saveyourassetsfirst3 |
- The Dollar Bear Is Returning In 2011! Got Gold?
- The Year of Living Quantitatively
- The Impossibility of a Gold Bubble
- Silver Lease Rate Jumped today...
- No Signs of a Gold Bubble Despite Record Advances in 2010
- Gold and the Economy : Don’t be fooled
- Indicators Show Little Stress – Tax Loss Selling Bargain Idea
- Trading Comments, 27 December 2010 (posted 15h15 CET):
- Is China Behind the Big Silver Short?
- Rick Rule Very Bullish On Silver For 2011
- Dollar Outlook Mixed in Thin Holiday Trade
- Thoughts on the Markets as We Approach the End of 2010
- Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
- India Markets Monday Wrap-Up: Selling Intensifies During Closing Hours
- Buch - 'Nach der Krise: Auf dem Weg in die Welt von Morgen', von Franck Biancheri
- Book - 'World crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards Europe and the World in the decade from 2010 to 2020', by Franck Biancheri
- What is up with netdania.com?
- This past week in gold
- The Working Poor
- Buy the dip
- 2010 U.S. Dollar Chart – Currency in Bacon
- Harvey Organ interview
- Newb Investor
- THE BEAR WILL RETURN IN 2011
- Platinum and Palladium More Popular Than Gold
| The Dollar Bear Is Returning In 2011! Got Gold? Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:46 AM PST These days it is almost impossible to find anyone who is long-term bearish on [the U.S. dollar], the stock market or the economy but I think they are all going to be wrong - horribly wrong. I believe that in 2011 inflation will spike horribly, the dollar will collapse, the stock market will begin its third leg down in the secular bear market and the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one. Words: 555 |
| The Year of Living Quantitatively Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:30 AM PST There are increasingly those who predict hyperinflation, which is popularly defined as rapidly-rising prices that soon reach un-payable levels, and which is always caused by the true definition of inflation, which is (according to the Mogambo Big Book Of Economic Stuff (MBBOES), "A gigantic growth in the money supply, which is caused by banks deliberately acting like greedy, lying, filthy pigs who deserve to be thrown in jail." I am, as you probably guessed, one of those people, although I seem to be the only one who is literally screaming his guts out in fear about the inflation in prices caused by the Federal Reserve creating so much money, and who is, again literally, puking his guts out in fear that the Federal Reserve is in the beginning stage of a long period of massive growth in the money supply, starting with the $1.2 trillion that will be created by quantitative easing 2 this year. This year! In One Freaking Year (OFY)! $1.2 trillion of new money in One Freaking Year (OFY)! It boggles the mind! Well, this barfing thing has elicited two responses, one of which is my wife saying, "I'm not cleaning that up!" followed by her saying, "Clean that up!" followed by, "This is the last time I am telling you to clean that up or there will be no fried foods in this house for an entire month!" followed by her saying, "Thanks for cleaning that up, moron!" The other response is that I am happy to report that cleaning up Mogambo Vomit Of Fear (MVOF) has a decidedly calming effect on people who are screaming in outrage and fear at the slimy treachery of the Federal Reserve creating so much money, and which is indeed fortunate for me, as it allowed me to calmly read Victor Sperandeo writing in this week's Barron's, that "in periods of hyperinflations, gold tends to appreciate by 2,000% to 50,000% against a hyperinflated currency." Wow! As for a hyperinflated currency, the monetary base jumped a mighty $53 billion last week to $2.03 trillion, which is a hefty 2.7% jump in One Freaking Week (OFW)! And much more to come! And so, if I read my Sperandeo correctly, gold at $1,400 an ounce will "tend" to go up in price by 20 times to 500 times, taking gold to somewhere between $28,000 an ounce and $700,000 an ounce? Whee! Maybe this increase in the money supply, which always leads to inflation in prices, is why bonds are dropping in price, too. And how much bond investment money has been "lost"? According to the WSJ a week or so ago, the 10-year notes have dropped 5.5%, and "the price of the 30-year bond, which is more sensitive to changes in yield because of its longer duration, has fallen by more than 7%," which was bad enough then, and is worse now. So, with $14 trillion in national debt, an average decline in value of only 6% would mean a paper loss of $840 billion? Wow! When you imagine these kinds of losses appearing on tax returns, you understand the frantic desperation of the government and the Federal Reserve to keep things up until the end of the tax/calendar year! Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital does not want to comment on taxes, the motives of the government, any of my paranoid conspiracy theories, the way my darling blue eyes twinkle with a light of their own, or even the horrific losses accruing to those stupid enough to own bonds at such ridiculously overvalued prices. Rather, he implies that it's going to get A Lot Worse From Here (ALWFH), because, "If bond prices failed to rise given such a Herculean effort to lift them up, there can be only one direction for them to go: down." And rightfully so, too! Inflation in prices is everywhere! And the rate of inflation in prices swamps the puny yields from overpriced bonds! For instance, the CRB index is up 13.1% year-to-date, and the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index (GSCI) is up 16.5%, too! And The Economist magazine shows the commodity-price dollar index for "all items" to be a whopping 30.6% year-over-year change! Food, for crying out loud, is up 24.9% in the selfsame last year! You can probably tell by the way I am in Mogambo Panic Mode (MPM) that these are nightmarish levels of inflation, and they are going to get worse, as in "more nightmarish," because Agora Financials' 5- Minute Forecast writes that because the price of oil is rising, and I assume will continue to rise with the presumed fall in the purchasing power of the dollar due to the foul Federal Reserve creating so many of them, "It's been said that every $1 added to the price of a barrel of oil is $100 billion subtracted from GDP." This dismal fact is borne out by FedEx just announcing that it will cost 3.9% more to ship something via FedEx, probably as the result of its profits calling by "18% in the third quarter" and that its "fuel costs were 26% higher than Q3 2009." United Parcel Service is raising its rates 4.9%, too. And there is more than the faint scent (sniff, sniff) of inflation in how The 5 went on, "Wholesale prices jumped 0.8% during November, according to the Labor Department. That's the fifth straight monthly rise. The increases were concentrated in energy (up 2.1% for the month) and food (up 1%)." For the month! These are inflationary increases for the month! At this point I caution you to calm down instead of completely freaking out and going to Washington, DC, vowing to throw out the inflationary idiots in Congress and burn the inflationary Federal Reserve to the ground. Instead, it is much easier to just buy gold, silver and oil to capitalize on the inflation in prices that all this new money from the Fed will cause. And trust me; there will be plenty of people ahead of you in wreaking revenge against the government, the Federal Reserve, and the scumbags who encouraged them when they realize, as H. L. Mencken once famously said, that we got "the government we deserve, good and hard." And while these rioting mobs angrily "take out the trash," you will be busy calculating how rich you are after buying gold, silver and oil at these low, low prices, and happily muttering to yourself, "Whee! That investing stuff was easy!" The Mogambo Guru The Year of Living Quantitatively originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day." |
| The Impossibility of a Gold Bubble Posted: 27 Dec 2010 04:29 AM PST In an ocean of propaganda, there are few forms of disinformation as annoying as the endless "gold bubble" babble. Typically, precious metals commentators will refute such nonsense by pointing out that compared to other commodity prices today, and compared to the gold price itself in 1980 that gold is still unequivocally "cheap" – and certainly does not represent an asset bubble in any respect. Despite the quintupling of the price of gold off of its absolute bottom, gold is arguably just as "cheap" today as it was when the price was below $300/oz. The reason is simple: the fiat paper currencies in which the price of gold must be expressed have been debauched/diluted by Western central banks (and the governments they represent) just as fast as the price of gold has been able to rise. Indeed, more worrisome is the fact that all Western governments look vulnerable to debt-default in their futures, with that fate all but inevitable for several European governments and (of course) the United States. Even worse than that, however, is that all of the actions of these governments make it abundantly clear that they are prepared to embrace hyperinflation (and a de facto default through driving their currencies to zero) rather than formally defaulting – and imposing the "hit" on bond-holders which is the only path to solvency for several of these nations. As the probability of default-through-hyperinflation moves from being likely to near-certain, this directly implies a corollary in the precious metals market: that it is impossible for gold to become an asset bubble. There is nothing either radical or surprising in such a conclusion. In fact, I have already implied this in a previous two-part series on precious metals and hyperinflation. It is a matter of simple arithmetic that as currencies go to zero, the price of hard assets go (literally) to infinity – with gold and silver being at the top of the list of "hard assets". This is the same thing as saying that gold (and silver) won't be "fairly valued" until the price reaches "infinity". And since (by definition) any finite number we are capable of expressing is less than infinity, it is mathematically impossible for the price of gold to ever reach a level where gold would represent an asset bubble. The only development which could negate this trend is if Western governments, and especially the U.S. (whose dollar is still the world's "reserve currency") were able to put an end to their spiraling debts and spiraling money-printing. In terms of the economic fundamentals of these nations, I have already been crystal-clear in previous commentaries as to the only policies which can restore these economies to a solvent basis (even after a debt-default): a four-day work week to put an end to massive, structural unemployment; and a taxation overhaul which disgorges the $10's of trillions in idle wealth being hoarded by 21st century Western misers. Without moving to a four-day work week, no Western economy can possibly have enough taxpayers to support even a minimal level of government. Again, this is just simple arithmetic. With more old people to support (by a vast margin) than at any time in our societies' histories, we can't expect to pay out the vast entitlements that pampered baby-boomers expect with far fewer taxpayers than at any time in history. Similarly, our economies are certainly doomed to implode if the despicable "hollowing-out" of our wealth (from income taxation) is not reversed. It is a matter of unequivocal arithmetic that all income taxation systems suck all the wealth out of the pockets of the poor and middle-class, and deposit that wealth into the hoards of the ultra-rich misers. It is also one of the most fundamental principles of economics that economic health is a direct function of the "velocity of money" in our economies. In other words, in any/every capitalist economy, our credit-based "growth" is only sustainable if money is vigorously spent and re-spent as it moves from one hand to the next. |
| Silver Lease Rate Jumped today... Posted: 27 Dec 2010 03:04 AM PST I just noticed silver lease rates took a jump into mostly positive territory today. Further evidence of tightening? |
| No Signs of a Gold Bubble Despite Record Advances in 2010 Posted: 27 Dec 2010 02:52 AM PST
This essay is based on the Premium Update posted on December 22nd, 2010 History has been peppered with financial bubbles and we'll get to that, but first, is gold in a bubble? So far it's been the amazing, runaway investment of the past decade. If you'd put your money into gold at the lows about 10 years ago, you'd have made approximately 400% return. That's left pretty much everything else—stocks, China, housing—in the dust, and we don't mean gold dust. We would be willing to bet that if you asked for a show of hands of how many people own gold in an audience of 100 seasoned investors, probably less than 10 might raise their hands. If you asked the same question in a room of average, random people probably one or two hands at the most might go up. Gold is clearly not in the bubble stage yet. What do tulips, Mississippi, Internet, Dot.Com, the South Seas and Florida housing have in common? They were all at one time bubbles that burst leaving financial ruin in their wake. Although some of these bubble episodes happened centuries ago, the events are eerily similar to today's bubbles and busts: low interest rates, easy credit terms, widespread public participation, bankrupt governments, price inflation, and frantic attempts by government to keep the booms going and government bailouts of companies after the crash – gold is not plagued by any of these problems. Niall Ferguson in his book "The Ascent of Money," distils the formation of bubbles into five stages: 1. Some change in economic circumstances creates new and profitable opportunities. If we look at the above analysis, then gold is probably only in stage one where changes in economic circumstances create profitable opportunities to buy the yellow metal. We are still far away from euphoria. Although gold has attracted some first time investors prompted by fear and searching for a safe haven for their capital, gold is far away from being a crowded trade. If you're not sure, just ask your friends, acquaintances how many of them have bought gold. With crumbling infrastructure, runaway debt, paralyzed government, military bogged down in pointless faraway non-wars and troubles in the eurozone, there are plenty of motives to buy gold. Gold will correct during its run up and we hope that it does. When it does, all the people shouting "bubble" will smirk and we will be out there buying more. We think that bubble is not in gold, it is in what is driving the price of gold—fiat money creation. Moving to short to medium-term signals, let's take a look at the precious metals market through the perspective of currencies and the general stock market (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The Euro Index chart below highlights attempts to move below the medium-term support line. The head-and-shoulders pattern (which might be completed even though it appeared rather unlikely just a few days ago) formation is about to be signal a significant move lower. Note that the breakout below the rising trend channel was verified a little over a week ago. Since that time, Euro Index levels have steadily declined with close to a 3% drop seen as of Tuesday. The outlook here remains quite bearish. In this week's long-term USD Index chart, we see trends, which are the exact opposite of those seen in the Euro Index – which is normally the case. The resistance level (dashed declining line), which is now in play, is rather weak, having been formed from two highs, one of which was formed very recently. Please note that the upper border of the previous trend channel (thick blue line on the chart) was much stronger as it was based on two tops that were a few months apart from each other and also from the moment when the resistance was in play (in November) – please note that this level stopped the rally for a while. The relationship between the USD Index and gold, silver, and mining stocks, however, is not as clear as it once was. This seems to be due to the changes seen in the Euro Zone, the euro being a very large part of the USD Index. Overall, there appears to be a slightly greater chance that the USD Index level will move higher and the outlook for precious metals is therefore slightly bearish at this time. The very long-term SPX S&P 500 chart is virtually unchanged from last week. The RSI level is now at 68.41 and this level has corresponded to local tops several times in the past. Perhaps stocks are near a local top also this time. Summing up, the sentiment for the general stock market is now bearish as a local top appears to be very close and it seems that the breakout visible on the very long-term chart might turn out to be a fake-out. The implications are also slightly bearish for the precious metals sector as well. However, long-term fundamentals are intact. Just because gold has been in a long-term advance does not mean it represents a bubble. Neither does volatility as long as it is within a reasonable range and there are reasons other than demand from Traders that justify such a move. We don't see any evidence of that in case of gold and silver. To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time. Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week! P. Radomski * * * * * Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio? Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders. Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits' Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free weekly trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations. All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments. By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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| Gold and the Economy : Don’t be fooled Posted: 27 Dec 2010 01:55 AM PST |
| Indicators Show Little Stress – Tax Loss Selling Bargain Idea Posted: 27 Dec 2010 01:13 AM PST As we look forward to the New Year, with light holiday liquidity currently in play, an informal "survey" of some of our trading brethren indicates a definite split amongst traders as to what to expect in the first two weeks of 2011, but so far our "canaries," indicators we rely on to signal stress, are not all that stressful. Two distinct camps are emerging in Traderland. The profit-taking-dominant camp and the surge-of-new-funds camp. The former is looking for a good pullback for gold, silver and most commodities, with the latter convinced that people who have positioned for that pullback will be disappointed by a surge of new funds flowing into the precious metals. ... |
| Trading Comments, 27 December 2010 (posted 15h15 CET): Posted: 27 Dec 2010 12:15 AM PST With London closed for two days and the Northeast US paralyzed by a winter blizzard, I expect the precious metals to be quiet, barring any unexpected new events. Gold 1) The position bought at |
| Is China Behind the Big Silver Short? Posted: 27 Dec 2010 12:06 AM PST Is China Behind the Big Silver Short? By Golden Economizer (Seeking Alpha) It is well known that the Chinese have been accumulating gold for at least a decade, and presumably silver as well, gold primarily for its monetary value, and silver for both its monetary and industrial value. In April of 2009, the Chinese Central Bank announced that it had secretly acquired 454 tons of gold bullion over the previous six years, supposedly all from Chinese domestic production, increasing their total stock from 600 metric tons to 1054 metric tons, and making them the fifth largest holder of gold bullion in the world. Quoting Dow Jones Newswire, April 24, 2009: The new figure leaves China as the fifth biggest holder of gold after the U.S, Germany, France and Italy. Including Switzerland's 1,040 tons, six countries and the IMF now have gold holdings of more than 1,000 tons.I find these numbers most curious and suspicious. The reputed 454 tons that the Chinese central bank claims to have acquired between 2003 and mid 2009 is just enough to put the Chinese ahead of the Swiss, (1054 tons to 1040 tons) making China the world's fifth largest holder of gold bullion by just 14 tons. I would wager they have a lot more gold stockpiled than that. This also begs several other questions: Why would the Chinese make this announcement at that particular point in time if their aim was secrecy in gold accumulation? If they admitted publically to holding 1054 tons, how much more do they really have? Was this alleged 454 tons all actually acquired from domestic sources or were they also buying through straw buyers on the Hong Kong exchange? And if they are secretly accumulating gold, are they also accumulating silver on the sly? Since China has been continually accumulating dollars for years as the unintended consequence of its large continual trade deficit with the US, they are always looking for new outlets to unload or invest them other than buying more US Treasuries and Agencies, with which they are already overloaded. Using their excess dollar reserves to stockpile strategic, monetary, and industrial commodities as a hedge against dollar inflation is clearly a wise strategy, even before the advent of QE1 and QE2. We can already see the effects of this stockpiling on commodity prices, most notably copper and rare earths, which are at record levels. The Chinese have also offered to bail out failing European economies with their excess dollars, among them Greece and Portugal. As reported by Bloomberg on October 19, 2010, Chinese silver exports declined 60% in the first eight months of this year. There could be several reasons for this: increased investment demand by the Chinese public, hoarding for industrial use by Chinese businesses, and accumulation by the Chinese Central Bank. China is now the world's third largest silver miner after Mexico and Peru, and the world's largest refiner of silver. There have been rumors that Chinese silver exports may be reduced to zero in 2011. Although they are now the world's biggest gold producer, China exports no gold, and increased their gold imports by nearly 500% in the first ten months of 2010, according to Bloomberg. Silver is a crucial material input for many high tech goods produced in China, and the Chinese government economists are surely wise enough to see that it will continue to get scarcer and more expensive in the coming years. They will be needing a ready supply of silver to dominate the world market in flat panel TV's, cell phones, computers, hybrid car batteries, solar collectors, and many more products too numerous to mention. The respected silver authority, Ted Butler, speculates in his recent December 21st article, "A Show Stopper," that the Chinese are behind the big concentrated short position in COMEX silver, which is currently about 300 million ounces among the eight largest commercial traders (and 500 million ounces total). The biggest single short position in COMEX silver in 2010, presumably held by JP Morgan (JPM), has been as high as 35% to 40% of total short interest according to CFTC commissioner Bart Chilton. This is a staggering concentration, obviously intended to suppress the price of silver, and has gone on continuously for several years at similar levels. Butler goes on to say "that would not appear to make sense" and "It will go down as the single dumbest trade in history." But I believe that Butler has underestimated the Chinese. What if the Chinese were going long buying silver on the COMEX and taking delivery, draining silver inventories, while simultaneously shorting silver on the COMEX and settling those contracts in cash or rolling them forward? Even if they took a loss on all their shorts, they would still be steadily accumulating physical metal, and the net result would be that they would be steadily and covertly acquiring physical silver at a higher than market price, but still keeping the market price suppressed to their own industrial producers, while at the same time propping up the weak currencies of the world's buyers of Chinese exports in developed countries. Only about 2% of COMEX silver contracts are actually settled by physical delivery, and the rest are settled for cash or rolled over. All the Chinese would have to do is take delivery on a greater quantity of physical metal from their longs than was demanded to close out their short positions, and they would be constantly accumulating physical silver without ever spiking the COMEX silver price. Ted Butler also says in his article that he was "rocked" to discover at the recent December CFTC hearing on silver position limits that the CME/COMEX, not the CFTC, has, up until now been making all the decisions on whether short positions in excess of the current very high position limits on the COMEX qualified for the exemption as true production hedges. Basically, the COMEX has been self regulating, a clear conflict of interest. This apparently will be changing soon. It has been suggested that the Chinese could simply use their massive buying power to go long COMEX silver and accumulate all they want by spiking the price (cornering the market), shutting out most other buyers. They certainly have sufficient dollar reserves to do this, but this would drive up the price of silver to Chinese domestic industry as well, thus raising the price of Chinese exports and cutting profits of Chinese producers and exporters. Also, if the Chinese were to drive up the price of silver by directly buying large quantities on world markets, they would crash the dollar, the euro, etc, reducing their own exports in the process. So far, the US government and their pawn, the CFTC, have been happy to look the other way on these manipulative, concentrated silver positions since they prop up the dollar and prevent the price of silver going to the stratosphere, but have completely neglected the consequences: a worldwide silver shortage, and allowing the Chinese to dominate the future market in high tech goods. So don't be expecting anything substantive to come out of next month's CFTC hearings as far as putting into place a realistic, enforceable limit on concentrated silver positions. What does this mean for silver investors? Get yourself some physical silver and take possession if you want any certainty of cashing in before the paper silver derivatives become worthless. If the Chinese are playing both the long and short sides of COMEX futures as I theorize, then it explains:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2436...mail_watchlist |
| Rick Rule Very Bullish On Silver For 2011 Posted: 27 Dec 2010 12:04 AM PST The perennial star of the Agora Financial Forum held each year in Vancouver, veteran stock broker Rick Rule came out strongly in defense of silver as a top pick for 2011 in an interview on King World News. Asked whether silver shortages would continue he said: 'I suspect it's true. One of the things that happens at least in the near-term, shortages and the price rises that they cause ironically exacerbate shortages. Meaning that more people are attracted to speculations in silver as the price goes up. The price of course has gone up because of that attraction. |
| Dollar Outlook Mixed in Thin Holiday Trade Posted: 26 Dec 2010 11:42 PM PST The short week between the Christmas and New Year holidays is typically characterized by substantially lower liquidity conditions, producing a period notoriously fraught with spikes of knee-jerk volatility amid otherwise stand-still calm. Indeed, traders would be wise to exercise extreme caution, both with initiating new positions and managing existing ones. With that said, it is still prudent to review the underlying drivers shaping currencies’ trajectories even if their response to these forces is not ideal over the near term, as it will be within the context of these themes that any trade decisions ought to be considered when price action cannot be taken as a reliable measure of the markets’ sentiments. Complete Story » |
| Thoughts on the Markets as We Approach the End of 2010 Posted: 26 Dec 2010 10:24 PM PST Richard Suttmeier submits: US stocks tacked on some decent gains during the four days before Christmas Eve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tacked on 81 points to 11,573 with the NASDAQ up 23 points to 2666, now down only 6.8% from its October 2007 highs. The US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.47, which is a drag on equity valuations. Comex gold drifted higher to $1380.7, while Nymex crude oil surged to $91.55 giving the gift of $3.00 per gallon regular gasoline. All of this price action occurred despite a stronger dollar. This week the focus is 2-Year, 5-Year and 7-Year auctions today through Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales on Thursday. Friday we wish all a Happy New Year. Tracking the US Capital Markets – US stocks are overvalued fundamentally and overbought technically on both daily and weekly charts.
The Yield on the 10-Year Note (3.397) – This week’s value level is 3.494 with the 200-day at 3.068. Comex Gold ($1380.7) – The 50-day is $1371.7 with this week’s risky level at $1401.2. Nymex Crude Oil ($91.55) – The 50-day is $85.23 with this week’s risky level at $93.28. The Euro (1.3113) – My weekly value level is 1.2906 with 50-day at 1.3089 and pivot at 1.3318. The Dow Industrial Average (11,573) – The 5-week MMA is 11,312 with weekly risky level at 11,629. Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. Complete Story » |
| Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News Posted: 26 Dec 2010 10:11 PM PST
Today's Markets
Monday's Economic CalendarThe SA Currents team contributed to this post. Complete Story » |
| India Markets Monday Wrap-Up: Selling Intensifies During Closing Hours Posted: 26 Dec 2010 09:56 PM PST Equitymaster submits: Cautious sentiments in global markets triggered by the rate hikes in China, led the Indian indices into negative territory in the latter half of today's session. While the BSE-Sensex closed lower by around 45 points (down 0.2%), the NSE-Nifty lost around 14 points (down 0.2%). While the BSE Midcap lost 0.2%, the BSE Smallcap index managed to buck the trend and closed higher by 0.2%. Barring FMCG, healthcare and IT stocks, most stocks across sectors closed weak. Complete Story » |
| Buch - 'Nach der Krise: Auf dem Weg in die Welt von Morgen', von Franck Biancheri Posted: 26 Dec 2010 09:22 PM PST - Pressemitteilung (27. Dezember 2010) -  Franck Biancheri nimmt in diesem Buch kein Blatt vor den Mund und entlarvt die europäischen Regierungen und Entscheidungseliten als verantwortungslose Leichtmatrosen, die einen Supertanker auf Sicht durch einen Sturm fahren. Er bietet einen Blick in die Zukunft Europas und der Welt bis 2020. Er füllt damit ein Manko an Visionen für die Zukunft unseres Kontinents in einer Welt von Morgen. Franck Biancheri, Jahrgang 1961, ist Forschungsdirektor des Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique. „Denn die gegenwärtige Krise ist nicht nur das „Ende der Welt von Gestern" sondern auch eine wunderbare Gelegenheit die „Welt von Morgen" zu gestalten; vorausgesetzt dass wir uns nicht über die Gefahren, Herausforderungen und Möglichkeiten, die vor uns liegen, täuschen." Kontakt: Laura Berger: presse@anticipolis.eu Anticipolis Online-Bestellung ------------------ Die Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise, deren Folgen seit zwei Jahren unsere Welt verheeren, markiert das Ende der Nachkriegsweltordnung. 1989 stürzte deren erster „Pfeiler", die Sowjetunion, und mit ihm der Ostblock ein; heute zerbricht der zweite „Pfeiler", die USA, und droht, den Westen mit in den Abgrund zu reißen. Zwei Jahrzehnte lebten wir in dem Irrglauben vom „Ende der Geschichte", der Westen und sein politisches und wirtschaftliches Modell hätten sich weltweit und für immer durchgesetzt. Deshalb ist es uns beinahe unmöglich, uns eine Welt von Morgen vorzustellen, in der die Geschicke der Welt nicht in Washington und der Wall Street diktiert werden, „amerikanisch" nicht notwendigerweise Synonym von „modern", und der Dollar nicht mehr Alleinherrscher an den Finanzmärkten ist. Wie die Regierungen und Menschen Osteuropas vor 1980 sind heute die Eliten und Medien des Westens unfähig, das „Undenkbare zu denken". Zu sehr sind sie damit beschäftigt, uns das „Unvergessliche vergessen zu lassen", nämlich die sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Verheerungen, die die Krise weltweit angerichtet hat. Dieses Buch will die Unfähigkeit zur Voraussicht unserer Regierungen und Entscheidungseliten kompensieren und entwirft eine konkrete Vision für Europa und die Welt bis 2020. Welche Konflikte können in der Welt von Morgen entstehen ? Wie sich auf die in den kommenden Jahren bevorstehenden Wirtschafts- und Währungsumbrüche vorbereiten? Welche Rolle für uns Europäer? Welche Rolle für die Schwellenländer Brasilien, Indien, Russland und zuvorderst China? Welche Schwierigkeiten sind für diese Länder mit ihrem Aufstieg zu Weltmächten verbunden? Wie können sich unsere Kinder auf die Herausforderungen der Welt von Morgen in Demokratie und Berufsleben vorbereiten? Dies sind einige der Fragen, auf die das Buch Antworten geben möchte. Es gibt Denkanstöße und Handlungsvorschläge für Bürger, Regierungen, Institutionen und Organisationen der Zivilgesellschaft. Denn die gegenwärtige Krise ist nicht nur das „Ende der Welt von Gestern", sondern auch eine einmalige Gelegenheit, die „Welt von Morgen" zu gestalten, vorausgesetzt, dass wir uns nicht über die Gefahren, Herausforderungen und Möglichkeiten, die vor uns liegen, täuschen. ------------------ Der Autor - Franck Biancheri Franck Biancheri, Jahrgang 1961, ist Forschungsdirektor des „Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique" (LEAP), das schon im Februar 2006 den Ausbruch der „umfassenden weltweiten Krise" korrekt vorausgesagt hatte. Seitdem antizipiert LEAP in dem monatlich herausgegebenen „Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin" (GEAB) mit verblüffender Präzision den Fortgang der Krise. Die Pressemitteilungen des GEAB werden in über siebzig Sprachen von mehr als zehn Millionen Lesern weltweit gelesen. Franck Biancheri ist auch einer der Väter des Erasmus-Programms. In den letzten zwanzig Jahre hat er europäische und außereuropäische Regierungen, die EU-Institutionen und Organisationen der Zivilgesellschaft in den Vereinigten Staaten, der Islamischen Welt, in Lateinamerika und in Asien beraten. Er ist Gründungspräsident der Newropeans. Franck Biancheris Website |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 09:13 PM PST - Press release (December 27, 2010) -  In this uncompromising book, Franck Biancheri (born 1961, Director of Studies at the Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique) attempts to address the lack of anticipation of European leaders and elites when it comes to the crisis and presents a concrete vision of the future in France, Europe and the world by 2020. "Because this crisis we are experiencing is not only the end of the "world before", it is also an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild a "world after", provided not to be mistaken about the dangers, challenges and opportunities that lie ahead." Contact: Laura Berger, Communication & media: presse@anticipolis.eu Anticipolis website Order online -------------------- The financial and economic crisis that the world has been facing in the past two years marks the end of the world order established after 1945. In 1989, the "Soviet pillar" has collapsed and we are now witnessing the accelerated decomposition of the "Western pillar" with the United States at the heart of the process of disintegration. After two decades spent living in the myth of an "ended history" in which our Western camp would be imposed universally, it is almost impossible to imagine "a world after" where tendencies would not be defined in Washington or Wall Street, where "Anglo-American" would not necessarily mean "modern" and where the dollar would no longer be king. As in Eastern Europe before 1989, neither our media nor our leaders are capable of helping us "imagine the unimaginable", they are too busy trying to make us "forget the unforgettable", in particular, the socio-economic consequences of the crisis throughout the world. This book attempts to fill this lack of anticipation of our leaders and elites by giving a concrete vision of the future in Europe and the world by 2020. What conflicts can this world-after-the-crisis generate? How to prepare for monetary and economic upheavals coming up in the next few years? How can we and should we cope as Europeans? How will interact the emerging powers such as Brazil, India, Russia and China in the first place? What difficulties will these countries meet on their way up? How can our children position themselves to prepare for this world after, as citizens and as professionals? These are some of the questions that this book tries to answer by providing leads for reflection and action to the individual as much as to the group. Because this crisis we are experiencing is not only the end of the "world before", it is also an unprecedented opportunity to rebuild a "world after", provided not to be mistaken about the dangers, challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. ------------- The author: Franck Biancheri Born in 1961, is the Director of studies at LEAP (Laboratoire Européen d'Anticipation Politique) which foresaw the "global systemic crisis" as early as February 2006, and which has ever since been anticipating its evolution in the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) whose public announcements are translated in more than 70 different languages and read by more than 10 million people worldwide each month. He is also one of the fathers of the Erasmus programme. Over the last twenty years, his activities have led him to bring his expertise to many governments and institutions of the European Union, as well as to the United States, the Muslim world, Latin America and Asia. He is also president of Newropeans. Franck Biancheri's website |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 02:35 PM PST Anybody have a clue as to why netdania.com isn't updating their gold and silver streaming charts? It hasn't been streaming since 12/23/10. This is my favorite way to follow gold/silver action.:thumpdown: |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 02:20 PM PST This past week in gold By Jack Chan at www.simplyprofits.org 12/25/2010  GLD – on sell signal.  SLV – on buy signal.  GDX – on sell signal.  XGD.TO – on sell signal. Summary Disclosure
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| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 01:47 PM PST 
The Working Poor Families Project has just released their policy brief for the winter of 2010-11. What they have discovered is that the number of working poor in the United States is higher than they have ever seen it before and it continues to increase at a staggering pace. The following are some of the key findings for 2009 that were pulled right out of their report.... * There were more than 10 million low-income working families in the United States, an increase of nearly a quarter million from the previous year. * Forty-five million people, including 22 million children, lived in low-income working families, an increase of 1.7 million people from 2008. * Forty-three percent of working families with at least one minority parent were low income, nearly twice the proportion of white working families (22 percent). * Income inequality continued to grow with the richest 20 percent of working families taking home 47 percent of all income and earning 10 times that of low-income working families. * More than half of the U.S. labor force (55 percent) has "suffered a spell of unemployment, a cut in pay, a reduction in hours or have become involuntary part-time workers" since the recession began in December 2007. Unfortunately, things are not going to be getting any better for the working poor. In the new "one world economy" that our politicians keep insisting is so good for us, millions upon millions of American workers now find that they have to compete for work with laborers on the other side of the globe that are willing to work for slave labor wages. This is causing millions of jobs to leave the United States and it is forcing wages down. Millions of Americans now find that they are making substantially less than they used to. If that has happened to you, perhaps you can take comfort in the fact that you are not alone. Or perhaps it is not that comforting. In any event, American workers are not just competing with each other anymore. Now there is the constant threat that all the jobs could just be sent overseas. As wages are forced down, a record number of working Americans are finding themselves forced to turn to food stamps and to other government anti-poverty programs. Millions of Americans have been forced to take part-time jobs in order to supplement their incomes. Millions of others have been forced to take part-time jobs because that is all they can find. This is all part of a long-term trend. The numbers don't lie. About the only people doing well are those on Wall Street and the very rich. Nearly every other segment of the population is getting poorer. The following are 10 statistics that I have shared previously, but I think that they do a really good job of highlighting the plight that the working poor in this country are now facing.... #1 In 2009, total wages, median wages, and average wages all declined in the United States. #2 Since the year 2000, we have lost 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were about 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs. Meanwhile, our population is getting larger. #3 As 2007 began, only 26 million Americans were on food stamps, but now 42 million Americans are on food stamps and that number keeps rising every single month. #4 Since 2001, over 42,000 U.S. factories have closed down for good. #5 One out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. #6 Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week. #7 The number of Americans working part-time jobs "for economic reasons" is now the highest it has been in at least five decades. #8 Ten years ago, the United States was ranked number one in average wealth per adult. In 2010, the United States has fallen to seventh. #9 In 1976, the top 1 percent of earners in the United States took in 8.9 percent of all income. By 2007, that number had risen to 23.5 percent. #10 According to one recent study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States are living below the poverty line in 2010. The United States is becoming poorer as a nation even as the boys up on Wall Street are busy grabbing a bigger share for themselves. We are rapidly becoming a nation that will have a very small privileged class of ultra-wealthy and a very large class of "workers" that is just barely trying to survive. So is the answer even more government handouts and even more government social programs? Of course not. What middle class Americans need are middle class jobs. But as I have written about previously, the United States is rapidly bleeding middle class jobs with no end in sight. Globalism has permanently changed the game. The middle class way of life that so many millions of Americans have been enjoying for so many decades is disappearing. Just because things were a certain way yesterday does not mean that things are going to be the same way tomorrow. The long-term economic trends that this column keeps talking about day after day after day are taking us all to a very dark economic place. But instead of facing reality, our federal government, our state governments and our local governments just keep borrowing massive amounts of dollars to try to paper over all of our problems. It is not going to work. Unless something is done to fix our structural economic problems, the economic decay is just going to get worse and all of this debt is eventually going to collapse our entire financial system. If you are a member of the working poor I wish I had better news for you. Things are not going to be getting better, and unfortunately millions more Americans will probably be joining you soon. |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 12:49 PM PST Yesterday, China raised its interest rates by a (whopping) 25 bais spoints. BFD. :reddy: The sell-off didnn't last very long.  |
| 2010 U.S. Dollar Chart – Currency in Bacon Posted: 26 Dec 2010 11:50 AM PST Visual Aid of U.S. Purchasing Power in 2009 – 2010 This easy to understand image illustrates how the U.S. dollar's purchasing power changed in 2009-2010 courtesy of Business Week and Ceerrrrohedge. Looky looky. Seriously, do you own sound money yet? This chic visual, prices 2010 things in terms of X in Y. Overall, the stock market in gold is down for the year. However real money itself (g&s), despite of the short-term memory of the cheerleaders, represented one of the best performing asset classes of 2010. Those who avoided stocks and invested in gold are ahead of those who did not. This witty one year purchasing power comparison might be met with a snicker for those wise enough to have spotted the trend in advance. It's still not to late. Even you bulldog!
Holy Bacon Francis! ~MV |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 10:40 AM PST |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 09:21 AM PST I would like to start investing into metals on a short term basis. I will still be keeping a separate investment of physical during my so called shorting. My question is what would be the best/most profitable way of going about this. My plan is to buy on lows and sell on highs. I am unsure whether I should go buy from my dealer, or if I should do some sort of online trading. My worry with physical purchases is that shipping will start to take a cut of the earnings. I really am new to this aspect of PM investing, so any help would be great. Thanks in advance. |
| Posted: 26 Dec 2010 08:10 AM PST By Toby Connor, GoldScents I think they are all going to be wrong, horribly wrong. I believe next year the stock market will begin the third leg down in the secular bear market. And the global economy will tip over into the next recession that will be much worse than the last one. I've gone over the 3 year cycle in the dollar index many times. The dip down into the next 3 year cycle low this spring should drive the final leg up in gold's massive C-wave. What I haven't talked much about is what happens after the dollar bottoms. I actually expect this three year cycle in the dollar to play out almost exactly like it did during the last three year cycle. When the dollar collapses this spring it will not only drive the price of gold to a final C-wave top, it will drive virtually all commodity prices through the roof, the most important being energy and to some extent food. It was the sudden massive spike in energy that drove the global economy over the edge into recession in late `07 and early `08. The implosion of the credit markets just exacerbated the problem. You can see on the following chart just as soon as Bernanke drove the dollar below long term historical support (80) oil took off on its parabolic move to $147. What followed was a collapse in economic activity and the beginning of the second leg down in the long term secular bear market for stocks. This was mirrored by the dollar rallying out of the 3 year cycle low. That rally was driven by the severe, but brief, deflationary pressures released as the global economy and then credit markets collapsed. We will see the same thing happen again. In his attempt to print prosperity and reflate asset prices Ben is going to spike inflation horribly as the dollar collapses down into the three year cycle low next spring. Just like in `08 that will tip the global economy back into recession and another deflationary period as the dollar rallies out of the three year cycle low. The stock market will begin the trip down into the next leg of the secular bear market that it's been in since 2000. The global economy will roll over into the next recession which I expect to be much worse than the one we just suffered, though mainly because it will begin with unemployment already at very high levels. Contrary to what economists and analyst are telling you, at the dollars three year cycle low next year it will be time to put our bear hats back on, prepare for hard times, and the next leg down in the stock market bear. I will leave the special Christmas subscription offer, (15 months for the price of 12), up for a few more days. If you want to take advantage of the discounted price, click here.
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| Platinum and Palladium More Popular Than Gold Posted: 25 Dec 2010 12:23 PM PST NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Will Rhind, head of U.S. operations for ETF Securities, explains why platinum and palladium are more popular among investors than the safer gold. http://www.thestreet.com/video/10954...l#720563199001 |
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