saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- A Sound & Credible Currency
- Commodities Boom: Will Coal Be the Next Gold?
- Lassonde sees EU collapse and $1,500 gold this year
- Chart Focus: Oil Clear for Blast-Off
- Why Investing in Precious Metals and Energy is STILL the Way to Go
- Global Money Printing Is A Recipe For A Global Economic Nightmare
- Goldrunner: Fractal Analysis Suggests Silver to Reach $52 – $56 by May – June 2011
- ECB : No change in Gold assets last week
- Sprott, Govermnet lies, No more Silver, Enjoy!
- Alan Greenspan and Gordon Brown Mwah Mwah!
- Selection of Gold Mines charts, monthly
- Paging Blythe for the last time, Silver lease rates at 1.37%, paging Blythe, need exit strategy, Blythe are you there?
- GOT Morgans? Time to test...and people thought I was bullshitting in Bears Part 4 about Tungsten
- Andrew Maguire Bombshell...or NOT?
- Why I'm Buying Silver at $30
- After The Bretton Woods Arrangement: The power of Gold
- This could be a big buying opportunity in agriculture stocks
- Pimco's El-Erian: Middle Eastern crisis is a huge warning for the U.S.dollar
- Precious metals expert: Why I'm buying silver at $30
- Australian Gold Nugget
- Russian Gold Investment Coins -10 Rouble Chervonets and 50 Rouble “George the Victorious”
- Gold, Silver and Oil Stocks on Fire
- Do Funds Have Enough Metal?
- Interview with John Embry
- U.S. housing data may have understated extent of collapse-report says
- Massive 5,663,804 Ounces of Silver Withdrawn From SLV
- Rich farmers now buy silver bars, not jewellery
- Interview with Pierre Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada
- Gold and Silvers Daily Review for February 23rd, 2011
- Silver Train Is A Coming Are You Onboard
- Why are Gold & Silver Breaking Out?
- Why Im Buying Silver at $30
- Silver "Disconnected from Gold" as Middle East Turmoil Hits Equities, Oil Rises Again
- The Role of US Debt in the Current Revolution
- Oil Quarrels with Copper
- Whither Gold?
- 5 Dollar Gas? Get Ready To Pay An Arm And A Leg For Gasoline
- Dissecting the last Wynter Benton Message, and Why I think WB et al is full of shit
- PART B silver open interest still very high..Libya in a mess!!
- Get ready for Ag Rockets because I sold some silver today
- Jeff Clark – Why I'm Buying Silver At $30
- Tom Woods with Dennis Miller
- Silver Raid Coming, She's out of Options, March is like Next week
- Where are the Baby-Boomer Nest Eggs?
| Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:37 AM PST "SILVER HITS new all-time highs in Euro" proclaimed Zero Hedge on Monday. Regular readers of the blog site won't choke to know it was wrong, this time by only one third. Mistaking (and showing) a chart of month-end prices for a chart of daily silver prices, Zero Hedge's pseudonymous host, Tyler Durden, missed the true Euro-equivalent spike to €32.80 per ounce of 18 January 1980 – hit in what was then the Deutsche Mark the very same day that silver priced in Dollars also hit its all-time high to date...some 44% above this week's top. | ||
| Commodities Boom: Will Coal Be the Next Gold? Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:31 AM PST Money Morning submits: [Editor's Note: We told you to "buy gold" back when the yellow metal was trading at only $770 an ounce. It nearly doubled. Now, former global merchant banker Martin Hutchinson tells us why coal will be the "new gold." And he shows us the No. 1 way to profit.] By Martin Hutchinson The run-up in commodities prices has been a long one. And it shows no signs of abating. As a Money Morning reader, you know that we predicted this run-up. Back in October 2007, for instance, we told readers to buy gold - when it was trading at $770 an ounce. Those of you who followed our advice have done quite well. But now it's time to make a new prediction. The run-up in commodities prices isn't going to end. But it is going to change. You see, commodities are going to break into two distinct groups: Traditional inflation Complete Story » | ||
| Lassonde sees EU collapse and $1,500 gold this year Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:31 AM PST | ||
| Chart Focus: Oil Clear for Blast-Off Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:09 AM PST
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| Why Investing in Precious Metals and Energy is STILL the Way to Go Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:05 AM PST "I have put almost all of my eggs in one basket - precious metals and energy - with the bulk being in precious metals. These are diversified only in that they span bullion, geography and the range of very large to the very early stage junior exploration companies. A third of my investments are either in individual stocks (or their long-term warrants should they have any) of which many of the companies are juniors and the other two thirds are in mutual funds which invest in a range of larger-cap precious metals stocks." Words: 1122 | ||
| Global Money Printing Is A Recipe For A Global Economic Nightmare Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:05 AM PST If the U.S. dollar is being devalued so rapidly, then why does it sometimes increase in value against other global currencies? It is because there are times when one particular global currency will fall faster than the others but the reality is that they are all being rapidly devalued. As the 6 charts below illustrate, the UK, the EU, Japan, China and India, as well as the U.S., have all been printing money like there is no tomorrow. Unfortunately, this is a recipe for a global economic nightmare. Words: 1102 | ||
| Goldrunner: Fractal Analysis Suggests Silver to Reach $52 – $56 by May – June 2011 Posted: 23 Feb 2011 04:05 AM PST Dollar Inflation remains the driver of the pricing environment for almost everything denominated in U.S. Dollars as long as the Fed continues to monetize debt. The debt monetization creates Dollar Inflation that results in Dollar Devaluation. By the time the Fed has ramped up the QE II that they have announced will end in June, I expect Gold, Silver, and the HUI will have risen to $1860 - $1975, $52 - $56 and 940 - 970 respectively. Let me show you why. Words: 1301 | ||
| ECB : No change in Gold assets last week Posted: 23 Feb 2011 03:46 AM PST
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| Sprott, Govermnet lies, No more Silver, Enjoy! Posted: 23 Feb 2011 02:40 AM PST | ||
| Alan Greenspan and Gordon Brown Mwah Mwah! Posted: 23 Feb 2011 02:06 AM PST "...So now Sir Alan Greenspan is going to hold regular, formal conferences with Gordon Brown by telephone. Just what kind of advice can HM Treasury expect? - at www.dailyreckoning.co.uk - Free daily news and views on gold, interest rates, the stock market and more... | ||
| Selection of Gold Mines charts, monthly Posted: 23 Feb 2011 02:00 AM PST | ||
| Posted: 23 Feb 2011 01:46 AM PST Big Smile on my face today...forget spot price, this metals data is getting awesome. | ||
| GOT Morgans? Time to test...and people thought I was bullshitting in Bears Part 4 about Tungsten Posted: 23 Feb 2011 01:01 AM PST "PORT ANGELES, Wash. - Counterfeit coins by the thousands are turning up in Washington state, and authorities are warning coin collectors to be on the lookout for them. All or most of the counterfeits appear to be from China. "Stacks of ingots, bars, all kinds of stuff - they make everything from pennies all the way up to silver dollars," says Port Angeles police officer Duane Benedict. "China | ||
| Andrew Maguire Bombshell...or NOT? Posted: 23 Feb 2011 12:42 AM PST "New York and London, Feb. 23rd, 2011: Coghlan Capital today announced the launch of MetalsTrades, a unique service for gold and silver traders and investors. In addition to intraday traders this specialist service is ideally suited for traders or institutions that have or are looking to establish core positions in gold or silver and would like to hedge or capitalize on intraday moves in these | ||
| Posted: 23 Feb 2011 12:39 AM PST Why I'm Buying Silver at $30 By: Jeff Clark 22 February, 2011 BIG GOLD The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It's already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So, is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying? I've read a few articles that say we should expect silver to drop to the $25 level, and one pinpointed $22. Others, of course, see bullish tea leaves for the near term and believe it's headed higher. Of those that assert silver will decline, most believe it will be temporary, though one writer claims the bull market in precious metals is over (I think he's a holdout from the gold-is-a-bubble camp). These authors could be right about a near-term decline, but I'm less concerned with what the price does this month or even the next few months, and more focused on where it's likely headed over the next few years. Caution: the chart ahead may cause excitement. While there are lots of reasons to be bullish on silver, what everyone really wants to know is how high the price can go. Here's one hint, based strictly on historical price performance. Silver rose an incredible 3,646% from the November 1971 low of $1.32 to its January 21, 1980 high of $49.45 (London PM fix prices). Our current advance, through February 4, is 596%. At $30, silver would have to climb over five times to match the last great bull market. If it did, the price would hit $160.89 per ounce (from its bottom of $4.295 on March 30, 2001). You'll also notice silver has a record of outperforming gold in these two bull markets. In spite of the price dropping 26.9% in 2008 (while gold gained 5%), the metal has outrun its yellow cousin by 38.6% since their respective lows in 2001. Gold advanced 2,333% in the 1970s; it's currently up 430%. If it matched the last run, the price would hit $6,227.26 per ounce, a return of four-and-a-half times the gold you buy today. From solely a historical price perspective, the chart certainly suggests we've got a long way to go with both metals. The question is if the fundamentals support such price advances (show me a healthy dollar and no threat of inflation, and we'll talk), but my point for the moment is that there is an established precedence for the price of these metals to climb much higher. And just as important, to keep one's eye on the big picture. So, yes, I'm buying silver at $30, in part because I think the potential for enormous gains is high. However, I'll add that I'm not draining my cash account to do so. I think it's important for the precious metals investor to always be in the game, but given silver's volatility and the precarious nature of most markets right now, prudence suggests we keep some powder dry as well. Let's say one of the soothsayers noted above is correct and silver temporarily falls to $25. If you snag it at that level, your endgame return would be 543%, vs. the 436% gain from $30 (excluding premiums and storage costs). That's more than another 100% gain on your original investment. But how does one buy silver not knowing if the price will plummet or soar? For example, silver could take off from these levels, never to see $30 again, leaving those of you waiting for a sell-off out of the market. Or it could sink to $25, making investors who went all in now regret they didn't wait for a better price. Or it could trade sideways until, say, next fall, leaving both parties uncertain and on the sidelines. In my opinion, there's a one-word answer to the question. It solves all dilemmas – it keeps you in the market, while simultaneously letting you buy at lower prices if that occurs. It lets you build your position bigger and bigger without the worry of whether you're getting a good price. That one-word verb is, accumulate. Or in the vernacular made popular in the '80s by the financial planning community, dollar cost average. In other words, buy a little now, buy a little next month, etc., until you have a position sufficient in size to fight off inflation and any other economic woe we're likely to encounter over the next few years. So my advice is, buy, hold, repeat. Because if our silver market ends up looking anything like that left bar in the chart, you may regret not having bought at $30, too news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1298408054.php | ||
| After The Bretton Woods Arrangement: The power of Gold Posted: 23 Feb 2011 12:30 AM PST ...the Bretton Woods arrangement of global finance and exchange rates was built on the bedrock strength of the US economy...Backed by a mountain of gold that represented better than two-thirds of the worlds total reserves, the dollar looked rock solid- at www.dailyreckoning.co.uk - Free daily news and views on gold, interest rates, the stock market and more... | ||
| This could be a big buying opportunity in agriculture stocks Posted: 23 Feb 2011 12:02 AM PST From OilPrice.com: In January, I wimped out of my hefty long position in the grain ETF (JJG), hoping to sidestep a potential selloff going into a dreaded U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report, which last year triggered limit down moves. The report turned out to be benign, and I ended up sidestepping an 18% pop in the security. It is now six weeks later, and we have our limit down moves across the entire ag space. But this time it is a global "RISK OFF" trade triggered by the calamitous events in Libya. I just received word that a close friend working there for an oil major was safely airlifted to Malta, while another reader emails me that Khadafi is dynamiting pipelines to prevent them falling into the hands of rebels. A declaration of "force majeure" does little to calm investors. Given that the ags have been among the best performers this year, it only makes sense that a flight to safety delivers to them the worst drubbing. If you are still holding your position in this space, don't sweat too many bullets... Read full article... More on agriculture: Food CRISIS: Farmers can't produce enough grain Jim Rogers: How anyone can profit from the coming crisis Forget gold... One of America's favorite commodities is headed to all-time highs | ||
| Pimco's El-Erian: Middle Eastern crisis is a huge warning for the U.S.dollar Posted: 22 Feb 2011 11:54 PM PST From Bloomberg: The spread of political turmoil to Libya will add "stagflationary winds" to the global economy, according to Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. Protests in Libya, holder of Africa's largest oil reserves, poses more "systemic" risk to the global economy as opposed to the upheaval in Egypt and Tunisia, El-Erian said in a Bloomberg Television interview with Tom Keene on the "Surveillance Midday" program. Western nations will face accelerating inflation and smaller demand in the Mideast and North Africa for their exports, on top of the "new normal" of slower growth and lingering higher unemployment, according to El-Erian. There will be "higher inflation and lower growth because of higher oil prices, which take away purchasing power and transfers wealth somewhere else," El-Erian said. There will be "higher geopolitical risk, which tends to diminish animal spirits and therefore impacts investments. From an economic perspective, it's important for the West to understand that these are stagflationary winds." Oil surged to a two-year high as Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi vowed to fight a growing rebellion until his "last drop of blood." Speaking in Tripoli, the capital, he also pledged to deploy the army and police tomorrow to impose order and called on supporters to reclaim the streets. Continued protests "will lead to civil war," Qaddafi said, Qaddafi's crackdown on a weeklong uprising has already left more than 200 dead, according to Human Rights Watch. Crude Oil Gains Crude oil for March delivery gained $7.37, or 8.6 percent, to $93.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices touched $94.49 a barrel, the highest level since Oct. 3, 2008. Futures have risen 15 percent in the past year. Libya is the latest nation to be rocked by protests ignited by last month's ouster of Tunisia's president and fanned by the Feb. 11 fall of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. While violent unrest has also spread to Bahrain, Iran and Yemen, none of those regimes has used as much force to quell protesters as Libya. The unrest in the Middle East and North Africa will be "stagflationary" for the global economy in the short term because it will increase oil and commodity prices and shrinks the markets in which anti-government demonstrations have taken place, El-Erian said in commentary in the Financial Times today. "Over time, however, such market apprehension is likely to give way as the impact of greater long-term stability in a key part of the world is felt," he wrote. "In the long term, after all, democracy and individual freedoms are the best drivers of prosperity." Dollar 'Warning' The U.S. dollar, which typically rises in times of political unrest, was little changed against the euro, trading at $1.3663, while currencies such as the Swiss franc rallied on demand for a refuge from geopolitical turmoil. The performance of the dollar is "a warning shot to America that we cannot simply assume flight to quality, flight to safety," El-Erian said in the Bloomberg TV interview. "People are starting to worry about the fiscal situation in the U.S. They are starting to worry about the level of debt." The franc jumped 1.1 percent to 1.2814 versus the euro in New York trading after earlier reaching 1.2792, the strongest level since Jan. 31. "We cannot assume that we will maintain the standing of the reserve currency as we have done in the past," El-Erian added. Pimco, a unit of the Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, manages $1.24 trillion of assets as the world's biggest manager of bond funds. To contact the reporters on this story: Liz Capo McCormick in New York at emccormick7@bloomberg.net; Tom Keene in New York at tkeene@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net. More on the U.S. dollar: A dollar collapse could be imminent You must diversify now before it's too late The unbelievable new way Americans can escape the dollar | ||
| Precious metals expert: Why I'm buying silver at $30 Posted: 22 Feb 2011 11:45 PM PST From Jeff Clark, editor of Casey's BIG GOLD: The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It's already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying? I've read a few articles that say we should expect silver to drop to the $25 level, and one pinpointed $22. Others, of course, see bullish tea leaves for the near term and believe it's headed higher. Of those that assert silver will decline, most believe it will be temporary, though one writer claims the bull market in precious metals is over. (I think he's a holdout from the gold-is-a-bubble camp.) These authors could be right about a near-term decline, but I'm less concerned with what the price does this month or even the next few months, and more focused on where it's likely headed over the next few years. Caution: the chart ahead may cause excitement... Read full article... More on silver: Why silver will beat gold now The No. 1 reason you must own gold and silver now Why every hard-working American should be loading up on silver | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 11:30 PM PST | ||
| Russian Gold Investment Coins -10 Rouble Chervonets and 50 Rouble “George the Victorious” Posted: 22 Feb 2011 10:30 PM PST | ||
| Gold, Silver and Oil Stocks on Fire Posted: 22 Feb 2011 09:00 PM PST
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| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:28 PM PST Will GLD, SLV, COMEX, And LBMA Get Drained Of Physical Metals? "The contact out of London has updated King World News on the massive Asian buyers which have been accumulating both gold and silver. The London source stated, "What we've been talking about for the past few months, the Asians, particularly the Chinese buying staggering amounts of physical gold has just gone into the mainstream media. The Financial Times was months behind King World News in reporting this (news)." "The Asians, particularly the Chinese, want physical gold and they want it tomorrow. So the Chinese have a new method. They are now planning to buy tremendous amounts of the ETF GLD. They will then tender the GLD shares for immediate delivery of the gold. This by-passes all of the rules in places such as the Comex limiting delivery. There is no limit as to how much you can buy from the ETF GLD." (Editor: GLD supply limits amounts). "Mainstream media and some pundits have been pointing to draw-downs in GLD and saying there is liquidation of tonnage and that it is bearish for gold. They are ignorant and don't understand what is happening is large buyers are tendering shares for delivery, and this is extremely bullish for the gold market. This gets around the delays, delivery problems and any form of limitation. The Asian entities are essentially looking for ways to get hold of physical gold because they are having trouble procuring gold in large quantities." "Those short of gold have been trying for some time to cap the price of gold. As far as the price of gold, it has not yet taken-off to the upside, but it is just a matter of time before the paper market is overwhelmed by these physical purchases. Keep in mind these paper games are allowing the Asians to buy at lower levels so they are not complaining. We have made our lows in both gold and silver and all dips should be bought going forward." "When asked about silver the source responded, "There is no metal. Asia as you know has opened the market to the retail public and there are massive fresh new orders to buy both silver and gold coming out of Asia. There is going to be pressure on the only source available to meet Comex demand. By the way, these sovereign sources through their buyers can also purchase shares in SLV and stand for delivery, and it is possible you may see that in the future. We will have to wait and see." "The bottom line as King World News has been reporting is that the massive buying out of Asia will continue in the gold market. The Asians also have a huge appetite for silver which is an extremely tight market. It will be interesting to see how the paper markets trade in the next few months with the tremendous physical demand in both metals." -Eric King-King World News 2-7-11         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:21 PM PST Image:  The rest of today's reading material is all precious metals related in form or another. The first is a King World News blog where Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry states that the short squeeze in silver is on...and can't be averted by increased mine production as the metal increasingly is targeted as a monetary asset, as the manipulators are getting overrun. It's a short read...and worth your time. Linked read more | ||
| U.S. housing data may have understated extent of collapse-report says Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:21 PM PST Image:  This next story is a Reuters piece that was sent to me by reader Charley Orr. The National Association of Realtors is examining the possibility that the data it releases, underestimated the collapse of the housing industry. They may have over-counted home sales dating as far back as 2007. This is worth skimming. Link here. | ||
| Massive 5,663,804 Ounces of Silver Withdrawn From SLV Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:21 PM PST Rich Indian farmers now buy silver bars, not jewellery. Counterfeit coins from China turning up in Washington state. Interviews with Pierre Lassonde and John Embry...and much more. ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverTuesday's high gold price [around $1,411 spot] came about two hours after trading began in the Far East. From that high, gold slid to its low of the day, around $1,393 spot, which was close to the London a.m. gold fix at 10:30 a.m. GMT. Gold then rose back up to unchanged by 11:15 a.m. in New York before getting sold off about ten bucks. From there it traded sideways into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Not much to see here.
To say that the silver price was 'volatile' yesterday, would be an understatement. For the first half of the trading day, silver pretty much followed the same flight path as gold...with the high [around $34.40 spot] and low [around $32.40 spot] coming almost at the same time as gold's high and low. That's a two dollar intraday move! From silver's low in London, the price rose about a dollar until 9:30 a.m. in New York before the price got smacked for almost 70 cents in less than an hour...then rising over 60 cents in the following fourty-five minutes. Then silver got sold back down 60 cents by 1:00 p.m...before rising 50 cents by 2:00 p.m. Eastern in electronic trading. What a rollercoaster ride! As silver analyst Ted Butler said in his weekend commentary...which I quoted in this column yesterday..."we must be prepared for increased price volatility. That means sharp price movements both up and down." Yep, that pretty much sums up Tuesday's trading day in silver. I'll discuss silver backwardation in 'The Wrap'.
Gold was only down 0.54% on the day...and silver down 2.51%. But platinum got smoked for 3.36%...and palladium got thumped by 6.43%. Silver's intraday move was in the 6% range. A lot of the grains...along with cotton...were locked limit down yesterday...but oil was up a bunch. As I mentioned yesterday, the dollar blasted off around 7:00 p.m. New York time on Monday night...which was early Tuesday morning in the Far East. By the time the dollar reached its zenith around 8:30 a.m. in London...it was up about 60 basis point. Then it proceeded to lose 70 basis points by 11:30 a.m. in New York before recovering into the close. One would have to be dreaming in Technicolor to find any correlation between the precious metals prices and the world's reserve currency action yesterday.
The gold stocks came roaring out of the gate at the beginning of equity trading in New York yesterday. However, a combination of a declining gold price, plus a big drop in the Dow saw a large chunk of those gains disappear by the end of the trading day in New York at 4:00 p.m. The silver stocks blasted off to the moon at the open yesterday, only to fall back as the day wore on. But, for the most part, a lot of them seriously outperformed their golden counterparts.
The CME's Delivery Report showed that 141 gold along with 30 silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow. All the 'usual suspects' were involved...and the link to the action is here. The GLD ETF reported another withdrawal yesterday. This time it was 156,086 troy ounces. But over at the SLV ETF there was a massive drawdown...as a knee-wobbling 5,663,804 troy ounces were shipped out the door. Obviously the silver was desperately needed elsewhere...maybe the Comex for March deliveries next week? We'll find that out soon enough. The U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday. They sold 1,500 ounces of gold eagles...along with a very chunky 777,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 76,500 ounces of gold eagles, along with 2,599,500 silver eagles. Up here in Edmonton, I can report that my coin guy is selling silver hand over fist...and delivery times for just about everything is a month, or longer. The other thing that I've noticed over there is the type of buyer that's starting to show up more and more frequently...and that's the new buyer...the first-timers. You know that the bullion banks are done for when the buyers on the margin start to show up. The Comex-approved depositories reported that a very small 16,370 troy ounces of silver were withdrawn from their collective warehouses on Friday. One thing that I forgot to report over the weekend was the January update to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation's gold reserves. They updated their numbers on Friday...and for the first time since December 2009, they did not add a single ounce of gold to their reserves...which currently sits at 25.4 million ounces. No need to post the graph for that.
¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeFederal, state and local debt hits post-WWII levelsToday's first story is from the Sunday edition of The Washington Post...and was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau. The daunting tower of national, state and local debt in the United States will reach a level this year unmatched just after World War II and already exceeds the size of the entire economy, according to government estimates. Link here.  U.S. housing data may have understated extent of collapse-report saysThis next story is a Reuters piece that was sent to me by reader Charley Orr. The National Association of Realtors is examining the possibility that the data it releases, underestimated the collapse of the housing industry. They may have over-counted home sales dating as far back as 2007. This is worth skimming. Link here.  Madman Is Wanted to Fill Europe's Job From HellWashington state reader S.A. is next with this piece that's posted over at businessweek.com. It's sort of a 'help wanted' ad. The job comes with a nice office and a grand title. You would probably have a pretty generous expense account. And there may well be a lucrative consulting gig with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. when it is all over. Even so, you would have to be bordering on insanity to accept the role of European Central Bank president...starting this October...as it's a job from hell. The euro crisis is getting worse. You will be asked to achieve the impossible. You will have zero independence. And the chances are that you will wind up being remembered as the person who presided over one of the biggest monetary failures in history. Link here.  Return to the Drachma? Economists Warn Greece May Have to Quit EuReader Roy Stephens provides our next read of the day. It's a posting from over at the German website spiegel.de. Greece's debts are rising rapidly despite radical austerity measures. Now a group of leading European economists has warned that creditors might have to write off more than 30 percent of their loans. Greece might even have to reintroduce the drachma to overcome its debt crisis, they argue. Link here.  Flashpoint in the Gulf: Tiny Bahrain Poses Big Headache for the WestRoy has two more stories today...both of them about Bahrain, but from two different sources. The first is from the spiegel.de website. The Arab revolution has reached the tiny Gulf state of Bahrain, where Sunni rulers control a majority Shiite population. Western nations are following the protests with concern: If the unrest spreads to the Shiite minority in neighboring Saudi Arabia, it could affect the world's most important oil-producing region. The map is worth the trip alone. Link here.  All eyes on Bahrain as Gulf tremors frighten oil marketsThe second story on Bahrain is seen through the eyes of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph yesterday. Oil analysts are paying very close attention to fast-moving events in Bahrain, fearing that clashes between the island's Sunni elite and an aggrieved Shi'ite majority could embroil the two Gulf giants of Iran and Saudi Arabia. This is also worth the read. Link here.  Interview with John EmbryThe rest of today's reading material is all precious metals related in form or another. The first is a King World News blog where Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist John Embry states that the short squeeze in silver is on...and can't be averted by increased mine production as the metal increasingly is targeted as a monetary asset, as the manipulators are getting overrun. It's a short read...and worth your time. Linked here.  Rich farmers now buy silver bars, not jewelleryOver to India now...and I thank reader Donna Badach for this wonderful piece from today's edition of the economictimes.indiatimes.com website. Rural India is opening a new chapter in personal finance. Instead of jewellery and utensils, farmers are celebrating their rich pickings from high crop prices by buying traditional favourite silver in coins and bars as the precious metal touches a 30-year top of Rs 50,000 per kilo. This is real bad news for JPMorgan et al. It's is an absolute must read...and is linked here. | ||
| Interview with Pierre Lassonde, Chairman of Franco-Nevada Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:21 PM PST Image:  The European Union may collapse and gold well may reach $1,500 or more this year, mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde tells King World News. Pierre also talks about the ongoing short squeeze in silver. The interview is about 19 minutes long...and is linked here. | ||
| Gold and Silvers Daily Review for February 23rd, 2011 Posted: 22 Feb 2011 08:00 PM PST | ||
| Silver Train Is A Coming Are You Onboard Posted: 22 Feb 2011 07:11 PM PST
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| Why are Gold & Silver Breaking Out? Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:50 PM PST | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:48 PM PST
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| Silver "Disconnected from Gold" as Middle East Turmoil Hits Equities, Oil Rises Again Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:38 PM PST | ||
| The Role of US Debt in the Current Revolution Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:26 PM PST Cereal Wars…and Zombie Wars… Hey, how 'bout that Ben Bernanke… He's a freedom fighter! Look what he's done to North Africa! Seems like every time we pick up the paper another dictator is toppling over. Where does it lead, we wonder? What would a world be like without dictators? Without them, who will the CIA and the State Department give our money to? On the run this morning (but not quite given up) is Muammar Gaddafi of Libya. Wait… Is this guy a friend or an enemy? We can't remember. Wasn't he a bad guy a few years ago? But recently we've heard that he is a good guy. He's helped with the War on Terror. And he sells oil. Friend or foe, we don't know…but whatever he is, he's beginning to look past tense. As of this morning, reports say he's lost control of Libya's second largest city. His troops are firing on protesters in the capital, where he and his loyal guards are holed up in a few government buildings. His son vows to fight back. He says there will be "rivers of blood" before he gives up. That "rivers of blood" image was used by Enoch Powell in Britain fifty years ago. It came from Virgil's Aeneid, in which a character foresees "wars, terrible wars, and the Tiber foaming with much blood." Powell was referring to the effects of immigration into Britain from Africa and elsewhere. He thought he saw race wars and power struggles coming as a result. But the younger Gaddafi uses the language as a threat, not a prophecy. Still, it didn't do Powell much good. Maybe Gaddafi will have better luck with it. Most likely, he'll high tail it out of the country before the blood is his own. That will bring to three the number of regime changes in the last few weeks. Which leads us to ask: what's up? The answer comes from our old friend, Jim Davidson. He pins the revolutions on Ben Bernanke. Behind the popular discontent is neither the desire for liberty nor the appeal of elections. It's food. And behind soaring food prices is Ben Bernanke. The Arab world is a model Malthusian disaster, says Davidson. Populations have ballooned. Food production has not. Which makes Arab countries the biggest importers of cereals in the world. And when the price of food goes up, the masses rise up too. From Jim's latest newsletter, Strategic Investment:
Well, how do you like that, Dear Reader? All those billions of dollars spent propping up dictators – $70 billion was the cost of supporting Hosni Mubarak in Egypt alone – and then the Fed comes along and knocks them down. The Fed lowers the cost of money so speculators can borrow below the rate of inflation. And then it prints up trillions more – just to top up the worlds' money supply. Is it any wonder food prices rise? Imagine you're a farmer…or a speculator. You can sell food. Or you can hold it in storage. You know the food is valuable. You know the world has more and more mouths to feed everyday. You know food production is limited. And you know Ben Bernanke can print up an unlimited number of dollars. What do you do? Do you sell immediately? Or drag your feet…holding onto your valuable grain as the price hits new highs? Davidson continues:
Today, Libya. Tomorrow…Yemen? Or Saudi Arabia. In North Africa, Cereal Revolutions… In North America, Zombie Wars… Yes, the battle rages in the Dairy State. And yes, Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman (Economics!) has no idea what is going on: It's "not about the budget. It's about power." He thinks it is a battle between the rich and powerful, whom he calls the "oligarchy," and the decent lumpenproletariat on the other. Wisconsin's governor is trying to bust the union, says Krugman, so that the elite can ride roughshod over poor government workers, cut their pay, and reduce their benefits (thereby downsizing the state's budget deficit). It's not about money, says the New York Times columnist. He's wrong, as usual. The Zombie Wars are always about money. There is less money available and more zombies who want it. In the present case, rather than hire honest people to work at market rates…Krugman wants the state to be forced to deal with a privileged union. Union zombies should bargain with government zombies, he says. Together, in cooperation, not in conflict, they should figure out how to rip off the taxpayer. Stay tuned…the Zombie Wars are just beginning. Regards, Bill Bonner | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:20 PM PST --Pay no attention to the rising oil price! Move along. There's nothing to see here. That's it...just move right along to the next note. Thank you...please keep moving...now...please. --The oil price certainly got moving overnight. New York crude futures put on 8.6% at one point in U.S. trading. West Texas Intermediate hasn't caught up with Brent crude, which is still trading around $108. But it's a warning sign: when a large global exporter of oil devolves into civil war, it puts a premium on reliable energy supplies. --Not everyone is worried, mind you. John Lipsky from the International Monetary fund told Bloomberg, "It's unlikely it [the higher oil price] would make a substantial change in the global economic outlook." The IMF reckoned the global economy would grow by 4.4% this year with oil prices averaging $95 a barrel, or just above where Nymex crude closed on Tuesday. --Maybe the laws of economics are different on Planet Lipsky. But here on Planet Reckoning, when producers and consumers must pay more for energy, it means they have less to spend on cheeseburgers, blue jeans, iPhones, and tickets to Lady Gaga concerts. Higher energy prices slow down growth, full stop. --Because of space and time limitations in the Daily Reckoning, we can only ever give you a superficial analysis of the energy market. Fear not! We're going to break with tradition and write a more detailed analysis of the energy market, from a geopolitical perspective. But not today. Look for it on the weekend. --Also, our securities analyst extraordinaire Greg Canavan happens to be in St Kilda today. He tells us he's completed a balance sheet review of the four largest energy companies in Australia. His report on how they stack up is going out later today to readers of Sound Money. Sound Investments. Early next week we'll have more to tell you about it. --For now, feast your eyes on the chart below. It shows oil (the black line) and copper (the red line) marching down the aisle of prosperity hand in hand, cheek by jowl, over the last three years. But ever since autocrats started toppling in the Middle East, oil's had cold feet. Or is it hot feet? Either way, the oil price has spiked while the copper price has noticeably come off its all-time highs. Oil and Copper take a break from each other --The Stock Doctor (Diggers and Drillers editor Dr. Alex Cowie) is busily finishing his latest report today. So we couldn't dig an answer out of him about what he thinks this chart is telling you. But we'll have a crack. It's telling you to beware benign GDP forecasts. When oil goes up and copper goes down, it's a negative indicator. --Will it persist? That depends on how big the oil shock is. And THAT depends on other, more political factors, which is why we're analysing the issue more fully for you on the weekend. Stay tuned. --Chapeau (hat tip) to the Stock Doc, by the way. Today's Australian reports that tight inventories on the London Metals Exchange have driven tin prices to record levels. Tin in the spot market has nearly doubled from $16,000 per tonne in June of last year to over $30,000/tonne last month. --In August and September of last year, Alex doubled up on the tin story with two recommendations. Both are still open positions and both are up around 40%. He began his exposition on the dynamics of the tin market thusly: I want to introduce you to one of the most overlooked metals in the commodity complex this month. On a price basis, it's been a star performer. Yet it doesn't attract much attention at all. That's just that I way I like it though. It gives you a chance to take a good look at the dynamics of the market without rushing. In this case, the dynamics are very strong. The supply side is constrained; a situation that tends to put upward pressure on prices. The demand side is strong too. The recent price action tells this story well. If you're able to find a low-cost producer of a metal with these kinds of dynamics—and you're able to buy that company before it's been fully 'de-risked'—then you have a chance to make very large gains as the company moves closer to production. As I'll show you now, I think this is exactly the opportunity you have this month's recommendation which is a small company with big plans. --Emphasis added is ours, in order to show you Alex's modus operandi when researching Australian resource stocks. We can't say what he's writing about this month. Last time we even mentioned the sector he was investigating; there was a flurry of speculation (and buying) on popular share tipping message boards. But D&D readers should find out the latest by the end of the week. --"Why do you publish the letters of people who criticise you?" a friend asked over dinner last night. "It seems like a bad idea." --"Why?" --"Because. You openly allow someone to ridicule your business model and personally challenge your credibility." --"So what?" --"Well, aren't you worried?" --"About what?" --"About...what people will think?" --"No." --"Why not?" --"Because...people are going to think whatever they're going to think. All we can control is the quality of our work. And there's no hiding in our business model. We only stay in business if enough people think our work is valuable." --"Please explain." --"Well, we make forecasts and predictions. They are either wrong or right. We pick stocks. They either go up or down. People lose money or make money. It's totally transparent and unambiguous. Our only source of revenue is subscription income. If our readers were unhappy with the quality of our investment ideas, or thought we were conducting business in a dishonourable way, we'd go of business. Word would get out. No one would trust us." --"Okay. But why give space in your publication to people who don't like your ideas?" --"Because it's good for business. The sooner that someone realises they don't want another perspective on the world, the sooner we can both stop wasting time. What we do isn't for everybody. It's not designed to be for everybody. The newspaper is designed to be for everybody. We're not a newspaper. We're a newsletter, written by real people who are not objective and trying to be neutral. We're not reporting the news. We're trying to tell you about the stories WE think matter in the financial world that could make or lose you a lot of money." --"That sounds risky. If you're wrong you'll look stupid." --"Of course taking a well-researched position is risky. But life is risky. You can't de-risk it no matter how hard you try. So if you're going to be in the investment markets and take risk, you might as well go in with your eyes wide open and find some advantage over everyone else. That's what we're after." --"Why didn't you just tell him that?" --"Good idea." Similar Posts: | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:00 PM PST | ||
| 5 Dollar Gas? Get Ready To Pay An Arm And A Leg For Gasoline Posted: 22 Feb 2011 02:39 PM PST 
Right now the eyes of the world are on Libya. Libya is the 17th largest oil producer on the globe and it has the biggest proven oil reserves on the continent of Africa. Libya only produces 2 percent of the oil in the world, but with global supplies so tight at the moment even a minor production disruption can have a dramatic impact on the price of oil. Before this crisis, Libya was producing approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. Now the rest of the world is wondering what may happen if revolution spreads to other major oil producing nations such as Kuwait (2.5 million barrels of oil per day) or Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia produces 8.4 million barrels of oil a day. It produces more oil than anyone else in OPEC. If revolution strikes in Saudi Arabia and a major production disruption happens it could be catastrophic for the global economy. David Rosenberg, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, is warning that if there is major civil unrest in Saudi Arabia we could end up seeing oil go up to $200 a barrel....
200 dollar oil? Don't laugh - it could happen. In fact, if it does happen the global economy would probably go into cardiac arrest. The truth is that if the flow of oil from Saudi Arabia gets disrupted there is not enough spare capacity from the rest of the globe to make up for it. Paul Horsnell, the head of oil research at Barclays Capital, recently said that the world does not currently have enough spare capacity to be able to guarantee that an oil "price shock" will not happen....
Horsnell also said that even in the midst of potential supply problems, the global demand for oil continues to grow at a very robust pace....
For now, Saudi officials are saying all the right things. They say that there will be no revolution in Saudi Arabia and that there are not going to be any supply problems. For example, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi recently announced that the rest of the world should not worry because his country is definitely going to be able to make up for any shortage in the global supply of oil....
But what happens if revolution comes to Saudi Arabia? Suddenly the whole game would change. But even with a peaceful Saudi Arabia the price of gasoline in the United States is already rising to alarming levels. The average price of gasoline in the United States reached $3.14 a gallon last week. This closely mirrors what happened back in 2008. Three years ago at this time the average price of gasoline was right around $3.13 a gallon. Let's certainly hope that we don't see a repeat of what happened to oil prices back in mid-2008. The price of oil reached an all-time record of $147 a barrel and gas prices in the United States absolutely skyrocketed. So how high will the price of gas in the U.S. go in 2011? We haven't even come close to 4 dollar gas yet, but a large number of analysts believe that it is coming this summer. Is there even a possibility that we could see 5 dollar gas in America at some point in the next couple of years? Well, there are some in the oil industry that are convinced that it could actually happen. Just consider the following quotes.... Darin Newsom, senior analyst at energy tracker DTN....
Peter Beutel, president of energy adviser Cameron Hanover....
John Hofmeister, the former president of Shell Oil, on his belief that we could see 5 dollar gas by 2012....
So why is everyone so concerned about gas prices? Well, because it affects the price of almost everything else in the economy. David Wyss, the chief economist at Standard & Poor's, says that every extra dollar that is spent on gasoline is a dollar that will not be spent somewhere else....
Not only that, but when gasoline costs more it has a negative effect on economic growth. Almost all economic activities involve the use of oil in one form or another. When the price of oil starts getting really high it motivates people to start cutting back on many of those activities. The truth is that our whole economic system is based on the ability to use massive amounts of very cheap oil. Now that the price of oil is rapidly rising again, many economists are becoming very alarmed. Nobuo Tanaka, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, recently told CNBC that his organization is extremely concerned about what high oil prices could do to the global economy....
So what was so bad about 2008? Well, the price of oil soared to $147 a barrel in mid-2008 and this was a huge factor in the financial collapse that happened a few months later. Now oil prices are returning to levels that we have not seen since 2008....
So if the price of oil breaks the all-time record this year will we see another global financial crisis? It is hard to say. But what almost everyone agrees on is that it will not be good for the global economy at all. In addition, a higher price for oil will also have a huge impact on the trade deficit. Because oil prices were at such a high level back in 2008, oil imports actually made up almost 50 percent of the U.S. trade deficit that year. In 2010, the U.S. trade deficit was just a whisker under $500 billion. If the price of oil gets up to 140 or 150 dollars a barrel we could easily see the U.S. trade deficit explode to 700 or 800 billion dollars in 2011. That would be really, really bad for the U.S. economy. So where are oil prices going next? Well, if you could predict that with 100 percent certainty you could make a whole lot of money. Nobody knows for sure. But almost everyone believes that the price of oil is going to go up. In fact, a lot number of investors have been making some very large bets that the price of oil is going to go up very significantly this year. Recently, large numbers of investors have been betting that the price of oil will rise to $125 a barrel by May. Shockingly, some investors have even been betting that the price of oil will rise to $250 a barrel by next December. Let us hope that the price of oil does not rise that rapidly, but as the past couple of months have demonstrated, the world is becoming a very unstable place. Just about anything is possible at this point. If the price of oil rises significantly above $100 a barrel and it stays there for an extended period of time, it is going to be absolutely devastating for the U.S. economy. So what do you all think is going to happen to the price of oil in 2011? Please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts below.... | ||
| Dissecting the last Wynter Benton Message, and Why I think WB et al is full of shit Posted: 22 Feb 2011 02:17 PM PST Okay I'm about to put an end to MY theory on Wynter Benton. I'm sure people have their theories on me too, but I don't write shit like this (below). Here is the last message, and why I think its fucking ridiculous. "We would like to thank everyone that gave us a chance to help them with their silver investment but we have decided that this is the right time to bid farewell. After all what better | ||
| PART B silver open interest still very high..Libya in a mess!! Posted: 22 Feb 2011 01:47 PM PST | ||
| Get ready for Ag Rockets because I sold some silver today Posted: 22 Feb 2011 01:40 PM PST The last time I needed FRNs, spot Ag was $17.50; that was September 2010. Today spot was $33. Are you ready for $60 spot? Here is a good-bye photo of the rounds I dumped today: | ||
| Jeff Clark – Why I'm Buying Silver At $30 Posted: 22 Feb 2011 11:41 AM PST Why I'm Buying Silver at $30 The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It's already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So, is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying? I've read a few articles that say we should expect silver to drop to the $25 level, and one pinpointed $22. Others, of course, see bullish tea leaves for the near term and believe it's headed higher. Of those that assert silver will decline, most believe it will be temporary, though one writer claims the bull market in precious metals is over (I think he's a holdout from the gold-is-a-bubble camp). These authors could be right about a near-term decline, but I'm less concerned with what the price does this month or even the next few months, and more focused on where it's likely headed over the next few years. Caution: the chart ahead may cause excitement. While there are lots of reasons to be bullish on silver, what everyone really wants to know is how high the price can go. Here's one hint, based strictly on historical price performance.
Silver rose an incredible 3,646% from the November 1971 low of $1.32 to its January 21, 1980 high of $49.45 (London PM fix prices). Our current advance, through February 4, is 596%. At $30, silver would have to climb over five times to match the last great bull market. If it did, the price would hit $160.89 per ounce (from its bottom of $4.295 on March 30, 2001). You'll also notice silver has a record of outperforming gold in these two bull markets. In spite of the price dropping 26.9% in 2008 (while gold gained 5%), the metal has outrun its yellow cousin by 38.6% since their respective lows in 2001. Gold advanced 2,333% in the 1970s; it's currently up 430%. If it matched the last run, the price would hit $6,227.26 per ounce, a return of four-and-a-half times the gold you buy today. From solely a historical price perspective, the chart certainly suggests we've got a long way to go with both metals. The question is if the fundamentals support such price advances (show me a healthy dollar and no threat of inflation, and we'll talk), but my point for the moment is that there is an established precedence for the price of these metals to climb much higher. And just as important, to keep one's eye on the big picture. So, yes, I'm buying silver at $30, in part because I think the potential for enormous gains is high. However, I'll add that I'm not draining my cash account to do so. I think it's important for the precious metals investor to always be in the game, but given silver's volatility and the precarious nature of most markets right now, prudence suggests we keep some powder dry as well. Let's say one of the soothsayers noted above is correct and silver temporarily falls to $25. If you snag it at that level, your endgame return would be 543%, vs. the 436% gain from $30 (excluding premiums and storage costs). That's more than another 100% gain on your original investment. But how does one buy silver not knowing if the price will plummet or soar? For example, silver could take off from these levels, never to see $30 again, leaving those of you waiting for a sell-off out of the market. Or it could sink to $25, making investors who went all in now regret they didn't wait for a better price. Or it could trade sideways until, say, next fall, leaving both parties uncertain and on the sidelines. In my opinion, there's a one-word answer to the question. It solves all dilemmas – it keeps you in the market, while simultaneously letting you buy at lower prices if that occurs. It lets you build your position bigger and bigger without the worry of whether you're getting a good price. That one-word verb is, accumulate. Or in the vernacular made popular in the '80s by the financial planning community, dollar cost average. In other words, buy a little now, buy a little next month, etc., until you have a position sufficient in size to fight off inflation and any other economic woe we're likely to encounter over the next few years. So my advice is, buy, hold, repeat. Because if our silver market ends up looking anything like that left bar in the chart, you may regret not having bought at $30, too. ~Jeff Clark, Casey Research | ||
| Posted: 22 Feb 2011 10:49 AM PST Dennis Miller interviews Thomas Woods: Tom Woods on "The Dennis Miller Show" By Matt Hawes Earlier this week, C4L contributor and New York Times bestselling author Tom Woods was interviewed on The Dennis Miller Show concerning the debt dilemma and his latest book, Rollback: Repealing Big Government Before the Coming Fiscal Collapse. Tom gives an excellent interview, and [...] This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Silver Raid Coming, She's out of Options, March is like Next week Posted: 22 Feb 2011 10:36 AM PST COMEX NEWS: Gold: -Huge surge in volume today (anything over 200K contracts is considered unnatural and an indication that unbacked paper was in play today) -1,132,100 left standing in Feb. -GLD drops 4.86 tonnes of gold (LOL, I'm literally on the floor here with this stat) Silver: -OI front month still increasing (metal needed) -166K volume today is very high (unbacked shorts again) -2,535,000 | ||
| Where are the Baby-Boomer Nest Eggs? Posted: 22 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST Can one "invest" one's way to prosperity? Some people are very good at stock picking and others can use Austrian business cycle analysis to generally figure out what side of the market to be on during its great turnings (gold and silver would seem to be appropriate for now). But most people have no more success picking stocks or generally investing than they do with other parts of regulatory capitalism. |
An assortment of briefly annotated charts (below the jump).
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