saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Fed to Keep Rates at Record Lows at Least Through Mid-2013
- Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide
- Platinum Cheaper Than Gold: A Rare Opportunity
- Gold and Silver Update
- JP Morgan Warns Gold to Go Parabolic and Rise to $2,500 By Year End
- Is This It? Or Can They Fool Us Again?
- S&P just slashed the ratings on thousands of municipal bonds
- Gold's historic rally continues: Now closing in on $1,800
- 100% of Commodiites Green BUT.....
- Silver's blowing it hard!
- WE ARE WATCHING HISTORY BEING MADE
- Ivory Coast encouraging gold mining
- knock knock
- An Acceleration in Gold has Begun
- Every PM up except the dog
- 'Blood on the street' as investors dump stocks
- U.S. Could Run Off With Other Nations' Gold: Jim Rickards Tells CNBC
- Gold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% Gain
- More Selling!
- Economic Mess and Gold
- Vietnam Central Bank allows imports of 5 tons of Gold to stabilize the market
- Who will put the gold questions to central banks?
- Gold Hits Fresh Records, Fed Needs to "Do What It Takes to Cause Inflation
- Stock Markets in Free Fall, Gold Breaks Through $1,770: What to Do?
- JP Morgan sees Gold at $2.500 by year end
- Hoarding gold beats charts, technical analysis over 25 years
- The Price of Gold on December 30, 2011
- David Morgan: $75 Silver Looming
- Asia Getting Hammered, Discouraging Report on ECB Commitment (Updated: Europe Opens Up, US Futures Rise; Second Update: Rally Fizzles))
- Jim Rickards – Tea Party, AAA Status & Gold
| Fed to Keep Rates at Record Lows at Least Through Mid-2013 Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:20 AM PDT  Click here ... and this I spotted on the T/S of SLV at 3:30  Thats a large print. Thats it. Just a weird print at the lows.  |
| Bullish Outlook With Caution as a Guide Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:19 AM PDT |
| Platinum Cheaper Than Gold: A Rare Opportunity Posted: 09 Aug 2011 06:11 AM PDT By Richard Bloch: It's not a sure thing, especially when commodities and stocks are so volatile, but when platinum trades at parity to gold, selling some gold and buying platinum looks very attractive. First of all, it's extremely rare for the ratio between the two to dip below 1.0. With platinum trading at about 1,738.4 and gold at about 1,747 as of Tuesday morning, the ratio is (or was) below 1. Here's a chart showing the ratio going back about 30 years. Yes, the ratio could dip further. Based on history, It could spend years trading lower or near parity to gold, but I think there's a better chance that platinum rises against gold. One strategy might be to invest in the Palladium ETF (PPLT) and purchase put options in the gold ETF (GLD) as a hedge. It's different this time. Yeah, sure, you've heard that before. But platinum is more than a Complete Story » |
| Posted: 09 Aug 2011 01:51 AM PDT  |
| JP Morgan Warns Gold to Go Parabolic and Rise to $2,500 By Year End Posted: 09 Aug 2011 01:50 AM PDT |
| Is This It? Or Can They Fool Us Again? Posted: 09 Aug 2011 01:43 AM PDT Dollar Collapse |
| S&P just slashed the ratings on thousands of municipal bonds Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:53 AM PDT From Bloomberg: Standard & Poor's lowered the AAA ratings of thousands of municipal bonds tied to the federal government, including housing securities and debt backed by leases, following its Aug. 5 downgrade of the U.S. The rating company assigned AA+ scores to securities in the $2.9 trillion municipal bond market including school-construction bonds in Irving, Texas; debt backed by a federal lease in Miami; and a bond series for multifamily housing in Oceanside, California. Olayinka Fadahunsi, an S&P spokesman, said he couldn't provide a dollar figure on the affected debt. S&P also cut ratings on securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, prerefunded issues and munis repaid by using federal assets, also known as defeased or escrow bonds. No state general-obligation ratings were affected and the company said some may remain unchanged. "It's expected, but nobody is happy about it," Bud Byrnes, chief executive officer of Encino, California-based RH Investment Corp., said in a telephone interview. "No one that I know thinks it was justified to cut the U.S. bonds to AA+. Once that happened, you knew that any prerefunded bonds or escrowed bonds would be downgraded too. It's a domino effect." Byrnes said funds required to invest in AAA bonds would be most affected by the downgrades and may be forced to liquidate some holdings. "They will have a hard time replacing that yield," he said. 'Logical and Coherent' Chris Mier, a managing director at Loop Capital Markets LLC in Chicago who follows the municipal bond market, said the downgrades made sense, given the federal rating cut. "In order to keep the system logical and coherent, there are going to be a lot of downgrades," Mier said in a conference call with reporters and clients. Matt Fabian, a managing director of Concord, Massachusetts-based Municipal Market Advisors, a financial research company, said in a telephone interview that he expected "hundreds and hundreds of municipal downgrades," which may hurt investor confidence. "Treasurys may be able to shake off a real impact from the downgrade," he said. "Munis, I'm less sure about." S&P cited politics in negotiations to increase the debt ceiling and said lawmakers failed to reduce spending enough. 'Least Disruptive' The company said on July 21 that a U.S. downgrade based on a failure to come up with a "realistic and credible" plan to reduce the budget deficit would be the "least disruptive" scenario for municipal ratings. That's because it would mean Congress avoided making significant cuts to the funding of municipal credits not directly linked to the federal government, S&P said. Top-rated state and local governments wouldn't automatically lose their top scores, the company said. It rates the general-obligation debt of nine states AAA. The country's "decentralized governmental structure" calls for an independent review of state and local government credits, 3.9 percent of which have AAA ratings, S&P said in a report. State and municipal governments that depend less on the national government for revenue and that manage their own books well enough to weather declines in federal funding may retain AAA ratings, S&P said. The company didn't name such states or municipal governments in the report. Issuance Slows Municipal issuance has fallen amid the U.S. debt-ceiling impasse. The slump and signs of a slowing economy helped drive tax-exempt yields to the lowest this year. Scheduled debt sales total about $2.8 billion this week, the slowest August week since 2003, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. For the municipal market, "the key is supply and demand," more than ratings downgrades, said Ed Reinoso, chief executive officer of Castleton Partners in New York, which manages about $250 million for individuals. The S&P action itself "was almost cosmetic," he said in a telephone interview. "It doesn't seem to have much impact." Yields on top-rated 10-year tax-exempt debt fell to 2.39 percent, the lowest since October, according to a Bloomberg Valuation index. S&P, in lowering the U.S. from AAA on Aug. 5, cited the nation's political process and said lawmakers failed to reduce spending enough in their deal to raise the debt ceiling. Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their top ratings on Aug. 2, the day President Barack Obama signed the bill raising the debt ceiling and avoiding a default. Similar to Moody's Any state and local government downgrades from S&P may be similar to potential rating cuts Moody's mapped out last month, DeGroot said in his report. Moody's on July 13 said a possible U.S. downgrade would affect 7,000 municipal credits totaling $130 billion that are directly linked to U.S. credit. Moody's also said it would review indirectly linked debt and last month said it may downgrade five of the 15 states it ranks Aaa because of their vulnerability to cuts in federal spending. The company wound up reaffirming those top ratings last week, assigning a negative outlook. Officials in Maryland and Virginia, two states with economies tightly bound to the federal government, said they hadn't heard from S&P since the U.S. downgrade and didn't think any moves were imminent. Patti Konrad, the director of debt management for Maryland, said it's unclear what risks any federal budget cuts would deal to her state's economy. "I would think S&P would want to take some time," she said. "We haven't heard anything from them." Ric Brown, Virginia's finance secretary, said his office hasn't spoken to S&P in the wake of the U.S. credit rating cut. He said he anticipates that any move affecting the state would be based on how federal budget cuts would ripple through the economy, rather than any automatic triggers. "It's probably going to take a little bit of a while until they know specifically what's on the table to assess that," he said. To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Frier in New York at sfrier1@bloomberg.net; Michelle Kaske in New York at mkaske@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Tannenbaum at mtannen@bloomberg.net. More on muni bonds: Muni bond megabear Whitney defends her crisis warnings Your state could be crushed by a U.S. government downgrade Forget Treasurys... This is the sector that could be hurt most by the S&P downgrade |
| Gold's historic rally continues: Now closing in on $1,800 Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:42 AM PDT From Bloomberg: Gold advanced to records in London and New York as the global rout in equities and commodities deepened on concern the economic slowdown will worsen after Standard & Poor's cut the U.S. credit rating. Bullion surged 24 percent this year, heading for an 11th year of gains, as the sovereign-debt crisis and a faltering economy boosted demand for the metal as a protection of wealth. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold surged 1.4 percent to a record 2,216.8 tons by yesterday, data compiled by Bloomberg showed, an 11th straight day of gains. "The much-dreaded AAA downgrade did happen after all, but the broader market was already to an extent in sell-off mode, pricing in sovereign default risks in the euro zone and the U.S.," Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London, wrote in a report. "The market remains well-supported while macro concerns over the stagnant economic recovery and fears of further sovereign downgrades will keep the market on edge." Gold for immediate-delivery rose $47.57, or 2.8 percent, to $1,767.10 an ounce at 10:33 a.m. in London after gaining as much as 3.5 percent to an all-time high of $1,780.10, making the metal costlier than platinum for the first time since 2008. The price yesterday jumped 3.4 percent, the biggest daily advance since January 2009. Gold futures for December delivery in New York advanced $54.20, or 3.2 percent, to $1,767.40 an ounce after earlier surging as much as 4 percent to a record $1,782.50 an ounce. S&P cut the long-term U.S. rating one level to AA+ from AAA on Aug. 5. The agency described the outlook as "negative" and criticized the nation's political system for failing to adequately address deficit reduction. Fiscal Pressures The U.S. rating may be cut to AA within two years if spending reductions are lower than agreed to, interest rates rise or "new fiscal pressures" result in higher general government debt, New York-based S&P said. "The market is now worried about another global recession," Natalie Robertson, a commodity analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said by phone from Melbourne. "The S&P downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has fueled a lot of those concerns and the market is also focusing on the European situation." The S&P 500 index lost 6.7 percent yesterday as all 500 stocks fell for the first time since Bloomberg began tracking data in 1996. Yesterday's rout wiped out about $2.5 trillion in global equity values, extending the total loss in market values since July 26 to $7.8 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs Forecasts Gold advanced to a premium over platinum for the first time since December 2008 as demand for a haven outweighed the appeal of platinum used mostly in catalytic converters for the car industry, at risk from a slowing global economy. Bullion for delivery in June 2012 jumped as much as 2.6 percent today to a record 4,399 yen per gram before settling at 4,348 yen on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecasts for gold futures to $1,730 in six months and $1,860 in a year based on expectations for real U.S. interest rates to stay lower for longer. The previous estimates were $1,635 and $1,730, the bank said in a report dated Aug. 7. Asian stocks tumbled today, with the MSCI Asia Pacific index sinking 1.6 percent, paring losses of as much as 5.5 percent. Oil fell as much as 6.9 percent in New York, dropping below $80 a barrel, to the lowest in more than 10 months. "The global financial crisis only happened a few years ago," Robertson said. "I think everyone is very aware of that fact and there are a lot of linkages with what's happening now with what happened three years ago." Silver for immediate delivery fell 2.5 percent to $38.05 an ounce. Spot palladium gained 0.8 percent to $724.25 an ounce, while platinum for immediate delivery gained 0.4 percent to $1,723.75 an ounce. – With assistance from Phoebe Sedgman in Melbourne and Jae Hur in Singapore. Editors: John Deane, Claudia Carpenter To contact the reporters on this story: Tony C. Dreibus in London at tdreibus@bloomberg.net; Madelene Pearson in Mumbai at mpearson1@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net. More on gold: Eric Sprott: Why gold is soaring now The stars could be aligning for a spectacular gold rally This chart shows gold will continue its meteoric rise after the debt ceiling is raised |
| 100% of Commodiites Green BUT..... Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:38 AM PDT Crude +1 ICE +.089 Nat gas +.48 gasoline +1.44 Gold +1.03 Platimun +1.16 copper +.064 corn +.22 wheat +.29 soybean +.78 hogs +.30 cotton +1.82 sugar + 2.85 Lumber LUMBER is even fucking green .41 SILVER -3.43 % Welcome to the big leagues.  |
| Posted: 09 Aug 2011 12:35 AM PDT Green arrowa in the metals, but silver down more than a dollar? What in the hell? I'm not one for the manipulation camp, but this stinks as very odd. Especially, in this type of market. |
| WE ARE WATCHING HISTORY BEING MADE Posted: 08 Aug 2011 11:16 PM PDT We are truly seeing history being made as the stock market moves down into its yearly cycle bottom. The last time the market was this oversold was after 9/11.  Breadth has moved to levels even more extreme than the crash of 2008.   It seems like a great many folks have got it into their head that one is only allowed to make money in the precious metals market. Take a look at the long-term chart of gold though.  I don't care where I make money. Gold, silver, or stock market, it's all the same to me. Profits are profits. At this point I would rather put capital at risk in a severely oversold stock market than a parabolic gold market.        This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Ivory Coast encouraging gold mining Posted: 08 Aug 2011 11:00 PM PDT Experts have confirmed that Ivory Coast's government are ready to facilitate big increases in the country's gold mining activities. Energy and mining minister Adama Toungara stated that in ... |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2011 10:51 PM PDT Who's there? Silver. Silver who? Silver I get manipulated, beaten, and fucked constantly even when my big bad ass brother goes to $1800 overnight and even when Oil has a $5 reversal and even when we think the ben bernanke is going to QE3 us and even when the financial system is going to collapse and even when cocoa and CBOT wheat went green....fuck it. Someone should ask if JPM's Gold outlook is $2500 what is their silver outlook. The rains came last night, my patience is being tested.  |
| An Acceleration in Gold has Begun Posted: 08 Aug 2011 10:30 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2011 10:00 PM PDT Oh Man, why the panic? |
| 'Blood on the street' as investors dump stocks Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:30 PM PDT Stocks slumped and the gold price went through the roof yesterday as investors fled risk assets and bid up traditional safe-haven assets. In America, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 5.6%, ... |
| U.S. Could Run Off With Other Nations' Gold: Jim Rickards Tells CNBC Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:29 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverIn a serious attempt to service its clients better, Casey Research is in the process of changing servers...and if today's column arrived in your in-box a little on the late side...that's the reason. The good folks at CR [including me] are hoping/praying that any switch-over problems are confined to today...and as I've said before, if you want to avoid server delays completely, just bookmark the GSD home page...as it's posted there long before it gets into your in-box. Ed Just about everything that happened in the gold and silver market last week got trumped by the U.S. credit rating downgrade by Standard and Poor's last Friday afternoon, so I'm not going to spend any time discussing it. From that point on, it was a totally new ball game, as everyone [including this writer] watched the antics of the world's governments over the weekend just past...and waited for the Far East open on Sunday night in New York. In gold, the price jumped over twenty bucks at the open before settling down a bit. But around mid-morning Hong Kong time, gold resumed it's ascent, reaching its peak Far East price shortly before the London open at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time. From there, it got sold off...and the decline accelerated a bit the moment that Comex trading began. But once the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. Eastern [3:00 p.m. in London], the gold price was off and running to the upside once again...hitting it's high shortly after the Comex close...and shortly after trading began in the New York Access Market at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. From that point, it basically traded sideways until the Globex close at 5:15 p.m. Gold was up $53.80 on Monday and, for a change, gold traded up more than 2% on the day...a phenomena that I haven't witnessed in many years...as this 10-year price run-up has been a controlled retreat by the bullion banks. Volume was beyond monstrous...and I'll have more to say about this when I discuss the preliminary open interest numbers in 'The Wrap' section at the bottom of this column.
Once silver was up two bucks in mid-morning Far East trading on Monday, the big shorts showed up to cap the price, because if they hadn't, the silver price would have certainly run away on them. Ted Butler mentioned the fact that the big price run-up from the open on Sunday night could just as easily been caused by panic short covering, but that won't be known for certain until this Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...although their might be a hint of it in Monday's preliminary report...and I'll mention it in 'The Wrap'...but the release of that report is at least seven hours away from the time I'm writing this particular paragraph. Anyway, the high of the day was in about 10:45 a.m. Hong Kong time...and it was, as they say, all down hill from there. The slide in the silver price really picked up a head of steam minutes before the Comex open in New York but, just like in gold, that all ended abruptly at the London p.m. fix...but the subsequent rally in silver got pounded flat within thirty minutes...and by 11:00 a.m. Eastern, the low of the day [$38.41 spot] was in. Silver wasn't allowed over $39.50 spot for the rest of the Comex session...and the bullion banks peeled another fifty cents off the price in the thinly-traded electronic market that followed. Volume was very heavy.
The dollar got sold off over 45 basis points the moment that trading began at 5:00 p.m. on Sunday evening. Most of those loses were recovered in short order...but the dollar continued to work lower until the exact moment London opened at 3:00 a.m. Eastern...which was the point that the greenback was on the verge of breaking down below the 74.0 mark. From there, a rather spirited 'rally' began that ended at precisely 10:30 p.m. Eastern. The dollar headed sharply lower from there, with another 'rally' appearing out of the blue just moments before 12 noon in New York. The dollar worked its way slowly higher from that point, closing the day around 74.88...up about 40 basis points from Friday's close. I would bet a serious amount of money that the dollar would have crashed and burned if a mysterious not-for-profit buyer hadn't shown up at the London open...and at noon in New York. Here's the chart that shows the Sunday night open in New York...plus all the action from Monday.
The gold stocks got sold off into slightly negative territory on the open...but once the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. Eastern...the gold price turned on a dime...and the gold stocks moved sharply higher in sympathy. This happy state of affairs lasted until shortly after lunch in New York...and by 1:15 p.m. Eastern had begun to sell off sharply as the Dow plunged to new lows. The HUI closed the day down a smallish 0.16%...which you have to describe as a big win when you consider what happened to the general equity markets.
Although I'm tempted to read more into the gold share price plunge, I'll settle for what Dan Norcini had to say about it on his website yesterday...and I thank reader U.D. for sending me that link. Some, but not all, of the silver stocks were lower yesterday. I'm sure a lot of that had to do with the JPMorgan-led 'weakness' in the price of silver vs. its golden cousin...along with the late-day sell-off in the general equity markets...so I wouldn't read a lot into this, either. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index got creamed for 5.75% on the day.
(Click on image to enlarge) Ted mentioned to me yesterday that the '8 or less' traders in the Commercial category of the COT report had to put up about $1.5 billion in margin in their gold accounts yesterday. That's serious money. The CME's Daily Delivery Report for the Monday trading day showed that 77 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. Jefferies and ABN Amro delivered 76 of these contracts...and Barclays, the Bank of Nova Scotia and JPMorgan were the biggest receivers/stoppers. So far in the August delivery month...5,789 gold contracts have been delivered. That translates into 578,900 ounces of gold. Since the beginning of August...all the time that I was away in London...the GLD ETF had a whopping 1,489,964 ounces of gold deposited...and is now up to 42,115,309 troy ounces...less than 350,000 ounces away from its absolute high back in June of 2010. On the other hand, during the week that was, the SLV ETF had a net withdrawal of 807,455 troy ounces. It's obvious that the bullion banks' attempts to keep excitement out of all things silver has been successful...at least for the time being. But that hasn't slowed things down one bit over at the U.S Mint. For the first week of August, the mint has reported sales of 23,500 ounces of gold eagles...6,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...and a very chunky 1,039,000 silver eagles. Compared to July sales, August is really flying...and I hope, dear reader, that you are getting your share, as time is most certainly running out. There was no in/out activity in silver over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday that's worth talking about in this column...and I can tell from the Friday total figure...10,294,751 troy ounces...that the net activity for the week that was, didn't show a lot of change. Here's what silver analyst Ted Butler had to say about all this in his Saturday column... "Not that silver investors are showing signs of collective selling; the evidence suggests the opposite. Yesterday [Thursday], the COMEX reported a rare lack of turnover in their daily warehouse inventory report, but through Thursday turnover continued frantic, as COMEX total silver stocks rose to over 105 million ounces. There was also a very large 5 million oz deposit into the big silver ETF, SLV, raising the amount of net deposits over the past month to more than 16 million oz. I suspect there may be some liquidation shortly [there was - Ed], as a result of the high-volume price decline on Thursday and Friday." The Commitment of Traders Report for the week that was, is something else that I'm stealing from Ted's Saturday's commentary to clients...and I'm 'borrowing' it because I didn't have a Saturday column...and couldn't write it myself. I just don't have the time to spend wordsmithing this in today's column, so here's what Ted had to say about silver. "The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated a slight further deterioration in gold and silver, as the total commercial net short position grew in each market. I am assuming the data are up to date and fully reflect the big up move in gold and silver on Tuesday, the cut-off day for the report. In silver, the total commercial net short position grew by 1,800 contracts to 44,600 contracts, the highest level since April. The raptors (the smaller commercials apart from the 8 largest traders) accounted for 1,600 contracts of the increase, as they reduced their net long position to 1,500 contracts. The raptors have been the main sellers over the past 5 weeks or so, being responsible for 11,000 of the 15,000 contract net increase in the total COMEX commercial net short position." I'm also going to steal Ted's comments about the latest Bank Participation report which came out of the same COT data for positions held at the close of trading on Tuesday, August 2nd. "The monthly Bank Participation Report, also as of Tuesday and published on Friday, confirmed that JPMorgan had increased its net short position in COMEX silver futures by roughly 3,000 contracts over the past month. I would estimate that JPM is now net short 20,000 to 21,000 contracts (100 to 105 million ounces). JPMorgan's net silver short position on the COMEX is significantly lower than peak levels over the past few years, although it has grown very recently. There is no question that the overall reduction in JPMorgan's concentrated short position coincides with and, to a large extent, explains the dramatic increase in the price of silver over the past few years. It is clear to me that JPM wants out of its concentrated silver short position and is staging a strategic retreat. Like an army retreating from a losing battle, there is no practical option of sudden disengagement for JPMorgan in silver. Just as a retreating army would be mowed down if it tried to haphazardly run away from the battlefield, if JPMorgan rushed to buy back its remaining silver short position, the price would explode. I would contend that this is further proof that JPMorgan has manipulated the price of silver. That JPM short covering to date has resulted in silver doubling and tripling in price is obvious; that they must still sell additional amounts from time to time to keep from having the price of silver explode is also obvious." "In gold, the total commercial net short position grew by 4,700 contracts to 287,600 contracts, another new high level since last November. However, there was a potential twist to this week's report. Whereas the gold raptors added 4,300 contracts to their net short position (now at 39,300) and the 5 thru 8 largest traders added almost 7,000 contracts to their net short position, the big 4 shorts in gold bought back almost 6,500 contracts of their net short position. While rare in gold (and even rarer in silver), this potential breaking of ranks by the gold commercial shorts may be significant." I visited a couple of bullion dealers when I was in London...and they both reported the same thing...big difficulty in getting smaller sized gold rounds and bars...right up to the 1 kilogram size. This is not just a British problem, but extends to all of Europe. I would guess that a lot of what the U.S. Mint is producing these days, is ending up overseas. Silver sales in England are not as robust as they are in the U.S. and elsewhere, as there is 20% tax on all physical silver purchased for personal delivery. However, this tax does not extend to silver purchased in an ETF-type instrument, such as ZKB out of Zurich...or physical silver purchased overseas in bar form.
I would guess that the bullion banks are running out of time. This is still the 'summer doldrums' don't forget...and nothing is supposed to be happening at this time of year. Fed May Announce QE3 Now...Creating Gold Explosion: James Turk. You'll Be Buying Gold at $2,000/oz - And Higher, Casey Research. JPMorgan analyst sees gold at $2,500 by year-end. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeGold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% GainIt pretty much goes without saying that I have a whole pile of stories for you today. Most from last week have been discarded...or won't be posted until my Saturday column. But even having said all that, the events of the last four days have produced an avalanche of stories, videos and interviews that are more than worth your time. In order to save time, all my stories are just posted as linked headlines...and, with few exceptions, virtually all of them are must reads or must watches. I regret that I'm not able to give attribution to those who were kind enough to send me the material that appear in today's column but, considering the fact that I was away for a week, I hope that all concerned will understand. 1] Gold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% Gain, Bloomberg 2] South Korea buys gold for first time in 13 years, WSJ 3] Putin calls U.S. 'a parasite' on world, denounces dollar dominance, Reuters 4] Paul proposes bill to cancel $1.6 trillion in U.S. debt to Federal Reserve, The Hill 5] Emerging world buys $10 billion in gold as West wobbles, Reuters 6] The Real Banking Crisis: Eric Sprott, Sprott Asset Management 7] After buying most of it, China gets mad at U.S. for issuing so much debt, Bloomberg 8] Short-Term Yields Going Negative at Bank of New York, Zero Hedge 9] Hoarding gold beats charts over 25 years: Technical Analysis, Bloomberg 10] As many as 20 owners for each bullion bank gold bar: Jim Rickards, KWN 11] Jim Sinclair is interviewed by GoldMoney's James Turk, GATA 12] Silver is 'investment of the next decade,' Sprott says in GoldMoney interview, GATA 13] MineWeb's Lawrence Williams reports on GATA's London conference, GATA 14] US Can Pay Any Debt It Has Because It Can Print Money To Pay It: Greenspan 15] U.S. could run off with other nations' gold, Rickards tells CNBC 16] Ron Paul Slams Obama's "Monstrous Creature," the Super Congress 17] Eurogeddon postponed again as ECB gains three weeks, The Telegraph 18] Walker's World: The Unseen Punch, UPI 19] Debt Crises and Market Turmoil: Is The World Going Bankrupt? Der Spiegel 20] The world runs out of options, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph 21] The bull case for gold, The Telegraph 22] You'll Be Buying Gold at $2,000/oz - And Higher, Casey Research 23] Fed May Announce QE3 Now Creating Gold Explosion: James Turk, KWN 24] Gold & Markets Signal More "Great Recession" - Richard Russell, KWN 25] Doug Casey Interview, King World News 26] |
| Gold Coins Sell Out in Lisbon as Biggest Bet Sees 22% Gain Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:29 PM PDT  It pretty much goes without saying that I have a whole pile of stories for you today. Most from last week have been discarded...or won't be posted until my Saturday column. But even having said all that, the events of the last four days have produced an avalanche of stories, videos and interviews that are more than worth your time. |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:24 PM PDT We see more selling this week as investors and traders digest the effects of the U.S. downgrade along with all the other recessionary factors around the world including the European Dept issues. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 11444.61 +60.93 after price fell down and through a major lower support channel near 12,000. Momentum is down and volume was extremely high. New support and resistance is 11,450 and 11,500. While the week was awful for the Dow it did finish with a close in the top 1/3rd of the price bar today signaling a bottom has been found and there might be buying on Monday. However, all three moving averages have been violated and we just recently had a sloppy double bear top in July. We forecast a selling period for the rest of the month in choppy trading. Major support at 11,400 is a key number. If this one breaks we could visit 10,750. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1199.38 -0.69 on very high volume and falling momentum. The close was neutral to positive on the price bar position. This index moves faster than the Dow and tends to lead it somewhat. Unlike the Dow, the price did touch a lower major support point and then did a rebound back to support and resistance at 1200. This pattern tells us a base may have been found for stocks and that we might see some fresh, new buying providing a recovery back to at least 50% of the recent loss. That number would be 1250-1260 which is normally key support and resistance on the S&P's. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 542.48 +0.64 under all moving averages and a lower channel support line. The closing price bar was neutral saying there is no decision to sell or buy. Volume was high and momentum fell hard. Price did touch a lower support near 530 and bounced back up. That touch near 525 is important as this is hard major support for this index as demonstrated last November. If the S&P's and the Nasdaq can show some leadership to the buy side next week, this larger company index might have a chance to get going. Keep in mind this month of August is normally very choppy and meandering with vacations and the summer doldrums. Serious trading normally begins in September. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2194.38 -12.82 after posting falling momentum and very high volume. A key point here: The Nasdaq fell under but came back and supported above an important price point near 2200. There have been two other lows in May and June that match this one and both held-up. After those supports were found, fresh buying appeared and new 200+ point rallies followed. Watch for basing next week followed by a try at a new rally. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 132.66 -084 on rising momentum and finally touching a previous higher resistance in the vicinity of 132.50-133.00. Two other similar highs were found back in September, 2011, and the first week of October. This radical move in higher bond prices was a retreat to alleged security by traders fleeing stocks and looking for a spot to park cash. Further, one larger global bank is planning to charge their customers a fee to install large cash positions in its bank. This is unheard of but it caused more bond buying to avoid the fees along with others buying bonds after selling shares. Expect a leveling out near 132.50-133.00 next week followed by choppy trading. GDXJ Junior Gold Miners: Closed at 32.73 -1.83 on falling momentum and higher volume. Both this index and its companion XAU chart are showing new supports by stronger price levels. The XAU also has developed a triple bottom support at 190 along with a supporting lower channel line. This gives us the idea the selling has stopped within these indexes and that new buying could appear later this month. We could see the precious metals shares index trading in chop for the next two weeks before beginning to rise for fall rallies. Gold: Closed at 1662.10 +14.70 on continuous rising momentum since the first of July. Price is far above all three moving averages. We watched gold trading during the stock sell-off and it seemed to be ignoring other market problems. New resistance is 1665 and support is 1650. Last year gold began the fall rally early at the end of July with silver starting somewhat later. This year seems to be the same as gold follows a similar pattern. Silver: Closed at 38.37 -0.35 after completion of a 50% retracement to $41.85 resistance. Momentum has peaked and turned sideways. Resistance is the 20-day average at 39.10 and support is the price of 38.06 on the 50-day average. Expect silver to begin the next fall rally two weeks after gold near August 22, 2011. US Dollar Index: Closed at 74.48 -0.62 on sideways momentum and choppy trading. Last year the dollar peaked near the end of August and then sold down for two months falling from near 83.00 to a fall 2010 low of 76.00. The July and August lows produced a very wide double bottom support. Yet, the price is still beneath the former rising support channel line and all the moving averages. The close along with the 20 and 50 day averages are in a cluster. The entire cluster is just below the 200-day average at 76.50, which is hard resistance. We would suggest traders forget the dollar for the most part as it doesn't even seem to react when gold is rising very much. The former inverse trade of a rising dollar and selling gold may not hold water any longer. Crude Oil: Closed at 86.92 +0.17 after selling back to near 82.00. Oil sold down from $100 resistance and is now supported in a new and lower trading range of 86.50 to 100.50. August is normally a down month for energy products including oil, heating oil and gas. The last week of August usually gives traders the annual lows for entering February heating oil trades when prices in that market tend to peak. Oil could drop off and sell more to a low near 80.00 on the cycles. If so, the bottom could be posted near August 22 before the fall rally begins within the energy group. Natural gas is slower but is starting to firm-up. Coal appears to have a strong power plant, metal production and heating season just ahead. Once we get out of August, watch for new rallies. CRB Index: Closed at 326.80 -1.17 on peaked and falling momentum. Price has been skidding but now has new lower support near 325. If this price can hold on that support, the CRB would form a bull double bottom and price might begin a premature seasonal rally. Last year, the CRB peaked in the first week of August and sold down into the end of the month. Then, near August 22, prices went flat, supported and the fall rally was underway. We think the CRB and its related markets need more time to sell, support and then begin the rallies in about two more weeks. August is slow, choppy and difficult to trade. Further, it appears the oil prices will hold this one down for two more weeks, too. –Traderrog         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:21 PM PDT Jim Sinclair and James Turk discuss the implications of the economic situation, especially as it relates to gold. They are both "gold bugs," and they are bright guys with well-reasoned positions. Paying The Mortgage With Your Credit Card The Die is Cast Martenson and Turk on Gold and Currencies James Grant and James Turk on [...] |
| Vietnam Central Bank allows imports of 5 tons of Gold to stabilize the market Posted: 08 Aug 2011 09:10 PM PDT |
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| Stock Markets in Free Fall, Gold Breaks Through $1,770: What to Do? Posted: 08 Aug 2011 07:32 PM PDT You are reading this article because the news out there got you worried – markets in a 5% per day free fall for many consecutive days, the U.S. losing its AAA rating, dire news from the Eurozone, gold shooting through the sky. |
| JP Morgan sees Gold at $2.500 by year end Posted: 08 Aug 2011 07:24 PM PDT |
| Hoarding gold beats charts, technical analysis over 25 years Posted: 08 Aug 2011 05:30 PM PDT |
| The Price of Gold on December 30, 2011 Posted: 08 Aug 2011 05:00 PM PDT Casey Research |
| David Morgan: $75 Silver Looming Posted: 08 Aug 2011 05:00 PM PDT |
| Posted: 08 Aug 2011 03:02 PM PDT Wellie, nothing like a lack of leadership to turn an ugly market day into an utter rout. But in another sense, the fake leadership in lieu of real leadership (as in taking a tough stand now and again and bringing the public around) is what set up conditions for a spectacular market unwind in the first place. It's one thing to do the equivalent of put the financial system on life support to deal with a crisis, quite another to leave the patient on life support and pretend you've returned to status quo ante. The downdraft continues. The Nikkei is down 4.4%, the Hang Seng is off 5.9% and the Korean stock indexes are all off more than 7%. S&P future are down 25.80. Gold is at $1756 and Brent is just below $100 a barrel . The yield on ten year Treasuries continues to fall and is now at 2.30%. The euro had fallen into 1.41 territory but is now at 1.4219. The Aussie dollar had fallen below parity but is back slightly above it. The plunge in big bank shares in the US has apparently focused the minds of the officialdom. Bank of America closed down 20.3%, Citigroup was off 16.4%, and JP Morgan, 9.4%. The Financial Stability Oversight Council is meeting tonight. Per the Financial Times:
I think there is a wee bit of denial as to the fix BofA is in. First, I'd like to know who exactly can and would buy Merrill right now, given the upheaval in the markets. Plus there is the not trivial possibility that the bank wrong footed its position going into this meltdown and is sitting on losses (I don't mean life threatening, I mean enough to impair the price). Second, managements tend not want raise equity when a stock is distressed and often wind up pulling the trigger when it is even more distressed. Two factors that gave the markets a push to the downside was the halting response of the ECB to the widening Eurocrisis and the astonishing lame Obama speech this afternoon. Europe opened weaker and the ECB was notably absent from the market. When it entered and bought bonds, stock markets recovered to flattish (the Italian index was actually up 4% at one point) but as the ECB went back to the sidelines, the market went down (US stock index futures moved in sympathy). That is not to say the intervention didn't have an impact: Spanish 10-year yields declined by 105 basis points and Italy's by 81. Some commentators have hoped that the ECB would step to the fore and finally act aggressively. A fair point is even if they were to stabilize the markets yet again, the European officialdom seems no closer to a real end game, even in terms of having a viable plan for patient zero, Greece, or the disease carriers, the Eurobanks. So buying more time is a necessary but far from sufficient condition. A report from a colleague, who knows staffers at the ECB, was very discouraging. The bank has $5 billion in equity. Although a central bank is not constrained by its equity, it is constrained by inflation (as in if it were to incur losses in excess of its equity it can still keep printing. As former central banker Willem Buiter has discussed, the constraint on a central bank is inflation. It won't need to go hat in hand to a national treasury for more dough to be recapitalized until inflation is imminent. But the ECB is dominated by Bundesbankian fear of inflation. And the bank is engaging in extend and pretend. My source said the reason the ECB is so opposed to a serious restructuring of Greek debt is that its exposures, including repo, in the €130 to €140 billion range. So Trichet does not want to restructure since it would reveal the size of the losses. But that's barmy. The losses exist. Not reporting them is an accounting fiction. But Trichet's objectives are merely to keep things together until his term is over (which I believe is in November of this year). If he is afraid of exposing losses, that also almost certainly means he will be loath to balloon the bank's balance sheet unless he is highly confident he is buying assets in distressed markets and is at no risk of loss. I was also told the meeting of the ECB board have become heated, with members resorting to nationalistic sniping ("What do Italians know about austerity?"). Needless to say this does not sound promising either. I've long been using the metaphor that the markets for the last year or so reminded me of a man trying to keep spinning plates balanced on poles. If you've seen that trick, the performer has to keep manipulating the poles to keep the plates aloft. I've felt so many of the plates looked wobbly that if one fell, others would come down in quick succession. But even a gloomster like me never thought more than one would come down separately but on the same timetable. Update 3:45 AM: Someone must have put out the QE3 memo in the last two hours. S&P futures have gone from nearly minus 30 points to up 31.50 points as of now. The FTSE is up .33%, the CAC is up 1.88% and the DAX is higher by .55%. Ten year Treasury yields have increased 10 basis points to 2.40% and gold has fallen back to $1744. Update 4:30 AM Bloody hell, that didn't last long. I'm turning in. Blink and the rally is over. FTSE down 3.5%, CAC down 2.33%, DAX down 3.33%. Ten year Treasuries at 2.38%. S&P up only 4.2 points.
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| Jim Rickards – Tea Party, AAA Status & Gold Posted: 08 Aug 2011 01:38 PM PDT |
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