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Saturday, March 12, 2011

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Japan Nuclear Plant Conditions Worsening, local media reports

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 06:31 PM PST

The Kyodo news agency says the cooling system has failed at three reactors at a nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture in northeastern Japan and that the coolant water's temperature has reached boiling level.


Conditions appear to be worsening at a nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture in northeastern Japan, according to local media.

The Kyodo news agency reported that the cooling system has failed at three reactors of Fukushima No. 2 nuclear power plant. The coolant water's temperature had reached boiling temperature, the agency reported, citing the power plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power.

The cooling system failure at the No. 2 power plant came after officials were already troubled by the failure of the emergency cooling system at the Fukushima No. 1 plant, which officials feared could cause a meltdown.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Mixed on the Week

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 04:00 PM PST

Gold rose $6.14 to $1419.04 in Asia before it fell to see a $8.25 loss at $1404.65 in London, but it then rose to a new session high of $1422.65 by midday in New York and ended with a gain of 0.57%. Silver climbed to $35.36 in Asia and fell to $34.04 in London before it also rallied back higher in New York and ended near its late session high of $35.99 with a gain of 1.93%.


Peter King is a disgusting 9/11 cry-baby that needs to get a real job or go after Wall St. terrorists

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 03:55 PM PST

MK: Peter King, the guy in D.C. who is hysterically picking on Muslims this week completely misses the point about 9/11. When you aspire to rule the world with the world's reserve currency and a multi-trillion dollar military budget (with hundreds of military bases around the globe), you are gonna get tagged every now and [...]


Richard Russell: Gold is the Safest Currency

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:46 PM PST

http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/richard-russell-gold-safest-currency&ppref=TBP207ED0311C


The Commodity Price Rollercoaster and the CRB Golden Ratio Failure

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:45 PM PST

Commodity prices have been on a rollercoaster ride as central banks have pumped trillions in liquidity into the global system, trying to prevent a deflationary long wave debt collapse from delivering the economic coup de gras ... Read More...



A Comeback for Gold-Backed Money?

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:44 PM PST

http://caseyresearch.com/editorial.php?page=articles/comeback-gold-backed-money&ppref=TBP207ED0311B No one can predict exactly how this will all shake out, but Doug Casey has long said that a return to a gold standard, or some modern equivalent, is almost inevitable. That's because, for the reasons Aristotle outlined 2,000 years ago (it's durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and has intrinsic value), gold is hands-down the [...]


Jim Interviewed By King World News

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:25 PM PST

Dear CIGAs,

Eric King of King World News was kind enough to interview me on today's gold market action. Please click the link below to listen to the interview.

Click here to listen to today's interview…


” Way back in 2002, my target for silver was $187.50 an ounce.”

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:16 PM PST

The Most Important Silver News in Nearly 30 Years Share this:


Risk and the Dollar Carry Trade

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 02:06 PM PST

Civil war unleashed in Libya, protests turn violent in Saudi Arabia, and deep social unrest throughout much of the Middle East. And today Japan is hit by its worst earthquake in 140 years. Here at home, ugly twin deficit news ... Read More...



The Gold Standard 2.0 is Coming

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 01:09 PM PST


 

The world is on its way to a Gold standard again.

 

This is not mere conjecture or prediction. It’s fact. Utah has already passed a bill allowing Gold and Silver to be used as legal tender. Similarly, Virginia has passed legislation (though the Governor has yet to sign the bill) that would permit the state to mint its own Gold and Silver coins.

 

You can see this on the international stage as well. China’s Gold demand rose 500% last year. And world central banks became net buyers of Gold for the first time in 2010 as well.

 

These are of course baby steps. China and all central banks’ reserves are only minimally invested in Gold at this time. However, these changes DO mark the beginning of necessary structural changes to the global monetary system that will eventually culminate in a Gold standard of some kind being adopted again.

 

It’s not difficult to see why. We’ve been on this insane “paper only” since the early ‘70s. While everyone wants to claim we’ve seen a massive boost in GDP and stocks since that time, the reality is that when you account for inflation, it’s clear that most GDP and stock strength has been a result of inflation, NOT real organic growth.

 

Indeed, Bill King, Chief Market Strategist M. Ramsey King Securities recently published the following chart comparing REAL GDP (light blue), GDP when you account for inflation (dark blue), and the Dow Jones’ performance (black) over the last 30 years.

 

What follows is a clear picture that since the mid-70s MOST of the perceived stock gains have come from inflation. You should also note that MOST of the GDP growth we’ve seen since the early ‘70s has been the result of inflation as well (REAL GDP, the light blue line, is MILES below the “claimed” GDP, dark blue line).

 

 

 

What does all of this mean? That the inflationary system in place for the last 30+ years is crumbling, that paper money is going to become more and more worthless, and that we’re going to return to some kind of Gold standard in the coming years.

 

Prepare Now!

 

Graham Summers

 

PS. If you’ve yet to take steps to prepare your portfolio for the coming inflationary disaster, our FREE Special Report, The Inflationary Catastrophe explains not only why inflation is here now, why the Fed is powerless to stop it, and three investments that absolutely EXPLODE as a result of this.

 

All in all its 14 pages contain a literal treasure trove of information on how to take steps to prepare AND profit from what’s to come. And it’s all 100% FREE.

 

To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

 

 

 

 

 


Silver COT in Detail

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 12:51 PM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Most of the readers are no doubt aware by now that every Friday afternoon the CFTC releases the data known as the Commitment of Traders report (hereafter referred to as COT). That data comprises the positioning of traders from the close of trading on Tuesday the previous week through the close of trading on Tuesday of the current week. The lag is to allow CFTC to gather the data which is provided by the various brokerage firms on reportable traders. In looking over this week's data for silver, and this includes the Disaggregated report for both Futures and Options, I am once again struck with something that has me completely perplexed, namely the apparent lack of substanial buying noted in the report. Let me explain, on Tuesday of last week, the active Silver contract closed at $34.42. Tuesday of this week, it closed at $35.65 after spiking as high as $36.74 on Monday of this week. Taken toget...


Why Not a Global Currency?.. Peter King's Terror Hearings Take Over

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 12:49 PM PST

The Daily Bell Why Not a Global Currency? Friday, March 11, 2011 – by Staff Report Special drawing rights issued by the International Monetary Fund could be used as an international reserve currency, Hu Xiaolian, vice-governor of the People's Bank of China, said Friday. Hu told a symposium organized by the Bank of Paris that volatility in exchange rates among existing reserve currencies – which include the U.S. dollar – affects commodity prices and causes problems for other nations ... Hu said the SDRs have "a potential role to play as an international reserve asset." – Wall Street Journal Dominant Social Theme: The time has come to make a change. The IMF can lead the way to global financial efficiency. Free-Market Analysis: So much of the world's economy is in flux these days. The Middle East suffers from serial color revolutions. In Europe, the euro is faltering because of the Sovereign debt crisis. Despite comforting predictions...


All These Indicators Suggest Gold & Silver Fireworks About to Begin

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 12:40 PM PST

Connor Agrees With Goldrunner:*Gold and Silver*About to Take Off The gold bull is now on the verge of launching the most spectacular up-leg of this 10 year bull market. This spring we should see the final parabolic rally of the massive C-wave advance that began in April `09…[taking gold up a further 15% or so*to approx. $1650, silver up a further 40-45%*to as high as $50 and the HUI up *to somewhere between 800 and 900 (i.e. +40-60%). Let me explain the specifics:] Words: 1216 So*says*Toby Connor*(goldscents.blogspot.com)*in*an article* which Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.munKNEE.com, has edited ([* ]), abridged (…) and*reformatted*below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. (Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.)*Conner*goes*on to say: [B]Gold’s 4-Wave Price Pattern[/B] Gold moves in an ABCD wave pattern, driven not only by the fundamentals of the gold market...


Japanese, Russian and Indonesian Volcanoes Erupt ... 5 Japanese Nuclear Reactors In Danger ... 1 Is Leaking and May Melt Down Within 24 Hours

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 11:14 AM PST


Volcanoes have reportedly erupted in Japan, Indonesia, and Kamchatka Russia today, presumably due to the massive Japanese earthquake. There have been no reports of damage from the eruptions.

In addition, there are problems at three Japanese nuclear power plants.

The Fukushima plant is leaking radiation, and a nuclear expert says that things are getting worse, and "Fukushima has 24 hours to avoid a core meltdown scenario". (See Tyler Durden's report).

MSNBC reports:

"The situation is still several stages away from Three Mile Island when the reactor container ceased to function as it should," said Tomoko Murakami, leader of the nuclear energy group at Japan's Institute of Energy Economics

Two other Japanese nuclear reactors are now in trouble as well. Two other Japanese nuclear reactors are now in trouble as well [UPDATE: It is now up to 5 nuclear reactors].

As MSNBC notes:

Coolant systems failed at three quake-stricken Japanese nuclear reactors Saturday, sending radiation seeping outside one and temperatures rising out of control at two others.

Radiation surged to around 1,000 times the normal level in the control room of the No. 1 reactor of the Fukushima Daichi plant, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said. Radiation — it was not clear how much — had also seeped outside, prompting widening of an evacuation area to a six-mile radius from a two-mile radius around the plant. Earlier, 3,000 people had been urged to leave their homes.

 

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Saturday that the temperatures of its No.1 and No.2 reactors at its Fukushima Daini nuclear power station were rising, and it had lost control over pressure in the reactors.

 

***

 

About an hour after the plant shut down, however, the emergency diesel generators stopped, leaving the units with no power for important cooling functions.

 

***

 

Hours after the evacuation order, the government announced that the plant will release slightly radioactive vapor from the unit to lower the pressure in an effort to protect it from a possible meltdown.

Good luck to the Japanese scientists bravely trying to avert catastrophe. As MSNBC notes:

Japan has a "tremendous amount of technical capability and resources" to respond to the issue ....


Hell in a Bucket

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 10:53 AM PST

by Addison Wiggin - March 10, 2011

  • The "hell in a bucket" edition of The 5: Catching up on falling stocks, Mideast turmoil, the euro, Wisconsin... what else have we missed?
  • The Bond King joins our side of the Trade of the Decade... pulls the plug on U.S. Treasuries...
  • The greatest growth opportunity in the Western hemisphere... and the one thing everyone in Colombia says the country needs most...
  • New results in from a monumental study of stock returns... Michael Moore's a Nazi?..."fight or flight" in Vancouver.... much more

00:14Sheesh. We leave the country for a few days and all hell breaks loose?

"The 8.9 quake in Japan," our resident geologist Byron King tells us, "may be the world's fifth most powerful earthquake in the past 110 years. It may be the most powerful earthquake in Japan in 150 years.

"Civilization exists," Byron quotes Will Durant, "by geological consent, subject to change without notice."

00:19 — In part because of the earthquake and ensuring tsunami, stocks are selling off.

But the truth is, after an epic run over the last two years, they were due. A couple weeks ago, we noticed the S&P 500 had run up over 100% for only the third time in history. Now it's pulled back 3.5% from its Feb. 18 high.

00:28 — It appears, too, Libya's Col. Gaddafi has made good on his threat to torch the country's oil infrastructure out of spite.

Spite!


Libyan planes bombed the country's biggest oil terminal Wednesday night, for no reason other than it sits in a region now controlled by rebels.

00:45 — The planned "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia turned out to be a day of whimpering. A protest, organized on Facebook, has been in the works for weeks. But after police opened fire and wounded three demonstrators yesterday, no one showed up to the Rage.

In anticipation of more violence, traders had driven the number of $200 call options on oil to a record. That is, a whole lot of traders believe oil will reach $200 a barrel by May 17. You, however, don't have to play options to make money from the trend. Just follow the steps Byron King outlines in this presentation, and you'll be ready.

01:30 — Bill Gross joined the sell side of our Trade of the Decade today. He cleaned out his Pimco Total Return Fund of US Treasuries paper and loaded up on cash. Given he manages the largest bond fund in the world, we expect to have more company over here soon.

"Nearly 70% of the annualized issuance since the beginning of QE II has been purchased by the Fed," Gross wrote in his latest monthly communique. "Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn't?"

That's been our question for some time.

"What we look for in our Trade of the Decade," we wrote early in 2010, "for the sell side, is something that has just had its best decade ever...something that has been going up for so long people think it will go up forever...something that everyone wants.

"What does that describe? Well, the thing that comes closest is US Treasury debt. Yields have been going down (meaning, the price of debt is going up) since 1983. And now, despite a supply that seems to be going off the charts, demand for Treasury bonds, notes and bills has never been stronger. What's more...if our analysis of the US economy is correct...the supply of Treasury debt is going to continue to rocket upward for many years. Deficits of $1 trillion to $2 trillion per year are going to become commonplace.

"How long will it be before the market in Treasury debt crashes? How long will it be before hyperinflation...or a debt default...sends investors running for cover? We don't know...but it seems a likely bet that it will happen sometime in the next 10 years."

Mr. Gross backtracked a little this morning and said he still believes US T-bills should still carry AAA ratings. But, umn, actions speak louder than words, right?

01:38 — Moody's got around to downgrading Spanish government bonds this week. All of a sudden people are remembering there's a crisis in the Eurozone. The euro fell to a one-week low against the dollar.

01:42 — Meanwhile in the currency markets, readers of our newest publication, Strategic Currency Trader, had the chance to score a 98% gain this week by playing the Canadian dollar. Abe Cofnas, our currency expert who literally wrote the book on Forex trading, recommended readers buy the play on Monday. He followed up with a profit taking alert today.

If you'd like to turn the currency analysis you read here in The 5 into the chance for actual profits, we suggest you take a look right here. Act quickly and you'll have the chance to claim a charter member discount.

00:00 — Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is about to sign legislation stripping public-employee unions of their collective bargaining authority. Despite Michael Moore's promise to stand and fight. Republicans in the state Senate used a legislative maneuver to push the bill through this week, even though Democrats fled the state to prevent a quorum.

Ho hum.

01:58 — A few of other "signs of the times" we seem to have missed this week...

After months of study, the Federal Reserve just concluded that no bank has committed a "wrongful foreclosure," ever. Even those cases where the bank has repossessed houses bought with cash, apparently.

The chief financial officer at General Motors has resigned "unexpectedly." Let's hope for GM's sake that he's not following in the footsteps of Wells Fargo's CFO. That one resigned a few weeks ago amid an "ongoing internal dispute" over aggressive accounting practices.

02:13 — And finally, the results are in from a monumental study of how the stock markets and the GDP of nations are influenced by... phases of the moon.

The January issue of the Journal of Empirical Finance features this article by Dr. Stephen Keef of Victoria University in New Zealand: "Are investors moonstruck? Further international evidence on lunar phases and stock returns."

Keef examined potential influences of both the new moon and the full moon on 62 stock markets around the world between 1998-2008.

SCAM!


Keef's conclusion: "The overall enhanced new moon effect is independent of GDP. An overall full moon effect is absent."

Glad we got that straightened out.

02:30 — Here in Colombia we're continuing our tour of this young and growing emerging market. The country has a lot of catching up to do -- and that we believe is the core of the investment opportunity here.

"On Thursday," Chris Mayer reported back to Capital & Crisis readers this morning, "we visited Cementos Argos, the largest cement company in Colombia, with a 51% market share. It is an asset-rich company. In addition to its cement operations, Argos owns a huge land bank of 5,000 hectares and a portfolio with stakes in three other listed Colombian companies worth $3.3 billion and 600 million tons of coal reserves.

"Argos has a huge opportunity in Colombia. As is often the case when a boom arrives, the building of the infrastructure to support the boom comes later.

"Colombia is way behind in infrastructure. It needs miles and miles of roads. It needs bigger ports, expanded airports and railroads. This has been a recurring theme on our trip, something we heard everyone mention.

02:48 — "Colombia consumes about 220 kilograms of cement per capita annually, compared to 500 kilograms for Vietnam," Mayer continues. "In this respect, Colombia is well below the consumption rates of comparable developing economies. There is lots of room to grow.

"We've reviewed new road projects, such as Ruta del Sol, which will connect Bogota, the capital in the Andes, with Santa Marta, a port city on the Caribbean Sea. We talked about the Cartagena Refinery expansion. Both are huge projects as big as the Panama Canal expansion a few hours to the north. There is also a tunnel project that will connect Bogota to the Pacific port at Buenaventura. There are projects for hydropower plants, bus systems, pipelines and much more."

03:13 — One thing we've agreed: infrastructure has been one of the surprises of the trip. "We had heard and read," Chris sums up the point, "about the relative lack of good infrastructure in Colombia. But it is another thing to be down here and see it firsthand.

"Traffic in Bogota is impossible -- or nearly so. The roads are choked with small cars that go nowhere fast. It seems to take forever to go even short distances. One of our contacts here told us that Colombia has only 300 kilometers of two-lane two-way roads."

During our meeting with Ministry of Finance, we were told the government has identified infrastructure as one of 5 key "locomotives" -- alongside housing, oil and mining, innovation and agriculture -- that will pull the country along for the immediate future. There is a lot of money being thrown at these projects now... and we suspect that will continue for the next 5-7 years at least.

03:29 — Property prices in Bogota have skyrocketed because of an influx of wealthy Venezuelans escaping the "reforms" of their beloved president Hugo Chavez. If you want to move into an apartment in the swanky part of the Bogota it will now set you back $3500 a month for a 150 square meter apartment.

03:39 — "We've been enjoying your comments on Colombia," writes a reader. "My wife and I lived in Cali 1963 to 1966, arriving the day after Kennedy was assassinated. No drugs back then, but gangs of 'banditos' roamed the countryside making driving outside the city limits extremely dangerous.

"Before getting too excited about the strength of the 1900:1 Colombian Peso, I remember it was a low 10:1 when we first touched down and when we left 3 years later it was 20:1. Our first experience of what currency devaluation is all about."

"To focus in on what is the real Colombian Peso risk compare the 1963 peso gold ratio of 350:1 versus the 2,700,000:1 it takes to buy an ounce of gold today. Just imagine what might take place when "broke Uncle Sam" has to stop shoveling out its foreign aid."

The 5: More on Colombia, next week, if you can stomach it.

04:05 — "It has that stink of old chicken parts in the trash," says a reader reacting to Bank of America's move to create a "bad bank" to house all its rotting mortgage paper. "This is the epitome of why the Fed was created. I am sure the general public or 97 percent of us don't get it. It is legalized theft. And what is really strange is that it is so transparent.

"I am not a financial whiz, but I would assume that at some time the bank will transfer these to the Fed, based on the full value on the discounted cash flow, pocket the cash, and be rid of any losses. Millions will go to BOA, and I will be paying for the loss.

"Think I will start a bank. I can loan money to corrupt countries and multinational corporations as fast as anyone, not much risk that I can see.

"I'm sorry, I think I'll just get another beer."

The 5: Indeed.

05:00 — "Man you get them excited, don't you?" says the entire content of one e-mail in our inbox. We presume that's a reference to other readers' reaction to the Michael Moore speech in Wisconsin. Can't be anything about Charlie Sheen, since we've been studiously ignoring his public meltdown this week along with most everything else.

"I saw Mr. Moore at a rally at the University of Cincinnati a few years ago," writes another reader. "He reminded me of the type of socialist that my mother had witnessed in Germany during the mid to late 1930s. By 1940 it was too late. They used to be called... Nazis! The route that the USA is taking has me recalling more and more the history of my family and why we moved from one country to another in order to escape. I do not want to repeat this again, however it is becoming more likely that I shall."

We've been kicking around this very idea as theme for the Agora Financial Investment Symposium July 26-29, 2011 in Vancouver, B.C. "Fight or Flight: Capital At Risk!" come to Vancouver to join the discussion... call Barb Periello at (800) 926-6575 or (561) 243-2460 right now and claim your early bird discount.

That would also be a good place for us to grab that beer, eh?

Have a good weekend,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. You'll have to forgive us for any misspellings in today's 5. We penned pieces of the issue in a zooming car, at a restaurant, and during our meeting in a textile plant. Never fear, however, we'll be back in mistake-free mode on Monday.

P.P.S. We're not sure if there's a connection but in the last 48 hours we've seen scads of display ads on the Internet for the world's most useless electronic accessory.

It was just about 48 hours ago when Dan Amoss released an updated research report on the company that makes this accessory why it's set to crash no later than next Tuesday and how you can use this knowledge to make three times your money. Don't miss out. Check it out right here.

Thank you for reading The 5 Min. Forecast! We greatly value your questions and comments. Please send all feedback to 5minforecast@agorafinancial.com

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Will The Gold Price Post Lower Prices Next Week? A Monday Close Above $1,430 Would Ensure Gold Continue Higher

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 10:47 AM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1,421.60
Gold Price Close 4-Mar : 1,428.20
Change : -6.60 or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 3593.3
Silver Price Close 4-Mar : 3531.7
Change : 61.60 or 1.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 39.56
Gold Silver Ratio 4-Mar : 40.44
Change : -0.88 or -2.2%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02528
Silver Gold Ratio 4-Mar : 0.02473
Change : 0.00055 or 2.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 175.14
Dow in Gold Dollars 4-Mar : $ 176.10
Change : $ (0.96) or -0.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.472
Dow in Gold Ounces 4-Mar : 8.519
Change : -0.05 or -0.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 335.19
Dow in Silver Ounces 4-Mar : 344.49
Change : -9.30 or -2.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,044.40
Dow Industrial 4-Mar : 12,166.40
Change : -122.00 or -1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,304.28
S&P 500 4-Mar : 1,320.95
Change : -16.67 or -1.3%

US Dollar Index : 76.706
US Dollar Index 4-Mar : 77.234
Change : -0.53 or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,781.00
Platinum Price Close 4-Mar : 1,835.10
Change : -54.10 or -2.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 762.50
Palladium Price Close 4-Mar : 809.65
Change : -47.15 or -5.8%

Things are seldom clear, take the GOLD PRICE today, for instance. Overnight it double bottomed with yesterdays $1,403.00 low. Then it climbed as high as $1,423.90. That settles it, huh? Gold turned around. Well, no, because it closed at $1,421.50, up $9.30 but $1.10 below the 3 January close. In other words, not quite above milestone resistance. Gold's blowing hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth. Some crisis buying might have arisen from the Japanese earthquake, but that buying always melts like hoarfrost in the sunshine. Just as much support might have been born from today's Friday-ness, that is, folks closing out positions before the weekend. But gold couldn't clear that old high, or pierce $1,425 resistance.

I suspect, not very dogmatically, the GOLD PRICE will post lower prices next week. A brisk beginning Monday above $1,425 - $1,430 would gainsay that and bear gold higher upon beating angel wings.

SILVER PRICE five day chart looks like a long-necked ostrich. Today silver promised early on to wreck yesterday's poor record, and fell as low as 3406c. That came before New York opened, around 7:00 a.m. New York opened about 3450c, then stubbornly rose at a sharp angle all day. High came at 3614c, but by Comex close silver had backed off to 3593.3, up 86.9c. In the aftermarket it again traded over 3600c, but again backed off.

Like gold, silver refuses to make itself plain. Today it closed strong, and came back handsomely, and even closed 61.6c higher than last Friday. As I wrote yesterday, until silver travels more, we can't puzzle out whether this is merely a short term correction, or something calling for heavy-duty painkillers.

Yet all is not mystery. Clear boundaries are 3600c and 3400c. If the SILVER PRICE falls through 3400c, I will lean more to a larger correction. If it bests 3600c, silver is resuming its rally and buying a ticket for 4000c - 4400c.

Just to confuse your mind completely, the GOLD/SILVER RATIO made a new low today at 39.560. But wait, don't new lows in the ratio usually coincide with new price highs? Well, yes, but, there 'tis.

Just about the time you think you might have markets scoped out so that you understand just a little something, an 8.8 earthquake hits Japan.

Not long after that earthquake hit the Japanese Nice Government Men made their presence felt in the currency market. The yen was tanking, so they bought a bundle to jack it up. Naturally that whacked the US dollar index, but maybe we can cut the buck some slack, a little at least, for an exogenous event.

By day's end today the dollar index was trading at 76.706, down 57 basis points (0.73%). Yet this sufficieth not to annihilate the dollar's progress this week. It held above the 77.65 support, so today appears nothing more than a touchback to breakout. Monday will answer decisively. If the dollar can beat back its foes and hold the 76.60 line, then its embryonic uptrend remains in force, with all that implies for stocks, silver and gold. (Headwind, that's what it implies.)

STOCKS, sayeth the oracle at Dogwood Mudhole, will fly like the dove over a baited field full of eager hunters with pockets full of 12 gauge shells. (Oracles are always so obscure). My interpretation of the oracle's message is this:

The Dow broke must-hold support yesterday for the DEFINITIVE move. Today the dead cat bouncy-bounced merely to yesterday's high (12,087). Sure, that climbed over 12,000, but not enough to bind the wound of yesterday's plunge. Therefore, 'twill drop further next week. In fact, 'twill drop a LOT next week.

Dow rose today 59.79 points to roost at 12,044.40. SAP flew up 9.17 points to perch at 1,304.28.

I missed pointing out to y'all yesterday (how did I do that?) the Dow's falling through its 50 day moving average (11,997.31). It did.

Stocks remain the Yugo in the Great Market of Investment Vehicles. The USED Yugo.

Y'all may remember that early American paper currencies often carried the warning, "Tis Death To Counterfeit." Would that we had a like warning today to all politicians and, especially "activists," a word growing daily more unwelcome, even loathsome in my mind.

My mind dwelleth particularly on these state legislature bills to make silver and gold "alternative" money. I speak not as a parvenu, but as one who for 40 years has studied monetary science and history. Again and again I recall Pope's adage, "A little learning is a dangerous thing -- drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring."

Nothing with the possible exception of sex brings out weird, froward ideas like the money issue. The field resembles one of those filbert plantations in Oregon at harvest time, just full of nuts. There are state bank people, and social crediters, and assorted friends of paper money, and monometallic gold freaks, and US noters, and community currencies and tally-money people, and most have an abundance of apocryphal quotations and historical anecdotes to back up their bogus theories.

Making it worse are newly spawned "activists" armed with a half-quart of knowledge who leap into legislatures at tall bounds and cook up half-baked legislation that fails by miles to reach the goal, or, worse yet and usual, mucks up everything worse than it was.

Listen: change is a dangerous thing. Change can kill you, and lots of bystanders, too. Whoever goeth about to change, had best beware lest he leave a deeper, bloodier mess than he promised to clean up.

So as bad as the Federal Reserve and its fractional reserve banking is, goofy, cranky monetary ideas could be worse. So with all humility, here's a check list of what genuine restoration of silver and gold money would include:

** NO "backed" currencies. We don't want "backed" anything, we want gold and silver money. Circulating

** A practicable and merciful transition from Fed notes to silver and gold.

** Both gold and silver must be included, reciprocally valuing each other (preferably not at a fixed rate), or the system is a lie from the start. No gold only standard, or silver only.

** Most of all, a firm resolve by the state and legislature that no matter how much hatred, heat, and blarney Washington and their running dog media and all the friends of paper money and other parasites throw at them, THEY WILL ESTABLISH SOUND MONEY.

Anything that includeth not these things is a counterfeit, no matter how many "activists" come wrapped around it.

On this day in 1901 JP Morgan purchased Carnegie Steel Corp and formed the US Steel cartel. It made Andrew Carnegie the world's richest man. Today these cartels are formed by the government under the heading of "anti-trust regulation.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.


The Day of Gold-Plated Public Sector Pensions are Numbered

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 10:00 AM PST

Public sector employees, the workforce 'elite' led by state and municipal workers, are now storming legislative chambers to preserve their special status. Wisconsin is the current case study in what happens when the government ... Read More...



Redefining Labor Productivity

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 10:00 AM PST

If you are looking for useful information, but also for a good laugh, in the latest Big Load Of Lying Crap (BLOLC) from your government, the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is it.

It starts right out with the seemingly innocuous, "Nonfarm business sector labor increased at a 2.6 percent annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2010. The gain in productivity reflects a 4.0 percent increase in output and a 1.4 percent increase in hours worked."

In trying to decipher this, I was later aided when they defined the term "labor productivity" to mean "Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours of all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers."

But (and this is my point, such as it is) they never say what "output" is, which makes me assume that it is merely the aggregate cost of each unit of output multiplied by the cost of production of each unit for manufacturing firms, and/or some other arbitrary measure of "output" for services.

This is where I started getting an idea!

First, I talk my boss into tying an employee's bonus money to their increases in productivity, with, say, a percent of increased productivity rewarded with a percent of salary increase.

Then, putting my latest Mogambo Plan For Quick Gains (MPFQG) into effect, I fire half the employees, and raise the price of each unit of output by 1,000%, making the necessary "adjustments" in the invoices we send to the customers so that the books come out all nice and tidy, and we will have something to use as evidence against irate customers.

Therefore, with my output (units times price) up 1,000%, and workers down by 50%, my productivity would zoom by 2,000%!

Therefore, according to the agreement, my salary would immediately increase by 2,000%, which, after a few months, would be enough, if I scrimped and saved, to coast long enough to get to retirement, especially if I can figure out a way to dump the wife and kids, too!

This incentive was sweet, and so easy probably due to my planned "Ask for a raise and get fired immediately!" policy.

As for the bad news from the BLS news bulletin (which is that people are not making more income), there is a silver lining, which is that employees are obviously not dragging anybody's terrific productivity numbers down, as the BLS reports that "Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses fell 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, due to productivity increasing faster than hourly compensation."

Of course, I expect some resistance from my boss on installing my fabulous "incentive plan" to boost productivity (and unwittingly make me a rich man in the process!), which will probably be a variation on her usual routine of loudly screaming at me, "Get out of my office!" over and over, louder and louder, until I leave, slamming the door behind me as I do so, just to show her who's really, really in charge here.

But incomes being lower is the start of a lot of Bad, Bad Things (BBT), as you can well imagine, and if this doesn't make you run around screaming, "We're freaking doomed!" it should at least make you run, screaming or not, to buy gold, silver and oil as vital lifelines against the horrifying inflation in consumer prices that will result from the Federal Reserve creating so staggeringly much money, all abetted by, as introduced in an earlier paragraph, a Big Load Of Lying Crap (BLOLC), which makes it all so easy that you, too, must say, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!"

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Redefining Labor Productivity originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


Nuclear Expert: "Fukushima Has 24 Hours To Avoid A Core Meltdown Scenario"

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 09:43 AM PST


In an interview with Mark Hibbs, a Berlin-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonprofit think tank, Newsmax magazine asks - what happens next at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. The answer according to the nuclear expert, is that as Fukushima is now well on its way to a full core-melt nuclear accident, a worst case scenario could possibly lead to the same results last seen in 1986 Chernobyl.

Below we present a brief overview of the Fukushima plant from Wikipedia:

The Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima I NPP, 1F), often referred to as Fukushima Dai-ichi, is a nuclear power plant located in the town of Okuma in the Futaba District of Fukushima Prefecture. With six separate units located on site with a combined power of 4.7 GW, Fukushima I is one of the 25 largest nuclear power stations in the world. Fukushima I is the first nuclear plant to be constructed and run entirely by The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

Fukushima II Nuclear Power Plant, 11.5 kilometres (7.1 mi) to the south, is also run by TEPCO.

Unit Type First Criticality Electric Power
Fukushima I - 1 BWR March 26, 1971 460 MW
Fukushima I - 2 BWR July 18, 1974 784 MW
Fukushima I - 3 BWR March 27, 1976 784 MW
Fukushima I - 4 BWR October 12, 1978 784 MW
Fukushima I - 5 BWR April 18, 1978 784 MW
Fukushima I - 6 BWR October 24, 1979 1,100 MW
Fukushima I - 7 (planned) ABWR October, 2013 1,380 MW
Fukushima I - 8 (planned) ABWR October, 2014 1,380 MW

So what happens next? First, Hibbs explains precisely what already has taken place:
“What happened in Japan is very alarming because it would appear . . . that about 2:30 this afternoon Japan time, when the earthquake struck . . . three of the reactors that were operating were disenabled because of a loss of offsite power that was caused by the earthquake.”

The Japanese situation appears to be roughly analogous to the Three Mile Island incident in the United States, where authorities struggled for days to contain an improperly cooled reactor core but were able to avert a widespread release of nuclear material.

“We were in a situation as I recall then very similar to where we are now, where we were told by news media in 1979 that there was a core melt accident unfolding, we didn’t know how serious it would become, and what would happen,” Hibbs tells Newsmax.

At least one of the reactors in Japan, and perhaps more, “ are on the path of a core-melt accident. It’s called a loss of coolant accident. . . . And it’s up to the Japanese authorities, together with the industries in that country, to find a way to stem this problem,” he said.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that the United States is trying to help alleviate the situation. "We just had our Air Force assets in Japan transport some really important coolant to one of the nuclear plants," Clinton said, according to the Associated Press.

The Japanese reactors are designed to drop neutron-blocking control rods into the core as soon as the plants detect a seismic disturbance. These controls apparently functioned normally. But even after the procedure, scientists say a base level of heat continues to flow, and coolant is needed to constrain those temperatures.
Unfotunately, Japan does not have much time:
Asked how long Japanese scientists have to correct the problem to avoid a core meltdown, Hibbs tells Newsmax that it depends on system design, adding, “it could be a day, plus or minus 10 hours.”

“After a while, with the heat building up in there, and lack of coolant, you’re going to see damage in your fuel, the cladding, the metal container around the nuclear material, begins to buckle or balloon or break, and after a little while you’ll get a situation where the fuel falls apart, melts, and falls into the core, and then you’ve got a classical core melt accident like you had in Three Mile Island that you had in the United States in '79.”

Hibbs spoke with Japanese government officials who told him the force of the tsunami was so severe that the water may have flooded the reactors,  power generators, and cooling mechanisms, disabling the equipment. "Which means they have to resort to basically a military-type exercise, to rush in to the devastated site equipment that they can quickly hook up to the reactor to get power in there and start this emergency equipment, to get cooling water into that core and prevent that fuel from overheating.

“And if they can’t do that,” he told Newsmax, “then you’re going to have this meltdown.”

They have 24 hours or so to avoid a core meltdown, he says. But if one occurs, two scenarios could follow: The good outcome would mirror what happened at Three Mile Island, while the bad one could involve what he called a “Chernobyl scenario, where the damage to the reactor was such that the integrity of the structures were damaged.

“There was an explosion and other things happened in there, that opened up the reactor so the inventory of radioactive material . . . went into the atmosphere and generated this deadly plume that we know happened in Chernobyl.

“So that is the ultimate worst-case scenario. Nobody is saying that’s going to happen. Nobody is even saying we’re going to have a core meltdown. But we have a window of time now. We don’t know how much is left — but the Japanese authorities and the government and all the agencies that they can muster are working overtime to get cooling systems on that site powered and working.”

The April 1986 Chernobyl disaster cost an estimated 4,000 lives. More than 330,000 Russians had to be relocated because of contamination.

But Hibbs says, “A lot of worst-case things would have to happen for us to get that far.”

Hibbs said the Japanese right now are fighting the clock to contain the heating.


Coping with price inelasticity of gold

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 09:38 AM PST

By Babu Das Augustine
March 12, 2011 (GulfNews) —

… the price inelasticity of demand for gold is for real.

… Investors often buy gold as a shield against inflation. Currently, with rising inflation, many economies are heading deeper into negative real interest rates. The lower the rate of interest, the greater the demand for gold, which, bearing no running yield, generally then gets sidelined again in favour of stocks, high-yielding currencies and bonds when rates rise and returns improve.

… culturally, such unfettered consumption of the yellow metal has its merits — such as keeping the peace.

[source]

RS View: Fine results from high-grading an article…


Silver Commitment of Traders Report looks like it was produced on Fantasy Island

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 09:30 AM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] I will have more on this later but once again it appears that this week's COT report is a fantasy....


Gold and Silver Still Dollar Dependent

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 09:07 AM PST

Despite the troubles in the Middle East and its ramifications for oil prices the real driving force behind both silver and gold prices is still the US Dollar. The inverse relationship remains intact and as the dollar tries once again to get ... Read More...



The Sprotts Expect Silver to Keep on Sizzling

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 09:01 AM PST

Source: Karen Roche and Sally Lowder of The Gold Report 03/11/2011 Sprott Money executives Eric Sprott (chairman) and Larisa Sprott (president), sing the praises of the "poor man's gold" in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. "All the data supports the thesis that silver is undervalued," says Eric—who serves as chairman of Sprott Inc., as well as CEO, CIO and senior portfolio manager of Sprott Asset Management LP. "We'll certainly see a three-digit price," he adds. Larisa explains how the company's business model differs from others in the space and reveals plans to open Sprott Money USA within the year. The Gold Report: Your Markets at a Glance commentary last November said it seemed unlikely that silver would stay under $30 for long. Four months later, the spot price is about $35. Are you surprised by how quickly your prediction came true? Eric Sprott: Not really. Based on fundamental evidence, technical evidence and other things going on in the m...


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts - In the Silver Pit No One Can Hear You Screaming

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:49 AM PST


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver - Important Timing Connection?

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:47 AM PST

Recent developments in precious metals space raise series of questions in terms of sustainability of yellow and white metal moves in the foreseeable future. In order to gauge near-term precious metal moves, investors track precious ... Read More...



Precious Metals Soaring on Earthquakes, Eurozone Fears and Empty State Treasuries

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:38 AM PST

Gold (SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)) is breaking into new 52-week highs and silver (iShares Silver Trust (SLV)) is at its highest point in more than 30 years as Libya, one of the largest oil producers, faces a civil war and as earthquakes and tsunamis rattle Japan. Libya is not following Tunisia and Egypt with a somewhat moderate transition; this revolt has been extremely violent and bloody. A lot of the fear at the moment is due to concern that protests could spread to Saudi Arabia. Investors are fearing the rapid rise in oil (iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil TR Index ETN (OIL)) prices may be the spark that hurts a questionable global economic recovery as equities (SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)) sell off, bringing down some miners to extremely cheap levels considering the high price of gold and silver bullion.

Countries that have created easy monetary policies and that are still struggling with high unemployment are finding it extremely difficult to face soaring gas prices and rising fuel costs. Now eurozone debt fears are resurfacing as Spain (iShares MSCI Spain Index (EWP)), Portugal, Greece, Italy, and Ireland face soaring deficits. Within the United States you have troubled states with government workers demanding their benefits as states face empty treasuries.

The US dollar (PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)) has a hit a new low and is in danger of significantly selling off as precious metals gain safe haven appeal. The one thing that has saved the US dollar this week is eurozone debt fears. However, next week we may hear more talk of quantitative easing III (QE3) as jobless claims remain high and as eurozone fears resurface.

Investors have moved back into precious metals, however the gold miners (SPDR Gold Shares (GDX)) have not yet confirmed this move due to the weak equity market. All eyes are on the S&P 500 and maintaining the 50-day moving average. If equity markets can hold up and reverse here then some of the miners should follow bullion into new highs. There may be pullbacks and occasional sell-off days, however the precious metals market remains one of the strongest multi-year trends and one must be careful of being shaken off a secular bull trend and of misinterpreting profit-taking from institutional selling.

Gold has a lot of cash on the sidelines from investors who got shaken out in January. This should lead to a measured move to at least the $1550-$1600 area on gold and the $38-40 area for silver. I believe that gold and silver will follow a similar path of their upward moves in August of 2010, March of 2010, and July of 2009. We must ride this wave and uptrend in precious metals and not forget that there may be occasional sell-offs and profit-taking. After five consecutive weeks higher, it is only natural and healthy to have some profit-taking, but it shouldn't make you lose sight of the big picture: the uptrend in precious metals and the danger of currencies backed by governments with soaring deficits.


Gold settles higher on safe-haven buying

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:30 AM PST

By Claudia Assis
March 11, 2011 (MarketWatch) — Gold futures on Friday overcame a weak start to settle higher as investors turned to the metal as losses for other commodities such as oil moderated after Japan's powerful earthquake.

Gold for April delivery added $9.30, or 0.7%, to $1,421.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold notched a mild weekly loss, however, down 0.5%.

… Along with China and the U.S., Japan is a top consumer of commodities. As oil prices slumped earlier in the day, "the market wasn't sure which way to go," and gold opened lower, said Jim Steel, a commodities analyst with HSBC in New York. As oil prices moderated, however, investors returned to gold, some hedging positions ahead of the weekend, he added.

In addition to the global impact of the earthquake, "the debt crisis in eurozone peripherals is rekindling, and the situation in North Africa and the Arab world remains extremely tense," analysts at Commerzbank said in a report to clients Friday.

[source]


4 Hour Silver Chart - update

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:30 AM PST

[url]http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/[/url] [url]http://www.fortwealth.com/[/url] Bulls were able to blast silver through resistance centered near the $35.50 level forcing out the weaker shorts and propelling the market above $36. The volume was tremendous indicating the panic among the shorts and the strong pressure being exerted by the bulls. Once price moved above the $36 level the same persistent seller appeared and stymied the move higher. However, if bulls can force price through this level early next week and hold it above $36, this market looks as if it wants to run to $40. Just as $30 was the level that thwarted silver for a while back a few weeks ago, so the $36 level is now serving as a similar barrier. If it goes, so does silver. If it holds, price might well work back down towards $34 once again and perhaps set up a range trade. ...


From Tsunami Police to the Dodo Derby

Posted: 11 Mar 2011 08:30 AM PST

We'll begin today with a couple of important announcements. First, a massive tsunami unfurled along the California coast this morning…and your editor observed it firsthand.

At 8:25 A.M., on the button, sirens blared and a tidal wave descended upon Main Beach here in Laguna. There weren't any giant waves, of course, nor even the slightest visible ripple along the surf. But there was a massive tsunami of police cars and emergency vehicles crowding the beachfront to protect the public from the "emergency that wasn't."

The photo below, snapped moments after the tsunami's predicted arrival, shows very clearly that the only thing that swept across Laguna Beach this morning was a hodgepodge of uniforms and badges swirling about as purposelessly as driftwood.

California Tsunami Police

California's treasury may be running on empty, but somehow, we still manage to find the money to send police down to the beach to watch the waves roll in.

Please understand, we have no quarrel with this state of affairs; we'd much rather see a cop car on the beach, for example, than in our rear-view mirror.

We just don't understand the math that makes this system work.

Next item on today's agenda:

It seems we have once again annoyed the folks over at the Darwin Awards. We are sorry to have done so and wish to issue a public apology. To view some of the real work these fine, actual Darwin Award folk do, we present this link directly to their website. Feel free to visit it or not, as you wish.

Further, in consideration of our respect for the folks at the Darwin Awards – and in recognition of their trademark – we will heretofore refrain from utilizing any portion of the term "Darwin Awards" in our little spectacle here at The Daily Reckoning.

It's difficult to find a new name for our contest on such short notice. But fear not, after putting our heads together here at Daily Reckoning headquarters, we came up with the following: "The-name-of-the-guy-who-came-up-with-the-idea-of-evolution-but-who's-name-we-cannot-use-due-to-trademark-infringement-constraints-Award."

For short, we have renamed our event the "Dodo Derby." Joel Bowman provides some details on the Dodo Derby's first runner up – a state flush with movie star governors, gaping budget deficits and tsunami-gazing police forces – right here.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning

From Tsunami Police to the Dodo Derby originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


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