Gold World News Flash |
- 5. Global Rush to Buy Gold & Silver - Why Gold And Silver
- GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Robert Kiyosaki & Chris Waltzek
- Insights into the Peruvian Market
- Doubling the Value of Silver
- Sometimes Everyone Simply Gets It Wrong
- How High Will Gold Go This Fall?
- The Price of Gold
- Gold Confiscation: Straws in the Wind
- Learn How Butterflies Can Create Profits When Trading GLD
- SP500 & Gold At Crucial Pivot Points
- Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
- The End Of Securitized Mortgage Debt
- Jim?s Mailbox
- In The News Today
- Daily Dispatch: The Future of Facebook
- Debates on Inflation & Gold Prices
- Alberto Arispe: Insights into the Peruvian Market
- Gold Stock Tactics: The GDX Sanity Chart
- Mickey Fulp: Hard Rock Geologist
- A Really Bad Day
- Alan Greenspan and the Effects of “Creating More”
- Free trial offer from Gold Stock Trades
- Slim Pickings
- NioGold Mining Corp. TSX.V - NOX
- Institutional Money Hasn’t Participated in Recent Gold Advance
- Brazil Cancels Participation In Upcoming G20 Meeting
- The Golden Bubble... Inflation Doesn't Exist?
- LGMR: Gold Hits 2-Week Low as Dollar & Yen Push Higher
- The Height Of Nonsense
- Gold Tanks; 1325 Potential Support
- The Gold basis is Dead - Long Live the Gold Basis!
- So Much For Gold! Chinese Stock Market to Outperform!
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 3%
- “The Great Dollar Devaluation Disaster” is Only Just Beginning – and the Intended Victim is YOU!
- Nicholas Colas Laments The Passage Of The Stock Market, Blames High Frequency Trading And The Federal Reserve
- Financial system's mountain of crap hasn't disappeared, Sinclair tells King World News
- Financial system's mountain of crap hasn't disappeared, Sinclair tells King World News
- The Aussie Gets the High-low
- Jim's Mailbox
| 5. Global Rush to Buy Gold & Silver - Why Gold And Silver Posted: 19 Oct 2010 07:19 PM PDT
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| GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Robert Kiyosaki & Chris Waltzek Posted: 19 Oct 2010 07:00 PM PDT GoldSeek.com Radio Gold Nugget: Robert Kiyosaki & Chris Waltzek
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| Insights into the Peruvian Market Posted: 19 Oct 2010 06:03 PM PDT Mining is big in Latin America. The mining sector represents the lion's share of the main Peruvian indexes, and Chile and Argentina have significant mining operations as well. Kallpa Securities CEO Alberto Arispe talked exclusively with The Gold Report about the prospects of Peru, Chile and Argentina trading under a single exchange and what that might mean for the future of mine financing and investment opportunities.
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 06:02 PM PDT With gold and silver going up in price like they are, I spend a lot of time secluded in the Big Mogambo Bunker (BMB), greedily calculating my profit with each little up-tick in price. I am so delighted that I alternate between, on the one hand, happily dreaming of happier days to come when silver and gold have gone up so much in the roaring inflation caused by the Federal Reserve creating so much money that...
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| Sometimes Everyone Simply Gets It Wrong Posted: 19 Oct 2010 06:01 PM PDT Let's see if we understand yesterday's earth-rumbling response to China's 25 basis-point increase in a yuan lending rate. For starters, the dollar had its biggest one-day rally since August (which rally went nowhere, to remind you; the dollar wafted slightly higher, then scuddled sideways for nearly a month before resuming its long-term bear market). Another effect of China's decidedly un-momentous change, which supposedly was aimed at damping real estate speculation and inflation, was that bullion had its worst day in recent memory.
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| How High Will Gold Go This Fall? Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:59 PM PDT By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey's Gold & Resource Report The gold price has been hitting ever-new records over the past couple weeks, now closing in on the $1,300 mark. Some gold followers are saying this is extremely bullish for the near-term price since it broke so decisively through its June 28th high of $1,261. If [...]
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:59 PM PDT Today we are going to be looking at gold and analyze the recent run-up that has created a great deal of excitement and fear for many investors and traders. We're also going to be looking at some upside measurements that we have for this market. Conversely, we are also looking at an area that should provide [...]
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| Gold Confiscation: Straws in the Wind Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:59 PM PDT by David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research In the emails that our readers at Casey Research send our way, questions and concerns about the possibility of gold confiscation rank high. My somewhat standard response is that, yes, it's possible, but that we should see straws in the wind well before it happened… allowing us to take measures [...]
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| Learn How Butterflies Can Create Profits When Trading GLD Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:59 PM PDT In recent articles, we discussed that Theta (Time Decay) has the potential to cause option prices to decline dramatically, particularly in the final weeks leading up to option expiration. As it turns out, we are now in that very period of time and option strategies that utilize Theta (time) decay as their profit engine can [...]
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| SP500 & Gold At Crucial Pivot Points Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:59 PM PDT Wednesday was a big session with better than expected manufacturing surging the market 3%. In this article I will do a quick technical take on the current situation for the SP500 and gold as they are both trading at a key resistance level. also its important to know what type of price action we will [...]
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| Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 19, 2010 10:00 AM Dear CIGAs, News overnight that China's Central Bank had raised interest rates (the first move in almost 3 years and a piddly .25% at that) in an attempt to curtail inflationary pressures developing in its economy (particularly property values) sent the foreign exchange and commodity markets into a tizzy. Apparently China trumps the Fed's QE. Maybe this is sort of like the childhood game, rock, paper, scissors. Let's see – paper covers rock (that would be the Fed's paper) but scissors ( that would be China's attempt to contain inflation) cut paper. I am still attempting to get it through my rather dense skull how this is supposed to cause investors to rush into the "safe haven" of the Dollar as "investors fear a slowdown in the global economy, especially in the emerging markets", to quote the wire services. On the other hand, I give up – there is no connection. As I have stated on many occasions, the two phrases; ...
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| The End Of Securitized Mortgage Debt Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 19, 2010 11:40 AM My Dear Friends, It is apparently above the head of most of the sheeple, but today the majority of OTC derivatives known as securitized mortgage debt ended. The presence of the NY Fed in this potential litigation says that the Fed is holding paper which does not qualify for holding according to its own indenture. This is the end of the majority of a pile of garbage two trillion dollars high. This is one of the best reasons to own gold, regardless of the mindless actions of algorithms impacting price today. The New York Fed, Pimco and others threaten litigation via demand letters to force the Bank of America to buy back $47 billion in OTC derivatives known as securitized mortgage debt. Because the OTC derivative cannot stand the light of day in court, a demand letter is a powerful first tool. Respectfully, Jim...
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 19, 2010 05:39 PM Jim, My head is spinning. Didn’t this guy say the opposite earlier today? CIGA BJS Geithner Weak Dollar Seen as U.S. Recovery Route Versus BRICs By Ian Katz and Simon Kennedy – Oct 19, 2010 1:27 AM PT Tue Oct 19 08:27:42 GMT 2010 For U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, a weaker dollar may now be in the national interest. The dollar has dropped more than 7 percent since Aug. 27, when Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the Federal Reserve is prepared to ease monetary policy. Where once such a decline may have been met with resistance from the U.S., Geithner may now be tolerating it as a way of bolstering the recovery. Companies from Costco Wholesale Corp. to Deere & Co. have credited the weaker dollar for giving their earnings a boost, and the currency's slide has helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 11,000 for the first time since May. Higher stock prices in turn are b...
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 19, 2010 07:05 PM Jim Sinclair's Commentary Eric King of King World News was kind enough to interview me on today's events. Click here to listen to the interview… Jim Sinclair – Brief Period of Victory for Bubble Callers: With the move down in the gold market today, King World News interviewed the legendary Jim Sinclair to get his thoughts on where things stand. Many investors are badly shaken by a day like today, but Jim and I spent large chunks of our conversation laughing today as we swapped market war stories. Here is what was left that was suitable for print from that interview… We had a big drop in sentiment in gold today. What's funny Jim is that the sentiment today is the same as it was $400 or $500 dollars ago. You have investors and traders in gold that are still very afraid, and at the slightest hiccup in the market their fear escalates. Because of that would you say we ha...
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| Daily Dispatch: The Future of Facebook Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT October 19, 2010 | www.CaseyResearch.com The Future of Facebook (Vedran Vuk filling in for David Galland) Dear Reader, China’s interest rate hike seems to be shaking up global markets today. Geithner kept begging the Chinese to raise rates, and then they raised rates when no one expected it. As a result the market has tumbled, and the dollar has appreciated against the euro to $1.374. The irony is that the Obama administration pressured China to raise rates in order to help domestic exports and the unemployment situation. But as a result of the interest rate hike, the dollar actually strengthened against other currencies. In turn, exports will be negatively affected. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for.” And now on to some other thoughts… The Future of Facebook Facebook will certainly be talked about in business books for a long time, but will it be the endless growth story ...
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| Debates on Inflation & Gold Prices Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT (A Helpful Discussion!) Silver Stock Report by Jason Hommel, October 17th, 2010 Through debate, we all get the chance to see more clearly, and understand better who is right, and what the truth may actually be. 1 Corinthians 11:19 For there must be also heresies among you, that they which are approved may be made manifest among you. Proverbs 9:8 Reprove not a scorner, lest he hate thee: rebuke a wise man, and he will love thee. A critic responds to my latest article: Today: Low Inflation = Massive Gold Rise! http://silverstockreport.com/2010/inflation-massive.html Jason, Were you born with insufficient gray matter or was this an acquired characteristic? Your "thinking" is so flawed, it is far beyond funny. michael I replied to michael with: Your insult would count if it contained reason, but absent that, it's static noise. Michael replied respectfully with a long discussion of many points. I'm posting Michael's letter twice. First, I'm copying M...
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| Alberto Arispe: Insights into the Peruvian Market Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT Source: Karen Roche of The Gold Report 10/18/2010 Mining is big in Latin America. The mining sector represents the lion's share of the main Peruvian indexes, and Chile and Argentina have significant mining operations as well. Kallpa Securities CEO Alberto Arispe talked exclusively with The Gold Report about some of the most promising small-cap plays in the area and the prospects of Peru, Chile and Argentina trading under a single exchange and what that might mean for the future of mine financing and investment opportunities. The Gold Report: Why did you choose to specialize in the mining industry? Alberto Arispe: It's not so much that I chose to be in the mining sector; it's that here in the Lima market you have to be in the mining sector. Peru is a mining country. The mining industry is around 15% of the Peruvian GDP. On the Lima Stock Exchange, mining stocks comprise between 60% to 65% of the main Peruvian indexes, a very high percentage compared to other exchang...
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| Gold Stock Tactics: The GDX Sanity Chart Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT Stewart Thomson email: [EMAIL="stewart@gracelandupdates.com"]stewart@gracelandupdates.com[/EMAIL] Oct 19, 2010 1. Do you want to make serious money in the gold market? The large money in gold over the next 12 months is going to be made in gold stocks. 2. Gold bullion at $1000 back in 2008 on the first touching of that key plateau was not the same "gold stock rocket fuel" that it is now. 3. The world view of Gold has changed since 2008. Many of the mining companies have moved forward with their projects, advancing them roughly on target. 4. September/October is not only Indian Jewellery demand season; it is drill results season. It has been a magnificent August and September for Gold Junior stocks. 5. If you have difficultly differentiating between gold stock core positions and gold stock trading positions, I urge you to consider using multiple brokerage accounts to create a clear segregation of those items. Send me an email to [EMAIL="stewart@...
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| Mickey Fulp: Hard Rock Geologist Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT Source: Karen Roche of The Energy Report 10/19/2010 Some analysts talk the talk, but Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp walks the walk and kicks the rocks to find undervalued mining stocks. In this exclusive interview with The Energy Report, Mickey forecasts a continuing uptrend in the uranium price and weeds out the true rare earth contenders in a market full of pretenders. The Energy Report: The media is abuzz about energy, but it seems none of the individual energy sectors is really breaking out. What's your take on the energy sector as a whole? Mickey Fulp: Well, here's what I know—oil is currently undervalued with respect to gold. Historically, you could buy 12 barrels of oil for 1 ounce of gold. Right now, that ratio is above 16. I think gold is being driven solely by speculation, and I expect a pullback. Gas is severely depressed with respect to oil. Historically speaking, the oil:gas price ratio should be around 6:1. Right now, it's about 23:1. You c...
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast October 19, 2010 12:35 PM by Addison Wiggin [LIST] [*]Iraqi prime minister's balancing act... Prelude to much higher oil prices [*]Here we go... Dollar up, everything else down... The 5 unpacks why [*]Power grid overdue for massive upgrade... and the technology that'll make farseeing investors rich [*]World's worst tourism gimmick: Vinegar-chugging contest [*]Readers go toe-to-toe over the "e-word" – entitlements [/LIST] No matter how bad a day you’re having, it’s probably not as bad as the day Nouri al-Maliki is having. Maliki is the prime minister of Iraq. He wants very much to remain prime minister of Iraq, but he’s having trouble forming a coalition that can make up a majority of parliament. He’s been trying ever since indecisive elections last March -- seven months ago -- a world record, the BBC reckons. You knew the job was dangerous when you took it… On a visit to Teh...
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| Alan Greenspan and the Effects of “Creating More” Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:03 PM PDT Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S. sent me a link to an article in The Economist titled "Let's Get Fiscal," which is an obvious reference to the song "Let's get physical," which is not about, as I originally thought, how you should be holding a lot of physical gold and silver before you start investing in the paper world of ETFs. The subhead was "Effective tax rates," with the teaser, "Which government takes the biggest bite out of an income of $100,000?" "Hmm!" I think to myself. "Government taxes compared to government taxes? Hahaha! Well, I hear a lot of reports that tax evasion in many places around the world is rampant, and in some places it is a matter of historical pride. Therefore a lot of income for many people is, effectively, tax-free. "This means that one guy being taxed at 100% and 99 people evading taxes would result in an effective tax rate of 1%! Hahaha!" Well, The Economist magazine did not like my little statistical joke, and without ever mentioning it, or me, ag...
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| Free trial offer from Gold Stock Trades Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 19, 2010 12:06 PM Peter is travelling this afternoon, but asked me to post this sample premium report from Jeb Handwerger of Gold Stock Trades. He suggests you take Jeb up on his offer of a free 30-day trial. For more information, go to goldstocktrades.com * Gold Stock Trades Mining for Winners In ANY Market Jeb Handwerger October 17, 2010 * U.S. Dollar About To Bounce, Higher Interest Rates Threaten * ********* Important developments are taking place in Precious Metals, The U.S. Dollar and long term U.S. Debt that need to be monitored closely.* On Friday, Ben Bernanke spoke and the markets reaction was very bullish for the dollar.* The U.S. dollar ETF gapped lower during the week, then closed the gap through an outside bar reversal on the largest upside volume since the beginning of the decline in June.* This outside bar revers...
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 19, 2010 08:04 AM With the expectation that the general stock market is within a few hundred points of an important top and the metals going through a needed and healthy correction and consolidation, I find very few attractive situations (I’ve removed many positions from my Tracking List). However one situation I’m personally eying is Timmins Gold (TMM-TSX-V). With all the biases and potential conflicts of interest due to my working relationship with the company, I’m personally considering taking a significant position in the stock on any further significant pullback (There’s no assurance I will but it will be noted in my holdings if and when I do) Timmins Gold managed to go from explorer to emerging producer during one of the world’s biggest financial nightmares. It has a “ton” of exploratio...
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| NioGold Mining Corp. TSX.V - NOX Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT Richard (Rick) Mills Ahead of the Herd As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information The adjoining Cadillac-Malartic-Val-d'Or gold camps have produced 45M oz gold with more than 50 previous producing mines and 7 currently operating mines. Since 2006 drilling (45,000 m) and historical data compilation on the Marban Block property has proven up Indicated resources of 598,000 ounces gold in addition to Inferred resources of 361,000 ounces gold. The projects are located close to the full-service mining towns of Val-d’Or and Malartic. There is easy access to gold milling facilities, a provincial highway, railroad, power lines, telecommunication systems and an experienced labor force. Having all the necessary infrastructure and a trained skilled workforce nearby facilitates cost effective exploration and development. Quebec is consistently ranked as one of the best places to explore for and develop ...
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| Institutional Money Hasn’t Participated in Recent Gold Advance Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT In regards to technical analysis, we usually discuss (in our public commentaries) price patterns, intermarket relationships and sentiment. I can’t remember I wrote something about volume. This may be the first. Volume can be interpreted in a number of ways which can make it less reliable in my opinion. However, in today’s commentary we want to make an observation based on volume. The precious metals sector has had a strong run in the past few months. Particularly, the juniors and Silver have showed the most strength. Gold and the large cap gold stocks have been laggards. Consider that fact and the volume patterns in GLD and GDX and we have to believe that the big money hasn’t participated in this recent (last two months) advance. Below is a chart of GLD. I highlight the action of the past few months. Note how low the volume is relative to the past two years. The volume moving average isn’t even close to its highs in the past two years. Me...
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| Brazil Cancels Participation In Upcoming G20 Meeting Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT "South Korea's Central Bank looks at buying gold. Should Germany worry about leaving its gold in the U.S.? U.S. will not engage in dollar devaluation: Geithner. Pierre Lassonde says that strong forces are propelling gold. An interview with Eric Sprott... and much, much more. " Yesterday in Gold and Silver Gold was under pressure right from the open in Far East trading on Monday morning. You can see where the bids disappeared a couple of times... once shortly after 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time... and the second was at 9:00 a.m. in London. From that London low, gold rose in fits and starts until its high [$1,376.10 spot] at 4:00 p.m. in electronic trading in New York. From that high, gold sold off about five bucks into the close. Silver also ran into selling at the Far East open on Monday morning... with the bid being pulled at 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time... just like gold. Silver's low of the day was around lunchtime in Honk Kong and, in fits and starts, si...
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| The Golden Bubble... Inflation Doesn't Exist? Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT The Golden Bubble Tuesday, October 19, 2010 – by Staff Report Few silver linings when gold bubble bursts ... Beware of bubbles. Tulips, the dotcom boom and pre-credit crunch real estate have a lot in common; they are assets that were in vogue, became overbought and eventually fell to earth. And now it's gold. Historically, two-thirds of gold demand comes from the jewellery industry and from countries like India and China. The remaining industry and from countries like India and China. The remaining demand is generated by investors, manufacturing and the dental industry. But over the last four years, gold has staged a spectacular price rise and won many new investors. Everyone from hedge funds to individuals has jumped in, seeing gold as a way to improve portfolio diversification. Today portfolios often allocate 5 per cent or more to gold. A decade ago such an allocation in sound investment circles would have been heresy. Market dynamics have change...
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| LGMR: Gold Hits 2-Week Low as Dollar & Yen Push Higher Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 08:55 ET, Tues 19 Oct. Gold Hits 2-Week Low as Dollar & Yen Push Higher, "Deluge" of Central Bankers Speak GOLD PRICES fell Tuesday lunchtime in London, unwinding an earlier rise made against all currencies bar the US Dollar and Japanese Yen, which then knocked gold bullion back to two-week lows at $1345 per ounce and ¥3530 per gram respectively. European stock markets also slipped, while US crude oil fell back below $82 per barrel. Silver prices dropped below $24 per ounce for the second day running. "A deluge of monetary policy makers give their opinions on the economy this afternoon," notes one London gold dealer in a note, as the European Central Bank hosts a conference in Frankfurt, with speeches from ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet, Bundesbank president Axel Weber, and new US Fed voting member Janet Yellen. Bank of England governor Mervyn King is on a tour of England's West Midlands manufacturing district...
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 19, 2010 07:18 AM Dear CIGAs, Today is the height of nonsense for those that understand what is in fact taking place. The .25 increase in Chinese money costs are symbolic and their use of MOPE. The following statement by the US Treasury is simply an answer to China's position that the US is involved in more than benign neglect in the collapse of the dollar rally. Gold is going to and through $1650. Today is just another day of drama in gold, full of noise and fury signifying nothing whatsoever in terms of the trend. US Treasury chief Timothy Geithner says America will not engage in dollar devaluation CIGA Eric Anyone dressing (and playing the part) as a mindless zombie for Halloween should probably read the following quote. It will help get into character later this month. "It is very important for people to understand that the United States of America and no country around the world can devalue its way to prosperity...
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| Gold Tanks; 1325 Potential Support Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:02 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com October 19, 2010 06:16 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold has tanked after spending a few days above its channel. Initial support is from former lows and the 21 day SMA near 1325. We cannot proclaim the end to the gold bull move yet. An impulsive decline on intraday charts would indicate as much however....
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| The Gold basis is Dead - Long Live the Gold Basis! Posted: 19 Oct 2010 05:00 PM PDT
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| So Much For Gold! Chinese Stock Market to Outperform! Posted: 19 Oct 2010 04:32 PM PDT
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 3% Posted: 19 Oct 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold traded just slightly lower in Asia, saw about 1% losses in London, and fell as much as $39.10 to $1332.30 by about 9:30AM EST in New York before it rallied back higher for a bit, but it then fell back off again in afternoon trade and ended with a loss of 2.58%. Silver fell as much as $0.98 to as low as $23.42 before it also rallied back higher in late morning trade, but it still ended with a loss of 2.79%.
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 03:53 PM PDT The handwriting is on the wall: This great dollar disaster is only just beginning. Obama and Bernanke have no choice. Either they dramatically devalue the dollar over the next three years, or they go down in history as the first administration to default — to welch on the government's debt obligations. Words: 2120
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 03:45 PM PDT
In the movie Terminator, various faceless machines, and one especially murderous one almost caused the end of the world. In an ironic twist of life imitating art, the very core premise of our capital markets - the effective allocation of capital to worthy assets on the basis of solid fundamental analysis (and yes, "information arbitrage") is on the verge of being eliminated by the same combination of forces: millions of faceless, anonymous algos, and one destructive endoskeletal machine. Remember: Ben Bernanke is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until both the middle class, and the dollar, are dead. As ever more carbon-based investors withdraw from stocks, the feedback loop of leaving more and more stock churning and, thus noise creation, in the hands of assorted computer algorithms becomes progressively more acute. And as the only market participants will soon be High Frequency Traders, very soon the whole concept of fundamental analysis will be unrooted at its core, in essence making capital markets, in their traditional sense of allocating scarce capital to innovative, efficient, and high ROI ideas, obsolete and redundant. Yet instead of giving up, perhaps it is our duty, in a very peculiar case of art imitating art, or in this case the movie Terminator, to redeem the freedom of capital markets from the machines. This is precisely the point of Nicholas Colas' latest essay, in which he observes that "HFT exists among all market capitalizations, from micro cap to the largest of names in the S&P 500. The smaller end of the cap spectrum, however, has far more potential growth associated with it. Somewhere among these companies sits the “next big thing” that is currently undervalued. HFT strategies are unlikely to find these opportunities; human analysts have a much better chance if they can separate the proverbial wheat from the chaff." Colas' fundamental argument relies on the premise that "one of the outcomes of a heavily HFT focused capital market seems to be lower-than-normal P/E ratios" - we disagree, and we have demonstrated repeatedly that algorithms have an upward trending momentum bias in which self-sustaining fractal feedback loops create a micro pyramid scheme, in which incremental losses are compensated by millions of daily liquidity rebates, rendering the risk return profile of a top ticking event moot. What is troubling is that Colas himself acknowledges this possibility: "if we don’t see more private equity transactions or small cap outperformance, it may well be because the dynamics of HFT trading domination is actually overstating real values." This is correct: courtesy of HFTs stocks are now far overvalued, as seen by the scarcity of MBO, LBO, IPOs, and various other M&A types of events. But worst of all is the realization that this is not just HFT that is to blame for the death of fundamental analysis: another culprit is Ben Bernanke himself: "the Federal Reserve’s monetary stimulus and essentially zero interest rate policy clearly has a role in asset allocation. When bonds pay very little, money flows into stocks and given the popularity of index-based investment products this also has the effect of allocating capital on other than fundamental terms." In other words, computers and the Fed have now destroyed the stock market. Colas is of the opinion, that Private Equity, long a staple of true information arbitrage will lead the way to a return to true fundamental value. Perhaps - but is that what is truly needed? And is that an example of information arbitrage at its truly best? While it is admirable to believe that PE investors sniff out value, especially in the form of upstream dividending cash flows, they do so at the expense of the business model, the employees, and sucking a firm's assets dry. We are confident that should Nicholas analyze the incidence of default within a 5 year horizon of companies being taken private, he will change his view. In the meantime, here is his always insightful and stimulating opinion.
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| Financial system's mountain of crap hasn't disappeared, Sinclair tells King World News Posted: 19 Oct 2010 03:01 PM PDT 11p ET Tuesday, October 19, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: King World News has posted excerpts of a conversation today between Eric King and gold trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair, who says today's fall in the precious metals means nothing amid the big picture, which includes "a $2 trillion mountain of crap called securitized debt." The conversation is headlined "Jim Sinclair -- Brief Period of Victory for Bubble Callers" and you can find it at King World News here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/10/19_J... Or try this abbreviated link: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth Join GATA here: The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there. For the company's complete announcement, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php
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| Financial system's mountain of crap hasn't disappeared, Sinclair tells King World News Posted: 19 Oct 2010 03:01 PM PDT 11p ET Tuesday, October 19, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: King World News has posted excerpts of a conversation today between Eric King and gold trader and mining entrepreneur Jim Sinclair, who says today's fall in the precious metals means nothing amid the big picture, which includes "a $2 trillion mountain of crap called securitized debt." The conversation is headlined "Jim Sinclair -- Brief Period of Victory for Bubble Callers" and you can find it at King World News here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/10/19_J... Or try this abbreviated link: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth Join GATA here: The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there. For the company's complete announcement, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 02:56 PM PDT Ouch both times. Aussie stocks got hit by the old "high-low" overnight. The "high-low" is a gridiron technique where one man tackles you high and the other tackles you low. The net result is that you get smashed. Granted, a four percent decline in the Aussie dollar versus the greenback doesn't quite constitute a smashing. How bad, then, is the double-helping of unsettling news? First China. The People's Bank of China raised interest rates for the first time in three years. It wasn't a big hike. One year lending rates were raised to 5.56% from 5.31%. But it was enough to remind markets that demand for Aussie commodities depends on China's continued expansion; an expansion largely fuelled by bank lending and fixed capital (real estate and infrastructure) investment. Rate hikes...increased reserve ratios...you get the idea that China's central bankers are on bubble alert. That was probably enough to spook some traders to take profits in the raging Aussie dollar. But in our view the bigger factor on the Aussie came from America overnight. The mortgage crisis is becoming a big stink ball. The Dow fell by nearly 1.5% points and below 11,000. Gold fell. And the banks stocks fell. Especially Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), which fell by almost five percent. Why? The news came near the close of the market, and it was menacing. Bank of America is being cornered by investors in its securitised mortgages to buy them back. "Pacific Investment Management Co., BlackRock Inc. and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are seeking to force Bank of America Corp. to repurchase soured mortgages packaged into $47 billion of bonds by its Countrywide Financial Corp. unit, people familiar with the matter said," leads the Bloomberg story. Uh oh. Investors in mortgage securities are playing their hand now (presumably to get something out of BAC before something worse happens to the band and its nationalised because it's too big to fail). The investors are claiming that the bonds, originally issued by Countrywide Financial, which Bank of America acquired, have not been serviced properly. This is largely a legal claim. And that was made clear when Kathy Patrick, a lawyer representing the bond holders, appeared on CNBC later in the day and said, "We want to enforce the holders' contract rights...Today's action begins the clock ticking ... If these issues of non-performance are not addressed and cured, then our clients will be able to enforce their rights in court." "There were representations made to my bond holders when they purchased these securities. They are contractual representations about the credit quality of these mortgages...and my clients are concerned that the mortgages in question did not, at the time they were securitized, conform to those representations." That sounds like a fancy way for the bondholders to tell Bank of America, "You lie!" For its part, Bank of America says it can't be blamed for a lousy economy and deadbeat borrowers. But the vultures are already circulating and figuring out how much all this is going to cost the company. And remember, what's true for this bank if probably true for three or four other major American banks that sold (or bought companies that sold) hundreds of billions of dollars worth of securitised mortgage. What's perplexing is why the New York Fed is putting the screws to BAC. Normally, the Fed's job is to find a home for troubled bank assets and prevent a crisis at any one large firm (except for Lehman, which everyone in New York hated for not participating in the LTCM bailout). Granted, the NY Fed owns some of the securities in question. But would it really take action that could produce a crisis in a major bank? Probably not. We agree with our colleague Kris Sayce on this one. First, the current political environment suggests that the major banks are simply too big to fail. It could be the Fed is trying to soften up the banks for a GM-style takeover by making them appear evil/weak/incompetent. It could also be a kind of Fed False Flag operation. A false flag operation is an action carried out by one entity (a government) but designed to look like another entity (a foreign government) actually carried it out. It's a way of ginning up anger towards someone you want to attack anyway. In this scenario, the New York fed would precipitate a low-level crisis in the mortgage market before a full-blown crisis emerges (as it surely will, if the claims are taken to court). This creates the rationale for the Fed itself to purchase said mortgage securities, make investors whole, and once and for all purge the mortgage problem from the balance sheet of major banks. And oh by the way that would cost a lot of money, which just so happens to coincide with the Fed's plan to print a lot of money via QE!! Maybe, then, the Bank of America action by the New York Fed is the scouting party for the Quantitative Easing invasion from Big Ben that we've all been waiting for. Are those helicopters we hear? What does it mean, though, for Aussie stocks and the Aussie dollar? Here's what we said about the immediate future last Friday, in our weekly update to Australian Wealth Gameplan readers:
Mind you it's incredibly strange that screaming red indicators of serious weakness in America's financial system should be, of all things, [U.S.] dollar bullish. But the important point to remember is that the "risk trade" that has powered Aussie shares and commodities higher will be off the boil on renewed worries about the health of the U.S. financial system. The world will suddenly appear a lot riskier to traders and that should lead them pull in their head a bit on commodity prices (which are already looking toppy). This doesn't mean I'm a long-term dollar bull (far from it). But look for a reversal soon, probably next week. And then, the next phase...the actual quantitative easing from the Fed and the escalation of the mortgage foreclosure crisis. This latter event threatens to blow an iceberg sized-hole in the hull of the American financial system, requiring another Federal bailout of trillions of dollars that America doesn't have. This will be the death blow not just for the dollar standard but for the Bretton Woods two system of floating exchange rates. Gold will move up against all paper in that world. And it's coming sooner than you might think. Based on that prediction, we're still in the first phase of effects, where the "risk trade" reverses and stock and commodity prices fall, along with the Aussie dollar. Our guess is that faster and further the market falls, the easier it is for the Fed to make the case for Quantitative Easing. There will be a lot less resistance after another mini-crisis/market fall. It's a clever tactic. You can allay the fear that Quantitative Easing II is hyperinflationary by engineering a crisis in which investors lose a few hundred billion dollars in a matter of days. A 10% correction in stocks and commodities puts the market at a lower base from which QE II can begin. It also neutralises the price signals commodities are otherwise screaming to prudent investors (inflation dead ahead!). But maybe we are being a bit too conspiratorial about everything. The banking cartel that runs America's money would never manipulate the market like that, would it? Embedded in our analysis is that the recent strength of the Aussie dollar is only relative. That is, the local currency has become the plaything of the moment for U.S. dollar bears seeking yield. When the dollar bears take profits, the short-term gains in the Aussie will reverse too, even if the RBA raises rates on Melbourne Cup Day. This is probably bullish for the Australian price of a certain yellow metal that lives at number 79 on the periodic table of elements. But don't forget number 47 either! That's silver. According to another Bloomberg story, "Silver exports from China, the world's largest, may drop about 40 percent this year as domestic demand from industry and investors climbs, according to Beijing Antaike Information Development Co." "Customs data show exports plunged almost 60 percent to 970 tons in the first eight months. Cancellation of an export rebate in 2008 is also hurting shipments...Reduced exports may bolster prices that are trading near a 30-year high on speculation that governments worldwide will take further steps to stimulate their economies, weakening currencies and increasing demand for assets that are a store of value. China, the third-largest producer after Peru and Mexico, revoked export rebates in August 2008 to curb use of natural resources." China taketh away credit...and silver and rare earth exports. That's a whole lot of hoarding going on. Of course, China can't "put back" nasty American Treasury debt to the U.S. Treasury the way investors can "put back" mortgage debt to banks. It appears to be doing the next best thing, buying and accumulating real metals of real value. Dan Denning
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| Posted: 19 Oct 2010 01:39 PM PDT Jim, The Defense National Stockpile Center has been SELLING OFF its strategic metals since 1992. Stockpiles actively sold off include Germanium (REE). All of the strategic silver has long since been sold off (I have a few hundred 1 ounce rounds of silver from the "U.S. Strategic Stockpile"). CIGA Rusty Bayonnet Defense National Stockpile Center The Defense National Stockpile Center is a field activity of the Defense Logistics Agency and has 11 staffed depots and 66 unstaffed depots worldwide. DNSC stores over 80 commodities with a market value of approximately $5 billion. Since 1992, they have generated over $2.2 billion in sales which goes back into military readiness accounts. The staffed depots are located in Scotia, N.Y.; Binghamton, N.Y.; Somerville, N.J.; Curtis Bay, Md.; Point Pleasant, W.Va.; Warren, Ohio; New Haven, Ind.; Hammond, Ind.; Baton Rouge, La.; Clearfield, Utah; and Stockton, Calif. In 1997 the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) began realigning designated missions and personnel to enduring DLA activities pursuant to recommendations by the BRAC Commission and related discretionary action plans. The plan would enclave Defense National Stockpile (DNSC) material at Letterkenny Army Depot, Chambersburg, PA, Seneca Army Depot, Romulus, NY, and Sierra Army Depot, Herlong, CA. Sell strategic materials and ores and return sites to the permitting military service at Savanna Army Depot, Savanna, IL, DDMT, and Naval Surface Warfare Center, Louisville, KY. The National Stockpile operates under authority of the Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpiling Act (50 U.S.C. 98-h-2(a)). This act provides that strategic and critical materials are stockpiled in the interest of national defense to preclude a dangerous and costly dependence upon foreign sources of supply in times of national emergency. The Defense National Stockpile Center administers the storage, management, and disposal of the Nation's inventory of strategic and critical materials essential to the military and industrial requirements of the United States in times of national emergency.
Guys; This is a very disturbing article posted on one of the blogs that I frequently visit. It is a conservative oriented political site but the story caught my eye. It deals directly with the extremely tenuous condition of union pension funds. Check out the section copied from the Washington Examiner's Mark Hemingway and note the conclusions drawn by the writer. Here is another case made for additional Quantitative Easing. With the banks facing the real possibility of having to buy back a plethora of mortgage backed securities in combination with a series of pension liabilities that could very well overwhelm the businesses attempting to meet them, methinks I hear the clamoring of many for the government to do something. What could come out of the upcoming lame-duck session of the Congress is terrifying to me personally as those politicians who have been fired by the voters will stand to lose nothing and might very well feel free to stick their "bosses" (the voting public) for firing them. This is one of the reasons I believe that today's reaction to a piddly ¼% rate hike in China is nothing but short term, meaningless noise. Trader Dan Armageddon: What Democrats Are Hiding & Why They Are Really Scared Unions and Democrats are scared. They should be. Very soon, Democrats and their union bosses' worst fears may soon be realized and, if they cannot continue their slight of hand, it may threaten their very existence. While it is true that Democrats and their union bosses are facing possibly debilitating losses on November 2nd, they are hiding the really bad news from voters until after November 2nd. Do you remember that promise we heard back in 2008 about transparency? Democrats and, in particular, then-candidate Barack Obama stated emphatically that "transparency and the rule of law will be the touchstones of this presidency." What a joke that was. Well, it's time to shed some light on the house of cards that is about to come crashing down on Democrats' and union bosses' heads.
Jim, I don't know if you have followed the model on http://www.goldmodel.blogspot.com. It is still early but with today's level of the USDX, first good support for the price of gold is now 1300. That level will change as the USDX fluctuates. CIGA Stefaan
Dear Eric The Bankster and Hedgie demons are thinking about foreclosures on tax delinquencies. I thought I had seen the most evil of people in the Western financial world in these characters but yesterday evening I witnessed something even worse. A speeding car threw a dog out an open door on a main road. The poor thing bounced. I stopped. With the help of Scott and Mike I got this beautiful young lab mix into my truck. She is at the vet today getting her shots, deloused, X-rayed and all the goodies. It looks like I have a new dog. I am naming her Angle because she came to me flying through the air. Scott wanted to name her Free-Fall. Dogs in the main are better than today's people, especially the Wall Street and Greenwich, Connecticut rich ones. Our crowd is the best. Regards, The New Tax Man: Big Banks and Hedge Funds Cash strapped municipalities desperate to fill budgetary holes generated from false, maybe better characterized as naive, expectations sell taxes owed in exchange for collection and legal rights to the same institutions that received massive taxpayer bailouts. Even a blind man could see that the decision of local governments to make this exchange without considering the consequences of their actions and "connected money" to profit from it has great potential for backlash. The Wall Street investors, which include Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co., have purchased from local governments the right to collect delinquent taxes on several hundred thousand properties, many in distressed housing markets, the Huffington Post Investigative Fund has found. In many cases, the banks and hedge funds created new companies to do their bidding. They gave the companies obscure, even whimsical names and used post office boxes as their addresses, masking Wall Street's dominant new role as a surrogate tax collector. In exchange for paying overdue real estate taxes, the investors gain legal powers from local governments to collect the debt and levy fees. At first, property owners may owe little more than a few hundred dollars, only to find their bills soaring into the thousands. In some jurisdictions, the new Wall Street tax collectors also chase debtors over other small bills, such as for water, sewer and sidewalk repair. Source: huffpostfund.org Thanks Bob
Eric, If you do not do "QE to infinity" you will get a form of the second article you did on the French riots in the entire Western world. Also, expect Big Brother to crack down on the "Miscreants of Main Street" as they will be called. Regards, Fed's Lockhart: Quantitative easing must be big Infinity (∞), while technically is not a number, suggests a quantity without bound. Infinity in terms of quantitative easing implies printing as much money as it takes to stabilize the imploding debt pile without having to officially recognize default. 'Big' suggests a finite limit, while whatever it takes to get the job done, a more accurate assessment of strategy being pursued, is far more ambiguous and difficult to explain. "If we're going to pursue another round of quantitative easing, it has to be a large enough number to make a difference," Lockhart said in an interview on CNBC. Source: finance.yahoo.com French retirement protests take violent turn One cannot play favor to one sub sector of society without repercussions from the others. Once the helping hand of socialism is offered to society, it is nearly impossibly to remove without so sort of social disruption. Masked youths clashed with police and set fires in cities across France on Tuesday as protests against a proposed hike in the retirement age took an increasingly radical turn. Hundreds of flights were canceled, long lines formed at gas stations and train service in many regions was cut in half. President Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to crack down on "troublemakers" and guarantee public order, raising the possibility of more confrontations with young rioters after a week of disruptive but largely nonviolent demonstrations. Source: news.yahoo.com
Hi Jim, As you said, we are seeing the stock market rise due to currency induced cost push inflation. As the mortgage foreclosure fraud becomes more mainstream by the day and the real problems are exposing themselves (securitized mortgage debt being worthless and a fraudulently sold investment by the banks to pensions and institutions), could this not be cause for some panic? Wouldn't that send the equity market down as that is the typical reaction in uncertain times, at least initially? I know this should not be the case and will not be the case at some point because of the currency induced cost push effects (you have taught me well) but are we at the point in time where investors worldwide realize the problems with sovereign debt (and their governments policies) enough to actually allocate more capital towards equities because of the uncertainty surrounding these issues (versus the typical move which is selling equities)? I think the answer might be that we are already witnessing the transformation in belief and capital allocation under stress and uncertainty, but I sure have a tough time seeing anyone on Main Street realizing this (equities) is the place to hide as this falls apart. At least not yet Do Main Street investors really even matter when it comes to the force that pulls the market down or pushes it higher under these circumstances? I can see it becoming Main Street that hits panic mode as their pensions are falling apart, job losses are greater, and they are two steps behind in understanding what is truly going on. I ask this as it may be a question of many CIGAs if they only catch the main theme which is equities will go significantly higher under cost push inflation. It would be nice to have an expert opinion on what to potentially expect shorter term as this all unfolds. I read Armstrong's recent piece, and who is to argue with him, but sometimes I find his commentary and predictions on price and time vague. However, his commentary about the Dow higher rather than lower is the main theme that is remembered after going through his work by most readers I am sure. This can be all a reader will hear and I think that sets up some people to struggle if they don't see the Dow take off, or if we see it make a short-term correction because of uncertainty. When he writes as to the Dow moving higher with gold, he doesn't mention the possibility of a knee jerk short-term reaction to the shit-hitting-the-fan. It would just seem as if it is straight up from here. As far as his cycle study goes he says Dow going higher over lower is the reality, but a 20%-25% slap to equities from here on uncertainty (especially if in short order) would surely throw many readers for a loop if only focusing on the Dow exploding as per Martin. What are the odds of a correction occurring with this event taking place (short term) versus the complete transition in investor thinking to a time that Martin discusses took place in the 30's. A situation where if this unfolds in the next month, the recent move in the equity market in the past 6 weeks looks like nothing impressive by comparison? Any insight you may have is great if you have the time. Take care, CIGA Ryan, This among other cause points means QE to infinity as there is no other choice. You can see this already functioning in markets. The path of currency induced cost push inflation grows and grows. One day CICP inflation falls directly off a cliff. That is what would cause $5000 gold. Those who live in the equity world only know equities. I would buy calls on the indices on big breaks, but not go silly bullish. It is all a play between Banksters and Hedgies. They reside in their own putrid world. Main Street has no money to do anything anymore. Main Street is focused on eating and keeping their homes. For specs only buy a few calls on the indices every time they get hammered Use people for what they are good at. Armstrong is the best in cyclical analysis. There is the value. Day by day CICP inflation increases and increases until all of sudden it explodes. This is the way it is happening right now. The future hides in plain sight. Regards,
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