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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Bigger than Bin Laden – America’s New Public Enemy No.1

Posted: 04 May 2011 06:00 PM PDT

From the fans at Citi Field in Flushing to the mobs at the White House gates, "USA, USA," was the chant heard across the nation. Jubilant Americans celebrated the breaking news that Public Enemy No.1, terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden was dead.

Ten years have passed since the Twin Towers toppled and the Pentagon was whacked. After two failing wars and billions of dollars spent on the global manhunt to bring in Bin Laden "Dead or Alive," America has now claimed victory. "This is bigger than the moon landing, this is huge," exclaimed Fox News' Geraldo Rivera.

"Justice has been done," intoned President Barack Obama announcing Bin Laden's death. He not only called it "a good day for America," but also declared that "The world is safer. It is a better place because of the death of Osama Bin Laden."

While Secretary of State Hillary Clinton echoed the sentiment that "justice has been served," she evidently took issue with the Presidential vision of a "safer" world, warning that terror "won't stop with the death of Bin Laden, we must redouble our efforts."

If it's a "safer" world, why the need to "redouble our efforts"? These were but two of the contradictions coming from the White House in the early hours of the breaking story, and many discrepancies would follow. Some of them would be noted and debated, but totally absent from the 24/7 news coverage, political "high-fives" and patriotic triumphalism was the simple question: Why did Osama Bin Laden, former mujahedin ally of the United States, turn against it to become Public Enemy No.1?

Was it that he and his Al Qaeda fighters suddenly decided to hate America's "freedom and liberties" as George W. Bush maintained? Or was it remotely possible that the attacks were motivated by US foreign policy – with its unconditional support of Israel and concomitant support of the same Middle East monarchs, autocrats and dictators now being toppled in the wave of revolution?

Also absent from America's non-stop exultation and self-congratulation, absent from the acres of newsprint and the countless hours of air time, was any discussion of the practical consequences of the death of Bin Laden who, before making it back into the headlines, had been both a fading memory and a non-issue.

Osama Bin Who?

So irrelevant had Bin Laden and his jihad rhetoric become that, in the months preceding his assassination, every one of the uprisings occurring throughout the Middle East and North Africa was secular and in direct opposition to Bin Laden's militant pan-Islamic vision.

In a sentence: There were no practical consequences whatsoever attending the death of Osama Bin Laden. It would do nothing to:

  • Help America win losing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
  • Lower the unemployment rate.
  • Stop the US or European nations from sinking deeper into recessions and depression.
  • Revive failing real estate markets or solve the debt and deficit crises.
  • Lower oil and food prices.
  • Reverse the damage or stop the radioactive fallout from Fukushima.

What Osama's death did do was boost the President's sagging poll numbers and deflect public attention from the news that really mattered.

On Wednesday, April 27th, just four days before Bin Laden was killed, a new Public Enemy No.1 held his organization's first ever press conference. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the world that the United States would continue its low interest rate polices and, in effect, continue to flood the world with cheap money.

The global equity markets immediately responded to the predictably destructive consequences. Before Bernanke ended the press conference, gold prices shot up $20 an ounce, silver $2, and the dollar fell to a 3 year low against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Despite the Chairman's claims to the contrary, the US dollar would continue to devalue and subsequently dollar based commodity prices would soar.

Needing neither a mountain lair nor sequestration behind closed Fed doors, the new Public Enemy No.1, "Osama" Ben Bernanke committed, in broad daylight, an act of financial terrorism that would have far reaching and long lasting implications for the American public. As the value of the dollar went down, the cost of nearly everything would go up…excepting the cost of "risk."

This meant that financiers could continue to speculate and exploit the equity markets, with the profits going only to the 10 percent of Americans that owned 90 percent of the stocks, bonds and mutual funds. Moreover, the Fed reasoned the cheap dollar would also give a competitive edge to big US exporters. But as exports rose, so did the price of imports, putting further strains on average consumers whose real wages fell ever further behind the pace of inflation.

Bombs Away

What Osama Bin Laden's death also did was to deflect attention from the US/NATO "humanitarian" mission in Libya, which, just two days earlier, had delivered several humanitarian bombs upon the home of Muammar Qaddafi's son, killing him and three of his children.

The bungled attempt to assassinate Qaddafi (who had been visiting his son) was condemned by Russia, brought recriminations against NATO from other UN members for overstepping the UN mandate, and called into question the legality of the air strike.  With a groundswell of public sympathy building around the world for Qaddafi's murdered grandchildren, the very purpose and future of the entire mission was being called into question.

Trend Forecast: With the death of Osama Bin Laden, the restored, rebuilt, new and improved terror bandwagon rolls again…and it will keep rolling until Election Day 2012. Whether a real terror attack happens or not, Barack Obama, as he has done before, will take a page from the G.W. Bush playbook and keep the American public in a state of fear and hysteria.

And should terror strike the US, UK, France or other NATO ally, their governments, media "presstitutes," pundits, and the public at large will debate and deplore the "cowardly act" and demand "swift justice." They will blame Bin Laden sympathizers, Al Qaeda cells, Muammar Qaddafi, radical Islamists…but never will they blame themselves. They will refuse to acknowledge that what they called "terror" was nothing more than "revenge"; reprisal for foreign meddling in the domestic affairs of other nations, or retaliation for military invasions launched by the US, UK, France or other NATO ally upon a sovereign nation.

Meanwhile, back in DC, the Chairman of the Fed, Public Enemy No.1, "Osama" Ben Bernanke, will mastermind the destruction of the American dollar, the US economy and the purchasing power of the American people.

As we have been forecasting for years, gold, despite its recent pull back, is on-trend to reach $2000 per ounce (and possibly higher). And while Ben Bernanke claims that inflation is merely "transitory," considering his penchant for printing trillions of digital dollars not worth the paper it's not printed on, we see inflation as both entrenched and rising.

Regards,

Gerald Celente
for The Daily Reckoning

[Editor's Note: The above Trend Alert is available as part of a subscription to The Trends Journal, which is published by Gerald Celente. The Trends Journal distills the ongoing research of The Trends Research Institute into a concise, readily accessible form. Click here to learn more about and subscribe to The Trends Journal.]

Bigger than Bin Laden – America's New Public Enemy No.1 originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning provides over half a million subscribers with literary economic perspective, global market analysis, and contrarian investment ideas. Bill Bonner, the founder of the the Daily Reckoning released his latest book Dice Have No Memory: Big Bets & Bad Economics From Paris to the Pampas in April 2011.


Buy Physical Silver And Kill The Bankers Game

Posted: 04 May 2011 05:40 PM PDT

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Today we witnessed another raid orchestrated by the bankers. They generally wait until the physical markets, in London are put to bed before they strike.

Last night, I told you that the Comex initiated a 3rd margin increase as the bankers were scared out of their minds as to the huge demand for silver metal.

The on top of that, the bankers called on additional support by the brokerage firms as it was necessary for the bankers to try and force as many longs as possible to pitch their positions so the bankers could cover their short position. Please pay special attention to the following announcement:

Message from Interactive Brokers to clients:
To NYMEX,NYSELIFFE traders:
Tue May 3 04:38:47 2011 EST
In light of the recent extreme volatility on the silver contracts, the various exchanges that trade silver derivatives are expected to increase margin requirements on these contracts. As the increase is anticipated to be approximately 20%, we will be requiring an additional 25% cushion of margin on top of the exchange-mandated maintenance margin requirement. We anticipate this change will become effective as early as 12pm EST on 3 May 11.
For example, for the SI futures on NYMEX, as the expected NYMEX-mandated margin requirement will be US$12,000 for each contract, we will be requiring US$15,000 maintenance margin for each contract.
To anticipate the sudden increase in these margin requirements, our initial margin requirements on the affected contracts were raised to 180% of current maintenance margin levels. The aim of this preemptive change is to avoid adverse impact from the expected maintenance margin increase. Thank you for your understanding.
-END-
The bankers are waging a paper silver war on paper longs. This is why I urge all of you not to play the crooked comex. The comex is nothing but a paper game. Do not use leverage whatsoever.
Just go and buy the physical silver from your local dealer or bank. This is what will kill the bankers game.
More Here..


Gissen & Berol: The Hidden Factors Affecting Gold Prices

Posted: 04 May 2011 05:36 PM PDT

Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report (5/4/11) Party politics in America are pushing up the gold price, according to Encompass Fund Comanagers Malcolm Gissen and Marshall Berol. And that's playing right into their hands as commodities and other hard-assets plays in the Encompass Fund continue to outperform the broad market. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Gissen and Berol discuss their long-term investment philosophies and several of their fund's most promising positions. Companies Mentioned: Avalon Rare Metals Inc. Avion Gold Corp. Barrick Gold Corp. Dacha Strategic Metals Inc. Exeter Resource Corp. Extorre Gold Mines Ltd. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Goldcorp Inc. Newmont Mining Corp. Tournigan Energy Ltd. Ur-Energy Inc. Uranium Energy Corp The Gold Report: Malcolm and Marshall, the GOP and the Obama administration are at a stalemate over how to tackle Ameri...


Panic setting in with another Comex silver margin increase?

Posted: 04 May 2011 05:01 PM PDT

12:56a ET Thursday, May 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Zero Hedge tonight reports the fifth silver contract margin increase at the New York Commodity Exchange in eight days, which Zero Hedge construes as a sign of panic over the possibility that people might actually start taking possession of the metal they buy when there isn't as much to go around as there are paper pledges:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-pa...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Silver Clobbered on Multiple Fronts

Posted: 04 May 2011 04:52 PM PDT

Historic negative money flow in silver ETFs.

CME seemingly on the silver warpath. 

2011 Vulture Bargain Hunting Season officially underway, finally. 

HOUSTON -- Since April 26 (seven trading days) iShares Silver Trust (SLV), the largest physical metal-backed silver exchange traded fund has seen a remarkable measure of negative money flow.  In that short time period selling pressure for the shares of SLV so overwhelmed buying pressure in the very popular silver ETF that authorized participants found it necessary to sell 1,002.8 metric tonnes of silver bars from a record high 11,390.06 to 10,387.26 tonnes as of Wednesday, May 04, 2011. 

SLV reported the second largest-ever one-day decline in metal holdings Wednesday, May 4, a reduction of 521.8 tonnes or about 16,776 of the big, average 1,000-ounce good delivery bars held for the ETF by its custodian, JP Morgan Chase, London.

20110504SLVmetal 
 
(SLV metal holdings. Source iShares Silver Trust)

 
Authorized Market Participants cause the trust to sell silver and reduce the number of shares in the float in minimum baskets of at least 50,000 shares when selling pressure is materially higher than buying pressure.  So when selling pressure is significantly higher than buying pressure metal holdings for the trust decline.  The reverse is also true.

Continued...

 
Wednesday's  reduction of 521.8 tonnes is the second largest one-day reduction of SLV metal holdings in the trust's 5-year history, second only to the 555.23-tonne reduction on January 2, 2008, which many traders believe was a typo correction from  a very large "deposit" recorded December 31, 2007 (616.94 tonne increase which likely should have been a 61-tonne increase).

This current reduction is likely actually the largest one-day reduction in SLV history in other words.  The silver feeding frenzy has morphed into a near panic hot-money rush for the exits, apparently.  

  
CME Doubles up on Margin Increases

From the "kicking the dog when it's already down department;" Formerly red-hot silver is being clobbered on multiple fronts it seems.  Today the CME announced two more margin increases.  One effective after the close on Thursday, May 5 (tomorrow) and the second after the close on Monday, May 9 (just ahead of the COT reporting cutoff for next week).  Margin rate hikes increase the amount of capital traders must have backing up their positions.

As of next Tuesday it will take about five times as much capital to open a speculative position in the big 5,000-ounce contract on the COMEX as it did a little less than a year ago.  Of course silver was then trading in the $17.00 neighborhood, or roughly a third of silver's Cash Market high print of $49.75 on Monday, April 25.  

Still, with silver already in the middle of a harsh May correction, the seemingly preemptive strike by the futures bourse has traders buzzing about what they believe is an unnecessary 'show of force' by the exchange brain trust. 

 
One commenter, a trader based in Chicago, remarked to us:  "This is unnecessary overkill by the CME.  What are … no, who are they afraid of?"

 
Others complain that the exchange seems to be "coming to the rescue" of long suffering hedgers and short sellers, the traders the COMEX classes as commercial traders, which include bullion banks. 

Whatever the reasons, one thing is clear.  The CME has become aggressive in the margin rate hike business for silver futures. 

20110504SilverFib 
 
(Silver, 1-year, daily with Fibonacci retrace targets noted.) 


Looking at our short-term chart for silver, the harsh 21% sell-down so far has blown off a goodly portion of the speculative froth (as we expected in May and prepared for earlier this year) and in a big hurry too. But believe it or not, by our reckoning, silver would have to sell off even more just to enter the first of several retrace zones suggested by Fibonacci theory.  The zones are loosely shown as several different boxes in the graph above.


Here at Got Gold Report we have been patiently waiting for a decent pullback for precious metals, especially for silver.  In our view this current pullback is an overdue reaction that has the potential to become an overreaction and thus a buying op of the first order.  That is, of course, for those of us that believe that this pullback in gold and silver is just that, a pullback, and not The Top of the precious metals bull market.

  
As Vultures know, we believe that a majority of the demand for silver metal is/was coming from outside the futures arena and we also believe that intense silver demand will resurface fairly soon.  We are and will be on the lookout for when the mining shares refuse to answer gold and silver weakness; for when the now very negative money flow for the ETFs reverses course and becomes positive money flow instead, despite further weakness in the metals; and for when the larger fund and portfolio managers return strongly to the buy side in futures – all the kind of signals that will boost our confidence should we decide to attempt a reentry in one of those Fib boxes on the silver chart above.

The violence of the sell down underway now probably means it is premature to expect a Fib box reentry right away as the high-percentage move down invites a sharp countermove and silver has already reached an obvious area of potential technical support - the popular 50-day moving average, currently crossing $38.80.  Having said that, it would also be unusual for an important pullback to be over in less than two weeks.

     
We believe that the Vulture Bargain Hunting Season for our favored small resource companies is already getting underway for 2011 and we intend to take advantage of overly-harsh, super negative liquidity in a few of them opportunistically using what we believe are "lower than low" stink bids. 


It's what we built up the Vulture Bargain War Chest for over the past few months. 

 
Trying not to sound arrogant or insensitive, Bargain Hunting is what we live for here at Got Gold Report.  We certainly hope that we are correct in that view!

***


That is all for now, but there is more to come.  


Hinde Capital's Ben Davies interviewed by King World News

Posted: 04 May 2011 04:46 PM PDT

12:44a ET Thursday, May 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

This week's King World News interview with Hinde Capital CEO Ben Davies covers the gold and silver markets and notes the effect that scrap metal can have -- once -- on a rising price. The interview is about 15 minutes long and you can listen to it at King World News here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/5/5_Ben_Da...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



ADVERTISEMENT

Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



What's gold really worth? Central banks sure don't want you to find out

Posted: 04 May 2011 04:05 PM PDT

12:16a ET Thursday, May 5, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

MarketWatch and Wall Street Journal columnist Brett Arends lately has eased off his disparagement of gold, and with his commentary at MarketWatch yesterday he joined those who have been asking how there can be a bubble in gold when there's no retail public buying of it. But Arends predicts that gold will become a bubble, which may be less than fully satisfying to those whose aspirations for the metal are a bit higher than the next big trade -- whose aspirations for gold involve its becoming an independent currency trading freely, unmanipulated by central bank intervention.

Arends plainly has no use for that sort of thinking. He writes:

"... There are problems with gold that make it very hard to buy with confidence. Gold is volatile. Nobody knows what it's worth. I keep asking gold bugs for a sensible valuation, and they can't tell me. And you can forget all the superstition. Despite what the true believers say, gold is no more 'true' money or 'real' money than anything else. As it generates no income, the gold market is effectively a Ponzi scheme. Your returns come entirely from the next buyer in line."

These criticisms are easily answered.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Insofar as gold is increasingly a currency again, its volatility is largely a function of the volatility of other currencies, as well as a function of central bank intervention, open and surreptitious.

As for gold's worth, Arends certainly would be right to argue that it's relative. But what financial assets have valuations that are not relative? To calculate a value for gold, at least one can start with its cost of production, which can be estimated fairly reliably by experts in mining and mine finance, or at least estimated as an average of current production costs. Arends acknowledges that "gold may simply be a less awful currency than all the others." Thus its value also can be calculated from the currency markets. And then, of course, if one wants to go there, one can speculate on the value imparted to gold by all the central bank scheming to suppress its price and conceal its true value, scheming that includes the conjuring of vast supplies of imaginary gold. What gold would -- will -- be worth when that conjuring is exposed and the imaginary supplies go "poof" may be for the moment only the fondest dream of gold bugs, but there is also a sensational news story in it for any journalist willing to pursue it.

In any case it's unfair to criticize gold for any mystery as to its valuation. Your secretary/treasurer long has complained that "since central bank intervention in the currency, bond, equities, and commodity markets has exploded over the last few years, we don't really know what the market price of anything is anymore," central banking having profoundly interfered with most markets. (See http://www.gata.org/node/9545.)

If, as Arends writes, "gold is no more 'true' money or 'real' money than anything else," with its libertarian instincts GATA would concede everyone's right to try to use whatever he wanted as money. But in turn maybe Arends would concede that gold does have quite a history in this regard -- a history far longer than the history that can be claimed by any other current circulating medium of exchange. While, as Arends' vain search for the gold bubble suggests, typical North Americans may not even be able to spell g-o-l-d, their ignorance hardly repudiates the views and practices of, say, a couple billion Asians.

And Arends is simply unfair in complaining that gold "generates no income" and that "the gold market is effectively a Ponzi scheme" since "your returns come entirely from the next buyer in line."

Currencies pay interest in part because of their inherent risk of depreciation and counterparty risk, the risk of outright loss. Since gold in possession has no counterparty risk, gold is less obliged to pay interest -- but it can and does pay interest when, like currency, it is loaned out. And how is gold any more a Ponzi scheme than the dollar, the euro, or any other financial asset, whose returns also depend on "the next buyer in line"?

Political news coverage usually degenerates into reporting of the horse race, diminishing what candidates say and stand for. It is often the same with financial news coverage, where reporting about gold is disproportionately a matter of its comparative returns, like the bubble question in Arends' commentary. There is so much more to gold than that. Yes, the substance is horribly obscured by central bank secrecy and deception. But piercing that secrecy and deception would be a great service by journalism, and much of the work has already been done by GATA here:

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

Arends' commentary at MarketWatch yesterday is headlined "Is Gold About to Go Vertical?" and you can find it here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-gold-about-to-go-vertical-2011-05-04...

A seven-minute video interview with Arends by MarketWatch's Stacey Delo, reviewing his points, can be found at MarketWatch here:

http://tinyurl.com/42ydsvb

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

http://gata.org/tshirts

Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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To contribute to GATA, please visit:

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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Over $25 and $3

Posted: 04 May 2011 04:00 PM PDT

Gold fell $10.50 to $1529.50 in London before it rebounded and saw a slight gain at $1543.09 at about 8:30AM EST, but it then fell to a new session low of $1506.05 by early afternoon in New York and ended with a loss of 1.66%. Silver fell to as low as $38.962 by early afternoon in New York and ended with a loss of 7.09%.


Parabolic Moves are Only Temporary for Silver and Gold

Posted: 04 May 2011 03:16 PM PDT

The past few weeks we have been seeing the US Dollar slide to new lows at an increasing rate. The strong devaluation of the dollar has sent precious metals like silver and gold rocketing higher out of control sending them parabolic! Read More...



Ben Davies: ‘One individual in particular, with a call to arms, has usurped the “experts” and become a deciding factor driving the silver market.'

Posted: 04 May 2011 03:00 PM PDT

The CME's recent margin hikes act as a recruiting mechanism that will expand the SLA's numbers. JPM's market manipulation and fraud is like the Abu Ghraib prison photos and will motivate millions to take down the dollar and JPM. In … Continue reading


Paper silver market doesn't care about physical market, Norcini tells King

Posted: 04 May 2011 02:42 PM PDT

10:38p ET Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

JSMineSet.com's Trader Dan Norcini, interviewed by King World News, tonight attributes silver's dive to hedge fund maneuvering in the paper market that has nothing to do with the physical silver market. In fact, Norcini says, "The paper market does not care about the physical market." An excerpt from Norcini's interview is headlined "Silver Plummets -- What to Look for Now" and you can find it at the King World News blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/4_Dan...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Wall Street Journal Publishes Lewis Lehrman's Call for the Gold Standard

In its April 26 edition The Wall Street Journal published an important essay by the Lehrman Institute's chairman, Lewis E. Lehrman, explaining why a gold-convertible dollar is critical to eliminating the shocking federal deficit.

"Experience and the operations of the Federal Reserve System compel me to predict that U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan's heroic efforts to balance the budget by 2015 without raising taxes will not end in success -- even with a Republican majority in both Houses and a Republican president in 2012. ...

"What persistent debtor could resist permanent credit financing? For a government, an individual, or an enterprise, 'a deficit without tears' leads to the corrupt euphoria of limitless spending. For example, with new credit the Fed will have bought $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries between November 2010 and June 2011, a rate of purchase that approximates the annualized budget deficit. Commodity, equity, and emerging-market inflation are only a few of the volatile consequences of this Fed credit policy."

To read more, and to sign up for The Gold Standard Now's free, noncommercial, weekly report, "Prosperity through Gold," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/gata



Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

https://www.amsterdamgold.eu/gata/index.asp?BiD=12

Or by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



In The News Today

Posted: 04 May 2011 02:08 PM PDT

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

I got huge amounts of hate mail when I suggested this in 2005.

Mexican central bank buys 100 tonnes of gold
By Jack Farchy in London
Published: May 4 2011 11:35 | Last updated: May 4 2011 20:37

Mexico has quietly purchased nearly 100 tonnes of gold bullion, as central banks embark on their biggest bullion buying spree in 40 years.

The purchase, reported in monthly data published by Mexico's central bank, is the latest in a series of large gold buys by emerging market economies intent on diversifying reserves away from the faltering US dollar.

China, Russia and India have acquired large amounts of gold in recent years, while Thailand, Sri Lanka and Bolivia have made smaller purchases.

Central banks became net buyers of gold last year after two decades of heavy selling – a reversal that has helped propel the price of bullion to a series of record highs. On Wednesday gold was trading at about $1,510 a troy ounce, down 4 per cent from a nominal record high of $1,575.79 reached on Monday.

As a result of Mexico's purchase, central banks, sovereign wealth funds and other so-called "official sector" buyers are on track to record their largest collective purchase of gold since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which pegged the value of the dollar to gold, in 1971.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

This isn't hard to believe.

China "Aims To Have More Gold Than America"
05/03/2011 10:30 PM HKT

THE CENTRAL BANKS of developing countries will Buy Gold at an increasing rate in coming years, with China being a leading player, according to a major industry figure.

Rob McEwen, founder and former head of Goldcorp, now the world's fifth largest Gold Mining company, believes central bank purchases could help push the price of gold to $2000 an ounce by the end of the year.

"China is out to have more gold than America, and Russia is aspiring to the same,"said McEwen, who is now chairman and CEO of junior miner US Gold. "When you have debt, you don't have a lot of flexibility. China wants to show its currency has more backing than the US."

According to figures from the World Gold Council (WGC), China's gold reserves were worth $48.2 billion in March 2011. This compares to $372.2 billion for the US. Russia's gold reserves were estimated to be worth $36.1 billion.

Central banks became net buyers of gold in 2010. The WGC reports that, over the past decade, European central banks alone have accounted for approximately 10% of the world's annual gold supply, selling an average 388 tonnes a year. However, these sales "have virtually come to a halt" in the last three years, the WGC says.

More…


Dan Norcini – Silver Plummets, What to Look For Now?

Posted: 04 May 2011 02:04 PM PDT

Dear CIGAs,

Dan Norcini warned over the weekend on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap that there was, "Potential for a top", "Negative divergences", "A great deal of distribution", "Very dangerous market for people to trade", "Undercapitalized speculators, they are going to learn they can be separated very quickly from their money."  Those were just a few of the red flag warnings for traders and investors from Dan Norcini over the weekend regarding the silver market that proved to be deadly accurate.

When asked what he is looking at right now in silver Norcini replied, "I want to address the silver backwardation issue.  Many investors and traders feel that silver should not be dropping in price because of the backwardation structure.  They point to this fact as proof that silver is in short supply and demand is phenomenal. 

That may be entirely true, I don't know, but the fact is that when we are dealing with the Comex silver market we are dealing with a paper market.  Keep in mind that hedge funds that trade the paper markets do not care about fundamentals.  They are pure technicians who rely solely on their computer trading algorithms to make trading decisions.  These algorithms are utterly indifferent to the realities in the physical market.

The bottom line is once these algorithms move into a sell mode, the hedge funds will unload until they've exhausted their selling, regardless of the physical market structure.  Meaning the paper market does not care about the physical market."

Click here to read the full interview at KingWorldNews.com…


Hong Kong Real Estate Transactions Plunge

Posted: 04 May 2011 01:54 PM PDT


A month ago, Zero Hedge observed the collapse in March real estate prices and number of transactions in Beijing (here and here), speculating that this could be the beginning of the end of the Chinese real estate bubble. Today, courtesy of the Hong Kong land registry service, we find that the drubbing has shifted from mainland China to Hong Kong. "The number of sale and purchase agreements for all building units received for registration in April was 10,386 (-23.1% compared with March and -27.4% compared with April 2010). Among the sale and purchase agreements, 7,635 were for residential units (-27% compared with March and -37.6% compared with April 2010)." This number of transaction is the lowest since March 2009. As for the actual money changing hands: "the total consideration for sale and purchase agreements in respect of residential units was $39 billion (-24.8% compared with March and -26.8% compared with April 2010)" - another low, as this is the biggest Y/Y drop since June 2010. Yet, not too surprisingly, the actual prices of real estate remain sticky. As Bloomberg reports: "Housing prices in the city, ranked the world’s most expensive place to buy a home by Savills Plc (SVS), have gained more than 55 percent in the past two years on record-low mortgage rates and an influx of buyers from China. The government in November increased property transaction taxes and pledged to boost land supply amid public protests that housing prices are becoming unaffordable and as the central bank warned about the risk of a “credit-fueled property bubble.”" The reason for this is that despite the cash-n-carry scheme described by Sean Corrigan recently, credit was suddenly become so scarce that it is only available to the wealthiest, who in turn are not, for now, in urgent need of hitting bids, thus preventing prices from attaining market clearing levels.

More from Bloomberg:

Sentiment has clearly been waning since February,” said Buggle Lau, chief analyst at Midland Holdings Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest publicly traded realtor. “A slowdown is almost inevitable when there’s a combination of government curbs, mortgage rate hikes and unpredictable events,” including the earthquake and tsunami in Japan on March 11.

Hong Kong’s bank interest rates will rise on loan demand and capital outflows when the U.S. increases borrowing costs, Hong Kong Monetary Authority head Norman Chan said on April 28.

Home prices in Hong Kong rose for a second consecutive week in the week ended April 24, extending a recovery from a three- week, 1.6 percent slide since mid-March when lenders started raising mortgage terms based on the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, according to an index compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd. Prices have risen about 10 percent since November.

The next statement summarizes the glass is half full perspective on what is currently happening:

"The best time for the home market have passed,” said Eddie Hui, a professor at the real estate and building department at Hong Kong Polytechnic University. “At the same time I don’t think we’re at the brink of a crash. The government measures seem to have brought the market under control gradually.”

And confirming our view that bid/ask spreads are only going to widen with either another bubble being blown, or a sudden bourst of liquidating ending the stalemate, is the following:

Transaction numbers will probably remain stable over the next few months as developers plan to sell more new homes after a brief halt in March, Midland’s Lau said. That will compensate for a further slowdown in existing-home transactions, he said.

“We are not seeing a drop in prices,” said Lau. “There’s still plenty of buying power there and potential sellers aren’t rushing to sell.”

Then again, the rush to sell by everyone always emerges at precisely the same time. And when that happens, there just never are any buyers. Hopefully by then, the BRIC decoupling BS will be long forgotten, or it will be yet another smear on the already spotted reputation of Jim O'Neill.


John Williams: Hyperinflation and Double-Dip Recession Ahead

Posted: 04 May 2011 01:43 PM PDT

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/john-williams-hyperinflation-and-double-dip-recession-ahead&ppref=TBP404ED0511A TGR: Is there a possibility that people would not buy U.S. debt unless it's in their currency? JW: It is possible lenders would not buy the Treasuries unless denominated in a strong and stable currency. As the USD loses its value and becomes less attractive, people will increasingly dump dollar-denominated assets and move into [...]


Silver Being Silver

Posted: 04 May 2011 01:42 PM PDT

My Dear Extended Family,

My daughter was hospitalized yesterday. She is fine now, but it was dicey last evening.

This note is being written in the hospital to tell you to please relax.

Margins will continue to rise on the COMEX until it reaches the cash price of silver. This works for the shorts as their hammer on the silver market reduced the equity of low cost positions. The efficacy is short term and made no difference whatsoever in 1980 as the silver market made its highs. What broke silver in 1980 was a unilateral change (novation) of the silver contract which went to "sellers only." Under contract law that is simply not permitted. They got away with a violation in 1980, but the corporate changes in structure at the COMEX that have occurred since 1980 makes the COMEX less able to pull that trick off successfully in 2011.

Silver is simply being silver. Silver did help gold therefore the 25% drop in value has to pressure the gold price.

The USDX is simply having a weak rally off a totally oversold on every internal indicator short side trade. The dollar has no future. The supply wishing to diversify is simply too big to allow any rally to have legs.

I have told you silver is a game. That being said, it it is a great game. Certainly as the silver price approached the 1980 high, you might have considered selling 1/3.

The high trade on silver was $54 in 1980. Silver's round numbers are at $50 and $100. Both will function as such in trading.

Silver is not money. It is simply too bulky to be freely and universally fungible. After this short play, which had to follow the spike intermediary top, silver will rise as fast as it did again.

The Hedgies are having their way with the gold shares, but logically this is coming to an end. When you can buy companies whose resources are three times the company's present capitalization, the share is getting unreasonably cheap.

The ratio of GDX versus GDXJ is starting to favor the juniors which is a major heads up event.

What you have witnessed is not at all shocking. If you traded 1968 to 1980 you would know this is just silver being silver.

Relax. Put a french curve on silver and you will see the bottom change in trend event.

Respectfully,
Jim


An Interesting Theory on Silver for Volatile Times in Desperate Economic Conditions

Posted: 04 May 2011 01:21 PM PDT


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Special Report: EU = USSR Redux?

Posted: 04 May 2011 12:57 PM PDT


Tuur Demeester submits this comprehensive special report which analyzes the collapse of the Soviet Union, focusing on ten core crashes of the once "evil empire." Subsequently, as he submits: "I make a point by point comparison with Europe today, and come to the conclusion that its situation does not differ all that much with that of the imploding USSR. As a matter of fact, the parallells are often startling. There are plenty of disquieting evolutions going on in Europe today: the riots in the PIIGS countries, the appearingly permanent crisis in the banking world,... Maintaining the status quo is no longer possible, that much is clear. But what will the change look like? Will it be a steady reform, or on the contrary a sudden crash of the European Union and the euro?" For a very original take on the future of the European Union, read on.

Special Report: EU = USSR Redux? (pdf)

ReportEUvsUSSR
AttachmentSize
ReportEUvsUSSR.pdf623.07 KB


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Mexico cenbank says gold purchases normal policy

Posted: 04 May 2011 12:53 PM PDT

by Robert Campbell
May 4 (Reuters) – Mexico's central bank said on Wednesday its recent purchases of gold were part of its normal policy for managing the country's international reserves.

The bank bought over $4 billion in gold in the first quarter…

[source]

RS View: This tiny comment should set the stage for a very comfortable peace of mind. In the wake of a financial climate that has seen innumerable central banks engage in a very wide variety of new behaviors that were subsequently articulated as being "extraordinary measures" (i.e., the implication being that such activities were undesirable yet unavoidably excusable,) it is distinctly auspicious that this particular example of newish activity is hereby being described as part of "normal policy".

Think long and hard about that.

got gold? Get you some.


Dan Norcini - Silver Plummets, What to Look For Now?

Posted: 04 May 2011 12:19 PM PDT

Dan Norcini warned over the weekend on the KWN Weekly Metals Wrap that there was, "Potential for a top", "Negative divergences", "A great deal of distribution", "Very dangerous market for people to trade", "Undercapitalized speculators, they are going to learn they can be separated very quickly from their money." Those were just a few of the red flag warnings for traders and investors from Dan Norcini over the weekend regarding the silver market that proved to be deadly accurate.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Capital Context Update: Ebbs, Flows, and Surges

Posted: 04 May 2011 12:18 PM PDT


From Capital Context

S&P futures closed off their lows but VWAP was the great redeemer in the end.

Stocks and spreads were weaker close to close today with HY underperforming IG and equities underperforming credit (beta-adjusted). Following our Midday Movers comments and the close of Europe, US risk assets managed to creep off their wides but we note (as indicated in the chart above) that S&P futures merely regained VWAP indicating a significant lack of strength.

VWAP closed -8pts from yesterday's closing VWAP having slid all day from a day-session open pretty much unch from the close last night (and interestingly the peak volume price - blue line - was also close to the VWAP line suggesting traders had some comfort auctioning at these levels).

The 0.7% or so drop in SPY though was, for the second day in a row, a notable underperformance relative to the broad credit market (albeit with the latter losing some ground today also).

There is still plenty of room to go before equities regain any kind of fair-value relative to credit top-down (as we discussed yesterday ) and we are happy to say our ETF Arb position is over 10% into the money already having dropped below $16 for a time today (target is $15 from an entry at ~$19).

Relative euphoria over the Finnish quasi-decisions and Portuguese bailout 'agreement', that we commented upon earlier, saw spreads in sovereigns and financials get a boost across the pond ( though non-financials notably underperformed financials suggesting the austerity wealth transfer being priced in ) and strengthen the EUR up over 1.49 for a time but once it closed, the EUR lost ground to the USD and DXY rallied back above 73. The USD weakness early on was greeted with Treasury buying somewhat conversely but we wonder if the dealers are getting a little over-stuffed from filling offers for USD and just sweeping them into TSYs for safekeeping (and to pick up some roll and carry while they are at it).

Vol markets were tempestuous today with VIX spiking early and then drifting off which was seen by many as a sign of market resilience. However, as much as we want to believe that, we let the data do the talking and the initial spike in VIX coincided with a notable spike in implied correlation suggesting that the early and very weak macro data caused a blanket overlay of protection to be bought (hence VIX - index options vol) was bid relative to the less liquid single-name protection. As the day went on, we saw index protection unwound and rotated into single-name protection as implied correlation and VIX dropped.

This fits with our recent theme that we have seen lower beta (safer/quality especially) names being protected while higher beta (momo/lower quality) actually being net sold when we look at vol in the context of credit and equity. This dash for an overlay also sparked the first pick up in the skew in almost two weeks and largest rise in 3 weeks.

Secondary bond activity was relatively busy but quite balanced (i.e the net selling/buying to dealers was almost equal) though 6 of the 10 industries saw net selling pressure with non-cyclicals and industrials at the top of that list (the former topped by RRD sales - as we discussed this morning). The punishment meted out to0 RRD (and GATX for that matter) for their relatively shareholder-friendly behavior today was as aggressive as we suspected it would be when it came in general and we remind readers of our ignorance of Modigliani and Miller when it comes to the practical matter of managing capital structure value relationships.

HY saw its biggest day to day widening since 4/18 and we basically crossed back over the gappy ( gamma-driven ) snap tighter from last week (as much as we nate to say we told you so) to close at its widest since 4/26. IG also turned in a decent move wider (though HY relatively underperformed based on empirical betas) as both manage 3 days in a row of widening.

HY was once again struggling with the front-end as 3Y HY widened an impressive 11bps, back to one-week wides, and flattening the 3s5s further. The 3Y index shift was very much against the intrinsics flow and we suspect there was a decent amount of dealers soaking up index arb activity in there today as the skew in 3Y is at its narrowest in weeks now. A flattening of the front-end is worrisome for HY issuers as they have benefitted from the liquidity and yield demand that investors seem to have in reaching for lower quality but unwilling to extend durations - interest expenses will be rising.

Ugly data on CMBS delinqs saw some interesting shifts in CMBX tranche land - AAA/AJ underperforming and BBB outperforming. This kind of twist trade is a clear example of a bias to a higher correlation trade - i.e. it suggests investors in these tranches believe a rise in default correlation is due - a more systemically worrying thing than an idiosyncratic issue. We tend to agree though of course who knows at what level any bank has any of this marked-to-market.

Monthly breakdown of outstanding debt (principal and interest) owed by USA Inc. May and June are huge refi months!

Bottom line today is we saw more higher beta underperformance in equity and credit land, more equity underperformance of credit, more flattening in the front end of credit curves, more secondary bond net selling, vol themes continuing to diverge between high and low beta names, a pick back in vol skews (downside protection bid), and significantly harsh punishment (relatively speaking) for shareholder-friendliness in credit land. So not much to yell for joy about.

Yes, the dollar managed to regain unch and silver and copper (and gold today) lost some more ground, but we suspect much of the rumor/furore over who is selling (just ignore it if they are hedging huge positions or mining ops! - wouldn't you??), is just that and realistically a core gold position seems like common sense as we begin to see both a weakness in US macro and global leading indicators and the potential for pain from the dichotomy of a ultra-close US debt ceiling and the need to refi over $900bn in the next two months (see USA debt distribution chart above), and chatter from Fed heads of a need to remain easy in policy ebbing out today (despite their heroic views of 2011 and 2012 GDP growth and unemployment). We remain hedged in the A-List and short equities relative to credit here.

Apologies for the lateness and brevity of today's note.

Index/Intrinsics Changes

CDX16 IG +0.81bps to 89.75 ($-0.03 to $100.38) (FV +0.99bps to 88.8) (73 wider - 19 tighter <> 46 steeper - 75 flatter) - No Trend.
CDX16 HVOL +1.7bps to 149.8 (FV +2.52bps to 147.02) (18 wider - 6 tighter <> 13 steeper - 16 flatter) - No Trend.
CDX16 ExHVOL +0.53bps to 70.79 (FV +0.51bps to 71.12) (55 wider - 41 tighter <> 62 steeper - 34 flatter).
CDX16 HY (30% recovery) Px $-0.25 to $102.81 / +6bps to 431.3 (FV +0.1bps to 412.73) (52 wider - 33 tighter <> 45 steeper - 54 flatter) - Trend Wider.
LCDX15 (70% recovery) Px $-0.19 to $101.375 / +4.77bps to 238.75 - Trend Wider.
MCDX15 +1.75bps to 126.75bps. - Trend Tighter.
ITRX15 Main 0bps to 96.25bps (FV-0.59bps to 97.8bps).
ITRX15 HiVol -0.5bps to 134.5bps (FV-0.64bps to 131.17bps).
ITRX15 Xover +4bps to 356bps (FV-0.63bps to 343bps).
ITRX15 FINLs -2.12bps to 128.88bps (FV-1.81bps to 128.86bps).
DXY weakened 0.03% to 73.12.
Oil fell $2.24 to $108.81.
Gold fell $18.77 to $1517.2.
VIX increased 0.38pts to 17.08%.
10Y US Treasury yields fell 3bps to 3.22%.
S&P500 Futures lost 0.58% to 1344.3.

Spreads were broadly wider in the US as all the indices deteriorated. IG trades 2.4bps tight (rich) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of -0.9s.d.. At 89.75bps, IG has closed tighter on only 41 days in the last 602 trading days (JAN09). The last five days have seen IG flat to its 50d moving average. HY trades 13.6bps wide (cheap) to its 50d moving average, which is a Z-Score of 0s.d. and at 431.3bps, HY has closed tighter on only 42 days in the last 602 trading days (JAN09). Indices typically underperformed single-names with skews mostly narrower.

Comparing the relative HY and IG moves to their 50-day rolling beta, we see that HY underperformed by around 2.4bps. Interestingly, based on short-run empirical betas between IG, HY, and the S&P, stocks underperformed HY by an equivalent 6bps, and stocks underperformed IG by an equivalent 1.8bps - (implying IG outperformed HY (on an equity-adjusted basis)).

Among the European IG names, the worst performing names (on a DV01-adjusted basis) were Alstom (+3.5bps) [+0.03bps], Holcim Ltd (+3bps) [+0.02bps], and Vinci SA (+2bps) [+0.02bps], and the best performing names were UniCredit SpA (-9.26bps) [-0.07bps], Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA (-7bps) [-0.05bps], and EDP-Energias de Portugal, S.A. (-6.75bps) [-0.05bps] // (absolute spread chg) [HY index impact].

Among the IG names in the US, the worst performing names (on a DV01-adjusted basis) were RR Donnelley & Sons Company (+45.25bps) [+0.33bps], GATX Corporation (+17.5bps) [+0.14bps], and Southwest Airlines Co. (+5bps) [+0.04bps], and the best performing names were Nordstrom Inc. (-3bps) [-0.02bps], Computer Sciences Corp. (-2.5bps) [-0.02bps], and Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (-2bps) [-0.02bps] // (absolute spread chg) [HY index impact].

Among the HY names in the US, the worst performing names (on a DV01-adjusted basis) were K Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc. (+44.82bps) [+0.34bps], Eastman Kodak Co. (+31.95bps) [+0.24bps], and Supervalu Inc. (+25.2bps) [+0.23bps], and the best performing names were Harrah's Operating Co Inc (-59.41bps) [-0.51bps], PolyOne Corp (-21.25bps) [-0.22bps], and Realogy Corporation (-24.41bps) [-0.21bps] // (absolute spread chg) [HY index impact].


Gold Price Closed at 1514.90 -1.7% Silver Price at 39.38 -8.1%

Posted: 04 May 2011 11:17 AM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1,514.90
Change : -25.20 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 39.38
Change : -3.19 or -8.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,827.30
Change : -35.20 or -1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 746.60
Change : -35.60 or -4.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 38.47
Change : 2.29 or 1.06%

Dow Industrial : 12,807.51
Change : 0.15 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 73.10
Change : 0.07 or 0.1%


Link


GroundHog Day for Silver - AGAIN

Posted: 04 May 2011 11:11 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] This seems to be a pattern much like the movie starring Bill Murray where he gets trapped in a day which keeps repeating itself until he gets it right. With the Comex however it seems to be a matter of seeing how many small specs (and even some larger ones) they can take out of the silver market so as to make certain that the perma shorts (which by the way are voting members at the exchange) can recoup the entirety of their paper losses they suffered as silver roared higher from down near $26 back in January of this year. For the second time in a week, and for the FOURTH time in two weeks, the exchange is once again hiking margin requirements for trading silver. Actually, it will be FIVE Times in less than 3 weeks with Monday's hike. This time it advances to $18,900 from the current $16,200 effective as of the close of business tomorrow or Thursday. Maintenance margin jumps to $14,000 from $12...


CME Margin Hike Is 4th AND 5th - Charting The Parabolic Rise In CME Silver Margin Hikes

Posted: 04 May 2011 10:48 AM PDT


Remember when earlier we said the CME had hiked silver margins for the 4th time in 8 days? We lied. In fact, what the CME did was to hike margins for the 4th (effective May 5) AND 5th times (effective May 9). That's right, dear reader, in one release, the CME has performed two concurrent margin hikes, which means today's action is the 5th margin hike in 8 days, a previously unheard of event! As of May 9th, the initial margin is $21,600, or 11% of the contract value, while the maintenance is $16,000. This is nothing short of sheer panic at the CME. At this point we can only wonder if the FDR-style precious metals confiscation executive order will come by way of the CME or the FBI. And for everyone asking, below is the chart of recent CME margin hikes in silver.

Spot the parabola:

Oh, and another thing: today (or technically yesterday) there was another drop in COMEX registered silver, with 4,758 ounces of silver withdrawn from Brinks.


Eliminating the Need for Organ Transplants: Coming Soon?

Posted: 04 May 2011 10:30 AM PDT

syndicate: 1 Author: Vedran Vuk Synopsis: How close is biotechnology to printing organs? Also in this edition: How far might silver fall? Jeff Clark offers a timely perspective on its current drop; Unexpected (and unwelcome) tentacles of the Dodd-Frank Act; And your daily dose of links – and a movie recommendation – from Vedran Vuk. Dear Reader, A little-noticed event happened last week in the foreign exchange markets: The Treasury Department proposed exempting foreign exchange derivatives from the rules required by the Dodd-Frank Act. Of course, this is a good thing. There's absolutely no reason to regulate foreign exchange markets. They are the most efficient in the world and were in no way responsible for the 2008 crash. Thankfully, the government made the correct move. Nonetheless, the whole issue was unse...


Carlos Slim actively selling silver futures

Posted: 04 May 2011 10:08 AM PDT

Wednesday, 4 May 2011 (CNBC) — Billionaire Carlos Slim has been selling silver futures for "weeks" in an effort to actively hedge the production of his silver mine, a spokesperson confirmed to CNBC Wednesday.

Slim, recently designated the world's richest man by Forbes magazine, has been selling futures contracts dated out two to three years, a spokesperson also confirmed.

Speculation that Slim was participating in the market has circulated for some time, traders told CNBC.

[source]


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - Comex Raises Silver Margins for 4th Time

Posted: 04 May 2011 09:57 AM PDT


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CME Raises Silver Margins - 4th Time SInce Last Monday

Posted: 04 May 2011 09:55 AM PDT

This is truly unbelievable and, I believe, unprecedented over the last 10 years.  The CME has jacked the margins on the contract again from $16,200 to $18,900 - another 17%.  Here's the LINK  This is a full 61% since last Monday.  This can only be seen as a sign of true desperation by the bullion banks - in their war on precious metals - who control the Comex and who happen to be short several multiples the amount of silver available at the Comex to deliver into their shorts if they get called for delivery over the next 12 months. 

It will be interesting to see how long it will take for the artificial price discovery system of the Comex to substantially disconnect from more valid price discovery mechanism of the global physical silver market.  Right now it takes about $4-5 over spot to buy a 500 oz. box of 1 oz. Silver Eagles - if you can find them.  Tulving has been out of them for several days now, which tells me the Mint hasn't indicated when they will resume the next shipment.  If the demand for silver in this country via the Mint can not be met at these price levels, doesn't it suggest that the "real" price of silver should be higher?  At least higher to the point at which buyers can freely source what they want from sellers at a price somewhat consistent with the spot price as set by the Comex and LBMA...

It also suggests that the vaults holding silver for the SLV trust which are controlled by JP Morgan, by far the largest of the silver shorts on the Comex, are more than likely harboring more dust than they are deliverable physical silver (I contend that it is mostly leased out).  Don't hold your breath that it's not, Ted...



Silver, gold hit by report of Soros selling

Posted: 04 May 2011 09:42 AM PDT

By Claudia Assis and Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
May 4, 2011 (MarketWatch) — Silver and gold futures fell Wednesday on a newspaper report that high-profile investors George Soros and John Burbank have sold precious metals, with silver still reeling from an exchange decision to increase trading requirements.

… A spokesman for Soros declined to comment.

… "Well-heeled" investors leaving the trade "put fears in people's minds," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist with Lind-Waldock in Chicago. Unlike gold, bought by large investors, funds and central banks, silver is mostly dominated by individual investors. Silver could trade as low as $36 an ounce in the next few weeks, he added.

Gold for June delivery fell $25.10, or 1.6%, to $1,515.30 an ounce on Comexin the biggest one-day percentage drop since March 15. The metal dropped 1.1% on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs analysts, though, said in a recent note that gold remains "one of [their] preferred commodities," with price trends still skewed to the upside.

"Uncertainty in currency markets and medium-term inflationary risk are likely to support investment demand," according to Goldman. "Recent high-profile investments by prominent institutions … confirm that institutional money is now adding to an investment trend that has hitherto been dominated by retail money." Geopolitical tensions in North Africa and the Middle East were also supporting gold prices, according to Goldman Sachs.

… Also, gold's status as a currency alternative to the dollar was boosted by news that Mexico's central bank had bought nearly 100 metric tons of gold in February and March, according to a Financial Times report citing a Bank of Mexico report and International Monetary Fund data.

[source]


CME Hikes Silver Margins By 17%: 4th Hike In 8 Trading Days

Posted: 04 May 2011 09:36 AM PDT


Nobody could have foreseen this. Nobody. At this point there is nothing left to comment on what is a concerted action to "mitigate" any and all risk in the commodity market but could as well be classified as executive order 6102.5. While we were joking before that soon one will have to post more cash than an silver contract is worth, we are now forced to reevaluate this sarcasm.

CME Silver


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