saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- Shorting the Dollar
- Marcus Grubb: Gold Demand Driven by East/West Divide
- Thoughts on the Rally
- ETF FONE Home: First Trust Introduces Smart Phone ETF
- India Markets Friday Wrap-Up: No Relief From Pressure to Sell
- Inflation Scorecard: Gold Bounces Back
- Can the Middle East “Revolutions” Affect the Gold Price ?
- Update: The huge move in Chinese stocks is approaching
- Sun on Our Face, Wind At Our Back, Silver Surges
- Gold "Could Easily Break $1500" as Silver Hits New 31-Year Highs
- Stock Selloffs Ignite Dollar Rallies
- Look! Gold and Silver Company Warrants Dramatically Outperform Gold Bullion and Gold Miner Stocks
- Forget Gold Bullion! Those in the Know Own Silver & Gold Miner Warrants
- This little-known "con" could unleash a silver buying frenzy
- BUSTED: Fox News fraudulently attacks Ron Paul
- Silver Exploding - Gold Silver Ratio Nears 30-Year Lows
- Silver Restraint
- Is This Silver Breakout For Real?
- Blue 32 ~ HIKE !
- Home Invaders Take $750,000 In Silver.
- New KITCO Widget for Android Phones...
- Bond Markets Are Washing Away In A Huge Waterfall
- Man stabbed in robbery of $750,000 in silver bars
- Silver and Opium
- Why I'm Buying Silver at $30
- Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One"
- Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One."
- Gold’s Bull Market
- Extreme Silver Analysis - Why $50 is Next
- SLV Anomolies Part 3 - Someone is buying ITM 2013 Calls
- Are The Wild Teacher Protests In Wisconsin A Prelude To The Economic Riots That Are Coming To America?
- Silver Blasts Higher, Constantine and Timberline News
- PM ads . . .
- Global Inflation Rising & Other Pro-Gold Developments
- Flight # BLYH/JPM666,Silver ticket TO THE MOON
- Metals Rally Continues as Dollar, ETFs Slip
- Gold will Outperform after Stocks Peak
- Manufacturers Begin To Stockpile Precious Metals.
- Government Spending to Perpetuate Fiscal Insanity
- Today’s Best Investment…Rhymes With Pickles
- Massive Riots in Many Arab countries/silver explodes/
- Calculating the Misery of Inflation
- GEAB N°52 ist angekommen! Umfassende weltweite Krise / Zerfall der Welt – und öffentlichen Ordnung – Jahresende 2011: Fall der « Petrodollar-Mauer »; USA vor enormen Finanz- und Erdölversorgungsproblemen
- Middle East Issues, 6 month Old Video
| Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:59 AM PST HiddenLevers submits: With seemingly endless budget deficits and the trade deficit again rising, many investors are looking to play against the dollar. While it's become easier than ever to play the forex market directly, investing directly in currencies isn't for everyone. Currency ETFs like FXE, FXC, and others are another choice – but ETFs can suffer from fees and tracking error over time. Can an investor short the dollar by playing the right stocks, and if so, how to find them? Here's a chart of a company that few think of as a dollar short play: (Chart created using Hidden Levers app) With 70% of its revenue coming from overseas, Oracle (ORCL) has a strong inverse correlation with the dollar. If the dollar plunges, Oracle's bottom line improves, as does the bottom line of other major U.S. exporters. Here are two more companies (one is an ADR) which Complete Story » | ||
| Marcus Grubb: Gold Demand Driven by East/West Divide Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:50 AM PST Hard Assets Investor submits: By Julian Murdoch As we covered yesterday, the nature of demand in the gold market is in flux . Emerging market consumers, not Western buyers, currently drive the bulk of jewelry and physical bullion purchases. Meanwhile, investors in the U.S. have turned to gold ETFs more as trading vehicles than stores of value. Demand has evolved — even from quarter to quarter. Marcus Grubb is the managing director of investment for the World Gold Council, where he leads both investment research and product innovation, as well as marketing efforts surrounding gold's role as an asset class. Grubb has more than 20 years' experience in global banking, including expertise in stocks, swaps and derivatives. After the release of the World Gold Council's quarterly Gold Demand Trends survey, Hard Assets Investor spoke with Grubb to get more details on the particulars of some of the report's more surprising conclusions. Julian Murdoch (Hard Assets Complete Story » | ||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:47 AM PST Calafia Beach Pundit submits: The rather spectacular rally in equity prices since March '09 continues. As we close in on the pre-recession highs in the stock market, I think it's important to stress once again that one of the major causes of the economic and financial crash of 2008-09 was fear: Fear of deflation, of depression, of a collapse of the global banking system, of massive corporate bankruptcies, of a housing market meltdown, of a future with staggeringly high tax burdens, and of a significant increase in the size and burden of government. Both the VIX index and swap spreads soared in late 2008 as fear mounted. [Click to enlarge] The rally has been propelled by the diminishing likelihood that these fears will be realized. It has also been driven by Fed policy that keeps short-term interest rates near zero. When the interest rate on cash and cash subsititutes is essentially zero, then one Complete Story » | ||
| ETF FONE Home: First Trust Introduces Smart Phone ETF Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:45 AM PST Ron Rowland submits: First Trust introduced a new ETF targeting the rapidly growing global smart phone industry. First Trust NASDAQ CEA Smart phone Index Fund (FONE) includes stocks of companies primarily involved in design, fabrication and distribution of handsets, along with hardware, software and mobile networks associated with the development, sale, and usage of the devices. The Consumer Electronics Association, the CEA part of the fund's name, is responsible for identifying the companies engaged in the smart phone industry. A smart phone is classified as "a wireless, mobile communication device offering advanced capabilities and functionalities, including web access, through the use of an identifiable operating system." The NASDAQ OMX CEA Smart phone Index is a modified equal dollar weighted index with 45% allocated to handsets, 45% allocated to software applications and hardware components, and 10% allocated to network providers. Stocks within each business segment are equal-weighted, so the fund's largest holdings at any Complete Story » | ||
| India Markets Friday Wrap-Up: No Relief From Pressure to Sell Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:17 AM PST Equitymaster submits: After opening on a strong note in the morning session, the Indian indices thereon were unable to hold on to their gains as selling pressure pushed them into the red. There was no respite in the final trading hour as well and the markets closed well below the dotted line. While the BSE-Sensex closed lower by around 295 points (down 2%), the NSE-Nifty closed lower by around 88 points (down 2%). The BSE Midcap and the BSE Small cap were not spared either as they raked losses of 2% each. Losses were largely seen in auto and oil & gas stocks. Complete Story » | ||
| Inflation Scorecard: Gold Bounces Back Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:11 AM PST Hard Assets Investor submits: By Brad Zigler Bullion squared off against the world's reserve currencies this week and took the round. The yen suffered most, losing 2.3 percent to gold. The euro fell 2.0 percent, while sterling slipped 1.1 percent. The Swiss franc inched 0.7 percent lower. On the dollar front, for the week ending Thursday:
Complete Story » | ||
| Can the Middle East “Revolutions” Affect the Gold Price ? Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:00 AM PST | ||
| Update: The huge move in Chinese stocks is approaching Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:38 AM PST From dshort.com: ... On January 20, I shared that even though the Shanghai Index had been doing poorly of late.. the index was touching support on a giant flag pattern at 2,677. Now the index has rallied over 9% and finds itself within 3% of falling resistance — the top of the flag. Flags aren't very good about suggesting whether a breakout or breakdown will take place. But if history remains the same, a huge move will be the result... Read full article (with chart)... More on China: Chinese stocks are about to make a HUGE move Donald Trump: China is "looking to strip us of everything" This startling Chinese gold development has "stunned" precious metals traders | ||
| Sun on Our Face, Wind At Our Back, Silver Surges Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:37 AM PST Just a quick little update here. How do you spell, stratosphere? Or moon? Or Rocket? Got the text from contact 20 minutes before Margin increase, every time I need to post something I'm on the road...oh well. I still called it! Here's some friday afternoon humor, as if she's not already completely fucked. I will have a full metals update tomorrow. Drink some beers tonight, come Sunday, | ||
| Gold "Could Easily Break $1500" as Silver Hits New 31-Year Highs Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:21 AM PST | ||
| Stock Selloffs Ignite Dollar Rallies Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:17 AM PST | ||
| Look! Gold and Silver Company Warrants Dramatically Outperform Gold Bullion and Gold Miner Stocks Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:13 AM PST The world of warrants is the best kept investment secret around. No one seems to realize that long-term (LT) gold and silver warrants were up 140% and 92%, respectively, in 2009 and 2010 in U. S. dollar terms. Investment and financial writers go on and on about gold being such a great investment these days but gold was up "only" 24% and 30%, respectively, during the same time frame. Isn't it time investors, analysts and commentators conveyed the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth when it comes to investing in gold bullion and gold-related securities? This article will do just that! Words: 1164 | ||
| Forget Gold Bullion! Those in the Know Own Silver & Gold Miner Warrants Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:13 AM PST The world of warrants is the undiscovered constellation in the universe of securities. Long term (LT) warrants shone brightly in 2009 - up 242% in U. S. dollar terms - and were up a further 91% in U.S. dollar terms in 2010. The warrants world consists of only 135 stars (i.e. constituents) of which only 32 are associated with 29 commodity-related stocks that have sufficient brightness (i.e. 24+ months duration) to warrant (the pun is intended!) the attention of earthly investors. Words: 1581 | ||
| This little-known "con" could unleash a silver buying frenzy Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:11 AM PST From Jesse's Café Americain: | ||
| BUSTED: Fox News fraudulently attacks Ron Paul Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:57 AM PST From The Big Picture: Busted: Fox News Fakes CPAC Presidential Straw Poll Bizarre deception by Fox News, running the 2010 crowd noise booing Ron Paul’s 2011 win here. At the 4:40 mark, you can hear the actual 2011 crowd — and they cheer Ron Paul for a full minute: When reporting that Ron Paul had defeated mainstream Republican Mitt Romney in the CPAC straw poll, Fox News superimposed archive footage of people booing from last year’s event. Bonus Fox misbehavior! When a liberal blogger asked Fox News reporter Jesse Watters for comment on recent claims from an insider that the network makes stuff up, Watters ignored the question and... Read full article (with video)... More on Ron Paul: Ron Paul: Don't call Obama a socialist Ron Paul wants you to read this book now Ron Paul: How gold could save the U.S. dollar | ||
| Silver Exploding - Gold Silver Ratio Nears 30-Year Lows Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:33 AM PST HOUSTON -- A few quick notes on this getaway Friday before the 3-day President's Day weekend in the U.S.: The gold/silver ratio (GSR) dips to a 42-handle this Friday morning (currently 42.39 as we write at 12:30 ET). That is the lowest the ratio has been since April 19, 2006 when silver was being bid up ahead of the launch of the U.S. silver ETF SLV. The GSR then traded as low as 42.23 intra-day and closed at 43.64. The GSR is very close (within 20 basis points) to multi-decade lows with silver currently in the $32.50s. The graph below is a monthly chart as of yesterday's close. ... | ||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:08 AM PST Wow silvers on a ride over the last two days its making me a little nervous though. I would like to see a rest before I get to excited. Any time we have a few days of crazy rise like this we get beaten back. I would like to see it flatten out for a few days just to stabilize. I'm not seeing to many fundamental reasons for this rise and it looks mainly due to speculations. Still a few hours till close if it closes above 32.50 for the weekend I think we may have put in a new mental support level Any thoughts from the gurus ...................... | ||
| Is This Silver Breakout For Real? Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:10 AM PST Silver seems to be exceptionally good at taking as few people along for the ride as it can. This can be frustrating for silver investors, but is great for the health of the long term bull market in silver. The only way bull markets sustain themselves over the long term is to rebalance sentiment along the way, to prevent overwhelming bullishness from extinguishing the long term rally. | ||
| Posted: 18 Feb 2011 01:21 AM PST  Let's go for the TOUCHDOWN ! :five: | ||
| Home Invaders Take $750,000 In Silver. Posted: 18 Feb 2011 12:01 AM PST | ||
| New KITCO Widget for Android Phones... Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:57 PM PST Will play with this later today, but thought I'd share in case anyone else was waiting for a good mobile tool. http://applications.kitco.com/suppor...id-widget.html Don't know if it's any good or not yet.  | ||
| Bond Markets Are Washing Away In A Huge Waterfall Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:49 PM PST When we saw this 30-year bond chart on the next page, all we could think of was the gazillions of dollars going down the Federal Reserve's Sewer of QE 1,2,3,4,5 and of course TARP, which was first in line to recapitalize the crooks who blasted their companies with derivative trades. Take heart. They're doing it again with a vengeance. Our saving grace is they own their own trash and go into a Bond -land Landfill with the rest of us. So what's our next currency called; "Fiat Money" for all?
Next, Three, 30-Year Treasury Bond Charts Show Stages Of Waterfall Collapse.
Daily chart (top) from close on 2-4-11 shows long list of failures. (1) Price is under all moving averages. (2) Price has been in a skidding down-slope sell mode since last October. (3) Since Mid-December, channel trading has been sinking. (4) Finally last week, price broke down through MAJOR-MAJOR SUPPORT AT 118.50. Next stop is 115.50 support followed by 112.50; then 110.00 followed by 108.00. Below 108.00 our technicals signal a floor of 85.00. What's left between 108-85.00 Lord only knows. Bond markets are 70 times larger than stocks. Got the picture? No more money, stocks, credit or, global economic system on failed bonds.
Weekly chart (below) has powerful lower channel support at 115.50-116.50 on falling momentum (PMO-Lower Box)
Here Is The Biggie For Our Longer Term Trend. Here we see bonds from 1988 to the present. While we see a secondary up-channel support (bullish) in 2007, there is also a double top in price (bearish). Note the lower continued support line at 108.00 where we had a forecast. That is a very firm support but a far distance from the long bond price being well above 130.00. A one point move in one trading session (1 day) is considered large. The waterfall from way over 130 to 117.25 on the March most active futures today 2-7-11, is a very big hit. The worst is yet to come. The larger question is this: When will this market get into serious crack-up trouble? We think when the bond collapse begins in Japan or Europe; our two top prime candidates will crumble first. That should finish-off global bonds and credit, spreading Greater Depression II world-wide. The USA Achilles Heel is the huge, TARP replenished money center banks holding billions in US Treasury bonds for small yield. How ironic the TARP cash that saved them, will destroy them. Monthly 30-Year Treasury Chart Pattern Readies To Roll-Over And Down.
With the long bonds, nothing happens overnight; it takes years. Notice how momentum peaked in 1994 (lower box) and steadily fell all the way into 2008. When the 2008 credit crack-up occurred, momentum reversed course and began to rise. Now we see the moving averages crossing over to sell near the #4 in the lower box (right hand corner of chart)         This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Man stabbed in robbery of $750,000 in silver bars Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:33 PM PST Image:  For all of you that store some or all of your bullion within easy reach, here's a story from the Canadian newspaper the Times Colonist in Victoria, B.C. | ||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:33 PM PST Link: Image:  Lastly today is this essay posted over at the Asia Times website that was sent to me by Swiss reader G.B. It's written by Antal Fekete...and tells the story about China, silver...and opium. It's a true story which I've posted here before, but by a different author. The Opium Wars do not belong to the glorious episodes of Western history. | ||
| Why I'm Buying Silver at $30 Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:33 PM PST Image:  My first precious metals-related story is one that Casey Research's own Jeff Clark sent me yesterday. It's a short essay imbedded in yesterday's Casey's Daily Dispatch. It's headlined "Why I'm Buying Silver at $30"...and is very much worth the read. The link is here. You have to scroll down a handful of paragraphs to find it. I was a buyer yesterday, too. | ||
| Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One" Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:33 PM PST Man stabbed in robbery of $750,000 in silver bars. Silver spreads tighten more...only a hair from backwardation. SLV adds another big chunk of silver...and much more. ¤ Yesterday in Gold and SilverGold rose a few dollars during most of the Far East trading day on Thursday...but gradually lost most of what little gain there was by the London a.m. gold fix at 10:30 a.m. GMT. From that interim low, the gold price never looked back...and climbed slowly to its high of the day...which was around 3:30 p.m. in electronic trading in New York. The low of the day was around $1,374 spot, which occurred shortly after Far East trading began...and the New York high around 3:30 p.m. Eastern was $1,386.20 spot.
The star of the day was silver. The price didn't do much in Far East and early London trading...and was actually down about a dime by 12:30 p.m. in London...when the price finally began to turn upwards. The price rose slowly at first, but at 11:15 a.m. Eastern, the silver price began to rise faster, before the rally ran out of gas a few minutes after 3:00 p.m. in electronic trading in New York. From there the price traded sideways until the close at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Silver's low on Thursday was around $30.60 spot...and the high [$31.88 spot] occurred late in electronic trading in New York.
The world's reserve currency didn't do much yesterday...and closed down about 25 basis points from its Wednesday close.
The gold stocks basically tracked the gold price action...and since the gold price was only up about nine dollars, the HUI didn't do much better, closing up 0.99% on the day. Considering the silver price's stellar performance yesterday, I was rather underwhelmed at the reaction of a lot of the silver stocks...but don't want to read a thing into it at the moment.
The CME's Delivery Report showed that 58 gold and 18 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday. The link to what action there was, is here. The GLD ETF showed another decline yesterday. This time it was 48,777 ounces. The SLV ETF inventory went in the other direction...up 878,883 ounces. The U.S. Mint had it's fourth sales report in a row yesterday. They sold another 4,500 ounces of gold eagles, along with a smallish 42,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date, the mint has sold 60,000 ounces of gold eagles...along with 1,772,500 silver eagles. There wasn't a lot of in or out activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday...and they only received a net 17,364 ounces of silver...and the activity isn't worth looking at. Before starting with my stories today...here's a graph sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. It shows the relationship between the S&P500 and QE1 and QE2. As Ben Bernanke has stated on several occasions, the stock markets has to be supported...and it's obvious that the primary dealers are doing his bidding.
¤ Critical ReadsSubscribeFed Tells U.S. Banks to Test Capital for RecessionWashington state reader S.A. also has our first story of the day, which is a Bloomberg piece from yesterday. The headline reads "Fed Tells U.S. Banks to Test Capital for Recession". The Federal Reserve ordered the 19 largest U.S. banks to test their capital levels against a scenario of renewed recession with unemployment rising above 11 percent, said two people with knowledge of the review. The link is here.  Andrew Sentance steps ups rate rise campaignThe next bank-related story is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens. It's a story from The Telegraph that was filed yesterday evening in London. Andrew Sentance, one of the Bank of England's nine rate-setters, launched his fiercest attack yet on his colleagues' delay in raising interest rates, warning the Bank's official forecasts are "too optimistic" about the inflation threat. The headline reads "Andrew Sentance steps ups rate rise campaign"...and the link is here.  Bank run fears engulf savings bank industry: Officials unveil moves to end panicThere's another bank run going on in the world at the moment. This time it's in South Korea...and the story was sent to me by reader David Crofton. It's posted over at the joongangdaily.joins.com website...and the headline reads "Bank run fears engulf savings bank industry: Officials unveil moves to end panic". More than a thousand customers lined up in front of the Busan II Savings Bank located in Busan yesterday as soon as the nation's financial regulator announced a six-month business suspension of Busan Savings Bank and its affiliate Daejeon Mutual Savings Bank. The link is here.  Police use teargas and rubber bullets in raid on protestorsThe troubles in Bahrain are highlighted in this story posted over at the france24.com website. It was sent to me by Roy Stephens...and the headline reads "Police use teargas and rubber bullets in raid on protestors". Three people were killed Thursday in Bahrain's capital of Manama, after police used teargas and rubber bullets to disperse protestors camped in Pearl Square. The overnight raid brings the death toll in Bahrain's recent unrest to five. The link is here.  Why I'm Buying Silver at $30My first precious metals-related story is one that Casey Research's own Jeff Clark sent me yesterday. It's a short essay imbedded in yesterday's Casey's Daily Dispatch. It's headlined "Why I'm Buying Silver at $30"...and is very much worth the read. The link is here. You have to scroll down a handful of paragraphs to find it. I was a buyer yesterday, too.  Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One."Interviewed yesterday by King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk says all the indicators for silver are bullish and that the Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One." Excerpts from the interview can be found linked here.  Man stabbed in robbery of $750,000 in silver barsFor all of you that store some or all of your bullion within easy reach, here's a story from the Canadian newspaper the Times Colonist in Victoria, B.C. that was sent to me by reader Phil Armstrong. The headline reads "Man stabbed in robbery of $750,000 in silver bars". A man from Chilliwack says he was traumatized after he was punched, stabbed and tied up by home-invading thieves who made off with his life savings in silver bars. This is a must read by all...and the link is here.  Silver and OpiumLastly today is this essay posted over at the Asia Times website that was sent to me by Swiss reader G.B. It's written by Antal Fekete...and tells the story about China, silver...and opium. It's a true story which I've posted here before, but by a different author. The Opium Wars do not belong to the glorious episodes of Western history. Rather, they were instances of shameful behavior the West still has not lived down. I highly recommend this story as well, which is headlined "Silver and Opium"...and the link is here.  ¤ The WrapYesterday's very positive day in both metals...especially in silver...was not unexpected, considering all that's swirling around silver and gold these days. Gold volume yesterday was very light...under 100,000 contracts traded...net of all spreads. The preliminary open interest number did not warm the cockles of my heart at all. In silver, volume was immense...around 100,000 contracts net. One of the things I found of interest was the fact that March open interest is hardly declining...but open interest in May increased by many thousands of contracts. We're only seven business days away from First Day Notice for March delivery in silver...so these numbers are a bit of a surprise...and all these contracts either have to | ||
| Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One." Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:33 PM PST Image:  Interviewed yesterday by King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk says all the indicators for silver are bullish and that the Short Squeeze in Silver Could be "The Big One." Excerpts from the interview can be found linked here. | ||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:00 PM PST | ||
| Extreme Silver Analysis - Why $50 is Next Posted: 17 Feb 2011 04:57 PM PST | ||
| SLV Anomolies Part 3 - Someone is buying ITM 2013 Calls Posted: 17 Feb 2011 01:51 PM PST Looking through some data and came across this. Looks like someone has a hard on for 2013 SLV $35 in the money calls. Look at the premium. That's fucking insane. Why not buy the 2012's? Someone knows something...I haven't looked at the T/S (time and sales) so not sure who and in which quantity they were bought in, but nonetheless, this is something to look at. | ||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 11:12 AM PST 
In the United States today, state and local governments are facing unprecedented budget crunches. Tax revenues are way down and expenses are way up. State and local government debt has reached at an all-time high of 22 percent of U.S. GDP, and many state and local governments are teetering on the brink of insolvency. States like Wisconsin have to do something or else they will collapse financially. Wisconsin is facing a $3.6 billion budget deficit (which for that state is huge), and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker and the Republicans in the legislature are attempting to make some tough cuts. In particular, they want public employees to pay a little more towards their health care premiums and pension programs. In fact, what the Republicans are proposing would still leave Wisconsin public employees contributing far less to health care and pensions than their private sector counterparts. U.S. Representative Paul Ryan recently appeared on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" program and described what Governor Scott Walker is asking the teachers to do....
These proposed changes have caused a massive uproar in Wisconsin. Just check out the following raw video footage from the last few days.... But this is what we have come to as a nation. Almost everyone agrees that reducing government debt is a good thing "in theory", but whenever anyone starts to put forward some specific proposals to cut government spending it makes those that will be affected by the cuts extremely upset. Just look at what is happening with the federal government. Republicans and Democrats are both frothing at the mouth over extremely small budget cuts that have been proposed. Virtually none of our national politicians are even willing to discuss budget cuts that would actually make a serious dent in our budget deficits. But we have got to do something. Spending by the U.S. government is spinning wildly out of control. Back in 1970, the U.S. government only spent about 200 billion dollars for the whole year. Well, this year the federal government is going to spend somewhere around 3.6 trillion dollars, and Barack Obama's newest budget proposal calls for U.S. government spending to increase to 5.6 trillion dollars by the year 2021. If the government continues to spend money at such a rapid pace it is going to completely wipe out our entire economic system....
But it is not just the U.S. government that is spending like a drunken sailor. Most of our state governments are complete financial disaster zones at this point as well. As I have written about previously, the state of Illinois is such a financial disaster zone that it is hard to even describe. According to 60 Minutes, the state of Illinois is six months behind on their bill payments. 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Croft asked Illinois state Comptroller Dan Hynes how many people and organizations are waiting to be paid by the state, and this is how Hynes responded....
Something has got to be done about our national addiction to debt. Government spending has to be dramatically cut. All of us are going to have to make sacrifices. We simply cannot continue to spend far, far, far more than we bring in. But we are Americans - we do not like to make sacrifices. Our founding fathers warned us about this. They warned that when the American people figured out that they could vote themselves money out of the U.S. Treasury it would greatly endanger our republic. Unfortunately that is exactly what is happening today. The vast majority of government spending on both the national and state levels consists of direct payments to individuals of one sort or another. The American people have become addicted to the bread crumbs that they receive from the hand of their master. This is not what our republic was supposed to look like. As the U.S. economy continues to decline, we are going to see a lot more riots like we have seen in Wisconsin. Once the American people realize that the "good times" are over, all hell is going to break loose. Already the anger and the frustration of the American people is starting to boil over. Unfortunately, that anger and frustration is focused in 1000 different directions. The ruling elite and the establishment media are constantly encouraging us to hate one another. I recently wrote about this phenomenon in an article on another website....
Unfortunately, America is more divided today than ever. Our extreme affluence has kept the thin veneer of civilization that we all take for granted from disappearing so far, but once our affluence is gone all of the hate and frustration in society is going to come bubbling to the surface and it is going to be horrifying to behold. Once the economic collapse happens, most Americans are not going to take it sitting down. Most Americans are going to want someone to blame. Most Americans are going to want to lash out somehow. America today is like a big, fat spoiled baby that is about to have its favorite pacifier permanently taken away. America is going to whine and cry and complain like there is no tomorrow. For decades the financial "gloom and doomers" have been warning about what would happen to this country if we didn't get our house in order, but nobody wanted to listen. Everyone just kept piling up more debt as if it would never be a problem. Well, now our entire country is covered in red ink. Large numbers of state and local governments across the country are on the verge of defaulting on their debts, and they are hoping that the federal government will bail them out. The federal government has already accumulated the biggest pile of debt the world has ever seen and continues to behave as if we can just keep borrowing and spending massive amounts of money forever. There is no way out of this nightmare under the current system. Taxing people more is not going to solve our problems. Taxing people less is not going to solve our problems. We have gotten to the point where it is inevitable that the debt bubble that we have created is going to burst. Our politicians can try to delay it for a while, but in the end the whole house of cards is going to come crashing down. When the U.S. economy does totally collapse, it is going to make the riots that we have seen in Egypt and throughout the Middle East this year seem tame by comparison. What we are witnessing right now in Wisconsin are just the "birth pains". The American people don't want to "tighten their belts". In fact, most Americans have absolutely no idea what "hard times" would even look like. When things go from bad to worse we are going to see temper tantrums in this country like we have never seen before. So get ready. Unless there is some kind of dramatic transformation in this country, in the years ahead we are going to see some horrific economic riots. It would be nice if we had a brighter future to look forward to, but we don't do ourselves any favors by living in denial. So what do you all think about what has been going on in Wisconsin? Do you all believe that we could see huge economic riots inside America in the years ahead? Feel free to leave a comment with your opinion below.... | ||
| Silver Blasts Higher, Constantine and Timberline News Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:47 AM PST Two of last year's Vulture Bargains issued interesting news today. We will get to that in a jiffy, but first a little crow is on the menu here at GGR. We like our Crow served chicken fried, with lots of salt and pepper, some dinner yeast rolls, sautéed peas & carrots mixed right in with southern rice and some good old brown gravy, thank you very much. Crow Tastes Good Sometimes Less than an hour after this morning's "nagging feeling" post went "live," you know, the post where we spent most of the time showing in the charts why the nagging feeling that had crept in was not showing in the charts, … you know, the post that said that if silver broke out today, our brand new hedges would be gone and gone quick; … the post that said that we had gotten "smaller" in some issues and that the Trading Gods would probably laughingly send them much higher now that we had not only done that, but then announced it publicly! … less than an hour after that post went live, kaboom! Silver didn't just print a feeble, "maybe-looking" just-barely kind of new high. No, sir and madam, silver blasted up and into what had to be a virtual boxcar full of trading and short seller trailing buy stops in the $31.30s and $31.40s. | ||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:11 AM PST I listen to the radio a lot, talk shows, sports talk, nothing really important. This week I've heard a never ending stream of ads from PM dealers, local brick and mortar and internet based. What's with that? Is a bubble forming? | ||
| Global Inflation Rising & Other Pro-Gold Developments Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST It seems that almost everywhere – except here in the United States – inflation is on the rise. We now read daily about the rise in agricultural, energy, and industrial commodity prices from one country to the next. | ||
| Flight # BLYH/JPM666,Silver ticket TO THE MOON Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST COMEX NEWS: Gold: -OI increases big time to 5834 contracts (Wednesdays figure's- we are always a day behind) -very low volume, again (theme continues) -1,130,000 left standing this month for delivery Silver: -OI increase by 1153 contracts -yesterdays volume was huge at 101,033 -ZERO deliveries, most likely b/c the COMEX has fuck all left in the vaults -more standing this month at 2,425,000, | ||
| Metals Rally Continues as Dollar, ETFs Slip Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST Gold rallied for a third straight session, adding $9.67, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,384.10. Silver surged $1.13, or 3.69%, to settle at $31.78, a new 30-year closing high in what seems to be a resumption of the bull trend that began last year. | ||
| Gold will Outperform after Stocks Peak Posted: 17 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST Bears and deflationists like to champion the "all one market" theory. While this can be true from time to time, it is incorrect in the larger picture. | ||
| Manufacturers Begin To Stockpile Precious Metals. Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:35 AM PST Looks like their getting ready for inflation & shortages. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pre...ers-2011-02-15 | ||
| Government Spending to Perpetuate Fiscal Insanity Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:17 AM PST Gold up a buck. Dow up 61. Housing still going nowhere...NAHB index flat for 4 months in a row. Food imports inflating at a 30% annual rate over the last 3 months. Fuel going up at a 60% rate. The World Bank says food stocks at "dangerously low" levels... "Manufacturers squeezed," by rising metals prices, says a headline. Retails sales in January below expectations. What can we say? Mixed signals. Confusing outlook. The underlying economy is in a slump. But the feds are putting out more and more hot money to try to fix it. It's a Great Correction, in other words. So, let's step back one more time and take a look at the big picture...then we'll return to our day by day reckoning tomorrow. Steven Rattner, writing in The Financial Times, says we're headed for a "fiscal nightmare." He puts the unfunded obligations of Social Security and Medicare at $50 trillion. Which is a lot of money. Even in this day and age. And he notes, as we did, that Obama's deficit cutting initiatives are puny and pathetic. In a nutshell, the Democrats don't want to cut discretionary spending for infrastructure, education, health and other seemingly laudable goals. The Republicans don't want to cut any money destined to maintain the security of the United States - also a worthy goal, if you put it that way. Nobody wants to cut Social Security or Medicare entitlements. That doesn't leave much. It is as if the feds were trying to butcher a wicker chair. There's no meat on it to cut. By our reckoning, the feds collect about $2 trillion in taxes. They spend about $3.6 trillion. That is how we get a record budget deficit of more than $1.6 trillion this year. They spend about $1.80 for every dollar in revenues, the greatest imbalance since WWII. During wartime we can understand going deep in the hole. "Buy Bonds," say the posters. "Support our Troops," say the slogans. Lending money to the feds seems like a good thing to do; the alternative - defeat - would be such a drag. But what is the emergency now? If the feds slow down their spending machine, what calamity will be upon us? What evil is so great that we should put the financial integrity of the nation at risk? Will foreign soldiers fill our bars and brothels? Will we have to surrender Bush and Cheney as war criminals? Will we have to pay reparations and lose Alaska? Nah? Then what is it? As near as we can figure, if we cut the deficit now we risk a return to sanity. That is, without the boost from government's very stimulative fiscal deficits, the economy would have to operate on a more sensible basis. The feds could spend only what they could afford. People who rely on money from the feds would have to get honest jobs...or cut their own spending to bring it in line with their real incomes. People could not spend money they got from the feds...after the feds borrowed it from someone else. So, there would be less money in the consumer economy, leading to all the big D problems - deflation, de- leveraging, defaults and depression. In other words, without the feds' activism, things might do what they ought to do. Debts would be written off, paid down, or restructured. Companies that depend on debt-fueled demand would go out of business. People who couldn't make ends meet without some extra twine from the government wouldn't be able to get their ends together; they could finally go broke and get on with their lives. That's what a correction is for - to fix the mistakes of the past...notably the mistakes caused by too much easy credit. Instead, the feds seem determined. They're doing the most remarkably imbecilic thing, no matter what we think here at The Daily Reckoning. Rather than let the private economy adjust to new circumstances...they will bankrupt the US government trying to keep the craziness going. But we are libeling imbeciles, aren't we? Stupid people would never think of doing such a thing. It takes a smart person with a lot of education. Because it's not that easy to overcome common sense. You need a lot of brainpower to do something that stupid. And more thoughts... The world took a big step forward - on the road to perfection - last week. At least, that's what you'd think if you watched TV or read the paper. To hear the press tell it, when a mob upsets a dictator, it is because they "yearn for freedom." They can hardly wait to get into the voting booth so they can pull the lever for truth and justice. Martin Wolf, writing in The Financial Times, and recently listed by Foreign Policy magazine as one of the world's 100 best thinkers, says the move in Egypt was a step in the right direction. How does he know it is the right direction? Because that's the way the rest of the world is going! He provides figures showing that there are many more democracies today than there were in 1945. The reasons he gives for this shift? Economics. Education. Richer, better educated people are less inclined to leave all the power in the hands of an autocrat, he thinks. But there's another reason. "The most powerful reason for believing in democracy's future, however, is that it responds to something deep with in us." Yes, dear reader...it is in our genes. Our inner democrat just needed about 2,000 years after the birth of Christ to express himself. And now he's mouthing off everywhere. Or... Is it possible that democracy is just the flavor of the month...an evolutionary development, like all the forms of government that came before it? Is it possible that it succeeded in the 20th century because it was much better adapted to leeching out the wealth and complicity of the average man? It gave him a stake in the system - like getting some prisoners to guard each other, or bribing taxpayers to rat out their neighbors to the IRS? Isn't it possible that by giving the masses a "voice," the elites who really control government are better able to take his money...and, if necessary, his life? Soldiers will do their duty to a dictator, if the price is right. They will do their duty to the government they helped elect for less. And they will more willingly submit to government's taxes, too, if they feel they are its masters, rather than the slaves. The real difference may only be an illusion, but it is an effective one. In practice, the individual may have less ability to influence the large pool of voting numbskulls than he does to influence a single knuckleheaded autocrat. But heck, we're all democrats now. Regards, Bill Bonner | ||
| Today’s Best Investment…Rhymes With Pickles Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:16 AM PST A huge opportunity to hedge against both inflation and deflation is lying out there in the open. There are no transaction costs and right now there's even a built-in discount. But most people will never realize any of this. In 1933 President Franklin Delano Roosevelt signed Executive Order 6102, which made it illegal for US citizens to hold gold bullion.
Prior to that order, the $20 bill was essentially a warehouse receipt for a one-ounce gold coin. Prior to the Federal Reserve Act of 1914, the $20 bill actually told you this.
After Executive Order 6102, $20 notes weren't allowed to be exchanged for gold anymore. Americans couldn't legally own or trade gold as money and savings, only as jewelry or collectible coins. A year after making monetary gold ownership illegal, FDR revalued gold from $20.67 per ounce to $35 an ounce with the Gold Reserve Act. The Act also required all gold and gold certificates to be turned over to the Treasury. The dollar was debased. Instead of "containing" 1/20 an ounce of gold, each dollar now only contained (or represented) 1/34 an ounce. And of course you couldn't actually own the gold itself. In 1971 Nixon severed the last official ties between gold and the dollar. The dollar quickly sunk to its real value, which had been debased by years of money supply inflation. By 1975, Americans were allowed to own bullion gold again, but during the roughly 40 years bullion gold ownership had been illegal, the dollar had been drastically debased. At its former lowest point in the summer of 1980, the dollar was worth only 1/850 an ounce of gold. It regained some value for a while, but right now a dollar gets you less than 1/1300 an ounce of gold. That was the story with a piece of paper that was merely standing in for a monetary metal. But what happens in the case of circulating coins actually composed of monetary metals? Let's look at quarters, dimes, nickels and pennies...
Because the amount of silver and copper and nickel in each case came to exceed the face value of the coin. The debasement of the US currency over time has required the metal in the coins to be replaced with a cheaper substitute. The average American has no idea what inflation really is or why currency debasement is a problem at all. He figures one metal is as good as another in minting of the currency...that when the face value of a coin falls below the value of the metal in the coin, it's nothing more than a curiosity. Substitute a cheaper metal, they think. Problem solved. And indeed the problem is solved for the government, which mints the coins made of real money at a loss after the effects of bouts of the inflation started by monetization of government debt. For savers and the overall economy on the other hand...their problems are just beginning... But that is a story for another time. For now let's look at the opportunities to be had when the government makes metals available for a fraction of their market price via coins...And let's see if there are any opportunities left (Hint: there are!). If you had seen the writing on the wall in the early 1960s and started hoarding quarters and dimes while they still were almost wholly silver, you would have found that your dimes were worth a high of $3.57 each in 1980 and your quarters were worth $8.93 each. In fact, these 90% coins still trade just like regular silver bullion bars and rounds. They were taken out of circulation - "hoarded" - by those savvy to debasement (Gresham's Law tells us that good money will be hoarded when bad money floods the market). These coins were collected without any transaction costs. They were bagged up with different face value totals: $1,000 bags, $500 bags, $250 bags, $100 bags and $50 bags. Each of these bags traded for over 35 times their face value because of the silver in the coins. At least they did at silver's peak in 1980. Even during the ensuing 20-year slump in silver prices, the value of silver bullion coins never dipped below three times face value. And now, thanks to waves of money and credit expansion from the Federal Reserve, silver is pushing back toward its old highs. These bags of silver coins are trading at more than 20 times their face value. They may hit 30 times face value again...and beyond... Silver probably has another trick or two up its sleeve. But let's turn our attention to the humble nickel... Every single circulating nickel still has 3.75 grams worth of copper each...along with 1.25 grams of nickel. Copper is currently about $4.46/lb. Nickel is currently about $12.97/lb. So if you do the math, each nickel is worth about 7.3 cents. 120 nickels pieces is worth $6.00 at face value. Those 120 coins contain about a pound of copper and 1/3 pound of nickel. That's about $8.76. You can't cash in on this arbitrage directly (anti-smelting laws for pennies and nickels were introduced in late 2006). But the bullion market for cupronickel coins will develop, just as it did for silver US coins. This will happen once the government starts minting five-cent pieces made out of cheaper metals. To those who doubt this will happen, I refer you to the bags of silver coins trading as bullion for over 20 times their face value. You can easily order such a bag right now by going to any of a number of online bullion dealers. These bags of coins sell right alongside silver bars and rounds. Right now, the government is subsidizing your copper and nickel purchases...and cutting out the middleman. As much as we complain about government, we ought to stop and offer them a little thanks for this one. What's even more interesting is that hoarding nickels provides an imbedded hedge against deflation. That's because a nickel will always be worth a nickel, at least. So if the dollar strengthens and copper, silver, and gold all get cheaper in dollar terms, you can still spend your nickels just like any other money. Your purchasing power stays the same, maybe even increases. But if the dollar declines, then the value of the cupronickel in the currency will rise against the face value. Eventually - at two or three times face value - these five-cent pieces will trade as bullion just as 90% silver quarters and dimes did and still do. Again, there is currently no transaction cost to saving in nickels and no risk from plummeting metal prices. There is literally nothing (in case of deflation) to lose and everything (in case of inflation) to gain. Your only real problem is storage; a few thousand dollars of nickels takes up a lot of space...and it's heavy. But people had the same problem with silver when it was cheap. I doubt they're complaining now. Having "too much" cupronickel won't seem like much of a problem if inflation continues to drive the cupronickel in five-cent pieces far in excess of face value. The cupronickel is America's last piece of honest currency. Regards, Gary Gibson | ||
| Massive Riots in Many Arab countries/silver explodes/ Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:12 AM PST This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||
| Calculating the Misery of Inflation Posted: 17 Feb 2011 09:00 AM PST I was, unfortunately, sober enough to realize that I needed to get a lot drunker if I was going to withstand the horror of reading of even more economic fallout of the Federal Reserve's disastrous decisions to create So Freaking Much Money (SFMM). In particular, Michael Pento, in an essay in the Euro Pacific's Weekly Digest newsletter, writes, "For the year 2010, the trade gap surged 43%, which was the biggest jump in a decade, as our government's efforts to reignite consumer borrowing and spending led to a record number of imported consumer goods." I wince and moan, devastated by the very concept of a trade gap jumping by almost half in One Freaking Year (OFY), a situation where we bought more from foreigners than we sold to foreigners, thus many of the Fed's trillions of new dollars flowed out of the US and into the world economy where it would produce its inflationary havoc, QED. Mr. Pento is also one of the few to notice that "the Misery Index hit a 26 year high for 2010. The index – which is simply the addition of the unemployment and inflation rate – reached 11.29." And how bad is this? Well, he says, "You have to go all the way back to 1984 to eclipse such a level of pain. Only back then, inflation was calculated without the 'benefit' of the manipulations of the Boskin Commission. Therefore, the Misery Index should be, in reality, much higher than 11.29 and is probably closer to the pain we felt under Jimmy Carter." Well, as a guy who thinks that inflation in important prices (food, energy, etc.) is running at least 7%, and as a guy who has seen John Williams at shadowstats.com showing pretty convincingly that unemployment is really running at over 22%, this means that the Misery Index at 29 has NEVER been this high! As bad as this is, this is, actually, the good news! The bad news is that the Misery Index will continue higher and higher because the Federal Reserve continues creating more and more money, and today's record-setting Misery Index of 29 will one day be considered "the good old days" when the news is filled with catastrophic inflation, widespread bankruptcies and economic collapse. At that dismal future time, your growing sense of horror will only momentarily be diverted by an amusing sidebar, perhaps a story titled "Mogambo Him Go, Say Fed No Mo'", a human-interest saga of how a guy calling himself The Mogambo is calling for his army of Junior Mogambo Rangers (JMRs) across the country to lean out of their windows and say, "I'm as mad as hell with the inflations and horrors of the Federal Reserve and I am not going to take it anymore!" in their demand that the Federal Reserve be dissolved and the country put back on a gold standard as literally required in the Constitution of the United States so that this monetary and fiscal madness would stop, and with a gold standard, never again would we have to face such appalling, catastrophic consequences of absurd levels of monstrous, monetary irresponsibility and sheer stupidity. Of course, the Main Stream Media will latch, like vicious, mindless, blood-sucking lamprey eels, onto the fact that my "popular uprising" is just a glaring rip-off of Peter Finch's famous scene in the movie Network, and which proves how I have no talent or creativity of any kind, which in turn shows how stupid I am, despite how I got very, very lucky when I bought all that gold and silver before the full impact of the inflationary horror unleashed by the Federal Reserve creating all that excess money started hitting everyone, but they won't mention that, by then, I am So Freaking Rich (SFR) that the only I reason I don't buy the whole Main Stream Media and fire them all is that I am too rich, too lazy, and/or too drunk, and/or too distracted, and/or too whacked-out to do it, or to even give a crap one way or the other. Mr. Pento is apparently unimpressed with my Fearless Mogambo Forecast (FMF) of what the future holds, or that whole swaths of the economy will tremble at my whim, but agrees that "America's citizenry are experiencing rising food and commodity prices, rising interest rates, falling home prices and stagnate wages and job growth." I was going to say that Mr. Pento, again, does not mention how buying gold, silver and oil is a perfect thing to do when the Federal Reserve is creating So Freaking Much Money (SFMM) that it guarantees ruinous inflation in prices so that most everyone will be bankrupt and eating weeds and bugs to stay alive because they can't afford food. Then I realized he actually DID say the same thing when he said, "But so far Mr. Bernanke has only managed to bail out his buddies on Wall Street and in Washington. Maybe he just doesn't realize that he is in the process of wiping out the middle class by destroying the value of our currency and rendering those without financial means, helpless to guard themselves against inflation." I smiled with satisfaction that when he went on to disparage Bernanke's legendary acing of the SAT by saying, "Too bad questions regarding the benefits of a sound currency weren't on his SAT exam." And again I smiled that Mr. Bernanke's dismal, utter failure and ridiculous incompetence shines a revealing light on Princeton, where he was, unbelievably, the head of the economics department. And a third time I smile because the entire historical record of the last 4,500 years is the same story, over and over, of idiot governments spending themselves into bankruptcy, and how gold and silver prove to be The Best Investment Ever (TBIE). And a fourth time I smile because one cannot help but smile when saying, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!" The Mogambo Guru Calculating the Misery of Inflation originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation. | ||
| Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:48 AM PST - Pressemitteilung des GEAB vom 17. Februar 2011 -  Mit dieser 52. Ausgabe des GEAB wollen wir zwei wichtige Jahrestage der Politischen Antizipation feiern. Denn im Februar 2006, also vor genau fünf Jahren, erregte der GEAB mit seiner 2. Ausgabe immense, weltweite Aufmerksamkeit, als er den unmittelbar bevorstehenden Ausbruch einer massiven weltweiten Krise vorhersagte, mit der das Ende des Westens und der Weltordnung der Nachkriegszeit eingeleitet werde. Und genau vor zwei Jahren, also im Februar 2009, sagte LEAP/E2020 in der 32. Ausgabe des GEAB bis Jahresende 2009 den Beginn der Phase des Zerfalls der Welt –und öffentlichen Ordnung voraus. In beiden Fällen war ein Phänomen auffällig: Während weltweit Millionen Menschen die Pressemitteilung lasen und es damit keinen Zweifel daran geben konnte, dass diese Vorhersagen den Nerv der Zeit getroffen hatten, erwähnten die großen Medien die Arbeiten des GEAB und die Reaktionen der Menschen darauf mit beinahe keinem Wort, während im Internet die große Mehrheit der Experten für Wirtschaft, Finanzmärkte und internationale Beziehungen gegen unsere Vorhersagen Sturm lief, bzw. versuchte sie ins Lächerliche zu ziehen.  Heute jedoch, mit Beginn des Jahres 2011, zweifelt kaum jemand noch daran, dass wir uns in einem historischen Umbruch befinden, mit dem die Nachkriegswelt und mit ihr in erster Linie die USA vor unseren Augen zusammenbrechen. Die Weltordnung der letzten Jahrzehnte zerfällt jeden Tage mehr, während gleichzeitig die sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Strukturen der meisten Staaten dieser Erde weiter zerbröseln (1). Heute ist dies alles eindeutig. 2006 hingegen waren „Entscheider und Experten" (2) noch so sicher, dass die Gefahr einer größeren Krise ausgeschlossen war. Und 2009 war es genauso ausgeschlossen, dass die Welt – und öffentliche Ordnung zerfallen könnte. Leider haben sich die Fähigkeiten unserer immer noch gleichen „Entscheider und Experten", die ablaufenden Ereignisse zu antizipieren und darauf zu reagieren, in keiner Weise verbessert. Denn vor kaum einmal zwei Monaten erschien ihnen die Möglichkeit von erfolgreichen Volksaufständen in Tunesien und Ägypten undenkbar. Heute sind Regierungen und internationale Organisationen blind (3), Experten und Medien überfordert (4). Die westlichen Eliten und ihre Klone in den anderen Weltregionen preschen weiterhin den Holzweg ihrer obsoleten Wahrheiten entlang, wollen gar noch beschleunigen, um möglichst schnell mit einem Mehr an alten Rezepten die Krise zu überwinden. Das Bild vom Holzweg hinkt, wie alle Vergleiche, etwas, da selbst Heidegger schrieb, dass auch Holzwege weiterführen können, wenn man die Bescheidenheit besitzt, ständig dem Wald und seinen Zeichen zu lauschen (6). Aber unsere Eliten ignorieren die Zeichen sogar dann, wenn sie zu ohrenbetäubenden Warnsignalen anschwellen. Dafür können wir sogar ein sehr gutes Beispiel aus jüngster Vergangenheit anführen: Angela Merkel (7), gefolgt von weiteren hochrangigen Politikern und eminenten Experten sowie den Medien, vergleicht die Ereignisse in Nordafrika mit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer. Wir nutzen diesen Vergleich schon seit 2006, um zu beschreiben, welche Qualität der Niedergang der USA besitzt und bis zu welchem Grad die bestehende Weltordnung dadurch umgekrempelt wird. Dennoch sind unsere Eliten unfähig, dieses Bild weiterzudenken und sich klarzumachen, welche Mauer, die welches Imperium schützt, am Einstürzen ist. Vielleicht sind sie aber auch nur unwillig, weil sie einfach nicht erkennen wollen, dass ihre Welt und damit auch ihre Zeit an der Macht und im Rampenlicht zu Ende ist. Unsere Entscheider und Experten beschreiben, statt zu analysieren.  Wie die Berliner Mauer wurde die « Mauer », die nun einstürzt, sehr wohl von jemandem und mit einem Ziel errichtet. Die Berliner Mauer wurde von der DDR-Regierung als Teil des „Eisernen Vorhangs" errichtet, mit dem die Sowjetunion sich und ihre Satellitenstaaten hermetisch vom Westen abriegeln wollte. Diese Isolation sollte die Herrschaft der kommunistischen Parteien im Ostblock und damit die Kontrolle Moskaus über die osteuropäischen Länder sichern. Im Austausch dafür sicherte Moskau Macht und Privilegien der herrschenden Klasse in den kommunistischen Ländern. Mit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer zerfiel auch das Machtmonopol und der Herrschaftsanspruch der kommunistischen Parteien und somit auch Moskaus Kontrolle über seinen bisherigen Einflussbereich. Die kommunistischen Regime Osteuropas kippten wie Dominosteine. Gerade einmal zwei Jahre später löste sich die Sowjetunion auf.. Wenn also auch in der arabischen Welt vor unseren Augen gerade eine Mauer fällt, dann muss jeder, der versuchen möchte, die kommenden Ereignisse vorherzusehen, sich folgende Fragen stellen: Wer hat diese Mauer gebaut? Und mit welchem Ziel? Die Antworten darauf sind für die, die keine ideologischen Scheuklappen tragen, nicht schwer zu finden: - Diese Mauer wurde von den jeweiligen Diktatoren oder Regimen in der Region errichtet, um ihr Monopol auf die Macht im und den Reichtum des Landes zu sichern und zu verhindern, dass der alleinige Machtanspruch für ihre Partei oder ihre Dynastie in Frage gestellt wird. Insoweit gibt es wenig relevante Unterschiede zwischen den Oligarchien in den arabischen Ländern und der Nomenklatura in den kommunistischen Ländern. - Diese Mauer war ein Teil der gesamten « Sicherungsanlage », die Washington aufgebaut hatte, um seinen privilegierten, da in eigener reinen Papierwährung bezahlten Zugang zu den Erdölquellen dieser Region zu gewährleisten und die Interessen Israels zu schützen. Die treue Zusammenarbeit der Armeen und Sicherheitsbehörden dieser Länder (ohne Syrien und Libyen) mit dem US-Militär und den amerikanischen Geheimdiensten sicherte (und sichert noch immer) eine bedingungslose Unterstützung Amerikas und ermöglichte (und ermöglicht noch immer) somit den Machthabern in den arabischen Ländern dank Ausschaltung innerer und äußerer Opposition den ungestörten Nießbrauch ihrer Privilegien. Wenn also die deutsche Kanzlerin auf der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz ihren Vergleich mit dem Fall der Berliner Mauer etwas weiter gedacht hätte, hätte sie sich eigentlich die Anwesenheit der amerikanischen Außenministerin Hillary Clinton nutzen können, um ihr die Frage zu stellen, ob die Ereignisse in Tunesien und Ägypten nicht auch nach ihrer Ansicht die ersten Zeichen für den bevorstehenden Fall aller Regime seien, die für ihr Überleben von Washington abhängen; und ob damit nicht auch das gesamte Erdölversorgungssystem der USA, in dessen Aufbau und Erhalt die USA seit Jahrzehnten ungeheure Anstrengungen investieren, vor dem Zusammenbruch stehe? Und damit auch die Rolle des Dollars als Zahlungsmittel für Erdöl und damit wiederum die Rolle des Dollars als Weltleitwährung? (7) Und während bei den Anwesenden auf der Sicherheitskonferenz in München die Erkenntnis einzusickern begonnen hätte, dass endlich über etwas wahrhaft Bedeutendes diskutiert wird (8), hätte sie noch hinzufügen können: Und was die Lage Israels angeht, meinen Sie nicht auch, dass der Fall dieser „Mauer" auch erfordert, umgehend den gesamten Ansatz der amerikanisch-israelischen Politik in dieser Region auf den Prüfstand zu stellen? (9) Wie durch ein Wunder wäre die Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz in das 21. Jahrhundert versetzt worden und der europäisch-amerikanische Dialog hätte sich endlich mit den realen Themen der Welt beschäftigt, statt weiterhin in der virtuellen Welt der transatlantischen Beziehungen und ihrer ausschließlichen Konzentration auf die Bekämpfung des Terrorismus zu verharren. Aber wir wissen alle, dass es zu diesen Fragen und einer anschließenden Diskussion nicht gekommen ist. Die intellektuelle Geisterfahrt unserer Regierungen wird wohl noch ihre Fortsetzung finden. Damit werden uns die Schocks, die das Jahr 2011 auf Lager hält und über die wir ausführlich in der vorhergehenden Ausgabe des GEAB geschrieben haben, mit aller Härte treffen.  Wir gehen davon aus, dass die gegenwärtigen Ereignisse in der arabischen Welt, deren Trends und Ursachen wir korrekt vorhergesagt hatten, vor allen Dingen die regionalen Auswirkungen der grundlegenden Trends der gegenwärtigen umfassenden weltweiten Krise in ihrer Phase der Auflösung der Welt – und öffentlichen Ordnung sind (10). Es sind die Vorzeichen der massiven Schocks, die in den nächsten Monaten und Jahren die Welt erschüttern werden. Wir gehen insbesondere davon aus, dass das Jahresende 2011 von einer Entwicklung gekennzeichnet wird, die wir mit dem Bild vom „Fall der Petro-Dollarmauer" beschreiben (11). Für die USA wird es bedeuten, dass sie nicht mehr in der Lage sein werden, ihre Ölimporte zu finanzieren. Dies ist im übrigen eines der Hauptthemen dieser 52. Ausgabe des GEAB, in der wir darüberhinaus auch unsere Voraussagen für die weiteren Entwicklungen in der arabischen Welt, einschließlich einer Einschätzung über die hoheitlichen Länderrisiken in der Region, vorstellen. Weiterhin analysieren wir die weitere Beschleunigung der Entstehung der politischen Entität Euroland und antizipieren ihre Auswirkungen auf den Euro und die allgemeine Situation in Europa. Letztlich stellen wir unsere Empfehlungen vor, die Investoren ermöglichen sollen, auf diese Entwicklungen angemessen zu reagieren. --------- Notes: (1) Sogar der IWF, der für originelle Analysen wenig bekannt ist, schreibt inzwischen von Bürgerkriegsgefahr in vielen Regionen der Welt, wie der Telegraph vom 01/02/2011 berichtete. Hingegen beschert uns The Onion vom 24/01/2011 einen tollen Artikel schwarzen Humors, dem sich die aktuelle Stimmung in weiten Teilen der Bevölkerung schön entnehmen lässt: Danach hätte die World Heritage Foundation den Graben zwischen Reichen und Armen zum Achten Weltwunder erklärt, das alles übertreffen würde, was die Menschheit bisher geschaffen habe. Auch der Präsident von Goldman Sachs Blankfein wird mit einer Hommage zitiert. (2) Wir halten die Anführungsstriche für gerechtfertigt, denn ein Entscheider, der nichts voraussieht, und Experten, die nichts wissen, sind nichts weiter als intellektuelle Betrüger. (3) Die CIA und die französische Regierung liefern zwei bezeichnende Beispiele für diese allgemeine Tendenz. Beide hatten keine Ahnung davon, was sich in Tunesien und Ägypten vorbereitete, obwohl die einen Abermilliarden Dollar ausgeben, um die arabische Welt auszuspionieren, und die anderen Kontakte auf höchster Ebene pflegen und häufig in den Ländern sind. wie der Premierminister und die Außenministerin anlässlich ihrer Ferien. Dabei hätte es ausgereicht, unsere Voraussagen von 2008 in der 26. Ausgabe des GEAB zu lesen, in denen wir genau die Trends beschreiben, die zum Ausbrechen der Aufstände der letzten Wochen geführt haben. Aber wir schreibt der Spiegel vom 3.2.2011 so unverblümt: Revolution ist schlecht fürs Geschäft. Und man könnte hinzufügen: Insbes. wenn man sie nicht hat kommen sehen. (4) Viele Investoren und Unternehmen, die ihre Anlageentscheidungen auf deren Analysen gestützt haben, befinden sich heute in ernsten Schwierigkeiten, denn das « El Dorado », das ihnen in Reportagen und Berichten schmackhaft gemacht wurde, sind als instabile Regionen mit unvorhersehbaren Entwicklungen mit einem Mal zu Geldfallen geworden. Was als „fantastische Wettbewerbsvorteile" gepriesen worden war, verwandelte sich quasi über Nacht in „untragbare hoheitliche Länderrisiken". Unternehmensgründungen, Beschäftigung von Subunternehmen, Tourismus, Bau von Infrastruktur – all diese Aktivitäten, mit denen westliche Unternehmen bisher viel Geld in diesen Ländern verdienen konnten, werden durch die unsicheren Aussichten bezüglich sozialer Lage und wirtschaftlicher, finanzieller, geldpolitischer und gesetzgeberischer Entwicklung zu hochriskanten Unternehmungen. (5) Kleine philosophische und methodische Anmerkung: Es handelt sich dabei um keine bewusst vorgenommene Weichenstellung, aber wir stellen fest, dass unsere Antizipationsarbeiten aus festen deutsch-französischen Wurzeln ihre Stärke ziehen. Nicht nur stützen wir uns auf diese Heidegger so wichtige Idee des „Zuhörens" (Besinnlichkeit) und des Verständnisses der Realität (Weltverständnis), sondern auch auf den von Descartes vertretenen Anspruch einer vernunftgesteuerten Methode als Grundlage des Handelns. Davon sollten sich auch die leiten lassen, die zur Zeit an Vorschlägen für eine Euroland-Governance arbeiten. Wer mehr wissen möchte über diese Idee des „Weges" nach Heidegger und Descartes, sollte sich die Webseite Digressions anschauen. Wer verstehen möchte, wie die Methode funktioniert, auf deren Grundlage die Arbeiten von LEAP/E2020 erstellt werden, der wird auf das „Handbuch der Politischen Antizipation" verwiesen, das im Verlag Anticipolis erschienen ist. (6) Quelle: Bundeskanzlerin, 10/02/2011 (7) Diese Entwicklung um die Rolle des Dollars auf den Rohölmärkten hat schon eingesetzt, denn die USA werden wohl ihren eigenen WTI für den Ölpreis aufgeben und sich dem europäischen Brent anschließen, den bereits 2009 auch Saudi-Arabien übernommen hat. Die Abweichungen zwischen den beiden Indizes war noch nie so ausgeprägt wie während der Aufstände in Ägypten. Wir werden auf das Thema Öl in einem weitern Kapitel dieser Ausgabe des GEAB noch vertieft eingehen. Quelle: Bloomberg 10/02/2011 (8) Diese Konferenz verströmt, wie auch das Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos, einen exquisiten Hauch vergangener Tage. Ihre Organisatoren und Teilnehmer scheinen noch nicht verstanden zu haben, dass ihre Welt untergegangen ist, dass ihre Debatten niemanden mehr draußen, in der wahren Welt, interessieren, und dass die vielen Stunden Übertragungszeit, mit der sie von den großen internationalen Fernsehsendern bedacht werden, umgekehrt proportional sind zu dem wahren Interesse und der wahren Zahl der Zuschauer. Insbesondere Davos mit seinen mehr als 1500 Teilnehmern aus den USA und Großbritannien bei nur 58 Südamerikanern und weniger als 500 Asiaten ist geradezu ein Markenzeichen der Welt von Gestern geworden. Das sieht man auch an der Tatsache, dass in Davos die Konferenzsprache ausschließlich Englisch ist. Nicht einmal die Webseite des Forums ist mehrsprachig. Wir gehen davon aus, dass es heute recht einfach ist zu erkennen, ob eine internationale Organisation oder Veranstaltung noch in der Welt von Gestern verhaftet ist oder versucht, sich auf den Weg in die Welt zu Morgen zu machen. Moderne Strukturen bekennen sich zur auch sprachlichen Vielfalt der Welt. (9) Hierzu empfiehlt sich ganz nachdrücklich die Lektüre des Leitartikels von Larry Derfner in der Jerusalem Post vom 09/02/2011. (10) Washington hat damit bewiesen, dass es auf die Entwicklung in keiner Weise vorbereitet war. Ihr anschließendes Lavieren zeigt, dass die USA ihre internationale Führungsrolle eingebüßt haben. Es kann nun keine Zweifel mehr daran bestehen, dass das amerikanische politische System weitgehend gelähmt ist. Ägypten ist ja schließlich nicht irgendein amerikatreuer Staat. Es zählt zu den Ländern, die mit am stärksten von den USA finanziert und unterstützt werden, und dies seit den siebziger Jahren. Die New York Times 12/02/2011 fast die Lage recht gut zusammen, auch wenn sie versucht, diese Ohnmacht als Ergebnis einer Strategie zu verkaufen. Sie vergleicht die US-Position mit der Börsentechnik des « straddle », wenn Investoren und Händler angesichts einer Entwicklung, die in verschiedene Richtungen gehen kann, versuchen, sich nach verschiedenen Seiten abzusichern. Eher nebenbei lässt sich aus dem Artikel die wachsende Kluft zwischen den „Alten" und den „Modernen" im US-Machtapparat herauslesen. Aber wir werden in einem weiteren Kapitel zu all diesen Aspekten noch im Einzelnen schreiben. (11) Die ein tragendes Teil der « Dollarmauer » ist, wie die « Berliner Mauer » ein tragendes Teil des « Eisernen Vorhangs » war. | ||
| Middle East Issues, 6 month Old Video Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:31 AM PST While the middle east begins to crumble, and more media comes out with more bullshit about Iran and warships and Hezbollah and blah blah blah, just remember who really owns the FOX news you watch.... silver will only gain from disputes in the middle east moving forward. Lets see if we can gain anything from this 6 month old video, that still has relevance today, obviously. More tonight on the |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Gold World News Flash 2 To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment