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- Think Silver Has Gone Parabolic? 1980 was 5 Times Faster!
- VB Update Notes for April/May
- Gold's “Three-Peaks and Domed-House” Pattern Suggests a $1,290 Price in June
- "Should I Sell My Silver?"
- One Chart, Two Ways to Measure the Dollar's Decline
- Can China Really Dump the Dollar?
- Market Overstuffing on Yum Foods
- Copper: The New Silver
- James Turk - Silver Still in Backwardation, Headed Higher
- Gold and Silver Correction Possible but Store of Value Demand …
- Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator: Silver Hits Another Short-Term Extreme
- Scanning the ETF Pipeline: Floating Rate Bonds, European Bonds and More
- Stock Ideas for $5000 Gold
- Key Takeaways From a Handful of Fast Food Companies' Earnings Reports
- Was That the Top for Silver?
- Why the convential wisdom on America's "income inequality" is all wrong
- Tuesday FX Brief: Dollar Remains Weak as FOMC Meeting Begins
- Porter Stansberry: The terrible tax lie you need to know now
- Don't count on a silver crash just yet
- Silver Is Not in a Bubble - Yet
- Austrian authorities reveal find of buried treasure
- South Africa not profiting from gold and commodities boom
- Weekly Market Report
- $200 Silver and a 5-Digit Gold Price
| Think Silver Has Gone Parabolic? 1980 was 5 Times Faster! Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:17 AM PDT This essay will attempt to address the question of whether or not silver prices are in a bubble, or possibly may be turning into a bubble and if so what trading strategies may be suited to the situation. This article will hopefully provide another string to the readers bow in attempting to identify bubbles and being able to protect one's portfolio and even potentially profit from them. For the record we feel it is prudent to state our view upfront, we do not think silver is in a bubble at this point in time. However we think that it is likely that it will become a bubble in the future, but we cannot say when or at what price. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:15 AM PDT Gold testing new nominal highs. Silver just came close to USD $50 before running into a selling buzz saw, but there isn't very much enthusiasm for the "Little Guys" at present. To continue reading, please log in or click here to subscribe to a Got Gold Report Membership. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold's “Three-Peaks and Domed-House” Pattern Suggests a $1,290 Price in June Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:12 AM PDT There are a number of different ways to look at what has been happening with the price of gold of late and to anticipate what is next in store for this precious metal. One of the most unique ways is to assess past, present and future movement is the application of the "Three Peaks and the Domed [...] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:41 AM PDT For newbies, johhny come latelies, Prechterites,and anyone else who is not a gold bug.Read carefully. Simon Black Answers The Question Du Jour: "Should I Sell My Silver?" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/26/2011 11:53 -0400 Exchange Traded FundNew York Stock ExchangePrecious MetalsWall of Worry From Sovereign Man, Simon Black Should I Sell My Silver? Silver's rise (in US$ terms, at least) over the past several weeks has been nothing short of phenomenal. The chart has effectively "gone parabolic," and people I've never met have started to e-mail me (in my capacity as a registered investment advisor) for advice on silver. It doesn't matter whether it's silver, tech stocks, emerging markets currencies, or pork belly futures... any time these two events coincide (a parabolic chart pattern, and strangers asking me for advice), it sets off ALARM BELLS in my head. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that right now, the fundamentals for silver DON'T matter. Many of the latest crop of silver "investors" have no clue about the fundamentals. To try and divine what comes next, it's more useful to use a general framework for understanding financial markets than to look at the supply and demand characteristics of silver. Because, right now, the market is being driven chiefly by investor psychology. It's a cliché to say it, but ultimately, all financial markets are driven by fear and greed. Actually, I'd argue that they're driven almost exclusively by fear. Let me explain... In the initial stages of a bull market, it's the fear of the unknown that keep the masses out of an asset class. They think to themselves, "Yes. I can see it's cheap. I can see the fundamentals stack up. But what if, blah blah blah. Why is no one buying it? There must be something wrong with it. Best to steer clear." For those who overcome this initial fear, or skepticism, and do get into the market, once it starts going up and they have a profit, once again their primary, over-riding emotion is fear... fear of losing their profits. Or, even worse. The fear of a profit turning into a loss. So, what do most of them do? They sell out for a small profit. That's why it is said that bull markets are constantly climbing a "wall of worry." And that's why ALL markets have corrections. Corrections happen when enough people are FEARFUL of losing the gains they've made so far, and start to sell out in large enough numbers to temporarily reverse the trend. Near the top of a bull market, when most have finally overcome their skepticism, and the savvier participants have taken advantage of one of the numerous corrections to buy into the market, fear again comes to the fore. For those not in the market yet, even at this late stage, what finally pushes them in is the FEAR OF MISSING OUT. All their friends and colleagues are cleaning up in the market. How stupid they would look if they don't get a slice of the "easy money" too. And so, they pile in like lambs to the slaughter. I don't think we're at that point -- yet -- with silver. But we are at the stage where many people who are already in the market are FEARFUL of losing their profits. On this basis, as a student of market psychology, I suspect a correction is overdue. Again, I don't claim to have any specific fundamental insight into the silver market. I am speaking from a general standpoint. So what should you do? If you own physical silver, the logistics of taking profits on your stash are probably quite complicated. Shipping, and converting a large amount of physical silver to cash temporarily, may not be straightforward. But there are other ways to soothe your "fear of losing your profits." You can buy temporary insurance against a correction. Or, if don't actually own any silver at the present time, you can speculate on a correction. Long-term ETF positions are risky, but you may consider a short-term position in the ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL on the New York Stock Exchange). This instrument is designed to move TWICE as much as silver bullion, but in the OPPOSITE direction. For example, if silver falls 5% in a day, this security should GAIN 10%. Of course, it works both ways. If silver keeps on rising, then the price of ZSL will lose twice the amount silver rises by. During this bull market, silver has already seen one "correction," during the financial crisis, of more than 60%. That was an anomaly. But, a typical 10% or 20% correction would not be surprising to see at some stage -- quite possibly soon. Any time any market has gone parabolic, it has played out that way. (Indeed, a correction may already be underway as I write. I've just checked and I see silver is off by more than 3% in Asian trade). Just so you know, my own money is where my mouth is. I've personally bought some call options on ZSL which will make me a tidy gain if silver suffers even a modest pull-back-- I put the trade on early in the day on Monday with silver above $48. I'll have much more to say on silver, and other precious metals, in future missives, as we see how events unfold. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sim...sell-my-silver | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| One Chart, Two Ways to Measure the Dollar's Decline Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:52 AM PDT This chart appeared in a recent Business Insider article, and even without explanation it's a powerful illustration of gold's bull market. Remember those stomach churning "corrections" of years past? They're insignificant squiggles when viewed this way. Something to keep in mind during the next 10% dip. But the dollar's path (the green line) requires a little thought. It's clearly down, but doesn't seem to be falling as consistently and dramatically as gold is rising. Why is that? Because the dollar in being measured against other currencies — which are also falling in real terms — so the destruction of the euro and yen are masking the dollar's decline. In other words, all the major currencies are being inflated away, with the dollar just slightly ahead of the ugly pack. Gold, meanwhile, doesn't "rise" or "fall". It holds its value while the currencies in which it is valued fluctuate. So this chart actually depicts two ways of measuring the dollar. The green line is versus other currencies, which is a false measurement because it explains nothing about the real trajectory of the dollar. The gold line is the inverse of the dollar's true value, as measured against the only remaining real form of money. Seen this way, gold's rocking bull market is actually the dollar's epic bear market. Neither is likely to end anytime soon. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Can China Really Dump the Dollar? Posted: 26 Apr 2011 02:13 AM PDT Kurt Brouwer submits: The U.S. dollar is on our minds these days because it is weak and getting weaker. We hear reports that Chinese officials are actively cautioning, scolding and remonstrating with the U.S. on its profligate ways because China has a few trillion in reserves -- much of it invested in dollar-denominated securities. The falling dollar and China's big stake in dollar-denominated securities raises the question, "Will China dump the dollar?" For investors, I believe a better question is: Can China really dump the dollar? In terms of foreign currencies, I believe there are only two other actual currencies — the euro and the Japanese yen — that China could look to other than the dollar. China's financial reserves are big enough that its government has to have its foreign assets denominated in a very large, liquid currency. There are not too many of those around other than the U.S. dollar, the Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Market Overstuffing on Yum Foods Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:52 AM PDT Nicholas Pardini submits: Yum Brands Inc. (YUM) has been one of the American companies to benefit the most from the growth of China. KFC is the most popular fast food franchise in China, and Yum's growth in the region has driven the success of the company. Other fast food franchises Yum operates include Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Long John Silver's, A&W, and Pasta Bravo, among others, in over 110 countries. However, gains in China have been offset by losses in the US market. As a result, the stock is overvalued due to changing consumer trends in developed markets, increasing commodity prices, cutting margins, and market saturation of weaker franchises. Yum has been successful in bringing Pizza Hut and KFC to China, but at the same time has lost sales in the US, which still makes up 59% of revenues and 50% of the company's profits. The reason for this is not just because Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:45 AM PDT Ed Zimmer submits: When one discusses the value of coins, or rounds, or bars the first suspect that always seems to get mentioned is the king of metals: gold. Irregardless of what form it takes, gold is generally recognized around the world as having value, especially in relationship to the local currency. With few exceptions, gold is involate, In fact, it has been said that all the gold mined in the history of this world is still in existence and much of it is in a form that can be used for transactions between persons, cities, or countries. Silver on the other hand, has had a much rockier existence. It is both a precious metal and an industrial metal, and a metal that is useful in the healthcare field. This multiple personality has led to silver being used in minute amounts in an ever growing number of industries which find it more effective, Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| James Turk - Silver Still in Backwardation, Headed Higher Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:41 AM PDT James Turk - Silver Still in Backwardation, Headed Higher With gold and silver surfing the wave of volatility, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Spain. When asked about the reason for the increased volatility Turk stated, "There are some earthshaking events coming, that's what the precious metals are telling us. That's what the dollar chart has also been telling us and that is why I am expecting a waterfall decline in the dollar index. The dollar has a unique position as the world's reserve currency and as people lose confidence in it they will go to other moneys they consider safer." "During times of trouble the natural reaction is to bring assets home. So as confidence in the dollar declines you might see an emotional knee-jerk reaction with people buying the euro even though that currency has serious problems as well. But people who buy the euro will soon learn it is only a stepping stone to the only real safe haven which is gold and silver." When asked about silver Turk remarked, "The important point Eric is that silver is still in backwardation. I mentioned to you previously in the KWN blog piece on April 1st of this year that if silver remained in backwardation when we neared the $50 area it would be a truly extraordinary event. Here we are with silver touching $49 in Asian trading this morning, yet it remains in a 63 cent backwardation from spot to December 2015. I can't stress enough how significant that event is. Over the past three months the price of silver has nearly doubled, yet the backwardation has not disappeared. Markets are not designed to work that way, the higher price is supposed to entice people to sell their physical and hold dollars instead. I think the market is quite clearly sending the signal that people would rather hold silver instead of paper money. The bottom line is that as long as silver remains in backwardation, price declines will be short-lived, it's also telling us that silver has not yet reached a top on this move." When asked about gold specifically Turk replied, "We have taken out $1,500 and we look ready to move higher. Often times when you take out a century mark it brings in a lot of new buying and that is what I expect to happen this time. I had not expected the gold/silver ratio to move in silver's favor as fast as it has below the 35 level. At on point in early trading today the ratio was below 31. That is telling me that silver is still leading the way, but when I look at the gold chart and the huge base that it has built under $1,500, I still conclude that gold is ready to rocket higher." For those who may have missed James Turk's KWN audio interview from last week CLICK HERE to listen. Eric King KingWorldNews.com http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...ed_Higher.html | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold and Silver Correction Possible but Store of Value Demand … Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:41 AM PDT gold.ie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-Term High-Probability, Mean-Reversion Indicator: Silver Hits Another Short-Term Extreme Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:34 AM PDT Andrew Crowder submits: The last time Silver hit a short-term "very overbought" extreme, I called for a short-term reprieve in SLV and the High Probability, Mean-Reversion strategy made 19.8 % on the trade. As for the rest of the market, well, it seems as though everyone is anxiously waiting for Bernanke & friends to release some type of catalyst over the next two days. I expect to see the market move into the summer doldrums for various reasons immediately following (if not before) Bernanke's first press conference on Wednesday. Gold (GLD), semiconductors (SMH) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have also pushed into a short-term overbought extreme so I expect to see a move Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Scanning the ETF Pipeline: Floating Rate Bonds, European Bonds and More Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:29 AM PDT ETF Database submits: The past week has seen the continuation of brisk expansion in the ETF industry, with more than a dozen new products debuting. The product pipeline continues to fill as well, with the most noteworthy addition being PIMCO's proposed Total Return ETF. Many of the other recent filings haven't brought nearly the level of attention paid to the potential entrance of bond king Bill Gross into the ETF space, but there have been several interesting developments on the product development front over the last several days: iShares Plots Floating Rate Bond ETFiShares, the San Francisco-based ETF issuer known for its dominance of the ETF industry, continues to be active on the product development front, recently filing with the SEC for a new variable rate bond fund. The proposed fund would track a benchmark that measures the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated, investment grade floating-rate notes. The index will have a focus Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:19 AM PDT Michael Bryant submits: An article recently posted on MSN Money explaining how gold could reach $5000 an ounce caught my eye. My first thought was: Could it happen? My answer was yes, mainly due to rising oil prices and the falling dollar. I talked about oil heading higher mainly due to conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa here and here. My second question was how to profit from this and by how much. $5000 an ounce divided by the current price of about $1500 an ounce gives a gain of 333% if one just buys the bullion. Also, the chart of the gold vs. Dow ratio from US Gold's website shows that gold could go much higher. An easy way to do profit from gold would be to buy the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or Central GoldTrust (GTU), which I mentioned here. Both ETFs hold 100% gold bullion. I also wrote Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Key Takeaways From a Handful of Fast Food Companies' Earnings Reports Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:16 AM PDT Retail Geeks submits: As earnings season kicked off last week, what did we learn from the week's quarterly earnings releases that will provide clues about what transpires over the next few weeks? McDonald's (MCD) provided the bread crumbs as to how many U.S.-based global retailers will generate EPS upside versus consensus expectations, via a much weaker dollar. The company expects a $0.15 to $0.17 boost in FY 2011 via FX. Chipotle (CMG) and MCD both professed an inability to effectively pass along price increases in the short run that will effectively offset this year's commodity price pressures. MCD management was asked on its quarterly earnings conference call as to why it could not forecast this year's impact of commodity inflation in January 2011. The reality is that MCD management has consistently altered its forecast of commodity deflation/inflation (click here for link to the company's guidance history). Its crystal ball is no better than Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:13 AM PDT Michael Albert submits: I know the article headline above is likely to generate quite a bit of emotion from both bulls and bears (mostly bulls since I never hear a bearish argument for Silver), but I wanted to at least entertain the idea that the extreme in Silver is here. There have been a number of comparisons equating Silver's price rise to that of the NASDAQ in the 6 years leading up to 1999, whereby the price gains and rate of ascent have been strikingly similar. The volume of Silver ETFs have exploded in recent weeks, with what used to be full trading day volume now occuring within the first two hours of the trading day. In addition, a popular closed-end fund that tracks the price of Silver is reportedly trading at a 20% premium to NAV, which is of course like saying one is willing to pay $1.20 for $1.00 (a not Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Why the convential wisdom on America's "income inequality" is all wrong Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:12 AM PDT From Marc J. Perry's Carpe Diem: "Today, the Employment Policies Institute (EPI) announced the publication of new research by economists Dr. Richard V. Burkhauser of Cornell University, Dr. Jeff Larrimore of the Joint Committee on Taxation, and Dr. Kosali Simon of Indiana University... the results of which appear in the most recent issue of the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. In his recent speech on deficit reduction, President Obama defended his support of higher taxes on wealthy Americans by echoing a widely-held view that the rich are getting richer while the poor and middle class are falling behind. But Burkhauser et al. find that this popular notion is mistaken... Read full article... More Cruxallaneous: Introducing the "Guide to looting when the SHTF" Five examples of government corruption that will blow your mind China's shocking weekend announcement: Proposes to dump the majority of its dollar holdings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tuesday FX Brief: Dollar Remains Weak as FOMC Meeting Begins Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:10 AM PDT Andrew Wilkinson submits: The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee starts its two-day meeting on Tuesday as sentiment towards the dollar continues to weigh on its performance. Investors are starting to wonder whether the economy is already showing signs of rolling over even as the central bank works towards adding the final touches to its second phase of quantitative easing. Some investors are starting to wonder what an ex-stimulus economy will look like and fast-concluding that the dollar is doomed to an era of permanently low interest rates. U.S. Dollar – For the first time the Fed will host a press conference after it concludes its April meeting tomorrow. The media will have its first opportunity to drill Chairman Bernanke on where he thinks the economy is heading after he delivers his prepared remarks. Data due for release on Tuesday is likely to showcase the ongoing albeit gradual decline in the housing market in Complete Story » | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Porter Stansberry: The terrible tax lie you need to know now Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:10 AM PDT From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest: ... We again court disaster by returning to a very sore subject – the state of our government's finances and the risks we face as our "End of America" scenario unfortunately unfolds with scary precision... Just as the massive inflation that began in the spring of 2009 begins to drive up consumer prices, a Justice Department task force is formed to investigate the rapidly rising price of gasoline – a favorite whipping boy of the political class. Says the Associated Press: "The Justice Department will try to 'root out' cases of fraud or manipulation in oil markets." The timing is perfect. The government, like a lazy hound dog, knows when to show up at the kitchen door. It's feeding time, gents. But do you think the Justice Department will announce a thorough investigation into the activities of the Federal Reserve? Nope. Do you think they will bother to explain to the American people how the Federal government used all its powers and trillions of dollars in new money to save Wall Street's biggest banks, to bail out highly leveraged insurance companies, and to prop up our country's automakers? No, no, and no. Do you think anyone will explain how, by creating trillions in new money and credit, the government gave commodity speculators a risk-free one-way bet – practically forcing them to build up massive speculative positions? Absolutely not. Instead, the boys (and girls) at Justice will round up the usual suspects – small-time oil traders and market makers. It's all their fault, don't you know? You have far better things to do with your time than parse the comments of our august chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke. As such, you might not recall that last summer, on August 27, at a private meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, he announced the Federal Reserve would resume buying U.S. Treasury bonds in large amounts – amounts equal to roughly 70% of all U.S. Treasury issuance. This has allowed the Federal government to fund nearly all its deficit spending and the growing costs of financing its enormous debts, with its own paper currency. In not so many words, our Federal Reserve chairman was telling our creditors: Go pound sand. We will never pay you back in sound money, you stupid, pitiful fools... The following table makes the point...
Within 10 percentage points of the change in crude oil, you'll find almost all commodities (the CRB index), almost all stocks, almost all U.S. energy (coal), almost all food (soybeans), and the world's most ubiquitous industrial metal: copper. "Why not order the Justice Department to investigate these markets, too?" we ask (with sarcasm intended). By the way, you may wonder about our inclusion of the world's largest casinos in a table clearly intended to show the impact of our dishonest and decrepit monetary policies. Casinos typically boom during periods of rapid inflation, as money becomes impossible to save and speculating (gambling) becomes widely embraced by the general public. That's a little-understood fact... and it may become very important to investors as this hyperinflation becomes more and more intense. Hyperinflation...? Yes, that's right. It's underway already, and it's going to get worse and worse. Look at the table above. What has done the best since the Fed turned on the money spigot? The one form of sound money most sensitive to a monetary crisis – silver. As early as May 2006, I explained to my subscribers why silver would boom – because of the silver ratio – as the dollar collapsed. That's exactly what's happening today. Meanwhile... look at the bottom of the table. There lies the world's legacy fiat paper reserve currency – the U.S. dollar. As I've explained time and time again in my various reports on the "End of America," the current inflation spells the end of the U.S. dollar standard around the world. That's not a prediction anymore: It is happening right now, as you read this. This table is clear and scary enough... but then there are the President's comments yesterday about these matters, which, to me, were simply surreal. In reference to the soaring price of gasoline, OBAMA! told a group of supporters in Reno, Nevada: "We are going to make sure that no one is taking advantage of the American people for their own short-term gain." I'm assuming this line was delivered with a straight face... and to a cheering crowd. But... maybe not. Did anyone in the crowd understand the irony of the President's position? OBAMA! just explained the essence of capitalism – the factor that makes it work – but used it to define criminal activity. Even a 10th-grade economics student understands capitalism works because, through the miracle of free exchange, private vices (short-term gains) are converted into public virtues – goods and services people want. It's surreal to watch the President of the United States say things like this... things that could have been lifted from the speeches of Hugo Chavez. A confession, dear subscribers. I've worked hard on my newsletters for 15 years. I've taken financial risks to build this business, while giving up dozens of other lucrative opportunities. But... I realize now, after listening to the President, selling newsletters "takes advantage" of the American people (and about 100 other types of nationalities who subscribe from around the world) for my own short-term gain. I feel ashamed. So, I have a special request for the President... I am willing to give up my post and to renounce my "greed." My entire staff is willing to do the same. But before we leave our work, we need the President to help us find a few dozen folks who have our skills and work ethic, but are happy to work for free. Somewhere out there, we know, Mr. President, there are people noble enough to toil endlessly at jobs – like customer service, research, sales, marketing, general manager, designer, I.T., etc. – for nothing in return and no hope of building any personal wealth... lest they "take advantage of the American people." We hope you'll help us find them, Mr. President, because our current path of seeking one short-term gain after another has simply left us exhausted. What will we do next...? The new thing in America: We're going to live at the expense of our neighbors. For the first time in modern history, the government is paying out more money, in cash, to citizens, than it is taking in taxes.We spent $2.3 trillion on direct benefits to taxpayers last year, while the government's total income was only $2.2 trillion. Roughly 60% of all Americans now receive some significant financial benefit from the government. Meanwhile, less than 50% of all people pay any federal income taxes. And roughly 10% of all taxpayers foot virtually all the significant income taxes levied. Some of you, gentle readers, must think this is the way things ought to be. When polled, 75% of Americans say Medicare shouldn't be cut under any conditions. And roughly 75% say raising taxes on the rich is the best way to solve the budget crisis. I don't agree with these sentiments. I don't think it's appropriate or Constitutional to charge one citizen a different rate of tax than another. We all ought to be equal under the law, regardless of our income. Likewise, I don't believe the government ought to be involved in paying for medicine. Why not? When is the last time in history a government did a good job distributing a highly complex, incredibly expensive good or service that had an essentially endless demand? The track record isn't promising. But you should feel free to completely ignore my opinions on these matters because they're completely irrelevant. The fact is, these policies – the politicians' efforts to narrow the tax base while greatly expanding the role of the government in our society – are bankrupting us. By printing money to pay for these expenses, we will cause the complete collapse of our currency – as the table above ought to make clear to anyone paying attention. Forget everything else you know about the budget problems and focus on these facts... It doesn't matter that you've paid into Social Security and Medicare. That's like investors arguing Bernie Madoff owes them money. It may very well be true – but it's totally irrelevant. Likewise, it doesn't matter that "income inequality" is supposedly at a new high. It's not, but why argue? It doesn't matter – taxes won't solve that problem. What does matter...? Consider this: Even if you collected 100% of the income of all the people who make more than $250,000 a year, the U.S. government would have still run a deficit last year. Even if you doubled the entire amount of income taxes collected, the Federal government would have run a deficit last year. There is no way to balance our budget, no way to prevent the literal bankruptcy of our country and the runaway hyperinflation that would result, unless we dramatically cut the government's budget. We have no choice, as you'll see. The U.S. government has never succeeded in collecting more than about 20% of GDP in taxes. Yes, that's true. The higher the marginal rates of income taxes (the more you ask the rich to pay), the more inefficient the tax system will become and the greater the burden on GDP growth, which is the main driver of all tax revenue. There is no free lunch. To collect 20% of GDP in taxes isn't easy. It will require a broad-based, flatter income tax or something akin to it. Collecting more than 20% of GDP has, so far, been impossible. I wouldn't plan on it. Our GDP is roughly $14 trillion today. So no matter how you organize the tax base, you end up with $2.8 trillion to spend. And you can't spend that much, because you've got interest payments and (gasp!) debt repayments to make. Yes, that's right, America: You borrowed all this money, and our creditors actually expect to be repaid. Interest payments and principal reductions of our debt will have to come first and should total around $500 billion each year. If interest rates go up, we'll have to spend more than this. Sorry. That's the price we have to pay if we expect to maintain control of our economy and not allow our children to end up as house-boys and maids in Shanghai. That leaves us with roughly $2 trillion to spend. Here are our current expenses: Medicare and Social Security are now spending $1.5 trillion and, if left alone, will quickly grow to far more than the entire tax base. The military spends over $700 billion (that we know of) each year. Domestic social programs (food stamps, Department of Education, etc.) cost $500 billion. Federal pensions cost more than $200 billion a year. So... we've got $2 trillion to spend... but our bills are running to $3 trillion per year, and they're scheduled to increase, substantially. Thus, we will have to cut at least $1 trillion from the budget – immediately – and be prepared to continue cutting on discretionary spending and the military for at least the next decade. That will mean cutting about one out of every three dollars the government spends today. Unless we balance this budget, there's no longer any doubt our currency will be destroyed, our savings lost, and the assets of our country stripped by foreign creditors. So... what's more important to you? The lies you've been promised, or trying your best to restore this country to its founding principles? That's what we've got to decide. These facts, by the way, are common knowledge to all the planning people in Washington. So... what are the politicians doing? They're condemning capitalism by complaining about "short-term gains." They're investigating the free exchange of oil contracts and calling oil traders "criminals." Oh... that's right... they also spent months trying to cut $60 billion from the budget – about six cents on the dollar of the cuts required to balance our budget. Those "cuts," by the way, were actually just smoke and mirrors budget moves that won't reduce the actual amount of spending by a penny, nor even reduce our deficit. Here's my question... and I mean this sincerely... how bad do things have to get in this country before the average voter wakes up and realizes that he can't actually live at the expense of his neighbor? How long will it take before it dawns on regular people that, like it or not, the rich can't pay for the entire burden of government? And what will happen when the average person who believed the lies he's been told by his government realizes there's no way any of those false promises can be delivered...? Unfortunately... my bet is that things in this country are going to have to get a lot worse before our leaders in Washington – on both sides of the aisle – do anything that even remotely resembles actual leadership. So the next time you're thinking about selling your silver or cashing in your gold, just go back over these numbers above and ask yourself, how long will it be before Congress decides to gut the budget and begins to actually repay our creditors? Oh... one more thing to consider. This week, we saw S&P threaten to downgrade the sovereign credit of the U.S., something completely unthinkable to the world's financial system just three years ago. We saw the University of Texas take possession of nearly $1 billion of gold, a trend I believe could cause a run on the world's bullion banks (like JPMorgan) and a panic unlike anything we've seen since the Great Depression. We've recently witnessed the world's largest bond investor (PIMCO) begin to actively short the U.S. Treasury market – an unprecedented situation in the history of the United States. And we're only a few weeks away now from the end of the Fed's so-called "QE2" debt-monetization binge. No one knows what will happen to the Treasury market or interest rates when the Fed steps away from the market bidding. And yet... despite all these things... the Volatility Index (the "VIX"), which tracks "fear" in the markets, recently broke down to new lows, showing total complacency in the equity markets. I have a simple prediction to make: A year from now, we'll be talking about how eerily calm the markets were before the end of QE2... and all the chaos that's happened since. When the chaos hits, you'll want to be invested in high-quality equities with pricing power and healthy dividends. There are two main reasons this group of stocks will protect you during inflation. First, these companies can raise prices to counter inflation. Second, they can raise their dividends faster than inflation. In The 12% Letter, editor Dan Ferris is dedicated to finding these very companies. In his portfolio, he has one company that is growing its dividend 23% a year (enough to double your income every three and a half years). Another is growing its dividend 12.3% a year (enough to double your income in six years). Yet another has grown its dividend 11.6% over the last 10 years. Building a portfolio of these relentless dividend growers will ensure you a super-safe cash flow that beats inflation. In addition to buying these dividend growers, Dan has five income secrets he's put together, called Black Market Income... These secrets include collecting income overnight and a trade he developed that takes direct advantage of the Fed's manipulation of bond yields (and allows you to collect double-digit income). Crux Note: To learn more about Black Market Income, click here... More from Porter Stansberry: Porter Stansberry: You must prepare for a crisis NOW Porter Stansberry: The two big reasons silver has been soaring Porter Stansberry: What every American needs to know about gold | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Don't count on a silver crash just yet Posted: 26 Apr 2011 01:07 AM PDT From SK Options Trading: ... A casual glance at [a long-term chart of silver] could leave an impression that history is going to repeat itself and silver prices are about to crash. However, in order to not only successfully identify bubbles, but also profit from them, one will need to know the tipping point. This is the point at which the bubble is unsustainable and begins to break down. There are many factors that contribute to the emergence of bubbles, and one would need to look at a myriad of factors to determine when a bubble may pop. We will focus on just one in this article, momentum. In finance, momentum is the empirically observed tendency for rising asset prices to continue to rise. We are attempting to gauge when silver may run out of momentum and when this bull market will turn into a bubble and ultimately pop. While some may consider it crude to study momentum as opposed to fundamentals, such as supply and demand, we feel it is vitally important... Read full article... More on silver: Jim Rogers issues an urgent warning on silver Don't even think about shorting silver until you see these charts Resource guru Sprott: Silver could go higher than almost anyone believes | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Silver Is Not in a Bubble - Yet Posted: 26 Apr 2011 12:56 AM PDT Sk Options Trading | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Austrian authorities reveal find of buried treasure Posted: 25 Apr 2011 10:54 PM PDT Austrian authorities reveal find of buried treasure A man turning dirt in his back yard stumbled onto buried treasure - hundreds of pieces of centuries-old jewelry and other precious objects that Austrian authorities described Friday as a fairy-tale find. By GEORGE JAHN Associated Press  This photo provided by Austria's federal conservation authority shows a ring that was among hundreds of pieces of ancient jewelry and other precious objects, that a man digging in his back yard stumbled upon. BETTINA SIDONIE NEUBAUER-PREGL B / AP This photo provided by Austria's federal conservation authority shows a ring that was among hundreds of pieces of ancient jewelry and other precious objects, that a man digging in his back yard stumbled upon. This photo provided by Austria's federal conservation authority shows a brooch that was among more than 200 rings, ornate belt buckles, gold-plated silver plates and other pieces, many encrusted with pearls, fossilized coral and other ornaments. They say the find is about 650 years old. BETTINA SIDONIE NEUBAUER-PREGL B / AP This photo provided by Austria's federal conservation authority shows a brooch that was among more than 200 rings, ornate belt buckles, gold-plated silver plates and other pieces, many encrusted with pearls, fossilized coral and other ornaments. They say the find is about 650 years old. A man turning dirt in his back yard stumbled onto buried treasure - hundreds of pieces of centuries-old jewelry and other precious objects that Austrian authorities described Friday as a fairy-tale find. Austria's department in charge of national antiquities said the trove consists of more than 200 rings, brooches, ornate belt buckles, gold-plated silver plates and other pieces or fragments, many encrusted with pearls, fossilized coral and other ornaments. It says the objects are about 650 years old and are being evaluated for their provenance and worth. While not assigning a monetary value to the buried bling, the enthusiastic language from the normally staid Federal Office for Memorials reflected the significance it attached to the discovery. "Fairy tales still exist!" said its statement. "Private individual finds sensational treasure in garden." It described the ornaments as "one of the qualitatively most significant discoveries of medieval treasure in Austria." The statement gave no details and an automated telephone message said the office had closed early on Good Friday. But the Austria Press Agency cited memorials office employee Karin Derler as saying the man came across the "breathtaking" objects years ago while digging in his back yard to expand a small pond. The weekly Profil magazine identified the man only as Andreas K. from Wiener Neustadt, south of Vienna, and said he asked not to be named. While he found the ornaments in 2007, Andreas K. did not report it to the memorials office until after rediscovering the dirt-encrusted objects in a basement box while packing up after selling his house two years ago, said Profil. The soil had dried and some had fallen off, revealing precious metal and jewels underneath. He initially posted photos on the Internet, where collectors alerted him to the potential value of the pieces, leading him to pack them in a plastic bag and lug them to the memorials office, the magazine said in its Friday edition. Neither Profil nor the memorials office statement said when Andreas K. first alerted Austrian authorities and it was unclear why they waited until Friday to announce the discovery. Memorials office president Barbara Neubauer told Profil the objects were a "sensational find." The magazine said the finder was not interested in cashing in on the trove and was considering loaning the collection to one of Austria's museums. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...dtreasure.html | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South Africa not profiting from gold and commodities boom Posted: 25 Apr 2011 10:15 PM PDT Roman Baudzus writes -- In spite of record commodity prices, South Africaandacute;s mining industry is experiencing serious difficulties. Infrastructure development in what was once the world's ... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 25 Apr 2011 09:11 PM PDT The following report is on major market indicators with commentary. Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 12,453.54 +186.79 after strong earnings were reported from several companies; mostly tech corporations. Volume was normal and momentum continued flat after trying to drop. Support is 12,400 and resistance is 12,500. Price broke out above the former double top posting a nice move above all moving averages. Expect more buying on Thursday to close the week as Friday is a holiday. More buying is in the cards for next Monday, but we are closing out the trading month at the end of next week; creating a small pause in rallies. S&P 100 Index: Closed at 593.02 +7.13 on normal volume and flat momentum. Price had a breakout with a bullish gap up. Price is above all moving averages, which is bullish. Support is the 20 -day average at 589.13 with resistance at 600.00. Expect more buying on Thursday and Monday with markets being closed this Friday. S&P 500 Index: Closed at 1330.36 +17.74 on flat momentum and normal volume. There was a nice bullish rally today on stronger earnings and better sales news from major companies. The negative credit news and other fundamental problems are being largely ignored. New support is 1325 and resistance is 1350, which we could see posted tomorrow or, Monday. More buying is ahead. Nasdaq 100 Index: Closed at 2357.76 +50.99 on normal volume and flat to up momentum. Price jumped up in huge gap of trading today from 2300 support to 2360 resistance. New higher resistance is now 2370 and support is 2350; a major number. This is the major, leading indicator signal for all stock indexes. After today's rally, expect more buying on Thursday and Monday after the three-day weekend holiday. We might experience major rallies until the middle of May. XAU Index: Closed at 222.78 +4.07 on flat to sideway momentum and firmer metal to shares ratio. Support and resistance is 225. This number has been hit numerous times with no solid break-through. However, as shares in the broader markets begin to rise in the next few days along with physical metals, the gold and silver shares should, too. Flat to slow until Monday when initial stronger buying should begin. 30-Year Bonds: Closed at 121.00 -0.47 on rising but toppy momentum. Stocks went up so bonds go down. The new resistance is the 200-day average at 122.90 with support at 120.43 on the 50-day and 120.22 on the 20-day. Price sits in the middle of a tight sandwich of moving averages. More selling ahead as stocks rise with the bond price going to 120.00 for Thursday and down more on Monday. Gold: Closed at 1500.40 +5.20 after touching a high on our forecast of 1507. The chart shows a full five wave rally is completed or, nearly completed. Next, we see an ABC sideways consolidation followed by another new rally for the spring; lasting probably until mid-May. Support is 1500 and resistance is 1507. Price is far above all moving averages. Fundamentals for gold continue to improve as negative conditions rise for other inverse trades. Expect choppy trading between 1495 to 1507, followed by new rallies above 1507 to higher numbers. Watch for new forecasts on gold next week after the holiday. Silver: Closed at 45.12 +2.22 as silver continues to rise like a rocket on both fundamentals and technicals. Momentum is up and resistance on May futures was touched at $45 today. However, we can expect more buy-side pressure at $48.50-$51.00 followed by a harder selling event of -$5 of more. Support is $45 and Resistance is $45.38. Watch for a mild ABC choppy consolidation followed by more buying toward $50. US Dollar: Closed at 74.37 -0.46 on falling momentum and supporting near new recent lows. Price is under all moving averages by far; 76.75 and 78.44. The Swiss, Canadian and Euro were all strong buyers today, rising and running from the dollar. Credit markets continue to deteriorate and the BRIC meetings excluding the USA were dedicated as to how to strategically escape from the dollar as a reserve currency. More and prolonged selling is ahead as Bernanke continues to print-deface-defame US Dollars, Notes and Bonds. Next lower support is 72.50 followed by 71.40 and then 70.00. A decisive sell under 70.00 holding price three times means we move into new lower values, which could shake the structure of all global markets. Crude Oil: Closed at 111.39 +1.37 after falling down to 105.55 earlier this week and then doing a rebound on newly announced fundamentals. And, we just switched to the June futures contract from May. Oil prices are now solidly above a longer range trading channel on a breakout. We have now had four closes above the top channel line. This signals more and stronger buying ahead with the next resistance at 112.50. Oil is now trading between 4110 and $114 for a trading range. After $112.50, next resistance is $115.00 followed by $120-125. All commodities rise faster with acceleration of inflation. CRB Index: Closed at 365.54 +2.75 on rising but flattening momentum (oil sold briefly) with resistance at 375. New support is 350. Our new objectives are 375, 385, and 400. The older high was 465+ in the middle of 2008, which we forecast will arrive again later this year on inflation, metals, grains and energy.         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $200 Silver and a 5-Digit Gold Price Posted: 25 Apr 2011 08:37 PM PDT ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold worked its way ten dollars higher by 2:00 p.m. Hong Kong time during their Monday afternoon...and then held steady until about 12:30 p.m. London time, before the not-for-profit sellers showed up. Whether this early trading action was new buying...or short covering...won't be known until the final open interest numbers are posted on the CME's website later this morning. I believe that London was closed on Monday...and pretty much all the overseas trading yesterday involved the New York-based bullion banks buying and selling on the Globex trading system...which they have access to anytime that the Comex is not open. They can enter the market any time they wish...and they were sure out stomping about yesterday. Anyway, gold was only down about five dollars from its peak going into the Comex open...and at precisely 9:30 a.m. Eastern, when the equity markets had just opened in New York, they pulled their bids...and the rest, as they say, is history. As soon as the selling pressure stopped, buying took gold back up above $1,510...but that number didn't hold...and silver sold off another five bucks going into the close. Gold closed down a hair from Thursday.
But it was silver that JPMorgan et al were after...and did they ever do a number on it. Both Ted and I agree that the big rise in silver during the first seven hours of trading in the Far East was probably a short covering rally...especially the two dollar jump shortly after midnight New York time. Then it appeared that the usual not-for-profit seller was there to sell silver down below forty-nine dollars...and from there it stayed pretty steady until precisely 9:30 a.m. Eastern when it, along with gold, were trashed. Silver got smacked for almost $3.50 before the bottom was in...and although silver recovered nicely from there...it only closed up about 40 cents on the day...instead of the $2.50 it would have closed up if 'da boyz' hadn't pulled their bids. If silver had closed up that $2.50...there would have been around $1 billion dollars worth of margin calls going out to the Comex short holders this morning. That was prevented from happening...and that's not the first time the bullion banks have pulled that stunt during the last week of trading.
The dollar fell below 74 cents shortly after Monday trading began in the Far East...but, once again, there was someone there to catch a falling knife...and the dollar gained 30 basis points in no time...hitting its high of the day late in the morning in the Far East, before rolling over and falling to its low of the day around 7:15 a.m. Eastern time. Then the dollar rallied another 30 basis points, before rolling over once again...closing the New York trading day a hair above the 74 cent mark. As I mentioned, there were two smallish 30 basis point rallies during the Monday trading day. The first had no impact on the gold and silver prices...but the second one is where gold and silver got it in the neck. If you can spot a pattern here, please let me know.
The big pounding of the day that both gold and silver took, began at precisely 9:30 a.m. when the equity markets opened, which really doesn't pass the smell test. The equity markets had been showing a down opening all night long...and I guess it only stands to reason that if you're going to pick a time to smash the metals, it would be at the open of trading. You wouldn't want the precious metals shares to outperform the rest of the equity markets, now would you? The gold shares were down the whole day...and the HUI closed down 2.59%...and the silver shares, with the odd exception, did poorly as well...even though the silver price finished solidly in positive territory. Everybody is trading like the top for the bull market in gold and silver is in...and nothing could be further from the truth.
The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 212 gold, along with 21 silver contract, were posted for delivery tomorrow. The biggest issuer and stopper in gold was JPMorgan...160 contracts issued, along with 144 contracts stopped. They were also the biggest issuer in silver as well. The link to all this activity is here. There was no change in the GLD ETF yesterday...but there was a huge addition to SLV...as 7,708,583 troy ounces were added. This is, without doubt, the largest daily addition that I can remember...and the total ounces of silver now held by SLV is at a new record high. Ted Butler feels that, based on the price action lately, the SLV ETF is owed anywhere between ten and twenty million more ounces. There was no report from the U.S. Mint yesterday. The Comex-approved depositories showed that no silver was added to their collective inventories on Thursday...but 757,190 ounces of silver were shipped out the door. With May deliveries coming up in less than five business days, one would think that they would be adding silver in preparation for delivering physical metal, but so far that has not been the case. The link to Thursday's action is here. I wasn't overly enthralled with Friday's Commitment of Traders report which came out on Friday. In silver, the Commercial net short position actually increased by 1,413 contracts, which is not what either Ted nor I were expecting...because it was obvious from the price action and the daily open interest numbers that the price rise was due to short covering. But Ted's explanation, once he had looked deep under the hood, was far more reassuring. The '4 or less' traders [read JPMorgan] had actually reduced their net short position by around 1,200 contracts...and the '5 through 8' bullion banks had reduced their short position by 1,100 contracts...for a total improvement of 2,300 contracts. But, as Ted pointed out, the reason the total net commercial short position rose by 1,413 contracts is because the raptors [the smaller commercials aside from the 'big 8'] sold 3,700 long contracts, erasing their previous 2,200 contract long position...and leaving the raptors short 1,500 contracts. The total net commercial short position in silver now sits at 263.5 million ounces. The '4 or less' traders are short 203.0 million ounces...and the '8 or less' traders are short 255.9 million ounces. These are the lowest short positions held by these traders in years...so it's obvious that the bullion banks are covering. The Commercial net short position in gold rose 12,860 contracts. The bullion banks are increasing their short positions in gold, at the same time as they're covering their short positions in silver. This is the first time that I've observed this dichotomy...and it's been going on for a while now. Under 'normal' circumstances, the open interest in both metals rise and decline together. It looks like they're controlling the rise in the gold price on one front...and trying to get out from under their silver short position on the other. The Commercial net short position in gold has now risen to 26.7 million ounces. The '4 or less' bullion banks are short 16.1 million ounces...and the '8 or less' bullion banks are short 23.6 million ounces. This is not a happy number...but I've seen worse. Will 'da boyz' pull the plug in gold? They can if they want to...but will they? How all this will work out in the end remains to be seen...but it's amazing to watch. Since last Tuesday's cut-off for last Friday's COT report, the action has been wild and woolly...both up and down. Today is the cut-off for this Friday's COT report...and Friday's report should be a sight to see. Here's Ted Butler's "Days to Cover Short Positions" graph that's courtesy of Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com. The decline in open interest in silver, along with the increase in open interest in gold, shows that gold o.i. is now 'catching up' with silver's open interest.
Before I get into my stories, here's one paragraph from Ted Butler's weekly review to subscribers on Saturday..."Here's another observation [about the silver market]. Those traders that we normally associate as being the 'hot, speculative money' are usually those in the managed money category [of the disaggregated COT report]...and in the small traders category. For the past two COTs, as the silver price rose by almost $5 an ounce, these traders were not net buyers, but net sellers. So all those stories about silver being driven higher by hot speculative buying were just that---stories. The buyers were primarily the big concentrated shorts. The good news is that these big shorts still have plenty to buy back." Here's a graph that Nick Laird sent me over the weekend. It's titled "Gold/Silver vs. 50 Historical Bubbles". You can see that the current bubbles in gold and silver hardly rate...especially when considered against the gold and silver 'bubbles' back in 1980. Use the 'click to enlarge' feature...and give the graph a quick look.
With no column on Saturday, I have quite a few stories to post today. Yes, I suppose we could get sold off from here, but the bullion banks would have to use gold as the hammer against silver. Richard Russell [Finally] Endorses Gold Manipulation Thesis. SLV ETF takes in 7,708,583 troy ounces. Interview with two Johns. Debunking Anti-Gold Propaganda. ¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeChina should cap forex reserves at 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars: China bankerHere's a story that was making the rounds over the weekend. It's another in what seems to be a never-ending series of stories that China is going to diversify out of the dollar. When are they actually going to do something about it, one wonders. The story is posted over at xinhuanet.com...and was filed from Beijing on Saturday...and I thank reader 'Charleston Voice' for sending it along...and the link is here.  How the Fed Bailed Out Super-rich Bankers' WivesHere's a neat 6-minute interview that was posted over at rollingstone.com late last week. Matt Taibbi had a fun sit-down with Eliot Spitzer the other night...and talked about the "Housewives" story. Matt says that Eliot is probably his favorite interview on the finance stuff because he knows this material so well, and always has interesting things to add. I thank reader Randall Reinwasser for sending along this cnn.com video clip...and the link is here.  EU poised for Greece crisis talksA delegation of leading European and international monetary officials are planning a crisis summit in Athens in May amid growing fears that Greece may default on its sovereign debt. George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, and other Greek officials have this weekend strongly denied rumours that Greece may be forced to restructure its debt imminently – possibly as early as this weekend. This story from The Telegraph on the weekend was courtesy of reader Roy Stephens...and the link is here.  Toyota Says No Full Production Until Year's EndToyota Motor will not return to pre-disaster production levels until the end of the year, the president of the Japanese automaker said Friday. Though Toyota's 17 plants in Japan escaped the disaster relatively unscathed, factory lines are working at only half volume here and at 40 percent overseas, as vital suppliers in Japan's worst-hit areas struggle to restart operations. I thank reader Phil Barlett for sending me this story out last Friday's edition of The New York Times...and the link is here.  UK nears Swiss tax dealUnited Kingdom citizens will have to hand over millions of pounds in backdated taxes on secret bank accounts, after it emerged that the Government is close to signing a disclosure deal with Switzerland. Any deal is likely to include a withholding tax, taken by the bank on dividend and interest payments, and a levy on previously untaxed income. This is another Roy Stephens offering...this one from the Sunday edition of The Telegraph...and the link is here.  Syria on the Edge of the Abyss: Assad's Regime Escalates Crackdown on ProtestersRoy Stephens' last offering of th |
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