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• A Good Future Or A Bad Future: Which Will It Be?
• Richard Duncan: A Catastrophic Global Economic Breakdown May Be Unavoidable!
• Silver Is About As Close As You Can Get To A Sure Bet! Here's Why
• Goldrunner: Gold and the PM Stocks Will Make 2011 A Happy New Year For All!
• Inflation Scorecard: Gold Gives Up Gains
• Mexico's Peso Bucks the Tumbling Currency Trend
• Be Prepared to Buy Into Potential Dollar Decline
• Why sheeple don't buy gold...
• Wild gyrations in PMs & USD...who's buying today?
• Today Could be Payday – Millrock Resources Noted by S&P
• This could be the best buying opportunity in gold all year
• A "perfect storm" is setting up in these essential commodities
• Introducing the world's next reserve currency
• Is Another Giant Precious Metals Bear Raid Coming This Morning?
• Gold pole-axed, but bugs (and others) calm
• US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13
• Gold Falls vs. Dollar, Hong Kong Premiums Rise on "Very Good" Asian Buying
• New Year’s Resolutions and Predictions
• US Economic Decline a Believable Scenario
• Sharps Pixley Returns to the Gold Game
• Metals Grind Lower as Economy Strengthens
• Take This Job & Keep It
• The New Gold Rush
• LBMA Analysts Tally 2010 Forecast Results
• Massive Raid failed again...silver is the attempted "mark"
• Precious Metals and Stocks converging to top together in January
• Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly

A Good Future Or A Bad Future: Which Will It Be? Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST The future will be determined by how global supply and global demand are brought back into balance. If, [on one hand,] the means are found to expand aggregate demand sufficiently and sustainably, then the global excess supply will be absorbed and the global economy will begin to grow again. If, on the other hand, equilibrium is restored by a collapse in supply – back to a point at which there is real demand, a point determined by the current income and purchasing power of the individuals who comprise the world's population – then globalization will collapse and the world economy will plunge into depression. Should that occur, millions of people around the world could starve before the decade is out. The geopolitical repercussions of such a scenario would be beyond dire. Words: 1313

Richard Duncan: A Catastrophic Global Economic Breakdown May Be Unavoidable! Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST The global economy is in crisis... it is unstable and unsustainable... and a catastrophic economic breakdown may be unavoidable. Government intervention on a multi-trillion dollar scale is the only thing preventing a worldwide collapse into a new great depression. [Let me explain.] Words: 1158

Silver Is About As Close As You Can Get To A Sure Bet! Here's Why Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST I am very, very bullish on silver; the metal which is overlooked by most but will make the few who own it extremely rich. While gold will have a spectacular performance over the course of this bull market, it is silver that will be the MVP. Silver is about as close as you can get to a sure bet. Here are 7 reasons why silver will make you rich. Words: 2074

Goldrunner: Gold and the PM Stocks Will Make 2011 A Happy New Year For All! Posted: 07 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST It is fascinating to be living during the greatest Precious Metals (PM) Bull Market in history – and to be entering its Seasonal Strength - and I look forward to keeping you informed on a regular basis throughout 2011 as it unfolds. Words: 1119

Inflation Scorecard: Gold Gives Up Gains Posted: 07 Jan 2011 04:49 AM PST Hard Assets Investor submits: By Brad Zigler This week, bullion gave up the gains scored the previous week against sterling and the euro. Reserve currencies, in fact, made a clean sweep against gold. Sterling’s value in gold appreciated 2.9 percent while the euro improved by 2.7 percent. Both the yen and the Swiss franc gained 1.6 percent vs. bullion. Complete Story »

Mexico's Peso Bucks the Tumbling Currency Trend Posted: 07 Jan 2011 03:46 AM PST MyPlanIQ submits: MyPlanIQ tracks trends in multiple categories using ETFs. After a couple of positive weeks, currencies tumbled. Only the Mexican Peso bucks the trend and on that basis pops into the top three. The bottom of the table remains the same, although the Real should break out of there before too long. Assets Class Symbols 01/05 Trend Score 12/29 Trend Score Direction Australia Dollar FXA 6.0% 10.31% v Mexican Peso FXM 3.47% 2.59% ^ Swedish Krona FXS 3.42% 4.25% v Japanese Yen FXY 2.82% 5.73% v Swiss Franc FXF 2.81% 6.42% v Canadian Dollar FXC 2.37% 3.57% v G10 Carry Trade DBV 1.59% 2.34% v Chinese Yuan CYB 0.4% 0.5% v US Dollar Bearish UDN -0.63% 1.34% v British Pound FXB -1.15% -0.45% v Euro FXE -2.37% -0.26% v Brazilian Real BZF -4.52% -3.79% v Complete Story »

Be Prepared to Buy Into Potential Dollar Decline Posted: 07 Jan 2011 03:36 AM PST Marc Chandler submits: There has been an obvious build-up of expectations about the U.S. jobs report today. The dramatic jump in the ADP estimate sparked a large upward revision in expectations, even though the shortcomings of its estimate and its track record are well known. In part, the optimism also reflects the recent string of data that has convinced even many of the cynics that the U.S. economy has accelerated. Given the price action and the pendulum of market expectations, the risk today is for disappointment. The disappointment could lie in the difficulty to live up to some of the inflated expectations, which included talk of a 500,000 rise. With the U.S. economy gaining traction, many observers have simply ignored the fact that the employment component of both the manufacturing and service sector ISM reports weakened. The risk is of a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" type of trading today. Yet in the larger picture, to be clear, investors ought to see that potential pullback in the dollar as a new buying opportunity and/or opportunity to adjust exposures. The combination of growth differentials, mediated through interest rate differentials and relative returns, and Europe's debt woes will help fuel further dollar appreciation. By some market-based measures, the European crisis is worse than it was in the May 2010. The immediate focus in Europe is three-fold. First, there are some reports suggesting that a Spanish caja may need to borrow from the government's aid fund ((FROB)). Private estimates suggest Spanish banks have another €80 bln of bad debt to recognize. On top of the federal and regional government borrowing, and bank borrowing, the FROB is expected to issue around €5 bln of bonds soon. Second is the sovereign supply next week from Portugal and Italy. The market does not seem to have much appetite for peripheral issuance. Portugal's 10-year bond yield has risen 54 basis points this week. Italian 10-year yields, on the other hand, have slipped 2 bp. The 7 bp that the Spanish 10-year bond has risen this week have been registered today. Third, there is a cloud of uncertainty over the status of creditors in Europe. German chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to back down from her ill-fated attempt last year to get the private sector to participate in bail-outs (i.e., haircuts) to a compromise position of "only after 2013." But the proverbial cat is out of the bag. The moral hazard whereby creditors are guaranteed by taxpayers' money is coming to an end. Yesterday the EU proposed that bank regulators be granted powers to write down debt in future crisis. There had been some reports (that we cited earlier this week) that Greece was lobbying banks to extend maturities on Greek obligations in line with the extension that is likely from the IMF and EU. Subsequently the reports have been denied, but many (if not most) observers look for Greek debt to be restructured at some point. Some investors may be surprised how little the market has really paid attention to press reports playing up Chinese purchases of peripheral European debt. Previously it was the vice-premier, who is tipped to be the next premier in 2012, and today it was the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China ((PBOC)) who appeared to have made supportive comments. So what? The market is bigger than China. China is (maybe) a price setter when it comes to iron ore, but not for such bonds as Portugal's or Spain's or Greece's. If Bank A wants to sell its peripheral bond and the PBOC buys it, what difference does it make to that peripheral country or other holders of that same paper? Altering the holders of the debt also is not the same thing as addressing the unsustainable debt dynamics. The amount of money being bandied about -- around €10 bln -- is chump change for the PBOC, which saw its reserves jump $200 bln in Q3 10 alone. The disconnect that it points to, though, is the comments in the recent past about the risks China faced in holding U.S. Treasuries. Are we to believe that those same officials really believe that peripheral European bonds are less risk? Disclosure: No positions Complete Story »

Why sheeple don't buy gold... Posted: 07 Jan 2011 02:43 AM PST Let me know if this is a 'dupe'......the search mode is a turtle today. :five:

Wild gyrations in PMs & USD...who's buying today? Posted: 07 Jan 2011 02:41 AM PST Gold & silver were down & USD indices were up prior to the newest "doo-doo in a dress" jobs report, then it all reversed...though without much conviction. Now the empire is striking back and PMs are under pressure while the dollar is recovering. So who's buying today, and with what kind of conviction? For myself I'm toying with grabbing either a $100 bag of 90% or a couple more tubes of SAEs.

Today Could be Payday – Millrock Resources Noted by S&P Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:57 PM PST As we write this morning at 06:45 CT gold has traded below our trading stop and silver has traded within a few dimes of our stated trading stops in overseas trade. Currently gold is $1,358.30, silver is $28.46. This is an unusual day because of the U.S. Employment Situation report due out at 08:30 ET. Because of that market "interference" and because we believe that conditions in Europe are actually strongly supportive of precious metals, we are calling an audible this morning to extend our "grace period" – the usual one-hour period we give stops before triggering them – to one hour following the non-farm payroll figures or 09:30 ET. This is not the first time we have done this on a payroll Friday and it likely won't be the last. Out of an abundance of caution, we will also put in "hard-stops" of $1,350 and $28.00 so as to put an absolute floor under our positions. The way the metals are trading this morning, those hard stops may be hit before this message can be posted on the web log.

This could be the best buying opportunity in gold all year Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:51 PM PST From Gold Scents: Let's face it... almost every trader or investor dreads a draw down. Traders do everything they can to avoid them, even if it means they drastically reduce their ultimate gains. It looks like the stop at $1,361 will be hit and gold will begin the trip down into an intermediate low. I get the feeling many traders assumed the stop was there only as a token gesture, but really had no chance of getting hit. I'm also afraid that despite my many warnings, too many traders took on way too much leverage. They never really planned on gold hitting the stop. When it does, they are going to take a much larger loss than they planned on. I suspect they didn't plan on a loss at all. They planned on huge profits. If you are one of these people, let this be a lesson. Always plan for the worst and hope for the best. Now is this the end of the world? Was it a huge mistake... or is it a golden opportunity? Without a doubt it is... Read full article... More on gold: How to know if you own enough gold The colossal force driving gold higher and higher Why a runaway move in gold could be just around the corner

A "perfect storm" is setting up in these essential commodities Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:38 PM PST From OilPrice.com: I bet I'm the only guy you know whose wedding was filmed by the KGB. In the '70s, my friend, the TASS correspondent Yuri, shot the entire assembled foreign press at the event at The Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan, undoubtedly for their files in Moscow. What a waste of resources. No wonder they lost the cold war! We've stayed in touch through the years, through the collapse of the Soviet Union and the many wars, revolutions, booms, and busts that followed. He now advises a Russian hedge fund. What else? When he called me the other day he was in a somewhat agitated state. He said the damage caused to the Russian wheat crop last year by the draught and fires was so severe, they were unlikely to recover next year. As a result, Russia was likely to swing from a net exporter to a net importer in 2011, possibly requiring as much as 3 million metric tonnes. If his analysis is correct, this would be hugely bullish news not only for wheat, but... Read full article... More on agriculture: Porter Stansberry: Food crisis looming... prices set to skyrocket... Five dangers to global crops that could send food prices through the roof The No. 1 commodity story of the next decade may have nothing to do with precious metals

Introducing the world's next reserve currency Posted: 06 Jan 2011 11:34 PM PST From Sovereign Man: Without a doubt, the existing global financial system depends on the widespread use of fiat currencies issued by insolvent governments. The wealth of the world’s large financial institutions requires that there be currencies with sufficient size and circulation to absorb massive capital flows. ... The dollar, euro, and yen have bond markets of such size that getting liquid is never a problem, even for billions of dollars. There is always a market for treasury securities, hence they are considered 'cash equivalents.' You couldn't do the same thing in the Kingdom of Bhutan with its tiny $3.5 billion economy. If you tried to move $100 million into Bhutan, its currency (the ngultrum) would spike. In the U.S., Europe, and Japan, $100 million barely registers a blip. Over the last few years, though, the confidence has begun to fade quickly, and the reserve currency issuing governments are starting to be viewed with increasing skepticism. The thing that's missing right now is an acceptable alternative... Read full article... More on China: China could secretly be buying massive amounts of gold How China is virtually guaranteeing uranium investments right now GOLD CRAZY: New wave of Chinese money is set to slam the gold market

Is Another Giant Precious Metals Bear Raid Coming This Morning? Posted: 06 Jan 2011 08:35 PM PST Gold pole-axed, but bugs (and others) calm.  ADP says their own December employment data "looks suspicious".  Gallup Finds Unemployment at 9.6% in December.  US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13th...and much more. ¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver Not much happened in the gold market on Thursday.  The price topped out around $1,380 shortly before London opened...and then declined gently to its low of the day [$1,363.90 spot] around 11:15 a.m. in New York.  The gold price subsequently recovered and closed down about eight bucks on the day. Silver's high came shortly after trading commenced in the Far East yesterday...and then declined very slowly and hit bottom [$28.79 spot] at the same moment as gold...around 11:15 a.m. Eastern.  Silver closed down twenty cents on the day. The dollar continued to head north.  Yesterday it closed up another 60 basis points.  It's amazing how the dollar, which was about to break down through its 50-day moving average on December 31st, all of a sudden developed some legs on the following Monday...and has been on a tear ever since.  Here's the 6-month dollar chart.    Despite the fact that gold was only down a handful of dollars on the day, the gold stocks got sold off pretty hard for no reason that I could see, with the HUI down a surprising 2.39%.  But, behind the scenes, most of the silver stocks got absolutely smoked right across the board.  Considering the price action, there was absolutely no reason why this should have been the case...and I've learned to be suspicious when I see such not-for-profit selling coming out of a clear blue sky.    Thursday's CME Delivery Report showed that 5 gold and 85 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday.  In silver, JPMorgan as the big issuer...and Prudential was the big stopper, with the Bank of Nova Scotia coming in a distant second.  The link is here. There were no changes in GLD yesterday, but 781,672 ounces of silver were withdrawn from the SLV ETF. The U.S. Mint reported selling another 9,000 ounces of gold eagles, plus 155,000 silver eagles.  January gold eagles sales stand at 23,000 ounces...and silver eagle sales total 2,140,000. Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Wednesday, they reported receiving a net 552,841 troy ounces of silver.  The link to that action is here. It was no surprise to me to see that Sprott Asset Management in Toronto had to wait such a long time before receiving the 16 million ounces of silver it had purchased on the open market.  I had know that they were having problems, but was sworn to secrecy.  It took them ten weeks to get it all.  They were given a delivery schedule of about 1.5 million ounces per week...and that's pretty much the way it came in the door.  1.5 million ounces per week is a hair over 11% of world silver production during that time period.  One would have to conclude that large quantities of good delivery silver bars simply do not exist. While we're on the subject of silver, here's Nick Laird's updated "Silver 7" graph from sharelynx.com showing yesterday's blood bath.    Click here to enlarge. Sponsor Advertisement Great Panther Silver Limited (TSX: GPR) is one of the fastest growing primary silver producers in Mexico.  The Company's organic growth strategy will see output from mining operations increase by 30% in 2011 to 3.0 million ounces silver equivalent and again by 27% in 2012 to 3.8 million ounces silver equivalent, providing strong leverage to rising silver prices.  The Company has also been growing its resource and reserve base at both 100% owned operations.  A new resource/reserve estimate was released for the Guanajuato Mines in late December 2010 and a new resource/reserve estimate for the Topia Mines is expected during the first quarter is 2011.  The Company is also advancing drilling activities at its new discovery at the San Ignacio property in Guanajuato.  Great Panther continues to replace mined ounces, grow resources and reserves at both operations, and is targeting a 10 year mine live at each. Great Panther is committed to becoming a leading primary silver producer by acquiring, developing and profitably mining precious and base metals in Latin America.  For more information, please visit the website at www.greatpanther.com or contact Erick J. Bertsch, VP Corporate Development, toll free at 1-888-355-1766 or by email at ebertsch@greatpanther.com ¤ Critical Reads Subscribe Private report: US added 300,000 jobs in December My first story today is from yesterday's King Report.  The ADP's jobs report came out on Wednesday...and it was all sunshine and moonbeams.  Companies added nearly 300,000 jobs in December, according to an unofficial count by a private payroll firm — more than in any month in the past decade. The news raised hopes that the government's official report Friday on last month's job creation could be a blockbuster.  However, the hue and cry is already going up from many quarters that the numbers are phony.  Even some of the people that compiled the data are having a hard time swallowing it...saying that the jobs surge in December is "moderately suspicious".  You can read all about it...and the headline states "Private report: US added 300,000 jobs in December".  The link to the AP story is here. View full GSD edition Gallup Finds Unemployment at 9.6% in December Wading into the unemployment/employment numbers is this gallup.com story that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau.  Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.6% at the end of December -- up from 9.3% in mid-December and 8.8% at the end of November.  The story...filed from Princeton, New Jersey...is headlined "Gallup Finds Unemployment at 9.6% in December"...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6-Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging Strangely enough, my next story is the same as the last one, except Tyler Durden over zerohedge.com really does a number on the ADP data...based on the Gallup data...and suggests that a massive campaign is underway to make sure that this morning's job's report will be a barn-burner to the upside.  You don't have to waste your time reading the gallup.com story again...but everything that Tyler has to say imbedded in that story is a must read.  The zerohedge.com story is courtesy of reader 'David in California'...and is headlined "Gallup Finds Unemployment Increased In December, Underemployment Is At 6-Month High, Blasts Government Data Fudging".  The link is here. View full GSD edition US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13 The next story is courtesy of Washington state reader S.A...and is posted over at platts.com.  The headline reads "US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13".  One has to wonder how position limits in silver will be dealt with, as that is the only position limit that matters.  The link to the story is here. View full GSD edition Ron Paul: U.S. Government Must Admit It's Bankrupt Here's another zerohedge.com story...and this one is courtesy of Australian reader Wesley Legrand.  Imbedded in this very short story is a father/son interview of 'the two Pauls'...Ron and his son, Rand...by ABC News.  It's headlined "Ron Paul: U.S. Government Must Admit It's Bankrupt".  It's certainly worth your time...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Europe unveils sweeping plans to govern reckless banks Roy Stephens sent me three stories yesterday.  The first item is from yesterday's edition of The Telegraph.  It's an Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering that's headlined "Europe unveils sweeping plans to govern reckless banks".  The European Commission's "Framework for Bank Recovery and Resolution" draws on Scandinavia's hard-line approach during their banking crises in the early 1990s.  If you have the time, this is worth the read...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Hungary Poses a Serious Challenge for the EU Roy's second offering is an op-ed piece from yesterday...and is posted over at German website spiegel.de.  The headline reads "Hungary Poses a Serious Challenge for the EU".  The Hungarian government has introduced a [draconian] set of new laws restraining the media...plus a "crisis tax" on investors, the latest in a series of profoundly illiberal power grabs. There can be no doubt that Hungary poses a very serious challenge for the European Union. Now Europe must defend its principles.  I found this worth reading...and the link is here. View full GSD edition Assassination deepens divide in Pakistan Roy's last story was out of yesterday's edition of The New York Times, but since it's subscriber protected, I couldn't use it.  But the story was reprinted word-for-word in the Pittsburg Post-Gazette...and here it is.  As you know, the U.S. and Pakistan are 'allies' of sorts...but Pakistan is sliding further down the slippery slope towards anarchy...and this doesn't help things.  The story, filed from Islamabad, is headlined "Assassination deepens divide in Pakistan"...as hundreds of supporters cheer accused killer of Pakistan governor.  The funeral of the assassinated governor of Punjab province...and the cheering of his killer in court Wednesday, highlighted the intensifying struggle between secular and religious forces in Pakistan that has grown nastier than ever.  The link is here. View full GSD edition Gold pole-axed, but bugs (and others) calm Posted: 06 Jan 2011 08:35 PM PST Link:  Gold pole-axed, but bugs (and others) calm Image:  My only gold-related story today is one that appeared over at the marketwatch.com website that's headlined "Gold pole-axed, but bugs (and others) calm"...but the radical gold bugs, and even some more orthodox observers, remain calmly confident. I borrowed this story from a GATA release...and it's very much worth the read.  The link is here.

US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13 Posted: 06 Jan 2011 08:35 PM PST Link:  US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13 Image:  The next story is courtesy of Washington state reader S.A...and is posted over at platts.com.  The headline reads "US CFTC to vote on delayed position limit proposal on January 13".  One has to wonder how position limits in silver will be dealt with, as that is the only position limit that matters.  The link to the story is here.

Gold Falls vs. Dollar, Hong Kong Premiums Rise on "Very Good" Asian Buying Posted: 06 Jan 2011 04:45 PM PST Bullion Vault

New Year’s Resolutions and Predictions Posted: 06 Jan 2011 02:51 PM PST The New Year invites guesses about the year ahead. I thought I wouldn't bother this year, but then I found myself scribbling out some investment resolutions and predictions on a napkin over breakfast. Here are some of them: 1. Ignore the "gold is in a bubble crowd." The mainstream press doesn't understand gold. They look at the price and think it's expensive. Instead, they should turn it around and question the value of the dollar. Gold is best thought of as a play on the creditworthiness of paper money. When people worry about the printing presses, gold does well. As most governments have huge deficits to finance, gold shouldn't collapse. Besides, on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold is still below its all- time high in 1980. It would have to trade north of $2,000 an ounce to break it. Gold stocks are the best way to play gold because they are going to put up a stellar year of earnings in 2011. Many will mint money at $1,400 an ounce. Stay long gold stocks. 2. Stick with the fundamentals. People come up with all kinds of crazy indicators to try to predict what the market is going to do. The year 2010 had a couple of really silly ones that got a lot of press. Anyone remember the "Hindenburg Omen?" That people gave any credence to this idea at all makes me wonder about the survivability of our species. But it wasn't the only one. I clipped out and saved a column from Barron's dated July 5, 2010, giving serious ink to the idea of the "Death Cross" - another indicator that cropped up in 2010 and predicted the market would crash. Of course, the market is 25% higher since. Ignore these contrivances. The future is unpredictable. You're better off studying businesses and trying to buy only cheap stocks. Move to cash when you can't find anything to buy and wait. It's worked for me anyway. 3. Question the "US blue chips are cheap" argument. This one is controversial because you couldn't find a money manager today who doesn't think US blue chips - Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft and the like - are cheap. Nearly everyone does. That's the problem. Something is wrong here. Microsoft trades at only 12 times earnings, but perhaps deserves that multiple. Yes, it generates a lot of cash, but it has done little with it for shareholders' benefit. The problem is that a lot of these big firms hoard cash, earning nothing, or spend it on value-destroying acquisitions. All that great cash flow these firms generate never gets into shareholders' pockets. Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Cisco and Intel are examples of companies that throw off lots of cash and carry excess cash...yet pay hardly anything to shareholders. As Bill Miller, manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust, points out: "[These companies] all could EASILY pay out 70% of their free cash flows as dividends and still build cash on the balance sheet. If they did so, it is hard (nay, impossible) to believe their stocks would not move dramatically higher. My guess is that at worst they would trade at between a 4% and a 5% dividend yield, about where much-slower-growing utilities trade, providing an immediate gain of over 30% to their owners." I agree. If big blue chips were smart allocators, they'd be great investments. Look at what McDonald's has done. Or even IBM, which trades at a higher price-to-earnings ratio than Microsoft, a notoriously poor allocator of capital. Until these big blue chips start thinking about shareholders, I don't think they are especially cheap. They probably trade where they should trade. Meanwhile, I still find better bargains among smaller-cap stocks, in which the people running the show have skin in the game. I'd rather invest in these names than some giant corporation that hands its executives lush option packages. Over the long haul, I prefer "owners" versus "renters." 4. Stay with commodities where supply is tight and there is no immediate cure. I think 2011 will be more difficult for commodity investors. Mining companies are pouring record amounts of cash toward new projects. That's like turning on the shot clock in basketball. There is a window to score here, but it is closing. Some commodities, though, ought to do better than others. There is an old market saying that says, "Good things happen to cheap stocks." Even though we can't predict when things will happen, a cheap stock usually doesn't need much help to produce a sizeable gain. In the commodity world, a similar saying might be "Good things happen to commodities where supply is tight and finding more is not easy." Coking coal is a good example. Quality deposits are hard to find. Steelmakers are looking all over the world for new sources of supply. But then, in recent days, the sky opened up in Australia. The rain was so torrential, it's halted exports of about 40% of the world's coking coal. A whole bunch of companies declared force majeure, saying they would not be able to meet supply contracts. No one could've predicted that, but good things tend to happen to such commodities. Coking coal prices will surely spike upward in the second quarter. Already, coking coal contracts for January-March are $225 a tonne, the second highest on record. For 2011, I'd say uranium has the most upside potential, outside of the precious metals. Even though prices rose in 2010, they still don't compensate miners for the risk of building new mines. It's also a very concentrated industry, like coking coal. More than 60% of all uranium comes from just 10 mines. Stay long those uranium stocks. What about the biggest potential correction on the downside? I'd say agricultural commodities. We're going to see record planting all over the world. My guess is that these plantings will be enough to dent to the run of commodities such as wheat and corn. Good for stocks such as Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE:PPC), though, which should enjoy a fall in feed costs. 5. Keep traveling. I always learn something new when I travel and often uncover new investment ideas as well. All of which is to say it's a good thing to leave your desk and step out into the world. This year, I have a number of places and people I'd like see and meet. For instance, in March, I plan to check out Colombia. And in May, I hope to visit South Africa. 6. Keep a sense of humility. The most important resolution is one I make to myself every year: It is to keep a sense of humility about the markets. Unpredictable things happen all the time. There is some element of luck involved, for good or ill. And everyone - no exceptions - gets his head handed to him at some point or other in his investing life. If you play long enough, you will have your share of losses and disappointments. As Roy Neuberger wrote in his memoir, So Far, So Good: The First 94 Years: "Always-right investors don't exist, except among liars." So there is no room for overconfidence, stubbornness or arrogance. Take your gains and losses with cheerfulness and a light touch. Don't be afraid to say, "I don't know." Keep an open mind. Keep learning. And enjoy the ride. Here's to 2011! Regards, Chris Mayer, for The Daily Reckoning Australia Similar Posts: Australian Trade Deficit Grows for 75th Consecutive Month Chinese Foreign Mining Acquisition Equal to All of 2007 Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) Increases Revenues But Not Earnings With Coles BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) to Report Second Half Results Today Proposed China Boycott of Aussie Iron Ore Majors

US Economic Decline a Believable Scenario Posted: 06 Jan 2011 02:44 PM PST Did we give you all our Predictions-Plus? You know, the things you OUGHT to believe, even if they are not guaranteed, sure-fire, absolutely, 100% in-the-bag. Here's another one: The US Empire Has Peaked Out. We don't know if it is true or not. And in the last two centuries it was a mistake to bet against America. But this is the 21st century. Things have changed. Where is the world's fastest train? Where is the world's tallest building? Where is GDP growing fastest? Where are most cars being made...and sold? Who graduates the most engineers? Who pours the most cement? Who produces the most steel? The fact is, if the word has an "est" on the end of it, it is probably not referring to the USA. Unless it is talking about debt. Of which, the US has the MOSTEST in the world. What a change this is from a few years ago. Remember when the US was on top of the world...trying to get other nations to straighten up? Now, it's America who is slouching...while the rest of the world wags its finger. Here's The Telegraph: "We're not going to allow our American friends to melt the dollar," said Mr. Mantega, [Brazil's finance minister] who views the US government's move to pump $600bn (£387bn) into its economy as an unfair attempt to help exports. "There are infinite measures that we can take. One of them is to manage the entry of speculative capital in the short-term." His comments came after Chile's central bank announced a plan to buy $12bn (£7.7bn) of US dollars on international markets on Monday in an attempt to stem its own currency appreciation. The Chilean peso has gained by more than 17pc cent against the US dollar since June, fuelled by increases in the price of copper, which is Chile's biggest export. It was Mr. Mantega who coined the term "currency war" last year as he voiced concerns that Brazilian exports were being damaged. In October he tripled the tax on foreign investments in some bonds to six per cent, a measure he said had since been "effective". Now, it's the "banana republics" that are doing the responsible thing. They're trying to protect themselves. It's the US Fed that has gone bananas - trying to print its way out of a debt deflation. The emerging economies are growing fast - like the US in the 19th and early 20th centuries. In a few years, if this continues, they'll overtake America as the biggest economies on the planet. Then, a few years later, they'll have the most lethal military forces too. Maybe it won't happen. We don't know. We can't tell you what tomorrow's newspapers will say, let alone those 10 or 20 years in the future. But this is not an ordinary prediction. This is a "Prediction Plus." You ought to believe it, even if it turns out not to be true. Why? Because there's a downside to every upside... Because every empire eventually declines... Because the US is a high-cost, high tax, high debt economy, competing against cheaper economies less burdened by debts and taxes... Because the US is full of zombies, people who produce nothing, while emerging markets are relatively zombie-free... Because the US has enjoyed two centuries of success; failure is bound to await somewhere... Because the US is broke...with a $200 trillion funding gap... Because US labor claims to be "skilled"...but what kind of a skill is a degree in "communications" or "sociology"? And because US assets are already fully priced - as if the US could expect to be the world's hegemonic power forever. Because...because...because... Most importantly, investors still buy US bonds and the US dollar in a crisis. When the real crisis comes, they'll wish they had bought something else. Regards, Bill Bonner, for The Daily Reckoning Australia Similar Posts: HSBC Reveals Days of the Dollar are Numbered The Investor in Indian Bonds has Ben Bernanke on His Side US Has Highest Unemployment Rate of All Major Economies CRB Commodities Index Has Largest Decline in 50 Years Will Synchronized Rate Cuts Solve International Financial System Problems?

Sharps Pixley Returns to the Gold Game Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST A very old name in the bullion trade – Sharps Pixley Ltd. – is returning to selling gold bars and coins, initially to the United Kingdom public but with ideas of going further afield, starting with continental Europe.

Metals Grind Lower as Economy Strengthens Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST Gold prices appear to have narrowly taken out trend line set from late October, reinforcing the likelihood of a triple top at $1424.60 and exposing Fibonacci retracement at $1326.50. But a head-fake remains a possibility.

Take This Job & Keep It Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST A lower level of jobs being created – still near last year's monthly average levels – gave bullion prices a much-needed mini-boost, following the days of incessant selling it had experienced for most of this week.

The New Gold Rush Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST As confidence in global currencies wanes, the world's appetite for gold will increase.

LBMA Analysts Tally 2010 Forecast Results Posted: 06 Jan 2011 10:00 AM PST Now it's the turn for all-comers to take on the LBMA analysts in the 2011 competition. There are significant prizes on offer, starting with 100 ounces of fine silver for the best silver price forecaster.

Massive Raid failed again...silver is the attempted "mark" Posted: 06 Jan 2011 09:57 AM PST

Precious Metals and Stocks converging to top together in January Posted: 06 Jan 2011 08:24 AM PST Precious Metals and Stocks converging to top together in January David Banister- www.MarketTrendForecast.com In recent articles and forecast updates for my subscribers, I have been preparing them for a top in Precious Metals and US Markets around Mid January.  We may have already seen the intermediate top in Gold and Silver recently, and the SP 500 and US markets are not far behind. There are a few factors I look at to forecast pivot tops and bottoms consistently and a little ahead of the curve when my crystal ball is clear.  I look at Sentiment readings, Elliott Wave patterns (As I view them), and Fibonacci relationships and time.  If all of these are lining up to give me enough evidence of a convergence and a bottom or top, then I go ahead and make the call or begin to forewarn. In the case of Gold, we see a really muddy chart pattern over the last several weeks that to me can only be read as toppy after a near $390 rally off the February lows this year.  There are no clear Elliott Wave patterns anymore over the past few weeks, and the recent drop from $1422 to the $1360 ranges also doesn't compute well for me if I'm a bull. I have been on the long side of Gold since February of 2010, with the one intermittent bearish call I made in June before a huge drop.  It looks like now is a good time for Gold and Silver to pause in the long uptrend, which still has about 3-4 years remaining if I'm right.  This next pullback is likely to take Gold down to $1270-$1280 and then I will assess from there the next direction and price action.  As you can see in the chart below, the recent action is toppy looking and could be read as bearish. The SP 500 as I have outlined near year end 2010 is in the final stages of the advance from the Summer lows of 1010 on the SP 500 on July 1st.  The Fibonacci and wave relationships then have been quite symmetrical and I see no difference on this final leg up.  The difficulty is assessing whether this final 5th wave to the upside will extend past my 1285 targets and run to 1315, or truncate just below and begin the correction.  I am looking for about 105 points SP 500 correction from the 1285-1315 topping areas over 7-10 weeks.  This too will work off extremely bullish sentiment readings which are running at or near the same highs as the January 2010 and April 2010 highs which I had forecasted as well.  The areas that would be hit hardest in the coming wave 2 correction will be small cap stocks, so lightening up in that area and buying protection is not a bad idea to protect your long portfolio positions.   Nobody rings bells at the bottom or tops, so I look for enough clues converging at the same time and then prepare my subscribers and myself accordingly before the major turn begins.  If you would like to benefit from my forecasts, please check us out at www.MarketTrendForecast.com

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly Posted: 06 Jan 2011 07:12 AM PST Gold saw a $5.65 gain at $1379.75 in Asia before it fell to see a $9.55 loss at $1364.55 by late morning in New York, but it then bounced back higher in the last couple of hours of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.19%. Silver rose to $29.42 and fell to $28.78 before it also rallied back higher in late trade, but it still with a loss of 0.14%.

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