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Thursday, March 24, 2011

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United Mining Group Announces US$9 Million Development Program to Accelerate Start Up of the Crescent Silver Mine

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 06:02 AM PDT

United Mining Group, Inc. ("UMG" or the "Company"), (TSX:UMG)(Pinksheets:UMGZF)(Frankfurt:UM8) is pleased to announce a US$9 million pre-production mine development program and operations update on its intermediate-advanced stage Crescent Silver Mine project, located in Silver Valley Idaho, in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District.

ETF Pullback Choices: Aiming at Stability

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:47 AM PDT

The weekly ETF Pullback is finally starting to shift asset exposure in response to the difficult market we've been experiencing since the Middle East erupted in February. It's not a completely defensive posture, which is just as well since trends have come and gone with considerable rapidity of late that we can't even count on continuing market weakness. But it is more defensive than anything I can recall in quite a while. Here's this week's list:

  • CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (FXY)
  • SPDR Barclays Capital TIPS (IPE)
  • PowerShares Dynamic Networking (PXQ)
  • Rydex S&P MidCap 400 Pure Growth (RFG)
  • iShares Barclays TIPS Bond (TIP)

This was last week's list:

  • Index IQ Canada Small Cap (CNDA)
  • PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)
  • GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity (GCC)
  • ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)
  • Global X Silver Miners (SIL)

The essence of the strategy is mean-reversion, The idea here is to look for significant uptrends that have very recently experienced


Complete Story »

FWIW, Prechter just issued "go short on gold and silver"

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:40 AM PDT

Prechter has been wrong about gold and silver, for, well, forever. I still recall his call for "gold below $200" when it broke above $300.:haha:

Maybe he'll be right this time. :haha: Even a broken cuckoo clock is right twice a day.

The Great Silver Bull and the Curious Case of PSLV

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:33 AM PDT

StockSage submits:

I guess you can say that I've been a precious metals bull for virtually my entire life. When I was nine I began receiving silver dollars and one ounce silver Maple Leafs for birthday presents from my parents and grandparents, I still have them. When I won a couple thousand dollars playing poker in college, I bought a few gold Krugerrands when gold was $300/ounce; I still have them. My investment in gold and silver bullion has always had almost an eternal time frame for me, and frankly it isn't enough money to motivate me to sell any of it.

Over the past couple of years, the bullish case for gold and silver has been stated and restated just about everywhere you look; thus I have no interest in delving into that issue here. Back in January, all the precious metal bears crawled out of their caves and took out


Complete Story »

This High-Flying Fund Could Rally for Years

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:27 AM PDT

StreetAuthority submits:

By Nathan Slaughter

You've no doubt heard plenty as to why commodities are going through the roof. Yes, turmoil in the Middle East plays a part. As does a weakening U.S. dollar.

But perhaps the underlying catalyst in the commodities pits is China. The nation's $5 trillion economy is 90 times bigger than it was when economic reforms took place in 1978.

Major industrial hubs like Shenzhen (which has 25,000 manufacturing facilities) deserve much of the credit. China is the world's largest exporter, shipping out huge quantities of toys, electronics, apparel, automobiles and other products. The country accounts for nearly one-fifth of the world's manufacturing activity.

But before you can make a finished good, you have to start with raw materials. You can't assemble cars without steel -- and you can't make steel without coal or iron ore. But these basic building blocks are in relatively short supply.

China devours


Complete Story »

Kinross Proves Diamonds Aren't Forever

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 04:51 AM PDT

Streetwise Blog submits:

Regardless of what Shirley Bassey sings, Kinross Gold (KGC) wanted out of Harry Winston Diamond Corp. (HWD) and has now sold its equity stake position for about $100 million. The position amounted to about 8.5 percent of Harry Winston and comes after a similar transaction between the two companies last summer -- though the previous deal was much more complicated.

Last July, Kinross sold a 20 percent equity stake in Harry Winston that it originally purchased for about $3 per share. By the time Kinross exited, the shares were trading around $12, meaning Kinross probably made about $135 million.

That same day, Kinross also sold its 22.5 percent equity interest in the partnership that held Harry Winston's 40 percent interest in the Diavik diamond mine. The total value of that sale reached $220 million, part of which came in the form of 7.1


Complete Story »

Where can you download historic gold and silver chart excel files?

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 04:31 AM PDT

Hi guys,

I'm new to the forum and wanted to know if anyone might know where I can download historic gold and silver charts in excel/.csv format?

What I'm trying to do is create some charts that show gold and silver ratios to other investment vehicles such as the DOW or Nasdaq.

I spent a few hours looking last night and came up with nothing. Finding the DOW chart was relatively easy at yahoo finance but when it comes to gold and silver I couldn't find a thing.

Thanks in advance

Believer McEwen looks for $5,000 gold before end of cycle

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:51 AM PDT

Mineweb

Silver Cuts New Highs, Vulture Updates

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:51 AM PDT

Got Gold Report

Commercial Real Estate on Borrowed Time?

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:44 AM PDT

Back in 2009 it seemed obvious that the next shoe to fall — or bomb to go off — was commercial real estate. The thinking went something like this: homes go into foreclosure fast, when the mortgage holder loses a job, or the monthly payment adjusts to some ungodly number that dwarfs the hapless homeowner's disposable income, or they simply realize that they can rent a similar house for half the money. Commercial properties take longer to fail because an office building or strip mall has multiple tenants with leases that renew at different times. So even in a deep recession a project might limp along for months or even years before the total number of tenant defections turns its cash flow negative.

2010 was supposed to be the year that thousands of overleveraged commercial properties finally slid into default and took their regional and local bankers down with them.

But like so many "obvious" events, the commercial real estate bust didn't happen. Massive federal hiring supported consumer spending and demand for office space, while extremely low interest rates made it possible for marginal properties to refinance on favorable terms. Lately it has begun to look like commercial real estate might return to "boom" without passing through "bust".

Nope. The government spending part of the equation is about to go negative. See Government Cuts Clip Office Market

Smaller government means less demand for office space, and that is acting as a drag on the recovery of the commercial-real-estate market.

In Washington and elsewhere, government leasing has helped prop up demand in tough times. But now cash-strapped governments are moving to cut back on office space, even as commercial real estate struggles to recover.

In Washington, which has benefited from a surge in space rented by government agencies, the Securities and Exchange Commission renegotiated a 900,000-square-foot lease for new office space down to about 300,000 square feet because the agency didn't get the congressional funding it had counted on to hire new employees.

"We're starting to see the impact of a very, very difficult fiscal situation in the government trickling down to decisions being made for leasing," said Don Miller, chief executive of national landlord Piedmont Office Realty Trust, which will lose the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency as a tenant in at least one building in the wake of the agency's decision to move into some of the space no longer being leased by the SEC.

The biggest impact is likely to come on state and local levels. The states of Illinois, Missouri and Kansas recently hired brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. to reduce real-estate costs, and other states, from California to Florida to South Carolina, are examining ways to pare back their use of space, brokers said.

Investors have taken notice. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. analysts said in a note to clients recently that real-estate investment trusts, or REITs, with a lot of government exposure "should be watched more closely in a budget-tightening environment as renewals may not be the lay-ups they once were." And REITs with lots of government leases have lagged behind peers in recent months.

Brokers and investors expect government demand to slow down. Research firm Reis Inc. predicts occupied office space in Washington will increase by one million square feet this year and about 800,000 square feet next year, compared with a jump of 2.8 million square feet in 2010.

The New York City government has vacated 380,000 square feet since last year when Mayor Michael Bloomberg launched a push to move out of 1.2 million square feet of city-leased space by 2014, for a projected annual savings of $36 million. The program involves consolidation as well as moving toward more open work spaces.

Florida's portfolio of leased office space, at 8.3 million square feet in 2008, has shrunk about 5% since then, said Ann Duncan, president of Vertical Integration, a Tampa, Fla., firm that advises governments, including the state of Florida, on real-estate use. She predicts another decline of roughly 500,000 square feet this year.

Rents have been rising in some prime markets since the depths of the downturn. In Washington's Georgetown market, effective rents were up 2.2% in 2010, according to Reis. In Midtown Manhattan, rents rose 0.2% during the year.

But in many markets rents actually fell last year, with net effective rents down 1.5% nationally, according to Reis. If government agencies contract without the private sector expanding more, downward pressure will continue, some predict.

And In California, Dreams May Turn to Nightmares

Just as the California commercial real-estate market begins to stir from its post-crisis lows, many property developers fear they are about to lose a financing tool needed for hundreds of projects across the state.

Builders are lashing out against a provision in Gov. Jerry Brown's proposed budget that would eliminate the state's 425 redevelopment agencies, local authorities that pay for low-income housing as well as roads, sidewalks and other infrastructure.

The developments cover everything from a proposed $2.2 billion project with houses, shops and transit access across the river from downtown Sacramento to a planned affordable and senior housing development and child-care center near downtown San Diego.

The bond debt that finances infrastructure projects is paid off using part of the increases in local property-tax revenue that result from the development. Under the current model, any extra revenue goes back to the agencies to pay for low-income housing and other improvements. Gov. Brown, whose budget proposal could be voted on as early as this week, said any increased property-tax revenue would be better used to pay for schools and other services.

The plan comes at a dismal time for the construction industry in California, whose boom and bust were more striking than nearly any other state. Construction jobs in California have dwindled to 559,800 from 933,700 at the peak of the housing boom in 2006. Redevelopment has been a rare source of funding for new projects.

California isn't alone in its budget woes: 44 states face projected budget gaps for fiscal 2012, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and other states have eliminated tax programs that benefit developers. California's budget hole, projected to be $26.6 billion in 2012, is the largest in the country.

Some thoughts:

  • Governments at every level in the US are just waking up to the fact that they're broke, so public sector employment — and demand for office space — will decline for years. This is secular, not cyclical; today's cuts will be followed by bigger ones in 2012 and beyond.
  • Commercial real estate busts usually take the marginal, lower-quality properties first. But a lot of the office space now leased to government agencies is relatively high-end, which means some of the better buildings will be under pressure soon.
  • Low interest rates will continue to help, but as bankers notice the above trend they'll be less likely to lend to commercial properties, regardless of the yield on Treasury notes. So the prime rate might stay low but it won't be available to most developers.
  • This validates the observation that the next bubble asset is never the previous one. The liquidity created as the US monetizes its own debt is bypassing real estate and flowing into gold, silver, food and oil.

Silver Review and Outlook

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:25 AM PDT

Good afternoon and thank you all for coming out today. I'd like to thank Joe Martin for inviting me and arranging this conference. This is my third Phoenix Silver Conference, so I thought I might review the silver market by first recapping the highlights of my first two speeches here and then cover what has transpired over the past year.

Making Money on Miners, Part II

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:24 AM PDT

In the first part of this series, I began by laying out the chronology of events which characterizes the development of practically all mining projects.

1) Early exploration

2) Extensive drilling

3) Resource estimate

4) Economic assessment

5) Major financing

6) Construction of mine

7) Commercial production

I reviewed the first phase of development – early  exploration – and began to discuss the second phase: extensive drilling. I wrote in general terms how we as investors plan our investing/trading strategy around these results.

In many respects this extensive drilling is the most crucial phase in the development of any mining project. Obviously the most important aspect of this work is to demonstrate there is enough quantity/quality of ore to justify the huge capital costs which are generally required to bring a mine to production.

Equally important, however, is the efficiency of these mining companies as they explore their properties. Drilling is expensive, labour intensive work. Those management teams who are able to "define" their mineral deposits more quickly and efficiently than their peers will usually reward their shareholders with a superior return on their investments.

Understand that this is typically where most of the "dilution" takes place in the share structure of a mining company. Producing no revenues, the miner must raise fresh capital each time their cash reserves become depleted through prior exploration. Naturally the results obtained in drilling are also a major factor in how much dilution occurs during this phase of development.

A miner who produces some outstanding drill results is usually rewarded with a significant up-tick in the share price of the company. Thus, if a mining company can string together a series of good results in a particular phase of drilling, the significant increase in share price which should accompany those results allows the miner to finance the next stage of operations at a much higher price than the previous stage of drilling.

If shareholders do not observe this "ladder effect" with a miner, where each new financing is being undertaken at a significantly higher share price, then this will generally be a warning sign that (for whatever reason) a miner has not been able to "generate value" in a particular project faster than the miner burns through its cash.

Such a trend can quickly turn the share structure of a mining company into a bloated mountain of paper, where even stellar future results may not provide enough "lift" to move such a large float higher. Obviously investors need to watch for such a trend, and look to make an exit from any/every miner which is not able to avoid this dilution-trap.

What complicates the evaluation of these miners, naturally, are overall market conditions. In a very bearish market, even outstanding results can be completely ignored by investors. Thus, a management team can do everything right, and still be undone to a large extent by simple "bad luck". In such a situation, investors have to choose between sticking with a miner labouring under this adversity, or to look for another miner which (for one reason or another) has not been as negatively impacted by sentiment.

On the other hand, we must also be aware that during bullish extremes in the market, we will see virtually all of the miners rocketing higher – even the "dogs" of the sector. Under-performing companies will have already been punished by the market when sentiment was poorer, so when sentiment soars higher, even the more dubious companies will rise with the market, as investors look for "bargains". This is why we must be studious in following the developments of these companies, as share price performance alone will not provide an accurate picture as to whether or not we should continue to hold a particular miner.

38.00 + Silver (Where are the silver rockets)

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 03:19 AM PDT

Come'on guys, where are the silver rockets.

Or at least get silver Sammy back in... :biggrin:

Bottom in Gold and Breakdown in USD

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:00 AM PDT

SunshineProfits

Gold New highs, thank you to all the haters who keep me sharp

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 01:50 AM PDT

$US dollar just got SMOKED.

The world's best silver stock keeps getting better

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 01:08 AM PDT

From Mineweb:

Silver Wheaton announced Wednesday that attributable proven and probable reserves increased by more than 9% last year to a record 954 million silver equivalent ounces.

Attributable measured and indicated resources increased by 1% during the same period to 377 million silver equivalent ounces.

Proven and probable silver reserves increased from 861.8 million ounces as of Dec. 31, 2009, to 942 million ounces as of Dec. 31, 2010. Proven and probable gold reserves were reported at 248,000 ounces as of year-end 2010.

The company attributed the increase in 2010 reserves to...

Read full article...

More on silver:

Where this rocket move in precious metals could end

Resource guru Sprott: "Three-digit price" for silver coming soon

Top precious metals CEO confirms: We don't have enough silver

The mid-east crisis has created huge value in this emerging market sector

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 12:52 AM PDT

From Frontier Markets:

Though Etisalat remains in our view the head and shoulders frontier market telecom equity to hold from both a value and growth standpoint given its relatively high EBITDA margin, wide geographical footprint and strong net cash position, Egypt’s hitherto distressed domestic sector presents its own opportunities.

Ahead of [Wednesday's] stock exchange reopening, and while reiterating his long-term confidence in Egypt to Bloomberg yesterday, Templeton Asset Management’s Mark Mobius underscored telecoms in particular as one of his favorite sectors.

To that end, both Orascom Telecom (OT) and...

Read full article...

More on emerging markets:

Why silver is becoming the world's crisis currency

Top manager Dalio: The rush to own commodities will continue

It could be a great time to buy the world's cheapest frontier market

This could be the best company you've never heard of

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 12:49 AM PDT

From Crossing Wall Street:

Two weeks ago, I highlighted Raven Industries (RAVN) and its remarkable long-term track record (up 210-fold in 30 years).

In that post, I noted that Raven has raised its dividend every year for the past 24 years and said to expect raise #25 very soon.

Well…#25 came yesterday:

Raven Industries, Inc. announced today that its board of directors approved a 12.5 percent increase in the company’s regular quarterly cash dividend to 18 cents per share. The dividend is payable...

Read full article...

More on stocks:

Marc Faber: "Lifetime buying opportunity" in these cheap stocks

These could be the No. 1 "safe haven" stocks for the next few months

Casey Research reveals the top takeover targets in the junior mining sector

Bond giant Pimco: Prepare for "global inflation"

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 12:45 AM PDT

From Zero Hedge:

As was first disclosed by Zero Hedge, PIMCO trimmed its Treasury holdings in February to zero.

While many speculated that the reason is concern for global inflation, we now have the confirmation courtesy of a rhetorical Q&A with Saumil Parikh released by the Newport asset management giant.

In a nutshell: "Setting aside immediate oil shocks, we believe global inflation has cyclically troughed and we see a secular upswing in inflation, which naturally will put upward pressure on interest rates.

We see three key global factors as potentially adding to inflation over a long horizon...

Read full article...

More from Pimco:

Pimco CEO: These investors should prepare for major losses

Bond giant Pimco is making a huge bet that deflationists are wrong

Pimco's El-Erian: Middle Eastern crisis is a huge warning for the U.S.dollar

Help Me Please !!

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 12:37 AM PDT

I promised my self I would not buy silver over $30, I'm having somekind of withdrawl, I need a silver patch, my fingers are twitching, beads of sweat forming on my forehead, I need placement in silver anonymous. Theres a coin show this saturday 40 miles from me, how do I not go? The ultimate test, will I fail?:s10:

Hello World! Welcome to the end of the 3rd inning in this silver trade...

Posted: 24 Mar 2011 12:04 AM PDT

Great night, nothing to get excited about. I am expecting a silver margin hike today, as Gold has not broken out yet to new highs. I would expect a run to $38 with some resistance there. $US just went bidless. Possibly because it worth less than shit, if shit even had an intrinsic value to beginning with. I took this picture from Jesse's Americain Cafe Blog. Its good. I suspect Tinka

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