Gold World News Flash |
- Ahead of the FOMC
- The Depression Outlook, Revisited
- Update on Junior Golds and Junior Silvers
- Monetary Cards on the Table
- Paper-Gold Investment Portfolio
- NXP Semi's IPO: $4.5 Billion in Debt Makes the Underlying Business Irrelevant
- Gold Prepares To Make Yet Another All Time High
- Gold Doesnt Run Its Own Course
- Lacklustre Payroll Numbers Remind Traders How Weak US Economy Really is
- Jim?s Mailbox
- When Will Financial Armageddon Begin?
- World War III
- John Licata: Consolidation Coming to All Commodities
- Got Gold Report China Goes for the Gold
- To Infinity...And Beyond!
- Gold Exceptionally Bearish
- Crude Oil May Consolidate, Gold Streak Reaches Nine Sessions
- Dr. Stock in Africa
- Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly Before Fed Day
- Inventory Fraud Increases in Silver Market
- Summer Sale on Gold Stocks
- Summer Sale on Gold Stocks
- Precious Metals Market Report
- America's Most Beautiful Park To Be Sold Off?
- The Story Of Currency Induced Cost Push Hyperinflation In Three Chapters
- Good thing Iran hasn't the wit to buy gold and take delivery
- Good thing Iran hasn't the wit to buy gold and take delivery
- Algorithmic Crop Circles Redux - Rise Of The Stock Market Machines Part 2
- Gold Market Repeating Pattern of 2009
- The Economic Recovery Flop
- Matt Simmons Dies at 67
- Inflation Or Deflation? Chris Martenson Says "Yes"
- Expect Frustrating Lack of Direction From Silver and Gold Prices, Because it is August
- Gallup Predicts A Ruling Party Rout In The Midterms Based On Obama's Popularity Rating
- "Unfavorable Market Conditions" - KKR Pulls US Offering
- MONDAY Market Excerpts
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:52 PM PDT The Fed meeting tomorrow will most likely result in an announcement of MBS proceeds reinvestment into Tsys, in our opinion. This expectation is shared by a number of market commentators, including Goldman Sachs's Jan Hatzius. The Fed may not have the will or political ability to expand its balance sheet further (especially after conducting discount rate hikes and test liquidity withdrawals amid pervasive tightening/policy normalization talk just 2-3 months ago), but it does to prevent its balance sheet from shrinking. This is also a first step toward all-out asset purchasing/QE in the latter end of the year if the economic picture continues to deteriorate. The Dollar Index bounced off its 61.8% fibo retracement, which also coincided with early 2010 support levels, and reclaimed its 200d on a closing basis. It has been declining primarily because of 1. decoupling and 2. dovish Fed expectations. The decoupling thesis is a bit of a circular argument, as a rising USD environment causes foreign bank credit access to seize up and leads to a positive-feedback USD mismatch. Additionally, the US consumer remains the backbone to the global economy, and if the US economy continues declining, expect China's, Japan's, Eurozone's, etc to follow suit. Again, their banks (as are ours) are dependent on a falling USD. As for FOMC expectations, the reinvestment of MBS proceeds has been largely priced in, if 10yr yields/USDJPY are any indication. Continued deterioration of the USD by the FOMC's statements will require more-than-expected dovishness. If the 61.8% fibo level can hold after the Fed statement tomorrow afternoon, we expect the Dollar Index to begin another strong surge up. The EURUSD (the biggest cross component of the Dollar Index) sold off from its significant 1.33 resistance level (March & April lows) today, selling back to the 38.2% fibo level around 1.31. If this level doesn't hold, look out below for the euro. However, we expect a bounce from this level to 1.35, which coincides with the 50% fibo retracement as well as the 200d. From there, we expect a plunging EURUSD and a resumption of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. EURAUD is an important cross to watch as it coils in its symmetrical triangle. Its corr to equity vol (as well as to inverse equity as shown via the SDS ETF proxy below) is significant to all assets. If this thing breaks out, watch out below in risk assets. Speaking of AUDUSD, it is breaking down from its rising wedge. A retest of the 200d may be in order for the Aussie cross, and if the SSEC resumes its downtrend, the AUDUSD could be putting in a top. Too early to tell but bearish looking in the near term. Cable found selling at its 61.8% fibo level, as expected in the previous post. Could be beginning to put in a top. If 1.58 breaks on a closing basis, a trip down to the 200d could be next. In the short term, 1.58 should act as support and GBPUSD might find some buying around there. Again, we think GBPUSD is topping while EURUSD has some room to run before topping and expect EUR to outperform GBP. So is it going to be short USD/long risk or long USD/short risk? We are clearly at pivotal points (in between 200d & 61.8 fibo level on DX and in between 200d and summer highs on SPX), but the following chart of the VIX below suggests vol is about to expand, which suggests the 61.8 level on the USD index will hold and that the majors and equity indices are primed for reversal. This also suggests EUR & GBP vs CAD & AUD are going to outperform. The Bollinger Band VIX trade has been one of the most reliable setups of the last couple years. |
The Depression Outlook, Revisited Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:14 PM PDT Towards the end of 2008 and during the first two months of 2009, we laid out our case for the second great depression of the past 100 years. In a nutshell, our thinking was that there are two fundamental prerequisites for a depression within a semi-free economy, these being a massive credit bubble and a concerted effort by the government to prevent the corrective process from running its natural course after the bubble bursts. |
Update on Junior Golds and Junior Silvers Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:11 PM PDT I maintain two indices for premium subscribers so that we can better track the junior precious metals sector. These four charts should give you a better idea of the current state of the sector. The first chart shows our junior gold index over the last year. The junior gold index consists of 25 companies, most of which are in the neighborhood of $100-$600 million in market cap. How a billion dollar company is a junior, is beyond me. |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:06 PM PDT |
Paper-Gold Investment Portfolio Posted: 09 Aug 2010 06:02 PM PDT I was looking at July's slide in the price of gold and silver versus the rise in the prices of equities through, in a surprising literary turn of phrase, the prism of insane fiscal and monetary policies, and wondering to myself "What is that supposed to mean, prism? And does it mean that the doctor still doesn't have my medications adjusted correctly, and soon I will again be hearing voices in my head saying, 'Burn! Burn everything!'?" |
NXP Semi's IPO: $4.5 Billion in Debt Makes the Underlying Business Irrelevant Posted: 09 Aug 2010 05:56 PM PDT Bill Simpson submits: This analysis of NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was provided to TradingIPOs subscribers in advance of its Friday, August 6 IPO. NXP priced 34 million shares for $14 each, raising $476 million. It had expected shares to sell for $18 to $21. ____________ Complete Story » |
Gold Prepares To Make Yet Another All Time High Posted: 09 Aug 2010 05:48 PM PDT |
Gold Doesnt Run Its Own Course Posted: 09 Aug 2010 05:24 PM PDT |
Lacklustre Payroll Numbers Remind Traders How Weak US Economy Really is Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... August 06, 2010 12:43 PM Dear CIGAs, Do you remember how not that long ago, bad economic news sent the Dollar sharply higher on the crosses? That has all changed (once again for now) with today's lacklustre payroll number reminding traders just how weak the US economy really is. Couple that with very clear messages coming out of the Fed, and investors/traders are convinced that monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative as far out as the eye can see. Translation low interest rate environment and continued Quantitative Easing. To say that this is Dollar negative is an understatement the reality is that anyone with the least bit of financial acumen can see that there is nothing left to support the Dollar nothing. A nation running deficits with so many zeroes behind the accounting entry that the page is not wide enough to contain the numbers and one which is seemingly not the least bit interested in doing anything to serio... |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... August 07, 2010 03:34 PM The Rising Cost of Food CIGA Eric No Bees, No Bats, No Food for main street affordable, Phenomenal rise in Food Costs. Add that to a major point in the HOT/DRY cycle pending, and eatables have only one way to go, up. However food and energy does not count in the standard inflationary figures, because you and I do not use them. Jim Headline: Rising coffee prices spell a higher cost for that cuppa joe Getting caffeinated is going to get costlier. The J.M. Smucker Co. just bumped up the price of most Folgers, Dunkin' Donuts, Millstone and Folger Gourmet Selections coffees that are sold retail IN THE U.S., according to Reuters. The approximate nine percent hike is due to ongoing increases in the cost of green coffee beans. Headline: Bacon Price Surge May Last Through August as Herd Cutbacks Tighten Supply Bacon lovers in the U.S. are paying record prices during the seasonal summer peak for consumption, and co... |
When Will Financial Armageddon Begin? Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT View the original post at jsmineset.com... August 09, 2010 07:52 AM Dear CIGAs, A little more than two years ago, economist John Williams of shadowstats.com predicted a "severe recession" was coming and soon. At the time, I was working as an investigative correspondent for CNN. I interviewed Williams for a story about the coming financial crisis. Most so-called experts, at the time, did not see the financial meltdown coming, let alone that all the banks were in trouble. Williams' assessment of the economy was spot on in 2008. I don't see how you can characterize what we have now as anything but a "severe recession." Accurate information is the first and foremost reason to use someone as a source when you are a journalist. In my experience, what I have gotten from Williams has been stellar. (Click here for the 2008 CNN story featuring Williams and his predictions for the President in 2012.) (Click here for shadowstats.com) Willi... |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT The 5 min. Forecast August 09, 2010 12:33 PM by Addison Wiggin & Ian Mathias [LIST] [*] The first battle in the new global war: Oil tanker bombed in the Strait of Hormuz [*] Bond market issues warning: Double-dip recession on the horizon [*] Yet investor fear at low levels… Parenteau, Sarnoff and Gross explain [*] Currency traders know the drill… dollar sells off facing more QE from the Fed [/LIST] History is a fickle mistress. On July 28, 2010, a big dent appeared on this Japanese oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz: [CENTER] Note to terrorists: These things aren’t made of cardboard. [/CENTER] Nobody noticed for a few days. When discovered, the damage was first thought to have been caused by an earthquake-induced wave. Then it was thought to be the result of a collision. Then, last Wednesday, al-Qaida said, no, it was a bomb. “This heroic operation will have a major effect on the global economy and the oil prices,” beamed the terror... |
John Licata: Consolidation Coming to All Commodities Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT Source: Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report 08/09/2010 "It's no longer just an energy market. It's no longer just a metals market. It's just one commodities market," says John Licata, chief commodity strategist at Blue Phoenix, Inc. John thinks that the lines between commodities will continue to blur as companies diversify their metals and minerals holdings. He also thinks gold will approach $1,375 by year-end, and that a major uranium producer will soon be snapped up by Asian interests. It's all in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report. The Gold Report: The price of gold fell almost 5% in July. Do you think this is the time to buy? Or is it a sign the economy has found its feet and that maybe it's time to lighten your gold portfolio? John Licata: I think this is a great time to get back into the gold market. The recent slide is a buying opportunity. We are still facing a very challenging economic environment as evidenced by recent remarks by various U.S. Fe... |
Got Gold Report China Goes for the Gold Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT By Gene Arensberg Esse quam videri – To be rather than to seem. China driving the bullion bus likely means a Chinese “put” in play. HOUSTON – It seems pretty clear to us Vultures that the Chinese, who hold just under $900 billion in U.S. debt, are convinced that the United States has a huge incentive to reduce its debt burden by inflating (devaluing) the greenback over time. Over the past three weeks since our last full Got Gold Report China made it clear to anyone looking that they value gold and silver more than they do “paper.” Multiple news sources say that China opened the Shanghai Gold Exchange to more foreign involvement. (Sound the ‘China Forex Diversification’ and ‘China Embracing the Gold Trade’ klaxons – a new dynamic is unfolding in the bullion markets.) China is encouraging its banks to finance acquisitions in the bullion sector. The Chinese command and control wants its busin... |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT www.preciousmetalstockreview.com August 7, 2010 Anyone who has kids or has been around them whatsoever knows this weeks title is Buzz Lightyears oft repeated phrase. This coming week will be very important as the US Fed meets to discuss interest rates. Chances are near 100% that they will remain in the current range but what is important is that they are likely to announce some sort of second quantitative easing program, adopting Buzz’s phrase, only applying it to money printing. Chances are, they will not make it quite so clear, but it’s very likely that some sort of “program” or “initiative” will be announced. Then again, it seems everyone including the great US business channel is expecting this, so maybe it won’t happen, or maybe it will, but they just won’t tell us about it! What has my antennae piqued though is that the great Giant Squid “bank” has lowered their US economic growth forec... |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com August 09, 2010 07:44 AM 240 Minute Bars Prepared by Jamie Saettele Gold has topped. Please see the latest special report for details. Gold is making its way lower in an impulsive fashion. The short term count has changed slightly. It seems as though the first 5 wave decline ended following a terminal thrust from a triangle. The 3 wave correction may be complete just shy of its 100% extension. I am exceptionally bearish gold from here. Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Monday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosseson Wednesday and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum. He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market. Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream. Send requests to receive his reports via email to [EMAIL="jsaettele@dailyfx.com"]jsaettele@dailyfx.com[/EMAIL].... |
Crude Oil May Consolidate, Gold Streak Reaches Nine Sessions Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:34 PM PDT courtesy of DailyFX.com August 08, 2010 10:51 PM Crude oil may consolidate as abundant supplies cap prices below the mid-$80’s. Gold’s streak of sessions without losses is at nine. Commodities – Energy Crude Oil May Consolidate Crude Oil (WTI) $81.05 // +$0.35 // +0.43% Commentary: Last week saw crude oil advance over the $80 level for the first time since May. Traders took profits on Friday, however, after U.S. nonfarm payroll data came out weaker than expected. This week is looking rather light on the U.S. economic front. The FOMC will make its rate decision on Tuesday, but no significant actions are expected from the central bank. Initial jobless claims on Thursday always bear watching, and retail sales on Friday are notable as well. Traders will be looking to the DOE inventory report on Wednesday to see if U.S. inventories, which are already at 10-year highs, continue to swiftly move higher. With oil prices closer to the top of an 11-month range tha... |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:18 PM PDT The U.S. dollar is falling because it is fundamentally dishonest money. But rather than prove that today, we'll begin with a man sleeping soundly a camp cot at a mining site in Botswana and show why his visit - and the opportunity he was investigating - is tied directly to the dollar's dishonesty. The man is Dr. Alex Cowie, or Dr. Stock as we call him around the offices when he's here and not chasing up some geologist over coffee in the CBD. You may know him as the editor of Diggers and Drillers. For the first time in a month we had the chance to catch up last night in a quiet office and talk about what he saw in Africa. He's been a busy man since, then, visiting a small silver company in Queensland and pounding beers/comparing notes with the miners at the Diggers and Dealers conference in Kalgoorlie. "I wouldn't say it was uncomfortable but there isn't much luxury at a mine site. I had spaghetti hoops for dinner (warm), and slept in a tent on a cot. The one nice luxury was a hot shower heated by a log fire," he told us. It's our experience that companies looking for favourable coverage from an investment writer don't spare many expenses. They will break out the liquor, five-star dinners, and late-night company if necessary. But those companies are usually more interested in self-promotion than opening a mine and running it profitably. Poor old Alex ran into a serious company with a serious proposition, so there was no drinking on the mine site and certainly no prostitution. The company paid for transportation to and from the site, the aforementioned spaghetti hoop dinner, and the luxury of a hot shower. He came back impressed with the operation and the cost-consciousness of the management team, and grateful for the independence that comes with being able to investigate the stories you want and report on them honestly. Your editor tends to take a top-down view of investment markets. We told Alex earlier this year that he'd have the hardest job at the company. Inflation...deflation...bubbles...busts...the RSPT...the MRRT...all of these make it very hard to forecast sustainable commodity price trends and then suss out which Australian companies are actually ready to profit from them today. But so far so good. For the full story on how he does it, you'll have to read about the BMAC Filter. And if Alex's research is as promising as it looks (and has been recently) the companies he's recommending could do well right away, given the chat we're about to show you. A big factor in the immediate fortunes of resource investors will be the direction of the U.S. dollar. And to provide you with some crude insight to that, check out the chart below we made this morning. It's a ten-year chart of the U.S. dollar index with a 50-day moving average (the blue line) and a 200-day moving average (the red line). You'll also find red circles every-time the moving averages cross. What does it all mean? Well, we should first say why we bothered building the chart in the first place. The obvious answer is that oil is above $80 and gold back above $1,200. Both of these qualify as "not dollar" trades. That is, the strength in commodity prices, lately at least, is as much about a weak dollar as it is strong commodities. For example it is hard to argue that oil should be going a lot higher for fundamental reasons. By "fundamental reasons" we mean economic growth worldwide. If Japan, America, and Europe are struggling their way out of low growth, would you expect the demand for energy to grow? And if you think China is going to make up the difference, think again! Yesterday's surprising news, which was negative for Chinese stocks today - is that China has ordered 2,087 factories, steel mills and cement producers to close for using energy inefficiently. Does this make you wonder, by the way, if production in China could fall dramatically much more quickly than anyone expects? If the State has been subsidising inefficient producers for the sake of employment, and then suddenly decides to shut them all down, how much industrial activity will be sustainable (profitable) without State support or with real energy prices? But back to oil and the dollar. If oil is rising partly because the dollar is falling, how much further will the dollar fall? The flipside to that, which we won't take up today, is how much further will oil and gold rise? But to the chart! Over the last ten years, there have been 11 times when the 50-day moving average crossed the 200-day moving average. When the 50-day MA crosses above the 200-day MA it is generally bullish. When it crosses below, it's generally bearish. This is all from a technical perspective and does not reflect in any way our confidence in the dollar's fundamentals (we have none). The chart below shows that the dollar index had declined to the point where it trades at its 200-day MA of 80.71. The 50-day MA is still considerably higher than the 200-day MA but has recently turned down. That said, in early 2009 when the dollar index crossed below its 200-day MA, the 50-day MA turned down viciously and the rout was on. This coincided with the big run in "risk assets", commodities, and global equities. An armchair chartist/trader might see bigger commodity moves in the offing on further dollar weakness. You'd have to assume that something would cause that weakness...something like higher unemployment, falling house prices, and more quantitative easing from the Fed. But assuming your assumption was right; would you have a trade based on dollar weakness? We put that question to our professional trader and chartist, Slipstream Trader editor Murray Dawes. As is his wont, he replied with his own chart and the commentary to go with it. You'll find both below. As you'll see, Murray is one of those rare breeds who combines a trader's mentality with a big-picture understanding of the economy and the market. It's a weird hybrid that we don't encounter often, like the Platypus (both reptile and mammal), but it works! "To gain a better insight into what are the key levels in the US Dollar index you actually have to go back further in time," Murray begins. "This is a weekly chart of the US Dollar index going back 25 years. It is quite clear when looking at this chart that the 78-81 level in the US Dollar index is incredibly important. There have been five major lows created between 78-81 since 1990. I would expect to see an intermediate low created in this zone in the next few weeks. This would correspond to my expectation of seeing an intermediate high in the Equity markets in this time frame." "Currently the short and intermediate trends are down with the US Dollar index below its 10 Day MA and the 10 day MA below the 35 day MA. But as long as the 10 week MA remains above the 40 week MA we have to say the US Dollar is in long term uptrend. Therefore we are in a situation of a long term uptrend and a short and intermediate downtrend." " In this situation you are looking for a low to be formed and a resumption of the uptrend once the short and intermediate trends turn back up. This will not occur until the 10 day MA has crossed over the 35 day MA to the upside. That would not occur until the price had recovered to c. 83. Also the 200 day MA is currently at a price of c. 82. We really need to see a bounce in the US Dollar index to above 82-83 before we could become bullish on the index." "It is far too dangerous to try and short the US Dollar index here while it is so oversold and so close to very major support. The smarter play is to be patient and wait for a reversal signal in this 78-81 area and then ride the short squeeze." To read more about Murray's trading method, you'll have to know more about the Slipstream Trader. As for the dollar being weak short-term but strong longer-term, that makes sense to us in a world of relative values. A weak dollar is the victim of unsound money and traders anticipating more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve (although not as soon as tomorrow's Federal Open Market Committee meeting). A stronger long-term dollar would have to be the beneficiary of more euro weakness related to more Euro debt woes. The euro debt woes are off the boil. The American economy woes are on full boil. Tomorrow, we'll boil away all the extraneous issues and define what honest money is, why we don't have it, and what you should do about it. Until then! Dan Denning |
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Slightly Before Fed Day Posted: 09 Aug 2010 04:00 PM PDT Gold saw a $7.50 gain at $1209.70 in Asia, but it then fell back off in London and New York and ended near its late session low of $1198.95 with a loss of 0.15%. Silver climbed almost 1% to as high as $18.56 before it also fell back off and ended near its late session low of $18.212 with a loss of 0.81%. |
Inventory Fraud Increases in Silver Market Posted: 09 Aug 2010 03:20 PM PDT Jeff Nielson submits: When I first began examining supply/demand data on the silver market several years ago, I was somewhat hesitant to form conclusions, as silver (and gold) have traits which are very different than ordinary commodities – which affects supply/demand analysis. The second factor which made such analysis more difficult was that supply and demand are reported much differently than for ordinary commodities. Generally, the supply/demand equation for a commodity is very simple: “supply” is the total amount produced, while “demand” represents consumption. When supply exceeds demand, the remainder is added to inventories, while when demand exceeds supply, the deficit must be taken from inventories. Complete Story » |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 03:06 PM PDT Jason Hamlin submits: Gold has bounced back from the recent correction to reclaim the $1,200 level and looks poised to make new highs in the coming weeks. While the price of gold is just 5% from its all-time nominal high of $1,261, many of the best mining companies are 20% or more below their recent highs. If the next few months play out the way I expect, it could be a very profitable ride for those who establish positions ahead of the herd. With the government ready to release the next round of quantitative easing (QE 2.0) amidst concerns of the economy slowing, we are likely to see continued weakness in the dollar and continued inflation in cash-based markets. While credit-based markets will rightfully continue to deflate, I expect gold and silver prices to begin a powerful new upleg very soon. Complete Story » |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 03:06 PM PDT Jason Hamlin submits: Gold has bounced back from the recent correction to reclaim the $1,200 level and looks poised to make new highs in the coming weeks. While the price of gold is just 5% from its all-time nominal high of $1,261, many of the best mining companies are 20% or more below their recent highs. If the next few months play out the way I expect, it could be a very profitable ride for those who establish positions ahead of the herd. With the government ready to release the next round of quantitative easing (QE 2.0) amidst concerns of the economy slowing, we are likely to see continued weakness in the dollar and continued inflation in cash-based markets. While credit-based markets will rightfully continue to deflate, I expect gold and silver prices to begin a powerful new upleg very soon. Complete Story » |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 03:00 PM PDT By Catherine Austin Fitts This Thursday, I am headed over to Top of the World Farm to join Franklin Sanders of The Moneychanger for the Precious Metals Market Report. After my review of Money & Markets, we will review recent developments in the silver and gold markets. Franklin has just published a fascinating analysis on the [...] |
America's Most Beautiful Park To Be Sold Off? Posted: 09 Aug 2010 02:17 PM PDT Governor Dave Freudenthal is threatening to sell off a chunk of one of America's most beautiful national parks unless the Obama administration comes up with more money to pay for education in the financially beleaguered state. He says he will auction land valued at $125m (£80m) in the Grand Teton national park, one of the country's most stunning wildernesses. Part of the park was donated by John Rockefeller Jr. Other parts belong to the state government including two parcels of land of about 550 hectares (1,360 acres) designated as school trust lands to be "managed for maximum profit" to generate funds for education in Wyoming. |
The Story Of Currency Induced Cost Push Hyperinflation In Three Chapters Posted: 09 Aug 2010 01:58 PM PDT |
Good thing Iran hasn't the wit to buy gold and take delivery Posted: 09 Aug 2010 01:55 PM PDT Iran to Expunge 'Dirty' Dollar and Euro Reserves By Ali Akbar Dareini http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEhR845G1QgnUehgXPZUpQ... TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran announced plans Monday to get rid of its dollar and euro reserves in response to the latest United Nations sanctions over its contested nuclear program. The U.N. Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran in June because of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Tougher unilateral U.S. and European Union sanctions followed in July. "To fight sanctions, we will remove the dollar and euro from our foreign exchange basket and will replace them with (the Iranian) rial and the currency of any country cooperating with us," Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency. "We consider these currencies (dollar and euro) dirty and won't sell oil in dollar and euro," he added. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth The United States and its allies are concerned Iran's continued uranium enrichment could ultimately produce a nuclear weapon. Iran denies this, saying it seeks nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. Rahimi said sanctions won't deter Iran from continuing its nuclear program, and instead they are only helping it achieve technological self-sufficiency in various industries. Rahimi also attacked South Korea, saying Seoul needs to be punished for joining the global coalition of countries sanctioning Iran. "The Koreans also need to be slapped," he was quoted by Fars as saying. Ahmadinejad's government has opened Iran's doors to imports in recent years to keep consumer prices low at the expense protecting of domestic industry, but Rahimi said the government is now planning to increase tariffs on imports. "We will increase tariffs by 200 percent. We will hike it so much so that no one will be able to buy foreign goods. We should not buy the products of our enemies," he said. "Students can force their parents not to buy foreign goods." Rahimi also called Australians "a bunch of cattlemen." Australia joined the 27-member European Union in imposing additional sanctions against Iran. While Iranian economists acknowledge that sanctions are biting and have harmed Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insisted this week that sanctions will instead serve to eradicate the domination of the dollar in global markets. Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php |
Good thing Iran hasn't the wit to buy gold and take delivery Posted: 09 Aug 2010 01:55 PM PDT Iran to Expunge 'Dirty' Dollar and Euro Reserves By Ali Akbar Dareini http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEhR845G1QgnUehgXPZUpQ... TEHRAN, Iran -- Iran announced plans Monday to get rid of its dollar and euro reserves in response to the latest United Nations sanctions over its contested nuclear program. The U.N. Security Council imposed a fourth round of sanctions on Iran in June because of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Tougher unilateral U.S. and European Union sanctions followed in July. "To fight sanctions, we will remove the dollar and euro from our foreign exchange basket and will replace them with (the Iranian) rial and the currency of any country cooperating with us," Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi told Iran's semiofficial Fars news agency. "We consider these currencies (dollar and euro) dirty and won't sell oil in dollar and euro," he added. ... Dispatch continues below ... ADVERTISEMENT Sona Resources Expects Positive Cash Flow from Blackdome, On May 18, 2010, Sona Resources Corp. (TSXV: SYS, Frankfurt: QS7) announced the release of a preliminary economic assessment for gold production at its flagship Blackdome and Elizabeth properties in British Columbia. Sona Executive Chairman Nick Ferris says: "We view this as a baseline scenario for gold production. The project is highly sensitive to the price of gold. A conservative valuation of gold at $1,093 per ounce would result in a pre-tax cash flow of $54 million. The assessment indicates that underground mining at the two sites would recover 183,600 ounces of gold and 62,500 ounces of silver. Permitting and infrastructure are already in place for processing ore at the Blackdome mill, with a 200-tonne per day throughput over an eight-year mine life. Our near-term goal is to continue aggressive exploration at Elizabeth and develop a million-plus-ounce gold resource, commencing production in 2013." For complete information on Sona Resources Corp. please visit: www.SonaResources.com A Canadian gold opportunity ready for growth The United States and its allies are concerned Iran's continued uranium enrichment could ultimately produce a nuclear weapon. Iran denies this, saying it seeks nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes. Rahimi said sanctions won't deter Iran from continuing its nuclear program, and instead they are only helping it achieve technological self-sufficiency in various industries. Rahimi also attacked South Korea, saying Seoul needs to be punished for joining the global coalition of countries sanctioning Iran. "The Koreans also need to be slapped," he was quoted by Fars as saying. Ahmadinejad's government has opened Iran's doors to imports in recent years to keep consumer prices low at the expense protecting of domestic industry, but Rahimi said the government is now planning to increase tariffs on imports. "We will increase tariffs by 200 percent. We will hike it so much so that no one will be able to buy foreign goods. We should not buy the products of our enemies," he said. "Students can force their parents not to buy foreign goods." Rahimi also called Australians "a bunch of cattlemen." Australia joined the 27-member European Union in imposing additional sanctions against Iran. While Iranian economists acknowledge that sanctions are biting and have harmed Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insisted this week that sanctions will instead serve to eradicate the domination of the dollar in global markets. Join GATA here: Toronto Resource Investment Conference The Silver Summit New Orleans Investment Conference * * * Support GATA by purchasing a colorful GATA T-shirt: Or a colorful poster of GATA's full-page ad in The Wall Street Journal on January 31, 2009: http://gata.org/node/wallstreetjournal Or a video disc of GATA's 2005 Gold Rush 21 conference in the Yukon: * * * Help keep GATA going GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: To contribute to GATA, please visit: ADVERTISEMENT Prophecy to Become Coal Producer This Year Prophecy Resource Corp. (TSX.V: PCY) announced on May 11 that it has entered into a mine services agreement with Leighton Asia Ltd. to begin coal production this year. Production will begin with a 250,000-tonne starter pit as planned in August, with production advancing to 2 million tonnes per year in 2011. Prophecy is fully funded to production and its management team includes John Morganti, Arnold Armstrong, and Rob McEwen. For Prophecy's complete press release about its production plans, please visit: http://www.prophecyresource.com/news_2010_may11.php |
Algorithmic Crop Circles Redux - Rise Of The Stock Market Machines Part 2 Posted: 09 Aug 2010 01:30 PM PDT And so it continues: since we first posted Nanex' report on quote stuffing two months ago, and the follow-up analysis, the firm's images of visualizable HFT algorithmic "crop circles" have appeared everywhere, from the pages of Huffington Post to The Atlantic. Which is terrific, as it further raises public awareness of the fact that no matter what one does, the market is now merely a computerized playground in which human traders have no chance of even breaking even in the long run, as the adversary uses consistently illegal means (intentional bid stuffing) to extract every last penny from whoever is left trading. In order to keep the public's, and the SEC's ADD-addled attention on this matter of major significance, we present the latest patterns of illegal computerized quote stuffing as further glaring evidence that the regulators have given up trying to restore any sort of credibility in the market (and people wonder why ICI reports 13 consecutive weeks of mutual funds outflows). Our only hope is that someone will be clever enough to reverse engineer the pattern generators in these algos, and to punish the HFT operators who day after day leave their fingerprints all over the biggest crime in capital market history with complete impunity. As Nanex points out: "The common theme with the charts shown on this page is they are obviously all generated in code and are algorithmic. Some demonstrate bizarre price or size cycling, some demonstrate large burst of quotes in extremely short time frames and some will demonstrate both. In most cases these sequences are from a single exchange with no other exchange quoting in the same time frame." And as long as the SEC refuses to move its finger (yet continue demanding an expansion of its billion dollar budget for porn surfing purposes), Zero Hedge will continue bringing broad public awareness to the crime scene formerly known as the market, with hopes of extinguishing all faith in the concept of fair, free and efficient markets. 08-09-10 08-09-10 08-09-10 08-09-10 08-09-10 08-09-10 08-06-10 08-06-10 Zoomed out view of "Twilight" showing the full 1000 quote per second rate. 08-06-10 08-06-10 08-06-10 08-06-10 Zoomed in view of the "Blue Wave" bid price/size cycling: 08-05-10 08-05-10 Zoomed in view of the "Waste Pool" bidsize cycling: 08-05-10 08-05-10 08-04-10
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Gold Market Repeating Pattern of 2009 Posted: 09 Aug 2010 12:22 PM PDT Jeff Nielson submits: A little over one year ago, I wrote a commentary outlining “two, short-term scenarios for the gold market.” While I acknowledged that there was still the possibility of a mid-summer sell-off, if there was no sell-off by the end of July, I stated that we should expect the “fall rally” to commence earlier than usual, leading to “a run-up to at least $1200/oz”. In fact, there was no sell-off, the gold rally did start earlier than usual – and it ended (for the time being) with a spike above $1200/oz. As I stated in that commentary, I don't make a lot of “short-term predictions” with respect to precious metals, for the obvious reason: “predicting” the movements of a highly-manipulated market is generally a fool's game. However, there are times when market factors and fundamentals stack-up so heavily on one side (or the other) that we can act with reasonable confidence. Complete Story » |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 11:57 AM PDT Realizing the "truth" behind the recovery, but not the "why" Nothing special happened on Friday. The Dow lost 21 points. Gold gained 7, to bring it back over $1,200. Here at The Daily Reckoning our annoying forecast is that gold will fall. So will stocks. It's annoying because 1) both have been going up...and 2) we still think you should go with gold anyway. In short, what we've expected for the last six months hasn't happened - another big drop in equity markets...another powerful wave of fear...and another sell-off in gold. But heck...we can wait. Things always seem to take a surprisingly long time to happen. Then, when they finally happen, you're surprised at how fast they happen. After 18 months and $2.5 trillion in counter-cyclical budget deficits, people have begun to realize that the 'recovery' is a flop. What they haven't realized - yet - is why. But, it's summer...no one is doing too much thinking now. Obama went for a vacation in Maine. Hillary married her daughter. Economists are fishing. Well, we can hope! Meanwhile, Fannie Mae posted its 12th straight quarterly loss. The Post Office is losing $3.5 billion in the third quarter. Social Security is in the red. The New York Times reports: Private employers added 71,000 jobs last month, but those figures were overtaken by the 143,000 cut as the Census wound down. It is also about half the number that economists say is needed to simply accommodate population growth, so the tepid job increases cannot begin to plug the hole created by the loss of more than eight million jobs during the recession. The unemployment rate, in fact, remained stuck at 9.5 percent in July. Government figures released last week confirmed that the American economy slowed in the spring, and the latest jobs numbers suggested that the weakness continued into the early summer. Some economists are talking about the risk of a "double dip" recession, and the political stakes for the Obama administration are rising as the midterm elections tick closer. In remarks made while visiting Gelberg Signs, a small business in Washington, President Obama acknowledged the uneven pace of the economic revival. "The road to recovery doesn't follow a straight line," he said. "Some sectors bounce back faster than others. So what we need to do is push forward. We can't go backwards." Yes, dear reader...we are pushing forward. Obama, Geithner, Summers - none seems to have a very clear idea of what we are pushing forward towards. You may want to forward this message to them. For it is fairly clear to us: we're headed into a long spell of de-leveraging. Not many jobs? Slow consumer spending? Falling house prices? Tumbling stock market? Zombie-like, shuffling economy? Get used to it! The US economy continues its Great Correction. More below... We went to another wedding on Saturday. The affair began in a large medieval church at 4PM... Then, on to the bride's family house - an old, stone farmhouse that had been very well restored, with tennis courts, a pool, gardens... We enjoyed cocktails from 5:30 to 9...and then sat down to dinner. There were about 30 tables of 10 people each. There were speeches by the two fathers - the groom's and the bride's. Diners listened. They laughed. Then, the roar of the crowd gradually overwhelmed the speakers. Jokes were told that we couldn't quite hear. "This is classic," said our dinner companion. "In a big tent like this, it is impossible to hear the speeches, so people begin talking among themselves...then, even those who could hear before can't hear. Pretty soon, no one is paying any attention to the speakers." "Yes," said another person at our table, "the group is too large. But this is like most weddings in this area. I mean, weddings of a certain class of people. Most people in France don't get married like this. This is an important wedding for the area." It was the third important wedding we've been to so far this summer. "And it's so nice to see people get married in the traditional way," she continued. "You know, half the children born in France today are born to women who aren't married. I don't know where this trend is going. Some of them, of course, are in stable, long-term relationships that are supposed to be just like being married. But I don't believe it. I think that if people don't get married, they're just not as committed. They run into a rough patch - and what couple doesn't? - and they go their separate ways. And what is going to happen to the country? With half the people growing up without traditional families? We just don't know, do we? "Did you hear the sermon at the Moreau's wedding last week? I thought it was particularly good. He made the point that a real wedding...that is, a real marriage...is not just a contract between two people. It's a contract with God. It's blessed by God himself...by the community...by nature. Even if you are not exactly a believer, you can understand that marriage is not like a MacDonald's franchise. You get into a business deal and you can decide for yourself what the terms are. But who really decides what the terms are between men and women? We don't even know...certainly not at the beginning of a marriage...and not even at the end. We discover them as we go along. "Marriage is just not something people figure out for themselves...or invent. People - men and women - do not create themselves. Nor do they create the kind of unique and inexplicable union that takes place between them. It's something that was not designed by us. And it's not something we can improve upon. Marriage is a divine thing, not a man-made thing. " *** Now...back to the zombies. The more we think about it, the more we see zombyism creeping, slouching, sneaking into everything. Here's The New York Times, reporting on legions of former employees...still drawing blood from the taxpayers' veins: The haves are retirees who were once state or municipal workers. Their seemingly guaranteed and ever-escalating monthly pension benefits are breaking budgets nationwide. The have-nots are taxpayers who don't have generous pensions. Their 401(k)s or individual retirement accounts have taken a real beating in recent years and are not guaranteed. And soon, many of those people will be paying higher taxes or getting fewer state services as their states put more money aside to cover those pension checks. At stake is at least $1 trillion. That's trillion, with a "t," as in titanic and terrifying. The figure comes from a study by the Pew Center on the States that came out in February. Pew estimated a $1 trillion gap as of fiscal 2008 between what states had promised workers in the way of retiree pension, health care and other benefits and the money they currently had to pay for it all. And some economists say that Pew is too conservative and the problem is two or three times as large. ..Stephen Pincus, a lawyer for the [Colorado state] retirees who have filed suit, estimates that the change will cost pensioners with 30 years of service an average of $165,000 each over the next 20 years. Mr. Justus, 62, who taught math for 29 years in the Denver public schools, says he thinks it could cost him half a million dollars if he lives another 30 years. He also notes that just about all state workers in Colorado do not (and cannot) pay into Social Security, so the pension is all retirees have to live on unless they have other savings. The average retiree in the fund stopped working at the sprightly age of 58 and deposits a check for $2,883 each month. Many of them also got a 3.5 percent annual raise, no matter what inflation was, until the rules changed this year. Private sector retirees who want their own monthly $2,883 check for life, complete with inflation adjustments, would need an immediate fixed annuity if they don't have a pension. A 58-year-old male shopping for one from an A-rated insurance company would have to hand over a minimum of $860,000, according to Craig Hemke of Buyapension.com. A woman would need at least $928,000, because of her longer life expectancy. *** "I'm getting ready to build a house down there where I have a lot on the Chesapeake Bay," said a cousin, visiting us here in France. "But you can't do anything without paying people off. I mean, the engineers and architects and environmental groups...they've all got their little deals. My shoreline has been washed away. In the 10 years that I owned the property, I've lost about 3 feet of shoreline. You know, boats go by...storms...tides...you always get a little erosion. It's a section that is only about 20 feet wide, so I could easily fix it. Just take some rocks and build a breakwater or a bulkhead and let the wild grasses fill in behind it. But I can't do it. I'd have to go through a whole process, and get an engineer's report...and then get a permit. It will cost me thousands of dollars to fix something that I could fix myself for almost nothing. But everybody gets a little piece of the action... "And now they've got these guys they call 'Riverkeepers'... Sounds nice enough. They're volunteers. They don't get paid. They just keep an eye on the rivers and the bay...protecting against pollution and so forth. Some of my friends are "'Riverkeepers.' But they've become a big pain in the neck. Because they come around and watch whatever you're doing. And you know they're going to find something wrong. Something you didn't know about. And then, they can get your project stopped...and maybe held up for years...while you pay engineers and lawyers to sort it out. "And I'll tell you something else they're doing. They have a new rule that says you have to put in a dry well system that puts the rainwater from your roof back into the ground. So, you've got to get that as part of your building permit...including engineers' drawings and so forth according to the specifications. "But they don't make any allowances for soil conditions. And down there, you can run into areas that are thick clay. You can put all the water you want into the ground, but it won't go into the soil. It just sits there and backs up. I've seen some of these holes fill up immediately. Then, they are just big holes of water-soaked gravel." Regards, Bill Bonner |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 11:52 AM PDT Sadly, Matt Simmons, peak oil theorist, energy industry investment banker, and author of "Twilight in the Desert" died at his home in Maine yesterday in an accidental drowning. Some news organizations are reporting the cause of death as a heart attack, but, according to this Bloomberg story, "heart disease" was simply noted as a condition on the death certificate. In recent months, Simmons was best known for a number of rather wild claims about the Gulf oil spill and the future of BP (which may still turn out to be true), however, it is his ground-breaking study of peak oil and more recent work in founding the Ocean Energy Institute (OEI), a group that set out to develop the technology needed to generate energy from the ocean, that he will be remembered for over time. One of his last interviews was with Jim Puplava at Financial Sense Online a week ago. |
Inflation Or Deflation? Chris Martenson Says "Yes" Posted: 09 Aug 2010 11:47 AM PDT Chris Martenson, whose opinions have appeared on Zero Hedge many times previously, was on Tech Ticker recently, presenting the case for why we are currently experiencing both inflation and deflation in various sectors of the economy concurrently. On the deflationary front, Martenson claims that with the 2 Year yielding 0.5% "the Fed can't continue to go forward and expand its balance sheet and so far they've been able to get away with it." As a result Martenson is convinced that once having embarked on counter-deflationary course, the Fed will have no choice but to commit itself to the fullest. Yet the reality is that courtesy of already rising commodity prices various segments of the economy already experiencing an inflationary push. Martenson acknowledges that too: "I am absolutely in the camp that we are seeing inflation in some areas and deflation in others. The continuous commodity index is absolutely screaming inflation at this point in time, but at the same time we are seeing houses decline in price, we are seeing a number of other thing decline which I think is what the Fed is most concerned about at this point in time. I think we are going to see both." So stagflation? "England is already in stagflation and we are dangerously close to it ourselves. We are experiencing both inflation and deflation, and that is squeezing workers even harder than any other condition you can experience because wages are stagnant while the price of goods and services rises" and the biggest asset of the working American, his home keeps declining. It will be up to the Fed to push the needle definitively into either side of the inflation/deflation debate tomorrow, or the whispers over the imminent arrival of stagflation will just keep getting louder. |
Expect Frustrating Lack of Direction From Silver and Gold Prices, Because it is August Posted: 09 Aug 2010 11:40 AM PDT Gold Price Close Today : 1200.70Change : (2.70) or -0.2%Silver Price Close Today : 18.229Change : (0.230) cents or -1.2%Platinum Price Close Today : 1544.70Change : -28.00 or... This is a summary only. Visit GOLDPRICE.ORG for the full article, gold price charts in ounces grams and kilos in 23 national currencies, and more! |
Gallup Predicts A Ruling Party Rout In The Midterms Based On Obama's Popularity Rating Posted: 09 Aug 2010 10:15 AM PDT Gallup presents some troubling statistics for the democrats as we approach mid-term elections (a mere three months away). In a nutshell, the party of a president who has a sub-50% rating into midterms, has lost, on average, 36 seats since 1946. Alternatively, presidents with a popularity rating over 50%, lose just 14. As Gallup says: "The clear implication is that the Democrats are vulnerable to losing a significant number of House seats this fall with Barack Obama's approval rating averaging 45% during the last two full weeks of Gallup Daily tracking. The Republicans would need to gain 40 House seats to retake majority control." Of course, the administration (and its dwindling members) is well-aware of this fact, which is why the next three months will likely see a record amount of pandering, populism and outright manipulation of everything that can be manipulated: that includes mortgages rates, and of course, stocks. Which leads us to observe the calendar of FOMC meetings until November: there are two - tomorrow and September 21. However, for a Fed loosening decision to have a material impact, the September meeting is likely cutting it too close to the election date, as the market will likely not have enough time to digest a favorable outcome, or in turn will be into its reactionary phase by the time November rolls around. Furthermore, the traditionally busy post-Labor day docket will likely mean events on the economic front already have to be in motion by then. Lastly, the fact that the Fed will have just a bare minimum quorum of just four directors through September 10 (at a minimum), means that any decision in the 11 days between then and the 21st will likely be far more problematic than one which has to be taken tomorrow. Which is why from a purely political calendar point of view, tomorrow's Fed meeting is likely seen by the administration as a make or break. The tenuous 40 seat lead which will likely disappear should the current economic trajectory not change, is certainly on the radar for both Obama, and the very independent Federal Reserve. More observations from Gallup:
And below is the empirical evidence: |
"Unfavorable Market Conditions" - KKR Pulls US Offering Posted: 09 Aug 2010 09:55 AM PDT It's official - KKR has pulled its IPO. It appears distribution is actually a relevant metric when it comes to pricing overbloated, DOA PE corpses (especially when the memory of BX and FIG is still fresh). HFTs get an F for pushing the market up 10% on next to negative volume. And since when is a parabolic move up of almost 10% considered "Unfavorable Market Conditions." Just how much bullshit is going on behind the scenes of this market? From just filed 8-K Re: KKR & Co. L.P. Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-166687) |
Posted: 09 Aug 2010 09:52 AM PDT Gold rests ahead of Fed statement The COMEX December gold futures contract closed down $2.70 Monday at $1202.60, trading between $1201.40 and $1212.10. August 9, p.m. excerpts: |
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