Gold World News Flash |
- The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching
- Evening Thought For The Day
- Lies About Tanzania Don?t Faze Everyone
- Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
- In The News Today
- To all of the good citizens of the world. Greetings. This is an anonymous communiqué from the Silver Liberation Army.
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly
- Wish You Had A Pension?
- No inflation?
- Bifurcation in Precious Metals Complex and the Implications
- Alasdair Macleod: Governments are about to lose control of the markets
- 4 Hour Silver Chart - update 6:15 PM CST
- The Driver for Gold Youre Not Watching
- Ted Butler, silver position limits make Wall Street Journal, thanks to 'Charlie Sheen'
- No Writing Down the Taxpayers Role in the Mortgage Crisis
- Guest Post: The Driver For Gold You’re Not Watching
- The 4th Place Finisher in This Year’s Financial Darwin Awards
- Yen Silver
- As Long As The Gold Price Remains Above $1,415 The Uptrend Abides
- No Writing Down the Taxpayer’s Role in the Mortgage Crisis
- TrimTabs Finds Social Benefits Are Equal To One Third Of All US Wages And Salaries
- Gold is Vulnerable
- Yen Gold making new Lifetime Highs in Price
- Lies About Tanzania Don't Faze Everyone
- The Driver for Gold You're Not Watching
- The Gold Price Driver You're Not Watching
- Gold & Silver Bifurcation
- Bob Quartermain: The Constraints on Silver Supply
- U.S. Dollar Long-term Chart
The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:12 PM PST |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:41 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... March 08, 2011 02:36 PM Dear CIGAs, My take on the gold market is that the price only bounced off the $1444 Angel. Inherently, this market is much stronger than most grasp. The combination of peak oil and the world changing orchestrated uprisings in the Middle East guarantee the gold bull market is going higher for longer than people are willing to predict today. Further, there will be no 1980 collapse as gold becomes fully priced to balance the external debt of the USA. Gold will find its way back into the monetary system attached to an international virtual currency that is not the US dollar. The connection will be via a broad measure of an M3 type world liquidity that is not convertible. Take that concept for now and I will explain the connection mechanism going forward. Ounces and production will flatten the egomaniac short sellers in the juniors. You can take that to your private bank, you acting as your own Federal Reserve. Respe... |
Lies About Tanzania Don?t Faze Everyone Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:41 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... March 08, 2011 02:35 PM Dear CIGAs, Dirty tricks (false stories about Tanzania) do not work on Barrick. African Barrick, listed in London, today announced their application to be listed on the Dar es Salaam exchange. African Barrick Gold Eyes Golden Ridge As Satellite To Buzwagi Tue Mar 08 12:26:01 2011 EST By Alex MacDonald Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Anglo-Tanzanian miner African Barrick Gold PLC (ABG.LN) plans to develop its Golden Ridge project in Tanzania as a satellite to its existing Buzwagi gold mine from 2013, the company’s chief executive said Tuesday. Greg Hawkins told Dow Jones Newswires that African Barrick Gold plans to mine and truck ore from Golden Ridge to Buzwagi in order to counteract and boost production at the Buzwagi mine as ore grades begin to decline from 2013 onwards. African Barrick Gold expects to produce 50,000 troy ounces of gold annually from the Gold Ridge project... |
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:41 PM PST |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:41 PM PST View the original post at jsmineset.com... March 08, 2011 02:11 PM Jim Sinclair's Commentary There is much further to go and much life left in this gold market. Monty Guild's Commentary This and other reasons amplify and solidify my call for $150+ oil in 2011. Bahrain and the Battle Between Iran and Saudi Arabia By George Friedman The world's attention is focused on Libya, which is now in a state of civil war with the winner far from clear. While crucial for the Libyan people and of some significance to the world?s oil markets, in our view, Libya is not the most important event in the Arab world at the moment. Thedemonstrations in Bahrain are, in my view, far more significant in their implications for the region and potentially for the world. To understand this, we must place it in a strategic context. As STRATFOR has been saying for quite a while, a decisive moment is approaching, with the United States currently slated to withdraw the last of its forces from Iraq by th... |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:50 PM PST |
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:00 PM PST Gold fell $8.22 to $1425.78 in Asia and rose $2.74 to $1436.74 in London before it fell back to $1423.00 by midmorning New York and then bounced back higher in late trade, but it still ended with a loss of 0.48%. Silver fell $0.41 to $35.49 in Asia before it rebounded to $36.515 in London, but it then fell back off in New York and ended with a loss of 0.36%. |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 03:54 PM PST Ashlea Ebeling of Forbes asks, Wish You Had A Pension?:
Consider yourself lucky if you have any pension at all. But while some are calling for the "death of pensions," I see pensions making a comeback in the future. There will be a political push to find an affordable and practical solution to the ongoing retirement crisis, and I think it's premature to call for the end of DB plans. In fact, smart companies will be looking at ways to attract workers by provided them with a solid DB pension plan. On this last point, Dean Baker, the economist who predicted the US housing crash long before everyone else, posted a nice piece on Monday, Public Pensions 101:
I don't agree with that last point and have discussed my views in an earlier post, The Blame Game. But there is a movement to weaken or eliminate public pensions and it's quite disconcerting. We need reforms but we don't need fear mongering and policies that make no economic sense for the long-term health of our retirement system. On that point, I completely agree with Dean Baker. Millions of people only wish they had a pension. Now is not the time to attack those that do have one. |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 03:16 PM PST Hmmmm....this week is going to be a light posting week for me. I moved apartments and I'll be skiing Wednesday. I wanted to mention that a continual source of irritation for me is the pervasive commentary and economic analysis pointing to a strengthening economy based on an improving job market, higher wages and low inflation. What planet are these people from? Every labor market-related headline data is based on heavily manipulated, faulty data. All you have to do is read through the details and footnotes of the reports to see that. If the labor market is improving, how come the long term jobless benefits number AND the number of people on food stamps increases nearly every week? And how about inflation. I just paid $3.45/gallon for gasoline. In late November I was paying 2.80 for the same octane from the same gas station. That's a 23% increase. Fortunately for me my gasoline expenditure is not yet a meaningful portion of my weekly income. But for many millions in this country it is. And it's not just gasoline. All of my utility plus cable bills are increasing and so is my weekly food tab. All you have to do is look at any commodities index chart to see that inflation is accelerating. Ditto for the comments coming from any company that produces human necessities. All of these so-called economic and Wall Street experts have to either be complete idiots or psychopathic liars to not see the accelerating trend in price inflation. And one of the biggest sources of inflation is the inflation of the Government spending deficit: The federal government posted its largest monthly deficit in history in February, a $223 billion shortfall. Here's the article, which was reported by several media sources: LINK Despite the rhetoric, the Obama Government will continue the growth of deficit spending and the growth in outstanding Treasury debt. It is true that drastic cuts in spending will hurl our system into a nasty economic contraction. But the alternative will make the eventual and inevitable economic bust even worse. The dollar will collapse and everyone holding only paper currency will be pauperized (is that word? lol). One of my best friends in NYC called me today asking for the best source to buy silver from. I sent him to Tulving and told him to put as much as he can into silver and gold. All of the major coin dealers are running thin on sovereign-minted silver coins and soon the premiums will be even higher. I tried to convince him to cash out of some of his IRA and buy even more metal, but he can't get his mind around the idea of paying the penalty and taxes. Of course, the alternative will be a mandatory force-feeding of Treasury annuities by the Government, which will eventually seize everyone's retirement plans and exchange the assets for worthless Government paper (not mine, I cashed out of mine slowly over the past 5 years and moved most of it into gold and silver that is held outside of the system). Hopefully over the next several months I'll be able to convince my friend to start converting his IRAs into gold/silver. In nearly 10 years of doing exclusively this sector, I've never seen gold/silver remain so resilient to the constant attacks of the big bank bullion cartels. Having traded all aspects of this sector during this time, it makes it difficult to not take profits and wait for a pullback, but we don't even have stops on our positions right now because all that will accomplish is to get stopped out by the volatility and then be left contemplating chasing the price higher in order to re-enter positions. We are daytrading the volatility and making some nice trading profits, but we put everything back in place before the market closes each day. My best advice for playing this market if you are unable to spend time trading it is to put on a thick pair of blinders and hold on tight! |
Bifurcation in Precious Metals Complex and the Implications Posted: 08 Mar 2011 01:10 PM PST 03/08/2011 By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT Silver has been red hot lately and the silver shares have joined in the fun. Yet, we haven’t seen a corresponding breakout in Gold or in the gold shares (as evidenced by GDXJ and GDX). In the chart below we show SIL (large silver stocks), Silver, Gold, GDXJ (gold juniors) and GDX (large cap golds). Silver has been the clear winner as it broke out first while the large and junior silver shares would breakout later. Note how Gold has yet to breakout and how GDXJ and GDX have yet to test recent highs. We believe the lack of a breakout in Gold and the gold shares is a warning sign for Silver. Rather than a breakout that initiates an impulsive advance that lasts for months, this breakout in Silver could be potentially dangerous for those jumping in at these levels. Take a look at the historical chart of Silver. The advance past $22 and $25/o... |
Alasdair Macleod: Governments are about to lose control of the markets Posted: 08 Mar 2011 12:09 PM PST 8:08p ET Tuesday, March 8, 2011 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Inflation is about to cause governments to lose control of the markets, economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod contends in his new commentary this week. Macleod writes: "The effect on asset prices will be dramatic, and share and bond markets, currently reflecting zero interest rates, are likely to be badly hit. Property is similarly vulnerable, with the end of any pretence that overleveraged homeowners can afford their mortgages and commercial property tenants their rents. Values for collateral held by the banks against their loan books will therefore be further undermined, putting into doubt the banking system's survival." Macleod's commentary is headlined "Governments Are About to Lose Control of the Markets" and you can find it at his Internet site, Finance and Economics, here: http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.03.07%20Crunc... CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture: Company Press Release, January 18, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy. PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding. Following the transaction: -- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC. -- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis. -- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp. -- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings. Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000. For the complete announcement, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf |
4 Hour Silver Chart - update 6:15 PM CST Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:50 AM PST |
The Driver for Gold Youre Not Watching Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:45 AM PST Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance – many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you’ve got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future. All of these factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold’s 450% rise over the past 10 years. No, it’s not too late to buy, especially if you don’t own a meaningful amount; and yes, I’m convinced the price is headed much higher, regardless of the corrections we’ll inevitably see. Each of the aforementioned catalysts will force gold’s price higher and higher in the years ahead, especially the currency issues. But there’s another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media. And I’m convinced that once this sleeping giant w... |
Ted Butler, silver position limits make Wall Street Journal, thanks to 'Charlie Sheen' Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:29 AM PST 'Charlie Sheen': Secret Silver Investor? By Katy Burne http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/03/08/charlie-sheen-secret-silver-invest... Charlie Sheen loves tiger blood, machetes, and goddesses. But is he also a closet commodities fan? A person writing under the name "Charlie Sheen," the disgraced sitcom actor, filed a comment with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week, and he recommended that the agency adopt more conservative position limits on derivatives tied to silver. Market participants were buzzing about the appearance of Sheen's name in the otherwise low-gloss world of commodities. (It's not as though silver bugs, already a crew prone to conspiracy theories about speculators and market manipulation, needed more reasons to worry.) CFTC spokesman Dennis Holden was unable to confirm that the March 1 filing was posted under a bogus name. The letter attributed to Charlie Sheen was erased from the agency's archives on Tuesday following inquiries from Dow Jones Newswires. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture: Company Press Release, January 18, 2011 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy. PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding. Following the transaction: -- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC. -- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis. -- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp. -- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings. Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000. For the complete announcement, please visit: http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php An identical memo was posted under the name of David J. Dunak, a self-described silver investor, on Feb. 24. In an interview on Tuesday, Dunak said he took cues for his wording from precious metals commentator Ted Butler. Other comments on the CFTC website also contain language that mirrors Butler's online commentary. It's possible other silver investors also picked up similar language from Butler -- even a sitcom star recently fired from his day job, or stand-ins for Sheen. On the website SilverSeek.com, Butler invites readers to "rattle on the cages" of the CFTC, among others, and lists the email addresses of CFTC staffers "for those who wish to contact the regulators." He provides a separate sample letter for regulators on the website of Investment Rarities Incorporated. An email to Butler Research LLC, Butler's publishing company, was not immediately returned Tuesday. Representatives at CBS, the network airing Sheen's former sitcom "Two and a Half Men," didn't immediately return requests for comment. Sheen couldn't be reached. Dunak said he had no knowledge of the Sheen memo. "I don't assume any other identities," Dunak said. "I never have." In "Charlie Sheen's" March 1 memo, the writer asks the CFTC to re-adjust its proposed position limits in silver. "Sheen" says that the "current formula would result in a position limit of over 5,000 contracts for any single speculator." The memo writer said that limit is equivalent to 25 million ounces of silver. Only three mining companies worldwide produce that much silver each year. It turns out that even real silver experts agree with "Charlie Sheen." Critics of the CFTC's proposed rules have called for a revised cap of 1,500 contracts or fewer to prevent market manipulation in silver. If Charlie Sheen, Martin Sheen, or any other actors want to weigh in on the CFTC proposed rules, the agency's website is accepting comments through March 28. Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16 ADVERTISEMENT Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property Company Press Release, October 27, 2010 VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include: -- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres. -- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres. -- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre. Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest." For the company's full press release, please visit: http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf |
No Writing Down the Taxpayers Role in the Mortgage Crisis Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:24 AM PST Whenever I am confronted with some new monetary or fiscal outrage, I go through the 5 Stages of Shock, namely starting with Denial ("Nobody is that stupid!") Then I quickly move to the Anger ("Those bastards!") stage, followed by Fear ("We're Freaking Doomed") and Bargaining ("I'll use my votes for the persons who are as against this outrage as I am, and who campaign on a platform of tracking down the banker and neo-Keynesian economist trash that did this to us, and put them in jail so that I won't have to personally get up off my fat, lazy butt to rise up and lead a popular rebellion to abolish the Federal Reserve, put the United States back on a gold standard and re-establish the Glass-Steagel separation of banking from investing"). Finally, the 5th stage is Acceptance ("Alas, there's nothing I can do, except to scream in outrage about the satanic Federal Reserve until I die, and then I can come back from the dead as some malevolent demon from hell to haunt them all, and vex their ... |
Guest Post: The Driver For Gold You’re Not Watching Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:19 AM PST Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance – many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you’ve got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future. All of these factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold’s 450% rise over the past 10 years. No, it’s not too late to buy, especially if you don’t own a meaningful amount; and yes, I’m convinced the price is headed much higher, regardless of the corrections we’ll inevitably see. Each of the aforementioned catalysts will force gold’s price higher and higher in the years ahead, especially the currency issues. But there’s another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media. And I’m convinced that once this sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we’ve ever seen. The fund management industry handles the bulk of the world’s wealth. These institutions include insurance companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. But the elephant in the room is pension funds. These are institutions that provide retirement income, both public and private. Global pension assets are estimated to be – drum roll, please – $31.1 trillion. No, that is not a misprint. It is more than twice the size of last year’s GDP in the U.S. ($14.7 trillion). We know a few hedge fund managers have invested in gold, like John Paulson, David Einhorn, Jean-Marie Eveillard. There are close to twenty mutual funds devoted to gold and precious metals. Lots of gold and silver bugs have been buying. So, what about pension funds? According to estimates by Shayne McGuire in his new book, Hard Money; Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level, the typical pension fund holds about 0.15% of its assets in gold. He estimates another 0.15% is devoted to gold mining stocks, giving us a total of 0.30% – that is, less than one third of one percent of assets committed to the gold sector. Shayne is head of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He bases his estimate on the fact that commodities represent about 3% of the total assets in the average pension fund. And of that 3%, about 5% is devoted to gold. It is, by any account, a negligible portion of a fund’s asset allocation. Now here’s the fun part. Let’s say fund managers as a group realize that bonds, equities, and real estate have become poor or risky investments and so decide to increase their allocation to the gold market. If they doubled their exposure to gold and gold stocks – which would still represent only 0.6% of their total assets – it would amount to $93.3 billion in new purchases. How much is that? The assets of GLD total $55.2 billion, so this amount of money is 1.7 times bigger than the largest gold ETF. SLV, the largest silver ETF, has net assets of $9.3 billion, a mere one-tenth of that extra allocation. The market cap of the entire sector of gold stocks (producers only) is about $234 billion. The gold industry would see a 40% increase in new money to the sector. Its market cap would double if pension institutions allocated just 1.2% of their assets to it. But what if currency issues spiral out of control? What if bonds wither and die? What if real estate takes ten years to recover? What if inflation becomes a rabid dog like it has every other time in history when governments have diluted their currency to this degree? If these funds allocate just 5% of their assets to gold – which would amount to $1.5 trillion – it would overwhelm the system and rocket prices skyward. And let’s not forget that this is only one class of institution. Insurance companies have about $18.7 trillion in assets. Hedge funds manage approximately $1.7 trillion. Sovereign wealth funds control $3.8 trillion. Then there are mutual funds, ETFs, private equity funds, and private wealth funds. Throw in millions of retail investors like you and me and Joe Sixpack and Jiao Sixpack, and we’re looking in the rear view mirror at $100 trillion. I don’t know if pension funds will devote that much money to this sector or not. What I do know is that sovereign debt risks are far from over, the U.S. dollar and other currencies will lose considerably more value against gold, interest rates will most certainly rise in the years ahead, and inflation is just getting started. These forces are in place and building, and if there’s a paradigm shift in how these managers view gold, look out! I thought of titling this piece, “Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low.” Because once fund managers enter the gold market in mass, this tiny sector will light on fire with blazing speed. My advice is to not just hope you can jump in once these drivers hit the gas, but to claim your seat during the relative calm of this month's level prices. |
The 4th Place Finisher in This Year’s Financial Darwin Awards Posted: 08 Mar 2011 11:12 AM PST Stocks are up. Stocks are down. The same goes, naturally, for the broader indexes that house them. Yesterday, for example, the Dow fell about 80 points. Today, last we checked, it was up almost as much. Over the past five days, it's firmer by 95 points. But on the month, it's lower by 80. And, by the time the bell rings this afternoon, all those numbers will have changed. What to make of it? As a general rule, we don't pay much attention to the minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour market moves that saturate the mainstream media. Why would we? We're not trying to identify the specific cause of a single-day, fraction-of-a-percent move in a multi- trillion dollar market. For one, it's a fool's errand. The market is driven by hundreds of millions of individual human actions and emotions – some rational, others irrational. There's no way of knowing with certainty what the next hour, day or maybe even month will bring. If we could know – if anyone could know – for sure, we'd be on a tropical island somewhere, minding our own business and keeping our secret to ourselves. But if we had to guess, we'd say, on the whole – that is, over the long run – that the bull market we've seen run since the crash of 2008 is closer to its end than its beginning. A quick look back… Remember, we had the crack-up boom of the late '90s, which spilled plentifully into the early naughties. After a brief, mini-recession of 2001-02, it was full steam (and full credit) ahead…to the bust-up of 2008. Stocks – following houses and the banks that stood behind them – fell deeper and harder than all but a few fringe-dwelling contrarians had anticipated. Wall Street institutions – stalwarts that had weathered the First Great Depression, a couple of World Wars, the stagflation of the '70s and the crash of '87 – fell to their knees, were broken up or forced to marry equally distressed partners. Millions of employees fell out of work. Many of their jobs are gone…for good. That, in a nutshell, was the first phase in what we see as a bigger, ongoing correction, one that could last for decades and reshape the world. Bill Bonner calls it the "Great Correction." Doug Casey, perennial Vancouver favorite from whom we'll hear more below, refers to it as the beginning of the "Greater Depression." Even the rosiest outlook calls for a fundamental paradigm shift in the way the world economy operates. China is due to overtake the US as the world's largest market sometime in the 2030s. Then, barely two decades later, India will overtake China. We don't know that these things will happen, of course. They're just guesses, based mostly on inklings, feelings and hunches. (And some rather compelling demographic data. But that's a story for another day…) Were the bust of '08 allowed to keep on busting, as it seemed determined to do, we might now have bottomed out and, with any luck, found ourselves ready to begin along a real road to a feasible recovery. In other words, we might have begun the long, hard slog back to sustainable economic expansion. But instead of exercising even a single degree of restraint, the Feds did what the Feds do best; that is, they made things worse. It is almost impossible to know exactly how much money has been poured into the fight against the forces of economic nature. We've seen figures of 10…12…even 14 trillion dollars in total. Between the Fed's many and varied programs – from its Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility to currency swaps, GSE debt purchases and various bank bailouts – to the Treasury's own shenanigans – $700 billion for TARP, stimulus I and II, endless support for Fannie and Freddie – it's easy to get lost in the paperwork. And that's to say nothing of the FDICs ongoing obligations and other assorted boondoggles, like President Obama's $300 billion "Hope for Homeowners" sinkhole. The national debt, which stood at "only" $5.7 trillion dollars around the turn of the century, or $55,000 per taxpayer, is now on track to surpass $22 trillion, $186,000 per taxpayer, by 2015. State debt has risen from $750 billion to $1.16 trillion since 2000. And, it's worth mentioning, those numbers do not include unfunded liabilities which, although brushed aside in the past, become ever more important with every retiring worker. This year, 44 states are expected to register budget shortfalls. The total budget "gap" for fiscal year 2012 comes in around $125 billion. California owns the lion's share, with $25.4 billion to fill, more than seven times Wisconsin's shortfall. Illinois comes in next with a $15 billion shortfall, followed by Texas with $13.4 billion, New Jersey at $10.5 billion and New York at $9 billion. But these numbers mean nothing. Not to the average man on the street, anyway. You could beat him over the head with 1s, 7s and 5s all day long and he'd scarcely feel a thing. He doesn't understand that, no matter how much he wants healthcare for everyone, turkeys in every oven and American-made muscle cars in every garage, there simply isn't any money left to pay for them. The states are broke. Broke as in "B-R-O-K-E" broke. Which brings us to our second Daily Reckoning Financial Darwin Award announcement for the week. Over the weekend we narrowed the field to ten finalists (in alphabetical order) – California, Connecticut, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Wisconsin. Yesterday, we awarded 5th place to Connecticut. Today we have fourth place honors for a state whose unions, perhaps the most renowned in the country, work tirelessly to retard the economic progress of its otherwise hard working citizens. Although this state has a slightly lower debt to GDP ratio than 5th place, its projected 2012 budget shortfall, at $10.8 billion, is more than three times as large, making it a much larger problem for the nation if or when it goes down. It's also managed to stack up some $54.4 billion in unfunded pension liabilities not to mention billions more in healthcare and "other" unfunded obligations. In fact, it was concerns over these very liabilities that Standard & Poor's cited when they downgraded this state's credit rating earlier this year. And, as Fellow Reckoners well know, if the ratings agencies are on to you…it's probably already too late. How did they get to this point? Writes one reader, with a clue, "I asked a turnpike toll collector what he makes after hearing the waste of money in this state and was told very proudly that he makes $76,000! That [job] is no better than a cashier and that's not including benefits he receives. No wonder that the Christi administration is looking to privatize it." Congratulations…New Jersey! You receive 4th place honors in this year's Daily Reckoning Financial Darwin Awards: The State Edition. In tomorrow's issue, we'll have the first of our two runners- up…followed by the big winner, to be announced Friday. Stay tuned. Joel Bowman The 4th Place Finisher in This Year's Financial Darwin Awards originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation. |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 10:50 AM PST |
As Long As The Gold Price Remains Above $1,415 The Uptrend Abides Posted: 08 Mar 2011 10:36 AM PST Gold Price Close Today : 1426.90 Change : (7.20) or -0.5% Silver Price Close Today : 35.653 Change : (0.202) cents or -0.6% Gold Silver Ratio Today : 40.02 Change : 0.025 or 0.1% Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02499 Change : -0.000015 or -0.1% Platinum Price Close Today : 1806.00 Change : -12.80 or -0.7% Palladium Price Close Today : 791.00 Change : 2.35 or 0.3% S&P 500 : 1,321.82 Change : 11.69 or 0.9% Dow In GOLD$ : $176.95 Change : $ 2.70 or 1.5% Dow in GOLD oz : 8.560 Change : 0.131 or 1.5% Dow in SILVER oz : 342.59 Change : 3.51 or 1.0% Dow Industrial : 12,214.38 Change : 124.35 or 1.0% US Dollar Index : 76.80 Change : 0.299 or 0.4% The GOLD PRICE lost $7.20 to close Comex at $1,426.90. As long as gold remains above $1,422.60, maybe $1,415 in a pinch, no damage has been done and the trend remains higher. If somebody is looking for terminal damage to the silver and gold market, he'd better look someplace other than today's trading. Today's low came at $1,424, so $1,425 becomes the new support. As long as the GOLD PRICE remains above $1,415, though, the uptrend abides. The SILVER PRICE remained astonishingly stubborn today, yielding overnight to 3550c but counter- attacking to 3650c right before Ney York opened. In New York hostile forces backed silver to 3565c by 10:00, but silver refused to be pushed any further. By 2:30 it has climbed above 3580c, had closed Comex down only 20.2c at 3565.3c. As long as the SILVER PRICE stays above 3500c it will keep on rallying. Friends, I am non-plussed, baffled, bumfuzzled, and bewildered. When a market climbs as fast as silver has, and as straight, you must simply step out of its way. It has already climbed 38% above its January 2638c intraday low. You can start picking numbers to please yourself from here, and guess as wildly as you want. A 50% move up would take silver to 3957c. It's as overbought as it ever gets, but it can stay overbought for a lot longer time. We're long silver, so don't worry about it. After all this turmoil ends, and silver corrects, it will yet climb higher and higher, because silver's bull has yet several years to run. So I'm just going to enjoy the ride. Y'all asked me what states had pending bills about making silver and gold alternative monies to Federal Reserve notes (green paper money): Colorado Georgia Idaho Indiana Missouri Montana New Hampshire South Carolina Tennessee Utah Washington Another error to correct: I have been forgetting to update the prices of silver dollars on my daily commentary. Their price tends to be "sticky," that is, they fall and rise slower than spot silver. More than that, they carry a huge premium so we don't discourage people from buying them. Usually the older type, pre-1905 Morgan's, carry a dollar or so premium to the others, but today the pre-1905 Morgans, 1921 Morgans, and Peace dollars are all trading at $32 each wholesale ($32/0.765 oz = $41.83/oz). I'll try to remember to keep them updated. News is so wearing and so bogus. Today the mobs performed an about-face and raced into the US dollar, out of the Euro, into stocks and out of silver and gold, all on the latest "news" that G/Gh/Qaddifi will/will not leave Libya. I think they ought to forget about Muamar and get busy importing brigades of spelling reformers. Any country that can't spell their generalissimo's last name the same way twice suffers from colossal orthographic abuse. LO! The US DOLLAR INDEX behaved today exactly as I might have prescribed to stage a believable reversal. Yesterday it sketched out a V-bottom at 76.15, probed through the area above the V, (76.40-76.50), then shot skyward to a high of 76.979 today, then backed off to 76.80 - 76.70. Now trading at 76.795, up 29.9 basis points. Tomorrow (preferably) or the next day it must climb through 77 to prove itself. The euro had reached its 200 Day Moving Average (1.3958) yesterday, and today reversed and closed 1.3903, down 0.59%. It's too early to call this an upward dollar reversal, but it's a good, clean start. All the stock cheerleaders were wearing out their megaphones and saddle oxfords today just a-cheering and a-cheering for the great rise in stocks. Ahh, but we suspicious ones know to look closer, don't we? Dow rose 124.35 points to 12,214.38, but y'all remember that this constitutes no more than a near-return to the 50% correction point. Returning is not the goal: surpassing is the goal, and today the Dow didn't. Wherefore, our suspicion breed, boils, and broods, suspecting that more disappointments await stock investors. (S&P500 rose 11.69 to 1,321.82). Best you can say for stocks is that the Dow closed above its 20 DMA today, now at 12,204.37. MACD might (might) be turning up, RSI is neutral to high. Okay, so say I'm wrong, and stocks move to a higher altitude. What then? Will I throw ashes on my head and dress in gunny sacks and sit in the chimney corner pulling my beard out? Not hardly, because it will only mean that stocks are about to make a double top with ca. 12,400. I'm warning y'all, stocks are the cheap chicom hand grenades in the Investment Arsenal, and they're liable to blow up on you soon as you pull the pin. Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought. - Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger The-MoneyChanger.com Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066 © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't. |
No Writing Down the Taxpayer’s Role in the Mortgage Crisis Posted: 08 Mar 2011 10:00 AM PST Whenever I am confronted with some new monetary or fiscal outrage, I go through the 5 Stages of Shock, namely starting with Denial ("Nobody is that stupid!") Then I quickly move to the Anger ("Those bastards!") stage, followed by Fear ("We're Freaking Doomed") and Bargaining ("I'll use my votes for the persons who are as against this outrage as I am, and who campaign on a platform of tracking down the banker and neo-Keynesian economist trash that did this to us, and put them in jail so that I won't have to personally get up off my fat, lazy butt to rise up and lead a popular rebellion to abolish the Federal Reserve, put the United States back on a gold standard and re-establish the Glass-Steagel separation of banking from investing"). Finally, the 5th stage is Acceptance ("Alas, there's nothing I can do, except to scream in outrage about the satanic Federal Reserve until I die, and then I can come back from the dead as some malevolent demon from hell to haunt them all, and vex their descendents with spooky crap all the time so that they never get any sleep, their children grow up weird and everybody ends up being crazy and locked away someplace"). But no matter which stage I am in, or what it is about, I have consistently warned that there is no government outrage so great that the government will not do something even more outrageous. Sure enough, on the front page of The Wall Street Journal was the headline "Mortgage Deal Takes Shape," which is the most socialist, communist piece of lowlife crap that the government ever undertook (so far), which is that the government wants mortgage servicers to "reduce the loan balances of troubled borrowers who owe more than their homes are worth." No sooner had you clasped your hands to your chest as sudden shooting pains radiate down your left arm and your heart is going "boom boom boom" at this unbelievable crap than it was immediately followed by, "The cost of those writedowns won't be borne by investors who purchased mortgage-backed securities." "Well," you have to ask yourself, "If they won't have to eat the losses, who will?" The Wall Street Journal said that the losses will be borne by the banks, as a result of the new, raw extortion of "some state attorneys general and federal agencies are pushing for banks to pay more than $20 billion in civil fines or to fund a comparable amount of loan modifications for distressed borrowers." Interestingly, anyone classified as a mortgage servicer who "mishandled foreclosure procedures" will have to "eat losses" by writing down loans, too, for any loans that they "service on behalf of clients," which turns out to be – surprise! – "Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, as well as investors in loans that were securitized by Wall Street firms." I say that the answer to the question, "Who will pay for all these reductions in mortgages?" is that everyone will. Losses are always ultimately passed along to customers in the form of higher prices, and passed along to the taxpayers, too, in the form of losses being expenses, and are thus deductions from taxable income. Apparently, I have my head up my bazoo, as The Wall Street Journal says that banks and mortgage servicers will be required to literally operate at a loss, as "under the administration's proposed settlement, banks would have to bear the cost of all writedowns rather than passing them on to other investors." Hahaha! Of course, I figure that this is just more of the staggering, suicidal stupidity that is so rampant in the world today, and thus another reason to buy gold, silver and oil stocks in pure self-defense. And with the guaranteed inflationary horror and economic collapse inherent in the Federal Reserve creating more than a trillion dollars a year in new money so that the federal government can increase the national debt by an estimated $2 trillion in that selfsame One Freaking Year (OFY), the decision to buy gold, silver and oil is such a no-brainer that you can't stop yourself thinking, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!" The Mogambo Guru No Writing Down the Taxpayer's Role in the Mortgage Crisis originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation. |
TrimTabs Finds Social Benefits Are Equal To One Third Of All US Wages And Salaries Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:47 AM PST After yesterday TrimTabs Charles Biderman made it all too clear who runs the stock market, today the same firm exposes the system's dirty socialist core: "In a research note, TrimTabs highlights that government social benefits —including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and unemployment insurance—were equal to 35% of all private and public wages and salaries in the 12 months ended January, up from 10% in 1960 and 21% in 2000. “We have no quibble with the view that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace,” says Madeline Schnapp, Director of Macroeconomic Research at TrimTabs. “But we believe Wall Street does not fully appreciate the degree to which growth depends on government support.” Schanpp's conclusion: QE3 is inevitable, leaving aside debt monetization concerns, as without it the US welfare state will collapse. DXY: meet 50, just in time for the NYSE Borse to extends its rollup with the Zimbaber stock exchange. More from TrimTabs:
One thing is certain: socialist status quo under Uber-Comrade Iossif Vissarionovich Bernankestein must continue as usual, or else US will no longer be able to say it is not Libya. |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:42 AM PST courtesy of DailyFX.com March 08, 2011 07:37 AM 60 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele I wrote Friday that “the short term count makes the case for one more high before a more important top registers. Gold has pulled back from a record high but focus remains the next big round figure at 1500. Keep an eye on weekly resistance lines as well (there are 2 lines – one extended from the December 2009 and December 2010 highs and one extended from the May 2010 and December 2010 highs).” The new high has registered, therefore the probability of a drop to 1410.60 and then 1392.20 has increased.... |
Yen Gold making new Lifetime Highs in Price Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:42 AM PST I think it is important to regularly remind the readers that most of the bearish analysis on gold comes from those whose only concern is its US Dollar price. This betrays a rather shallow understanding of the role of gold in the global economy and particularly its role as a currency. As a trader I have to focus on the US Dollar price since that is what I am trading but as an investor with a longer term horizon, one must look at how gold is doing in terms of the world's major currencies. I might add that even as a trader, regularly looks at these charts of gold in other currency terms can at times give one a better glimpse into the dynamics in the gold market. For instance, while there might be some weakness in US Dollar priced gold, it is very risky attempting to short such a market if its Euro-priced or Yen-priced counterpart is making new highs or is very strong on the price charts. The reasons for the strength in Yen gold are listed on the chart below. It is the same reason that... |
Lies About Tanzania Don't Faze Everyone Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:35 AM PST Dear CIGAs, Dirty tricks (false stories about Tanzania) do not work on Barrick. African Barrick, listed in London, today announced their application to be listed on the Dar es Salaam exchange. African Barrick Gold Eyes Golden Ridge As Satellite To Buzwagi LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Anglo-Tanzanian miner African Barrick Gold PLC (ABG.LN) plans to develop its Golden Ridge project in Tanzania as a satellite to its existing Buzwagi gold mine from 2013, the company's chief executive said Tuesday. Greg Hawkins told Dow Jones Newswires that African Barrick Gold plans to mine and truck ore from Golden Ridge to Buzwagi in order to counteract and boost production at the Buzwagi mine as ore grades begin to decline from 2013 onwards. African Barrick Gold expects to produce 50,000 troy ounces of gold annually from the Gold Ridge project, making it a key component of the company's growth strategy to increase production by 40% by 2014. The mining company, whose parent is Canadian mining company Barrick Gold Corp (ABX), previously said it is targeting gold production of one million troy ounces by 2014, up from around 700,000 ounces, via brownfield and greenfield expansions. It also expects to pursue production growth through mergers and acquisitions. "Last year we outlined four projects that represented strong organic growth. Golden Ridge was one of those projects," he said. The projects include an underground mine at North Mara, life extension at the Tulawaka mine and rehabilitating access to the Upper East Zone of the Bulyanhulu mine. Each of these projects is expected to add about 50,000 ounces of additional gold output, Hawkins said. Aside from organic-growth plans, African Barrick Gold also plans to use its $400 million cash war chest to diversify its geographic reach beyond Tanzania, Hawkins said. "We're going to be [in Tanzania] for a long time but we also see a strategic need to diversify," he said. The company has looked at a dozen potential transactions already, half of which resulted in a closer investigation, Hawkins said. The company is interested in assets in northeast Africa and West Africa. Assets in northeast Africa are located primarily in Eritrea and Ethiopia and, to a lesser extent, in Egypt. Egypt is "probably not our favored destination even before" the unrest, Hawkins said, referring to the popular uprising that led to the ouster of its long-time president Hosni Mubarak. In West Africa, the company is interested in locations such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Senegal, Hawkins said. He acknowledged that gold-asset valuations are pricey at the moment. "We have to exercise a bit of patience," in order to find the asset that is right for the company, he said. |
The Driver for Gold You're Not Watching Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:25 AM PST |
The Gold Price Driver You're Not Watching Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:21 AM PST Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, BIG GOLD writes: You already know the basic reasons for owning gold - currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance - many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you've got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future. |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:11 AM PST |
Bob Quartermain: The Constraints on Silver Supply Posted: 08 Mar 2011 09:07 AM PST |
Posted: 08 Mar 2011 08:53 AM PST The weakness with this US Dollar DX index is that it is highly weighted to the developed economies of Europe and Japan. As such it may not reflect erosion of dollar purchasing power vis a vis the BRICs, and external measures such as gold, oil, and silver. It may be masked by the mutual weakness of central banks all inflating their currencies in unison. |
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