Gold World News Flash |
- US economic fix: print money
- Why Gold Could Be the Safest Investment Out There
- Nice Try But No Cigar ! : Martin A. Armstrong
- 2010-10-18 Correct Data: Why Gold Could Be the Safest Investment Out There
- The Recurring Gold Bubble
- So Much For Gold! Chinese Stock Market to Outperform!
- Worthless Trillion Dollar Paper
- Gold Slips as Dollar Rallies, Correlation with Euro Holds at Record Level
- Where to buy the Next Dip in Gold
- Chris Berry and Miller O'Prey: Colombia a Hot Investment Market
- The New “Cold” War
- The Food Crisis of 2010
- Interview: Eric Sprott on Gold and QE2
- Green October
- LGMR: Gold Slips as Dollar Rallies, Correlation with Euro Holds at Record Level
- For week ending 15 October 2010
- Another Peter’s View on Gold
- Low Infltion = Massive Gold Rise!
- Central Banks Wake Up To Gold As A Currency
- Gold Near 1400
- Can’t Keep a Good Gold Down
- Grandich Client Silver Quest Resources
- Crude Oil Fails to Break Resistance, Gold Slides on Traders Lock in Gains
- We Have a New Gold Standard: Marc Faber
- Nice Try But No Cigar!
- Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
- O Canada!
- GEAB N°48 is available! Global systemic crisis - LEAP/E2020’s analysis of 39 countries’ risks 2010-2014: A collective but contrasting dive into the ph
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Start the Week with Slight Gains
- How to Value Junior Gold Shares
- Private Equity -- All Aboard?
- Here Is The Real Reason Why The Fed Is Delaying The New $100 Bill
- Bacteria turned into 'silver bullet' to combat flu
- Eric Sprott interviewed on gold and QE2
- Brown Brothers Musings On The "Broken Cash Register" And Why Economic Prosperity May Never Again Return
- China propels gold and should keep at it, Lassonde tells King World News
- OPEC members call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel
- The Recurring Gold “Bubble”
| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 09:45 PM PDT US AUTHORITIES are boosting the Australian dollar by turning to the "disastrous" economic tactics deployed by Zimbabwean dictator Robert Mugabe, a finance expert says. Mr Mugabe has printed so much money over such a long period that its national currency has become almost worthless, with hyper-inflation leading to Zimbabwean dollars being effectively scrapped.
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| Why Gold Could Be the Safest Investment Out There Posted: 18 Oct 2010 09:38 PM PDT "I computed gains and losses for every year since 1970 by comparing the gold prices of the first trading day of May. Let's see what came out (I highlighted the top four losses and top four gains): For our investor, the maximum loss suffered in a year in the past 40 years was -22.9% in 1976. The next three greatest losses are all bellow 20%. Frankly, I can't think of an investment that offers notably higher safety."
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| Nice Try But No Cigar ! : Martin A. Armstrong Posted: 18 Oct 2010 09:14 PM PDT "I have warned numerous times that the low is in place and that we will see new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials long before we see a new low. I have warned that Gold will rise to the $5000.00 level and that it will rise WITH STOCKS! These are trends that appear when there is a major crises in Public Confidence - the shift from Public to Private investments".
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| 2010-10-18 Correct Data: Why Gold Could Be the Safest Investment Out There Posted: 18 Oct 2010 06:04 PM PDT We published an article "Why Gold Could Be the Safest Investment Out There" on Seeking Alpha. A reader pointed out a mistake in the May 1982 gold price and unfortunately he was right - we took January 1982 gold price by mistake. Please find the corrected table below.
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 06:00 PM PDT
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| So Much For Gold! Chinese Stock Market to Outperform! Posted: 18 Oct 2010 05:57 PM PDT There has been a great deal of excitement about the recent performances of gold and silver with most analysts extremely optimistic regarding its potential. That being said technical analysis shows that it is in for some choppy seas ahead compared to the surging seas of the Chinese stock market. Perhaps today the refrain "Got Gold?" should be replaced with the words "Buy Chinese Stocks!" Words: 1004
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| Worthless Trillion Dollar Paper Posted: 18 Oct 2010 05:45 PM PDT
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| Gold Slips as Dollar Rallies, Correlation with Euro Holds at Record Level Posted: 18 Oct 2010 05:36 PM PDT
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| Where to buy the Next Dip in Gold Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:56 PM PDT
After the violent moves in the gold market last week which took it to another all time high of $1,385, and then a wrenching $25 pull back in a matter of hours, many traders are left grasping for an intelligent way to deal with the barbarous relic. Those who were too clever by half and traded out of the yellow metal early are now trying to buy it back on any dip, driving it relentlessly higher. The gold bugs who read this letter will not be surprised to hear that the Van Eck International Investor’s Gold Fund (INIVX) has been the top performing US mutual fund for the past five years, with an annual 27% return. The firm focuses on buying miners with good management and decent growth prospects. These are often found listed on the Sarbanes-Oxley free Toronto Stock Exchange. Its three top picks now are Agnico Eagle (AEM), Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC), and Rangold Resources (GOLD). The gold industry is in a supply/demand sweet spot now, as supplies have been ex-growth for a decade in the face of a rising tide of demand. Peak gold is upon us, and unexploited deposits are getting farther and fewer between. There will be no more of history’s “gold rushes” as seen in California, South Africa, Australia, and Alaska, as the world has been scoured to death for new deposits. This is happening while failed economic policies around the world create ever larger numbers of buyers. Gold may be overbought for the short term, but the world is waiting to buy it on any $100 dip, where emerging market central banks will be jostling with private institutions and individuals to top up existing positions, and “newbies” fight to open new ones. Van Eck’s conservative one year target is $1,700/ounce. They think the bull market has a good five years to run, and won’t end until we see an inflationary spike, taking prices to who knows where.
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| Chris Berry and Miller O'Prey: Colombia a Hot Investment Market Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT Source: Sally Lowder of The Gold Report 10/18/2010 Chris Berry is the founder of the New York-based mining research firm, House Mountain Partners, LLC, which focuses on the evolving geopolitical relationship between emerging and developed economies, the commodity space and junior mining and resource stocks positioned to benefit. Miller O'Prey, a well-respected professional geologist, is COO of Solvista Gold Corp. He has been working in Colombia for five years, and previously worked with both Grupo de Bullet and Continental Gold Ltd. In this exclusive interview with The Gold Report at the 6th Annual Colombian Mining Conference in Medellin, they share their enthusiasm about Colombia as an emerging investment market and offer strong recommendations for junior mining firms that offer excellent prospects. The Gold Report: Chris, why do you think we are seeing such an increase in foreign investment in mining in Colombia, and how would you describe the current investment en...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast October 18, 2010 12:41 PM by Addison Wiggin [LIST] [*]Return to the battle for Arctic oil: What does Putin mean by maintaining a “zone of peace”? [*]The “other” 20-bagger Arctic investment idea… far from any conflict zone [*]Treasury dithers on China, and Poof! miraculously shrinks the 2010 deficit [*]Countrywide saga nears end: Mozilo slithers away with $67.5 million fine [*] World’s fourth-richest man moves into his 27-story spread [/LIST] Ahhh, we begin this morning with a tale of two summits. One of them points to higher oil prices, the other to the consequences thereof. And ultimately where the twain meet... a unique investment idea. Let’s follow along… “We would love to see $100 a barrel,” said the head of Libya’s national oil company last week at an OPEC meeting in Vienna. Because the U.S. dollar has been so weak lately, “we’re losing real income.” Venezu...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT "I think we have a food crisis right now." – Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research, Morgan Stanley The leaves have turned all shades of red and gold. The air is crisp and cool. The fall beers are tapped. The brats are on the grill. It's autumn. That means it's time to talk about the harvest, in particular for corn. Corn was the big news in markets on Friday. What some called a "harvest shocker" sent corn up 6% on the day. The USDA cut its harvest projections by nearly 4%, which took the market by surprise. And that's just one of the reasons why the corn price has soared to $5.30 a bushel from $3.30 a bushel last July. The shares of most ag-based companies are responding in kind. Fertilizer stocks are soaring, for example, as are the shares of irrigation equipment companies like Lindsay (NYSE:LNN). By contrast, the market has been hammering the stocks of meat producers. Tyson Foods has been falling on the theory that higher prices for corn means higher feed prices to fatten ...
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| Interview: Eric Sprott on Gold and QE2 Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT By Ron Hera October 18, 2010 ©2010 Hera Research, LLC * The Hera Research Newsletter (HRN) is pleased to present the following exclusive interview with Eric Sprott, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Sprott Asset Management LP and Chairman and CEO of Sprott Money, Ltd. With over 35 years of experience in the investment industry, Mr. Sprott is the Senior Portfolio Manager for numerous funds comprising several billion dollars in assets. After earning his designation as a chartered accountant, Eric entered the investment industry as a research analyst at Merrill Lynch. In 1981, he founded Sprott Securities (now called Cormark Securities Inc.), which today is one of Canada's largest independently owned securities firms. After establishing Sprott Asset Management Inc. in December 2001 as a separate entity, Eric divested his entire ownership of Sprott Securities to its employees. Eric's investment abilities are well represented by his ...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT www.preciousmetalstockreview.com October 16, 2010 With QE2 apparently coming within the next few weeks markets are shedding off the more common October blues and rallying. Leading stocks moved up quite well during the week as earnings season plays out, and everyones favourite search engine reported huge earnings which sparked a major rally after the bell on Thursday. The metals aren’t doing too shabby either and these days I’m finding a good mix of metals and leading stocks is the way to go. Our trading portfolio is up over 30% over the past six weeks, so something is working! Let’s move right along into my favourite precious metals. Metals review Gold continued to move higher for the week heading up 1.59% this time, but price is gyrating more violently now as it ascends. Gold has moved from it’s channel into a steeper channel now. My timing for a correction has been off and I haven’t had the chanc...
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| LGMR: Gold Slips as Dollar Rallies, Correlation with Euro Holds at Record Level Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 07:45 ET, Mon 18 Oct. Gold Slips as Dollar Rallies, Correlation with Euro Holds at Record Level THE PRICE OF PHYSICAL gold fell in Asian and early London trade on Monday, dropping to a 3-session low of $1354 an ounce as the US Dollar rallied and Asian stock markets ended the day lower. Only New Zealand and Bombay equities avoided a drop in Asia-Pacific trade, while US crude oil contracts slid to a 1-week low of $80.35 per barrel. Copper also fell 1%. Silver prices fell below $24 an ounce for the first time since Wednesday before bouncing as European stock markets crept higher. "This bubble will likely be pricked only when economic outlooks improve and unemployment figures in countries like the US drop below 8%," reckons Mark Williams – a lecturer in finance at Boston University School of Management, and author of a new book on Lehman's collapse – in today's Financial Times. But while "Gold in times of financia...
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| For week ending 15 October 2010 Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT Technically Precious with Merv Short term indicators are suggesting weakness in this latest move by gold into new highs. Are they telling us that a plunge is ahead? GOLD LONG TERM The price of gold is a hundred dollars above its long term moving average line so one can surmise that there is no immediate danger of the gold reversing its long term trend anytime very soon. Shorter term moves may be something else but the long term remains solid. Gold remains above its long term moving average line. The long term momentum indicator remains in its positive zone above its positive slopping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to move higher in all time high territory and above its positive sloping trigger line. What more can one say? The long term rating remains BULLISH. INTERMEDIATE TERM Gold is just a little less than $50 above its intermediate term moving average line so here too there seems to be no immediate danger of a reversal of trend. ...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 18, 2010 08:37 AM watch [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Low Infltion = Massive Gold Rise! Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT (Gold is on Sale at the JH MINT!) Silver Stock Report by Jason Hommel, October 17th, 2010 The most common myth or misperception in the gold market today goes something like this: "Since inflation rates are low, then there's no reason for gold to go up very much." This misunderstanding is expressed in many different ways, such as: "Since the Consumer Price Index shows only 4% inflation, then gold should go up by no more than about 4% per year." or "Since M1 is showing only moderate inflation, or deflation, then gold prices are due for a moderate gain, or even a fall." or "Since inflation expectations are moderate, and interest rates on bonds are low, then gold's outsized gains are unsustainable, and thus in a bubble." or "When interest rates begin to rise, the more attractive rates will pull money out of gold and back into bonds." All of these statem...
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| Central Banks Wake Up To Gold As A Currency Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 18, 2010 08:03 AM Dear CIGAs, Central banks are quickly waking up to the fact that gold is a currency. The other epiphany is that this time gold will, as always, be prone to reactions at key points, but this is no repeat of 1980 for reasons I have told you many times. South Korean central bank looks to gold By Christian Oliver and Song Jung-a in Seoul and Jack Farchy in London Published: October 18 2010 10:24 | Last updated: October 18 2010 16:13 South Korea, holder of the world's fifth-biggest foreign exchange reserves, is considering buying gold to diversify its dollar-heavy portfolio, the country's central bank said, adding it would be cautious in making any final decision. Even a small realignment of South Korea's reserves would have a powerfully bullish effect on the gold market. With just 14 tonnes of gold – or 0.2 per cent of its $290bn reserves – Seoul is one of the smallest holders of gold among large economies...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com October 18, 2010 07:03 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Daily RSI has tested the November 2009 extreme and gold has also failed at its multi month channel line. An objective going forward remains 1405, which is the 100% extension of the 1048-1270 advance. Only a drop below 1350 would suggest a trend change....
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 18, 2010 07:19 AM Bill Murphy and* GATA sends the following message to Tokyo Rose and Gold Cartel [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Grandich Client Silver Quest Resources Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! October 18, 2010 04:22 AM While we await numerous holes from the Yukon and the Capoose, we’ve something to get us through the winter months. [url]http://www.grandich.com/[/url] grandich.com...
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| Crude Oil Fails to Break Resistance, Gold Slides on Traders Lock in Gains Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com October 17, 2010 10:51 PM Risk assets across the board are kicking off the new week with losses as traders rush to lock in profits after sizzling gains over the past several weeks. Crude oil and gold are no exception. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil Fails to Break Resistance Crude Oil (WTI) - $80.73 // $0.52 // 0.64% Commentary: Crude oil is lower in the overnight session as traders continue to take profits after a blistering run from the low-$70’s. The push-pull dynamic between a bullish global economic outlook and ample supplies continues. So far these two factors have offset each other, which has allowed crude oil to stay within its 12-month range between the high-$60’s and low-$80’s. With prices now at the top end, it is only natural that traders would look to lock in gains. The question now becomes, is oil now poised to head toward the lower end of the range or will it breakout to the upside? While another trip into the...
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| We Have a New Gold Standard: Marc Faber Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT I wouldn't read a thing into yesterdays price action in gold. It spent the entire day range-bound between $1,120 and $1,130. The highs and lows aren't worth mentioning. Nothing to see here, folks! It was the same for silver. There's nothing to talk about in this chart. The dollar has been an interesting case study over the last couple of days. A rally started about 2:00 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday morning... and, in fits and starts, added about 80 basis points to its price over the next 36 hours... yet the precious metals prices barely reacted at all. In times past, a dollar rally of this magnitude would have resulted in a rather significant sell-off in both gold and silver. It certainly didn't happen this time... and as I mentioned in my column yesterday... we've see a lot more of that kind of action recently, where the gold price is not necessarily tied to the dollar action. As other commentators have pointed out... the precious metals are now bac...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 18, 2010 11:45 AM Dear CIGAs, A rising stock market and rising gold price is a product of currency induced cost push inflation. If you have eyes to see the future is hiding in plain sight. Click image to open Martin Armstrong's latest in PDF format ...
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| Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... October 18, 2010 09:58 AM Dear CIGAs, Click chart to enlarge today's hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini ...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:40 PM PDT There are those who say the US is doomed, that there is no way out from our problems with deficits, future entitlement promises, and a dysfunctional political system. And in my darker moments I worry that they are right. I get the problems, probably more than most. But there is a way out. Hopefully, it does not entail collapse first, as some suggest. But it will require a lot of hard decisions. Some will be very hard. For example, many point to the unfunded Medicare liabilities of some $70 trillion. I don't worry about them so much, as they will never be paid, at least not under the current system. LONG before we get to that point, there will be a crisis that will force us to deal with the issues. Rule: if something can't happen, then it won't. We can't pay the Medicare bill, so it won't happen. Something else will happen in the meantime. It may not be good or pleasant, but something will come along to change the rules. More taxes? Fewer benefits? That is up in the air. But the ...
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:38 PM PDT No wonder Gold and everything else is going up. - Public announcement GEAB N°48 (October 16, 2010) - http://www.leap2020.eu/geab-n-48-is-available-global-systemic-crisis-leap-e2020-s-analysis-of-39-countries-risks-2010-2014-a-collective-but_a5295.html In this issue, our team introduces the annual "country risk" update in the light of the crisis. Based on an analysis incorporating eleven criteria this year, this decision-making tool has already demonstrated its relevance in faithfully anticipating developments over these past twelve months. The identification, at the beginning of 2009, of a new phase of the crisis (the phase of global geopolitical dislocation) forced us to take new parameters into account (nine indicators were selected in 2009) to effectively incorporate trends that are reshaping the global system (1). As 2010 draws to a close, LEAP/E2020 now estimates that the world's various countries are heading for a collective dive at the core of this phase of socio-economic and strategic geopolitical dislocation (2). Thus our studies enabled us to continue presenting the LEAP/E2020 anticipation of "country risk" for the 2010-2014 period (3), by adapting the categories to the crisis' development, via four groups of countries (4) characterized by the contrasting impacts of this dive in the geopolitical dislocation phase of the global systemic crisis (5). On the other hand, in this GEAB issue, we give our anticipations for the progress of Euro-Russian relations between now and 2014. In our recommendations, we pay particular attention to helping our readers deal with a currency market in global conflict, a fallout anticipated over 18 months ago by our team, as a result of geopolitical dislocation. Moreover, on the occasion of the publication of his book "The Global Crisis: The Path to the World After - France, Europe and the World in the 2010-2020 decade ", Franck Biancheri, Director of LEAP/E2020, and Anticipolis editions, have given us permission to publish his analysis of the process of the ongoing global geopolitical dislocation. Documented instances of social unrest 2009-2010 - Source: IILS, 09/2010 The G20's (or IMF's) now patent failure to secure effective international cooperation to try and remedy the structural weaknesses of the current international monetary system perfectly illustrates LEAP/E2020's anticipation which in March 2009, before the London G20 meeting, explained that the summit was the only window of opportunity to fundamentally rethink the global monetary system at the heart of the current crisis. In failing to seize this opportunity, we reported that the world would begin to enter the global geopolitical dislocation phase from late 2009. At that time, by way of an introduction to this new phase of the crisis, the world has seen the mid-flight explosion, during the Copenhagen summit, of the whole international process on global warming. Since then, every month brings a stream of public finance crises in one state or another, drastic austerity measures causing increase in social unrest (6), international meetings leading to reports of disagreement, the proliferation of threats between States over trade imbalances, etc., all against a background of a downward spiral into hell of the global system's central power, namely the United States (7). Change in labour force participation between the first quarters of 2009 and 2010 (Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, France, South Korea, Argentina, Italy, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan and the United States) - Source: IILS, 09/2010 For several months now we have been witnessing the onset of a massive currency world war just like LEAP/E2020 anticipated nearly two years ago and reiterated in its time-frame of the crisis (8). Several weeks hence, the inevitable failure (9) of the FMI/G20 duo to resolve these currency-trade (10) tensions will provide both new evidence while marking a new tipping point of global geopolitical dislocation: every man for himself becoming the rule (11). Two weeks from now, with the announcement of the actual details of a comprehensive plan to reduce spending, the United Kingdom will eventually have to face an unprecedented (12) socio-economic crisis that it has desperately tried to hide for months (13), and it will have to do it alone (since the United States are unable to help it, and it has put itself outside the European financial rescue system). And in three weeks, the United States will concurrently expose an unprecedented political paralysis following the mid-term election (14), whilst the US Federal Reserve will launch a new attempt to rescue the US economy by monetizing a stimulus plan that the federal government is no longer able to launch (15). This attempt - whose size will be less than financial markets expect (because the Fed is now forced, in this case by the holders of US Dollar denominated assets: China, Japan, Europe, oil-producing countries (16)...) but more than enough to lead to a further fall in the dollar and plunge the world monetary system into an even worse conflict - will fail anyway because US society has, de facto, entered a phase of austerity that US leaders, in 2011, will have to recognize must also constrain the country's fiscal and monetary policy (17). From the world leaders' side (18), the next four years' global sequence can be summarized quite simply: last US attempts to "return to the world before the crisis" (stimulating consumption, maintaining deficits, debt monetization) that will all fail (19), last Western attempts to deal with the crisis using "Washington consensus" methods (limiting deficits by reducing social spending, no tax increases on high incomes, privatization of public services, ...) which will generate growing socio-political chaos, acceleration of the BRIC countries' exit from the majority of Western financial and monetary markets (especially the two financial pillars of Wall Street and London) which will increase monetary instability, rising intensity of trade wars (coextensive with currency wars (20)), the coming to power from 2012 of groups of leaders who have decided to try new solutions (21) to exit the social, economic and political consequences of the crisis, taking note of the fact that the "Washington consensus" is dead ... because there is no consensus anymore and because Washington is a moribund world power. As for the rest, the keeping the US debt's Triple-A rating belongs to the same virtual world as the recent declaration by US economic authorities (22) of the end of recession: the growing disconnect between the words of a collapsing system's key players and the reality perceived by the majority of citizens and socio-economic players is an infallible indication of systemic decline (23). But the financial markets are not mistaken because with the soaring cost of insuring US debt hot on the heels of Ireland and Portugal with a 28% third quarter increase in cost, the United States has become the third country for which the debt markets fear some very unpleasant surprises (24). Comparative progression of the United States' deficit (in trillions USD) and the amount of known global reserves held in U.S. Dollars (1999-2009) - Sources: Reuters/IMF/White House OMB, 10/2010 --------- Notes: (1) From the beginning of 2006, in the GEAB No. 5, LEAP/E2020 indicated that the global systemic crisis would evolve in 4 major phases. "A global systemic crisis develops in a complex process that can be cut into four phases which may overlap: . a first "trigger" phase that suddenly sees a whole series of factors, hitherto disconnected, start to converge and interact, and which mainly remain noticeable to alert watchers and the main players . a second phase called "acceleration" which is characterized by the sudden realization by the vast majority of players and observers that the crisis is here because it starts affecting a rapidly growing number of the system's elements . a third "impact" phase which is formed by the radical transformation of the system itself (implosion and/or explosion) under the effect of accumulated factors and which simultaneously affects the entire system . and finally, a fourth phase called "decanting" that sees the release of the new system's characteristics resulting from the crisis. Source GEAB No. 5, 15/05/2006 . early 2009, in the GEAB No. 32, LEAP/E2020 identified a fifth phase of the crisis, called global geopolitical dislocation, which begins at the end of 2009, following the G20 failure to launch a credible process of establishing a new international system, particularly in the monetary field. This new phase has been, of course, integrated into the time-frame presented last year in GEAB No. 38. (2) The ability of states to cope with social unrest that will multiply in the coming quarters and years is closely linked to their ability to contain the most traumatic social effects of the crisis; therefore, our team has introduced a tenth indicator correlated to the tax burden of the past twenty years, whilst an eleventh indicator has been added to assess the resilience to a global monetary war. (3) Our team has analyzed indicators for 39 countries in addition to Euroland. (4) These country- risk analyses may be particularly useful for those planning an investment in a given country, intending to settle there or wishing to make an investment in assets linked to that country. (5) We chose to keep 2014 as an overview because we believe that the changes in political leadership occurring in many important countries (China, USA, Russia, France, ...) in 2012, and which are the principal potential positive factor looking at the next four years, will have no appreciable impact on these country-risks before 2014, the time that new policies are starting to yield results. (6) France gives a striking example with the growing unpopularity of an executive which fails to prevent social unrest against its reforms and which risks turning into a general strike (France 24, 14/10/2010). Meanwhile, throughout Europe, there is a marked increase of extremist political forces. Source: Le Point, 20/09/2010 (7) All the lights are turning red. The road transport volume has started to decline again (Los Angeles Times, 13/10/2010). Foreclosures continued to grow last month, whilst the whole legal system on which they rest has now broken down (for the legal reasons mentioned in the GEAB a year ago) upsetting a real estate market on Fed and Federal Government life support even more (CNBC, 14/10/2010; USAToday, 14/10/2010; USAToday, 11/10/2010). Cities are sinking into vey deep deficits (such as their employee retirement funds estimated at over 500 billion USD, CNBC/FT, 12/10/2010) and are obliged to turn to the states to try and extricate themselves (CNBC/NYT, 05/10/2010), while the latter can no longer balance their budgets and are obliged to pay interest rates higher than developing countries (thus, Illinois must now pay more than Mexico to borrow, Bloomberg, 05/10/2010). (8) See the GEAB N°43 particularly. (9) History doesn't repeat itself. If we pushed so hard (including at the cost of a full page advertisement in the global edition of the Financial Times) for world leaders to seize the opportunity at the G20 in Spring 2009, it was because we were aware that such a set-up would not happen again. Now the US is too weak to continue to steer the global game, no other player is able to take affairs in hand ... and therefore, the global financial system looks more and more like the "drunken boat; in Rimbaud's poem describing the drift towards unexplored beaches, a perfect description of the world's course today. (10) As for the negotiations on climate change, a "West" already clearly divided (here between the Dollar, Pound, Yen and Euro), tries to make the emerging countries (the Yuan in particular) pay the cost of adapting a system they invented and which no longer works. And it's not by ending the game as shown by US efforts to prevent any new Chinese rating agency from operating in the United States that will dissipate this feeling in the BRIC countries. One remembers the performance in Copenhagen. It will pale in comparison to what awaits us at the G20 meeting in Seoul. Besides, the soaring gold price is a very reliable indicator: even the European central banks have stopped their sales. Sources: New York Times, 21/09/2010; Vigile, 29/09/2010; PrisonPlanet/FT, 27/09/2010, Bloomberg, 10/10/2010; ChinaDaily, 27/09/2010 (11) The Telegraph summarized it admirably on 11/10/2010 in "Jobless America threatens to sweep us all away." Sign of the times, Bloomberg on 08/09/2010 announces the opening of a Ruble-Yuan currency exchange in Shanghai to finance Sino-Russian trade. (12) There is a growing fear in the United Kingdom over the country's social and political situation in the context of "super-austerity" planned by the government due to financial and budget crisis: the loss of nearly a million jobs, social crisis, unrest.... Sources: Independent, 02/10/2010; Telegraph, 13/10/2010; Guardian, 11/09/2010; MarketWatch, 21/09/2010. (13) This was, moreover, the main reason for the "Greek crisis becoming the Euro crisis" in Spring 2010, in particular fed daily by articles in the Financial Times to divert attention from London and the Pound Sterling. See GEAB in the first half of 2010. (14) Recent statements by Steve Schwarzman, head of the financial giant Blackstone, comparing Barack Obama's willingness to tax financial companies more heavily to Hitler's invasion of Poland, illustrates the explosive atmosphere that rules at the core of the US elite. Source: NewYorkPost, 14/10/2010 (15) Because of the magnitude of existing deficits and political deadlock in Washington. (16) In this regard, our team gives a timely reminder that there is no mystery about the simultaneous rise of different asset classes, like stocks or gold for example: operators are leaving the stock exchanges (as we showed in the last GEAB issue) and selling their financial and monetary assets for gold (or other less dangerous assets) and the Fed (and its partners) are injecting liquidity into the financial markets to prevent a widespread collapse. The only problem, when the music stops: it will be a tragedy for the stock exchanges. Source: CNBC, 08/10/2010 (17) The situation is so bad that a reading of the New York Times of 13/10/2010 started to look like a cut and paste of the GEAB a year or two ago ... that's saying something! The article by Michael Powell and Motoko Rich, which describes the "recovery" as merely a continuation of this recession shows the plight of the middle classes across the country in a harsh light, while the very same day Paul Reyes unveils a remarkable collection of photographs showing the ravages of the "Very Great US Depression" as LEAP/E2020 has called it since late 2006. (18) Franck Biancheri offers a detailed presentation, with the two likely main scenarios for 2010-2020, in his book "The Global Crisis: The Path to the World after; (19) Source: SeekingAlpha, 24/09/2010 (20) Singapore's recent announcement that from now on its currency's trading band against the U.S. dollar will be wider, is the latest example (each day brings a new one) of increasingly defensive positions taken by individual states. Each one tries to increase its room for maneuver to cope with the unexpected. Incidentally, it is interesting to note that Singapore suffered a 19% third quarter fall in GDP, evidence that the mood in Asia is becoming gloomy. Source: YahooFinances, 14/10/2010; MarketWatch, 13/10/2010 (21) For China, one solution will most probably be to inject the country's huge US Dollar reserves into the economy as already suggested by the new generation of Chinese bankers. This will not help the US Dollar. Source: Dallasnews, 19/09/2010 (22) The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER is in charge of "holding a Mass" on this subject. (23) As MSNBC aptly described on 06/10/2010, it's once a month at midnight that America's great depression is revealed in the supermarkets, when tens of millions of food voucher recipients go and do their shopping. According to the study by the Center for Economic and Policy Research published on 16/09/2010, in effect now one in three Americans can no longer make ends meet (one hundred million people ). (24) Source: CNNMoney, 12/10/2010 Samedi 16 Octobre 2010 
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| Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Start the Week with Slight Gains Posted: 18 Oct 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold fell as much as $17.95 to $1352.50 in Asia, but it then rallied back higher for most of trade in New York and ended near its late morning high of $1372.75 with a gain of 0.07%. Silver fell to as low as $23.73 in Asia, but it then rallied back higher for most of the rest of trade and ended near its noontime high of $24.458 with a gain of 0.54%.
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| How to Value Junior Gold Shares Posted: 18 Oct 2010 03:19 PM PDT While the bank shares rally and stock markets take heart from Apple's blow out earnings results - because better technology will lead us out of a debt crisis - today's Daily Reckoning is about value. That is, how do you accurately value the future earnings of a company that doesn't have any cash flow? Before we take up that riddle, don't forget to sign up for the Gold Symposium in Sydney November 8th-10th (especially if you're a columnist from a major Melbourne newspaper and you don't understand gold as money and its role in the monetary system). The early bird discount has expired. But that means the special rate we've negotiated for Daily Reckoning readers to attend all three days of the show is almost $200 than the regular retail rate. Still, we know $770 isn't cheap. So have a look at the program and see what's on offer. The first day of the conference is free and features representatives from gold companies that are presumably there to talk about their projects. Proceed with caution, as with all junior exploration companies. If you stick around for the next two days, you'll get an in depth look at what's behind gold's move, why it might be headed higher in Aussie dollar terms, and how to evaluate gold shares. The last bit is probably the most useful bit for Aussie resource investors. Remember that the financial industry largely has one goal: to sell you whatever you're willing to buy and make a commission on it. With gold making news, you can expect a lot of new gold companies, or old companies claiming they've found new gold (or in the case of old mines, old gold!) A lot of the press releases that come from new gold companies sound great, especially when bullish comments from "analysts" and the underwriting investment bank are included (if it's a new float). This reminds your editor of a conversation we had about five years ago with a resource guru back in the States. "You have a real advantage in the early days of a bull market because everyone in the financial industry has forgotten how to value gold companies. This is what happens in a bear market. Prices stay flat and companies try to and orient themselves to other commodities. You had a twenty year bear market in gold. The whole generation of financial analysts and planners went through school learning discounted cash flow models as the only valuation tool. But that doesn't work with junior miners. These guys will have no idea what to pay for a gold stock, or why you should even buy one." "Why doesn't the DCF model work for juniors?" we innocently asked. He chuckled. "You know what a gold mine is don't you? It's a hole in the ground with a liar standing next to it, usually. But not always." "But if you're buying them because they can go up like a growth stock, whey wouldn't you value them the same way?" "Because exploration companies don't usually have earnings. The usually just have a whole lot of expenses and a poorly defined resource that MAY be leveraged to higher metals prices. The only certainties they have are costs...and even those aren't certain. Capex and opex costs almost always rise during a boom as the demand for mining services and miners goes up. No serious gold stock analyst would slap a valuation on a junior based on a DCF model with so many unknown variables. It's not credible." We recalled the conversation because on page eight of today's Financial Review there's an article about how ASIC has warned "independent experts" not to use DCF models when projecting earnings for junior miners. In simple terms, a DCF model is rubbish when there are no cash flows. What is the present value of future earnings when there are no earnings present?! So how DO you value companies that have projects and perhaps a poorly defined resource (or maybe proven reserves) but no current production? The old industry stand-by is to use a ratio between the market capitalisation of the company and either the proven reserves or a general resource figure. This begins to give you an idea of what you're paying, per share, for each ounce of gold in the ground (or gold that could be 'proved up' into something economically producible). For the major gold producers with defined reserves, a clear capital structure , and a portfolio of assets, this is one way (the market cap/oz of proven reserves ratio) of weighing up which company gives you the most gold for your investment/speculative dollar. But it is a bit more complicated than that. This is why we were happy to publish Troy Schwensen's article on the subject in Diggers and Drillers back in 2009. You'll find the whole article below. Since then, of course, Dr. Alex Cowie has taken over Diggers and Drillers and brought his own brand of thorough balance sheet analysis to the juniors. Alex recommended gold stocks earlier this year and his readers have done quite well in them. He says the DCF model usually has too many variables to be useful when you're trying to figure out what a stock might do. He says other commodities (like coal, for example) have similar ratios to the market cap/oz of reserves that place a value on assets in the ground that have yet to be mined. There is even an argument that in markets where underlying commodity prices are rising (for whatever reason) the best stocks to own are the companies with the largest resource, but that are not actually producing anything yet. As our friend Joanne Nova at GoldNerds.com.au said a few years back, gold in the ground is like, "an 'option' to own gold cheaply, with no expiration date." But whether you prefer your gold in the ground, in a vault, or in your pocket is really up to you. Of course it could be that you think the whole idea is rubbish anyway, or that gold has already run its race. This, too, will probably be discussed up in Sydney. In the meantime, nothing really happened in the markets overnight to convince us that the underlying situation isn't awful. Bank shares rallied. But the ownership and thus the value of the principal assets in the American banking system are in dispute. That's not just bad for US banks. It's bad for all banks. Nobody is immune from the fall out. Meanwhile over in France, the austerity (raising the retirement age from 60 to 62) has hardly begun and the French (mostly the young, naive, and grossly spoiled students) are protesting and bringing transport to a halt with a general strike. Actually it's the interruption of fuel supplies that's causing the trouble. But at the heart of the dispute is again a misunderstanding about value. The French students - like so many people in the Western world who were born, brainwashed, and bamboozled by the ethos of the times - think you can get something for nothing, or that we can all live at one another's expense without anyone really doing any work. It is the "great lie" of our time. People have heard it so much they actually believe it and demand it as a right! Something cannot come from nothing. Profit - the stuff that pays taxes to finance the Welfare state - is surplus value; when labour or design or technology makes the whole worth more than the sum of the parts. The French (like post World War two Americans) have been living off of accumulated capital for years. The U.S., having less time to accumulate capital and having seen much of it off-shored in the last 30-years, has made up the difference with debt. That's more or less where we are on a Tuesday, in the grand sweep of Western history. We are also close to lunch time. And the place across the street has an excellent chicken sandwich, served with bacon and avocado on multigrain bread. It costs about ten dollars in the incredibly strong Aussie dollar. And, unlike, gold, you can eat it! Just because you can't eat gold, though, doesn't mean it isn't the best store of value going. It has been for many years. And now, when governments all over the world are in a race to steal growth from one another through currency debasement, we're buying on dips and on strength. The great subprime/debt reckoning is coming. Dan Denning,
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 03:06 PM PDT
SmartCompany editor James Thomson reports, Private equity returns:
If you want to know where private equity is heading, just look at public equities. As long as global equity markets keep grinding higher, and M&A activity picks up, than you have the conditions in place to bolster PE activity. And then there is liquidity, plenty of it, from sources like China. In fact, China’s Mr Private Equity explains the new frontier’s hopes and risks:
Does all this mean good times for private equity lie straight ahead? Not exactly. There remains a considerable amount of economic uncertainty and banks are willing to lend as much as they use to finance mega buyout deals. Nevertheless, there is plenty of liquidity out there to fund private equity shops, and as long as equity markets keep forging ahead, then private equity activity will pick up in the coming months.
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| Here Is The Real Reason Why The Fed Is Delaying The New $100 Bill Posted: 18 Oct 2010 02:36 PM PDT
A few weeks ago, the Fed announced that the new $100 dollar note has been delayed, and will not make broad circulation by the February 2011 scheduled date. Contrary to prior rumors that either the Fed's printer had finally broken, or that all the ink had been used up, courtesy of William Banzai we now know the true reason. Over the past several months, using the smokescreen of QE 2, the Fed has been secretly contemplating two completely different monetary concepts, both very much appropriate for our Keynesian end-times. Since the Fed will shortly request public commentary on which of the two alternatives should be implemented, we present them to Zero Hedge readers first. Concept #1 - the "use by" bills. If one wants to accelerate the velocity of the dollar (to infinity, at least in theory), with the multiplier currently stuck well below 1, all one needs is to add an expiration date on every single piece of linen. Below is an artist's rendering of the circulating specimen.
Concept #2 - the "fill it in yourself" bill. This one is pretty self explanatory.
We are confident that the final solution (with respect to the dollar) will incorporate the best of all worlds. h/t William Banzai
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| Bacteria turned into 'silver bullet' to combat flu Posted: 18 Oct 2010 02:20 PM PDT Scientists have discovered that they can attach tiny studs of silver onto the surface of otherwise harmless bacteria, giving them the ability to destroy viruses. They have tested the silver-impregnated bacteria against norovirus, which causes winter vomiting outbreaks, and found that they leaves the virus unable to cause infections. Vomiting bug ship to set sail for homeThe researchers now believe the same technique could help to combat other viruses, including influenza and those responsible for causing the common cold. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/s...ombat-flu.html
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| Eric Sprott interviewed on gold and QE2 Posted: 18 Oct 2010 01:46 PM PDT 9:43p ET Monday, October 18, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Financial journalist Ron Hera has gotten an interview with Sprott Asset Management Chairman and CEO Eric Sprott that covers gold market manipulation as well as the declining usefulness of government "stimulus" programs. The interview is headlined "Eric Sprott on Gold and QE2" and you can find it at GoldSeek here: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1287410400.php And at 321Gold here: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hera/hera101810.html CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there. For the company's complete announcement, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php Join GATA here: The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, Plans Aggressive Exploration of Elizabeth Gold Property On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth
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| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 01:36 PM PDT
Le mercennarie et ausiliarie sono inutili e pericolose; e, se uno tiene lo stato suo fondato in sulle arme mercennarie, non sara’ mai fermo ne’ sicuro.
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| China propels gold and should keep at it, Lassonde tells King World News Posted: 18 Oct 2010 01:01 PM PDT 9p ET Monday, October 18, 2010 Dear Friend of GATA and Gold: Eric King of King World News today interviewed mining entrepreneur Pierre Lassonde, who, in excerpts posted at the Internet site, reported enormous physical gold demand from China. Lassonde added that China's central bank needs a lot more gold to diversify its foreign exchange reserves. King's interview with Lassonde is headlined "Pierre Lassonde -- Strong Forces Propelling Gold" and you can find it at King World News here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/10/18_P... Or try this abbreviated link: CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth Join GATA here: The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy Resource Goes Into Production A commission appointed by Mongolia's Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy has conducted the final permit inspection at Prophecy Resource Corp.'s Ulaan Ovoo mine site and has instructed the company to begin coal production. Prophecy Resource (TSX.V: PCY) has begun production of its first 10,000 tonnes of coal as a trial run of supply to be taken by rail to electric power stations in Darkhan and Erdenet, Mongolia's second and third largest cities after the capital, Ulaanbaatar. The company is the second-ever Canadian mining company to get a permit to mine in Mongolia and start production there. For the company's complete announcement, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_oct14.php
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| OPEC members call for oil to rise to $100 a barrel Posted: 18 Oct 2010 01:00 PM PDT |
| Posted: 18 Oct 2010 12:57 PM PDT Tim Iacono Everyone's talking about a "gold bubble" again and how its bursting will wreak havoc on those foolish investors who succumbed to the lure of tulips, dotcom stocks, housing, and now … a shiny yellow metal. But, the funny thing is, this latest bubble seems to keep bursting and re-inflating – [...]
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