Gold World News Flash |
- Guest Post: Conscious Capitalism
- Silver Probes the $20 Level
- Gold and Oil Go Separate Ways
- Are New Home Prices Rising? Nope, That’s Just Inflation.
- Gold is about understanding the events that got us here and how they will unfold
- A Lack of Fundamental Drive Resolves Oil to Congestion, Breaks Gold Trend
- Rip-Off By The Federal Reserve
- Daily Dispatch: Spend, Then Tax
- In The News Today
- Improving Jobs Figure Nothing More Than A ?Guestimate?
- Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
- First Gold Poised For Rare Metals Dominance in Quebec
- False Choice: Worse than Sweden
- Silver Quest Resources, The Yukon Gold Rush and Gold and Silver
- A Historic Supply Shift That Will Drive Gold Higher and Higher
- Gold Daily RSI Above 70
- Gold Channel Tells the Story
- Rare Trading Action, Explosion Imminent: James Turk
- LGMR: Gold's "Failed Break" of $1265 Draws Only "Light" Selling, Scrap Flows Slow
- Is It Deflation Yet?.. EU Fizzling
- Precious Metals Equity Index Forms a Triple Top, Whats Next?
- Still lucky
- [## SEPT MACRO ECONOMIC REPORT DUE WEDDAY the 15th ##]
- My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2010
- IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh
- Guest Post: The Genetics Of Investing - Kill The Messenger
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly
- Market Commentary From Monty Guild
- Air-Tite Holders: Direct Fit vs. Black Ring - What's Your Preference?
- No More Bones to Pick
- Even Bangladesh is buying gold from the IMF
- US Real Estate Market Sits in the Waiting Room
- IMF sells 10 tonnes of gold to Bangladesh
- Whether After a Shorter or Longer (3-4 wk) Correction, Silver and Gold Will Move Much Higher this Fall
- The U.S. Will Never, Ever Catch China in Clean Energy - Not a Reason to Stop Investing
- European Sovereign Debt: Default Now or Default Later?
- Thursday ETF Wrap-Up: EPP Surges, JJC Falls
- THURSDAY Market Excerpts
- Thursday Bond Market Recap
- This is a critical level for gold
Guest Post: Conscious Capitalism Posted: 09 Sep 2010 07:27 PM PDT Action alone is the province, never the fruits thereof. Let not thy motive be the fruit of action, nor shouldst thou desire to avoid action. - The Bhagavad Gita Renunciation means absence of hankering after fruit. As a matter of fact he who renounces reaps a thousandfold. He who is ever brooding over result often loses nerve in the performance of his duty. He becomes impatient and then gives vent to anger and begins to do unworthy things; He jumps from action to action, never remaining faithful to any. - Mahatma Ghandi A Merging of the "Left" and the "Right" During my most recent interview with Max Keiser I briefly introduced a concept that I referred to as "conscious capitalism" and I promised to expound on this idea in future writings. When I look around me I see a lot of encouraging signs but I also see a political, military and industrial establishment that is fighting with all its might to squash what I think could be a very powerful merging of forces on both the motivated and moral "left" and "right" sides of the political spectrum. As I have mentioned previously I tend to be libertarian philosophically yet I find myself in agreement with many of those who the mainstream media tells me are on the "other side." Side issues like who is "racist" and the ground zero mosque are used to emotionally separate us and we must not give into such tactics. I think the most important thing for people that really want to change things for the better and lessen the stranglehold of the current corrupt and dependency/warfare model that is the United States of America should do two things. First, find the issues that we can agree upon and secondly as Ghandi instructed us "be the change that you want to see in the world" and spread this idea to everyone you come in contact with. We must remember that we have the ultimate power as individuals and consumers and at the end of the day this nasty little system we've got going survives based on our compliance whether we want to admit that or not. What are the Main Issues we can Agree On?
End the Fed. I think the first issue to be dealt with is the Federal Reserve. Either it needs to be castrated or ended. As I have said before I think we are already on the road to achieving this end but we can't give up now. The keys to ending the Fed in its current form are several fold. The first is to educate the masses on how and when the Fed was formed, what the Fed is, and finally who it ultimately answers to. Secondly, we need to support Congressmen like Ron Paul in their bi-partisan efforts to "Audit the Fed" or audit the gold reserves in Fort Knox. Despite having had considerable support from Congressional Democrats the bill was not passed as Mr. Paul intended and indeed the Fed was given more powers in that laughing stock of a Financial Reform Bill. Many will view this as a setback and in some ways it was; however, it was also a victory in that it served to "awaken" a growing percentage of the citizenry to how things work and to recognize that the Congress does not listen to the will of the people but rather protects the corrupt establishment at all costs. Having the power to create money and credit out of thin air, the Federal Reserve is the ultimate tool of the establishment and the noose around the necks of us serfs. When we have forced the Fed to respond to our inquiries their response in all cases is to grab further power and fight to avoid any disclosures of the actions they have taken in the shadows. Whereas truth can always shine through even the darkest night, lies must be compounded upon themselves indefinitely to maintain themselves. To quote Ghandi yet again: "The wicked can prevail only when they number multitudes, but goodness will rule when embodied to perfection even in one person." This is a man who was able to boot the most powerful empire the world has ever seen using nonviolent methods. I think we can learn a lot from him. End the Warfare State. When 9/11 happened I was working in the World Financial Center. I saw the buildings come down with my own two eyes. I saw the people falling out of the towers. I was scared and traumatized and for a while felt like I needed the government to protect me. Initially I was willing to give up some civil liberties to achieve some sense of comfort. I have since realized the grave error of my ways and I now shudder to think of the police state the establishment is trying to move us toward. Yesterday I read an article about how a Virginia court has upheld the right of police to place a GPS tracking device on a car without a warrant. Article can be found here. Someone tell me how this does not violate the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution? This is really terrifying stuff. What is so hard about getting warrant? Is this the type of country we want to live in? Beyond this, there is a clear trend toward more invasive screening tactics to prevent terrorism. The bottom line is this, if someone wants to blow something up or hurt people they will do it. Furthermore, instead of us sheepishly just giving away whatever self-respect we have left so that Janet Napolitano can scan your naked body before getting on a plane how about we stop invading countries in the Middle East and killing people. Sounds like a good start to me. End the Stranglehold of the Large Banks, Multi-National Corporations and Unproductive and Overpaid Government Workers. When you look at the latest polls about what Americans have faith in at the top of the list is small business and at the bottom are Congress and the Banks. This is perfectly rational as everyone that has observed with an unbiased eye how things have unfolded since the financial crisis occurred has seen that the political establishment and Fed have made it their primary order of business to protect the big banks, big corporations and the overpaid and bloated public sector at the expense of the productive and hardworking citizenry and at the end of the day what they have really sacrificed is our currency (this will become painfully obvious soon enough) and our standing in the rest of the world (we are now seen as the third world banana republic we are). First, the large banks. If there is anything anyone that dislikes the system as it stands should be against it is the TBTF (Too Big To Fail) banks. They played a huge role in destroying the global financial system and the long-term wealth creation mechanism of the United States. Not only that, but as a punishment for their sins they have taken taxpayer bailouts, paid enormous bonuses while 35 million Americans entered the food stamp breadline, fought real reform every step of the way (successfully I might add) and the executives have escaped punishment. We protect these banks as if they are some sort of national treasure. The one trend that becomes clear when it comes to the banks, the Fed and the power players in Washington D.C. is the more you screw up the more power you get. It is amazingly Orwellian. As far as the Unproductive and Overpaid government sector I am not going to spend much time on it myself. Rather, I ask you to listen to this compelling interview given by Stephen Meister to King World News. One of the key points he makes is that there are 7.9 million public sector union members and that for the first time in 2009 there are now more public union members than private sector union members (7.4 million). More importantly, the private sector workforce is five times as large as the public sector workforce so what you get is a situation where union membership is 34% in the public sector and 7% in the private sector. A lot of "conservatives" like to demonize auto unions and the like but the real issue is the public sector unions. He goes on to point out that at least at a private company there is a profit motive and so if the unions push too far they end up hurting themselves. Not so with a government union since there is no profit motive and their pay is just subsidized by the taxpayer! To summarize, what are we subsidizing? The TBTF banks, the war machine, a growing police state, and public sector unions that keep taking more and more. Everything is completely backwards. We live in and participate in a complete and total insane asylum. Finally, the multi-nationals. As many are starting to understand we do not live in a world of "free trade" we live in a world of rigged trade where China manipulates its currency lower to keep the labor arbitrage alive. Due to rising inflation and wages in the coastal areas this is beginning to change, but the key is not to have companies now move from China to Vietnam or Mexico. We need jobs here. Our days of pushing paper around as a nation of traders, lawyers and bureaucrats is OVER. We don't know it yet since the currency crisis hasn't fully shown up in commodity inflation but it is happening underneath the surface. As a result, it is key to get producing jobs back to American shores as soon as possible. That way we will be able to provide for ourselves better after the currency loses much of its purchasing power abroad. This will not be easy but it is necessary. Furthermore, the longer we export such jobs abroad and continue to just collect food stamps, day-trade and file lawsuits the less skills we will have here to do the necessary things when the time comes. Implementing Conscious Capitalism So now we are back full circle to the idea of conscious capitalism. Back in 2002 in my personal journal I wrote a little essay titled "Ambivalence Toward Capitalism." I decided to go back and read it before writing today and one of the lines stuck out to me. I wrote: "In my opinion capitalism is the best form of society that has graced this earth and yet is the worst form of ideology that has ever become so widely accepted." What I meant by this was that I saw the inherent dangers of using a system based in large part on the selfish desires prevalent in mankind. Harnessing the abilities of man to produce, innovate and create to the best of his or her ability by offering rewards is essentially what capitalism does when it works well. However, what has become abundantly clear as of late is that if the society itself is immoral then capitalism will fail to function and it can be as destructive as any other system. This is where I disagree with many libertarians AND big government folks. There is nothing wrong with some limited federal government and there is nothing wrong with capitalism, where we get into problems is when we view either as a panacea or a religion. This is because they are both merely systems devised by imperfect human beings and as such will ultimately reflect the morality and ethics of the human beings interacting within that system. The United States has become in recent years, decadent, aggressive, immoral and brainwashed by television and mainstream media. As such, should we really be surprised that nothing seems to work whether it be Federal government or capitalism? At the end of the day I still think as long as human nature remains the same capitalism is the best thing we've got. The reason it is the best thing we have come up with is because at the end of the day it is not something we came up with. Real capitalism, as opposed to the crony capitalism we have today, consists of the natural state of affairs in complex societies. As is wisely noted over and over in the epic Bhagavad Gita, we run into trouble when we become obsessed with the "fruits of action" since then we would lie, cheat and steal to achieve ones ends. However, those that attempt to demonize capitalism must understand that if the moral base of a society is unchanged it doesn't matter what system is in place it will eventually become corrupt and tyrannical. Therefore, what I think is of paramount importance in today's America is we need to get a grip on reality as it is not as we wish to see it. The first thing is to understand how the financial system operates and how the Federal Reserve controls it. The second thing is to spread this knowledge to everyone you know. The third and final stage, which is the one we are entering in my view, is to be the change you want to see in the world. The most effective way to protest the system is to shed counterfeit money for honest money. This means for everyone that has the means to should sell a certain percent of their dollars and buy physical gold. If we did this the Fed would be history tomorrow. More importantly, once this happens the last thing we should do is accept another fiat currency devised by these same insane academics and central bankers that want to push this ridiculous idea of an SDR on us. Other things people can do is to look at their own lives and be more thoughtful about what bank one uses or what products one buys. I do not bank at the TBTFs and this is a conscious choice. This is conscious capitalism. Buying local goods produced nearby rather than something produced by Asian slave labor is another way. If we do these things based on a sense of morality, then not only can we get back to real capital markets rather than praying to the false god of crony capitalism, but indeed we can change the world through a paradigm shift in our collective consciousness. All the best, Mike | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 06:18 PM PDT | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 06:06 PM PDT | |
Are New Home Prices Rising? Nope, That’s Just Inflation. Posted: 09 Sep 2010 06:02 PM PDT I keep seeing things, scary things, terrifying things characterized as "for the first time ever," like Tyler Durden of zerohedge.com writing that "As per the August 31 DTS statement, the US ended the month with a new all-time record of $13.45 trillion in debt, an increase of $210 billion from the beginning of the month (or $225 billion in public debt, net of intragovernmental holdings). | |
Gold is about understanding the events that got us here and how they will unfold Posted: 09 Sep 2010 06:00 PM PDT | |
A Lack of Fundamental Drive Resolves Oil to Congestion, Breaks Gold Trend Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com September 09, 2010 04:01 PM There were high hopes that the return of speculative liquidity this week (after the extended US holiday and the general return from summer vacation) would encourage a meaningful trend development. Yet, nothing has developed; and lethargy is setting back in. North American Commodity Update Commodities - Energy Despite another Decline From Crude, the Commodity Essentially Unchanged Crude Oil (LS Nymex) - $73.79 // -$0.51 // -0.68% Volatility that is not accompanied by a consistent bearing is simply high-velocity chop. That is the general condition that most speculative based assets currently find themselves in. This is certainly the case with crude, which has maintained an approximate $5 range for the past four weeks. Hopes were high that this would be the week that speculators would be able to revive a trend for the market (bullish or bearish) as trading desks filled out after the extended US holiday en... | |
Rip-Off By The Federal Reserve Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT The Federal Reserve uses euphemistic smoke and mirrors to obscure their operations. With full knowledge the following is not the way the Fed/government describes the system, allow me to offer a different analysis of their mathematical operation. Congress can pay for federal expenses with funds collected from taxes, but Congress is never satisfied with this amount. The desire to buy votes/campaign contributions from special interest groups induces congress-critters to spend more, and this is identified as deficit spending. To create this make-believe money requires the assistance of the Federal Reserve. Congress will give the Fed a security (bill, bond, or note) and the Fed will accept the document as an asset of one of the twelve FR Banks. The Fed will then establish a line of credit for the U.S. government for the same amount and list the liability as Federal Reserve Notes. Presto !! Fiat money has just been created for Congress to spend. Ref: 2009 ... | |
Daily Dispatch: Spend, Then Tax Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT September 09, 2010 | www.CaseyResearch.com Spend, Then Tax Dear Reader, A quick follow-on to yesterday’s edition, when I mentioned in passing that certain members of the eurozone were starting to once again run into strong headwinds. On that topic, our own Bud Conrad shot over a chart this morning showing the dangerous rise in the spread between credit default swaps for the PIIGS versus German government issues (bunds). Here’s the chart, followed by Bud’s quick comment. [LIST] [*]The most interesting is the new European credit collapse. Credit default swaps have returned to the worst levels of the crisis for many of the PIIGS. This morning the Anglo Irish Bank is being divided up because it was about to collapse. In other words, the scenario of us ending the calm in the eye of the storm and moving to sovereign debt crisis is on track in Europe. For more on the topic, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard makes... | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... September 09, 2010 07:07 AM Dear CIGAs, Today's report on jobs, when closely examined, looks like this praying mantas. What is not shown in this report is the 18 wheeler of reality barrelling down the road towards the bug just to the left outside the frame. Jim Sinclair's Commentary Three Jacks is a good hand. $1262 in gold is a replay of the $400 mark in the 70s. ... | |
Improving Jobs Figure Nothing More Than A ?Guestimate? Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... September 09, 2010 09:22 AM Dear CIGAs, The improvement in the jobs figure is based on the following: "For the latest reporting week, nine states didn't file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said." Gold has the exact appearance that it had in the 70s when it battled around $400. When the bulls prevailed gold went directly to $887.50. I was carrying a considerable long position then. Someone at Bache, who cleared for my firm at the time, revealed my account balance and the locals pounded me. Since I never let the margin man call me, I called myself by liquidating 9000 contracts to stay financially whole. As they were pounding me, much like today, Deutsche Bank who was then representing the Saudis came in as... | |
Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:44 PM PDT | |
First Gold Poised For Rare Metals Dominance in Quebec Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT By Claire O’Connor and James West MidasLetter.com Thursday , September 9, 2010 First Gold Exploration began drilling on the Pivert/Rose Rare Metal Property in November 2009 and has seen success in 114 of the 115 holes drilled.(See drill map here). With continuous drilling results to be announced in the months to come, this near-surface rare metals structure is constantly expanding, boasting average drilling grades of 1.13% lithium, 3016 grams per tonne rubidium, 228 grams per tonne tantalum, 127 grams per tonne beryllium, 139 grams per tonne cesium and 73 grams per tonne gallium, calculated from the main drilling zones. While the company’s main goal is to define an open pit production model, it’s the National Instrument 43-101 resource calculation, scheduled to be received in November 2010 that First Gold is most excited about. Lac Pivert and Rose Properties The Lac Pivert and Rose properties in James Bay, Quebec are contiguous and located 50 km so... | |
False Choice: Worse than Sweden Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast September 09, 2010 11:31 AM by Addison Wiggin [LIST] [*] Stockholm Syndrome? Swedish economy ranked more competitive than I.O.U.S.A. [*] Sarnoff, Knuckman on why bulls have the upper hand for now [*] Norwegian pension fund makes a “can’t lose” bet… on Greek sovereign debt [*] Yen near 15-year high against the dollar… why it won’t last [*] Readers see hidden agenda behind the flurry of Form 1099s about to flow… [/LIST] Heh. Has it come to this? Sweden, that notorious bastion of socialism, is a better place to do business than the United States. So it has… at least according to the World Economic Forum (WEF), the outfit that puts on the big annual shindig for the rich and powerful in Davos, Switzerland. Two years ago, the United States were still No. 1 in the WEF’s eyes. Then last year, Switzerland took over the top spot. Now both Sweden and Singapore have vaulted ahead. The WEF s... | |
Silver Quest Resources, The Yukon Gold Rush and Gold and Silver Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT The following is automatically syndicated from Grandich's blog. You can view the original post here. Stay up to date on his model portfolio! September 09, 2010 10:54 AM First and foremost, I’m extremely biased when it comes to SQI-TSX-V as they’re not only a client of mine, but I currently own shares, warrants and options totally 3.5 million shares. And note I will be a seller of part or all of that as early as tomorrow or weeks, months or years from now. Since somewhere around a $.25, I’ve spoken highly about SQI. I know others have taken that to heart and the combination of their interests and mind has led to SQI being on my mind seemingly 24 hours a day. It shows you how old I got since other things use to hold that position. On July 9th, SQI was $.40. Yesterday, it hit $1.05 and is now around $.86. In just two months, the stock rose 150%. What we seen the last 24 hours or so is “A”-typical profit-taking, healthy and could even continue into next we... | |
A Historic Supply Shift That Will Drive Gold Higher and Higher Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT By Chris Weber, editor, The Weber Global Opportunities Report Thursday, September 9, 2010 I've reported many times how the Earth's gold mines have been yielding ever less gold. This is the case even though the price of gold has been soaring over the last decade. And you have to go back that long to find the peak year of new mine production. This happened in 1999. That year, 83.69 million ounces of new gold came from mines. Back in that year, the price of gold was under $300, hitting a low of $256. If someone would have predicted in 1999 that in 2010 the price of gold would reach $1,250, they'd have been laughed at. But had they further said that that much higher price would have caused less gold to be mined than had been the case in 1999, they'd have been thought absolutely crazy. After all, if the price of something soars by 350% ($275 to $1,250) "everyone" knows that more of it will be produced. That's supposed to be basic economics. And yet, exactly the oppo... | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com September 09, 2010 06:17 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold is closing in on its all-time high. A move to a new high would negate the bearish implications from the impulsive decline and set sights on round figures such as 1300, 1400, 1500, etc. Daily RSI has entered overbought territory for the first time since early May (the top was not until late June). Watch the top of the channel for resistance in the event of a move to a new high. Coming under the channel would signal a reversal.... | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com September 09, 2010 06:22 AM Daily Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold is closing in on its all-time high. A move to a new high would negate the bearish implications from the impulsive decline and set sights on round figures such as 1300, 1400, 1500, etc. Daily RSI has entered overbought territory for the first time since early May (the top was not until late June). Watch the top of the channel for resistance in the event of a move to a new high. Coming under the channel would signal a reversal.... | |
Rare Trading Action, Explosion Imminent: James Turk Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT The gold price drifted gently higher during Far East and London trading yesterday... and was almost at $1,260 spot by 8:00 a.m. Eastern time. Then, starting at 8:00 a.m... the gold price spiked to its high of the day [$1,263.40 spot] before a not-for-profit seller showed up moments after the Comex open and dropped gold to it's low of the day [$1,252.70 spot] in the space of 30 minutes. All subsequent rallies met the same fate... and gold closed unchanged from Tuesday. Silver was in positive territory right from the Wednesday open... and, like gold, it spiked up to its high of the day [$20.18 spot] shortly after the Comex open, where it ran into the same not-for-profit seller. The US$ was all over the place in a very tight range... and was not a contributing factor in yesterday's precious metals price activity. The HUI started off in positive territory, but just couldn't hold those gains... and closed down 0.77%... its low tick of the day.... | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT London Gold Market Report from Adrian Ash BullionVault 08:45 ET, Thurs 9 Sept. Gold's "Failed Break" of $1265 Draws Only "Light" Selling, Scrap Flows Slow THE PRICE OF GOLD and silver bullion ticked back early Thursday from yesterday's near-record and 30-month highs to the Dollar, as world stock markets rose and government bonds edged down. The US Dollar rose on the forex market, holding the gold price in Euros just shy of a 10-week high at 31,800 per kilo. Crude oil crept a few cents higher to $75 per barrel. Gold's failure to break June's all-time high above $1265 an ounce on Wednesday "triggered light selling in Asia," says a Japanese metals dealer today. "Physical gold demand remains strong on price dips" however, says Standard Bank's daily note, and "We don't see much sale of gold scrap despite the higher prices," a Hong Kong Gold Dealer tells Reuters. Recycled "scrap gold" flows to the global market outweighed new jewelry demand for the first ti... | |
Is It Deflation Yet?.. EU Fizzling Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:43 PM PDT Is It Deflation Yet? Thursday, September 09, 2010 – by Staff Report Why Deflation Never Had a Chance. Lately we've been hearing a lot of talk about Kondratieff cycles, Elliot Wave super cycle, end of the world, deflation, deflation, deflation. What the deflationists fail to acknowledge is that in a purely fiat monetary system, deflation is a choice, not an inevitability. To put it in simple terms, if a government is willing to sacrifice its currency, there's absolutely no way deflation can take hold in a modern monetary system. It doesn't matter how large the debt contraction is – 10 trillion, 100 trillion, or 1,000 trillion – any government with a purely fiat currency can, with the stroke of a computer key, print enough money to wipe out the debt. Granted they'll destroy the currency by doing so, but at some point we're going to be faced with the choice of print or deflate. I have little doubt Ben Bernanke will choose to throw the dolla... | |
Precious Metals Equity Index Forms a Triple Top, Whats Next? Posted: 09 Sep 2010 05:34 PM PDT | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:57 PM PDT The next few days should be telling ones for both gold and equities. Gold has come off its new highs. But you haven't seen a huge amount of selling either. As our friend Phil Anderson pointed out the other night, you often see two to three days of lower closes after a new high. That gives you a good time to enter into a position. But so far, September hasn't been the historical disaster we've come to expect. Mind you, it's early. Yet outside some whisperings of capital raisings by major European banks which we'll get to in a moment, the Aussie papers are full of seemingly good economic news that just keeps getting better. Yesterday's ray of sunshine came from the labour market. Full time employment in Australia jumped by 53,100 in August, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The jobless rate in the Lucky Country is now just 5.1%. And even the deficit spending laggard states of Victoria and New South Wales managed to buck the trend and add jobs. In fact, with the employment figures so positive, everyone's trying to figure out if the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates again this year to prevent the economy from overheating. This metaphor assumes the economy is machine which can be operated by an engineer (wrong) and that Australia is leading the developed world out of the global recession (highly debateable). Incidentally, the banking issue we referred to is Bloomberg's report that Deutsche Bank is considering selling US$11.4 billion in stock to meet stricter capital requirements imposed from the Basel III round of bank regulations. That sounds sort of ominous. But what does it really mean? According to the article, "Proposed rules under consideration by the Basel Committee may lead banks to raise reserves. Germany's 10 biggest lenders, including Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank AG, may need about 105 billion euros in fresh capital because of new regulations, the Association of German Banks estimated on Sept. 6." Hmm. The Basel rules are designed to boost bank capital in the event of another shock to financial markets. Of course, the stress tests this summer were supposed to ensure that the European banks were just fine and didn't need any more capital. As the Wall Street Journal reported last week, though, the Stress tests did not test how big European banks would react to losses on sovereign bonds, much less an outright default by one of the more distressed debtor nations in Europe. Are the Germans just stealing a march on the rest of the banking sector and stockpiling equity capital against future losses? If they were, it would tell you that there are going to more losses in the European banking sector and that despite a quiet Northern Hemisphere summer, the banking sector remains undercapitalised relative to the losses everyone knows it's sitting on. But who cares. In keeping with our theme of stating the geographically obvious this week, Australia is not Europe, even though parts of Melbourne may sound like parts of Athens. Opa! But when it comes to the quality of bank collateral, Australia has nothing to fear, right? Aussie banks should do just fine under the new Basel rules, according to a Reuter's story that cites research by JP Morgan and Fujitsu. It looks like Basel III will require banks hold up to 9% in Tier 1 capital. That's highly liquid capital like cash and AAA credit that can cover the unexpected losses from a sudden shock. The hope is that an adequately capitalised bank won't have to be bailed out by the government (taxpayers) again. Now, at the risk of sounding like a crank, we'd have to take these research reports with a big lick of salt. We're not accusing the banks or the firms that cover them of lying. After all, most of the people covering bank risk are careful, methodical, if unimaginative people. Their models tell them everything will be fine. It's the models that are rubbish. If one thing has been consistent over the last three years of financial crisis, it's the tendency of professional analysts and policymakers to underestimate risk and overestimate asset quality. Of course that is not a nuanced argument against the quality of the commercial and residential real estate assets of the Aussie baking sector. It's really just a deep suspicion that these guys blew it last time and are going to blow it again. But as ever, we could be wrong. By the way, you know by now that Aussie banks have to borrow about $150 billion a year from overseas lenders to keep the wheels of domestic commerce from squeaking. Does that make the Aussie economy vulnerable to external credit shocks, even if you generously assume banks will not be troubled by asset write downs? Yes! But wait Australia's most obnoxious property spruikers say! Aussie banks did not go on a reckless lending boom. Loan quality here is good. Non-performance figures and delinquency rates are not a concern. And we have borrowers cannot walk away from a mortgage here like they can in America. Even IF Aussie banks had made loans to risky borrowers (which they didn't, of course), those borrowers would be locked into the loans till richer or poorer because of the nature of the loan. Do you believe any of that? Really? And how is it good that someone is locked into paying down an asset which is falling in market value? That just makes the entire housing market less likely to find a clearing price when it does crash because the labour force is essentially immobile and chained to heavily-mortgaged homes. And for what of it's worth, we're reasonably certain there were plenty of loans made to people who will struggle to repay them or service them if prices fall and rates rise. It might not be as egregious as U.S. subprime, but just you wait. And even if you concede (which we don't) that there was no reckless lending boom by the banks, they definitely went on a borrowing boom. This is what John Boyd called progress; confusion at a higher level. The Aussie banks financed the local property boom by going bonkers in the global wholesale funding market when the global cost of capital was cheap. Now, they will have to refinance that boom in a more capital competitive world. But she'll be right! All of which brings us back to gold. It's the canary in the financial coal mine. If it holds its highs even as equities power along, you'll know that the world's banking system is not as well capitalised as you've been led to believe. You'll also know that many of the subterranean rumblings of the last few months may be ready to break loose. Until Monday! Dan Denning | |
[## SEPT MACRO ECONOMIC REPORT DUE WEDDAY the 15th ##] Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:29 PM PDT
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My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2010 Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:22 PM PDT Not a day goes by when I don’t fall down on my knees and thank the heavens that I avoided equities for much of this year (click here for “I’d Rather Get a Poke in the Eye With a Sharp Stick Than Buy Equities” in January at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/january_4__2010.html). Trading in American stocks this week is a sloppy, low volume, conviction free affair. Good thing I focused on the grains, the Canadian and Australian dollars, emerging market equities and debt, junk bonds, precious metals, rare earths, and a few special situations like BIDU, POT, AGU, FCX, BP, RIG, and MOS. I am hoping for a final flush this month which would breaks the 1000 support which has held for 3 ½ months and takes us down to my long standing 950 target for the S&P 500 (click here for “Why There is No Place to Hide in This Sell Off” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/may_21__2010.html ). Gold’s positively virile action recently, where it touched $1,260, just shy of an all time high, tells you that September may not be a pretty picture. Historically, stock markets are weak for the six months going into midterm elections. The April 25 top on the SPX neatly fits that time table. In every election since 1950, markets then rallied for six months after the midterms, setting up for a nice yearend rally. The catalyst for the move will be the removal of the elections themselves as an unknown. With the two political parties at contemptible, diametrical, even hateful extremes, elections these days have a much larger impact on financial markets than they have in the past. End September will also bring the next round of earnings reports, which should be pretty good. After all, firing people to boost productivity and profitability is the winning business model of 2010. A 950 SPX gives you a PE multiple of 10, the lowest it has been for years. For you technicians out there, 950 also happens to be a key Fibonacci level. Mind you, we aren’t re-entering a new bull market. I still believe that we will remain mired in the broad trading range in US stock for years that a GDP growth rate of 2% justifies. There are far tastier fish to fry abroad, like in Chile (ECH) (click here for “Chile is Looking Hot” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-2-2010.html ), Thailand (TF) (click here for “Where to Buy on the Dip” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/may_18__2010.html ), Indonesia (IDX) (click here for “Keep Indonesia on Your Radar” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-16-2010-3.html ), and Poland (EPOL) (click here http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/june-15-20100-vivian-lewis.html ). I have often said that markets will do whatever they have to do to screw the most people. Getting as many as possible maximum short in September, then running the markets up for the rest of the year, fits the bill nicely. To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page. | |
IMF Resumes Direct Gold Dumping, Sells 10 Tons Of The Shiny Metal To Bangladesh Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:15 PM PDT It has been a while since the IMF sold gold directly to sovereign countries. Today that changed, as once again the IMF is either telegraphing it is happy with a gold price of $1,250 (although its sales last year did not prevent gold from surging to record highs as of two days ago), or that it is increasingly poorer (as it is now solely supporting a broke Europe, that would not be surprising). Dow Jones reports that the IMF just sold $403 million dollars, or 10 metric tons, to Bangladesh (yeah Bangladesh). As the IMF has sold 190 tons in off market transactions, and another 90 tons in the open market, the entity that has been pitching the SDR rather aggressively lately may soon hit its 400 ton quota. Although just like the US debt ceiling, that is merely a limit to be broken. Oddly enough, the direct buyers from the IMF continue to be monetary backwaters such as Mauritius, Sri Lanka and India... and now Bangladesh: at least ever more Asian countries are starting to get the gist of what is happening with the dollar. And once China is discovered to be directly or indirectly buying IMF gold, the all bets are off on the gold price hitting $1,600 in under two years. And this will happen even as Bangladesh realizes that it can't, gasp, eat the gold. From Dow Jones
h/t London Dude Trader | |
Guest Post: The Genetics Of Investing - Kill The Messenger Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:02 PM PDT Submitted by Doug Hornig of Casey Research The Genetics Of investing - Kill The Messenger If you had a previously incurable genetic condition and scientists came up with a treatment for it, you’d jump at the chance to take advantage. That’s a no-brainer. But what if you had the opportunity to invest in a company deeply involved in just such cutting-edge research?
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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly Posted: 09 Sep 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold waffled on either side of unchanged in Asia and London before it fell in morning New York trade to as low as $1242.35 by a little after noon EST, but it then climbed back higher in the last hour and a half of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.54%. Silver fell to as low as $19.69 before it also rallied back higher in late trade and ended with a loss of just 0.6%. | |
Market Commentary From Monty Guild Posted: 09 Sep 2010 01:51 PM PDT Jim Sinclair's Commentary Eric specializes in following the money and agrees, as I see it, with Monty. The rally I see in shares, when it comes in a big way, will be a product of Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation. Gold is going into a major move upwards. Do not try and understand what seems contradictory, but is not. Consider all markets as locomotives and never stand in front of it. What I garner from Monty's writings here is that with technical analysis as your guide on each issue, you should consider taking on calls against your short of general equity positions. As far as the long bond is concerned, I am feeling for a top here for different reasons than Monty's position, but that is all semantics. Feeling for a top in long bonds means shorting and seeking to get a lead. A lead is a profit so that the position can in time be on OPM (other people's money). With OPM you can spec all you like. Nothing here contradicts our position expressed today, yesterday, and the many yesterdays before it. Gold will trade at and above $1650.
Dear CIGAs, SOME BULLISH SIGNS FOR U.S. STOCKS Let's take a look at the bullish side of the ledger for U.S. stocks for a change.
GOLD ACTS VERY WELL TECHNICALLY AND FUNDAMENTALLY How do we account for the fact that gold and silver have been strong, even while the rumors of a double dip recession, deflation, a collapse of demand from China, and many other panicky stories have been all over the financial news?
DEMAND PULL INFLATION IS RISING IN THE EMERGING WORLD Strong economic growth in Malaysia, Singapore, China, India, and Brazil is leading to demand pull inflation. In these countries, rising demand leads to rising prices, which create demand pull inflation. Today, many people in the emerging world are enjoying more prosperity and thus they are spending more money. This spending and growth is causing prices to rise as demand exceeds supply. In addition, demand for raw materials from Peru, Columbia, Chile, Thailand, and Indonesia are rising and will continue to grow. On the other hand, Venezuela's self-inflicted implosion and Mexico's ongoing internal war shifts orders from Mexico and Venezuela to more stable neighbors. In order to diminish inflation central bankers in some countries will raise interest rates. The rise in interest rates will attract capital and cause the currency to rise versus the U.S. dollar and the Euro. Rising incomes lead to rising prices, which lead to rising interest rates. This causes their currencies to rise. In the U.S. and European economies the situation is reversed. Economic growth is slow, and standards of living are eroding for the mass of the people. This is creating a non-inflationary atmosphere. We predict that the U.S. dollar decline will continue over the longer term. During this period, we recommend that investors hold cash balances in Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Canadian Dollar, and Brazilian Real. The future of the Australian currency is in doubt. The Labor party won in a delayed result in Australia. They have vowed to proceed with the previously proposed mining tax. We believe the effect will be to slow or stop growth in the Australian mining industry, a very important part of the economy. As an unintended consequence, it will cause more mining companies to sell their properties to the Chinese. The Chinese will minimize the Australian tax by exporting all mined products to their home country and declaring that they made very small profits in Australia and instead take the profits in China. In our opinion, this will have the effect of making the mining tax a smaller revenue producer than expected. SUMMARY GOLD Suffice it to say that we believe as strongly as ever that gold is a wise investment. We hold substantial positions in gold for our clients and have been enjoying the recent price action. In our view, the price action of gold has been superb. It has been rising if the dollar rises, or falls. It has been rising if base metals rise or fall. It has been rising as economic problems beset Europe and many Europeans realize that they must have gold to protect their assets from the depreciation of the Euro. Soon, we expect the same realization will dawn on more citizens of the U.S. and gold will rise to greater highs. We suggest that after gold breaks out of its recent high level consolidation investors and traders focus of quality smaller capitalization gold mining shares which have not sold forward futures against their production. U.S. STOCKS We are optimistic about the demand for U.S. stocks in coming weeks. We believe that there will be a rally as investors see political gridlock ahead. ASIAN FAVORITES We continue to be enthusiastic about our long-term Asian picks: China, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia. We are concerned about higher interest rates in Brazil and will watch to see if this takes money out of stocks into bonds. We remain neutral short term and bullish long term on Brazil.
COLUMBIA, CHILE, AND PERU A new area of interest for us is the three faster growing western countries of South America: Columbia, Chile and Peru. All three are enjoying strong demand for their exports of energy, minerals, farm, and fishing products. Chile is seeing demand for services. All three are demonstrating economic stability and their markets are selling at low price to cash flow. All three have seen substantial decreases of poverty and the rise of a larger and stronger middle class. We believe that all three present good long-term investment opportunities. OIL Seasonal factors and continued demand make us bullish on oil, especially high yielding Canadian oil companies. FOOD Demand for more protein in diets of newly prosperous countries is leading to worldwide pressure to produce more grains as each pound of meat protein requires many pounds of grain. Combine this with the weather problems that the world has faced in 2010, including too much rain in some regions and droughts in others, and it is obvious to us that there are long-term upward pressures on grain prices. We suggest that investors continue to look for opportunities in farm equipment, fertilizer, seed providers, and/or grain futures to participate in this trend. BONDS We still remain bearish on long-term bonds, and especially many municipal bonds in the U.S. We will be happy to look at your municipal bond portfolio and offer our suggestions for free. Please do not hesitate to contact Aubrey Ford or Anthony Danaher at 310-826-8600. Thanks for listening. Monty Guild and Tony Danaher | |
Air-Tite Holders: Direct Fit vs. Black Ring - What's Your Preference? Posted: 09 Sep 2010 12:46 PM PDT Like the title asks, what is your preference for Air-Tite holders? There are two kinds - Direct Fit (where the coin directly fits into the capsule with no foam ring around it) and the Black Ring holders (where there is a ring of black foam that surrounds the coin in the holder). I currently have the Air-Tite holders with the black rings in them to house my brilliant uncirculated 1 ounce GAE's, Maples, Krugs, etc. and am considering buying the Direct Fit holders and transferring the coins over. Does anybody have a preferrence for one versus the other? | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 12:43 PM PDT As I have observed many times, stem cell therapies hold enormous promise for curing disease and repairing tissue. Stem cell science even has the potential to stop or reverse the aging process - at some point. The companies like BioTime Inc. (AMEX:BTIM) that I have recommended to the subscribers of the Breakthrough Technology Alert are expanding their ability to grow the tissues of the human body from their stem cell lines. While stem cells clearly have the capacity to create transformational therapies, the short-run challenge is to solve the details for particular therapies. Fortunately, that challenge is being met. Astonishing new therapies are racing forward. The repair of damaged tissues and the complete replacement of failed organs with new ones grown from compatible stem cells are on a rapidly approaching horizon. And they're coming not a moment too soon. One of the new medical fronts being opened is in the regeneration of damaged bone. By weight, human bone is an amazing material, stronger than steel. It is not only strong, but also somewhat flexible. Bone has an internal structure that takes maximum advantage of the strength of its primary component, calcium phosphate. The unique features of human bone structure have long spawned attempts at biomimetics, which means "mimicking life." For example, the description of the internal structure of the head of the thighbone in the 1850s by German paleontologist Hermann von Meyer influenced architecture. One example is the lattice structure of the Eiffel Tower. Unlike steel structures, bone has one enormous advantage. It is capable of self-repair when damaged. As we age, however, we tend to lose bone density and strength. As we age, we are less able to heal damaged bone. In a sense, you could say the problem is not so much that we age; it is that we lose the ability to regrow. In large part, this is due to the reduction in endogenous stem cells needed to repair the damaged bone. Another part of the problem is a dearth of available growth factors that promote healing in older people. These molecules send signals to cells, telling them to grow and repair damaged bone. The current standard of care for damaged bone repair uses bone grafts donated from a different part of the patient's body. The donor bone is usually taken from the hip, or from one of the leg bones. Of course, this procedure has the disadvantage of creating a second surgery site on the body, along with all of the attendant expenses and risks of complication and infection. A recent study found that after a year, 10% of the patients that have this autograft harvest procedure had clinically significant pain at the donor site. An additional 44% reported some kind of pain at the donor site. Prior to the harvesting procedure, the site was, of course, healthy. In many bone repair procedures, however, these grafts are necessary. A material is required to fill the void in the damaged bone, which also provides an environment for the bone to heal. But one of the most promising new regenerative technologies would eliminate the need for those bone grafts. This technology utilizes a kind of bioactive "mortar" that can be applied to the site of a bone injury. Once applied, the mortar mimics the regenerative behavior of healthy bone mass, thereby repairing the injured site. Think of how a mason slaps mortar between bricks and you get a rough idea of how effective this technology could be. Clinical trials of this process show that it is at least as effective as bone grafts. However, the data also showed fewer infections, fewer serious adverse events and fewer surgical complications. With all potential applications taken into account, this breakthrough product could represent an enormously profitable opportunity for the small biotech company that developed it. In the United States alone, total bone grafting procedures are a $4 billion annual market. Meanwhile, this same product offers promise for treating sports injuries like rotator cuff repairs and chronic tendon problems like tennis elbow or plantar fasciitis. With the huge demographic shift caused by the baby boomer generation's aging, "regenerative therapies" will become an enormous business opportunity. Companies and investors that develop these therapies will strike gold. The Great Age of Regenerative Medicine is upon us. Are you ready? Patrick Cox, | |
Even Bangladesh is buying gold from the IMF Posted: 09 Sep 2010 12:04 PM PDT IMF sells 10 tonnes of gold to Bangladesh Thu Sep 9, 2010 10:34pm GMT WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it sold 10 metric tonnes of gold to the central bank of Bangladesh on Sept. 7, using Tuesday's market prices for the transaction. The IMF said the sale raised $403 million, adding that it was part of 403.3 tonnes approved for sale by its executive board in September 2009. The sales are part of plans adopted last year to diversify the fund's sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014. The IMF fund has already sold 212 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius and the central bank of Sri Lanka, all in November last year. Thursday's sale is the first to a central bank since last November's sales. In a statement, the IMF said that at the end of July a further 88.3 tonnes had been sold through on-market sales that it announced in February. An uncertain outlook for two of the world's major reserve currencies --the dollar and the euro -- is seen providing a spur for central banks to buy gold. Earlier this year there were reports China was prepared to buy gold from the IMF, though those reports were disavowed. While Thursday's sale was modest in size, it drew attention in markets. "It's only 321,000 ounces, the equivalent of 3,000 COMEX contracts," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "But it can, in general, indicate that the Asian central banks continue to buy and add gold into their reserves, which over the long term is a very healthy thing (for gold)." More than 120,000 contracts traded on Thursday, making the IMF sale less than 3 percent of a relatively light trading day on the COMEX exchange in New York. Asian banks' interest in having gold holdings in their reserves offers support for the precious metal's price and may increase as the region's economic might grows. "They prefer to buy on a break lower, but as the power continues to shift east, they continue to buy it and gold continues to head up over the long term," McGhee noted. In after-hours trade following the IMF news, U.S. benchmark gold futures GCZ0 trimmed earlier losses to $1,245.90 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX. A day earlier, gold futures had ran up to their highest level since June 28 at $1,264.70 an ounce, nearing the all-time high for the spot contract at $1,264.80, hit on June 21. http://af.reuters.com/article/metals...22204220100909 | |
US Real Estate Market Sits in the Waiting Room Posted: 09 Sep 2010 11:56 AM PDT Dead guys walking... An article at the Zero Hedge website says Paul Krugman is either "an imbecile or a fraud." We wouldn't go that far. He might be only mildly retarded...or the victim of higher education. He has learned so much about modern economic theory that there is no room left in his brain case for good, old common sense. More on that later in the week.... In the meantime, the Dow closed up 46 points yesterday...not enough to get excited about one way or the other. Oil traded at $74 when they turned off the lights. And gold slipped a little, but still is close to a new record. This time gold approaches its old high in silence. All eyes and ears are focused on the US Treasury market, which many analysts say is in a bubble. Few notice gold creeping up to an all-time high. Neither gold nor Treasuries are really in bubbles - yet. Gold is about where it ought to be, it is about as valuable as it has usually been for the last 2,000 years. And Treasuries? Well, there the story is more complicated. But here's something interesting: 30 years ago, 30 year US bonds gave you a double-digit yield. Now, they give you less than half that much. And short-term loans to the government give you a yield with almost no digits at all. Thirty years ago, the fellow running the Fed - Paul Volcker - worked to lower inflation. The current occupant of that post - Ben Bernanke - labors to raise inflation. Thirty years ago, a wise investor should have taken Volcker at his word and bought US Treasury bonds. What's a wise investor to do now? Take Ben Bernanke at his word and sell them? Maybe. We will leave the question dangling...and turn to real estate. Let's imagine that Ben Bernanke succeeds. Let's imagine that he nudges consumer price inflation upwards. What happens to mortgage rates? Well, they go up too. Then, what happens to the housing market? Ooh la la... Housing would be a dead guy walking. There are millions of people who are not buying already - even with the lowest rates since the Eisenhower era. Imagine all those who will not be buying at higher rates! But many people think real estate has bottomed out. One of our colleagues posed the issue yesterday: "I think we're seeing the bottom of the real estate market. There are deals out there. Now is the time to act." He was proposing to buy an office building in Baltimore. It had been offered to us for $2.2 million two years ago. We passed. Now it is available at $1.5 million. We will offer $1.1. "Maybe the downturn is over and maybe it isn't," we replied, with our customary helpful assurance. "But why not wait? If prices are going up, they probably won't go up by much...and not fast. There's too much inventory coming onto the market. "So why not wait and see? If the market steadies...or rises...you won't give up much. If, on the other hand, it goes down...you could get a much better deal by waiting." As near as we can tell, the real estate market is just waiting. It doesn't know whether to go up or down. Some areas are cheap - Detroit, Las Vegas, California. And some areas have barely dropped at all - such as Washington, DC, where the zombies live. Also, there can be a big difference depending on what kind of property you are looking for. There are buyers at the top and the bottom, but not at the middle. At the bottom of the market are the bargain hunters - bidding on what they consider good deals. At the bottom and lower part of the middle of the market there are also people taking advantage of record low interest rates. They do the math - but only on a month-to-month basis. At today's low rates they can buy a mortgaged house and make a reasonable monthly payment. What do they have to lose? They need a place to live. There are buyers, too, for properties at the top end. Rich buyers still have money - though not as much as they had three years ago. They still buy the properties they want when they want - though they may pay less. The problem, according to our sources, is in the middle. Couples with two incomes. People who need substantial mortgages, but are thoughtful about their money. People who see a house as a substantial part of their assets and the purchase as an investment decision as well as the choice of a place to live. They don't want to make a mistake. Is it a mistake to buy now? They're not sure. So they play it cool. They don't want to put down a big down payment and then find it wiped out as the market slouches again. David Lionhardt in The New York Times: Others argue that the worst is over. As Karl Case, the eminent real estate economist (and the Case in the Case-Shiller price index), recently wrote, "Buying a house now can make a lot of sense." No one doubts that prices rose roughly with incomes from 1970 to 2000. The issue is whether that period was an exception. Housing bears like Barry Ritholtz, an investment researcher and popular blogger, say it was. The government was adding new tax breaks for homeownership, and interest rates were falling. These trends won't repeat themselves, the bears say. As evidence, they can point to a historical data series collected by Mr. Case's longtime collaborator, Robert Shiller. It suggests that house prices rose no faster than inflation for much of the last century. The pattern makes some intuitive sense, too. As people become richer, they spend a shrinking share of their income on the basics. Think of it this way: someone who gets a big raise doesn't usually spend it on groceries. You can see how shelter seems as if it might also qualify as a staple and, like food, would account for a shrinking share of consumer spending over time. In that case, house prices should rise at about the same rate as general inflation and well below incomes. Here's the scary thing, at least for homeowners: if this view is correct, house prices may still be overvalued by something like 30 percent. That's roughly the gap between average household income growth and inflation over the last generation. It's also the overvaluation suggested by Mr. Shiller's historical index. Today, it is around 130, which is way down from the 2006 bubble peak of 203. But it's still far above the 1890 to 1970 average of 94. In effect, the bears are arguing that housing was in a multidecade bubble and has now entered a multidecade slump. And more thoughts... Zombies, zombies and more zombies... A friend offered a sober explanation for so many zombies: "People are not idiots. In primitive societies, smart people always looked for the easiest way to get the calories they needed. Now, they always look for the easiest ways to get ahead. So, it is perfectly natural that they look for ways to take advantage of the system, whatever it is. "I knew a fellow who had survived the Nazi death camps. He told me that the secret to surviving in such a situation is to be as close to the kitchen as possible. The further you got from the kitchen, the less food you got. You needed the heat of the kitchen...and the food...to survive. "People who got inside work in the Soviet gulags, for example, survived at a much higher rate than those who had to go out into the fields and forests. The guys who had to work outside were dead guys walking. They couldn't get enough calories to survive. The guys who worked inside didn't need as many calories. "In any society, people have an instinct to stay close to the kitchen. And as government becomes a larger and larger provider...responsible for a larger and larger percentage of the economy...it is more and more important to be close to it...to be close to the kitchen in other words. "That means, getting a government job, for example. Studies all over the world show the same thing; government employees earn from about a third more to twice as much as employees in the private sector. "If you can't get a government job, you try to work as a contractor for the government...or in some government-supported, or government- favored, industry, such as the military or the universities. Or you get your representatives to get you a tax break, or a subsidy, or a grant... "You get close to the kitchen and you survive." *** "Dead guys walking" said a local paper headline. The first "Baltimore Walk of the Dead" took place a few weekends ago, featuring hundreds of "zombies" who did a "zombie walk (and pub crawl)" across downtown Baltimore. "Scores of the recently deceased [pounded] the streets of South Baltimore," said the paper. And apparently there was also a prize for "Best Zombie." This thing is getting out of hand. Regards, Bill Bonner | |
IMF sells 10 tonnes of gold to Bangladesh Posted: 09 Sep 2010 11:54 AM PDT By Glenn Somerville http://af.reuters.com/article/metalsNews/idAFN0922204220100909 WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it sold 10 metric tonnes of gold to the central bank of Bangladesh on Sept. 7, using Tuesday's market prices for the transaction. The IMF said the sale raised $403 million, adding that it was part of 403.3 tonnes approved for sale by its executive board in September 2009. The sales are part of plans adopted last year to diversify the fund's sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014. The IMF fund has already sold 212 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius, and the central bank of Sri Lanka, all in November last year. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php Thursday's sale is the first to a central bank since last November's sales. In a statement, the IMF said that at the end of July a further 88.3 tonnes had been sold through on-market sales that it announced in February. An uncertain outlook for two of the world's major reserve currencies -- the dollar and the euro -- is seen providing a spur for central banks to buy gold. Earlier this year there were reports China was prepared to buy gold from the IMF, though those reports were disavowed. While Thursday's sale was modest in size, it drew attention in markets. "It's only 321,000 ounces, the equivalent of 3,000 COMEX contracts," said Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. "But it can, in general, indicate that the Asian central banks continue to buy and add gold into their reserves, which over the long term is a very healthy thing" for gold. More than 120,000 contracts traded on Thursday, making the IMF sale less than 3 percent of a relatively light trading day on the COMEX exchange in New York. Asian banks' interest in having gold holdings in their reserves offers support for the precious metal's price and may increase as the region's economic might grows. "They prefer to buy on a break lower, but as the power continues to shift east, they continue to buy it and gold continues to head up over the long term," McGhee noted. In after-hours trade following the IMF news, U.S. benchmark gold futures GCZ0 trimmed earlier losses to $1,245.90 an ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX. A day earlier, gold futures had ran up to their highest level since June 28 at $1,264.70 an ounce, nearing the all-time high for the spot contract at $1,264.80, hit on June 21. * * * Toronto Resource Investment Conference The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 11:27 AM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1249.70Change : (5.90) or -0.5%Silver Price Close Today : 19.780Change : (0.198) cents or -1.0%Platinum Price Close Today : 1548.00Change : -10.00 or... This is a summary only. Visit GOLDPRICE.ORG for the full article, gold price charts in ounces grams and kilos in 23 national currencies, and more! | |
The U.S. Will Never, Ever Catch China in Clean Energy - Not a Reason to Stop Investing Posted: 09 Sep 2010 11:06 AM PDT Doc Econ submits:
Complete Story » | |
European Sovereign Debt: Default Now or Default Later? Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:16 AM PDT Garrick Hileman submits: If you're following the ongoing European sovereign debt and banking crisis, expect to hear increasing discussion of whether eurozone countries should "default now or default later?" Eurozone Up Against The Ropes (Again) Complete Story » | |
Thursday ETF Wrap-Up: EPP Surges, JJC Falls Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:16 AM PDT ETF Database submits: After starting the day higher, U.S. equity markets fell back during Thursday trading but still managed to finish the day in the green. The S&P 500 led on the upside with a gain of 0.5% while the Nasdaq and the Dow both gained 0.3%. Commodities fell back on the day with oil and gold both retreating roughly 0.8% while U.S. Treasury securities continued their decline with the 10-Year note’s yield surging to 2.76% and the 2 year rising to 0.56% as investors embraced risky assets. The big movers of the day were reports out of Washington which suggested that the U.S. economic situation may be improving slightly. The trade deficit shrank by 14% in July thanks to a 1.8% boost in exports and a similar loss in imports. “The rise in exports supports the view that the recovery in manufacturing is alive and well, while the decline in imports suggests that the consumer is still focused on boosting savings, not spending,” economist Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities wrote in an email. Possibly thanks to this surge in exports, the weekly jobless claims declined modestly by 27,000 to 451,000 for the week; a far bigger decrease than analyst estimates which had projected jobless claims of 470,000. However, some cautioned that this may just be the result of the holiday shortened week and that this drop may nothing more than a Labor Day anomaly. Complete Story » | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:06 AM PDT Gold eases after upbeat jobs report The COMEX December gold futures contract closed down $6.60 Thursday at $1250.90, trading between $1243.50 and $1260.50 September 9, p.m. excerpts: see full news, 24-hr newswire… September 9th's audio MarketMinute | |
Posted: 09 Sep 2010 10:04 AM PDT Bondsquawk submits: By Rom Badilla Treasury prices fell, pushing yields higher and stocks ended in the green for a second day as improved jobless claims and narrowed trade deficit eased concerns about the U.S. economic recovery. Albeit at an elevated level, jobless claims declined, giving investors an increased appetite for stocks. The recent flood of corporate debt to the markets further steered investors from Treasuries. The euro weakened, gold and crude spot prices declined. Complete Story » | |
This is a critical level for gold Posted: 09 Sep 2010 09:32 AM PDT From Bespoke Investment Group: Since bottoming at the end of July, gold has rallied about $100/ounce. As shown below, the metal is now trying to break through its June highs. Gold got within a dollar and change of that high today before pulling back about $7. Needless to say, the next few days will be important for gold. If it can... Read full article... More on gold: How to know if you own enough gold "Dr. Doom" Roubini: The U.S. dollar will beat gold now Amazing story of an Asian nation that's going on the gold standard |
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