. The CFO, W.G. Stover Jr, has filed this petition. This document is the company's plan for what should happen next.

Note: Solyndra is being advised in these matters by the cream of the crop, Gibson Dunn and Crucher. GDC is a very high dollar firm. They typically represent private money interests. I would have expected GDC to represent Argonaut. The fact that they are representing Solyndra is another question mark in this questionable deal.

The plan put forward is a four-week sale of the company. The logic behind this very rapid schedule is that Solyndra is still burning cash at the rate of $1mm a week. How long will the $4mm DIP financing last? Four weeks. The terms of the DIP makes it a sure thing that Solyndra is going to be sold ASAP. That sounds good. But not for the DOE.

The one-month period is a very short time frame. The likely result will be that no serious alternative buyer will appear. Should that happen, the senior creditor will get all of the assets of the company at the end of 30 days. That would be Argonaut. It's possible that Argonaut will end up owning a company that lists $850mm in assets for less than $100mm.

A bankruptcy attorney who is knowledgeable about the Solyndra case has contacted me. I thought I'd share his thoughts with you. His words describe the situation much better than I:

Two things that jump out at me from the Affidavit - the Tranche A lenders (Argonaut) are offering to be the DIP lender. The terms contained in the DIP agreement usually are the vehicle by which assets are stolen via seemingly innocuous terms that when taken as a whole, serve to control the bk process.


The secured lender will seek to bid for the assets via a credit bid, where they don't have to put new money on the table - their existing secured loan becomes their bid.


The second item that pops out is the dual track marketing - where they will market Solyndra as a whole and as pieces. The affidavit talks about a 4 week marketing runway - that's crazy short even for a podunk company with 1/10th the size. No one can do Due Diligence in 4 weeks. It leaves the DIP lender in a great spot.


The company will claim they don't have the cash to survive a longer marketing runway, and then they will throw their hands up 4 weeks later and say that the horrible deal on the table is the best and only option (and usually for good measure they throw in that it will preserve jobs, they always throw that in) - and at that point the shitty contrived deal is the only option.


Judge bangs his gavel down and the deal is done, and all legit, sanctioned by the bk process itself - everyone was given an opportunity to object in court, provided you can afford 700 dollar an hour bk attys.

Okay, after all of that you have to conclude that Argonaut stinks in this. They are sitting in the catbird seat with the preferential position. They have the courts (and the lawyers) on their side. What possible option could the US Government have to stop this from happening? That's easy. All they have to do is accuse the existing management of fraud.

No BK judge would accept the petition of a former corporate officer regarding the disposition of company assets if that same officer was under the cloud of fraud charges. I think this must be the reason that both the company's headquarters and senior officers homes (including the CFO) have been raided by the FBI.

There is a clue in the affidavit submitted to the court:

"In Early August, Solyndra, certain holders of Tranche A Debt, and representatives of the DOE undertook negotiations regarding further restructuring that would allow Solyndra to attract necessary new investment. The negotiations over the terms of the further restructuring continued throughout August 2011."

It's simply not possible for the folks at DOE who were part of these meeting to not have realized that Solyndra was headed for the garbage can. They had to be lawyers. They are not stupid. There had to have been memos and phone calls back to the DOE and ultimately with the President during August on the failing status of the company. If during that month they had any suspicions of wrongdoing or fraud by the company's officers they would have alerted DOJ and the FBI raids would have happened before the company filed a bankruptcy petition. The business about raiding homes is just a smoke screen.

In the next week the Court will rule on the proposal for a four week sale and the $4mm Argonaut DIP. If that plan is approved, what is left of Solyndra will go to Argonaut and the US DOE will suffer a loss of 100% of its $528mm loan.

As part of this process DOE will file a brief. That brief has to be a smoking gun that forces the judge to deny the company's/Argonauts plan. That brief HAS to have some teeth in it. The only teeth that has merit is that the people who ran the company were crooks and lied to the DOE. The problem with that contention is that there is so much evidence to the contrary.

It should be interesting to see what the DOE has to say. It will be very interesting to see how the judge rules. I'll be watching/writing.

.


Sell Euro to Buy Australian Dollar

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 11:59 PM PDT

Given that many know Merk Investments as "euro bulls", arguing that the euro can thrive despite all the turmoil in the Eurozone, we wanted to share with our investors and the public that in our hard currency strategy, currently with over $700 million in assets, we sold over U.S. $90 million worth of euros late Thursday to re-allocate to the Australian dollar. This re-allocation was an acceleration of a recent trend to deploy euro holdings elsewhere. The strategy is now underweight in euros.


Silver Update 9/8/11 – Wimpy Economics

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:39 PM PDT

From BrotherJohnF Filed under: BrotherJohnF, bullion traders, Buy Gold, Buy Silver, COMEX, commodity futures trading, commodity trades, Corrupt government, currency systems, Economic crisis, euro system, European banks, european market turmoil, federal reserve chairman ben bernanke, federal reserve system, financial repression, financial turmoil, futures market, global financial crisis, gold bullion, gold currency, gold price, Gold price [...]


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9/11 and the War on Terror: Polls Show What People Think 10 Years Later

Posted: 09 Sep 2011 06:00 PM PDT


#000099;">Polls Show that Americans Think We Overreacted, Overspent and Weakened Ourselves Through the War on Terror

As the Brooking Institution reported yesterday, Americans that the government overreacted and overspent in reaction to 9/11:

These are a summary of findings of a new poll conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) and the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland.

 

***

 

Six in ten Americans believe that that the United States weakened its economy by overspending in its responses to the 9/11 attacks. In particular, respondents felt this was especially true of the U.S. mission in Iraq. Two out of three Americans perceive that over the decade since 9/11, U.S. power and influence in the world has declined. This view is highly correlated with the belief that the United States overspent in its post-9/11 response efforts – the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

***

 

At this point, a large majority (73%) wants the United States to reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan, but less than half (44%) want troops withdrawn completely.

 

Fifty-five percent say that the United States has spent too many resources in the Iraq war, while a plurality of 49% called the Iraq war a mistake (45% right decision). This criticism is a bit lower than other polls that asked similar questions in 2010 and found a majority ranging from 51 to 62% saying that it was not the right decision.

 

Support for the decision to go to war is highly correlated with beliefs held by substantial and undiminishing minorities that Iraq was providing support to al Qaeda (46%) and either had a WMD program or actual WMDs (47%). Among those with such beliefs, large majorities say the war was the right thing while among those without such beliefs large majorities have the opposite views.

 

A modest majority (53%) believes that the U.S. should withdraw its troops according to schedule even if the Iraqi government asks the US to stay another year.

 

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A clear majority (61%) says that the United States should not take sides in its efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while just 27% want the United States to lean toward Israel (5% toward Palestinians).

(Incidentally, top American military leaders agree, saying that the war on terror has weakened our national security).

Rasmussen has repeatedly noted that Americans are strongly opposed to further military or other types of intervention in Arab countries:

As with the recent turmoil in Egypt, most Americans (67%) say the United States should leave the situation in the Arab countries alone. Just 17% say the United States should get more directly involved in the political situation there, but another 17% are not sure.

This was true for Libya. And it is true elsewhere. For example, the overwhelming majority of Americans are also opposed to intervention in Syria.

#000099;">Polls Show Widespread Doubt About Official Explanations

The results of polls on peoples' beliefs about 9/11 around the world might surprise you:

  • In its January 2011 issue, the popular German magazine "Welt der Wunder" published the results of a poll conducted by the Emnid institute on 1005 respondents. The poll indicated that nearly 90% percent of Germans are convinced that the government of the United States is not telling the whole truth about the September 11 attacks 
  • A new poll conducted in France by HEC Paris shows that 58% of French people doubt the official version of 9/11, and 49% believe the U.S. government might have intentionally allowed the attacks to happen
  • A Zogby poll conducted in August 2007 found that 51% of Americans want Congress to probe Bush/Cheney regarding the 9/11 attacks, two-thirds (67%) of Americans say the 9/11 Commission should have investigated the collapse of World Trade Center Building 7
  • A poll conducted by CNN-IBN in August 2007 found that only 2 out of 5 of those polled in India – the world's second most populous country – believe that al-Qaeda is responsible for the 9/11 attacks
  • Indeed, a poll taken by World Public Opinion, a collaborative project of research centers in various countries managed by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland, College Park, polled 16,063 people in 17 nations outside of the United States during the summer of 2008. They found that majorities in only 9 of the 17 countries believe Al Qaeda carried out the attacks. The poll showed that in the world's most populous country – China – only 32% believed that Al Qaeda carried out the attacks.


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