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What’s driving the Silver Price?
Aegean Marine: Fueling the Global Shipping Fleet
8 Stocks John Paulson, George Soros and Lee Ainslie Are Extremely Bullish About
The Pros and Cons of Buying Gold Bars, Ingots and Coins
QE: Hyperinflation to Oblivion
Matthew Zylstra: Value in Small-Cap Gold Producers
Beijing Urged to Hoard Gold as Crude Oil Rebounds, Weak Eurozone Bond Yields Soar
GoldCore Update: China Likely to Add to Growing Gold Reserves
Why the Ongoing Weakness in Nominal Spending?
Is the Dollar Overvalued? Different Views
What is the total cost to sell on eBAY including paypal, etc?
Dow in Silver
Chart Focus: Safety Dance
China Adviser – Buy Gold Bullion with Nearly $3 Trillion Chinese Reserves
This could be the most important thing Porter Stansberry has ever written
Top precious metals analyst: Be careful buying silver today
Gov't HORROR: Handouts are soaring to unbelievable levels
ICELAND Gets It
Gold and Oil as Economic Delimiters
Heavy Hitters Talk About The Virtues of Gold
The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching
Sprott says silver will keep outshining gold
Ted Butler, silver position limits make Wall Street Journal, thanks to 'Charlie Sheen'
Forget $8,000, Gold Headed Much Higher: James Turk
Gold not even close to being overvalued yet - Doug Casey

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 12:00 PM PST

The Silver Price is hitting new recent highs at $36.55 today in a more vigorous performance than even gold. Many in the developed world precious metal markets are amazed at the performance of silver and see this continuing, whereas others feel it is running away with itself. The "backwardation" in silver [when 'spot' – or immediate delivery prices are higher than for future delivery] has stressed just how much immediate demand there is for silver and clearly a physical shortage of the metal has arisen. There are two apparently conflicting pictures of the role of silver. The industrial side of silver demand, currently thriving and the investment side, which is also thriving and should continue to do so.

Aegean Marine: Fueling the Global Shipping Fleet

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PST

SL Advisors submits:

Aegean Marine Petroleum (ANW) offers an interesting twist on the shipping sector. The big story in shipping for several quarters has been the looming supply of new ships ordered during better economic times prior to the credit crisis. The three commercial freight sectors of dry bulk, containers and tankers are all suffering from depressed daily rates as fleet capacity continues to grow faster than demand. We have selective investments in two companies that we believe are well managed, have low levels of debt and trade at a substantial discount to tangible value - they are Overseas Shipholding (OSG) and Euroseas (ESEA) - but a pickup in rates does not appear imminent.

ANW provides bunker fuel to the shipping industry. We liked the complimentary business model – at a time when fleet capacity is expanding, providing fuel looks analogous to selling gold miners pick axes. There does not appear to be

Complete Story »

8 Stocks John Paulson, George Soros and Lee Ainslie Are Extremely Bullish About

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:26 AM PST

Insider Monkey submits:

John Paulson is the most succesful hedge fund manager of the last four years. He made $4 billion by betting against subprime mortgage investments in 2007 and another $5 billion by betting on gold and the recovery of the economy in 2010. Paulson's Paulson & Co. manages separate client-focused portfolios, employing merger arbitrage, long/short, and event-driven strategies. Paulson uses fundamental analysis to make his investments.Paulson & Co. had 102 stocks in its 13F portfolio valued at $29.3 billion at the end of December.

Lee Ainslie is a pure long/short equity investor . He doesn't trade bonds, currencies, commodities or options. He buys what he thinks will beat the market and he sells what he thinks will underperform. It's as simple as that. He's beaten the S&P 500 index on average by about 6-7 percentage points annually but with 50% less volatility. Ainslie's Maverick Capital had 78 stocks in its 13F portfolio

Complete Story »

The Pros and Cons of Buying Gold Bars, Ingots and Coins

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:26 AM PST

For a long time the buying and selling of gold has been outside the reach of the average citizen. The predominate banknote and the dominant currencies previously managed to position themselves very well in respect of the precious metal during stable periods. However, it is during difficult times [such as these when] quantitative easing and currency wars have highlighted the volatility and vulnerability of currencies...that the true, safe value of gold really stands out...Fortunately, it is now easier for you to convert your savings into gold... [than ever before and this article outlines the reason for buying physical gold and the advantages and disadvantages of buying gold bars, ingots and/or coins. Read on!] Words: 853

QE: Hyperinflation to Oblivion

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:54 AM PST

USFed Chairman Bernanke and the Quantitative Easing programs are caught in a negative feedback loop, the instruments at risk being the USDollar and the USTreasury Bond. The former suffers from lost integrity and direct inflation effect. The latter suffers from direct intervention and market ruin. The next QE round is guaranteed by the failure of the previous program in an endless cycle to be recognized later this year. Leaders are confused why the recovery does not take root. It is because the entire system is insolvent, and the 0% rate assures total capital destruction, not to mention the big US banks are sacred, never to be liquidated, a primary condition for recovery. Liquidation is tantamount to abdication of power of the Purse and control of the Printing Pre$$, never to happen. The greatest hidden damage is psychological, where the USDollar and its erstwhile trusted USTreasury Bond are no longer viewed as the safe haven. Capital destruction is the main byproduct of monetary inflation, a concept totally foreign to the inflation engineers at the USFed and its satellite central banks. They are agents of magnificent systemic devastation. In the wake of each QE round are discouraged creditors who turn away in disgust. The damage and inflation feeds upon itself in stages of intense wreckage. The motive, need, and desperation for QE3 is being formed here and now, to be announced by late summer probably. Prepare for QE to infinity, endless hyper-inflation, a process that cannot be stopped, as the urgent needs grows. Any attempt to halt the process results in almost immediate total annihilation. So continuation of QE rounds serves to manage the deterioration process and guide the financial structures gradually and orderly into oblivion.

VICIOUS CYCLE FEEDS UPON ITSELF

Simply stated, each QE round guarantees the next round, since damage is done, nothing is remedied, and the funding needs intensify. The list of damage factors is actually growing. The main factor is capital destruction from monetary inflation, as the price of capital is declared zero, and it flees from the USEconomy. Witness the industry long gone, hardly a critical mass remaining to support the system with legitimate income. Government regulation and taxes assure the flight continues in exodus. Almost half of the US Gross Domestic Product is derived from financial paper shuffling, whose negative value has been clearly displayed in the form of mortgage bond wreckage, profound bond fraud, home foreclosure processing, absent home equity withdrawals, bankruptcy processing, and piles of debt that burden households. US economists fail to comprehend the entire concept of capital, this from the supposed leading capitalist nation. The banking and political leaders struggle to produce jobs without a clue of what capital is, instead seeking to put cash in consumer hands. They should pursue business formation, with capital investment, encourage risk taking, provide broad tax incentives, and lead the consumer spending process with job creation and income production. But no. They prefer QE, the accelerator that pushes the nation over the cliff.

The bond market has been disrupted and corrupted, as the debt monetization has driven off foreign creditors, leaving the USFed isolated as buyer. The 0% rate slows the USEconomy tremendously by removing a proper return on honest savings. Return on capital is greatly disrupted all through the USEconomy. The heavily increased monetary supply maintains the emphasis on asset bubbles, as desperation sets in to find the next asset to produce a new bubble. The answer is USTreasury Bonds. A mildly violent reaction has come to the long-term USTBonds, while the short-term USTBills stay near 0% but with the aid of intense leverage power of Interest Rate Swaps. The long end reacts negatively to QE, while the short end is under QE control from the big bulging bid. The entire financial structure is crumbling under the surface. The USEconomy will continue to falter at minus 3% to minus 5% growth in a powerful ongoing recession, covered up by the fraudulent quarter to quarter calculations that permit deep deceptions from adjustments. Businesses cannot justify any expansion, given the household dependence upon home equity has vanished. Businesses have been put on notice, a certain shock, that the national health care plan will place greater burden on the business models. So the USGovt deficits will perpetuate in high volume, making the supply overwhelming in USTreasury securities and making the creditors retreat in a cringe of fear, shock, and disgust. The more the USFed buys its own paper feces with USTBond labels, the more the securities lose their security, the more the foreign creditors refuse to participate in the next auction, the more the integrity of the US$ and USTBond is shredded and lost. The United States has become a Weimar nation with gradual global recognition. Instead of a recovery, it slides into the Third World. Thus the need for the USFed to cover the next USTreasury auction in full, or almost in full. It is deeply committed to monetizing the entire USGovt debt. Call it Weimar, Third World, Banana Republic, whatever!!

An encouragement has come from the QE movement to the entire world to revolt against the USDollar, to seek an alternative, to establish bilateral trade mechanisms, and to bypass the current system that enables privilege, fraud, market meddling, which permits an unwarranted standard of living to the US and its people. The bilateral accords between Russia and China, between China and Brazil, between Germany and Russia, and between India and Iran are all telltale signs of revolt. They wish not to participate in the US$-based system. The consequence is a new trend to diversify out of the USTreasurys with existing reserves, and to avoid accumulation in the future within banking systems for satisfaction of trade settlement in global commerce. The foundation on a global level is crumbling for the USDollar. As the bilateral links build, eventually enough fabric will be woven to support a new global currency, or a new global system. Often mentioned in certain circles is a sophisticated barter system, built upon high level credits in exchange, with a vast trickle down flow of funds, within a balanced system. Nations addicted to deficits will be left out in the cold. The most deficit ridden is the United States, dragged down by endless war costs. Their location has another name, the Third World.

Furthermore, the inflation effect has crossed from the monetary side to the price systems, hitting the entire cost structure in a profound way. The moron bankers strive to cut off the process from handing higher wages to the workers, so that they can afford a higher cost of living. The leaders thus strive to bankrupt the Middle Class, hardly a pursuit in commitment of economic recovery. The cost squeeze is deeply felt by both businesses and households, businesses that cannot hold their workers as profits erode badly, and households that cannot maintain their spending patterns as incomes are devoted increasingly to food, fuel, clothing, insurance, and everything else. Tax revenues from wages and corporate profits and capital gains are descending into the gutter, not available to cover the USGovt deficits. Witness the death of the USEconomy in hyper-drive, pushed by the USFed Quantitative Easing. The impact on the worsening recession at the macro level, and the shrinking of both businesses and households, translates to larger deficits. Notice that in early 2009 when QE1 was first announced, and later when QE-Lite was announced, the USGovt minions forecasted reduced budget deficits for 2010 and 2011. The USGovt posted its largest monthly deficit in history in February, a $223 billion shortfall. Most decisions center on budget cuts, for education, welfare, projects, and more, while war spending is largely intact, priorities revealed. They have no clue how to build tax revenues. The Jackass forecast was for greater deficits due to the ravages of capital destruction and cost inflation, which both arrived with billboard attachments. The dependence therefore upon the USFed for its Printing Pre$$ buyer of USTreasury Bonds will increase with each QE round, assuring the next round.

The harsh savage negative reaction to QE2 kicked into high gear the movement of funds out of the USTreasury complex and into commodities generally. The shift to financial commodities in Gold & Silver has been even greater than for crude oil, the traditional hedge. Despite not being the leading non-financial commodity in price increase, the crude oil impact is enormous, in food production, in transportation costs, and especially in industrial feedstock costs. The result is an energy tax, compounded by a systemic cost that acts like a gigantic tax. The USFed QE program thus imposed a significant tax increase on the entire USEconomy. The entire population is aware, except for the USFed, the Wall Street master, and banking elite. Actually, they are aware, but they cannot speak about the scourge they unleashed since they would invite criticism and turn the blame onto themselves for destroying the United States financially, economically, and systemically. The moral fiber is long gone among leaders, as the US nation is being recognized as a fraud king playpen. The end result is that in the cycle, movement from USTreasurys to the USEconomy is not happening during this death spiral, as it normally does. Instead, the next bubble is in the entire commodity arena. Beware that such a trend is highly destructive, since it erodes the profit margins and disposable income, thus causing deep recession if not systemic collapse. The energy and material tax renders huge harm, pushing the system into a deeper recession. It never ended.

Money is fleeing bonded paper, as all bond markets are in a severe situation. Even the stock market is supported heavily by the Working Group for Financial Markets and Flash Trading, a form of self-dealing, whereby both prop up stock share prices. Hence, the USFed is left more isolated to purchase its own inbred cousin toxic paper securities. The USFed must continue with QE3, the only remaining details are the securities that join the USTreasurys. My bet is state and municipal bonds, along with a bigger swath of mortgage bonds that would otherwise be put back to the Big US Banks, the dead pillars taking up space casting long shadows. Numerous are the bond candidates for official rescue, since all of them are in deep trouble. Buyers are simply vanishing. The bond markets is in ruins, propped by QE.

LAST ASSET BUBBLE

The tragedy is that the USTreasury Bond is the location of the biggest and most important asset bubble in the last 100 years. It is propped by the QE debt purchase, enforced by the USFed, made urgently necessary by the USGovt deficits, and blessed by the USDept Treasury. The USTBond bubble is the last bubble with any semblance of positive benefit. The next bubble in commodities will be negative, harsh, and highly destruction, as they will lift costs without a corresponding rise in wages. That event has already been triggered. The key characteristic of asset bubbles is that in the late stages, they require an accelerated source of funds just to maintain their inflated condition. The QE programs will be endless because the USTBond bubble demands it, even infinite funds. Thus the mantra in criticism of QE TO INFINITY. With the heightened source and blossoming channels to fund it, the integrity of the USTreasury Bond complex will be ruined even as the reputation and prestige of the USDollar will be shattered. This is an end chapter, marked by central bank frachise model failure.

USDOLLAR FACES THE ABYSS

The US$ DX index is a bad joke, but its performance is highly revealing. As preface, the DX major component is the Euro, even though the biggest trade partner of the United States is Canada, with Mexico and China close behind. The argument is old and tired. Rare is the 30-year chart offered by the Jackass, since its reliance as a tool is often evidence of shallow analysis and little insight to offer for the current year and its main events. But the historical USDollar chart shows the great danger, since the world banking system rests on its unit of exchange. The DX index lows from 1991, 1992, 1995, and 2005 have all been breached, a major warning signal. Jesse at Cafe Americain points out the pennant flag pattern formed in the last three years. It must resolve up or down. My contention is that the pennant has already been broken on the lower barrier, a bear signal. The next QE3 announcement should send the DX index heading fast toward the 2008 critical low with a 71-72 handle. It is written; it will be done.

Many technical analysts are pre-occupied with monitoring the critical support levels. Those levels are 72, 75, and 76.5, seen in the weekly chart. Instead, focus on the lower barrier of the crucial pennant. The pennant trendline has been broken on the downside, an important development. Traders in the currencies, a multi-$trillion market, will take the minor technical breakdown and push the already weak USDollar lower. Many argue the Euro is in deep trouble, with a union in the midst of dismantlement. That might be true, but in the Reverse Beauty Pageant, the USDollar is by far the ugliest of the coined damsels. Its deficits are on par with the PIGS of Southern Europe in percentage terms. Besides, the US is the site of QE, the greatest monetary inflation scourge in modern history. Notice that the bounce in recovery off the October and November low of 76.5 could not manage a rise about the 20-week or the 50-week moving average. Those MA series serve as current overhead resistance. The DX chart is caught in powerful downward momentum. My forecast is for a breach of 76 in the next few weeks, and a battle of paramount importance at 74, the next critical support.

The intraday US$ DX chart shows more trouble in the very short term. The recovery off the 76 floor could not be maintained. In fact, the sudden swoon displayed its weakness if not artificial props. Be sure that the USDept Treasury with its fascist business model trusty tagteam of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are trying to do the herculean feat of preventing the USDollar from a powerful decline. The ugly truth is that JPM & GS are probably trying to manage the decline in the USDollar down to the 50-60 range in the US$ DX index, all as part of the USGovt agenda. The plan is to weaken the USDollar sufficiently enough to make the USEconomy competitive again with respect to export trade. The backfire in their faces is the price inflation curse and anathema. The price structures will rise first from the QE exercise in Weimar desperation, and will rise second from the US$ decline most assuredly worse than its major currency competitors. The report card will be seen in a much worse recession in the USEconomy, grander USGovt fiscal deficits, even larger USTBond issuance, and more grotesque QE debt monetization more characterisitic of a Third World Banana Republic.

SWIRL DOWN TOILET IN DETERIORATION

Within the Jackass archives, an item was found from work done in 2005. What began as a graphic display of the grand liquidity trap emanating from the failed housing & mortgage bubble has turned out to be highly relevant in the aggressive metastasizing process from monetary inflation cancer combined with basic economic deterioration from capital destruction. Many are the ills of the USEconomy and its fractured financial foundation. Take the time to note all the different powerful factors at work that slow the entire system down. Forces are shown from external shocks and internal shocks. The money supply velocity is falling, ordered slower by the short-term interest rate stuck at 0%, the Zero Interest Rate Policy described as an important chamber label of failure. Recall the empty calls for an Exit Strategy throughout 2009 and into early 2010, as vacant as the Green Shoots and Jobless Recovery basis of propaganda that unmasks the fraudulent bank leadership. The Fed Funds Rate stuck at 0% cannot rise by USFed dictate, because the housing market would implode more quickly, because the USEconomy would sink more quickly, because the US stock market would dive like a dead mallard, because the USGovt borrowing costs would bring more deficit from debt service than other major items. The USFed has been backed in a corner for two years, no longer relying upon a temporary 0% rate to stimulate. It is stuck with 0% as a badge of dishonor, as a two ton cement block around its neck, as a Weimar membership card. The complex chart should remind the reader of a toilet, sewer drain, or even a rectum.

Some advice. As the movement swirls, as the next QE program details are revealed, as the central bank model is shattered in discredit, as the global monetary system crumbles before your eyes, as sovereign debt worldwide loses its exalted safe haven security, as your personal budget finances erode beyond your worst nightmare, invest what is left of your life savings in Gold and especially Silver. In time, they will be the primary portions of your portfolio with surviving value. Each will rise, but Silver will do a moon shot!!

THE HAT TRICK LETTER PROFITS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS.

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At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.
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Matthew Zylstra: Value in Small-Cap Gold Producers

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:48 AM PST

Beijing Urged to Hoard Gold as Crude Oil Rebounds, Weak Eurozone Bond Yields Soar

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:43 AM PST

GoldCore Update: China Likely to Add to Growing Gold Reserves

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:40 AM PST

Mark O'Byrne submits:

Renewed fears over eurozone debt have seen the euro fall against most currencies and precious metals today. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds is approaching an alarming 13% after jumping to a new record high of 12.89% today (see bond charts below). The Portuguese 10-year rose to a new record high of 7.7% ahead of today's auction where they borrowed 1 billion euros in order to avoid a "bailout".

The risk of contagion in the eurozone has clearly not gone away and this is another primary factor supporting gold above the $1,400/oz and the €1,000/oz level. The charts contradict those who simplistically call gold a bubble with gold having seen a period of correction and consolidation since November last year and looking like it is ready to break out and challenge new highs above $1,500/oz and EUR1,100/oz in the coming weeks.

Gold in Japanese yen has continued its gradual rise

Complete Story »

Why the Ongoing Weakness in Nominal Spending?

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:36 AM PST

David Beckworth submits:

Why has total current dollar spending been so anemic? Even after accounting for the run up in nominal spending during the housing boom, it is still below trend and continues to be a drag on the recovery. A useful way to answer this question is to look at the three components of nominal spending: The monetary base, the money multiplier, and velocity.

The monetary base is simply the stock of money assets directly created by the Fed. The money multiplier shows to what extent the monetary base is supporting expansion of other more commonly used money assets like checking, saving and money market accounts. If the monetary base is not supporting an expansion of these other money assets it is because there is an elevated demand for the monetary base and vice versa. The money multiplier, therefore, is an indicator of the demand for the monetary base. Velocity shows how

Complete Story »

Is the Dollar Overvalued? Different Views

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:31 AM PST

Elliott R. Morss submits:

At the recent G-20 meetings, U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner argued that the RMB was undervalued (read: USD overvalued). He said we need a better set of incentives to promote external sustainability and reduce the risk of the re-emergence of large trade and current account imbalances. He pushed for a set of "indicative guidelines" on appropriate currency valuations.

China did not buy it. Several journalists reported that the talks collapsed before the meetings had wrapped up. China does not like to be pushed around, and it wants to keep the dollar strong to support its exporters. So what do we know about USD values? Read on.

The Weakening USD

Since the U.S. started to run large trade deficits in the mid-'90s, the USD has weakened considerably. Table 1 provides data on how much value the dollar has lost against a number of currencies since 1995.

Table 1. – US$ Value Loss,

Complete Story »

What is the total cost to sell on eBAY including paypal, etc?

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 03:23 AM PST

Has anyone got experience with this?

Lets say I sell a roll of coins for $600 and I had starting bid set at $600.

I know there are listing fees...

There is a final price fee. Is that 9%?

I know there is freight, say $10, but I can figure that out approximately ahead.

Will there be any fees I have to pay for Paypal to take the money and actually get it to my bank account?

How long will it actually take to get to my account, about?

Any obvious scary things I should do or not do to avoid trouble?

If there is some link to someplace that would help me figure this out, please post it. Ebay's info is I suspect intentionally difficult to find.

Dow in Silver

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 02:19 AM PST

Chart Focus: Safety Dance

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 02:03 AM PST

A market narrative via annotated charts (below the jump).

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM)

S&P futures (SP)

Utilities Spdr (XLU)

Netflix (NFLX)

MGM Resorts (MGM)

Volatility ETN (VXX)

$USD Index ($USD)

Copper futures (HG)

Silver futures (SI)

China Adviser – Buy Gold Bullion with Nearly $3 Trillion Chinese Reserves

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 01:31 AM PST

gold.ie

This could be the most important thing Porter Stansberry has ever written

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 12:07 AM PST

From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:

Here I go again… By now, almost everyone reading the Digest knows we set aside Friday's for me to write personally. And though I've rejected the idea that people can teach anything (there is no teaching, only learning) – I can't seem to help myself. If you're tired of suffering through these lessons, you'll be happy to know my impulse to empower our subscribers by showing them a few of the more unpleasant truths about finance has cost me a lot of money.

As I knew they would, my essays about the importance of cash and asset allocation (when you buy what) resulted in a torrent of refund demands – about $1 million worth in the last two weeks.

... It is a quirk of human nature that most people don't want to learn anything new and react negatively to anyone who challenges their deeply held views (even when they're obviously wrong). You'll know I'm truly a glutton for punishment when you realize the subject of this Digest: Our country's severe financial crisis.

Writing about this topic has led to far greater problems than cancellations. I've gotten threatening letters and angry e-mails from folks who seem to believe that pointing out these dangers is tantamount to causing them.

More than two years ago (December 2008), I first warned in my newsletter that America would eventually lose its world reserve currency status and our debt crisis would lead to a massive inflation. I call this complex series of issues the "End of America." Not because I believe it will lead to the end of our political union (though it might), but because I believe we're heading into a crisis that will be far worse than anyone has yet realized. The crisis will result in a significant decline in our standard of living. These are deadly serious issues and I meant every word I wrote.

Even so, two years ago, lots of folks actually laughed at me – including a few in my own office. Not anymore. If you saw the Wall Street Journal headline last week ("Why the Dollar's Reign is Near an End") or if you saw Sam Zell (the most successful real estate investor of all time) on CNBC, you know many of the smartest folks in our country take my warning seriously. Said Zell:

My single biggest financial concern is the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency. I can't imagine anything more disastrous to our country… you're already seeing things in the markets that are suggesting that confidence in the dollar is waning… I think you could see a 25% reduction in the standard of living in this country if the U.S. dollar was no longer the world's reserve currency. That's how valuable it is.

So today, I want to update some key figures of my End of America report. I want you to know where we stand. This is important enough to risk the inevitable criticisms (and refunds). But I want to take one criticism out of play right now. Don't bother writing to complain about my "politics."

This has absolutely nothing to do with politics. This matter is purely about economics. The facts, as you'll see, are completely clear to anyone who bothers to learn them. We are spending way beyond our means – both publicly and privately. Worse, this spending has warped the incentives in our economy, resulting in not only debts we can't afford, but outcomes we don't seek. At the heart of this crisis, there's a knowledge problem.

Most Americans don't understand even the most basic facts about our country's financial position, nor do they take the time to consider the likely outcome of poorly structured government programs.

So please, don't write to me about politics. I don't care about the Democrats, Republicans, or even the Tea Partiers. I don't care whose "fault" it is, because these debts belong to all of us. I care about the people who live in America… people who are going to be wiped out because of feckless leadership and genuine ignorance. I can't do anything about our leadership – that's up to you. I can try to do something about the ignorance.

In our search for facts and solid financial thinking, let's start with Warren Buffett, who is neither feckless nor stupid. Buffett is the world's best investor. He got that way primarily by figuring out how to correctly value equities and allocate assets… and because he learned one of the most valuable financial secrets in modern finance: why insurance companies are so valuable. (Hint: It's the float. But that's a discussion for another day.)

Buffett has become a sort of "rich uncle" to America, giving helpful advice about financial matters. And he recently said something that struck me as profound – something I'd wager almost everyone else ignored. Buffett explained why the buyers of his mobile homes (Clayton Homes) default at rates (1.86%) much lower than the national average for homebuilders (more than 25%). That's true, even though the buyers of his mobile homes typically have low incomes, less job stability, and lower credit scores than the buyers of conventional housing. If you read nothing else in today's Digest, please pay attention to what Buffett says here:

Our borrowers get in trouble when they lose their jobs, have health problems, get divorced, etc. The recession has hit them hard. But they want to stay in their homes, and generally they borrowed sensible amounts in relation to their income.

In addition, we were keeping the originated mortgages for our own account, which means we were not securitizing or otherwise reselling them. If we were stupid in our lending, we were going to pay the price. That concentrates the mind. If homebuyers throughout the country had behaved like our buyers, America would not have had the crisis that it did. Our approach was simply to get a meaningful down payment and gear fixed monthly payments to a sensible percentage of income. This policy kept Clayton solvent and also kept buyers in their homes…

… A house can be a nightmare if the buyer's eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender – often protected by a government guarantee – facilitates his fantasy. Our country's social goal should not be to put families into the house of their dreams, but rather to put them into a house they can afford.

Pretty simple, eh? Don't sell houses to folks who can't afford them. And make sure both the lender (who kept the note) and the borrower (who made a down payment – equity) have plenty of "skin in the game."

You don't want to create any incentive for the deal to go bad. You want both parties to have a powerful incentive to do what they've promised. After ignorance, almost all our country's core problems come back to these same issues: a lack of equity and poorly designed incentives. Remember these concepts. You'll see them again: skin in the game (equity) and properly designed incentives.

Let me take on the toughest problem first: Medicare/Medicaid. Since the government established this program in 1965, it has amassed a $5.6 trillion deficit. This program alone accounts for 40% of our government's total debt. If you could erase these debts, our most recent two foreign wars (Iraq/Afghanistan), and the losses associated with the recent financial crisis, you could eliminate more than half our entire federal debt – a debt threatening to destroy our way of life.

Whether you'd choose to eliminate these debts by eliminating these programs is a political question. I'm not going to discuss politics here. The point I'm trying to make is, regardless of what you'd choose, we have to make a choice. We can't afford to do all of these things.

Like the subprime buyers in the housing bubble, we've bought a government we cannot afford. That's a simple fact. It should be obvious to any thinking person that when government spending makes up 45% of GDP (as it does today) and there's one government employee for every six households, something has gone terribly wrong with America.

When my parents were born, America was still the land of the free. The incentives people faced were different. Before World War II, the federal government made up only 3% of GDP. It didn't provide health care. People had to maintain their health, as best they could. People didn't depend on Ponzi finance (Social Security) for their old age – they had to save. They had to take care of their families and help take care of the unfortunate in their communities.

We didn't spend a lot on the military, either… which gave us an incentive to mind our own business. In fact, back then, our presidents promised to keep us out of foreign wars. Both Wilson and Roosevelt came to power promising to keep us out of the war in Europe. They lied. Almost every other president since has sent our boys to die for others wherever they could. War is good for business… and good for the government.

Lots of people reading this will say, "I don't want to live in a country like that, where the government doesn't provide a social safety net." Other readers might say, "I don't want America to be 'isolationist.' We need more troops overseas to fight terrorism." OK… So maybe 3% of GDP is not enough for the government we will choose. But 45% of GDP is much too large – again that's not a political choice; we simply cannot afford it.

So how then will we decide? My suggestion: Pay more attention to incentives. And demand much more equity from the voters.

Here are some interesting facts:

In 1965 – when Congress created Medicare/Medicaid and greatly expanded the federal government's role in health care – about 13% of Americans were obese. Today, 32% of Americans are obese.

Before the government enacted Social Security, Americans typically saved between 15% and 20% of their incomes. Today? Almost nothing. In fact, for many years, the savings rate in America was actually negative.

Before the Great Depression, there wasn't any government unemployment insurance. Not surprisingly, there was almost zero long-term unemployment.

One more interesting fact… the U.S. didn't experience a Great Depression until the Federal Reserve was created. The main purpose of the Federal Reserve is to ensure that banks don't fail. Sounds good. But it provides a perverse incentive for banks to act recklessly, which causes bigger booms and busts – just like the one we're experiencing right now.

I'm not arguing government spending is the primary cause of any of these problems. But I am saying you'd have to be a fool to believe incentives don't play a big role in human action. Think about why all politicians try to spend more than they collect in taxes. They have a huge incentive to promise more than they can deliver – and to make up the difference by borrowing against future taxes or printing more money.

The problems created by the perverse incentives of collectivist actions are well known. They are as old as the ideas themselves. They explain why socialism and communism always lead to failure. And yet… we seem eager to pursue these policies in an almost mindless pursuit of bankruptcy. Why? That's not hard to figure out either.

What's the No. 1 reason people make bad decisions? They don't have to suffer the consequences.

Which investors made worse decisions during the mortgage bubble? Was it the private hedge-fund managers, whose entire net worth was made up of the assets in their own funds and whose friends and families had invested alongside them? Or was it the senior managers of publicly owned banks, whose creditors were protected by the federal government and who owned little of their own company's equity?

That's easy to answer, even if you knew nothing about the financial crisis. Unless people have a stake in the outcome of an event, they are very likely to choose poorly or recklessly.

The most difficult problem we face today is, far too few Americans have any equity in our government. Less than half of all Americans pay any federal taxes. Don't listen to the nonsense about how almost everyone pays payroll taxes. It's true, but it's irrelevant. Payroll taxes don't come close to covering the costs of the entitlement programs they support.

Cutting government spending will be easy compared to trying to increase the average citizen's equity in government. But we must. People will always demand more from the government until they realize how expensive government solutions really are. And the only way to show them is to share the burdens of government more equally.

Now, I know what you're thinking… I'm making a political argument to reduce the progressive nature of our tax system. I'm not. I'm pointing out a simple fact: When half the voters don't pay for any of the true costs of the government, your society is going to suffer terrible governance.

A democracy that concentrates the overwhelming burden of government on a tiny minority of the population is no different than an investment bank making bad loans and then selling them to someone else. You can't separate the people making the decisions from the costs and the risks of those decisions. And yet, that's what we've done.

We've reached a point where we can longer continue on our current path. America spends 800% more than its nearest rival on its military. We spend 200%-300% more per capita on health care than any other similarly wealthy country. Are we safer? Are we healthier? I honestly don't think so.

And even if you believe we are, can we afford it? Here are the simple numbers. Americans now owe $56 trillion in total debt, much of it held by foreign investors. We must spend $3.5 trillion each year on interest. That is already more than the federal government spends, in total. I do not exaggerate when I tell you we cannot afford these debts. We will never be able to repay these debts – already equal to roughly four times our country's GDP. The largest components of the debts we owe are government debts… and they are growing rapidly and show no signs of stopping.

The only way to stop the debt crisis we face is to reduce the total level of government spending – immediately and permanently. We have to stop giving our citizens improper incentives. We have to increase the "skin" voters have in the game by spreading the burden of government more equally. And most important, we must take away the politicians' ability to debase our currency.

You see… politicians believe, as Dick Cheney famously said, deficits don't matter. They believe these debts can be safely printed away – which is what the Federal Reserve is doing right now.

How can we accomplish these goals? I believe we need three simple amendments to our Constitution. First, we should have a balanced budget amendment. It's hard to imagine why anyone would object to this, regardless of his politics. Politicians ought not have the right to burden future Americans with debt. It's disgusting that we would leave a burden like this for our children and grandchildren.

Next, we need a constitutional amendment that ensures sound money. If you tell the politicians they're not allowed to borrow, they'll inflate instead. There is no reason Americans shouldn't enjoy the stability and safety of sound money.

Every argument you'll hear against backing our currency with gold comes from bankers and swindlers who need the ability to be bailed out so they can make risky bets with enormous amounts of borrowed money. Let's put a stop to this, once and for all.

The American government is the world's largest holder of gold. Let's put it to work for us, right away, in the form of sound money.

Finally… we need a logical way to put a stop to the narrowing of the tax base. Everyone who votes should share in the burdens of government – otherwise the incentive will always exist to vote for more government spending.

I suggest a constitutional amendment limiting tax rates and abolishing all taxes except for income tax. Tax every adult under the age of 65 20% of his income – whatever the source. Give everyone a $24,000 annual personal exemption. Above that, everyone pays. No other deductions. We could get rid of the IRS. You could do your taxes on a post card. How much did you make? Send the government 20% of it.

Why do I think 20% is the right rate? The church has always asked for 10%. Surely the government can survive on twice what God needs. And… we should word the constitutional amendment to make clear our intentions: Every U.S. citizen has the right to keep 80% of his income. Let the feds and the states fight over your tax dollars. Remember, your assets and income are part and parcel of your freedom. A man cannot have his liberty without his property and the right to his wages.

By the way, the U.S. Constitution already decrees all citizens should be equal under the law. Making the tax code truly equal will merely be living up to the obligations our Constitution is already placing on the government. Likewise, the Constitution says Congress shall have the right to coin money. It says nothing about printing or the Federal Reserve.

And finally… the founding fathers of our country once rebelled over a 2% tax on sugar, and they expressly forbid income taxes in their Constitution. Can you imagine what they would think of marginal income tax rates in excess of 50% on people in certain states? These new amendments I'm suggesting aren't really new at all: They're simply a return, a restoration, of the real America – the greatest country in history.

If you like these ideas… please share this. I'm sure it would be difficult to get these amendments passed. But if things in America get as bad as I think they're going to, maybe people would be willing to rethink our government's structure.

Sooner or later we have to learn to live within our means. Sooner or later, a preference for sound money will appear because inflation will have destroyed our currency. And sooner or later, the idea that you can live at the expense of your neighbor (through progressive taxation) will lead to a collapse. My preference would be to learn these lessons sooner, so the pain of this transition can be minimized.

I'm interested in organizing a conference about these ideas… maybe call it The Project to Restore America. I'd host it personally (and invest heavily in this effort). I don't know where yet… but I know when – sometime later this year.

My goal will be to get as many well-known people as I can to endorse these ideas and speak about them in public at the conference. I'll try to lure my friends in the media (I have a few) to join with us… plus business leaders… plus regular folks across America.

If we want the government to listen to us… we have to start talking with one, unified and loud voice. I've got a pretty loud microphone here with my publishing company, but I can't do it alone. I need your help. Please pass this around to folks who you think will be willing to read it. And if you want to get involved, please get in touch and tell me how you can help.

If you're interested in these ideas and want to keep up with my efforts, just sign up for a dedicated e-mail list. I'll keep you up to date on what's happening with The Project. And please, get in touch with me if you want to be an active supporter.

Again, please pass this around to folks who you believe would be interested in these ideas and interested in backing The Project to Restore America.

Click here to have your e-mail address added to the list.

(Just to be clear, I will not sell or rent your name to anyone else. And I will only use this list to promote The Project to Restore America.)

More from Porter Stansberry:

Porter Stansberry: Wake up now, before it's too late

Porter Stansberry: You must prepare for a crisis NOW

Porter Stansberry: One of the surest ways to make money this year

Top precious metals analyst: Be careful buying silver today

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 12:06 AM PST

From Pragmatic Capitalism:

Silver has been red hot lately and the silver shares have joined in the fun. Yet, we haven't seen a corresponding breakout in gold or in the gold shares (as evidenced by GDXJ and GDX).

... Silver has been the clear winner as it broke out first while the large and junior silver shares would break out later. Note how gold has yet to break out and how GDXJ and GDX have yet to test recent highs.

We believe the lack of a breakout in gold and the gold shares is a warning sign for silver. Rather than a breakout that initiates an impulsive advance that lasts for months, this breakout in silver could be potentially dangerous for those jumping in at these levels.

Take a look at the historical chart of silver...

Read full article (with chart)...

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Gov't HORROR: Handouts are soaring to unbelievable levels

Posted: 09 Mar 2011 12:05 AM PST

From The Economic Collapse:

The ratio of government handouts to wages and salaries in the United States is now at an all-time high.

According to TrimTabs Investment Research, government handouts have reached a level that is equivalent to 35% of all wages and salaries in the United States. Considering the fact that this figure was only 21% back in the year 2000 and only 10% back in 1960, that is very frightening.

The sad truth is that today the American people are more dependent on direct government payments than they ever have been before. What this does is that it takes formerly independent Americans and transforms them into "sheeple" and pets of the government. Today we have tens of millions of Americans that eagerly await the crumbs that the federal government tosses them each month. This is one reason why our national debt is exploding, but our politicians like this system because...

Read full article...

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ICELAND Gets It

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 10:58 PM PST

Bankers Arrested! If it just weren't so cold, hmmm?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Top-UK...38091.html?x=0

Gold and Oil as Economic Delimiters

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:30 PM PST

Heavy Hitters Talk About The Virtues of Gold

Posted: 08 Mar 2011 08:50 PM PST

The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching