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Saturday, April 30, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Save Your ASSets First

Gold World News Flash


In The News Today

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 03:53 PM PDT

My Dear Extended Family,

Gold at $1650 is in the basket. Formational breakouts are selectively happening in some precious metals shares.

I think I will celebrate by taking a nap, wake up and go with the kids to a traditional Italian restaurant for a bowl of wonderful pasta.

If JSMineset is a tad thin tonight know our hearts are full.

You are all protected from conditions over which you have no control. Your success is my joy!

Regards,
Jim

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Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Five so far this weekend.

Bank Closing Information
April 29, 2011

Community Central Bank, Mount Clemens, MI
The Park Avenue Bank, Valdosta, GA
First Choice Community Bank, Dallas, GA
Cortez Community Bank, Brooksville, FL
First National Bank of Central Florida, Winter Park, FL

http://www.fdic.gov/

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

For old time's sake.

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The next crisis? They are in crisis right now but generally without mention in the media.

Pension fund managers have a legal obligation to the pensioners. That is another reason for the hush-hush.

Are States' Pensions the Next Crisis?
Thursday, April 28, 2011

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Virginia's News & Advance reports, Are States' Pensions the Next Crisis?:

Just as America is finally showing signs of digging out of the financial meltdown and the Great Recession of 2008, there are already warning bells being sounded for the next possible scare: government pension programs.

Earlier this week, the Pew Center on the States issued the results of its fiscal stress test of the 50 state pension programs, and the results are troubling to say the least.

All told, the Pew center estimates that government pension funds and health care programs are underfunded by more than $1.2 trillion today, a clear sign that something must be done now to avoid a great deal of misery down the road.

Though the Pew study looked at pension funds during 2008 and 2009, the depth of the Great Recession, the results should serve as a wake-up call to political leaders across the nation, including here in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

The Pew center reports that 31 states are funding their government pension funds at levels below the point most experts consider safe, 80 percent of the plans expected needs.

More…


A Fairy Tale Ending?

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 02:07 PM PDT


Via Pension Pulse.

Over two billion people around the world watched the royal wedding on Friday. My hunch is that the overwhelming majority were women (guys aren't that into fairy tales). I have to admit I caught a glimpse of the royal wedding as it ended this morning and thought they were a beautiful couple. Kate looked so poised while William looked a bit nervous but happy.

The royal couple looks very much in love, which along with health is the most important thing in life. Without love and health, all the money in the world is meaningless. Whenever I look at William and Harry, I'm reminded of their mother and the summer of 1997. She died a couple months after I was diagnosed of multiple sclerosis (MS) and while her death was tragic, it helped distract me from my diagnosis and gain some perspective on life.

Opinions are divided on the royal wedding. Cynics will claim that it's a major distraction, opium for the masses to divert attention from the harsh reality of austerity in England. Royal watchers will claim that it's all about tradition and being proud of the royal family. I'm somewhere in between and look at it for what it is a boon for tourism.

But what's really amazing is how fast London has bounced back after the 2008 financial crisis, leading Brett Arends of MarketWatch to ask if it's the world’s hottest real-estate market?:

I hesitate to use the overplayed word “bubble.” But in the case of London property, it’s hard to avoid.

What’s happening here is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Markets are being impacted by housing-sales data along with fears over northern European economies and a stronger Japanese yen.

 

Look in the window of any real-estate agent here and you think people have gone crazy — and then you realize that the prices are in British pounds, and that to convert to dollars you have to add another 60%.

 

Half a million pounds ($800,000) for a one-bedroom condo with a small garden on the southern, unfashionable side of the river Thames? Really? And $2 million for a modest two-bedroom condo in Chelsea?

 

As John McEnroe used to say at Wimbledon, you cannot be serious.

 

While the rest of Britain grapples with austerity, falling real wages and budget cuts, London real estate — super-prime London real estate, the best of the best — is back in the grip of another mania.

 

According to an index maintained by high-end real-estate firm Knight Frank, prime central London prices are nearing and may even be surpassing the giddy levels seen at the peak a few years ago. The brokers’ windows tell the same story.

 

It’s like that whole Lehman thing never even happened.

 

What’s going on?

 

“London property is the ‘Swiss bank account’ of the 21st century,” Robin Hardy, an analyst at London investment firm Peel Hunt, explained to me. Rich people in places like Egypt, Syria and southern Europe are rushing to get their money away from the turmoil, and for want of a better alternative, they are plunking it down in the “millionaire’s playground” of central London.

 

“It’s seen as a relatively safe place to put your money if your objective is capital preservation,” he said. They think money is “safer invested in an apartment in Sloane Street than in a bank account in Damascus.”

 

Foxtons, a high-end real-estate agency, told me that 80% of its sales this year at its Sloane Square branch have come from overseas buyers.

 

This is just the latest twist to a story that’s been running for some time. Gulf sheikhs. Russian oligarchs. Newly rich Indian and Chinese tycoons. London has become a magnate for the international super-rich: a millionaire’s playground. Russian money has been flooding in for at least a decade. One hedge-fund manager here told me London property was a “laundromat for Russian money.”

 

You can see it in the fanciest shopping districts, from Jermyn Street and Old Bond Street.

 

The booms in oil and emerging markets have been very good for prices here for at least a decade. Great Britain, through generous tax treatment of foreign nationals, has cleverly encouraged the trend.

 

A friend of mine a few years ago described how a Gulf sheikh was steadily buying up more and more of her condo development just north of Hyde Park. The sheikh liked to come to London for two months every summer to escape the Gulf heat, and he liked to bring his extended family and entourage. He didn’t care much about price, and he wanted as many condos as he could get.

 

There are other factors at work. London has become the financial capital of Europe. The giant money machine has spread far beyond the old financial district of the City of London. High-powered hedge funds and secretive commodity firms crowd the alleys and lanes of Mayfair and the towers of redeveloped Docklands. The windfalls have long been seen as a major driver of property prices.

 

Housing supply is limited, especially in the best areas. London has tough zoning laws, so there is very little new development.

 

And you can also throw into the mix low interest rates. A friend explained how his grossly overpriced home cost him very little every year, because he is paying just 1% interest on a flexible mortgage.

 

To hear people tell it here, this miracle will go on indefinitely. Prices will keep rising skyward. You no longer encounter many bears of London property. Most have given up.

 

But there are a couple of wrinkles that should give people pause.

 

First, you see more and more dark windows. On Sunday I went to a pub with one of my oldest friends. He described how more and more properties in central London were simply unused most of the year. You’d look up at the windows as you walked down the street, and very few were lit up.

 

A recent study by Knight Frank found that one of the top reasons the international elite gave for selling a London home was simply that it was surplus to their needs.

 

The second concern is that more and more actual British are being crowded out of the city. Over dinners in the past 10 days, both a London member of Parliament and a top executive at a fund firm here have bemoaned the fact that young people can no longer afford to move into the usual London neighborhoods when they start their careers here. They’ve been priced out. Many of the middle-class are suffering the same fate. Ultimately, this simply becomes unsustainable. It will strangle the city’s vitality.

 

The third problem is that 1% interest rates will not last forever. Sooner or later they will have to rise, and when they do, a lot of home loans will become unmanageable as well as unrepayable. Happy times.

 

The fourth issue is one that often gets forgotten. In the age of the Internet and modern technology, the comparative advantages of big, expensive cities like London are actually in decline. Twenty years ago, if you wanted to run a hedge fund in the British Isles, you probably had to do it in London. That is no longer the case. It is a lot cheaper — and the quality of life much better — if you move out of town.

 

The fifth problem, though, is probably most ominous: the plunge in rental yields.

According to Knight Frank, while prime London sales prices have doubled in the past 10 years, prime London rents have risen by less than 10%. The net result is that landowners are getting a gross yield of maybe 3.6% on average, compared to more than 6% a decade ago. Conversations I’ve had — with renters and owners — suggest some are getting even less.

 

Once you subtract all the costs of buying and selling a home, maintenance, taxes and condo fees, some landlords are making very little — if anything.

 

As usual, the defenders of current prices are quick with a rebuttal: “But people aren’t investing for the yield,” they say. “They are investing for the capital gains!”

Alas for this argument, in a rational market, yields are the drivers of capital gains. The price of an asset goes up because the current owners are earning so much money that outsiders want in. The idea that people will keeping bidding up prices of an asset that makes no money is quixotic at best.

 

Will it turn? If so, when? It’s anyone’s guess. But for those living and working in Britain, the conclusions are pretty obvious. If I moved back to this country, I would avoid living and working in London if at all possible. And if I had to be in London, I’d rent.

If I had to live there, I'd rent too but I wouldn't live in London if you paid me all the hedge fund bonuses in the world! Loved visiting the city but it's way too overcrowded and outrageously overpriced. Blame the "Russian oligarchs" or the "Gulf sheiks", but at the end of the day there is a lot of hedge fund money in London that is bidding up prime real estate prices (that's how hedge fund managers compare penis sizes).

It's ridiculous and the same nonsense is happening in Canada. I see condos in Old Montreal selling at ludicrous prices. My buddy out in Vancouver just bought a $2 million home in the outskirts (modest house; no comparison to his $1 million dollar house in Mont-Royal here in Montreal) and could have easily made 10% if he flipped it after a month. he tells me rich Chinese are snapping up properties like crazy so they have have one foot outside China. Little do they know they're contributing to the Canada bubble fed by Canada's mortgage monster which will eventually explode.

Whatever the case, I've heard these stories of "real estate prices can only go up" forever in Greece. Guess what? When people need to sell, they sell, and that's what is happening right now in Greece, Spain, Portugal and even in the coast of France (many British sold their summer houses there for financial reasons). If you're looking for deals, forget London, you're better off looking at these countries first. When it comes to London's property market, I fear there will be no fairy tale ending.

**Please donate to Pension Pulse by signing up to PayPal and then clicking on the PayPal button at the top right-hand side of my blog under the pig.**


No silver lining left for users of the metal

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 02:05 PM PDT

By Carolyn Cui and Dana Mattioli
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, April 28, 2011

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870364310457629142293837363...

Silver investors are smiling about this year's rally in the price of the precious metal, now closing in on an all-time high. But silver's surge is hurting major users and even a few miners, including some blindsided by the relentless climb.

Nearly 75% of the world's silver supply is used to make film, jewelry, mirrors, batteries, solar panels, and other products. While companies have scrambled to find cheaper substitutes, reduce their silver use or lock in hedges against future price increases, the moves aren't enough to offset the pain.

"We're raising prices, indexing contracts, hedging and moving as fast as we can with the part of the portfolio that's not silver dependent," Eastman Kodak Co. Chief Executive Antonio Perez told analysts in an earnings call Thursday. Rising commodity costs, especially for silver used in film manufacturing, helped drag Kodak to a first-quarter net loss of $246 million.

Every $1 increase in the per-ounce price of silver subtracts $10 million to $15 million from the Rochester, N.Y., company's bottom line. Kodak increased motion-picture-film prices in March and might have to do that again, Mr. Perez warned. The company also is trying to shrink its dependence on silver.

... Dispatch continues below ...



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Wall Street Journal Publishes Lewis Lehrman's Call for the Gold Standard

In its April 26 edition The Wall Street Journal published an important essay by the Lehrman Institute's chairman, Lewis E. Lehrman, explaining why a gold-convertible dollar is critical to eliminating the shocking federal deficit.

"Experience and the operations of the Federal Reserve System compel me to predict that U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan's heroic efforts to balance the budget by 2015 without raising taxes will not end in success -- even with a Republican majority in both Houses and a Republican president in 2012. ...

"What persistent debtor could resist permanent credit financing? For a government, an individual, or an enterprise, 'a deficit without tears' leads to the corrupt euphoria of limitless spending. For example, with new credit the Fed will have bought $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries between November 2010 and June 2011, a rate of purchase that approximates the annualized budget deficit. Commodity, equity, and emerging-market inflation are only a few of the volatile consequences of this Fed credit policy."

To read more, and to sign up for The Gold Standard Now's free, noncommercial, weekly report, "Prosperity through Gold," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/gata



Silver closed Thursday at $47.52 a troy ounce, up $1.562, or 3.4%, and just short of the $48.70 record settlement reached in 1980. Adjusted for inflation, that record price would be equivalent to $139.88 today.

After skyrocketing 84% in 2010, silver prices have jumped another 54% so far this year. In comparison, gold is up 7.7%, hitting a new record of $1,530.80 an ounce on Thursday.

Much of the recent silver price jolt has been fueled by investors who are piling into exchange-traded funds and bullion as a way to hedge against inflation or currency declines.

But the latest surge overran expectations of some silver producers. As prices rose late last year, some miners stepped into the market to lock in profits.

U.S. Silver Corp., with several mines in Idaho, promised to sell 500,000 ounces at a fixed price of $27.50 an ounce -- or 20% of its projected silver output in 2011. Executives figured that would leave the Toronto company with a hefty profit margin.

But when prices kept soaring, U.S. Silver had to post more collateral. "I wouldn't have expected it to be this high, and I don't have any better crystal ball than the next person," says U.S. Silver CEO Tom Parker. "You can always look into the past and say that's a dumb decision. But at the time, it seemed to be a prudent thing to do."

U.S. Silver has no plans to hedge any more of its silver production at the current price.

At DuPont Co., silver is the largest metal cost in the unit that makes silver paste, which is needed for plasma TVs and other electronic products. DuPont is working on technologies to reduce or replace silver when possible, says David Miller, the division's president. "We're looking for alternatives," he says.

DuPont passes along changes in silver prices at the time of delivery. So far, customers are putting up with the jumps and haven't delayed orders.

Solar-panel maker Suntech Power Holdings Co. is trying to rev up production of solar cells that use copper instead of silver. A thin layer of silver is coated on the surface of cells because of its ability to conduct electricity.

The Chinese company last year introduced its "Pluto cell," made from copper costing $4.25 a pound. But 90% of Suntech's solar cells still require the use of silver.

Rory Macpherson, Suntech director of investor relations, says the company is trying to cut expenses elsewhere in its supply chain but will have to absorb some of the rise in silver prices.

Danish jeweler Pandora AS, which operates in 60 countries, raised prices early in this year's first quarter in order to stick to its profit-margin target of 40% for 2011, says Mikkel Olesen, the company's CEO. Still, as silver keeps climbing, Pandora is considering another round of price increases in the third quarter.

Beautiful Silver Jewelry, an online jewelry retailer, now is selling more items made from stainless steel or rhodium-plated material, in addition to its inventory of sterling silver. "We didn't anticipate prices rising quite this far," says Jane Ingraham, the San Diego company's owner.

The big winners as silver defies gravity include precious-metal refineries, where people sell silverware, old jewelry and industrial products that contain silver.

"We and every other refinery are all inundated with silver scrap business," says Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage Metals, which operates a refinery in Dallas. The amount of second-hand silver bought by the company is up by about 70% during the past six months. Dillon Gage recently bought two new furnaces to meet demand.

The influx of scrap silver and manufacturers' efforts to reduce reliance on silver eventually will restore gravity to the market, predicts Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS Ltd., a London metals consulting firm.

"But I don't think things will change very quickly because of silver's unique characteristics," he says. GFMS expects industrial demand for silver to grow at a 6.5% annual rate through 2015, propelled by emerging markets and the technology sector.

* * *

Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

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Canuc Resources Pursues Ecuador and Nova Scotia Gold Projects

Canuc Resources Corp. (TSX: CDA) has confirmed high-grade gold and the potential for large-tonnage, low-grade copper and gold mineralization at its primary asset, property in the historic Nambija gold mining district in southeastern Ecuador.

Last November Canuc took an option on the Mill Village gold property in southwestern Nova Scotia, which includes two past-producing mines. Canuc plans to begin surface and underground exploration at Mill Village in the next several weeks, financed by $2 million recently raised through a private placement.

To generate immediate income, Canuc is acquiring MidTex Oil and Gas Co., owner of a producing gas well and a lease on 320 acres in Stephens County, Texas.

Canuc's CEO, Gary Lohman, has more than 30 years of experience in the mining industry, primarily as a geologist, and the company's officers include similarly experienced people.

For more information about Canuc, please visit http://www.canucresources.ca/.



The Entire Week's Trading had the Look of Past Silver and Gold Price Peaks

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 01:30 PM PDT

Gold Price Close Today : 1,556.00
Gold Price Close 21-Apr : 1,503.20
Change : 52.80 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 4858.4
Silver Price Close 21-Apr : 4606.2
Change : 252.20 or 5.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 32.027
Gold Silver Ratio 21-Apr : 32.634
Change : -0.61 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.03122
Silver Gold Ratio 21-Apr : 0.03064
Change : 0.00058 or 1.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 170.19
Dow in Gold Dollars 21-Apr : $ 171.98
Change : $ (1.79) or -1.0%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.233
Dow in Gold Ounces 21-Apr : 8.320
Change : -0.09 or -1.0%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 263.68
Dow in Silver Ounces 21-Apr : 271.50
Change : -7.83 or -2.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,810.54
Dow Industrial 21-Apr : 12,505.99
Change : 304.55 or 2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,363.61
S&P 500 21-Apr : 1,337.38
Change : 26.23 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index : 73.050
US Dollar Index 21-Apr : 74.096
Change : -1.046 or -1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,874.90
Platinum Price Close 21-Apr : 1,816.50
Change : 58.40 or 3.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 794.45
Palladium Price Close 21-Apr : 768.85
Change : 25.60 or 3.3%


In my unmannerly haste and thoughtless last night I neglected to mention the poor tornado victims in Alabama, and urge y'all to pray for their relief. Our county borders on Alabama, and there were tornadoes all around us, even on the counties on either side of us.

I must apologize also that we were out of the office a large slice of today, attending a funeral not connected to the tornadoes, but just over in Alabama. Driving back into Tennessee every car on the four lane highway stopped and pulled over until the funeral procession passed. So did the men mowing their yards. If you want to know what kind of people live in Alabama, THAT kind of people.

Been rode so hard and put away so wet today I think my metaphor and simile tanks are plumb dry, but I'll try anyway.

What a week! After gobbling up 8.5% last week, SILVER chomped down another 5.5% this week, GOLD played catch-up with a 3.5% gain, and PLATINUM and PALLADIUM woke up, but something strange happened today. More later. Stocks gained this week, but not nearly as much as gold, while the Bernancubus torpedoed the dollar, which was not a good idea since it was already gunwales to the waterline. Alas, I ken not the wisdom of the mighty, and am such a rube that their cleverness appears to me only -- dare I reveal my own obtuseness in the face of their sophistication? -- garden variety stupidity,. Thus I grasp not how killing your own currency will help your economy. I told y'all I was obtuse.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today slowed its slide for the weekend. Today it lost only 7.1 basis points and came to rest on the ledge-lip of 73 at 73.05. Technically you must believe it is headed for 70.70 (2008 low) soon and 40 eventually, but WAIT! Remember that all currency exchange rates are played with by central bankers as wanton boys do play with flies. They love nothing better than to seduce a market all in one direction -- like all the dollar shorts/euro longs right now -- then reverse their field to punish all the trend followers. Oh, and to make the world fear them and believe they are doing something. Well, they ARE doing something, namely, what they are supposed to be doing: managing inflation expectations, so that the whole herd runneth not out of their phony money at the same time. Euro made another new high today, right now at 1.4807, but closed lower. After six days rising, that might not mean much, but could be a key reversal. Yen rose again, to Y81.19/$ (123.17c/Y100).

Stocks rose today. Dow added 47.23 to close at 12,810.54 and the S&P followed along, gaining 3.13 to 1363.61. Note, I beg, that despite these gains, stocks fell against silver and gold. I keep telling y'all that because I know your ears are dinned by all the mainstream, conventional, degreed, accredited, certified, MBA'd, polished, suited, and universally admired advisors, brokers, and media pundits. They all keep touting stocks for the same reason the man who owns the liquor store keeps that neon light in his window: he is selling his product. Or, look at it this way: when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. They have no screwdriver, no impact wrench, no saw, no Gorilla glue, no tacks, just the hammer of stocks. And with astonishing, nay, breathtaking ignorance they recommend you buy stocks even though STOCKS REMAIN IN A PRIMARY DOWN TREND. Besides, I've learned something in nearly 64 years: those who do not know talk, those who know, do, and talk not. Search out the fellow who is succeeding, never mind how spiffy he dresses and talks, and watch him. You might learn something. Fact is, nowadays when folks start flashing them degrees at me, I just yawn and look for a better game. They have all been taught to think, all right, but all wrong.

The GOLD PRICE today took off and by the time they were turning the key to lock Comex's doors, the gold price had risen a massive $25.20 to close at $1,556. No laggard, the SILVER PRICE rose 106.4c to 4858.4c at closing, yielding a gold/silver ratio of 32.027.

Then something very odd happened. The silver price was rocking along about 4850c -- after Comex closed, maybe 1:30 or 2:00 our time -- when suddenly it lost about 70 cents, to 4750. Fell clean through a trap door, and took the ratio to 32.655. No news story precipitated that, and at the same time the gold price ROSE, to $1,565-ish, as if somebody were doing a MASSIVE silver to gold swap all at once.

For silver that is lousy behavior, worse coming on the heels of this week's volatility. It certainly poses the first half of a key reversal, and it's up to silver to disprove that on Monday. Between silver and gold the entire week's trading had the look of past silver and gold peaks. Monday saw a new intraday high in the silver price -- 4982c -- and a new high closing ratio (31.99) -- but a 218c decline from high to low, even though Comex Monday closed higher than the previous trading day.

This hot and cold indecision may arise from nothing more than all the radiation pouring off the old 5000c high as the silver price braces itself to breach that barrier. But mayhap also it is that faltering and fluttering often seen at tops, like a baby bird flopping on the ground, trying to get back up in the air but out of strength. Today's unexplained silver price fainting spell doesn't build confidence. Just ask Dale Carnegie.

But mercy! What would have to happen to reverse silver? The 20 day moving average, tripwire of a decline, stands at 4286c, some five bucks below current price. And the silver price must break that line to turn down. Everything else I have said is mere suspicion and anticipation. Well, I will add that the silver price is more oversold than Barack Obama in 2008, and gold nearly so badly. But "oversold" can persist a long time (in some cases 4 years).

Mainly the ratio's action sets the inside of my head to itching. A new low, then a sudden rise (33.002 on 27 April), when it hasn't been doing that. And there's that parabola on silver's chart. All this implies that the road ahead is washed out someplace.

Here are some brackets: The gold price keeps on rallying as long as it closeth not under $1,505. 20 dma stands at 1,484, support at $1,445. Break that and it might reach $1,380. Upside you are looking now at $1,600 very soon, maybe higher.

The SILVER PRICE must not lose its grip on 4750c. Below that support shows up at 4400c, and the 20 dma at 4286c, then 3600c. I have no upside target for the silver price, and have not a clue how one might forecast same. Let's guess and say that of course 5000c, the 1980 high, will be tough to break. But what if silver breaks through? What then? A ratio at 28:1? Possible, I reckon, but can that happen without SOME reaction first?

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.


Australia hears on TV that there are no free markets, only interventions

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 01:16 PM PDT

9:15p ET Friday, April 29, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

This week Australian business journalist Peter Switzer interviewed fund manager Wesley Legrand of Grand Private Equities in Adelaide for the Sky News business channel and got from him not only some gold- and silver-friendly comments but a remark that sounded a bit familiar: "There are no free markets. There are only interventions. It happens on a daily basis." (See http://www.gata.org/node/6242.)

It has taken GATA a long time but maybe the word is getting around.

Legrand's comment comes at 9 minutes and 25 seconds into the interview, but it's all worth listening to. It's a bit more than 11 minutes long and you can watch it at the Switzer Internet site here:

http://www.switzer.com.au/video/legrand-april28/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Join GATA here:

World Resource Investment Conference
Sunday-Monday, June 5-6, 2011
Vancouver Convention Centre East
Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

http://cambridgehouse.com/conference-details/world-resource-investment-c...

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
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Wall Street Journal Publishes Lewis Lehrman's Call for the Gold Standard

In its April 26 edition The Wall Street Journal published an important essay by the Lehrman Institute's chairman, Lewis E. Lehrman, explaining why a gold-convertible dollar is critical to eliminating the shocking federal deficit.

"Experience and the operations of the Federal Reserve System compel me to predict that U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan's heroic efforts to balance the budget by 2015 without raising taxes will not end in success -- even with a Republican majority in both Houses and a Republican president in 2012. ...

"What persistent debtor could resist permanent credit financing? For a government, an individual, or an enterprise, 'a deficit without tears' leads to the corrupt euphoria of limitless spending. For example, with new credit the Fed will have bought $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries between November 2010 and June 2011, a rate of purchase that approximates the annualized budget deficit. Commodity, equity, and emerging-market inflation are only a few of the volatile consequences of this Fed credit policy."

To read more, and to sign up for The Gold Standard Now's free, noncommercial, weekly report, "Prosperity through Gold," please visit:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/gata



China May Buy $1 TRILLION of Gold: Bloomberg

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 01:16 PM PDT

Bloomberg today quoted an analyst who says China may use part of their $3 trillion in foreign reserves to buy $1 trillion dollars worth of gold.
China has been diversifying away from the dollar, and into commodities and other, sounder currencies for years now. Such a large amount would signal a sharp rebuke to the dollar's status as reserve currency, to say the least.
Bloomberg:
China's Gold Reserves

China, which has just 1.6 percent of its reserves in gold, may invest more than $1 trillion in bullion, [Michael Pento of Euro Pacific Capital] said. "China wants to be an international player, and they need to own more gold than they currently have."
..."China is out to have more gold than America, and Russia is aspiring to the same," [Robert] McEwen, [the chief executive officer of producer U.S. Gold Corp] said yesterday in an interview in New York. "When you have debt, you don't have a lot of flexibility. China wants to show its currency has more backing than the U.S."

...China, with more than $3 trillion in foreign-currency reserves, plans to set up new funds to invest in precious metals, Century Weekly reported this week. Russia purchased 8 tons of gold in the first quarter.
Gold and silver prices may dip for a little while, and bears will declare the bubble popped (after a one-week correction, usually). Then the uptrend will continue, intact. And they'll say, "bubble! bubble bubble bubble bubble bubble!", again.
And gold bugs will be laughing all the way to the vault.
More Here..


The Saddest Commentary I know of on the United States of America; Requiescat in Pace

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 11:50 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] The Dollar's Tombstone should be engraved with not only the above words, but with an addendum carved below that stating: "MURDERED by THE FEDERAL RESERVE" in cooperation with the imbeciles who held public office at that time of its demise. ...


Doug Casey: Precious Metals Vs. The USD

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 11:12 AM PDT


An interview with Karen Roche of The Gold Report

Doug Casey: Precious Metals vs. the USD

One sure upshot of the quantitative easing money flooding the stock market will be further distortions, chaos and unpredictability that make the value-investing proposition difficult, if not impossible, according to Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey. On the eve of a sold-out Casey Research Summit in Boca Raton, Florida, Doug returns to The Gold Report. In this exclusive interview, he warns, "Like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator."
The Gold Report: When the average investor turns on the news, even on financial channels, they hear that the U.S. economy is in the best shape it's been in for three or four years. While the experts say the recovery is slower than anticipated, they expect its slow recovery will equate to a long, slow growth cycle similar to that after World War II. You have a contrary view.

Doug Casey: The only things that are doing well are the stock and bond markets. But the markets and the economy are totally different things – except, over a very long period of time, there's no necessary correlation between the economy doing well and the market doing well. My view is that the market is as high as it is right now – with the Dow over 12,000 – solely and entirely because the Federal Reserve has created trillions of dollars, as other central banks around the world have created trillions of their currency units. Those currency units have to go somewhere, and a lot of them have gone into the stock market.

As a general rule, I don't believe in conspiracy theories, and I don't believe anything's big enough to manipulate the market successfully over a long period. At the same time, the government recognizes that most people conflate the Dow with the economy, so it is directing money toward the market to keep it up. Of course, the government wants to keep it up for other reasons – not just because it thinks the economy rests on the psychology of the people, which is complete nonsense. Psychology is just about the most ephemeral thing on which you could possibly base an economy. It can blow away like a pile of feathers in a hurricane.

TGR: So, you're saying we're confusing the market's performance with the economy's performance?

DC: Yes. The fact is that the economy itself is doing very badly. The numbers are phonied up. I spend a lot of time in Argentina. Anybody with any sense knows you can't believe the numbers coming out of the Argentinean Government Statistical Bureau, nor can you (any longer) believe the numbers that come out of Washington D.C. The inflation numbers consider only the things the government wants to look at and are artificially low. It's the same with the unemployment numbers. None of these things is believable.

TGR: Isn't the unemployment figure a lagging indicator of a rebounding economy?

DC: If you look at the way unemployment was computed until the early 1980s – something that John Williams from ShadowStats does – the numbers would indicate about 20% unemployment today. Besides, even while the population keeps rising, the number of people reported as actually working is level or even lower. Most indicators of the economic establishment, in my view, don't really make any sense. GDP, for instance, includes government spending – much of which amounts to paying some people to dig ditches during the day and other people to fill them in at night. So-called "defense" spending is almost totally wasted capital. The practice of economics today is pathetic and laughable.

TGR: So, the economy is not rebounding?

DC: No. My take on this is that we entered what I call the "Greater Depression" in 2007. And now, because the government has printed up trillions of dollars in the last couple of years, we're in the eye of the hurricane. We've only gone through the leading edge of the storm. People think this will just be another cyclical recovery like all the others since WWII. But it's not. It's going to wind up with the currency being destroyed. It's going to be a disaster… a worldwide catastrophe.

TGR: You indicated that the government is using these mass infusions of made-up money to prop up the stock market due to the psychological factor – that people will think the economy's doing well because the market is doing well. However, we hear that a lot of that money has been caught up in the banks. Would you comment on that?

DC: As I said, that money has to go somewhere. The banks have been borrowing from the Fed at something like 0.5% and investing it in government securities at 2%, 3% or 4%, depending on the maturity. So, much of that money has been a direct gift to the banks; and they're basically making an arbitrage spread of 2%–4%. So, yes, that's happening with some of the money. Still, it doesn't all just sit in these Treasury securities. A great deal of it, inevitably, goes into the stock market.

TGR: You also said that psychology isn't the only reason the government wants to see the stock market go higher.

DC: Right. Pension funds have a great deal of their assets in stocks. Certainly, many funds run by government entities, such as the state and city employee pension funds, are approaching bankruptcy despite the fact that the Fed has driven interest rates to historic lows, artificially pumping up both stocks and bonds. And, I might add, keeping property prices higher than they would be otherwise. When interest rates rise eventually – and they will go up a lot – it'll be something to behold in the markets.

TGR: You mentioned John Williams who's in your speaker lineup for the Casey Research Summit, The Next Few Years. Another of your speakers is Stansberry Associates Founder Porter Stansberry, who's been making two points about the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. One point he makes in his The End of America video concerns the quantitative easing (QE) you mentioned –those trillions of dollars. But Porter also anticipates the U.S. government announcing a devaluation of the currency similar to what England did in 1970. Do you see that type of scenario occurring, as well?

DC: When the U.S. government last officially devalued the dollar in August 1971, it had been fixed to $35 per ounce to gold. In other words, before that, any foreign government could take the dollars it owned and trade them in at the Treasury for gold. Nixon devalued the dollar by raising it to $38/oz., and then to $42/oz. It was completely academic, anyway, because he wouldn't redeem gold from the Treasury at any price.

But because the dollar isn't fixed against anything now, the government can't officially devalue it. It's a floating market. The government's going to devalue the dollar by printing more of the damn things and letting them lose value gradually – actually the loss will no longer be gradual, but quite fast from here on out. But it's not going to do so formally by re-fixing the dollar against some other currency or against gold. I'm not sure Porter's phrasing it in the best way, but he's quite correct in his conclusion and his prescriptions as to how to profit from it. At this point, the dollar is nothing more than a floating abstraction, an IOU nothing on the part of a manifestly bankrupt government.

TGR: Another abstraction is the fact that the Treasury says the money it is printing has a multiplier effect when it gets into the U.S. economy, so it can pull those dollars back when the time comes. Is that a viable alternative to offset the devaluation caused by printing more money?

DC: You have to look first at the immediate and direct effects of what the government's doing, and then at the delayed and indirect effects. And sure, just as it's injecting all this money into the economy – mainly by the Fed buying U.S. government bonds – theoretically, it can take it out of the economy by doing the opposite. But I just don't see that happening.

TGR: Why not?

DC: One of the reasons is that the U.S. government, itself, is running annual trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see. I think those deficits will go higher – not lower. So, where's that money going to come from? Where will it get trillions of dollars to fund the U.S. government every year?

China isn't going to buy this paper, and Japan will be selling its U.S. government paper because, if nothing else, it'll need to buy things to redo the northeast part of the country. Nobody else is going to buy that trillion-dollar deficit either, so it'll have to be the Federal Reserve. In fact, the Fed will have to buy much more and, therefore, create more money. That's what happens.

TGR: This currency crisis isn't unique to the U.S. You just brought up Japan. And aren't all the European countries doing the same thing?

DC: The U.S., unfortunately, is not unique. This is going to be a worldwide catastrophe. It's been a disaster for every country that's done this in the past – Zimbabwe, Germany, Hungary, Yugoslavia and countries in South America – but those were within only those particular countries. In most of those cases, people never trusted their governments; so, they had significant assets outside the country in a form other than the local currency. The problem now is that the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and all of these central banks own USDs as the backing for their own currencies. All these other countries will wind up finding that they don't have any assets after all. That's going to happen all over the world.

TGR: With countries around the globe facing the same issue, should anyone hold currencies?

DC: No. Sure, you need local currency to go to the store and buy a loaf of bread. But for liquid assets you're trying to save, it's insane to own currencies at this point because they're all going to reach their intrinsic value. I've been recommending for many years that people buy gold and own gold for their savings – serious capital they want to put aside in liquid form. With gold now over $1,500/oz. and silver at $48, people who followed that advice have made a lot of money. That's the good news. The bad news is that very few people have done so. Newbies to the game are paying $1,500/oz. for gold. It's going higher, but it's no longer the bargain that it was. The important thing to remember, though, is that gold is the only financial asset that's not simultaneously someone else's liability. That's why it's always been used as money and why it's likely to be reinstituted as money.

TGR: From your viewpoint, how does a person with any wealth preserve it during this tumultuous period other than by investing in gold?

DC: Frankly, I don't know. I own beef and dairy cattle, which are a good place to be; but that's a business, and it's not practical for most people. I think it boils down to gold.

TGR: But what investments should they be looking at these days?

DC: There really aren't investments anymore. With trillions of newly created currency units floating around the world, things will become very chaotic and unpredictable shortly. It's very hard to invest using any kind of Graham-and-Dodd methodology when things are that chaotic. Whether you like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator in the years to come. A speculator is somebody who tries to capitalize on politically caused distortions in the marketplace. There wouldn't be many speculators, or many of those distortions in the marketplace, if we lived in a free-market society. But we don't.

TGR: So, speculation will supplant value investing?

DC: Well, investing is best defined as allocating capital in a way that it reliably produces more capital. The government is going to make that quite hard in the years to come with much higher taxes, much higher inflation and draconian regulations. You will actually be forced to speculate. That's a pity, from the point of view of the economy as a whole. But I kind of like it, in a way. Few people know how to be speculators, so I should be able to make a huge amount of money in the next few years. Unfortunately, it'll be at a time when most people are losing their shirts. But I don't make the rules. I just play the game.

TGR: As you look over the next year or two with your speculator hat on, what sectors do you expect to experience the most distortion and, therefore, offer the most opportunity for the speculator?

DC: One sure bet is the collapse of the U.S. dollar. Always bet against the USD and you'll be on the winning side of the trade. A very direct way to make that bet is by shorting long-term U.S. government bonds because, eventually, interest rates will go to the moon, which means bond prices will collapse.

You can also look at the precious metals because, at some point, when people panic into them, their price curves will go parabolic. Mining stocks are likely to draw a lot of money, so they could go wild as they have many times over the last 40 years.

TGR: Your summit has presentations scheduled on silver, gold, currencies, Asia, real estate, agriculture and even more. What do you expect to be the major takeaway this time?

DC: What we're facing now is something of absolutely historic importance – the biggest thing that's gone on in the world since the Industrial Revolution. Many things will be completely overturned in the years to come. What's happening now in the Arab world, with all of these corrupt kleptocracies being challenged and overthrown, is just the beginning. We haven't seen the end of this in any of these countries – Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Algeria. Of course, Saudi Arabia will be the big one. Everything's going to be overturned. And all these stooges that the U.S. government has been supporting for years could very well lose their heads. It's going to be the most tumultuous decade for hundreds of years, bigger than what happened in the 1930s and 1940s.

TGR: Any last things you'd like to tell our readers?

DC: Yeah. Hold on to your hats. You're in for a wild ride.


Bernanke Falls Flat

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:44 AM PDT

By: John Browne Friday, April 29, 2011 Despite loud huzzahs from a variety of boosters who proclaimed that Chairman Bernanke spoke with gravitas and wisdom at the first ever Federal Reserve press conference, the wider investing public clearly saw the performance as unconvincing. During and immediately after the proceedings the prices of gold and silver rose strongly to new highs as the U.S. dollar plummeted. The affair seemed to solidify the understanding that Bernanke and his cohorts have no intention whatsoever to reverse the current trend of inflation and a weakening dollar. With all the preliminaries swept away, it appears that the great dollar slide that we have long feared will not be interrupted. In the last year alone, the dollar has fallen 25 per cent against the Swiss Franc, (the gold standard of fiat currencies) – with one quarter of that decline coming since the beginning o...


Monthly Gold Charts - April 2011

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:44 AM PDT

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Gold put in a stunning performance for the month of April taking on $117 for a gain of over 8%. The following chart is an inflation adjusted chart using the government's official CPI numbers ( not that they are any good but they at least serve to give us a view of where the metal should be priced if it kept up with even those fairy tale figures). I should note here that as a general principle, once a market takes out a 75% Fibonacci retracement level, it almost inevitably recaptures the entire move from whence the calculation began. In plain speech, that means gold is now firmly on target to reach at least $1750. ...


U.S. Economy — The Big Picture

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:43 AM PDT

Dear CIGAs,

A mess by all accounts—and seemingly getting messier.

As we have been saying for some time, U.S. economic growth is stuck in the slow lane.  Very slow lane.  There are few signs of any significant lane changing ahead.

We have seen a serious slide in the American standard of living over the past three years, since the beginning of the recession.  The slide can be measured in many ways.  Food stamps recipients have increased by 48 percent and the cost of the program ballooned by 80 percent  Medicaid recipients are up 17 percent and program  costs are up 36 percent.  Welfare recipients are up 18 percent, and program costs up 24 percent.  That isn't the kind of growth that's good for any economy!

Looking ahead, we expect the standard of living decline to continue for up to another seventeen years.  Our economy and society are substantially changed, but the change to date is moderate compared to the magnitude of change ahead.  In 2018, the U.S. will be a much poorer country than it was in 2008.

We envision the average family spending a higher percentage of income on food and shelter.  People will retire at 75 years of age…not 65.  Many may not be able to retire.  Many retirees will have to re-enter the work force as their savings and pensions are diminished in buying power.  The streets will be filled with more poor and homeless.  The dollar will continue its decline. Gold and other commodities will continue to rise in price.  All of these are symptoms of a decline in the public's standard of living.  Unfortunately, we expect it to last for quite a while.

If it is any solace, the U.S. does not stand alone in the economic muck.  Japan has been going through the doldrums for almost twenty years now and that sorry state of affairs will likely continue for another decade.  Europe's standard of living is moving in lockstep with the U.S.  We give the Europeans, like the U.S., a poor seventeen year prognosis.  To us, it looks like the developed world is 'un-developing."  By 2020, expect to see a more humble developed world, viewing itself differently, playing a lesser leadership role, and having a vastly different view of the use of debt to create prosperity in society.

Labor in the Big Picture

The U.S. has big problems on this front.  The country needs to employ more than 2 million new workforce entrants every year.  Plus, there are millions who lost jobs in the last three years who still need to be rehired.  How does the U.S. deal with challenges like this in a situation of slowing economic growth?  The reality is a very difficult employment outlook for current and future U.S.-born workers, especially those with minimal education and skills, and for immigrants with inadequate English fluency.

Conversely, the jobscape looks brighter for the educated and skilled, especially individuals in the fields of computer science, electronic engineering, mathematics, geology, energy science, and oil field engineering.  The job market also appears better for individuals in some low-paying retail jobs and other service industries who demonstrate good attitudes and a willingness to work.

The U.S. employment picture is changing and it has become necessary for the labor force to have higher skill and education levels in order to compete.  The U.S. still has a comparative advantage over other countries in areas involving technology and skilled labor.  The construction jobs that kept so many laborers working for the past two decades are gone.  We don't see them returning for many years.  Moreover, there is little unfilled demand for factory workers at high salaries and government employees who receive secure pay and rising benefits.

What can our erstwhile politicians do for us?  Other than utter the usual platitudes, don't expect much.  For them, the big picture isn't rosey at all.  If employment growth is a key to getting re-elected, the boys and girls in Congress are in difficult straits.  When the job situation does not improve, expect them to hit the panic button in late 2011.  Their anxiety will generate interest in extending unemployment benefits along with food supplement and other social programs.  All intended, of course, to encourage voters to view them more favorably.  But, in the process, will run up more debt.

The Big Picture — The Risk of Big Government Statism

History has shown that it takes at least a decade for a country to get back on its feet again after defaulting on its debts or losing its reserve currency status.  Washington appears oblivious to this huge and looming risk.  We suggest policymakers consider what happened to Argentina as an example of how to destroy a country's standard of living.  The Peronists in Argentina took a once-proud country and have driven it to its knees.  When they could find no buyers for their government debt their crowning stupidity was forcing pension funds to buy government bonds.  They have stooped to highly destructive measures that will be felt for a long time in order to delay a day of reckoning by a short time .  This is what irresponsible politicians do.

Look for similar events to occur in the U.S. and in Europe.  Specifically, there is a very large risk that the U.S. will engage in programs such as making citizens and pensions buy government bonds, or legally forcing US. residents to turn in their gold, as was the case during the Great Depression of the 1930s.  There are other tactics they can employ that will result in bigger government and bureaucrats within government agencies usurping legislative power from the legislative branch.  Such things are already happening.

Fortunately, the public is starting to resist such behavior.  We predict an intensifying battle ahead for control of public opinion by big government and small government advocates.  But unfortunately, close to half of the population either pays no federal income tax or gets more assistance from the federal government than they pay in taxes.  That's hardly a formula for survival.  It's more like a forumla for collapse. 

The latest U.S. Treasury data (2008) from about 140 million income tax returns exposes the progressive nature of the tax system.  The argument that the rich do not pay their fair share has serious flaws.  In 2008, the top 1 percent earners paid 38 percent of total federal individual income taxes.  The top 5 percent paid over 58 perecent of the total.  About 52 million filers paid no federal income tax and many millions more did not even file a tax return.

Summarizing The Big Picture

The U.S. and European standard of living will fall in the coming years, and perhaps for two decades.  We are only three years into the decline.  Government officials will try to slow the decline by depreciating their currencies to improve exports.  This is already causing oil, gold, and foreign investments to rise in U.S. dollar terms and these trends will continue.

Here and in Europe, government bonds will be harder to sell.  The search for revenues and a desire to shrink deficits will prod governments into cutting defense and social expenditures, as well as raise taxes.  In the U.S., earners in the top 10 percent (those with incomes of about $113,000 and up) will bear the brunt of the increases.  The top 3 percent of U.S. earners currently pays more than half of U.S. individual income taxes.  This situation will eventually cause many high-income earners to leave the U.S. and seek to earn or invest their money abroad, thereby further decreasing the tax base of the country.

The wealth of the nation will fall.  Investors should protect themselves.  It is not too late 

With So Much Economic "Slack," Where is Inflation Coming From?

It's a combination of key factors:

● U.S. money supply growth

● Money supply and credit growth in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, India, Brazil, and other countries in the emerging world.

These factors are rapidly adding liquidity to the global financial system.  The liquidity is finding its way into asset and commodity prices.  This has been our long-term view.

Credit growth in the emerging world is a big reason why prices are rising, and one that does not get enough press.  Money supply growth alone without the credit growth would not create inflation.  The developed world banking system is weak.  Loan creation isn't happening.  But credit growth is booming in the developing world, especially Brazil, India, and China.

These dynamics explain why inflation is now booming in the developed world.  We have been saying for some time that inflation would first arrive in the emerging markets and then migrate to the developed world.  This has happened.

Our next prediction in this string of events is that QE3 will take place in order to combat the slack in the U.S. job market.  Any delay would slow down economic growth and employment.  With an election approaching, you can bet there will be strong pressure from politicians for QE3.

While we are in a predictive mood, we'll add that investors, seeing more QE (and more government), will send the price of U.S government bonds lower, and currency markets will continue to mark down the value of the U.S. dollar.  This will create a downward spiral of declining dollar and bonds as people around the globe reduce their exposure in favor of investments such as those in our recommendations below.  You will witness a continuing vicious cycle until Washington decides to tighten the belt substantially and decrease its budget deficit.  Only with a real commitment to fiscal discipline that becomes obvious to the markets can the dollar stabilize and U.S. government bonds once again be considered a genuine store of value for investors.

Sign of the times: The International Monetary Fund predicts that China will surpass the U.S. as the world's largest economy by 2016.

Our Current Recommendations

We've been seeing the current string of events coming for years and have repeatedly recommended selling bonds and buying gold, oil and food-related commodities.  This same view along with our close monitoring of world markets have led to our persistent predictions of inflation.  U.S. investors should continue to protect themselves by owning other currencies along with gold, oil, and foreign stock markets.  Avoid U.S. bonds.

It's interesting to note that in addition to individuals, countries are still buying gold.  Russia bought 600,000 ounces last quarter  We remain very bullish on gold.  Gold is acting very well, technically near $1,500 per ounce, and it looks as if it's poised to move above $1,600 and $1,700 per ounce soon.

Please see the table below for our current and closed recommendation.

Investment

Date

Date

Appreciation/Depreciation

Recommended

Closed

in U.S. Dollars

Commodity Market Recommendations

Corn

4/20/2011

Open

-1.5%

Gold

6/25/2002

Open

+371.1%

Oil

2/11/2009

Open

+214.0%

Corn

12/31/2008

3/3/2011

+81.0%

Soybeans

12/31/2008

3/3/2011

+44.1%

Wheat

12/31/2008

3/3/2011

+35.0%

Currency

Recommendations

Short

Japanese Yen

4/6/2011

Open

-4.8%

Long

Singapore Dollar

9/13/2010

Open

+8.9%

Long

Thai Baht

9/13/2010

Open

+8.3%

Long

Canadian Dollar

9/13/2010

Open

+8.1%

Long

Swiss Franc

9/13/2010

Open

+15.3%

Long

Brazilian Real

9/13/2010

Open

+8.3%

Long

Chinese Yuan

9/13/2010

Open

+3.8%

Long

Australian Dollar

9/13/2010

Open

+16.8%

Short

Japanese Yen

09/14/2010

10/20/2010

-3.3%

Equity Market

Recommendations

India

4/6/2011

Open

-2.2%

Malaysia

4/6/2011

Open

+.08%

Canada

3/24/2011

Open

+1.1%

Colombia

9/13/2010

Half Original Position sold

+3.4%

Australia

2/15/2011

Open

+8.6%

Japan

2/15/2011

Open

-8.3%

U.S.

9/9/2010

3/11/2011

+18.1%

Canada

12/16/2010

3/11/2011

+7.9%

South Korea

1/6/2011

3/3/2011

-2.9%

China

9/13/2010

1/27/2011

+5.0%

India

9/13/2010

1/6/2011

+7.9%

Singapore

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+4.8%

Malaysia

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+1.3%

Indonesia

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+9.5%

Thailand

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+11.9%

Chile

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+8.9%

Peru

9/13/2010

12/16/2010

+32.2%

Bond Market

Recommendations

30 YR Long Term

U.S. Treasury Bond

08/27/2010

10/20/2010

0.00%


Gold on Track to Reach $1860 - $1920 by Mid-year

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:07 AM PDT

The Golden Parabola is continuing to follow the cycle of the 70's Gold Bull as the U.S. Dollar is further devalued against Gold to balance the budget of the United States at this point in the "paper currency cycle" where Global ... Read More...



Gene Arensberg: Significant commercial short covering for silver

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:05 AM PDT

6p ET Friday, April 29, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

The Got Gold Report's Gene Arensberg reports tonight that the large commercial shorts began substantially covering their positions in silver this week even as the price rose sharply. The implication is that real metal is overrunning the paper market. Arensberg's commentary is headlined "Significant Comex Commercial Short Covering for Silver" and you can find it in the clear at the Got Gold Report here:

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/04/significant-comex-commercial-short-...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



Gold Luring Central Banks Buyers May Extend Record Rally

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:02 AM PDT

By Pham-Duy Nguyen
April 29 (Bloomberg) — Central banks that were net sellers of gold a decade ago are buying the precious metal to reduce their reliance on the dollar as a reserve currency, signaling demand that may extend a record rally in prices.

As developing countries accelerate purchases, gold may reach $2,000 an ounce this year, compared with a record of $1,569.80 today in New York, said Robert McEwen, the chief executive officer of producer U.S. Gold Corp. Euro Pacific Capital's Michael Pento, who correctly predicted gold's highs for the past two years, forecasts a 2011 high of $1,600.

[source]


Doug Casey: Precious Metals vs. the US Dollar

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 10:02 AM PDT

An interview with Karen Roche of The Gold Report One sure upshot of the quantitative easing money flooding the stock market will be further distortions, chaos and unpredictability that make the value-investing proposition difficult, if not impossible, according to Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey. On the eve of a sold-out Casey Research Summit in Boca Raton, Florida, Doug returns to The Gold Report. In this exclusive interview, he warns, "Like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator." The Gold Report: When the average investor turns on the news, even on financial channels, they hear that the U.S. economy is in the best shape it's been in for three or four years. While the experts say the recovery is slower than anticipated, they expect its slow recovery will equate to a long, slow growth cycle similar to that after World War II. You have a contrary view. Doug Casey: The only things that are doing well are the stock and bond markets. But the markets an...


What's Driving Silver Prices?

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:57 AM PDT

The virtues of gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are being addressed far and wide. My readers know the steady drumbeat of praise that is reaching a crescendo for the white metal scares the hell out of me. The driving forces behind silver's price come from investors, industrial demands and a global shortage. The world simply is using more silver than the mines produce and new silver discoveries are becoming difficult to find. These factors are becoming truisms for public consumption.

A parabolic rise has formed in silver as gold advances on to our measured target of $1600. Please note that at these times of extreme optimism volatile pullbacks become more prevalent. Parabolic rises must be approached with caution. Silver has rallied moving exponentially while gold is still moving linear.This metric of $1600 gold is important to us as it may signal a profit taking opportunity for precious metals. Silver is in a roaring uptrend and has now exceeded my late January target of $40. We believe that high quality silver mining shares like SIL will catch up to silver bullion even as the silver bullion price may stall or consolidate. There will be unavoidable pullbacks in silver's secular uptrend and it would not be wise initiating long positions at these extremely overbought levels. Silver has a very high probability of shaking out investors as pullbacks follow overbought conditions.

Investors have been scrambling to own silver and gold. What a difference a few weeks make. In July of 2010 and January of 2011, we saw two major buying opportunities for precious metals investors to position themselves at discount prices. Now gold and silver prices are selling at a premium. Silver is reaching extremely risky levels, yet miners are still poised to breakout. Remember that I am recommending partial profits if your winnings enable you to play with the house's money and you are still holding silver from our August Buy Signal.

Other readers who have not been able to build a position can wait for the inevitable pullback as additional buying opportunities. From my experience it is prudent to wait for technical corrections before getting aggressive with any commodity. We firmly believe that any corrections on the way up will represent more reasonable entry points on this uptrend. Always remember that parabolic rises can encounter severe downturns particularly in silver which tends to be volatile. Let's wait for long term support and a shakeout to reinitiate our short term positions.

One of the reasons for such volatile action in the white metal is the large short position in silver taken by major financial institutions such as JP Morgan (JPM) and HSBC (HBC), which are the subject of a new lawsuit that charges them with price manipulation of the silver market. I believe these short sellers have been wrong all the way up and Monday's record volume may have been capitulation by the silver shorts. I believe the accumulation of gold and silver is a form of savings in sound money, but I am not adding to positions when the precious metals market is reaching these extremely overbought levels.

There are six banks that now control the London-based precious metals storage market. Interpretation: there is not enough silver to cover the trades being made which partly accounts for silver's record rise of 144% over the past 12 months and up 22% this past month alone. There is one additional consideration: global hedge funds own one half of one percent (.005) of their overall portfolios in precious metals. Should these funds increase their holdings to one percent (.01) this would result in a large increase in demand.

I feel a pullback may be in order as the recycling of scrap increases. I don't expect it to last very long. Above all do not even think of shorting silver. I reiterate: buy on dips as the price of silver is capable of doubling in the next twenty four months. I do not expect the silver to gold ratio to drop below 30:1 in the short term.

Is this a secular long term top in gold and silver? I do not believe so. We are witnessing a powerful up move in gold and especially silver, where a healthy correction would be normal. There is a flight to quality away from fiat currency namely U.S. dollars. If the dollar continues to lose value, your holdings of precious metals and mining stocks such asGDX will prove to be a prudent decision.

It must be noted that Evo Morales from Bolivia threw a shock into major silver miners especially Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Coeur D'Alene Mines (CDE) by saying he would use force majeure to take over the mining industry. This caused an immediate drop in the prices of these stocks. On Friday, he backed off by saying he did not mean it. Nevertheless, the markets don't trust socialists such as Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Morales of Bolivia.

Witness the sad story of Crystallex (KRY) which has spent ten years and was shovel ready to begin mining on Las Cristinas when Hugo decided to hand the permits over to his Russian friends at Rusoro Mining, a Canadian-based Russian Company. Such geopolitical uncertainty can only limit supply in an already tight market. Silver is such a small market that it doesn't take much to start a stampede. If you sell your silver you are stuck with paper money. I would rather look to high quality and overlooked natural resource stocks in geopolitically friendly jurisdictions with great relative strength to the sector.


Wisdom from Clear Thinkers on the Way Ahead

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:53 AM PDT

Catherine Austin Fitts understanding of the global financial system and the inner workings of the Wall Street-Washington axis are unparalleled. As the former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Housing/Federal Housing Commissioner, Catherine was one of the first to warn of an approaching housing bubble. Her prediction that a 'strong dollar policy' would ultimately lead to a [...]


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COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - April 29, 2011

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:31 AM PDT

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - April 29, 2011.


Does This Gold Story Need a Copper Lining?

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:10 AM PDT

syndicate: 1 Author: Vedran Vuk Synopsis: Barrick, the world's largest gold producer, is now adding copper mines to its assets. Alena Mikhan and Andrey Dashkov discuss whether that is a smart move. Also in this edition: U.S. lawmakers are fighting about whether to scrap oil company subsidies in the face of skyrocketing gas prices; and, musings on interest rates and gold. Dear Reader, Vedran Vuk here. David Galland is down at the Casey Summit in Boca Raton, Florida, so you're stuck with me again. Hopefully, some of you are in Florida also enjoying the conference. If not, consider purchasing a copy of the audio collection from the conference. Today is the last day to receive the $100 discount on the CD set; so don't wait up. Along with Doug Casey, David Galland and many more of the Casey Research editors, we hav...


The Front That Shall Not Be Named

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:10 AM PDT

The 5 min. Forecast April 29, 2011 12:41 PM by Addison Wiggin – April 29, 2011 [LIST] [*]Your government in action: Running guns to Mexican drug gangs, looking the other way as U.S. banks launder their money [*]Gallup poll results, Wal-Mart sales point to a strapped consumer… Barry Ritholtz on a generational change [*]Variation on the dollar index hits all-time low, Fed goes all Alfred E. Neuman on us… What you need to do now [*]Gold touches record high… Silver briefly eclipses 1980 record despite new margin requirements [*]"Bernankruptcy" and other reader takes on The Bernank's first news conference [/LIST] If nothing else, these WikiLeaks cables give you pause. Yesterday afternoon, we learned the government's been up to no good in the "front that shall not be named" across the U.S.' southern border with Mexico. After the president claimed on April 16, 2009, that "more than 90% of the guns recovered in Mexico come from the United States," ...


Gold Rules

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:02 AM PDT

As defined by the most valued currency throughout the history of humankind, an exclusively visual presentation of nearly ALL-THINGS vs. the value of Gold illuminates precisely where absolute wealth and truth reside. Read More...



GOLDRUNNER: Gold on Track to Reach $1860 ? $1920 by Mid-year

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 09:00 AM PDT

“Golden Parabola” Update The Golden Parabola is continuing to follow the cycle of the 70's Gold Bull as the U.S. Dollar is further devalued against Gold to balance the budget of the United States at this point in the "paper currency cycle" where Global Competitive Currency Devaluations rule. As discussed in a recent editorial this point in the cycle suggests that Gold will soon enter into a more aggressive higher rise in price to $1,860 – $1,920*per ozt.*as it starts to project the higher Vth Wave characteristics of this new Golden Parabola.**[Let me explain.] Words: 1403 So*says Goldrunner*(www.goldrunnerfractalanalysis.com)inan article* which*Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com,* has further edited ([* ]), abridged (…) and*reformatted*below**for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.*Goldrunner goes*on to say:* Much of the deb...


It's Getting Plain Silly: MF Global Hikes Silver Margin To 175% Of CME, Or Over 10% Of Contract

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 08:55 AM PDT


Now it's just getting plain silly. Following two margin hikes by the CME, one for 9% and one for 10% this week, now MF Global, run by former Goldman CEO Jon Corzine has joined the fray, and has hiked its silver margin to $25,397. As a reminder, the latest CME margin is $14,513, or about 6% of the contract value of $241,750 assuming a silver price of $48.35. So MF Global's is 175% of the CME! It is obvious that everyone is now hell bent on destroying the parabolic move higher in gold and silver, which is happening for a very good reason: deranged money printing. Although, as yesterday, we very much doubt MF Global, or anyone else for that matter will hike ES margins any time soon. After all, doing anything to stop the Weimar rallyTM in its tracks is treason of the highest degree under Bernanke's dictatorship and is punishable appropriately. In the meantime, can the exchange just make margin trading in commodities illegal and move to all cash? At least that way all the weak momo hands can be relegated to chasing Netflix and other bubbles, making their eventual pop all the more memorable.

h/t @gptrading


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 08:11 AM PDT


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Gold and Silver vs the U.S Dollar

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 08:09 AM PDT

One sure upshot of the quantitative easing money flooding the stock market will be further distortions, chaos and unpredictability that make the value-investing proposition difficult, if not impossible, according to Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey. On the eve of a sold-out Casey Research Summit in Boca Raton, Florida, Doug returns to The Gold Report. In this exclusive interview, he warns, "Like it or not, you're going to be forced to be a speculator."


Significant COMEX Commercial Short Covering for Silver

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 08:07 AM PDT

Lowest commercial net short position of 2011. 

 
Lowest relative commercial net short position since April 2009. 

HOUSTON -- As Silver blasted all the way up to $49.75 on Monday, April 25, then fell sharply last Tuesday to as low as $44.60 before settling at $45.45, the highest close for silver on a COT date in our records,  we can document a significant amount of commercial net short covering.   As of Tuesday, April 26, the largest of the largest commercial futures hedgers and short sellers, (the legacy "Commercial" category, the Producer/Merchant commercials and the Swap Dealers combined in a single category), reported holding a collective 42,534 contracts net short silver (LCNS).  That is down 10,158 contracts or 19.3% from the prior week's report.

20110430LCNSsilverWow 
 
(Silver LCNS. Source CFTC for COT, Cash Market for silver.) 

How very interesting to see the LCNS falling sharply as the price of silver was challenging and then pulling back from its former all time nominal highs near $50.  Tuesday's reading is the lowest commercial net short position for silver futures of 2011.  The relative commercial net short position (the LCNS compared to the total open interest of 143,341 contracts) fell to a low 29.7%, the lowest for that indicator since April of 2009 with silver then trading just above USD $12.  

Clearly the large commercial hedgers have been forced to the buy side by rising prices of late.  Either that or they took advantage of the Tuesday sell-down to get the heck "outta Dodge."  Certainly, as of Tuesday, the Big Sellers of silver futures were NOT willing to increase their net short bets with silver heading for a historic high.

If the Big Sellers are unwilling to fade the rally, we marvel at the "guts" of whoever is on the sell side of the silver juggernaut.     

We plan to update all of our linked technical charts for Vultures (Got Gold Report Subscribers) over the weekend, including our shorthand notes about the COT report, probably by the usual time target of 18:00 ET Sunday evening.   Vultures can access all the GGR charts by logging in and clicking on the respective links. 

 
That is all for today, but there is more to come.   


Golden Rally With a Silver Lining

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:40 AM PDT

There were plenty of silver linings this week. Silver moved close to the 1980 and the key barrier of $50 and gold is moving to new highs at the moment of writing these words. Before jumping right into gold and silver charts ... Read More...



Gold on Track to Reach $1860 - $1920 by Mid 2011

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:39 AM PDT

The Golden Parabola is continuing to follow the cycle of the 70’s Gold Bull as the U.S. Dollar is further devalued against Gold to balance the budget of the United States at this point in the “paper currency cycle” where Global Competitive Currency Devaluations rule. As discussed in a recent editorial this point in the cycle suggests that Gold will soon enter into a more aggressive higher rise in price as it starts to project the higher Vth Wave characteristics of this new Golden Parabola.  


Gold explodes to the upside, reaches new peak just below $1570/oz

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:33 AM PDT

Fri, Apr 29 2011 (FXstreet.com) — The yellow metal skyrocketed on Friday, rising more than $30 within the last hours, and establishing a fresh absolute high at $1569.35 an ounce.

[source]


Gold at record highs… Dollar at 3-year lows… Don't panic

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:32 AM PDT

by Hibah Yousuf
April 29, 2011 (CNNMoney) — Gold and silver prices are surging and the U.S. dollar is slumping. While that's not great for consumers, investors are loving the dynamic.

"The Fed has made it crystal clear that it is not going to do anything to stop the dollar from falling," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading, adding that central bank's unwavering message gives investors the green light to keep adding high-yielding assets to their portfolio.

By borrowing and then selling the greenback, investors are able to take advantage of the cheap currency by using the proceeds to buy up higher yielding assets, such as the euro, gold, silver and even oil. The so-called carry trade has pushed the dollar index … to three-year lows.

… Earlier this month, the European Central Bank raised its benchmark interest rate. And China's central bank has already hiked rates four times since the end of the financial crisis to combat inflation and prevent asset bubbles.

But the Fed isn't pulling the plug yet. On Wednesday, the central bank reiterated plans to keep interest rates low, invest the interest earned on its current asset holdings and complete its $600 billion bond buying program in June, as expected.

All of that, of course, deteriorates the value of the dollar.

[source]


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