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Thursday, February 10, 2011

Gold World News Flash

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Gold World News Flash


GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Peter Schiff & Chris Waltzek

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:02 PM PST


Crude Remains Supported by Growth Optimism, Gold Unfazed by Bernanke Testimony

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:30 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com February 09, 2011 07:51 PM Crude oil was once again supported by improving economic fundamentals. Meanwhile, gold held onto gains from earlier this week as Fed Chairman Bernanke delivered his testimony to Congress. Commodities – Energy Crude Remains Supported by Growth Optimism Crude Oil (WTI) - $86.83 // $0.12 // 0.14% Commentary: Most benchmark crudes rose on Wednesday, with Brent adding $1.90, or 1.9%, to settle at $101.82, just shy of last week’s 27-month high closing level of $102.34. WTI continues to be an outlier given pipeline and storage issues in the Midwest; it fell $0.23, or 0.26%, to settle at $86.71. Wednesday’s move higher was merely a continuation of the upward momentum we have seen in crude since November. Excluding the very sharp and temporary correction in November, this uptrend has been in place since August. That means that oil has been advancing rather steadily for six months in a row- a remarkable rally by an...


Ira Epstein's Weekly Metal Report

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:09 PM PST

China surprised the financial markets by raising interest rates on Tuesday. They raised the exchange rate for the Yuan by a fraction today. The rate hike had long been anticipated, but having it occur on the Lunar Holiday seemed to have surprised the market. The net result was that the Dollar broke off this news while the Eurocurrency rallied.


The Perfect Storm for Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:05 PM PST

A lot of short-term peaks and troughs can make things messy in the resource space, and the associated volatility can whipsaw people out of investments. "Still," says Pathfinder Asset Management Limited's Associate Portfolio Manager Taylor MacDonald, "the long-term picture itself is very much intact."


Pricing the World in Gold: 4 Charts

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:03 PM PST

WHAT WOULD the world look like if, as a handful of economists, investors and politicians hope, gold really was money again? In a word, cheap...ish. Cheaper, at least, than much of it was a decade ago.


Municipal Bond Shock Could Ignite Silver Charts

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 05:25 PM PST

Less than 45 days into 2011, it appears that this just may be the year of the paper recovery, but that doesn’t mean that lingering problems have been wiped away. At center stage now is the municipal bond market, which having grown tremendously as investors fled to safe havens in 2009, may soon find itself in a perilous situation. The problem now is that the markets are struggling to find enough capital. Throughout the financial crisis, municipal bonds perceived to be less risky than other investments accepted cash in droves. This new investment was buoyed mostly by a large, Federal stimulus package that stood as an underwriter for new debt issuance. That is, states could issue more debt to take advantage of ultra-low financing costs before passing on the one-year expenditures to the Federal government. Thus, first-year borrowing costs were nil, and so too were the long-term borrowing costs expected to be. However, as the markets recover with tons of paper ...


Perth Mint Out of 100 Ounce Silver Bars for at least 6 Weeks

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 04:49 PM PST

King World News has verified with the Perth Mint that they have run out of 100 ounce silver bars and they are not slated to be available again until the end of March. As of the close Thursday, 100 ounce silver bars were still unavailable at ScotiaMocatta as well.


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold Silver Price Ratio Near Multi Decade Lows

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 04:01 PM PST

Kirk Lindstrom submits:

The gold-to-silver price ratio, defined as the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver, closed Wednesday at 45.16 This means an ounce of gold is just over forty five times more expensive than an ounce of silver.

As my chart below shows, twenty years ago in 1991, gold was over 100 times more expensive than silver. Since then, the gold-to-silver price ratio never went below 41.51.

The chart also shows that it is very rare for gold to be less than 50 times more expensive than silver, as indicated by the small percentage of time the ratio is below the dashed black line.

click to enlarge

One of the safest and easiest ways to trade gold and silver is through an exchange traded fund. The fund managers buy and store the metal for you so you don't have to worry about storage costs or security. The major disadvantage is if the whole financial system melts down, you may lose access to your investment. For that reason, many that want to hedge for an "Armageddon type" event buy gold and silver bars and coins.

Comparison of SLV to GLD

GLD:
According to Seeking Alpha, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF has:
Expense Ratio of 0.40%
Average Bid Ask Ratio: 0.01%
Tracking Error: 1.06%
Concentration Risk of 100.00% (All assets in gold)
Yahoo! says GLD has Net Assets of $57.21B

SLV:
According to Seeking Alpha, the iShares Silver Trust ETF has:
Expense Ratio of 0.50%


Complete Story »


Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Close Slightly Higher

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 04:00 PM PST

Gold fell $1.70 to $1361.40 in Asia before it chopped its way up to $1366.90 in midmorning New York Trade and then fell all the way to $1357.80 by about 11:30AM EST, but it then rallied back higher in the last couple of hours of trade and ended near its earlier high with a gain of 0.1%. Silver rallied to as high as $30.51 by about 8AM EST before it fell back to $30.06 by late morning in New York, but it also rallied back higher in late trade and ended with a gain of 0.23%.


China, Inflation & Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 03:09 PM PST

China created paper money and paper money then created inflation..

Asian nations,China and India in particular, have a long history with gold. Precious metals as a hedge against chaos is deeply embedded in Asian cultures and when chaos takes the form of inflation, gold is the default hedge; and, today, inflation is on the rise.
China raised interest rates for the third time since mid-October ahead of a report forecast to show inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 30 months. - February 8, 2011, Bloomberg News
This has profound implications for the price of gold. As inflation continues to increase, the buying of physical gold by the Chinese will send the price of gold skyrocketing. In fact, it has already begun.
On February 2nd, the Financial Times reported: Fears of inflation have also driven demand for gold as a retail investment… Precious metals traders in London and Hong Kong said on Wednesday they were stunned by the strength of Chinese buying in the past month. "The demand is unbelievable. The size of the orders is enormous," said one senior banker, who estimated that China had imported about 200 tonnes in three months.
More Here..


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

States in Peril Must Cut to the Bone?

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 02:04 PM PST


Via Pension Pulse.

The WSJ reports that U.S. House Republicans said Wednesday they are concerned about a "looming fiscal crisis" in state and local finances but ruled out any federal bailouts for states. This is placing pressure on states to introduce tough budget measures, pitting states against public unions:

Lawmakers around the country are looking at new ways to prevent budget disasters by changing the rules for overburdened state employee pension funds. But they are meeting stiff resistance from public employee unions.

 

Two Arizona state lawmakers this week, including the speaker of the House, introduced their plan to salvage the state's budget by significantly changing the public retirement system.

 

Following the lead of Gov. Chris Christie, R-N.J., a pair of New Jersey assemblymen on Monday put forth their legislative solution to make solvent a fund that's $54 billion in the red.

 

Also on Monday, in his first budget address as governor, Florida's Rick Scott announced his effort to "stabilize and secure" government employee pensions.

 

The moves are part of a larger battle over pension reform between conservative budget hawks and government worker unions. And the public-sector employees are fighting back hard.

 

"We're working in partnership with affiliates around the country to wage full-scale battleground campaigns -- to defend our pensions, to fight budget cuts and privatization, to protect collective bargaining and our political power," said American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Secretary-Treasurer Lee Saunders at a public pension leadership meeting in Washington late last year.

 

Saunders's union, a vocal and powerful political force, often in support of Democrats, represents more than 1.6 million state, county and municipal workers who will be directly affected by the reforms proposed nationwide.

 

The fight for pension reform was certainly a political winner in 2010 for Wisconsin's Scott Walker and Ohio's John Kasich. The Republicans each championed the cause on the way to becoming governor of their respective states.

 

On his first day in office, Kasich sent a letter to state employees explaining how "like any organization, state government has, over time, slowly become too bureaucratic. Together we'll recharge it, reform it, modernize it and, yes, in some cases, make it smaller."

 

Ron Snell, who keeps track of pension legislation for the National Conference of State Legislatures, said lawmakers are motivated by a double squeeze on pension systems -- the investment market collapse of 2008 and a glut of retirements as Baby Boomers move into their 60's.

 

The economic difficulty of finding solutions to balance the ledger is matched by the hard political effort that will be needed to take away or curtail benefits for state union employees. Lawmakers who support such plans risk the label of "anti-worker politician" from labor leaders like AFSCME President Gerry McEntee -- a sobriquet often matched with big campaign spending.

 

"I think what you were hearing from President McEntee was a very legitimate concern that the problems that public employee pensions are facing because of the economic downturn are really being exploited by some politicians who want to use this as an opportunity to attack working families in this country," Scott Wasserman, political director of Colorado WINS, which represents public employees, told Fox News.

 

Wasserman also attended the December union summit and says states can look to what Colorado accomplished in 2010 as a model for success. "I think there was universal recognition on both sides of the aisle that this was an important problem to fix, " Wasserman said. "And that if we all work together and if there was shared sacrifice from employees and from taxpayers and from retirees that we could actually put out fund on the track to solvency."

 

Colorado lawmakers passed a plan that increased the employee contribution rate while the state share of retirement contributions decreased. The deal also increased age and service requirements especially for younger and future state workers.

 

But not everyone in Colorado thinks the deal is a swell compromise. Approximately 100,000 retirees are asking a state court to invalidate the law claiming that another part of the plan illegally lowers future cost of living adjustments.

 

In Florida, Scott said the hard decisions that have been made in the private sector must be made in his state. He's asking workers to contribute 5 percent of their income toward the retirement fund.

 

"We cannot ask Florida taxpayers, most of whom have no pension at all, to bear all the costs of pensions for government employees," Scott said. "By modernizing the Florida Retirement System, we will save taxpayers $2.8 billion over two years."

 

Even if states are able to solve the political problems with employee pensions and pass reform legislation, the actual economic benefit from their hard work will not be readily seen.

 

"Over time, the systems will cost the public substantially less. It won't show up quickly, but it will certainly take care of the problem in the long run," Snell said.

There is no question that state pensions need to be reformed. The question is what type of reforms and how will they benefit all stakeholders? I think there needs to be some give and take from all sides. The fact remains that state pension funds used rosy investment projections and have been neglected for far too long. Nobody bothered putting money in them, and their governance model left them vulnerable to fraud and mismanagement.

And now states are getting squeezed by the credit agencies. CNN reports that Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating on New Jersey's debt to AA- from AA, citing concerns about its massive retirement obligations:

"The lower rating reflects our concern regarding the stresses from the state's poorly funded pension system, substantial post-employment benefit obligations, and above-average debt levels," said Standard & Poor's Credit Analyst Jeffrey Panger.

The state has nearly $33 billion in debt, among the highest in the nation, according to S&P, which rates the state's outlook as stable because it believes it will "continue to manage its structural budget imbalances proactively."

 

New Jersey has long skimped on funding its pension, leaving it with a current unfunded liability of $54 billion.

 

Gov. Chris Christie, who took office in 2010, has taken an aggressive approach to handling the Garden State's financial problems. He closed a fiscal 2011 deficit of $11 billion, which was equal to 37% of the budget, by deeply cutting spending and suspending a property tax rebate. He also deferred $3.1 billion in pension funding.

 

The state faces a budget gap of $10.5 billion for fiscal 2012, which starts July 1, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The governor is expected to release his budget in coming weeks.

 

Responding to the S&P downgrade, Christie called on lawmakers to overhaul the state's retirement system. He wants to raise the retirement age, require workers to contribute to their pensions and curb the annual cost-of-living increases that retirees receive.

"Governor Christie's pension and benefit reforms are necessary to manage the state's pension liability and ensure long-term stability," said Press Secretary Michael Drewniak in a statement responding to the downgrade.

I have no problem with Governor Christie's recommendations but they're missing something important. Reforms are also needed in the governance of the state pension plan. Get rid of rosy investment projections, appoint an independent board, hire seasoned money managers and compensate them properly, aligning their interests with stakeholders' interests. And for Pete's sake, stop skimping on funding your pension!

It's easy to cut, cut, cut and demonize public pensions. Much harder to build and improve on the current retirement system. That's why I get so annoyed with rating agencies and what looks to me like an obvious ideological war on public unions/ pensions (to weaken them so private sector interests can benefit). All these angry people in the US who attack public employees and their "generous benefits" should ask themselves what will happen to their vital services when states cut to the bone.


Guest Post: China, Inflation & Gold: China Created Paper Money And Paper Money Then Created Inflation

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 02:02 PM PST


From Darryl Robert Schoon of 321 Gold

China, Inflation & Gold: China Created Paper Money And Paper Money Then Created Inflation

Ralph T. Foster in his invaluable book, Fiat Paper Money, The History and Evolution of Our Currency, writes that paper money made its first appearance in Szechwan, a remote province of China early in the 11th century.

Because of a shortage of copper coins, provincial officials had begun circulating iron coins; but the difference in value and weight between the two metals caused unexpected problems.

As Foster writes: [housewives needed] one and one-half pounds of iron [coins] to buy one pound of saltPaper was the answer. People began to deposit their iron money in money shops and exchanged deposit receipts to transact business.

The money shops’ deposit receipts then began circulating as money. But the money shops soon issued more deposit receipts than their supply of coins and by 1022, confidence had eroded in both the notes and the supporting iron money [and] government authorities closed the private note shops.

When the Chinese government intervened, the government quickly discovered the advantages paper money - at least to the issuers. The Sung dynasty immediately banned the issuance of paper notes by private money shops and on January 12, 1024, the Sung court directed the imperial treasury to issue national paper money for general use.

In the beginning, the imperial treasury backed its paper notes with cash coins equal to 29% of the paper money issued. Eventually, however, the Sung, like each succeeding dynasty, would print far more money than it actually possessed in backing.

The consequent loss of confidence in paper money caused Chinese scholars to question the nature of money...Ye Shi (1150-1223) spoke out against excessive amounts of what he called “empty money” when he observed how paper inflation hurt the economy; and scholar Hu Zhiyu (1127-1295) concluded that only backing gave paper value and blamed the retreat from convertibility for the loss of public confidence.. paper money, the child, is dependent on precious metals, the mother. Inconvertible notes are therefore “orphans who lost their mother in childbirth”. (page 19)

For the next 600 years, succeeding dynasties would each attempt to utilize the advantages of paper money and avoid its disadvantages. Not one dynasty was able to do so. All attempts to use paper money ended in runaway inflation and dynastic collapse.

By 1661, China finally learned its lesson and the new Qing dynasty officially outlawed paper money. Regarding China’s 600 year experiment, Foster writes:

Over the course of 600 years, five dynasties had implemented paper money and all five made frequent use of the printing press to solve problems. Economic catastrophe and political chaos inevitably followed. Time and again, officials looked to paper money for instant liquidity and the immediate transfer of wealth. But its ostensible virtues could not withstand its tragic legacy: those who held it as a store of value found that in time all they held were worthless pieces of paper. (page 29)

Today, almost 1,000 years after paper money first appeared and 350 years after China banned its use, China’s is again issuing excessive amounts of paper money; and, once again, paper money’s initial prosperity is about to give way to inflation and economic chaos in the celestial kingdom.

Southern Weekly, a Chinese language publication, recently noted: China has not only been the country that prints money at the fastest rate but also been the country with the largest money supply in the world in the past decade. China’s M2, a broad measure of money supply, was up 19.46% at the end of November from a year earlier...This compares with 3.3% and 2.5% of annual M2 growth in the US and Japan respectively over the same period…

China's money supply, M2-to-GDP ratio over the past decade is the highest in the world. The nation with the longest history of excessive money printing and consequent inflation has clearly forgotten its past. The past, however, has not forgotten China.

2011: CHINA, INFLATION & THE PRICE OF GOLD

Asian nations, China and India in particular, have a long history with gold. Precious metals as a hedge against chaos is deeply embedded in Asian cultures and when chaos takes the form of inflation, gold is the default hedge; and, today, inflation is on the rise.

China raised interest rates for the third time since mid-October ahead of a report forecast to show inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 30 months. - February 8, 2011, Bloomberg News

This has profound implications for the price of gold. As inflation continues to increase, the buying of physical gold by the Chinese will send the price of gold skyrocketing. In fact, it has already begun.

On February 2nd, the Financial Times reported: Fears of inflation have also driven demand for gold as a retail investment… Precious metals traders in London and Hong Kong said on Wednesday they were stunned by the strength of Chinese buying in the past month. “The demand is unbelievable. The size of the orders is enormous,” said one senior banker, who estimated that China had imported about 200 tonnes in three months.

On February 8th, Karen Maley in Australia’s Business Spectator discussed this growing phenomenon in her article, China’s gold tsunami: It’s not hard to understand the growing Chinese enthusiasm for gold. Officially, China’s inflation rate was 4.6 per cent in December, but many believe the actual inflation rate is considerably higher. But Chinese savers earn a paltry interest rate of 2.75 per cent on one-year deposits, which means that they face negative real interest rates.

Faced with these dismal returns, Chinese households and businesses have been pouring money into physical assets, such as food, real estate, and commodities as a hedge against inflation. Chinese authorities are now trying to quell property market speculation by making it more difficult for buyers to get bank finance for their second and third investment properties, and have begun experimenting with property taxes in some cities.

This has caused Chinese investors to turn to gold. According to the Sprott newsletter, China, which is already the world’s largest gold producer, imported more than 209 metric tons of gold in the first ten months of 2010 alone. This compares with the estimated 45 metric tons it imported in all of 2009.

DON’T WORRY ABOUT 2012
2011 IS HERE

The response to the 2008 global collapse set in motion an even greater danger - runaway inflation. In 2009 world governments attempted to offset the global collapse in demand with historic levels of liquidity. The excessive printing of money has now led to higher prices.

Prices, especially food prices are rapidly rising. Tyler Durden, www.zerohedge.com, makes this point with stunning clarity: One of the benefits of America finally seeing what Zimbabwe went through as it entered hyperinflation, ignoring for a second that the Zimbabwe stock market was the best performing market, putting Bernanke's liquidity pump to shame, is that very soon everyone will be naked, once companies finally realize they have no choice but to pass through surging input costs. And while some may be ecstatic by the S&P's modest rise YTD, it is nothing compared to what virtually every single agricultural product has done in the first month of 2011. To wit: Corn spot up 7.76%, wheat up 5.63%, Rice up 10.08%, Hogs up 10.16%, Sugar up 5.64%, Orange Juice up 3.33%, and cotton.... up 17.08%. That's in one month!

Rapidly rising food prices have already contributed to governments falling in Tunisia and Egypt. Other governments, well aware of the risk that inflationary food prices pose to their continued rule, are now stockpiling food to prevent further protests.

This buying will only drive the cost of food even higher: Jim Gerlach, of commodity brokerage A/C Trading, said: "Sovereign nations are beginning to stockpile food to prevent unrest." "You artificially stimulate much higher demand when nations start to increase stockpiles."

"This is only the start of the panic buying," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst at Singapore-based Phillip Futures. "I expect we'll have more countries coming in and buying grain.- Read here

INFLATION & THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD

Even the hardened paper boys on Wall Street are aware of inflation’s impact on the price of gold. The meteoric rise of gold in the late 1970s was caused by rapidly rising prices. In the last decade, however, gold began moving steadily higher as did all commodities in a disinflationary atmosphere. That, however, is about to change.

With gold already moving higher, the increasing inflationary impetus will send the price of gold far beyond its present price. Gold’s spectacular ascent in the 1970s is now about to be dwarfed.

Last night, I, Ralph T. Foster, our wives and another couple had dinner together and the topic turned to the future price of gold. There was agreement that while its ascent was certain, gold’s ultimate price was a matter of pure conjecture since the reference points used to value that price would be virtually worthless pieces of paper money.

History is the context within which our present circumstances present themselves. Of late, change has been so rapid that many believe the past is merely that which preceded the present. They are wrong.

History is about to repeat itself, albeit in a new iteration. Paper money’s journey to the west and back again is about to reach its fatal climax. Paper money’s ten-century drama is almost over; and while a new and better era will replace it, the collapse of the present era will be unprecedented in magnitude.

h/t John


Insider Traders Investigated For ETF Stripping, Or How The SEC Is Now Only 10 Years Behind The Curve

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:49 PM PST


The brilliant minds as the SEC have finally realized that when it comes to insider trading, they are and will forever continue to be, about 10 years behind the curve. To wit: today, for the first time we learn that the transvestite midget porn fanatics have realized that one can use ETFs, and, gasp, swaps to mask insider trades. So while the SEC brainiacs diligently scour for those who buy massive blocks of stock (or calls) 2 minutes ahead of an acquisition announcement, virtually everyone else has been sneaking by unscathed simply because they have, rightfully, assumed that the SEC are a bunch of retards. Such investigative brilliance deserves to be rewarded with at least one taxpayer funded screening of Long Dong Silver (oh wait, they may realize there could be manipulation in the silver market, and by none other than JP Morgan, if they were to watch that.)

More on this moment of unparalleled SEC serendipity:

The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether Wall Street traders are using exchange-traded funds as a means of disguising insider trading.

ETFs have emerged as a possible mechanism for maximising gains in one stock while potentially masking trading patterns, people familiar with the matter say.

In one scenario, a trader could learn information about a company, buy an ETF that includes the company’s stock, and short sell the other stocks in the ETF.

The practice, known as ETF-stripping, would allow the trader to benefit from movements in the company’s share price without directly buying or selling that stock.

And the money shot, er, line:

Regulators, who work closely with the US justice department, are concerned that traders are adopting this approach, and others, to mask insider trading.

They are concerned about this now, when this has been used by pretty much everyone in the hedge fund community for the past decade? How the hell stupid were all the analysts and traders in the Galleon-SAC insider trading circle to have been caught if the SEC has only figured out about this now???

And it gets funnier:

They are also looking into whether traders are using swaps to stay off their radar. The Dodd-Frank law will require a portion of swaps to trade on exchanges.

The punchline:

Law officials said they needed to use unconventional tactics because traders had become sophisticated.

Actually no, traders have always used these tactics. It is just the SEC that has forever been a bunch of beyond incompetent, porn-addicted rejects from any private jobs that actually pay anything.

But wait: there's more. Hedge funders, even those caught with their pants down, have a prearranged excuse:

The so-called mosaic theory, whereby investors gather large volumes of data to arrive at conclusions that look like they might be derived from insider trading, can be used as a legal defence.

One fund manager charged with insider trading on Tuesday allegedly told an analyst that he need not worry since he was using mosaic theory.

In other words, pretty soon the entire "get-Stevie" affair will fall appart at the seams after it becomes clear that not only is the SEC's enforcement division an evolutionary bottleneck in orangutan to simian evolution, but their lawyers are pretty much pro rata vertically in the whole Darwinian survivial of the dumbest game.


In The News Today

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:26 PM PST

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Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The OTC derivative gang did a lot better with no risk.

Tanker with $200 million in oil hijacked off Oman
Piracy 'spinning out of control into the entire Indian Ocean,' shipping spokesman says
By Jonathan Saul and Renee Maltezou

LONDON/ATHENS — Suspected Somali pirates captured a U.S.-bound tanker carrying around $200 million worth of crude oil in the Indian Ocean on Wednesday in one of the biggest hijackings in the area so far.

The hijacking marks a significant shift in piracy and the crisis could "strangle" vital shipping lanes, the association of supertanker owners warned.

The Irene SL, the length of three soccer pitches and with 25 crew members on board, was carrying about 2 million barrels of oil, or nearly one fifth of daily U.S. crude imports.

The hijacking came a day after an Italian tanker carrying oil worth more than $60 million was snatched by Somali pirates, reinforcing industry fears that the piracy scourge is "spinning out of control".

"This morning the vessel was attacked by armed men," the Irene SL's Greece-based manager Enesel said. "For the moment there is no communication with the vessel."

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

The states of the US as it pertains to the country's credit rating are the same as the states of the EU as it pertains to the credit rating of the EU.

Here comes the landslide.

New Jersey rating cut while Arizona outlook negative

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut New Jersey's bond rating a notch due to an unfunded pension shortfall and high debt, while Moody's Investors Service warned Arizona of a possible downgrade by revising its outlook on the state to negative from stable.

Concerns are mounting about the finances of state governments. Some in Congress have even suggested legislation to allow states to declare bankruptcy to help them put their finances in order.

State governments continue to struggle with the effects of the 2007-2009 recession. Their revenue remains weak and altogether they face budget deficits of at least $100 billion for the next fiscal year, beginning for most in summer.

S&P's action turns up the heat on New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. S&P downgraded New Jersey to AA-minus from AA two weeks before the Republican governor proposes his own fix for the state's shaky finances.

President Barack Obama is expected to propose some financial relief for states in his budget plan but Republican lawmakers say there is no support for the kind of rescue mounted for states in the $814 billion economic stimulus approved by the Democrat-run Congress in 2009.

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Have you noticed the group with the most volume in Egypt is the Brotherhood?

The media is dead wrong that the developments in Egypt are the birth of a durable Democracy. Democracy is not the answer in certain cultures.

Protesters return after Egypt's VP slams call for president's exit
By the CNN Wire Staff
February 9, 2011 7:09 a.m. EST

Cairo, Egypt (CNN) — A mass of protesters maintained their ground at the epicenter of demonstrations Wednesday after Egypt's vice president said the call for President Hosni Mubarak's immediate departure is disrespectful to the people of the country.

Protesters united in Cairo's Tahrir Square Wednesday for a 16th day of demonstrations. A massive Egyptian flag was sprawled across part of Tahrir, and by 1 p.m. (6 a.m. ET) a large section of the square was packed.

Meanwhile, another group of protesters tried to block the country's army from breaking up demonstrations near Egypt's parliament. The army tried to talk protesters into leaving, but demonstrators blocked off two ends of the street in front of the parliament.

"The word 'departure,' which is repeated by some of the protesters, is against the ethics of the Egyptians because Egyptians respect their elders and their president," Suleiman told a group of newspaper editors, according to a state-run news agency. "It is also an insulting word not only to the president but for the people of Egypt as a whole."

State-run Nile TV showed footage of Mubarak meeting Wednesday with the country's foreign minister and Alexander Sultanov, Russian deputy foreign minister and Mideast envoy. It was not immediately clear what the officials were discussing.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

What I find baffling is why a person who understands this problem accepts the derivative level at $600 trillion dollars just because the Bank for International Settlements changed the means of measure to Value to Maturity. Value to Maturity assumes the vast majority of OTC derivatives have value or will function, making it a sick cartoon. The real number is over one quadrillion one thousand forty-four trillion dollars.

Derivatives: The Real Reason Bernanke Funnels Trillions Into Wall Street Banks

We've been over the numerous BS excuses that US Dollar destroyer extraordinaire Ben Bernanke has made for QE enough times that today I'd rather simply focus on the REAL reason he continues to funnel TRILLIONS of Dollars into the Wall Street Banks.

I've written this analysis before. But given the enormity of what it entails, it's worth repeating. The following paragraphs are the REAL reason Bernanke does what he does no matter what any other media outlet, book, investment expert, or guru tell you.

Bernanke is printing money and funneling it into the Wall Street banks for one reason and one reason only. That reason is: DERIVATIVES.

According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities for the Second Quarter 2010 (most recent), the notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks is around $223.4 TRILLION.

Five banks account for 95% of this. Can you guess which five?

click to enlarge

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Looks a lot like a list of the banks that Ben Bernanke has focused on bailing out/ backstopping/ funneling cash since the Financial Crisis began, doesn't it? When you consider the insane level of risk exposure here, you can see why the TRILLIONS he's funneled into these institutions has failed to bring them even to pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels.

More…


Alan Grayson On Mortgage Fraud (Lack Of) Accountability: "President Obama... Let These Crooks Off The Hook"

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 01:17 PM PST


Now that Alan Grayson is no longer in Congress, Fed hearings have certainly lost that certain dose of panache which only a man, wearing a dollar sign tie, and cross examining the Fed's General Counsel which grinning like a diabolical Tasmanian Devil, would bring to the table. We managed to catch up with Grayson during today's session of Radio Free Dylan, in which the traditionally opinionated Fed critic had some very choice words about the President. In essence, the former Florida Democrat said that it is none other than the President, who is the reason there have been no prosecutions on banks: " I am not only blaming the Obama administration, if the Bush administration had its head on straight they would have prevented a lot of these things from happening to start with. But the President Obama administration said at the beginning, we are going to look forward and not back and therefore in the process of making that decision basically let these crooks off the hook." But that's ok - see the SEC, which incidentally has to give a person by person org chart and job description of its 3,500 porn addicts before it receive one additional penny of funding, is about to catch one or two criminal masterminds who bought some NYX calls after the information of today's merger, which was so badly leaked that virtually everyone knew about the deal ahead of the announcement, are about to spend some time in prison. In the meantime, all those who knowingly and willfully committed crimes in the great housing pump and dump (up to and including misrepresenting underwriting documents), are about to get away scott-free. Thank you Mr. President. That's some might fine change you got there.

More choice selections from the Ratigan-Taz interview.

On the complete lack of prosecutions and Obama's responsibility:

DYLAN:  Couple of last questions and then I will let you go. One thing that came out in the FCIC report and Bill Greider did a great job of highlighting this — was the explicit introduction of known to be fraudulent mortgages.  They have been audited by Clayton Holdings which is one of the bigger auditing firms if not the biggest auditing firms of these documents.  They were knowingly and knowingly insofar as they had been reviewed by Clayton Holdings, then installed inside of investments and sold to pension funds, et cetera et cetera, where then the banks would go out and buy insurance on that that obviously paid a lot of money when the government stepped in to bail out AIG who was one of the big insurers.

How is it that after the Great Depression, there were blue sky laws that said it is illegal to sell a worthless piece of paper as if it is stock in the company if its just Alan Grayson and Dylan Ratigan have gone downtown with a piece of paper with their names on it and they are selling it for money even though there is actually no business.  We created laws to prevent people from doing that sort of thing. And yet we found here that mortgages that have been deemed by some official authority — an auditor in this case — as nonconforming, will not get paid back, noncompliant with illegal investment standards for you, American pension fund, for you American mortgage buyer, Fannie Freddie etcetera, and then the FCIC comes out, shows that these fraudulent mortgages were being packaged and sold by Goldman, Deutsche, Morgan, the list goes on and yet, we have yet to see a single meaningful fraud investigation. I mean these guys makes Bernie Madoff look like Romper Room.

REP. GRAYSON: Well that’s right, and what it comes down to is they have been protected by one thing and one thing only which is prosecutor discretion. There is no doubt in a situation like that that people committed crimes, but in order to prosecute them for that you need to have a prosecutor who is willing to do it. And that is something that seems to have eluded us in the past, I guess, three years now. I am not only blaming the Obama administration, if the Bush administration had its head on straight they would have prevented a lot of these things from happening to start with.

But the President Obama administration said at the beginning, we are going to look forward and not back and therefore in the process of making that decision basically let these crooks off the hook.

DYLAN: And what does that sort of decision make, I call Obama the “turn the page president” whether it is war crimes, banking crimes or anything else, is there a point where the decision not to prosecute blatant crimes that are destructive to society really starts to breach the public trust with the government just because the President doesn’t really want to deal with the mess?

REP. GRAYSON:  It’s actually worst than that. The same people who were committing fraud and crimes at Bear Stearns, they are now committing fraud and crimes at Bank of America, at Goldman Sachs and other institutions, because it turns out that crime does pay. It turns out that if you steal a large amount of money that leads to the collapse of your institutions, there’s jobs for you somewhere else.

On the auditing the Fed process, for which Grayson, alongside Paul, had a major contribution in getting at least some partial disclosure from Bernanke:

Tim Geithner said when it was time to finish the bill on financial reform, he told people that his highest priority was to make sure – and this is the bill that was supposed to save America — to keep us from having a bail out — make sure that we didn’t have a total collapse of the economic system.

He said that his highest priority was to make sure that there was no auditing of the Fed! (laughs) So, in the fact of that kind of resistance, we were able to win and win big.  I mean we have now the first independent audit and nothing really bad has happened so far. People were saying well if you audit the Fed, the economy will collapse. Hasn’t happened yet and I think that people are going to realize the Fed  should be a responsible government body just like every other government body. We need to look behind the curtain and find out exactly what’s going on.

DYLAN:  What do you think Tim Geithner is so afraid would be found?

REP. GRAYSON:  I don’t know but I am sure that Tim Geithner didn’t want the Fed audited because Tim Geithner didn’t want Tim Geithner audited, he worked for the New York Fed, led the New York Fed for years before he became Treasury Secretary — and frankly it sounded a bit self serving to me that he said that.
DYLAN:  And what do you and not just you but I’ll add Dr. Ron Paul to it — what do the two of you think was so important about auditing the Fed?

REP. GRAYSON:  Well, what I think we are going to find is something that we’ve already have a little taste of here and there, which is that the Fed has made an enormous deals with entities like Citibank on terms that were completely unfair to the taxpayers. We got a little shred of information about that because one of those deals happened to be one involving the treasury, it has to be a released to us and we found that the Fed had assumed $238 billion dollars of liability from Citibank on mortgage back securities in exchange for nothing. I think we are going to find more deals like that and people are going to scratch their heads and say why are we doing this? Why are we allowing our money to be used in the secret bailouts of three or four or five or six institutions without people even finding out about it except for the fact that we pass this legislation to help to find out. The fed has been out of control now for quite a while and helping its friends at the expense of the rest of us.

DYLAN:  And why are we doing that? Why are we – why have we accepted a system in your opinion that allows a relatively anonymous, highly secretive group of people to provide infinite access of money to people who not only create no apparent value but creates lots of apparent loss?

REP. GRAYSON:  Because the banking system and the bankers, the people in charge of the system have created this meme that the Fed can do no wrong and it has to remain independent of everybody and everything. It is almost as if they believe that the Chairman of the Fed is the Wizard of Oz and it’s not true. I mean the Fed has the authority to create money but it should not have the authority to make the kind of deals that we’ve been seeing where they create massive liability off the books of their favorites while small community banks and small businesses suffer and get nothing. At one point we demonstrated that they had – lent so much money to the Central Bank in New Zealand that it corresponds to $4,000 for every single person in New Zealand. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Feds can extend that kind of credit to Americans?

And on Grayson's next steps:

DYLAN:  Last question, whether you are serving in the United States Congress or not, you are a well-versed and well-educated man, you are a young man and you are a man of immense passion, and a very strong point of view and capacity to deliver impactful blows in the advocacy or the things that you believe most passionately in. Which is an extraordinary long way of my asking you, what are you going to do next to keep having an impact on American culture, American policy and the future of America’s development and eternal quest for fairness?

REP. GRAYSON: I don’t know but I will tell you that one of my personal heroes is Howard Dean because Howard Dean came within a few inches of the Presidency, and didn’t make it in a way that must have had some serious effects on his point of view of the kind of person he was and what he meant to the world. And after he lost and had gotten knocked down, he dusts himself up, picks himself up and gave the Democratic Party through his work with the DNC a majority in the House and in the Senate and ultimately the White House. So maybe there is no second act in America life or maybe there is, we will just have to see.

Full interview can be heard here.


Under the Big Stock Market Top

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 12:05 PM PST

1,332. That is a 100% in the S&P since it's March 2009 low of 666 (see David Fry's chart).  Does it matter?  Can we expect even a LITTLE pullback after a 100% run or is it "to the moon Alice" and maybe Mars and Jupiter while we're at it as the Federal Reserve's multi-Trillion Dollar thrusters send us to the stars, breaking the bonds of gravity (and logic) as they send stocks every higher in an expanding universe of freshly supplied money.  As fellow stock market physicist, Art Cashin said yesterday: 


“Without persistent (and rising) food imports, Egypt cannot feed itself. It has managed to cover up the shortfall by having enough oil to export, but, like every country, their oil reserves are finite and eventually they'll face a day of reckoning.&

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:12 AM PST

Egypt's Warning: Are You Listening? MK: In 2007, the world hit peak credit and peak oil. When the US went off the gold tie in 1971 an era of globalization fueled by cheap 'petro-dollars' began – that bulged the demand for credit and oil. By 2007 the global GDP weighed in at over 60 trillion [...]


Silver and Gold Price Both Remain in an Uptrend With All Indicators On Go, or Are They?

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:09 AM PST

Gold Price Close Today : 1364.80
Change : 1.40 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.273
Change : 0.002 cents or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 45.08
Change : 0.043 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02218
Change : -0.000021 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1854.10
Change : -3.80 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 830.25
Change : -7.15 or -0.9%

S&P 500 : 1,320.88
Change : -3.69 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $185.39
Change : $ (0.07) or 0.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.968
Change : -0.003 or 0.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 404.32
Change : 0.22 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,239.89
Change : 6.74 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 77.59
Change : -0.406 or -0.5%

Y'all might expect me to be a drooling cheerleader for SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE, but I'll tell you, today inspireth not. Gold rose $1.40 to $1,364.80; silver rose 2/10 (two-tenths) of a cent to 3027.3c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO climbed a bit to 45.08.

I've pored over charts till my eyelids have bled, but I still have no certainty what's happening. There is precedent for this indecision at gold/silver ratio reaction highs (made after a long fall and low) but not at the lows. Usually the ratio drops straight down, then springs straight up, no indecision, no hesitation. There's always a first time, I suppose, but it seemeth more logical that it foretells another silver and gold price rise, but today's closes are tired, tired, and plumb out of breath.

Yet silver and gold both remain in an uptrend with all indicators on go. Well, that's not QUITE accurate. RSI and MACD point up, but silver bumped today against its top Bollinger Band and gold isn't far from the same barrier. Bollinger Bands delimit two standard deviations from the 20 day moving average, and only rarely does a move pierce that boundary, up or down. That argues for a slight rebound down off the Bollinger Bands at least.

For the nonce, watch GOLD downside at $1,355, because it shouldn't violate that support, and must not violate $1,345. Up above it must challenge and conquer $1,380.

Watch SILVER to see how it acts at 2970c, and at 3000c. Above silver must breach 3050c. I'm not a traffic cop, but I know where the curbs are.

Forgot to mention that premium (actually a discount, or, as a creative government bureaucrat might say it, a "negative premium") on US 90% silver coin fell today. That's a little hint silver is getting heavy.

I was surprised to hear from a reader today that he didn't know that we sell silver and gold. In case some of the rest of y'all don't know either, yes, we do -- or at least, we try to. Y'all will find ordering instructions at the bottom of this email every day.

It's hard, hard, hard to befriend the US dollar, like trying to befriend a meth-head. About the time you think it's going straight, it falls again. Today the US dollar index fell 40.6 basis points (0.52%) to 77.593. Just getting CLOSE to the 20 day moving average (78.17) slapped the dollar silly.

Best the dollar might hope for is that the chart is building an upside down head and shoulders (see stockcharts.com, "$usd", 6 month chart, OHLC bars). If that's true, the dollar index will not dip below 77.50. Otherwise, it is merely meandering its way to perdition.

The Dollar Index's MACD, by the way, has turned up.

In my short life I've seen some big whoppers, but I have hardly ever seen a lie as shameless as today's Dow close. Every other stock index was down, and the Dow itself spent a tortured day trying to stand up and getting kicked in the teeth. Every other index closed down, S&P500 down 3.69 at 1,320.88, but not the Dow. Look there on the far right side of the chart, that little booger there. Right, that's the uptick at day's end that raised the Dow 6.74 to 12,239.89. See, that's the thing about the Nice Government Men: they ain't subtle.

Stocks remain the nasty used sneakers in the Great Investment Shoe Store. Leave 'em alone or you might catch something fungal.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.


Gold Markets At A Crossroad – What Now?

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:08 AM PST

We are very bullish for the long-term for the resource sector, i.e., gold, silver and the resource shares. However, we need to live life and the markets in real time and the question is where are we now and what should investors do, if anything? The big question mark is for the short-term (several weeks) and the immediate term (1 – 3 months).


How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle? - February 9, 2011

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:00 AM PST

How Much More Demand Can Silver Handle? - Casey's Daily Dispatch [LIST] [*]Sign Up Now! [*]| [*]RSS Feed [*]| [*]Print this [*]| [*]Visit the Archives [*]| [*]Email to a Friend [*]| [*]Back to All Publications [/LIST] February 9, 2011 | [url]www.CaseyResearch.com[/url] Dear Reader, Everyone is familiar with the myth that booms can last forever. But another, less noticeable myth takes hold right when the boom begins to weaken. It's the idea that the central bank can slowly unwind apparent problems on the horizon. The U.S. experienced this during...


WikiLeaks’ Old News

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 11:00 AM PST

The 5 min. Forecast February 09, 2011 02:01 PM by Addison Wiggin - February 9, 2011 [LIST] [*]Breaking news: WikiLeaks exposes the sham of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves [*]Somali pirates make one of their biggest strikes yet: Byron King on why it's even more alarming than the industry is letting on [*]Silver holds firm above $30… How China could drive it to $100 [*]Newest indignity for Romania's witches: Fines and prison terms if their predictions don't pan out [/LIST] We've suspected for some time Saudi Arabia has less oil in the ground than they claim. Apparently so do diplomats in the U.S. State Department... at least, according to even more scintillating cables released from Julian Assange's WikiLeaks website. The cables come from inside the Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco. In 2007, Aramco's former head of exploration Sadad al-Husseini told the U.S. consul general in Riyadh that the firm had purposely overstated its reserves by 40% to spu...


Showdown in the Metals Markets: Let's Get Ready to Rumble

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:55 AM PST


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold at Unchanged

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:22 AM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com February 09, 2011 07:48 AM 240 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold has held a multiyear support line. However, the decline from 1425.40 is in 5 waves, indicating that the larger trend is most likely down. Price has reached the 50% retracement of the impulsive decline, with the 61.8% at 1380.82 serving as additional resistance if needed. Expectations are for the corrective advance to terminate....


The World Priced in Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:18 AM PST

If gold really was money today, what would equities, housing, commodities and bonds look like...?
 

read more


Taylor MacDonald: The Perfect Storm for Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:18 AM PST

Source: Sally Lowder of The Gold Report 02/09/2011 A lot of short-term peaks and troughs can make things messy in the resource space, and the associated volatility can whipsaw people out of investments. "Still," says Pathfinder Asset Management Limited's Associate Portfolio Manager Taylor MacDonald, "the long-term picture itself is very much intact." The U.S. dollar is in the process of breaking down, and that will ultimately be supportive of gold. "And when you sidecar the dollar breakdown with quantitative easing, he says, "you essentially have a perfect storm forming for gold." Find out why Taylor expects the junior mining space to shine even brighter in 2011 in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. The Gold Report: There was certainly a buzz surrounding junior mining at the recent Cambridge House Conference, but first please tell us a little bit about your mandate at Pathfinder Asset Management in terms of companies you invest in and clients you serve. T...


WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:16 AM PST

Gold futures steady in quiet trading

The COMEX April gold futures contract closed up $1.40 Wednesday at $1365.50, trading between $1358.30 and $1367.70

February 9, p.m. excerpts:
(from Reuters)
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben BernankeGold was little changed as the market was underpinned by a U.S. dollar drop and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's comment that he had no plans to scrap a massive bond-buying program, indicating interest rates will not rise any time soon. In testimony to Congress, Bernanke suggested US economic conditions were still too weak for the central bank to pull back on its vast monetary stimulus, despite a welcome drop in the jobless rate…more
(from Dow Jones)
Gold futures kept in a tight trading range throughout the day as metal traders kept one eye on Bernanke's testimony to the House Budget Committee, which began at 10 a.m. EST. The quiet trading day helped gold retain the sharp gains logged in the previous trading session. Gold prices gained 1.2% Tuesday, after an interest rate hike in China reinforced inflation concerns in the Asian nation and heightened worries about long-term inflation in the U.S. A slight decline in the dollar also helped gold futures…more
(from TheStreet)
The U.S. dollar index was 0.48% lower at $77.59 while the euro was up 0.71% at $1.37 against the dollar. Gold for April delivery added $1.40 to $1,365.50 an ounce at the Comex. Gold prices were up 0.57% in the Chinese yuan a day after the country's central bank hiked interest rates by 25 basis points. The hike left the one-year deposit rate at 3% compared with the 4.6% inflation rate, meaning that money kept in the bank will still lose value prompting citizens to seek other investment avenues, like gold…more
(from Marketwatch)
Gold futures usually benefit from inflation concerns as the metal is seen as the ultimate store of wealth. Recent price weakness in the precious metal has been taken as "an attractive opportunity for physical gold buying," said analysts at Commerzbank. "Additional support … could come from China's return to the market after the Lunar New Year Festival. High demand both from private and institutional investors is likely to remain a major support factor for gold prices in the medium to long term."…more

see full news, 24-hr newswire…


The Violent Declines the Follow Overbought Rallies

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 10:00 AM PST

I am as skeptical as the next guy about technical analysis, maybe more so, so I was kind of intrigued when Robert McHugh of Main Line Investors wrote an essay titled "Time Analysis of the Coming Market Top."

He writes, "We have identified when an extended overbought rally has likely reached its expiration date." And what is this time frame? "Two and a half months," he says.

This "two and half months" time frame is particularly intriguing to me, as this is the approximate time it took for my wife to realize that marrying me was the worst mistake of her Whole Freaking Life (WFL).

Without showing the usual sympathy that my wife gets from her friends and family, the parallels are eerily obvious when he goes on that "once this condition reaches the 2.5 month age, the rally not only ends, but a sharp, sometimes violent decline begins."

Violent declines! That's it! Of course, there are those who say that since she did not actually hit me with anything that she threw at me, it cannot be termed "violent," although nobody is contending that it wasn't a "decline" in our relationship.

But this has taught me two valuable lessons. One is that I should never pick her to be on my softball team because she obviously can't throw worth a crap.

The other one is that there is perhaps something profound about this "two and half months" thing.

And apparently there is, because he goes on, "Guess what? We are inside one of these overbought extended rally periods, which will reach the 2.5 month age over the next week. So, based upon this time analysis, we could be about to see markets drop sharply, perhaps violently."

And this "violent drop" in the stock market is when, I assume, people will slap themselves on the forehead and exclaim, "What in the hell am I doing to be risking my entire net worth in the corrupt stock market, when even an idiot can see that, even in a completely honest market, it is impossible for all the people to take more money out of the stock market than they put into it, a dismal mathematical fact that is borne out by the entire last century of seeing the vast majority of people losing money by investing in stocks!"

And it is worse than that, as the few who do "make money" actually broke even since the money they took out in "gains" had less buying power than the money they put in! Hahaha! April fools, chumps!

If you want to know how accumulating a retirement nest egg really works, it is when people save a fraction of their weekly income by putting it in the bank, whereupon the bank would pay them enough interest on the deposited funds to stay even with inflation.

For the more adventurous, investing maybe 10% of their savings in the stock market was considered a "bold move," especially seeing that most people lost most of that money, although there are always enough successes to keep people doing it. Gathering enough successes is the trick!

Of course, nowadays, with the despicable Federal Reserve forcing interest rates to zero in a pathetic, desperate, frantic attempt to reverse the calamity caused by its previous incompetence and Keynesian stupidities, saving money in the bank is foolish since they pay the depositors about 0.1%, if that.

Certificates of Deposit are now paying an average of 0.41%, which means, with inflation running at more than 6%, that the stupid owner of a Certificate of Deposit is losing 5.59% and ordinary depositors are losing the whole 6%! Hahaha! Suckers!

I know what you are thinking. You are thinking, "What in the hell is the point of all this? Do you have a point, or is this just more of you running your Stupid Mogambo Mouth (SMM) until we are sick of listening to you and that is why nobody likes you?"

Well, it's a "bad news/good news" thing. The bad news is that I don't know why I run my mouth so much or why people don't like me, which I figure only shows how hateful and stupid they all are, and how those treacherous bastards are always "out to get me," as I always suspected.

The good news, on the other hand, is that I do have a point. The point is, to what I assume is your obvious delight, twofold. Firstly, for those of you who are optimistic enough to invest your money in the hopes of a big score, Mr. McHugh seems pretty confident of shorting the indexes.

Secondly, buying gold and silver is a guaran-freaking-teed winner of an investment by virtue of 4,500 years of history, massive undervaluation due to decades of governments and markets manipulating their prices to be low, incipient hyperinflation due to the odious Federal Reserve creating So Freaking Much Money (SFMM) and the foul Obama administration deficit-spending almost $2 trillion a year ($6,536 dollars for every man, woman and child in America), and (most importantly) exploding demand for the metals but falling supply.

And you can keep gold and silver with you at home, warm and snuggly, and not have to deal with banksters or custodians of any kind, who I assume are, even as we speak, thinking of new ways to screw you Good And Hard (GAH).

And since buying gold and silver is so easy ("Here is my money. Give me my metal!"), what can you do except say, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!"

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

The Violent Declines the Follow Overbought Rallies originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


Costs and exploration the big issues for gold miners

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 09:50 AM PST

by Geoff Candy
miningWednesday , 09 Feb 2011 (Mineweb) — While most investors interested in the gold market are focused on where prices are going and, in most cases, how much higher they are likely to go, the miners themselves are more focused on how much it costs to get the metal out of the ground and, increasingly, where the new metal is going to come from.

Speaking to Mineweb at the Mining Indaba in Cape Town, AngloGold Ashanti CEO, Mark Cutifani, said it costs more than $1,000/oz to produce an ounce of gold when you take project development, exploration and all the other costs – cash operating costs and sustaining capital – into account.

Asked whether this means that gold is unlikely to go much below $1,000 an ounce, Cutifani said: "I believe the likelihood is that we're in the right territory and it's unlikely that we'll see a trade much below $1,000 for any length of time… anything under – in my view – $1,000/oz would see a fairly quick shakedown in terms of production capacity and that would be the thing that would drive the price back up again."

Randgold Resources CEO, Mark Bristow agrees adding … that costs are an interesting dilemma for the industry, "the real driver of costs at this time is always grade and so the pressures that you're seeing in the costs – and it's easy to blame fuel which is a real cost for some – but what you're seeing is an ever decreasing pay limit as the gold price goes up, and the industry tries to keep producing more and keeping their reserves intact."

[source]

RS View: Increased costs and lower rates of production both arise from the natural business inclination toward "low-grading" into higher prices. This proclivity to extend mine life through low-grading is one of the primary reasons that investments in mining shares often fail to measure up consistently to the the sort of leverage that their promoters always claim they will offer atop movements in the gold price.

AND ALSO . . .

Miners, and government – partnership or nationalism?
by Geoff Candy
Wednesday, 09 Feb 2011 (Mineweb) — … As the global economy tried to get its motor running again without flooding the engine, countries the world over – especially those with big resources industries – couldn't help but notice how well commodities were doing.

In Australia, the furore over a proposed mining tax led to a new prime minister and a sudden uncertainty on the part of the mining industry about whether or not to invest heavily in the country. In South Africa, continued calls for the nationalization of mines by various corners of the political scene were met with forceful resistance both by companies and, indeed by Minister of Mines Susan Shabangu. And, in a number of other mining jurisdictions, the royalties imposed on miners were raised.

… Speaking on Mineweb.com's Metals Weekly podcast, Ernst & Young's global leader for Metals, Mike Elliot expects that governments are likely to look increasingly toward equity participation as way of getting their own, bigger slice of the resources pie.

"What we've seen in the first round [of the reemergence of resource nationalism] was things which are directly related to fiscal outcome, so the two most common manifestations we saw in 2010 was the change in the royalty or tax regimes and its one of those things that once you've had a first and second mover, then it provided essentially global coverage for others to do something similar.

"The second part we saw was that there were a lot of nations which were impacted by the global financial crisis where the slowdown in capital projects meant that they were deferring the government revenue stream to sometime much more distant in the future, and that really wasn't seen as satisfactory by a lot of these nations' states. So we saw them invoking the use it orlose it clauses in order to try and accelerate some of that activity.

"Going forward, we probably see there being a greater interest in government participation in the financial wealth – not just through taxation, but maybe through greater equity interests or direct participation in new mining projects".

Giles Taylor, Head of EMEA Mining and Metals at Barclays Capital agrees that we are likely to see a greater degree of partnership between miners and governments but says it is more a renewed awareness of the commodity sphere, rather than pure nationalism.

"Resources are quite a political play now, all around the world, countries want to work with partners to develop their assets; there is more focus on resources now by governments than there was maybe 2 or 3 years ago."

see more…
[source]


Guest Post: Fifty Ways To Leave Your Lender

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 09:40 AM PST


Submitted byTerry Coxon of Casey Research

Fifty Ways to Leave Your Lender

It was Otto von Bismarck who explained that “politics is the art of the possible.” We can thank him for that much, but he didn’t tell the whole story. I’ll give you the rest of it. Politics is the art of the possible fictions you can get away with.

Politics is mostly dissembling, and the dissembling is mostly about dodging personal responsibility for the messes governments make. It works out that way because making messes is most of what governments do. So when we ponder how the U.S. government will go about defaulting on its debts, a good way to approach the question is to consider how a default might be presented.

At this point there is no room for doubting that the government will renege on the commitments it has made to give people money. The $9.2 trillion in Treasury securities held by the public is just the tip of the iceberg. Estimates differ, but if you add in the unfunded obligations for Social Security and Medicare, it’s hard to avoid getting a total that exceeds $80 trillion. That works out to $260,000 for every man, woman, and child in the country, including the two-year olds. It can’t be paid, so it won’t be paid.

But don’t expect any clarity about the matter. Whatever happens, you can count on it not being called a default. No one in the U.S. government is going to say, “Tough luck, Treasury bond investors. We’re not going to pay you another dime. Go pound sand.” And no politician is going to tell the 51 million Americans on Social Security, “If you’re fit enough to pump that rocker, you’re fit enough to work.” It will all be done far more diplomatically.

Entitlement Euthanasia

Defaulting on Social Security is a lesser public relations challenge than defaulting on U.S. Treasury securities because the promise of a monthly Social Security check has always been a promise in flux. Payout rates have been raised repeatedly and now are indexed for inflation. On the other side of the ledger, the rates and ceilings on FICA tax have been raised repeatedly, as have the eligibility ages. It’s easier to renege on a quid pro quo when neither the quid nor the quo is ever allowed to come to rest.

Also helping to make a default on Social Security politically manageable is that each participant has been promised something different. Some people are owed a lifetime annuity right now. Others are owed something that isn’t scheduled to start until 40 years from now. So the politicians have a way to focus the default on the groups who aren't inclined to complain too much – the people who are aren't expecting to receive anything soon.


One way to focus the default on the far tomorrow is to steadily increase the eligibility age. For example, the eligibility age could be raised by one month every calendar year.

The government already has some practice at this. When the program began, the age for eligibility was 65. Now the eligibility age for full benefits depends on when a person was born. If you didn't open your eyes before 1960, your eligibility age is 67.

A secular rise in the eligibility age would shrink the government's Social Security debt to whatever size the government is actually able to pay. It could even be used, with little pain, to eliminate the program altogether. You could call it euthanasia for Social Security, although your congressman surely won't.

The trillions in unfunded Medicare promises can be shrunk to a manageable size in much the same way – gradually raise the age for eligibility. And it all can be done in the name of "protecting the system so that the elderly can count on receiving every dime they have been promised."

Shrugging Off Treasury Debt

Defaulting on U.S. Treasury securities while denying the fact is a bigger challenge, but it can be done.

One avenue would be default through inflation. Pay all the dollars that have been promised, but make those dollars smaller and smaller in purchasing power. That would be simple to accomplish if all the Treasury securities outstanding were 30-year bonds. Over a period of 30 years, a price inflation rate of just 10% per year would vaporize 94% of the purchasing power of a 30-year bond. Poof! No more debt problem.

But in fact the trillions in U.S. Treasury securities aren't all 30-year bonds. The average maturity of Treasury debt (bonds, notes, and bills) is only six years. As debt comes due, it can be refinanced only by issuing new bonds, notes, or bills at then current interest rates – which would be rising to match the market's experience with inflation.

So for the government to default on its debt through inflation, it wouldn't be enough for the Federal Reserve to engineer a high inflation rate and stick to it. The default would require progressively higher and higher inflation rates, to outpace the rise in interest rates that the preceding year's price inflation would constantly be fueling.

Eroding the dollar's value may turn out to be an important element in shrugging off debt, but given an average debt maturity of just six years, the shrinking-dollar strategy couldn't accomplish enough without pushing inflation rates toward triple digits. To rely on inflation as the primary means of default without going near triple-digit territory, the government would first need to lengthen the average maturity of Treasury debt, for example by replacing maturing T-bills with long-term bonds. The cover story would be about the prudence of issuing long-term debt with a fixed, known interest cost, rather than being subject to the interest rate volatility of the T-bill market.

Another maneuver to lengthen the maturity of Treasury debt, in preparation for a slow default through inflation, is for the government to announce that while it is committed to paying everything it owes, it just can't pay it on time. But not to worry, because the government will continue to pay interest – at whatever rate was promised when the security was issued – for as long as the delay persists. That would in effect turn T-bills and Treasury notes into long-term T-bonds. That seems heavy-handed, but it still leaves room for denying the fact of a default. And it's been done before by a number of countries, under the label of "rescheduling."

A Political Triple Play

If the government decides to take any of these approaches to a deniable default, it would be politically more advantageous to stiff foreigners rather than U.S. investors. That would require getting most of the outstanding Treasury securities into the hands of foreigners. It could be done.

The U.S. imposes withholding at a rate of 30% on dividends and other types of investment income paid to non-U.S. investors. But there is a very broad exemption for interest payments. So under current rules, foreigners can invest in most types of bonds issued in the U.S. without losing anything to withholding.

A simple way to stick foreigners with the pain of a default would be to extend the withholding system to cover corporate bonds but not Treasury bonds. Non-U.S. investors would then have a compelling motive to replace their holdings of U.S. corporate bonds with Treasury bonds. T-bonds would flow out of the U.S. and corporate bonds would flow in. Most of the portfolio adjusting would be done within a year or so. Then the government would change the rules again. Withholding would be extended to Treasury bonds, at 30%, or at some higher rate, say 40%.

Most of the value (and most of the debt burden) represented by a long-term bond is in the interest payments, not in the principal. Imposing withholding on the interest at a rate of 40% comes close to a 40% default on the debt. It would be done in the name of balancing the budget (everyone’s for that) and as a counterattack on tax havens (where devious rich people hide their money), and it would be done to foreigners (many of whom are Chinese exporters that have been taking advantage of the U.S. for far too long). A political triple play.


The Truth Behind Saudi Arabia’s Oil Supply

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 09:15 AM PST

We've suspected for some time Saudi Arabia has less oil in the ground than they claim. Apparently so do diplomats in the US State Department…at least, according to even more scintillating cables released from Julian Assange's WikiLeaks website.

The cables come from inside Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco.

In 2007, Aramco's former head of exploration Sadad al-Husseini told the US consul general in Riyadh that the firm had purposely overstated its reserves by 40% to spur foreign investment.

"Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term," reads one of the cables. "Clearly, they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."

None of this will be news to longtime readers, but it might register a minor blip on the EKG of the couch-surfing nightly news set. It could even make an impression on readers of the Drudge Report, where the headline is prominently displayed this morning.

Ultimately, however, the revelation that the Saudis are 40% less impressive than they were yesterday will have little impact.

"The bottom line is that in the short term," says our oil analyst, the vastly popular Byron King, "Saudi's problem doesn't really matter. They'll export as much oil as they need to cover their bills and shape the price environment. The tankers will sail.

"Medium term, Saudi will have trouble meeting its goals. But characteristically, the Saudis will cover up the problem.

"Long term, every day that we don't plan for new ways of running the energy-consuming part of the world is another day closer to disaster."

Addison Wiggin
for The Daily Reckoning

The Truth Behind Saudi Arabia's Oil Supply originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


WikiLeaks’ Old News

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 09:01 AM PST

by Addison Wiggin - February 9, 2011

  • Breaking news: WikiLeaks exposes the sham of Saudi Arabia's oil reserves
  • Somali pirates make one of their biggest strikes yet: Byron King on why it's even more alarming than the industry is letting on
  • Silver holds firm above $30… How China could drive it to $100
  • Newest indignity for Romania's witches: Fines and prison terms if their predictions don't pan out

We've suspected for some time Saudi Arabia has less oil in the ground than they claim. Apparently so do diplomats in the U.S. State Department... at least, according to even more scintillating cables released from Julian Assange's WikiLeaks website.

The cables come from inside the Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco.

In 2007, Aramco's former head of exploration Sadad al-Husseini told the U.S. consul general in Riyadh that the firm had purposely overstated its reserves by 40% to spur foreign investment.

"Our mission now questions how much the Saudis can now substantively influence the crude markets over the long term," reads one of the cables. "Clearly, they can drive prices up, but we question whether they any longer have the power to drive prices down for a prolonged period."

None of this will be news to longtime readers of The 5, but it might register a minor blip on the EKG of the couch-surfing nightly news set. It could even make an impression on readers of the Drudge Report, where the headline is prominently displayed this morning.

Ultimately, however, the revelation that the Saudis are 40% less impressive than they were yesterday will have little impact.

"The bottom line is that in the short term," says our oil analyst, the vastly popular Byron King, "Saudi's problem doesn't really matter. They'll export as much oil as they need to cover their bills and shape the price environment. The tankers will sail.

"Medium term, Saudi will have trouble meeting its goals. But characteristically, the Saudis will cover up the problem."

"Long term, every day that we don't plan for new ways of running the energy-consuming part of the world is another day closer to disaster." Byron's been covering this looming disaster for the better part of the past decade.

Yesterday, we noted some irregularities in the Iranian system of producing oil and gas for consumption. With today's revelations the gap between the #1 (Saudi Arabia) and #2 (Iran) OPEC producers gets a little slimmer. With it, we suspect, will go political influence and the ability to attract capital for exploiting those reserves. That... and the continuing destabilization of already dicey region.

Our New Oil War scenario just got another shot of adrenaline care of Mr. Assange.

[Ed note. For a sneaky way to legally "steal" oil from Iran's largest known field, we recommend you follow this presentation, right here. Provided, of course, Somali pirates don't beat you to the punch.]

Said Somali pirates have just seized a U.S.-bound supertanker off the coast of Oman. In one of the biggest raids yet, the pirates managed to get their hands on the Irene SL... and 2 million barrels of crude. Roughly 20% of the amount the U.S. imports every day.

The Irene SL: Bold pirates seize a supertanker
longer than three football fields

The attack marks "a significant shift in the impact of the piracy crisis," according to Joe Angelo, managing director of INTERTANKO, the association whose members own the majority of the world's tanker fleet. "If piracy in the Indian Ocean is left unabated, it will strangle these crucial shipping lanes with the potential to severely disrupt oil flows to the U.S. and to the rest of the world."

"Do you know how hard it is to find a target," asks Byron King, "even a large one, 100 miles out to sea, in deep, blue water? Then intercept a moving ship, close to range, board and take it over?

"There must be some truth to the stories about how the pirates have moles within the world shipping and insurance community," Byron goes on, saying what the industry guys won't: "identifying potential targets, cargo load, time of passage, course, speed, etc."

More on this story is sure to come.

Gold is holding on tight to its gains from yesterday. The spot price is $1,365.

"There is a seasonality to gold, and very often it doesn't start running until the end of February," Robin Griffiths, private wealth strategist at Cazenove Capital in London told blogger Eric King this morning.

"Once we get into March, I think we can expect it to start motoring higher again."

Longer term, the sky's the limit.

"I think gold's secular trend will go a long way higher," says Griffiths. "So far, it's been a linear trend from $250 to $1,400, and technicians always know these things end up going exponential... If we haven't gone exponential by $1,400, the final high is going to be way higher than current levels."

A trend we'll gladly observe right here in The 5.

One possible catalyst: our friends in China. "Their [China's] national reserves are probably only just over 2% in gold at the moment," says Griffiths echoing a theme you may have read here (many times), "and they could easily move up to 10%… We're moving into a world where Chinese and Indian authorities are going to be more dominant than they were in the past, and in their culture, of course, gold is real money.

"On top of that, particularly China already has more than enough dollars and they're finding that a problem. [China doesn't] want to crack the dollar, but it doesn't want to go long of any more because of their trading activities."

Ordinary Chinese are taking their cue from their monetary mandarins. As we mentioned last week, Chinese gold imports in the run-up to Chinese New Year were double last year's pace.

"The growth in demand is being attributed, in part, to Chinese families giving each other gifts of gold, instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash," says U.S. Global Investors chief and Vancouver favorite Frank Holmes.

Silver is back within less than a dollar of its high set at the beginning of the year. At last check, the spot price was $30.43.

"I think that silver could easily get to $50 this year," says Eric Sprott, founder of Canada's Sprott Asset Management. "Silver is the poor man's gold. Gold has had a great run for the past 11 years. But I absolutely believe that silver will outperform gold this year. Currently, there are more investment dollars going into silver than into gold."

Sprott says investment demand is starting to overwhelm existing silver supplies. As with gold, China is a huge factor: "China's net imports of silver were 112 million ounces last year. In 2005, they were net exporters of 100 million ounces," he says.

"That's a 200 million ounce shift in an 800 million ounce annual market that seldom ever grows because production hardly ever goes up. So where's it all going to come from? We don't know."

Sprott sees the gold-to-silver ratio reverting from its present 45:1 (45 ounces of silver equal 1 ounce of gold) to as little as 16:1. "On that basis, if gold goes to $1,600, then that would value silver at $100."

We'll be receiving Mr. Sprott as a speaker in Vancouver this year following the announcement that he and our friend Rick Rule have merged their respective businesses. These two resource powerhouses alone make attending the Agora Financial Investment Symposium worth the journey. Vancouver in July is just icing on the delicious cake.

Make your plans to join us today. Early, early bird discounts still apply. Contact Barb Perriello at (800) 926-6575 and reserve your seat. (Last year, we sold out in record time!)

Meanwhile, we'll stick to our own silver forecast: We expect to see silver outperform gold 3-to-1 over the next 24 months. For ideas on how to play it, look here.

[Ed. Note: Our friends at First Federal have seen an overwhelming response to their offer of the U.S. Mint's newest issue -- a massive 5-ounce silver coin. As an Agora Financial reader, you get dibs on these coins before anyone else -- but only for three more days. As always, we have an advertising relationship with First Federal and we may be compensated if you buy. Please be sure you examine these 5-ounce coins thoroughly before you buy.]

Major U.S. stock indexes are as flat as a Victoria's Secret model this morning after another day up yesterday.

The London Stock Exchange wants to buy out the Toronto Stock Exchange. The combo would form the world's biggest exchange, at least as measured by the number of companies traded.

Under the deal, LSE shareholders would own 55% of the combined company, TSX shareholders 45%.

The deal may run into trouble with Canadian regulators, though. They're still edgy after blocking the Australian mining giant BHP's bid for Canada's PotashCorp.

Home prices have registered a fifth straight month of year-over-year declines, according to CoreLogic. The firm's home price index for December was down 5.5% from December 2009.

In fact, the index is now barely above the low it set in March 2009 -- down 31% from the peak.

Because the government of Romania has solved all its other problems, it now proposes to… regulate the country's witches.

Under a bill that's already passed one of the two houses of parliament, witches whose predictions fail to come true will be subject to fines or even prison terms.

"I will fight until my last breath for this not to be passed," says Queen Witch Bratara Buzea. When we last checked in with Buzea a month ago, she had cast a spell of cat excrement and a dead dog to curse the politicians who subjected the occupation of witchcraft to the country's income tax. Didn't seem to work.


Queen Witch Bratara Buzea: "They can't condemn witches,
they should condemn the cards."
Ah, doesn't she know a good craftsman never blames her tools?

Romania's GDP has contracted for the past two years. Hmnn, wonder why?

"Business may hate government regulation," a reader writes, "but the fact is that without government, businesses have a very poor track record of regulating themselves, and consumers have never been organized well enough as a group to fight corporate abuses.

"Many of the corporations that left the U.S. for countries like Mexico or China, due to our 'restrictive' regulatory environment, became polluters in their new homes. We know this just from reading the news about the pollution problems these nations have that accompany their economic development. Royalist brats just won't be bothered with the costs or philosophy of social responsibility until people as represented by government hold their feet to the fire, and in that sense, this shows us how capitalism doesn't work.

"Frankly, I've never liked how private interests can own public resources and ship
out the resources and money earned without so much as a thank-you to the
communities who helped make them. Russians showed their displeasure of this
practice when they arrested Yukos. A better model would be collectively owned
resources, leased or licensed to private interests. That way locals and citizens
could benefit, not just 'more equal' piggies."

The 5: Yeah, because the people who would run a system of "collectively owned resources" would never, ever try to enrich themselves and act like "'more equal' piggies." And they would never, ever favor their friends and punish their enemies when leasing or licensing those resources, would they?

"The problem with regulation is that the regulators never know when to stop," offers another reader. "As a businessman representing a large company, I assisted our customers in meeting regulations written pursuant to the Clean Water Act. Hindsight makes it very clear that regulation was necessary to protect the waters of the United States and that the States could not do it effectively since water always flows downhill from one state to and through another.

"But the brand-new regulators could not be fired once initial regulations were written. What could be done with these government workers? They immediately looked for other aspects of water quality to regulate and added more and more regulation, and have done so for over 50 years. Regulations take on a life of their own and never seem to be too much. Plus, there are special interest groups that always want more regulation for more and more reasons.

"Government is about self-preservation. It is like a starfish, which you cut into five pieces and each one becomes a new starfish. You can't kill it or even reduce it. To quote the Mogambo Guru, 'We're Freaking Doomed!'"

"I spent years in the oil and gas industry," writes a third, "then years in the airline industry. Now I work in the public sector. Yes, the organization I work for is a waste of taxpayer money.

"The biggest problem in public sector is how these organizations have turned into large-scale workfare programs that reward large percentages of people who underwork yet insist on 'industry' wages. Wages are all adjusted up to the high end of 'industry standard' wages in the name of fairness while the quality of employees we hire is considerably less than standard.

"There are departments within my organization in which half the employees who earn an average of $60,000 per year are not worth minimum wage. That is no exaggeration. This puts undue pressure on the minority of employees who are competent and often very overworked. They eventually leave and their departure is used as an excuse to raise the wages of all the remaining parasites.

"It's a terrible cycle and it has to end."

The 5: Following the president's now infamous address to the Chamber of Commerce on Monday -- in which he beseeched business leaders to "get in the game" while sidestepping the giant elephant of government "reform" and regulation in the room -- our friend and CEO of Odyssey Marine responded in kind.

Unfortunately, we've used all of our 5 Min. today... so keep an eye out for Mr. Stemm's entire response tomorrow.

Regards,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

P.S. The Zagros oil basin of southwestern Turkey has a distinct advantage in the world market today: Much of its product would be shipped out via the Mediterranean Sea, far from Somali pirates.

It's one more argument in favor of Chris Mayer's newest "special situation." One of this company's major owners turned $500 into $1 billion (that's not a typo) with his last oil venture. To learn how promising this one is, please review Chris' latest presentation.


Cisco Afterhours Carnage

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:51 AM PST


Update: $19.90 now

One of these years Cisco will actually trade up after earnings. We promise. Just not yet... not yet. In the meantime, enjoy the latest carnage. But never forget: the gross margin collapse, the plunge in the consumer business, and that whole "transition" language - that's all very much company-specific. There is no way, repeat no way, that Cisco weakness can ever be systemic. And forget that Cisco was the first company to go pop during most previous bubbles. That also does not fit the script.


Grandich Client Crocodile Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:51 AM PST

The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! February 09, 2011 01:07 PM The Croc’s CEO was interviewed by Jay Taylor yesterday. [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...


Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:31 AM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... February 09, 2011 12:49 PM Dear CIGAs, Click chart to enlarge today's hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini [B][I][/I][/B]...


Market Commentary From Guild Investment

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:31 AM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... February 09, 2011 12:38 PM Inflation is taxation without legislation -Milton Friedman Inflation: Say Goodbye to Buying Power Economy watchers see its growing presence in official government statistics. Yet you won't hear government officials admitting it. It's too politically unpleasant — and threatening — to do so. Official spin and fantasy aside, the reality is that inflation is here and here to stay for quite a while. That means the buying power of the dollar is declining and being experienced on a daily basis. We have noticed for decades the decline in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, perhaps as a byproduct of spending significant time travelling outside the U.S.  We've seen the dollar buying less and less and less.  Looking ahead, we unfortunately see the rate of decline gathering steam, and that's not just our opinion.  It's shared by many sharp economic minds, among them, Jim Sinclair who has been discussi...


Blowing Bubbles

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:30 AM PST

For now, the earnings narrative dominates the market. All the big-picture items seem not to matter. Unemployment? Who cares? Debt and deficits at every level of government? Whatever. Companies are turning in good profits and the market is uncorking the champagne.

There are reasons to be careful, which I'll get to.

First, on the face of it, we've had a great run. The S&P 500's fourth-quarter earnings, at the halfway mark, were 17% ahead of last year's. Importantly, sales were up 9%. So this is no longer a story of cost cutting. Most everyone is doing well, save utilities and health care companies, which have reported declines in profits as a group. Mining and energy companies are doing especially well, with profit growth north of 40%.

The media don't get how this earnings picture squares with stubbornly high unemployment. I talked to one reporter recently about this very thing. One simple reason for this disconnect is that some of the best sources of profits for many of these firms has been from overseas operations. Many US firms are still cutting jobs, like Boeing and Lowe's. Profits from emerging markets, meanwhile, grow apace.

There are bright spots in the US, too, of course. US manufacturing is getting a boost. Caterpillar will spend $3 billion this year in capital expenditures to add capacity, more than half in the US. And Emerson said it expects US nonresidential investment to grow 8-9%. Eaton, another US manufacturer, actually said it expects its US sales to grow faster than its overseas operations.

US new vehicle sales were up 17% in January. We're at a run rate of 12.6 million vehicles, much better than the 10.8 million run rate of a year ago, but well off the 16 million automakers enjoyed pre-crisis.

So it's a bit of a muddled cherry. As always, you have to pick your spots, which is what we're all about.

A fly in this whole whiskey sour is inflation.

It's definitely here and it's having an impact. Rising costs are squeezing some manufacturers. Whirlpool, for example, said it would boost prices 8-10% to cover rising raw material costs. This sort of thing is rippling across all sectors. Prices are going up everywhere.

Nalco Holding (NYSE:NLC), a world leader in water purification, recently reported disappointing earnings, largely due to rising raw material costs. The stock sold off on the news.

But looking out longer term, the world's need for clean water only grows more acute. Despite the short-term effects of rising raw material costs, Nalco ought to be able to grow core profits at double-digit percentages for years to come. It is a very strong company that generates a tremendous amount of free cash flow – $185 million last year, to be exact.

So if companies as robust as Nalco are feeling the effects of rising prices, run-of-the-mill companies across the country must also be feeling the effects.

In fact, I was fascinated recently by a story in The Wall Street Journal titled, "Fearing Inflation, Firms Stocking Up." The story talks about how companies are stockpiling rubber tires, cotton clothing and other goods to insulate themselves from inflation.

Anecdotally, McCormick stockpiled some ingredients for its spices, Anton Sport bought more fabric than it needed, and Monro Muffler bought extra tires and oil.

These purchases are still a small part of overall purchases, but it's a new trend and something we haven't seen in years. For most of the last handful of years, companies tried to shed inventory, not carry it.

But what these actions essentially say is that these firms would rather hold real things than cash.

I think we'll see more of the same. While inflation is here and everyone seems to see it, the central bankers of the US and Europe seem unconcerned. Of course, they have every incentive to continue to let the money presses run.

According to economists Joshua Aizenman and Nancy Marion, inflation did half the work of cutting US government debt from 122% of the economy to 25% from 1945-1973. So with the US government saddled with debts it can never repay, the way out is to debase the currency. Let those printing presses hum and keep interest rates low.

Of course, such money printing also puts in motion great monetary accidents. As the old Austrian economists warned, the new money stimulates investing, but it creates an illusion. It's like giving off signals that there is plenty of gas in the tank when, in fact, it's nearly empty.

These easy-money policies helped create the great housing bubble. And the easy-money policies today will create a big bubble somewhere else, which will turn into tomorrow's bust.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

Blowing Bubbles originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:22 AM PST


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Gold May Outshine Silver in the Medium Term

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:19 AM PST

Przemyslaw Radomski submits:

Political as well as economical developments around the globe, especially in the Middle East, have affected the commodity markets during the previous week. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with the social illness, a strong demand has supported the precious metals. In talking about the reasons, the Chinese New Year celebrations top the discussions. The growth in demand is being attributed in part to Chinese families giving each other gifts of gold instead of traditional red envelopes filled with cash. Fears of inflation have also driven demand for gold.

China’s gold imports are estimated to have more than doubled from a year ago in the run-up to Chinese New Year. This means that China is on track to overtake India as the world’s largest consumer of the yellow metal. China consumes about 527 tons of gold a year, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body representing gold miners. Traders say China will overtake India as the largest consumer of gold this year. The Indian festival of Diwali was once the key driver of seasonal demand patterns because of the large number of weddings taking place during the holidays. But Now the Chinese New Year is starting to have a bigger impact.

Ongoing demand surge from China could support the precious metals market significantly in the short-term. Precious metals traders in London and Hong Kong said this week in a Financial Times article that they were stunned by the strength of Chinese buying in the past month. “The demand is unbelievable.


Complete Story »


Gold: A Bad Investment and Getting Worse, Part II

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 08:01 AM PST

Charles Lewis Sizemore submits:

<< Return to Part 1

“Find the trend whose premise is false and bet against it.”
-- Attributed to George Soros

I couldn’t help but remember Mr. Soros’s words when I read Thomas Kaplan’s recent opinion piece in the Financial Times. Kaplan, Chairman of Tigris Financial Group, writes that gold, even after its 10-year bull market, still only represents 0.6% of total global financial assets. This is double the all-time low of 0.3% hit in 2001 — when gold was just beginning its ascent — but far below the 3% it was in 1980 or the 4.8% that it was in 1968. Kaplan notes that if gold rose to just 1.2% of global investments — less than half the 1980 level — this would equate to 26,000 tons, or ten years worth of current production.

The implication, of course, was that the gold bull is only getting started. As more investors diversify parts of their portfolios into the yellow metal, the increase in demand will cause the price to soar ever higher.

There are so many flaws in this thinking it’s hard to know where to start, but let’s give it a shot.

We could start by noting that the global economy has grown by leaps and bounds since 1980 and that assets that reflect this surge of wealth creation — such as the stocks and bonds of the companies that have benefitted from the growth — should be a larger piece of the global asset pie relative to gold.

Complete Story »


Why Contrary To The Chairman's Lies, A Record Steep Yield Curve May Be The Most Bearish Indicator Available

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:38 AM PST


The most important characteristic of current capital markets, aside of course from now completely irrelevant stocks, which there is no point in even discussing any more as the Russell 2000 has become nothing more than a policy tool for Bernanke in pitching idiot Congressmen how "successful" his failed monetary policy has been when all it indicates is how good he is at manipulating stock prices, is the record steepness of the yield curve, as we have been pointing out month after month (oddly the topic never gets boring as it hits a new record wide with each passing month). And while to Ben the steepness is simply more good news to regale his questioners, who have no idea what the difference between a bond price and yield is, with, it is just as easily the most bearish indicator available. Nick Colas explains why "the bears also have more fodder from the steep yield curve than an Alaskan salmon run: the long end of the curve could be blowing out over inflation fears, persistent government debt issuance, or even a future downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt." But don't worry- the Chaircreature will never acknowledge that there is a yang to every ying. Especially not when the ying has to be so well priced, that Bernanke's midichlorian count has to be off the charts to get his liquidity extraction timing perfectly and avoid either a hyperdeflationary or hyperinflationary collapse.

From BNY Convergex: Smoke from a Distant Fire, or what the 2s10s really indicates

Summary: The U.S. Treasury yield curve is setting records for its “steepness” – the difference between short duration yields and those that stretch out for 10 to 30 years. The current yield spread between 2-year and 10-year notes is now 290 basis points. We’re clearly in record-setting territory, but this is one of those data points that seems to fully support both full-on bullish and bearish viewpoints. History is on the side of optimism: the two previous periods of Matterhorn-like yield curves were in the early 1990s and 2000s and served as precursors to an improving U.S. economy and large gains for stocks. Yet the bears also have more fodder from the steep yield curve than an Alaskan salmon run: the long end of the curve could be blowing out over inflation fears, persistent government debt issuance, or even a future downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt. This argument will be settled by how much loan growth we see in the banking system, for that is the way steep yield curves traditionally catalyze economic growth.

People only see what they are prepared to see.” That quote comes from Ralph Waldo Emerson, the American 19th century writer and philosopher. While he meant it largely in a spiritual sense – his first vocation was in ministry – there is much truth to it when it comes to the world of investing. You only have to look as far as the tech and housing bubbles or the Financial Crisis to see that human judgment is strongly colored by what we want to see. What we are “Prepared to see.”

Nowhere is that sentiment more accurate than in the current state of the U.S. Treasury bond market. Let’s start with the facts of the case:

  • Most investors consider this to be one of the most efficiently priced markets in the world. There’s plenty of supply, first of all, with $9.5 trillion in public hands. And then there’s a healthy leverage component – even a retail Fidelity margin account will allow you to buy more than 4x your cash balance. An accommodating prime broker will give you far more leverage without much of a fuss. Even before you layer on a robust futures market, the monthly trading in U.S. government bonds totals some $500 billion every month.
  • The short end of the Treasury curve, less than 2 years or so maturity, is largely controlled by interest rate policy driven by the Federal Reserve. They set short-term rates with their decisions on the Federal Funds rate, the overnight interest rate used by banks to lend money to other financial institutions.
  • The yields at the long end of the curve, essentially 5 – 30 years, are determined primarily by expectations for future inflation. U.S. Treasuries have long been considered “risk free” so they aren’t supposed to discount any risk of default. More on that in a few minutes, though.

The steepness of the Treasury curve, defined here as the difference between 2 year and 10 year Treasury yields, is therefore an ongoing tug of war. On one side you have 11 people – the current size of the Federal Open Market Committee. On the other side is the open and highly liquid marketplace for government bonds. This struggle between closed-door policy and marketplace pricing is now at an important juncture. Consider the following (a 35 year chart of the 2-10 year spread follows immediately after the text):

  • The difference between 10s and 2s swings from occasionally negative to a more normal state of 50 to 150 basis points positive (10 year rates higher those for 2 years). “Inverted curves” – where short-term rates exceed the yield on long dated bonds – occurred in the early and late 1980s, and again in the early 2000s. Exceptionally “steep curves,” when the difference between short and long end exceeds 250 basis points, are just about as rare, occurring in the early 1990s and again in the early 2000s.
  • And of course, now. One key difference, however, between the today and the historical record is the current “stickiness” of a steep curve. Prior periods of 250 basis point differentials have been relatively fleeting affairs. The current spreads have been with us off and on – but mostly on – since 2009. That’s a result of the FOMC’s decision to leave short-term rates near zero for their “extended period” of time.
  • The yield curve is usually an excellent indicator of future stock market returns. Those who say, “You can’t time the market” must not have bond prices on their quote screen. Since the 1990s if you simply bought when the yield curve was 250 basis points steep and sold when it “inverted” you would have be in stocks when the market rallied and safely out of equities when they got choppy. In for 1992 – early 2000 (one down year, and positive returns from 4-31%), and for 2003 – early 2007 (all up years with returns from 3-26%). Out for 1989 – 1991, missing all the volatility of the first Gulf War, and from 2007 – 2009. You know what happened then.

The current spread, at 290 basis points, is extremely unusual and demands separate analysis. Three points on the state of play today:

  • There is solid economic reasoning for the “Yield Curve Indicator” as it relates to stock performance. This is not one of those market indicators, like hemlines or Super Bowl winning teams, which draws its strength from correlation rather than causation. Steep yield curves mean that the banking system has a powerful reason to lend more. Short-term money, in the form of what banks have to pay to retain deposits, is cheap. The return they get for lending that money over the longer term is much better, since the amount they can charge for loans like car notes or mortgages is higher. This encourages lending and loosens bankers’ cautious purse strings and spurs incremental demand. Economic growth ensues as easier credit spurs expansion. The increasing spread between the cost of money and the return from lending also helps bank profitability and allows them to rebuild capital bases damaged by recession.
  • The positive feedback loop created by a steep yield curve sounds pretty compelling, so what’s the bearish case? There are several  arguments, and they all essentially rest on the notion that “This time is different.”

First is the possibility that long-dated Treasuries are discounting inflation more than economic recovery. The Federal Reserve won a battle with inflation in the early 1980s, causing a long-term bull market in 10-30 year bonds. Now the Fed is actually trying to spark inflation - a very different dynamic. A strong dose of inflation, beyond the Fed’s ability to control it, would damage economic growth and give banks very little incentive to lend more, or produce little demand for capital from business managers. This would, of course, also drag down stock prices.

Second is the notion that the U.S. government is a less credit-worthy borrower than in past cycles.
The country’s budget deficit runs +$1 trillion a year and total debt-to-GDP is essentially 1:1. The past two years have seen the U.S. issue a dollar of new debt for every dollar it collects in taxes. Substantial cutbacks in Federal spending seem unlikely in the run-up to a Presidential election in 2012 and in the absence of a Greece/Ireland-style capital markets crisis. In other words, long dated U.S. government paper may well need to offer greater yields to compensate investors for what effectively a lower quality product. A loss of the highest ratings on U.S. sovereign debt would raise the cost of borrowing, dampening economic growth and stock prices.

If you focus on the short end of the yield curve, another reason why a steep yield curve may not be especially predictive pops out from the data. The Fed’s desire to push savers to become investors and lift stock prices is materially different from the central bank’s traditional approach to prior recessions. That may mean that a steep yield curve is more the result of a policy shift that requires lower short rates for longer than is customary.

If a steep yield curve is meant to spark loan growth, it has yet to create this outcome. According to the Fed’s own data (see here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/) growth in loans and leases on bank balance sheets are still stuck in neutral. Bank credit of all types was down 5.6% in December 2010 from the prior year. For the month of January 2011 bank credit is essentially unchanged to December. Some loans considered to be leading indicators are up, however. Commercial and industrial loans, for example, were up 7.6% in December although January has not seen any further advance.

“When you hear hoof beats, think horses, not unicorns.”
That old adage may well apply to the record steep yield curve. But the hoof beats at this point are distant. Like so many aspects of the current recovery, it may take more time than usual to see the results of a steep yield curve on lending and growth.

 


&#8216;Welfare Bum' JP Morgan: We Need Gold!

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:26 AM PST


G7 Banana Republics ON the Road to ZIMBABWE!

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:23 AM PST

Tedbits: The Economic and Financial NO SPIN Zone By Theodore (Ty) Andros The global financial cataclysm is mushrooming with every stroke of the keyboard at a central bank, with the issuance of new debt to cover old debt, and with the illusion of creating money out of thin air. It is all debt, nothing else, with no final settlement…. EVER. You exchange the money you work for and save and buy a government bond; they print the money to pay you back and PRETEND you have been paid. The situation is just as Von Mises outlined: "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved" -Ludwig Von Mises The LEADERS of the developed world have chosen the latter route. This is a currency and financial-system extinction event, make no mi...


What to Deduce from Rising Bond Yields

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 07:21 AM PST

If the 30-year bond yield were a growth stock, you'd definitely want it in your portfolio. In fact, it would be one of the best performing stocks of the last two years.

Already this year, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond has jumped 10% – or about double the gain of the S&P 500 Index. Over the last two years, the 30-year yield has soared a whopping 78%, versus the S&P's 53% advance.

But bond yields are not a growth stock. They are a reflection of both credit demand and inflation expectations. For example, when credit demand and inflation expectations are both low, bond yields typically fall…as they did in late 2008. But when credit demand and inflation expectations are on the rise, bond yields typically rise as well.

What, therefore, should we deduce from the relatively steep ascent of bond yields over the past few months? Is credit demand climbing? Not really.

According to data from the Federal Reserve, consumer credit outstanding is still declining sharply. Economist David Rosenberg reports that total revolving credit outstanding has been dropping steadily – from $989 billion at the end of 2008 to $894 billion at the end of 2009 to $826 billion at the end of last year.

So if bond yields are climbing in the context of contracting credit demand, rising inflation expectations must be to blame…and that's probably not a good thing for the stock market.

Historically, rising bond yields compete with the stock market for investment dollars. As interest rates rise, the competition becomes more acute, causing share prices to languish or fall.

For now, however, inflation-phobia is not a pervasive sentiment. Few investors seem to care that food prices are soaring, that T-bond yields are climbing across the entire yield curve or that almost every central bank in Asia has started raising interest rates to combat inflation.

The stock market is rising because the stock market is rising. That's all we know and, apparently, all we need to know. The S&P 500 Index has nearly doubled since the dark days of March 2009. It's been a great run. The Wall Street folks tell us that this great big rally is reflecting "improving economic data and higher-than-estimated earnings." And probably that's true…or partly true.

The rest of the truth might be that the S&P 500 is reflecting Ben Bernanke's massive money-printing exercise. Eventually, this exercise will produce inflation, or at least it should. But for the moment, inflation is showing up most prominently in the stock market.

Enjoy it while it lasts. When inflation starts showing up in the bond market and in the rest of the real world, share prices tend to struggle.

Eric Fry
for The Daily Reckoning

What to Deduce from Rising Bond Yields originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning has published articles on the impact of quantitative easing, bakken oil, and hyperinflation.


Mythology &amp; Official Nonsense

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:57 AM PST

by Jim Willie CB February 10, 2011 home: Golden Jackass website subscribe: Hat Trick Letter Jim Willie CB, editor of the "HAT TRICK LETTER" Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy. With the advent, then the continuation of the Quantitative Easing exercise in hyper-inflation and capital destruction, the US Federal Reserv...


Technical Analysis DOES Work For Gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:44 AM PST

[U]www.preciousmetalstockreview.com February 9, 2011 [/U] In response to two articles recently by much greater and high profile minds than mine I thought I’d put a little pice out showing how technical analysis does work in the Gold market. It’s been my philosophy to KISS. Keep-It-Simple-Stupid. I’m talking to myself above, not you nor any of my many loyal and wonderful readers and even more wonderful subscribers who get my daily thoughts on markets and Gold, Silver or anything else I’m thinking that morning as well as real-time trades. Let me begin by saying I’m far from perfect and at times forget my KISS mantra. In fact we have been underwater recently in our swing trading portfolio and have just this week righted the weightings and have already made back the losses and look set to continue higher, taking profits along the way. I know and readily admit that errors are part of investing. It’s the ability o...


Silver to outperform gold in 2011 - Eric Sprott

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:24 AM PST

"Silver class-action suits against Morgan, HSBC consolidated in New York. UAE sees dramatic rise in gold sales. China Moves to Strengthen Grip Over Supply of Rare-Earth Metals, and much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver It was a pretty quiet day in Far East trading in the gold market on Tuesday. There was a bit of a pop shortly before London opened, but that got sold off the moment that the London a.m. gold fix was in at 10:30 a.m. GMT in London...5:30 a.m. Eastern time. From there, the gold price slid right into the New York open at 8:20 a.m...when a buyer of some size showed up and popped the price up about ten bucks in very short order. From that point, the gold price ground slowly higher to its 1:00 pm. Eastern time on-the-button high of $1,369.30 spot. Then gold price then got sold off a few dollars going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern time. Reader Scott Pluschau was kind enough to send the 10-minute gold chart once ag...


Gold Discovery Contenders: ICN Resources Gearing Up to Drill Bonanza

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:18 AM PST

By James West MidasLetter.com February 9, 2011 ICN Resources Ltd., (TSX.V:ICN), the latest mining project by rock star geologist and serial mine finder Carl Herring, is gearing up to drill the Goldfield Bonanza project this month in the historic Goldfield Mining District in Nevada. There is heightened industry attention surrounding this upcoming drill program for several compelling reasons, foremost among which is the very high grade results which assayed as high as 4 ounces per tonne of gold. First off, the Goldfield District, discovered in 1903, has a history of production of over 4 million ounces of gold from ores grading as high as an ounce of gold per tonne and better, with the average historic (non-43-101 compliant) production grade coming in at a remarkable 17 grams per tonne. Records also indicate production of 1.5 million ounces of silver. Since 2001, the project has seen 35,000 feet of reverse circulation drilling both from surface and from past producing dr...


Brussels think tank maps exit from euro debt crisis

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:11 AM PST

By Jan Strupczewski
Feb 9 (Reuters) — The euro zone must clean up its banking system, reduce Greek debt and boost economic growth in peripheral countries to put an end to the sovereign debt crisis, an influential Brussels think tank, Bruegel, said in a report.

… The paper said Greece was insolvent and would not be able to service its debts even if the interest rate on its emergency bilateral loans from the euro zone was slashed to 3.5 percent from the current 5.0-5.2 percent.

Lengthening the maturity of the loans tenfold to 30 years and allowing the euro zone's bailout fund to buy Greek bonds that are currently held by the European Central Bank would also not solve the problem, the think tank said.

"Our calculations indicate that even if they were all applied together these measures would still be insufficient to return the country to solvency…"

"Our conclusion therefore is that Greece has become insolvent and that further lending without a significant enough debt reduction is not a viable strategy," Bruegel said, adding this should happen sooner rather than later.

The report said that to return to a sustainable path and reach a 60 percent debt-to-GDP ratio in 20 years, Greece would need, in addition to the three measures above, a 30 percent haircut to the marketable public debt.

[source]

RS View: In stark contrast, by it's very nature, gold never needs a haircut…


Warren Bevan: Technical analysis does work for gold

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:09 AM PST

2p ET Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Disputing Alasdair Macleod (http://www.gata.org/node/9575) and J.S. Kim (http://www.gata.org/node/9578), Precious Metal Stock Review editor Warren Bevan argues today that technical analysis does work to a large extent even in the manipulated gold market. Bevan's commentary is headlined "Technical Analysis Does Work for Gold" and it can be found in today's edition of his newsletter here:

http://www.preciousmetalstockreview.com/downloads/February%209,%202011%2...

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.



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Prophecy Resource Spins Off Platinum/Palladium Venture:
World-Class PGM Deposit in Yukon

Company Press Release, January 18, 2011

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY)and Pacific Coast Nickel Corp. announce that they have agreed that PCNC will acquire Prophecy's Nickel PGM projects by issuing common shares to Prophecy.

PCNC will acquire the Wellgreen PGM Ni-Cu and Lynn Lake nickel projects in the Yukon Territory and Manitoba respectively by issuing up to 550 million common shares of PCNC to Prophecy. PCNC has 55.7 million shares outstanding.

Following the transaction:

-- Prophecy will own approximately 90 percent of PCNC.

-- PCNC will consolidate its share capital on a 10 old for one new basis.

-- Prophecy will change its name to Prophecy Coal Corp. and PCNC will be renamed Prophecy Platinum Corp.

-- Prophecy intends to distribute half of its PCNC shares to shareholders pro-rata in accordance with their holdings.

Based on the closing price of the common shares of PCNC on January 17, $0.195 per share, the gross value of the transaction is $107,250,000.

For the complete announcement, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2011_jan18.php



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Help keep GATA going

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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit, Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

-- Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

-- Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

-- Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface.

"The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf



LGMR: Gold/Silver Ratio Falls Through "Major Support" as Both Metals Rise

Posted: 09 Feb 2011 06:00 AM PST

London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault Weds 9 Feb., 08:50 EST Gold/Silver Ratio Falls Through "Major Support" as Both Metals Rise, Bond Markets Fear Inflation THE PRICE OF GOLD rose back towards yesterday's 3-week peaks in London on Wednesday, pushing higher against all major currencies as world stock markets slipped. Crude oil rallied and US government bonds also ticked higher, while wheat prices hit near 3-year highs following news of a winter drought in China, the world's top producer. Silver prices rose again, hitting new 5-week highs above $30.50 per ounce – less than 2.5% below Jan.'s 30-year top. "Gold appears to be pulled higher on stronger silver prices," says Russell Browne in his latest technical analysis for Scotia Mocatta clients. Silver "exploded higher" on Tuesday, he says Browne, forcing the Gold/Silver Ratio "below major support at 46.00." Falling as the silver price rises faster than gold, the ratio of gold prices to silver "sees next su...


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