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• 2011-04-22 Morningstar gold price forecast $1,200 in 2014 and $1,236 in 2015
• Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Over 2% and 8% More
• Gold Tests $1500, Silver Extends Worst Plunge in 24 Years, But Ultra-Low Interest Rates
• Silver continues to plummet mauling the entire commodity complex in the process
• Update 05/05/2011
• Gissen & Berol: The Hidden Factors Affecting Gold Prices
• Expect Vicious Bullion Selloff to Be Short-Lived
• Three Peaks and the Domed House Pattern Suggests Gold Going to $1,290!
• Comex Raises Silver Margins for 4th Time
• Central banks join the gold rush
• Gold and Silver Storm the FED
• Whats gold really worth? Central banks sure dont want you to find out
• Richard Russell: Demise of the “Yankee Dollar” vs. the Rise in Gold
• The ETF List
• The Fate of Gold May Be in Asia
• Ending of QE2 Sets the Stage for Dollar Recovery
• Thoughts on the Silver Crash
• ETF Warning Signs Pay Dividend
• Don't Run From the U.S. Dollar's Reign
• Silver's Dip will be Brief!
• Russia Buys Gold, Paulson Holds, Soros Folds
• Jobless Claims: Revising the Revisions Upward
• Hedge Fund Manager Email to me...

2011-04-22 Morningstar gold price forecast $1,200 in 2014 and $1,236 in 2015 Posted: 05 May 2011 12:38 PM PDT Morningstar, a leading U.S.

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Over 2% and 8% More Posted: 05 May 2011 07:14 AM PDT Gold climbed $7.40 to $1521.80 in Asia before it fell back to $1496.55 in London and then rebounded to back above $1510 by midmorning in New York, but it then fell to a new session low of $1477.33 in the last hour of trade and ended with a loss of 2.18%. Silver rose slightly to $39.57 in Asia, but it then fell back off for most of the rest of the day and ended near its late morning low of $35.708 with a loss of 8.13%.

Gold Tests $1500, Silver Extends Worst Plunge in 24 Years, But Ultra-Low Interest Rates Posted: 05 May 2011 05:59 AM PDT

Silver continues to plummet mauling the entire commodity complex in the process Posted: 05 May 2011 05:42 AM PDT Trader Dan Norcini

Update 05/05/2011 Posted: 05 May 2011 05:35 AM PDT  It looks like it won't be possible to continue but I'll give it a few days more.  In the meanwhile...  1565 was close...you've all seen that. Out of respect for those who have donated in the past: Good support 1475.  If that doesn't hold 1455.  In a disaster scenario for gold: 1417 with current level of USDX.

Gissen & Berol: The Hidden Factors Affecting Gold Prices Posted: 05 May 2011 05:34 AM PDT

Expect Vicious Bullion Selloff to Be Short-Lived Posted: 05 May 2011 05:29 AM PDT Rick Ackerman

Three Peaks and the Domed House Pattern Suggests Gold Going to $1,290! Posted: 05 May 2011 05:23 AM PDT

Comex Raises Silver Margins for 4th Time Posted: 05 May 2011 05:14 AM PDT Le Café Américain

Central banks join the gold rush Posted: 05 May 2011 05:10 AM PDT

Gold and Silver Storm the FED Posted: 05 May 2011 05:05 AM PDT

Whats gold really worth? Central banks sure dont want you to find out Posted: 05 May 2011 05:01 AM PDT

Richard Russell: Demise of the “Yankee Dollar” vs. the Rise in Gold Posted: 05 May 2011 04:56 AM PDT Sadly, the great American public doesn't understand what is happening...[and that it will be] on a greater scale than has ever occurred before in the history of mankind. It's going to hit the current generation of Americans like a whirlwind. It will be historic in its intensity and destructiveness. [Here is an attempt to enlighten them.] Words: 939

The ETF List Posted: 05 May 2011 04:56 AM PDT  List of Inverse ETFs (Short ETFs / Bear ETFs) After some research I thought recently that I may want to place some bearish bets in myOptionsHouse IRA. Inverse ETFs (exchange traded funds) are a good way to do that so I wanted to make sure I had a list of short ETFs at my fingertips when and if the need ever arose. So the following etf list is just for my possible future reference. Please let me know if I've missed any ETFs. These particular ETFs were taken from the ProShares product page (UPDATE: You can also find a list of Ultra / Long ETFs (Bullish ETFs)): Gold and Silver ETFs / ETNs: ETF Name Ticker ProShares Ultra Silver AGQ ProShares UltraShort Silver ZSL ProShares Ultra Gold UGL ProShares UltraShort Gold GLL DB Gold Short ETN DGZ DB Gold Double Short ETN DZZ Short & UltraShort MarketCap ETFs: ETF Name Ticker Benchmark Index Short QQQ PSQ Nasdaq-100 Short Dow 30 DOG DJIA Short S&P 500 SH S&P 500 Short MidCap400 MYY S&P MidCap 400 Short SmallCap600 SBB S&P SmallCap 600 Short Russell2000 RWM Russell 2000 UltraShort QQQ QID Nasdaq-100 UltraShort Dow 30 DXD DJIA UltraShort S&P 500 SDS S&P 500 UltraShort MidCap400 MZZ S&P MidCap 400 UltraShort SmallCap600 SDD S&P SmallCap 600 UltraShort Russell2000 TWM Russell 2000 UltraShort Style: ETF Name Ticker Benchmark Index UltraShort Russell1000 Value SJF Russell 1000 Value UltraShort Russell1000 Growth SFK Russell 1000 Growth UltraShort Russell MidCap Value SJL Russell MidCap Value UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth SDK Russell MidCap Growth UltraShort Russell2000 Value SJH Russell 2000 Value UltraShort Russell2000 Growth SKK Russell 2000 Growth UltraShort Sector: ETF Name Ticker Benchmark Index UltraShort Basic Materials SMN Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials UltraShort Consumer Goods SZK Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods UltraShort Consumer Services SCC Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services UltraShort Financials SKF Dow Jones U.S. Financials UltraShort Health Care RXD Dow Jones U.S. Health Care UltraShort Industrials SIJ Dow Jones U.S. Industrials UltraShort Real Estate SRS Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate UltraShort Semiconductors SSG Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors UltraShort Oil & Gas (Note: Read this if you're thinking of using DUG to short oil prices) DUG Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas UltraShort Technology REW Dow Jones U.S. Technology UltraShort Utilities SDP Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Short & UltraShort International: ETF Name Ticker Benchmark Index Short MSCI Emerging Markets EUM MSCI Emerging Markets Index Short MSCI EAFE EFZ MSCI EAFE Index UltraShort MSCI EAFE EFU MSCI EAFE Index UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets EEV MSCI Emerging Markets index UltraShort MSCI Japan EWV MSCI Japan Index UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 FXP FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Inde Researching ETFs For researching ETFs I use Morningstar which is a fantastic service because it breaks down each individual fund and its key criteria including top holdings, fees, allocation breakdown, etc. Take a trial of Morningstar and see what you think. Further Reading Some other great reads on ETFs can be found at our sister site StockTradingToGo: 24 Great Ultra Long ETFs Beginners Guide to Currency ETFs 8 Great US Treasury ETFs 5 ETFs that Profit from a Weak US Dollar ~tradermike

The Fate of Gold May Be in Asia Posted: 05 May 2011 04:49 AM PDT Marco G. submits: I am always looking for an edge in the markets, and so it was with quite a bit of interest that I saw a divergence happening with the drooping gold prices recently, as represented by the GLD ETF, and the major gold equities as represented by the GDX ETF, actually going the opposite way and moving upwards. For material support, examine the following charts for the GLD and the GDX on May 4: [Click all to enlarge] The GLD, as indicated by the pink arrow, was swooning downwards on May 4. The GDX, as indicated by the pink arrow, was recovering from the morning dip and then moved upwards in the afternoon, even while the GLD was moving downwards. Pondering this odd divergence, I concluded that there is underlying strength in the precious metals markets and that buyers were positioning for the expected continual up moves in gold prices. Adding Complete Story »

Ending of QE2 Sets the Stage for Dollar Recovery Posted: 05 May 2011 04:29 AM PDT Research Recap submits: S&P's Valuation and Risk Strategies research group says the ending of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve sets the stage for a strengthening of the dollar. Currency dilution, perhaps more than any other single factor, has provided speculators with a convincing reason to short the dollar on the global foreign exchange market. In our opinion, the conclusion of QE2 removes a great deal of the fundamental pressure that has been weighing on the dollar in recent years, potentially setting the stage for a period of speculative short covering at some point in 2011. We have observed over the years that market bottoms often begin with a period of speculative short covering. Other cyclical factors relating to GDP growth and corporate earnings could very well support this dynamic, but in the end, economically driven increased tax receipts, combined with government Complete Story »

Thoughts on the Silver Crash Posted: 05 May 2011 04:28 AM PDT Pater Tenebrarum submits: The action in the precious metals space has been so fast-moving this week that updates are usually out of date the moment they are written, but we feel nonetheless compelled to comment yet again. As is often the case when a parabolic bow-off move ends, the subsequent crash is accompanied by a plethora of bearish news items that suddenly pop up like weeds. The CME has decided to increase margins for silver futures traders a fourth time. While it is true that such margin hikes tend to exacerbate the pressure on a collapsing bubble, it is not true that this is done out of some nefarious intent as some commentators are claiming. Commodity exchanges always hike margin requirements when the underlying commodity rises sharply and begins to exhibit extreme volatility – regardless of whether it is silver, corn, hogs or whatever. There is no exception from the rules for silver. Complete Story »

ETF Warning Signs Pay Dividend Posted: 05 May 2011 04:08 AM PDT The LFB submits: Sentiment toward the five main ETF funds we track are all showing a near-term vulnerability to reverse lower, inline with overall global equity weakness. The outlooks on financials (XLF), technology (XLK), energy (XLE) and emerging markets (EEM) remain mixed. Momentum favors the short side of trading, but caution is required in expecting a collapse in ETF values ahead of the non-farm payroll jobs report from the U.S. on Friday. After a large increase in March ETF volume levels, which correlated with the volatility created in reaction to the Japanese earthquake, April ETF volume numbers have shown a dramatic change in pace. There was a broad market tumble in equity volume last month, and as ETF transactions account for over 30% of equity market volume it is obvious that main funds are going to be light on commission fees in April. S&P 500 SPDR notional volume levels took a cliff-dive lower, Complete Story »

Don't Run From the U.S. Dollar's Reign Posted: 05 May 2011 04:03 AM PDT Investment U submits: By Carl Delfeld The greenback gets no respect these days. In April alone, the U.S. dollar fell 3.8 percent against a basket of leading currencies. Today, it hit a dismal three-year low. This was in the midst of the S&P "warning" about America's AAA status. Jim Rogers even recently suggested that the dollar could go to the value of confetti. Other investors are predicting that the U.S. currency is on its last legs. Well, I hate to burst their bubble… The U.S. dollar is going to stay on top through the twenty-first century for two reasons: Its lack of competitors and its flexibility. The Basic Characteristics of a Durable Reserve Currency Both are important factors to observe after you look at the three basic characteristics of a durable reserve currency: Durable reserve currencies are strong, stable and provide ample liquidity. A reserve currency should demonstrate deep liquidity so investors can Complete Story »

Silver's Dip will be Brief! Posted: 05 May 2011 03:40 AM PDT Some people are saying "this is like 1980 all over again" and that silver will now crash. Nothing could be further than the truth. The truth is that the amount of money they have printed up since 1980 is ten times higher, so if you adjust for inflation, the peak price from 1980 should be more like $500/oz. in today's dollars. The next key difference is that in 1980, interest rates, the amount paid on bonds, rose to over 20% per year. Today, interest rates are close to zero. Interest rates make holding bonds more attractive.

Russia Buys Gold, Paulson Holds, Soros Folds Posted: 05 May 2011 03:34 AM PDT Carlos X. Alexandre submits:c Irony comes in many shapes, and the fact that my post of April 28 included a silver chart depicting the vertical ascent wasn't a call for an immediate fall. On Sunday night, as I inspected trading in Asia, I saw silver dropping 13% to its lowest point without an apparent reason, although gold wasn't following to the same degree. Then President Obama's announcement that Bin Laden was no longer alive made me think that maybe the news had leaked and someone was preempting the market reaction. Apparently not, because silver recovered some ground after the speech. However, gold has an interesting chart as well, and the only thing I can think of is the trajectory of a fighter jet during an exhibition before it comes back to base. [Click to enlarge] I know the margin for silver futures was increased once again, and if one was caught by a margin Complete Story »

Jobless Claims: Revising the Revisions Upward Posted: 05 May 2011 03:28 AM PDT Karl Denninger submits: Now this just plain sucks. In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week's revised average of 409,000. Oh, and the previous week was adjusted.... once again, up by 2,000. Unbroken we are, aren't we? The futures dropped instantly on that release, down about 6 handles. The dollar took a nice leg up. The amusing part of the release was the explanation - the Complete Story »

Hedge Fund Manager Email to me... Posted: 05 May 2011 02:15 AM PDT "low $30 range should be fair value - if the historical gold to silver ratio of around 50x holds (and I think it should) $1500 gold implies $30 on silver so there could be another $6 on the downside to the commodity - silver stocks seem to be discounting around a $32 silver price already so hold off for a bit more" Remember another margin hike on Monday 9th! Sweetness.

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