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Brien Lundin: Gold plummets -- and gold bulls are elated
Thursday, April 24, 2025

By Brien Lundin Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities Metairie, Louisiana Wednesday, April 23, 2025 I've never been so happy to see gold drop $100 in a day. Of course I've never been happy at all to see gold drop like that, before today. In a sign of how weird and volatile these markets are, I c... .. read more..

GATA needs your help, and there's silver in it for you
Thursday, April 24, 2025

6:43p ET Wednesday, April 23, 2025 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: We are so close to victory now. Gold is all over mainstream financial news organizations now even as they strive not to expose the real reasons for the monetary metal's spectacular rise: the collapse of the deriv... .. read more..

Objects in Motion
Thursday, April 24, 2025

This post Objects in Motion appeared first on Daily Reckoning . Bill Bonner reports on America’s outlook from Argentina… The post Objects in Motion appeared first on Daily Reckoning . .. read more..

Marching Toward a Liquidity Cliff
Wednesday, April 23, 2025

In this lengthy yet substantive/timely discussion with Alex Deluce of Gold Telegraph Conversations, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, leads viewers through the fog, confusion and volatility of recent headlines toward a simple lighthouse.  In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, ... .. read more..

A Stagflation Survival Guide
Wednesday, April 23, 2025

This post A Stagflation Survival Guide appeared first on Daily Reckoning . The worst of both worlds approaches… Here’s how to survive and thrive. The post A Stagflation Survival Guide appeared first on Daily Reckoning . .. read more..

Barrick Gold sells Alaska mine stake to John Paulson and NovaGold for up to $...
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

From Reuters Tuesday, April 22, 2025 Canada's Barrick Gold said today it will exit the Donlin gold Project in Alaska by selling its 50% stake to billionaire John Paulson and NovaGold Resources for up to $1.1 billion. The Donlin Gold project is a proposed mine that holds roughly 39 million ounces ... .. read more..

China plans overseas warehouses for Shanghai Gold Exchange to build pricing p...
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

By Amy Lv and Lewis Jackson Reuters Tuesday, April 22, 2025 BEIJING -- China is considering setting up overseas warehouses to aid international settlement of specific products on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, its central bank said Monday. Shanghai Gold Exchange will be supported to conduct cooperat... .. read more..

Ross Beaty-backed Lumina Gold agrees to $581 million acquisition by China's CMOC
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

By Niall McGee The Globe and Mail, Toronto Monday, April 21, 2025 Ross Beaty-backed Lumina Gold Corp. has agreed to be acquired by a subsidiary of China’s CMOC Group Ltd. for $581 million. Vancouver-based Lumina is developing the Cangrejos gold project in Ecuador. In 2023 the company published an... .. read more..

The Final Secret of the Federal Reserve
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

This post The Final Secret of the Federal Reserve appeared first on Daily Reckoning . Mark your calendar for tomorrow, Wednesday, April 23, at 2pm Eastern Time for a live broadcast from Jekyll Island, Georgia, where the U.S. Federal Reserve was conceived. Tune in, at no cost to you. Paradigm Pres... .. read more..

As the dollar falters, central banks tread a tightrope: Devalue their currenc...
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

By Lee Ying Shan CNBC, New York Monday, April 21,  2025 The dollar has been sliding and the ripple effect on other currencies has brought a mix of relief and headache to central banks around the world. Uncertainty about U.S. policymaking has led to a flight out of the U.S. dollar and Treasur... .. read more..

THE BIG SHORT AND THE BIGGER LONG
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

For at least 35 years, the monetary system has been telling us that the current era is coming to an end.  That means a debt collapse, a currency collapse and a collapse of most bubble assets like stocks and property. THUS THE BIG SHORT! As I am writing this on Easter Monday, the Dow is […] ... .. read more..

Explorer Discovers Premium Copper-Gold Deposits in Spain's Iberian Belt
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Emerita Resources Corp. (EMO:TSX.V; EMOTF:OTCQB; LLJA:FSE) announced it is continuing to intersect copper-gold mineralization with associated zinc-lead-silver in its drilling campaign at El Cura deposit in Spain. Find out what catalysts analysts are looking at for the company. .. read more..

Looming Global Financial Crisis as Gold Prices Surge to Historic Highs
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Rick Mills of Ahead of the Herd once again interviews Bob Moriarty of 321Gold to review how current events may impact the markets and discuss two gold companies. .. read more..

Exploration Co. Finds Significant Gold Target in Nevada Mining District
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

StrikePoint Gold Inc. (SKP:TSX.V; STKXF:OTCQB) announced it has filed its first National Instrument 43-101 technical report for its flagship Hercules gold project in Nevada. Read why analysts are interested in this company's exploration this year. .. read more..

Junior Explorer Finds Extensive Copper-Gold Potential in BC
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Prosper Gold Corp. (TSVX: PGX; OTCQB: PGXFF) announced it completed more than 1,600 meters of drilling and 16 line kilometers of induced polarization (IP) surveying last winter at its Cyprus copper-gold project. Read why one analyst recommends buying the stock right now. .. read more..

Last Chance to Buy Gold Co. at this Price Before New Bull Market
Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Technical Analyst Clive Maund explains why he thinks Prosper Gold Corp. (TSVX: PGX; OTCQB: PGXFF) is an Immediate Strong Buy for all time horizons. .. read more..

Death Cross in American Assets
Monday, April 21, 2025

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and one gold stock he thinks is a Buy. .. read more..

Barrick Continues Shift to Copper as Mine Advances
Monday, April 21, 2025

Some gold companies, including royalty companies, reported preliminary results for the first quarter, some with more fulsome detail than others. Most will report full financials next month. .. read more..

Last Chance To Buy This Walker Lane Gold Stock That Is Under Accumulation at ...
Monday, April 21, 2025

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on StrikePoint Gold Inc. (SKP:TSX.V; STKXF:OTCQB), explaining why he believes it is an Immediate Strong Buy. .. read more..

Co. Achieves Goals for Winter Drill Program at Gold Project
Monday, April 21, 2025

Goldshore Resources Inc. (GSHR:TSX.V; GSHRF:OTCQB; 8X00:FWB) is looking to keep expanding the current resource and simultaneously complete a preliminary economic assessment. Read on to learn more about this explorer and its flagship asset. .. read more..

Silver Explorer Unlocks Premium Trading Access with NYSE American Debut
Monday, April 21, 2025

Dolly Varden Silver Corp. (DV:TSX.V; DOLLF:OTCQX) announced that its application to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) American has been approved. See why an analyst views the company as an increasingly attractive target for M&A. .. read more..

Gold derivatives system of price suppression is collapsing, GATA's Steer says
Saturday, April 19, 2025

11a ET Saturday, April 19, 2025 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Interviewed this week by Liberty and Finance's Dunagun Kaiser, GATA board member Ed Steer, proprietor of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver Digest letter, says the sharp rise in gold's price and the frantic movements of gold around the world i... .. read more..

Trump to fast-track permitting for 10 mining projects, more promised
Saturday, April 19, 2025

By Ernest Scheyder Reuters Friday, April 18, 2025 The White House on Friday said it will fast-track permitting for 10 mining projects across the United States as part of President Donald Trump's push to expand critical minerals production. The projects -- which would supply copper, antimony, and ... .. read more..

Trump's reported choice for next Fed chief revealed gold swaps to GATA ...
Saturday, April 19, 2025

... and complained in the Wall Street Journal about policy makers 'suppressing market prices they don't like': https://www.gata.org/node/7819 https://www.gata.org/node/10839 * * * Trump Is Reported Planning to Replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman with Former Fed Governor Kevin W... .. read more..

Adam Sharp: The 'too crowded' gold trade has little public participation
Saturday, April 19, 2025

By Adam Sharp The Daily Reckoning, Baltimore Friday, April 18, 2025 According to the latest survey of fund managers by Bank of America, 49% say gold is the most crowded trade. This marks the first time in two years that the Magnificent 7 tech stocks did not top the "overcrowded" survey. ... Dispa... .. read more..

The “Too Crowded” Gold Trade
Saturday, April 19, 2025

This post The “Too Crowded” Gold Trade appeared first on Daily Reckoning . The shift out of stocks and into gold has only just begun. The post The “Too Crowded” Gold Trade appeared first on Daily Reckoning . .. read more..

Gold Plummets... So Why Are Gold Bulls Happy?
Thursday, April 24, 2025

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TRX Gold Corporation (TRX) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Thursday, April 24, 2025

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TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, April 23
Wednesday, April 23, 2025

With TF 5 Comments | 5 Likes What a volatile and crazy day we've had. After peaking above $3500 about 36 hours ago, Comex gold has fallen over $200. However, Comex silver has rallied and finally today has broken through the $33 level and its 50-day MA. And all of this ahead of tomorrow's Comex op... .. read more..

TFMR Podcast - Monday, April 21
Monday, April 21, 2025

With TF 4 Comments | 2 Likes Oh boy. The gold price has now had $100+ days for two of the past three sessions and four of the last nine. What the heck? Is this TEOTGKE? Probably not yet but, at this point, you never know what tomorrow is going to bring. Nothing is scheduled for tomorrow but what ... .. read more..

Impending Gold Correction Could be Final Buying Window
Saturday, April 19, 2025

Gold has enjoyed one heck of a run.    It has gained almost 60% since March 2024, when it broke out from its 13-year cup and handle pattern. It’s up 85% in the past 18 months.   This is a natural bull market, but bull markets correct and rest occasionally.   Let’s evaluate Go... .. read more..

Until The End Of The World
Thursday, April 17, 2025

By TF 2 Comments | Yes, it may feel as if we need to hold silver until the end of the world before seeing any gains...but that's not why today's morning update uses that title. If you've been around this site for a while, you already know why the title is the title. In the Christian tradition, to... .. read more..

Current Valuations of Gold & Gold Mining Stocks (Lesson 7)
Thursday, April 17, 2025

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Fundamental Drivers for Gold & Silver in the 2020s & 2030s (Lesson 6)
Thursday, April 17, 2025

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TFMR Podcast - Wednesday, April 16
Wednesday, April 16, 2025

With TF 1 Comment | Another incredible day for gold actually began once again in China. This Chinese buying directly correlates to the current 12% gain in CDG over just the past six days. So what happens tomorrow? Maybe we should all watch the Shanghai open at 9:00 pm ET this evening before answe... .. read more..

Remarkable
Wednesday, April 16, 2025

By TF 11 Comments | 5 Likes It's another remarkable day for gold as price breaches the $3300 level for the first time. The rally began last evening, it accelerated in China and then extended in London before, of course, coming to a screeching halt in New York. But, whatever. Let's not worry about... .. read more..

TFMR Podcast - Monday, April 14
Monday, April 14, 2025

With TF 3 Comments | 4 Likes After a $254 rally over the final three days of last week, it appeared that Comex Digital Gold was in need of a breather as price was never able to sustain a bid all day. That was not the case in CDS and the shares, though, and it sets up an interesting day tomorrow. ... .. read more..

Gold and Silver Premium Update : The Crisis of Confidence
Sunday, April 13, 2025

I previously shared this long-term silver chart compared to a long-term Dow/gold ratio chart: .. read more..

Technical Analysis of Gold & Silver (Lesson 5)
Thursday, April 10, 2025

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What Really Drives Silver (Lesson 4)
Wednesday, April 9, 2025

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Recession Set to Drive Capital Flows Into Gold
Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Odds of a recession are increasing and the yield curve is quietly steepening. Any further move from this point forward almost guarantees a recession, which sets the stage for the next wave higher in Gold and precious metals. .. read more..

Gold & Silver Interim Peak as Stock Market Crashes
Sunday, April 6, 2025

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How The Stock Market Signals a Major Silver Rally
Wednesday, March 26, 2025

There has always been an interesting relationship between these peaks and silver rallies. .. read more..

Tracking The Silver Bull Market
Tuesday, March 25, 2025

I previously shared this long-term silver chart compared to a long-term Dow/gold ratio chart: .. read more..

Gold and System Collapse: Charting the Bank Run of the Mighty US Dollar
Wednesday, March 19, 2025

In other words, the market has caught up with the debasement, and demand for gold has increased to counter the effects of the debasement. .. read more..

Premium Blog: Risk Signal Close To Extreme
Monday, January 13, 2025

This is just an update on the gold chart presented on 9 September 2024. .. read more..

Premium Blog: Gold, Silver, and Cryptos are at an Important Juncture
Monday, December 30, 2024

This is just an update on the gold chart presented on 9 September 2024. .. read more..

Premium Blog: Gold Zoomed | Update 20 December 2024
Friday, December 20, 2024

This is just an update on the gold chart presented on 9 September 2024. .. read more..

Premium Blog: Gold Update 19 November 2024
Wednesday, November 20, 2024

This is just an update on the gold chart presented on 9 September 2024. .. read more..

Gold Update: Gold Update 12 November 2024
Tuesday, November 12, 2024

This is just an update on the gold chart presented on 9 September 2024. .. read more..

At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003.
Monday, October 28, 2024

Price will probably soon move back inside the channel just like it did in December 2003 and stay above that blue line for the rest of the bull market. .. read more..

Adam Hamilton: GDX’s Chronic Undervaluation
Sunday, October 1, 2023

Guest Post by Adam Hamilton from his blog at Zeal LLC: The major gold stocks dominating their sector’s flagship GDX ETF have suffered chronic undervaluation over this past year.  Traders simply haven’t been interested, starving gold stocks of the capital inflows necessary to normalize their price... .. read more..

Top Three Videos – October 1, 2023
Sunday, October 1, 2023

Alasdair Macleod: US Dollar Poised For Complete Collapse! Gold Paper Market Crisis Looming...Clarence Thomas Exposing The "Anointed" Liberal Establishment...The Problem With "Classical Liberals"... The post Top Three Videos – October 1, 2023 appeared first on Dollar Collapse . .. read more..

MN Gordon: Where Did Neel Kashkari’s Infinite Cash Go?
Saturday, September 30, 2023

  Guest Post by MN Gordon from his blog, Economic Prism: On April 10, 2020, at the apex of mass coronavirus hysteria, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari appeared on 60 Minutes.  With eyes bugging out of his head, he offered a critical insight. That the Federal Reserve has “infinite cash... .. read more..

Top Three Videos – September 30, 2023
Saturday, September 30, 2023

Where to Escape Klaus Schwab...Matt Piepenburg: It Will Take A 30-40% Market Drawdown Before The Fed Pivots...Does the Government Control the Weather? The post Top Three Videos – September 30, 2023 appeared first on Dollar Collapse . .. read more..

The Perfect Storm Hits Big Banks: Tumbling Deposits, Rising Unrealized Losses...
Friday, September 29, 2023

Guest Post by Pam and Russ Martens at Wall Street on Parade.com: On March 30, 2022, two highly troubling events occurred: (1) Fed data showed that unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities at the 25 largest U.S. banks were approaching the levels they had reached during the financial cris... .. read more..

Top Three Videos – September 29, 2023
Friday, September 29, 2023

John Rubino: Excessive Debt Inevitably Leads To Gigantic Financial Crisis...Michael Rectenwald: The Economic Coercion and ‘Repressive Tolerance’ of the Woke Regime...Chen Lin: Gold Rush 2023!... The post Top Three Videos – September 29, 2023 appeared first on Dollar Collapse . .. read more..

John Rubino: Did Gold Bars Just Become An Impulse Buy?
Thursday, September 28, 2023

  Guest Post by John Rubino from his Substack: One of the tough things about buying gold is the complexity. You have to find a dealer and look up their prices, choose a coin or bar from dozens of options, call in the order, and wire a large amount of money to people you’ve never […] Th... .. read more..

Top Three Videos – September 28, 2023
Thursday, September 28, 2023

Big BREAKOUT IN GOLD coming, Economy on Fumes!...Joseph T. Salerno: Calculation and Socialism...David Morgan: Dollar To Go Into The DUSTBIN Of History The post Top Three Videos – September 28, 2023 appeared first on Dollar Collapse . .. read more..

Charles Hugh Smith: The Psychology of Inflation: What Makes You Say, “No Way ...
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Guest Post by Charles Hugh Smith from his blog, Oftwominds.com: Value varies. Invest in what’s valuable. It’s a well-recognized human bias to feel losses more acutely than gains. Perhaps something similar occurs with inflation. As essentials soar in cost–i.e. non-discretionary e... .. read more..

Top Three Videos – September 27, 2023
Wednesday, September 27, 2023

Peter Zeihan: Chechnya: Russia’s Influence and a Volatile Future...Is The Fed Screwing Us Over as Usual? John Rubino Exposes The Truth...Peter Zeihan: Chechnya: Russia’s Influence and a Volatile Future... The post Top Three Videos – September 27, 2023 appeared first on Dollar Collapse . .. read more..

The Last Post of Silver Doctors – Thank You For Your Support!
Saturday, December 31, 2022

For over ten years, SilverDoctors.com has been serving the community in providing free commentary and analysis of the precious metal markets. When we first launched in January 2011, SD was […] .. read more..

The “Mega-Bubbles” Have Started To Burst, And That Could Mean Unprecedented F...
Saturday, December 31, 2022

The Federal Reserve giveth, and the Federal Reserve taketh away… by Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse Blog The Federal Reserve giveth, and the Federal Reserve taketh away.  In a […] .. read more..

Outrageous Gold Price Prediction for 2023
Saturday, December 31, 2022

Gold is going to soar to at least $3,000? by Arkadiusz Sieron of Sunshine Profits Gold will rocket to $3,000 next year – at least that’s what Saxo Bank says. […] .. read more..

Markets Summary: The Winner Is Gold
Friday, December 30, 2022

It’s been a decent year for big league assets like the Dow, the dollar, and for the greatest asset of all, which of course is… by Stewart Thomson of Graceland […] .. read more..

Worst Recession In Memory And New Highs For Gold In 2023, Silver May See A Su...
Thursday, December 29, 2022

We’re seeing similar patters to the 1970s, and silver… Gareth Soloway on Palisades Gold Radio Gareth discusses why Japan moving rates slightly higher has had an outsized effect. This is […] .. read more..

Buy Gold & Silver With Bitcoins!

Thursday, December 30, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Louis Navellier & Chris Waltzek

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 07:02 PM PST

GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Louis Navellier & Chris Waltzek


Gold/Silver Ratio Reconsidered

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 06:05 PM PST

It is a commonly held belief by many precious metal investors and even a good percentage of market pundits that silver always outperforms gold during the latter stages of a precious metals rally. When the chart action goes parabolic — such as in January 1980 or May 2006 — silver is at its most profitable, or so the thinking goes. The truth, however, is that silver outperforms gold only during orderly and strong price advances that remain trend-bound. Once gold and silver prices achieve the wildfire stage, the blond metal can outshine its albino sibling both on the way up and especially on the way down (by falling less, of course). With incorrect notions in hand about gold and silver price action, both pros and amateurs can make fundamentally-mistaken allocation decisions in their precious metals portfolios that can be painful in the short and long run.


Gold targets 15 players

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 06:00 AM PST

West Ham co-owner David Gold has revealed the club are tracking 15 players in their bid to complete the great escape...


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ADV: Upgrade to weather.com Gold!

Posted: 29 Dec 2010 04:38 PM PST

Get advanced storm tracking maps and weather for 10 cities in one-click, all with no ads! Start your free trial now.


Gold Price Breaks $1400, Hits New Euro & Sterling Highs, as Silver Price Gains Almost 6% in Thin Holiday Trade

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 11:05 PM PST


Front running the Chinese

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 10:05 PM PST

Investing in Gold Ahead of the Chinese Share this:


Gold Bears Predicting The Price Of Gold

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:15 PM PST

Bears are by nature cautious and while caution can be an ally, it can also be fatal where bold action is required. It is understandable that investors who believe in paper money and paper-denominated assets do not understand gold. Gold, after all, is the natural refuge of disbelievers in the current financial paradigm; and, as today’s credit and debt-based paper markets come under increasing pressure and gold moves increasingly higher, most “paper bulls” remain increasingly perplexed.


Investing in Gold Ahead of the Chinese

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:06 PM PST

There are a lot of things in this world that I do not understand, and perhaps it is because of this persistent befuddlement that, for some mysterious reason, I think it is Highly, Highly Significant (HHS) that the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange is planning "a first"; an international gold contract denominated in renminbi.


Timely Silver Love from the WSJ

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:02 PM PST

While it has become a bit of a meme that “the revolution (in currency) will not be televised,” at least one mainstream news outlet is starting to focus some attention on the improving metals market. All across the world, the headlines from the Wall Street Journal read “Price of Silver Soaring,” as two journalists document the explosion in investment interest in the metals markets.


Gold and Silver Lease Rates Jump at Year End

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:00 PM PST

Through the usually flat week between Christmas and New Year's celebrations, at least one (or perhaps a handful) investor is looking to borrow some gold and silver this year.  Overnight, lease rates exploded by more than 500% on both gold and silver.


Aussie Dollar, the Japanese Yen, Euro and Cable all have a different story to tell

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:54 PM PST

First up we look at USD/JPY: The economic data out from Japan was encouraging today as Industrial production as well as retail sales both exceeded the streets guesstimates. This further put a bid on Japanese Yen and prices tumbled to just below 82. This is the region where Bank of Japan first started to tout that it would intervene in the market and as we have said before now that BoJ has made its mark on the market by actually intervening therefore it is high time that it should continue to weaken Yen. We went buyers of the pair at 82 flat and we intend on holding the position.


Crude Oil Inches Higher Shrugging off Consumer Confidence, Gold Spikes Over $1400

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 03:00 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com December 28, 2010 07:51 PM The DOE inventory report will be delayed one day due to the Christmas holiday last week. With New Year now approaching, volume will likely plummet. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Inches Higher Shrugging off Consumer Confidence Crude Oil (WTI) - $91.36 // $0.13 // 0.14% Commentary: Crude reversed Monday’s minor decline to gain $0.49, or 0.54%, on Tuesday, settling at $91.49. Other than a release on U.S. Consumer Confidence, which fell to 52.5 from 54.3 versus the 56.3 that was expected, there was no notable news in the day. As we would expect, financial markets largely shrugged off the consumer confidence figure as it is not a reliable forward-looking indicator. The Department of Energy inventory report that is typically released on Wednesday will be released a day later on Thursday due to the Christmas holiday last week. Similarly, the API survey figures will be released tomorrow, a day later than usual. Remem...


In The News Today

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:30 PM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... December 28, 2010 05:04 PM Dear CIGAs, Credit Suisse is forecasting the gold price of $1630 for 2011. Remember how dumb that sounded seven years ago? I was called every name in the book by the shorts in gold at the $300 and $400 level. The greatest compliment is imitation. It looks like the hoard of experts that were negative or nowhere to be found up to gold at $1000 are complimenting me like mad. The real price Angel is $1764. There is no solid analytical way to get to $1650 so those guys are definitely complimenting me. The Financial Gang is so full of rotten, selfish, amoral chumps. Jim Sinclair’s Commentary Remember when these guys were bearish as hell, holding the world’s largest short of gold OTC derivatives? This is what happens when a company is over populated by attorneys and accountants. "The CEO of Barrick Gold, the world’s biggest gold miner, says his company is expanding digging operations as centra...


Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:30 PM PST

View the original post at jsmineset.com... December 28, 2010 11:20 AM Dear CIGAs, Click chart to enlarge today's hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini ...


2011: China and Other Asian Central Banks Light The Way

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 12:15 PM PST

The most important news for currency and commodity markets in 2010 was, in our view, the June move by China to open its currency to a flexible regime. Over the course of the year, we have discussed the ripple effect this has had on currency markets, especially concerning its implication on the USD/Index. We believe that "flexibility" in China means it is actively reallocating reserves.  By allowing its currency to strengthen and reallocating reserves, China must buy fewer U.S. dollars in the market, while selling currently owned U.S. dollars and purchasing non-U.S. dollar assets. 


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Jim's Mailbox

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 11:52 AM PST

Jim,

Some signs of coming trouble:

-Reliance on stocks in retirement plans is greater than ever in the US; 42 percent of those workers now have 401(k).
-Mortgage debt. Nearly two in three people age 55 to 64 had a mortgage in 2007, with a median debt of $85,000.
-Medical costs. Health care expenses are soaring, and the availability of retiree benefits is declining.

There are many more reasons why the US government cannot choose the austerity exit. QE and hyperinflation looks to be the only way to hide the awful truth.

Best regards,
CIGA Christopher

Baby boomers near 65 with retirements in jeopardy
By DAVE CARPENTER

CHICAGO – Through a combination of procrastination and bad timing, many baby boomers are facing a personal finance disaster just as they're hoping to retire. Starting in January, more than 10,000 baby boomers a day will turn 65, a pattern that will continue for the next 19 years.

The boomers, who in their youth revolutionized everything from music to race relations, are set to redefine retirement. But a generation that made its mark in the tumultuous 1960s now faces a crisis as it hits its own mid-60s.

"The situation is extremely serious because baby boomers have not saved very effectively for retirement and are still retiring too early," says Olivia Mitchell, director of the Boettner Center for Pensions and Retirement Research at the University of Pennsylvania.

There are several reasons to be concerned:

• The traditional pension plan is disappearing. In 1980, some 39 percent of private-sector workers had a pension that guaranteed a steady payout during retirement. Today that number stands closer to 15 percent, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute in Washington, D.C.

More…

 

Jim,

"U.S. notes and bonds have handed investors a 2.1 percent loss in December, paring the annual return to 5.7 percent, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. That's the worst monthly performance among 26 sovereign indexes"

The worst?

CIGA BJS

Treasuries Fall Before $35 Billion Government Auction of Five-Year Notes
By Cordell Eddings and Daniel Kruger – Dec 28, 2010 9:14 AM PT

Treasuries dropped before the U.S. government sells $35 billion of five-year securities in the second of three note auctions this week totaling $99 billion.

U.S. debt maturing in more than a year was headed for the biggest monthly loss in the global government bond market on signs of economic recovery. The 10-year note yield increased the most in almost two weeks as a boost in holiday retail sales overshadowed an unexpected drop in U.S. consumer confidence and a decrease in home prices.

"The last auctions of the year face challenges with everyone on vacation and balance-sheet constraints," said Joseph Leary, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Citigroup Inc., one of the 18 primary dealers obligated to participate in U.S. debt sales. "People are less willing to take risk unless we see more concession."

The yield on the current five-year note increased seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.09 percent at 12:04 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The price of the 1.375 percent security maturing in November 2015 fell 10/32, or $3.13 per $1,000 face amount, to 96 21/32.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

A day ago the US threatened China with a complaint at the WTO if they did not export rare earths liberally.

Note how afraid China is.

China shrinks rare earths export quota
CIGA Eric

What have you learned from China? They use the media to manipulate expectations to hide their true intentions. Gee, sounds like a familiar Western practice. China (unlike the West) is following a specific long-term plan. This makes them a respectable opponent in "the game".

The talking heads that suggested that rare earth metals was not a short to intermediate supply problem for the West did an excellent job in misinforming the weak hands. The newswire is a tool. Those that cannot reason, or let others do their reasoning will be susceptible to the tools of the operators.

China is scaling back its exports next year of rare earth minerals used in high tech products, which could be an unpopular move with countries such as the United States and Japan.

Numbers released Tuesday by the Commerce Ministry show export quotas of the rare minerals will be down 11 percent next year as compared to the same period this year.

Source: forbes.com

More…

 

Herd Capitulation in Natural Gas?
CIGA Eric

Could it be that the specs (hedge funds) and retail funds are being setup by the media tools of the operators? Those that recognize the tools play the game. Those that cannot recognize them also play but not very long.

Connect money continues to increase their net long positions as the headlines provide the intended 'perspective' for the weak hands.

Natural Gas ETF and the Commercial Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
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While retail money remains relative bullish, their recent selling represents what I characterize as herd capitulation. In other words, how can I remain bullish when the experts/pros/talking heads remain so bearish? Any retail capitulation on the long side as connected money quietly repositions only sweetens the pot.

Natural Gas ETF and the Nonreportable Traders COT Futures and Options Stochastic Weighted Average of Net Long As A % of Open Interest:
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If there's a technical trigger on this one, watch out.

Headline: Hedge Funds Bet Gas Will Fall in Warm New Year: Energy Markets

Hedge funds raised bearish natural gas bets by the most since October on forecasts that higher- than-normal temperatures in the first weeks of the New Year will reduce demand for the heating fuel.

The funds and other large speculators cut net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, by 35 percent in the seven days ended Dec. 21, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report. It was the largest drop since Oct. 12.

Source: businessweek.com

More…

 

The Path of Least Resistance Is Complacency
CIGA Eric

You know what is about to hit the FAN.

Municipal bonds may not be worth the paper they are written on.

Jim

Jim,

The public, when presented with options – see headlines below, tends to choose the path of least resistance. That is, the path of complacency. It is much easier assume that the world they know, understand, live, and most importantly denominates the value of their possessions is solid as rock.

Local and State governments are facing deficits so large that few people realize how long it will take balance the economic and social equations. Are municipal bonds in trouble? Don't ask the politicians or experts. The message of the markets is the only opinion that matters.

The suggestion that the iShares Muni Bond to Gold ratio is anything but a plunger's (short side) trend is opinion. Opinions are the kiss of death in this business.

iShares Muni Bond (ETF) to Gold Ratio:
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Regards,
Eric

Headline: Ind. bill would allow cities to declare bankruptcy

INDIANAPOLIS — A plan backed by Gov. Mitch Daniels would allow local governments in Indiana to ask for a state takeover and declare bankruptcy if necessary.

Daniels says he hopes there won't be many local governments that seek bankruptcy, but says the state needs to have the law clarified and on standby in case it happens.

Headline: Despite Default Risk, Select Muni Bonds Strong Buy: Gross

Regardless of the shabby state of government finances in the US, Pimco's Bill Gross says now is the time to be buying municipal bonds.

California and New York City are among the governments Gross, speaking in a CNBC interview, says will treat investors the best.

While he suggests avoiding entities with big budget shortfalls like Illinois, there are a number of other opportunities out there for investors trying to get better yields than the still-low returns that Treasurys provide.

More…

Operation Bond Drive
CIGA Eric

Were the 5-year auction results reflective of poor demand? I've seen 2.61 bid-to-cover ratios spun as bullish. The auction results showed increased and decreased participation from primary dealers and direct bidders, respectively. This is a mildly bullish short term observation. This piece of information was ignored because price action makes better commentary.

5-Year Auction Results
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What the incentive for negative price action? Negative price action provides churn (volume) or cover necessary to setup (control) the market. Operation bond drive represents accumulation by connected money in the bond market as specs and retail becomes increasing emboldened by the media-hyped price break.

Price action is leading the herd into a narrow, controlled pass that hides cliff around the bend.

Connected money is repositioning on the long side in 2-, 5-, 10-year, and long bond. This clustering of money movement, illustrated below, suggest accumulation within an operation of size and possibility of short-term price "teeth".

COT Money Flow Table:
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Headline: Treasurys Sink After Poor 5-Year Auction
Treasury prices sank Tuesday after lukewarm demand on a $35 billion sale in five-year notes.

The bond market extended its losses after the auction, pushing prices to fresh session lows, as the result raised concern about the outlook for Wednesday's scheduled sale of seven-year notes.

Higher yields failed to lure enough buyers to underwrite the auction, a sharp contrast to the two-year notes sale Monday.

online.wsj.com

More…


Behind the Retail Cheer

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 09:01 AM PST

The 5 min. Forecast December 28, 2010 01:22 PM by Addison Wiggin - December 28, 2010 [LIST] [*]Retailers celebrate holiday blowout... Why consumers will play Scrooge come 2011, and how to profit [*]Next stage of the rare earth squeeze... How latest announcement from Beijing has manufacturers scrambling, shareholders profiting [*]One less bearish factor for gold... as the metal tops $1,400 again [*]World's toughest co-op board... Offer in "the high teens" may not be good enough for Brooke Astor duplex [*]"If You Don't Want to Lose Your Freaking Money People!" and other pithy suggestions for the name of our newest project [/LIST] We received the following description of economic activity, on yellowed paper, framed, as a gift this Christmas: Rags make paper Paper makes money Money makes banks Banks make loans Loans make poverty Poverty makes rags Fitting, eh? With such wisdom in mind, we delve into the holiday retail numbers that have much of the fin...


Breadth/Fed Stimulus Encouraging to Bulls

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 05:36 AM PST

The disappointing housing news of December 28, 2010 gives the Fed more cover to complete the full allotment of QE2 bond purchases, which in turn should help boost weak dollar assets like gold, silver, and copper. Read More...



Gold and Uranium, Rules Of The Range

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 04:14 AM PST

Gold is $1404! While you are not absolutely richer today than you were yesterday, you are relatively richer, and I have a suspicion that is AOK with you today! Read More...



Three Things that Could Halt Gold’s Run

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:45 AM PST

Normally we write about the things and conditions that cause precious metals to rise. While these things may be obvious, the corresponding rise in the bull market will not always be consistent and linear. Small and large corrections will occur along the way. Some will be purely technical while some have real drivers. There are three things that can precede a deep correction or consolidation in the precious metals complex.


3 Things That Could Halt Gold's Run

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:35 AM PST

Wall Street Cheat Sheet submits:

By Jordan Roy-Byrne

Normally we write about the things and conditions that cause precious metals to rise. While these things may be obvious, the corresponding rise in the bull market will not always be consistent and linear. Small and large corrections will occur along the way. Some will be purely technical while some have real drivers. There are three things which can precede a deep correction or consolidation in the precious metals complex.


Complete Story »


A New Lawsuit Against JPM and HSBC for Silver Manipulation With An Interesting ETF Twist

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:22 AM PST


The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4)

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 01:15 AM PST

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world's reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

FROM "DARTH" TO "CZAR" VOLCKER? VOL 1/1

Imagine that, as in 1979, Paul Volcker is tasked with restoring global confidence in the US dollar and economy generally. We believe that, notwithstanding the best of intentions, it is unrealistic to expect that Mr Volcker, or anyone else for that matter, could possibly succeed at preventing a dramatic relative economic decline of the US in the coming years. To do so would require fundamental economic reform vast scope, far beyond what anyone in Washington, DC is willing to seriously consider or debate.

Our thinking on this topic has not changed one bit. If anything, our conclusions seem largely vindicated by recent developments in Washington, including the growing lack of fiscal discipline demonstrated by the extension of tax cuts and unemployment benefits. There is no serious talk of fundamental economic reform, even following the elections, in which deficit reduction was an important topic. Meanwhile, the Fed has embarked on an increasingly radical monetary course which does nothing to restore confidence in the dollar. The outperformance this year of emerging market economies, many of which are investing heavily in infrastructure and other capital stock, is a clear demonstration of relative US decline. We would expect this outperformance to continue in 2011 although it might well be less pronounced.

IS MONEY A STORE OF VALUE? VOL 1/2

We generally take it for granted that cash in a government-guaranteed bank deposit account is a risk-free store of value. But is it? The fact is that the dollar, and all fiat currencies for that matter, tend to lose purchasing power over time, occasionally abruptly in a sharp decline or, even worse, in a hyperinflation. Given current global economic conditions, we believe that investors should be particularly wary of currencies as stores of value and should seek ways to preserve wealth outside of cash.

It is not surprising that, as policymakers have resorted to ever more desperate means to get their economies going, currencies in general have declined in value relative to commodities this year, including the historical cash substitutes, the precious metals. We are confident that this trend of rising commodities prices, not just in dollars but in most currencies, is going to continue in 2011, although quite possibly at a slower pace than in recent months, in the event that the global economy slows somewhat, as we expect.

HOW MUCH FREE LUNCH WOULD YOU LIKE, SIR? VOL 1/2

As diversification is rightly considered to be the only "free-lunch" in economics, in this topic we explore how, in a world of both low interest rates and high uncertainty, investors should be inclined to seek rather more diversification than would ordinarily be the case. However, as financial assets are increasingly highly correlated with each other–a consequence of artificial monetary stimulus–diversification through financial assets alone is unusually limited. As such, investors should consider increasing their allocations to alternative investments, including liquid commodities.

Commodities have outperformed this year, most probably for a variety of reasons. There were some supply issues at times, in particular with grains and certain other agricultural commodities, but the strength was in fact quite broad-based and demonstrates both good demand from the more dynamic emerging markets but also, importantly, that global inflationary pressures are rising. While 2011 may not be as good a year for commodities as 2010–in part because there are signs that emerging market demand is now cooling–we nevertheless expect investors to continue to seek diversification in alternative assets.

THE REAL LESSON OF THE GREEK DEBT CRISIS | VOL 1/2

Greece now finds itself under attack from the financial markets and unable to refinance its debt. We believe that Germany and France will not come to Greece's rescue absent a dramatic fiscal consolidation. While Greece is certainly trying to reduce its deficit, success is far from assured and some sort of debt restructuring is probably inevitable. In any case, the Greek crisis has kicked off a round of general euro-area fiscal consolidation. This demonstrates that the euro-area can respond positively to market pressures. In time, this could be supportive of the euro.

The sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece earlier this year has spread to Ireland, Portugal and Spain. In all four countries, governments are desperately trying to reduce deficits in return for financial assistance from France and Germany and also temporary funding support from the European Central Bank (ECB). Interestingly, however, notwithstanding the ongoing and widening crisis, the EUR/USD exchange rate, at 1.32 today, is essentially at the same level it was when the crisis broke in April this year. While we are not particularly optimistic for the economic future of the euro-area which, absent Germany and a few other pockets of regional strength, does not have a great deal going for it, we nevertheless think it is important to make a fair comparison between the euro-area and the US. This requires investors to look at the overall US fiscal situation, which continues to deteriorate amidst federal tax cut and unemployment benefit extensions. But don't forget the brewing debt crisis in state and local governments either. California, New York and Illinois are all at risk and collectively are of comparable economic size to the entire euro-area periphery. Indeed, the US economy in aggregate, when evaluated according to the size of the public sector, the overall tax base and fiscal and current account balances, bears a far greater similarity to the euro-area periphery than to the core.

FINANCIAL CRISES AND NEWTON'S THIRD LAW | VOL 1/3

Policymakers tend to react to financial crises in ways that contribute to an even greater crisis down the road. Indeed, the reactions of policymakers and regulators are consistently disproportionate to the actions of financial markets. In sinister dialectical fashion, the powers assumed and mistakes made by policymakers tend to grow with each crisis, thereby ensuring that future crises become progressively more severe.

If you are stuck in a hole, so the old saw goes, you had better first stop digging. Well try telling that to the US government, which has just decided to accelerate the ongoing deterioration in its finances with a broad tax cut extension as well as extended unemployment benefits. Meanwhile, the Fed has embarked on another round of monetary expansion. This is yet another example of policymakers contributing to an even greater crisis down the road. Rather than get out of the way and let the economy restructure and rebuild in a natural, undistorted fashion by allowing asset prices to adjust lower to more sustainable levels and banks and corporations to be sensibly downsized and, where necessary, restructured, policymakers continue to dig an ever deeper hole, the legacy of multiple asset bubbles and busts.

WHY FINANCIAL GENIUS FAILS | VOL 1/3

Believe it or not, well prior to the great financial crisis of 2008, it was widely known among the educated financial elite that the standard risk management models and methods used by the major banks were woefully inadequate, with the consequence of systematically underestimating risk. But rather than take appropriate action to protect their firms with sensible risk management policies, senior executives chose instead to focus on short-term profitability: A healthy balance sheet became of secondary importance to a healthy income statement which, of course, justified healthy bonuses.

Much has been written this year about how the risk management culture on Wall Street was a key ingredient to the crisis of 2008. It is increasingly clear that most if not all financial executives were aware of the risks they were taking but were unwilling to confront the short-term, bonus-driven culture which had come to dominate a once conservative, partnership-based industry. Now that the industry has been bailed out and has returned to profitability–at least for a brief time–another important lesson has been learned: The more risks you take, the better, as policymakers will see to it that in the event of yet another crisis, the taxpayer comes to the rescue. Events this year have done nothing in our opinion to change this. Those firms already too big to fail in 2008 are now even bigger. The moral hazard of the system has grown. The seeds of the next crisis have been sown. Recent developments in Ireland should serve as an example of what happens to a country that underwrites the risks of its financial sector.

IS CHINA BEING TAKEN FOR A RIDE? VOL 1/4

Back in the spring we noticed that inflation rates were picking up just about everywhere, including in China. However, as China is a huge importer of raw materials, rising global commodities prices implied that Chinese inflation was likely to increase further. As much of China is still a subsistence economy, food price inflation would most likely turn into wage inflation, which in turn would push up prices for Chinese manufactured goods generally and possibly lead China to revalue its currency versus the dollar. Eventually, as the US imports a huge amount from China, this would also push up prices in the US.

Chinese inflation has continued to rise all year. The spike in food prices over the summer has played a part, to be sure, but the underlying pressures were already in place. Additional fiscal and monetary stimulus in the US is most probably going to contribute to still more inflationary pressure in China and other more dynamic economies around the world. Indeed, China is just one of many countries which is now taking action to cool growth and keep prices under control. China and India have both recently raised interest rates. Brazil and South Korea are taxing foreign capital flows. These trends are likely to continue in 2011 and will contribute to "stagflationary" conditions in the US.

To be continued…

Regards,

John Butler,
for The Daily Reckoning

[Editor's Note: The above essay is excerpted from The Amphora Report, which is dedicated to providing the defensive investor with practical ideas for protecting wealth and maintaining liquidity in a world in which currencies are no longer reliable stores of value.]

The Amphora Report's 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4) originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."


Tuesday Morning Links

Posted: 28 Dec 2010 12:49 AM PST

MUST READS
Opposition to the Euro Grows in Germany – Spiegel
Ex-Shell president sees $5 gas in 2012 – CNN/Money
As Ireland Flails, Europe Lurches Across the Rubicon – WSJ
Number Of Uninsured Americans Soars To Over 50 Million – HuffPost
China relaxes rules for currency forwards – Reuters
Japan's deflation persists, but rising output provides hope – AFP
China cuts 2011 rare earths quota by 11.4% – Commodity Online
Good News for the Economy: Less Debt, More Spending – Fiscal Times
Partying Like It's 1923: Or, The Weimar Temptation – Krugman, NY Times
Fixing the economy the scientific way – LA Times

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil Back Above $91 As Dollar Weakens – RTT News
Gold up on dollar weakness, Asian buying – Reuters
Bull vs. Bear: How high will oil go in 2011? – Fortune
Twleve tips for profiting on commodity demand – MarketWatch
Baby boomers near 65 with retirements in jeopardy – AP
U.S. gas price tops $3 a gallon, highest since Oct '08 – Reuters
Bears are scarce – that makes some bulls nervous – LA Times
Doug Kass: 'I Am Moving To Net Short Position' – CNBC

ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
Retail Sales Rebound, Beating Forecasts – NY Times
Minimum wage set to rise in seven states – MarketWatch
Analysis: Consumer spending back to normal? Not so fast – Reuters
China reportedly trimming budget deficit for 2011 – MarketWatch
The UK inflation genie is out of the bottle – Telegraph
Real Estate Spin Continues by Mainstream Media – USA Watchdog
Temperature Change: Bristol Palin Buys Arizona Home – WSJ
At housing court, final pleas to head off evictions – Boston.com
Out of Lehman's Ashes Wall St. Gets What It Wants – BusinessWeek
Non-US Banks Gained from Fed Crisis Fund – FT


2011 - What's Coming

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 11:44 PM PST

Oh boy is 2011 going to be an exciting year! Some things that I think might happen: volatility is going up across the board, gold will be higher a year from now, copper will continue to rise, Spain will be the next sovereign debtor that falls prey...


All Bullish on the Silver Front

Posted: 27 Dec 2010 11:00 PM PST

Small but very telling structural changes continues in this week's Commitment of Traders report, once again highlighted by another drop in adjusted Net open interest. Another telling line item, is the net short position of the 4 largest commercial...


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