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Monday, November 29, 2010

Gold World News Flash

Gold World News Flash


Crude Oil Will Look Toward U.S. Payrolls for Guidance, Gold May Continue to Take Cues

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 04:13 PM PST

courtesy of DailyFX.com November 28, 2010 09:51 PM Though Europe sovereign debt worries still linger, there will be a number of releases this week that may shake things up a bit. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Will Look Toward U.S. Payrolls for Guidance Crude Oil (WTI) - $85.35 // $0.59 // 0.70% Commentary: Crude oil will look to build upon gains established in last week’s holiday-shortened week. Recall that prices added about $2 after successfully testing $80 support four times. Though European sovereign debt concerns still linger, traders are beginning to focus on the recovery in the United States, and that should remain a bullish driver for oil prices. The big data point in the new week will be Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report which is expected to show a 145K increase for the month of November after having risen 151K in October. Private payrolls may show a similar 155K increase after advancing 159K in October. While this rate of gro...


The Stench of US Economic Decay Grows Stronger: Paul Craig Roberts

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:48 PM PST

Meanwhile in America the sheeple remain content with, or blind to, their role as sheep to be slaughtered to feed the rich. The Obama administration has managed to come up with a Deficit Commission whose members want to pay for the multi-trillion dollar wars that are enriching the military/security complex and the multi-trillion dollar bailouts of the financial system by reducing annual cost-of-living increases for Social Security, raising the retirement age to 69, ending the mortgage interest deduction, ending the tax deduction for employer-provided health insurance, imposing a 6.5% federal sales tax, while cutting the top tax rate for the rich.


Guest Post: Lies Across America

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:47 PM PST


Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform

Lies Across America

“Every single empire, in its official discourse, has said that it is not like all the others, that its circumstances are special, that it has a mission to enlighten, civilize, bring order and democracy, and that it has a mission to enlighten, civilize, bring order and democracy, and that it uses force only as a last resort.”Edward Said

The increasingly fragile American Empire has been built on a foundation of lies. Lies we tell ourselves and Big lies spread by our government. The shit is so deep you can stir it with a stick. As we enter another holiday season the mainstream corporate mass media will relegate you to the status of consumer. This is a disgusting term that dehumanizes all Americans. You are nothing but a blot to corporations and advertisers selling you electronic doohickeys that they convince you that you must have. Propaganda about consumer spending being essential to an economic recovery is spewed from 52 inch HDTVs across the land, 24 hours per day, by CNBC, Fox, CBS and the other corporate owned media that generate billions in profits from selling advertising to corporations schilling material goods to thoughtless American consumers.  Aldous Huxley had it figured out decades ago:

“Thanks to compulsory education and the rotary press, the propagandist has been able, for many years past, to convey his messages to virtually every adult in every civilized country.”

Americans were given the mental capacity to critically think. Sadly, a vast swath of Americans has chosen ignorance over knowledge. Make no mistake about it, ignorance is a choice. It doesn’t matter whether you are poor or rich. Books are available to everyone in this country. Sob stories about the disadvantaged poor having no access to education are nothing but liberal spin to keep the masses controlled. There are 122,500 libraries in this country. If you want to read a book, you can read a book. The internet puts knowledge at the fingertips of every citizen. Becoming educated requires hard work, sacrifice, curiosity, and a desire to learn. Aldous Huxley  describes the American choice to be ignorant:

 “Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.”

It is a choice to play Call of Duty on your PS3 rather than reading Shakespeare. It is a choice to stand on a street corner looking for trouble rather than reading Hemingway. It is a choice to spend Black Friday in malls fighting other robotic consumers for iSomethings, the latest innovative, advanced TVs, flashy Rolexes, and ostentatious Coach bags rather than spending the day reading Guns of August by Barbara Tuchman, a brilliant Pulitzer Prize winning history of the outset of World War I, which would provide insight into what could happen on the Korean Peninsula. It is a choice to watch 6 hours per day of Dancing With the Stars, American Idol, Brainless Housewives of Everywhere, or CSI of Anywhere rather than reading Orwell or Huxley  and discovering that their dystopian warnings have come true.

 Conspicuous Consumption Conquistadors

Americans have chosen to lie to themselves. They have persuaded themselves that buying stuff with plastic cards while paying 19% interest for eternity, driving BMWs while locked into never ending indecipherable lease schemes, and living in permanently underwater McMansions bought with 0% down on an interest only liar loan, is the new American Dream. They think watching the boob tube will make them smart. They soak in the mass media hype, misinformation and lies like lemmings walking off a cliff. Depending on their political predisposition, they watch Fox or MSNBC and unthinkingly believe the propaganda that pours from the mouths of the multi-millionaire talking heads who read Teleprompters with words written by corporate media hacks. They tell themselves that buying stuff on credit, giving them the appearance of success as measured by the media elite, is actually success. This is a bastardized, manipulated, delusional version of accomplishment. Americans have chosen to believe the lies because the truth is too hard to accept.

Becoming educated, thinking critically, working hard, saving money to buy what you need (as opposed to what you want), developing human relationships, and questioning the motivations of government, corporate and religious leaders is hard. It is easy to coast through school and never read a book for the rest of your life. It is easy to not think about the future, your retirement, or the future of unborn generations. It is easy to coast through life at a job (until you lose it) that is unchallenging, with no desire or motivation for advancement. It is easy to make your everyday troubles disappear by whipping out your piece of plastic and acquiring everything you desire today. If your brother-in-law buys a 7,000 sq ft, 7 bedroom, 4 bath, 3 car garage, monolith to decadence for his family of 3, thirty miles from civilization, with no money down and a no doc Option ARM providing the funds, why shouldn’t you get in on the fun. It’s easy. Why sit around the kitchen table and talk with your kids, when you can easily cruise the internet downloading free porn or recording every trivial detail of your shallow life on Facebook so others can waste their time reading about your life. It is easiest to believe your elected leaders, glorified mega-corporation CEOs, and millionaire pastors preaching the word of God for a “small” contribution to their mega-churches.

Americans love authority figures who act as if they have all the answers. It matters not that these egotistical monuments to folly and hubris (Bush, Obama, Paulson, Geithner, Greenspan, Bernanke) have committed the worst atrocities in the history of our Republic, leaving economic carnage and the slaughter of thousands in their wake. The most dangerous man on this earth is an Ivy League educated, arrogant ideologue who believes they are smarter than everyone else. When these men achieve power, they are capable of producing catastrophic consequences. Once they seize the reigns of authority these amoral psychopaths have no problem lying to the American public in order to achieve their objectives. They know that Americans love to be lied to, so the bigger the lie, the more likely it is to be believed.

The current lie proliferating across the land of the free financing and home of the debtor is that austerity has broken out across the land. The mainstream media and the government, aided by various “think tanks” and Federal Reserve propagandists insist that Americans have buckled down, reduced spending, increased savings, and have embraced austerity.

Austerity – Circa 1932

 

Austerity – Circa 2010

 

They now proclaim that it is time to spend again. It is the patriotic thing to do, just like defeating terrorists by buying an SUV with 0% down from GM was the patriotic thing to do after 9/11. Defeating terrorists by going further into debt was the brilliant idea of those Ivy League geniuses Bush & Greenspan. Let’s critically examine the facts to determine how austere Americans have become:

  • Consumer credit outstanding is $2.41 trillion, the same level reached in early 2007, and up from $1.5 trillion in 2000. This is a 60% increase in ten years. Personal income has risen from $8.4 trillion to $12.6 trillion over this same time frame, a 50% increase. Americans have substituted debt for income in order to keep up with the Joneses. The mass delusion lives.  
  • The MSM declares that the reduction in overall consumer debt from its peak of $2.56 trillion in 2008 to $2.41 trillion today proves that consumers have been cutting back and paying off debt. This is another media lie. Non-revolving debt, which includes car loans, education loans, mobile home loans and boat loans sits at $1.6 trillion, an all-time high matched in 2008. Credit card debt has “plunged” from $957 billion to $814 billion, not because consumers paid down their balances. The mega Wall Street banks have written off $20 billion per quarter since early 2009, accounting for ALL of the reduction in credit card debt. Clueless consumers continue to charge at the same rate as the peak in 2008.
  • Average credit card debt per household with credit card debt: $15,788
  • There are 609.8 million bank credit cards held by U.S. consumers.
  • The U.S. credit card default rate is 13.01%
  • In 2006, the United States Census Bureau determined that there were nearly 1.5 billion credit cards in use in the U.S. A stack of all those credit cards would reach more than 70 miles into space – and be almost as tall as 13 Mount Everests.
  • Penalty fees from credit cards added up to about $20.5 billion in 2009.
  • The national average default rate as January 2010 stood at 27.88% and the mean default rate is 28.99%.
  • Total bankruptcy filings in 2009 reached 1.4 million, up from 1.09 million in 2008. Bankruptcies in 2010 are on pace to exceed 1.6 million.  
  • 26% of Americans, or more than 58 million adults, admit to not paying all of their bills on time. Among African-Americans, this number is at 51%. 

           Does This Look Like Austerity? Really?

 

This data clearly proves that austerity has not broken out across the land of delusion. The billions in consumer loan write-offs by the Wall Street banks that run this country have masked the fact that Americans have not cut back on their spending habits at all. GMAC (taxpayer owned) and Ford Credit continue to dish out car loans to anyone with a pulse and a 600 credit score. The Federal Reserve and the FASB have encouraged, if not insisted, that banks fraudulently value the commercial real estate loans on their books. The Federal Reserve has bought $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgage loans from the criminal Wall Street banks at 100 cents on the dollar. The government’s corporate fascist public relations firms then spread the big lie that the economy is recovering and consumers should join the party and spend, spend, spend.

If Americans were capable or willing to do some critical thinking, they would realize that those in power have created the illusion of a recovery by handing $700 billion of your money to the banks that created the financial meltdown, spending $800 billion on worthless pork barrel projects borrowed from future generations, dropping interest rates to 0% so that the mega-Wall Street banks can earn billions risk free while your grandmother who depended on interest income from her CDs edges closer to eating cat food to get by, and lastly Ben Bernanke’s blatant attempt to enrich Wall Street by buying US Treasury bonds in an effort to make the stock market go up, while the middle and lower classes are crushed under the weight of soaring fuel and food price increases that exceed 30% on an annual basis. The illusion of recovery is not a recovery. With a true unemployment rate of 22%, a true inflation rate of 8% and a real GDP of -1.5% (Shadowstats), we are in the midst of the Greater Depression. You are being lied to, but most of you prefer it.   

The Little Lies We Tell Ourselves

“Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” – M King Hubbert

When Jimmy Carter gave his malaise speech in 1979, Americans were in no mood to listen. Carter’s solutions were too painful, required sacrifice, and sought to benefit future generations. The leading edge of the Baby Boom generation had reached their 30s by 1979, and the most spoiled, pampered, egocentric generation in history could care less about future generations, long term thinking, or sacrifice for the greater good. They were the ME GENERATION. The 1970s had proven to be tumultuous episode in US history. M King Hubbert’s calculation in 1956 that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s proved to be 100% correct.

File:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png

The Arab oil embargo resulted in gas shortages and economic chaos in the U.S. Hubbert used the same method to determine that worldwide oil production would peak in the early 2000s. If long term planning had been initiated in the early 1980s, combining exploration of untapped reserves, greater utilization of natural gas, development of nuclear plants, more stringent fuel efficiency standards, increased taxes on gasoline, and more thoughtful development of housing communities, we would not now face a looming oil crisis within the next few years. Instead of dealing with reality, adapting our behavior and preparing for a more localized society, we put our blinders on, chose ignorance over reason and pushed the pedal to the medal by moving farther away from our jobs, building bigger energy intensive mansions, and insisting on driving tank-like SUVs, Hummers, and good ole boy pickups. Kevin Phillips in American Theocracy explained that hyper-consumerism, fear, and inability to use logic have left our suburban oasis lives in danger of implosion when the reality of peak cheap oil strikes:  

 Besides the innate thirst of SUVs, some of the last quarter century’s surge in U.S. oil consumption has come from Americans driving more – some twelve thousand miles per motorist per year, up almost one – third from 1980 – because they as a whole live farther from work. In consumption terms, exurbia is the physical result of the latest population redistribution enabled by car culture and the electorate that upholds it.

Family values are central – if by this we mean having families and accepting lengthy commutes to install them in reasonably safe and well churched places. In the 1970’s such households might have been fleeing school busing or central city crime; in the post – September 11 era, many sought distance from “godless” school systems or the random violence and terrorist attacks expected to occur in metropolitan areas.

We willingly believe the lies espoused by the badly informed pundits on CNBC and Fox   that if we just drill in Alaska and off our coasts, we’ll be fine. The ignorant peak cheap oil deniers insist there are billions of barrels of oil to be harvested from the Bakken Shale, even though there is absolutely no method of accessing this supply without expending more energy than we can access. Environmentalists lie about the dangers of nuclear power, while shamelessly promoting the ridiculous notion that solar, wind and ethanol can make a visible impact on our future energy needs. Ideologues on the right and left conveniently ignore the facts and the truth is lost in a blizzard of their lies. Here is an explanation so clear, even a CNBC “drill baby drill” dimwit could understand:

When oil production first began in the mid-nineteenth century, the largest oil fields recovered fifty barrels of oil for every barrel used in the extraction, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROEI). Currently, between one and five barrels of oil are recovered for each barrel-equivalent of energy used in the recovery process. As the EROEI drops to one, or equivalently the Net Energy Gain falls to zero, the oil production is no longer a net energy source. This happens long before the resource is physically exhausted.

File:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg

After the briefest of lulls when oil reached $145 per barrel, Americans have resumed buying SUVs, pickup trucks, and gas guzzling muscle cars. They have chosen to ignore the imminence of peak cheap oil because driving a leased BMW makes your neighbors think you are a success, while driving a hybrid would make your neighbors think you are a liberal tree hugger. It boggles my mind that so many Americans are so shallow and shortsighted. According to Automotive News, at the start of 2008 leasing comprised 31.2% of luxury vehicle sales and 18.7% of non-luxury sales. This proves that hundreds of thousands of wannabes are driving leased BMWs and Mercedes to fill some void in their superficial lives.

I bought a Honda Insight Hybrid six months ago. It gets 44 mpg and will save me $1,500 per year in gasoline costs. I put 20% down and financed the remainder at 0.9% for three years. My payment is $450 per month. I will own it outright in 2 ½ years. I could have leased a 2010 BMW 328i with moonroof, bluetooth, power seats with driver seat memory, lumbar support, leather interior, iPod adapter, 17″ alloy wheels, heated seats, wood trim, 3.0 Liter 6 Cylinder engine with 230 horsepower for 3 years at $389 per month. At the end of 3 years I’d own nothing. In 2 ½ years I’ll be able to put $450 per month away for my kids’ college education and I’ll be saving more on fuel as gasoline approaches $5 per gallon. The self important egotistical BMW leaser pretending to be successful will need to hand over their sweet ride and move on to the next lease, never saving a dime for the future. I’m sure they’ll make a killing in the market or their McMansion will surely double in price, providing a fantastic retirement.  

             Delusional                                   Practical

   

The delusion that cheap oil is a God given right of all Americans can be seen in the YTD data on vehicle sales. Pickups and SUVs account for 48.5% of all sales, while small fuel efficient cars account for only 16.5% of all sales. Americans will continue to lie to themselves until it is too late, again.

Americans are so committed to their automobiles, hyper-consumerism, oversized McMansions, and suburban sprawl existence that they will never willingly prepare in advance for a future by scaling back, downsizing, or thinking. Our culture is built upon consumption, debt, cheap oil and illusion. Kevin Phillips in American Theocracy concludes that there are so many Americans tied to our unsustainable economic model that they will choose to lie to themselves and be lied to by their leaders rather than think and adapt:  

A large number of voters work in or depend on the energy and automobile industries, and still more are invested in them, not just financially but emotionally and culturally. These secondary cadres included racing fans, hobbyists, collectors, and dedicated readers of automotive magazines, as well as the tens of millions of automobile commuters from suburbs and distant exurbs, plus the high number of drivers whose strong self-identification with vehicle types and models serve as thinly disguised political statements. In the United States more than elsewhere, a preference for conspicuous consumption over energy efficiency and conservation is a signal of a much deeper, central divide.

M King Hubbert was a geophysicist and a practical man. He observed data, made realistic assumptions, and came to logical conclusions. He didn’t deal in unrealistic hope and unwarranted optimism. He knew that our culture had become so dependent upon lies and an unsustainable growth model based on depleting oil and debt based “prosperity”. He knew decades ago that we were incapable of dealing with the truth:

“Our principal constraints are cultural. During the last two centuries we have


Euro Sells Off Following Comments By Banque De France Governor Noyer

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:27 PM PST


...But did traders pick the wrong currency to sell? Tonight's prompt sell off in the Euro is now being attributed to comments by Banque de France Governor Christian Noyer who said monetary easing creates the potential for global imbalances. While it is true that Noyer stated that The European Central Bank will keep its emergency measures as long as needed, this is not news. Obviously all of Europe is now reliant solely on the ECB's bidding of last resort for each and every failed bond auction and to prevent bond routs in the secondary market. Again: this is not news. Yet what is interesting is that instead of selling off the EUR, traders may have picked the wrong currency. To wit: Noyer was actually blasting the pegged CNY, which means that the CNY-derivative currencies, the AUD and the NZD should have taken the brunt of tonight's action, and in the wrong direction at that. And, ultimately, the target was the USD. The moment this became clear (9pm Eastern) is when gold took off.

Confirmatory headlines:

*NOYER: MORE FLEXIBLE YUAN WILL HELP IT PLAY BIGGER WORLD ROLE
*NOYER SAYS YUAN ISSUE WON'T BE RESOLVED RIGHT AWAY
*NOYER SAYS CURRENCY, COMMODITY, CAPITAL-FLOW VOLATILITY RISING
*NOYER SAYS NATIONS CHALLENGING EACH OTHERS' POLICY NOT GOOD
*NOYER URGES DE-LINKING RESERVES GROWTH, EXCHANGE-RATE POLICY
*NOYER URGES EFFORT TO ADDRESS GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOW VOLATITILITY
*NOYER SAYS MONETARY EASING CREATES POTENTIAL FOR IMBALANCES
*NOYER SEES DOUBT ON CONSISTENCY OF MAJOR ECONOMIES' STRATEGIES
*NOYER: SOME VOLATILITY MAY BE INDUCED BY OFFICIALS' POLICIES

In other words, Noyer indirectly attempted to push the EURUSD. And failed... Was that the extent of Europe's intervention for the evening?


China, Russia, Iran Dumping Dollar For Gold

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:23 PM PST

The Fed's promises are not worth the paper they are written on. Ben Bernanke will print money until he cannot anymore and we have hyperinflation. That is because he has no other choice. He has no way out and he knows it won't work. Tragically, this is where we are headed and there is no way to stop what the elitists have put deliberately in motion. As long as quantitative easing is official Fed and Wall Street policy, gold is going to continue to rise with silver, and the stronger the case is that gold is the real world reserve currency. That means all currencies will eventually have to be backed by gold. We believe that elitists have accepted this fact and that was borne out recently by World Bank President, CFR, Trilateralist and Bilderberger Robert Zoellick. We can assure you that was no slip of the tongue. That was a cleverly planted trial balloon to get public reaction.


Play China’s Yuan From the Long Side

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 01:46 PM PST


Any doubts that China’s Yuan is a huge screaming buy should have been dispelled when news came out that it had displaced Germany as the world’s largest exporter.

The Middle Kingdom shipped $1.2 trillion in goods in 2009, compared to only $1.1 trillion for The Fatherland. The US has not held the top spot since 2003. China’s surging exports of electrical machinery, power generation equipment, clothes, and steel were a major contributor. German exports were mired down by lackluster economic recovery in the EC, which has also been a major factor behind the weak euro. Sales of luxury Mercedes and BMW cars, machinery, and chemicals have plummeted.

Four back to back interest rate rises for the Yuan, and a constant snugging of bank reserve requirements by the People’s Bank of China, have stiffened the backbone of the Middle Kingdom’s currency even further. That is the price of allowing the Federal Reserve to set China’s monetary policy via a fixed Yuan exchange rate. Is certain that Obama’s stimulus program is reviving China’s economy more than our own.

The last really big currency realignment was a series of devaluations that took the Yuan down from a high of 1.50 to the dollar in 1980. By the mid nineties it had depreciated by 84%. The goal was to make exports more competitive. The Chinese succeeded beyond their wildest dreams.


There is absolutely no way that the fixed rate regime can continue, and there are only two possible outcomes. An artificially low Yuan has to eventually cause the country’s inflation rate to explode. Or a global economic recovery causes Chinese exports to balloon to politically intolerable levels. Either case forces a revaluation.

Of course timing is everything. It’s tough to know how many sticks it takes to break a camel’s back. Talk to senior officials at the People’s Bank of China, and they’ll tell you they still need a weak currency to develop their impoverished economy. Per capita income is still at only $3,000, less than a tenth of that of the US. But that is up a lot from a mere $100 in 1978.

Talk to senior US Treasury officials, and they’ll tell you they are amazed that the Chinese peg has lasted this long. How many exports will it take to break it? $1.5 trillion, $2 trillion, $2.5 trillion? It’s anyone’s guess.

One thing is certain. A free floating Yuan would be at least 50% higher than it is today, and possibly 100%. In fact, the desire to prevent foreign hedge funds from making a killing in the market is a not a small element in Beijing’s thinking.

The Chinese Central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, says he won’t entertain a revaluation for the foreseeable future. The Americans say they need it tomorrow. To me that means about six months. Buy the Yuan ETF, the (CYB). Just think of it as an ETF with an attached lottery ticket. If the Chinese continue to stonewall, you will get the token 3%-5% annual revaluation they are thought to tolerate. Double that with margin, and your yield rises to 6%-10%, not bad in this low yielding world. Since the chance of the Chinese devaluing is nil, that beats the hell out of the zero interest rates you now get with T-bills.

If they cave, then you could be in for a home run.

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.


[Audio] King World News Interview: John Embry

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 01:28 PM PST

John Embry discusses Gold & Silver in depth & the printing of currencies.


Guest Post: Ireland, Please Do the World a Favor and Default

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 12:57 PM PST


Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

Ireland, Please Do the World a Favor and Default

Ireland would save the world from much misery by defaulting now and driving the vampire banks into liquidation.

The alternative title for today entry is: Ireland, please drive a stake through the heart of the vampire banks which have the world by the throat. The entire controlled demolition of the Eurozone's finances can be summed up in one phrase: privatize leverage and profits, socialize losses and risk.

The basic deal is this: protect the bank's managers, shareholders and bondholders from any losses, while heaping the socialized losses and risks on the taxpayers and citizens.

While there are murmurings of "forcing bondholders to share the pain," any future haircut will undoubtedly be just for show, while the Irish pension funds are gutted to bail out the banks.

EU Outlines Bond Restructuring Plan (WSJ.com)

Europe Goes "Completely Mad" At Suggestion Of Irish Default Demanded By 57% Of Irish Population (Zero Hedge)

Here is a chart which illustrates the dynamic at play in Greece, Ireland and indeed, the rest of the world as well: leveraged speculation and mal-investment lead to asset deflation and collapse.


Here is a chart which illustrates how asset deflation leads to taxpayer-funded bank bailouts and then sovereign default. It's fairly self-explanatory:

It's rather straightforward: as asset bubbles rise, they enable vast leveraging of credit and debt. Once mal-invested assets collapse in value, then the debt remains, unsupported by equity or capital.

As the Financial/Political Elites transfer these catastrophic losses onto the citizenry, they set off a positive (runaway) feedback loop: the Central State austerity required to pay the borrowing costs of the bailout sends the economy into recession, which reduces borrowers' incomes, triggering more defaults which further sink housing prices. As prices continue falling, bank capital declines, requiring ever-larger bailouts to provide the banks with a simulacrum of solvency.

Austerity measures must be tightened to channel more of the citizens' incomes to the banks, which further suppresses the economy, lowering tax revenues and incomes, which leads to more austerity to fund more bailouts, and so on, until the haggard remnants of a once-wealthy citizenry finally rebel against their Financial/Political Overlords and topple the government which arranged the bailout.

A new populist government announces a sovereign default, to widespread huzzahs from the unyoked citizenry.

The EU's bailout of Greece and Ireland will only hasten this dynamic. The Power Elites are rapidly losing their credibility; just compare the market's euphoric reaction to the Greek bailout in May and the openly negative response to the Irish bailout.

The money is lost, and Capitalism requires those who took on the risk to earn outsized returns must take the loss, come what may. When a nation such as Ireland is running a State deficit equal to 32% of GDP, austerity cannot generate the stupendous surpluses needed to make good the vast sums which are already lost.

And even if they could, why should the citizens save the banks and bondholders from the losses Capitalism requires? Mal-investments should be sold, for pennies on the dollar if need be, insolvent banks liquidated and bondholders handed 95% losses. Managers would be sacked, bonuses cancelled and shareholders wiped out.

It's a little late to decide Capitalism is only fun when reaping gargantuan profits from highly leveraged mal-investment and fraud. Ireland, and indeed the world, will survive if all the vampire banks are liquidated. That is the end-state, and "buying time" just increases the misery of the citizens who have been yoked to save their "betters."

Ireland, please drive a stake through the heart of the vampire banks which have the world by the throat. By defaulting, you would be doing the world (and your own nation) an immense favor.


For week ending November 26, 2010

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 12:40 PM PST

Gold continues to act as one would expect when tracing out a bearish head and shoulder pattern. It's not finished yet and may not but it does require careful attention over the next week or so. GOLD It's the U.S. Thanksgiving week-end and most people are in holiday mode. Having lived over a dozen years in the U.S. I'll go along with that. This week is just the facts, little commentary. LONG TERM The long term P&F chart continues in a bullish mode. A drop to $1320, however, would break below two previous lows but would need a little more downside to break below the up trend line, which is at about the $1300 level requiring a move to $1285 to cause a bear signal. As for the normal indicators, gold remains comfortably above its positive sloping long term moving average line. The long term momentum indicator remains in its positive zone although it is heading lower and is below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator continues to move in new high ...


Silver money for China

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 12:35 PM PST

We have been proposing the monetization of a silver coin in Mexico since 2001. According to our proposal a one-ounce coin of pure silver, with no engraved value, would be given a monetary value by the Mexican Central Bank. This coin would exist and circulate as money, in parallel with the paper money system of Mexico. The monetary value would be superior to the bullion value of the silver ounce by about 15%. This margin would allow a profit, called “seigniorage”, for the Central Bank. Since the coin would not have an engraved value, rises in the price of silver (which would tend to eliminate the seigniorage of the Central Bank) would be met with new, higher, Central Bank quotes for the monetary value of the coin. The rises in the value of silver in the silver markets of the world would no longer cause the disappearance of the monetized silver ounce. As soon as a rise in the price of silver would begin to affect the seigniorage of the Central Bank, it wo...


How the U.S. Government Guaranteed the Coming Food Crisis

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 12:17 PM PST

By Porter Stansberry with Braden Copeland Saturday, November 27, 2010 Over the last several years, I've written constantly on the growing likelihood of a global currency collapse. The governments of Europe and the United States have accumulated debts so large they can't ever hope to repay them, except with currencies whose value will be inflated away by money-printing. That's led me to recommend inflation hedges like railroads, gold, silver, and various forms of energy. Owning these "real assets" is the single best way to protect yourself from the inflationary crisis. But make sure you don't forget the most important inflation hedge of all: food. If you've been reading the financial press for the past few months, you know the prices of vital food commodities are soaring. The price of corn is up 47% since this summer. Soybeans are up 30%. Wheat is up 43%. I expect this trend of higher food prices to continue for years as the U.S government intentionally deba...


Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Dollar Rally vs. Bernanke Put Edition)

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 11:53 AM PST

Graham Summers' Weekly Market Forecast (Dollar Rally vs. Bernanke Put Edition)

From mid-August to early November the markets have operated based on the "Bernanke put": the idea that our esteemed Fed Chairman will do everything in his power to keep stock levels up.

Indeed, with QE lite going in full force and QE2 on the horizon, the markets became dominated by the "inflation trade" in which the US Dollar fell and every other asset (specifically stocks and commodities) rallied on a near tick-for-tick basis.

gpc 11-29-1

However, once the Fed finally DID announced QE 2 in early November stocks began to sell off. Part of this was "selling the fact," but most of it had to do with a seismic shift occurring in the geo-political/ financial arena.

With several major countries now raising interest rates (Australia and China) or planning to halt their own QE/ Bailout efforts in the near future (the UK and EU), the Fed's QE 2 program signaled that going forward, the Fed would be on its own regarding its re-flation efforts.

This, combined with increasing political pressure hitting the Fed at home and abroad (China has made it clear it will not tolerate US Dollar debasement), has resulted in a seismic shift taking place in the markets. It's almost as though investors finally figured out that the Fed's "free lunch" liquidity schemes will eventually come at a cost, whether it be a US Dollar collapse, trade wars with China, or more.

As a result of this, stocks began a sell off almost to the day that QE 2 was announced. They've since begun to trade in a wide range between 1,200 and 1,180 on the S&P 500.

gpc 11-29-2

As I write this, the market hasn't been able to break below support at 1,180 convincingly, largely due to the fact that the Fed is juicing the market almost every day via QE lite and QE 2. On top of this, the majority of traders remain convinced that the Fed can prop this thing up no matter what.

By the same token, stocks can't seem to break above 1,200 on the S&P 500 because the whole world knows that QE 2 is the equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass and that the odds are high it will be end very badly (inflation, trade war with China, US Dollar collapse, etc). Consequently, traders are not able to rally enough enthusiasm to push the market higher even during the extremely light volume of Thanksgiving week.

One thing that COULD potentially override the "Bernanke Put" would be a major US Dollar rally. On that note I want to alert you to the fact the US Dollar looks to have broken out of its 6-month downward trading channel.

gpc 11-29-3

This move is of HUGE import as it could very easily kick the "inflation trade" off a cliff. As I've noted in previously essays, the US Dollar has been the carry trade of choice for many traders since the June '10 top. And with US Dollar bearishness at record highs, ANY upward momentum in the greenback could accelerate rapidly as the shorts are forced to cover.

Can a US Dollar rally overcome the Bernanke put? We'll find out this week. We have a total of six POMOs this week (two today and one every other day). So the Fed will literally be juicing the market by $6-9 billion EVERY day this week. If stocks can't remain afloat in the environment and the US Dollar strength continues, then the markets are heading into some VERY DARK times in the near future.

Indeed, I'm already preparing subscribers of my paid newsletter Private Wealth Advisory for this outcome. A few weeks ago I published a Special Report on QE2 outlining in intense detail what would come as a result of the Fed's mis-guided policies.

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"You Cannot Find a Bank Safe Deposit Box in Germany"

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 11:41 AM PST

"U.S. silver eagles sales at 3,935,000... will the U.S. Mint break the 4 million mark next week? SLV ETF has a huge withdrawal. Silver money for China. EU rescue starts to threaten Germany itself. Three terrific King World News interviews... and much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver Despite how bad the gold chart looks... all is not as it seems. With most gold traders at the bullion banks officially M.I.A. yesterday and Thursday, the volume associated with the price moves shown below were the smallest in memory. Over both trading days, the actual net volume [with all roll-overs removed] was well under 10,000 contracts total. As I mentioned in my column yesterday, Thanksgiving day volume [with New York closed] was vapour. So was Friday's volume. Don't read a thing into this price action. And no matter how bad the chart looks, exactly the same thing can be said about silver... although silver's net volume on both days was around 12,000 contracts. Th...


Silver: The Sleeping Giant

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 10:45 AM PST

(snippet)
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140/silver.pdf), silver mine production has not increased much over this decade, although Jon Nadler recently reported that mine production was higher by 3% from 2009 over 2008 levels. Total silver "production"- which includes other sources besides mining- has been increasing over the past several years, but this production still represents about 25 billion dollars (26,000 tonnes or so). I hate to sound cavalier, but 25 billion dollars is NOTHING  in our present debt-based, derivative saturated global economy. I might also point out that both Ted Butler and Michael Maloney interpret U.S. Geological Survey material to mean that silver mine production will begin DECREASING, not increasing over the next ten and twenty years. So the ability to ramp up mine production in order to help knock down the price (as was the case in the 1980s), may not be in the cards this time around. The two metals we will run out of first in the earth's crust are silver and then gold, and for anyone familiar with the numerous industrial uses for silver, it may not be the case that the industrial need of a certain amount of silver (as in some electronics) will decline by as much this time as thirty years ago in response to higher prices.
And so, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, it looks like we are on the cusp of a new investment mania brought about by people younger than the usual gold or silver bug (with all due respect to my elders) and who live outside the traditional sources of economic power in the West. But we've seen this kind of thing before: human beings don't like to buy things that are cheap and undervalued. People like to buy things that are expensive, hot, and "all the rage." That is just the way the human investing herd operates. Jim Puplava, nearly ten years ago, began advocating that people buy silver by the 1000 ounce bar, I believe. I don't need to tell you what a great idea this was. Mr. Puplava referred to silver as a sleeping giant, and this is of course true. But the real reason silver is a sleeping giant is because the PEOPLE are a sleeping giant. And a case can be made that this sleeping giant is waking up to rediscover exactly what constitutes its money.
More Here..


Collapsing Europe

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 10:23 AM PST

Online version is here

Collapsing Europe

They must be keeping their fingers firmly crossed in Brussels, even praying that the Irish rescue package will do more, much more than buy a little breathing space. Relying on divine intervention will not be good enough, because there are three separate problems that will now make the financial collapse of the euro area a racing certainty. These problems are the large amounts of cross-border lending, misguided economic responses, and creditor-debtor politics.

The scale of the Irish financial threat is considerably greater than commonly realised and presented, because the relative size of the Irish economy is being confused with the size of its external banking obligations which are significantly larger than those of Spain or Italy.  Cross-border loans to Ireland by BIS-reporting banks amount to the equivalent of $715bn, and the comparable figures for Spain are $534bn and for Italy $467bn.[i] Of course these are not the only cross-border financial flows, because they do not include outward banking deposits and securitised debt issued by the Irish government and large companies. But they are the figures that matter.

So we must focus on the banks, because they are at the heart of the real crisis.  The cross-border loans by BIS-reporting banks for all the PIIGS amounts to $1,982bn at mid-year, which is 32% of the euro area total and disproportionate relative to the size of the economies involved.  So if the largest of these debtors, which is Ireland, is allowed to fail there would probably be a full-blown banking crisis even before markets turn their attention to either Spain or Italy.

These same statistics show that between September 2008 and June this year the PIIGS between them have also suffered loan withdrawals of $611bn, which indicates how hard their economies are being squeezed by the withdrawal of credit. For Ireland alone the figure is $165bn, about the same as one year’s GDP, and more withdrawals will have taken place since June, putting the proposed rescue package of only $113bn into context. This acute deflation is being conducted at the same time as taxes are being increased, which brings us to the serious mistakes being made in the management of the economy.

The Irish government has got one thing right: the importance of keeping corporation tax low. Brussels views things differently, partly because Germany and France see Ireland as unfair competition with respect to corporate location. So between Brussels and Dublin an ugly camel is born, and their attempts to close the budget deficit by a mixture of tax rises and public sector wage cuts while robbing state pension funds betrays a lack of resolve to tackle banking solvency properly. It is madness to punish the Irish people for the current banking crisis, because Brussels is shooting at the wrong target: rescuing the European banking system does not require the Irish economy to be driven into the ground, it requires Brussels to recognise it has a full-scale banking problem on its hands.

Both lender and borrower must bear responsibility for such wrong-headedness.  It amounts to a protection of jobs in the public sector, while taxes are raised from the private sector and pensions are robbed.  Taxing individuals and the private sector to reduce budget deficits prevents vital capital formation and so condemns Ireland’s economy to a prolonged period without recovery. This socially-driven approach is counterproductive, a point which will not be lost on the markets, when they work out that Ireland will be less able to repay its creditors because economic recovery, upon which government finances rely, is effectively cancelled.

So markets are now faced with a bail-out too small to reverse the run on the Irish banks, and by an Irish economy that has no chance of economic recovery in the foreseeable future.  A bail-out of $113bn amounts to an injection of only half of the money withdrawn from Ireland by the banks in the last two years. It is simply not enough.

The crisis is not helped by the understandable reluctance of the German people to commit more good money after bad.  It was difficult enough for Angela Merkel to come up with the funding for Greece, which was sold to the German electorate as a one-off.  Six months later it’s Ireland, presumably then Portugal, then Spain. It is no surprise that she wanted someone else, like senior bondholders to share the pain. But talk of bondholder haircuts merely creates a new bond market crisis to add to the banking crisis and will drive up Irish bond yields even further; and back-peddling on this issue is unlikely to undo the damage.

The importance of Ireland is that is the biggest cross-border banking debtor of all the PIIGS.  If the Irish banks are not saved, the European banking system will probably go under, and soon, without waiting for the pressure to mount on Portugal Spain and Italy. The politicians and bureaucrats of Euroland have not demonstrated a sufficient sense of urgency and understanding of the true crisis to resolve it: rather they have made it worse.  It is now becoming impossible to see a way out of the euro-banking problem without the ECB giving in on its anti-inflation stance and implementing aggressive quantitative easing. However, the ECB was set up to survive attempts to get it to inflate, so if it backs down from its sound-money stance in the middle of this crisis, the euro itself will suffer a loss of confidence.

It looks like divine intervention is the best hope after all.

28 November 2010


[i]

These figures are as at the end of June 2010 and are from the Quarterly External Debt Database portal of the World Bank.
 

Alasdair Macleod

FinanceAndEconomics.Org
Somerled
Newton Poppleford
Sidmouth
Devon EX10 0BX
 
Tel:  +447790 419403
       +441935 568393


The Euro Has Become Schrodinger's Money: Goldman Sees European Currency As Both Alive And Dead

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 10:16 AM PST


It's time for a shirt: "Irish bondholders got a bailout and all the EURUSD managed was a measly 35 pips higher." It seems the currency vigilantes are calling the bluff in JC Trichet, and tomorrow Portuguese bonds will be next on the bidless brigade, further validating that the IMF's, just like the Fed's, primary mandate is to rescue insolvent bankers everywhere there is a taxpayer population that can be raped. But back to the EUR: at last check the currency was trading well inside 1.33, and only about 2.2k pips from Thomas Stolper's 12 month target of 1.55. Not to begrudge anything to Tom: after all, post QE4 he will certainly be spot on (the only question is how long it take Blackhawk Ben to get us there), but we wonder if another Goldman luminary got the memo. To wit: in an interview with the Telegraph, Jim "BRIC" O'Neill told Kamal Ahmad that "the eurozone must embark on a significant round of fiscal and political harmonisation if the euro is to survive...there are elements of the black swan concept that seem rather applicable to the EMU story" and if that wasn't clear enough, he added that the "euro should carry a "risk premium" and that it was over-valued by at least 10pc." Bottom line, according to O'Neill the "fair value for the euro is €1.20 against the dollar and anyone buying it 10pc above that is not very sensible." Uh.... What? Did Wikileaks intercept the memo from Thomas Stolper sent out just this November 25, in which the chief currency strategist said: "Overall, we believe the EUR/$ remains very much on track for the projected trajectory of 1.40 in 3mths as well as  1.50  and 1.55 in 6 and 12 months." And like that, Goldman has all bases covered. Of course, seeing how the outcome is binary, Goldman has just discovered the Schrodinger currency: per the bank that rules the world, the euro is now both alive and dead at the same time.

As a reminder, here is what Stolper said 3 days ago:

Eurozone Risks

The primary market focus currently is on Eurozone sovereign risks again. Our baseline is that these risks will not escalate much further. Specifically we believe that Spain will not need a bail-out as Francesco Garzarelli and Erik Nielsen have continued to highlight. Should this assumption turn out to be right, the EUR will likely strengthen again, otherwise we could see another sustained broad decline. In any case the current drop in EUR was not really a surprise. For example we highlighted since the summer in our FX research that the implementation phase of European fiscal tightening and further reforms will likely lead to renewed tensions and pressures on the Euro. Though to be fair, we initially thought this would materialise earlier.
 
At the latest forecast revisions in early October, we explicitly mentioned the risk of a temporary dip below 1.30 in EUR/$ on European sovereign issues and broader risk aversion. However, our baseline is that sovereign stress abates fairly quickly as otherwise our view of a relatively quick move back up may not materialise. And these fiscal worries are a powerful force, which even managed to temporarily overcome the risk correlations as we could see at the beginning of 2010, when stocks did well globally, the correlations in daily returns remained unchanged but where the sovereign concerns in Europe led to a strong temporary EUR down trend nevertheless.
 
A related risk is that fiscal tightening leads to much weaker growth performance in the Eurozone, but there again Germany acts as an anchor. With very little fiscal consolidation needed the overall fiscal tightening in the Eurozone will be far less than in the peripheral countries.
 
On the positive side, the latest round of PMIs suggests the core of the Eurozone may continue to show upside surprises, which over time would likely help alleviate sovereign stress and support the case for tighter ECB policy.
 
Overall, we believe EUR/$ remains very much on track for the projected trajectory of 1.40 in 3mths as well as  1.50  and 1.55 in 6 and 12 months. Of course, the biggest near term risk is further deepening of the Eurozone sovereign crisis and there is no doubt that further EUR/$ weakness would be the result. On the other hand, if things calm down again, opportunities for tactical long positions look increasingly good.
 
Finally, one question we face very often is about the viability of Eurozone growth with EUR/$ at 1.55. Our answer is that we really believe in broad USD weakness and hence the trade weighted appreciation of the EUR will be fairly limited if our forecasts are correct. 

And some more:

Our EUR/$ Baseline Forecast

Sometimes we find it useful to look at an ideal USD downside scenario before comparing our forecasts with this benchmark. This approach helps looking beyond all the short term factors dominating the headlines and to cut out some market noise.
 
Starting with continued strong correlations to risky assets, it is pretty clear that the USD tends to weaken when risky assets perform well and vice versa. This in turn suggests that USD weakness requires a clearly positive outlook for cyclical assets. One of the reasons why this correlations still holds in our view is that a large number of foreign investors in US equities are currency hedged, whereas US investors in foreign stocks rather tend to be unhedged. As a result a global risky asset rally tends to translate into asymmetric flows from foreign investors who end up being under hedged and need to sell more USD against their home currency. A positive global decoupling scenario with persistent US imbalances is pretty close to such a weak USD scenario from a risk correlation point of view.
 
The hedging asymmetries also suggest that a scenario where the US is clearly in the process of adjusting the structural imbalances would ultimately be USD positive as equity investors may start reducing their hedging asymmetries. This in turn would lead to sizable USD buying.
 
Finally, looking at the policy mix, tighter fiscal and easier monetary policy in the US than in most other countries would also help reduce support for the USD.
 
Our current macro forecasts pretty much tick all the boxes. We expect a continued global recovery with still persistent imbalances in the US and easier monetary policy by the Fed than in most other places. On the basis of this global view USD weakness remains the most likely trend to dominate FX markets. As part of a trade weighted Dollar decline we would certainly expect the Euro to join in. And in fact, many of the macro factors in the US seem to be the other way round in the Eurozone, including tighter monetary policy and a positive risk correlation for the currency.

So how come Jim O'Neill can hit the press circuit less than 48 hours later and say that the Euro is virtually doomed:

"There are elements of the black swan concept that seem rather applicable to the EMU story," Mr O'Neill said.

"You have to consider that very extreme outcomes could be possible. I'm generally a person that sees the glass half full, but there are aspects to this European situation that could involve some pretty ugly developments.

Is there a power struggle within Goldman? That is the only one to explain such a dramatic divergence in opinions on the future of the common European currency:

"The euro deserves a risk premium - it is expensive compared to fair value. I think fair value for the euro is €1.20 against the dollar and anyone buying it 10pc above that is not very sensible.

"[The question is] how can you have a monetary union with such disparate countries without having some form of fiscal union? It's a pretty good question. I think the evidence is growing that you actually can't."

Asked directly whether, looking over a five to 10- year horizon, he agrees with the argument that there will either be a break-up of the single currency or a fiscal union, he said:

"I think that is right. We won't get an answer for many years and we will waver between them both but you will get greater evidence of [fiscal union]. People talk about a European monetary fund which effectively would have the ability to approve a budget plan before it was put to a country's voters."

Of course, it wouldn't be Jim O'Neill if he didn't infuse half a metric ton of his own personal unfounded hopium in the mssage:

He said that he expected to see a pick-up in the US economy and that the dollar could therefore strengthen. That would then would then exert downward pressure on the value of gold.

Odd. We on the other hand anticipate that the complete collapse of the sovereign debt house of cards may actually result in upward pressure in the price of gold.

But who are we to say anything: after all our opinions are, gasp, consistent, with what we say at least two days earlier.

Full O'Neill clip.

 


LISTEN: $5,000 Gold

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:32 AM PST

Rob McEwen Saturday, November 27, 2010 Rob McEwen: CEO & Chairman of the Board (BA, MBA) US Gold, Executive Chairman, Director, President & CEO Minera Andes – Rob is the original founder of Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE:GG TSX:G), where he took the… Listen Share this:


This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Copper: the NEW ‘Poor Man’s Gold’

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:10 AM PST

By Jeff Nielson, Bullion Bulls Canada

Silver bulls are very familiar with the somewhat facetious label attached to silver: that it is a "poor man's gold". However, as investors to the silver sector have increasingly come to realize, with silver inventories plummeting while silver's importance to our modern economy continues to grow, silver doesn't have to take a "back seat" to any other metal. Meanwhile, the price for a different, semi-precious metal is surging higher, while inventories for it are in steady decline: copper.

Since the commodities Crash of '08, I have generally avoided all base metals miners in my portfolio – focusing exclusively on precious metals miners, as it was clear that this sector was going to bounce-back well ahead of any other. However, I certainly never abandoned my general enthusiasm for commodities.

We are currently in the early stages of the largest growth-boom in the history of our species. Previously, the next greatest, protracted episode of economic growth was the rebuilding of Europe following World War II. That economic expansion fueled the global economy for decades, before these mature economies began to substitute credit-induced "bubbles" for real economic growth.

This is not the situation in Asia, nor in many other emerging/developing economies. Here we see a similar episode of rapid, concentrated expansion – except that it is involving ten times as many people as the post-World War II economic boom. As billions of people in (previously) poorer economies begin to urbanize, their standard of living is quickly moving toward the middle-class affluence which Western economies used to take for granted.

There is every reason to believe that a growth-boom fueled by ten times as many people is going to lead to ten times as much total economic growth – meaning that this boom will be ten times as large, ten times as long, or (more likely) some combination of the two. To fuel this unprecedented growth means expanding resource production at the greatest rate in history.

Here we immediately see problems. With "peak oil" already a reality for our global economy, we are seeing supply constraints popping-up for many essential raw materials. In this respect, I remain heavily influenced by the superb research and analysis conducted by Chris Martenson. While his video presentation, "The Crash Course" is now several years old, Martenson was so far ahead of his time that the analysis remains "cutting edge".

Among the most notable of Martenson's conclusions is that it isn't necessary to be facing absolute limits on the quantities of various minerals in the Earth's crust in order for us to begin facing "peak production" scenarios. Instead, Martenson focuses on two related points.

First of all, most of the high-grade/easily accessible mineral deposits for many key minerals have already been found and developed. Thus, we must now dig much deeper, or do much more processing of lower-grade ore in order to simply replace the existing deposits which are drying up. It is an open (and as yet unanswered) question as to whether we are even capable of significantly expanding supply, given the increasing difficulty (and cost) in extracting these resources from the Earth.

Secondly, this increased "effort" to mine these minerals directly translates into much greater energy requirements. In other words, it will take many more barrels of oil to produce a ton of refined copper than even a single decade earlier. Thus, as resource production becomes more difficult, it also becomes even more energy-intensive.

Even today, in most mines energy is the #2 production cost, behind only labour. This leaves us in a scenario where as oil becomes rapidly more scarce, we will need much more of it to produce every unit of raw materials for this massive, global expansion.

More articles from Bullion Bulls Canada….


Why the Government Hates Deflation

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:09 AM PST

By The Mogambo Guru

Being the naturally cynical type of guy that you would expect from someone so angry, so depressed, so outraged, so paranoid and so "Howard Beale" ("I'm as mad as hell, and I'm not going to take this anymore!") as I am, people want to know "what is with" all of this "deflation" stuff that the Fed is worried about.

Some of them write to me, some beginning, "Dear Mogambo" or, "Dear Moron." These are the ones I immediately delete without reading, as they did not have the proper opening salutation.

On the other hand, if the email is properly addressed, I will immediately read it, such as this latest one here that correctly begins, "Dear Handsome And Wise Mogambo (HAWM), What is with all of this fear of deflation? It is being portrayed as a dread so fearful that the treacherous, foul Federal Reserve feels somehow justified in using monstrous monetary policy to target inflation in prices to be at least 2% per year, which is the most horrifically terrible thing that the treacherous, foul Fed could do except target 3% inflation in prices, which is the most horrifically terrible thing that the treacherous, foul Fed could so except target 4% inflation in prices, which is the most horrifically terrible thing that the treacherous, foul Fed could do except target 5% inflation in prices, a point at which I assume it is unnecessary to continue along this obvious and tedious continuum because you get the point by virtue of your being as smart as you are handsome and wise! (signed) A Fan Of The Mogambo (AFOTM)."

Firstly, let me say that I am pleased to see that fawning and groveling has not gone completely out of style, and let me say that that obvious, sniveling, servile and undeserved flattery is always appreciated.

My pervasive bad mood got the better of me, however, and my answer was, "Dear AFOTM, Deflation is a fall in the money supply. Thanks for asking me instead of looking it up, you moron! –Mogambo"

Well, AFOTM immediately wrote back, using our sudden familiarity to eliminate the use of an unctuous salutation, saying, "Screw you moron! (signed) Former Fan (FF)."

Former fan! I viciously think to myself, "Two can play at this game!" and replied, "Dear FF, you treacherous little backstabbing moron, Deflation is a fall in the money supply, but it is always associated with falling asset prices, which is why that is also called deflation, too, which is when a lesser total money has to be spread among the same (in the short run) amount of actual assets, which means that the pro-rata money available for each asset goes down, which makes some prices go down, which hands losses to the owners of the assets, which they don't like, which are thankfully netted against gains when paying taxes, which means less tax revenue to the government, which the government doesn't like!"

Helpfully, I did not expand into bogus mathematical terms, which is that the ratio of Money Supply to Actual Assets (MS/AA) obviously goes down when the Money Supply goes down, which it can do for a variety of reasons, one of which is when any creditor has to take a loss, because fiat money is created by a bank at the instant that someone borrows money from a bank.

Therefore, then, money also literally disappears when the debt, underlying the fiat money, disappears when being defaulted upon because the guy who owes the money to the bank decided to default, jumped into his snazzy new car in the middle of the night and headed out of town and across state lines to start a new life, in a new place, with a new name, and an even snazzier, newer car.

Of course, unless you are a dealer of snazzy new cars, it is worse than this, as the losses are not constrained to being one-to-one with the number of dollars created! Oh, no! Losses are in huge multiples of the original money created, thanks to the outrageously out-of-control fractional-reserves insanity in the banks that the Federal Reserve, under the horrid Alan Greenspan, was allowing and abetting, and the huge financial spider web of derivatives so that we could have a gigantic stock market bubble, and a bond bubble, and a derivatives bubble, and a housing bubble, and huge, cancerous bubble in the growth of government, which is not to even mention a whole asset-management/retirement-account industry of such greed and corrupted ethics that it makes 40% of all the profits of America, and for doing very, very little except enriching itself, its friends and Congressional lapdogs.

It got so bad around the end of the housing bubble that that changes in bank reserves were, literally, zero, as nothing was held against the banks literally lending out as much new money as they wanted, whether they had additional deposits or not! Infinite leverage!

It's not quite that way now, although bank reserves are still a piddly $68 billion, while the M2 money supply is up over $400 billion, to $8.76 trillion, from this time last year, which is an increase of about 4%.

And the Fed is already launching QE2 to create another $600 billion ($1.2 trillion annualized) so that the federal government can deficit-spend it in the next six months! I howl – Ahhooooohhh! – in outrage!

Hooper and Bandit, two animated characters at thewallstreetshuffle.com who do a very good job of discussing Austrian economics, note that "When the Fed finishes buying the $600 billion of US Treasuries and other debt, that they will be the largest single holder of US treasury debt in the world." Wow! Wow and yikes!

They sum it up as, "This is just plain and simple gross monetization of our federal debt," and that "the result will be a 'financial Chernobyl' with dollars spreading like radiation around the world."

Dollars as radioactive death is an interesting metaphor, and should be alarming to those who hold dollars, but not to those buying gold, silver and oil as ways to save themselves against the predations of the Federal Reserve and the government.

To the buyers of gold, silver and oil, "dollars as radioactive death" means, "Whee! This investing stuff is easy!"

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Why the Government Hates Deflation originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today's markets. Its been called "the most entertaining read of the day."


GoldSeek Radio's Waltzek interviews Murphy, Austin Fitts, and Turk

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:08 AM PST

12:13p ET Saturday, November 27, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Gatans Bill Murphy, Catherine Austin Fitts, and James Turk are interviewed today during the weekly precious metals market review by GoldSeek Radio's Chris Waltzek. Their part begins at about 1:25 of the program here:

http://radio.goldseek.com/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:http://www.gata.org/node/16


Trace Mayer interviews Dave Morgan on silver market manipulation

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:08 AM PST

11:24a ET Sunday, November 28, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

Trace Mayer of RunToGold.com talks with Silver-Investor.com's Dave Morgan about silver market manipulation and the prospects for ending it in a 15-minute video interview at RunToGold.com. The work of silver market analyst Ted Butler and GATA is mentioned. You can find the interview here:

http://www.runtogold.com/2010/11/david-morgan-silver-manipulation/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


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Prophecy Receives Permit To Mine at Ulaan Ovoo in Mongolia

VANCOUVER, British Columbia — Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX-V:PCY, OTCQX: PRPCF, Frankfurt: 1P2) announces that on November 9, 2010, it received the final permit to commence mining operations at its Ulaan Ovoo coal project in Mongolia. Prophecy is one of few international mining companies to achieve such a milestone. The mine is production-ready, with a mine opening ceremony scheduled for November 20.

Prophecy CEO John Lee said: "I thank the government of Mongolia for the expeditious way this permit was issued. The opening of Ulaan Ovoo is a testament to the industrious and skilled workforce in Mongolia. Prophecy directly and indirectly (through Leighton Asia) employs more than 65 competent Mongolian nationals and four expatriots. The company also reaffirms its commitment to deliver coal to the local Edernet and Darkhan power plants in Mongolia."

The Ulaan Ovoo open pit mine is 10 kilometers from the Russian border and within 120km of the Nauski TransSiberian railway station, enabling transportation of coal to Russia and its eastern seaports. Thermal coal prices are trading at two-year highs at Russian seaports due to strong demand from Asian economies.

For the complete press release, please visit:

http://prophecyresource.com/news_2010_nov11.php



Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt:

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Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009:

http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal

Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon:

http://www.goldrush21.com/

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Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

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Sona Drills 85.4g Gold/Ton Over 4 Metres at Elizabeth Gold Deposit,
Extending the Mineralization of the Southwest Vein on the Property

Company Press Release, October 27, 2010

VANCOUVER, British Columbia — Sona Resources Corp. reports on five drillling holes in the third round of assay results from the recently completed drill program at its 100 percent-owned Elizabeth Gold Deposit Property in the Lillooet Mining District of southern British Columbia. Highlights from the diamond drilling include:

– Hole E10-66 intersected 17.4g gold/ton over 1.54 metres.

– Hole E10-67 intersected 96.4g gold/ton over 2.5 metres, including one assay interval of 383g of gold/ton over 0.5 metres.

– Hole E10-69 intersected 85.4g gold/ton over 4.03 metres, including one assay interval of 230g gold/ton over 1 metre.

Four drill holes, E10-66 to E10-69, targeted the southwestern end of the Southwest Vein, and three of the holes have expanded the mineralized zone in that direction. The Southwest Vein gold mineralization has now been intersected over a strike length of 325 metres, with the deepest hole drilled less than 200 metres from surface. "The assay results from the Southwest Zone quartz vein continue to be extremely positive," says John P. Thompson, Sona's president and CEO. "We are expanding the Southwest Vein, and this high-grade gold mineralization remains wide open down dip and along strike to the southwest."

For the company's full press release, please visit:

http://sonaresources.com/_resources/news/SONA_NR19_2010.pdf


Embry and McEwen interviews posted at King World News

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

12:01p ET Saturday, November 27, 2010

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold (and Silver):

This week's King World News interviews with Sprott Asset Management's John Embry and mining entrepreneur Rob McEwen have been posted.

You can listen to the Embry interview here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/27_John…

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://bit.ly/fetw5O

The McEwen interview can be found here:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/11/27_Rob_…

Or try this abbreviated link:

http://bit.ly/h8uVBW

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Help keep GATA going

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16


European Turmoil: Boon for Silver, Gold, and the Australian Dollar

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

Ananthan Thangavel submits:

The past week has had financial markets focus on the impending Irish bailout. Starting in April of this year, Eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy have all been under scrutiny for their heavy government debt burdens while economic growth languishes. The huge amount of sovereign debt is worrisome, as it threatens to derail the global economic recovery. However, in our view, the debt will cause even more money printing by developed economies, which will be bullish for precious metals and emerging market currencies going forward.

Markets are worried about the threat of default by these debt-ridden European countries. While this is a possible outcome, it is a highly improbable one. Throughout the history of time, governments who have faced huge debt problems inflate their way out of the debt. In such a manner, governments print money to pay down their debt, thereby reducing the nominal value of the debt. Since the debt is measured in nominal terms (i.e. $10,000) and not the value of what that debt could purchase, governments often resort to money printing in order to ease the burden of debt repayment.

Read more »


Head and Shoulders Pattern in Gold?

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

While anyone doubting the ascent of gold over the last ten years has gotten their heads handed to them, the commodity's recent pattern is beginning to resemble a head and shoulders topping pattern. While the utility of trading on head and shoulders formations is questionable, look for increased chatter over this developing pattern in the coming days and weeks (click to enlarge).

Read more »


The Gold Price Over Thanksgiving

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

Tim Iacono submits:

Well, so much for the theory that the gold price tends to go up over the Thanksgiving holiday, when traders in the US are away from their desks and the rest of the world is more likely to do more buying of the metal than selling.

Read more »


Higher demand helps gold to shine

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

Higher demand for gold is helping the precious metal to shine in the Indian market, reports Business Standard.
The market in the country is gaining from a variety of different influences, according to the news provider.
The news feeds on this site are independently provided by Adfero Limited © and do not represent the views or opinions of the World Gold Council.

Read more….


Canadian Zodiac coins ‘ideal gifts for winter’

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 09:06 AM PST

Numismatic enthusiasts looking for the perfect gifts to give this holiday season could find Zodiac patterns from the Royal Canadian Mint to be ideal.
Planet Insane reports that the vendor currently has two options available reflecting characters from the Chinese Zodiac.
The news feeds on this site are independently provided by Adfero Limited © and do not represent the views or opinions of the World Gold Council.

Read more….


In The News Today

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 07:15 AM PST

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

QE to infinity goes for the EU too.

Next will be Portugal, Spain and Italy getting bailed out. This will happen all at once or in series.

Currency wars will continue, resulting in currency induced cost push inflation.

EU backs Irish bailout
By Jan Strupczewski and Julien Toyer

BRUSSELS — The European Union approved an 85 billion euro ($115 billion) rescue for Ireland Sunday and outlined a permanent system to resolve Europe's debt crisis, in which investors could share the cost of any future default.

Finance ministers from the 16-nation euro zone, anxious to prevent market contagion engulfing Portugal and Spain, unanimously endorsed an emergency loan package to help Dublin cover bad bank debts and bridge a huge budget deficit.

"Ministers concur with the (European) Commission and the European Central Bank that providing a loan to Ireland is warranted to safeguard financial stability in the Euro area and in the European Union as a whole," Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the euro area ministers, announced at a news conference.

The Irish government said 35 billion euros was earmarked to help restructure its shattered banks, of which 10 billion would be an immediate capital injection and the rest a contingency fund. Ireland will contribute 17.5 billion euros of its own cash and pension reserves toward the bank rescue.

The rest of the emergency loans, which Dublin said were granted at an average interest rate of 5.8 percent, will help cover the giant hole the banks have blown in public finances. The IMF will contribute 22.5 billion euros.

More…

 

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

Only 3 weeks ago these people were blasting Bernanke for his mad venture into QE. Now the trillion dollar Euroland bailout fund is too small.

That means one trillion in QE in Euroland is too small and must be expanded.

Spain and Portugal are next, either one after another or both together.

QE is going to infinity.

Ireland bailout: fears mount that eurozone fund is too small
European commission dismisses remarks by Axel Weber, head of German central bank, that €440bn Financial Stability Facility may need more money to secure euro against bond markets
Ian Traynor in Brussels

The European Union is expected to announce a bailout of about €85bn (£72bn) for Ireland on Sunday, senior EU officials disclosed tonight amid worries that Europe's €750bn safety net for the single currency might not be enough to cope with the spreading emergency.

Brian Lenihan, the beleaguered Irish finance minister, is to travel to Brussels or Luxembourg, sources said, to make the bailout statement with Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's prime minister and head of the Eurogroup of 16 single currency countries, and Olli Rehn, EU commissioner for economic and financial affairs. The announcement is to be preceded by a meeting of eurozone finance ministers to rubber-stamp the bailout, probably by video conference.

With Ireland the first EU country to tap into the emergency fund – Greece's €110bn rescue in the spring was done separately – there was intense speculation today that the fund was not big enough to secure the euro against the bond markets after Axel Weber, head of Germany's central bank, said it may need to be increased.

German media reports today claimed that the commission was lobbying for the largest part of the fund – the €440bn European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) – to be doubled. Berlin promptly said there was no chance of increasing the fund, to which it is the biggest contributor, and Brussels dismissed the reports.

Speaking in Paris , Weber, a contentious figure who has been critical of the Greek bailout, said €750bn "should be more than enough to counter attacks on the eurozone. If it's not enough, then one will have to increase this commitment."

More…

Jim Sinclair's Commentary

This all started as country building but all it built was a new mafia.

When Afghanistan's vice president visited the UAE last year, he was carrying $52 million in cash.

Cables Obtained by WikiLeaks Shine Light Into Secret Diplomatic Channels
By SCOTT SHANE and ANDREW W. LEHREN
Published: November 28, 2010

WASHINGTON — A cache of a quarter-million confidential American diplomatic cables, most of them from the past three years, provides an unprecedented look at backroom bargaining by embassies around the world, brutally candid views of foreign leaders and frank assessments of nuclear and terrorist threats.

Some of the cables, made available to The New York Times and several other news organizations, were written as recently as late February, revealing the Obama administration's exchanges over crises and conflicts. The material was originally obtained by WikiLeaks, an organization devoted to revealing secret documents. WikiLeaks intends to make the archive public on its Web site in batches, beginning Sunday.

The anticipated disclosure of the cables is already sending shudders through the diplomatic establishment, and could conceivably strain relations with some countries, influencing international affairs in ways that are impossible to predict.

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and American ambassadors around the world have been contacting foreign officials in recent days to alert them to the expected disclosures. A statement from the White House on Sunday said: "We condemn in the strongest terms the unauthorized disclosure of classified documents and sensitive national security information."

"President Obama supports responsible, accountable, and open government at home and around the world, but this reckless and dangerous action runs counter to that goal," the statement said. "By releasing stolen and classified documents, WikiLeaks has put at risk not only the cause of human rights but also the lives and work of these individuals."

More…


PHYSICAL SILVER – THE ANTHEM FOR 2011

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 07:07 AM PST

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Do you even know about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 07:04 AM PST

China, Russia, Iran Dumping Dollar For Gold Share this:


It's Not Just the "Peripheral" European Countries ... Financial Contagion Could Spread to "Core" Eurozone Countries and the U.S.

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:59 AM PST


Washington’s Blog

It's not just the "peripheral" European countries which are in trouble.

As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported yesterday:

The escalating debt crisis on the eurozone periphery is starting to contaminate the creditworthiness of Germany and the core states of monetary union.

 

Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German, French and Dutch bonds have surged over recent days, rising significantly above the levels of non-EMU states in Scandinavia.

 

"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 

The refrain was picked up this week by German finance minister Wolfgang Sch¨uble. "We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts," he told the Bundestag.

 

While Germany's public and private debt is not extreme, it is very high for a country on the cusp of an acute ageing crisis. Adjusted for demographics, Germany is already one of the most indebted nations in the world.

(While future demographic trends for the U.S. are not good, for example, Germany's population is even older.)

As I wrote in May:

As the following Reuters chart shows (based on information provided by BIS), France and Germany are the largest holder of Greek debt:

http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/04/GLB_GRDEBT0410.gif

As The Street notes, France and Germany are also greatly exposed to Portugal and Spain:

France's banking sector has the second-largest exposure to Portugal and Spain debt loads, after Germany, according to the BIS.

 

European banks have more at-risk assets in Portugal and Spain than in Greece. European lenders are holding Portugal debt issues of $240.5 billion -- including $47.4 billion by German banks and $44.9 billion by French firms, according to BIS figures from the end of 2009 quoted in a Bloomberg report.

And as Tyler Durden points out, France Germany and the UK are getting hit with wider credit default swap spreads:
With a stunning $630 million, $558 million and $370 million in net notional derisking, France, UK and Germany are the top three most active recipients in negative bets in the prior week, not just in sovereigns but in all names...

Zero Hedge's outside bet to be the first core country to blow up, thanks to its massive PIIGS exposure, France, finally made the top spot in net derisking, with $629 million in net notional, or 189 contracts. The smart money is now massively betting that Europe's core is done for; as the PIIGS have demonstrated, the blow out in spreads for the core trifecta can not be far behind.
Given that central bankers have - for several years - focused on credit default swaps as the most important economic indicator (see this and this), widening spreads are a bad sign, indeed.

As the Washington Post points out today, the U.S. is not immune:

 

U.S. banks hold about $133 billion in debt from Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece ....

 

***

 

A full-blown debt crisis in Europe could ... also send the euro plunging against the dollar, making the greenback stronger on world markets and undermining the efforts of the Obama administration to boost U.S. exports overseas.

 

"For now, the U.S. is kind of insulated," said Simon White, a partner at the London-based research firm Variant Perception. But whether it stays that way, he said, "depends on how deep the crisis goes."

CNN notes:

Americans will not be spared if there's a recession in Europe, even if U.S. bank exposure to European government debt is relatively limited.

 

The European Union is the second largest market for U.S. exports, behind only Canada. The EU bought about $175 billion in U.S. goods in the first three quarters of this year. That's up about 8% from a year ago.

So worsening problems in Europe will clearly be a drag on the U.S. as well.

Niall Ferguson, Marc Faber, and SocGen's Edwards and Grice predicted 9 months ago that the European debt crisis would eventually spread to America.

But the question of what country the "contagion" might spread to next is the really wrong question altogether.

The real question is whether the wealth of the people around the world will continue to be shoveled into the bottomless pit of debts held by the big banks, or whether the people will prevail and the giant banks and bondholders will be forced to take a haircut. See this, this and this.


Crash JP Morgan supporter – but dude, you are completely wrong about Silver – its uses industrially are many

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:51 AM PST

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First transgender Crash JP Morgan Buy Silver vid.

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:48 AM PST

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Is US Foreign Policy Crippled Following Latest Wikileaks Dump?

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:36 AM PST


The latest Wikileaks data dump has been released and it is about to make the world hate the US just that little bit more: it represents a massive sampling of the daily traffic between the State Department and some 270 embassies and consulates. And as the attached front page of tomorrow's Der Spiegel shows, according to the unclassified US embassy cables, America had something quite unpleasant to say about virtually everyone, culminating with Ahmadinejad, who was called "Hitler." But aside from the unpleasantries which may or may not be buried (and don't expect a prompt burial: Der Spiegel is already on the case and has this to say, "251,000 State Department documents, many of them secret embassy reports from around the world, show how the US seeks to safeguard its influence around the world. It is nothing short of a political meltdown for US foreign policy") the far bigger question will be how the once great American superpower could have allowed such a huge oversight in traditionally classified diplomacy. Very soon the once-legendary US foreign service department will be butt of all jokes. Perhaps it is time for someone within the administration to finally take some blame for this fiasco, although we most certainly are not holding our breath for a Hillary Clinton resignation.

Here is more on Der Spiegel's early take of the wikileaks release:

Such surprises from the annals of US diplomacy will dominate the headlines in the coming days when the New York Times, London's Guardian, Paris' Le Monde, Madrid's El Pais  and SPIEGEL begin shedding light on the treasure trove of secret documents from the State Department. Included are 243,270 diplomatic cables filed by US embassies to the State Department and 8,017 directives that the State Department sent to its diplomatic outposts around the world. In the coming days, the participating media will show in a series of investigative stories how America seeks to steer the world. The development is no less than a political meltdown for American foreign policy.

Never before in history has a superpower lost control of such vast amounts of such sensitive information -- data that can help paint a picture of the foundation upon which US foreign policy is built. Never before has the trust America's partners have in the country been as badly shaken. Now, their own personal views and policy recommendations have been made public -- as have America's true views of them.

A brief overview of the content by the NYT:

The cables show that nearly a decade after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, the dark shadow of terrorism still dominates the United States’ relations with the world. They depict the Obama administration struggling to sort out which Pakistanis are trustworthy partners against Al Qaeda, adding Australians who have disappeared in the Middle East to terrorist watch lists, and assessing whether a lurking rickshaw driver in Lahore, Pakistan, was awaiting fares or conducting surveillance of the road to the American Consulate.

They show American officials managing relations with a China on the rise and a Russia retreating from democracy. They document years of painstaking effort to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon — and of worry about a possible Israeli strike on Iran with the same goal.

And cable specifics:

  • Mixed records against terrorism: Saudi donors remain the chief financiers of Sunni militant groups like Al Qaeda, and the tiny Persian Gulf state of Qatar, a generous host to the American military for years, was the “worst in the region” in counterterrorism efforts, according to a State Department cable last December. Qatar’s security service was “hesitant to act against known terrorists out of concern for appearing to be aligned with the U.S. and provoking reprisals,” the cable said.
  • Arms deliveries to militants: Cables describe the United States’ failing struggle to prevent Syria from supplying arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has amassed a huge stockpile since its 2006 war with Israel. One week after President Bashar al-Assad promised a top State Department official that he would not send “new” arms to Hezbollah, the United States complained that it had information that Syria was providing increasingly sophisticated weapons to the group.
  • A global computer hacking effort: China’s Politburo directed the intrusion into Google’s computer systems in that country, a Chinese contact told the American Embassy in Beijing in January, one cable reported. The Google hacking was part of a coordinated campaign of computer sabotage carried out by government operatives, private security experts and Internet outlaws recruited by the Chinese government. They have broken into American government computers and those of Western allies, the Dalai Lama and American businesses since 2002, cables said.
  • A dangerous standoff with Pakistan over nuclear fuel: Since 2007, the United States has mounted a highly secret effort, so far unsuccessful, to remove from a Pakistani research reactor highly enriched uranium that American officials fear could be diverted for use in an illicit nuclear device. In May 2009, Ambassador Anne W. Patterson reported that Pakistan was refusing to schedule a visit by American technical experts because, as a Pakistani official said, “if the local media got word of the fuel removal, ‘they certainly would portray it as the United States taking Pakistan’s nuclear weapons,’ he argued.”
  • Gaming out an eventual collapse of North Korea: American and South Korean officials have discussed the prospects for a unified Korea, should the North’s economic troubles and political transition lead the state to implode. The South Koreans even considered commercial inducements to China, according to the American ambassador to Seoul. She told Washington in February that South Korean officials believe that the right business deals would “help salve” China’s “concerns about living with a reunified Korea” that is in a “benign alliance” with the United States.
  • Bargaining to empty the Guant&cute;namo Bay prison: When American diplomats pressed other countries to resettle detainees, they became reluctant players in a State Department version of “Let’s Make a Deal.” Slovenia was told to take a prisoner if it wanted to meet with President Obama, while the island nation of Kiribati was offered incentives worth millions of dollars to take in Chinese Muslim detainees, cables from diplomats recounted. The Americans, meanwhile, suggested that accepting more prisoners would be “a low-cost way for Belgium to attain prominence in Europe.”
  • Suspicions of corruption in the Afghan government: When Afghanistan’s vice president visited the United Arab Emirates last year, local authorities working with the Drug Enforcement Administration discovered that he was carrying $52 million in cash. With wry understatement, a cable from the American Embassy in Kabul called the money “a significant amount” that the official, Ahmed Zia Massoud, “was ultimately allowed to keep without revealing the money’s origin or destination.” (Mr. Massoud denies taking any money out of Afghanistan.)

The Guardian has done a great cliff notes summary of some of the key cables after the jump:


Of Fake "Bogeymen" And Artificial "Security"

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 06:15 AM PST


William Buckler, with his Privateer report, once again establishes that in the pantheon of newsletters, he and Kiril Sokoloff are untouchable at the very top. In his latest piece, Buckler deconstructs geopolitics, finance, economics and explains the plutocrats' behavioral modeling in a way fre else seem capable of doing. For anyone confused what all the recent events out of Korea, China, Europe, and the US mean, read the following.

WHAT ARE WE TO WATCH FOR?

Is it not ironic that after nearly two years of international discussions, all supposedly aimed at nurturing the economic “recovery”, the innocent observer of current events is being snowed under trying to keep track of it all? The European “sovereign debt crisis” has once again been pushed to the fore. Dissension in the Fed ranks has been revealed with the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, the one where QE2 was initiated. The Chinese government is threatening price controls while warning their banks that the “quota” of new loans for 2010 has been met already. NATO is actually inviting Russia to join so that they can all point their missiles “somewhere else”. Politicians everywhere are battling to maintain their “authority” while their subjects grow ever more fractious.

Oh, and the two Koreas have decided to lob some shells at each other.

On November 23, surveying the gyrations on world markets in the wake of the Korean shelling(s), one US fund manager was quoted as saying that it was - “A fear day. There’s a tremendous amount of bad news to absorb.”

“Absorbing” The News:

Sadly, this is all that most people have time to do. If one was inclined to watch them, every “developed” nation has 24-hour TV news broadcasts. Those who don’t have such coverage have ready access to those who do. And, of course, the internet never stops. Its advantage is that a lot of the news is neither “official” nor officially approved by those who are intent on making sure that nobody does any more than “absorb” the news.

As a topical example, take the exchange of shelling on the 38th parallel, the border between North and South Korea. This incident took place at 2:30 PM Korean time (half past midnight in Washington DC) on November 23. In the English-speaking press, it was universally reported as a North Korean attack or assault on South Korea. The condemnation was instant, unanimous and choreographed.

What actually happened was this: South Korea was in the middle of a nine-day live-fire exercise by their navy near the “Northern Limit Line”. This is a maritime border drawn by the UN which North Korea does not recognise. Yeonpyeong, the island shelled by the North Koreans, is just south of that line. The North Koreans claimed that as part of their live-fire exercise, South Korea had fired shells into their territory. South Korea denied this, saying they only retaliated after the North began to shell.

This, by the way, is the second similar incident over the past year. The first one never even rated a mention. This one is being called the most serious incident since the end of the Korean War. But when you don’t want people to think about what is REALLY going on, inducing fear is a great ally.

A Small Example Of A Pervasive Situation:

In April 2010, the US and South Korea staged a live-fire exercise 15 miles south of the demilitarised zone. Officials from both the militaries insisted that this was NOT a warning to North Korea. The date of the exercise, which had been planned for months, was the birthday of the founder of North Korea, Kim Il Sung and a national holiday. The US commander, William Graves, had picked the date. When asked about the provocative nature of picking that particular date, he replied, “I didn’t realise it was his birthday until last night, when somebody happened to mention it to me. It is truly a coincidence.”

Transparently ridiculous statements of this nature are par for the course. They are indulged in by the powers that be in every nation on a routine basis. They are blandly offered to the news media and equally blandly and unquestioningly reported. From there, the expectation is that if they are noticed at all, they will be “absorbed” by the great majority as the background noise of modern events.

Clearly, the April exercise itself was designed to provoke North Korea. Clearly, the date chosen was designed to maximise the provocation. This latest “incident”, the North Korean shelling on November 23, came after days of South Korean live-fire naval exercises within a few miles of the border. It also came less than two weeks after the G-20 heads of state summit - held in Seoul, South Korea - broke up in acrimony and disarray. Few global regimes are as reliable as North Korea when it comes to providing a distraction as and when required. And today, distractions are required like never before.

International Crowd Control:

North Korea is one of the very few nations left in the world in which total control over the populace is wielded by the government. It is a one-party military dictatorship whose leadership has been handed down literally from father to son ever since it was created out of the Soviet occupied part of Korea in 1948. It is a creation of the “cold war” and the only nation that remains intact and unchanged almost 20 years after President Reagan’s “Evil Empire” - the USSR and its bloc - collapsed in 1991. If there is a nation on earth in which the people are totally innocent in the actions of their government, that nation is North Korea. It is kept intact by both China and the US for one simple reason. It is a “bogeyman”.

The English term “bogeyman” has its equivalent in almost every language on earth. But whatever the language, it historically defines an imaginary and threatening figure used by parents to frighten children and thus keep them in line. Modern child psychologists stand aghast at such practices. But modern governments don’t bother much with children because they don’t vote or pay taxes or protest too much.

For adults, the role of parental “guidance” has long since devolved to the state. Here, the practices against which our child psychologist protests so vehemently are used routinely. When the adults threaten to get out of line, they are laid on with an ever more indiscriminate trowel. Today, everywhere one looks - whether at relations between nations, economies or international or domestic financial markets - the bogeymen are proliferating as seldom before.

The Ballot Box Rebellion:

Look at any national election anywhere since the formative days of the GFC in early to mid 2007. You will find that the ruling party or coalition has either been defeated or has seen its majority reduced to a wafer-thin margin. That in itself is not seen as a fundamental threat by the establishments in these nations. What they DO see as a threat, though, is the growing tendency to throw out the incumbent regardless of his or her political affiliation. This was seen in Australia where an election in August resulted in a “hung parliament” with independents holding the balance of power. It was seen even more clearly in the November 2 US mid-term elections with the rise of the “Tea party”. In this election, incumbents by the score were summarily turfed out of office. Once this process starts, the next step is to threaten the unelected government - the bureaucracy. And this threatens the parental state itself.

“Security” - Its Purpose And Its Cost:

What is it that all us “children of the state” get in return for being duly terrified at all the bogeymen which are thrust in our face on a continual basis? We get security, of course. We see it everywhere we go. We hear it every time we listen to a political speech or a news broadcast. We read it in everything from financial prospectuses to geo-political analyses. You will be “safe” - if you do what you’re told.

On an actual or physical level, security has a long record. In the lofty realm of political oratory, WWI was fought, according to President Wilson, “to make the world safe for democracy”. On a more mundane level, it was fought to prevent the enemy from tearing the people limb from limb. The Allies reported that German soldiers were cutting off the hands of babies and crucifying non-combatants. The Germans reported that the allies were poisoning German wells with plague germs and putting out the eyes of German captors. The longer the war dragged on, the wilder these (entirely false) claims became.

Nowadays, of course, the actual war is against “terror”. The physical war is in the process of moving from Iraq to Afghanistan. Iran and/or North Korea are being kept in reserve . The psychological war is fought on the home front, mainly by means of terrorising (or attempting to terrorise) the populace. The most obvious example in the US is the recent notoriety of the Transportation Security (there’s that word again) Administration or TSA. It seems that their “security” methods may finally have gone too far.

The TSA was formed after the 9/11 attacks. It is one of many agencies - the Department of Homeland Security is another - created by the government to take advantage of the outrage and fear caused by 9/11. According to the US Congress, the TSA was set up to eliminate the risk of “terrorist attack” while flying. The TSA grew with amazing rapidity, even for a government agency. It began in January 2002 with 13 employees. A year later, it had 65,000 employees. The cost of running the TSA is enormous and the cost in terms of inconvenience, delay and sheer exasperation to the flying public is incalculable. Or is it? With the TSA’s latest deployment of full body scans or as an “alternative”, very invasive “frisking” techniques, the resentment has boiled over. All of a sudden, a growing portion of the public is mad as hell and isn’t going to take it anymore.

There comes a point where the practice of invoking “terror” rebounds upon those who invoke it. True to his character and consistency, Ron Paul introduced legislation titled the “American Traveller Dignity Act” to Congress on November 17. The act is designed to remove the provision of “security” from the government and return it the entities it most effects, the airlines themselves.

Financial “Security”:

After limited success in trying to sell his latest program of monetising government debt, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke went off on a new tangent on November 19. In a speech to the ECB (of all institutions) in Frankfurt, Germany (of all places), Mr Bernanke declared that the term “quantitative easing” as a description of the Fed’s latest policy is “inappropriate”. Mr Bernanke’s preferred substitute was “securities purchases”. How magnificently innocuous. After all, everybody does that, don’t they?

If you have ever bought a debt instrument of any nature or a common or preferred stock, you have indeed bought a “security”. That is and has long been the generic term describing almost any type of paper instrument tradeable on the markets. Even the ones which have long since become worthless are still called “securities”. The message is obvious, intentional and long since been taken for granted.

If you want to be “secure”, buy government approved and regulated “securities”. If you want to be REALLY “safe and secure”, buy government-issued debt paper “securities”. They must be safe. After all, the Fed is officially buying them. Ron Paul has introduced a bill to Congress (which has little if any chance of becoming law) to remove the provision of physical security from the clutches of government.  But entrusting financial security to government is very much more dangerous.

Another “Bogeyman” In Focus:

We are sure you have noticed the resurrection of the European sovereign debt crisis over recent weeks. This new chapter (with Ireland replacing Greece as the villain) has surfaced in the global media and on global markets in the wake of the Fed’s decision to proceed with another round of Treasury debt monetisation. It has led directly to a turnaround in the US Dollar and has put a floor under the faltering secondary market for US Treasury debt paper. It has also deflected attention from the avalanche of condemnation - international and domestic - which greeted Mr Bernanke when QE2 was announced.

It is true that Ireland (like Greece) is a fiscal basket case. It is true that the Irish banking system (like its Greek counterpart) horribly overextended itself in a booming real estate market which has long since gone horribly bust. These things were known well before the global credit freeze of late 2008. They were known when the Irish government took the unprecedented step of guaranteeing ALL the deposits in its banks. They have been known ever since.

So why is the “Irish Card” being played now? A November 22 headline from Bloomberg makes the answer clear: “Treasuries Rally as Moody’s Ireland Outlook Spurs Safety Demand”. The issue here is not that the fiscal and banking mess in Ireland (and in Greece) is not real. It most certainly is. The issue is that this mess is GLOBAL. The more pressing issue is that the nation which has done least, so far, to address the problem is the US, the cornerstone of the global system.

You Can’t Eat IOUs:

When the mainstream media talks about the growing “problem” of government deficit spending, they always focus on nations which are having trouble servicing their debts. The issue of actually “repaying” the debt is seldom mentioned. If it is, it is taken for granted that the debt will be repaid - sometime in the indeterminate and nebulous future. Further, most mainstream media examinations of the fiscal problem facing any particular nation measure the annual deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). What is not pointed out is that the government spending which this borrowing makes possible is a component of that same GDP.

Government spending does not contribute to the creation of wealth in an economy, it inhibits it in direct proportion to the amount of that spending. That is true even when there is no borrowing involved, with the government running a genuinely balanced budget. Government creates no wealth, it simply confiscates it from those who do. The situation deteriorates rapidly when government spending exceeds government “revenue”. The dead weight of government then falls not only on present production but on future production. The higher the debt grows, the further into the future the burden stretches.

Government spending has no place in any measure of REAL economic growth. Government borrowing is the greatest economic threat to REAL economic growth. Once government borrowing is established as a prime component of the statistic (GDP) that purports to “measure” economic growth, then gradual economic impoverishment is assured. Once government borrowing is deemed to be the most important component in re-establishing economic growth, financial collapse is assured.

That is why the European nations have opted for what is called “austerity”. Portugal, the latest nation to be singled out in the sovereign debt crisis, has already cut its deficit almost in half (by 47.3 percent) over the first ten months of 2010 as compared with the equivalent period in 2009. Every other European nation is on the same path. Only in the US are the government and the central bank both clinging to the old economic orthodoxy that it is possible to borrow one’s way to prosperity.

This is the simple fact which makes US Treasury bonds THE most risky investment imaginable at present. And this is the reason why “crises”, both geo-political and financial, are cropping up with increasing regularity everywhere EXCEPT the US. The bogeymen are being worked harder than ever.

This Is Not Rocket Science - It Is Well Understood:

On November 13, the day after the G-20 meeting ended, the UK Telegraph ran an article by Mr Edmund Conway (who we quoted in our previous issue). “For the past few months, the world’s major economies have been sleepwalking their way towards another crisis. ...It isn’t merely that the summit failed to come up with any decent solutions; it failed to diagnose the problem itself. ...the international monetary system has failed and there is no one willing or able to come up with a reconstruction job.”

The problem is recognised. The inability and/or unwillingness of those in political power to tackle it is recognised. The consequences of NOT tackling it are (grudgingly) recognised. But the only genuine way forward (see our previous issue - Number 666) to a REAL solution is dismissed out of hand.

In the same article, Mr Conway again brings up the “Gold standard” as a demonstration of the WRONG way to “fix” the current failure of the international monetary system. His minor objection is that tying one’s money to Gold still leaves one vulnerable to inflation or deflation depending on how much Gold is dug out of the ground in any given year. This is facetious nonsense. The US government alone borrows far more “money” in one year than the present $US value of all the Gold ever mined in history.

More serious, from Mr Conway’s point of view, a “Gold standard” would also mean the end of banking as we know it because Gold circulating as money is incompatible with fractional reserve banking. This is absolutely true. Fractional reserve banking is the practice of lending out a multiple of the “reserves” that a commercial bank keeps with its central bank. It is a universal practice among commercial banks the world over. It is wholly inflationary, being in essence the creation of a multiple of the bank’s deposits out of thin air, that multiple being determined by the central bank’s “reserve ratio”. It was, until the GFC hit, the prime engine of global credit creation.

But the most damning condemnation of a “Gold standard” - according to Mr Conway (and every head of state and central banker in the world) - is that adopting Gold as money would mean that governments could no longer “adjust” interest rates. This is also absolutely true. It is also the second best argument there is why Gold as a circulating international standard money is vital in ANY real solution to the present global financial crisis. Next to their monopoly control of what is used as money, the most pernicious power in the entire arsenal of government intervention is their ability to manipulate interest rates. This is the power which has led directly to the fiscal crises now breaking out worldwide.

What is the best argument as to why Gold should be re-introduced as money? Very simple. Government cannot print it or create it out of thin air by “borrowing” it. Because they cannot do this, their power OVER their people is severely curtailed. Gold circulating as money is an essential bulwark of both economic freedom and political liberty. It deprives government of their means to RULE.

What Do We Have To Watch For?:

The fact is that all the vital components of the modern monetary system, the one Mr Conway says has failed, are listed as sacrosanct. According to the arguments from politicians and the mainstream financial media, certain components must be retained in any “viable” monetary system. Governments must be able to create money out of thin air by borrowing what they do not dare confiscate. The commercial banks must be able to create money out of thin air by lending out a multiple of the money entrusted to them by depositors. Central banks must be able to create money out of thin air by manipulating interest rates so that existing borrowers can service their debts and new borrowers can be induced to go into debt. Whatever new system emerges must retain all the essential features of the present system.

As long as that “argument” lasts, the situation will get worse and the bogeymen will proliferate. This will go on as long as the rest of the world continues to cling to the US as the “heart” of the existing system. How long is that? That’s what we have to watch for.

As always, there is much more thought provoking and extrmely insightful content in Bill Buckler's periodic newsletter which we can not recommend enough.

 


For all seasons. . . . .

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 03:16 AM PST

As we progress to the close of another weekend, concerned about another country — this time Ireland — and its ultimate economic fate, we must consider what is in store for us here in the United States.

I had to scratch my head when an Irish politician was quoted the other day as saying that Ireland would not give up a favorable corporate tax rate because it would be a threat Irish sovereignty. Ireland surrendered its sovereignty long ago when it signed-on to the euro as its domestic currency. Now others are imposing their brand of economic sanctions and the Irish people have taken to the streets to oppose the coming austerity measures. Thousands, if not millions, are about to lose their jobs as the knock-on effect moves through the economy. The austerity is not self-imposed, as it is in Britain. It is imposed from on high — the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.

Here in the United States such measures cannot be imposed from outside. If they are going to come, they are going to come from inside — from ourselves. But that is not the direction the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken. The United States remains economically sovereign. It still issues its own currency and if it chooses to attempt printing its way out of its version of the financial panic, no one can stop it. And that is the direction the United States has taken.

How that will all end remains to be seen. University of Texas professor, James K. Galbraith warns that "We're likely go see a situation that makes people angry and miserable for years." We could experience the same disinflationary malaise in which we find ourselves today. The malaise could escalate to hyper-stagflation, or flip to hyperinflation, or kick the country into a delflationary breakdown.

We just don't know.

It is with these considerations in mind that I wrote "Black Swans Yellow Gold" — an article now featured in a Special Edition of our newsletter News, Commentary and Analysis. The point of the article is that gold historically has proven itself an effective hedge against any of those possibilities and no matter in which order they arrive.

There is no charge for the newsletter.


Gold Hump Shifting from Diwali to Xin Nian

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:47 AM PST

Bullion Vault


Dear Len, don't bother suing JPM. Buy Silver with the 900 mn. you have left and help bankrupt them

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:21 AM PST

Blavatnik's JPMorgan Suit to Move Forward After Ruling Share this:


In fact, since the U.S. went off Gold standard and “Friedmanism” was adopted; global poverty rates have doubled

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:06 AM PST

Global poverty doubled since 1970s: UN Share this:


Technically Precious with Merv For Week Ending 26 November 2010

Posted: 28 Nov 2010 02:06 AM PST

Gold continues to act as one would expect when tracing out a bearish head and shoulder pattern. It's not finished yet and may not but it does require careful attention over the next week or so.

Read More...


Technically Precious with Merv

Posted: 27 Nov 2010 06:00 PM PST

Gold continues to act as one would expect when tracing out a bearish head and shoulder pattern. It's not finished yet and may not but it does require careful attention over the next week or so.


Remonetization of Silver: At What Price?

Posted: 27 Nov 2010 12:00 PM PST

Many doubt that silver will ever play a role as a reserve asset, or that any silver will ever reappear in coin form. Many in the gold community also seem to doubt the ability of average people to take an avid interest in accumulating even a small...


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