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Monday, April 11, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Silver: 'Toppy' or Just Warming Up?

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 07:43 PM PDT

Mike Scully submits:

"Silver feels a little toppy to me at these levels." That seems to be the refrain of technical analysts and stock traders who are bearish on silver. Or some might say, "silver has had a huge run up and now it looks like it's ready for a pullback." Or, "I liked silver at $15 or $24 (sure they did), but now it's expensive."

Some silver bears point to the fact that silver is at a 31 year high as "evidence" that it's getting pricey. Are we overbought at these levels? Could be. Are we in for a repeat of the boom and bust of 1980? The chart from back then looks awfully scary. Let's take a look at a few stats from then and now to see if that's a fair comparison.

Money Supply: In 1980 the monetary base was $200 billion. Today, it's around $2400 billion, or twelve times


Complete Story »


International Forecaster April 2011 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 06:08 PM PDT

We see signs that American workers are getting worn out. Management may have squeezed the last drops of extra work that they can out of them. That has been reflected in the latest worker productivity. Since WWII the average increase has been 2-1/2% year after year, but last week's numbers were terrible, up only 0.2% per year. Europe and the US have been able in part to offset advantages of foreign producers by consistently getting better productivity results. For those of you that are new to these statistics, they are a reflection of labor productivity, or advances in the way work is done.


Stopping Inflation, the Federal Reserve Way

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 06:02 PM PDT

I was explaining to my boss that firing me would not solve the company's problems, as the corporate rot goes a lot farther than that, mostly due to the stupid Human Resources department hiring so many morons, a dismal fact I have proved over the years by merely asking each one, in turn, "Do you own any gold and silver to protect yourself from the horrendous inflation in prices that is guaranteed by the evil Federal Reserve creating so impossibly much money, and which will destroy the currency, the economy, and everyone who is not an owner of the aforesaid precious metals, to wit, gold and silver, or are you some kind of moron?"


Investing In Gold And Silver

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 06:01 PM PDT

This past week we saw gold and silver break higher to the upside. It's a nice move so far with gold having risen by 3.23% and silver by a much better 8.28% with $1.31 or 3.31% of that coming on Friday.


The Loose Cannon Credit Crisis

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 04:15 PM PDT

Starting in the 1970s, international credit flows began to destabilize the global economy. One country after another was plunged into crisis as dollar-denominated credit from abroad produced short-term booms followed by longer-lasting busts. Each crisis threatened the solvency of the international financial system; and in each crisis the large international banks that had made the loans were bailed out from their mistakes by rescue programs directed from Washington.

The United States not only tolerated those credit flows, it encouraged them by promoting capital-account liberalization in those countries where it could exert influence. By bailing out the banks each time, Washington rewarded imprudent risk-taking and thereby encouraged the next round of foolish lending. The sums at stake grew from one decade to the next, so that each successive crisis required a larger bailout than the one before.

The Latin American debt crisis, the Mexican peso crisis, the Asian crisis, and the contagion that subsequently spread to Russia and Brazil, are generally viewed as separate, compartmentalized episodes. In reality, they are all part of one long crisis caused by unregulated cross-border credit flows. In the mid-1970s, enormous amounts of dollar-denominated credit began sloshing around the world.

Like a loose cannon on a ship, the credit would reel from one side of the world when economic conditions tipped one way—wrecking havoc all along its path—and then rocket back across the deck of the world economy in another direction, causing more chaos, when macroeconomic conditions began to tilt in a different direction. International credit broke loose in the 1960s owing to the failure of US policymakers to control the Eurodollar market and the US banks that dominated it. By the late 1970s, it had produced its first destabilizing economic boom, in Latin America.

The crisis that began in Latin America in the 1980s, re-erupted in Mexico in 1994, engulfed Asia in 1997, and spread to Russia the next year hit New York in September 1998. In its earlier phases, this loose-cannon credit crisis had posed serious medium-term threats (of fluctuating severity) to the solvency of the world's largest banks. But when genius failed at Long Term Capital Management, the global financial system was confronted with the prospect of immediate and complete collapse.

When US policymakers were forced to cut interest rates to avert the meltdown, they lost control over the US economy. Consequently, over the following decade, the United States itself was to become overwhelmed by foreign capital inflows just as its smaller Latin American neighbors had been in the 1970s. Foreign capital blew the US economy into a bubble and in 2008 that bubble burst.

Unregulated cross-border credit flows, encouraged by moral-hazard-inducing IMF bailouts, were a key element behind the global economic disequilibrium that eventually produced the New Depression. Until international capital flows are brought under control, they are certain to continue destabilizing the global economy.

Regards,

Richard Duncan
for The Daily Reckoning

P.S. For the details, please see The Corruption of Capitalism, Chapter 6: "The International Debt Crisis, Phases One Through Three."

The Loose Cannon Credit Crisis originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning recently featured articles on stagflation, best libertarian books, and QE2 .


Inflationary Hysteria

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 03:44 PM PDT

One word well technically two) can describe what is going on in the electronic pre-market arena right now: inflationary hysteria. Gold is at a new record, wheat is surging, corn is at highest since 2008, crude at a new 30 month high, silver is at $41.10 - a new fresh post Hunt high, beans surging, etc, etc, etc. Essentially everything is bid, following news first reported on Zero Hedge that PIMCO is betting the farm that either inflation is about to go parabolic and force bondholders to dump everything, or that the Fed will have no choice but to pursue another round of QE, sending gold to $2,000 and unleashing the Weimar endgame.
Gold:
More Here..


That’s because the purpose of this weekend’s conference is to reorder world finance in the wake of the near-collapse of the global financial system in 2008

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 02:02 PM PDT

Soros and friends reorder global finance at new Bretton Woods Share this:


Precious Metals Market Report

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 01:38 PM PDT

By Catherine Austin Fitts I am headed over to middle Tennessee to join Franklin Sanders for our Precious Metals Market Report this Thursday evening. The silver and gold markets continue to be strong  - with silver and gold reaching new nominal highs this last week. Franklin and I want to discuss what is supporting the continued rise. [...]


Tips on buying a monster box of Silver Eagles

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 01:31 PM PDT

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ECB Rate Hikes could Kill Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and even Spain!

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 12:14 PM PDT


On Sunday, new analysis of the recent actions by the ECB was published in the Observer (Guardian). The British media outlet hired consultancy firm Fathom to evaluate the bailouts of different European member states and the possible outcome.

The study concluded that the bailouts are not the biggest threat for Europe. The renewed hawkish stance by the ECB, which led to the recent interest rate hike, is far more dangerous!

Via the Observer:

Analysis by City consultancy Fathom, obtained exclusively by the Observer, shows that because the interest rates on the bailouts provided to Greece and Ireland track the European Central Bank’s lending rate, a series of increases could push these countries – and Portugal – into default.

 

“If the ECB continues to tighten policy, the impact is clear: default is more or less inevitable,” says Fathom director Danny Gabay. “Greece is clearly on an unsustainable path.”

 

Fathom also warns that Spain remains vulnerable, despite Madrid insisting last week that its economy is much healthier than Portugal’s and its debts are much more manageable. Spanish banks must roll over debts worth more than 5% of GDP this year, and more than 9% in 2012, in addition to the government’s financing needs. A two-point increase in the interest Madrid pays in the bond markets – much of which could come from the ECB, even without a further loss of confidence from bond investors – would, on Fathom’s calculations, force Spain into a fiscal crisis.

 

A string of defaults could shatter the markets’ confidence, Gabay argues, resulting in a devaluation of up to 30%, with significant knock-on effects: “What could make the markets lose confidence is watching these countries implode.”

While the experts are discussing the future of the EU, the euro is on a tear versus the dollar, choking European exporters. This could lead to even more damage to tax income, i.e. state budgets.

There’s no question about it: the tensions are building rapidly in Europe. At the current pace, Code Red could be installed fairly quickly for the European financial system.

>>> www.smartmoney.eu

Follow us on Twitter: @SmartMoneyEU


Premarket Summary: Inflationary Hysteria

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 11:36 AM PDT


One word (well technically two) can describe what is going on in the electronic pre-market arena right now: inflationary hysteria. Gold is at a new record, wheat is surging, corn is at highest since 2008, crude at a new 30 month high, silver is at $41.10 - a new fresh post Hunt high, beans surging, etc, etc, etc. Essentially everything is bid, following news first reported on Zero Hedge that PIMCO is betting the farm that either inflation is about to go parabolic and force bondholders to dump everything, or that the Fed will have no choice but to pursue another round of QE, sending gold to $2,000 and unleashing the Weimar endgame.

Gold:

Silver:

WTI:

Corn:

etc.

 


Silver

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 11:09 AM PDT

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Balancing Act - Stock World Weekly

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 10:54 AM PDT


This week's Stock World Weekly is called "Balancing Act."  

Click here for the full pfd file, Balancing Act.

Cost of Living Stampede

Excerpt:

Inflation and stagflation have been important topics of debate, particularly since the Fed announced the QE2 program last fall, and even more so as prices of commodities have been rising unabated. While Fed apologists make academic arguments that QE shouldn’t cause inflation, many financial commentators disagree. Jason Kaspar, of GoldShark.com, discussed the subject with SWW editor Ilene in email correspondence. Jason wrote, “The real definition of inflation is an increase in the money supply, and according to me, that includes credit as well. The real definition of deflation, conversely, is a decrease in the money supply.

“Logic presupposes that when the money supply increases, the prices of goods will increase. This is generally true. However, the reverse is not always true. An increase in the price of goods does not necessarily mean there has been an increase in the money supply.

“For example, during the collapse of 2008, a tremendous amount of money was vaporized through de-leveraging (among other things). We saw much of this occur in the mortgage market with innumerable foreclosures. When the Treasury instituted its stimulus spending and the Fed helped facilitate this spending through quantitative easing in 2009, the stimulus served only to replace the money that was lost. The Fed bought mortgage backed securities (in QE1) and treasuries from the banks, but instead of lending that money out to individuals, the banks allowed it to build in reserves at the Fed (which renders it useless) or have been investing that money in assets, like food, equities, gold, etc.

“Therefore, even though there is no overall increase in the money supply (M3 has started contracting again recently), some of the QE money has been shifted into specific assets, which are enjoying nominally large price increases. This is the difference between money supply inflation, and price inflation.”

Russ Winter, at Wall Street Examiner, and author of Winter Watch writes, “The following chart says it all (below). The Fed’s aggressive Treasury monetization has been the causa proxima (90-percent correlation) to the pedal-to- the-metal Minsky Meltup in commodities. I suspected this would be the effect but confess I did not believe the Fed and government could be so irrational and stupid as to attempt it, especially with the blowback evident by year end. Though I am one of the most persistent critics of Fed rabble, this exceeded even my worst fears and nightmares. This is what Bernanke refers to as ‘temporary’ inflation. Nor did I anticipate the markets ignoring such clear and present danger either. The transmission of this inflation disease appears to take about six months, which corresponds to the MIT price survey I have been using. It, too, now shows that inflation is in full swing.”

“If the Fed continues its purchases, we can calculate that each new $100 billion of Treasury purchased will add about 5 percent to the commodity index and $7 to oil. It takes four weeks for the Fed to purchase $100 billion in Treasuries. What a game of chicken being played out and right before our eyes! You can sense the collision, flying glass, blood and bones at almost any moment. If the Fed desists or scales down its Treasury buying, the stark trillion dollar question becomes who will buy them?” (The Game Of Chicken: Collision, Blood and Bones)

Lee Adler, editor and publisher of Wall Street Examiner presents another perspective: “The evidence shows that banks are again out of the Treasury buying game. It also shows that they lost money in the first quarter, which is insane considering that their cost of funds is zero. It’s an indication of just how dire the circumstances are. Banks continue to accumulate cash at a frantic rate in their accounts at the Fed. The last time reserves rose this fast was in the midst of the crisis in 2008.

“Although the banks did buy some Treasuries in mid March, they have again stopped buying and reduced their holdings, opting to hold cash at the Fed instead. The banks are pulling cash out of the system and depositing it in their reserve accounts even faster than the Fed is printing it, lately 60% faster. We have to wonder what has them so spooked.

“At the same time, FCBs [foreign central banks] purchases of Treasuries are also backsliding, and are well below the threshold where they need to be to keep the markets stable. These elements essentially neutralize the Fed’s pumping. It may not be enough to send the

markets lower, and in the absence of new Treasury supply, Fed buying should be enough to keep the field tilted in favor of higher prices. April’s bias should be to the upside, but the background drag will be there. Things will get tougher in May when Treasury supply increases, and really tough this summer when the Fed presumably will stop pumping.” (Fed Gets To Skate On Thin Ice In April)

The S&P 500 is near the level where we might be more bullish on a technical basis. However, the low volumes that have characterized this rally, and the artificiality of it, leave us skeptical and cautious going into next week.

 

Stock World Weekly archives here >


Got Gold Report - Global Storm Clouds Put Bid Under Gold, Silver

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 10:24 AM PDT

China and the ECB raising interest rates while the U.S. cannot or won't yet; oil prices surging to scary 2008 levels; lots more cars in China and Russia mean heavier demands on tightening oil supplies – while the Big Oil producing states are tinderboxes; meanwhile the brain-dead clinging-to-utopia U.S. 'leadership' still won't allow drilling in Alaska, off the east and west coasts or the Florida Gulf – we guess because they like silly, bird-killing wind mills and helping third world countries that hate us; Americans need oil and instead they get Washington boondoggles, misallocated capital, super high priced alcohol and feel-good double-speak, double-think high-tax and spend green dreams; … base metals also rising, hard; food and cereals like corn, wheat, beans and oats all going stratospheric measured in sickly U.S. dollars; global fears of more geopolitical Black Swans flying overhead with oil-producing Nigeria in focus as elections there delayed; governments tightening the tax screws on miners or threatening to, Norway, the U.K., Peru, South Africa, even in 'formerly' mine-friendly Nevada; the U.S. Fed ballooning the money supply – the most visible form of currency devaluation (and what do they fear so much?); austerity in Europe and the U.S. looms heavy with high and rising gasoline prices - a one-two sucker punch to the gut of Joe Sixpack, who voted for "change" and, as Mencken said, "got it good and hard." Higher and rising prices for goods, food and energy are only partly due to normal supply and demand fundamentals. Unfortunately for humans everywhere, a majority of the price changes in recent months are directly due to monetary inflation which has already occurred. Higher commodity prices are the consequences of cheap money and liquidity force feeding into markets that don't need it. Meddling in the free markets is not a job for amateurs or democratic governments, but they keep on trying.


Gaddafi To "Give Ceasefire A Chance" - Accepts Undetermined "Roadmap To Peace"; Oil Dips To Be Savagely Bought

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 10:08 AM PDT


It almost seems like it was yesterday that Hugo Chavez was threatening to steal Obama's peace prize from under the president nose, when one dictator seemed on the verge of ending another dictator's multi-decade rule. But not really. And since nobody remembers that fable any more, it is time to come up with a new rehash on a common theme. Per Reuters, "Muammar Gaddafi has accepted a roadmap for ending the conflict in Libya, South African President Jacob Zuma said on Sunday after leading a delegation of African leaders at talks in Tripoli." Good thing Zuma has so much more credibility in the international community than Chavez. Or else people may see through yet another attempt at push oil prices lower for a day or two while the big boys load up, only for the rumor to dissipate in a day or so. "Zuma, who with four other African heads of state met Gaddafi for several hours at the Libyan leader's Bab al-Aziziyah compound, also called on NATO to stop air strikes on Libyan government targets to "give a ceasefire a chance."" We are not positive, but something tells us the Beatles are about to get a asston of royalties on that particular phrase. And just in case there is no confusion about just what this "roadmap" entails, there damn well should be. "No one at the talks gave details of what was contained in the roadmap. Anti-Gaddafi rebels have said they will accept nothing less than an end to Gaddafi's four decades in power, but Libyan officials say he will not step down." So no actual details, but please sell Brent or else Goldman won't be able to load up. Is that about the gist of it?

More from Reuters:

 "I have some commitment which is compelling me to leave now but we have completed our mission with the brother leader (Gaddafi)," Zuma said after the talks.

Apparently Zuma, after extensive deliberations with the guy with the headdress, has realized how important it is to move his gold stash from point A to point B post haste.

"The brother leader delegation has accepted the roadmap as presented by us. We have to give ceasefire a chance," he said.

"The delegation ... will be proceeding tomorrow to meet the other party, to talk to everybody and present a political solution to the problem in Libya."

"We also in this communique (adopted at the talks on Sunday) are making a call on NATO to cease the bombings to allow and to give a ceasefire a chance."

"My colleagues remain in Tripoli and tomorrow will go to Benghazi," to meet the rebel leadership, Zuma said.

In other news, expect everyone to BTFD in brent and crude.


Un-reserve Dollar? US thinkers up for world order reshape

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 08:58 AM PDT

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Collapsing Dollar? Not So Fast

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 08:15 AM PDT

Dear President Obama promised doubling of USA exports, FED refused to let up on QE2 and there are plenty of People inside and outside of government circles who see the Dollar depreciation as a blessing. Read More...



Видео блог на Явор Алексиев [09.04.2011] – “Crash J.P. Morgan, Buy Silver!”

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 08:01 AM PDT

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Silver Liberation Army Initiation Night

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 07:55 AM PDT

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Investing Wisely -- Update with Recommendations and Personalized Follow-Up

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 07:49 AM PDT

My current forecast says that there will still be some topping for many securities. In particularly we may well see new highs for: Gold, Silver and Crude Oil. It also means that we will enter a new negative breadth cycle, and that will take ... Read More...



Debunking Faulty Precious Metals Analysis

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 07:49 AM PDT

Danny Furman submits:

It's hard to say exactly what is required for a gold bug to become a gold bug. For me it was the simple understanding that the United States no longer produces anything but debt. Why would anyone prefer to own a currency that ultimately represents a service economy led by cowboy central bankers when they can own one that is also a hard asset with great historical value?

With gold and silver appreciating rapidly of late, many argue precious metals have gone too far. Two such arguments particularly don't carry much weight so I'd like take a moment to dispel them.

Seeking Alpha contributor John Tobey performs a historical analysis of the purchasing power of gold in the United States. He uses a constant basket of goods that make up the consumer price index and plots their price in gold in the U.S.A. since the Declaration of Independence. Since today


Complete Story »


Gold Thoughts

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 07:06 AM PDT

What a wonderful and glorious time to talk with you. With a reduction in U.S. government spending to avoid a shutdown of the government, greatest political change in 60 years of U.S. history has taken another step. Read More...



Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 06:41 AM PDT


A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill - it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world's largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO's holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross' thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a "gold" asset holdings line item.

And another side effect of the firm's scramble away from debt and into cash is that the effective duration of TRF is now down to 3.6: only the second lowest since the 3.38 posted in December of 2008... when the world was on the verge of ending.

That Bill Gross is willing to risk a surge in redemptions (after all who would be wiling to pay PIMCO to manage a third of their assets in the form of supposedly devaluating cash) in order to make a statement about the credibility of the US government, and specifically the viability of its IOUs, is easily the only thing that the US government has to consider when evaluating the prospects for funding trillions and trillions of US deficits at "acceptable" rates in the absence of further quantitative easing by the Chairman.

If Gross is indeed right, something very wicked this way comes.

 


China Trade-Deficit = Zero Treasuries-Buyers

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 05:46 AM PDT

It really is time for Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve to abandon the absurd myth that someone other than Ben Bernanke is still buying U.S. Treasuries.

In a recent commentary, I pointed out the obvious implications to the U.S. Treasuries market (as well as for the other sovereign deadbeat-debtors) of the catastrophe in Japan, and the enormous amount of domestic wealth which would need to be repatriated to fund reconstruction. Not only does this take Japan completely out of the market as a buyer of U.S. Treasuries, but they will undoubtedly be forced to liquidate much of their holdings in U.S. debt (assuming they can find anyone foolish enough to buy it).

Now we have China disappearing from the list of "potential buyers" of those bonds as well. Despite the fact that China's economy had ceased to be export-dependent at least as far back as 2008, we continued to see media talking-heads parroting the myth that not only was China's economy "dependent" on U.S. consumption, but that China was "forced" to plow most of its "vast trade surpluses" into Treasuries – as the only means of preventing the appreciation of the renminbi.

Over the weekend, China's government announced its first quarterly trade deficit in seven years. With that single announcement, both of those preceding myths have now been permanently dispelled. Despite its trade-deficit, China's economic growth leaves all other nations in its dust. So much for being "export-dependent".

Similarly, how many Treasuries is China "forced" to buy with a zero trade-surplus? Obviously zero. Thanks to the runaway-inflation caused by the reckless money-printing of Ben Bernanke and the Federal Reserve, there are no longer any nations in the world with both large trade- and budget-surpluses, meaning there are no more potential "big buyers" for U.S. Treasuries. Thus while the supply of U.S. Treasuries continues to be ramped-up to new records on a quarterly basis, there is no demand. Period.

This makes the Federal Reserve's 2011 "April Fool's" joke that it was about to stop buying Treasuries even less-funny than its 2010 "April Fool's" joke that it had stopped buying Treasuries. Try to be original at least!

All that happened in 2010 after the Federal Reserve pretended to stop buying Treasuries in 2010 is that it had to illegally counterfeit the money to continue monetizing U.S. debt (which explains why it is fighting with all its might to avoid any meaningful "audit"). Thus, if we get a similar announcement in the weeks ahead, all that it will signify is that the Federal Reserve has again gone from its legal-counterfeiting operations back to its illegitimate money-printing.


We Have Until July at Latest

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 05:14 AM PDT

Are Most Nuclear Power Plants Vulnerable?

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 05:11 AM PDT


Whenever there is a disaster, those responsible claim it was "unforeseeable" so as to escape blame.

For example:

  • It happened with 9/11

The big boys gamble with our lives and our livelihoods, because they make a killing by taking huge risks and cutting costs. And when things inevitably go South, they aren't held responsible (other than a slap on the wrist), and may even be bailed out by the government.

Are All Nuclear Power Plants Vulnerable?

Much of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex has experienced difficulties because the earthquake knocked out the main power, and then the tsunami destroyed the backup diesel generators.

Of course, many other reactors are built in seismically active areas. But that's not my point.

Nasa scientists are predicting that a solar storm will knock out most of the electrical power grid in many countries worldwide, perhaps for months. See this, this, this, this, this, this and this.

Indeed, the Earth's magnetic field protects us from the sun's most violent radiation, and yet the magnetic field fluctuates over time. As the Telegraph reported in 2008:

Large hole in magnetic field that protects Earth from sun's rays ... Recent satellite observations have revealed the largest breach yet seen in the magnetic field that protects Earth from most of the sun's violent blasts.

I'm not predicting some 2012 Mayan catastrophe. I am simply warning that a large solar storm - as Nasa is predicting - could knock out power throughout much of the world, especially if the earth's magnetic field happens to be weak at the time.

What would happen to nuclear power plants world wide if their power - and most of the surrounding modern infrastructure - is knocked out?

Nuclear power companies are notoriously cheap in trying to cut costs. If they are failing to harden their electrical components to protect against the predicted solar storm, they are asking for trouble ... perhaps on a scale that dwarfs Fukushima. Because while Fukushima is the first nuclear accident to involve multiple reactors within the same complex, a large solar storm could cause accidents at multiple complexes in numerous countries.

If the nuclear power companies and governments continue to cut costs and take large gambles, the next nuclear accident could make Fukushima look tame.

I'm not saying this will happen in 2012, or 2013 (although Nasa appears to be hinting at this). But a large solar storm which knocks out electrical grids over wide portions of the planet will happen at some point in the future.

Don't pretend it is unforeseeable. The nuclear power industry is on notice that it must spend the relatively small amounts of money necessary to prevent a widespread meltdown from the loss of power due to a solar storm.

Note: Future generations of nuclear reactors will presumably run at lower temperatures and will store spent rods in a safer manner.

But most current reactors are of a similarly outdated design as the Fukushima reactors, where the cooling systems require electricity to operate, and huge amounts of spent radioactive fuel are housed on-site, requiring continuous cooling to prevent radioactive release.

Giant hat tip: Reptil.


Chris Weber: Where is America's Gold? The mystery of Fort Knox

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 04:11 AM PDT

12:07p ET Sunday, April 10, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Chris Weber, author of a new book inquiring into the status of U.S. gold reserves supposedly kept at Fort Knox in Kentucky, remarks in an essay published this week: "There has been the atmosphere of a sham -- even a fraud -- about the U.S. policy toward gold for generations." Weber's essay is headlined "Where Is America's Gold? The Mystery of Fort Knox" and you can find it at Lew Rockwell's Internet site here:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/weber-c2.1.1.html

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



Join GATA here:

An Evening with Bill Murphy and James Turk
Sponsored by Deutsche Edelmetall-Gesellschaft
Friday, April 29, 2011
Hofbrauhaus, Munich, Germany

http://www.goldmoney.com/munich-2011-april-29.html

Gold Rush 2011
GATA's London Conference
Thursday-Saturday, August 4-6, 2011
Savoy Hotel, London, England

http://www.gata.org/goldrush2011-london

Support GATA by purchasing gold and silver commemorative coins:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

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Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

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The Gold Standard Now: It Can Work

Today a dollar is worth 80 percent less than it was 40 years ago, and less than 5 percent of its value a hundred years ago. We deserve a dollar that is as good as gold, a dollar that will hold its value from year to year so we can be financially secure and our economy can generate more and better jobs.

For most of America's history, our dollar was literally as good as gold. But on August 15, 1971, our politicians destroyed the link between gold and the dollar. They destroyed the foundations of our economic system.

A new Internet site, TheGoldStandardNow.org, provides news and cutting-edge analysis about this most important issue and explains how the gold standard worked in the past and how it can work in the future. Visit us today:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/about/137-welcome-newsmax



Dean Baker - "let's Just Default"

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 03:52 AM PDT


An interesting article by Dean Baker today. "Defaulting on debt is not the end of the world". Dean has gone over the top and is now advocating a debt default by the USA as a way of “fixing” our problems. Dean thinks that the existing obligations of Social Security and Medicare are much more important to maintain that our credit rating. His words:

Compared to these outcomes, (cuts in SS and Medicare) a financial crisis and the subsequent slump that follows may seem like a relatively small cost.


Baker thinks this would be an easy matter. He points to Argentina as an example. This just proves that Dean has no clue what he is talking about. Yes Argentina defaulted and recovered after a few years. But Argentina is not a reserve currency that has a linchpin role in the global financial system. Argentina is a fraction of global GDP (Argentina = 0.5%; US = 25.0%). Their default was painful to all. Both citizens and creditors suffered. Savers lost everything. Pensioners got worthless script versus the payments they were promised. Dean thinks following Argentina is the right thing to do:

The experience of Argentina may be instructive in this respect. Argentina defaulted on its debt at the end of 2001. By the end of 2003 it had recovered its lost output.


it is also likely the case that the United States would rebound and possible rebound quickly from a default.


I don’t know how to handicap the possibility for a debt default by the USA. In 2007 I would have said it was a near zero possibility. Today it's no longer zero and the odds rise by the month. The scary thing for me is that no one is doing a damn thing about it. The budget silliness of last week is a case in point. The idiots in D.C. damn near shut the government down over a few billion bucks. Lunacy. And now ‘important’ voices like Baker are suggesting default is a viable option.


It’s hard to imagine what a debt default for the world’s biggest creditor would be like. Some of the things that I think could happen:

-Mr. Baker must come to grip with the facts of default. As he and many other defenders of Social Security have said repeatedly; the assets of the Social Security Trust Fund are equal in legal status to the debt issued to the public by Treasury. This means that it isn’t possible for the US to default on its public debt without also defaulting on the Special Issue bonds in the SS Trust Fund. As SS is running a cash deficit on a monthly basis it would only take 30 days for all checks to stop. Period, full stop. Social Security would cease to exist.

-The Medicare Trust Fund, Military Pension Trust Fund, Federal Workers Trust Fund would also default. They too would stop issuing checks. Medicare would no longer function. Some level of medical care would be maintained. But older people who needed lifesaving treatment wouldn’t get it. Hundreds of thousands would die. The number could easily go into the millions.

-Surely we would see a collapse of the dollar. The cost of everything we import would triple++ in a very short period of time. The price of gas would be $10? 50? 100?

-Equity markets in the US would collapse. A loss of 50% would be a good outcome. It could be much worse than that. We know that the wealth affect drives the economy, so this result would insure a collapse of US GDP. How long would the depression/recession last if this were to happen? At least a decade. It would be worse than what happened in the US during the 30’s.

-Unemployment? A minimum of 25% would be the result.

Interest rates? Who knows? There would be no debt market left in the event of a default by the US. There would be no credit available.

-If Treasury were to default, every mortgage borrower would follow suit. If the banks were not wiped out by the federal ‘no pay’ they certainly would be wiped out by the mortgage defaults. Almost all banks would shut. This would cascade back to the FDIC. The withdrawals from account holders would force the FDIC to honor its obligations. As they have no reserves this would force Treasury to issue coinage ($100 bills) to satisfy the run on the bank. This is the hyper inflationary environment. The price of basics (food) would explode. Shelves would empty. People would go hungry. In the years that followed a default many would starve, many of those would die.

-All municipalities would be forced to default. All muni savers would be wiped out. The business of local government would shut down. They would be unable to make payroll, so no one would work. Garbage collection would stop. There would be no police. Crime would be rampant. Armed robbery, rape and murder would be common. Vigilantism would rise. Open conflict on a regional basis would be the result. There would be no fire departments. Cities would burn.

-All infrastructure repairs and investments would stop. In a very short period of time roads, bridges, ports, airports would become dysfunctional. It would not really matter that much. There will be no gas or diesel to power vehicles, so the broken roads would be empty.

-Most public education would end.

-There would be no real estate market. There would be no Fannie, Freddie or FHA. There would be no lenders to finance a home. There would be no liquidity. Prices would collapse. A house would sell for a few months of food.

-It’s difficult to image the consequences outside of our borders. Neighboring countries like Mexico and Canada would implode. The decline of the US economy would ripple around the world. Other countries would be forced to repudiate their debt. It’s possible that a default in the US would force all big debtor countries to follow suit. At that point all seven billion people would suffer.

-Functionally there would be no US military. Regional warriors and pirates would rule. Major nations could start wars over natural resources.



I suspect that a number of readers will agree with Dean. Pull the plug on the whole system. Let the chips fall, let the shit fly. That may happen. We are most certainly headed in that direction. The probability of this happening just increased a notch or two. Dean Baker has a big audience and a fair bit of support. Big shots like Paul Krugman quote him all the time. Now that Dean has put his reputation (and CEPR) on the line by calling for a debt repudiation he will be forced to push his agenda. Like I said, this is a “popular” option.


Dean Baker is the champion of Social Security and Medicare. His many supporters should understand that he is advocating policies that insure that their savings, benefits and medical protection would be wiped out. He would destroy exactly the group that he thinks he is trying to protect. They should at least seem him for what he is. A fool that will ruin them.



Is Compounding Debt Mankind’s Kryptonite?

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 03:28 AM PDT

SilverDoctors writes: Throughout history, mankind has struggled to end the boom/bust economic cycle, and usher in a new age of economic prosperity.  The middle ages saw monarchy/ feudal/ serf systems.  Marx and Lenin believed economic prosperity could be achieved through socialism or communism- complete sharing of economic wealth and resources.  The modern Western world-influenced by the likes of Adam Smith, Keynes, and Friedman, has tried to achieve this through capitalism- the private ownership of goods with the incentive for personal profit.   The Chinese have developed a modern hybrid of capitalism and communism.  Hard money advocates believe fiat currency is the issue, and a return to sound money such as gold and silver will finally usher in the era of economic prosperity. 


Gold advocate Tice produces inspirational movie about shark-injured teen surfer

Posted: 10 Apr 2011 03:26 AM PDT

Investor Plows Short-Sale Riches Into Film on One-Armed Surfer

By Ronald Grover
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, April 6, 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-06/tice-plows-short-sale-riches-in...

David Tice, the former Federated Investors fund manager who correctly predicted the bear market in October 2007, is wagering that a film about a one-armed teen surfer will be a big hit.

The Dallas-based investor is executive producer and said he provided two-thirds of the $15 million budget for "Soul Surfer," a film based on Hawaiian surfing champion Bethany Hamilton, who returned to competition three months after losing her left arm in a shark attack in 2003.

"I'm not much of a venture capitalist," said Tice, 56, who sold his two Prudent Bear short-selling funds to Federated Investors Inc. in 2008 for as much as $143 million. "I've always thought that anything that is cool enough to talk about at a cocktail party is a bad investment."

... Dispatch continues below ...



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The Gold Standard Now: It Can Work

Today a dollar is worth 80 percent less than it was 40 years ago, and less than 5 percent of its value a hundred years ago. We deserve a dollar that is as good as gold, a dollar that will hold its value from year to year so we can be financially secure and our economy can generate more and better jobs.

For most of America's history, our dollar was literally as good as gold. But on August 15, 1971, our politicians destroyed the link between gold and the dollar. They destroyed the foundations of our economic system.

A new Internet site, TheGoldStandardNow.org, provides news and cutting-edge analysis about this most important issue and explains how the gold standard worked in the past and how it can work in the future. Visit us today:

http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/about/137-welcome-newsmax



Tice's outlay "is a lot of money for anyone to invest, especially a fund manager who is used to handling other people's money," said Bill Mechanic, former chairman and chief executive officer of Fox Filmed Entertainment and now head of Pandemonium Films. "The question is whether anyone is going to want to see a pretty girl who gets her arm chewed off by a shark."

The film is scheduled for release on April 8 by Sony Corp.'s TriStar Pictures. AnnaSophia Robb, 17, who starred in Walt Disney Co.'s "Race to Witch Mountain," plays Hamilton and is joined by Helen Hunt and Dennis Quaid as the girl's parents.

Carrie Underwood, the Grammy-winning country music singer, makes her big-screen debut in the film, playing Sarah Hill, Hamilton's influential youth group leader.

Tice said in an interview he invested in "Soul Surfer" because its story of a young girl who overcomes physical and emotional odds "was so inspirational, so uplifting that I decided it could help others."

"I love for my daughters to watch feel-good movies, like 'Rudy,' 'Rocky,' 'October Sky,'" Tice said. He compares "Soul Surfer" to the Sandra Bullock football film "The Blind Side."

The film opens in theaters ahead of the studios' summer tent-pole pictures and will be up against three new releases including the comedies "Arthur" from Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. and "Your Highness" from Comcast Corp.'s Universal Pictures.

U.S. box-office attendance is down 21 percent this year, according to industry tracker Hollywood.com.

Tice said he decided to invest in movies while at the Sundance Film Festival during a ski trip for his girlfriend's birthday. At a cocktail party, he met a friend of Doug Schwartz, producer of the "Baywatch" TV series. Schwartz was seeking investors for an Imax film based on the Body Worlds exhibit.

"It seemed like a special opportunity," said Tice, now a consultant to Pittsburgh-based Federated. "An investor isn't smart enough to put money into a film like 'Sleepless in Seattle,' where you have to judge the script and the actors."

Schwartz had approached Hamilton six months after the shark attack, after she had resumed competitive surfing. When the Body Worlds project failed to materialize, he recruited Tice to invest in "Soul Surfer."

Tice said he "had a lower budget in mind." When Sony signed on to release the film, the studio pushed for bigger name stars, said Steve Bersch, president of Sony Pictures World Acquisitions. Their salaries increased the budget, and the shooting time lengthened to fit their schedules, Tice said.

To improve the surfing scenes, the production moved for a short time to Tahiti from the north shores of Oahu and Kauai.

"I think that David got his master's degree in movie making," Bersch said in an interview. "I've seen a lot of independent financiers, but I've rarely seen one as good at balancing his own views with the important decisions you have to make to produce a successful film."

FilmDistrict, Sony's marketing partner on "Soul Surfer," screened the film for faith-based groups, Bersch said. The picture is also being marketed through traditional ads and on the talk-show circuit with the stars and Hamilton, now 21, who won her first national title in 2005.

"If we can appeal to the faith-based market, we will do well," Tice said from Los Angeles, where he attended a premiere for the film a week before its release. "And we will do better because we think the uplifting nature of this film will appeal to people who are down on their luck and are looking for something good in life."

Tice is looking for his next film investment, and has set up his own company, Enticing Entertainment. He said he has projects in development that he won't discuss.

"I will be very judicious and I probably won't ever take as big of a chance as I did with this one," he said. "But I'll have a better feel for that on Friday."

* * *

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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



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